It's about time he left for the Tories. Wasn't he one of the gang of three that was on the cusp of crossing the floor years ago?
Actually, Stringer is more likely to go to Reform than the Tories - he could be the first Labour to Reform defector. Very pro-Brexit, anti-immigration, climate change denier. He and Farage would get on like a house on fire.
Reform are canabilising the Brexit coalition very effectively.
Of that 52%,winning coalition, they already have 30% solidly behind them. Of the 22% left, it doesn't look unreasonable for them to take a further 5 to 10%.
I'm suprised at how well Reform SEEM to be performing in Scotland and Wales, and they have the support of the NI Unionists too ofcourse.
It is looking like an election winning coalition.
All points acknowledged that a lot can happen between now and 2029 but equally it's not hard to see things getting worse for Labour on the economy, immigration and crime.
The by-election in Barrhead in East Renfrewshire will be a good indication of Reform progress. It’s the type of seat where they can expect to perform averagely well. Better than in the west end of Glasgow, but worse than in North Lanarkshire.
Doncaster Bentley will likely stay Reform although turnout will be very low.
It is not a great place - still lots of terraced houses in poor condition from the old mining community and also vulnerable to flooding.
The BNP when they were a thing used to get a fair proportion of the vote but never got near to winning the seat and it remained solid Labour for many years.
Reform have obviously gathered a coalition of the disenchanted (and to be fair, there is much to be disenchanted about).
Why they didn't put up a candidate at the general election [in Doncaster North, vs Ed Miliband] I have no idea.
Given Reforms travails defending seats from May i wondered if they might struggle but the defeated May Lab candidate is standing as an indy against the official Lab pick so it ought to be a comfy hold as nobody else looks close.
The Tories need one of the Surrey CC seats to retain control of Surrey (or if not a third ward coming up in a few weeks)
The Gwynedd seat should be interesting. I holidayed there about 40 or 45 years ago
Although there has always been significant racism in Britain, over the last year it seems to have changed from covert racism to overt racism. Although it’s better out in the open, it is becoming acceptable, which is not good.
There's never been less racism in Britain than now.
I disagree.
My experiences are getting worse.
Recently asked by a stranger if I came over on a boat.
Out of curiosity are you a person of colour?
To which I hope you replied, "Yes, 120m SunSeeker, from the Med, last Saturday. Weather was too nice to use the prvate jet"?
(Seriously, I have friends in quite different parts of the UK that have reported similar - for most of my life it's been obvious that things in that regard were better than ten years previously; I'm no longer sure that we're much ahead of where we were in, say, 2015)
I have to say, this is one of the few areas where I'm aligned with the Trump administration. We should just ignore all of those international treaties and ICJ nonsense and get on with deporting illegals and criminals. It's all a load of nonsense anyway.
Why do I think we will be having the same conversation about large numbers of asylum claims, small boats and high levels of legal immigration in 4 years time?
Although there has always been significant racism in Britain, over the last year it seems to have changed from covert racism to overt racism. Although it’s better out in the open, it is becoming acceptable, which is not good.
There's never been less racism in Britain than now.
I disagree.
My experiences are getting worse.
Recently asked by a stranger if I came over on a boat.
Out of curiosity are you a person of colour?
That's very sad to hear TSE. I think it's an inevitable consequence of uncontrolled and very visible illegal immigration. People are fed up of having their money and resources spent on these freeloaders and it's starting to boil over.
Labour really need to lance the boil and bring back a mass deportations scheme for boat arrivals. Do whatever it takes to get planeloads of new arrivals on the way to a third country and also remove the ones who are already here. If it upsets a few liberals and they need to enable it with very tough laws that override the courts and international treaties then that's what it will take.
This has been going on too long and just as with the OSA, it's law abiding citizens who will bear that brunt of the fallout, including any citizens who look like they are from an Asian or African country. The blame lies squarely on the politicians for ignoring the public on the subject of immigration for the past 20 years.
No, racism is the fault of racists. Stop making excuses for these scrotes.
Hearing Polly Toynbee, Queen of Correct Left-Wing Thought, telling the BBC that the UK should suspend/renegotiate the Refugee Convention Amazing Politics are in flux as never before"
Next, we'll have @bondegezou arguing for repatriation
That surprised me, too.
She says it should only be considered if all/most European countries agree to it together.
Haven't they been discussing just this for the last decade or more ? Any redraft of the convention would take many years.
Just leave and set up a new one. You'd get a few follow, perhaps a lot.
Countries distant from current conflict zones, like the UK, Ireland and Norway, have rather different views on how to handle refugees than those who are closer, like Greece and Italy. It's difficult to find something that everyone supports.
We are an independent sovereign democracy.
Pass a law setting our own rules. If the Italians don't like it, they can pass their own law with their rules.
Why do I think we will be having the same conversation about large numbers of asylum claims, small boats and high levels of legal immigration in 4 years time?
We've been having the conversation for the entire history of PB.com, pretty much.
Blair had a crackdown on asylum seekers in ~1999 ish.
We can't say that the politicians have ignored the issue, but they have over-promised and under-delivered.
Revealed: Israeli military’s own data indicates civilian death rate of 83% in Gaza war
Figures from classified IDF database listed 8,900 named fighters as dead or probably dead in May, as overall death toll reached 53,000
Figures from a classified Israeli military intelligence database indicate five out of six Palestinians killed by Israeli forces in Gaza have been civilians, an extreme rate of slaughter rarely matched in recent decades of warfare.
As of May, 19 months into the war, Israeli intelligence officials listed 8,900 named fighters from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad as dead or “probably dead”, a joint investigation by the Guardian, the Israeli-Palestinian publication +972 Magazine and the Hebrew-language outlet Local Call has found.
At that time 53,000 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli attacks, according to health authorities in Gaza, a toll that included combatants and civilians. Fighters named in the Israeli military intelligence database accounted for just 17% of the total, which indicates that 83% of the dead were civilians.
That apparent ratio of civilians to combatants among the dead is extremely high for modern warfare, even compared with conflicts notorious for indiscriminate killing, including the Syrian and Sudanese civil wars.
“That proportion of civilians among those killed would be unusually high, particularly as it has been going on for such a long time,” said Therése Pettersson from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, which tracks civilian casualties worldwide. “If you single out a particular city or battle in another conflict, you could find similar rates, but very rarely overall.”
In global conflicts tracked by UCDP since 1989, civilians made up a greater proportion of the dead only in Srebenica – although not the Bosnian war overall – in the Rwandan genocide, and during the Russian siege of Mariupol in 2022, Pettersson said.
I have to say, this is one of the few areas where I'm aligned with the Trump administration. We should just ignore all of those international treaties and ICJ nonsense and get on with deporting illegals and criminals. It's all a load of nonsense anyway.
The ICJ and ECtHR are antidemocratic abominations that should be abolished/left.
I don't agree with Trump, or your views on migration and remigration but I am prepared to vote against you in an election while respecting democracy.
If you and your views win an election, they should be implemented. That is democracy.
There should be no international courts of any kind.
Although there has always been significant racism in Britain, over the last year it seems to have changed from covert racism to overt racism. Although it’s better out in the open, it is becoming acceptable, which is not good.
There's never been less racism in Britain than now.
I disagree.
My experiences are getting worse.
Recently asked by a stranger if I came over on a boat.
Out of curiosity are you a person of colour?
To which I hope you replied, "Yes, 120m SunSeeker, from the Med, last Saturday. Weather was too nice to use the prvate jet"?
