politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : January 29th 2015
Marshalwick South on St. Albans (Two Conservative defences)
Result of council at last election (2014): Conservatives 29, Liberal Democrats 17, Labour 10, Greens 1, Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Conservatives and Opposition tied)
Comments
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First.
Sorry, TSE.
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1,4000
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A good run for Labour in what was a Tory/LD area? Not boding well for the LDs I guess.
But hell, let's go with the story of the year so far, the Green 'surge' and completely against their trend in locals (so I'm told) let's predict a Green win here.0 -
A must win seat? Labour were in a distant third with less than 18% of the vote in St. Albans at the last election.0
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Survivors of child sex abuse have received death threats after their personal details and confidential communications with an abuse inquiry were published online.
Home Secretary Theresa May has written to Mr Vaz describing her "dismay" at the Committee's publishing of the documents.
http://news.sky.com/story/1417450/death-threats-after-files-published-online
!!
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Everyone knows with even a half decent leader Labour would be looking at a majority of 200.Casino_Royale said:A must win seat? Labour were in a distant third with less than 18% of the vote in St. Albans at the last election.
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That's a very precise prediction for St. Albans. Everyone else must know something I don't.kle4 said:
Everyone knows with even a half decent leader Labour would be looking at a majority of 200.Casino_Royale said:A must win seat? Labour were in a distant third with less than 18% of the vote in St. Albans at the last election.
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I published this thread.MarkHopkins said:First.
Sorry, TSE.
It is bad form to be first on a thread that you publish.0 -
For those getting excited and really looking forward to the GE, Mr Hodges now has a GE countdown clock at the bottom of his blog page
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11376427/Ed-Miliband-has-sold-Labours-soul-for-3.5p.html0 -
It's hard to see anything but two Conservative hold.0
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What a cad! You've definitely done that beforeTheScreamingEagles said:
I published this thread.MarkHopkins said:First.
Sorry, TSE.
It is bad form to be first on a thread that you publish.
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Green victory nailed on.0
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I feel sorry for Dan Hodges. What will happen to his career after May 7th? If Ed becomes PM he's going to look a bit silly and if Ed doesn't........ well Dan gets to say I told you so. Except with Ed Miliband's political career over what would Dan have left to write about? I suspect he'll suddenly realise just how much he really needed Ed.Moses_ said:For those getting excited and really looking forward to the GE, Mr Hodges now has a GE countdown clock at the bottom of his blog page
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11376427/Ed-Miliband-has-sold-Labours-soul-for-3.5p.html
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If Theresa May were to get her finger out and get on with the Inquiry she'd have some reason to grumble.MarkHopkins said:
Survivors of child sex abuse have received death threats after their personal details and confidential communications with an abuse inquiry were published online.
Home Secretary Theresa May has written to Mr Vaz describing her "dismay" at the Committee's publishing of the documents.
http://news.sky.com/story/1417450/death-threats-after-files-published-online
!!0 -
"St. Albans constituency being one of Ed Milliband’s must win seats"
Err !?0 -
The most important question tonight.
Can YouGov regain their Gold Standard Status?0 -
Frankly I'm disappointed - no crazy fringe parties or independents standing? I know the Greens are pretty wacky, and you never know with those LDs, but UKIP are practically respectable thesedays, leaving only the big two? The people of St Albans deserve crazies just like the rest of us.0
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St Albans should be a comfortable Tory hold, unless the reds go full yellow...0
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Never.RobD said:
What a cad! You've definitely done that beforeTheScreamingEagles said:
I published this thread.MarkHopkins said:First.
Sorry, TSE.
It is bad form to be first on a thread that you publish.
I promise to give up being first between now and the General Election.0 -
FPT - Peter from Putney:
Casino said:
"I expect either a Conservative minority, with Lib Dem abstentions on confidence and supply matters, or a much weaker time-limited coalition deal with the Lib-Dems to end 2017.
That'd be predicated on a few big constitutional reforms (e.g. PR for local elections sans referendum, in exchange for EU referendum) and a couple of joint budgets."
So if the Tories were to win the most seats, your money would be on Tim Farron (or alternative new leftie LibDem leader) getting into bed in some guise or other with the Tories - the very best of luck with that hypothesis! I say absolutely no chance .... do you fancy a bet, it's been a while since we last crossed swords, nothing too big, maybe a score if you fancy it.
*****
Peter, I hope we've never crossed swords, but let me be clear about what I'm predicting: first, Tories to be ahead on seats. Second, I think they'll clock up between 285 and 305 seats. If pushed, I reckon the mid 290s. Third, the government to result to either be a Conservative minority, Conservative minority with Lib Dem confidence and supply or a 2nd Con-Lib Dem coalition. In that order.
