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Angela’s ambitions in ashes? – politicalbetting.com

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  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,539

    I am trying to dovetail Neil Oliver into Cabinet. I'm struggling, any ideas?

    Scottish Secretary.
  • vino said:

    DavidL said:

    vino said:

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 31% (+1)
    RFM: 21% (+14)
    LAB: 17% (-18)
    CON: 11% (-2)
    LDM: 11% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    , 21 Aug - 1 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Catastrophic poll for Labour. I mean the SNP have been shocking and they have lost half their vote?
    To keep out the SNP will Labour, Tories and Lib Dems all tactical vote for Reform?
    Or is the SNP the lesser evil?
    It's the other way round. The Reform vote is evenly spread across Scotland. They will be in third place in virtually every seat.
    I was revisiting the Yougov Feb 2025 MRP earlier. They had Ref winning 3 Scottish seats - Dumfries, Dumfriesshire and Ayr. On top of that. Reform were in range (within 10 percentage points of the leader) in another 14 seats (basically not Glasgow or Edinburgh but more small town seats such as Bathgate and Linlithgow) with strength in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire (I guess due to being pro-oil and gas)

    e.g. Aberdeen North - SNP 26%, Lab 22%, Ref 22%

    Of course, they are to an extent relying on SNP/Lab vote being split. They need disenchanted Lab voters going to them more than to the SNP
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,879

    I am trying to dovetail Neil Oliver into Cabinet. I'm struggling, any ideas?

    The Gildroy Lockheart brief?
  • I am trying to dovetail Neil Oliver into Cabinet. I'm struggling, any ideas?

    Environment Minister, as net zero minister will be gone.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,073
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Read that Guardian report from Rayner’s constituency. They couldn’t find one single supportive voice

    She’s finished

    The problem is the size of the numbers, £800k for a house, £40k not paid in tax. People from those sort of backgrounds are hearing that and thinking my take home pay for 2 years is £40k, my house is worth a fraction of that. And then the PM / Big Ange is going but I am just a humble working class lass, how am I supposed to know about tax and stuff.
    Yes exactly. £40k is a wonderland of money to many people. Two years total salary, as you say

    For “working class ange” it’s an annoying tax bill she can easily afford - given her very large salary and expenses - but preferred to dodge

    It’s fatal. She’s fatally wounded. She may limp on for a while but it’s not going to last
    She won’t be limping anywhere if she’s broken the ministerial code . It’s over then .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,738
    Jonathan Hinder MP
    @Jonathan_Hinder

    A new force

    Definitely never seen before

    Ready to shake up British politics

    🥸

    https://x.com/Jonathan_Hinder/status/1963680698281378174
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,879

    Fuck, Andrew Wakefield will be Reform's Health Secretary.

    Isn't he too busy dating super models these days?
    They broke up.
    Vaccines work!
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,477
    It's probably been mentioned already, but I think, from what little I have read, that Rayner's marriage problems tell more about her than this scandal (or, if you prefer, this "scandal").
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,257
    edited September 4
    nico67 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Read that Guardian report from Rayner’s constituency. They couldn’t find one single supportive voice

    She’s finished

    The problem is the size of the numbers, £800k for a house, £40k not paid in tax. People from those sort of backgrounds are hearing that and thinking my take home pay for 2 years is £40k, my house is worth a fraction of that. And then the PM / Big Ange is going but I am just a humble working class lass, how am I supposed to know about tax and stuff.
    Yes exactly. £40k is a wonderland of money to many people. Two years total salary, as you say

    For “working class ange” it’s an annoying tax bill she can easily afford - given her very large salary and expenses - but preferred to dodge

    It’s fatal. She’s fatally wounded. She may limp on for a while but it’s not going to last
    She won’t be limping anywhere if she’s broken the ministerial code . It’s over then .
    I can see the classic fudge, unintentionally broken the rules, knocked back over the net to Starmer...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,738
    nico67 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Read that Guardian report from Rayner’s constituency. They couldn’t find one single supportive voice

    She’s finished

    The problem is the size of the numbers, £800k for a house, £40k not paid in tax. People from those sort of backgrounds are hearing that and thinking my take home pay for 2 years is £40k, my house is worth a fraction of that. And then the PM / Big Ange is going but I am just a humble working class lass, how am I supposed to know about tax and stuff.
    Yes exactly. £40k is a wonderland of money to many people. Two years total salary, as you say

    For “working class ange” it’s an annoying tax bill she can easily afford - given her very large salary and expenses - but preferred to dodge

    It’s fatal. She’s fatally wounded. She may limp on for a while but it’s not going to last
    She won’t be limping anywhere if she’s broken the ministerial code . It’s over then .
    "Read that Guardian report from Rayner’s constituency. They couldn’t find one single supportive voice"

    Chris Mason managed to find several in her constituency who supported her.
  • vinovino Posts: 199

    vino said:

    DavidL said:

    vino said:

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 31% (+1)
    RFM: 21% (+14)
    LAB: 17% (-18)
    CON: 11% (-2)
    LDM: 11% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    , 21 Aug - 1 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Catastrophic poll for Labour. I mean the SNP have been shocking and they have lost half their vote?
    To keep out the SNP will Labour, Tories and Lib Dems all tactical vote for Reform?
    Or is the SNP the lesser evil?
    It's the other way round. The Reform vote is evenly spread across Scotland. They will be in third place in virtually every seat.
    On those poll results, they could pick up around 25 list seats, so could still be the second placed party.
    It's a Scottish Westminster poll not a Scottish Parliament one
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,899
    edited September 4

    Fuck, Andrew Wakefield will be Reform's Health Secretary.

    Isn't he too busy dating super models these days?
    That was an Elle of a long time ago.

    Elle the (don't vaccinate my) body has been with Renee Zellweger's former squeeze, musician Doyle Bramall III since 2022.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,738
    edited September 4

    I am trying to dovetail Neil Oliver into Cabinet. I'm struggling, any ideas?

    Scottish Secretary.
    There's a Minister for the Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,855
    @axios.com‬

    The Justice Department's acting deputy chief was caught on a hidden camera saying that the government will "redact every Republican" from an Epstein client list and "leave all the liberal, Democratic people."

    https://bsky.app/profile/axios.com/post/3ly236amcx22a
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,257
    edited September 4

    Fuck, Andrew Wakefield will be Reform's Health Secretary.

    Isn't he too busy dating super models these days?
    That was an Elle of a long time ago.