(Seriously, I have friends in quite different parts of the UK that have reported similar - for most of my life it's been obvious that things in that regard were better than ten years previously; I'm no longer sure that we're much ahead of where we were in, say, 2015)
Revealed: Israeli military’s own data indicates civilian death rate of 83% in Gaza war
Figures from classified IDF database listed 8,900 named fighters as dead or probably dead in May, as overall death toll reached 53,000
Figures from a classified Israeli military intelligence database indicate five out of six Palestinians killed by Israeli forces in Gaza have been civilians, an extreme rate of slaughter rarely matched in recent decades of warfare.
As of May, 19 months into the war, Israeli intelligence officials listed 8,900 named fighters from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad as dead or “probably dead”, a joint investigation by the Guardian, the Israeli-Palestinian publication +972 Magazine and the Hebrew-language outlet Local Call has found.
At that time 53,000 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli attacks, according to health authorities in Gaza, a toll that included combatants and civilians. Fighters named in the Israeli military intelligence database accounted for just 17% of the total, which indicates that 83% of the dead were civilians.
That apparent ratio of civilians to combatants among the dead is extremely high for modern warfare, even compared with conflicts notorious for indiscriminate killing, including the Syrian and Sudanese civil wars.
“That proportion of civilians among those killed would be unusually high, particularly as it has been going on for such a long time,” said Therése Pettersson from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, which tracks civilian casualties worldwide. “If you single out a particular city or battle in another conflict, you could find similar rates, but very rarely overall.”
In global conflicts tracked by UCDP since 1989, civilians made up a greater proportion of the dead only in Srebenica – although not the Bosnian war overall – in the Rwandan genocide, and during the Russian siege of Mariupol in 2022, Pettersson said.
I wouldn't expect the IDF to be able to name every single Hamas fighter they had killed, so you can't conclude that everyone killed who isn't named is a civilian.
Although there has always been significant racism in Britain, over the last year it seems to have changed from covert racism to overt racism. Although it’s better out in the open, it is becoming acceptable, which is not good.
There's never been less racism in Britain than now.
I disagree.
My experiences are getting worse.
Recently asked by a stranger if I came over on a boat.
Out of curiosity are you a person of colour?
That's very sad to hear TSE. I think it's an inevitable consequence of uncontrolled and very visible illegal immigration. People are fed up of having their money and resources spent on these freeloaders and it's starting to boil over.
Labour really need to lance the boil and bring back a mass deportations scheme for boat arrivals. Do whatever it takes to get planeloads of new arrivals on the way to a third country and also remove the ones who are already here. If it upsets a few liberals and they need to enable it with very tough laws that override the courts and international treaties then that's what it will take.
This has been going on too long and just as with the OSA, it's law abiding citizens who will bear that brunt of the fallout, including any citizens who look like they are from an Asian or African country. The blame lies squarely on the politicians for ignoring the public on the subject of immigration for the past 20 years.
No, racism is the fault of racists. Stop making excuses for these scrotes.
And this is why Reform are going to win a majority in 2028/29. You think admonishing or locking up a few people will solve the problem. It doesn't. The cause is uncontrolled illegal immigration, while that is still going no amount of locking up ordinary people is going to stop them from wanting fewer people who don't look like them in the country.
The UK is one of the best places in the world to be a foreign looking person, however, that is now being stretched to breaking point because the state just seems incapable of keeping us safe from illegal immigrants.
You keep ignoring the causes and try to treat the symptoms and you keep on losing. I just hope that when Reform arrives they are sensible and don't try and attack already naturalised citizen rights. I don't think they will but we are heading towards a huge over correction on immigration because of the last few years.
Although there has always been significant racism in Britain, over the last year it seems to have changed from covert racism to overt racism. Although it’s better out in the open, it is becoming acceptable, which is not good.
There's never been less racism in Britain than now.
I disagree.
My experiences are getting worse.
Recently asked by a stranger if I came over on a boat.
Out of curiosity are you a person of colour?
That's very sad to hear TSE. I think it's an inevitable consequence of uncontrolled and very visible illegal immigration. People are fed up of having their money and resources spent on these freeloaders and it's starting to boil over.
Labour really need to lance the boil and bring back a mass deportations scheme for boat arrivals. Do whatever it takes to get planeloads of new arrivals on the way to a third country and also remove the ones who are already here. If it upsets a few liberals and they need to enable it with very tough laws that override the courts and international treaties then that's what it will take.
This has been going on too long and just as with the OSA, it's law abiding citizens who will bear that brunt of the fallout, including any citizens who look like they are from an Asian or African country. The blame lies squarely on the politicians for ignoring the public on the subject of immigration for the past 20 years.
No, racism is the fault of racists. Stop making excuses for these scrotes.
And this is why Reform are going to win a majority in 2028/29. You think admonishing or locking up a few people will solve the problem. It doesn't. The cause is uncontrolled illegal immigration, while that is still going no amount of locking up ordinary people is going to stop them from wanting fewer people who don't look like them in the country.
The UK is one of the best places in the world to be a foreign looking person, however, that is now being stretched to breaking point because the state just seems incapable of keeping us safe from illegal immigrants.
You keep ignoring the causes and try to treat the symptoms and you keep on losing. I just hope that when Reform arrives they are sensible and don't try and attack already naturalised citizen rights. I don't think they will but we are heading towards a huge over correction on immigration because of the last few years.
To be certain of a majority of a majority Reform need to be on 40-45%+ not roughly 30%, especially given the combined LD and Green vote is over 20% and offers Labour plenty of opportunity to squeeze them for tactical votes.
Whether the deal with France and the High Court decision leads to a decline in illegal migration I agree is still open for discussion
Revealed: Israeli military’s own data indicates civilian death rate of 83% in Gaza war
Figures from classified IDF database listed 8,900 named fighters as dead or probably dead in May, as overall death toll reached 53,000
Figures from a classified Israeli military intelligence database indicate five out of six Palestinians killed by Israeli forces in Gaza have been civilians, an extreme rate of slaughter rarely matched in recent decades of warfare.
As of May, 19 months into the war, Israeli intelligence officials listed 8,900 named fighters from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad as dead or “probably dead”, a joint investigation by the Guardian, the Israeli-Palestinian publication +972 Magazine and the Hebrew-language outlet Local Call has found.
At that time 53,000 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli attacks, according to health authorities in Gaza, a toll that included combatants and civilians. Fighters named in the Israeli military intelligence database accounted for just 17% of the total, which indicates that 83% of the dead were civilians.
That apparent ratio of civilians to combatants among the dead is extremely high for modern warfare, even compared with conflicts notorious for indiscriminate killing, including the Syrian and Sudanese civil wars.
“That proportion of civilians among those killed would be unusually high, particularly as it has been going on for such a long time,” said Therése Pettersson from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, which tracks civilian casualties worldwide. “If you single out a particular city or battle in another conflict, you could find similar rates, but very rarely overall.”
In global conflicts tracked by UCDP since 1989, civilians made up a greater proportion of the dead only in Srebenica – although not the Bosnian war overall – in the Rwandan genocide, and during the Russian siege of Mariupol in 2022, Pettersson said.
I wouldn't expect the IDF to be able to name every single Hamas fighter they had killed, so you can't conclude that everyone killed who isn't named is a civilian.
Well said. What a stupid report.
Plus the number of civilians killed would be zero if Hamas surrenders unconditionally and releases the hostages.
We need to stop spending money on hotels and instead spend more money on judges and lawyers to get through the backlog and either (a) permit asylum so they can start working, or (b) deport.
Isn't that essentially this government's policy ?
Yes. They seem to have been steadily churning through the backlog left them by the incompetence of the Conservative government. Not that you’d ever learn this from hysterical DM headlines.
Sometimes competent government is just getting the job that’s in front of you done, to the best of the adminstration’s ability.
