I'm actually suprised that the forced choice 'Lab or Reform' question is already as close as 43:37. Plenty for Reform to play for and the trajectory is still titing in their favour.
There is the 18% Conservative vote to squeeze further (it saddens me but they are done.) After November's budget and maybe another couple like it, with Labour's manifesto pledges on Taxes in tatters, the 52% who delivered Brexit (allowing for electoral churn ofcourse) will, broadly speaking, deliver for Reform.
If you are still voting Tory now you are likely to always be voting Tory and of course Kemi could pick up or be replaced by a more appealing leader.
In seats Labour won where the Tories were second last year, which is most of them, there is also of course no tactical reason for Tory voters to vote Reform even if LD and Green voters have a logical reason to tactically vote Labour.
At least a quarter to a third of 2024 Tories would also vote LD over Reform
I take my hat off to your for standing by the Conservative Party (genuinely) but I respectfully disagree with your analysis here.
The polls show the Conservatives retaining only around 63% of their 2024 voters, similar figures for Labour to be fair.
The 2024 seats you mention, where Labour came first and the Conservatives second, simply do not look like that today and will look even less like that by the time of the next GE.
I respect the old true blues who will die in the ditch with the old brigade, I just think they are significantly outnumbered by the sort of instinctive Conservatives whose motivation to kick Labiur will prove stronger than habitual or historic attachment to the Conservative Party.
I don't think people will want a Reform government. But will it be possible to block it in a first past the post system where they are the largest party? I'm not sure. The British public is often quite good at gaming the system to get the result it wants. The fundamental problem is that nobody is willing to make the hard choices necessary to fix our problems. Everybody wants someone else to pay the costs involved. The voters are the real villains here.
I think that's unfair on the voters. With a few honourable exceptions the voters aren't economists, they aren't experts on the public finances. They're only believing what they're being told.
If it was the case that one of the parties had told them the truth about the current situation, and the hard choices that would be required, and had rejected that in favour of platitudes from other parties, then it might be fair to blame the voters.
But that hasn't happened. No-one has levelled with the voters.
May's "dementia tax" is an example of what happens when you try to level with voters. Labour's cuts to WFA similarly. Probably neither party did enough to give voters the true picture. But how do you even communicate reality to voters when they're all in their own echo chamber?
There never seems to be any discussion of how we reached a point where Reform are averaging about 30% in the polls.
No discussion about why Reform are popular? I don't know what you mean, I've seen tons (!) of that stuff. Mass immigration, the boats, low growth, the Trump vibeshift, shadowy billionaires, incompetent uniparty government, deindustrialisation, globalisation, multiculturalism, woke overreach, inequality, xenophobia, social media, etc etc, is why it's happening. Basically whatever floats your boat, accords with your mindset and politics, that is what is causing it.
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
The deputy prime minister used a small family conveyancing firm in Kent to handle the purchase of a Hove property at the centre of a tax dispute, the BBC understands. Angela Rayner, who has admitted she underpaid stamp duty on the property but said she received inaccurate legal advice, used the conveyancers Verrico & Associates. The Herne Bay-based high street firm employs six people, including two licensed conveyancers. It doesn't list tax advice among its services, although on LinkedIn the managing director states that "through our connections we can also offer advice on Wills, Probate and Tax planning". Experts have previously said that conveyancers would be unlikely to be able to give specialist tax advice of the kind Rayner required. Allies of Rayner have said she received advice from a conveyancer and from two other trust experts. It remains unclear who the two trust experts were, and whether they have specialised knowledge on stamp duty tax. Someone answering the phone at the conveyancing firm would not give their name but said "we're not talking to journalists". The name of the company, which appears on a Land Registry document, was first reported by The Guardian.
It appears as though this might well be an extra-judicial execution, not within any existing legal authority,
The Pentagon is working—STILL—to make up a legal rationale for slaughtering 11 people, 1,500 miles from America, AFTER THE FACT? WHAT? You can’t do this after they’re dead. That is a crime. That is murder. https://x.com/hissgoescobra/status/1963464928066711700
Whether or not they were bad guys is really not the point at all.
Yeah, all the explanations so far have been a bit Hague. Sorry, I meant vague...
Legal process and evidence do not appear to be high up the administration's list of priorities.
Further evidence that the Trump admin lied repeatedly (to the public and a judge) when it tried to deport 600 children to Guatemala in the dead of night.
I don't think people will want a Reform government. But will it be possible to block it in a first past the post system where they are the largest party? I'm not sure. The British public is often quite good at gaming the system to get the result it wants. The fundamental problem is that nobody is willing to make the hard choices necessary to fix our problems. Everybody wants someone else to pay the costs involved. The voters are the real villains here.
I think that's unfair on the voters. With a few honourable exceptions the voters aren't economists, they aren't experts on the public finances. They're only believing what they're being told.
If it was the case that one of the parties had told them the truth about the current situation, and the hard choices that would be required, and had rejected that in favour of platitudes from other parties, then it might be fair to blame the voters.
But that hasn't happened. No-one has levelled with the voters.
May's "dementia tax" is an example of what happens when you try to level with voters. Labour's cuts to WFA similarly. Probably neither party did enough to give voters the true picture. But how do you even communicate reality to voters when they're all in their own echo chamber?
I don't think people will want a Reform government. But will it be possible to block it in a first past the post system where they are the largest party? I'm not sure. The British public is often quite good at gaming the system to get the result it wants. The fundamental problem is that nobody is willing to make the hard choices necessary to fix our problems. Everybody wants someone else to pay the costs involved. The voters are the real villains here.
I think that's unfair on the voters. With a few honourable exceptions the voters aren't economists, they aren't experts on the public finances. They're only believing what they're being told.
If it was the case that one of the parties had told them the truth about the current situation, and the hard choices that would be required, and had rejected that in favour of platitudes from other parties, then it might be fair to blame the voters.
But that hasn't happened. No-one has levelled with the voters.
I think deep down the voters know.
But still. I like to think they I can count and that I know there's a problem. Who to vote for?
Sometimes I feel thankful that the next election probably won't come until I'm 91 and I'm unlikely to see that. Otherwise I might have to hang on and vote for Priti Patel to stop here losing to Reform!
Trump, while speaking by phone with Zelensky & European leaders this morning, told them that Europe needs to stop buying Russian oil & put economic pressure on China as negotiations on ending the war continue, a White House official tells me
Well he isn’t wrong, European countries have been pouring billions into Putin’s war machine in the past three years.
Just have them tell Trump they’ll take as much American O&G as they can supply to replace the Russian supply, in exchange for the US sending old and obsolete weapons to Ukraine.
It appears as though this might well be an extra-judicial execution, not within any existing legal authority,
The Pentagon is working—STILL—to make up a legal rationale for slaughtering 11 people, 1,500 miles from America, AFTER THE FACT? WHAT? You can’t do this after they’re dead. That is a crime. That is murder. https://x.com/hissgoescobra/status/1963464928066711700
Whether or not they were bad guys is really not the point at all.
Yeah, all the explanations so far have been a bit Hague. Sorry, I meant vague...
Legal process and evidence do not appear to be high up the administration's list of priorities.
Further evidence that the Trump admin lied repeatedly (to the public and a judge) when it tried to deport 600 children to Guatemala in the dead of night.
"In rare interviews with NBC News, a dozen federal judges—appointed by Democratic and Republican presidents, including Trump, and serving around the country — pointed to a pattern they say has recently emerged:
"Lower court judges are handed contentious cases involving the Trump administration. They painstakingly research the law to reach their rulings. When they go against Trump, administration officials and allies criticize the judges in harsh terms. The government appeals to the Supreme Court, with its 6-3 conservative majority.
"And then the Supreme Court, in emergency rulings, swiftly rejects the judges’ decisions with little to no explanation.
There never seems to be any discussion of how we reached a point where Reform are averaging about 30% in the polls.
About 5% of the 30% is from people who didn't vote at all in 2024. They break overwhelmingly for Reform and say they'll vote next time. The question is: will they?
The deputy prime minister used a small family conveyancing firm in Kent to handle the purchase of a Hove property at the centre of a tax dispute, the BBC understands. Angela Rayner, who has admitted she underpaid stamp duty on the property but said she received inaccurate legal advice, used the conveyancers Verrico & Associates. The Herne Bay-based high street firm employs six people, including two licensed conveyancers. It doesn't list tax advice among its services, although on LinkedIn the managing director states that "through our connections we can also offer advice on Wills, Probate and Tax planning". Experts have previously said that conveyancers would be unlikely to be able to give specialist tax advice of the kind Rayner required. Allies of Rayner have said she received advice from a conveyancer and from two other trust experts. It remains unclear who the two trust experts were, and whether they have specialised knowledge on stamp duty tax. Someone answering the phone at the conveyancing firm would not give their name but said "we're not talking to journalists". The name of the company, which appears on a Land Registry document, was first reported by The Guardian.
I know they say all publicity is good publicity, but I think in this case that might not be true for Bodge It of Herne Bay.
Strange question, Big Ange works in London, lives in Manchester, London or Hove depending on who she is talking to. Why is she getting a tiny firm in Kent to do this?
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
I don't think people will want a Reform government. But will it be possible to block it in a first past the post system where they are the largest party? I'm not sure. The British public is often quite good at gaming the system to get the result it wants. The fundamental problem is that nobody is willing to make the hard choices necessary to fix our problems. Everybody wants someone else to pay the costs involved. The voters are the real villains here.
I think that's unfair on the voters. With a few honourable exceptions the voters aren't economists, they aren't experts on the public finances. They're only believing what they're being told.
If it was the case that one of the parties had told them the truth about the current situation, and the hard choices that would be required, and had rejected that in favour of platitudes from other parties, then it might be fair to blame the voters.
But that hasn't happened. No-one has levelled with the voters.
May's "dementia tax" is an example of what happens when you try to level with voters. Labour's cuts to WFA similarly. Probably neither party did enough to give voters the true picture. But how do you even communicate reality to voters when they're all in their own echo chamber?
Okay, those aren't terrible examples of the voters rejecting reality. But I think in neither case did either government prepare the ground and create a convincing narrative in the way that Cameron and Osborne did with austerity and, "we're all in it together."
Now, maybe the coalition austerity was austerity-lite. Some special groups were protected. And the Tories at the 2015GE benefited from cannibalising their coalition partners. But you did have a government that had done some plenty unpopular things for the purpose of balancing books win reelection. The voters were willing to be convinced that it was necessary.
Trump, while speaking by phone with Zelensky & European leaders this morning, told them that Europe needs to stop buying Russian oil & put economic pressure on China as negotiations on ending the war continue, a White House official tells me
It was quite a snub. North Korea's Kim got the nod over diaper Donnie*.
* I don't plan going to the US for a while yet. Mind you, I'm f***** if the free speech USA invades the anti-free speech UK and replaces Starmer with Farage.
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
As I said the other day, he has gone off the deep end with this stuff. I am sure there is a PhD in it for somebody to investigate mildly famous people who go down the rabbit hole of social media and become extremists / can't help themselves with looking for that engagement.
It appears as though this might well be an extra-judicial execution, not within any existing legal authority,
The Pentagon is working—STILL—to make up a legal rationale for slaughtering 11 people, 1,500 miles from America, AFTER THE FACT? WHAT? You can’t do this after they’re dead. That is a crime. That is murder. https://x.com/hissgoescobra/status/1963464928066711700
Whether or not they were bad guys is really not the point at all.
Yeah, all the explanations so far have been a bit Hague. Sorry, I meant vague...
Legal process and evidence do not appear to be high up the administration's list of priorities.
Further evidence that the Trump admin lied repeatedly (to the public and a judge) when it tried to deport 600 children to Guatemala in the dead of night.