    Elle the (don't vaccinate my) body has been with Renee Zellweger's former squeeze, musician Doyle Bramall III since 2022.
    I unfortunately don't have time to keep up with celebrity tittle tattle. I was just remembering from COVID era when obviously his name surfaced again. Normally its a merry go round and they all jump on the next unattached celeb, has he not found another lonely model?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,788

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
  • eekeek Posts: 31,115
    edited September 4
    Scott_xP said:

    @axios.com‬

    The Justice Department's acting deputy chief was caught on a hidden camera saying that the government will "redact every Republican" from an Epstein client list and "leave all the liberal, Democratic people."

    https://bsky.app/profile/axios.com/post/3ly236amcx22a

    You would have thought they would be identifying and redacting anyone who was there with Trump so there wasn't any chance of embarrassing cross examination questions..
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,738

    Nigel Farage wants to create a US-style Cabinet of “all the talents”, with outsiders running government departments, if he wins the next general election. As many of half of the Cabinet ministers in a Reform UK government could be members of the House of Lords rather than elected MPs, as is traditional.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/04/nigel-farage-reform-uk-zia-yusuf-government-conference/

    So who are these 'talents' ?

    Given that Farage would have to say who they are before an election there would be nothing to stop them actually standing in a constituency.
    I'll wager they are all whackos whoever these "talents" are.

    He seems to be determined to follow Trump step-by-step and so that means a Cabinet of absolute whack jobs from GB News who will support the PM no matter what.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,257
    edited September 4
    I notice Andy Burnham sharp elbowed his way into the BBC documentary about the ripped off footballers. Anybody would think he might be trying to raise his nation profile again.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,746

    isam said:

    isam said:

    💸 Angela Rayner’s family home was valued at almost twice the amount of other recently sold properties on her street when she sold a stake to her disabled son’s trust so she could buy a holiday home

    Read more 👇


    https://x.com/telegraph/status/1963642234475065671?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    That's one thing I was curious about - £650k must get you a house which is nice, big and in the best part of Ashton under Lyne.

    Rightmove has currently three houses for sale for over £600k in Ashton and one of them hasn't even been built yet.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?searchLocation=Ashton-Under-Lyne,+Greater+Manchester&useLocationIdentifier=true&locationIdentifier=REGION^61&radius=0.0&minPrice=600000&_includeSSTC=on&index=0&sortType=2&channel=BUY&transactionType=BUY&displayLocationIdentifier=Ashton-Under-Lyne.html
    Only 6 of the last 10,500 properties sold in Ashton Under Lyme went for 650k or more, although I guess you’d expect Rayner to have one of the posher ones
    You've never been to Trashton have you?
    Oi - I was born in Trashton
    My condolences, I can understand why you moved to Aberdeenshire.
    My father pre war was manager of the Pru in Ashton
    A fair portion of my extended family manned Ashton Fire Station, I think my grandfather was Station Commander at one point.

    And I went to school and college there for 7 years.
  • Leon said:

    Read that Guardian report from Rayner’s constituency. They couldn’t find one single supportive voice

    She’s finished

    The problem is the size of the numbers, £800k for a house, £40k not paid in tax. People from those sort of backgrounds are hearing that and thinking my take home pay for 2 years is £40k, my house is worth a fraction of that. And then the PM / Big Ange is going but I am just a humble working class lass, how am I supposed to know about tax and stuff.
    Its £800k for a flat.

    Although there will be many people in Ashton astonished at the £650k house that Rayner had.

    For comparison the average detached house price in the borough of Tameside is £358k:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/housingpriceslocal/E08000008/

    and the average flat price in Brighton and Hove is £304k:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/housingpriceslocal/E06000043/
  • eekeek Posts: 31,115

    I notice Andy Burnham sharp elbowed his way into the BBC documentary about the ripped off footballers. Anybody would think he might be trying to raise his nation profile again.

    And why were they ripped off - because they were trying to enter investment schemes where tax minimisation was the primary sales pitch...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,257
    edited September 4

    Leon said:

    Read that Guardian report from Rayner’s constituency. They couldn’t find one single supportive voice

    She’s finished

    The problem is the size of the numbers, £800k for a house, £40k not paid in tax. People from those sort of backgrounds are hearing that and thinking my take home pay for 2 years is £40k, my house is worth a fraction of that. And then the PM / Big Ange is going but I am just a humble working class lass, how am I supposed to know about tax and stuff.
    Its £800k for a flat.

    Although there will be many people in Ashton astonished at the £650k house that Rayner had.

    For comparison the average detached house price in the borough of Tameside is £358k:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/housingpriceslocal/E08000008/

    and the average flat price in Brighton and Hove is £304k:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/housingpriceslocal/E06000043/
    They don't sell £800k flats, they only sell £800k apartments and Studio Lofts :-)
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,477
    cyclefree - It's good to see you. I think you bring a lot to this site.

    An example: Many years ago, I read the argument that the ideal for a man was an English education, an American salary, and a Japanese wife. (Presumably from an Englishman.)

    At the time, I didn't think about that from the point of view of the Japanese wife. But I try to, now, partly because of people like you.

    (Not enough Japanese and Korean men have figured that out -- which goes far to explain their low marriage rates, and low fertility rates.)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,086
    Foxy said:

    Fuck, Andrew Wakefield will be Reform's Health Secretary.

    Isn't he too busy dating super models these days?
    They broke up.
    Vaccines work!
    It’s really sad that centuries after Jenner we have people in positions of power who think the opposite. For sure vaccine skepticism isn’t just down to Wakefield, but he has played a huge part in undermining one of humanities greatest success stories.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,307
    edited September 4
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Read that Guardian report from Rayner’s constituency. They couldn’t find one single supportive voice

    She’s finished

    The problem is the size of the numbers, £800k for a house, £40k not paid in tax. People from those sort of backgrounds are hearing that and thinking my take home pay for 2 years is £40k, my house is worth a fraction of that. And then the PM / Big Ange is going but I am just a humble working class lass, how am I supposed to know about tax and stuff.
    Yes exactly. £40k is a wonderland of money to many people. Two years total salary, as you say

    For “working class ange” it’s an annoying tax bill she can easily afford - given her very large salary and expenses - but preferred to dodge

    It’s fatal. She’s fatally wounded. She may limp on for a while but it’s not going to last
    Technically it may be two years salary for a lot of people but in reality most of them wouldn't actually see £40k in savings for perhaps 10 years at best if they saved most of their earnings.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,899

    Fuck, Andrew Wakefield will be Reform's Health Secretary.

    Isn't he too busy dating super models these days?
    That was an Elle of a long time ago.

    Elle the (don't vaccinate my) body has been with Renee Zellweger's former squeeze, musician Doyle Bramall III since 2022.
    I unfortunately don't have time to keep up with celebrity tittle tattle. I was just remembering from COVID era when obviously his name surfaced again. Normally its a merry go round and they all jump on the next unattached celeb, has he not found another lonely model?
    Wakefield is such a malign character I couldn't care less who he is with. Thousands of children dying of measles because of his bullshit is almost as big a scandal as Rayner's stamp duty issue.

    Now, vax-sceptic Elle on the other hand? If only we'd met I am sure her head would have been turned.*

    * NB. I didn't say in which direction.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,257
    edited September 4
    eek said:

    I notice Andy Burnham sharp elbowed his way into the BBC documentary about the ripped off footballers. Anybody would think he might be trying to raise his nation profile again.

