politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : January 29th 2015
Comments
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You are the one that accused Socrates of a religious and racist rant.audreyanne said:
Thanks for that. You're a charming chappie, aren't you?nigel4england said:One for the appalling audreyanne:
http://news.sky.com/story/1416946/rotherham-victim-says-abusers-untouchable
You shouldn't equate not wishing to see pb.com hijacked day after day about this topic, with disinterest in, or complicity towards, the topic itself.
Actually, why am I even bothering?
Night.0 -
The firebrand from PC has.Richard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately even Ed M is not stupid enough to fall into that trap.TGOHF said:Red comrade Hain going big love for the new communist regime in Athens on QT.
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Turnout in St Albans 37.5% relatively high for a January by election0
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Wrexham is probably UKIP's best shot in Wales. They should be able to come second IMO.0
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Have you read atulh on Labour Uncut, he makes the point how the frothing lefties go to bits over these 'collaborators' challenging the party line and yet there is total silence when the 15 rabid lefty current MPs just this week wrote calling for a change in a host of their own policies....TheScreamingEagles said:
Labour supporters attacking their own.bigjohnowls said:To borrow a phrase from Boris.
Two complete wan**rs
twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/560422310944178176/photo/1
Just what I want to see three months before the election.
What makes it even funnier, it is on Labour's favoured turf, the NHS,
Keep up the good work.0 -
If you look back you can see endless 'policy' speeches going way back to Blair in 2005Ishmael_X said:
Yes, if it's in an area where you never had or felt the need for having a policy at all until three weeks after Ukip announced one.Stereotomy said:
So "we will never try to out-Ukip Ukip" means "we will never have any area of policy agreement with Ukip"?Ishmael_X said:
Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”compouter2 said:The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.
Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."
Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".
That's hypocrisy.
(“For those planning to stay longer, we will restrict the right of settlement to skilled workers like doctors, engineers, nurses or teachers and will introduce English language tests for those hoping to settle permanently.”)
and finishing with Brown in is now notorious 2007 speech to the TUC
(“Let me add for those who come to Britain to do skilled work we will first require you to learn English, a requirement we are prepared to extend to lower skilled workers as well.”)
which talk about immigrants learning English.
I am happy to criticise them for simply being socialists, but you can criticise them for the language they are couched in or that nothing actually happened but they certainly talked about it.0 -
I did.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Have you read atulh on Labour Uncut, he makes the point how the frothing lefties go to bits over these 'collaborators' challenging the party line and yet there is total silence when the 15 rabid lefty current MPs just this week wrote calling for a change in a host of their own policies....TheScreamingEagles said:
Labour supporters attacking their own.bigjohnowls said:To borrow a phrase from Boris.
Two complete wan**rs
twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/560422310944178176/photo/1
Just what I want to see three months before the election.
What makes it even funnier, it is on Labour's favoured turf, the NHS,
Keep up the good work.
Labour supporters should follow my tempered measured response when dealing with UKIP collaborators, pig dogs and EU and Gay obsessed Loons within the Tory Party
Edit: Did you hear, Nick Clegg admitted he was an Arsenal fan0 -
That's 13 years of Edukachun under a Laboùr government for you.Pulpstar said:
Eh ?Ishmael_X said:
Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”compouter2 said:The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.
Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."
Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".
That's hypocrisy.
We have public sector frontline staff that can't currently speak English ?!0 -
I just found out tonight about the Dutroux affair in Belgium, where supposedly more than a dozen senior politicians were connected to a paedophile ring:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/1999/apr/21/stephenbates
http://articles.latimes.com/1998/jan/03/news/mn-4579/2
Does this explain the lack of action in the UK? Is something similar going on here?0 -
It is not as simple as that. The NHS has to think wider and balance the short term interest with the wider public health and long term interest.Richard_Nabavi said:
However, Mr Le Grande said the preferred provider policy was "daft".Scott_P said:@BBCAllegra: Fresh worries about Labour's NHS policy - this time from one of UK's most respected surgeons + former Lab minister http://t.co/IiOBMNRjds
"It's protectionist, it's going to protect the inefficient. It's going to protect the incompetence, it's going to protect the low quality service," he said.
