44% of the public are liars, in fact 59% of them are liars once you add Don't Knows

System · August 15

44% of the public are liars, in fact 59% of them are liars once you add Don't Knows – politicalbetting.com

If you heard a couple arguing in public, would you try to listen in?Would: 41%Would not: 44%yougov.co.uk/topics/polit…

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles · August 15

First?

IanB2 · August 15

lol @ ?

Taz · August 15

Of course I’d listen, I’d just try to do it discretely as if I wasn’t listening.

TheScreamingEagles · August 15

Taz said:
Of course I’d listen, I’d just try to do it discretely as if I wasn’t listening.

This is the benefit of headphones, I can pretend to be listening to the music, but would have paused the music so I could listen.

One time I did that the woman called the bloke ‘needle dick’ and I burst out laughing.

DavidL · August 15

No comment.

Actually it would depend on the tone. If I thought there were threats I would. Low level bickering, probably not.

Taz · August 15

TheScreamingEagles said:

Taz said:
Of course I’d listen, I’d just try to do it discretely as if I wasn’t listening.
This is the benefit of headphones, I can pretend to be listening to the music, but would have paused the music so I could listen.

One time I did that the woman called the bloke ‘needle dick’ and I burst out laughing.

In public too !!

Savage. 😂😂😂😂😂

Sandpit · August 15

Well one advantage of this big meeting later today, is that I’ve not heard an air raid siren for 72 hours.

Not that I’m particularly optimistic about the meeting itself, still not convinced that the aggressor wants peace, or at least is prepared to make an acceptable offer to cease fire and allow negotiations.

That said, Trump’s somewhat unconventional approach to diplomacy has yielded some surprising results so far, such as the agreement last week between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but I still don’t think the Russians want a ‘peace’ acceptable to Ukraine and their European supporters.

rcs1000 · August 15

Well it was on topic:

rcs1000 said:
On topic: I think Florida is now beyond the Democrats reach, even with Trump doing his best to upset the Latino community. (Not least because there isn't 'one' Latino community, there are many,)

Texas is more interesting, not least because of the vicious fight ahead over the Republican Senatorial nomination, with Ken Paxton coming after Cornyn.

My gut on this one is that if Paxton is the nominee - and let's not forget Paxton was impeached by the Texas House of Representatives - then the Democrats have a real shout. We shall see.

rcs1000 · August 15

On topic, I can think of few things less interesting than other people's arguments.

rcs1000 · August 15

rcs1000 said:
On topic, I can think of few things less interesting than other people's arguments.

Which does, I guess, raise the question of why I spend so much time on here.

Scott_xP · August 15

@atrupar.com‬

Sen. Hagerty on his legal rationale for not counting undocumented immigrants in the census: "There's a constitutional interpretation I think that has been misapplied that goes back to slavery days and what portion of a person is going to be counted."

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lwh66yql552r

TheScreamingEagles · August 15

Taz said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Taz said:
Of course I’d listen, I’d just try to do it discretely as if I wasn’t listening.
This is the benefit of headphones, I can pretend to be listening to the music, but would have paused the music so I could listen.

One time I did that the woman called the bloke ‘needle dick’ and I burst out laughing.
In public too !!

Savage. 😂😂😂😂😂

I don’t know what it is about that Costa Coffee on Market Street in Manchester but it has had its fair few domestics, there was needle dick, then back in 2011 I saw/heard a couple argue in what I think was Greek, the bloke picked up his girlfriend’s phone, he jumped into the air with both feet in the air, smashed her phone into ground. Then ten minutes later he walked back in and tried to fix her phone which was in a million bits.

