Flag update. After my earlier comprehensive report from yesterday.
Just a pair of Welsh Dragon flags adorning the M4 at Pontardulais today.
A pretty poor show Wales to be honest, particularly after the West Midlands had smashed flags out of the park yesterday.
Just had a 15 mille or so drive to the next town, via a large village. Drove through built-up areas. One flag, a Union Jack, somewhere that always flies one. If anything, that's less than usual.
There is a vanishingly small chance of an election in 2025 and 2026.
There is a very small chance of a 2027 vote, but I only really see that happening if Starmer has fallen on his sword and someone tries a Theresa May gambit.
2028 is probably value. A third of elections since 1979 were held in the fourth year of a parliament (though generally when the government thought they had a good chance of winning them).
2028/9 I would have thought.
But I thought that Sunak would hold on until the Autumn or even the Winter last year.
Callaghan was forced to go earlier than he planned in 1979 and look what happened then.
I thought Sunak would hold on to the autumn so he would be PM for 2 years - it's not like it could make the result worse.
First Leon is banned not for one of any number of outrageous declarations about stuff, but because of some kind of spam trap; and now Kamski, arguably the most boring contributor on PB (and it's a close fought thing) is banned for finally showing some vim and vigour, albeit it was crass and JEJUNE.
I ignored the itinerary which was keen to send to me to some stupid tourist cable car and then a naff sculpture park, and decided on a proper hike
I found a route with a suitably noomy name. The “ Heiligengeistklamm” - LITERALLY the Holy Ghost walk. Way down in south styria. I thought “that’s got to be good”
And it was good and pretty, up a little ravine in the forests, but it was also 30C and I got severely hot and bothered and I was about to give up. But then I saw a sign for a weinbar in the woods so I hiked there. But it was shut! Sleeping dogs and closed doors in the heat. Aaargh!
But then I saw a flag and I realised I was 50 meters from the Slovenian frontier. The old Iron Curtain. But what was once barbed wire and death and watchtowers was turned into millponds and pretty flower meadows asleep in the woods and then I found a “self service honesty bar” where you could just take cold fruit wine spritzer from a fridge in the woods and I sat there in the sun on a log and I gazed at borderless Europe, at peace where there was war. And, verily, it was lovely
And if only any of us had any confidence that you will return one iota the wiser from the experience, we might join you in celebration. Sadly, most of us know that you embarked on the trip already a narrow-minded bigoted poisonous ignorant twat, and will return home precisely the same.
Making submissions to the Court of Appeal on behalf of Yvette Cooper, the Home Secretary, lawyers said the “relevant public interests in play are not equal” and are “fundamentally different in nature”.
The Home Office and owners of the Bell Hotel in Essex are appealing against last week’s temporary injunction granted to Epping Forest district council, ordering its closure as asylum accommodation.
In documents submitted to the court, Home Office lawyers said: “Epping represents the public interest that subsists in planning control in its local area.
The [Home Secretary] is taken for these purposes as representing the public interest of the entirety of the United Kingdom and discharging obligations conferred on her alone by Parliament.
“Epping’s interest in enforcement of planning control is important and in the public interest.
“However, the [Home Secretary’s] statutory duty is a manifestation of the United Kingdom’s obligations under Article 3 ECHR [European Convention on Human Rights], which establishes non derogable fundamental human rights.”
They’re talking about local planning v national interest . Which is blatantly obvious for those that can read and don’t have an agenda.
How do other european governments, under the same ECHR obligations, manage to house asylum seekers in tents rather than hotels?
In Ireland they basically ignore it when they are told that they're breaching the asylum seekers human rights.
Not sure that ignoring the law is something we want governments to be in the habit of doing.
"International law" is more guidelines than actual rules.
Implement domestic law, yes. International ones should be subservient to Parliamentary laws.
Government should change not break domestic laws, but international ones aren't subject to Parliamentary amendments which is why they should never be conflated with actual, domestic laws.
I suspect that this is national law, not that it makes any difference. All law is a human-created thing. Societies are better and more peaceful when they follow laws that have popular consent.
Laws that have popular consent are laws passed by Parliament and subject to Parliamentary amendment under the principle that no Parliament can bind its successors.
Aka democracy.
International law is not that, which is why it should be subservient to actual laws, and should never be mistaken for a real law. Which is how almost the entire world operates besides us.
I ignored the itinerary which was keen to send to me to some stupid tourist cable car and then a naff sculpture park, and decided on a proper hike
I found a route with a suitably noomy name. The “ Heiligengeistklamm” - LITERALLY the Holy Ghost walk. Way down in south styria. I thought “that’s got to be good”
And it was good and pretty, up a little ravine in the forests, but it was also 30C and I got severely hot and bothered and I was about to give up. But then I saw a sign for a weinbar in the woods so I hiked there. But it was shut! Sleeping dogs and closed doors in the heat. Aaargh!
But then I saw a flag and I realised I was 50 meters from the Slovenian frontier. The old Iron Curtain. But what was once barbed wire and death and watchtowers was turned into millponds and pretty flower meadows asleep in the woods and then I found a “self service honesty bar” where you could just take cold fruit wine spritzer from a fridge in the woods and I sat there in the sun on a log and I gazed at borderless Europe, at peace where there was war. And, verily, it was lovely
And if only any of us had any confidence that you will return one iota the wiser from the experience, we might join you in celebration. Sadly, most of us know that you embarked on the trip already a narrow-minded bigoted poisonous ignorant twat, and will return home precisely the same.
Changes from 20th August [Find Out Now, 27th August, N=2,538]
Suboptimal for Lab and Con
With Ladbrokes suggesting an election this year they must be shitting themselves.
Reform have been on a plateau for a while now, 4 months I reckon. Despite the attempts of you and your mates in the right wing press to to drum up a violent summer, the Reform vote share has remained static since April. I think the immigration lemon has been squeezed dry. You could easily cruise at this level for 3-4 years and win the next election or something could happen that shifts the focus from immigration. In which case you need to start looking at what else your party has to offer.
Making submissions to the Court of Appeal on behalf of Yvette Cooper, the Home Secretary, lawyers said the “relevant public interests in play are not equal” and are “fundamentally different in nature”.
The Home Office and owners of the Bell Hotel in Essex are appealing against last week’s temporary injunction granted to Epping Forest district council, ordering its closure as asylum accommodation.
In documents submitted to the court, Home Office lawyers said: “Epping represents the public interest that subsists in planning control in its local area.
The [Home Secretary] is taken for these purposes as representing the public interest of the entirety of the United Kingdom and discharging obligations conferred on her alone by Parliament.
“Epping’s interest in enforcement of planning control is important and in the public interest.
“However, the [Home Secretary’s] statutory duty is a manifestation of the United Kingdom’s obligations under Article 3 ECHR [European Convention on Human Rights], which establishes non derogable fundamental human rights.”
They’re talking about local planning v national interest . Which is blatantly obvious for those that can read and don’t have an agenda.
How do other european governments, under the same ECHR obligations, manage to house asylum seekers in tents rather than hotels?
In Ireland they basically ignore it when they are told that they're breaching the asylum seekers human rights.
Not sure that ignoring the law is something we want governments to be in the habit of doing.
"International law" is more guidelines than actual rules.
Implement domestic law, yes. International ones should be subservient to Parliamentary laws.
Government should change not break domestic laws, but international ones aren't subject to Parliamentary amendments which is why they should never be conflated with actual, domestic laws.
I suspect that this is national law, not that it makes any difference. All law is a human-created thing. Societies are better and more peaceful when they follow laws that have popular consent.
Laws that have popular consent are laws passed by Parliament and subject to Parliamentary amendment under the principle that no Parliament can bind its successors.
Aka democracy.
International law is not that, which is why it should be subservient to actual laws, and should never be mistaken for a real law. Which is how almost the entire world operates besides us.
I don't know that I would go that far, but at times it feels like there is a kind of fetishisation of what international law or human rights are as if they are inviolable, universal forces of automatic applicability, which as positive as many of them might be I think elevates their status a tad much.
I ignored the itinerary which was keen to send to me to some stupid tourist cable car and then a naff sculpture park, and decided on a proper hike
I found a route with a suitably noomy name. The “ Heiligengeistklamm” - LITERALLY the Holy Ghost walk. Way down in south styria. I thought “that’s got to be good”
And it was good and pretty, up a little ravine in the forests, but it was also 30C and I got severely hot and bothered and I was about to give up. But then I saw a sign for a weinbar in the woods so I hiked there. But it was shut! Sleeping dogs and closed doors in the heat. Aaargh!
But then I saw a flag and I realised I was 50 meters from the Slovenian frontier. The old Iron Curtain. But what was once barbed wire and death and watchtowers was turned into millponds and pretty flower meadows asleep in the woods and then I found a “self service honesty bar” where you could just take cold fruit wine spritzer from a fridge in the woods and I sat there in the sun on a log and I gazed at borderless Europe, at peace where there was war. And, verily, it was lovely
And if only any of us had any confidence that you will return one iota the wiser from the experience, we might join you in celebration. Sadly, most of us know that you embarked on the trip already a narrow-minded bigoted poisonous ignorant twat, and will return home precisely the same.
I kind of hoped you would overcome your innate bitterness and join in the harmonious spirit of my comment, and so it is. Blessings to you, too
Changes from 20th August [Find Out Now, 27th August, N=2,538]
Suboptimal for Lab and Con
With Ladbrokes suggesting an election this year they must be shitting themselves.
Reform have been on a plateau for a while now, 4 months I reckon. Despite the attempts of you and your mates in the right wing press to to drum up a violent summer, the Reform vote share has remained static since April. I think the immigration lemon has been squeezed dry. You could easily cruise at this level for 3-4 years and win the next election or something could happen that shifts the focus from immigration. In which case you need to start looking at what else your party has to offer.
Reform are a one trick pony and have only Trumpist garbage to inflict on the country . They need immigration and the boats to remain top of the agenda .
It’s noticeable how they’ve moved the goalposts on legal migration . Realising that the numbers are likely to come down significantly they now want zero net migration which is unworkable and a fantasy but they’ll attempt to dupe the gullible.
Anyway, if we're talking about what I did in the holidays, I went last night for the third (and likely final) time to see Every Brilliant Thing at sohoplace. It has a rotating cast and while I would stick pins in my eyes before seeing some of them (eg Sue Perkins), each time I went I made sure Johnny Donahoe (co-writer) was performing. Well worth 85 minutes of your time if you are in or near London Town.
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
Making submissions to the Court of Appeal on behalf of Yvette Cooper, the Home Secretary, lawyers said the “relevant public interests in play are not equal” and are “fundamentally different in nature”.
The Home Office and owners of the Bell Hotel in Essex are appealing against last week’s temporary injunction granted to Epping Forest district council, ordering its closure as asylum accommodation.
In documents submitted to the court, Home Office lawyers said: “Epping represents the public interest that subsists in planning control in its local area.
The [Home Secretary] is taken for these purposes as representing the public interest of the entirety of the United Kingdom and discharging obligations conferred on her alone by Parliament.
“Epping’s interest in enforcement of planning control is important and in the public interest.
“However, the [Home Secretary’s] statutory duty is a manifestation of the United Kingdom’s obligations under Article 3 ECHR [European Convention on Human Rights], which establishes non derogable fundamental human rights.”