Well, quite. Only the most ideologically obsessed, or those conflicted because they are themselves part of the vested interests being thus protected, could possibly disagree with that.
So if a locality outsources all its knee and hip surgery to a private ISTC, the waiting list will come down, and the individuals will probably benefit (though some ISTCs have not worked too well, google Shepton Mallet scandal or Birkdale) but there will be no training of Medical Students, Junior Doctors or Theatre Nurses. It will also mean that the local NHS unit may not be viable in offering a fracture service as without the bread and butter work it is impossible to maintain the staffing and expertise required to run the out of hours. You think GP out of hours is a mess, wait until your local A and E closes because the fracture unit is no longer viable.0 -
Since whatever is announced is objected to she is facing some difficulty there. Do we now seriously expect anything before the Election?OldKingCole said:
If Theresa May were to get her finger out and get on with the Inquiry she'd have some reason to grumble.MarkHopkins said:
Survivors of child sex abuse have received death threats after their personal details and confidential communications with an abuse inquiry were published online.
Home Secretary Theresa May has written to Mr Vaz describing her "dismay" at the Committee's publishing of the documents.
http://news.sky.com/story/1417450/death-threats-after-files-published-online
!!0 -
Crazy to expect people to learn English if there are enough people to speak their own language to here anyway... Why would you?Flightpath said:
If you look back you can see endless 'policy' speeches going way back to Blair in 2005Ishmael_X said:
Yes, if it's in an area where you never had or felt the need for having a policy at all until three weeks after Ukip announced one.Stereotomy said:
So "we will never try to out-Ukip Ukip" means "we will never have any area of policy agreement with Ukip"?Ishmael_X said:
Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”compouter2 said:The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.
Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."
Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".
That's hypocrisy.
(“For those planning to stay longer, we will restrict the right of settlement to skilled workers like doctors, engineers, nurses or teachers and will introduce English language tests for those hoping to settle permanently.”)
and finishing with Brown in is now notorious 2007 speech to the TUC
(“Let me add for those who come to Britain to do skilled work we will first require you to learn English, a requirement we are prepared to extend to lower skilled workers as well.”)
which talk about immigrants learning English.
I am happy to criticise them for simply being socialists, but you can criticise them for the language they are couched in or that nothing actually happened but they certainly talked about it.
If I went to work in a non English speaking country w my family and there were large parts of cities where English people lived, I'd live in that part and speak English
Limit the numbers and a bigger % will speak good English
The politicians can talk about doing this or that but it won't work, they just haven't hit the guts to do the only thing that will0 -
If the suggestions from Lord Ashcroft are correct about the Scottish seats are correct then will it be time for someone to suggest that Jim Murpy's spell as Labour leader should be brought to a rapid close?0
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Dangermouse (@Dangermouse_UK)
29/01/2015 23:23
1,500 Cases Of FGM Seen In The Last Five Years At One Birmingham Hospital - Breitbart bit.ly/1uFaK3P via @BreitbartNews MAn Alive!0 -
If you went as a retired ex-pat then you might be happy not learning the local language - but it would be your problem.isam said:
Crazy to expect people to learn English if there are enough people to speak their own language to here anyway... Why would you?Flightpath said:
If you look back you can see endless 'policy' speeches going way back to Blair in 2005Ishmael_X said:
Yes, if it's in an area where you never had or felt the need for having a policy at all until three weeks after Ukip announced one.Stereotomy said:
So "we will never try to out-Ukip Ukip" means "we will never have any area of policy agreement with Ukip"?Ishmael_X said:
Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”compouter2 said:The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.
Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."
Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".
That's hypocrisy.
(“For those planning to stay longer, we will restrict the right of settlement to skilled workers like doctors, engineers, nurses or teachers and will introduce English language tests for those hoping to settle permanently.”)
and finishing with Brown in is now notorious 2007 speech to the TUC
(“Let me add for those who come to Britain to do skilled work we will first require you to learn English, a requirement we are prepared to extend to lower skilled workers as well.”)
which talk about immigrants learning English.
I am happy to criticise them for simply being socialists, but you can criticise them for the language they are couched in or that nothing actually happened but they certainly talked about it.