"In rare interviews with NBC News, a dozen federal judges—appointed by Democratic and Republican presidents, including Trump, and serving around the country — pointed to a pattern they say has recently emerged:
"Lower court judges are handed contentious cases involving the Trump administration. They painstakingly research the law to reach their rulings. When they go against Trump, administration officials and allies criticize the judges in harsh terms. The government appeals to the Supreme Court, with its 6-3 conservative majority.
"And then the Supreme Court, in emergency rulings, swiftly rejects the judges’ decisions with little to no explanation.
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
As I said the other day, he has gone off the deep end with this stuff. I am sure there is a PhD in it for somebody to investigate mildly famous people who go down the rabbit hole of social media and become extremists / can't help themselves with looking for that engagement.
Speaking of which , Carol Vorderman’s been awfully quiet recently.
It appears as though this might well be an extra-judicial execution, not within any existing legal authority,
The Pentagon is working—STILL—to make up a legal rationale for slaughtering 11 people, 1,500 miles from America, AFTER THE FACT? WHAT? You can’t do this after they’re dead. That is a crime. That is murder. https://x.com/hissgoescobra/status/1963464928066711700
Whether or not they were bad guys is really not the point at all.
Yeah, all the explanations so far have been a bit Hague. Sorry, I meant vague...
Legal process and evidence do not appear to be high up the administration's list of priorities.
Further evidence that the Trump admin lied repeatedly (to the public and a judge) when it tried to deport 600 children to Guatemala in the dead of night.
"In rare interviews with NBC News, a dozen federal judges—appointed by Democratic and Republican presidents, including Trump, and serving around the country — pointed to a pattern they say has recently emerged:
"Lower court judges are handed contentious cases involving the Trump administration. They painstakingly research the law to reach their rulings. When they go against Trump, administration officials and allies criticize the judges in harsh terms. The government appeals to the Supreme Court, with its 6-3 conservative majority.
"And then the Supreme Court, in emergency rulings, swiftly rejects the judges’ decisions with little to no explanation.
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
As I said the other day, he has gone off the deep end with this stuff. I am sure there is a PhD in it for somebody to investigate mildly famous people who go down the rabbit hole of social media and become extremists / can't help themselves with looking for that engagement.
Speaking of which , Carol Vorderman’s been awfully quiet recently.
It appears as though this might well be an extra-judicial execution, not within any existing legal authority,
The Pentagon is working—STILL—to make up a legal rationale for slaughtering 11 people, 1,500 miles from America, AFTER THE FACT? WHAT? You can’t do this after they’re dead. That is a crime. That is murder. https://x.com/hissgoescobra/status/1963464928066711700
Whether or not they were bad guys is really not the point at all.
Yeah, all the explanations so far have been a bit Hague. Sorry, I meant vague...
Legal process and evidence do not appear to be high up the administration's list of priorities.
Further evidence that the Trump admin lied repeatedly (to the public and a judge) when it tried to deport 600 children to Guatemala in the dead of night.
"In rare interviews with NBC News, a dozen federal judges—appointed by Democratic and Republican presidents, including Trump, and serving around the country — pointed to a pattern they say has recently emerged:
"Lower court judges are handed contentious cases involving the Trump administration. They painstakingly research the law to reach their rulings. When they go against Trump, administration officials and allies criticize the judges in harsh terms. The government appeals to the Supreme Court, with its 6-3 conservative majority.
"And then the Supreme Court, in emergency rulings, swiftly rejects the judges’ decisions with little to no explanation.
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
The man who accused him has quite a record of offensive posts, writing in one that he wished acid had been thrown over a woman's face instead of soup. (According to the evidence given in court today.)
There never seems to be any discussion of how we reached a point where Reform are averaging about 30% in the polls.
About 5% of the 30% is from people who didn't vote at all in 2024. They break overwhelmingly for Reform and say they'll vote next time. The question is: will they?
A proportion of the 30% will also be 'the dissatisfied' - the same sort who were putting Labour over 50% then retaining them over 40% Oct 2022-24 despite them being destined to get 34%
Holyrood and Senedd will give some indication of how committed Reform indicators are, and how much of the shame twins base/core can be relied upon come H or double HH
I don't think people will want a Reform government. But will it be possible to block it in a first past the post system where they are the largest party? I'm not sure. The British public is often quite good at gaming the system to get the result it wants. The fundamental problem is that nobody is willing to make the hard choices necessary to fix our problems. Everybody wants someone else to pay the costs involved. The voters are the real villains here.
I think that's unfair on the voters. With a few honourable exceptions the voters aren't economists, they aren't experts on the public finances. They're only believing what they're being told.
If it was the case that one of the parties had told them the truth about the current situation, and the hard choices that would be required, and had rejected that in favour of platitudes from other parties, then it might be fair to blame the voters.
But that hasn't happened. No-one has levelled with the voters.
I think deep down the voters know.
But still. I like to think they I can count and that I know there's a problem. Who to vote for?
Sometimes I feel thankful that the next election probably won't come until I'm 91 and I'm unlikely to see that. Otherwise I might have to hang on and vote for Priti Patel to stop here losing to Reform!
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
As I said the other day, he has gone off the deep end with this stuff. I am sure there is a PhD in it for somebody to investigate mildly famous people who go down the rabbit hole of social media and become extremists / can't help themselves with looking for that engagement.
It doesn't have to be famous people. I fear there are a whole category of people who think the positive reinforcement and relative anonymity they get from spewing on t'Internet means they should do more spewing.
I don't think people will want a Reform government. But will it be possible to block it in a first past the post system where they are the largest party? I'm not sure. The British public is often quite good at gaming the system to get the result it wants. The fundamental problem is that nobody is willing to make the hard choices necessary to fix our problems. Everybody wants someone else to pay the costs involved. The voters are the real villains here.
I think that's unfair on the voters. With a few honourable exceptions the voters aren't economists, they aren't experts on the public finances. They're only believing what they're being told.
If it was the case that one of the parties had told them the truth about the current situation, and the hard choices that would be required, and had rejected that in favour of platitudes from other parties, then it might be fair to blame the voters.
But that hasn't happened. No-one has levelled with the voters.
I think deep down the voters know.
But still. I like to think they I can count and that I know there's a problem. Who to vote for?
Sometimes I feel thankful that the next election probably won't come until I'm 91 and I'm unlikely to see that. Otherwise I might have to hang on and vote for Priti Patel to stop here losing to Reform!
With my recent health issues and I will be 85 and my wife 90 we both share your view about the next GE
The audio of Linehan being arrested, they don't call them the plod for no reason...
"You published a post on X that was deemed to be intended to instil hatred and incite violence"
"What post?"
"I can't tell you that"
AIUI that makes sense. If they get it wrong then any error may be useful to his defence. The post will be explained later. All the police are there to do is to make an arrest, not lay out the evidence against him.
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
The man who accused him has quite a record of offensive posts, writing in one that he wished acid had been thrown over a woman's face instead of soup. (According to the evidence given in court today.)
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
As I said the other day, he has gone off the deep end with this stuff. I am sure there is a PhD in it for somebody to investigate mildly famous people who go down the rabbit hole of social media and become extremists / can't help themselves with looking for that engagement.
Speaking of which , Carol Vorderman’s been awfully quiet recently.
I’m looking forward to the Led By Donkeys poster featuring Angela Rayner and her tax problems.
The audio of Linehan being arrested, they don't call them the plod for no reason...
"You published a post on X that was deemed to be intended to instil hatred and incite violence"
"What post?"
"I can't tell you that"
AIUI that makes sense. If they get it wrong then any error may be useful to his defence. The post will be explained later. All the police are there to do is to make an arrest, not lay out the evidence against him.
If a copper nicks some on the street for something, then they can say what it's about (or, it might be obvious). I think the police should arrive with the details (at least time and date etc.) otherwise they look ridiculous.
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
As I said the other day, he has gone off the deep end with this stuff. I am sure there is a PhD in it for somebody to investigate mildly famous people who go down the rabbit hole of social media and become extremists / can't help themselves with looking for that engagement.
Speaking of which , Carol Vorderman’s been awfully quiet recently.
I’m looking forward to the Led By Donkeys poster featuring Angela Rayner and her tax problems.
Always worth remembering that the next election is nearly 4 years away (given Labour is unlikely to go early), and almost inevitably some major world-shaking event that few expect will have changed the political dynamic one way or other by then.
It could be a massive new migrant crisis thanks to natural disaster or another Syria, in which case Farage could be measuring the curtains for No 10.
It could well be a Trump coup in 2028 (with the first round being next year) in which case Farage’s bolt might be shot
Or a financial and fiscal crisis that might just summon back the ghost of the Tories.
OK, what are the known unknowns?
1. Ukraine - there could be a vaguely just peace, Ukrainian refugees return home (good for immigration figures), opportunities for British firms to be involved in reconstruction, general positive feelings; or things get worse, major Russian advances, more refugees. Worst case is World War III!
2. Trump - maybe Trump/Vance are voted out of office, there's a peaceful transition to a Democratic President; maybe there's a full-on Republican coup. Bad Trump stuff hurts Reform UK. Bad Trump stuff might also hurt the economy, hurting the incumbent government. We've seen Trump hurt the right in Canadian and Australian elections, but maybe a Trump who leaves peacefully in 2028 neuters the issue. But a Trump who goes further in destroying democratic norms would be Kryptonite for Farage.
3. Palestine/Israel - things could settle down to the status quo ante. That'd take the heat out of the issue, which could benefit Labour against more radical positions (Greens, Your Party). Things could get worse: Israel go for full-on ethnic cleansing. The UK/EU might have to take a stronger position, like Russian-style sanctions. Maybe if the situation is clearer (we all agree it's genocide), then the government acts and that also takes the heat out of the issue. Syria or Lebanon could blow up again. Major refugee crisis.
4. Iran vs Israel or Saudia Arabia or ?? - could there be renewed conflict between Iran and Israel/US? Iran confirming a nuclear bomb is, I think, unlikely, but might be game-changing. Yemen is already a mess. If conflict spread, could be another major refugee crisis, but the more likely effect is on oil prices. Or will we have decarbonised enough that that matters less?
5. Former Yugoslavia - the former Yugoslavia could yet again collapse into major conflict. Russia could foment conflict, it wouldn't take much. Would Europe/NATO get involved again? Reform UK would presumably oppose any UK involvement: is that popular or is there a rally round the flag effect? A major refugee crisis and one closer to us than Ukraine/Middle East.
6. War between Pakistan and India - this regularly threatens to blow up. What if full scale war breaks out, even a nuclear conflict? Major refugee crisis. Community tensions in the UK.
7. Climate change emergency - we're getting used to hotter summers and more extreme weather. Could there be a more dramatic shift in weather? A hot summer might kill 1000 people in the UK, but those deaths aren't particularly visible. What if we get something a lot worse? That would harm parties opposed to Net Zero (Reform and increasingly the Tories), one would think.
8. Another pandemic - historically, we've had maybe 4-5 pandemics per century, but they don't have to be spread out evenly. Avian flu has been threatening for years, but some other flu pandemic could also happen, as could some new coronavirus pandemic, or something else. RFK Jr's nonsense policies have made an avian flu pandemic more likely!
I don't think people will want a Reform government. But will it be possible to block it in a first past the post system where they are the largest party? I'm not sure. The British public is often quite good at gaming the system to get the result it wants. The fundamental problem is that nobody is willing to make the hard choices necessary to fix our problems. Everybody wants someone else to pay the costs involved. The voters are the real villains here.
I think that's unfair on the voters. With a few honourable exceptions the voters aren't economists, they aren't experts on the public finances. They're only believing what they're being told.
If it was the case that one of the parties had told them the truth about the current situation, and the hard choices that would be required, and had rejected that in favour of platitudes from other parties, then it might be fair to blame the voters.
But that hasn't happened. No-one has levelled with the voters.
May's "dementia tax" is an example of what happens when you try to level with voters. Labour's cuts to WFA similarly. Probably neither party did enough to give voters the true picture. But how do you even communicate reality to voters when they're all in their own echo chamber?