They’re talking about local planning v national interest . Which is blatantly obvious for those that can read and don’t have an agenda.
How do other european governments, under the same ECHR obligations, manage to house asylum seekers in tents rather than hotels?
In Ireland they basically ignore it when they are told that they're breaching the asylum seekers human rights.
Not sure that ignoring the law is something we want governments to be in the habit of doing.
"International law" is more guidelines than actual rules.
Implement domestic law, yes. International ones should be subservient to Parliamentary laws.
Government should change not break domestic laws, but international ones aren't subject to Parliamentary amendments which is why they should never be conflated with actual, domestic laws.
I suspect that this is national law, not that it makes any difference. All law is a human-created thing. Societies are better and more peaceful when they follow laws that have popular consent.
Laws that have popular consent are laws passed by Parliament and subject to Parliamentary amendment under the principle that no Parliament can bind its successors.
Aka democracy.
International law is not that, which is why it should be subservient to actual laws, and should never be mistaken for a real law. Which is how almost the entire world operates besides us.
I don't know that I would go that far, but at times it feels like there is a kind of fetishisation of what international law or human rights are as if they are inviolable, universal forces of automatic applicability, which as positive as many of them might be I think elevates their status a tad much.
The branding is genius though. Makes it almost impossible to oppose them
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
Making submissions to the Court of Appeal on behalf of Yvette Cooper, the Home Secretary, lawyers said the “relevant public interests in play are not equal” and are “fundamentally different in nature”.
The Home Office and owners of the Bell Hotel in Essex are appealing against last week’s temporary injunction granted to Epping Forest district council, ordering its closure as asylum accommodation.
In documents submitted to the court, Home Office lawyers said: “Epping represents the public interest that subsists in planning control in its local area.
The [Home Secretary] is taken for these purposes as representing the public interest of the entirety of the United Kingdom and discharging obligations conferred on her alone by Parliament.
“Epping’s interest in enforcement of planning control is important and in the public interest.
“However, the [Home Secretary’s] statutory duty is a manifestation of the United Kingdom’s obligations under Article 3 ECHR [European Convention on Human Rights], which establishes non derogable fundamental human rights.”
They’re talking about local planning v national interest . Which is blatantly obvious for those that can read and don’t have an agenda.
How do other european governments, under the same ECHR obligations, manage to house asylum seekers in tents rather than hotels?
Amazing to think the British people mostly have no idea we are on the cusp of one of the worst financial crises in our history. The media, majority left leaning, will cover for its cretinous Labour mates unto the crack of Doom. Predictions: this is the last Labour government.
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
Amazing to think the British people mostly have no idea we are on the cusp of one of the worst financial crises in our history. The media, majority left leaning, will cover for its cretinous Labour mates unto the crack of Doom. Predictions: this is the last Labour government.
Planet Normal, as Alison Pearson's podcast is named.
But left to our own devices, we all think our circle is the norm and everything else is an aberration. One of the downsides of choose-your-own media is that we get less counter evidence than in previous decades.
Anyway, if we're talking about what I did in the holidays, I went last night for the third (and likely final) time to see Every Brilliant Thing at sohoplace. It has a rotating cast and while I would stick pins in my eyes before seeing some of them (eg Sue Perkins), each time I went I made sure Johnny Donahoe (co-writer) was performing. Well worth 85 minutes of your time if you are in or near London Town.
Your commitment to London theatre is impressive. I live in london and I haven’t been in a decade
This is my bad. And it’s certainly not a boast. I’ve just never enjoyed theatre - not sure why
Amazing to think the British people mostly have no idea we are on the cusp of one of the worst financial crises in our history. The media, majority left leaning, will cover for its cretinous Labour mates unto the crack of Doom. Predictions: this is the last Labour government.
Planet Normal, as Alison Pearson's podcast is named.
But left to our own devices, we all think our circle is the norm and everything else is an aberration. One of the downsides of choose-your-own media is that we get less counter evidence than in previous decades.
Plus PB is no help because we all agree with each other on everything.
Amazing to think the British people mostly have no idea we are on the cusp of one of the worst financial crises in our history. The media, majority left leaning, will cover for its cretinous Labour mates unto the crack of Doom. Predictions: this is the last Labour government.
I ignored the itinerary which was keen to send to me to some stupid tourist cable car and then a naff sculpture park, and decided on a proper hike
I found a route with a suitably noomy name. The “ Heiligengeistklamm” - LITERALLY the Holy Ghost walk. Way down in south styria. I thought “that’s got to be good”
And it was good and pretty, up a little ravine in the forests, but it was also 30C and I got severely hot and bothered and I was about to give up. But then I saw a sign for a weinbar in the woods so I hiked there. But it was shut! Sleeping dogs and closed doors in the heat. Aaargh!
But then I saw a flag and I realised I was 50 meters from the Slovenian frontier. The old Iron Curtain. But what was once barbed wire and death and watchtowers was turned into millponds and pretty flower meadows asleep in the woods and then I found a “self service honesty bar” where you could just take cold fruit wine spritzer from a fridge in the woods and I sat there in the sun on a log and I gazed at borderless Europe, at peace where there was war. And, verily, it was lovely
And if only any of us had any confidence that you will return one iota the wiser from the experience, we might join you in celebration. Sadly, most of us know that you embarked on the trip already a narrow-minded bigoted poisonous ignorant twat, and will return home precisely the same.
This seems a disproportionately - actually, insanely - angry response to someone being happy about being on holiday.
Making submissions to the Court of Appeal on behalf of Yvette Cooper, the Home Secretary, lawyers said the “relevant public interests in play are not equal” and are “fundamentally different in nature”.
The Home Office and owners of the Bell Hotel in Essex are appealing against last week’s temporary injunction granted to Epping Forest district council, ordering its closure as asylum accommodation.
In documents submitted to the court, Home Office lawyers said: “Epping represents the public interest that subsists in planning control in its local area.
The [Home Secretary] is taken for these purposes as representing the public interest of the entirety of the United Kingdom and discharging obligations conferred on her alone by Parliament.
“Epping’s interest in enforcement of planning control is important and in the public interest.
“However, the [Home Secretary’s] statutory duty is a manifestation of the United Kingdom’s obligations under Article 3 ECHR [European Convention on Human Rights], which establishes non derogable fundamental human rights.”
They’re talking about local planning v national interest . Which is blatantly obvious for those that can read and don’t have an agenda.
How do other european governments, under the same ECHR obligations, manage to house asylum seekers in tents rather than hotels?
In Ireland they basically ignore it when they are told that they're breaching the asylum seekers human rights.
Not sure that ignoring the law is something we want governments to be in the habit of doing.
"International law" is more guidelines than actual rules.
Implement domestic law, yes. International ones should be subservient to Parliamentary laws.
Government should change not break domestic laws, but international ones aren't subject to Parliamentary amendments which is why they should never be conflated with actual, domestic laws.
You been saying, for years, that international laws are guidelines rather than rules. But it's not really true. Even in the UK. Just because it was a phrase used in Pirates of the Caribbean doesn't make it gospel.
Yes, the UK adopts a dualist approach that means that domestic statute takes precedence over international treaties. 100% agree. However, treaties have always been persuasive (albeit not binding) authority, like decisions from courts at the same level are.
For example, if an Act of Parliament is ambiguous, courts must presume that Parliament intended it to comply with the UK’s international obligations (e.g. Salomon v Commissioners of Customs and Excise [1967]) and in R v Lyons [2002] the HoL said treaties should influence judicial reasoning, albeit they stressed they cannot override clear domestic law.
But other countries don't adopt a dualist approach.
In the monist system, like South Africa and France, international law and domestic law form a single legal order, you can't distinguish between the two. Even in some dualist systems, like your beloved Australia, ratification of a treaty creates a “legitimate expectation” that decision-makers will act in accordance with it, unless there is clear contrary policy (Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Teoh (1995)).
So, to say international laws are just "guidelines" is not true. It's a massive oversimplification. They're far more than that, even in dualist systems.
Amazing to think the British people mostly have no idea we are on the cusp of one of the worst financial crises in our history. The media, majority left leaning, will cover for its cretinous Labour mates unto the crack of Doom. Predictions: this is the last Labour government.
Planet Normal, as Alison Pearson's podcast is named.
But left to our own devices, we all think our circle is the norm and everything else is an aberration. One of the downsides of choose-your-own media is that we get less counter evidence than in previous decades.
Plus PB is no help because we all agree with each other on everything.
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
Anyway, if we're talking about what I did in the holidays, I went last night for the third (and likely final) time to see Every Brilliant Thing at sohoplace. It has a rotating cast and while I would stick pins in my eyes before seeing some of them (eg Sue Perkins), each time I went I made sure Johnny Donahoe (co-writer) was performing. Well worth 85 minutes of your time if you are in or near London Town.
Your commitment to London theatre is impressive. I live in london and I haven’t been in a decade
This is my bad. And it’s certainly not a boast. I’ve just never enjoyed theatre - not sure why
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
They have always been the paper of choice for retired colonels in Tunbridge Wells, but used to try to stick at least some facts in.
To add my consensual and calming voice to the debate, I agree that Heath sounds a tiny bit histrionic here. Not for the first time
Thing is he’s a very smart guy. He’s also not a liar. I don’t believe he’s making this up - he thinks this is the case
But I’ve read that piece twice now and each time I get to the bit where he says “and now the government collapses and calls an election” I don’t see the logical progression
In the end Labour MPs WOULD back massive cuts and tax rises if they were enforced by the IMF (or the markets) because the alternative would be a suicidal election handing power to Farage
So it’s not going to happen, even if we have a fiscal crisis of enormous proportions
To add to the fraternal, collegiate and welcoming mood on PB may I recommend that anyone who posts posts from "bsky.app..." is banned for being a self-serving, bien pensant, smug bastard.
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
Anyway, if we're talking about what I did in the holidays, I went last night for the third (and likely final) time to see Every Brilliant Thing at sohoplace. It has a rotating cast and while I would stick pins in my eyes before seeing some of them (eg Sue Perkins), each time I went I made sure Johnny Donahoe (co-writer) was performing. Well worth 85 minutes of your time if you are in or near London Town.
Your commitment to London theatre is impressive. I live in london and I haven’t been in a decade
This is my bad. And it’s certainly not a boast. I’ve just never enjoyed theatre - not sure why
Well I can't say that the trend to shorter no interval performances hasn't helped. My heart does sink at the prospect of "Running time: 2hrs 40 minutes including a 20 minute interval"...
There's some fantastic stuff around. Although if it's not your thing it's not your thing. I avoid the big name (and $$$) productions and use an app (what else) to find last minute what they call "seat filler" tickets at around £5-15 a pop. No expectations, see what's on that evening, and go.
And I would say that 93% of productions are absolutely well worth the effort of going as one of the performances, writing (you, a wordsmith), and content will be worth the ticket price and more. And there are gems everywhere.
Go to see EBT with Johnny Donahoe - there are still a few more performances on. Or something nearer you.
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
God it is fecking gorgeous here. Even the German language sounds lovely in these environs
I saw someone recenty claim that actually the German language sounds just peachy and we only dislike it through cultural associations. This is clearly bollocks. I chose German rather than French at school and culturally favour the Germanic over the Romance, but the German language sounds staccato and monotone and aggressive. But maybe the Austrian accent is different. Or maybe you are just in a good mood. Anyway, I'm very keen to go to Austria next summer. I want to swim in an Alpine lake.
