The Times They Are A’Changing – politicalbetting.com
The Times They Are A’Changing – politicalbetting.com
Over the next couple of weeks we’re making some behind-the-scenes changes to [Politicalbetting’s plumbing. The short version: we’re moving the site behind Cloudflare, the world’s most widely used network for keeping websites fast, reliable, and resilient when people make outrageous claims about the benefits of pineapple on pizza.
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Cheers for the update. Will the change protect us from the lunatics who ridiculously assert that Caesar was a better general than Hannibal?
Yes that's lunacy. There are many.
Good morning, everyone.
It depends on what you expected them to achieve. If you expected them to bring Russia to its knees within a couple of weeks, then they obviously have not worked. But I'd argue that was a silly expectation (unless Putin saw them as a foreshadowing of more to come and folded).
If you expected sanctions to hurt Russia, and to make it much harder for them to prosecute the war, then that is what has happened. Russia's economy is in the toilet, and the cost of the war is much higher than it would be without sanctions. This reduces the amount of war Russia can do. Yes, they can still get the chips and other things they need, though in smaller quantities, more expense, unknown quality, and with a longer lead time, than it would if they purchased them directly from the west. They can still sell oil, but at a reduced price and by using expensive and unreliable grey and black fleets at increased cost.
Then there's another aspect to sanctions: they act as a carrot as well as a stick. If Putin and Russia behaves, sanctions can be loosened or even removed.
Yes, the sanctions against the Russian regime could be harsher. But have they been useful? Hell, yes.
Plus I don't like Hannibal's lack of modesty, this is is the sort of arrogance/hubris that leads to an epic defeat.
According to Plutarch, Scipio asked Hannibal "who the greatest general was", to which Hannibal replied "either Alexander or Pyrrhus, then myself".
Surely it should have been 'Alexander or Pyrrhus, then the other, *THEN* myself.'
Can you slow it down from NW London?
If I have my locations correct, that should give Kinabalu and the Leons their own private bear pit.
And if it doesn't, we can put them in the bear pit at the Sheffield Botanical Gardens.
Well duh.
How much that is the curse of permanews, and how much it's technology and Amazon causing us to expect instant delivery, I don't know. But it's not just about politics, and I doubt that it's good for us.
I was suggesting that if that is all that was required, it would have been great if it could have happened earlier.
An example I think I've mentioned before on my neighbourhood FB page:
What the fck is the council doing about the disgraceful potholes on my road?
Same people:
Why the fck has my road been coned off for resurfacing forcing me to park elsewhere?
Cloudflare is one of the biggest networks operating on the Internet. People use Cloudflare services for the purposes of increasing the security and performance of their web sites and services.
But overall the nation needs a story with narrative, and it isn't happening.
The world's never been the same since.
"You know, I always had a great relationship with President Putin. And we would have done great things together in terms of, you know. Their land is incredible. The rare earth, the oil gas — it's incredible. It is the largest piece of land in the world as a nation by far. I think they have 11 timezones if you can believe it, that's big stuff. But we would have done a lot of great things we had the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax which stopped us from doing that. We would have done so great. But we have the greatest — one of the great hoaxes. I mean, there were others like the election itself and as you know, as you covered better than anyone. But it was a rigged election and a horrible thing that took place in 2020. But we would have had a great relationship but we did amazingly well considering — you know, he would look and see what happened, he would think we're crazy with the made up Russia, Russia, Russia hoax. So we had something very important and we had a very good meeting today, but we'll see. I mean it's, you have to get a deal."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/snooker/articles/c39dp0v7ny1o
Haaretz.com
@haaretzcom
4m
Israeli soccer fans call Poles "murderers since 1939," spark outrage in Poland
https://x.com/haaretzcom/status/1956638310308442145
1) Trump genuinely doesn't like wars. (Taiwan, take note).
2) Trump believes in big power block spheres of influence. USA, Russia, China, India, Europe, (Islamic world).