I don't 'expect' a 2nd Con-Lib Dem coalition. My money is actually on Conservative minority! But I do think it's possible. The two parties have been preparing the ground for it:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/9337311/why-are-the-lib-dems-duffing-up-the-tories-to-ensure-another-coalition/
http://labourlist.org/2014/07/lib-dems-ready-for-new-coalition-with-the-tories-even-if-labour-wins-more-seats/
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liberal-democrat-conference-party-begins-to-soften-its-stance-on-fresh-coalition-with-tories-9778459.html
I thinking you're assuming the Lib Dems will ditch Clegg. But, so low are expectations that if Clegg does retain 30 seats and a decent vote percentage (say, beats UKIP) plus a Con-Lib Dem 2nd coalition is the only option that provides (even a wafer thin) overall parliamentary majority, then he will stay and a 2nd coalition could result.
If you really want to bet on this, I'm happy to be generous to you and offer you £20 at 4/1 (which is better than Betfair). If you win, I pay you £20. If I win (which I don't expect to) you pay me £80. Bet to be settled on the first ministry to be formed after the election.
If you believe there's absolutely no chance, then you're getting a great deal!
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He also pledged to streak naked down whitehall if ukip breaks 6% at the election.FrankBooth said:
I feel sorry for Dan Hodges. What will happen to his career after May 7th? If Ed becomes PM he's going to look a bit silly and if Ed doesn't........ well Dan gets to say I told you so. Except with Ed Miliband's political career over what would Dan have left to write about? I suspect he'll suddenly realise just how much he really needed Ed.Moses_ said:For those getting excited and really looking forward to the GE, Mr Hodges now has a GE countdown clock at the bottom of his blog page
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11376427/Ed-Miliband-has-sold-Labours-soul-for-3.5p.html0 -
Stereotomy said:
He also pledged to streak naked down whitehall if ukip breaks 6% at the election.FrankBooth said:
I feel sorry for Dan Hodges. What will happen to his career after May 7th? If Ed becomes PM he's going to look a bit silly and if Ed doesn't........ well Dan gets to say I told you so. Except with Ed Miliband's political career over what would Dan have left to write about? I suspect he'll suddenly realise just how much he really needed Ed.Moses_ said:For those getting excited and really looking forward to the GE, Mr Hodges now has a GE countdown clock at the bottom of his blog page
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11376427/Ed-Miliband-has-sold-Labours-soul-for-3.5p.html
Yeah, we're all getting worried about that one.
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Camerons whore is back. Welcome back Dan. Watch the share price in tissues rocket.FrankBooth said:
I feel sorry for Dan Hodges. What will happen to his career after May 7th? If Ed becomes PM he's going to look a bit silly and if Ed doesn't........ well Dan gets to say I told you so. Except with Ed Miliband's political career over what would Dan have left to write about? I suspect he'll suddenly realise just how much he really needed Ed.Moses_ said:For those getting excited and really looking forward to the GE, Mr Hodges now has a GE countdown clock at the bottom of his blog page
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11376427/Ed-Miliband-has-sold-Labours-soul-for-3.5p.html0 -
Labour got to be having a giraffe...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11376427/Ed-Miliband-has-sold-Labours-soul-for-3.5p.html0 -
If the Lib Dems are reduced to 30 seats and there was another coalition with the Tories what would the ratio of ministers be. 5:1 at present or 10:1 in line with respective MP numbers. I've not seen this question proffered once so far.0
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England’s biggest hospitals veto NHS budget over patient safety fears
Hospitals that provide 75% of all NHS services refuse to sign deal, saying £1.7bn cuts involved will put patient care at risk
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jan/29/englands-biggest-hospitals-refuse-nhs-budget-patient-safety-fears
Is there an election coming or something?0 -
The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.0
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1. He'll spend the next five years telling us why Ed Miliband becoming PM is a disaster for Ed Miliband.FrankBooth said:
I feel sorry for Dan Hodges. What will happen to his career after May 7th? If Ed becomes PM he's going to look a bit silly and if Ed doesn't........ well Dan gets to say I told you so. Except with Ed Miliband's political career over what would Dan have left to write about? I suspect he'll suddenly realise just how much he really needed Ed.Moses_ said:For those getting excited and really looking forward to the GE, Mr Hodges now has a GE countdown clock at the bottom of his blog page
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11376427/Ed-Miliband-has-sold-Labours-soul-for-3.5p.html
2. If Cameron stays in Downing St we'll have a referendum on the EU which means Dan can turn his fire on Farage/UKIP'ers.