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
They have always been the paper of choice for retired colonels in Tunbridge Wells, but used to try to stick at least some facts in.
To add my consensual and calming voice to the debate, I agree that Heath sounds a tiny bit histrionic here. Not for the first time
Thing is he’s a very smart guy. He’s also not a liar. I don’t believe he’s making this up - he thinks this is the case
But I’ve read that piece twice now and each time I get to the bit where he says “and now the government collapses and calls an election” I don’t see the logical progression
In the end Labour MPs WOULD back massive cuts and tax rises if they were enforced by the IMF (or the markets) because the alternative would be a suicidal election handing power to Farage
So it’s not going to happen, even if we have a fiscal crisis of enormous proportions
I suspect that Heath wants it to be true, and he knows that lots of his readers want it to be true.
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
They have always been the paper of choice for retired colonels in Tunbridge Wells, but used to try to stick at least some facts in.
To add my consensual and calming voice to the debate, I agree that Heath sounds a tiny bit histrionic here. Not for the first time
Thing is he’s a very smart guy. He’s also not a liar. I don’t believe he’s making this up - he thinks this is the case
But I’ve read that piece twice now and each time I get to the bit where he says “and now the government collapses and calls an election” I don’t see the logical progression
In the end Labour MPs WOULD back massive cuts and tax rises if they were enforced by the IMF (or the markets) because the alternative would be a suicidal election handing power to Farage
So it’s not going to happen, even if we have a fiscal crisis of enormous proportions
Some Labour MPs are going slightly off message, such as Jonathan Hinder, MP for Pendle and Clitheroe.
To add to the fraternal, collegiate and welcoming mood on PB may I recommend that anyone who posts posts from "bsky.app..." is banned for being a self-serving, bien pensant, smug bastard.
Making submissions to the Court of Appeal on behalf of Yvette Cooper, the Home Secretary, lawyers said the “relevant public interests in play are not equal” and are “fundamentally different in nature”.
The Home Office and owners of the Bell Hotel in Essex are appealing against last week’s temporary injunction granted to Epping Forest district council, ordering its closure as asylum accommodation.
In documents submitted to the court, Home Office lawyers said: “Epping represents the public interest that subsists in planning control in its local area.
The [Home Secretary] is taken for these purposes as representing the public interest of the entirety of the United Kingdom and discharging obligations conferred on her alone by Parliament.
“Epping’s interest in enforcement of planning control is important and in the public interest.
“However, the [Home Secretary’s] statutory duty is a manifestation of the United Kingdom’s obligations under Article 3 ECHR [European Convention on Human Rights], which establishes non derogable fundamental human rights.”
They’re talking about local planning v national interest . Which is blatantly obvious for those that can read and don’t have an agenda.
How do other european governments, under the same ECHR obligations, manage to house asylum seekers in tents rather than hotels?
In Ireland they basically ignore it when they are told that they're breaching the asylum seekers human rights.
Not sure that ignoring the law is something we want governments to be in the habit of doing.
"International law" is more guidelines than actual rules.
Implement domestic law, yes. International ones should be subservient to Parliamentary laws.
Government should change not break domestic laws, but international ones aren't subject to Parliamentary amendments which is why they should never be conflated with actual, domestic laws.
You been saying, for years, that international laws are guidelines rather than rules. But it's not really true. Even in the UK. Just because it was a phrase used in Pirates of the Caribbean doesn't make it gospel.
Yes, the UK adopts a dualist approach that means that domestic statute takes precedence over international treaties. 100% agree. However, treaties have always been persuasive (albeit not binding) authority, like decisions from courts at the same level are.
For example, if an Act of Parliament is ambiguous, courts must presume that Parliament intended it to comply with the UK’s international obligations (e.g. Salomon v Commissioners of Customs and Excise [1967]) and in R v Lyons [2002] the HoL said treaties should influence judicial reasoning, albeit they stressed they cannot override clear domestic law.
But other countries don't adopt a dualist approach.
In the monist system, like South Africa and France, international law and domestic law form a single legal order, you can't distinguish between the two. Even in some dualist systems, like your beloved Australia, ratification of a treaty creates a “legitimate expectation” that decision-makers will act in accordance with it, unless there is clear contrary policy (Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Teoh (1995)).
So, to say international laws are just "guidelines" is not true. It's a massive oversimplification. They're far more than that, even in dualist systems.
Besides, national laws don't prevent things happening, they just create a framework of consequences if you break them.
Same is true of international law. The only question is how you judge the balance of risk and advantage.
Whatever the rights and wrongs, this all feels truly terrible for the government
Win or lose it’s a disaster
Do you think it will be a bigger vote changer than the Afghan leak story, because you said the same then, despite the polling contradicting you.
Or will this be even bigger than Chagos?
This is unfortunately timed for the government. This case opened today - literally
“Man denies raping girl, 12, in Nuneaton in case that prompted anti-asylum protests
“A man has pleaded not guilty to raping a 12-year-old girl in Nuneaton while another man has denied strangling her, in a case that prompted anti-asylum protests in the town.
“Ahmad Mulakhil and Mohammad Kabir, both 23, are accused of abducting and assaulting the child in the Warwickshire town on 22 July. The defendants denied nine charges between them at a plea hearing at Warwick crown court on Thursday.
Mulakhil, of no fixed abode, denied abducting a child, three counts of rape of a child under 13, and two counts of sexual assault of a child under 13. Kabir, also of no fixed abode, pleaded not guilty to attempting to take a child, aiding and abetting rape of a child under 13, and intentional strangulation of the girl.”
"Literally, today". As if time itself needs a fucking emphatic footnote. "Literally” has been under assault for ages, inflated from a perfectly useful word denoting factuality, into a kind of punctuation mark of hysteria, which TBF is why you're well suited to it. But when paired with “today,” it collapses entirely. What does it even fucking mean? Did you think that “today” on its own might somehow lack heft? That an event occurred on this very calendar date, as opposed to “metaphorically, today”? That the happening was not allegorical, or scheduled for the Day of Judgement, but in fact Thursday 28 August 2025? The redundancy almost becomes performance art. Which would, I admit, be a step up from the self-parody you normally peddle.
You should talk to the French about their tendency for "au jour d'aujourd'hui".
To add to the fraternal, collegiate and welcoming mood on PB may I recommend that anyone who posts posts from "bsky.app..." is banned for being a self-serving, bien pensant, smug bastard.
Making submissions to the Court of Appeal on behalf of Yvette Cooper, the Home Secretary, lawyers said the “relevant public interests in play are not equal” and are “fundamentally different in nature”.
The Home Office and owners of the Bell Hotel in Essex are appealing against last week’s temporary injunction granted to Epping Forest district council, ordering its closure as asylum accommodation.
In documents submitted to the court, Home Office lawyers said: “Epping represents the public interest that subsists in planning control in its local area.
The [Home Secretary] is taken for these purposes as representing the public interest of the entirety of the United Kingdom and discharging obligations conferred on her alone by Parliament.
“Epping’s interest in enforcement of planning control is important and in the public interest.
“However, the [Home Secretary’s] statutory duty is a manifestation of the United Kingdom’s obligations under Article 3 ECHR [European Convention on Human Rights], which establishes non derogable fundamental human rights.”
They’re talking about local planning v national interest . Which is blatantly obvious for those that can read and don’t have an agenda.
How do other european governments, under the same ECHR obligations, manage to house asylum seekers in tents rather than hotels?
In Ireland they basically ignore it when they are told that they're breaching the asylum seekers human rights.
Not sure that ignoring the law is something we want governments to be in the habit of doing.
"International law" is more guidelines than actual rules.
Implement domestic law, yes. International ones should be subservient to Parliamentary laws.
Government should change not break domestic laws, but international ones aren't subject to Parliamentary amendments which is why they should never be conflated with actual, domestic laws.
You been saying, for years, that international laws are guidelines rather than rules. But it's not really true. Even in the UK. Just because it was a phrase used in Pirates of the Caribbean doesn't make it gospel.
Yes, the UK adopts a dualist approach that means that domestic statute takes precedence over international treaties. 100% agree. However, treaties have always been persuasive (albeit not binding) authority, like decisions from courts at the same level are.
For example, if an Act of Parliament is ambiguous, courts must presume that Parliament intended it to comply with the UK’s international obligations (e.g. Salomon v Commissioners of Customs and Excise [1967]) and in R v Lyons [2002] the HoL said treaties should influence judicial reasoning, albeit they stressed they cannot override clear domestic law.
But other countries don't adopt a dualist approach.
In the monist system, like South Africa and France, international law and domestic law form a single legal order, you can't distinguish between the two. Even in some dualist systems, like your beloved Australia, ratification of a treaty creates a “legitimate expectation” that decision-makers will act in accordance with it, unless there is clear contrary policy (Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Teoh (1995)).
So, to say international laws are just "guidelines" is not true. It's a massive oversimplification. They're far more than that, even in dualist systems.
Though I suppose that attempt to put a firm seal on the matter won't be sufficient for some of us.
God it is fecking gorgeous here. Even the German language sounds lovely in these environs
I saw someone recenty claim that actually the German language sounds just peachy and we only dislike it through cultural associations. This is clearly bollocks. I chose German rather than French at school and culturally favour the Germanic over the Romance, but the German language sounds staccato and monotone and aggressive. But maybe the Austrian accent is different. Or maybe you are just in a good mood. Anyway, I'm very keen to go to Austria next summer. I want to swim in an Alpine lake.
"It is only when you hear someone speaking Finnish , do you realise that German and English are just dialects of Norwegian" - Norwegian "joke".
God it is fecking gorgeous here. Even the German language sounds lovely in these environs
Our son and family have been on an European road trip to Venice and returning through Austria the family got into a conversation with a local
Apparently our grandson [11] started to converse in German, and whilst his elder sister [13] knows some German from school, our grandson held an adult conversation all in German
Apparently he had self taught himself with the aid of a language app, and a little bit from his sister, but even his parents were surprised
He is very clever generally, and has completely set his mind on becoming a pilot
Anyway, if we're talking about what I did in the holidays, I went last night for the third (and likely final) time to see Every Brilliant Thing at sohoplace. It has a rotating cast and while I would stick pins in my eyes before seeing some of them (eg Sue Perkins), each time I went I made sure Johnny Donahoe (co-writer) was performing. Well worth 85 minutes of your time if you are in or near London Town.
Your commitment to London theatre is impressive. I live in london and I haven’t been in a decade
This is my bad. And it’s certainly not a boast. I’ve just never enjoyed theatre - not sure why
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
How would that force a government with a majority of 150 into an early election?
It didn't even force Truss into it.
It might force Starmer from office, but that is rather different (and in any case seems unlikely).
Don't know who Allister Heath is but he could do with studying basic political systems and processes.
Apparently all the Labour MPs would defect to Corbyn.
If all of them did, he becomes PM.
In the rather more likely event that 20 or so do, Starmer would have a majority of a mere 110, which would still be a larger majority than any PM in the last 20 years.
To add to the fraternal, collegiate and welcoming mood on PB may I recommend that anyone who posts posts from "bsky.app..." is banned for being a self-serving, bien pensant, smug bastard.
I believe TSE posted a link to bsky recently ?
