Corbyn continues to help get right wing governments elected – politicalbetting.com
Corbyn continues to help get right wing governments elected – politicalbetting.com
Our poll of over 1000 16/17 year olds for tomorrow’s Sunday Times shows how the newest additions to the electorate may vote. Including Your Party, it’s a virtual tie between Corbyn’s new Party, Labour & ReformWithout Labour hold a 7 point lead over Reform. Read it all below! https://t.co/CzAW2l6dov pic.twitter.com/6TiSqbP73b
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Cheers, Dr. Foxy.
I eat a fair amount of fish and spinach, so that seems alright.
Bridget Phillipson on Trevor Phillips has said the government are looking at reform of the ECHR
Has she asked Starmer ?
Labour must take a good chunk of blame, both for promising change and not delivering any, and for its ruthless approach to internal dissent and independence of thought, expelling most of those who will end up prominent in this new party.
He’s died on the toilet like Elvis after too many Big Macs and there’s an insurrection inside MAGA as the last anyone saw was JD Vance going to the McDonalds drive-thru for the boss
Jobs
Energy security
Balance payments
Not wanting to syphon cash to despots and dictators
Stopping UK production will not reduce CO2 emissions. Importing LNG from Qatar rather than piping gas ashore has a much greater carbon footprint.
Nor will it reduce consumption. Not while the government is subsidising new build CCGT and blue hydrogen projects tolock in demand for natural gas for decades to come.
And they don't like Bonnie Blue. This gives me a bit of hope. Maybe they are normal.
Tories also up to 14% with 16 and 17 year olds compared to 8% with 18 to 24s at the general election
If Trump were gone, Vance would be wetting himself with glee.
Is there a sex breakdown on the Andrew Tate and Bonnie Blue questions?
Ditch net zero say Reform, we need to ditch Net Stupid. I don’t understand the rationale of any policy on energy that doesn’t combine bringing up more oil and gas with a transition to renewables.
I suspect it will be a flash in the pan, and be absorbed into either a post-Starmer Labour Party or into the Greens, and possibly only stand in a minority of seats.
Norway’s electricity crisis is about to hit Britain
European countries like the UK have become too reliant on cheap hydro from Scandinavia
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/5d55f3c61463b402
That's the gift link so should be free to read. TL/DR; Norway is running out of water which is a key ingredient of export-grade electricity.
For me the transition needs to be on a sensible timescale and not an arbitrary date
I don't see any deal being done if that is on the table.
Foul on Konsa here so there is precedent…
Sorry. I mean penalty to Manchester United. 🤪
https://x.com/slbsn/status/1961765004648047073?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
I’d rebrand it. “Energy Freedom”.
We can’t really refine our own oil so we have to export it - we’re reliant on imports.
We can’t bring up enough gas now - a quarter of power is from burning gas and we have to import half. Burn more gas even with more production = reliance on imports.
Wind? That is ours. Reform demand that we literally switch the windfarms off. The “patriots” in Reform want us reliant on foreigners.
https://x.com/deariain/status/1958411962368348604?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ
Reform and Trump are deranged about windfarms
Lost and he would have gone, but he has the international break and the end of the transfer window to resolve issues especially the goalkeeper and midfield
My main season bet is Chelsea top 2 at 7.6.
Although it is likely Vance would fail to bring a swathe of the MAGA crowd with him. He could be plumbing remarkable levels of unpopularity.
"I didn't vote for him!"
Well, actually when you voted for a 79 year old with a bunch of health issues and a terrible diet - you did.
A win against West Ham this afternoon would see Forest again up there too. Although who the hell knows what is going on behind the scenes there.
An immaculately beautiful Alpine lake, in the saltzkammergut, playground of the Nazi elite. Who hid their favourite artworks in the salt mines in the mountains
I like it!
The moon landing decision was made long *after* 1) Staging rockets was proved, 2) the multi stage rocket equations were developed and proven 3) fuels with sufficient ISP were developed. And demonstrated in working rocket engines.