    And why were they ripped off - because they were trying to enter investment schemes where tax minimisation was the primary sales pitch...
    The one thing that really stuck out for me was these claims over the apartments they bought and over leveraged themselves. They did not appear to have even a) visited the sites and b) even looked at what the average home went in that area, and then went well it was very unfair we paid way over the odds for them. I mean who buys an £800k flat without getting proper independent legal advice....
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Read that Guardian report from Rayner’s constituency. They couldn’t find one single supportive voice

    She’s finished

    The problem is the size of the numbers, £800k for a house, £40k not paid in tax. People from those sort of backgrounds are hearing that and thinking my take home pay for 2 years is £40k, my house is worth a fraction of that. And then the PM / Big Ange is going but I am just a humble working class lass, how am I supposed to know about tax and stuff.
    Yes exactly. £40k is a wonderland of money to many people. Two years total salary, as you say

    For “working class ange” it’s an annoying tax bill she can easily afford - given her very large salary and expenses - but preferred to dodge

    It’s fatal. She’s fatally wounded. She may limp on for a while but it’s not going to last
    It's not just about whether she stays as Deputy PM. Gonna be very hard to win re-election in Ashton in 28/29 and not looking that appealing for Sussex Labour either.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,073

    nico67 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Read that Guardian report from Rayner’s constituency. They couldn’t find one single supportive voice

    She’s finished

    The problem is the size of the numbers, £800k for a house, £40k not paid in tax. People from those sort of backgrounds are hearing that and thinking my take home pay for 2 years is £40k, my house is worth a fraction of that. And then the PM / Big Ange is going but I am just a humble working class lass, how am I supposed to know about tax and stuff.
    Yes exactly. £40k is a wonderland of money to many people. Two years total salary, as you say

    For “working class ange” it’s an annoying tax bill she can easily afford - given her very large salary and expenses - but preferred to dodge

    It’s fatal. She’s fatally wounded. She may limp on for a while but it’s not going to last
    She won’t be limping anywhere if she’s broken the ministerial code . It’s over then .
    I can see the classic fudge, unintentionally broken the rules, knocked back over the net to Starmer...
    Not sure how they can fudge it unless she has written evidence of the advice she was given . Starmer would much rather there was a clear ruling .
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,564
    Am flabbergasted to read that Nadine is the third ex-Cabinet Minister to defect to Reform.
    And people still say this Cabinet is lightweight.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,414

    Nigel Farage wants to create a US-style Cabinet of “all the talents”, with outsiders running government departments, if he wins the next general election. As many of half of the Cabinet ministers in a Reform UK government could be members of the House of Lords rather than elected MPs, as is traditional.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/04/nigel-farage-reform-uk-zia-yusuf-government-conference/

    I wonder who he'll choose to be our answer to RFK Jr.
    David Icke
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,257
    edited September 4
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Read that Guardian report from Rayner’s constituency. They couldn’t find one single supportive voice

    She’s finished

    The problem is the size of the numbers, £800k for a house, £40k not paid in tax. People from those sort of backgrounds are hearing that and thinking my take home pay for 2 years is £40k, my house is worth a fraction of that. And then the PM / Big Ange is going but I am just a humble working class lass, how am I supposed to know about tax and stuff.
    Yes exactly. £40k is a wonderland of money to many people. Two years total salary, as you say

    For “working class ange” it’s an annoying tax bill she can easily afford - given her very large salary and expenses - but preferred to dodge

    It’s fatal. She’s fatally wounded. She may limp on for a while but it’s not going to last
    She won’t be limping anywhere if she’s broken the ministerial code . It’s over then .
    I can see the classic fudge, unintentionally broken the rules, knocked back over the net to Starmer...
    Not sure how they can fudge it unless she has written evidence of the advice she was given . Starmer would much rather there was a clear ruling .
    Quite easily, there was never anything to tell her this was wrong, but nothing to tell her it was right either. Miscommunication between the parties, all very complicated personal life, woopsie, back to you Keith.

    We have seen loads of these investigations over the years where this is the sort of result that is presented. Just bad enough to say wrong has been done, but couldn't say for certain it was deliberate e.g. inquiry into Mandy passport scandal cleared him of impropriety and lies.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,899

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,086

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
    PBTories don’t want to throw their lot in with Nigel, they want their Tory party back. Get Cameron back in, get back to the centre and pray.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,879

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
    PBTories don’t want to throw their lot in with Nigel, they want their Tory party back. Get Cameron back in, get back to the centre and pray.
    Like that is going to happen 😂😂😂
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,899

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
    PBTories don’t want to throw their lot in with Nigel, they want their Tory party back. Get Cameron back in, get back to the centre and pray.
    Bobby J. has heeded your clarion call. He's on his way.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,257
    edited September 4

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
    PBTories don’t want to throw their lot in with Nigel, they want their Tory party back. Get Cameron back in, get back to the centre and pray.
    I think there is more chance of me dating a super model....For context, I do have a doctorate, but haven't been involved in a vaccine scandal nor can I play the guitar.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,307
    Andrew Marr in the New Statesman.

    "The Common Good Foundation has published a report on demographic changes in Britain, Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow, led by the moderate Tory peer Robin Hodgson. It argues that the UK population, which has increased by 9.2 million over the past 20 years, can be expected to grow by a further 6.6 million over the next decade, overwhelmingly because of immigration. The UK will become by far the most densely populated major European country, affecting almost every aspect of life. Hodgson says governments “should be expected to monitor and disclose the likely level of population change in the near term” and calls for a new Office for Demographic Change."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/09/the-lefts-immigration-failure
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,899
    I've been on here for far, far too long today.

    Now the dementer has resurfaced that must be a sign. And we'd all been playing so nicely.

    Nighty, night.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,414

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
    PBTories don’t want to throw their lot in with Nigel, they want their Tory party back. Get Cameron back in, get back to the centre and pray.
    You need to invent a time machine, go back to 2010 and tell Cameron that if you really want to have an EU Referendum, don't do austerity first.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,086

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
    PBTories don’t want to throw their lot in with Nigel, they want their Tory party back. Get Cameron back in, get back to the centre and pray.
    Bobby J. has heeded your clarion call. He's on his way.
    Dear god no. Cameron. Seriously. Best chance of avoiding total wipeout.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,086
    CatMan said:

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
    PBTories don’t want to throw their lot in with Nigel, they want their Tory party back. Get Cameron back in, get back to the centre and pray.
    You need to invent a time machine, go back to 2010 and tell Cameron that if you really want to have an EU Referendum, don't do austerity first.
    Sadly they never actually did austerity. They just called it that. Look at what Canada did in an actual austerity.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,560
    edited September 4
    eek said:

    CatMan said:

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
    PBTories don’t want to throw their lot in with Nigel, they want their Tory party back. Get Cameron back in, get back to the centre and pray.
    You need to invent a time machine, go back to 2010 and tell Cameron that if you really want to have an EU Referendum, don't do austerity first.
    Sadly they never actually did austerity. They just called it that. Look at what Canada did in an actual austerity.
    They stopped spending money at the very moment they could have invested billions at very low interest rates... As I said yesterday it's that lack of investment which has come back to bite them continually since 2016...
    Yes. They won't be regarded highly hy posterity for.this, I expect. The era of complacent dogma, and missed opportunities.

