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Like Churchill will Boris Johnson defect from the Tories? – politicalbetting.com

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  • FossFoss Posts: 1,632
    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    Dopermean said:

    Phil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    I only drive occasionally but I note the petrol price continues to hover around 130p a litre round here.

    I remember being it 140p back in 2022 and even though the fuel price has remained fairly static it seems not to have helped economic growth that much though it might explain why things aren't quite as bad as some would have us believe.

    https://www.racfoundation.org/data/uk-pump-prices-over-time

    Indeed, we're paying no more for petrol now than we did in 2012 which, with ambient inflation, means a substantial real terms cut.

    I can only imagine how this will be viewed by the Chancellor in terms of a possible rise in fuel duty in the Budget but it's extraordinary to me how little impact this once crucial barometer of our economic fortunes now seems to have.

    I predict they’ll chicken out on fuel duty rises yet again.

    It’s now often more expensive to charge an EV out and about than to fill up with petrol. We’re about 30p cheaper than France.
    One of the small mercies I was thankful for in the last budget.

    Now, imagine Reeves pulls out a real confidence inducing stunner in November. With the red lady out the running, her fortunes could be transformed !
    The EV cost is a combination of high electricity prices and demented ripoff as a standard tactic. Charge at home and it is much, much cheaper.
    Public chargers have to add 20% VAT, whereas at home charging pays 5% VAT as well. One of the problems for the government is that the shift to EVs is going to gut the revenues from fuel taxes, but if they put up VAT on home electricity to compensate it’ll be a political shitshow.

    I imagine there are a bunch of civil servants putting position papers in front of ministers, who are in turn looking at them, going a bit pale & deciding to make it a problem for the next minister to occupy the role.
    that doesn't explain 8p vs 80p/kwhr though, even home charging at peak rates would be 25p

    Then there's the unreliability, taking a deposit on your card then crapping out before final payment leaving you out of pocket even at the 80p rate. From my public charging experience I'd try to use Tesla or EV on the move chargers rather than any others.
    Commercial charging companies do not just have to pay by the kWh / MWh but by the kW / MW. Multiple fast chargers means they might cause sudden demand spikes even if they are unused at other times. The sensible business model is hence is collocate with large scale storage to smooth out their demand spikes. They then also have another potential income source of selling power back to provider during grid demand spikes.
    The price of energy storage coming down will be revolutionary at some point, as it reduces the size of the incoming power cable needed for a given number of chargers.

    I wonder how easy it will be to recycle old EV batteries into applications such as this in future. It wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see Tesla do this first, stripping batteries from retired taxis or written-off cars, whihc will become much more available in the next few years.
    They're starting to do that kind of thing: https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/long-duration-energy-storage/second-life-ev-grid-batteries-succeed
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,768
    DoctorG said:

    On the Rayner stuff, have we now passed the point where if she were to resign from the cabinet, she couldn't now come back Mandelson style? Often with these issues a quick resignation shuts the media up, and after a time on the back benches, an MP can return and do a job at a later date.

    The optics are very poor given the previous comments she has made on tax avoidance/evasion, but it's almost impossible to prove she did this deliberately.

    It's likely now way too far gone for her to be considered a serious candidate for future PM. I'd have agreed with those who thought she would replace Keir Starmer at some point. Personally, I think Starmer will have had enough by 2029, and likely hand onto a successor around a year before the next election.

    From memory, when Hazel Blears paid back money during the MP expenses scandal, I remember her waving a cheque (or imaginary cheque) but think it was capital gains, higher rate stamp duty for second homes didn't exist back them. Don't think the decision to repay made her any more popular

    As was the case with the last government, the media have no intention of dropping stories about individual scandals. It’s going to keep runing until she resigns, so she might as well have stepped down from the Cabinet 48 hours ago.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,191
    edited 10:01AM

    kinabalu said:

    Curtice piece telling us what I think we already knew - Reform is Leave take 2. Same voters, same buttons.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy853rj2kzo

    Well, very much minus the subsidiary ‘Let’s stop all those Polish plumbers taking our jobs cos the EU is racist, and get in our lovely Commonwealthers instead’ button.
    Totally not on the bus.

    Pessimistic view - it could be that these people are set in stone as the biggest voter bloc in a fragmented demos and they're just going to have to have their go.

    "Here, have a Brexit"
    "Grunt, grumble, grunt, grumble"
    "Oh god, still not happy? Ok have a Farage government then."
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,857
  • isamisam Posts: 42,452
    edited 10:02AM
    Scott_xP said:

    @pickardje.bsky.social‬

    “Farage claimed last year to have “bought a house” in his constituency but the property is actually owned in the name of his partner, meaning he legally avoided higher-rate stamp duty on the purchase of an additional home – given he already owns other properties”

    @worgztheowl.bsky.social‬

    In some ways it might be a good strategy for Rayner to resign, take the hit, then repeatedly ask why Farage isn't doing the same.

    Because he hasn’t done anything wrong, nor been acting like the Patron Saint of Paying Taxes for the last decade would be two good reasons
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,594
    Sandpit said:

    Claudia Webbe the latest MP who can’t do basic maths.

    https://x.com/claudiawebbe/status/1963549666403840509

    To paraphrase, assets of billionaires are £620bn, taxing them 3% raises £40bn which funds the entire NHS.

    Err no Claudia, 3% of £620bn is £18.6bn, and the NHS budget is more than £200bn.

    (Assuming of course that the billionaires don’t relocate to Delaware or Dubai, and just happily pay 3% of their wealth every year).

    Ex-MP, she was responsible for the sole Tory gain at the last election.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,307
    Just wondering whether to go to B'ham to see what all these Reform members are like.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,733
    A claim that UK gas produced in the North Sea emits “four times” less carbon dioxide (CO2) than imported liquified natural gas (LNG) featured prominently in both the Guardian and the Daily Telegraph this week.

    https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-north-sea-gas-is-not-four-times-cleaner-than-lng-imports/

    I think I mentioned this 4x thing myself earlier this week - seems it is a misleading stat.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,790
    Leon said:
    What %-age want Israel to govern them?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,857

    Leon said:
    What %-age want Israel to govern them?
    5%
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,711
    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    Dopermean said:

    Phil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    I only drive occasionally but I note the petrol price continues to hover around 130p a litre round here.

    I remember being it 140p back in 2022 and even though the fuel price has remained fairly static it seems not to have helped economic growth that much though it might explain why things aren't quite as bad as some would have us believe.

    https://www.racfoundation.org/data/uk-pump-prices-over-time

    Indeed, we're paying no more for petrol now than we did in 2012 which, with ambient inflation, means a substantial real terms cut.

    I can only imagine how this will be viewed by the Chancellor in terms of a possible rise in fuel duty in the Budget but it's extraordinary to me how little impact this once crucial barometer of our economic fortunes now seems to have.

    I predict they’ll chicken out on fuel duty rises yet again.

    It’s now often more expensive to charge an EV out and about than to fill up with petrol. We’re about 30p cheaper than France.
    One of the small mercies I was thankful for in the last budget.

    Now, imagine Reeves pulls out a real confidence inducing stunner in November. With the red lady out the running, her fortunes could be transformed !
    The EV cost is a combination of high electricity prices and demented ripoff as a standard tactic. Charge at home and it is much, much cheaper.
    Public chargers have to add 20% VAT, whereas at home charging pays 5% VAT as well. One of the problems for the government is that the shift to EVs is going to gut the revenues from fuel taxes, but if they put up VAT on home electricity to compensate it’ll be a political shitshow.

