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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : January 29th 2015

SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited January 2015 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : January 29th 2015

Marshalwick South on St. Albans (Two Conservative defences)
Result of council at last election (2014): Conservatives 29, Liberal Democrats 17, Labour 10, Greens 1, Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Conservatives and Opposition tied)

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited January 2015
    First.

    Sorry, TSE.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    1,400
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    A good run for Labour in what was a Tory/LD area? Not boding well for the LDs I guess.

    But hell, let's go with the story of the year so far, the Green 'surge' and completely against their trend in locals (so I'm told) let's predict a Green win here.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,702
    A must win seat? Labour were in a distant third with less than 18% of the vote in St. Albans at the last election.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Survivors of child sex abuse have received death threats after their personal details and confidential communications with an abuse inquiry were published online.

    Home Secretary Theresa May has written to Mr Vaz describing her "dismay" at the Committee's publishing of the documents.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1417450/death-threats-after-files-published-online

    !!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Casino_Royale said:

    A must win seat? Labour were in a distant third with less than 18% of the vote in St. Albans at the last election.

    Everyone knows with even a half decent leader Labour would be looking at a majority of 200.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,702
    kle4 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    A must win seat? Labour were in a distant third with less than 18% of the vote in St. Albans at the last election.

    Everyone knows with even a half decent leader Labour would be looking at a majority of 200.
    That's a very precise prediction for St. Albans. Everyone else must know something I don't.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,962
    edited January 2015
    MarkHopkins said:

    First.

    Sorry, TSE.

    I published this thread.

    It is bad form to be first on a thread that you publish.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    For those getting excited and really looking forward to the GE, Mr Hodges now has a GE countdown clock at the bottom of his blog page

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11376427/Ed-Miliband-has-sold-Labours-soul-for-3.5p.html
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    It's hard to see anything but two Conservative hold.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,037
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    First.

    Sorry, TSE.

    I published this thread.

    It is bad form to be first on a thread that you publish.
    What a cad! You've definitely done that before ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Green victory nailed on.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Moses_ said:

    For those getting excited and really looking forward to the GE, Mr Hodges now has a GE countdown clock at the bottom of his blog page

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11376427/Ed-Miliband-has-sold-Labours-soul-for-3.5p.html

    I feel sorry for Dan Hodges. What will happen to his career after May 7th? If Ed becomes PM he's going to look a bit silly and if Ed doesn't........ well Dan gets to say I told you so. Except with Ed Miliband's political career over what would Dan have left to write about? I suspect he'll suddenly realise just how much he really needed Ed.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,711
    MarkHopkins said:


    Survivors of child sex abuse have received death threats after their personal details and confidential communications with an abuse inquiry were published online.

    Home Secretary Theresa May has written to Mr Vaz describing her "dismay" at the Committee's publishing of the documents.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1417450/death-threats-after-files-published-online

    !!

    If Theresa May were to get her finger out and get on with the Inquiry she'd have some reason to grumble.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    "St. Albans constituency being one of Ed Milliband’s must win seats"

    Err !?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,962
    The most important question tonight.

    Can YouGov regain their Gold Standard Status?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Frankly I'm disappointed - no crazy fringe parties or independents standing? I know the Greens are pretty wacky, and you never know with those LDs, but UKIP are practically respectable thesedays, leaving only the big two? The people of St Albans deserve crazies just like the rest of us.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    St Albans should be a comfortable Tory hold, unless the reds go full yellow...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,962
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    First.

    Sorry, TSE.

    I published this thread.

    It is bad form to be first on a thread that you publish.
    What a cad! You've definitely done that before ;)
    Never.

    I promise to give up being first between now and the General Election.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,702
    FPT - Peter from Putney:

    Casino said:
    "I expect either a Conservative minority, with Lib Dem abstentions on confidence and supply matters, or a much weaker time-limited coalition deal with the Lib-Dems to end 2017.

    That'd be predicated on a few big constitutional reforms (e.g. PR for local elections sans referendum, in exchange for EU referendum) and a couple of joint budgets."

    So if the Tories were to win the most seats, your money would be on Tim Farron (or alternative new leftie LibDem leader) getting into bed in some guise or other with the Tories - the very best of luck with that hypothesis! I say absolutely no chance .... do you fancy a bet, it's been a while since we last crossed swords, nothing too big, maybe a score if you fancy it.

    *****

    Peter, I hope we've never crossed swords, but let me be clear about what I'm predicting: first, Tories to be ahead on seats. Second, I think they'll clock up between 285 and 305 seats. If pushed, I reckon the mid 290s. Third, the government to result to either be a Conservative minority, Conservative minority with Lib Dem confidence and supply or a 2nd Con-Lib Dem coalition. In that order.

