Like Churchill will Boris Johnson defect from the Tories? – politicalbetting.com
Like Churchill will Boris Johnson defect from the Tories? – politicalbetting.com
I am not sure there’s any value in these markets. There’s too much ego involved for this to work even before we consider Nigel Farage inability to work well with others.
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A recall petition will take place if an MP is:
All depends on what benefits his earning potential and chances of being PM again.
£2k/hour to appear on GB News seems more like an undisclosed political donation than a genuine appearance fee. Just another example of how rich rightwing fanatics like GB News owner Marshall are distorting the political conversation.
FPT:
An unusually straight-from-the-shoulder podcast discussing Nigel Farage from the News Agents, sitting on the sea front at Clacton, including a selection of vox pops as well as Emily Maitlis & Co being unusually blunt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXB4G1YSp98
I hadn't twigged that Farage is actually over there to promote GBNews, and the appearance at the Republican controlled committee in Congress was a sideshow; he walked out before his own question session had finished, and was willing to obfuscate about banning journalists from events and communication with Reform led councils.
It is notable that Paul Marshall is also in the USA, also putting out a "please save us from the UK Government" type line.
It will be interesting how Free Speech Nigel handles it at the Reform Conference this weekend. We may not hear, because his Party have banned some journalists who do not have opinions they like.
I'll update a couple of points on my view:
1 - I said I thought Reform would have to take action against their people or branches which are keen on Tommy Robinson & Co. Judging by his Washington performance, they could potentially jump the other way.
2 - He could get defenestrated by his own constituency, since he's never seen there
If anyone has half an hour for a look at something interesting, I recommend the caryatids in the North and South porches at the 1819 Greek Revival St Pancras New Church which is just across the road.
It's the only one known to me with these - Greek style figures used as columns - in the country, and is just across the road.
https://maps.app.goo.gl/tE3oUfc1Ts67wpgp9
IanVisits article about it, with a piccie of the interior, which was built to seat 2500.
Open 11-2 6 days a week, or (I assume) service times on Sundays. Art gallery in the crypt.
https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/articles/inside-the-200-year-old-st-pancras-new-church-56018/
I wonder if maybe he has been taken over by the ghost of an 80 year old Civil War veteran hence his somewhat “old fashioned” views on science, or “witchcraft” as our Bobby might call it.
https://bsky.app/profile/pmdfoster.bsky.social/post/3ly2zngua7k2k
Prophetic or pathetic? It's the first time in a long time (since the later 70s?) that they haven't had the government's ear.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn05089/
A breach of the ministerial code alone can’t lead to a recall petition .
It's a mixed blessing for Farage though. While that does give an infusion of turncoats with a degree of knowledge of how the system works, it does make it harder to differentiate his new broom from a very old and threadbare broom.
A cabinet of all the talents? No chance.
On the third, culture war, he may have a similar patter but his record in government is somewhat different.
I' ve just realised I missed an opportunity to headline this piece with 'Go Nads.'
The Netherlands actually has very high number of people living in houses rather than flats, though unlike England they are more likely to be terraced rather than detached. There is plenty of room to go around if only we didn't build these land inefficient detached houses - my tenement was built directly onto farmland in the 19th century and houses 20 people on a footprint that is now taken up by one divorced dad or a widow.
I'm talking about our country's interests, which require recognising what Trump and his party are.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17498324/
The only BBC coverage I saw was Newsnight where Derbyshire attempted to tear Raskin a new one because of his history with Farage and his insolence to the PM in waiting. Derbyshire has developed into an effective "gotcha" interviewer, but she always seems to start with an agenda. I have no doubt Derbyshire believes Farage to be a clear and present a danger as I do, but a defence of Farage it was nonetheless. Raskin was on his brief and remained untroubled, but why the hostility to him and the defence of Farage's disingenuous "free speech" agenda?
The News Agents analysis from Clacton was far, far better, but do floating voters all indulge themselves in left wing podcasts by dismissed BBC journalists?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/sep/05/nigel-farage-uses-private-company-to-pay-less-tax-on-gb-news-earnings
LDM 41.3% [-36.3]
Reform 36.2% [New]
Labour 11.1% [-11.3]
Con 6.7% [New]
Grn 3.8% [New]
Ind 0.8% [New]
On the face of it virtually all Reform's votes came from the Lib Dems
I assume someone can explain this
Reform is a con trick to raise culture wars issues to the fore so that the oligarchs can continue to fleece us. It is why Faragism, Trumpism and Putinism all look so alike.
I am delighted Dorries has joined Reform
Even if I am the last one standing, I will still vote conservative even in next years Senedd vote but may well vote Plaid at the next GE to keep out labour in our constituency
Next time I expect the Labour vote will shrink to near zero if it’s perceived as a LD-Ref fight.