Which meant that scientists could tell JFK that they could land multiple tons on the moon, given a jillion dollars.
There are large areas, in non-burning applications of fossil fuels where we don’t have the answers. Yet.
Politicians with arts degrees demanding the tide turn won’t turn the tide.
If Ed Quetaband was actually useful, the U.K. would be building a non-fossil fuel steel works. That technology is on the edge of practicality - first trial plants are being built elsewhere - and may offer cheaper steel in the long run.
But he is hooked on the reductionist approach. Which, in reality, just means sending the emissions abroad with the jobs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYQ8AEi3b_s
I find as I get older, my views become more contradictory and nuanced and I appreciate the difficulties and complexities of Government and governing.
On the North Sea, we have experts on here who, if I’ve understood them correctly, say once these oil and gas fields are capped off or closed down or decommissioned or whatever the terminology it is practically impossible to re-open them with current technology.
I’m curious as to whether the prohibitive cost of extracting the oil and gas actually makes a nonsense of the Badenoch sound bite (though as all good soundbites such as the notion the Appeals Court was more interested in the rights of migrants than residents it’s a distortion of the facts and the truth).
Just because you can get your oil and gas prohibitively expensively from your own waters doesn’t mean you should. Yes, we should be investing in energy security but part of an overall policy which, in my view, should be much more strongly regulated so the energy company cartel loses the power (so to speak) it currently uses and abuses.
Channelling my inner Corbyn there for a moment. There are aspects of the man and the way he does politics I like and the fact he has won re-election in his corner of London for over 40 years speaks volumes but there are aspects which he does wrong and for all the weasel words about peace and humanity, associating with those who are the nation’s sworn enemies doesn’t do him any favours with the electorate. To seek to resolve conflict is laudable and no one can gainsay the efforts of Major, Blair and many others in Northern Ireland but to achieve peace, everyone must want peace and commit to it and take actions to confirm that commitment. Standing with those who are clearly still committed to terror and violence is not what a serious politician should be about.
There is a market for a left party, but at this point it will be one quite self-evidently born out of the pro-Palestinian movement - a (possibly) friendlier faced WPGB. And it's birthing pains already threaten its success - it does give "9 lefties trying to give birth to a new party in 1 month" vibes.
On the threat to the Greens, I think Geography will help them here - in areas of Green strength, Left will struggle to get traction, particularly if Left and Green do not go for each other too hard. Which is not to say they will never nobble each other - in the GE, Huddersfield Greens did very well of the back of there being no Gaza Independent and having the backing of the "Community Action Group", where as in the locals they were nobbled in Greenhead ward by the vote splitting of a Gaza Independent.
These Austrian valleys really are Deep Europe. If we are to liberate Europe from its miseries and purge it of guilt and decline, we will need to call on these profound cultural resources. Places where the muscle memory of European-ness is vital and strong, still
AEIOU
The main areas of carbon emissions we still need to resolve - heating buildings, domestic transport - already have off-the-shelf solutions. EVs and heat pumps (or other electrical heating systems), both of which have been around for decades. Agriculture is only particularly tricky one, but there are some ideas there too.
And we are building steel works that run off electricity. Indeed most of the steel in the UK is already produced that way.
I agree that offshoring is a severe limitation on our progress so far, and the government is resolving that with CBAM in 2027. What's not to like?
Anything can be made simple if you chop off the awkward bits. Once you engage with all of reality, it becomes complex.
This is the kind of thing that conservatives used to be proud of doing- dealing with the world as it is, not the cartoon we would like. What the heck has happened?
Sky just displaying chart showing Reform have led every poll since 14th April
'Reeves original sin was to say we are not going to raise income tax, vat, or NI - terrible mistake leaving her no room to manoeuvre'
We’ve talked about hydrogen reduction steel making, but not much is actually happening. Keeping electricity prices high is government policy, to reduce demand - the reductionist philosophy. This means that no-one is prepared to build a new facility.