    I imagine there are a bunch of civil servants putting position papers in front of ministers, who are in turn looking at them, going a bit pale & deciding to make it a problem for the next minister to occupy the role.
    that doesn't explain 8p vs 80p/kwhr though, even home charging at peak rates would be 25p

    Then there's the unreliability, taking a deposit on your card then crapping out before final payment leaving you out of pocket even at the 80p rate. From my public charging experience I'd try to use Tesla or EV on the move chargers rather than any others.
    Commercial charging companies do not just have to pay by the kWh / MWh but by the kW / MW. Multiple fast chargers means they might cause sudden demand spikes even if they are unused at other times. The sensible business model is hence is collocate with large scale storage to smooth out their demand spikes. They then also have another potential income source of selling power back to provider during grid demand spikes.
    The price of energy storage coming down will be revolutionary at some point, as it reduces the size of the incoming power cable needed for a given number of chargers.

    I wonder how easy it will be to recycle old EV batteries into applications such as this in future. It wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see Tesla do this first, stripping batteries from retired taxis or written-off cars, whihc will become much more available in the next few years.
    Yes occasionally you still see biased hit pieces against EVs in the media that mention the cost and environmental waste of disposing of batteries. When the reality is most retired battery packs will be perfectly functional for stationary storage, a use case where energy density by weight / volume does not really matter. A quick once over and rehabilitation, whip the cells or modules into a new pack for a second life.
    There are already a number of companies doing this. The price of old batteries packs has actually rise a bit - there is demand for them now.

    100% recycle is becoming the standard for actual disposal - there's an ex-Tesla chap in the US, who started a company to do exactly this. IIRC Tesla uses his services.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,564
    Andy_JS said:

    Just wondering whether to go to B'ham to see what all these Reform members are like.

    I did ask What do people do with their Saturdays?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,191
    Andy_JS said:

    Just wondering whether to go to B'ham to see what all these Reform members are like.

    And report back? Yes please.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,790

    Pulpstar said:

    nico67 said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    ‘ The small conveyancing firm that did Angela Rayner’s Hove house purchase say they gave her no tax advice — they’re not even solicitors and have no tax expertise.

    The advisers who set up her trust (from where the Hove deposit came) say they were not involved in any aspect of the Hove purchase.

    The tax barrister who said she’d underpaid stamp duty was only called in after the matter of how much she should pay became a matter of public controversy.

    So from whom did the Deputy PM seek tax advice on the stamp duty she should pay on the Hove home?’


    https://x.com/afneil/status/1963860046284300503?s=61

    It seems she clearly didn't seek out the best legal advice as presumably that would have been to wait a few months / rewrite the trust so that she wasn't liable for the additional 2nd home tax.
    Once her child turns 18 she wouldn’t have been liable for the increased stamp duty . If she didn’t want to risk losing the flat in Hove she could have paid it and got a refund later.
    Good morning everyone. Much, much brighter this morning, although not for poor Angela Rayner.

    Poor Angela Rayner? Yes, I'm sorry for her. Not only is she going to have to resign, thus, temporarily at least, blighting a career which is otherwise an example to disadvantaged young women but out of her reduced income she is going to have to find a considerable sum of money.
    When did the tax position of second homes change? When did she put her place in Ashton into trust? Seems to me that she might have been caught by regulation change, although I'm quite prepared to be told I'm well up the wrong tree!
    Why are you feeling sorry for her ?

    Crucifying people who own two houses is a feature, not a bug for this gov't.
    Because, as I said, she's dragged herself up by her own bootstraps and now it's all collapsing about her. I don't think she'd ever have made PM but she could have stayed a senior member of the government for as long as she wished, so long as Labour were in power.
    Female
    Northern
    Working class
    Progressed through public sector
    Improved her standing

    Im always amazed that the people who push this line - and rightly - cant apply the same rules to Nadine Dorries
    Nadine is way more OK-looking than Ange, and it's obvious Ange has had too much work done - she can barely speak clearly these days!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,820
    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Incidentally while I'm here.

    There has been an earthquake in Afghanistan. There are credible reports from that country that women and girls trapped under the rubble are being left there and not rescued because the Taliban has decreed that no man can touch a woman he is not related to. Some are being pulled out by their clothes or by other women. But even if pulled out their injuries are not being treated because male doctors are not allowed to treat them.

    They are being left to suffer and die.

    This is not just because of the earthquake. Women are now forbidden from any sort of education or accessing medical care or training as doctors or nurses. So as time passes there will be fewer and fewer women left to provide any sort of medical care at all. Women and girls will simply suffer and die. They are being treated worse than livestock.

    This is what sex-based oppression leads to. Afghan men seem not to be bothered by this aspect of the society they have created and live in.

    There is nothing we can do. Alas. But it is still worth recording one of the utterly abominable ways in which male populations in this world find to torment women.

    I agree.

    How do you feel about deporting female Afghan refugees there?

    As I understand it Reform plans to even return those with settled claims.
    Farage is a charlatan, grifter and liar. He has no concern for women at all. I would not vote for his ghastly party.

    There are very few Afghan women on the boats. But obviously they should not be returned to Afghanistan. There is a charity which helps Afghan women, especially judges, escape. Funded in part by the estimable JK Rowling. There are some other charities which are still trying to do what they can for Afghan women. Taliban leaders send their daughters to Dubai to be educated, I understand. Ghastly hypocrites on top of everything else.
    I have a charming picture in my mind of right-leaning British tax exiles and Taliban leaders chatting at the school gate in some dusty corner of Dubai. Who knows, perhaps they can even solve the world's problems between them. They might find they have a surprising amount in common!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,007
    Leon said:
    Thank goodness every effort is being made to encourage a democratic flowering in Gaza.

    Probably doesn’t take a Palestinian polling expert to state that 0% of Gazans want dozens of them to be blown to buggery day in, day out.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,855
    @LauraBeveridge7

    Laila Cunningham to me: “I’m in two minds about Nadine Dorries’ [defection to Reform].” She’s doesn’t want the Party to become one of “rejects”.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,307
    Very strange.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-afd-candidates-dead-election-b2819180.html

    "Six candidates for Germany’s far-right AfD party die in lead up to election

    Police have said it does not suspect foul play after six AfD candidates have died ahead of the local election for the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia"
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 258
    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @pickardje.bsky.social‬

    “Farage claimed last year to have “bought a house” in his constituency but the property is actually owned in the name of his partner, meaning he legally avoided higher-rate stamp duty on the purchase of an additional home – given he already owns other properties”

    @worgztheowl.bsky.social‬

    In some ways it might be a good strategy for Rayner to resign, take the hit, then repeatedly ask why Farage isn't doing the same.

    Are you so thick that you can’t see the difference between perfectly legal tax efficiency, compared with underpaying tax that is legally due?
    Yes he is that thick.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,726
    edited 10:12AM

    A claim that UK gas produced in the North Sea emits “four times” less carbon dioxide (CO2) than imported liquified natural gas (LNG) featured prominently in both the Guardian and the Daily Telegraph this week.

    https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-north-sea-gas-is-not-four-times-cleaner-than-lng-imports/

    I think I mentioned this 4x thing myself earlier this week - seems it is a misleading stat.

    And do you know what produces infinity times less carbon dioxide than burning imported gas? Not burning gas at all.

    The same people making these silly arguments are also those losing it when you suggest moving to EVs by 2030 or rolling out heat pumps. It's cynical late stage sabotage from those who denied climate change existed 10 years ago.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,682
    Scott_xP said:

    @LauraBeveridge7

    Laila Cunningham to me: “I’m in two minds about Nadine Dorries’ [defection to Reform].” She’s doesn’t want the Party to become one of “rejects”.