That’s not going to be enough to draw the sting of the immigration figures by the next GE I suspect, because (again) the previous government f’ed things up so completely that the population has lost all trust in any current government & the continued drumbeat of headlines only reinforces that loss of faith. But Labour appear to be doing the right thing here at least.
Labour also abandoned the Rwanda plan for the boat people, which was arguably working (hence the Irish shrieking about it) and replaced it with their brilliant new plan to SMASH THE GANGS
How's that going?
The Rwanda Plan would never have worked - the agreed numbers were, what, in the low 100s? When you have 10,000s a year crossing the Channel, a 1% chance of being sent to Rwanda is no deterrant at all.
If the Conservatives had credibly set up a program to move all Channel crossers into Rwanda, then I would agree with you - that would probably have had the desired effect, if they were actually capable of mopping up all of them. Once established you’d then only need a small program “pour encourager les autres”.
But the program as actually established & funded was pitifully small compared to the size required for it to ever actually work. The Conservatives were not a serious government & the Rwanda program is just another exemplar of their fundamental failure to actually govern effectively. You either do something like that properly or not at all if you want it to be effective. The actual program as implemented was guaranteed to be woefully ineffective, therefore we must conclude that the government was not actually interested in making it succeed - they just wanted the headlines that would give the impression that they were doing something until the next GE rolled around.
Missing the point entirely.
The Rwanda plan could have worked, it worked in Australia where it was done.
The numbers though would have to, and could, change.
Trialling a new policy the numbers are generally low. Labor's Rudd in Australia changed their Rwanda equivalent from low numbers to everyone once the policy was operational.
The biggest hurdle is on our side, not their side, that we via our courts etc don't want to send people. Rwanda will take as many as we pay them for, and initially there's no point paying for more than small numbers but if we can sort out our side, that can change.
Never judge a policy based on trial numbers. Object to its ethics, sure, but it could and has worked elsewhere.
They would have had to have plans in place to radically increase the scope of the Rwanda plan after setting it up.
They didn’t have those plans, nor could we have afforded them at the prices the Rwandan’s were charging us IIRC. Ergo the Conservatives were not serious. I agree entirely that they could have made something like the Rwanda plan work, but they don’t appear to have wanted i to work - they just wanted it to exist so they could point to it whenever anyone asked them what they were doing about the boats.
How do you know they didn't have those plans?
Once its operational it only takes an agreement to give more money to expand it to everyone, which is exactly what Labor's policy was under Rudd.
Rudd's policy worked. No reason it couldn't work here.
The issue is the ethics, and saying we don't want to do that. That's on our side.
But there is absolutely no reason to give Rwanda more money for them to take everyone, as Rudd agreed with PNG, until the hurdles on our side have been cleared.
To say it can't work is folly. To say its unethical and you don't want to work, that has principles.
The Conservative government was never going to spend £10billion on this project, but that’s what they’d have to spend to make it work - you have to credibly be able to take the majority of the Channel crossers, otherwise your project is just another roadblock to overcome.
That’s why Rwanda was the project of an unserious government: They had to stuff the Rwandan’s mouths with silver (to paraphrase Aneurin Bevan) to get them to take 300 people because nobody else would take our money & the entire project was clearly not economically possible given that constraint.
If they could credibly have put all the channel boat crossers through this scheme then I agree, it might have worked. But we couldn’t afford it & so it was never going to work. Going ahead with it, given that inevitability, shows that they only cared about headlines, not doing things that might actually work. (Stopping the processing of migrants just to stuff up the next government & make things worse in the short term so that they could claim to be the ones with a plan at the GE was also the sign of a deeply unserious government but that’s a separate problem.)
Complete fallacy here.
Two issues, one is the costs change, paying for the first of anything costs much more than paying in scale.
Second issue is that numbers change. If everyone who crossed the channel knew they were guaranteed to go to Rwanda, the numbers coming would be ~0 anyway.
Object based on principles or ethics, but your numbers arguments are complete bullshit.
No, that number I quoted /only/ included the costs the Rwandans were charging us /per/ asylum seeker. It included none of the fixed costs, nor the bonus £120million we were going to pay them once we hit 300 migrants transferred.
Look at the migration watch figures: The costs are eye-watering & if you thing the Rwandan government would have charged us less once they realised we were willing to pay these vast sums & had no other government willing to take them I have a few bridges to sell you.
So do you think that if the government for one month deported all boat arrivals to Rwanda immediately and without recourse to return to the country that any more would continue to arrive?
Even with just the threat of being deported to Rwanda there was a pretty big deterrent.
If the government had fronted up the money to do that, then yes, it might have worked. As I’ve already said, multiple times.
The fact that they weren’t willing to do so shows exactly how unserious the last government was - they wasted 3/4 of a £billion of our money on a project that was bound to fail because they weren’t willing to follow through with what was actually required to make it work.
We would have been better off just making the Rwandan government a gift of half a billion or so. They would probably have made better use of it.
But then it wouldn't have cost £10bn, would it. Maybe closer to £1bn to forcibly remove all boat arrivals for a few weeks, even up to a couple of months and then watch as they become a trickle so the ongoing cost is close to nothing.
The Tory government was useless in that it didn't use the power it had to push through all enabling laws, override the HRA, override the courts and override any international blocking treaties with primary legislation, dare the courts to strike it down, dare the UN to try and stop it and if necessary use our veto to shut them up and just plain ignore the ECHR or any other international courts. It didn't have the cojones to do any of those and I don't know if Reform will either, though I think they will definitely get closer to it.
You may disagree with the method of removing them but removing them is necessary, the current situation is intolerable and good on the councils for fighting back. Having read the first hand accounts of what's been happening around those hotels I'm shocked that the protests haven't been going on for much longer.
The last Tory government passed primary legislation to overrule the British courts. They did all the legislative steps required. They said that a flight would leave the day after the election if they were re-elected.
So why not send flights before the election, see the boats stop over the summer, and hold an autumn election, which, according to some, they would then win at a canter?
I suspect the answer is that they knew it wouldn't work, had always known it wouldn't work, and the only value of the Rwanda scheme was to have Labour oppose it.
They didn't do it ruthlessly enough and they didn't have a solution on overriding the HRA which bound the government to nonsense ECHR rulings. They needed to either repeal it or override it in new legislation and specifically say in cases of deportations the HRA is suspended, use the big stick of primary legislation and tell the judges to get back in their box.
The Tories were just too weak willed, they have lost more support than Labour because of the boats and because of uncontrolled immigration. They're down to about 20 points in the polls, Reform have eaten them alive so if they were somehow holding back for electoral gain it's completely backfired on them.
Although there has always been significant racism in Britain, over the last year it seems to have changed from covert racism to overt racism. Although it’s better out in the open, it is becoming acceptable, which is not good.
There's never been less racism in Britain than now.
I disagree.
My experiences are getting worse.
Recently asked by a stranger if I came over on a boat.
Out of curiosity are you a person of colour?
That's very sad to hear TSE. I think it's an inevitable consequence of uncontrolled and very visible illegal immigration. People are fed up of having their money and resources spent on these freeloaders and it's starting to boil over.
Labour really need to lance the boil and bring back a mass deportations scheme for boat arrivals. Do whatever it takes to get planeloads of new arrivals on the way to a third country and also remove the ones who are already here. If it upsets a few liberals and they need to enable it with very tough laws that override the courts and international treaties then that's what it will take.
This has been going on too long and just as with the OSA, it's law abiding citizens who will bear that brunt of the fallout, including any citizens who look like they are from an Asian or African country. The blame lies squarely on the politicians for ignoring the public on the subject of immigration for the past 20 years.
No, racism is the fault of racists. Stop making excuses for these scrotes.