Okay, those aren't terrible examples of the voters rejecting reality. But I think in neither case did either government prepare the ground and create a convincing narrative in the way that Cameron and Osborne did with austerity and, "we're all in it together."
Now, maybe the coalition austerity was austerity-lite. Some special groups were protected. And the Tories at the 2015GE benefited from cannibalising their coalition partners. But you did have a government that had done some plenty unpopular things for the purpose of balancing books win reelection. The voters were willing to be convinced that it was necessary.
To my mind coalition austerity had a lot of unfortunate features. For instance, it targeted cuts at local governments in poorer areas of the country. So much for all in it together or making tough choices. Also, far from dealing with the underlying ageing related drivers of our fiscal problems they introduced the triple lock which makes the problem even worse! The real problem is that rather than addressing ageing related costs directly we have seen Tory governments slashing spending on everything else instead, and Labour governments looking for ever more distortionary sources of taxation to plug the gap. As a result, people are left asking why are we getting less and paying more for it? While the underlying problem is left unaddressed and continues to drive a year by year worsening in our fiscal picture. Meanwhile politics gets lost in a series of essentially pointless debates on Brexit and small boats. It's enough to drive even a natural optimist like me to despair.
It appears as though this might well be an extra-judicial execution, not within any existing legal authority,
The Pentagon is working—STILL—to make up a legal rationale for slaughtering 11 people, 1,500 miles from America, AFTER THE FACT? WHAT? You can’t do this after they’re dead. That is a crime. That is murder. https://x.com/hissgoescobra/status/1963464928066711700
Whether or not they were bad guys is really not the point at all.
Yeah, all the explanations so far have been a bit Hague. Sorry, I meant vague...
Legal process and evidence do not appear to be high up the administration's list of priorities.
Further evidence that the Trump admin lied repeatedly (to the public and a judge) when it tried to deport 600 children to Guatemala in the dead of night.
"In rare interviews with NBC News, a dozen federal judges—appointed by Democratic and Republican presidents, including Trump, and serving around the country — pointed to a pattern they say has recently emerged:
"Lower court judges are handed contentious cases involving the Trump administration. They painstakingly research the law to reach their rulings. When they go against Trump, administration officials and allies criticize the judges in harsh terms. The government appeals to the Supreme Court, with its 6-3 conservative majority.
"And then the Supreme Court, in emergency rulings, swiftly rejects the judges’ decisions with little to no explanation.
Do we really want to import all this into the UK via Farage and his crew ?
Farage is a traitor.
So is Trump, and it didn't stop him from winning election.
Indeed. But we need to make it clear who people are voting for when the vote for the Farage Party.
There is much evidence, but Farage's recent time in Washington is one piece.
But that isn't happening.
We have researched Farage's fiasco in Congress. The mainstream media and Farage fans won't be reporting that Farage was f*****' beasted and owned by Jamie Raskin. He was humiliated. But you won't see that on a TV screen near you.
Angela Rayner having her pants pulled down is far more newsworthy than Farage's modesty being exposed.
There never seems to be any discussion of how we reached a point where Reform are averaging about 30% in the polls.
About 5% of the 30% is from people who didn't vote at all in 2024. They break overwhelmingly for Reform and say they'll vote next time. The question is: will they?
In May, Reform's vote share was 31%, and that seems consistent with their performance in local by-elections, so the answer is likely yes.
The audio of Linehan being arrested, they don't call them the plod for no reason...
"You published a post on X that was deemed to be intended to instil hatred and incite violence"
"What post?"
"I can't tell you that"
AIUI that makes sense. If they get it wrong then any error may be useful to his defence. The post will be explained later. All the police are there to do is to make an arrest, not lay out the evidence against him.
If a copper nicks some on the street for something, then they can say what it's about (or, it might be obvious). I think the police should arrive with the details (at least time and date etc.) otherwise they look ridiculous.
Say he was being arrested about 100 tweets. Do you expect them to stand around reading out every single tweet to him before he is carted away?
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
The man who accused him has quite a record of offensive posts, writing in one that he wished acid had been thrown over a woman's face instead of soup. (According to the evidence given in court today.)
So you think Linehan is in the right?
Rowling does, so I await the answer to your question...
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
The man who accused him has quite a record of offensive posts, writing in one that he wished acid had been thrown over a woman's face instead of soup. (According to the evidence given in court today.)
Lots on this Tarquin chap on social media. If he turned up and filmed to provoke a response, as Linehan alleges, then more fool Linehan.
Trump, while speaking by phone with Zelensky & European leaders this morning, told them that Europe needs to stop buying Russian oil & put economic pressure on China as negotiations on ending the war continue, a White House official tells me
Well he isn’t wrong, European countries have been pouring billions into Putin’s war machine in the past three years.
Just have them tell Trump they’ll take as much American O&G as they can supply to replace the Russian supply, in exchange for the US sending old and obsolete weapons to Ukraine.
Apparently Trump criticized Hungary and Slovakia by name, after they'd complained to Trump about Ukraine hitting the Russian pipeline that supplies them with Russian oil.
The Trump/Putin suck-ups always make the mistake of thinking that they can call in favours from the big guy, but the big guy frequently has other ideas that don't align with theirs.
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
The man who accused him has quite a record of offensive posts, writing in one that he wished acid had been thrown over a woman's face instead of soup. (According to the evidence given in court today.)
So you think Linehan is in the right?
Rowling does, so I await the answer to your question...
Yet Linehan has complained about the lack of support from her.
The audio of Linehan being arrested, they don't call them the plod for no reason...
"You published a post on X that was deemed to be intended to instil hatred and incite violence"
"What post?"
"I can't tell you that"
AIUI that makes sense. If they get it wrong then any error may be useful to his defence. The post will be explained later. All the police are there to do is to make an arrest, not lay out the evidence against him.
If a copper nicks some on the street for something, then they can say what it's about (or, it might be obvious). I think the police should arrive with the details (at least time and date etc.) otherwise they look ridiculous.
Say he was being arrested about 100 tweets. Do you expect them to stand around reading out every single tweet to him before he is carted away?
The time to do that is at the station.
Except in this case that isn't what happened. The exact quote is
"It is alleged that on the 19th April 2025, you published a post on X, that was deemed to be intended to instil hatred and incite violence on the grounds of sexual orientation "...
"What was the post"
"I can't tell you at the moment"
So they had remembered the exact date, but either forgot or forgot to ask what the tweet was.
What Starmer knew and when he knew it starting to worm its way into the story
Kevin Hollinrake was hinting that Starmer is equally guilty of the cover up. Thank goodness we are not allowed any Tory era whataboutery under your terms.
The audio of Linehan being arrested, they don't call them the plod for no reason...
"You published a post on X that was deemed to be intended to instil hatred and incite violence"
"What post?"
"I can't tell you that"
AIUI that makes sense. If they get it wrong then any error may be useful to his defence. The post will be explained later. All the police are there to do is to make an arrest, not lay out the evidence against him.
If a copper nicks some on the street for something, then they can say what it's about (or, it might be obvious). I think the police should arrive with the details (at least time and date etc.) otherwise they look ridiculous.
Say he was being arrested about 100 tweets.
He wasn’t being arrested for that.
It’s a fair question to ask, more pertinent if they ask you for a voluntary interview I’d say.
I don't think people will want a Reform government. But will it be possible to block it in a first past the post system where they are the largest party? I'm not sure. The British public is often quite good at gaming the system to get the result it wants. The fundamental problem is that nobody is willing to make the hard choices necessary to fix our problems. Everybody wants someone else to pay the costs involved. The voters are the real villains here.
I think that's unfair on the voters. With a few honourable exceptions the voters aren't economists, they aren't experts on the public finances. They're only believing what they're being told.
If it was the case that one of the parties had told them the truth about the current situation, and the hard choices that would be required, and had rejected that in favour of platitudes from other parties, then it might be fair to blame the voters.
But that hasn't happened. No-one has levelled with the voters.
May's "dementia tax" is an example of what happens when you try to level with voters. Labour's cuts to WFA similarly. Probably neither party did enough to give voters the true picture. But how do you even communicate reality to voters when they're all in their own echo chamber?
Okay, those aren't terrible examples of the voters rejecting reality. But I think in neither case did either government prepare the ground and create a convincing narrative in the way that Cameron and Osborne did with austerity and, "we're all in it together."
Now, maybe the coalition austerity was austerity-lite. Some special groups were protected. And the Tories at the 2015GE benefited from cannibalising their coalition partners. But you did have a government that had done some plenty unpopular things for the purpose of balancing books win reelection. The voters were willing to be convinced that it was necessary.
To my mind coalition austerity had a lot of unfortunate features. For instance, it targeted cuts at local governments in poorer areas of the country. So much for all in it together or making tough choices. Also, far from dealing with the underlying ageing related drivers of our fiscal problems they introduced the triple lock which makes the problem even worse! The real problem is that rather than addressing ageing related costs directly we have seen Tory governments slashing spending on everything else instead, and Labour governments looking for ever more distortionary sources of taxation to plug the gap. As a result, people are left asking why are we getting less and paying more for it? While the underlying problem is left unaddressed and continues to drive a year by year worsening in our fiscal picture. Meanwhile politics gets lost in a series of essentially pointless debates on Brexit and small boats. It's enough to drive even a natural optimist like me to despair.
Yes. I'm not a fan of how the coalition implemented austerity, but I think they did pretty well with the politics of it.
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
The man who accused him has quite a record of offensive posts, writing in one that he wished acid had been thrown over a woman's face instead of soup. (According to the evidence given in court today.)
So you think Linehan is in the right?
Rowling does, so I await the answer to your question...
Yet Linehan has complained about the lack of support from her.
I thought it was reported on here that she had tweeted at least moderate support after his arrest.
The audio of Linehan being arrested, they don't call them the plod for no reason...
"You published a post on X that was deemed to be intended to instil hatred and incite violence"
"What post?"
"I can't tell you that"
AIUI that makes sense. If they get it wrong then any error may be useful to his defence. The post will be explained later. All the police are there to do is to make an arrest, not lay out the evidence against him.
If a copper nicks some on the street for something, then they can say what it's about (or, it might be obvious). I think the police should arrive with the details (at least time and date etc.) otherwise they look ridiculous.
Say he was being arrested about 100 tweets.
He wasn’t being arrested for that.
It’s a fair question to ask, more pertinent if they ask you for a voluntary interview I’d say.
Indeed; and it's fair for them to not decide to answer.
What Starmer knew and when he knew it starting to worm its way into the story
Kevin Hollinrake was hinting that Starmer is equally guilty of the cover up. Thank goodness we are not allowed any Tory era whataboutery under your terms.
Whataboutery seems to be your main theme these days
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
The man who accused him has quite a record of offensive posts, writing in one that he wished acid had been thrown over a woman's face instead of soup. (According to the evidence given in court today.)
So you think Linehan is in the right?
Rowling does, so I await the answer to your question...
Yet Linehan has complained about the lack of support from her.
I thought it was reported on here that she had tweeted at least moderate support after his arrest.
She has opposed the arrest.
As for Linehan, three weeks ago he was complaining.
The audio of Linehan being arrested, they don't call them the plod for no reason...
"You published a post on X that was deemed to be intended to instil hatred and incite violence"
"What post?"
"I can't tell you that"
AIUI that makes sense. If they get it wrong then any error may be useful to his defence. The post will be explained later. All the police are there to do is to make an arrest, not lay out the evidence against him.
If a copper nicks some on the street for something, then they can say what it's about (or, it might be obvious). I think the police should arrive with the details (at least time and date etc.) otherwise they look ridiculous.
Say he was being arrested about 100 tweets. Do you expect them to stand around reading out every single tweet to him before he is carted away?
The time to do that is at the station.
Except in this case that isn't what happened. The exact quote is
"It is alleged that on the 19th April 2025, you published a post on X, that was deemed to be intended to instil hatred and incite violence on the grounds of sexual orientation "...