    Laila wants only pure career jumpers
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,007
    Andy_JS said:

    Very strange.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-afd-candidates-dead-election-b2819180.html

    "Six candidates for Germany’s far-right AfD party die in lead up to election

    Police have said it does not suspect foul play after six AfD candidates have died ahead of the local election for the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia"

    Shouldn’t have been mucking about with their grandads’ supplies of cyanide capsules.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,781
    Sky

    Investment Minister Poppy Gustaffson to resign today and Rigby is speculating a wider cabinet reshuffle may be on
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,943

    Sandpit said:

    Claudia Webbe the latest MP who can’t do basic maths.

    https://x.com/claudiawebbe/status/1963549666403840509

    To paraphrase, assets of billionaires are £620bn, taxing them 3% raises £40bn which funds the entire NHS.

    Err no Claudia, 3% of £620bn is £18.6bn, and the NHS budget is more than £200bn.

    (Assuming of course that the billionaires don’t relocate to Delaware or Dubai, and just happily pay 3% of their wealth every year).

    Why is it that so many politicians are all at sea when they need to deal with numbers greater than they can do on fingers and toes? The inability to sort out millions from billions from trillions should disqualify them from office, when the job of running the country requires a rudimentary understanding of Big Numbers.
    This is one reason why we should adopt my plan to rebase the currency with every new monarch. If one KCIII pound was worth ten QEII pounds, and one KWV pound would be worth ten KCIII pound, etc, then you would keep the numbers smaller and easier to understand.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,943
    edited 10:17AM
    Leon said:
    5% for Israel, even.

    I think a rapid Israeli occupation after the Hamas attack, followed by an attempt to create a non-Hamas civil authority, would have had at least a chance of creating a better future for both Israel and Gaza.

    Depressing that Hamas still retain so much support from Palestinians not in Gaza, though.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,733

    Sky

    Investment Minister Poppy Gustaffson to resign today and Rigby is speculating a wider cabinet reshuffle may be on

    She's only be there about five minutes!!



  • FossFoss Posts: 1,632

    Sandpit said:

    Claudia Webbe the latest MP who can’t do basic maths.

    https://x.com/claudiawebbe/status/1963549666403840509

    To paraphrase, assets of billionaires are £620bn, taxing them 3% raises £40bn which funds the entire NHS.

    Err no Claudia, 3% of £620bn is £18.6bn, and the NHS budget is more than £200bn.

    (Assuming of course that the billionaires don’t relocate to Delaware or Dubai, and just happily pay 3% of their wealth every year).

    Why is it that so many politicians are all at sea when they need to deal with numbers greater than they can do on fingers and toes? The inability to sort out millions from billions from trillions should disqualify them from office, when the job of running the country requires a rudimentary understanding of Big Numbers.
    This is one reason why we should adopt my plan to rebase the currency with every new monarch. If one KCIII pound was worth ten QEII pounds, and one KWV pound would be worth ten KCIII pound, etc, then you would keep the numbers smaller and easier to understand.
    Could you imagine working on a checkout the day after that went into effect...?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,452
    In 2 days time, on Sunday the 7th of September, we mark the 3 year Anniversary of Nick Brown being suspended from the Labour party by Keir Starmer, and we still haven't been told why!

    https://x.com/timmyvoe/status/1963887795438522635?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,733
    Eabhal said:

    A claim that UK gas produced in the North Sea emits “four times” less carbon dioxide (CO2) than imported liquified natural gas (LNG) featured prominently in both the Guardian and the Daily Telegraph this week.

    https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-north-sea-gas-is-not-four-times-cleaner-than-lng-imports/

    I think I mentioned this 4x thing myself earlier this week - seems it is a misleading stat.

    And do you know what produces infinity times less carbon dioxide than burning imported gas? Not burning gas at all.

    The same people making these silly arguments are also those losing it when you suggest moving to EVs by 2030 or rolling out heat pumps. It's cynical late stage sabotage from those who denied climate change existed 10 years ago.
    Yes, but there is no technically feasible plan to move to zero carbon by 2030s or even 2040s that does not involve still burning some gas iirc.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,768
    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Claudia Webbe the latest MP who can’t do basic maths.

    https://x.com/claudiawebbe/status/1963549666403840509

    To paraphrase, assets of billionaires are £620bn, taxing them 3% raises £40bn which funds the entire NHS.

    Err no Claudia, 3% of £620bn is £18.6bn, and the NHS budget is more than £200bn.

    (Assuming of course that the billionaires don’t relocate to Delaware or Dubai, and just happily pay 3% of their wealth every year).

    Why is it that so many politicians are all at sea when they need to deal with numbers greater than they can do on fingers and toes? The inability to sort out millions from billions from trillions should disqualify them from office, when the job of running the country requires a rudimentary understanding of Big Numbers.
    This is one reason why we should adopt my plan to rebase the currency with every new monarch. If one KCIII pound was worth ten QEII pounds, and one KWV pound would be worth ten KCIII pound, etc, then you would keep the numbers smaller and easier to understand.
    Could you imagine working on a checkout the day after that went into effect...?
    Working on the checkout is the easy bit.

    Could you imagine being the IT guy who has to reprogram all of the computers, so that the tills and stock control systems work, and the historic reports all make sense…?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,943
    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Claudia Webbe the latest MP who can’t do basic maths.

    https://x.com/claudiawebbe/status/1963549666403840509

    To paraphrase, assets of billionaires are £620bn, taxing them 3% raises £40bn which funds the entire NHS.

    Err no Claudia, 3% of £620bn is £18.6bn, and the NHS budget is more than £200bn.

    (Assuming of course that the billionaires don’t relocate to Delaware or Dubai, and just happily pay 3% of their wealth every year).

    Why is it that so many politicians are all at sea when they need to deal with numbers greater than they can do on fingers and toes? The inability to sort out millions from billions from trillions should disqualify them from office, when the job of running the country requires a rudimentary understanding of Big Numbers.
    This is one reason why we should adopt my plan to rebase the currency with every new monarch. If one KCIII pound was worth ten QEII pounds, and one KWV pound would be worth ten KCIII pound, etc, then you would keep the numbers smaller and easier to understand.
    Could you imagine working on a checkout the day after that went into effect...?
    Sure, there are a few elements of friction with the idea.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,855
    SamCoatesSky

    MPs suggesting an Angela Rayner decision has been made - so stand by for more news soon…
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,160
    edited 10:22AM
    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1963910135924871224

    @SamCoatesSky
    MPs suggesting an Angela Rayner decision has been made - so stand by for more news soon…
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 165

    DoctorG said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    vino said:

    DavidL said:

    vino said:

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 31% (+1)
    RFM: 21% (+14)
    LAB: 17% (-18)
    CON: 11% (-2)
    LDM: 11% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    , 21 Aug - 1 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Catastrophic poll for Labour. I mean the SNP have been shocking and they have lost half their vote?
    To keep out the SNP will Labour, Tories and Lib Dems all tactical vote for Reform?
    Or is the SNP the lesser evil?
    Holyrood is PR so no need, on that poll there will be a Unionist majority in the Scottish Parliament next year anyway for the first time since 2011
    Not according to an actual Scotch polling expert, SNP just 2 seats off an outright majority. He does caveat that the LD numbers are very likely an outlier.

    Projecting More in Common ?? Aug/Sep into seats (changes vs 2021 on new boundaries):

    SNP ~ 63 (nc)
    Lab ~ 17 (-4)
    Reform UK ~ 17 (+17)
    Lib Dem ~ 15 (+11)
    Con ~ 11 (-20)
    Green ~ 6 (-4)

    (Projection caveats: https://ballotbox.scot/projections)
    Next years elections look very grim for the Tories.

    I expect more rats to leave the sinking ship so that they keep their seats. All that is needed is to kiss Farages arse.
    FPT

    Lib dems polling very well in that poll, 6 seats looks very low for the Greens. If the Lib Dem vote is concentrated in former heartlands, NE, Highlands, SoS, they can win a few list seats back and challenge Tories for 4th place

    There will be a bun fight over the top place list seats for the Tories, even that may not save some of them.