And this is why Reform are going to win a majority in 2028/29. You think admonishing or locking up a few people will solve the problem. It doesn't. The cause is uncontrolled illegal immigration, while that is still going no amount of locking up ordinary people is going to stop them from wanting fewer people who don't look like them in the country.
The UK is one of the best places in the world to be a foreign looking person, however, that is now being stretched to breaking point because the state just seems incapable of keeping us safe from illegal immigrants.
You keep ignoring the causes and try to treat the symptoms and you keep on losing. I just hope that when Reform arrives they are sensible and don't try and attack already naturalised citizen rights. I don't think they will but we are heading towards a huge over correction on immigration because of the last few years.
To be certain of a majority of a majority Reform need to be on 40-45%+ not roughly 30%, especially given the combined LD and Green vote is over 20% and offers Labour plenty of opportunity to squeeze them for tactical votes.
Whether the deal with France and the High Court decision leads to a decline in illegal migration I agree is still open for discussion
To be certain of a majority Reform needs 326 Returning Officers to declare they've been duly elected.
Depends on who is doing the stats. Guardian says grade 7 or above have risen. BBC draws the line at 4.
Perhaps a senior LibDem can help!
Both are true but grade 4 or above is probably most important as that is what is seen as a pass, grade 7 or above is for the more academic anyway
What's a pass anyway? If it means anything, it's what opens the next door. A grade 1 still shows some achievement, sometimes a grade 8 isn't enough.
As for the grade 7/4, thing, it is a bit of a worry. More students flying is nice, but more falling off the bottom of what is a useful grade isn't. Fear it's an ongoing COVID effect (this cohort had lockdowns in years 6 and 7). For some the experience was managed-to-positive, but for others, it wasn't.
For most apprenticeships, office jobs etc you will need at least grade 4+ passes in English and Maths
Revealed: Israeli military’s own data indicates civilian death rate of 83% in Gaza war
Figures from classified IDF database listed 8,900 named fighters as dead or probably dead in May, as overall death toll reached 53,000
Figures from a classified Israeli military intelligence database indicate five out of six Palestinians killed by Israeli forces in Gaza have been civilians, an extreme rate of slaughter rarely matched in recent decades of warfare.
As of May, 19 months into the war, Israeli intelligence officials listed 8,900 named fighters from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad as dead or “probably dead”, a joint investigation by the Guardian, the Israeli-Palestinian publication +972 Magazine and the Hebrew-language outlet Local Call has found.
At that time 53,000 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli attacks, according to health authorities in Gaza, a toll that included combatants and civilians. Fighters named in the Israeli military intelligence database accounted for just 17% of the total, which indicates that 83% of the dead were civilians.
That apparent ratio of civilians to combatants among the dead is extremely high for modern warfare, even compared with conflicts notorious for indiscriminate killing, including the Syrian and Sudanese civil wars.
“That proportion of civilians among those killed would be unusually high, particularly as it has been going on for such a long time,” said Therése Pettersson from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, which tracks civilian casualties worldwide. “If you single out a particular city or battle in another conflict, you could find similar rates, but very rarely overall.”
In global conflicts tracked by UCDP since 1989, civilians made up a greater proportion of the dead only in Srebenica – although not the Bosnian war overall – in the Rwandan genocide, and during the Russian siege of Mariupol in 2022, Pettersson said.
I wouldn't expect the IDF to be able to name every single Hamas fighter they had killed, so you can't conclude that everyone killed who isn't named is a civilian.
Well said. What a stupid report.
Plus the number of civilians killed would be zero if Hamas surrenders unconditionally and releases the hostages.
I don't think you're right. Netanyahu would need to hold an election as soon as the war is over, once he's forced to do so he will lose power as he's seen as one of the guilty parties for Oct 7th and Israelis aren't happy with his handling of the aftermath. As soon as he loses power he loses immunity from prosecution and he goes to jail for bribery and corruption.
As long as the war continues he stays out of jail. I don't think an unconditional surrender of Hamas and releasing all of the hostages would end the war. He would inevitably manufacture some other reason for it to continue.
Changes from 13th August [Find Out Now, 20th August, N=2,615]
Labour plus LDs plus Greens on 40% combined though, 7% more than Reform's 33%, so Labour MPs and Tory MPs in marginal seats will clearly hope for tactical voting from them to keep out Reform
I don't see tactical voting by Tory voters against Reform being a thing at all except in a very limited number of places.
Although there has always been significant racism in Britain, over the last year it seems to have changed from covert racism to overt racism. Although it’s better out in the open, it is becoming acceptable, which is not good.
There's never been less racism in Britain than now.
I disagree.
My experiences are getting worse.
Recently asked by a stranger if I came over on a boat.
Out of curiosity are you a person of colour?
That's very sad to hear TSE. I think it's an inevitable consequence of uncontrolled and very visible illegal immigration. People are fed up of having their money and resources spent on these freeloaders and it's starting to boil over.
Labour really need to lance the boil and bring back a mass deportations scheme for boat arrivals. Do whatever it takes to get planeloads of new arrivals on the way to a third country and also remove the ones who are already here. If it upsets a few liberals and they need to enable it with very tough laws that override the courts and international treaties then that's what it will take.
This has been going on too long and just as with the OSA, it's law abiding citizens who will bear that brunt of the fallout, including any citizens who look like they are from an Asian or African country. The blame lies squarely on the politicians for ignoring the public on the subject of immigration for the past 20 years.
No, racism is the fault of racists. Stop making excuses for these scrotes.
And this is why Reform are going to win a majority in 2028/29. You think admonishing or locking up a few people will solve the problem. It doesn't. The cause is uncontrolled illegal immigration, while that is still going no amount of locking up ordinary people is going to stop them from wanting fewer people who don't look like them in the country.
The UK is one of the best places in the world to be a foreign looking person, however, that is now being stretched to breaking point because the state just seems incapable of keeping us safe from illegal immigrants.
You keep ignoring the causes and try to treat the symptoms and you keep on losing. I just hope that when Reform arrives they are sensible and don't try and attack already naturalised citizen rights. I don't think they will but we are heading towards a huge over correction on immigration because of the last few years.
To be certain of a majority of a majority Reform need to be on 40-45%+ not roughly 30%, especially given the combined LD and Green vote is over 20% and offers Labour plenty of opportunity to squeeze them for tactical votes.
Whether the deal with France and the High Court decision leads to a decline in illegal migration I agree is still open for discussion
Labour got 34% at the last election and came away with a huge majority. Reform won't even need one half as big. They could easily get a majority on 35% of the vote.
Labour may try and squeeze the other parties but if anything the national mood is to get rid of Labour and give them a kicking just as it was for the Tories in 2024 who appealed to Reform defectors to come back so that Labour wouldn't get a big majority. Governing parties rarely benefit from tactical voting.
Revealed: Israeli military’s own data indicates civilian death rate of 83% in Gaza war
Figures from classified IDF database listed 8,900 named fighters as dead or probably dead in May, as overall death toll reached 53,000
Figures from a classified Israeli military intelligence database indicate five out of six Palestinians killed by Israeli forces in Gaza have been civilians, an extreme rate of slaughter rarely matched in recent decades of warfare.
As of May, 19 months into the war, Israeli intelligence officials listed 8,900 named fighters from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad as dead or “probably dead”, a joint investigation by the Guardian, the Israeli-Palestinian publication +972 Magazine and the Hebrew-language outlet Local Call has found.
At that time 53,000 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli attacks, according to health authorities in Gaza, a toll that included combatants and civilians. Fighters named in the Israeli military intelligence database accounted for just 17% of the total, which indicates that 83% of the dead were civilians.
