Is Diane Abbott right? – politicalbetting.com
Is Diane Abbott right? – politicalbetting.com
A third (33%) of 16-34s would consider backing a new left-wing party, dropping to just 9% among those aged 55+.And that’s not all… pic.twitter.com/Np52icKvvU
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Breakthrough is now easier
The next GE may be a spoiled ballot for me.
[Haven't read the header or comments yet]
Breaking news: A federal judge is giving Florida 60 days to clear out the immigrant detention facility called Alligator Alcatraz. The ruling forbids state officials from moving any other migrants there.
https://wapo.st/4mrLVJE
Some people on the left have argued politics is destined to become 'blame the migrants vs blame the rich'.
Fair or not, this binary turns out to be a surprisingly useful question for dividing the country right down the middle!
Look at the generational splits, madness.
https://bsky.app/profile/steveakehurst.bsky.social/post/3lwwgjpn54c2t
Still, easier to do that than take responsibility ourselves.
It's all the fault of Elon Musk.
https://x.com/spectator/status/1958781285930840204
But it also has a great redeeming feature. When you blame The Other you exculpate yourself of any responsibility for the ills of the world while simultaneously attributing them to someone else. And then you can focus pointlessly attacking The Other and feeling morally superior about doing it, while the actual problems (and any solutions) remain unattended.
But (unfortunately) it's incredibly effective electoral politics.
CorbynSultana politics isn't mine. But there is clearly a chunk of the electorate holding similar views and why shouldn't they have a party to represent them?
Best avoid France in September, looks like everyone is on strike
https://www.lefigaro.fr/social/sncf-taxis-pharmacies-hopitaux-ces-secteurs-qui-appellent-a-la-greve-en-septembre-20250822
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Nigel_Farage
Farage
popularity 37%
disliked 40%
neutral 19%
And then we get people resigning the party and keeping their MSP list places. OTOH those who are *not* elected are not elected cos the voters don't like their faces enough. So perhaps there is some sense in it.
(ISTR it's happened a few times already with various parties or none at all benefiting.)
Ah, better to inform us, here is his letter:
https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,jeremy-balfour-msp-quits-reactionary-scottish-conservatives
Edit: Which also noitably accuses the party of only being interested in the rural areas and being anti the urban areas.
In any event, tacking left will do nothing to sort the economy (nor will holding a leadership election), and they're arguably as likely to lose votes in the centre as gain them on the left.
I in fact did vote Labour because I expected, not necessarily bland politics but certainly a government with a general sense of renewal and restructuring that would likely do quite a few important things “under the bonnet” to help fix some of the more egregious problems. I am not a left wing voter, and I wouldn’t vote for a Corbyn led party or a Labour Party that moved measurably further to the left. But, now that it feels that Labour have failed to rise to the challenge on most measures and now seem to offer bland managed decline, I just don’t think the public are in the mood for a centrist party claiming it has the solutions at the moment. It wants the solutions to be driven by those with more solidly left/right views.
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/sp/?id=2023-10-04.17.0&s=Scottish+Welfare+find
Company leaders sometimes call in management consultants to give them internal leverage to do things they knew they needed to do already.
On the same basis maybe the UK govt should call in the IMF, to help it make the spending cuts and tax rises it already knows it needs to do?
https://x.com/s8mb/status/1958533920586174537
By next year anorak attention starts shifting to the next election.
Trump: One of the things we are going to be redoing as your parks. I know more about grass than any human being anywhere in the world. We are going to be regrassing your parks, new sprinklers systems. It will look like Trump national golf club.
Grass has a life. You know that ? ..
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1958647231701283208
My own position doesn't matter much as I'm 75, but it's fairly widely shared among members. We didn't join in order NOT to be something else.
If Labour do produce the budget they should have done last year, then they might still be able to right themselves, but I am doubtful they can do it. Reeves is not savvy enough of a political operator or sure-footed enough as a communicator. Starmer is the same, and possesses a feebleness in terms of messaging and setting the political direction.
Nothing suggests to me we are heading for a restructuring, radical budget. It looks like they’ll instead be leaving the main fiscal levers untouched and the broad fiscal network unreformed, just with tweaks to rates etc here and there. They can’t be too radical, because to properly restructure they need to introduce cuts alongside tax changes, and their backbenchers won’t let them.
Would a fair précis of the debate be that despite child poverty being less in Scotland than in the rUK, the SNP are to be excoriated for not eradicating it entirely?
Otherwise as Ipsos showed the main impact of Your Party will be to take Green Party votes unless they can agree a pact so only one stands per constituency
The market stayed rational longer than she could remain politically solvent.
I'd expect a large minority, may be even a majority, would grow to support a govt that was more competent in providing health, policing, transport, energy and justice services but it takes time to get the delivery of that flowing.
Couldn't give a toss about Corbyn and Sultana, but McDonnell and some others on the left could contribute and would be absolutely delighted if Glasman and his blue "Labour" Trumpism was permanently excluded.
Case in point, yesterday government borrowing came in below expectations but the gilt yield didn’t fall, in fact it slightly rose over the day. Case in point 2, several European countries have higher debt:gdp ratios than us, lower GDP growth, and also higher current deficits, as of course does the US, but their bond yields are lower.