    On the current polling the SNP vote goes down 4/5k in many constituencies but they still hoover up the seats as the opposition are too fragmented
    The MiC poll makes things very tight at the margins.
    Its MoE from an effective dead heat for second (or conversely Ref or Lab marching into a strong solo second place)
    With SNP winning the bulk of constituencies, a 16/16/14/12 list split will see them all win 1 list seat in most regions with the odd second seat in best regions
    The Tories could easily be adrift in fifth or cling on to third place in seats on this sort of position
    LDs could get their best ever result or a close but no cigar
    Labour a good second or disaster
    Reform will have a good result regardless but maybe not a breakthrough to serious contender at the low end.

    Hanging on to constituencies will be key and that probably favours the LDs most. Labour might struggle to get more than 3 and the Tories might hold 3? LDs maybe 5 or 6, Reform could draw a blank
    Yes, agree with much of what you say. For lib dems I think they're in decent shape to hold the constituencies they have, maybe challenge hard in Caithness and Kate Forbes seat - both will be tough fights.

    I think the Tories best chance for a constituency is holding onto Rachael Hamilton's borders seat. The rest are toss ups depending on whose vote falls the most, and how big a chunk of votes Reform take.

    Lib Dems didn't win any list seats last time round so should take a few if they keep up their polling record.

    John Swinney can sit back a bit and watch the other parties take chunks out of each other, second place looks between Ref UK and Slab. It's an outside bet Lab can get Sarwar into Bute House, but he will be buoyed with local by election results
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,943
    Sandpit said:

    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Claudia Webbe the latest MP who can’t do basic maths.

    https://x.com/claudiawebbe/status/1963549666403840509

    To paraphrase, assets of billionaires are £620bn, taxing them 3% raises £40bn which funds the entire NHS.

    Err no Claudia, 3% of £620bn is £18.6bn, and the NHS budget is more than £200bn.

    (Assuming of course that the billionaires don’t relocate to Delaware or Dubai, and just happily pay 3% of their wealth every year).

    Why is it that so many politicians are all at sea when they need to deal with numbers greater than they can do on fingers and toes? The inability to sort out millions from billions from trillions should disqualify them from office, when the job of running the country requires a rudimentary understanding of Big Numbers.
    This is one reason why we should adopt my plan to rebase the currency with every new monarch. If one KCIII pound was worth ten QEII pounds, and one KWV pound would be worth ten KCIII pound, etc, then you would keep the numbers smaller and easier to understand.
    Could you imagine working on a checkout the day after that went into effect...?
    Working on the checkout is the easy bit.

    Could you imagine being the IT guy who has to reprogram all of the computers, so that the tills and stock control systems work, and the historic reports all make sense…?
    That's actually the easy bit, except for the fact that some ETL tools can't multiply by ten reliably.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,781
    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Claudia Webbe the latest MP who can’t do basic maths.

    https://x.com/claudiawebbe/status/1963549666403840509

    To paraphrase, assets of billionaires are £620bn, taxing them 3% raises £40bn which funds the entire NHS.

    Err no Claudia, 3% of £620bn is £18.6bn, and the NHS budget is more than £200bn.

    (Assuming of course that the billionaires don’t relocate to Delaware or Dubai, and just happily pay 3% of their wealth every year).

    Why is it that so many politicians are all at sea when they need to deal with numbers greater than they can do on fingers and toes? The inability to sort out millions from billions from trillions should disqualify them from office, when the job of running the country requires a rudimentary understanding of Big Numbers.
    This is one reason why we should adopt my plan to rebase the currency with every new monarch. If one KCIII pound was worth ten QEII pounds, and one KWV pound would be worth ten KCIII pound, etc, then you would keep the numbers smaller and easier to understand.
    Could you imagine working on a checkout the day after that went into effect...?
    At the time of decimalisation I was running a very busy newsagents and general store and it was a nightmare
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,251
    edited 10:30AM
    Scott_xP said:

    SamCoatesSky

    MPs suggesting an Angela Rayner decision has been made - so stand by for more news soon…

    There is speedy investigation and there is that. Big Ange ain't going anywhere. Presume she was able to wave a bit of paper with wrong advice, otherwise surely would take some more time would have to speak to all the parties involved.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,591
    edited 10:29AM
    The order for Frigates for Denmark is expected to come in - for the cheaper ones (Type 31).

    (It makes sense perhaps because the hull for this design was licensed from Denmark).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cge2d4vngvdo
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,726
    edited 10:31AM

    Eabhal said:

    A claim that UK gas produced in the North Sea emits “four times” less carbon dioxide (CO2) than imported liquified natural gas (LNG) featured prominently in both the Guardian and the Daily Telegraph this week.

    https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-north-sea-gas-is-not-four-times-cleaner-than-lng-imports/

    I think I mentioned this 4x thing myself earlier this week - seems it is a misleading stat.

    And do you know what produces infinity times less carbon dioxide than burning imported gas? Not burning gas at all.

    The same people making these silly arguments are also those losing it when you suggest moving to EVs by 2030 or rolling out heat pumps. It's cynical late stage sabotage from those who denied climate change existed 10 years ago.
    Yes, but there is no technically feasible plan to move to zero carbon by 2030s or even 2040s that does not involve still burning some gas iirc.
    Correct. It's just the people who make a massive fuss about us importing gas have no interest in national security or in reducing carbon emissions. If they did, they'd recognise that getting off gas as quickly as possible is the best way to reduce our vulnerability to a disruption in supply and exposure to global hydrocarbon markets.

    Badenoch's policy isn't even economically sensible. Extracting 100% of the gas and oil out of North Sea will require gigantic subsidies because doing so will cost a lot more than importing it from Norway.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,260

    Sandpit said:

    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Claudia Webbe the latest MP who can’t do basic maths.

    https://x.com/claudiawebbe/status/1963549666403840509

    To paraphrase, assets of billionaires are £620bn, taxing them 3% raises £40bn which funds the entire NHS.

    Err no Claudia, 3% of £620bn is £18.6bn, and the NHS budget is more than £200bn.

    (Assuming of course that the billionaires don’t relocate to Delaware or Dubai, and just happily pay 3% of their wealth every year).

    Why is it that so many politicians are all at sea when they need to deal with numbers greater than they can do on fingers and toes? The inability to sort out millions from billions from trillions should disqualify them from office, when the job of running the country requires a rudimentary understanding of Big Numbers.
    This is one reason why we should adopt my plan to rebase the currency with every new monarch. If one KCIII pound was worth ten QEII pounds, and one KWV pound would be worth ten KCIII pound, etc, then you would keep the numbers smaller and easier to understand.
    Could you imagine working on a checkout the day after that went into effect...?
    Working on the checkout is the easy bit.

    Could you imagine being the IT guy who has to reprogram all of the computers, so that the tills and stock control systems work, and the historic reports all make sense…?
    That's actually the easy bit, except for the fact that some ETL tools can't multiply by ten reliably.
    Are those the special UKIP ones which work to base 12?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,071

    Scott_xP said:

    SamCoatesSky

    MPs suggesting an Angela Rayner decision has been made - so stand by for more news soon…

    Big Ange ain't going anywhere.
    The tweet isn’t clear . Has the report landed and Starmers made a decision or just the report has landed .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,251
    edited 10:33AM
    nico67 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SamCoatesSky

    MPs suggesting an Angela Rayner decision has been made - so stand by for more news soon…

    Big Ange ain't going anywhere.
    The tweet isn’t clear . Has the report landed and Starmers made a decision or just the report has landed .
    Either way, doesn't matter. It is the fact the investigation is concluded so quickly. Only other possibility, a newspaper has phoned up Starmer to say we have more and its damning.