That apparent ratio of civilians to combatants among the dead is extremely high for modern warfare, even compared with conflicts notorious for indiscriminate killing, including the Syrian and Sudanese civil wars.
“That proportion of civilians among those killed would be unusually high, particularly as it has been going on for such a long time,” said Therése Pettersson from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, which tracks civilian casualties worldwide. “If you single out a particular city or battle in another conflict, you could find similar rates, but very rarely overall.”
In global conflicts tracked by UCDP since 1989, civilians made up a greater proportion of the dead only in Srebenica – although not the Bosnian war overall – in the Rwandan genocide, and during the Russian siege of Mariupol in 2022, Pettersson said.
I wouldn't expect the IDF to be able to name every single Hamas fighter they had killed, so you can't conclude that everyone killed who isn't named is a civilian.
Well said. What a stupid report.
Plus the number of civilians killed would be zero if Hamas surrenders unconditionally and releases the hostages.
I don't think you're right. Netanyahu would need to hold an election as soon as the war is over, once he's forced to do so he will lose power as he's seen as one of the guilty parties for Oct 7th and Israelis aren't happy with his handling of the aftermath. As soon as he loses power he loses immunity from prosecution and he goes to jail for bribery and corruption.
As long as the war continues he stays out of jail. I don't think an unconditional surrender of Hamas and releasing all of the hostages would end the war. He would inevitably manufacture some other reason for it to continue.
Well if they surrender unconditionally and release all hostages and the war continues then we can discuss that then, though who would they be fighting once the hostages are all free and Hamas have surrendered?
Yes, Netanyahu is not a disinterested party, but until Hamas surrenders unconditionally he has the right to continue the war in full until they do.
Although there has always been significant racism in Britain, over the last year it seems to have changed from covert racism to overt racism. Although it’s better out in the open, it is becoming acceptable, which is not good.
There's never been less racism in Britain than now.
I disagree.
My experiences are getting worse.
Recently asked by a stranger if I came over on a boat.
Out of curiosity are you a person of colour?
That's very sad to hear TSE. I think it's an inevitable consequence of uncontrolled and very visible illegal immigration. People are fed up of having their money and resources spent on these freeloaders and it's starting to boil over.
Labour really need to lance the boil and bring back a mass deportations scheme for boat arrivals. Do whatever it takes to get planeloads of new arrivals on the way to a third country and also remove the ones who are already here. If it upsets a few liberals and they need to enable it with very tough laws that override the courts and international treaties then that's what it will take.
This has been going on too long and just as with the OSA, it's law abiding citizens who will bear that brunt of the fallout, including any citizens who look like they are from an Asian or African country. The blame lies squarely on the politicians for ignoring the public on the subject of immigration for the past 20 years.
No, racism is the fault of racists. Stop making excuses for these scrotes.
And this is why Reform are going to win a majority in 2028/29. You think admonishing or locking up a few people will solve the problem. It doesn't. The cause is uncontrolled illegal immigration, while that is still going no amount of locking up ordinary people is going to stop them from wanting fewer people who don't look like them in the country.
The UK is one of the best places in the world to be a foreign looking person, however, that is now being stretched to breaking point because the state just seems incapable of keeping us safe from illegal immigrants.
You keep ignoring the causes and try to treat the symptoms and you keep on losing. I just hope that when Reform arrives they are sensible and don't try and attack already naturalised citizen rights. I don't think they will but we are heading towards a huge over correction on immigration because of the last few years.
To be certain of a majority of a majority Reform need to be on 40-45%+ not roughly 30%, especially given the combined LD and Green vote is over 20% and offers Labour plenty of opportunity to squeeze them for tactical votes.
Whether the deal with France and the High Court decision leads to a decline in illegal migration I agree is still open for discussion
Labour got 34% at the last election and came away with a huge majority. Reform won't even need one half as big. They could easily get a majority on 35% of the vote.
Labour may try and squeeze the other parties but if anything the national mood is to get rid of Labour and give them a kicking just as it was for the Tories in 2024 who appealed to Reform defectors to come back so that Labour wouldn't get a big majority. Governing parties rarely benefit from tactical voting.
My best guess for the next election is that Reform win a majority with a lower share of the vote than Labour received in 2024.
Tactical voting can make a difference at the margins, but it can't overturn a vote share lead of ~8%.
Changes from 13th August [Find Out Now, 20th August, N=2,615]
Labour plus LDs plus Greens on 40% combined though, 7% more than Reform's 33%, so Labour MPs and Tory MPs in marginal seats will clearly hope for tactical voting from them to keep out Reform
I don't see tactical voting by Tory voters against Reform being a thing at all except in a very limited number of places.
It will be Reform vs Tory in most of the non LD held seats in the SE, SW and East and chunks of the Midlands Can't see many NE or NW Tories going Labour and in the bulk of LD held seats the Tories will see themselves as the challenger so I agree, very few Tories voting tactically. Nor should they as Green, Lab (and LD in the main) won't come to their rescue in ConRef fights
Tories are more likely to vote tactically for Reform over Labour where they look like the top 2 and even for Labour or the LDs against the SNP but less than half back Reform if any constituencies end up LD v Reform.
Although there has always been significant racism in Britain, over the last year it seems to have changed from covert racism to overt racism. Although it’s better out in the open, it is becoming acceptable, which is not good.
There's never been less racism in Britain than now.
I disagree.
My experiences are getting worse.
Recently asked by a stranger if I came over on a boat.
Out of curiosity are you a person of colour?
That's very sad to hear TSE. I think it's an inevitable consequence of uncontrolled and very visible illegal immigration. People are fed up of having their money and resources spent on these freeloaders and it's starting to boil over.
Labour really need to lance the boil and bring back a mass deportations scheme for boat arrivals. Do whatever it takes to get planeloads of new arrivals on the way to a third country and also remove the ones who are already here. If it upsets a few liberals and they need to enable it with very tough laws that override the courts and international treaties then that's what it will take.
This has been going on too long and just as with the OSA, it's law abiding citizens who will bear that brunt of the fallout, including any citizens who look like they are from an Asian or African country. The blame lies squarely on the politicians for ignoring the public on the subject of immigration for the past 20 years.
No, racism is the fault of racists. Stop making excuses for these scrotes.
And this is why Reform are going to win a majority in 2028/29. You think admonishing or locking up a few people will solve the problem. It doesn't. The cause is uncontrolled illegal immigration, while that is still going no amount of locking up ordinary people is going to stop them from wanting fewer people who don't look like them in the country.
The UK is one of the best places in the world to be a foreign looking person, however, that is now being stretched to breaking point because the state just seems incapable of keeping us safe from illegal immigrants.
You keep ignoring the causes and try to treat the symptoms and you keep on losing. I just hope that when Reform arrives they are sensible and don't try and attack already naturalised citizen rights. I don't think they will but we are heading towards a huge over correction on immigration because of the last few years.
To be certain of a majority of a majority Reform need to be on 40-45%+ not roughly 30%, especially given the combined LD and Green vote is over 20% and offers Labour plenty of opportunity to squeeze them for tactical votes.
Whether the deal with France and the High Court decision leads to a decline in illegal migration I agree is still open for discussion
Labour got 34% at the last election and came away with a huge majority. Reform won't even need one half as big. They could easily get a majority on 35% of the vote.
Labour may try and squeeze the other parties but if anything the national mood is to get rid of Labour and give them a kicking just as it was for the Tories in 2024 who appealed to Reform defectors to come back so that Labour wouldn't get a big majority. Governing parties rarely benefit from tactical voting.
Labour arent even secure in second place as it stands so they may well find squeezing not really an option anyway. Survival might be the name of the game
Although there has always been significant racism in Britain, over the last year it seems to have changed from covert racism to overt racism. Although it’s better out in the open, it is becoming acceptable, which is not good.