3) Ukraine is part of an undecided hinterland WRT (2) with undecided amounts of land in eastern Europe going into the Russia sphere. Other bits of land that don't fit (2) are Canada, Greenland, USA in NATO, Israel.
4) UN and the post war international order is for losers.
I think one to watch is the position RefUK and Cons take up in the 2026 Senedd election about 20mph default. It had cross-party support in ~2020/2021 in the Senedd, until the Cons needed a wedge issue and saw a minority they could leverage.
We have data coming in of lower collisisons, lower insurance premiums etc, but RefUK could go culture war especially if receiving missives from Bromley, and the Cons try and outflank them. In those circs, many will be pushed from reason to emotion.
The operation, under local aesthetic, took 3 1/2 hours. They cut through my gum, drilled away a bit of the root and removed the infection and sewed me back up again. 8 stitches. I arrived at lunch time and was home by early evening. I even slept through some of the operation it was that easy, helped by the fact that I didn't need to hold my mouth open (you close it and they lift up your lips to get at the gum).
Dentist, 2 nurses and a consultant in attendance. The consultant sitting in front of me watching on a laptop via the microscope above me (I was lying flat) and another over the dentist's eye. The theatre was impressive as was the amazing hygiene.
Very impressed. Must have cost a fortune. Stitches out in a week. No pain whatsoever.
Seems like there's section of Israeli opinion which is trying lose friends and thereby influence people.
Or is it non suspension of some of the previously announced secondary sanctions and when they are due to come into force?
(See also: ULEZ expansion in London.)
No-one in Europe/NATO has responded with a 'Not an inch'. Trump's agenda is making progress. But undoing 80 years of post WWII alliance and 30 years of post cold war policy takes time.
2) Yes, but imo his worldview is stuck in the 1950s, when he was at school, or the 1970s, when he was a thrusting young crooked businessman. Either way, it's delusional. To me, he wants Europe to be a cake to be carved up, and overdoes military power vs economic power - though as Europe recovers militarily his influence is circumscribed.
3) Agree. But I think he has yet to get around to his version of the Monroe Doctrine. Being stuck in the eg 1970s, he has not got to grips with the power of middle income countries - or how quickly the USA is going backwards relatively as a society (eg life expectancy rankings in the Americas).
4) Yes, but it is greater than that. He hates the rule of law and is out to destroy it. Hence his financial attacks and travel restrictions via Executive Order on individuals who just work for the International Court.
UEFA has set precedent for banning Maccabi Haifa after 'scandalous' banner in Conference League game
Maccabi Haifa face being hit with a UEFA sanction after yobs displayed an offensive banner.
...
The Israeli Embassy in Warsaw also condemned the vile banner.
"There is no place for such words and actions, from any side, neither at the stadium nor anywhere else. Never!" The embassy wrote on X. "These shameful incidents do not reflect the spirit of the majority of Israeli fans."
https://www.sportbible.com/football/football-news/uefa-maccabi-haifa-banner-conference-league-261595-20250815
The issue of where Trump stands WRT global policy, and what will be the outcomes of his folly are of course linked but separate.
His changing sides over all his alliances can't be set in concrete quickly - he has to pretend for now to sort of on our side. But this week he has succeeded in getting everyone tacitly to agree that Ukraine must be split up. Which is a big win for this friend of Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TV1qY2ALlgo
Ukraine the Latest recorded a podcast immediately after it had finished, which is now online:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apBVv0mERoY
It's quite amusing that their correspondent made a call that since there were no hotel spaces, it would be squalid, so they hired a 26ft Sturgeon-wagon. And they have been on Canadian News being interview about van-life.
Superpowers carving up smaller ones? Longstanding American practice in Central and South America and the Middle East, and to be fair, Europe only left the empire business within (just about) living memory.
Trump's interviews going back decades have majored on two themes. All other countries are ripping America off, even its allies are parasites, and China is especially bad. And he really does not like wars.