If I went to work in a non English speaking country w my family and there were large parts of cities where English people lived, I'd live in that part and speak English
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Do you seriously expect to go and, importantly, 'work' as well as live permanently somewhere and not learn the language. I have relatives who live abroad - have done for decades and they work and speak the language like natives.0 -
Socrates said:
I just found out tonight about the Dutroux affair in Belgium, where supposedly more than a dozen senior politicians were connected to a paedophile ring:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/1999/apr/21/stephenbates
http://articles.latimes.com/1998/jan/03/news/mn-4579/2
Does this explain the lack of action in the UK? Is something similar going on here?Socrates said:I just found out tonight about the Dutroux affair in Belgium, where supposedly more than a dozen senior politicians were connected to a paedophile ring:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/1999/apr/21/stephenbates
http://articles.latimes.com/1998/jan/03/news/mn-4579/2
Does this explain the lack of action in the UK? Is something similar going on here?
Not sure but I would tend to say yes, the Dutroux stuff has been in the public domain for some timeSocrates said:I just found out tonight about the Dutroux affair in Belgium, where supposedly more than a dozen senior politicians were connected to a paedophile ring:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/1999/apr/21/stephenbates
http://articles.latimes.com/1998/jan/03/news/mn-4579/2
Does this explain the lack of action in the UK? Is something similar going on here?0 -
Don't worry Harriet will sort it.isam said:Dangermouse (@Dangermouse_UK)
29/01/2015 23:23
1,500 Cases Of FGM Seen In The Last Five Years At One Birmingham Hospital - Breitbart bit.ly/1uFaK3P via @BreitbartNews MAn Alive!0 -
Good for themFlightpath said:
If you went as a retired ex-pat then you might be happy not learning the local language - but it would be your problem.isam said:
Crazy to expect people to learn English if there are enough people to speak their own language to here anyway... Why would you?Flightpath said:
If you look back you can see endless 'policy' speeches going way back to Blair in 2005Ishmael_X said:
Yes, if it's in an area where you never had or felt the need for having a policy at all until three weeks after Ukip announced one.Stereotomy said:
So "we will never try to out-Ukip Ukip" means "we will never have any area of policy agreement with Ukip"?Ishmael_X said:
Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”compouter2 said:The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.
Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."
Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".
That's hypocrisy.
(“For those planning to stay longer, we will restrict the right of settlement to skilled workers like doctors, engineers, nurses or teachers and will introduce English language tests for those hoping to settle permanently.”)
and finishing with Brown in is now notorious 2007 speech to the TUC
(“Let me add for those who come to Britain to do skilled work we will first require you to learn English, a requirement we are prepared to extend to lower skilled workers as well.”)
which talk about immigrants learning English.
I am happy to criticise them for simply being socialists, but you can criticise them for the language they are couched in or that nothing actually happened but they certainly talked about it.
If I went to work in a non English speaking country w my family and there were large parts of cities where English people lived, I'd live in that part and speak English
...
Do you seriously expect to go and, importantly, 'work' as well as live permanently somewhere and not learn the language. I have relatives who live abroad - have done for decades and they work and speak the language like natives.
Plenty don't though and the reason is there is no need when the community you live in all speak your native tongue anyway
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''wait until your local A and E closes because the fracture unit is no longer viable.''
Mr Fox - you do point to the limits of outsourcing, but you do use an extreme example. I'm not sure that is helpful. A hospital deals with cases until it reaches its capacity. The private company can deal with cases from several hospitals as they need it.
Off topic I have just seen Alan Johnson's 'moment of the week' on TV where he strangely seems to talk down the Green Party leader and talk up the UKIP leader.
Now why would he do that I wonder. I mean its not as if we could expect him (a sitting MP) to take the opportunity of being paid as a BBC commentator to make crude political advantage.0 -
37.5% is a pretty high turnout for any British council by election.0
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I think we might have different standards for internet journalists and people who want to run the country.Flightpath said:
Labour ought to be embarrassed.Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: Hear Labour were refusing all day to put anyone up on #Newsnight to talk about NHS. Have they managed to weaponise someone yet? Why so shy?