Madness to lose 40k jobs by prematurely stopping north sea development, especially when we will just switch to imports - Labour, SNP, ScotGreens
Madness to have policy blown in the wind by internal changes of leader - the Tories on wind
Madness to leave us reliant on imports by shutting wind down - Reform
I'm very happy with the LibDem position as we know we need to keep oil and gas as we transition into renewables. Will be hard to get heard, but I have a cunning plan to get out there...
That article does not remotely debunk the claim that millionaires are fleeing the country.
After several paragraphs of waffle it turns its attention to the claims of Henley & Partners and the figures from New World:
“ But New World Wealth’s database tends to focus on entrepreneurs and company founders (around 50% of the 150,000 on its database). This group is often more mobile, with wealthier millionaires being more easily tracked than millionaires with fewer assets. Such figures do not include property millionaires.”
This criticism is absolutely valueless for what the article is trying to claim as it instead highlights that the figures are based on precisely the people the UK needs to keep - entrepreneurs and company founders. Property millionaires are completely irrelevant as it’s such a vast cohort and potentially adds very little to the UK as a creator of growth or jobs.
“ Second, Henley & Partners says that migration figures are based, among several other measures, on evidence of whether the millionaires in the database spend more than six months in another country. This means that someone who, for example, lived overseas for seven months of the year but retained a UK passport, home and business could be counted as an out-migrant.”
Again this argument does not seem to understand it isn’t the zinger it thinks it is. The number of people who own a Uk passport/property/business does not equal the number who are fully resident in the UK for tax purposes. For example I’ve been considering buying a specific house in the Uk for personal reasons but I would be ensuring I did not spend more than six months, in fact closer to seven, in the UK so I do not get dragged into the tax net. So the people the article is referring to, thinking it’s showing that millionaires are not leaving the UK are, more importantly, leaving the UK for long enough periods to reduce their exposure to UK tax.
“ All of this suggests the estimates of out-migration constitute a tiny fraction of the UK’s millionaire population. These could be the UK’s wealthiest millionaires and biggest taxpayers – but without better data it’s impossible to say for certain.”
So having pointed out that a lot of the UK millionaires are property millionaires they then say that those leaving are a tiny proportion of UK millionaires - the fact that these are the entrepreneurs who set up and run businesses doesn’t matter to the article because that doesn’t fit their argument that it’s just a question of proportion of “millionaires” leaving without actually examining the “quality” or enhancement to the UK they give/are taking away.
2/2
And then they point out they don’t actually have any good data so have made the argument based on feels.
“ Some newspapers, writers, influencers and those in the finance, luxury and property sectors may have good reason to perpetuate a sense of a wealth exodus. For them it may be a good story, but we feel it needs to be challenged.”
Then actually challenge it rather than allowing useful idiots to spread articles like this thinking they answer the problem so there isn’t a problem - maybe challenge figures by multiple sources rather than a non-challenge of figures by Henley Partners and Credit Suisse.
It’s purely an article that is putting its hands over its eyes and shouting “lalalalala” in the hope it goes away but in no way does it challenge the reality that thousands of big tax payers and entrepreneurs are leaving or have left the UK and that really isn’t a good thing. Instead of trying to deny it’s happening, ask why and then find ways to stop or reverse the flow.
Don’t forget that it’s a long holiday weekend (Labor Day) in the US so no one does any work.
Yup, and here is the proof that Labour started the small boat voter import process...
If you're talking the extraction of North Sea oil to support those Pharma etc, it's not as simple as "UK oil for UK pharma" - we export most of our oil production and import that which we use in those types of industries. I don't see any reason why we shouldn't extract our own oil if it economically sensible to do so - but don't pretend it's as simple as you suggest. Ultimately the price of oil products is set in a global market and increased UK production would have no material impact on them.
"It's easy- they should just do X" is excellent politics (see Reform) but hopeless as a template for government.