If you are investing in a fixed term bond at a fixed rate and you expect inflation and depreciation of the currency, you’ll demand a higher yield even if there is zero default risk.
If nothing changes by the new year, very focussed attention needs to be given to Reform's actual, as opposed to unicorn, plan for governing. Questions include the overall strategy for spend, tax, debt and deficit, and the reach of state activity. Total managed Expenditure must be X% of GDP, what number is X?
Truss’ problem was that she tried to do too much at the wrong stage of the political cycle and that there did not appear to have been any long term planning or forecasting to back up the fiscal shift - it was just cut the taxes and hope. Again I come back to the political cycle here, because it’s important - Truss took office post Covid, in the throes of the Ukrainian inflationary spike and energy crisis, with no mandate from the wider electorate and with only 2 years to go until a GE. Whatever merit or not you put on her tax policies, it was simply an unrealistic political backdrop to be introducing them in.
Starmer's line of "Farage is right, don't vote for him" is the shortest route to political oblivion conceivable. He is the Ramsey MacDonald of the 21st Century.
The commentary sometimes seem to assume that all those on the left have no problem with this and want an open door policy . This couldn’t be further from the truth .
I tend to think in general the majority of the British public are fair and would accept genuine asylum seekers especially families , what they don’t want is a free for all .
Life chances are often a geographical lottery of birth , of course people want a better life but unless the Labour government get to grips with the boats it could unleash even darker forces .
I think you're right. It can only be Labour with a non Tory leader but I wouldn't get excited about Corbyn. He's just a wrecker.
The bond market is made up of humans, and so while there are technical aspects fundamentally it's a matter of human emotion, which means it's also something affected by the quality of leadership.
Starmer/Reeves simply don't inspire confidence.
I think that Britain needs a few radical changes, and I'd probably be quite excited if some of these were introduced at the next budget. But are Starmer/Reeves capable of selling and implementing radical change?
I have my doubts, and I could understand if the bond market did too.
So it will accept change and radical change, but only on the usual conditions and at the price set by markets not by the change makers.
It's better than confessing your sins. You do that, you still can sin. You build a Blame God - that proves you are perfect. You just have to keep on Hating the Blame God.
*Rudkin is our Director of Football and blamed for overpaid flops on far too high wages.
He also thought this wasn't a problem as they would never hold actual power within the party and so couldn't possibly recontaminate it.
*) To chase Reform down into the reactionary pit.
*) To choose a more practical position to the problems that face the country.
The problems with the former are that Reform are kings of that particular hill, and trying to beat them will only cause both of them to descend further into the pit as they become more extremist. That will not be good for the country.
The problems with the latter is that it is hard, and you need to sell it to a public that is intrigued by Reform's stupid, but easy, 'answers' to the problems that face them.
If Livingstone had lost he would have stayed in the political wilderness for good.
Mornin' All!
Their problem is that they're obsessed with Palestine and they need to be obsessed with social justice instead.
Its undeniable that Scotland has delivered things that rUK has not. But its also undeniable that the government is tired, lacking in ideas, and ignores large chunks of the country. The next Holyrood election will be a change election, but it isn't yet clear if we're regenerating into David Tennant again or we get an OMG that's Billie Piper result...
Supporters of the mighty Rangers were wanting rid of their manager this week after only 8 matches which might be a record. They’ll still turn out every match even if they walk out at half time when their team’s two down at the break.
1. Small boat crossings reduced to fairly close to nil.
2. An end to the fighting in Gaza.
3. A stable, and growing, economy.
4. Significant improvements to the NHS.
Despite all the gloom and doom, and the rabid mood of the public and the press at the moment, it's not inconceivable that all four will make sufficient progress to give Labour a fair chance at the next GE.
Guardian business blog
But first, here's an interesting article by Nick Clegg in the Atlantic from yesterday:
https://bsky.app/profile/theatlantic.com/post/3lwwzftmjy72q
The other thing that’s inevitable is that there will be another unexpected global or UK crisis between now and the election: a financial crash, another pandemic, a new war, a massive natural disaster, a big scandal, a US civil war. Something will happen to shift the narrative.
We see it in S. Africa where the ANC isn't quite sure what it is, and in India where eventually Congress fell apart.
Right now its like the Scottish Tories are losing on points in the 7th round to the invisible man. Couldn't name you a single Reform policltician/candidate based in Scotland
For the likes of Mr Balfour, polling reality is now hitting them
On the other hand, a political leader has a duty or moral responsibility to deliver what they promised.
I am a LibDem but I have no duty to support them.
In a Lab/Con or Lab/Ref marginal I would vote Lab.
In a Lab/Corbyn marginal I would vote Corbyn.
I am very disapppointed in Starmer. He is ultra timid and Tory Lite.
He should nationalise water.
Join the Customs Union.
Cut arms supplies to Israel - or better still, lead a South African style boycott.
Stop buttering up Trump and help create an independent European defence force.
Put up income tax, stop protecting wealthy pensioners, reintroduce SureStart etc.
I could go on.
My political slogan is "Do the right thing and sod the consequences". I think that is appealing.