And for "all Reform's votes" to have come from the LibDems assumes an identical set of voters to last time, which is highly unlikely.
As we know, one of the reasons for Reform's electoral successes is that they get votes from those who have often not voted in previous elections.
Of course, given differential turnout it's unlikely the two sets of voters are all the same people.
Just think of it, you two will have the power to split the party.
Local by-elections often boil down to a) can you identify your support and b) can you get them to the polling station? Do those two well enough and you can overcome pretty bad fundamentals.
REPORTER: What legal authority did the Pentagon invoke to strike that boat?
PETE HEGSETH: We have the absolutely and complete authority
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1963785565347717182
Reports from Rayner's Ashton constitutuency voters are turning against her and seem to want Reform
The reason Reform are winning is the stark fact both the conservatives and labour have failed them, and the perception is they are all the same but Reform are new
https://x.com/telegraph/status/1963640778099466363?s=61
So a higher rate taxpayer pays ~50% on their marginal income paying themselves this way. A lower rate one pays 31.5%. If you compare with the total tax take for a salaried employee you’ll find the figures are roughly comparable - an employee earning £50k pays 30% of their total cost of employment in taxes (income tax + NI + employers NI) and the marginal rate for a high income earner is 40-45% plus 15% employers NI on top.
Dividend taxes used to be much lower & it was a huge tax advantage to structure your income through a ltd company. These days, after administration costs you’re probably slightly worse off, but you do get the advantage of being able to structure your income in whatever way you choose, including the ability to spread lumpy income across multiple tax years which can make it worth the effort for some people.
If you play fast & loose with the corporate credit card you can push some of that income through as expenses of course, but you’re asking for trouble if HMRC ever comes knocking.
It's a local by-election, the only one of the week and we know Reform put a lot of effort into the seat. We also know contrary to the last contest, we had Conservative and Green candidates though their efforts were I suspect more nominal - something for supporters of what was once called "the natural party of Government" to explain perhaps.
Indeed, this contest got coverage in Reform's own paper, the Express. However, the LDs held Reform at bay - such defences are tough and other parties, including yours, have failed miserably against Reform.
A scare, certainly, and a recognition LD and Reform are often fishing in the same pool of non-committed, disillusioned voters, many of whom were former supporters of both Conservative and Labour.
Nick Robinson just asked John Curtice if the BBC giving a platform to Farage & Reform was responsible for their popularity; presumably hoping to hear the polling guru say a resounding "no".
Instead, Curtice said, "it's not just that, it's also how he uses it"
So the answer's clearly yes.
#r4today
I see nothing wrong with this. If he’s a freelance, and he will be, it makes sense I’ve worked with many who did this.
Many here do it and many in the media do
Perhaps we should simply make everyone PAYE then it is not an issue.
Except...
What would success look like? I think we all agree "not like this". The catch is that it really doesn't feel clear what a realistic path to success looks like. And bluntly, Faragism looks likely to make things worse. In a "I hate this hangover so I'm going to down a bottle of gin, easy on the tonic" way.
But I don't know how to make that message in the current environment.
The point that needs to be understood is that no matter how much complaining about coverage, Starmer is PM and has simply lost the narrative and seems to think being Farage lite is the way forward
The advisers who set up her trust (from where the Hove deposit came) say they were not involved in any aspect of the Hove purchase.
The tax barrister who said she’d underpaid stamp duty was only called in after the matter of how much she should pay became a matter of public controversy.
So from whom did the Deputy PM seek tax advice on the stamp duty she should pay on the Hove home?’
https://x.com/afneil/status/1963860046284300503?s=61
Nick Robinson takes Richard Tice apart (about 8.05)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live/bbc_radio_fourfm
Treating Nigel Lawson as if he is as qualified as actual climate scientists
Giving Farage and his various parties far more coverage than their then representation / polling warranted
EDL / Tommy Robinson - Newsnight did a profile several years ago, think it was Katie Razzall
The UK does not need a Trump tribute act, but the responsibility now is for Starmer to change the narrative and direction of his government as he is PM for the next 4 years or so [ unless he is forced out]
I get that it can be annoying that it sometimes feel that he is getting an easy ride, but that is why it is so important for others to work to change the narrative. He is the manifestation of a lot of genuine grievance out there among voters right now. Perception of the issues needs to change if people like Farage are going to be seen in a different light; regardless of how many times the BBC mentions him.
Have you not seen the polls
Indeed it seems the more they are attacked the more popular they become
The PCP car finance model has encouraged people to buy new cars that they can't afford. This squeezes their remaining disposable income and makes them feel a lot worse off than they are, because they've saddled themselves with a crushing debt for a depreciating asset.