There's never been less racism in Britain than now.
I disagree.
My experiences are getting worse.
Recently asked by a stranger if I came over on a boat.
Out of curiosity are you a person of colour?
That's very sad to hear TSE. I think it's an inevitable consequence of uncontrolled and very visible illegal immigration. People are fed up of having their money and resources spent on these freeloaders and it's starting to boil over.
Labour really need to lance the boil and bring back a mass deportations scheme for boat arrivals. Do whatever it takes to get planeloads of new arrivals on the way to a third country and also remove the ones who are already here. If it upsets a few liberals and they need to enable it with very tough laws that override the courts and international treaties then that's what it will take.
This has been going on too long and just as with the OSA, it's law abiding citizens who will bear that brunt of the fallout, including any citizens who look like they are from an Asian or African country. The blame lies squarely on the politicians for ignoring the public on the subject of immigration for the past 20 years.
No, racism is the fault of racists. Stop making excuses for these scrotes.
And this is why Reform are going to win a majority in 2028/29. You think admonishing or locking up a few people will solve the problem. It doesn't. The cause is uncontrolled illegal immigration, while that is still going no amount of locking up ordinary people is going to stop them from wanting fewer people who don't look like them in the country.
The UK is one of the best places in the world to be a foreign looking person, however, that is now being stretched to breaking point because the state just seems incapable of keeping us safe from illegal immigrants.
You keep ignoring the causes and try to treat the symptoms and you keep on losing. I just hope that when Reform arrives they are sensible and don't try and attack already naturalised citizen rights. I don't think they will but we are heading towards a huge over correction on immigration because of the last few years.
To be certain of a majority of a majority Reform need to be on 40-45%+ not roughly 30%, especially given the combined LD and Green vote is over 20% and offers Labour plenty of opportunity to squeeze them for tactical votes.
Whether the deal with France and the High Court decision leads to a decline in illegal migration I agree is still open for discussion
Labour got 34% at the last election and came away with a huge majority. Reform won't even need one half as big. They could easily get a majority on 35% of the vote.
Labour may try and squeeze the other parties but if anything the national mood is to get rid of Labour and give them a kicking just as it was for the Tories in 2024 who appealed to Reform defectors to come back so that Labour wouldn't get a big majority. Governing parties rarely benefit from tactical voting.
My best guess for the next election is that Reform win a majority with a lower share of the vote than Labour received in 2024.
Tactical voting can make a difference at the margins, but it can't overturn a vote share lead of ~8%.
In Canada Polievre's Conservatives had massive poll leads before this year and got 41% in the Canadian election in April but still lost due to massive NDP, BQ and Green tactical voting for Carney's Liberals who ended up with 43.7%.
Given the tactical voting against him Farage faces, 30% is nowhere near enough to be sure of a Reform majority
Although there has always been significant racism in Britain, over the last year it seems to have changed from covert racism to overt racism. Although it’s better out in the open, it is becoming acceptable, which is not good.
There's never been less racism in Britain than now.
I disagree.
My experiences are getting worse.
Recently asked by a stranger if I came over on a boat.
Out of curiosity are you a person of colour?
That's very sad to hear TSE. I think it's an inevitable consequence of uncontrolled and very visible illegal immigration. People are fed up of having their money and resources spent on these freeloaders and it's starting to boil over.
Labour really need to lance the boil and bring back a mass deportations scheme for boat arrivals. Do whatever it takes to get planeloads of new arrivals on the way to a third country and also remove the ones who are already here. If it upsets a few liberals and they need to enable it with very tough laws that override the courts and international treaties then that's what it will take.
This has been going on too long and just as with the OSA, it's law abiding citizens who will bear that brunt of the fallout, including any citizens who look like they are from an Asian or African country. The blame lies squarely on the politicians for ignoring the public on the subject of immigration for the past 20 years.
No, racism is the fault of racists. Stop making excuses for these scrotes.
And this is why Reform are going to win a majority in 2028/29. You think admonishing or locking up a few people will solve the problem. It doesn't. The cause is uncontrolled illegal immigration, while that is still going no amount of locking up ordinary people is going to stop them from wanting fewer people who don't look like them in the country.
The UK is one of the best places in the world to be a foreign looking person, however, that is now being stretched to breaking point because the state just seems incapable of keeping us safe from illegal immigrants.
You keep ignoring the causes and try to treat the symptoms and you keep on losing. I just hope that when Reform arrives they are sensible and don't try and attack already naturalised citizen rights. I don't think they will but we are heading towards a huge over correction on immigration because of the last few years.
To be certain of a majority of a majority Reform need to be on 40-45%+ not roughly 30%, especially given the combined LD and Green vote is over 20% and offers Labour plenty of opportunity to squeeze them for tactical votes.
Whether the deal with France and the High Court decision leads to a decline in illegal migration I agree is still open for discussion
Labour got 34% at the last election and came away with a huge majority. Reform won't even need one half as big. They could easily get a majority on 35% of the vote.
Labour may try and squeeze the other parties but if anything the national mood is to get rid of Labour and give them a kicking just as it was for the Tories in 2024 who appealed to Reform defectors to come back so that Labour wouldn't get a big majority. Governing parties rarely benefit from tactical voting.
Labour had massive tactical voting FOR them from the LDs and Greens, Reform will largely have tactical voting AGAINST them unless they can really squeeze down the Tory vote to next to nothing in their target seats.
Blair got tactical votes for his government heavily in 2001 and even in some marginals in 2005 to keep Howard from No 10.
Boris and May also probably got some tactical votes in 2017 and 2019 to keep out Corbyn
Although there has always been significant racism in Britain, over the last year it seems to have changed from covert racism to overt racism. Although it’s better out in the open, it is becoming acceptable, which is not good.
There's never been less racism in Britain than now.
I disagree.
My experiences are getting worse.
Recently asked by a stranger if I came over on a boat.
Out of curiosity are you a person of colour?
That's very sad to hear TSE. I think it's an inevitable consequence of uncontrolled and very visible illegal immigration. People are fed up of having their money and resources spent on these freeloaders and it's starting to boil over.
Labour really need to lance the boil and bring back a mass deportations scheme for boat arrivals. Do whatever it takes to get planeloads of new arrivals on the way to a third country and also remove the ones who are already here. If it upsets a few liberals and they need to enable it with very tough laws that override the courts and international treaties then that's what it will take.
This has been going on too long and just as with the OSA, it's law abiding citizens who will bear that brunt of the fallout, including any citizens who look like they are from an Asian or African country. The blame lies squarely on the politicians for ignoring the public on the subject of immigration for the past 20 years.
No, racism is the fault of racists. Stop making excuses for these scrotes.
And this is why Reform are going to win a majority in 2028/29. You think admonishing or locking up a few people will solve the problem. It doesn't. The cause is uncontrolled illegal immigration, while that is still going no amount of locking up ordinary people is going to stop them from wanting fewer people who don't look like them in the country.
The UK is one of the best places in the world to be a foreign looking person, however, that is now being stretched to breaking point because the state just seems incapable of keeping us safe from illegal immigrants.
You keep ignoring the causes and try to treat the symptoms and you keep on losing. I just hope that when Reform arrives they are sensible and don't try and attack already naturalised citizen rights. I don't think they will but we are heading towards a huge over correction on immigration because of the last few years.
To be certain of a majority of a majority Reform need to be on 40-45%+ not roughly 30%, especially given the combined LD and Green vote is over 20% and offers Labour plenty of opportunity to squeeze them for tactical votes.
Whether the deal with France and the High Court decision leads to a decline in illegal migration I agree is still open for discussion
Labour got 34% at the last election and came away with a huge majority. Reform won't even need one half as big. They could easily get a majority on 35% of the vote.