    I don't 'expect' a 2nd Con-Lib Dem coalition. My money is actually on Conservative minority! But I do think it's possible. The two parties have been preparing the ground for it:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/9337311/why-are-the-lib-dems-duffing-up-the-tories-to-ensure-another-coalition/

    http://labourlist.org/2014/07/lib-dems-ready-for-new-coalition-with-the-tories-even-if-labour-wins-more-seats/

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liberal-democrat-conference-party-begins-to-soften-its-stance-on-fresh-coalition-with-tories-9778459.html

    I thinking you're assuming the Lib Dems will ditch Clegg. But, so low are expectations that if Clegg does retain 30 seats and a decent vote percentage (say, beats UKIP) plus a Con-Lib Dem 2nd coalition is the only option that provides (even a wafer thin) overall parliamentary majority, then he will stay and a 2nd coalition could result.

    If you really want to bet on this, I'm happy to be generous to you and offer you £20 at 4/1 (which is better than Betfair). If you win, I pay you £20. If I win (which I don't expect to) you pay me £80. Bet to be settled on the first ministry to be formed after the election.

    If you believe there's absolutely no chance, then you're getting a great deal!
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    FrankBooth said:

    Moses_ said:

    For those getting excited and really looking forward to the GE, Mr Hodges now has a GE countdown clock at the bottom of his blog page

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11376427/Ed-Miliband-has-sold-Labours-soul-for-3.5p.html

    I feel sorry for Dan Hodges. What will happen to his career after May 7th? If Ed becomes PM he's going to look a bit silly and if Ed doesn't........ well Dan gets to say I told you so. Except with Ed Miliband's political career over what would Dan have left to write about? I suspect he'll suddenly realise just how much he really needed Ed.

    He also pledged to streak naked down whitehall if ukip breaks 6% at the election.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Stereotomy said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Moses_ said:

    For those getting excited and really looking forward to the GE, Mr Hodges now has a GE countdown clock at the bottom of his blog page

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11376427/Ed-Miliband-has-sold-Labours-soul-for-3.5p.html

    I feel sorry for Dan Hodges. What will happen to his career after May 7th? If Ed becomes PM he's going to look a bit silly and if Ed doesn't........ well Dan gets to say I told you so. Except with Ed Miliband's political career over what would Dan have left to write about? I suspect he'll suddenly realise just how much he really needed Ed.

    He also pledged to streak naked down whitehall if ukip breaks 6% at the election.

    Yeah, we're all getting worried about that one.

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    FrankBooth said:

    Moses_ said:

    For those getting excited and really looking forward to the GE, Mr Hodges now has a GE countdown clock at the bottom of his blog page

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11376427/Ed-Miliband-has-sold-Labours-soul-for-3.5p.html

    I feel sorry for Dan Hodges. What will happen to his career after May 7th? If Ed becomes PM he's going to look a bit silly and if Ed doesn't........ well Dan gets to say I told you so. Except with Ed Miliband's political career over what would Dan have left to write about? I suspect he'll suddenly realise just how much he really needed Ed.

    Camerons whore is back. Welcome back Dan. Watch the share price in tissues rocket.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    Labour got to be having a giraffe...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11376427/Ed-Miliband-has-sold-Labours-soul-for-3.5p.html
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    If the Lib Dems are reduced to 30 seats and there was another coalition with the Tories what would the ratio of ministers be. 5:1 at present or 10:1 in line with respective MP numbers. I've not seen this question proffered once so far.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    England’s biggest hospitals veto NHS budget over patient safety fears

    Hospitals that provide 75% of all NHS services refuse to sign deal, saying £1.7bn cuts involved will put patient care at risk

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jan/29/englands-biggest-hospitals-refuse-nhs-budget-patient-safety-fears

    Is there an election coming or something?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,384
    edited January 2015
    FrankBooth said:

    Moses_ said:

    For those getting excited and really looking forward to the GE, Mr Hodges now has a GE countdown clock at the bottom of his blog page

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11376427/Ed-Miliband-has-sold-Labours-soul-for-3.5p.html

    I feel sorry for Dan Hodges. What will happen to his career after May 7th? If Ed becomes PM he's going to look a bit silly and if Ed doesn't........ well Dan gets to say I told you so. Except with Ed Miliband's political career over what would Dan have left to write about? I suspect he'll suddenly realise just how much he really needed Ed.