    Now we await Farage.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,942
    dixiedean said:

    Am flabbergasted to read that Nadine is the third ex-Cabinet Minister to defect to Reform.
    And people still say this Cabinet is lightweight.

    To be fair, there were lot of cabinets for a while...
  • eekeek Posts: 31,115

    eek said:

    CatMan said:

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
    PBTories don’t want to throw their lot in with Nigel, they want their Tory party back. Get Cameron back in, get back to the centre and pray.
    You need to invent a time machine, go back to 2010 and tell Cameron that if you really want to have an EU Referendum, don't do austerity first.
    Sadly they never actually did austerity. They just called it that. Look at what Canada did in an actual austerity.
    They stopped spending money at the very moment they could have invested billions at very low interest rates... As I said yesterday it's that lack of investment which has come back to bite them continually since 2016...
    Yes. They won't be regarded highly hy posterity for.this, I suspect. The era of complacent dogma, and missed opportunities.

    Now we await Farage.
    When it comes to Chancellors since 2010 - it's actually hard to find one that did a decent job - you probably end up with Rishi but even then he just did what was necessary under the circumstances of Covid.

    I mean the list is

    George Osborne (2010-2016) - Austerity (creator of future problems and Brexit as austerity was really what people voted against)
    Philip Hammond (2016-2019) - who
    Sajid Javid (2019-2020) - left quickly
    Rishi Sunak (2020-2022) - Covid
    Nadhim Zahawi (2022) - lawyer loving tax avoider
    Kwasi Kwarteng (2022) - didn't stand up to Truss
    Jeremy Hunt (2022-2024) - cut £15bn of tax revenue that turned out to be essential...

    None of them are a Darling, Brown, Clarke, Major or Lawson...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,368

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
    PBTories don’t want to throw their lot in with Nigel, they want their Tory party back. Get Cameron back in, get back to the centre and pray.
    Seems pretty clear to me that the faction of Tory members/voters who like Reform's energy and approach is higher than the faction which dislikes Farage and his motley crew. It's hard to see how they recover whilst that is the case, and what would make them change their minds?

    Cameron? Of course not. Kemi? Doesn't seem likely. Jenrick? The ultimate chameleon, hard to see it working. Farage tripping himself up? More than anything else he's already said/done?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,452
    Prisoner Cell Block H is on 5Select at the moment… I looked it up on wiki… 8 Series, 692 episodes!!

    I used to watch it on itv late Thursday nights in the early 90s after a night out in Romford
  • It's probably been mentioned already, but I think, from what little I have read, that Rayner's marriage problems tell more about her than this scandal (or, if you prefer, this "scandal").

    "LOCK HER UP!"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,325
    Andy_JS said:

    Andrew Marr in the New Statesman.

    "The Common Good Foundation has published a report on demographic changes in Britain, Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow, led by the moderate Tory peer Robin Hodgson. It argues that the UK population, which has increased by 9.2 million over the past 20 years, can be expected to grow by a further 6.6 million over the next decade, overwhelmingly because of immigration. The UK will become by far the most densely populated major European country, affecting almost every aspect of life. Hodgson says governments “should be expected to monitor and disclose the likely level of population change in the near term” and calls for a new Office for Demographic Change."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/09/the-lefts-immigration-failure

    Ummm: the UK will not become more densely populated than the Netherlands.

    And we're already a lot more densely populated than Spain, Germany, Italy, France or Poland.

    So, while I agree with the general thesis about two much immigration, the population density argument a relative weak one.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,738
    isam said:

    Prisoner Cell Block H is on 5Select at the moment… I looked it up on wiki… 8 Series, 692 episodes!!

    I used to watch it on itv late Thursday nights in the early 90s after a night out in Romford

    Oh my, I remember dimly watching that show. I feel old.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,738
    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    6m
    JUST IN: Donald Trump will sign an executive order Friday to rename the Department of Defense as the Department of War, Fox News reports.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,307
    isam said:

    Prisoner Cell Block H is on 5Select at the moment… I looked it up on wiki… 8 Series, 692 episodes!!

    I used to watch it on itv late Thursday nights in the early 90s after a night out in Romford

    I watched all 692 episodes during the covid lockdowns. Embarrassing I know.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,879
    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
    PBTories don’t want to throw their lot in with Nigel, they want their Tory party back. Get Cameron back in, get back to the centre and pray.
    Seems pretty clear to me that the faction of Tory members/voters who like Reform's energy and approach is higher than the faction which dislikes Farage and his motley crew. It's hard to see how they recover whilst that is the case, and what would make them change their minds?

    Cameron? Of course not. Kemi? Doesn't seem likely. Jenrick? The ultimate chameleon, hard to see it working. Farage tripping himself up? More than anything else he's already said/done?
    Reform are recruiting a bunch of time expired Tories, from Mad Nad to our PCC in Leics.

    It's not going to be easy to campaign as the party to smash the elite, when just a few years ago their members were that elite (though to be fair they do have form at smashing that elite).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,307
    edited September 4
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andrew Marr in the New Statesman.

    "The Common Good Foundation has published a report on demographic changes in Britain, Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow, led by the moderate Tory peer Robin Hodgson. It argues that the UK population, which has increased by 9.2 million over the past 20 years, can be expected to grow by a further 6.6 million over the next decade, overwhelmingly because of immigration. The UK will become by far the most densely populated major European country, affecting almost every aspect of life. Hodgson says governments “should be expected to monitor and disclose the likely level of population change in the near term” and calls for a new Office for Demographic Change."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/09/the-lefts-immigration-failure

    Ummm: the UK will not become more densely populated than the Netherlands.

    And we're already a lot more densely populated than Spain, Germany, Italy, France or Poland.

    So, while I agree with the general thesis about two much immigration, the population density argument a relative weak one.
    Is England more densely populated than the Netherlands? I think it may be.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,452
    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    Prisoner Cell Block H is on 5Select at the moment… I looked it up on wiki… 8 Series, 692 episodes!!

    I used to watch it on itv late Thursday nights in the early 90s after a night out in Romford

    I watched all 692 episodes during the covid lockdowns. Embarrassing I know.
    I just found my favourite clip of it on YouTube - Ferguson tells Bea Smith she has a visitor, Smith replies “ hope he’s big, butch and handsome” Ferguson says “2 out of the 3”… and it’s Judy!!
  • isamisam Posts: 42,452
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
    PBTories don’t want to throw their lot in with Nigel, they want their Tory party back. Get Cameron back in, get back to the centre and pray.
    Seems pretty clear to me that the faction of Tory members/voters who like Reform's energy and approach is higher than the faction which dislikes Farage and his motley crew. It's hard to see how they recover whilst that is the case, and what would make them change their minds?