Nice knowing you, Toppers.
To be fair to Topping it wasn't the first time I've been called a smug bastard, and let's be honest, I am a smug bastard.
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
They have always been the paper of choice for retired colonels in Tunbridge Wells, but used to try to stick at least some facts in.
To add my consensual and calming voice to the debate, I agree that Heath sounds a tiny bit histrionic here. Not for the first time
Thing is he’s a very smart guy. He’s also not a liar. I don’t believe he’s making this up - he thinks this is the case
But I’ve read that piece twice now and each time I get to the bit where he says “and now the government collapses and calls an election” I don’t see the logical progression
In the end Labour MPs WOULD back massive cuts and tax rises if they were enforced by the IMF (or the markets) because the alternative would be a suicidal election handing power to Farage
So it’s not going to happen, even if we have a fiscal crisis of enormous proportions
Heath is not the only one making this point about a fiscal crisis in the autumn leading to a Government collapse. Micheal Simmons (economics editor) makes the same point in the Spectator.
Anyway, if we're talking about what I did in the holidays, I went last night for the third (and likely final) time to see Every Brilliant Thing at sohoplace. It has a rotating cast and while I would stick pins in my eyes before seeing some of them (eg Sue Perkins), each time I went I made sure Johnny Donahoe (co-writer) was performing. Well worth 85 minutes of your time if you are in or near London Town.
Your commitment to London theatre is impressive. I live in london and I haven’t been in a decade
This is my bad. And it’s certainly not a boast. I’ve just never enjoyed theatre - not sure why
Well I can't say that the trend to shorter no interval performances hasn't helped. My heart does sink at the prospect of "Running time: 2hrs 40 minutes including a 20 minute interval"...
There's some fantastic stuff around. Although if it's not your thing it's not your thing. I avoid the big name (and $$$) productions and use an app (what else) to find last minute what they call "seat filler" tickets at around £5-15 a pop. No expectations, see what's on that evening, and go.
And I would say that 93% of productions are absolutely well worth the effort of going as one of the performances, writing (you, a wordsmith), and content will be worth the ticket price and more. And there are gems everywhere.
Go to see EBT with Johnny Donahoe - there are still a few more performances on. Or something nearer you.
I use the "Central Tickets" app.
Seen some good plays at Southwark and Park theatres, interesting to learn the central tickets app works, will persist with it. Was interested in seeing something last weekend but despite apps showing the theatre as half-empty couldn't find tickets for less than £40.
God it is fecking gorgeous here. Even the German language sounds lovely in these environs
I saw someone recenty claim that actually the German language sounds just peachy and we only dislike it through cultural associations. This is clearly bollocks. I chose German rather than French at school and culturally favour the Germanic over the Romance, but the German language sounds staccato and monotone and aggressive. But maybe the Austrian accent is different. Or maybe you are just in a good mood. Anyway, I'm very keen to go to Austria next summer. I want to swim in an Alpine lake.
We had to do two languages, plus Latin if you weren't doing Science. So it was French plus either German or Spanish. I chose German because it was more science-related. That was back in the mid 50's. I ended up able to speak and write German reasonably well, but nearly always when I've been with Germans, although it's been an ice-breaker, their English has been better than my German
A few years ago I met a former classmate who'd chosen Spanish. He'd had an amazing career in banking, travelling regularly to South America and doing business in several countries. His Spanish had been a godsend.
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
Heath is unhinged and someone needs to stage an intervention .
He may be, but even the French Finance Minister has warned France is facing an IMF bailout
France is a different matter as complete insanity has broken out both amongst the public helped along by the far left and far right who are peddling unicorns . It will end in tears .
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
How would that force a government with a majority of 150 into an early election?
It didn't even force Truss into it.
It might force Starmer from office, but that is rather different (and in any case seems unlikely).
Don't know who Allister Heath is but he could do with studying basic political systems and processes.
Apparently all the Labour MPs would defect to Corbyn.
To be fair, voting for IMF cuts would put any Labour MP on quite a few Traitor To The Movement lists. The temptation to wrap themselves in the Red Flag would be intense - it’s not like voting for such cuts would save their seats at the next election.
Making submissions to the Court of Appeal on behalf of Yvette Cooper, the Home Secretary, lawyers said the “relevant public interests in play are not equal” and are “fundamentally different in nature”.
The Home Office and owners of the Bell Hotel in Essex are appealing against last week’s temporary injunction granted to Epping Forest district council, ordering its closure as asylum accommodation.
In documents submitted to the court, Home Office lawyers said: “Epping represents the public interest that subsists in planning control in its local area.
The [Home Secretary] is taken for these purposes as representing the public interest of the entirety of the United Kingdom and discharging obligations conferred on her alone by Parliament.
“Epping’s interest in enforcement of planning control is important and in the public interest.
“However, the [Home Secretary’s] statutory duty is a manifestation of the United Kingdom’s obligations under Article 3 ECHR [European Convention on Human Rights], which establishes non derogable fundamental human rights.”
They’re talking about local planning v national interest . Which is blatantly obvious for those that can read and don’t have an agenda.
How do other european governments, under the same ECHR obligations, manage to house asylum seekers in tents rather than hotels?
In Ireland they basically ignore it when they are told that they're breaching the asylum seekers human rights.
Not sure that ignoring the law is something we want governments to be in the habit of doing.
"International law" is more guidelines than actual rules.
Implement domestic law, yes. International ones should be subservient to Parliamentary laws.
Government should change not break domestic laws, but international ones aren't subject to Parliamentary amendments which is why they should never be conflated with actual, domestic laws.
I suspect that this is national law, not that it makes any difference. All law is a human-created thing. Societies are better and more peaceful when they follow laws that have popular consent.
Laws that have popular consent are laws passed by Parliament and subject to Parliamentary amendment under the principle that no Parliament can bind its successors.
Aka democracy.
International law is not that, which is why it should be subservient to actual laws, and should never be mistaken for a real law. Which is how almost the entire world operates besides us.
I don't know that I would go that far, but at times it feels like there is a kind of fetishisation of what international law or human rights are as if they are inviolable, universal forces of automatic applicability, which as positive as many of them might be I think elevates their status a tad much.
International law is a complex and hotly debated topic. There is a lot of international law about relatively boring stuff that works enormously well. You want international relations to be boring; that's a good sign. Mail carriers delivering to each other, works well. The UN settling dispute over the exact maritime border instead of a war, fantastic.
International law about human rights may sometimes be fetishised in rhetoric, but is nearly always weak and constantly fighting to be heard. In practice, international humanitarian law is much more of an aspiration than a reality. Governments follow international humanitarian law, when they do, largely because their domestic electorates want them to. The idea that it's a threat to local democracy is one of those radical right talking points.
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
Heath is unhinged and someone needs to stage an intervention .
He may be, but even the French Finance Minister has warned France is facing an IMF bailout
France is a different matter as complete insanity has broken out both amongst the public helped along by the far left and far right who are peddling unicorns . It will end in tears .
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
Heath is unhinged and someone needs to stage an intervention .
He may be, but even the French Finance Minister has warned France is facing an IMF bailout
France is a different matter as complete insanity has broken out both amongst the public helped along by the far left and far right who are peddling unicorns . It will end in tears .
Much like UK then !!!!!!
I think the situation is more precarious in France.
A lot of people suggesting Reform and the immigration issue will have all melted away by the next GE are sounding an awful lot like those who suggested the Trump comeback was just noise and with his court cases he would have gone away by the 2024 US Presidential Election*. I don’t know what the future holds, but what I do know is that there’s a deep sense of disillusionment with politics as usual, that it’s going to take a helluva lot of things to go right for the government to shift.
*I think I was probably one of them at some point.
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
They have always been the paper of choice for retired colonels in Tunbridge Wells, but used to try to stick at least some facts in.
To add my consensual and calming voice to the debate, I agree that Heath sounds a tiny bit histrionic here. Not for the first time
Thing is he’s a very smart guy. He’s also not a liar. I don’t believe he’s making this up - he thinks this is the case
But I’ve read that piece twice now and each time I get to the bit where he says “and now the government collapses and calls an election” I don’t see the logical progression
In the end Labour MPs WOULD back massive cuts and tax rises if they were enforced by the IMF (or the markets) because the alternative would be a suicidal election handing power to Farage
So it’s not going to happen, even if we have a fiscal crisis of enormous proportions
Heath is not the only one making this point about a fiscal crisis in the autumn leading to a Government collapse. Micheal Simmons (economics editor) makes the same point in the Spectator.
I would be more inclined to believe it if it was in the FT or the Economist.
I ignored the itinerary which was keen to send to me to some stupid tourist cable car and then a naff sculpture park, and decided on a proper hike
I found a route with a suitably noomy name. The “ Heiligengeistklamm” - LITERALLY the Holy Ghost walk. Way down in south styria. I thought “that’s got to be good”
And it was good and pretty, up a little ravine in the forests, but it was also 30C and I got severely hot and bothered and I was about to give up. But then I saw a sign for a weinbar in the woods so I hiked there. But it was shut! Sleeping dogs and closed doors in the heat. Aaargh!
But then I saw a flag and I realised I was 50 meters from the Slovenian frontier. The old Iron Curtain. But what was once barbed wire and death and watchtowers was turned into millponds and pretty flower meadows asleep in the woods and then I found a “self service honesty bar” where you could just take cold fruit wine spritzer from a fridge in the woods and I sat there in the sun on a log and I gazed at borderless Europe, at peace where there was war. And, verily, it was lovely
And if only any of us had any confidence that you will return one iota the wiser from the experience, we might join you in celebration. Sadly, most of us know that you embarked on the trip already a narrow-minded bigoted poisonous ignorant twat, and will return home precisely the same.
This seems a disproportionately - actually, insanely - angry response to someone being happy about being on holiday.
Actually I’m here working and doing my job. I’m writing about south styria - and it is gorgeous
So that means I’m even happier!
Tho I do recommend it for a holiday. It’s a slightly neglected and luscious corner of Europe. Sadly not cheap - but nor is it mad like Switzerland
Graz is a stunning little city - with so few tourists!!! - and now I’ve discovered the countryside - once you get beyond the flat ugly industrial bit - is just as alluring
Anyway, if we're talking about what I did in the holidays, I went last night for the third (and likely final) time to see Every Brilliant Thing at sohoplace. It has a rotating cast and while I would stick pins in my eyes before seeing some of them (eg Sue Perkins), each time I went I made sure Johnny Donahoe (co-writer) was performing. Well worth 85 minutes of your time if you are in or near London Town.
Your commitment to London theatre is impressive. I live in london and I haven’t been in a decade
This is my bad. And it’s certainly not a boast. I’ve just never enjoyed theatre - not sure why
Well I can't say that the trend to shorter no interval performances hasn't helped. My heart does sink at the prospect of "Running time: 2hrs 40 minutes including a 20 minute interval"...
There's some fantastic stuff around. Although if it's not your thing it's not your thing. I avoid the big name (and $$$) productions and use an app (what else) to find last minute what they call "seat filler" tickets at around £5-15 a pop. No expectations, see what's on that evening, and go.
And I would say that 93% of productions are absolutely well worth the effort of going as one of the performances, writing (you, a wordsmith), and content will be worth the ticket price and more. And there are gems everywhere.