But its also amusing to read that the co editor of Guido Fawkes, went to Tonbridge School before reading politics at Edinburgh and has never had a 'proper job' in his still juvenile life. Remind me just what is the big hate for the the anti establishment figures that love Guido?
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The current tariff structure means that hospitals lose money on emergency work and make it on the elective work.Flightpath said:''wait until your local A and E closes because the fracture unit is no longer viable.''
Mr Fox - you do point to the limits of outsourcing, but you do use an extreme example. I'm not sure that is helpful. A hospital deals with cases until it reaches its capacity. The private company can deal with cases from several hospitals as they need it.
Off topic I have just seen Alan Johnson's 'moment of the week' on TV where he strangely seems to talk down the Green Party leader and talk up the UKIP leader.
Now why would he do that I wonder. I mean its not as if we could expect him (a sitting MP) to take the opportunity of being paid as a BBC commentator to make crude political advantage.
Trusts have to work to nationally set tariffs. It would be possible to adjust tariffs to reverse this, but it cannot be done quickly. Once a unit loses its staff, they are hard to replace - even recruiting abroad.
It is not some bizarre scare story of mine, just that a critical mass of services are required in order to keep an acute hospital viable. So in Nottingham, Circle healthcare got the contract for dermatology, so the staff voted with their feet by leaving, junior doctors had to train elsewhere (Leicester gained a couple) and the people of Nottingham lost an integrated dermatology service:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nhs-services-cut-in-nottingham-after-doctors-quit-rather-than-work-for-private-firm-9931763.html
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BUSH: “Hey, Hill. It’s Jeb.”
CLINTON: “Hey, Jeb. To what do I owe this pleasure?”
BUSH: “Well, it’s true — I’m thinking about running for president.”
CLINTON: “Well, Jeb, so am I.”
BUSH: “I just wanted to call and give you a heads-up in hopes we could work something out.”
CLINTON: “What do you mean, Jeb? It’s clearly my turn: Bush, Clinton, Bush. Now, Clinton.”
BUSH: “Well, Hillary, there hasn’t been a Republican White House without a Bush since 1977, and we’re ready to be back.”
CLINTON: “Let me shoot straight with you, Jeb, OK? Bill and I are dead broke and need a place to stay. 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is calling me home — I’ve still got the back door key. Being president offers a lot more job security than writing another memoir.”
BUSH: “Well, the Bushes have weathered attacks before. And READ MY LIPS, Hillary: We’re not backing down this time.”
CLINTON: “Well, you’re right — maybe we can work something out. We both agree on so many issues: bigger government, Common Core, and amnesty for illegal immigrants.”
BUSH: “Well, we’ve both got problems. You’ve got problems with the grass roots, and I’ve got all those damn conservatives. What say, we make a deal?”
[Call beeps in.]
BUSH: “Sorry, Hillary, but I have to go. Mitt keeps calling.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/rand-paul-secret-tape-114739.html#ixzz3QGBcdgH9
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I make it 0.4% on simple average - need the latest YG table for ELBOW.Sean_F said:A simple average puts the Conservatives 0.3% ahead, this week.
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What's the word on the street in St Albans ?0
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St. Albans Council seam to be taking their time.0
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BTW yesterday's YG (the 33 v 33 one) was actually Lab 33.3, Con 32.5
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I should have pointed out: as well as putting all services out to bid by "any qualified provider" the HSC bill removed the obligation of providers or even the Secretary of State for Health to provide comprehensive services. The NHS is not obligated to keep your A/E open!foxinsoxuk said:
The current tariff structure means that hospitals lose money on emergency work and make it on the elective work.Flightpath said:''wait until your local A and E closes because the fracture unit is no longer viable.''
Mr Fox - you do point to the limits of outsourcing, but you do use an extreme example. I'm not sure that is helpful. A hospital deals with cases until it reaches its capacity. The private company can deal with cases from several hospitals as they need it.
Off topic I have just seen Alan Johnson's 'moment of the week' on TV where he strangely seems to talk down the Green Party leader and talk up the UKIP leader.
Now why would he do that I wonder. I mean its not as if we could expect him (a sitting MP) to take the opportunity of being paid as a BBC commentator to make crude political advantage.