    Cameron? Of course not. Kemi? Doesn't seem likely. Jenrick? The ultimate chameleon, hard to see it working. Farage tripping himself up? More than anything else he's already said/done?
    Reform are recruiting a bunch of time expired Tories, from Mad Nad to our PCC in Leics.

    It's not going to be easy to campaign as the party to smash the elite, when just a few years ago their members were that elite (though to be fair they do have form at smashing that elite).
    Dorries has written books about the cabal at the top of the Tory party, so she’s not an obvious part of the elite really
  • Rayner is definitely safe....

    On the @itvnews Robert Peston @peston has just said: "Tomorrow, it looks to me as though the Prime Minister may well have to ask for her resignation"
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,591
    On Euston station, if anyone has half an hour for a look at something interesting, I recommend the caryatids in the North and South porches at the 1819 Greek Revival St Pancras New Church which is just across the road.

    It's the only one known to me with these - Greek style figures used as columns - in the country, and is just across the road.

    https://maps.app.goo.gl/tE3oUfc1Ts67wpgp9

    IanVisits article about it, with a piccie of the interior, which was built to seat 2500.

    Open 11-2 6 days a week, or (I assume) service times on Sundays. Art gallery in the crypt.

    https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/articles/inside-the-200-year-old-st-pancras-new-church-56018/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,879
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andrew Marr in the New Statesman.

    "The Common Good Foundation has published a report on demographic changes in Britain, Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow, led by the moderate Tory peer Robin Hodgson. It argues that the UK population, which has increased by 9.2 million over the past 20 years, can be expected to grow by a further 6.6 million over the next decade, overwhelmingly because of immigration. The UK will become by far the most densely populated major European country, affecting almost every aspect of life. Hodgson says governments “should be expected to monitor and disclose the likely level of population change in the near term” and calls for a new Office for Demographic Change."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/09/the-lefts-immigration-failure

    Ummm: the UK will not become more densely populated than the Netherlands.

    And we're already a lot more densely populated than Spain, Germany, Italy, France or Poland.

    So, while I agree with the general thesis about two much immigration, the population density argument a relative weak one.
    Is England more densely populated than the Netherlands? I think it may be.
    Pretty similar, but we still have loads of space, as you can see from any A road or Railway.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,879
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
    PBTories don’t want to throw their lot in with Nigel, they want their Tory party back. Get Cameron back in, get back to the centre and pray.
    Seems pretty clear to me that the faction of Tory members/voters who like Reform's energy and approach is higher than the faction which dislikes Farage and his motley crew. It's hard to see how they recover whilst that is the case, and what would make them change their minds?

    Cameron? Of course not. Kemi? Doesn't seem likely. Jenrick? The ultimate chameleon, hard to see it working. Farage tripping himself up? More than anything else he's already said/done?
    Reform are recruiting a bunch of time expired Tories, from Mad Nad to our PCC in Leics.

    It's not going to be easy to campaign as the party to smash the elite, when just a few years ago their members were that elite (though to be fair they do have form at smashing that elite).
    Dorries has written books about the cabal at the top of the Tory party, so she’s not an obvious part of the elite really
    She was a cabinet minister in the Tory government.

    If that isn't an elite position then what is?
  • Is the first tweet turns out to be correct she will be f##led over lying / cover up / attempted deflection. So often it is that rather than the initial story that does for you.

    It quites different to go around saying I did everything proppa that my lawyers told me to do and they were wrong compared to i did everything proppa that my lawyers told me to do when the lawyers we said no such thing nor were we asked.

    No, point 3 of the first tweet says the firm calculated stamp duty using the HMRC calculator. That presumably is what Rayner means. The fact they'd have come up with a different figure if they had taken the trust into account does not alter the fact they did calculate stamp duty.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,788
    edited September 4

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
    Nah. He's a Grade A shit.

    And the Tories are much more palatable without Nadine.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,942
    MattW said:

    On Euston station, if anyone has half an hour for a look at something interesting, I recommend the caryatids in the North and South porches at the 1819 Greek Revival St Pancras New Church which is just across the road.

    It's the only one known to me with these - Greek style figures used as columns - in the country, and is just across the road.

    https://maps.app.goo.gl/tE3oUfc1Ts67wpgp9

    IanVisits article about it, with a piccie of the interior, which was built to seat 2500.

    Open 11-2 6 days a week, or (I assume) service times on Sundays. Art gallery in the crypt.

    https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/articles/inside-the-200-year-old-st-pancras-new-church-56018/

    Not a church, but there's a whole street of the buggers in Cheltenham:


  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,307

    Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4
    ·
    36m
    Brace for lots of angry tweets about how rubbish Euston station is on here.

    Spoiler - Reform Party conference is in Birmingham.

    The lobby have to get the train from Euston station.

    Birmingham New Street and Euston are two stations I hate as much as pineapple on pizza.
    What's wrong with Euston? It's got a Hotel Chocolat, the good type of Leon, an M&S. There are some OK pubs. It's near Drummond Street if you want to go to a proper restaurant.
    My wife and I went from Colwyn Bay to Euston for lunch earlier this year before returning home for 6.00pm

    We had lovely food and service in The Signal Box so much so we will do it again

    Colwyn Bay to Euston in just 3 hours is an excellent service and wonderful not to drive and watch the world go by
    Had a drink there a few times. Nice place. Shame the book shop in the station only lasted a few months though. It seemed to be quite busy whenever I was there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,032

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
    Nah. He's a Grade A shit.

    And the Tories are much more palatable without Nadine.
    And a 1/3 of Tories would rather vote for Ed Davey's LDs than Farage's Reform
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,032
    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
    PBTories don’t want to throw their lot in with Nigel, they want their Tory party back. Get Cameron back in, get back to the centre and pray.
    Seems pretty clear to me that the faction of Tory members/voters who like Reform's energy and approach is higher than the faction which dislikes Farage and his motley crew. It's hard to see how they recover whilst that is the case, and what would make them change their minds?

    Cameron? Of course not. Kemi? Doesn't seem likely. Jenrick? The ultimate chameleon, hard to see it working. Farage tripping himself up? More than anything else he's already said/done?
    Get Cleverly in, hold the Sunak 2024 vote and hope Farage loses next time then get Jenrick in as Tory leader to reunite the right
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,032
    edited 12:23AM
    vino said:

    DavidL said:

    vino said:

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 31% (+1)
    RFM: 21% (+14)
    LAB: 17% (-18)
    CON: 11% (-2)
    LDM: 11% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    , 21 Aug - 1 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Catastrophic poll for Labour. I mean the SNP have been shocking and they have lost half their vote?
    To keep out the SNP will Labour, Tories and Lib Dems all tactical vote for Reform?
    Or is the SNP the lesser evil?
    Holyrood is PR so no need, on that poll there will be a Unionist majority in the Scottish Parliament next year anyway for the first time since 2011
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,565

    Also, whatever happened to government ministers putting everything into blind trust overseen by an expert. Pretty sure Blair government ministers did that? Then you always had somebody who would ensure legality over any house purchases, taxes due and you wouldn't be comprised over share dealing etc.