    1. He'll spend the next five years telling us why Ed Miliband becoming PM is a disaster for Ed Miliband.

    2. If Cameron stays in Downing St we'll have a referendum on the EU which means Dan can turn his fire on Farage/UKIP'ers.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    compouter2 said:

    The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.

    A leftie moaning about hypocrisy? Do you not understand irony?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    nigel4england said:

    compouter2 said:

    The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.

    A leftie moaning about hypocrisy? Do you not understand irony?
    LOL!
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    compouter2 said:

    The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.

    Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”

    Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."

    Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".

    That's hypocrisy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    FrankBooth said:

    If the Lib Dems are reduced to 30 seats and there was another coalition with the Tories what would the ratio of ministers be. 5:1 at present or 10:1 in line with respective MP numbers. I've not seen this question proffered once so far.

    Well on present polling even 30 looks optimistic of course, but at the moment the LDs have 5 Cabinet Ministers, so I'd say 2-3 depending on the exact number of MPs they get would be reasonable, and an appropriate number of juniors to that number of Cabinet level ministers.

    But I suspect even in the event Labour do not win, as I expect, the LDs would not want another formal coalition even if they were willing to prop the Tories up again.
    FrankBooth said:

    Moses_ said:

    For those getting excited and really looking forward to the GE, Mr Hodges now has a GE countdown clock at the bottom of his blog page

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11376427/Ed-Miliband-has-sold-Labours-soul-for-3.5p.html

    I feel sorry for Dan Hodges. What will happen to his career after May 7th? If Ed becomes PM he's going to look a bit silly and if Ed doesn't........ well Dan gets to say I told you so. Except with Ed Miliband's political career over what would Dan have left to write about? I suspect he'll suddenly realise just how much he really needed Ed.

    Your assessment is rather dependent on the idea that people who make certain predictions, often with a complete lack of self awareness and with staggering amounts of arrogance and bile for those that disagree (I don't think Dan is all that bad in that respect, but he has been very certain at least) which end up being very very wrong, will through embarrassment or professional pride not be willing to immediately leap to some other position with the same intensity with barely an acknowledgement of how wrong they were. That seems optimistic to me.

    When Ed wins Dan can just lament that he overestimated the British public and switch to criticising all the government's actions, he will still find a ready audience at the Telegraph for that. If Ed loses somehow, he can make hay about how right he was and push for Labour to return to the sorts of ideals he espouses from a position of relative strength. Sure it's not as marketable to a specific base as his current anti-Ed niche is, but it's viable.
  • TheKrakenAwakesTheKrakenAwakes Posts: 553
    FrankBooth said:

    If the Lib Dems are reduced to 30 seats and there was another coalition with the Tories what would the ratio of ministers be. 5:1 at present or 10:1 in line with respective MP numbers. I've not seen this question proffered once so far.

    I can't believe that the Lib Dems would consider another coalition. There were justifications last time with the economy in the state it was but this time it's different. With Labour moving left and the Tories moving right it would be an ideal time to step back and occupy that reasonable ground in the middle.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Ishmael_X said:

    compouter2 said:

    The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.

    Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”

    Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."

    Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".

    That's hypocrisy.
    Eh ?

    We have public sector frontline staff that can't currently speak English ?!
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Ishmael_X said:

    compouter2 said:

    The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.

    Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”

    Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."

    Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".

    That's hypocrisy.
    So "we will never try to out-Ukip Ukip" means "we will never have any area of policy agreement with Ukip"?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Pulpstar said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    compouter2 said:

    The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.

    Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”

    Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."

    Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".

    That's hypocrisy.
    Eh ?

    We have public sector frontline staff that can't currently speak English ?!
    Does Dolly Parton sleep on her back?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2015
    Stereotomy said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    compouter2 said:

    The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.

    Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”

    Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."

    Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".

    That's hypocrisy.
    So "we will never try to out-Ukip Ukip" means "we will never have any area of policy agreement with Ukip"?
    Outkipping Ukip is allowing mass immigration of the poorest people in Europe and letting them work at rates which they cant survive on and withdrawing their rights to benefits

    Let the poor immigrants work all the hours God sends for starvation wages while our fat lazy slobs watch Jezza on a flat screen paid for by us
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - Peter from Putney:

    Casino said:
    "I expect either a Conservative minority, with Lib Dem abstentions on confidence and supply matters, or a much weaker time-limited coalition deal with the Lib-Dems to end 2017.

    That'd be predicated on a few big constitutional reforms (e.g. PR for local elections sans referendum, in exchange for EU referendum) and a couple of joint budgets."