Sandpit · August 15

FPT

Stuartinromford said:

Sandpit said:

Malmesbury said:
a
Sandpit said:

Malmesbury said:
a
Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Stuartinromford said:

Malmesbury said:

Stuartinromford said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

Stuartinromford said:

Nigelb said:
Here's more recent polling that you won't hear Trump or Farage supporters mentioning.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/692522/surge-concern-immigration-abated.aspx
...Americans have grown markedly more positive toward immigration over the past year, with the share wanting immigration reduced dropping from 55% in 2024 to 30% today. At the same time, a record-high 79% of U.S. adults say immigration is a good thing for the country.

These shifts reverse a four-year trend of rising concern about immigration that began in 2021 and reflect changes among all major party groups...
The paradox of the migration debate.

Most people want the total numbers to fall, but don't want the numbers in most migration scenarios to fall. It's not quite "less migrants in theory but not in practice", but it's pretty close;

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52704-is-there-public-support-for-large-scale-removals-of-migrants

The way that most people square that circle is to massively overestimate the proportion of immigration that is irregular/illegal because the boats are so visible. From that YouGov link,

Our research shows that almost half of Britons (47%) think there are more migrants staying in the UK illegally rather than legally, including fully a third of the public (32%) who think the illegal figure is “much higher”.

As our American friends are currently discovering, anti-immigrant talk is much more popular than anti-immigrant action.
Those YouGov findings are really important. The radical right has done a very good propaganda job of convincing people that most immigrants are illegal and coming for benefits. Instead of pandering to them, the Labour government needs to push back and make clear how that's not true and that immigrants are mostly the sort of immigration people like.
lol

You should put that on the bus along with "they're not really 4 star hotels because often room service is slow"
Centrist dads don't understand the difference between facts and truth. And they get all upset when others do.
You are Jeffrey Archer and I claim my five pounds.

Yeah, there's some truth in that- visceral experience beats numbers. To a degree. But there are two important buts.

First is that human progress tends to come from paying more attention to the factual and less to the visceral. It's uncomfortable, but it's what makes our lives relatively pleasant.

Second is that numbers can only be trumped so far. We have a situation where a near-majority of British people think that there is more illegal migration to the UK than legal. And that's not true. It's a lie. How the hell do you run a country on the basis of a lie, even if it's commonly held? And why is that lie so commonly held? (See also polling that shows that the public think that international aid and MPs expenses are meaningful items in the national budget.)

I don't really have answers to either of those questions, but they're important.
How many do you think there are?

I've seen reasonable estimates that there are about 500K people in the workforce who don't have the right to work here.
A lot, but not a majority. After all, net migration last year was about 400k. The curse of flows and totals strikes again.

(And to put 0.5 million in context, the total UK workforce is about 34 million.)
So in a company employing 68 people, on average one of them will be illegal.
Some estimates on the numbers of illegals are significantly lower. Even so, I suspect the illegals are concentrated in specific geographies and workplaces. Most of them overstayers or on visas not permitting working rather than completely in the underground economy.
Agreed, there will be specific industries and even companies with much higher concentrations.

Are the delivery companies like Deliveroo still hiding behind their drivers being contractors and not employees, in the same way they allow their drivers to use illegal vehicles such as unregistered motorbikes with no insurance?

It would be good to see a test case of a large company that’s clearly not doing due diligence on the people working under its brand name.
Yup - look for companies using "contractors" for low paid jobs. Often with clauses allowing the "contractors" to farm out work to others.

Some Deliveroo "riders" are actually gangmasters for groups of workers - they get the contract and parcel out the work. It's a big business and full of utter scumbags.
Does there ever appear to be an acknowledgement of the issue from government, let alone anything that looks like a plan to clamp down on the illegal working practices?
Nope - virtually certain that industry representatives are working the political scene. Just as the Leicester garment trade did.
I wonder how high unemployment needs to go before it makes political sense to actually look at these cowboys. Ditto the fake colleges which appear to be visa farms for restaurants and ‘taxis’.
In economic terms, probably never. People like cheap taxis, food delivery and restaurants, and would be awfully cross if they had to pay non-exploitative rates for them. It doesn't really affect unemployment either, because at proper rates, the jobs just don't exist.