This has clearly been a victory of marketing for the car manufacturers, but there have been negative consequences for society as a whole, just as there were when gambling companies worked out how effective FOBTs could be at creating gambling addicts.
I think that if the government could spin down the PCP car finance model then the voters would find they had more disposable income and would feel better for it, even if they had a lower status motor.
Two thoughts this morning - first, as Chris Mason accurately states, it's a lose-lose for Starmer over Rayner. Does his political (and personal) need to keep her in Cabinet outweight the obvious negative impact this story has had and is having on the Government?
Clearly, if the Ethics committee find she has transgressed, his decision will be easier and he'll have some cover for that decision. If the committee rules she has done nothing wrong, he will again have some cover to retain her in post but the legacy impact of her remaining (particularly with the Housing brief) will be an issue.
Second, musing on another strong performance for Reform overnight, we will see in May 2026 the true depth of the party's organisation. Winning local by elections is one thing when you can get activists in from nearby but a nationwide set of contests as will be the case next year will be very different. I doubt even Reform can fight everywhere (i'm not expecting to see much of them in Newham for example despite the fact Baxter claims on the latest poll they would win East Ham from Labour) so they will need to play to their strengths.
The other question is whether the tide will still be flowing for them by then and how they will be if it isn't - that doesn't mean they'll crash to 5% in the polls but if their polling settles at 25-30% they'll need to get their supporters out to have the big impact they need.
I have seen no-one suggest they were merely enjoying the right of innocent passage.
It turned out that BJ was pretty much the only person in politics who wasn’t using a personal company. He was paying the full wack - ICT and NI.
It also came out that Ken was using a personal company for his paid media appearances.
We’ve debated why BJ did this. I think it is significant that he dropped using a personal company just before the MPs expense scandal - MPs expenses were becoming a political issue before, which is why there was such an appetite for the scandal.
This is, of course, why lawyers (or at least the sensible ones) take detailed notes of conversations with their clients.
Or rather the lesson that she 'learned' was that she could not declare things properly and then obfuscate her way through difficulties by vaguely refer to 'advice'.
In a way Rayner has followed Boris in not realising that at a certain level you've got to do things properly.
Now that is one way to take Farage our of the media, because no matter the ethics advisors advice Raynergate is about to be this weekends media story
To me I think the thing that gets her to safety is a written email or piece of advice from a lawyer she has personally engaged to provide it, saying she is in the clear. The fact that nobody so far has said that she was in receipt of full written advice from a retained solicitor suggests to me this might be something more casual (obviously I don’t know). That would be more of a problem for her and leads to a possible conclusion of - she asked some questions, but wasn’t robust enough in confirming the situation or ensuring she had the benefit of written formal advice from a retained lawyer.
Stopsley is very Lib Demmy vote wise. There were boundary changes priot to 2022 but Lib Dems have held the ward named Stopsley throughout the 21st century with big majorities.
That said its a good hold but shows the LD anti Reform sauce is much more effective in the more Lib Dem friendly demographic areas of leafy sleepy shiretown
Its poor for Labour and its a shocker for the Tories - under the old boundaries theyd slways at least beat Labour and get a decent % towards 30%. Dont take a cycle off!
Your man in the street wouldn’t normally be that bothered by somebody avoiding stamp duty in the way Rayner has because, let’s face it, we’d all do it if we could. The crime in the eyes of voters is the chasm between the morally superior, pious tone adopted in the last parliament by ‘Mr Rules & Integrity’ and the realisation that they’re all at it. It has been shown for what it always was - a hammily acted pretence designed to fool voters. That’s where the anger comes from
So perhaps Rayner needs to show evidence of payment for tax advice.
I am not missing the sound of a neighbour's TV.
You can hardly call the New Town's apartments or Morningside tenements slums. Indeed, countries like Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland all have higher standards of living than we do, and a much higher proportion of people living in flats.
Despite how it feels, objectively, I'm pretty well off. I always tick one of the top two boxes in surveys. There are a lot worse off than me. And yet as a family, we run a fairly bog standard VW and an ancient Ford. Both of which we bought with money rather than finance. If you were to judge how well off we were by our cars, we would be distinctly mid range at best.
It used to be that you could tell how affluent a neighbourhood you were in by the cars as much as the houses - as you crossed into Wythenshawe the cars got notably older, rustier and smaller. But no longer - walk down the street in Wythenshawe and Ardwick and you will see half a dozen newer or shinier or posher cars than I think I could afford. It's encouraging to see signs of wealth in areas like this. But also surprising that people would choose to allocate so much of their resources to a car.