Go to see EBT with Johnny Donahoe - there are still a few more performances on. Or something nearer you.
I use the "Central Tickets" app.
Good advice. Thanks
I really enjoyed my stay-put summer in london. Caught up with a lot of friends and fam. And I realised again what an amazing city it is. So I’m determined to explore its cultural offerings afresh
God it is fecking gorgeous here. Even the German language sounds lovely in these environs
I saw someone recenty claim that actually the German language sounds just peachy and we only dislike it through cultural associations. This is clearly bollocks. I chose German rather than French at school and culturally favour the Germanic over the Romance, but the German language sounds staccato and monotone and aggressive. But maybe the Austrian accent is different. Or maybe you are just in a good mood. Anyway, I'm very keen to go to Austria next summer. I want to swim in an Alpine lake.
I went to Austria with two friends after leaving school. We went to Igls near Innsbruck. It was so hot my two friends suffered from heat stroke. I was able to explain in my fractured German that they were Krank. And I swam in the local lake which was almost as hot as the local bathwater.
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
They have always been the paper of choice for retired colonels in Tunbridge Wells, but used to try to stick at least some facts in.
To add my consensual and calming voice to the debate, I agree that Heath sounds a tiny bit histrionic here. Not for the first time
Thing is he’s a very smart guy. He’s also not a liar. I don’t believe he’s making this up - he thinks this is the case
But I’ve read that piece twice now and each time I get to the bit where he says “and now the government collapses and calls an election” I don’t see the logical progression
In the end Labour MPs WOULD back massive cuts and tax rises if they were enforced by the IMF (or the markets) because the alternative would be a suicidal election handing power to Farage
So it’s not going to happen, even if we have a fiscal crisis of enormous proportions
Heath is not the only one making this point about a fiscal crisis in the autumn leading to a Government collapse. Micheal Simmons (economics editor) makes the same point in the Spectator.
All this frothing at the mouth at the prospect of an IMF bailout does rather smack of wishful thinking. It’s a possibility, not an inevitability at this point in time, although obviously it would be much better if the possibility was a lot more remote than it actually is.
Speaking of which, I’m about to dive into the Odd Lots podcast interview with Liz Truss. Will report back on any gems.
Anyway, if we're talking about what I did in the holidays, I went last night for the third (and likely final) time to see Every Brilliant Thing at sohoplace. It has a rotating cast and while I would stick pins in my eyes before seeing some of them (eg Sue Perkins), each time I went I made sure Johnny Donahoe (co-writer) was performing. Well worth 85 minutes of your time if you are in or near London Town.
Your commitment to London theatre is impressive. I live in london and I haven’t been in a decade
This is my bad. And it’s certainly not a boast. I’ve just never enjoyed theatre - not sure why
Well I can't say that the trend to shorter no interval performances hasn't helped. My heart does sink at the prospect of "Running time: 2hrs 40 minutes including a 20 minute interval"...
There's some fantastic stuff around. Although if it's not your thing it's not your thing. I avoid the big name (and $$$) productions and use an app (what else) to find last minute what they call "seat filler" tickets at around £5-15 a pop. No expectations, see what's on that evening, and go.
And I would say that 93% of productions are absolutely well worth the effort of going as one of the performances, writing (you, a wordsmith), and content will be worth the ticket price and more. And there are gems everywhere.
Go to see EBT with Johnny Donahoe - there are still a few more performances on. Or something nearer you.
I use the "Central Tickets" app.
Seen some good plays at Southwark and Park theatres, interesting to learn the central tickets app works, will persist with it. Was interested in seeing something last weekend but despite apps showing the theatre as half-empty couldn't find tickets for less than £40.
Yep I'm not sure of the algo. Perhaps with it being summer/tourists in town there is less on there now (I've certainly found that). They also have waitlists which I have put myself on previously and tickets almost always come free.
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
Heath is unhinged and someone needs to stage an intervention .
He may be, but even the French Finance Minister has warned France is facing an IMF bailout
France is a different matter as complete insanity has broken out both amongst the public helped along by the far left and far right who are peddling unicorns . It will end in tears .
Much like UK then !!!!!!
I was in our global tax policy group today, talking through various domestic and international issues including fiscal positions.
The most notable thing is that almost all the major developed economies, with the exception of Germany and a couple of others, are in exactly the same position. They have debt to gdp at or above 100%, a large fiscal deficit and anaemic growth.
The UK’s debt to GDP is actually a little below the middle of the pack. The US (leaving aside Japan) is at the top and the biggest systemic risk. Our numbers really don’t scream IMF intervention.
However, where we’re an outlier in a bad way is the interest rates we’re paying on our debt, both directly (the gilt coupon) and indirectly (gilt yield). That’s down to market assumptions about inflation - higher than the Eurozone - and currency depreciation which mean investors demand a higher return for the same credit risk. So we pay more in interest than France despite having significantly less debt.
That’s what we need to focus on. Getting our debt servicing cost down.
The most noteworthy example on that front is Turkey. Relatively low debt to GDP ratio but because of its currency and inflation history a massive yield on sovereign debt meaning its actual debt servicing costs are above those of much more indebted European neighbours. Hard for them to escape this because they have decades of track record in high inflation and lira devaluation. Nigeria is an even more extreme example but that’s a very different economy.
Making submissions to the Court of Appeal on behalf of Yvette Cooper, the Home Secretary, lawyers said the “relevant public interests in play are not equal” and are “fundamentally different in nature”.
The Home Office and owners of the Bell Hotel in Essex are appealing against last week’s temporary injunction granted to Epping Forest district council, ordering its closure as asylum accommodation.
In documents submitted to the court, Home Office lawyers said: “Epping represents the public interest that subsists in planning control in its local area.
The [Home Secretary] is taken for these purposes as representing the public interest of the entirety of the United Kingdom and discharging obligations conferred on her alone by Parliament.
“Epping’s interest in enforcement of planning control is important and in the public interest.
“However, the [Home Secretary’s] statutory duty is a manifestation of the United Kingdom’s obligations under Article 3 ECHR [European Convention on Human Rights], which establishes non derogable fundamental human rights.”
They’re talking about local planning v national interest . Which is blatantly obvious for those that can read and don’t have an agenda.
How do other european governments, under the same ECHR obligations, manage to house asylum seekers in tents rather than hotels?
In Ireland they basically ignore it when they are told that they're breaching the asylum seekers human rights.
Not sure that ignoring the law is something we want governments to be in the habit of doing.
"International law" is more guidelines than actual rules.
Implement domestic law, yes. International ones should be subservient to Parliamentary laws.
Government should change not break domestic laws, but international ones aren't subject to Parliamentary amendments which is why they should never be conflated with actual, domestic laws.
I suspect that this is national law, not that it makes any difference. All law is a human-created thing. Societies are better and more peaceful when they follow laws that have popular consent.
Laws that have popular consent are laws passed by Parliament and subject to Parliamentary amendment under the principle that no Parliament can bind its successors.
Aka democracy.
International law is not that, which is why it should be subservient to actual laws, and should never be mistaken for a real law. Which is how almost the entire world operates besides us.
I don't know that I would go that far, but at times it feels like there is a kind of fetishisation of what international law or human rights are as if they are inviolable, universal forces of automatic applicability, which as positive as many of them might be I think elevates their status a tad much.
International law is a complex and hotly debated topic. There is a lot of international law about relatively boring stuff that works enormously well. You want international relations to be boring; that's a good sign. Mail carriers delivering to each other, works well. The UN settling dispute over the exact maritime border instead of a war, fantastic.
International law about human rights may sometimes be fetishised in rhetoric, but is nearly always weak and constantly fighting to be heard. In practice, international humanitarian law is much more of an aspiration than a reality. Governments follow international humanitarian law, when they do, largely because their domestic electorates want them to. The idea that it's a threat to local democracy is one of those radical right talking points.
The government is literally - today - using “international human rights law” to impose hotels full of asylum seekers on very very unhappy British communities, even as those communities have ample evidence of crime - including and up to rape and murder of children - stemming from those hotels full of asylum seekers
So the answer is to junk the international human rights laws. Unless you believe the asylum seekers come first
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
Heath is unhinged and someone needs to stage an intervention .
He may be, but even the French Finance Minister has warned France is facing an IMF bailout
France is a different matter as complete insanity has broken out both amongst the public helped along by the far left and far right who are peddling unicorns . It will end in tears .
Much like UK then !!!!!!
I was in our global tax policy group today, talking through various domestic and international issues including fiscal positions.
The most notable thing is that almost all the major developed economies, with the exception of Germany and a couple of others, are in almost exactly the same position. They have debt to gdp at or above 100% and a fiscal deficit and anaemic growth.
The UK’s debt to GDP is actually a little below the middle of the pack. The US (leaving aside Japan) is at the top and the biggest systemic risk. Our numbers really don’t scream IMF intervention.
However, where we’re an outlier in a bad way is the interest rates we’re paying on our debt, both directly (the gilt coupon) and indirectly (gilt yield). That’s down to market assumptions about inflation - higher than the Eurozone - and currency depreciation which mean investors demand a higher return for the same credit risk. So we pay more in interest than France despite having significantly less debt.
That’s what we need to focus on. Getting our debt servicing cost down.
The most noteworthy example on that front is Turkey. Relatively low debt to GDP ratio but because of its currency and inflation history a massive yield on sovereign debt meaning its actual debt servicing costs are above those of much more indebted European neighbours. Hard for them to escape this because they have decades of track record in high inflation and lira devaluation. Nigeria is an even more extreme example but that’s a very different economy.
I ignored the itinerary which was keen to send to me to some stupid tourist cable car and then a naff sculpture park, and decided on a proper hike
I found a route with a suitably noomy name. The “ Heiligengeistklamm” - LITERALLY the Holy Ghost walk. Way down in south styria. I thought “that’s got to be good”
And it was good and pretty, up a little ravine in the forests, but it was also 30C and I got severely hot and bothered and I was about to give up. But then I saw a sign for a weinbar in the woods so I hiked there. But it was shut! Sleeping dogs and closed doors in the heat. Aaargh!
But then I saw a flag and I realised I was 50 meters from the Slovenian frontier. The old Iron Curtain. But what was once barbed wire and death and watchtowers was turned into millponds and pretty flower meadows asleep in the woods and then I found a “self service honesty bar” where you could just take cold fruit wine spritzer from a fridge in the woods and I sat there in the sun on a log and I gazed at borderless Europe, at peace where there was war. And, verily, it was lovely
And if only any of us had any confidence that you will return one iota the wiser from the experience, we might join you in celebration. Sadly, most of us know that you embarked on the trip already a narrow-minded bigoted poisonous ignorant twat, and will return home precisely the same.
Why don't you try being happy for someone else on holiday, for a change.
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
They have always been the paper of choice for retired colonels in Tunbridge Wells, but used to try to stick at least some facts in.
To add my consensual and calming voice to the debate, I agree that Heath sounds a tiny bit histrionic here. Not for the first time
Thing is he’s a very smart guy. He’s also not a liar. I don’t believe he’s making this up - he thinks this is the case
But I’ve read that piece twice now and each time I get to the bit where he says “and now the government collapses and calls an election” I don’t see the logical progression
In the end Labour MPs WOULD back massive cuts and tax rises if they were enforced by the IMF (or the markets) because the alternative would be a suicidal election handing power to Farage
So it’s not going to happen, even if we have a fiscal crisis of enormous proportions
Heath is not the only one making this point about a fiscal crisis in the autumn leading to a Government collapse. Micheal Simmons (economics editor) makes the same point in the Spectator.