    But I think its the former, she has some evidence to put her in the clear. Investigation concluded, nothing to see. If she was guilty of something (deliberately or accidentally), even a speedy investigation, the assessment of how "bad" it was always takes some time.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,857
    New poll?

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (+2)
    LAB: 21% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 14% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via @techneUK, 1-4 Sep.
    Changes w/ 9-10 Jul.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,857
    10%+ seems like the standard Reform polling lead, now
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,032
    Phil said:

    Carnyx said:

    Phil said:

    Sandpit said:

    Phil said:

    theProle said:

    Phil said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/sep/05/nigel-farage-uses-private-company-to-pay-less-tax-on-gb-news-earnings

    £2k/hour to appear on GB News seems more like an undisclosed political donation than a genuine appearance fee. Just another example of how rich rightwing fanatics like GB News owner Marshall are distorting the political conversation.

    Nigel Farage had a programme on GB News long before his re-entry into the political fray. You just can't bear the fact that someone who you bitterly oppose is doing well.
    If you're not worried about the man who could be PM in four years taking oodles of cash (that he's fuelling through a tax avoidance corporate vehicle) from a shadowy billionaire who is also buying up vast swathes of the UK media landscape, then you should be.
    The Guardian article is (deliberately?) misleading - if you funnel your income into a ltd company like this then you pay 25% corporation tax, but then you have to pay dividend taxes on top - 8.75% if you’re a lower rate income tax payer & a painful 33.75% if you’re higher rate.

    So a higher rate taxpayer pays ~50% on their marginal income paying themselves this way. A lower rate one pays 31.5%. If you compare with the total tax take for a salaried employee you’ll find the figures are roughly comparable - an employee earning £50k pays 30% of their total cost of employment in taxes (income tax + NI + employers NI) and the marginal rate for a high income earner is 40-45% plus 15% employers NI on top.

    Dividend taxes used to be much lower & it was a huge tax advantage to structure your income through a ltd company. These days, after administration costs you’re probably slightly worse off, but you do get the advantage of being able to structure your income in whatever way you choose, including the ability to spread lumpy income across multiple tax years which can make it worth the effort for some people.

    If you play fast & loose with the corporate credit card you can push some of that income through as expenses of course, but you’re asking for trouble if HMRC ever comes knocking.
    That's not quite right either - Corp tax is only 25% for companies making a profit over £250k. It's 19% up to £50k then a sliding scale between the too.

    So if you get £50k income or less channeled through a ltd, it's 27.75%. You get the first £12.7k as as tax free PAYE, although there is still employers NI on it.

    It's also very tax efficient to dump the money into a pension from a ltd, but obviously you can only get the money back out again once you are old enough to retire.

    All of this is of course full of perverse incentives - e.g. if you have a business that makes zero profit some years and £100k others, it's very much in your interest to cook to books so it makes £50k every year instead.

    I have a business which on paper has substantial retained earnings - my accountant told me to take dividends out so my earnings total £50k every year (even if the cash to do so doesn't exist and therefore the dividend just becomes a directors loan to the business) partly on the basis that if the taxation regime changes it will almost certainly only get worse, and mostly because you pay far less tax by taking £50k each year than £0 for two years and £150k the next.
    Honestly, if your income is very lumpy and regularly falls well below the higher rate threshold I don’t personally have a problem with people using a ltd company to smooth it out. Consider an author who takes an advance for a book which might have to last them multiple years - why shouldn’t they take that as PAYE in two successive years? Is that egregious tax avoidance? I don’t believe so personally.
    Also if you’re an MP you’re perilously close to that horrible 60% rate of income tax between £100k and £120k. Much better to leave that in the company if you don’t need the cash, and either take it after you’ve finished life in Parliament or take several years’ income all in one go.

    Note to Rachel from accounts, such high tax rates cause market distortions and behavioural changes to avoid them.
    The marginal rate from 100-120k is even worse than that if you’re an MP with kids paying back student loans on top.
    Cutting shallots time ... the buggers are *responsible* (admittedly for some only in the sense of continuing management, rather than the original genius idea) for the SLC.
    The loss of childcare from £100k is worse than the student loans. The point is that the marginal rate of income tax for typical professional salaried people earning > £100k with young families is completely ludicrous.
    Some of those who have a household income over £100k will be able to afford a nanny let alone childcare
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,855
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    2m
    Confirmation expected soon that Angela Rayner has left the government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,032
    edited 10:35AM
    Leon said:

    New poll?

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (+2)
    LAB: 21% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 14% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via @techneUK, 1-4 Sep.
    Changes w/ 9-10 Jul.

    Hague got 31% in 2001 and lost by a landslide, yes Farage is doing well but his rewards will come from FPTP as his opposition is split.

    Unless tactical votes against him, note Labour plus LDs plus Greens are on 45% combined
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,251
    edited 10:37AM
    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    2m
    Confirmation expected soon that Angela Rayner has left the government.

    Sounds like it was my "latter" option then, the media probably have more on the story. Meaning Rayner has had to be pushed overboard, something that Starmer doesn't want to do as it opens a massive can of worms and Rayner was clear she was going to fight to the death.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,768

    nico67 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SamCoatesSky

    MPs suggesting an Angela Rayner decision has been made - so stand by for more news soon…

    Big Ange ain't going anywhere.
    The tweet isn’t clear . Has the report landed and Starmers made a decision or just the report has landed .
    Either way, doesn't matter. It is the fact the investigation is concluded so quickly. Only other possibility, a newspaper has phoned up Starmer to say we have more and its damning.

    But I think its the former, she has some evidence to put her in the clear. Investigation concluded, nothing to see. If she was guilty of something (deliberately or accidentally), even a speedy investigation, the assessment of how "bad" it was always takes some time.
    What’s the chance of Starmer saying “nothing to see here, move along please”, followed by a damning story in the Sundays that the papers already know about?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,975

    In other news, Mum "only" won 2nd Prize in this year's Redbridge in Bloom Container Garden category. I thought she did extremely well, and it is a gorgeous display, but it's obvious to me she sees it as a "failure" (Indian Mum and all that!).

    She previously won 1st Prize in 2023, 2019, 2015 and 2014, though didn't enter last year because they brought forward the closing date for entry and the judging by a month!

    At any rate, here is her garden as it looked during judging in early June this year:



    PS. Um, I chipped in with some watering, moving pots around, and sweeping :)

    For those of you concerned about your like to posts ratio, it seems the surefire route to a bumper PB like harvest is to post pictures of your mum’s gardening.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,943
    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Claudia Webbe the latest MP who can’t do basic maths.

    https://x.com/claudiawebbe/status/1963549666403840509

    To paraphrase, assets of billionaires are £620bn, taxing them 3% raises £40bn which funds the entire NHS.

    Err no Claudia, 3% of £620bn is £18.6bn, and the NHS budget is more than £200bn.

    (Assuming of course that the billionaires don’t relocate to Delaware or Dubai, and just happily pay 3% of their wealth every year).

    Why is it that so many politicians are all at sea when they need to deal with numbers greater than they can do on fingers and toes? The inability to sort out millions from billions from trillions should disqualify them from office, when the job of running the country requires a rudimentary understanding of Big Numbers.
    This is one reason why we should adopt my plan to rebase the currency with every new monarch. If one KCIII pound was worth ten QEII pounds, and one KWV pound would be worth ten KCIII pound, etc, then you would keep the numbers smaller and easier to understand.
    Could you imagine working on a checkout the day after that went into effect...?
    Working on the checkout is the easy bit.