You don't need a conspiracy, beyond the British love of a bargain.

Perhaps one can be overly optimistic about the efforts a Labour government would put in to tackling exploitative labour practices in nascent industries.

Or do they simply not care because there’s no Union representing this particular group of exploited workers, and some of their bosses are Party donors or activists?

ydoethur · August 15

TheScreamingEagles said:

Taz said:
Of course I’d listen, I’d just try to do it discretely as if I wasn’t listening.
This is the benefit of headphones, I can pretend to be listening to the music, but would have paused the music so I could listen.

One time I did that the woman called the bloke ‘needle dick’ and I burst out laughing.

Did you say you were listening to Round the Horne?

Malmesbury · August 15

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:
On topic, I can think of few things less interesting than other people's arguments.
Which does, I guess, raise the question of why I spend so much time on here.

That’s not an argument. It’s a contradiction.

It's one pound for a five-minute argument, but only eight pounds for a course of ten.

rcs1000 · August 15

Sandpit said:
FPT
Stuartinromford said:

Sandpit said:

Malmesbury said:
a
Sandpit said:

Malmesbury said:
a
Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Stuartinromford said:

Malmesbury said:

Stuartinromford said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

Stuartinromford said:

Nigelb said:
Here's more recent polling that you won't hear Trump or Farage supporters mentioning.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/692522/surge-concern-immigration-abated.aspx
...Americans have grown markedly more positive toward immigration over the past year, with the share wanting immigration reduced dropping from 55% in 2024 to 30% today. At the same time, a record-high 79% of U.S. adults say immigration is a good thing for the country.

These shifts reverse a four-year trend of rising concern about immigration that began in 2021 and reflect changes among all major party groups...
The paradox of the migration debate.

Most people want the total numbers to fall, but don't want the numbers in most migration scenarios to fall. It's not quite "less migrants in theory but not in practice", but it's pretty close;

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52704-is-there-public-support-for-large-scale-removals-of-migrants

The way that most people square that circle is to massively overestimate the proportion of immigration that is irregular/illegal because the boats are so visible. From that YouGov link,

Our research shows that almost half of Britons (47%) think there are more migrants staying in the UK illegally rather than legally, including fully a third of the public (32%) who think the illegal figure is “much higher”.

As our American friends are currently discovering, anti-immigrant talk is much more popular than anti-immigrant action.
Those YouGov findings are really important. The radical right has done a very good propaganda job of convincing people that most immigrants are illegal and coming for benefits. Instead of pandering to them, the Labour government needs to push back and make clear how that's not true and that immigrants are mostly the sort of immigration people like.
lol

You should put that on the bus along with "they're not really 4 star hotels because often room service is slow"
Centrist dads don't understand the difference between facts and truth. And they get all upset when others do.
You are Jeffrey Archer and I claim my five pounds.

Yeah, there's some truth in that- visceral experience beats numbers. To a degree. But there are two important buts.

First is that human progress tends to come from paying more attention to the factual and less to the visceral. It's uncomfortable, but it's what makes our lives relatively pleasant.

Second is that numbers can only be trumped so far. We have a situation where a near-majority of British people think that there is more illegal migration to the UK than legal. And that's not true. It's a lie. How the hell do you run a country on the basis of a lie, even if it's commonly held? And why is that lie so commonly held? (See also polling that shows that the public think that international aid and MPs expenses are meaningful items in the national budget.)

I don't really have answers to either of those questions, but they're important.
How many do you think there are?

I've seen reasonable estimates that there are about 500K people in the workforce who don't have the right to work here.
A lot, but not a majority. After all, net migration last year was about 400k. The curse of flows and totals strikes again.

(And to put 0.5 million in context, the total UK workforce is about 34 million.)
So in a company employing 68 people, on average one of them will be illegal.
Some estimates on the numbers of illegals are significantly lower. Even so, I suspect the illegals are concentrated in specific geographies and workplaces. Most of them overstayers or on visas not permitting working rather than completely in the underground economy.
Agreed, there will be specific industries and even companies with much higher concentrations.