Labour may try and squeeze the other parties but if anything the national mood is to get rid of Labour and give them a kicking just as it was for the Tories in 2024 who appealed to Reform defectors to come back so that Labour wouldn't get a big majority. Governing parties rarely benefit from tactical voting.
I think they could get a majority with even less than that if the more left liberal vote remains fragmented .
Changes from 13th August [Find Out Now, 20th August, N=2,615]
Labour plus LDs plus Greens on 40% combined though, 7% more than Reform's 33%, so Labour MPs and Tory MPs in marginal seats will clearly hope for tactical voting from them to keep out Reform
I don't see tactical voting by Tory voters against Reform being a thing at all except in a very limited number of places.
It will be Reform vs Tory in most of the non LD held seats in the SE, SW and East and chunks of the Midlands Can't see many NE or NW Tories going Labour and in the bulk of LD held seats the Tories will see themselves as the challenger so I agree, very few Tories voting tactically. Nor should they as Green, Lab (and LD in the main) won't come to their rescue in ConRef fights
Tories are more likely to vote tactically for Reform over Labour where they look like the top 2 and even for Labour or the LDs against the SNP but less than half back Reform if any constituencies end up LD v Reform.
I think I make it that I agree with just over three-quarters of a Trump tweet. I may need a lie down.
Biden was right though, attacking Russia itself rather than just trying to remove Russia from Ukraine would increase the risk of Putin using a tactical nuke tenfold
Although there has always been significant racism in Britain, over the last year it seems to have changed from covert racism to overt racism. Although it’s better out in the open, it is becoming acceptable, which is not good.
There's never been less racism in Britain than now.
I disagree.
My experiences are getting worse.
Recently asked by a stranger if I came over on a boat.
Out of curiosity are you a person of colour?
That's very sad to hear TSE. I think it's an inevitable consequence of uncontrolled and very visible illegal immigration. People are fed up of having their money and resources spent on these freeloaders and it's starting to boil over.
Labour really need to lance the boil and bring back a mass deportations scheme for boat arrivals. Do whatever it takes to get planeloads of new arrivals on the way to a third country and also remove the ones who are already here. If it upsets a few liberals and they need to enable it with very tough laws that override the courts and international treaties then that's what it will take.
This has been going on too long and just as with the OSA, it's law abiding citizens who will bear that brunt of the fallout, including any citizens who look like they are from an Asian or African country. The blame lies squarely on the politicians for ignoring the public on the subject of immigration for the past 20 years.
No, racism is the fault of racists. Stop making excuses for these scrotes.
And this is why Reform are going to win a majority in 2028/29. You think admonishing or locking up a few people will solve the problem. It doesn't. The cause is uncontrolled illegal immigration, while that is still going no amount of locking up ordinary people is going to stop them from wanting fewer people who don't look like them in the country.
The UK is one of the best places in the world to be a foreign looking person, however, that is now being stretched to breaking point because the state just seems incapable of keeping us safe from illegal immigrants.
You keep ignoring the causes and try to treat the symptoms and you keep on losing. I just hope that when Reform arrives they are sensible and don't try and attack already naturalised citizen rights. I don't think they will but we are heading towards a huge over correction on immigration because of the last few years.
To be certain of a majority of a majority Reform need to be on 40-45%+ not roughly 30%, especially given the combined LD and Green vote is over 20% and offers Labour plenty of opportunity to squeeze them for tactical votes.
Whether the deal with France and the High Court decision leads to a decline in illegal migration I agree is still open for discussion
Labour got 34% at the last election and came away with a huge majority. Reform won't even need one half as big. They could easily get a majority on 35% of the vote.
Labour may try and squeeze the other parties but if anything the national mood is to get rid of Labour and give them a kicking just as it was for the Tories in 2024 who appealed to Reform defectors to come back so that Labour wouldn't get a big majority. Governing parties rarely benefit from tactical voting.
My best guess for the next election is that Reform win a majority with a lower share of the vote than Labour received in 2024.
Tactical voting can make a difference at the margins, but it can't overturn a vote share lead of ~8%.
In Canada Polievre's Conservatives had massive poll leads before this year and got 41% in the Canadian election in April but still lost due to massive NDP, BQ and Green tactical voting for Carney's Liberals who ended up with 43.7%.
Given the tactical voting against him Farage faces, 30% is nowhere near enough to be sure of a Reform majority
FPTP can deliver winners on less than 30%, witness the Mayrol elections in West Country and Cambridgeshire and Peterborough.
The opposition to Reform, whilst no doubt motivated, is also split and its had to see it uniting behind this Labour government, particularly after another 4 years of tax rises.
I think I make it that I agree with just over three-quarters of a Trump tweet. I may need a lie down.
Biden was right though, attacking Russia itself rather than just trying to remove Russia from Ukraine would increase the risk of Putin using a tactical nuke tenfold
Ukraine have been conducting lots of attacks on Russian oil refineries, railways and military manufacturing and there have been zero tactical nukes used.
I'm typing these by voice dictation because I've had surgery on both my hands. That's why it's all bit fucked with the clipped prose style of a Raymond Chandler novel.
I think I make it that I agree with just over three-quarters of a Trump tweet. I may need a lie down.
Biden was right though, attacking Russia itself rather than just trying to remove Russia from Ukraine would increase the risk of Putin using a tactical nuke tenfold
Ukraine have been conducting lots of attacks on Russian oil refineries, railways and military manufacturing and there have been zero tactical nukes used.
Biden was wrong.
The odd missile lobbed over the border for theatre is rather different than sending Ukranian troops and jets and tanks into Russia, Putin could well use a nuke then
Although there has always been significant racism in Britain, over the last year it seems to have changed from covert racism to overt racism. Although it’s better out in the open, it is becoming acceptable, which is not good.
There's never been less racism in Britain than now.
I disagree.
My experiences are getting worse.
Recently asked by a stranger if I came over on a boat.
Out of curiosity are you a person of colour?
That's very sad to hear TSE. I think it's an inevitable consequence of uncontrolled and very visible illegal immigration. People are fed up of having their money and resources spent on these freeloaders and it's starting to boil over.
Labour really need to lance the boil and bring back a mass deportations scheme for boat arrivals. Do whatever it takes to get planeloads of new arrivals on the way to a third country and also remove the ones who are already here. If it upsets a few liberals and they need to enable it with very tough laws that override the courts and international treaties then that's what it will take.
This has been going on too long and just as with the OSA, it's law abiding citizens who will bear that brunt of the fallout, including any citizens who look like they are from an Asian or African country. The blame lies squarely on the politicians for ignoring the public on the subject of immigration for the past 20 years.
No, racism is the fault of racists. Stop making excuses for these scrotes.
And this is why Reform are going to win a majority in 2028/29. You think admonishing or locking up a few people will solve the problem. It doesn't. The cause is uncontrolled illegal immigration, while that is still going no amount of locking up ordinary people is going to stop them from wanting fewer people who don't look like them in the country.
The UK is one of the best places in the world to be a foreign looking person, however, that is now being stretched to breaking point because the state just seems incapable of keeping us safe from illegal immigrants.
You keep ignoring the causes and try to treat the symptoms and you keep on losing. I just hope that when Reform arrives they are sensible and don't try and attack already naturalised citizen rights. I don't think they will but we are heading towards a huge over correction on immigration because of the last few years.
To be certain of a majority of a majority Reform need to be on 40-45%+ not roughly 30%, especially given the combined LD and Green vote is over 20% and offers Labour plenty of opportunity to squeeze them for tactical votes.