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A leftie moaning about hypocrisy? Do you not understand irony?compouter2 said:The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.
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LOL!nigel4england said:
A leftie moaning about hypocrisy? Do you not understand irony?compouter2 said:The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.
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Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”compouter2 said:The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.
Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."
Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".
That's hypocrisy.0 -
Well on present polling even 30 looks optimistic of course, but at the moment the LDs have 5 Cabinet Ministers, so I'd say 2-3 depending on the exact number of MPs they get would be reasonable, and an appropriate number of juniors to that number of Cabinet level ministers.FrankBooth said:If the Lib Dems are reduced to 30 seats and there was another coalition with the Tories what would the ratio of ministers be. 5:1 at present or 10:1 in line with respective MP numbers. I've not seen this question proffered once so far.
But I suspect even in the event Labour do not win, as I expect, the LDs would not want another formal coalition even if they were willing to prop the Tories up again.
Your assessment is rather dependent on the idea that people who make certain predictions, often with a complete lack of self awareness and with staggering amounts of arrogance and bile for those that disagree (I don't think Dan is all that bad in that respect, but he has been very certain at least) which end up being very very wrong, will through embarrassment or professional pride not be willing to immediately leap to some other position with the same intensity with barely an acknowledgement of how wrong they were. That seems optimistic to me.FrankBooth said:
I feel sorry for Dan Hodges. What will happen to his career after May 7th? If Ed becomes PM he's going to look a bit silly and if Ed doesn't........ well Dan gets to say I told you so. Except with Ed Miliband's political career over what would Dan have left to write about? I suspect he'll suddenly realise just how much he really needed Ed.Moses_ said:For those getting excited and really looking forward to the GE, Mr Hodges now has a GE countdown clock at the bottom of his blog page
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11376427/Ed-Miliband-has-sold-Labours-soul-for-3.5p.html
When Ed wins Dan can just lament that he overestimated the British public and switch to criticising all the government's actions, he will still find a ready audience at the Telegraph for that. If Ed loses somehow, he can make hay about how right he was and push for Labour to return to the sorts of ideals he espouses from a position of relative strength. Sure it's not as marketable to a specific base as his current anti-Ed niche is, but it's viable.0 -
I can't believe that the Lib Dems would consider another coalition. There were justifications last time with the economy in the state it was but this time it's different. With Labour moving left and the Tories moving right it would be an ideal time to step back and occupy that reasonable ground in the middle.FrankBooth said:If the Lib Dems are reduced to 30 seats and there was another coalition with the Tories what would the ratio of ministers be. 5:1 at present or 10:1 in line with respective MP numbers. I've not seen this question proffered once so far.
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Eh ?Ishmael_X said:
Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”compouter2 said:The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.
Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."
Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".
That's hypocrisy.
We have public sector frontline staff that can't currently speak English ?!
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So "we will never try to out-Ukip Ukip" means "we will never have any area of policy agreement with Ukip"?Ishmael_X said:
Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”compouter2 said:The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.
Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."
Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".
That's hypocrisy.
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Does Dolly Parton sleep on her back?Pulpstar said:
Eh ?Ishmael_X said:
Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”compouter2 said:The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.
Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."
Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".
That's hypocrisy.
We have public sector frontline staff that can't currently speak English ?!0 -
Outkipping Ukip is allowing mass immigration of the poorest people in Europe and letting them work at rates which they cant survive on and withdrawing their rights to benefitsStereotomy said:
So "we will never try to out-Ukip Ukip" means "we will never have any area of policy agreement with Ukip"?Ishmael_X said:
Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”compouter2 said:The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.
Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."
Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".
That's hypocrisy.
Let the poor immigrants work all the hours God sends for starvation wages while our fat lazy slobs watch Jezza on a flat screen paid for by us0 -
Casino -Casino_Royale said:FPT - Peter from Putney:
Casino said:
"I expect either a Conservative minority, with Lib Dem abstentions on confidence and supply matters, or a much weaker time-limited coalition deal with the Lib-Dems to end 2017.
That'd be predicated on a few big constitutional reforms (e.g. PR for local elections sans referendum, in exchange for EU referendum) and a couple of joint budgets."
So if the Tories were to win the most seats, your money would be on Tim Farron (or alternative new leftie LibDem leader) getting into bed in some guise or other with the Tories - the very best of luck with that hypothesis! I say absolutely no chance .... do you fancy a bet, it's been a while since we last crossed swords, nothing too big, maybe a score if you fancy it.