    So if the Tories were to win the most seats, your money would be on Tim Farron (or alternative new leftie LibDem leader) getting into bed in some guise or other with the Tories - the very best of luck with that hypothesis! I say absolutely no chance .... do you fancy a bet, it's been a while since we last crossed swords, nothing too big, maybe a score if you fancy it.

    *****

    Peter, I hope we've never crossed swords, but let me be clear about what I'm predicting: first, Tories to be ahead on seats. Second, I think they'll clock up between 285 and 305 seats. If pushed, I reckon the mid 290s. Third, the government to result to either be a Conservative minority, Conservative minority with Lib Dem confidence and supply or a 2nd Con-Lib Dem coalition. In that order.

    I don't 'expect' a 2nd Con-Lib Dem coalition. My money is actually on Conservative minority! But I do think it's possible. The two parties have been preparing the ground for it:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/9337311/why-are-the-lib-dems-duffing-up-the-tories-to-ensure-another-coalition/

    http://labourlist.org/2014/07/lib-dems-ready-for-new-coalition-with-the-tories-even-if-labour-wins-more-seats/

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liberal-democrat-conference-party-begins-to-soften-its-stance-on-fresh-coalition-with-tories-9778459.html

    I thinking you're assuming the Lib Dems will ditch Clegg. But, so low are expectations that if Clegg does retain 30 seats and a decent vote percentage (say, beats UKIP) plus a Con-Lib Dem 2nd coalition is the only option that provides (even a wafer thin) overall parliamentary majority, then he will stay and a 2nd coalition could result.

    If you really want to bet on this, I'm happy to be generous to you and offer you £20 at 4/1 (which is better than Betfair). If you win, I pay you £20. If I win (which I don't expect to) you pay me £80. Bet to be settled on the first ministry to be formed after the election.

    If you believe there's absolutely no chance, then you're getting a great deal!

    Casino -

    Thanks for your reply, I don't know why but I feel really tired tonight, actually I do know why ..... only 4 hours sleep last night did for me. So forgive me if I don't reply until the morning. It would be fun to have a punt on the GE with you, although this may not be ideal I'll let you know asap, but thanks anyway for your claimed generosity.
    ....... zzzzzzzz
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    One for the appalling audreyanne:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1416946/rotherham-victim-says-abusers-untouchable
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    I'd like an immigration system that treats my Malaysian friend the same as a pole :/
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited January 2015
    Missing word round.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31051171

    Whore - so much for Je suis Charlie.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    dr_spyn said:

    Missing word round.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31051171

    Whore - so much for Je suis Charlie.

    Fracking is a catch all for "I hate other people".
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Out Kipping Ukip would be mustard cord jacket AND trousers.

    May be worth a try for Ed..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited January 2015
    dr_spyn said:

    Missing word round.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31051171

    Whore - so much for Je suis Charlie.

    Terrorist? .... In BBC world, it appears to be the worst swear word going. You are more likely to get a Charlie Hebdo front cover than that word on the BBC.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Stereotomy said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    compouter2 said:

    The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.

    Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”

    Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."

    Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".

    That's hypocrisy.
    So "we will never try to out-Ukip Ukip" means "we will never have any area of policy agreement with Ukip"?
    Yes, if it's in an area where you never had or felt the need for having a policy at all until three weeks after Ukip announced one.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,702
    peter_from_putney said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - Peter from Putney:


    *****

    Peter, I hope we've never crossed swords, but let me be clear about what I'm predicting: first, Tories to be ahead on seats. Second, I think they'll clock up between 285 and 305 seats. If pushed, I reckon the mid 290s. Third, the government to result to either be a Conservative minority, Conservative minority with Lib Dem confidence and supply or a 2nd Con-Lib Dem coalition. In that order.

    I don't 'expect' a 2nd Con-Lib Dem coalition. My money is actually on Conservative minority! But I do think it's possible. The two parties have been preparing the ground for it:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/9337311/why-are-the-lib-dems-duffing-up-the-tories-to-ensure-another-coalition/

    http://labourlist.org/2014/07/lib-dems-ready-for-new-coalition-with-the-tories-even-if-labour-wins-more-seats/

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liberal-democrat-conference-party-begins-to-soften-its-stance-on-fresh-coalition-with-tories-9778459.html

    I thinking you're assuming the Lib Dems will ditch Clegg. But, so low are expectations that if Clegg does retain 30 seats and a decent vote percentage (say, beats UKIP) plus a Con-Lib Dem 2nd coalition is the only option that provides (even a wafer thin) overall parliamentary majority, then he will stay and a 2nd coalition could result.