Are the delivery companies like Deliveroo still hiding behind their drivers being contractors and not employees, in the same way they allow their drivers to use illegal vehicles such as unregistered motorbikes with no insurance?

It would be good to see a test case of a large company that’s clearly not doing due diligence on the people working under its brand name.
Yup - look for companies using "contractors" for low paid jobs. Often with clauses allowing the "contractors" to farm out work to others.

Some Deliveroo "riders" are actually gangmasters for groups of workers - they get the contract and parcel out the work. It's a big business and full of utter scumbags.
Does there ever appear to be an acknowledgement of the issue from government, let alone anything that looks like a plan to clamp down on the illegal working practices?
Nope - virtually certain that industry representatives are working the political scene. Just as the Leicester garment trade did.
I wonder how high unemployment needs to go before it makes political sense to actually look at these cowboys. Ditto the fake colleges which appear to be visa farms for restaurants and ‘taxis’.
In economic terms, probably never. People like cheap taxis, food delivery and restaurants, and would be awfully cross if they had to pay non-exploitative rates for them. It doesn't really affect unemployment either, because at proper rates, the jobs just don't exist.

You don't need a conspiracy, beyond the British love of a bargain.
Perhaps one can be overly optimistic about the efforts a Labour government would put in to tackling exploitative labour practices in nascent industries.

Or do they simply not care because there’s no Union representing this particular group of exploited workers, and some of their bosses are Party donors or activists?

One man's expolitative labour practices, are another's cheap products and services.

TheScreamingEagles · August 15

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Taz said:
Of course I’d listen, I’d just try to do it discretely as if I wasn’t listening.
This is the benefit of headphones, I can pretend to be listening to the music, but would have paused the music so I could listen.

One time I did that the woman called the bloke ‘needle dick’ and I burst out laughing.
Did you say you were listening to Round the Horne?

No, I was more than likely to be listening to Radiohead.

rcs1000 · August 15

Sandpit said:
Well one advantage of this big meeting later today, is that I’ve not heard an air raid siren for 72 hours.

Not that I’m particularly optimistic about the meeting itself, still not convinced that the aggressor wants peace, or at least is prepared to make an acceptable offer to cease fire and allow negotiations.

That said, Trump’s somewhat unconventional approach to diplomacy has yielded some surprising results so far, such as the agreement last week between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but I still don’t think the Russians want a ‘peace’ acceptable to Ukraine and their European supporters.

The question is what happens next? Will Trump take the refusal of the Ukrainians and Europeans to agree to his peace proposal as evidence that they are the ones who are being intransigent and therefore use it as an excuse to further reduce support to Ukraine?

Sunil_Prasannan · August 15

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Taz said:
Of course I’d listen, I’d just try to do it discretely as if I wasn’t listening.
This is the benefit of headphones, I can pretend to be listening to the music, but would have paused the music so I could listen.

One time I did that the woman called the bloke ‘needle dick’ and I burst out laughing.
Did you say you were listening to Round the Horne?
No, I was more than likely to be listening to Radiohead.

You Creep!

kinabalu · August 15

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:
On topic, I can think of few things less interesting than other people's arguments.
Which does, I guess, raise the question of why I spend so much time on here.

I still recall (and fear I am forever doomed to recall) a prolonged spat between IshmaelZ and Nigel Foremain about the size of their respective endowments.

This was in the bad old days before the OSA of course. We'd be protected from that sort of thing now.