"What was the post"
"I can't tell you at the moment"
So they had remembered the exact date, but either forgot or forgot to ask what the tweet was.
AIUI if they get even a word wrong, then the defence could have a field day in court.
Imagine this was a rape. You might expect them to say the time and rough location of the crime, but you would not expect them to state the victim's name, especially in public.
What Starmer knew and when he knew it starting to worm its way into the story
Kevin Hollinrake was hinting that Starmer is equally guilty of the cover up. Thank goodness we are not allowed any Tory era whataboutery under your terms.
I think you'll find I said whataboutery was not acceptable for the parties. We can do whatever we like as we are free citizens of PB
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
The man who accused him has quite a record of offensive posts, writing in one that he wished acid had been thrown over a woman's face instead of soup. (According to the evidence given in court today.)
So you think Linehan is in the right?
Rowling does, so I await the answer to your question...
Yet Linehan has complained about the lack of support from her.
I thought it was reported on here that she had tweeted at least moderate support after his arrest.
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
The man who accused him has quite a record of offensive posts, writing in one that he wished acid had been thrown over a woman's face instead of soup. (According to the evidence given in court today.)
So you think Linehan is in the right?
Rowling does, so I await the answer to your question...
Yet Linehan has complained about the lack of support from her.
I thought it was reported on here that she had tweeted at least moderate support after his arrest.
But that's about the recent arrest, not this trial. She doesn't normally allow his name to pass her lips. Sensibly, I might add.
Always worth remembering that the next election is nearly 4 years away (given Labour is unlikely to go early), and almost inevitably some major world-shaking event that few expect will have changed the political dynamic one way or other by then.
It could be a massive new migrant crisis thanks to natural disaster or another Syria, in which case Farage could be measuring the curtains for No 10.
It could well be a Trump coup in 2028 (with the first round being next year) in which case Farage’s bolt might be shot
Or a financial and fiscal crisis that might just summon back the ghost of the Tories.
OK, what are the known unknowns?
1. Ukraine - there could be a vaguely just peace, Ukrainian refugees return home (good for immigration figures), opportunities for British firms to be involved in reconstruction, general positive feelings; or things get worse, major Russian advances, more refugees. Worst case is World War III!
2. Trump - maybe Trump/Vance are voted out of office, there's a peaceful transition to a Democratic President; maybe there's a full-on Republican coup. Bad Trump stuff hurts Reform UK. Bad Trump stuff might also hurt the economy, hurting the incumbent government. We've seen Trump hurt the right in Canadian and Australian elections, but maybe a Trump who leaves peacefully in 2028 neuters the issue. But a Trump who goes further in destroying democratic norms would be Kryptonite for Farage.
3. Palestine/Israel - things could settle down to the status quo ante. That'd take the heat out of the issue, which could benefit Labour against more radical positions (Greens, Your Party). Things could get worse: Israel go for full-on ethnic cleansing. The UK/EU might have to take a stronger position, like Russian-style sanctions. Maybe if the situation is clearer (we all agree it's genocide), then the government acts and that also takes the heat out of the issue. Syria or Lebanon could blow up again. Major refugee crisis.
4. Iran vs Israel or Saudia Arabia or ?? - could there be renewed conflict between Iran and Israel/US? Iran confirming a nuclear bomb is, I think, unlikely, but might be game-changing. Yemen is already a mess. If conflict spread, could be another major refugee crisis, but the more likely effect is on oil prices. Or will we have decarbonised enough that that matters less?
5. Former Yugoslavia - the former Yugoslavia could yet again collapse into major conflict. Russia could foment conflict, it wouldn't take much. Would Europe/NATO get involved again? Reform UK would presumably oppose any UK involvement: is that popular or is there a rally round the flag effect? A major refugee crisis and one closer to us than Ukraine/Middle East.
6. War between Pakistan and India - this regularly threatens to blow up. What if full scale war breaks out, even a nuclear conflict? Major refugee crisis. Community tensions in the UK.
7. Climate change emergency - we're getting used to hotter summers and more extreme weather. Could there be a more dramatic shift in weather? A hot summer might kill 1000 people in the UK, but those deaths aren't particularly visible. What if we get something a lot worse? That would harm parties opposed to Net Zero (Reform and increasingly the Tories), one would think.
8. Another pandemic - historically, we've had maybe 4-5 pandemics per century, but they don't have to be spread out evenly. Avian flu has been threatening for years, but some other flu pandemic could also happen, as could some new coronavirus pandemic, or something else. RFK Jr's nonsense policies have made an avian flu pandemic more likely!
Volcanic winter, major agricultural pestilence, 9/11 redux, internal Chinese strife, AGI, a good Resident Evil film?
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
The man who accused him has quite a record of offensive posts, writing in one that he wished acid had been thrown over a woman's face instead of soup. (According to the evidence given in court today.)
So you think Linehan is in the right?
Rowling does, so I await the answer to your question...
Yet Linehan has complained about the lack of support from her.
I thought it was reported on here that she had tweeted at least moderate support after his arrest.
But that's about the recent arrest, not this trial. She doesn't normally allow his name to pass her lips. Sensibly, I might add.
Why sensibly? Has Linehan crossed some sort of line?
It appears as though this might well be an extra-judicial execution, not within any existing legal authority,
The Pentagon is working—STILL—to make up a legal rationale for slaughtering 11 people, 1,500 miles from America, AFTER THE FACT? WHAT? You can’t do this after they’re dead. That is a crime. That is murder. https://x.com/hissgoescobra/status/1963464928066711700
Whether or not they were bad guys is really not the point at all.
Yeah, all the explanations so far have been a bit Hague. Sorry, I meant vague...
Legal process and evidence do not appear to be high up the administration's list of priorities.
Further evidence that the Trump admin lied repeatedly (to the public and a judge) when it tried to deport 600 children to Guatemala in the dead of night.
"In rare interviews with NBC News, a dozen federal judges—appointed by Democratic and Republican presidents, including Trump, and serving around the country — pointed to a pattern they say has recently emerged:
"Lower court judges are handed contentious cases involving the Trump administration. They painstakingly research the law to reach their rulings. When they go against Trump, administration officials and allies criticize the judges in harsh terms. The government appeals to the Supreme Court, with its 6-3 conservative majority.
"And then the Supreme Court, in emergency rulings, swiftly rejects the judges’ decisions with little to no explanation.
Do we really want to import all this into the UK via Farage and his crew ?
Farage is a traitor.
So is Trump, and it didn't stop him from winning election.
Indeed. But we need to make it clear who people are voting for when the vote for the Farage Party.
There is much evidence, but Farage's recent time in Washington is one piece.
But that isn't happening.
We have researched Farage's fiasco in Congress. The mainstream media and Farage fans won't be reporting that Farage was f*****' beasted and owned by Jamie Raskin. He was humiliated. But you won't see that on a TV screen near you.
Angela Rayner having her pants pulled down is far more newsworthy than Farage's modesty being exposed.
We’re going to get set 350 and barely get half way there. Again.
Rashid has gone for 3.3/over, Jacks and Bethell both over 10. A better bowler than the pair and SA would be 50 less. They need to contribute with the bat, otherwise the selectors should be dropped.
What Starmer knew and when he knew it starting to worm its way into the story
Kevin Hollinrake was hinting that Starmer is equally guilty of the cover up. Thank goodness we are not allowed any Tory era whataboutery under your terms.
Whataboutery seems to be your main theme these days
Maybe it is all you are left with
We’ve not got much on the Left now. A paucity of ideas, online happy clappy fanboys on social media (twitter not here) gaslighting us to how good things are, an economy that’s doing badly and just no clue how to deliver improvements
Look at the Rayner detbate. It’s all yeah but Tories.
We need some ideas people to emerge and some competence.
I do think as PB lefties we realise there are issues that need addressing.
What Starmer knew and when he knew it starting to worm its way into the story
Kevin Hollinrake was hinting that Starmer is equally guilty of the cover up. Thank goodness we are not allowed any Tory era whataboutery under your terms.
Are we seeing a Watergate developing over Angela's stamp duty?
There's no Woodward or Bernstein but we do have Dan Hodges and Alison Pearson.
It appears as though this might well be an extra-judicial execution, not within any existing legal authority,
The Pentagon is working—STILL—to make up a legal rationale for slaughtering 11 people, 1,500 miles from America, AFTER THE FACT? WHAT? You can’t do this after they’re dead. That is a crime. That is murder. https://x.com/hissgoescobra/status/1963464928066711700
Whether or not they were bad guys is really not the point at all.
Yeah, all the explanations so far have been a bit Hague. Sorry, I meant vague...
Legal process and evidence do not appear to be high up the administration's list of priorities.
Further evidence that the Trump admin lied repeatedly (to the public and a judge) when it tried to deport 600 children to Guatemala in the dead of night.
"In rare interviews with NBC News, a dozen federal judges—appointed by Democratic and Republican presidents, including Trump, and serving around the country — pointed to a pattern they say has recently emerged:
"Lower court judges are handed contentious cases involving the Trump administration. They painstakingly research the law to reach their rulings. When they go against Trump, administration officials and allies criticize the judges in harsh terms. The government appeals to the Supreme Court, with its 6-3 conservative majority.
"And then the Supreme Court, in emergency rulings, swiftly rejects the judges’ decisions with little to no explanation.
Do we really want to import all this into the UK via Farage and his crew ?
Farage is a traitor.
So is Trump, and it didn't stop him from winning election.
Indeed. But we need to make it clear who people are voting for when the vote for the Farage Party.
There is much evidence, but Farage's recent time in Washington is one piece.
But that isn't happening.
We have researched Farage's fiasco in Congress. The mainstream media and Farage fans won't be reporting that Farage was f*****' beasted and owned by Jamie Raskin. He was humiliated. But you won't see that on a TV screen near you.
Angela Rayner having her pants pulled down is far more newsworthy than Farage's modesty being exposed.
I don't think people will want a Reform government. But will it be possible to block it in a first past the post system where they are the largest party? I'm not sure. The British public is often quite good at gaming the system to get the result it wants. The fundamental problem is that nobody is willing to make the hard choices necessary to fix our problems. Everybody wants someone else to pay the costs involved. The voters are the real villains here.
I think that's unfair on the voters. With a few honourable exceptions the voters aren't economists, they aren't experts on the public finances. They're only believing what they're being told.
If it was the case that one of the parties had told them the truth about the current situation, and the hard choices that would be required, and had rejected that in favour of platitudes from other parties, then it might be fair to blame the voters.
But that hasn't happened. No-one has levelled with the voters.
May's "dementia tax" is an example of what happens when you try to level with voters. Labour's cuts to WFA similarly. Probably neither party did enough to give voters the true picture. But how do you even communicate reality to voters when they're all in their own echo chamber?
Okay, those aren't terrible examples of the voters rejecting reality. But I think in neither case did either government prepare the ground and create a convincing narrative in the way that Cameron and Osborne did with austerity and, "we're all in it together."
Now, maybe the coalition austerity was austerity-lite. Some special groups were protected. And the Tories at the 2015GE benefited from cannibalising their coalition partners. But you did have a government that had done some plenty unpopular things for the purpose of balancing books win reelection. The voters were willing to be convinced that it was necessary.
To my mind coalition austerity had a lot of unfortunate features. For instance, it targeted cuts at local governments in poorer areas of the country. So much for all in it together or making tough choices. Also, far from dealing with the underlying ageing related drivers of our fiscal problems they introduced the triple lock which makes the problem even worse! The real problem is that rather than addressing ageing related costs directly we have seen Tory governments slashing spending on everything else instead, and Labour governments looking for ever more distortionary sources of taxation to plug the gap. As a result, people are left asking why are we getting less and paying more for it? While the underlying problem is left unaddressed and continues to drive a year by year worsening in our fiscal picture. Meanwhile politics gets lost in a series of essentially pointless debates on Brexit and small boats. It's enough to drive even a natural optimist like me to despair.