    If you really want to bet on this, I'm happy to be generous to you and offer you £20 at 4/1 (which is better than Betfair). If you win, I pay you £20. If I win (which I don't expect to) you pay me £80. Bet to be settled on the first ministry to be formed after the election.

    If you believe there's absolutely no chance, then you're getting a great deal!

    Casino -

    Thanks for your reply, I don't know why but I feel really tired tonight, actually I do know why ..... only 4 hours sleep last night did for me. So forgive me if I don't reply until the morning. It would be fun to have a punt on the GE with you, although this may not be ideal I'll let you know asap, but thanks anyway for your claimed generosity.
    ....... zzzzzzzz
    I hear you. I feel the same way. Sleep well.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    dr_spyn said:

    Missing word round.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31051171

    Whore - so much for Je suis Charlie.


    Are you sure it isn't that terrible four-letter swear word: Tory ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,962
    edited January 2015
    MarkHopkins said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Missing word round.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31051171

    Whore - so much for Je suis Charlie.


    Are you sure it isn't that terrible four-letter swear word: Tory ?
    It reminds me of the following exchange in court, where a witness saw an assault, and after the assault the attacker said to the victim "You deserved that you f*cking c*nt"

    So on the witness stand the witness said

    "I saw the dependant, repeatedly kick and punch the victim several time, then as he walked away, he said to the victim "You deserved that you effing c*nt"

    The judge then said, "I think you censored the wrong swear word there"
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Just wondered if anyone had seen this? Trouble in Bonn with Greece also threatening the southern flank. I am reminded of the Dambusters film where the Mohne dam is attacked and finally it fails after several hits. ( particularly if the Greeks have that well rumoured printing press)

    Germany succumbs to Europe’s deflationary crisis
    The euro area's economic titan has joined the rest of the currency bloc, and has entered deflation in January, for the first time since October 2009


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11376346/Germany-succumbs-to-Europes-deflationary-crisis.html
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Ishmael_X said:

    compouter2 said:

    The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.

    Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”

    Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."

    Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".

    That's hypocrisy.
    Labour are doing everything they can think of to look tough on immigration without taking any steps that would actually limit immigration numbers. More border control agents, English in the NHS, electronic immigration checks, more inspectors for minimum wage. However, they still happily support a net quarter million coming here every year.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Missing word round.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31051171

    Whore - so much for Je suis Charlie.


    Are you sure it isn't that terrible four-letter swear word: Tory ?
    It reminds me of the following exchange in court, where a witness saw an assault, and after the assault the attacker said to the victim "You deserved that you f*cking c*nt"

    So on the witness stand the witness said

    "I saw the dependant, repeatedly kick and punch the victim several time, then as he walked away, he said to the victim "You deserved that you effing c*nt"

    The judge then said, "I think you censored the wrong swear word there"
    Reminds me of the old joke

    Judge "Before I pass sentence, do you have anything to say for yourself"
    Defendant: "Fuck All"
    Judge (to lawyer) "What did he say?!"
    Lawyer "He said 'fuck all' your honour"
    Judge "He said something, I saw his lips move!"
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited January 2015
    MarkHopkins said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Missing word round.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31051171

    Whore - so much for Je suis Charlie.


    Are you sure it isn't that terrible four-letter swear word: Tory ?
    The photo on Guido is clear - W h o r e - I saw the graffiti & the plodsters this morning. But whore appears to be on The BBC's banned list. I hope that they are not running scarred of militant eco loons.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Missing word round.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31051171

    Whore - so much for Je suis Charlie.


    Are you sure it isn't that terrible four-letter swear word: Tory ?
    It reminds me of the following exchange in court, where a witness saw an assault, and after the assault the attacker said to the victim "You deserved that you f*cking c*nt"

    So on the witness stand the witness said

    "I saw the dependant, repeatedly kick and punch the victim several time, then as he walked away, he said to the victim "You deserved that you effing c*nt"

    The judge then said, "I think you censored the wrong swear word there"
    Reminds me of the old joke

    Judge "Before I pass sentence, do you have anything to say for yourself"
    Defendant: "Fuck All"
    Judge (to lawyer) "What did he say?!"
    Lawyer "He said 'fuck all' your honour"
    Judge "He said something, I saw his lips move!"
    Also the old joke about the Irish bloke telling his wife to close her legs but thats not for now
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Missing word round.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31051171

    Whore - so much for Je suis Charlie.