Sandpit · August 15

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:
FPT
Stuartinromford said:

Sandpit said:

Malmesbury said:
a
Sandpit said:

Malmesbury said:
a
Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Stuartinromford said:

Malmesbury said:

Stuartinromford said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

Stuartinromford said:

Nigelb said:
Here's more recent polling that you won't hear Trump or Farage supporters mentioning.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/692522/surge-concern-immigration-abated.aspx
...Americans have grown markedly more positive toward immigration over the past year, with the share wanting immigration reduced dropping from 55% in 2024 to 30% today. At the same time, a record-high 79% of U.S. adults say immigration is a good thing for the country.

These shifts reverse a four-year trend of rising concern about immigration that began in 2021 and reflect changes among all major party groups...
The paradox of the migration debate.

Most people want the total numbers to fall, but don't want the numbers in most migration scenarios to fall. It's not quite "less migrants in theory but not in practice", but it's pretty close;

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52704-is-there-public-support-for-large-scale-removals-of-migrants

The way that most people square that circle is to massively overestimate the proportion of immigration that is irregular/illegal because the boats are so visible. From that YouGov link,

Our research shows that almost half of Britons (47%) think there are more migrants staying in the UK illegally rather than legally, including fully a third of the public (32%) who think the illegal figure is “much higher”.

As our American friends are currently discovering, anti-immigrant talk is much more popular than anti-immigrant action.
Those YouGov findings are really important. The radical right has done a very good propaganda job of convincing people that most immigrants are illegal and coming for benefits. Instead of pandering to them, the Labour government needs to push back and make clear how that's not true and that immigrants are mostly the sort of immigration people like.
lol

You should put that on the bus along with "they're not really 4 star hotels because often room service is slow"
Centrist dads don't understand the difference between facts and truth. And they get all upset when others do.
You are Jeffrey Archer and I claim my five pounds.

Yeah, there's some truth in that- visceral experience beats numbers. To a degree. But there are two important buts.

First is that human progress tends to come from paying more attention to the factual and less to the visceral. It's uncomfortable, but it's what makes our lives relatively pleasant.

Second is that numbers can only be trumped so far. We have a situation where a near-majority of British people think that there is more illegal migration to the UK than legal. And that's not true. It's a lie. How the hell do you run a country on the basis of a lie, even if it's commonly held? And why is that lie so commonly held? (See also polling that shows that the public think that international aid and MPs expenses are meaningful items in the national budget.)

I don't really have answers to either of those questions, but they're important.
How many do you think there are?

I've seen reasonable estimates that there are about 500K people in the workforce who don't have the right to work here.
A lot, but not a majority. After all, net migration last year was about 400k. The curse of flows and totals strikes again.

(And to put 0.5 million in context, the total UK workforce is about 34 million.)
So in a company employing 68 people, on average one of them will be illegal.
Some estimates on the numbers of illegals are significantly lower. Even so, I suspect the illegals are concentrated in specific geographies and workplaces. Most of them overstayers or on visas not permitting working rather than completely in the underground economy.
Agreed, there will be specific industries and even companies with much higher concentrations.

Are the delivery companies like Deliveroo still hiding behind their drivers being contractors and not employees, in the same way they allow their drivers to use illegal vehicles such as unregistered motorbikes with no insurance?

It would be good to see a test case of a large company that’s clearly not doing due diligence on the people working under its brand name.
Yup - look for companies using "contractors" for low paid jobs. Often with clauses allowing the "contractors" to farm out work to others.

Some Deliveroo "riders" are actually gangmasters for groups of workers - they get the contract and parcel out the work. It's a big business and full of utter scumbags.
Does there ever appear to be an acknowledgement of the issue from government, let alone anything that looks like a plan to clamp down on the illegal working practices?
Nope - virtually certain that industry representatives are working the political scene. Just as the Leicester garment trade did.
I wonder how high unemployment needs to go before it makes political sense to actually look at these cowboys. Ditto the fake colleges which appear to be visa farms for restaurants and ‘taxis’.
In economic terms, probably never. People like cheap taxis, food delivery and restaurants, and would be awfully cross if they had to pay non-exploitative rates for them. It doesn't really affect unemployment either, because at proper rates, the jobs just don't exist.