    Could you imagine being the IT guy who has to reprogram all of the computers, so that the tills and stock control systems work, and the historic reports all make sense…?
    That's actually the easy bit, except for the fact that some ETL tools can't multiply by ten reliably.
    Are those the special UKIP ones which work to base 12?
    No. A more mundane reason to do with binary truncation.

    There are some good arguments for moving to a base 12 system, but it would make a lot of computer arithmetic simpler if we used a base 16 number system. Plus I'd then only be 2D years old.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,726
    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    2m
    Confirmation expected soon that Angela Rayner has left the government.

    Wow. That BBC article was so generous to her yesterday I thought she'd be fine.

    There must be something that demonstrates she didn't share all the info with the lawyers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,251
    Leon said:

    New poll?

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (+2)
    LAB: 21% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 14% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via @techneUK, 1-4 Sep.
    Changes w/ 9-10 Jul.

    We haven't even had the nightmare before Christmas budget.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,307
    So Labour's best chance at having a working-class woman as PM has been forced out of government. Disappointing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,781
    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    2m
    Confirmation expected soon that Angela Rayner has left the government.

    Wow. That BBC article was so generous to her yesterday I thought she'd be fine.

    There must be something that demonstrates she didn't share all the info with the lawyers.
    Let's wait for the confirmation but if so what a way to take Farage off the headlines
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,768
    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    2m
    Confirmation expected soon that Angela Rayner has left the government.

    Wow. That BBC article was so generous to her yesterday I thought she'd be fine.

    There must be something that demonstrates she didn't share all the info with the lawyers.
    When her conveyancer for the new property started talking to the press last night, to make it clear they knew nothing about the Trust, that was probably the start of the end for Rayner.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,632

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    2m
    Confirmation expected soon that Angela Rayner has left the government.

    Wow. That BBC article was so generous to her yesterday I thought she'd be fine.

    There must be something that demonstrates she didn't share all the info with the lawyers.
    Let's wait for the confirmation but if so what a way to take Farage off the headlines
    And bond rates.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,781
    Andy_JS said:

    So Labour's best chance at having a working-class woman as PM has been forced out of government. Disappointing.

    If confirmed the only person to blame is Rayner herself
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,594
    edited 10:40AM
    Kemi Badenoch making some extraordinary allegations about Angela Rayner.

    She’s in Essex and doesn’t have Parliamentary privilege.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,452

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    2m
    Confirmation expected soon that Angela Rayner has left the government.

    Wow. That BBC article was so generous to her yesterday I thought she'd be fine.

    There must be something that demonstrates she didn't share all the info with the lawyers.
    Let's wait for the confirmation but if so what a way to take Farage off the headlines
    Oh yeah, I’m sure he’ll be gutted!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,071

    Kemi Badenoch making some extraordinary allegations about Angela Rayner.

    She’s in Essex and doesn’t have Parliamentary privilege.

    She really is vile .
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,804
    Andy_JS said:

    So Labour's best chance at having a working-class woman as PM has been forced out of government. Disappointing.

    An architect of her own downfall, sadly. She's had a few near-misses in the past, including failing to declare thousands of pounds of clothes from Lord Alli and use of his New York apartment.

    The thing is, if this had happened to an MP for a rival party, she would be firmly on the 'resign!' bandwagon.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,307

    Andy_JS said:

    So Labour's best chance at having a working-class woman as PM has been forced out of government. Disappointing.

    If confirmed the only person to blame is Rayner herself
    I don't understand why government members don't have better financial advisors.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,307
    Leon said:

    New poll?

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (+2)
    LAB: 21% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 14% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via @techneUK, 1-4 Sep.
    Changes w/ 9-10 Jul.

    Yep, their first poll for nearly 2 months.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,007
    TimS said:

    In other news, Mum "only" won 2nd Prize in this year's Redbridge in Bloom Container Garden category. I thought she did extremely well, and it is a gorgeous display, but it's obvious to me she sees it as a "failure" (Indian Mum and all that!).

    She previously won 1st Prize in 2023, 2019, 2015 and 2014, though didn't enter last year because they brought forward the closing date for entry and the judging by a month!

    At any rate, here is her garden as it looked during judging in early June this year:



    PS. Um, I chipped in with some watering, moving pots around, and sweeping :)

    For those of you concerned about your like to posts ratio, it seems the surefire route to a bumper PB like harvest is to post pictures of your mum’s gardening.
    Would a pic of my mum’s grave with some flowers have the same effect?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,481
    edited 10:49AM

    In other news, Mum "only" won 2nd Prize in this year's Redbridge in Bloom Container Garden category. I thought she did extremely well, and it is a gorgeous display, but it's obvious to me she sees it as a "failure" (Indian Mum and all that!).

    She previously won 1st Prize in 2023, 2019, 2015 and 2014, though didn't enter last year because they brought forward the closing date for entry and the judging by a month!

    At any rate, here is her garden as it looked during judging in early June this year:



    PS. Um, I chipped in with some watering, moving pots around, and sweeping :)

    I would say her record is an extremely impressive one.

    I generally prefer gardening displays to be a little wilder than that, but it is very elegant.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,907
    HYUFD said:

    Phil said:

    Carnyx said:

    Phil said:

    Sandpit said:

    Phil said:

    theProle said:

    Phil said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/sep/05/nigel-farage-uses-private-company-to-pay-less-tax-on-gb-news-earnings

    £2k/hour to appear on GB News seems more like an undisclosed political donation than a genuine appearance fee. Just another example of how rich rightwing fanatics like GB News owner Marshall are distorting the political conversation.

    Nigel Farage had a programme on GB News long before his re-entry into the political fray. You just can't bear the fact that someone who you bitterly oppose is doing well.
    If you're not worried about the man who could be PM in four years taking oodles of cash (that he's fuelling through a tax avoidance corporate vehicle) from a shadowy billionaire who is also buying up vast swathes of the UK media landscape, then you should be.
    The Guardian article is (deliberately?) misleading - if you funnel your income into a ltd company like this then you pay 25% corporation tax, but then you have to pay dividend taxes on top - 8.75% if you’re a lower rate income tax payer & a painful 33.75% if you’re higher rate.

    So a higher rate taxpayer pays ~50% on their marginal income paying themselves this way. A lower rate one pays 31.5%. If you compare with the total tax take for a salaried employee you’ll find the figures are roughly comparable - an employee earning £50k pays 30% of their total cost of employment in taxes (income tax + NI + employers NI) and the marginal rate for a high income earner is 40-45% plus 15% employers NI on top.

    Dividend taxes used to be much lower & it was a huge tax advantage to structure your income through a ltd company. These days, after administration costs you’re probably slightly worse off, but you do get the advantage of being able to structure your income in whatever way you choose, including the ability to spread lumpy income across multiple tax years which can make it worth the effort for some people.

    If you play fast & loose with the corporate credit card you can push some of that income through as expenses of course, but you’re asking for trouble if HMRC ever comes knocking.
    That's not quite right either - Corp tax is only 25% for companies making a profit over £250k. It's 19% up to £50k then a sliding scale between the too.

    So if you get £50k income or less channeled through a ltd, it's 27.75%. You get the first £12.7k as as tax free PAYE, although there is still employers NI on it.

    It's also very tax efficient to dump the money into a pension from a ltd, but obviously you can only get the money back out again once you are old enough to retire.

    All of this is of course full of perverse incentives - e.g. if you have a business that makes zero profit some years and £100k others, it's very much in your interest to cook to books so it makes £50k every year instead.