    Are you sure it isn't that terrible four-letter swear word: Tory ?
    It reminds me of the following exchange in court, where a witness saw an assault, and after the assault the attacker said to the victim "You deserved that you f*cking c*nt"

    So on the witness stand the witness said

    "I saw the dependant, repeatedly kick and punch the victim several time, then as he walked away, he said to the victim "You deserved that you effing c*nt"

    The judge then said, "I think you censored the wrong swear word there"
    Plymouth inner city schoolboy goes on day trip to farm. In the evening his dad asks him what he saw.

    "some sheep, some pigs and some fuckers."

    "fuckers, boy?"

    "yes, dad. Farmer called them 'eifers, but I knew what he meant".

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Hear Labour were refusing all day to put anyone up on #Newsnight to talk about NHS. Have they managed to weaponise someone yet? Why so shy?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Another Labour/Tory tie marks a full week without a Labour lead: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,962
    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Another Labour/Tory tie marks a full week without a Labour lead: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    nigel4england said:

    One for the appalling audreyanne:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1416946/rotherham-victim-says-abusers-untouchable

    Thanks for that. You're a charming chappie, aren't you?

    You shouldn't equate not wishing to see pb.com hijacked day after day about this topic, with disinterest in, or complicity towards, the topic itself.

    Actually, why am I even bothering?

    Night.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    FPT
    rcs1000 said:

    Greengage said:

    'Fracking whore' becomes the 2015 election put-down of choice. See Guido Fawkes. All parties are in favour except Green. This hostility is driving the rise and rise of the Green Party, which is keeping Conservative in the game by slashing Lib Dem and Labour support. Should UKIP manage to awaken from their corporate sell-out over energy, they'd turn the tables. Here's a UKIP fracking whore trying to sound intelligent today. Fail.

    http://tapnewswire.com/2015/01/ukips-energy-spokesman-conned-by-fracking-junket-to-usa/

    With oil below $50, there will be no fracking.
    And with fracking, oil will stay below $50.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Another Labour/Tory tie marks a full week without a Labour lead: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%

    This poll is putting the combined Con/Lab share slightly higher than 2010, in contrast to most polls recently.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The requirement for a panel at the side of the page with the latest poll results grows
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    When was the last time a whole week of YouGovs went by with no Lab lead? OGH will know that one for sure.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,962
    LMAO

    YOUNG British jihadis are losers who watch too much porn because they can’t pull women, an MI5 probe has found.

    Tory Boris Johnson reveals our spy bosses’ blunt assessment in an exclusive interview today — and calls for the demystifying of UK extremists who join Islamic State.

    The London Mayor, who was handed the probe’s findings by security officials, said: “If you look at all the psychological profiling about bombers, they typically will look at porn. They are literally w***ers. Severe onanists.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6308931/Boris-Johnson-Jihadists-are-just-a-bunch-of-ws.html?CMP=spklr-137372003-Editorial-TWITTER-Sun_Politics-20150129-Politics
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Moses_ said:

    Just wondered if anyone had seen this? Trouble in Bonn with Greece also threatening the southern flank. I am reminded of the Dambusters film where the Mohne dam is attacked and finally it fails after several hits. ( particularly if the Greeks have that well rumoured printing press)

    Germany succumbs to Europe’s deflationary crisis
    The euro area's economic titan has joined the rest of the currency bloc, and has entered deflation in January, for the first time since October 2009


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11376346/Germany-succumbs-to-Europes-deflationary-crisis.html

    Germany's inflation phobia has led to their undoing. In a few years they'll learn that getting out of deflation is far, far harder than curbing inflation. The whole continent is going Japanese.

    And we think we should prioritise free trade with them over the rest of the world. I know I bang on about the same few things a lot but (a) they are important issues and (b) I'm right about them.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Another Labour/Tory tie marks a full week without a Labour lead: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%

    This poll is putting the combined Con/Lab share slightly higher than 2010, in contrast to most polls recently.
    I'd estimate there is now a 66% chance the Tories are actually in the lead...
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited January 2015
    O/t and certainly totally unrelated to TSE's latest postings....


    Isabel Hardman retweeted
    BBC This Week‏@bbcthisweek·5 mins5 minutes ago
    With no Diane tonight, there's a new goddess on #bbctw as @IsabelHardman will round up the headlines


    The tweet appears to show her in a toga holding some round objects.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LMAO

    YOUNG British jihadis are losers who watch too much porn because they can’t pull women, an MI5 probe has found.

    Tory Boris Johnson reveals our spy bosses’ blunt assessment in an exclusive interview today — and calls for the demystifying of UK extremists who join Islamic State.