All this frothing at the mouth at the prospect of an IMF bailout does rather smack of wishful thinking. It’s a possibility, not an inevitability at this point in time, although obviously it would be much better if the possibility was a lot more remote than it actually is.
Speaking of which, I’m about to dive into the Odd Lots podcast interview with Liz Truss. Will report back on any gems.
Yeah, she’s opened with ”UK is in a Doom Loop” so i think we know where this is going.
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
They have always been the paper of choice for retired colonels in Tunbridge Wells, but used to try to stick at least some facts in.
To add my consensual and calming voice to the debate, I agree that Heath sounds a tiny bit histrionic here. Not for the first time
Thing is he’s a very smart guy. He’s also not a liar. I don’t believe he’s making this up - he thinks this is the case
But I’ve read that piece twice now and each time I get to the bit where he says “and now the government collapses and calls an election” I don’t see the logical progression
In the end Labour MPs WOULD back massive cuts and tax rises if they were enforced by the IMF (or the markets) because the alternative would be a suicidal election handing power to Farage
So it’s not going to happen, even if we have a fiscal crisis of enormous proportions
Heath is not the only one making this point about a fiscal crisis in the autumn leading to a Government collapse. Micheal Simmons (economics editor) makes the same point in the Spectator.
I would be more inclined to believe it if it was in the FT or the Economist.
A fair enough point, they are the same stable, albeit different owners.
You can see how it might pan out though:
The markets already dispise Rachel and her autumn budget pans. The government faces a debt crisis and either goes 'cap in hand' (as for some reason we always add) to the IMF and/or begins it's own round of spending cuts that make the WFA cuts look like nibbling.
Labour splinters with chunks of their 2024 cohort of newbie Nick P ex MP's defecting to Jezbollah. Starmer plays the government of national unity card, Kemi sees her only chance of government and 'patriotically'joins causing the Tories to split too.
The government of national unity falls out among themselves and Nigel and Jezza play havoc with the Government timetable. Throw in a few foreseeable unknowns, something happens to HM the King, another Southport etc etc and it could happen. Improbable, perhaps but not inconceivable.
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
They have always been the paper of choice for retired colonels in Tunbridge Wells, but used to try to stick at least some facts in.
To add my consensual and calming voice to the debate, I agree that Heath sounds a tiny bit histrionic here. Not for the first time
Thing is he’s a very smart guy. He’s also not a liar. I don’t believe he’s making this up - he thinks this is the case
But I’ve read that piece twice now and each time I get to the bit where he says “and now the government collapses and calls an election” I don’t see the logical progression
In the end Labour MPs WOULD back massive cuts and tax rises if they were enforced by the IMF (or the markets) because the alternative would be a suicidal election handing power to Farage
So it’s not going to happen, even if we have a fiscal crisis of enormous proportions
Heath is not the only one making this point about a fiscal crisis in the autumn leading to a Government collapse. Micheal Simmons (economics editor) makes the same point in the Spectator.
All this frothing at the mouth at the prospect of an IMF bailout does rather smack of wishful thinking. It’s a possibility, not an inevitability at this point in time, although obviously it would be much better if the possibility was a lot more remote than it actually is.
Speaking of which, I’m about to dive into the Odd Lots podcast interview with Liz Truss. Will report back on any gems.
IMF bailout is just another version of 70s nostalgia. The mechanisms for debt relief and debt management were very different back then, but because it happened once it’s embedded in the collective boomer memory.
It’s like standpipes in the streets. Because they had them in 1976, every time we get a severe drought now people start talking about standpipes.
I ignored the itinerary which was keen to send to me to some stupid tourist cable car and then a naff sculpture park, and decided on a proper hike
I found a route with a suitably noomy name. The “ Heiligengeistklamm” - LITERALLY the Holy Ghost walk. Way down in south styria. I thought “that’s got to be good”
And it was good and pretty, up a little ravine in the forests, but it was also 30C and I got severely hot and bothered and I was about to give up. But then I saw a sign for a weinbar in the woods so I hiked there. But it was shut! Sleeping dogs and closed doors in the heat. Aaargh!
But then I saw a flag and I realised I was 50 meters from the Slovenian frontier. The old Iron Curtain. But what was once barbed wire and death and watchtowers was turned into millponds and pretty flower meadows asleep in the woods and then I found a “self service honesty bar” where you could just take cold fruit wine spritzer from a fridge in the woods and I sat there in the sun on a log and I gazed at borderless Europe, at peace where there was war. And, verily, it was lovely
And if only any of us had any confidence that you will return one iota the wiser from the experience, we might join you in celebration. Sadly, most of us know that you embarked on the trip already a narrow-minded bigoted poisonous ignorant twat, and will return home precisely the same.
Why don't you try being happy for someone else on holiday for a change.
I think @Leon is an interesting member of this forum, maybe because my wife and I have travelled extensively worldwide, but he does have his views which he is entitled to and whilst I do not agree with him on his pro Reform stance, he does come under extraordinary amount of vitriol from those who do not agree with him
I ignored the itinerary which was keen to send to me to some stupid tourist cable car and then a naff sculpture park, and decided on a proper hike
I found a route with a suitably noomy name. The “ Heiligengeistklamm” - LITERALLY the Holy Ghost walk. Way down in south styria. I thought “that’s got to be good”
And it was good and pretty, up a little ravine in the forests, but it was also 30C and I got severely hot and bothered and I was about to give up. But then I saw a sign for a weinbar in the woods so I hiked there. But it was shut! Sleeping dogs and closed doors in the heat. Aaargh!
But then I saw a flag and I realised I was 50 meters from the Slovenian frontier. The old Iron Curtain. But what was once barbed wire and death and watchtowers was turned into millponds and pretty flower meadows asleep in the woods and then I found a “self service honesty bar” where you could just take cold fruit wine spritzer from a fridge in the woods and I sat there in the sun on a log and I gazed at borderless Europe, at peace where there was war. And, verily, it was lovely
And if only any of us had any confidence that you will return one iota the wiser from the experience, we might join you in celebration. Sadly, most of us know that you embarked on the trip already a narrow-minded bigoted poisonous ignorant twat, and will return home precisely the same.
Why don't you try being happy for someone else on holiday for a change.
I think @Leon is an interesting member of this forum, maybe because my wife and I have travelled extensively worldwide, but he does have his views which he is entitled to and whilst I do not agree with him on his pro Reform stance, he does come under extraordinary amount of vitriol from those who do not agree with him
Mind you, he dishes it out himself to be fair
@Leon reminds me of one of those people who provokes everyone in the pub, then gets upset when it kicks off.
Didn't the French Army adopt a similar flag in 1940?
(To save TSE the trouble.)
To be fair, we might have acted the same without the English Channel, but then if the English Channel didn't exist we probably would have had a stronger Army at the expense of the Navy, so who the hell knows what would have happened.
Anyway, if we're talking about what I did in the holidays, I went last night for the third (and likely final) time to see Every Brilliant Thing at sohoplace. It has a rotating cast and while I would stick pins in my eyes before seeing some of them (eg Sue Perkins), each time I went I made sure Johnny Donahoe (co-writer) was performing. Well worth 85 minutes of your time if you are in or near London Town.
Your commitment to London theatre is impressive. I live in london and I haven’t been in a decade
This is my bad. And it’s certainly not a boast. I’ve just never enjoyed theatre - not sure why
Prices have become slightly ridiculous over the last 10 years. I used to go a lot before that.
I see Lord Dannatt is in trouble again. All the unsuitable people who've been given peerages in the last few years, yet it's an ostensibly suitable one making all the running.
On topic, I think it's incredibly surprising that 2025 and 2026 are as short as 50/1 and 20/1 respectively (and indeed 2027 at 12/1).
I don't see the credible circumstances where Labour loses its huge majority in that period or faces a confidence issue that couldn't be resolved by a change of Labour leader rather than election, and there's simply no incentive to gamble that majority in the hope of a larger one, even if there was some kind of dramatic and rather implausible reversal in the polling in that time.
The obvious date would be May 2029 (slightly short of full term but a more normal date historically than July). 2028 might tempt if polling changed a lot (and it can - Labour would need to improve its game a heck of a lot, but three years really is a long time in politics).
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day Allister Heath" (£)
Heath is unhinged and someone needs to stage an intervention .
He may be, but even the French Finance Minister has warned France is facing an IMF bailout
France is a different matter as complete insanity has broken out both amongst the public helped along by the far left and far right who are peddling unicorns . It will end in tears .
Much like UK then !!!!!!
I was in our global tax policy group today, talking through various domestic and international issues including fiscal positions.
The most notable thing is that almost all the major developed economies, with the exception of Germany and a couple of others, are in exactly the same position. They have debt to gdp at or above 100%, a large fiscal deficit and anaemic growth.
The UK’s debt to GDP is actually a little below the middle of the pack. The US (leaving aside Japan) is at the top and the biggest systemic risk. Our numbers really don’t scream IMF intervention.
However, where we’re an outlier in a bad way is the interest rates we’re paying on our debt, both directly (the gilt coupon) and indirectly (gilt yield). That’s down to market assumptions about inflation - higher than the Eurozone - and currency depreciation which mean investors demand a higher return for the same credit risk. So we pay more in interest than France despite having significantly less debt.
That’s what we need to focus on. Getting our debt servicing cost down.
The most noteworthy example on that front is Turkey. Relatively low debt to GDP ratio but because of its currency and inflation history a massive yield on sovereign debt meaning its actual debt servicing costs are above those of much more indebted European neighbours. Hard for them to escape this because they have decades of track record in high inflation and lira devaluation. Nigeria is an even more extreme example but that’s a very different economy.
Which ultimately means cuts to state spending which the government has shown markets it is incapable of doing, hence a bigger moron premium being demanded by investors. The other difference for France is that because it's in the Eurozone there are internal mechanisms to silently transfer national debt liability to other EMU nations that were used in the height of the crisis and have been tested through all kinds of German and ECJ court cases and still stand. That implicit guarantee that the German and Dutch taxpayer will ultimately pick up the bill helps France to borrow at a lower rate than they would otherwise be able.
Our moron premium and potential IMF bailout is entirely down to government spending being too high and low productivity in the public sector causing the trend growth rate to fall from ~2% to ~1.5%, instead of reforming the state the government chose to give everyone bumper payrises and ask for no improvements in output. What's also hurting the government is the addiction to linkers, the UK government has been singularly irresponsible in selling RPI linked bonds for far, far too long because it gave them access to cheap funding from 2008-2020 and weaning the state off selling them means a higher premium is being asked by investors but at the same time the legacy of linkers means that our debt servicing costs for the past 3 years has exploded due to high inflation, causing further expected gilt supply.
The UK is a poorly received fiscal event away from full meltdown which is what is being priced in right now. The only way the state is going to be able to close the deficit is by raising tax which will further reduce the trend growth rate and then we're in a tax raising/growth downgrade spiral (really we're probably already in one) and this is also being priced in as there's no real chance that the UK will suddenly grow at 2.5-3% per year and the government gets a big boost in revenue from additional GDP.