Trusts have to work to nationally set tariffs. It would be possible to adjust tariffs to reverse this, but it cannot be done quickly. Once a unit loses its staff, they are hard to replace - even recruiting abroad.
It is not some bizarre scare story of mine, just that a critical mass of services are required in order to keep an acute hospital viable. So in Nottingham, Circle healthcare got the contract for dermatology, so the staff voted with their feet by leaving, junior doctors had to train elsewhere (Leicester gained a couple) and the people of Nottingham lost an integrated dermatology service:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nhs-services-cut-in-nottingham-after-doctors-quit-rather-than-work-for-private-firm-9931763.html
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/14/emergency-departments-fighting-for-life-nhs-marketisation?CMP=share_btn_tw0 -
Broken, sleazy...Sunil_Prasannan said:BTW yesterday's YG (the 33 v 33 one) was actually Lab 33.3, Con 32.5
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Wasn't Circle the same provider that got the Hichingbrooke contract ?foxinsoxuk said:
I should have pointed out: as well as putting all services out to bid by "any qualified provider" the HSC bill removed the obligation of providers or even the Secretary of State for Health to provide comprehensive services. The NHS is not obligated to keep your A/E open!foxinsoxuk said:
The current tariff structure means that hospitals lose money on emergency work and make it on the elective work.Flightpath said:''wait until your local A and E closes because the fracture unit is no longer viable.''
Mr Fox - you do point to the limits of outsourcing, but you do use an extreme example. I'm not sure that is helpful. A hospital deals with cases until it reaches its capacity. The private company can deal with cases from several hospitals as they need it.
Off topic I have just seen Alan Johnson's 'moment of the week' on TV where he strangely seems to talk down the Green Party leader and talk up the UKIP leader.
Now why would he do that I wonder. I mean its not as if we could expect him (a sitting MP) to take the opportunity of being paid as a BBC commentator to make crude political advantage.
Trusts have to work to nationally set tariffs. It would be possible to adjust tariffs to reverse this, but it cannot be done quickly. Once a unit loses its staff, they are hard to replace - even recruiting abroad.
It is not some bizarre scare story of mine, just that a critical mass of services are required in order to keep an acute hospital viable. So in Nottingham, Circle healthcare got the contract for dermatology, so the staff voted with their feet by leaving, junior doctors had to train elsewhere (Leicester gained a couple) and the people of Nottingham lost an integrated dermatology service:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nhs-services-cut-in-nottingham-after-doctors-quit-rather-than-work-for-private-firm-9931763.html
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/14/emergency-departments-fighting-for-life-nhs-marketisation?CMP=share_btn_tw
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Britain elects, tweeting Tories hold both saint Albans seats, no figures given. Can't link as on my kindle which makes it a pain.0
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CON DOUBLE HOLD
Britain Elects @britainelects 32s33 seconds ago
Marshalswick South (St Albans) vote result:
CON: 667
CON: 647
LD: 495
LD: 488
GRN: 450
LAB: 406
LAB: 312
GRN: 166
UKIP: 148
UKIP: 1470 -
Interesting Green figures there0
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Yes. They run treatment centres too and a private hospital in Bath. I was invited to join them at startup but was not convinced by their business model.Pulpstar said:
Wasn't Circle the same provider that got the Hichingbrooke contract ?foxinsoxuk said:
I should have pointed out: as well as putting all services out to bid by "any qualified provider" the HSC bill removed the obligation of providers or even the Secretary of State for Health to provide comprehensive services. The NHS is not obligated to keep your A/E open!foxinsoxuk said:
The current tariff structure means that hospitals lose money on emergency work and make it on the elective work.Flightpath said:''wait until your local A and E closes because the fracture unit is no longer viable.''
Mr Fox - you do point to the limits of outsourcing, but you do use an extreme example. I'm not sure that is helpful. A hospital deals with cases until it reaches its capacity. The private company can deal with cases from several hospitals as they need it.
Off topic I have just seen Alan Johnson's 'moment of the week' on TV where he strangely seems to talk down the Green Party leader and talk up the UKIP leader.