*****
Peter, I hope we've never crossed swords, but let me be clear about what I'm predicting: first, Tories to be ahead on seats. Second, I think they'll clock up between 285 and 305 seats. If pushed, I reckon the mid 290s. Third, the government to result to either be a Conservative minority, Conservative minority with Lib Dem confidence and supply or a 2nd Con-Lib Dem coalition. In that order.
I don't 'expect' a 2nd Con-Lib Dem coalition. My money is actually on Conservative minority! But I do think it's possible. The two parties have been preparing the ground for it:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/9337311/why-are-the-lib-dems-duffing-up-the-tories-to-ensure-another-coalition/
http://labourlist.org/2014/07/lib-dems-ready-for-new-coalition-with-the-tories-even-if-labour-wins-more-seats/
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liberal-democrat-conference-party-begins-to-soften-its-stance-on-fresh-coalition-with-tories-9778459.html
I thinking you're assuming the Lib Dems will ditch Clegg. But, so low are expectations that if Clegg does retain 30 seats and a decent vote percentage (say, beats UKIP) plus a Con-Lib Dem 2nd coalition is the only option that provides (even a wafer thin) overall parliamentary majority, then he will stay and a 2nd coalition could result.
If you really want to bet on this, I'm happy to be generous to you and offer you £20 at 4/1 (which is better than Betfair). If you win, I pay you £20. If I win (which I don't expect to) you pay me £80. Bet to be settled on the first ministry to be formed after the election.
If you believe there's absolutely no chance, then you're getting a great deal!
Thanks for your reply, I don't know why but I feel really tired tonight, actually I do know why ..... only 4 hours sleep last night did for me. So forgive me if I don't reply until the morning. It would be fun to have a punt on the GE with you, although this may not be ideal I'll let you know asap, but thanks anyway for your claimed generosity.
....... zzzzzzzz0 -
One for the appalling audreyanne:
http://news.sky.com/story/1416946/rotherham-victim-says-abusers-untouchable0 -
I'd like an immigration system that treats my Malaysian friend the same as a pole
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Missing word round.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31051171
Whore - so much for Je suis Charlie.0 -
Fracking is a catch all for "I hate other people".dr_spyn said:Missing word round.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31051171
Whore - so much for Je suis Charlie.0 -
Out Kipping Ukip would be mustard cord jacket AND trousers.
May be worth a try for Ed..0 -
Terrorist? .... In BBC world, it appears to be the worst swear word going. You are more likely to get a Charlie Hebdo front cover than that word on the BBC.dr_spyn said:Missing word round.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31051171
Whore - so much for Je suis Charlie.0 -
Yes, if it's in an area where you never had or felt the need for having a policy at all until three weeks after Ukip announced one.Stereotomy said:
So "we will never try to out-Ukip Ukip" means "we will never have any area of policy agreement with Ukip"?Ishmael_X said:
Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”compouter2 said:The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.
Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."
Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".
That's hypocrisy.
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I hear you. I feel the same way. Sleep well.peter_from_putney said:
Casino -Casino_Royale said:FPT - Peter from Putney:
*****
Peter, I hope we've never crossed swords, but let me be clear about what I'm predicting: first, Tories to be ahead on seats. Second, I think they'll clock up between 285 and 305 seats. If pushed, I reckon the mid 290s. Third, the government to result to either be a Conservative minority, Conservative minority with Lib Dem confidence and supply or a 2nd Con-Lib Dem coalition. In that order.
I don't 'expect' a 2nd Con-Lib Dem coalition. My money is actually on Conservative minority! But I do think it's possible. The two parties have been preparing the ground for it:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/9337311/why-are-the-lib-dems-duffing-up-the-tories-to-ensure-another-coalition/
http://labourlist.org/2014/07/lib-dems-ready-for-new-coalition-with-the-tories-even-if-labour-wins-more-seats/
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liberal-democrat-conference-party-begins-to-soften-its-stance-on-fresh-coalition-with-tories-9778459.html
I thinking you're assuming the Lib Dems will ditch Clegg. But, so low are expectations that if Clegg does retain 30 seats and a decent vote percentage (say, beats UKIP) plus a Con-Lib Dem 2nd coalition is the only option that provides (even a wafer thin) overall parliamentary majority, then he will stay and a 2nd coalition could result.
If you really want to bet on this, I'm happy to be generous to you and offer you £20 at 4/1 (which is better than Betfair). If you win, I pay you £20. If I win (which I don't expect to) you pay me £80. Bet to be settled on the first ministry to be formed after the election.
If you believe there's absolutely no chance, then you're getting a great deal!