So faced with a pretty big deficit that needs closing, no implicit EMU bailout mechanism, no ability to cut spending, already lowered trend growth, tax rates already in the range where it inhibits growth and inflation rising due to the state's own incompetent choices it's of little surprise that there's a pretty big moron premium being priced into gilts. Eventually the government is going to have to cut spending and rely on opposition votes to push it through because Labour MPs live in lala land but what price will the Tories extract to do it.
I ignored the itinerary which was keen to send to me to some stupid tourist cable car and then a naff sculpture park, and decided on a proper hike
I found a route with a suitably noomy name. The “ Heiligengeistklamm” - LITERALLY the Holy Ghost walk. Way down in south styria. I thought “that’s got to be good”
And it was good and pretty, up a little ravine in the forests, but it was also 30C and I got severely hot and bothered and I was about to give up. But then I saw a sign for a weinbar in the woods so I hiked there. But it was shut! Sleeping dogs and closed doors in the heat. Aaargh!
But then I saw a flag and I realised I was 50 meters from the Slovenian frontier. The old Iron Curtain. But what was once barbed wire and death and watchtowers was turned into millponds and pretty flower meadows asleep in the woods and then I found a “self service honesty bar” where you could just take cold fruit wine spritzer from a fridge in the woods and I sat there in the sun on a log and I gazed at borderless Europe, at peace where there was war. And, verily, it was lovely
And if only any of us had any confidence that you will return one iota the wiser from the experience, we might join you in celebration. Sadly, most of us know that you embarked on the trip already a narrow-minded bigoted poisonous ignorant twat, and will return home precisely the same.
Why don't you try being happy for someone else on holiday for a change.
I think @Leon is an interesting member of this forum, maybe because my wife and I have travelled extensively worldwide, but he does have his views which he is entitled to and whilst I do not agree with him on his pro Reform stance, he does come under extraordinary amount of vitriol from those who do not agree with him
Mind you, he dishes it out himself to be fair
@Leon reminds me of one of those people who provokes everyone in the pub, then gets upset when it kicks off.
Nah, he just a low IQ troll, plain and simple.
He likes to think himself a subversive controversalist, but is simply too dull to be one.
Anyway, if we're talking about what I did in the holidays, I went last night for the third (and likely final) time to see Every Brilliant Thing at sohoplace. It has a rotating cast and while I would stick pins in my eyes before seeing some of them (eg Sue Perkins), each time I went I made sure Johnny Donahoe (co-writer) was performing. Well worth 85 minutes of your time if you are in or near London Town.
Your commitment to London theatre is impressive. I live in london and I haven’t been in a decade
This is my bad. And it’s certainly not a boast. I’ve just never enjoyed theatre - not sure why
Prices have become slightly ridiculous over the last 10 years. I used to go a lot before that.
If you want to go to see Sarah Jessica Parker or some other fancy sleb and to be in seat D15 then maybe. Or if you want to see Hamilton (and why would you).
But for most productions you can be in the gods and get a great view of everything for around £20. I mean if you want to stand (to stave off boredom) you can go to see Anna Netrebko's Tosca for £15.
I ignored the itinerary which was keen to send to me to some stupid tourist cable car and then a naff sculpture park, and decided on a proper hike
I found a route with a suitably noomy name. The “ Heiligengeistklamm” - LITERALLY the Holy Ghost walk. Way down in south styria. I thought “that’s got to be good”
And it was good and pretty, up a little ravine in the forests, but it was also 30C and I got severely hot and bothered and I was about to give up. But then I saw a sign for a weinbar in the woods so I hiked there. But it was shut! Sleeping dogs and closed doors in the heat. Aaargh!
But then I saw a flag and I realised I was 50 meters from the Slovenian frontier. The old Iron Curtain. But what was once barbed wire and death and watchtowers was turned into millponds and pretty flower meadows asleep in the woods and then I found a “self service honesty bar” where you could just take cold fruit wine spritzer from a fridge in the woods and I sat there in the sun on a log and I gazed at borderless Europe, at peace where there was war. And, verily, it was lovely
And if only any of us had any confidence that you will return one iota the wiser from the experience, we might join you in celebration. Sadly, most of us know that you embarked on the trip already a narrow-minded bigoted poisonous ignorant twat, and will return home precisely the same.
Why don't you try being happy for someone else on holiday for a change.
I think @Leon is an interesting member of this forum, maybe because my wife and I have travelled extensively worldwide, but he does have his views which he is entitled to and whilst I do not agree with him on his pro Reform stance, he does come under extraordinary amount of vitriol from those who do not agree with him
Mind you, he dishes it out himself to be fair
@Leon reminds me of one of those people who provokes everyone in the pub, then gets upset when it kicks off.
Nah, he just a low IQ troll, plain and simple.
He likes to think himself a subversive controversalist, but is simply too dull to be one.
I ignored the itinerary which was keen to send to me to some stupid tourist cable car and then a naff sculpture park, and decided on a proper hike
I found a route with a suitably noomy name. The “ Heiligengeistklamm” - LITERALLY the Holy Ghost walk. Way down in south styria. I thought “that’s got to be good”
And it was good and pretty, up a little ravine in the forests, but it was also 30C and I got severely hot and bothered and I was about to give up. But then I saw a sign for a weinbar in the woods so I hiked there. But it was shut! Sleeping dogs and closed doors in the heat. Aaargh!
But then I saw a flag and I realised I was 50 meters from the Slovenian frontier. The old Iron Curtain. But what was once barbed wire and death and watchtowers was turned into millponds and pretty flower meadows asleep in the woods and then I found a “self service honesty bar” where you could just take cold fruit wine spritzer from a fridge in the woods and I sat there in the sun on a log and I gazed at borderless Europe, at peace where there was war. And, verily, it was lovely
And if only any of us had any confidence that you will return one iota the wiser from the experience, we might join you in celebration. Sadly, most of us know that you embarked on the trip already a narrow-minded bigoted poisonous ignorant twat, and will return home precisely the same.
Why don't you try being happy for someone else on holiday for a change.
I think @Leon is an interesting member of this forum, maybe because my wife and I have travelled extensively worldwide, but he does have his views which he is entitled to and whilst I do not agree with him on his pro Reform stance, he does come under extraordinary amount of vitriol from those who do not agree with him
Mind you, he dishes it out himself to be fair
@Leon reminds me of one of those people who provokes everyone in the pub, then gets upset when it kicks off.
Er, when have I EVER “complained about it kicking off”?
I just don’t do it. I never complain. Because I like a good debate and sometimes I like a proper ruck, and - while I may be many evil things - I am not a hypocrite
I dish it out and I’m happy to take it
If you can find a single example of me whining to the mods or asking plaintively for someone to be banned I will buy you a virtual pint of Styrian Riesling and drink it myself in one. So there
Changes from 20th August [Find Out Now, 27th August, N=2,538]
Suboptimal for Lab and Con
With Ladbrokes suggesting an election this year they must be shitting themselves.
Reform have been on a plateau for a while now, 4 months I reckon. Despite the attempts of you and your mates in the right wing press to to drum up a violent summer, the Reform vote share has remained static since April. I think the immigration lemon has been squeezed dry. You could easily cruise at this level for 3-4 years and win the next election or something could happen that shifts the focus from immigration. In which case you need to start looking at what else your party has to offer.
Reform are a one trick pony and have only Trumpist garbage to inflict on the country . They need immigration and the boats to remain top of the agenda .
It’s noticeable how they’ve moved the goalposts on legal migration . Realising that the numbers are likely to come down significantly they now want zero net migration which is unworkable and a fantasy but they’ll attempt to dupe the gullible.
Changes from 20th August [Find Out Now, 27th August, N=2,538]
Suboptimal for Lab and Con
With Ladbrokes suggesting an election this year they must be shitting themselves.
Reform have been on a plateau for a while now, 4 months I reckon. Despite the attempts of you and your mates in the right wing press to to drum up a violent summer, the Reform vote share has remained static since April. I think the immigration lemon has been squeezed dry. You could easily cruise at this level for 3-4 years and win the next election or something could happen that shifts the focus from immigration. In which case you need to start looking at what else your party has to offer.
Changes from 20th August [Find Out Now, 27th August, N=2,538]
Suboptimal for Lab and Con
With Ladbrokes suggesting an election this year they must be shitting themselves.
Reform have been on a plateau for a while now, 4 months I reckon. Despite the attempts of you and your mates in the right wing press to to drum up a violent summer, the Reform vote share has remained static since April. I think the immigration lemon has been squeezed dry. You could easily cruise at this level for 3-4 years and win the next election or something could happen that shifts the focus from immigration. In which case you need to start looking at what else your party has to offer.
Let’s all talk about Leon. There’s nothing he hates more.
lol. Quite. But check the thread. I didn’t start this!
Sometimes it even bores ME - and I’m a helpless narcissist
To move the subject on, I’ve just read the spectator economics editor’s take on the looming crash, and it is much more ominous and plausible than Allister Heath in the Telegraph
Changes from 20th August [Find Out Now, 27th August, N=2,538]
Suboptimal for Lab and Con
With Ladbrokes suggesting an election this year they must be shitting themselves.
Reform have been on a plateau for a while now, 4 months I reckon. Despite the attempts of you and your mates in the right wing press to to drum up a violent summer, the Reform vote share has remained static since April. I think the immigration lemon has been squeezed dry. You could easily cruise at this level for 3-4 years and win the next election or something could happen that shifts the focus from immigration. In which case you need to start looking at what else your party has to offer.
Reform are a one trick pony and have only Trumpist garbage to inflict on the country . They need immigration and the boats to remain top of the agenda .
It’s noticeable how they’ve moved the goalposts on legal migration . Realising that the numbers are likely to come down significantly they now want zero net migration which is unworkable and a fantasy but they’ll attempt to dupe the gullible.
Let’s all talk about Leon. There’s nothing he hates more.
lol. Quite. But check the thread. I didn’t start this!
Sometimes it even bores ME - and I’m a helpless narcissist
To move the subject on, I’ve just read the spectator economics editor’s take on the looming crash, and it is much more ominous and plausible than Allister Heath in the Telegraph
Let’s all talk about Leon. There’s nothing he hates more.
lol. Quite. But check the thread. I didn’t start this!
Sometimes it even bores ME - and I’m a helpless narcissist
To move the subject on, I’ve just read the spectator economics editor’s take on the looming crash, and it is much more ominous and plausible than Allister Heath in the Telegraph
Trumps tariffs , attacks on the Fed and now independent data collection aren’t helping the UK as US gilts have a knock on effect here , more so than in the Eurozone .
Comments
First Leon is banned not for one of any number of outrageous declarations about stuff, but because of some kind of spam trap; and now Kamski, arguably the most boring contributor on PB (and it's a close fought thing) is banned for finally showing some vim and vigour, albeit it was crass and JEJUNE.
Aka democracy.
International law is not that, which is why it should be subservient to actual laws, and should never be mistaken for a real law. Which is how almost the entire world operates besides us.
It’s noticeable how they’ve moved the goalposts on legal migration . Realising that the numbers are likely to come down significantly they now want zero net migration which is unworkable and a fantasy but they’ll attempt to dupe the gullible.
"Panic in the markets will force Starmer into an early election
We are careering towards a fully-fledged debt crisis. Labour’s chances of survival are narrowing by the day
Allister Heath" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/08/27/market-meltdown-will-force-starmer-into-an-early-election/
In what planet is uk media landscape "majority left leaning"?