“The "When the Facts Change" post I wrote a couple of days ago is becoming more relevant by the hour
The UK 30-year gilt yield is now approaching 5.6pc.
The Bank of England CUT the policy rate by 25 basis points last Thursday.
The UK's long-term sovereign borrowing cost has meanwhile gone UP by almost 25bps.
This should NOT be happening”
https://x.com/liamhalligan/status/1956357461226504306?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/1956310811921531149
Truss supposedly crashed the economy. Yet we’re in a far worse position now and no political will to resolve it.
This is a blessing and a curse: the curse is that the Pres will likely have more freedom of action in the next couple of years, as fewer compromises need to be made; the blessing is that nothing need be taken as permanent. The speed with which eg Tarriffs could be removed by a future administration matches the speed with which they were imposed.
When it comes to Ukraine, if the country can continue to fight, it now looks likely to be able to weather the Trump position (try and stop the war without regard for international norms and order). I would never rely on Germany in FP terms; but Poland, France and Britain are - rightly - steadfast in their defence of the Ukrainian position.
USA can't give a security guarantee because it flies in the face of its real policy which is to accept Russia's sphere of influence in eastern Europe, the limits to be determined by Europeans, and USA has no intention of being involved in direct USA/Russia conflict.
The detail on the ground is fuzzy, but the big picture is plain.
"The weird thing is that some people are saying that this summit did not change anything."
"...sanctions on Russia were nowhere to be found. Remember this whole summit seemed to come about because Trump was so angry with Russia and humiliated by Putin that he was going to hammer Russia with sanctions….which now seem basically permanently off the table."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/putin-makes-no-concessions-but-trump?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
So more of the same really.
(No worries, just creating the narrative for an SMO on Sheffield by Peak District sheep in 2364.)
A song covering the entirety of political theory in 4 minutes:
https://youtu.be/PS9Bc_GQBEs?si=0zb1vwKvPZRRBeSO
Well, that's that then, it must be true.
I mean, Farage has got rid of 40% of his party already and that's while in opposition.
All of the above, and also the position as you've described it, indeed the position as anybody wants to describe it, is unchanged by this performative summit between Trump and Putin. A waste of time for everyone but themselves.
I also used one in Russia because of roaming bollocks and it worked well. I didn't dare take my UK phone to Ukraine in case it pinged a tower and I got fucking FPV droned as a suspected merc. (Ukrainian mobile phone data often ends up in the hands of the Russians and vice versa).
In which case we should just make sure this one is defeated.
Ukranian social media is even more convinced that it was a fake Putin at the meeting, the mannerisms and inflections didn’t seem “right”. Reports that “Putin” gave his long history speech, had his photo taken, and got straight back on his plane cancelling the planned lunch, would also give credence to that theory. The fake “Putin” wouldn’t have the authority to actually agree anything.
‘Of course he exists. The Party exists. Big Brother is the embodiment of the Party.’
‘Does he exist in the same way as I exist?’
‘You do not exist,’ said O’Brien.
Once again the sense of helplessness assailed him. He knew, or he could imagine, the arguments which proved his own nonexistence; but they were nonsense, they were only a play on words. Did not the statement, ‘You do not exist’, contain a logical absurdity? But what use was it to say so? His mind shrivelled as he thought of the unanswerable, mad arguments with which O’Brien would demolish him.
‘I think I exist,’ he said wearily. ‘I am conscious of my own identity. I was born and I shall die. I have arms and legs. I occupy a particular point in space. No other solid object can occupy the same point simultaneously. In that sense, does Big Brother exist?’
‘It is of no importance. He exists.’
‘Will Big Brother ever die?’
‘Of course not. How could he die? Next question.’
Pretty much any website with a lot of video or spikes in load is going to be running Cloudflare, apart from Youtube, Amazon, and Facebook, who run their own content delivery networks.