    I have a business which on paper has substantial retained earnings - my accountant told me to take dividends out so my earnings total £50k every year (even if the cash to do so doesn't exist and therefore the dividend just becomes a directors loan to the business) partly on the basis that if the taxation regime changes it will almost certainly only get worse, and mostly because you pay far less tax by taking £50k each year than £0 for two years and £150k the next.
    Honestly, if your income is very lumpy and regularly falls well below the higher rate threshold I don’t personally have a problem with people using a ltd company to smooth it out. Consider an author who takes an advance for a book which might have to last them multiple years - why shouldn’t they take that as PAYE in two successive years? Is that egregious tax avoidance? I don’t believe so personally.
    Also if you’re an MP you’re perilously close to that horrible 60% rate of income tax between £100k and £120k. Much better to leave that in the company if you don’t need the cash, and either take it after you’ve finished life in Parliament or take several years’ income all in one go.

    Note to Rachel from accounts, such high tax rates cause market distortions and behavioural changes to avoid them.
    The marginal rate from 100-120k is even worse than that if you’re an MP with kids paying back student loans on top.
    Cutting shallots time ... the buggers are *responsible* (admittedly for some only in the sense of continuing management, rather than the original genius idea) for the SLC.
    The loss of childcare from £100k is worse than the student loans. The point is that the marginal rate of income tax for typical professional salaried people earning > £100k with young families is completely ludicrous.
    Some of those who have a household income over £100k will be able to afford a nanny let alone childcare
    The huge marginal tax rate is the problem, because it incentivises very productive employees to reduce their labour hours to below the threshold. Why work an entire extra day a week week you could work a four day week, take home the same pay & get to spend that extra day with your kids? It’s a no brainer.

    Also, if you’re living in the London commuter belt & working in central London, £100k doesn’t go all that far frankly, Have you seen the prices of very ordinary three bed semis in outer London?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,781
    Seems rumours Rayner has left government seem to be growing and I expect Starmer will have to make a statement very quickly
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,804
    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    2m
    Confirmation expected soon that Angela Rayner has left the government.

    Wow. That BBC article was so generous to her yesterday I thought she'd be fine.

    There must be something that demonstrates she didn't share all the info with the lawyers.
    When her conveyancer for the new property started talking to the press last night, to make it clear they knew nothing about the Trust, that was probably the start of the end for Rayner.
    Yes; and if what they said is correct, it reflects really badly on Rayner. She attempted to throw them under the bus.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,781
    Telegraph now reporting Rayner is to leave government
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,307
    edited 10:49AM
    edit
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,260
    HYUFD said:

    Phil said:

    Carnyx said:

    Phil said:

    Sandpit said:

    Phil said:

    theProle said:

    Phil said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/sep/05/nigel-farage-uses-private-company-to-pay-less-tax-on-gb-news-earnings

    £2k/hour to appear on GB News seems more like an undisclosed political donation than a genuine appearance fee. Just another example of how rich rightwing fanatics like GB News owner Marshall are distorting the political conversation.

    Nigel Farage had a programme on GB News long before his re-entry into the political fray. You just can't bear the fact that someone who you bitterly oppose is doing well.
    If you're not worried about the man who could be PM in four years taking oodles of cash (that he's fuelling through a tax avoidance corporate vehicle) from a shadowy billionaire who is also buying up vast swathes of the UK media landscape, then you should be.
    The Guardian article is (deliberately?) misleading - if you funnel your income into a ltd company like this then you pay 25% corporation tax, but then you have to pay dividend taxes on top - 8.75% if you’re a lower rate income tax payer & a painful 33.75% if you’re higher rate.

    So a higher rate taxpayer pays ~50% on their marginal income paying themselves this way. A lower rate one pays 31.5%. If you compare with the total tax take for a salaried employee you’ll find the figures are roughly comparable - an employee earning £50k pays 30% of their total cost of employment in taxes (income tax + NI + employers NI) and the marginal rate for a high income earner is 40-45% plus 15% employers NI on top.

    Dividend taxes used to be much lower & it was a huge tax advantage to structure your income through a ltd company. These days, after administration costs you’re probably slightly worse off, but you do get the advantage of being able to structure your income in whatever way you choose, including the ability to spread lumpy income across multiple tax years which can make it worth the effort for some people.

    If you play fast & loose with the corporate credit card you can push some of that income through as expenses of course, but you’re asking for trouble if HMRC ever comes knocking.
    That's not quite right either - Corp tax is only 25% for companies making a profit over £250k. It's 19% up to £50k then a sliding scale between the too.

    So if you get £50k income or less channeled through a ltd, it's 27.75%. You get the first £12.7k as as tax free PAYE, although there is still employers NI on it.

    It's also very tax efficient to dump the money into a pension from a ltd, but obviously you can only get the money back out again once you are old enough to retire.

    All of this is of course full of perverse incentives - e.g. if you have a business that makes zero profit some years and £100k others, it's very much in your interest to cook to books so it makes £50k every year instead.

    I have a business which on paper has substantial retained earnings - my accountant told me to take dividends out so my earnings total £50k every year (even if the cash to do so doesn't exist and therefore the dividend just becomes a directors loan to the business) partly on the basis that if the taxation regime changes it will almost certainly only get worse, and mostly because you pay far less tax by taking £50k each year than £0 for two years and £150k the next.
    Honestly, if your income is very lumpy and regularly falls well below the higher rate threshold I don’t personally have a problem with people using a ltd company to smooth it out. Consider an author who takes an advance for a book which might have to last them multiple years - why shouldn’t they take that as PAYE in two successive years? Is that egregious tax avoidance? I don’t believe so personally.
    Also if you’re an MP you’re perilously close to that horrible 60% rate of income tax between £100k and £120k. Much better to leave that in the company if you don’t need the cash, and either take it after you’ve finished life in Parliament or take several years’ income all in one go.

    Note to Rachel from accounts, such high tax rates cause market distortions and behavioural changes to avoid them.
    The marginal rate from 100-120k is even worse than that if you’re an MP with kids paying back student loans on top.
    Cutting shallots time ... the buggers are *responsible* (admittedly for some only in the sense of continuing management, rather than the original genius idea) for the SLC.
    The loss of childcare from £100k is worse than the student loans. The point is that the marginal rate of income tax for typical professional salaried people earning > £100k with young families is completely ludicrous.
    Some of those who have a household income over £100k will be able to afford a nanny let alone childcare
    https://www.norland.ac.uk/salaries-fees/

    Depending on experience as a Norland nanny: London* (Residential) is £40,000 to £59,500 pluys obviously the board and keep.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,810
    She is so toast...

    Oh well. No great loss.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,804

    Seems rumours Rayner has left government seem to be growing and I expect Starmer will have to make a statement very quickly

    I really hope he doesn't try to make he out to be a victim.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,733

    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    BREAKING:

    Like
    @SamCoatesSky
    hearing a decision has been made on Angela Rayner's future. Sounds like an announcement is imminent

    Two sources suggest she's gone but it's not formally confirmed yet. Radio silence from No 10....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,781

    Seems rumours Rayner has left government seem to be growing and I expect Starmer will have to make a statement very quickly

    I really hope he doesn't try to make he out to be a victim.
    If true this must have huge implications for Starmer and labour going forward
  • Telegraph now reporting Rayner is to leave government

    Good to get that briefing in before the mid-day news.. someone really should go and tell her now though..😏
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,307
    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    One thing I don’t get about Rayner’s story. She claimed to have 3 separate pieces of legal advice her return was fine. Its accuracy was supposedly never questioned, or in doubt. So why on Friday did she suddenly commission new advice. Whilst still letting Starmer and others tell the country everything was fine, and the stories questioning her tax affairs were all a smear."

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1963878037289607569
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,975

    Leon said:

    New poll?

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (+2)
    LAB: 21% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 14% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via @techneUK, 1-4 Sep.
    Changes w/ 9-10 Jul.