Thanks for your reply, I don't know why but I feel really tired tonight, actually I do know why ..... only 4 hours sleep last night did for me. So forgive me if I don't reply until the morning. It would be fun to have a punt on the GE with you, although this may not be ideal I'll let you know asap, but thanks anyway for your claimed generosity.
....... zzzzzzzz0 -
dr_spyn said:
Missing word round.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31051171
Whore - so much for Je suis Charlie.
Are you sure it isn't that terrible four-letter swear word: Tory ?
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It reminds me of the following exchange in court, where a witness saw an assault, and after the assault the attacker said to the victim "You deserved that you f*cking c*nt"MarkHopkins said:dr_spyn said:Missing word round.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31051171
Whore - so much for Je suis Charlie.
Are you sure it isn't that terrible four-letter swear word: Tory ?
So on the witness stand the witness said
"I saw the dependant, repeatedly kick and punch the victim several time, then as he walked away, he said to the victim "You deserved that you effing c*nt"
The judge then said, "I think you censored the wrong swear word there"0 -
Just wondered if anyone had seen this? Trouble in Bonn with Greece also threatening the southern flank. I am reminded of the Dambusters film where the Mohne dam is attacked and finally it fails after several hits. ( particularly if the Greeks have that well rumoured printing press)
Germany succumbs to Europe’s deflationary crisis
The euro area's economic titan has joined the rest of the currency bloc, and has entered deflation in January, for the first time since October 2009
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11376346/Germany-succumbs-to-Europes-deflationary-crisis.html0 -
Labour are doing everything they can think of to look tough on immigration without taking any steps that would actually limit immigration numbers. More border control agents, English in the NHS, electronic immigration checks, more inspectors for minimum wage. However, they still happily support a net quarter million coming here every year.Ishmael_X said:
Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”compouter2 said:The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.
Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."
Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".
That's hypocrisy.0 -
Reminds me of the old jokeTheScreamingEagles said:
It reminds me of the following exchange in court, where a witness saw an assault, and after the assault the attacker said to the victim "You deserved that you f*cking c*nt"MarkHopkins said:dr_spyn said:Missing word round.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31051171
Whore - so much for Je suis Charlie.
Are you sure it isn't that terrible four-letter swear word: Tory ?
So on the witness stand the witness said
"I saw the dependant, repeatedly kick and punch the victim several time, then as he walked away, he said to the victim "You deserved that you effing c*nt"
The judge then said, "I think you censored the wrong swear word there"
Judge "Before I pass sentence, do you have anything to say for yourself"
Defendant: "Fuck All"
Judge (to lawyer) "What did he say?!"
Lawyer "He said 'fuck all' your honour"
Judge "He said something, I saw his lips move!"0 -
The photo on Guido is clear - W h o r e - I saw the graffiti & the plodsters this morning. But whore appears to be on The BBC's banned list. I hope that they are not running scarred of militant eco loons.MarkHopkins said:dr_spyn said:Missing word round.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31051171
Whore - so much for Je suis Charlie.
Are you sure it isn't that terrible four-letter swear word: Tory ?
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Also the old joke about the Irish bloke telling his wife to close her legs but thats not for nowisam said:
Reminds me of the old jokeTheScreamingEagles said:
It reminds me of the following exchange in court, where a witness saw an assault, and after the assault the attacker said to the victim "You deserved that you f*cking c*nt"MarkHopkins said:dr_spyn said:Missing word round.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31051171
Whore - so much for Je suis Charlie.
Are you sure it isn't that terrible four-letter swear word: Tory ?
So on the witness stand the witness said
"I saw the dependant, repeatedly kick and punch the victim several time, then as he walked away, he said to the victim "You deserved that you effing c*nt"
The judge then said, "I think you censored the wrong swear word there"
Judge "Before I pass sentence, do you have anything to say for yourself"
Defendant: "Fuck All"
Judge (to lawyer) "What did he say?!"
Lawyer "He said 'fuck all' your honour"
Judge "He said something, I saw his lips move!"0 -
Plymouth inner city schoolboy goes on day trip to farm. In the evening his dad asks him what he saw.TheScreamingEagles said:
It reminds me of the following exchange in court, where a witness saw an assault, and after the assault the attacker said to the victim "You deserved that you f*cking c*nt"MarkHopkins said:dr_spyn said:Missing word round.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31051171
Whore - so much for Je suis Charlie.
Are you sure it isn't that terrible four-letter swear word: Tory ?