Whether the deal with France and the High Court decision leads to a decline in illegal migration I agree is still open for discussion
Labour got 34% at the last election and came away with a huge majority. Reform won't even need one half as big. They could easily get a majority on 35% of the vote.
Labour may try and squeeze the other parties but if anything the national mood is to get rid of Labour and give them a kicking just as it was for the Tories in 2024 who appealed to Reform defectors to come back so that Labour wouldn't get a big majority. Governing parties rarely benefit from tactical voting.
My best guess for the next election is that Reform win a majority with a lower share of the vote than Labour received in 2024.
Tactical voting can make a difference at the margins, but it can't overturn a vote share lead of ~8%.
In Canada Polievre's Conservatives had massive poll leads before this year and got 41% in the Canadian election in April but still lost due to massive NDP, BQ and Green tactical voting for Carney's Liberals who ended up with 43.7%.
Given the tactical voting against him Farage faces, 30% is nowhere near enough to be sure of a Reform majority
FPTP can deliver winners on less than 30%, witness the Mayrol elections in West Country and Cambridgeshire and Peterborough.
The opposition to Reform, whilst no doubt motivated, is also split and its had to see it uniting behind this Labour government, particularly after another 4 years of tax rises.
Electing a Reform Mayor on protest vote is rather different to electing a Reform PM and leftwingers back tax rises
I think I make it that I agree with just over three-quarters of a Trump tweet. I may need a lie down.
Biden was right though, attacking Russia itself rather than just trying to remove Russia from Ukraine would increase the risk of Putin using a tactical nuke tenfold
Ukraine have been conducting lots of attacks on Russian oil refineries, railways and military manufacturing and there have been zero tactical nukes used.
Biden was wrong.
The odd missile lobbed over the border for theatre is rather different than sending Ukranian troops and jets and tanks into Russia, Putin could well use a nuke then
Er the Ukrainians are estimated to have taken out 15% of Russia's oil refining capacity, and recently have been bombing rail depots in Russia. There was an air strike in Kurshchina yesterday. And don't you remember the Kursk incursion? It may not have had much effect, but that's hardly "theatre"
I think I make it that I agree with just over three-quarters of a Trump tweet. I may need a lie down.
Biden was right though, attacking Russia itself rather than just trying to remove Russia from Ukraine would increase the risk of Putin using a tactical nuke tenfold
Ukraine have been conducting lots of attacks on Russian oil refineries, railways and military manufacturing and there have been zero tactical nukes used.
Biden was wrong.
The odd missile lobbed over the border for theatre is rather different than sending Ukranian troops and jets and tanks into Russia, Putin could well use a nuke then
I think I make it that I agree with just over three-quarters of a Trump tweet. I may need a lie down.
Surely Afghanistan '79 and Vietnam were two wars where the war was won without one of the sides attacking the opponents' home territory?
They were pretty grueling victories that took a long time, and were also very different wars, mostly fought as guerilla wars, rather than a war between peers with a defined front line.
Comments
The Tories need one of the Surrey CC seats to retain control of Surrey (or if not a third ward coming up in a few weeks)
The Gwynedd seat should be interesting. I holidayed there about 40 or 45 years ago
(Seriously, I have friends in quite different parts of the UK that have reported similar - for most of my life it's been obvious that things in that regard were better than ten years previously; I'm no longer sure that we're much ahead of where we were in, say, 2015)
Pass a law setting our own rules. If the Italians don't like it, they can pass their own law with their rules.
Blair had a crackdown on asylum seekers in ~1999 ish.
We can't say that the politicians have ignored the issue, but they have over-promised and under-delivered.
Revealed: Israeli military’s own data indicates civilian death rate of 83% in Gaza war
Figures from classified IDF database listed 8,900 named fighters as dead or probably dead in May, as overall death toll reached 53,000
Figures from a classified Israeli military intelligence database indicate five out of six Palestinians killed by Israeli forces in Gaza have been civilians, an extreme rate of slaughter rarely matched in recent decades of warfare.
As of May, 19 months into the war, Israeli intelligence officials listed 8,900 named fighters from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad as dead or “probably dead”, a joint investigation by the Guardian, the Israeli-Palestinian publication +972 Magazine and the Hebrew-language outlet Local Call has found.
At that time 53,000 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli attacks, according to health authorities in Gaza, a toll that included combatants and civilians. Fighters named in the Israeli military intelligence database accounted for just 17% of the total, which indicates that 83% of the dead were civilians.
That apparent ratio of civilians to combatants among the dead is extremely high for modern warfare, even compared with conflicts notorious for indiscriminate killing, including the Syrian and Sudanese civil wars.
“That proportion of civilians among those killed would be unusually high, particularly as it has been going on for such a long time,” said Therése Pettersson from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, which tracks civilian casualties worldwide. “If you single out a particular city or battle in another conflict, you could find similar rates, but very rarely overall.”
In global conflicts tracked by UCDP since 1989, civilians made up a greater proportion of the dead only in Srebenica – although not the Bosnian war overall – in the Rwandan genocide, and during the Russian siege of Mariupol in 2022, Pettersson said.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2025/aug/21/revealed-israeli-militarys-own-data-indicates-civilian-death-rate-of-83-in-gaza-war
I don't agree with Trump, or your views on migration and remigration but I am prepared to vote against you in an election while respecting democracy.
If you and your views win an election, they should be implemented. That is democracy.
There should be no international courts of any kind.
The UK is one of the best places in the world to be a foreign looking person, however, that is now being stretched to breaking point because the state just seems incapable of keeping us safe from illegal immigrants.
You keep ignoring the causes and try to treat the symptoms and you keep on losing. I just hope that when Reform arrives they are sensible and don't try and attack already naturalised citizen rights. I don't think they will but we are heading towards a huge over correction on immigration because of the last few years.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1958511834727858212.html
It does appear that the Ukranian ‘kinetic sanctions’ on Russia’s O&G industry might be working.
Whether the deal with France and the High Court decision leads to a decline in illegal migration I agree is still open for discussion
Plus the number of civilians killed would be zero if Hamas surrenders unconditionally and releases the hostages.
https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/05/22/taking-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fall-in-net-migration/
Nothing is ever certain based on opinion polls.
As long as the war continues he stays out of jail. I don't think an unconditional surrender of Hamas and releasing all of the hostages would end the war. He would inevitably manufacture some other reason for it to continue.
I think I make it that I agree with just over three-quarters of a Trump tweet. I may need a lie down.
Labour may try and squeeze the other parties but if anything the national mood is to get rid of Labour and give them a kicking just as it was for the Tories in 2024 who appealed to Reform defectors to come back so that Labour wouldn't get a big majority. Governing parties rarely benefit from tactical voting.
Yes, Netanyahu is not a disinterested party, but until Hamas surrenders unconditionally he has the right to continue the war in full until they do.
Tactical voting can make a difference at the margins, but it can't overturn a vote share lead of ~8%.
NEW THREAD
Tories would win some tactical votes in seats like mine of Brentwood and Ongar where the main challengers are Reform. 22% of Labour, 33% of LD and even 11% of Green voters would hold their nose and tactically vote Tory to keep Farage's party from taking their constituency Yougov has found
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51713-is-tactical-voting-more-of-a-threat-or-opportunity-for-reform-uk
Given the tactical voting against him Farage faces, 30% is nowhere near enough to be sure of a Reform majority
Blair got tactical votes for his government heavily in 2001 and even in some marginals in 2005 to keep Howard from No 10.
Boris and May also probably got some tactical votes in 2017 and 2019 to keep out Corbyn
The opposition to Reform, whilst no doubt motivated, is also split and its had to see it uniting behind this Labour government, particularly after another 4 years of tax rises.
Biden was wrong.