    Isn't that an American tradition (pre-Trump)?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,565
    Great euphemisms of our time: and his capacity for sharing in the dining and the toasting while on duty impressed all.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2025/09/04/robert-avery-interpreter-russian-navy-rukus-cold-war/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,070
    Here's what the solicitors I used for my transaction in 2018 said about stamp duty:

    Stamp Duty for Second Homes as from 01.04.16
    If, at the point of your purchase of this property you own another property (or have a share in another
    property) in the UK or anywhere else, and unless you are replacing your main home by selling it, then (in
    addition to standard stamp duty) the recent 3% stamp duty charge for second properties may apply.
    An assessment of liability for stamp duty (both in terms of the property and also your personal circumstances)
    is a maDer of personal taxation and whilst we can complete the necessary forms for you, the applicability of tax
    is a maDer for you to satisfy yourself on (we will invite you to approve and sign the tax return in due course).
    You are recommended to refer to an accountant/tax consultant for independent advice.
    There can be complex issues concerning stamp duty such as where a property may consist of an annex capable
    of independent living insofar as representing potential for stamp duty savings. This is something you would
    need to investigate with your surveyor and accountant. If your surveyor and accountant consider there is such
    a lawful scheme of potential saving available please would you let us know in writing or by email. We shall not
    otherwise be investigating any such scheme and do not give any warranty as to whether the property may or
    may not be subject to such a scheme.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,070

    Is the first tweet turns out to be correct she will be f##led over lying / cover up / attempted deflection. So often it is that rather than the initial story that does for you.

    It quites different to go around saying I did everything proppa that my lawyers told me to do and they were wrong compared to i did everything proppa that my lawyers told me to do when the lawyers we said no such thing nor were we asked.

    No, point 3 of the first tweet says the firm calculated stamp duty using the HMRC calculator. That presumably is what Rayner means. The fact they'd have come up with a different figure if they had taken the trust into account does not alter the fact they did calculate stamp duty.
    Having your conveyancers do a stamp duty calc is in no way shape or form 'taking legal advice' on the matter.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,804
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andrew Marr in the New Statesman.

    "The Common Good Foundation has published a report on demographic changes in Britain, Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow, led by the moderate Tory peer Robin Hodgson. It argues that the UK population, which has increased by 9.2 million over the past 20 years, can be expected to grow by a further 6.6 million over the next decade, overwhelmingly because of immigration. The UK will become by far the most densely populated major European country, affecting almost every aspect of life. Hodgson says governments “should be expected to monitor and disclose the likely level of population change in the near term” and calls for a new Office for Demographic Change."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/09/the-lefts-immigration-failure

    Ummm: the UK will not become more densely populated than the Netherlands.

    And we're already a lot more densely populated than Spain, Germany, Italy, France or Poland.

    So, while I agree with the general thesis about two much immigration, the population density argument a relative weak one.
    Is England more densely populated than the Netherlands? I think it may be.
    No.

    Netherlands population density for 2022 was 525.72
    England's population density was 434 in 2022.

    https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/nld/netherlands/population-density
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_Kingdom

    So currently a significant difference. So how many more people would we need to beat Netherlands current density?
    If we estimate the difference as 100 people per km2; England's area is 130,309km2. we would therefore need about 13 million extra people in England to beat Netherlands' density, if that remains static.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,804
    Extending this a little more: average people per house in England is 2.2. This means to increase the population by 13 million, we would need 6.5 million new houses in England. (*)

    With net housebuilding at about 200,000 per year, we would need 65 years to build enough houses to house the increased population.

    (*) I would expect immigrants to live with more people in each property, at least initially.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,565

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andrew Marr in the New Statesman.

    "The Common Good Foundation has published a report on demographic changes in Britain, Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow, led by the moderate Tory peer Robin Hodgson. It argues that the UK population, which has increased by 9.2 million over the past 20 years, can be expected to grow by a further 6.6 million over the next decade, overwhelmingly because of immigration. The UK will become by far the most densely populated major European country, affecting almost every aspect of life. Hodgson says governments “should be expected to monitor and disclose the likely level of population change in the near term” and calls for a new Office for Demographic Change."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/09/the-lefts-immigration-failure

    Ummm: the UK will not become more densely populated than the Netherlands.

    And we're already a lot more densely populated than Spain, Germany, Italy, France or Poland.

    So, while I agree with the general thesis about two much immigration, the population density argument a relative weak one.
    Is England more densely populated than the Netherlands? I think it may be.
    No.

    Netherlands population density for 2022 was 525.72
    England's population density was 434 in 2022.

    https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/nld/netherlands/population-density
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_Kingdom

    So currently a significant difference. So how many more people would we need to beat Netherlands current density?
    If we estimate the difference as 100 people per km2; England's area is 130,309km2. we would therefore need about 13 million extra people in England to beat Netherlands' density, if that remains static.
    It is a pretty meaningless metric since it averages population densities across cities and farmers' fields. For instance, in Wikipedia's list of English districts, the top 175 all have a higher population density than the Netherlands' 525/km², although whether anyone lives in tulip fields seems doubtful.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_districts_by_population_density
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,565
    Pulpstar said:

    Is the first tweet turns out to be correct she will be f##led over lying / cover up / attempted deflection. So often it is that rather than the initial story that does for you.

    It quites different to go around saying I did everything proppa that my lawyers told me to do and they were wrong compared to i did everything proppa that my lawyers told me to do when the lawyers we said no such thing nor were we asked.

    No, point 3 of the first tweet says the firm calculated stamp duty using the HMRC calculator. That presumably is what Rayner means. The fact they'd have come up with a different figure if they had taken the trust into account does not alter the fact they did calculate stamp duty.
    Having your conveyancers do a stamp duty calc is in no way shape or form 'taking legal advice' on the matter.
    To the voter on the Clapham omnibus, who is less well informed on trust law than the average High Court judge, it looks exactly the same.

    Look, I was among the first on pb to say this was politically bad and could end any chance Rayner had of succeeding Keir Starmer, but this is not a vast criminal conspiracy. It's a cock-up. Ironically the part that poses most imminent danger might be parliament's rules on house-flipping which iirc brought down Hazel Blears during the expenses scandal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,812
    .

    Fuck, Andrew Wakefield will be Reform's Health Secretary.

    Isn't he too busy dating super models these days?
    He's divorced from Macpherson. Probably too busy anti-vaxx grifting in the US; I doubt being Health Secretary pays as much.

    He is a seriously evil man in my estimation, who never really paid for the immense damage done by his mendacity.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,812

    I am trying to dovetail Neil Oliver into Cabinet. I'm struggling, any ideas?

    Minister of state for borders (Coast), or Scottish Secretary.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,591
    edited 4:47AM
    An unusually straight-from-the-shoulder podcast discussing Nigel Farage from the News Agents, sitting on the sea front at Clacton, including a selection of vox pops as well as Emily Maitlis & Co being unusually blunt.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXB4G1YSp98

    I hadn't twigged that Farage is actually over there to promote GBNews, and the appearance at the Republican controlled committee in Congress was a sideshow; he walked out before his own question session had finished, and was willing to obfuscate about banning journalists from events and communication with Reform led councils.