So on the witness stand the witness said
"I saw the dependant, repeatedly kick and punch the victim several time, then as he walked away, he said to the victim "You deserved that you effing c*nt"
The judge then said, "I think you censored the wrong swear word there"
"some sheep, some pigs and some fuckers."
"fuckers, boy?"
"yes, dad. Farmer called them 'eifers, but I knew what he meant".
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@MrHarryCole: Hear Labour were refusing all day to put anyone up on #Newsnight to talk about NHS. Have they managed to weaponise someone yet? Why so shy?0
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@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Another Labour/Tory tie marks a full week without a Labour lead: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%0
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@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Another Labour/Tory tie marks a full week without a Labour lead: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%0
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Thanks for that. You're a charming chappie, aren't you?nigel4england said:One for the appalling audreyanne:
http://news.sky.com/story/1416946/rotherham-victim-says-abusers-untouchable
You shouldn't equate not wishing to see pb.com hijacked day after day about this topic, with disinterest in, or complicity towards, the topic itself.
Actually, why am I even bothering?
Night.0 -
FPT
And with fracking, oil will stay below $50.rcs1000 said:
With oil below $50, there will be no fracking.Greengage said:'Fracking whore' becomes the 2015 election put-down of choice. See Guido Fawkes. All parties are in favour except Green. This hostility is driving the rise and rise of the Green Party, which is keeping Conservative in the game by slashing Lib Dem and Labour support. Should UKIP manage to awaken from their corporate sell-out over energy, they'd turn the tables. Here's a UKIP fracking whore trying to sound intelligent today. Fail.
http://tapnewswire.com/2015/01/ukips-energy-spokesman-conned-by-fracking-junket-to-usa/0 -
This poll is putting the combined Con/Lab share slightly higher than 2010, in contrast to most polls recently.TheScreamingEagles said:@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Another Labour/Tory tie marks a full week without a Labour lead: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%
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The requirement for a panel at the side of the page with the latest poll results grows0
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When was the last time a whole week of YouGovs went by with no Lab lead? OGH will know that one for sure.0
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LMAO
YOUNG British jihadis are losers who watch too much porn because they can’t pull women, an MI5 probe has found.
Tory Boris Johnson reveals our spy bosses’ blunt assessment in an exclusive interview today — and calls for the demystifying of UK extremists who join Islamic State.
The London Mayor, who was handed the probe’s findings by security officials, said: “If you look at all the psychological profiling about bombers, they typically will look at porn. They are literally w***ers. Severe onanists.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6308931/Boris-Johnson-Jihadists-are-just-a-bunch-of-ws.html?CMP=spklr-137372003-Editorial-TWITTER-Sun_Politics-20150129-Politics0 -
Germany's inflation phobia has led to their undoing. In a few years they'll learn that getting out of deflation is far, far harder than curbing inflation. The whole continent is going Japanese.Moses_ said:Just wondered if anyone had seen this? Trouble in Bonn with Greece also threatening the southern flank. I am reminded of the Dambusters film where the Mohne dam is attacked and finally it fails after several hits. ( particularly if the Greeks have that well rumoured printing press)
Germany succumbs to Europe’s deflationary crisis
The euro area's economic titan has joined the rest of the currency bloc, and has entered deflation in January, for the first time since October 2009
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11376346/Germany-succumbs-to-Europes-deflationary-crisis.html
And we think we should prioritise free trade with them over the rest of the world. I know I bang on about the same few things a lot but (a) they are important issues and (b) I'm right about them.0 -
I'd estimate there is now a 66% chance the Tories are actually in the lead...AndyJS said:
This poll is putting the combined Con/Lab share slightly higher than 2010, in contrast to most polls recently.TheScreamingEagles said:@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Another Labour/Tory tie marks a full week without a Labour lead: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%
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O/t and certainly totally unrelated to TSE's latest postings....
Isabel Hardman retweeted
BBC This Week@bbcthisweek·5 mins5 minutes ago
With no Diane tonight, there's a new goddess on #bbctw as @IsabelHardman will round up the headlines
The tweet appears to show her in a toga holding some round objects.0 -
I wonder what else they do because they cant pull women...TheScreamingEagles said:LMAO
YOUNG British jihadis are losers who watch too much porn because they can’t pull women, an MI5 probe has found.
Tory Boris Johnson reveals our spy bosses’ blunt assessment in an exclusive interview today — and calls for the demystifying of UK extremists who join Islamic State.