Starmer's government is poor in many ways, but it's at least sometimes trying to engage with reality. That makes it the least bad option on the shelf and an improvement on 2019-24.
I am sure he is alive. But something has happened which made him stop tweeting and go to ground. They are covering - badly - by having somebody tweet on his account and feeding the MAGA faithful with obvious false flag photos and videos.
The people are more charming and laid back than the Germans - still a bit punctilious but more chilled
Everything is less expensive that Switzerland (albeit I’m still glad I’m not paying)
The food is probably the best in the teutosphere (not a high bar but still)
It’s often very beautiful, rammed with tradition and history
They should really sell it as a tourist destination. People will totally lap it up. You could have “skiiing holidays” in the winter when the snows are here. Build “chalets” for them. In summer, hiking and “sightseeing” and all that
I think I’m really onto something here
Excellent contribution from Mr Stodge, earlier!
The trouble with getting old is that, if you haven't seen it all before, you've seen a lot of it. And you've seen politicians reverse their positions. Edward Heath, to mention a previous Conservative leader, and election winner, must be spinning in his grave over the anti-EU stance now adopted by the Conservative party.
One feature of the 'migrant crisis' which upsets me is the apparent assumption that all migrants are trying to get here because they think UK is a land flowing with milk and honey. I knew some of the Asians expelled from Uganda back in the 70's; I would say that almost without exception they were anxious to look after themselves and their families, and I suspect that that applies to those fleeing persecution and disaster now. I might grumble about the way some of them have turned out.... our local MP, Dame Priti, was the child of such immigrants, but still!
Complaint is made that many of todays immigrants are 'young men'; hasn't it always been the case that it's young men who travel to seek better conditions, with aim of bringing their dependents afterwards?
Will the tories go into the next GE promising to raise income tax, NI or VAT? Absolutely not.
There is a case to call on the left to hold their noses and not rock the boat. But that case relies on the centre doing their bit to keep out the right. Right now, it seems like Starmer is presuming on the left's support and using it as licence to pander to the illiberal right; in the hope of winning back potential reform voters. He is failing to go in to bat for the rule of law, failing to point out when Farage and reform cross over into racist campaigning against immigrants who have a legal right to remain - or even citizenship . This is a stupid strategy because it legitimizes the very people who are his main electoral rivals.
There is an alternative case that the left, and anyone who wants to see the rule of law extend beyond the next election, that as much pressure as possible needs to be put on the government and Starmer to change tack.
And then we have the various levys.
The policy of keeping energy prices high to promote reductions in consumption has been discussed and debated for quite a while.
https://www.rhnuttall.co.uk/blog/industrial-electricity-prices-by-country/
Neither is wind 'ours' - this is simply a barefaced lie:
As of the latest available data from 2024, the companies owning British wind farms are primarily based in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, Spain, China, Japan, and the United States, with significant state-owned or majority state-owned entities from these countries holding substantial stakes, particularly in offshore wind capacity.
AI Answer - dyor
These foreign interests invest in British wind capacity because it's a licence to print money. The Government can never stop adding to wind capacity or allow wind farms to fail because it is seen as a crucial measure of success. Therefore capital pours in, the same way it does to University accomodation, because the bottom line is that the taxpayer is on the hook for it.
That isn't a success.
https://x.com/Cobratate/status/1962053969544376807
Meanwhile large parts of the world are racing towards cheap, green energy abundance with solar.
Milliband might have been a decent radical reformer, had he an ounce of common sense. As it is, he's vying for worst minister in the cabinet.
It also doesn’t claim they are not leaving just that it’s a small fraction as millionaires now includes people with high value properties/large pension pots. A big difference between wealth creators and those who are portable and those who are not.
It looks like it’s recycled from an article from Richard Murphy’s site.
It most certainly is a success as is solar
And I type this whilst looking out over the hugely successful Gwynt y Mor windfarm started in 2015 under the conservatives