    It is notable that Paul Marshall is also in the USA, also putting out a "please save us from the UK Government" type line.

    It will be interesting how Free Speech Nigel handles it at the Reform Conference this weekend. We may not hear, because his Party have banned some journalists who do not have opinions they like.

    I'll update a couple of points on my view:

    1 - I said I thought Reform would have to take action against their people or branches which are keen on Tommy Robinson & Co. Judging by his Washington performance, they could potentially jump the other way.
    2 - He could get defenestrated by his own constituency, since he's never seen there.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,447
    Why would there be a Scottish Secretary or even a Welsh one or one for Northern Ireland? We’re all British and it’s woke to think otherwise (would be the policy)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,812
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
    PBTories don’t want to throw their lot in with Nigel, they want their Tory party back. Get Cameron back in, get back to the centre and pray.
    Seems pretty clear to me that the faction of Tory members/voters who like Reform's energy and approach is higher than the faction which dislikes Farage and his motley crew. It's hard to see how they recover whilst that is the case, and what would make them change their minds?

    Cameron? Of course not. Kemi? Doesn't seem likely. Jenrick? The ultimate chameleon, hard to see it working. Farage tripping himself up? More than anything else he's already said/done?
    Reform are recruiting a bunch of time expired Tories, from Mad Nad to our PCC in Leics.

    It's not going to be easy to campaign as the party to smash the elite, when just a few years ago their members were that elite (though to be fair they do have form at smashing that elite).
    Dorries has written books about the cabal at the top of the Tory party, so she’s not an obvious part of the elite really
    She was a cabinet minister in the Tory government.

    If that isn't an elite position then what is?
    a select group that is superior in terms of ability or qualities to the rest of a group or society.

    I'm struggling to see it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,812
    Holy Bat S**t, GAO F-35 report doesn't get any better....core upgrades to enable Block 4 now slated for 2031-33, Engine will have to be re-designed at unknown cost - but highly unlikely that this work will port over to F-35B... UK is facing a future with an orphan aircraft...
    https://x.com/FTusa284/status/1963621841643200982
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,591
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow's Guardian front page

    'The conveyancing firm that Angela Rayner used to complete her purchase of an £800,000 flat on the south coast has said it did not offer her tax advice and completed her stamp duty return based only on information she provided'

    I will leave that there

    Parked - alongside Rayner's ambitions
    Will Andy Burnham fancy winning the forthcoming Ashton by-election?
    Not as much as Reform will...
    Come on you PBTories, throw your lot in with Nigel. You know you want to.
    PBTories don’t want to throw their lot in with Nigel, they want their Tory party back. Get Cameron back in, get back to the centre and pray.
    Seems pretty clear to me that the faction of Tory members/voters who like Reform's energy and approach is higher than the faction which dislikes Farage and his motley crew. It's hard to see how they recover whilst that is the case, and what would make them change their minds?

    Cameron? Of course not. Kemi? Doesn't seem likely. Jenrick? The ultimate chameleon, hard to see it working. Farage tripping himself up? More than anything else he's already said/done?
    Reform are recruiting a bunch of time expired Tories, from Mad Nad to our PCC in Leics.

    It's not going to be easy to campaign as the party to smash the elite, when just a few years ago their members were that elite (though to be fair they do have form at smashing that elite).
    Dorries has written books about the cabal at the top of the Tory party, so she’s not an obvious part of the elite really
    She was a cabinet minister in the Tory government.

    If that isn't an elite position then what is?
    At that stage weren't virtually all of them Ministers or Cabinet Ministers at one time or another? :smile:

    Just like in Corbyn's Labour.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,565
    Nigelb said:

    Holy Bat S**t, GAO F-35 report doesn't get any better....core upgrades to enable Block 4 now slated for 2031-33, Engine will have to be re-designed at unknown cost - but highly unlikely that this work will port over to F-35B... UK is facing a future with an orphan aircraft...
    https://x.com/FTusa284/status/1963621841643200982

    The important point to remember is that Britain does not need its own industry because we can always rely on foreign suppliers.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,591
    Zack Polanski campaigning in Clacton:

    https://youtu.be/lXB4G1YSp98?t=1412
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,812
    Will our governments finally grasp that Trump (and any likely GOP successor) is no longer an ally in any real sense to Europe ?

    We are still grossly underestimating the implications of that.
    And one possible future PM is an abject toady towards Trump.

    Bild and Axios: Trump attacked Europe during today's call. The conversation was heated. Trump shifted responsibility for putting pressure on Putin to Europe. Europeans no longer expect Trump to impose sanctions against Russia.

    Trump accused Europeans of buying Russian oil and financing its war machine. Ursula von der Leyen tried to object, saying that Europe had significantly reduced purchases after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    Trump was reminded that only Hungary and Slovakia directly import Russian oil. Witkoff turned the tables and accused Europe of buying Russian oil from India.

    When the conversation turned to sanctions, Europe attempted to agree on a joint approach with the American president. The Europeans immediately offered to send their representatives to Washington to set up a working group on sanctions within 48 hours. It is not known whether Trump agreed.

    Trump told the Europeans that they should put pressure on China to give up Russian oil. Trump himself did not introduce secondary duties on China for purchasing oil from Russia, he only introduced them on India.

    Trump emphasized that Europe should put more pressure on Russia.

    After the conversation, Europeans no longer expect Trump to impose sanctions against Russia.

    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1963705264936460405
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,812
    Spencer Kuvin, lawyer for Epstein’s victims, says the FBI interviewed 40+ girls, some just 14, and prepared a 54-count indictment. Then came the secret plea deal that let Epstein walk. Those interviews are in the files. Kuvin says Alan Dershowitz scoured the girls’ MySpace pages to smear them as liars
    https://x.com/MeidasTouch/status/1963768163981836450

    The scum who negotiated the plea deal became Trump's Labour Secretary.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,781
    Nigelb said:

    Will our governments finally grasp that Trump (and any likely GOP successor) is no longer an ally in any real sense to Europe ?

    We are still grossly underestimating the implications of that.
    And one possible future PM is an abject toady towards Trump.

    Bild and Axios: Trump attacked Europe during today's call. The conversation was heated. Trump shifted responsibility for putting pressure on Putin to Europe. Europeans no longer expect Trump to impose sanctions against Russia.

    Trump accused Europeans of buying Russian oil and financing its war machine. Ursula von der Leyen tried to object, saying that Europe had significantly reduced purchases after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    Trump was reminded that only Hungary and Slovakia directly import Russian oil. Witkoff turned the tables and accused Europe of buying Russian oil from India.

    When the conversation turned to sanctions, Europe attempted to agree on a joint approach with the American president. The Europeans immediately offered to send their representatives to Washington to set up a working group on sanctions within 48 hours. It is not known whether Trump agreed.