The London Mayor, who was handed the probe’s findings by security officials, said: “If you look at all the psychological profiling about bombers, they typically will look at porn. They are literally w***ers. Severe onanists.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6308931/Boris-Johnson-Jihadists-are-just-a-bunch-of-ws.html?CMP=spklr-137372003-Editorial-TWITTER-Sun_Politics-20150129-Politics0 -
I'm multi tasking, but I think this is the first time since Dec 2010 that YouGov have gone a week without a Lab lead.Scrapheap_as_was said:When was the last time a whole week of YouGovs went by with no Lab lead? OGH will know that one for sure.
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@GuideToPolitics: #newsnight opener is @BBCAllegra report on Labour splits. Says another former Lab Health Minister is now attacking @andyburnhammp
@PCollinsTimes: The Labour election campaign on health is already more about the definition of defeat than the likelihood of victory.
Where do labour go now then? Health was it; the one card they thought they could play...0 -
I wonder... if the SNP surge hadn't happened, would Labour still be ahead? Maybe, but not necessarily: Scotland only accounted for 8.5% of total GB votes in 2010.RodCrosby said:
I'd estimate there is now a 66% chance the Tories are actually in the lead...AndyJS said:
This poll is putting the combined Con/Lab share slightly higher than 2010, in contrast to most polls recently.TheScreamingEagles said:@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Another Labour/Tory tie marks a full week without a Labour lead: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%
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@michaelsavage: Blimey. Quite an evisceration of Labour health divisions on #Newsnight. As tough as anything you'll find in the "right-wing press".0
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Now that is far too much information..TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm multi tasking, but I think this is the first time since Dec 2010 that YouGov have gone a week without a Lab leader.Scrapheap_as_was said:When was the last time a whole week of YouGovs went by with no Lab lead? OGH will know that one for sure.
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I meant Lab lead.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Now that is far too much information..TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm multi tasking, but I think this is the first time since Dec 2010 that YouGov have gone a week without a Lab leader.Scrapheap_as_was said:When was the last time a whole week of YouGovs went by with no Lab lead? OGH will know that one for sure.
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A simple average puts the Conservatives 0.3% ahead, this week.0
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What did the Newsnight VT on Lab NHS policy say?
Lab MP squirming0 -
Very good for Con to be up on 34.
I think 34-34 is better for Con than 33-33.
Both are a tie but it means a stronger position vs LD (and UKIP).
Plus it indicates momentum in sense of people returning to Con.
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How does watching porn differentiate young Muslim men from other young men? Is it for "scoops" like this that we're paying MI5's bills?0
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Very good idea. Anthony does it over at UKPR but doesn't update quite as often as ideal. Think it's an excellent idea for a betting site like this.isam said:The requirement for a panel at the side of the page with the latest poll results grows
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agreedaudreyanne said:
Very good idea. Anthony does it over at UKPR but doesn't update quite as often as ideal. Think it's an excellent idea for a betting site like this.isam said:The requirement for a panel at the side of the page with the latest poll results grows
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Labour ought to be embarrassed.Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: Hear Labour were refusing all day to put anyone up on #Newsnight to talk about NHS. Have they managed to weaponise someone yet? Why so shy?
But its also amusing to read that the co editor of Guido Fawkes, went to Tonbridge School before reading politics at Edinburgh and has never had a 'proper job' in his still juvenile life. Remind me just what is the big hate for the the anti establishment figures that love Guido?
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Don Hale OBE @perryscope21 52m52 minutes ago
Ex-Cameron aide Patrick Rock faces trial over child abuse images http://gu.com/p/3qkvv/stw0 -
That story is nearly 7 months old.bigjohnowls said:Don Hale OBE @perryscope21 52m52 minutes ago
Ex-Cameron aide Patrick Rock faces trial over child abuse images http://gu.com/p/3qkvv/stw
The trial is next month I think?0 -
It'll be a disaster for ED, I'm tellling yer.bigjohnowls said:Don Hale OBE @perryscope21 52m52 minutes ago
Ex-Cameron aide Patrick Rock faces trial over child abuse images http://gu.com/p/3qkvv/stw0 -
Now now, everyone knows it's different when it comes to ones self. It's why Labour can get away with attack lines about out of touch Tory toffs slightly better than they should do given the similar backgrounds, educations and styles of the leaderships on all sides. Well known.Flightpath said:
Labour ought to be embarrassed.Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: Hear Labour were refusing all day to put anyone up on #Newsnight to talk about NHS. Have they managed to weaponise someone yet? Why so shy?