You don't need a conspiracy, beyond the British love of a bargain.
Perhaps one can be overly optimistic about the efforts a Labour government would put in to tackling exploitative labour practices in nascent industries.

Or do they simply not care because there’s no Union representing this particular group of exploited workers, and some of their bosses are Party donors or activists?
One man's expolitative labour practices, are another's cheap products and services.

Of course, but we lived for a long time without needing delivery of a bottle of Coke and a packet of crisps, from the shop a quarter of a mile away, via a company that advertises at the Super Bowl, but where the guy doing the delivery can’t make close to the legal minimum wage.

ydoethur · August 15

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Taz said:
Of course I’d listen, I’d just try to do it discretely as if I wasn’t listening.
This is the benefit of headphones, I can pretend to be listening to the music, but would have paused the music so I could listen.

One time I did that the woman called the bloke ‘needle dick’ and I burst out laughing.
Did you say you were listening to Round the Horne?
No, I was more than likely to be listening to Radiohead.

Are you saying that Radiohead are a bunch of needle dicks?

If so it was nice knowing you.

Malmesbury · August 15

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:
FPT
Stuartinromford said:

Sandpit said:

Malmesbury said:
a
Sandpit said:

Malmesbury said:
a
Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Stuartinromford said:

Malmesbury said:

Stuartinromford said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

Stuartinromford said:

Nigelb said:
Here's more recent polling that you won't hear Trump or Farage supporters mentioning.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/692522/surge-concern-immigration-abated.aspx
...Americans have grown markedly more positive toward immigration over the past year, with the share wanting immigration reduced dropping from 55% in 2024 to 30% today. At the same time, a record-high 79% of U.S. adults say immigration is a good thing for the country.

These shifts reverse a four-year trend of rising concern about immigration that began in 2021 and reflect changes among all major party groups...
The paradox of the migration debate.

Most people want the total numbers to fall, but don't want the numbers in most migration scenarios to fall. It's not quite "less migrants in theory but not in practice", but it's pretty close;

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52704-is-there-public-support-for-large-scale-removals-of-migrants

The way that most people square that circle is to massively overestimate the proportion of immigration that is irregular/illegal because the boats are so visible. From that YouGov link,

Our research shows that almost half of Britons (47%) think there are more migrants staying in the UK illegally rather than legally, including fully a third of the public (32%) who think the illegal figure is “much higher”.

As our American friends are currently discovering, anti-immigrant talk is much more popular than anti-immigrant action.
Those YouGov findings are really important. The radical right has done a very good propaganda job of convincing people that most immigrants are illegal and coming for benefits. Instead of pandering to them, the Labour government needs to push back and make clear how that's not true and that immigrants are mostly the sort of immigration people like.
lol

You should put that on the bus along with "they're not really 4 star hotels because often room service is slow"
Centrist dads don't understand the difference between facts and truth. And they get all upset when others do.
You are Jeffrey Archer and I claim my five pounds.

Yeah, there's some truth in that- visceral experience beats numbers. To a degree. But there are two important buts.

First is that human progress tends to come from paying more attention to the factual and less to the visceral. It's uncomfortable, but it's what makes our lives relatively pleasant.

Second is that numbers can only be trumped so far. We have a situation where a near-majority of British people think that there is more illegal migration to the UK than legal. And that's not true. It's a lie. How the hell do you run a country on the basis of a lie, even if it's commonly held? And why is that lie so commonly held? (See also polling that shows that the public think that international aid and MPs expenses are meaningful items in the national budget.)

I don't really have answers to either of those questions, but they're important.
How many do you think there are?

I've seen reasonable estimates that there are about 500K people in the workforce who don't have the right to work here.
A lot, but not a majority. After all, net migration last year was about 400k. The curse of flows and totals strikes again.