    The London Mayor, who was handed the probe’s findings by security officials, said: “If you look at all the psychological profiling about bombers, they typically will look at porn. They are literally w***ers. Severe onanists.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6308931/Boris-Johnson-Jihadists-are-just-a-bunch-of-ws.html?CMP=spklr-137372003-Editorial-TWITTER-Sun_Politics-20150129-Politics

    I wonder what else they do because they cant pull women...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,962
    edited January 2015
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    When was the last time a whole week of YouGovs went by with no Lab lead? OGH will know that one for sure.

    I'm multi tasking, but I think this is the first time since Dec 2010 that YouGov have gone a week without a Lab lead.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GuideToPolitics: #newsnight opener is @BBCAllegra report on Labour splits. Says another former Lab Health Minister is now attacking @andyburnhammp

    @PCollinsTimes: The Labour election campaign on health is already more about the definition of defeat than the likelihood of victory.

    Where do labour go now then? Health was it; the one card they thought they could play...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2015
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Another Labour/Tory tie marks a full week without a Labour lead: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%

    This poll is putting the combined Con/Lab share slightly higher than 2010, in contrast to most polls recently.
    I'd estimate there is now a 66% chance the Tories are actually in the lead...
    I wonder... if the SNP surge hadn't happened, would Labour still be ahead? Maybe, but not necessarily: Scotland only accounted for 8.5% of total GB votes in 2010.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @michaelsavage: Blimey. Quite an evisceration of Labour health divisions on #Newsnight. As tough as anything you'll find in the "right-wing press".
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    When was the last time a whole week of YouGovs went by with no Lab lead? OGH will know that one for sure.

    I'm multi tasking, but I think this is the first time since Dec 2010 that YouGov have gone a week without a Lab leader.
    Now that is far too much information..
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,962
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    When was the last time a whole week of YouGovs went by with no Lab lead? OGH will know that one for sure.

    I'm multi tasking, but I think this is the first time since Dec 2010 that YouGov have gone a week without a Lab leader.
    Now that is far too much information..
    I meant Lab lead.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    A simple average puts the Conservatives 0.3% ahead, this week.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    What did the Newsnight VT on Lab NHS policy say?

    Lab MP squirming
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Very good for Con to be up on 34.

    I think 34-34 is better for Con than 33-33.

    Both are a tie but it means a stronger position vs LD (and UKIP).

    Plus it indicates momentum in sense of people returning to Con.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2015
    How does watching porn differentiate young Muslim men from other young men? Is it for "scoops" like this that we're paying MI5's bills?
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited January 2015
    isam said:

    The requirement for a panel at the side of the page with the latest poll results grows

    Very good idea. Anthony does it over at UKPR but doesn't update quite as often as ideal. Think it's an excellent idea for a betting site like this.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    audreyanne said:

    isam said:

    The requirement for a panel at the side of the page with the latest poll results grows

    Very good idea. Anthony does it over at UKPR but doesn't update quite as often as ideal. Think it's an excellent idea for a betting site like this.
    agreed
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Hear Labour were refusing all day to put anyone up on #Newsnight to talk about NHS. Have they managed to weaponise someone yet? Why so shy?

    Labour ought to be embarrassed.
    But its also amusing to read that the co editor of Guido Fawkes, went to Tonbridge School before reading politics at Edinburgh and has never had a 'proper job' in his still juvenile life. Remind me just what is the big hate for the the anti establishment figures that love Guido?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Don Hale OBE ‏@perryscope21 52m52 minutes ago
    Ex-Cameron aide Patrick Rock faces trial over child abuse images http://gu.com/p/3qkvv/stw
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,962
    edited January 2015
    bigjohnowls said:

    Don Hale OBE ‏@perryscope21 52m52 minutes ago
    Ex-Cameron aide Patrick Rock faces trial over child abuse images http://gu.com/p/3qkvv/stw

    That story is nearly 7 months old.

    The trial is next month I think?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    bigjohnowls said:

    Don Hale OBE ‏@perryscope21 52m52 minutes ago
    Ex-Cameron aide Patrick Rock faces trial over child abuse images http://gu.com/p/3qkvv/stw

    It'll be a disaster for ED, I'm tellling yer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Flightpath said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Hear Labour were refusing all day to put anyone up on #Newsnight to talk about NHS. Have they managed to weaponise someone yet? Why so shy?