But its also amusing to read that the co editor of Guido Fawkes, went to Tonbridge School before reading politics at Edinburgh and has never had a 'proper job' in his still juvenile life. Remind me just what is the big hate for the the anti establishment figures that love Guido?0 -
UKPR polling average updated to yesterday and Lab sill have a 1% lead;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Don't think that would hold for another week like this week, though.0 -
Presumably Milburn (the 2nd worst SOS) behind LansleyScott_P said:@GuideToPolitics: #newsnight opener is @BBCAllegra report on Labour splits. Says another former Lab Health Minister is now attacking @andyburnhammp
@PCollinsTimes: The Labour election campaign on health is already more about the definition of defeat than the likelihood of victory.
Where do labour go now then? Health was it; the one card they thought they could play...0 -
I think the issue is the disconnect between the image they try to portray to their conservative muslim families, and the reality that they're just like other young men, with normal human instincts/desires that their culture/religion/community tries to repress.AndyJS said:How does watching porn differentiate young Muslim men from other young men? Is it for "scoops" like this that we're paying MI5's bills?
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Just taking YouGov on it's own though, it seem's that Crossover could have occurred on the graph?
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention0 -
To borrow a phrase from Boris.
Two complete wan**rs
https://twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/560422310944178176/photo/10 -
Labour supporters attacking their own.bigjohnowls said:To borrow a phrase from Boris.
Two complete wan**rs
twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/560422310944178176/photo/1
Just what I want to see three months before the election.
What makes it even funnier, it is on Labour's favoured turf, the NHS,
Keep up the good work.
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UKPR still gives high weightings for last week's ICM and Populus polls.GIN1138 said:Just taking YouGov on it's own though, it seem's that Crossover could have occurred on the graph?
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention
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@BBCAllegra: Fresh worries about Labour's NHS policy - this time from one of UK's most respected surgeons + former Lab minister http://t.co/IiOBMNRjds
@politicshome: Culture Secretary @sajidjavid on #bbcqt "If people outside want to know what would happen to the NHS if Labour ran it... look here [Wales]"0 -
It said too many ex-NHS staff retire at ridiculously early ages to ponce off the rest of us.bigjohnowls said:What did the Newsnight VT on Lab NHS policy say?
Lab MP squirming-1 -
However, Mr Le Grande said the preferred provider policy was "daft".Scott_P said:@BBCAllegra: Fresh worries about Labour's NHS policy - this time from one of UK's most respected surgeons + former Lab minister http://t.co/IiOBMNRjds
"It's protectionist, it's going to protect the inefficient. It's going to protect the incompetence, it's going to protect the low quality service," he said.
Well, quite. Only the most ideologically obsessed, or those conflicted because they are themselves part of the vested interests being thus protected, could possibly disagree with that.0 -
All square again with yougov, all to play for
Flightpath Good to see a fellow OT conquering the heights of ISIS
Jihadists watching porn surely marks them as typical of most young men, however as ISIS have flogged a man for watching it in Syria probably best to stay in their rooms than join Jihad
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/isis-militants-flog-man-watching-porn-syria-14814070 -
That's hilarious.Ishmael_X said:
Miliband 12/11/14 “Unlike the Tories, what we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip,”compouter2 said:The hypocricy from King Dan is fantastic. Check out his twitter page, where he was cheering on that other gobs***e Danczuk a few months back on the very same issue, who wants to go much further on immigration and is UKIP in all but name.
Farage 4/1/15 "If people don't speak English and they are dealing with English-speaking patients surely they shouldn't be employed in the first place."
Labour 26/1/15 "Labour will make sure that all frontline public sector staff can speak English".
That's hypocrisy.
So in 2015 Farage says immigrants should/must learn to speak English?
But back in May 2014 (ie last year) it was widely reported that Tory Culture Secretary Sajid Javid said Migrants to Britain should be able to speak English and ‘respect its laws and culture’. He said it was not good enough for migrants to live in the UK for up to 50 years without being able to speak English.
And its this current government which has introduced English language tests for non-EU citizens who want to settle in the UK. Its this governments Tory PM who said way back in Jan 2014 that benefits should be cut if claimants could not speak English and that the translation of leaflets into multiple languages would stop. Typically the LDs did not like the idea. Indeed when Cameron made his speech criticising the lefty policy of multiculturalism he said then that immigrants should integrate and learn English.
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Red comrade Hain going big love for the new communist regime in Athens on QT.0
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Unfortunately even Ed M is not stupid enough to fall into that trap.TGOHF said:Red comrade Hain going big love for the new communist regime in Athens on QT.
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I think you made that up.nigel4england said:
It said too many ex-NHS staff retire at ridiculously early ages to ponce off the rest of us.bigjohnowls said:What did the Newsnight VT on Lab NHS policy say?
Lab MP squirming
Trolling Law must be a worry for you
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