Now why would he do that I wonder. I mean its not as if we could expect him (a sitting MP) to take the opportunity of being paid as a BBC commentator to make crude political advantage.
Trusts have to work to nationally set tariffs. It would be possible to adjust tariffs to reverse this, but it cannot be done quickly. Once a unit loses its staff, they are hard to replace - even recruiting abroad.
It is not some bizarre scare story of mine, just that a critical mass of services are required in order to keep an acute hospital viable. So in Nottingham, Circle healthcare got the contract for dermatology, so the staff voted with their feet by leaving, junior doctors had to train elsewhere (Leicester gained a couple) and the people of Nottingham lost an integrated dermatology service:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nhs-services-cut-in-nottingham-after-doctors-quit-rather-than-work-for-private-firm-9931763.html
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/14/emergency-departments-fighting-for-life-nhs-marketisation?CMP=share_btn_tw0 -
Helpfully everyone has put up two candidates - so I assume straight summation of the totals is OK...
3.7% Con -> LD Swing, Greens up 6.5% I make it.0 -
Although one of the Greens has LOST votes (On a smaller turnout) - so yes a good night for the Greens and slightly poor for the Tories here I think.0
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Not quite correct if you take average vote of the 2 candidatesPulpstar said:Helpfully everyone has put up two candidates - so I assume straight summation of the totals is OK...
3.7% Con -> LD Swing, Greens up 6.5% I make it.
Con 33.5% down 5.5%
LDem 25.0% up 6.0%
Lab 18.3% down 4.7%
Green 15.7% up 5.7%
UKIP 7.5% down 1.5%
Changes from May 20140 -
I think it's better to actually just use the higher polling candidate for each party.Pulpstar said:Helpfully everyone has put up two candidates - so I assume straight summation of the totals is OK...
3.7% Con -> LD Swing, Greens up 6.5% I make it.0 -
@MarkSenior Sure you don't have a Lib Dem and Labour number mixed up ?0
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Why , the calculation is easier but the result is distorted here where there is such a large discrepancy between the 2 Green candidates results . They were on the ballot paper as Green Party 1st and 2nd choice respectively . You could equally argue that it is better to take the lowest polling candidate for each partySunil_Prasannan said:
I think it's better to actually just use the higher polling candidate for each party.Pulpstar said:Helpfully everyone has put up two candidates - so I assume straight summation of the totals is OK...
3.7% Con -> LD Swing, Greens up 6.5% I make it.0 -
929 979
651 486
441 573
188 258
123 232
39.3 Con
23.4 LD
20.9 Lab
9.2 Green
7.3 UKIP
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The detail of last night's _ Wednesday - Yougov poll showed Con 32.5% - Lab 33.25%. Only rounding made them even.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm multi tasking, but I think this is the first time since Dec 2010 that YouGov have gone a week without a Lab lead.Scrapheap_as_was said:When was the last time a whole week of YouGovs went by with no Lab lead? OGH will know that one for sure.
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I just said thatjustin124 said:
The detail of last night's _ Wednesday - Yougov poll showed Con 32.5% - Lab 33.25%. Only rounding made them even.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm multi tasking, but I think this is the first time since Dec 2010 that YouGov have gone a week without a Lab lead.Scrapheap_as_was said:When was the last time a whole week of YouGovs went by with no Lab lead? OGH will know that one for sure.
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Why the difference in the Green vote ? Simple. Just look at the descriptions on the ballot paper for the two Green candidates. Once says "Green Party First Choice Candidate". The other says "Green Party Second Choice Candidate". So, it's inevitable in a two seat election with such descriptions that the poor Second Choice candidate gets no split votes. Why do the Greens think they have the right to decide ? The voters decide. Typical Greens.0
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?????????? You are adding together 2 different elections in 2012 and 2014 - Why ?Pulpstar said:929 979
651 486
441 573
188 258
123 232
39.3 Con
23.4 LD
20.9 Lab
9.2 Green
7.3 UKIP0 -
Mark Senior is right. To work out the %s, you should take the average votes for each Party.