    Trump told the Europeans that they should put pressure on China to give up Russian oil. Trump himself did not introduce secondary duties on China for purchasing oil from Russia, he only introduced them on India.

    Trump emphasized that Europe should put more pressure on Russia.

    After the conversation, Europeans no longer expect Trump to impose sanctions against Russia.

    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1963705264936460405

    How far is that Trump specific, Republican specific or America from now on?
    I guess the hope is that Donald goes, the Democrats win, things go back to normal.
    For myself, I think it's clear that Europe needs to be less reliant on the US.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,879
    Nigelb said:

    Spencer Kuvin, lawyer for Epstein’s victims, says the FBI interviewed 40+ girls, some just 14, and prepared a 54-count indictment. Then came the secret plea deal that let Epstein walk. Those interviews are in the files. Kuvin says Alan Dershowitz scoured the girls’ MySpace pages to smear them as liars
    https://x.com/MeidasTouch/status/1963768163981836450

    The scum who negotiated the plea deal became Trump's Labour Secretary.

    A cabinet of all the talents.

    Farage wants to copy Trump.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,804
    Nigelb said:

    Holy Bat S**t, GAO F-35 report doesn't get any better....core upgrades to enable Block 4 now slated for 2031-33, Engine will have to be re-designed at unknown cost - but highly unlikely that this work will port over to F-35B... UK is facing a future with an orphan aircraft...
    https://x.com/FTusa284/status/1963621841643200982

    As I've stated before; we should have pulled out of the F35 program when the US stopped the alternative Rolls Royce / GE F136 engine. As sole supplier, Pratt and Whitney now have the program, and every country that flies the plane, over a barrel.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,008
    They’re actually getting better, absolutely tone perfect.

    https://x.com/govpressoffice/status/1963693102348354047?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,483
    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Will our governments finally grasp that Trump (and any likely GOP successor) is no longer an ally in any real sense to Europe ?

    We are still grossly underestimating the implications of that.
    And one possible future PM is an abject toady towards Trump.

    Bild and Axios: Trump attacked Europe during today's call. The conversation was heated. Trump shifted responsibility for putting pressure on Putin to Europe. Europeans no longer expect Trump to impose sanctions against Russia.

    Trump accused Europeans of buying Russian oil and financing its war machine. Ursula von der Leyen tried to object, saying that Europe had significantly reduced purchases after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    Trump was reminded that only Hungary and Slovakia directly import Russian oil. Witkoff turned the tables and accused Europe of buying Russian oil from India.

    When the conversation turned to sanctions, Europe attempted to agree on a joint approach with the American president. The Europeans immediately offered to send their representatives to Washington to set up a working group on sanctions within 48 hours. It is not known whether Trump agreed.

    Trump told the Europeans that they should put pressure on China to give up Russian oil. Trump himself did not introduce secondary duties on China for purchasing oil from Russia, he only introduced them on India.

    Trump emphasized that Europe should put more pressure on Russia.

    After the conversation, Europeans no longer expect Trump to impose sanctions against Russia.

    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1963705264936460405

    How far is that Trump specific, Republican specific or America from now on?
    I guess the hope is that Donald goes, the Democrats win, things go back to normal.
    For myself, I think it's clear that Europe needs to be less reliant on the US.
    Normal wasn't good.

    Britain needs to be more independent as a country full stop. That doesn't begin or end with Trump - the point of independence is that it's there when you need it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,008
    HYUFD said:

    vino said:

    DavidL said:

    vino said:

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 31% (+1)
    RFM: 21% (+14)
    LAB: 17% (-18)
    CON: 11% (-2)
    LDM: 11% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    , 21 Aug - 1 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Catastrophic poll for Labour. I mean the SNP have been shocking and they have lost half their vote?
    To keep out the SNP will Labour, Tories and Lib Dems all tactical vote for Reform?
    Or is the SNP the lesser evil?
    Holyrood is PR so no need, on that poll there will be a Unionist majority in the Scottish Parliament next year anyway for the first time since 2011
    Not according to an actual Scotch polling expert, SNP just 2 seats off an outright majority. He does caveat that the LD numbers are very likely an outlier.

    Projecting More in Common ?? Aug/Sep into seats (changes vs 2021 on new boundaries):

    SNP ~ 63 (nc)
    Lab ~ 17 (-4)
    Reform UK ~ 17 (+17)
    Lib Dem ~ 15 (+11)
    Con ~ 11 (-20)
    Green ~ 6 (-4)

    (Projection caveats: https://ballotbox.scot/projections)
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,447
    Good morning from France. This 12% extra GDP they spend shows. Roads being renewed. Plenty of low cost public transport. Investment in education from the numbers of pupils around. No sign of this country being on its knees.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,910
    isam said:

    💸 Angela Rayner’s family home was valued at almost twice the amount of other recently sold properties on her street when she sold a stake to her disabled son’s trust so she could buy a holiday home

    Read more 👇


    https://x.com/telegraph/status/1963642234475065671?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    How quaint that Rayner should have had a ‘house’ on a ‘street’ rather thsn the detached villas, castles and estates that the sort of people you support live in.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,755

    A stunning moon hanging low in a clear sky this evening.

    Sad to know that there is human detritus on the surface.

    You are posting from the Moon?
    I'm often on the moon at this time of year, too. I have a charming place there.
    I hope you’re paying your double council tax?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,782
    Battlebus said:

    Good morning from France. This 12% extra GDP they spend shows. Roads being renewed. Plenty of low cost public transport. Investment in education from the numbers of pupils around. No sign of this country being on its knees.

    Good morning

    Looks can be deceptive

    https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/08/26/france-is-in-big-trouble-again
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,879

    HYUFD said:

    vino said:

    DavidL said:

    vino said:

    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 31% (+1)
    RFM: 21% (+14)
    LAB: 17% (-18)
    CON: 11% (-2)
    LDM: 11% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Via
    @Moreincommon_
    , 21 Aug - 1 Sep.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Catastrophic poll for Labour. I mean the SNP have been shocking and they have lost half their vote?
    To keep out the SNP will Labour, Tories and Lib Dems all tactical vote for Reform?
    Or is the SNP the lesser evil?
    Holyrood is PR so no need, on that poll there will be a Unionist majority in the Scottish Parliament next year anyway for the first time since 2011
    Not according to an actual Scotch polling expert, SNP just 2 seats off an outright majority. He does caveat that the LD numbers are very likely an outlier.

    Projecting More in Common ?? Aug/Sep into seats (changes vs 2021 on new boundaries):

    SNP ~ 63 (nc)
    Lab ~ 17 (-4)
    Reform UK ~ 17 (+17)
    Lib Dem ~ 15 (+11)
    Con ~ 11 (-20)
    Green ~ 6 (-4)

    (Projection caveats: https://ballotbox.scot/projections)
    Next years elections look very grim for the Tories.

    I expect more rats to leave the sinking ship so that they keep their seats. All that is needed is to kiss Farages arse.
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