Yes. I'm not a fan of how the coalition implemented austerity, but I think they did pretty well with the politics of it.
Cameron and Osborne sold austerity brilliantly. The notion of the maxed out credit card was very clever too, although was a wholly inappropriate analogy.
Then Johnson came along and spent like a drunken sailor.
Always worth remembering that the next election is nearly 4 years away (given Labour is unlikely to go early), and almost inevitably some major world-shaking event that few expect will have changed the political dynamic one way or other by then.
It could be a massive new migrant crisis thanks to natural disaster or another Syria, in which case Farage could be measuring the curtains for No 10.
It could well be a Trump coup in 2028 (with the first round being next year) in which case Farage’s bolt might be shot
Or a financial and fiscal crisis that might just summon back the ghost of the Tories.
OK, what are the known unknowns?
1. Ukraine - there could be a vaguely just peace, Ukrainian refugees return home (good for immigration figures), opportunities for British firms to be involved in reconstruction, general positive feelings; or things get worse, major Russian advances, more refugees. Worst case is World War III!
2. Trump - maybe Trump/Vance are voted out of office, there's a peaceful transition to a Democratic President; maybe there's a full-on Republican coup. Bad Trump stuff hurts Reform UK. Bad Trump stuff might also hurt the economy, hurting the incumbent government. We've seen Trump hurt the right in Canadian and Australian elections, but maybe a Trump who leaves peacefully in 2028 neuters the issue. But a Trump who goes further in destroying democratic norms would be Kryptonite for Farage.
3. Palestine/Israel - things could settle down to the status quo ante. That'd take the heat out of the issue, which could benefit Labour against more radical positions (Greens, Your Party). Things could get worse: Israel go for full-on ethnic cleansing. The UK/EU might have to take a stronger position, like Russian-style sanctions. Maybe if the situation is clearer (we all agree it's genocide), then the government acts and that also takes the heat out of the issue. Syria or Lebanon could blow up again. Major refugee crisis.
4. Iran vs Israel or Saudia Arabia or ?? - could there be renewed conflict between Iran and Israel/US? Iran confirming a nuclear bomb is, I think, unlikely, but might be game-changing. Yemen is already a mess. If conflict spread, could be another major refugee crisis, but the more likely effect is on oil prices. Or will we have decarbonised enough that that matters less?
5. Former Yugoslavia - the former Yugoslavia could yet again collapse into major conflict. Russia could foment conflict, it wouldn't take much. Would Europe/NATO get involved again? Reform UK would presumably oppose any UK involvement: is that popular or is there a rally round the flag effect? A major refugee crisis and one closer to us than Ukraine/Middle East.
6. War between Pakistan and India - this regularly threatens to blow up. What if full scale war breaks out, even a nuclear conflict? Major refugee crisis. Community tensions in the UK.
7. Climate change emergency - we're getting used to hotter summers and more extreme weather. Could there be a more dramatic shift in weather? A hot summer might kill 1000 people in the UK, but those deaths aren't particularly visible. What if we get something a lot worse? That would harm parties opposed to Net Zero (Reform and increasingly the Tories), one would think.
8. Another pandemic - historically, we've had maybe 4-5 pandemics per century, but they don't have to be spread out evenly. Avian flu has been threatening for years, but some other flu pandemic could also happen, as could some new coronavirus pandemic, or something else. RFK Jr's nonsense policies have made an avian flu pandemic more likely!
Volcanic winter, major agricultural pestilence, 9/11 redux, internal Chinese strife, AGI, a good Resident Evil film?
One of those isn't going to happen. (The penultimate one. We've had a good Resident Evil film!)
The audio of Linehan being arrested, they don't call them the plod for no reason...
"You published a post on X that was deemed to be intended to instil hatred and incite violence"
"What post?"
"I can't tell you that"
AIUI that makes sense. If they get it wrong then any error may be useful to his defence. The post will be explained later. All the police are there to do is to make an arrest, not lay out the evidence against him.
If a copper nicks some on the street for something, then they can say what it's about (or, it might be obvious). I think the police should arrive with the details (at least time and date etc.) otherwise they look ridiculous.
Say he was being arrested about 100 tweets. Do you expect them to stand around reading out every single tweet to him before he is carted away?
The time to do that is at the station.
Except in this case that isn't what happened. The exact quote is
"It is alleged that on the 19th April 2025, you published a post on X, that was deemed to be intended to instil hatred and incite violence on the grounds of sexual orientation "...
"What was the post"
"I can't tell you at the moment"
So they had remembered the exact date, but either forgot or forgot to ask what the tweet was.
AIUI if they get even a word wrong, then the defence could have a field day in court.
Imagine this was a rape. You might expect them to say the time and rough location of the crime, but you would not expect them to state the victim's name, especially in public.
Not only that, they are looking for you to incriminate yourself too. They will give the bare minimum when interviewing him.
I don't think people will want a Reform government. But will it be possible to block it in a first past the post system where they are the largest party? I'm not sure. The British public is often quite good at gaming the system to get the result it wants. The fundamental problem is that nobody is willing to make the hard choices necessary to fix our problems. Everybody wants someone else to pay the costs involved. The voters are the real villains here.
I think that's unfair on the voters. With a few honourable exceptions the voters aren't economists, they aren't experts on the public finances. They're only believing what they're being told.
If it was the case that one of the parties had told them the truth about the current situation, and the hard choices that would be required, and had rejected that in favour of platitudes from other parties, then it might be fair to blame the voters.
But that hasn't happened. No-one has levelled with the voters.
May's "dementia tax" is an example of what happens when you try to level with voters. Labour's cuts to WFA similarly. Probably neither party did enough to give voters the true picture. But how do you even communicate reality to voters when they're all in their own echo chamber?
Okay, those aren't terrible examples of the voters rejecting reality. But I think in neither case did either government prepare the ground and create a convincing narrative in the way that Cameron and Osborne did with austerity and, "we're all in it together."
Now, maybe the coalition austerity was austerity-lite. Some special groups were protected. And the Tories at the 2015GE benefited from cannibalising their coalition partners. But you did have a government that had done some plenty unpopular things for the purpose of balancing books win reelection. The voters were willing to be convinced that it was necessary.
To my mind coalition austerity had a lot of unfortunate features. For instance, it targeted cuts at local governments in poorer areas of the country. So much for all in it together or making tough choices. Also, far from dealing with the underlying ageing related drivers of our fiscal problems they introduced the triple lock which makes the problem even worse! The real problem is that rather than addressing ageing related costs directly we have seen Tory governments slashing spending on everything else instead, and Labour governments looking for ever more distortionary sources of taxation to plug the gap. As a result, people are left asking why are we getting less and paying more for it? While the underlying problem is left unaddressed and continues to drive a year by year worsening in our fiscal picture. Meanwhile politics gets lost in a series of essentially pointless debates on Brexit and small boats. It's enough to drive even a natural optimist like me to despair.
Yes. I'm not a fan of how the coalition implemented austerity, but I think they did pretty well with the politics of it.
Cameron and Osborne sold austerity brilliantly. The notion of the maxed out credit card was very clever too, although was a wholly inappropriate analogy.
Then Johnson came along and spent like a drunken sailor.
This time last year you were criticising me for saying Rachel Reeves is shit.
I don't think people will want a Reform government. But will it be possible to block it in a first past the post system where they are the largest party? I'm not sure. The British public is often quite good at gaming the system to get the result it wants. The fundamental problem is that nobody is willing to make the hard choices necessary to fix our problems. Everybody wants someone else to pay the costs involved. The voters are the real villains here.
I think that's unfair on the voters. With a few honourable exceptions the voters aren't economists, they aren't experts on the public finances. They're only believing what they're being told.
If it was the case that one of the parties had told them the truth about the current situation, and the hard choices that would be required, and had rejected that in favour of platitudes from other parties, then it might be fair to blame the voters.
But that hasn't happened. No-one has levelled with the voters.
May's "dementia tax" is an example of what happens when you try to level with voters. Labour's cuts to WFA similarly. Probably neither party did enough to give voters the true picture. But how do you even communicate reality to voters when they're all in their own echo chamber?
Okay, those aren't terrible examples of the voters rejecting reality. But I think in neither case did either government prepare the ground and create a convincing narrative in the way that Cameron and Osborne did with austerity and, "we're all in it together."
Now, maybe the coalition austerity was austerity-lite. Some special groups were protected. And the Tories at the 2015GE benefited from cannibalising their coalition partners. But you did have a government that had done some plenty unpopular things for the purpose of balancing books win reelection. The voters were willing to be convinced that it was necessary.
To my mind coalition austerity had a lot of unfortunate features. For instance, it targeted cuts at local governments in poorer areas of the country. So much for all in it together or making tough choices. Also, far from dealing with the underlying ageing related drivers of our fiscal problems they introduced the triple lock which makes the problem even worse! The real problem is that rather than addressing ageing related costs directly we have seen Tory governments slashing spending on everything else instead, and Labour governments looking for ever more distortionary sources of taxation to plug the gap. As a result, people are left asking why are we getting less and paying more for it? While the underlying problem is left unaddressed and continues to drive a year by year worsening in our fiscal picture. Meanwhile politics gets lost in a series of essentially pointless debates on Brexit and small boats. It's enough to drive even a natural optimist like me to despair.
Yes. I'm not a fan of how the coalition implemented austerity, but I think they did pretty well with the politics of it.
Cameron and Osborne sold austerity brilliantly. The notion of the maxed out credit card was very clever too, although was a wholly inappropriate analogy.
Then Johnson came along and spent like a drunken sailor.
Due to Covid no different to other major economies.
Always worth remembering that the next election is nearly 4 years away (given Labour is unlikely to go early), and almost inevitably some major world-shaking event that few expect will have changed the political dynamic one way or other by then.
It could be a massive new migrant crisis thanks to natural disaster or another Syria, in which case Farage could be measuring the curtains for No 10.
It could well be a Trump coup in 2028 (with the first round being next year) in which case Farage’s bolt might be shot
Or a financial and fiscal crisis that might just summon back the ghost of the Tories.
OK, what are the known unknowns?
1. Ukraine - there could be a vaguely just peace, Ukrainian refugees return home (good for immigration figures), opportunities for British firms to be involved in reconstruction, general positive feelings; or things get worse, major Russian advances, more refugees. Worst case is World War III!
2. Trump - maybe Trump/Vance are voted out of office, there's a peaceful transition to a Democratic President; maybe there's a full-on Republican coup. Bad Trump stuff hurts Reform UK. Bad Trump stuff might also hurt the economy, hurting the incumbent government. We've seen Trump hurt the right in Canadian and Australian elections, but maybe a Trump who leaves peacefully in 2028 neuters the issue. But a Trump who goes further in destroying democratic norms would be Kryptonite for Farage.
3. Palestine/Israel - things could settle down to the status quo ante. That'd take the heat out of the issue, which could benefit Labour against more radical positions (Greens, Your Party). Things could get worse: Israel go for full-on ethnic cleansing. The UK/EU might have to take a stronger position, like Russian-style sanctions. Maybe if the situation is clearer (we all agree it's genocide), then the government acts and that also takes the heat out of the issue. Syria or Lebanon could blow up again. Major refugee crisis.
4. Iran vs Israel or Saudia Arabia or ?? - could there be renewed conflict between Iran and Israel/US? Iran confirming a nuclear bomb is, I think, unlikely, but might be game-changing. Yemen is already a mess. If conflict spread, could be another major refugee crisis, but the more likely effect is on oil prices. Or will we have decarbonised enough that that matters less?
5. Former Yugoslavia - the former Yugoslavia could yet again collapse into major conflict. Russia could foment conflict, it wouldn't take much. Would Europe/NATO get involved again? Reform UK would presumably oppose any UK involvement: is that popular or is there a rally round the flag effect? A major refugee crisis and one closer to us than Ukraine/Middle East.