(And to put 0.5 million in context, the total UK workforce is about 34 million.)
So in a company employing 68 people, on average one of them will be illegal.
Some estimates on the numbers of illegals are significantly lower. Even so, I suspect the illegals are concentrated in specific geographies and workplaces. Most of them overstayers or on visas not permitting working rather than completely in the underground economy.
Agreed, there will be specific industries and even companies with much higher concentrations.

Are the delivery companies like Deliveroo still hiding behind their drivers being contractors and not employees, in the same way they allow their drivers to use illegal vehicles such as unregistered motorbikes with no insurance?

It would be good to see a test case of a large company that’s clearly not doing due diligence on the people working under its brand name.
Yup - look for companies using "contractors" for low paid jobs. Often with clauses allowing the "contractors" to farm out work to others.

Some Deliveroo "riders" are actually gangmasters for groups of workers - they get the contract and parcel out the work. It's a big business and full of utter scumbags.
Does there ever appear to be an acknowledgement of the issue from government, let alone anything that looks like a plan to clamp down on the illegal working practices?
Nope - virtually certain that industry representatives are working the political scene. Just as the Leicester garment trade did.
I wonder how high unemployment needs to go before it makes political sense to actually look at these cowboys. Ditto the fake colleges which appear to be visa farms for restaurants and ‘taxis’.
In economic terms, probably never. People like cheap taxis, food delivery and restaurants, and would be awfully cross if they had to pay non-exploitative rates for them. It doesn't really affect unemployment either, because at proper rates, the jobs just don't exist.

You don't need a conspiracy, beyond the British love of a bargain.
Perhaps one can be overly optimistic about the efforts a Labour government would put in to tackling exploitative labour practices in nascent industries.

Or do they simply not care because there’s no Union representing this particular group of exploited workers, and some of their bosses are Party donors or activists?
One man's expolitative labour practices, are another's cheap products and services.

Is that you, Simon Legree?

MarqueeMark · August 15

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:
Well one advantage of this big meeting later today, is that I’ve not heard an air raid siren for 72 hours.

Not that I’m particularly optimistic about the meeting itself, still not convinced that the aggressor wants peace, or at least is prepared to make an acceptable offer to cease fire and allow negotiations.

That said, Trump’s somewhat unconventional approach to diplomacy has yielded some surprising results so far, such as the agreement last week between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but I still don’t think the Russians want a ‘peace’ acceptable to Ukraine and their European supporters.
The question is what happens next? Will Trump take the refusal of the Ukrainians and Europeans to agree to his peace proposal as evidence that they are the ones who are being intransigent and therefore use it as an excuse to further reduce support to Ukraine?

Uh-huh...

moonshine · August 15

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:
Well one advantage of this big meeting later today, is that I’ve not heard an air raid siren for 72 hours.

Not that I’m particularly optimistic about the meeting itself, still not convinced that the aggressor wants peace, or at least is prepared to make an acceptable offer to cease fire and allow negotiations.

That said, Trump’s somewhat unconventional approach to diplomacy has yielded some surprising results so far, such as the agreement last week between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but I still don’t think the Russians want a ‘peace’ acceptable to Ukraine and their European supporters.
The question is what happens next? Will Trump take the refusal of the Ukrainians and Europeans to agree to his peace proposal as evidence that they are the ones who are being intransigent and therefore use it as an excuse to further reduce support to Ukraine?
Uh-huh...

What odds do people give of a ceasefire coming out of this summit? I give it 30-40% but i suspect most are far more pessimistic than that. Anyone care to pitch it higher than 40%?

Pulpstar · August 15

kinabalu said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:
On topic, I can think of few things less interesting than other people's arguments.
Which does, I guess, raise the question of why I spend so much time on here.
I still recall (and fear I am forever doomed to recall) a prolonged spat between IshmaelZ and Nigel Foremain about the size of their respective endowments.

This was in the bad old days before the OSA of course. We'd be protected from that sort of thing now.

Even the worst legislation has its uses...