    We haven't even had the nightmare before Christmas budget.
    Ah, another person opting for the nightmare before Christmas pun. This hopefully means journalists will use it too and I can claim prescience from my LinkedIn (ew, sorry) post predicting it a couple of days ago.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,449
    edited 10:52AM
    Pulpstar said:

    Also on electric vehicles and tax, if you buy one for your small business then you can claim 100% first year allowance, saving plenty - so @Theprole if you have a particularly good year maybe something to consider :)

    Only good if you were buying a new car anyway (when it's very very good).

    I run a 11 year old diesel estate which cost me £2500. There is nothing available new that comes close to the cost per mile once you allow for the depreciation. All in it costs about 17p/mile. It's all in my name, so I get to claim the first 10k back out of the business at 45p/mile tax free. All far better than buying new through the business then getting hit for some BIK plus a whacking depreciation cost. Only mugs run new cars.

    Also, I couldn't really go EV anyway, I do quite a lot of days for work which require me to drive ~250 miles, spend a couple of hours somewhere (often in the middle of nowhere) and drive home again - I can get almost 1000 miles from a tank on said diesel barge, having to sit around on public EV chargers isn't something I'm willing to do.
  • OT - Boris who?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,733
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    A claim that UK gas produced in the North Sea emits “four times” less carbon dioxide (CO2) than imported liquified natural gas (LNG) featured prominently in both the Guardian and the Daily Telegraph this week.

    https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-north-sea-gas-is-not-four-times-cleaner-than-lng-imports/

    I think I mentioned this 4x thing myself earlier this week - seems it is a misleading stat.

    And do you know what produces infinity times less carbon dioxide than burning imported gas? Not burning gas at all.

    The same people making these silly arguments are also those losing it when you suggest moving to EVs by 2030 or rolling out heat pumps. It's cynical late stage sabotage from those who denied climate change existed 10 years ago.
    Yes, but there is no technically feasible plan to move to zero carbon by 2030s or even 2040s that does not involve still burning some gas iirc.
    Correct. It's just the people who make a massive fuss about us importing gas have no interest in national security or in reducing carbon emissions. If they did, they'd recognise that getting off gas as quickly as possible is the best way to reduce our vulnerability to a disruption in supply and exposure to global hydrocarbon markets.

    Badenoch's policy isn't even economically sensible. Extracting 100% of the gas and oil out of North Sea will require gigantic subsidies because doing so will cost a lot more than importing it from Norway.
    Who cares what Badenoch thinks?

    She wont be in office by this time next year.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,160
    I do hope she's getting a Malcolm Tucker style sacking.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,711
    Andy_JS said:

    Very strange.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-afd-candidates-dead-election-b2819180.html

    "Six candidates for Germany’s far-right AfD party die in lead up to election

    Police have said it does not suspect foul play after six AfD candidates have died ahead of the local election for the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia"

    For some reason I am reminded of this - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Army_Faction#"Stammheim_Death_Night"
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,447
    Given the number of Tory uncovers at what point is the party renamed to ConForm.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,733
    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    14m
    Sounds like the exchange of letters is happening.

    Still not formally confirmed but it appears to be done.

    Angela Rayner is out of government
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,768
    Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    One thing I don’t get about Rayner’s story. She claimed to have 3 separate pieces of legal advice her return was fine. Its accuracy was supposedly never questioned, or in doubt. So why on Friday did she suddenly commission new advice. Whilst still letting Starmer and others tell the country everything was fine, and the stories questioning her tax affairs were all a smear."

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1963878037289607569

    Because she was naïve enough to think the media would accept it and leave her alone, and didn’t expect her own conveyancer to be making public statements to the contrary only a few hours later.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,943

    Leon said:

    New poll?

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (+2)
    LAB: 21% (-1)
    CON: 18% (=)
    LDM: 14% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via @techneUK, 1-4 Sep.
    Changes w/ 9-10 Jul.

    We haven't even had the nightmare before Christmas budget.
    If Labour fall further they could end up third behind the Tories, which would have quite the effect on the political dynamic - but perhaps it's possible their fall would be reflected on a rise for the Lib Dems?

    If polls were to consistently show a RFM/LDM top two then we really would be in uncharted territory.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,251
    edited 10:58AM
    Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    One thing I don’t get about Rayner’s story. She claimed to have 3 separate pieces of legal advice her return was fine. Its accuracy was supposedly never questioned, or in doubt. So why on Friday did she suddenly commission new advice. Whilst still letting Starmer and others tell the country everything was fine, and the stories questioning her tax affairs were all a smear."

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1963878037289607569

    Interestingly after Rog claims well poor lass she doesn't know any good lawyers, the one she hired on Friday is an extremely expensive KC.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,632
    tlg86 said:

    I do hope she's getting a Malcolm Tucker style sacking.

    It'll be a yellow CRM-114 form completed in triplicate and one ISO standard Banker's Box that needs to be returned...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,810
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    One thing I don’t get about Rayner’s story. She claimed to have 3 separate pieces of legal advice her return was fine. Its accuracy was supposedly never questioned, or in doubt. So why on Friday did she suddenly commission new advice. Whilst still letting Starmer and others tell the country everything was fine, and the stories questioning her tax affairs were all a smear."

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1963878037289607569

    Because she was naïve enough to think the media would accept it and leave her alone, and didn’t expect her own conveyancer to be making public statements to the contrary only a few hours later.
    I think this is the key point. She 'assumed' she did it right and didn't back it up, then lied about the guidence.

    It's always the cover up.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,768

    Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    One thing I don’t get about Rayner’s story. She claimed to have 3 separate pieces of legal advice her return was fine. Its accuracy was supposedly never questioned, or in doubt. So why on Friday did she suddenly commission new advice. Whilst still letting Starmer and others tell the country everything was fine, and the stories questioning her tax affairs were all a smear."

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1963878037289607569

    Interestingly after Rog claims well poor lass she doesn't know any good lawyers, the one see hired on Friday is an extremely expensive KC.
    Will the next scandal be who is paying the KC’s fees?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,810
    Starmer has the report
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,940
    Three Britons killed in Lisbon Funicular:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62lmed42p1o
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,251
    Rate of ministers involved in and sacked for scandals is starting to become quite long now. They do know its not a competition with the previous government?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,940
    edited 10:58AM

    Starmer has the report

    We have to get the same person to do public enquiries. Think how much time and money could be saved.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,560
    edited 10:58AM
    Exceptionally useful for the right if Angela Rayner is out of government, with her popular touch.

    It's almost, dare I say it almost, ideal for the Telegraoh's Reform agenda, and its journalists working on the story. No, what a naughty and scandalous thought on my part.
  • theProle said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Also on electric vehicles and tax, if you buy one for your small business then you can claim 100% first year allowance, saving plenty - so @Theprole if you have a particularly good year maybe something to consider :)

    Only good if you were buying a new car anyway (when it's very very good).

    I run a 11 year old diesel estate which cost me £2500. There is nothing available new that comes close to the cost per mile once you allow for the depreciation. All in it costs about 17p/mile. It's all in my name, so I get to claim the first 10k back out of the business at 45p/mile tax free. All far better than buying new through the business then getting hit for some BIK plus a whacking depreciation cost. Only mugs run new cars.

    Also, I couldn't really go EV anyway, I do quite a lot of days for work which require me to drive ~250 miles, spend a couple of hours somewhere (often in the middle of nowhere) and drive home again - I can get almost 1000 miles from a tank on said diesel barge, having to sit around on public EV chargers isn't something I'm willing to do.
    Yeah, the 45p a mile for using your car on company business is a big plus for you.

    I have almost the opposite situation: virtually zero miles done on company business (commute to/from usual office doesn't count of course). For me the latest cheap EV lease deals are cheaper, in terms of net hit to my pocket, than continuing to run our 6 year old privately owned sensible family car.

    The less miles you actually do on company business, the more sense it makes to have a company car (as long as, these days, it's an EV). Madness...
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