6. War between Pakistan and India - this regularly threatens to blow up. What if full scale war breaks out, even a nuclear conflict? Major refugee crisis. Community tensions in the UK.
7. Climate change emergency - we're getting used to hotter summers and more extreme weather. Could there be a more dramatic shift in weather? A hot summer might kill 1000 people in the UK, but those deaths aren't particularly visible. What if we get something a lot worse? That would harm parties opposed to Net Zero (Reform and increasingly the Tories), one would think.
8. Another pandemic - historically, we've had maybe 4-5 pandemics per century, but they don't have to be spread out evenly. Avian flu has been threatening for years, but some other flu pandemic could also happen, as could some new coronavirus pandemic, or something else. RFK Jr's nonsense policies have made an avian flu pandemic more likely!
Volcanic winter, major agricultural pestilence, 9/11 redux, internal Chinese strife, AGI, a good Resident Evil film?
A simple partial interruption to UK food supply caused by bad weather in too many places at once as well as the UK could do it, esp if combined with a murrain. The UK's no longer a favoured customer of EU firms, pace recent improvements, so if things are short they will go for the nearer custom. And if shipping is interrupted that's the long distance frozen stuff slowed down.
Starmer lawyering really doesn't help in these situations, as he ends up saying ambiguous stuff that leads to headlines like the above.
I’m not sure this subcontracting of whether someone has/hasnt been naughty really helps anyone look good. It also extends the story and leads to all sorts of “what ifs.”
In all honesty Starmer should have demanded an explanation from Rayner - if he was satisfied with it, he should stand behind it. If he wasn’t, he should ask for her resignation.
And I fully acknowledge these things are intended to help create political cover - but I’m not sure they really impress anyone.
Always worth remembering that the next election is nearly 4 years away (given Labour is unlikely to go early), and almost inevitably some major world-shaking event that few expect will have changed the political dynamic one way or other by then.
It could be a massive new migrant crisis thanks to natural disaster or another Syria, in which case Farage could be measuring the curtains for No 10.
It could well be a Trump coup in 2028 (with the first round being next year) in which case Farage’s bolt might be shot
Or a financial and fiscal crisis that might just summon back the ghost of the Tories.
OK, what are the known unknowns?
1. Ukraine - there could be a vaguely just peace, Ukrainian refugees return home (good for immigration figures), opportunities for British firms to be involved in reconstruction, general positive feelings; or things get worse, major Russian advances, more refugees. Worst case is World War III!
2. Trump - maybe Trump/Vance are voted out of office, there's a peaceful transition to a Democratic President; maybe there's a full-on Republican coup. Bad Trump stuff hurts Reform UK. Bad Trump stuff might also hurt the economy, hurting the incumbent government. We've seen Trump hurt the right in Canadian and Australian elections, but maybe a Trump who leaves peacefully in 2028 neuters the issue. But a Trump who goes further in destroying democratic norms would be Kryptonite for Farage.
3. Palestine/Israel - things could settle down to the status quo ante. That'd take the heat out of the issue, which could benefit Labour against more radical positions (Greens, Your Party). Things could get worse: Israel go for full-on ethnic cleansing. The UK/EU might have to take a stronger position, like Russian-style sanctions. Maybe if the situation is clearer (we all agree it's genocide), then the government acts and that also takes the heat out of the issue. Syria or Lebanon could blow up again. Major refugee crisis.
4. Iran vs Israel or Saudia Arabia or ?? - could there be renewed conflict between Iran and Israel/US? Iran confirming a nuclear bomb is, I think, unlikely, but might be game-changing. Yemen is already a mess. If conflict spread, could be another major refugee crisis, but the more likely effect is on oil prices. Or will we have decarbonised enough that that matters less?
5. Former Yugoslavia - the former Yugoslavia could yet again collapse into major conflict. Russia could foment conflict, it wouldn't take much. Would Europe/NATO get involved again? Reform UK would presumably oppose any UK involvement: is that popular or is there a rally round the flag effect? A major refugee crisis and one closer to us than Ukraine/Middle East.
6. War between Pakistan and India - this regularly threatens to blow up. What if full scale war breaks out, even a nuclear conflict? Major refugee crisis. Community tensions in the UK.
7. Climate change emergency - we're getting used to hotter summers and more extreme weather. Could there be a more dramatic shift in weather? A hot summer might kill 1000 people in the UK, but those deaths aren't particularly visible. What if we get something a lot worse? That would harm parties opposed to Net Zero (Reform and increasingly the Tories), one would think.
8. Another pandemic - historically, we've had maybe 4-5 pandemics per century, but they don't have to be spread out evenly. Avian flu has been threatening for years, but some other flu pandemic could also happen, as could some new coronavirus pandemic, or something else. RFK Jr's nonsense policies have made an avian flu pandemic more likely!
Volcanic winter, major agricultural pestilence, 9/11 redux, internal Chinese strife, AGI, a good Resident Evil film?
One of those isn't going to happen. (The penultimate one. We've had a good Resident Evil film!)
You forgot aliens and whatthreewords taking over the cosmos. Or at least Milky Way.
What Starmer knew and when he knew it starting to worm its way into the story
Kevin Hollinrake was hinting that Starmer is equally guilty of the cover up. Thank goodness we are not allowed any Tory era whataboutery under your terms.
Are we seeing a Watergate developing over Angela's stamp duty?
There's no Woodward or Bernstein but we do have Dan Hodges and Alison Pearson.
The last Watergate we were promised on here was the curious case of the Britain-helping Afghan migrants and the super-injunction. I don't think that's blown up yet, but I have been away.
What Starmer knew and when he knew it starting to worm its way into the story
Kevin Hollinrake was hinting that Starmer is equally guilty of the cover up. Thank goodness we are not allowed any Tory era whataboutery under your terms.
Are we seeing a Watergate developing over Angela's stamp duty?
There's no Woodward or Bernstein but we do have Dan Hodges and Alison Pearson.
The last Watergate we were promised on here was the curious case of the Britain-helping Afghan migrants and the super-injunction. I don't think that's blown up yet, but I have been away.
I'm still waiting to find out what the Finland Rumour was.
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
The man who accused him has quite a record of offensive posts, writing in one that he wished acid had been thrown over a woman's face instead of soup. (According to the evidence given in court today.)
So you think Linehan is in the right?
Rowling does, so I await the answer to your question...
Yet Linehan has complained about the lack of support from her.
I thought it was reported on here that she had tweeted at least moderate support after his arrest.
But that's about the recent arrest, not this trial. She doesn't normally allow his name to pass her lips. Sensibly, I might add.
Why sensibly? Has Linehan crossed some sort of line?
He's willing to use much lower methods than her in his activism. Whether they are illegal or not, we shall see.
What Starmer knew and when he knew it starting to worm its way into the story
Kevin Hollinrake was hinting that Starmer is equally guilty of the cover up. Thank goodness we are not allowed any Tory era whataboutery under your terms.
Are we seeing a Watergate developing over Angela's stamp duty?
There's no Woodward or Bernstein but we do have Dan Hodges and Alison Pearson.
The last Watergate we were promised on here was the curious case of the Britain-helping Afghan migrants and the super-injunction. I don't think that's blown up yet, but I have been away.
I'm still waiting to find out what the Finland Rumour was.
Always worth remembering that the next election is nearly 4 years away (given Labour is unlikely to go early), and almost inevitably some major world-shaking event that few expect will have changed the political dynamic one way or other by then.
It could be a massive new migrant crisis thanks to natural disaster or another Syria, in which case Farage could be measuring the curtains for No 10.
It could well be a Trump coup in 2028 (with the first round being next year) in which case Farage’s bolt might be shot
Or a financial and fiscal crisis that might just summon back the ghost of the Tories.
OK, what are the known unknowns?
1. Ukraine - there could be a vaguely just peace, Ukrainian refugees return home (good for immigration figures), opportunities for British firms to be involved in reconstruction, general positive feelings; or things get worse, major Russian advances, more refugees. Worst case is World War III!
2. Trump - maybe Trump/Vance are voted out of office, there's a peaceful transition to a Democratic President; maybe there's a full-on Republican coup. Bad Trump stuff hurts Reform UK. Bad Trump stuff might also hurt the economy, hurting the incumbent government. We've seen Trump hurt the right in Canadian and Australian elections, but maybe a Trump who leaves peacefully in 2028 neuters the issue. But a Trump who goes further in destroying democratic norms would be Kryptonite for Farage.
3. Palestine/Israel - things could settle down to the status quo ante. That'd take the heat out of the issue, which could benefit Labour against more radical positions (Greens, Your Party). Things could get worse: Israel go for full-on ethnic cleansing. The UK/EU might have to take a stronger position, like Russian-style sanctions. Maybe if the situation is clearer (we all agree it's genocide), then the government acts and that also takes the heat out of the issue. Syria or Lebanon could blow up again. Major refugee crisis.
4. Iran vs Israel or Saudia Arabia or ?? - could there be renewed conflict between Iran and Israel/US? Iran confirming a nuclear bomb is, I think, unlikely, but might be game-changing. Yemen is already a mess. If conflict spread, could be another major refugee crisis, but the more likely effect is on oil prices. Or will we have decarbonised enough that that matters less?
5. Former Yugoslavia - the former Yugoslavia could yet again collapse into major conflict. Russia could foment conflict, it wouldn't take much. Would Europe/NATO get involved again? Reform UK would presumably oppose any UK involvement: is that popular or is there a rally round the flag effect? A major refugee crisis and one closer to us than Ukraine/Middle East.
6. War between Pakistan and India - this regularly threatens to blow up. What if full scale war breaks out, even a nuclear conflict? Major refugee crisis. Community tensions in the UK.
7. Climate change emergency - we're getting used to hotter summers and more extreme weather. Could there be a more dramatic shift in weather? A hot summer might kill 1000 people in the UK, but those deaths aren't particularly visible. What if we get something a lot worse? That would harm parties opposed to Net Zero (Reform and increasingly the Tories), one would think.
8. Another pandemic - historically, we've had maybe 4-5 pandemics per century, but they don't have to be spread out evenly. Avian flu has been threatening for years, but some other flu pandemic could also happen, as could some new coronavirus pandemic, or something else. RFK Jr's nonsense policies have made an avian flu pandemic more likely!
Volcanic winter, major agricultural pestilence, 9/11 redux, internal Chinese strife, AGI, a good Resident Evil film?
A simple partial interruption to UK food supply caused by bad weather in too many places at once as well as the UK could do it, esp if combined with a murrain. The UK's no longer a favoured customer of EU firms, pace recent improvements, so if things are short they will go for the nearer custom. And if shipping is interrupted that's the long distance frozen stuff slowed down.
Some disruption and you get shortages and inflation, voters blame the incumbents. Big disruption, national crisis, climate change to blame, you might get more of a rally around the flag, dig for Britain nostalgia, and it hurts the anti-Net Zero parties?
What Starmer knew and when he knew it starting to worm its way into the story
Kevin Hollinrake was hinting that Starmer is equally guilty of the cover up. Thank goodness we are not allowed any Tory era whataboutery under your terms.
Are we seeing a Watergate developing over Angela's stamp duty?
There's no Woodward or Bernstein but we do have Dan Hodges and Alison Pearson.
The last Watergate we were promised on here was the curious case of the Britain-helping Afghan migrants and the super-injunction. I don't think that's blown up yet, but I have been away.
I'm still waiting to find out what the Finland Rumour was.
What Starmer knew and when he knew it starting to worm its way into the story
Kevin Hollinrake was hinting that Starmer is equally guilty of the cover up. Thank goodness we are not allowed any Tory era whataboutery under your terms.
Are we seeing a Watergate developing over Angela's stamp duty?
There's no Woodward or Bernstein but we do have Dan Hodges and Alison Pearson.
The last Watergate we were promised on here was the curious case of the Britain-helping Afghan migrants and the super-injunction. I don't think that's blown up yet, but I have been away.