    Labour ought to be embarrassed.
    But its also amusing to read that the co editor of Guido Fawkes, went to Tonbridge School before reading politics at Edinburgh and has never had a 'proper job' in his still juvenile life. Remind me just what is the big hate for the the anti establishment figures that love Guido?
    Now now, everyone knows it's different when it comes to ones self. It's why Labour can get away with attack lines about out of touch Tory toffs slightly better than they should do given the similar backgrounds, educations and styles of the leaderships on all sides. Well known.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,384
    UKPR polling average updated to yesterday and Lab sill have a 1% lead;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

    Don't think that would hold for another week like this week, though.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Scott_P said:

    @GuideToPolitics: #newsnight opener is @BBCAllegra report on Labour splits. Says another former Lab Health Minister is now attacking @andyburnhammp

    @PCollinsTimes: The Labour election campaign on health is already more about the definition of defeat than the likelihood of victory.

    Where do labour go now then? Health was it; the one card they thought they could play...

    Presumably Milburn (the 2nd worst SOS) behind Lansley
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    AndyJS said:

    How does watching porn differentiate young Muslim men from other young men? Is it for "scoops" like this that we're paying MI5's bills?

    I think the issue is the disconnect between the image they try to portray to their conservative muslim families, and the reality that they're just like other young men, with normal human instincts/desires that their culture/religion/community tries to repress.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,384
    edited January 2015
    Just taking YouGov on it's own though, it seem's that Crossover could have occurred on the graph?

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sean_F said:

    A simple average puts the Conservatives 0.3% ahead, this week.

    Yes, weighted average about the same. Pooling the polls and calculating margin of error comes out with about 66% chance of Tory lead >0.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    To borrow a phrase from Boris.

    Two complete wan**rs

    https://twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/560422310944178176/photo/1
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,962
    bigjohnowls said:

    To borrow a phrase from Boris.

    Two complete wan**rs

    twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/560422310944178176/photo/1

    Labour supporters attacking their own.

    Just what I want to see three months before the election.

    What makes it even funnier, it is on Labour's favoured turf, the NHS,

    Keep up the good work.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    GIN1138 said:

    Just taking YouGov on it's own though, it seem's that Crossover could have occurred on the graph?

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention

    UKPR still gives high weightings for last week's ICM and Populus polls.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCAllegra: Fresh worries about Labour's NHS policy - this time from one of UK's most respected surgeons + former Lab minister http://t.co/IiOBMNRjds

    @politicshome: Culture Secretary @sajidjavid on #bbcqt "If people outside want to know what would happen to the NHS if Labour ran it... look here [Wales]"
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    bigjohnowls said:

    What did the Newsnight VT on Lab NHS policy say?

    Lab MP squirming

    It said too many ex-NHS staff retire at ridiculously early ages to ponce off the rest of us.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCAllegra: Fresh worries about Labour's NHS policy - this time from one of UK's most respected surgeons + former Lab minister http://t.co/IiOBMNRjds

    However, Mr Le Grande said the preferred provider policy was "daft".

    "It's protectionist, it's going to protect the inefficient. It's going to protect the incompetence, it's going to protect the low quality service," he said.

    Well, quite. Only the most ideologically obsessed, or those conflicted because they are themselves part of the vested interests being thus protected, could possibly disagree with that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    All square again with yougov, all to play for

    Flightpath Good to see a fellow OT conquering the heights of ISIS

    Jihadists watching porn surely marks them as typical of most young men, however as ISIS have flogged a man for watching it in Syria probably best to stay in their rooms than join Jihad
    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/isis-militants-flog-man-watching-porn-syria-1481407
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Ishmael_X said:

    compouter2 said:

    The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.

    Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”

    Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."

    Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".

    That's hypocrisy.
    That's hilarious.
    So in 2015 Farage says immigrants should/must learn to speak English?

    But back in May 2014 (ie last year) it was widely reported that Tory Culture Secretary Sajid Javid said Migrants to Britain should be able to speak English and ‘respect its laws and culture’. He said it was not good enough for migrants to live in the UK for up to 50 years without being able to speak English.

    And its this current government which has introduced English language tests for non-EU citizens who want to settle in the UK. Its this governments Tory PM who said way back in Jan 2014 that benefits should be cut if claimants could not speak English and that the translation of leaflets into multiple languages would stop. Typically the LDs did not like the idea. Indeed when Cameron made his speech criticising the lefty policy of multiculturalism he said then that immigrants should integrate and learn English.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Red comrade Hain going big love for the new communist regime in Athens on QT.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    TGOHF said:

    Red comrade Hain going big love for the new communist regime in Athens on QT.

    Unfortunately even Ed M is not stupid enough to fall into that trap.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    nigel4england said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    What did the Newsnight VT on Lab NHS policy say?

    Lab MP squirming

    It said too many ex-NHS staff retire at ridiculously early ages to ponce off the rest of us.
    I think you made that up.

    Trolling Law must be a worry for you
This discussion has been closed.