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St Albans DC web site has the figures. http://www.stalbans.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/elections/default.aspx
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Because I completely misread the "script"MarkSenior said:
?????????? You are adding together 2 different elections in 2012 and 2014 - Why ?Pulpstar said:929 979
651 486
441 573
188 258
123 232
39.3 Con
23.4 LD
20.9 Lab
9.2 Green
7.3 UKIP 0 -
OK if there were two seats available, then the aggregate should be used.MarkSenior said:
Why , the calculation is easier but the result is distorted here where there is such a large discrepancy between the 2 Green candidates results . They were on the ballot paper as Green Party 1st and 2nd choice respectively . You could equally argue that it is better to take the lowest polling candidate for each partySunil_Prasannan said:
I think it's better to actually just use the higher polling candidate for each party.Pulpstar said:Helpfully everyone has put up two candidates - so I assume straight summation of the totals is OK...
3.7% Con -> LD Swing, Greens up 6.5% I make it.0 -
A portent for May ?!
Bad news for the Conservatives if so...0 -
And Ashcroft this week was actually 32.2 Lab, 31.5 Con.0
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At this rate puter will need to get the goalposts out again !Sunil_Prasannan said:And Ashcroft this week was actually 32.2 Lab, 31.5 Con.
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Seems a pretty good result for the LDs to me. Good base to win next time. Does anyone know if the Ward is in St Albans constituency ? If it is, the Ward would be a good bet for an LD win next time.0
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'Clutching' and 'straws' comes to mind! There is a reason YouGov is the PB Tory Gold Standard (of the week).justin124 said:
The detail of last night's _ Wednesday - Yougov poll showed Con 32.5% - Lab 33.25%. Only rounding made them even.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm multi tasking, but I think this is the first time since Dec 2010 that YouGov have gone a week without a Lab lead.Scrapheap_as_was said:When was the last time a whole week of YouGovs went by with no Lab lead? OGH will know that one for sure.
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Aggregate should be more appropriate for a two-seater.Thattallfella said:Mark Senior is right. To work out the %s, you should take the average votes for each Party.
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It's 10-1 if you fancy it with Paddys, I've pissed a fiver up the wall betting on the Tories in Bath however today so I don't really fancy another loser.Thattallfella said:Seems a pretty good result for the LDs to me. Good base to win next time. Does anyone know if the Ward is in St Albans constituency ? If it is, the Ward would be a good bet for an LD win next time.
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This is one seat the Conservatives won't want a collapse of the Labour vote in.0
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Mind you 1-9 Conservatives (Ladbrokes) looks distinctly unappealing off the back of this.0
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" in 2011, the Conservatives became the largest party (gaining five seats) but have found it very hard going ever since. The reason? Labour have started to make inroads. Between 2011 and 2014, Labour have made seven gains all from the Liberal Democrats and with St. Albans constituency being one of Ed Milliband’s must win seats two Labour gains here would certainly put him in a good mood, the problem is though UKIP."
This paragraph makes no sense to me at all.0 -
Peace has cost you your strength. Victory has defeated youRobD said:
'Clutching' and 'straws' comes to mind! There is a reason YouGov is the PB Tory Gold Standard (of the week).justin124 said:
The detail of last night's _ Wednesday - Yougov poll showed Con 32.5% - Lab 33.25%. Only rounding made them even.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm multi tasking, but I think this is the first time since Dec 2010 that YouGov have gone a week without a Lab lead.Scrapheap_as_was said:When was the last time a whole week of YouGovs went by with no Lab lead? OGH will know that one for sure.
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Hmm Good result for Lib Dem and Green, poor result for Conservatives, and as Prof Curtice would say - "This is certainly not the sort of result that portents an incoming Labour Government !"0
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Green average this week in the polls 6.6, LibDems 6.90
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Greens don't have major party status, Cameron seems determined to kibosh the debates so I think they'll get squeezed at the GE. They haven't reached a UKIP like critical mass yet.Sunil_Prasannan said:Green average this week in the polls 6.6, LibDems 6.9
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But they are almost at cross-over with the LDs!Pulpstar said:
Greens don't have major party status, Cameron seems determined to kibosh the debates so I think they'll get squeezed at the GE. They haven't reached a UKIP like critical mass yet.Sunil_Prasannan said:Green average this week in the polls 6.6, LibDems 6.9
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