I'm still waiting to find out what the Finland Rumour was.
Always worth remembering that the next election is nearly 4 years away (given Labour is unlikely to go early), and almost inevitably some major world-shaking event that few expect will have changed the political dynamic one way or other by then.
It could be a massive new migrant crisis thanks to natural disaster or another Syria, in which case Farage could be measuring the curtains for No 10.
It could well be a Trump coup in 2028 (with the first round being next year) in which case Farage’s bolt might be shot
Or a financial and fiscal crisis that might just summon back the ghost of the Tories.
OK, what are the known unknowns?
1. Ukraine - there could be a vaguely just peace, Ukrainian refugees return home (good for immigration figures), opportunities for British firms to be involved in reconstruction, general positive feelings; or things get worse, major Russian advances, more refugees. Worst case is World War III!
2. Trump - maybe Trump/Vance are voted out of office, there's a peaceful transition to a Democratic President; maybe there's a full-on Republican coup. Bad Trump stuff hurts Reform UK. Bad Trump stuff might also hurt the economy, hurting the incumbent government. We've seen Trump hurt the right in Canadian and Australian elections, but maybe a Trump who leaves peacefully in 2028 neuters the issue. But a Trump who goes further in destroying democratic norms would be Kryptonite for Farage.
3. Palestine/Israel - things could settle down to the status quo ante. That'd take the heat out of the issue, which could benefit Labour against more radical positions (Greens, Your Party). Things could get worse: Israel go for full-on ethnic cleansing. The UK/EU might have to take a stronger position, like Russian-style sanctions. Maybe if the situation is clearer (we all agree it's genocide), then the government acts and that also takes the heat out of the issue. Syria or Lebanon could blow up again. Major refugee crisis.
4. Iran vs Israel or Saudia Arabia or ?? - could there be renewed conflict between Iran and Israel/US? Iran confirming a nuclear bomb is, I think, unlikely, but might be game-changing. Yemen is already a mess. If conflict spread, could be another major refugee crisis, but the more likely effect is on oil prices. Or will we have decarbonised enough that that matters less?
5. Former Yugoslavia - the former Yugoslavia could yet again collapse into major conflict. Russia could foment conflict, it wouldn't take much. Would Europe/NATO get involved again? Reform UK would presumably oppose any UK involvement: is that popular or is there a rally round the flag effect? A major refugee crisis and one closer to us than Ukraine/Middle East.
6. War between Pakistan and India - this regularly threatens to blow up. What if full scale war breaks out, even a nuclear conflict? Major refugee crisis. Community tensions in the UK.
7. Climate change emergency - we're getting used to hotter summers and more extreme weather. Could there be a more dramatic shift in weather? A hot summer might kill 1000 people in the UK, but those deaths aren't particularly visible. What if we get something a lot worse? That would harm parties opposed to Net Zero (Reform and increasingly the Tories), one would think.
8. Another pandemic - historically, we've had maybe 4-5 pandemics per century, but they don't have to be spread out evenly. Avian flu has been threatening for years, but some other flu pandemic could also happen, as could some new coronavirus pandemic, or something else. RFK Jr's nonsense policies have made an avian flu pandemic more likely!
Volcanic winter, major agricultural pestilence, 9/11 redux, internal Chinese strife, AGI, a good Resident Evil film?
23. Taylor Swift exposed after secret affair with Boris Johnson.
I don't think people will want a Reform government. But will it be possible to block it in a first past the post system where they are the largest party? I'm not sure. The British public is often quite good at gaming the system to get the result it wants. The fundamental problem is that nobody is willing to make the hard choices necessary to fix our problems. Everybody wants someone else to pay the costs involved. The voters are the real villains here.
I think that's unfair on the voters. With a few honourable exceptions the voters aren't economists, they aren't experts on the public finances. They're only believing what they're being told.
If it was the case that one of the parties had told them the truth about the current situation, and the hard choices that would be required, and had rejected that in favour of platitudes from other parties, then it might be fair to blame the voters.
But that hasn't happened. No-one has levelled with the voters.
May's "dementia tax" is an example of what happens when you try to level with voters. Labour's cuts to WFA similarly. Probably neither party did enough to give voters the true picture. But how do you even communicate reality to voters when they're all in their own echo chamber?
Okay, those aren't terrible examples of the voters rejecting reality. But I think in neither case did either government prepare the ground and create a convincing narrative in the way that Cameron and Osborne did with austerity and, "we're all in it together."
Now, maybe the coalition austerity was austerity-lite. Some special groups were protected. And the Tories at the 2015GE benefited from cannibalising their coalition partners. But you did have a government that had done some plenty unpopular things for the purpose of balancing books win reelection. The voters were willing to be convinced that it was necessary.
To my mind coalition austerity had a lot of unfortunate features. For instance, it targeted cuts at local governments in poorer areas of the country. So much for all in it together or making tough choices. Also, far from dealing with the underlying ageing related drivers of our fiscal problems they introduced the triple lock which makes the problem even worse! The real problem is that rather than addressing ageing related costs directly we have seen Tory governments slashing spending on everything else instead, and Labour governments looking for ever more distortionary sources of taxation to plug the gap. As a result, people are left asking why are we getting less and paying more for it? While the underlying problem is left unaddressed and continues to drive a year by year worsening in our fiscal picture. Meanwhile politics gets lost in a series of essentially pointless debates on Brexit and small boats. It's enough to drive even a natural optimist like me to despair.
Yes. I'm not a fan of how the coalition implemented austerity, but I think they did pretty well with the politics of it.
Cameron and Osborne sold austerity brilliantly. The notion of the maxed out credit card was very clever too, although was a wholly inappropriate analogy.
Then Johnson came along and spent like a drunken sailor.
This time last year you were criticising me for saying Rachel Reeves is shit.
She still is
Indeed but to be to fair to him he’s been on a journey and no longer does that and is critical of labour at times too.
I think for some of us the buyers remorse came quickly. Others it didn’t.
Always worth remembering that the next election is nearly 4 years away (given Labour is unlikely to go early), and almost inevitably some major world-shaking event that few expect will have changed the political dynamic one way or other by then.
It could be a massive new migrant crisis thanks to natural disaster or another Syria, in which case Farage could be measuring the curtains for No 10.
It could well be a Trump coup in 2028 (with the first round being next year) in which case Farage’s bolt might be shot
Or a financial and fiscal crisis that might just summon back the ghost of the Tories.
OK, what are the known unknowns?
1. Ukraine - there could be a vaguely just peace, Ukrainian refugees return home (good for immigration figures), opportunities for British firms to be involved in reconstruction, general positive feelings; or things get worse, major Russian advances, more refugees. Worst case is World War III!
2. Trump - maybe Trump/Vance are voted out of office, there's a peaceful transition to a Democratic President; maybe there's a full-on Republican coup. Bad Trump stuff hurts Reform UK. Bad Trump stuff might also hurt the economy, hurting the incumbent government. We've seen Trump hurt the right in Canadian and Australian elections, but maybe a Trump who leaves peacefully in 2028 neuters the issue. But a Trump who goes further in destroying democratic norms would be Kryptonite for Farage.
3. Palestine/Israel - things could settle down to the status quo ante. That'd take the heat out of the issue, which could benefit Labour against more radical positions (Greens, Your Party). Things could get worse: Israel go for full-on ethnic cleansing. The UK/EU might have to take a stronger position, like Russian-style sanctions. Maybe if the situation is clearer (we all agree it's genocide), then the government acts and that also takes the heat out of the issue. Syria or Lebanon could blow up again. Major refugee crisis.
4. Iran vs Israel or Saudia Arabia or ?? - could there be renewed conflict between Iran and Israel/US? Iran confirming a nuclear bomb is, I think, unlikely, but might be game-changing. Yemen is already a mess. If conflict spread, could be another major refugee crisis, but the more likely effect is on oil prices. Or will we have decarbonised enough that that matters less?
5. Former Yugoslavia - the former Yugoslavia could yet again collapse into major conflict. Russia could foment conflict, it wouldn't take much. Would Europe/NATO get involved again? Reform UK would presumably oppose any UK involvement: is that popular or is there a rally round the flag effect? A major refugee crisis and one closer to us than Ukraine/Middle East.
6. War between Pakistan and India - this regularly threatens to blow up. What if full scale war breaks out, even a nuclear conflict? Major refugee crisis. Community tensions in the UK.
7. Climate change emergency - we're getting used to hotter summers and more extreme weather. Could there be a more dramatic shift in weather? A hot summer might kill 1000 people in the UK, but those deaths aren't particularly visible. What if we get something a lot worse? That would harm parties opposed to Net Zero (Reform and increasingly the Tories), one would think.
8. Another pandemic - historically, we've had maybe 4-5 pandemics per century, but they don't have to be spread out evenly. Avian flu has been threatening for years, but some other flu pandemic could also happen, as could some new coronavirus pandemic, or something else. RFK Jr's nonsense policies have made an avian flu pandemic more likely!
Volcanic winter, major agricultural pestilence, 9/11 redux, internal Chinese strife, AGI, a good Resident Evil film?
A simple partial interruption to UK food supply caused by bad weather in too many places at once as well as the UK could do it, esp if combined with a murrain. The UK's no longer a favoured customer of EU firms, pace recent improvements, so if things are short they will go for the nearer custom. And if shipping is interrupted that's the long distance frozen stuff slowed down.
It took me two years to get through the large bag of rice I bought during covid.
Always worth remembering that the next election is nearly 4 years away (given Labour is unlikely to go early), and almost inevitably some major world-shaking event that few expect will have changed the political dynamic one way or other by then.
It could be a massive new migrant crisis thanks to natural disaster or another Syria, in which case Farage could be measuring the curtains for No 10.
It could well be a Trump coup in 2028 (with the first round being next year) in which case Farage’s bolt might be shot
Or a financial and fiscal crisis that might just summon back the ghost of the Tories.
OK, what are the known unknowns?
1. Ukraine - there could be a vaguely just peace, Ukrainian refugees return home (good for immigration figures), opportunities for British firms to be involved in reconstruction, general positive feelings; or things get worse, major Russian advances, more refugees. Worst case is World War III!
2. Trump - maybe Trump/Vance are voted out of office, there's a peaceful transition to a Democratic President; maybe there's a full-on Republican coup. Bad Trump stuff hurts Reform UK. Bad Trump stuff might also hurt the economy, hurting the incumbent government. We've seen Trump hurt the right in Canadian and Australian elections, but maybe a Trump who leaves peacefully in 2028 neuters the issue. But a Trump who goes further in destroying democratic norms would be Kryptonite for Farage.
3. Palestine/Israel - things could settle down to the status quo ante. That'd take the heat out of the issue, which could benefit Labour against more radical positions (Greens, Your Party). Things could get worse: Israel go for full-on ethnic cleansing. The UK/EU might have to take a stronger position, like Russian-style sanctions. Maybe if the situation is clearer (we all agree it's genocide), then the government acts and that also takes the heat out of the issue. Syria or Lebanon could blow up again. Major refugee crisis.
4. Iran vs Israel or Saudia Arabia or ?? - could there be renewed conflict between Iran and Israel/US? Iran confirming a nuclear bomb is, I think, unlikely, but might be game-changing. Yemen is already a mess. If conflict spread, could be another major refugee crisis, but the more likely effect is on oil prices. Or will we have decarbonised enough that that matters less?
5. Former Yugoslavia - the former Yugoslavia could yet again collapse into major conflict. Russia could foment conflict, it wouldn't take much. Would Europe/NATO get involved again? Reform UK would presumably oppose any UK involvement: is that popular or is there a rally round the flag effect? A major refugee crisis and one closer to us than Ukraine/Middle East.
6. War between Pakistan and India - this regularly threatens to blow up. What if full scale war breaks out, even a nuclear conflict? Major refugee crisis. Community tensions in the UK.