Allison Pearson
@AllisonPearson
Amazing to think the British people mostly have no idea we are on the cusp of one of the worst financial crises in our history.
The media, majority left leaning, will cover for its cretinous Labour mates unto the crack of Doom.
Predictions: this is the last Labour government.
They really think the IMF are flying in over the weekend to wind UK plc up.
They have always been the paper of choice for retired colonels in Tunbridge Wells, but used to try to stick at least some facts in.
But left to our own devices, we all think our circle is the norm and everything else is an aberration. One of the downsides of choose-your-own media is that we get less counter evidence than in previous decades.
This is my bad. And it’s certainly not a boast. I’ve just never enjoyed theatre - not sure why
@SecDuffyNASA
In 2027, we WILL return American astronauts to the Moon.
We won yesterday's space race. We'll win today's space race against China, and we'll always win tomorrow's space race.
https://x.com/SecDuffyNASA/status/1961051155682795610
Yes, the UK adopts a dualist approach that means that domestic statute takes precedence over international treaties. 100% agree. However, treaties have always been persuasive (albeit not binding) authority, like decisions from courts at the same level are.
For example, if an Act of Parliament is ambiguous, courts must presume that Parliament intended it to comply with the UK’s international obligations (e.g. Salomon v Commissioners of Customs and Excise [1967]) and in R v Lyons [2002] the HoL said treaties should influence judicial reasoning, albeit they stressed they cannot override clear domestic law.
But other countries don't adopt a dualist approach.
In the monist system, like South Africa and France, international law and domestic law form a single legal order, you can't distinguish between the two. Even in some dualist systems, like your beloved Australia, ratification of a treaty creates a “legitimate expectation” that decision-makers will act in accordance with it, unless there is clear contrary policy (Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Teoh (1995)).
So, to say international laws are just "guidelines" is not true. It's a massive oversimplification. They're far more than that, even in dualist systems.
It didn't even force Truss into it.
It might force Starmer from office, but that is rather different (and in any case seems unlikely).
Don't know who Allister Heath is but he could do with studying basic political systems and processes.
Probably because of the retired colonels.
And could the systems be programmed for a Laika-style one way trip?
Thing is he’s a very smart guy. He’s also not a liar. I don’t believe he’s making this up - he thinks this is the case
But I’ve read that piece twice now and each time I get to the bit where he says “and now the government collapses and calls an election” I don’t see the logical progression
In the end Labour MPs WOULD back massive cuts and tax rises if they were enforced by the IMF (or the markets) because the alternative would be a suicidal election handing power to Farage
So it’s not going to happen, even if we have a fiscal crisis of enormous proportions
And of course the retired colonels market is very small now that the entire UK army is basically a division.
There's some fantastic stuff around. Although if it's not your thing it's not your thing. I avoid the big name (and $$$) productions and use an app (what else) to find last minute what they call "seat filler" tickets at around £5-15 a pop. No expectations, see what's on that evening, and go.
And I would say that 93% of productions are absolutely well worth the effort of going as one of the performances, writing (you, a wordsmith), and content will be worth the ticket price and more. And there are gems everywhere.
Go to see EBT with Johnny Donahoe - there are still a few more performances on. Or something nearer you.
I use the "Central Tickets" app.
Anyway, I'm very keen to go to Austria next summer. I want to swim in an Alpine lake.
And these days, that's enough.
https://x.com/Jonathan_Hinder/status/1960756159867973876
"Jonathan Hinder MP
@Jonathan_Hinder
The boats ARE going to be stopped.
Because that’s what the vast, vast majority of people want. And it’s the right thing to do.
The question is not if, it is by whom? And, exactly when?
Are we, Labour, going to do what is right?
We can do it. We should do it."
Same is true of international law. The only question is how you judge the balance of risk and advantage.
Apparently our grandson [11] started to converse in German, and whilst his elder sister [13] knows some German from school, our grandson held an adult conversation all in German
Apparently he had self taught himself with the aid of a language app, and a little bit from his sister, but even his parents were surprised
He is very clever generally, and has completely set his mind on becoming a pilot
https://uk.camelbak.com/product/classic-light-4l-hydration-pack-with-70oz-reservoir/38603.html?dwvar_38603_color=D22&cgid=backpacks&_gl=1*d9teyz*_up*MQ..*_gs*MQ..*_ga*MTI0MDYwOTgxLjE3NTYzOTk4MDE.*_ga_6HK64BCSEQ*czE3NTYzOTk4MDAkbzEkZzEkdDE3NTYzOTk4MDMkajU3JGwwJGgxMjQ5OTkwMzcz&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIzKGohfutjwMV8i7UAR3yRC6lEAAYASAAEgJV3PD_BwE
In the rather more likely event that 20 or so do, Starmer would have a majority of a mere 110, which would still be a larger majority than any PM in the last 20 years.
Was interested in seeing something last weekend but despite apps showing the theatre as half-empty couldn't find tickets for less than £40.
A few years ago I met a former classmate who'd chosen Spanish. He'd had an amazing career in banking, travelling regularly to South America and doing business in several countries. His Spanish had been a godsend.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_French_flags
International law about human rights may sometimes be fetishised in rhetoric, but is nearly always weak and constantly fighting to be heard. In practice, international humanitarian law is much more of an aspiration than a reality. Governments follow international humanitarian law, when they do, largely because their domestic electorates want them to. The idea that it's a threat to local democracy is one of those radical right talking points.
*I think I was probably one of them at some point.
So that means I’m even happier!
Tho I do recommend it for a holiday. It’s a slightly neglected and luscious corner of Europe. Sadly not cheap - but nor is it mad like Switzerland
Graz is a stunning little city - with so few tourists!!! - and now I’ve discovered the countryside - once you get beyond the flat ugly industrial bit - is just as alluring
I really enjoyed my stay-put summer in london. Caught up with a lot of friends and fam. And I realised again what an amazing city it is. So I’m determined to explore its cultural offerings afresh
I shall investigate theatre!
https://www.countryside-alliance.org/features/tim-bonner-not-a-single-farmer-plans-to-vote-labour-poll-reveals-0-support
(To save TSE the trouble.)
Speaking of which, I’m about to dive into the Odd Lots podcast interview with Liz Truss. Will report back on any gems.
The most notable thing is that almost all the major developed economies, with the exception of Germany and a couple of others, are in exactly the same position. They have debt to gdp at or above 100%, a large fiscal deficit and anaemic growth.
The UK’s debt to GDP is actually a little below the middle of the pack. The US (leaving aside Japan) is at the top and the biggest systemic risk. Our numbers really don’t scream IMF intervention.
However, where we’re an outlier in a bad way is the interest rates we’re paying on our debt, both directly (the gilt coupon) and indirectly (gilt yield). That’s down to market assumptions about inflation - higher than the Eurozone - and currency depreciation which mean investors demand a higher return for the same credit risk. So we pay more in interest than France despite having significantly less debt.
That’s what we need to focus on. Getting our debt servicing cost down.
The most noteworthy example on that front is Turkey. Relatively low debt to GDP ratio but because of its currency and inflation history a massive yield on sovereign debt meaning its actual debt servicing costs are above those of much more indebted European neighbours. Hard for them to escape this because they have decades of track record in high inflation and lira devaluation. Nigeria is an even more extreme example but that’s a very different economy.
So the answer is to junk the international human rights laws. Unless you believe the asylum seekers come first
If so, good luck at the next election
You can see how it might pan out though:
The markets already dispise Rachel and her autumn budget pans. The government faces a debt crisis and either goes 'cap in hand' (as for some reason we always add) to the IMF and/or begins it's own round of spending cuts that make the WFA cuts look like nibbling.
Labour splinters with chunks of their 2024 cohort of newbie Nick P ex MP's defecting to Jezbollah. Starmer plays the government of national unity card, Kemi sees her only chance of government and 'patriotically'joins causing the Tories to split too.
The government of national unity falls out among themselves and Nigel and Jezza play havoc with the Government timetable. Throw in a few foreseeable unknowns, something happens to HM the King, another Southport etc etc and it could happen. Improbable, perhaps but not inconceivable.
https://andrewspreviews.substack.com/p/previewing-the-broxtowe-and-camden
It’s like standpipes in the streets. Because they had them in 1976, every time we get a severe drought now people start talking about standpipes.
Or the winter of discontent.
Powercuts.
Race riots. Mullets.
Oh.
Mind you, he dishes it out himself to be fair
All the unsuitable people who've been given peerages in the last few years, yet it's an ostensibly suitable one making all the running.
I don't see the credible circumstances where Labour loses its huge majority in that period or faces a confidence issue that couldn't be resolved by a change of Labour leader rather than election, and there's simply no incentive to gamble that majority in the hope of a larger one, even if there was some kind of dramatic and rather implausible reversal in the polling in that time.
The obvious date would be May 2029 (slightly short of full term but a more normal date historically than July). 2028 might tempt if polling changed a lot (and it can - Labour would need to improve its game a heck of a lot, but three years really is a long time in politics).
Our moron premium and potential IMF bailout is entirely down to government spending being too high and low productivity in the public sector causing the trend growth rate to fall from ~2% to ~1.5%, instead of reforming the state the government chose to give everyone bumper payrises and ask for no improvements in output. What's also hurting the government is the addiction to linkers, the UK government has been singularly irresponsible in selling RPI linked bonds for far, far too long because it gave them access to cheap funding from 2008-2020 and weaning the state off selling them means a higher premium is being asked by investors but at the same time the legacy of linkers means that our debt servicing costs for the past 3 years has exploded due to high inflation, causing further expected gilt supply.
The UK is a poorly received fiscal event away from full meltdown which is what is being priced in right now. The only way the state is going to be able to close the deficit is by raising tax which will further reduce the trend growth rate and then we're in a tax raising/growth downgrade spiral (really we're probably already in one) and this is also being priced in as there's no real chance that the UK will suddenly grow at 2.5-3% per year and the government gets a big boost in revenue from additional GDP.
So faced with a pretty big deficit that needs closing, no implicit EMU bailout mechanism, no ability to cut spending, already lowered trend growth, tax rates already in the range where it inhibits growth and inflation rising due to the state's own incompetent choices it's of little surprise that there's a pretty big moron premium being priced into gilts. Eventually the government is going to have to cut spending and rely on opposition votes to push it through because Labour MPs live in lala land but what price will the Tories extract to do it.
He likes to think himself a subversive controversalist, but is simply too dull to be one.
But for most productions you can be in the gods and get a great view of everything for around £20. I mean if you want to stand (to stave off boredom) you can go to see Anna Netrebko's Tosca for £15.
I just don’t do it. I never complain. Because I like a good debate and sometimes I like a proper ruck, and - while I may be many evil things - I am not a hypocrite
I dish it out and I’m happy to take it
If you can find a single example of me whining to the mods or asking plaintively for someone to be banned I will buy you a virtual pint of Styrian Riesling and drink it myself in one. So there
Sometimes it even bores ME - and I’m a helpless narcissist
To move the subject on, I’ve just read the spectator economics editor’s take on the looming crash, and it is much more ominous and plausible than Allister Heath in the Telegraph
OK, then. Vegan Love Burger. £6.79, a little pricey, but worth it.