7. Climate change emergency - we're getting used to hotter summers and more extreme weather. Could there be a more dramatic shift in weather? A hot summer might kill 1000 people in the UK, but those deaths aren't particularly visible. What if we get something a lot worse? That would harm parties opposed to Net Zero (Reform and increasingly the Tories), one would think.
8. Another pandemic - historically, we've had maybe 4-5 pandemics per century, but they don't have to be spread out evenly. Avian flu has been threatening for years, but some other flu pandemic could also happen, as could some new coronavirus pandemic, or something else. RFK Jr's nonsense policies have made an avian flu pandemic more likely!
Volcanic winter, major agricultural pestilence, 9/11 redux, internal Chinese strife, AGI, a good Resident Evil film?
A simple partial interruption to UK food supply caused by bad weather in too many places at once as well as the UK could do it, esp if combined with a murrain. The UK's no longer a favoured customer of EU firms, pace recent improvements, so if things are short they will go for the nearer custom. And if shipping is interrupted that's the long distance frozen stuff slowed down.
Some disruption and you get shortages and inflation, voters blame the incumbents. Big disruption, national crisis, climate change to blame, you might get more of a rally around the flag, dig for Britain nostalgia, and it hurts the anti-Net Zero parties?
It wouldn't be a bad thing if more were done to provide allotments and to discourage their concreting over, that's for sure.
I wonder what pols have them (or actively grow veg in their back gardens)? There's Mr Corbyn of course.
What Starmer knew and when he knew it starting to worm its way into the story
Kevin Hollinrake was hinting that Starmer is equally guilty of the cover up. Thank goodness we are not allowed any Tory era whataboutery under your terms.
Are we seeing a Watergate developing over Angela's stamp duty?
There's no Woodward or Bernstein but we do have Dan Hodges and Alison Pearson.
The last Watergate we were promised on here was the curious case of the Britain-helping Afghan migrants and the super-injunction. I don't think that's blown up yet, but I have been away.
I'm still waiting to find out what the Finland Rumour was.
Psst! Psst! Sebelius was a wrong'un! Pass it on!
Was that the dubious incident in the Karelia Suite ?
Comments
The polls show the Conservatives retaining only around 63% of their 2024 voters, similar figures for Labour to be fair.
The 2024 seats you mention, where Labour came first and the Conservatives second, simply do not look like that today and will look even less like that by the time of the next GE.
I respect the old true blues who will die in the ditch with the old brigade, I just think they are significantly outnumbered by the sort of instinctive Conservatives whose motivation to kick Labiur will prove stronger than habitual or historic attachment to the Conservative Party.
Graham Linehan accuser ‘is disgraced transgender police officer’
Watson was sacked by Leicestershire Police after being found guilty by a misconduct hearing of sending former police officer Harry Miller more than 1,200 messages over an 18-month period, branding him a “Nazi”, a “bigot” and a “wife-beater”.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/04/graham-linehan-accuser-is-disgraced-police-officer/
The deputy prime minister used a small family conveyancing firm in Kent to handle the purchase of a Hove property at the centre of a tax dispute, the BBC understands.
Angela Rayner, who has admitted she underpaid stamp duty on the property but said she received inaccurate legal advice, used the conveyancers Verrico & Associates.
The Herne Bay-based high street firm employs six people, including two licensed conveyancers. It doesn't list tax advice among its services, although on LinkedIn the managing director states that "through our connections we can also offer advice on Wills, Probate and Tax planning".
Experts have previously said that conveyancers would be unlikely to be able to give specialist tax advice of the kind Rayner required.
Allies of Rayner have said she received advice from a conveyancer and from two other trust experts. It remains unclear who the two trust experts were, and whether they have specialised knowledge on stamp duty tax.
Someone answering the phone at the conveyancing firm would not give their name but said "we're not talking to journalists".
The name of the company, which appears on a Land Registry document, was first reported by The Guardian.
Further evidence that the Trump admin lied repeatedly (to the public and a judge) when it tried to deport 600 children to Guatemala in the dead of night.
They claimed that every parent had requested reunification. The Guatemalan government confirms that was false.
https://x.com/ReichlinMelnick/status/1963427793775018489
Government of national union then ?
Just have them tell Trump they’ll take as much American O&G as they can supply to replace the Russian supply, in exchange for the US sending old and obsolete weapons to Ukraine.
"In rare interviews with NBC News, a dozen federal judges—appointed by Democratic and Republican presidents, including Trump, and serving around the country — pointed to a pattern they say has recently emerged:
"Lower court judges are handed contentious cases involving the Trump administration. They painstakingly research the law to reach their rulings. When they go against Trump, administration officials and allies criticize the judges in harsh terms. The government appeals to the Supreme Court, with its 6-3 conservative majority.
"And then the Supreme Court, in emergency rulings, swiftly rejects the judges’ decisions with little to no explanation.
"'It is inexcusable,' a judge said of the Supreme Court justices."
https://x.com/gtconway3d/status/1963581976474267705
Do we really want to import all this into the UK via Farage and his crew ?
The question is: will they?
Strange question, Big Ange works in London, lives in Manchester, London or Hove depending on who she is talking to. Why is she getting a tiny firm in Kent to do this?
"Father Ted co-creator Graham Linehan has gone on trial in London on charges of harassment and criminal damage against a transgender woman.
Westminster Magistrates' Court was told the 57-year-old allegedly used social media to "relentlessly" publish offensive posts about an 18-year-old trans campaigner."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0x2kx08wdo
Now, maybe the coalition austerity was austerity-lite. Some special groups were protected. And the Tories at the 2015GE benefited from cannibalising their coalition partners. But you did have a government that had done some plenty unpopular things for the purpose of balancing books win reelection. The voters were willing to be convinced that it was necessary.
* I don't plan going to the US for a while yet. Mind you, I'm f***** if the free speech USA invades the anti-free speech UK and replaces Starmer with Farage.
There is much evidence, but Farage's recent time in Washington is one piece.
Holyrood and Senedd will give some indication of how committed Reform indicators are, and how much of the shame twins base/core can be relied upon come H or double HH
"You published a post on X that was deemed to be intended to instil hatred and incite violence"
"What post?"
"I can't tell you that"
Indeed I doubt politics will matter to us by then
1. Ukraine - there could be a vaguely just peace, Ukrainian refugees return home (good for immigration figures), opportunities for British firms to be involved in reconstruction, general positive feelings; or things get worse, major Russian advances, more refugees. Worst case is World War III!
2. Trump - maybe Trump/Vance are voted out of office, there's a peaceful transition to a Democratic President; maybe there's a full-on Republican coup. Bad Trump stuff hurts Reform UK. Bad Trump stuff might also hurt the economy, hurting the incumbent government. We've seen Trump hurt the right in Canadian and Australian elections, but maybe a Trump who leaves peacefully in 2028 neuters the issue. But a Trump who goes further in destroying democratic norms would be Kryptonite for Farage.
3. Palestine/Israel - things could settle down to the status quo ante. That'd take the heat out of the issue, which could benefit Labour against more radical positions (Greens, Your Party). Things could get worse: Israel go for full-on ethnic cleansing. The UK/EU might have to take a stronger position, like Russian-style sanctions. Maybe if the situation is clearer (we all agree it's genocide), then the government acts and that also takes the heat out of the issue. Syria or Lebanon could blow up again. Major refugee crisis.
4. Iran vs Israel or Saudia Arabia or ?? - could there be renewed conflict between Iran and Israel/US? Iran confirming a nuclear bomb is, I think, unlikely, but might be game-changing. Yemen is already a mess. If conflict spread, could be another major refugee crisis, but the more likely effect is on oil prices. Or will we have decarbonised enough that that matters less?
5. Former Yugoslavia - the former Yugoslavia could yet again collapse into major conflict. Russia could foment conflict, it wouldn't take much. Would Europe/NATO get involved again? Reform UK would presumably oppose any UK involvement: is that popular or is there a rally round the flag effect? A major refugee crisis and one closer to us than Ukraine/Middle East.
6. War between Pakistan and India - this regularly threatens to blow up. What if full scale war breaks out, even a nuclear conflict? Major refugee crisis. Community tensions in the UK.
7. Climate change emergency - we're getting used to hotter summers and more extreme weather. Could there be a more dramatic shift in weather? A hot summer might kill 1000 people in the UK, but those deaths aren't particularly visible. What if we get something a lot worse? That would harm parties opposed to Net Zero (Reform and increasingly the Tories), one would think.
8. Another pandemic - historically, we've had maybe 4-5 pandemics per century, but they don't have to be spread out evenly. Avian flu has been threatening for years, but some other flu pandemic could also happen, as could some new coronavirus pandemic, or something else. RFK Jr's nonsense policies have made an avian flu pandemic more likely!
For instance, it targeted cuts at local governments in poorer areas of the country. So much for all in it together or making tough choices.
Also, far from dealing with the underlying ageing related drivers of our fiscal problems they introduced the triple lock which makes the problem even worse!
The real problem is that rather than addressing ageing related costs directly we have seen Tory governments slashing spending on everything else instead, and Labour governments looking for ever more distortionary sources of taxation to plug the gap. As a result, people are left asking why are we getting less and paying more for it? While the underlying problem is left unaddressed and continues to drive a year by year worsening in our fiscal picture.
Meanwhile politics gets lost in a series of essentially pointless debates on Brexit and small boats. It's enough to drive even a natural optimist like me to despair.
We have researched Farage's fiasco in Congress. The mainstream media and Farage fans won't be reporting that Farage was f*****' beasted and owned by Jamie Raskin. He was humiliated. But you won't see that on a TV screen near you.
Angela Rayner having her pants pulled down is far more newsworthy than Farage's modesty being exposed.
The time to do that is at the station.
Ref 31.5%
Lab 20.2%
Con 17.0%
LD 13.7%
Grn 8.9%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2025
The Trump/Putin suck-ups always make the mistake of thinking that they can call in favours from the big guy, but the big guy frequently has other ideas that don't align with theirs.
"It is alleged that on the 19th April 2025, you published a post on X, that was deemed to be intended to instil hatred and incite violence on the grounds of sexual orientation "...
"What was the post"
"I can't tell you at the moment"
So they had remembered the exact date, but either forgot or forgot to ask what the tweet was.
It’s a fair question to ask, more pertinent if they ask you for a voluntary interview I’d say.
This is going to be interesting.
Maybe it is all you are left with
We’re going to get set 350 and barely get half way there. Again.
As for Linehan, three weeks ago he was complaining.
https://x.com/icanseeforever1/status/1956246712273789167?s=61
Imagine this was a rape. You might expect them to say the time and rough location of the crime, but you would not expect them to state the victim's name, especially in public.
We can do whatever we like as we are free citizens of PB
https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1962847107343139014
Which got 20m views as Elon Musk retweeted it.
Also this one
https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1963465628053848363
Which illustrates @Cyclefree’s point well.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/crm4mxrg40pt
Starmer lawyering really doesn't help in these situations, as he ends up saying ambiguous stuff that leads to headlines like the above.
They need to contribute with the bat, otherwise the selectors should be dropped.
Look at the Rayner detbate. It’s all yeah but Tories.
We need some ideas people to emerge and some competence.
I do think as PB lefties we realise there are issues that need addressing.
There's no Woodward or Bernstein but we do have Dan Hodges and Alison Pearson.
TSE will use that picture again.
Then Johnson came along and spent like a drunken sailor.
She still is
In all honesty Starmer should have demanded an explanation from Rayner - if he was satisfied with it, he should stand behind it. If he wasn’t, he should ask for her resignation.
And I fully acknowledge these things are intended to help create political cover - but I’m not sure they really impress anyone.
I think for some of us the buyers remorse came quickly. Others it didn’t.
https://x.com/MattCartoonist/status/1963636294845604242
I wonder what pols have them (or actively grow veg in their back gardens)? There's Mr Corbyn of course.