TheScreamingEagles · August 15

kinabalu said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:
On topic, I can think of few things less interesting than other people's arguments.
Which does, I guess, raise the question of why I spend so much time on here.
I still recall (and fear I am forever doomed to recall) a prolonged spat between IshmaelZ and Nigel Foremain about the size of their respective endowments.

This was in the bad old days before the OSA of course. We'd be protected from that sort of thing now.

Would you like a nice photo of Nigel Farage to take your mind off that spat?

Andy_JS · August 15

Today has been a very good day for Nigel.

kinabalu · August 15

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:
Well one advantage of this big meeting later today, is that I’ve not heard an air raid siren for 72 hours.

Not that I’m particularly optimistic about the meeting itself, still not convinced that the aggressor wants peace, or at least is prepared to make an acceptable offer to cease fire and allow negotiations.

That said, Trump’s somewhat unconventional approach to diplomacy has yielded some surprising results so far, such as the agreement last week between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but I still don’t think the Russians want a ‘peace’ acceptable to Ukraine and their European supporters.
The question is what happens next? Will Trump take the refusal of the Ukrainians and Europeans to agree to his peace proposal as evidence that they are the ones who are being intransigent and therefore use it as an excuse to further reduce support to Ukraine?

Yes, this 'summit' is a farce on one level but also a clarifying event. Does President Trump take no deal as the trigger to increase support for Ukraine (punishing Russia) or to walk away from the conflict (punishing Ukraine)?

kinabalu · August 15

moonshine said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:
Well one advantage of this big meeting later today, is that I’ve not heard an air raid siren for 72 hours.

Not that I’m particularly optimistic about the meeting itself, still not convinced that the aggressor wants peace, or at least is prepared to make an acceptable offer to cease fire and allow negotiations.

That said, Trump’s somewhat unconventional approach to diplomacy has yielded some surprising results so far, such as the agreement last week between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but I still don’t think the Russians want a ‘peace’ acceptable to Ukraine and their European supporters.
The question is what happens next? Will Trump take the refusal of the Ukrainians and Europeans to agree to his peace proposal as evidence that they are the ones who are being intransigent and therefore use it as an excuse to further reduce support to Ukraine?
Uh-huh...
What odds do people give of a ceasefire coming out of this summit? I give it 30-40% but i suspect most are far more pessimistic than that. Anyone care to pitch it higher than 40%?

Short ceasefire for optics quite likely. Meaningful one leading to substantive negotiations very unlikely.

Roger · August 15

Perversely if the people are well known which has happened in my presence more than once I'd do everything I can to hear nothing and get out of earshot as soon as possible. There's something unpleasant about keeping someone elses secrets when its none of your business. If they're strangers I wouldn't care one way or the other

Stark_Dawning · August 15

Andy_JS said:
Today has been a very good day for Nigel.

Really? The only news about Nigel I've seen today is John Healey branding him a stooge of Putin, which even the Speccie took some delight in. Has Nigel been counterpunching?

TheScreamingEagles · August 15

Cars these days have too many gadgets.

I tried to reverse, and it played a video of somebody getting run over by a car.

Sandpit · August 15

Alleged video of the aftermath of an attack on a Russian weapons factory. Ukranian source.

https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/1956386045848584278

Ukraine appears to be pushing hard their own kinetic ‘sanctions’ on Russian military facilities this week.

Nigelb · August 15

The gift that keeps on giving.

SARS-CoV-2 infection and new-onset type 1 diabetes in the post-acute period among children and young people in England

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dme.70084
Methods

In this population cohort, we used data on all hospital activity in England to estimate type 1 diabetes incidence among CYP aged 0–17 exposed to SARS-CoV-2 between May 2020 and August 2022, from day 28 after a positive test for the following 6 months. We compared this with unexposed CYP who were hospitalized for elective procedures or following trauma during the pandemic, and in the 2 years prior to the pandemic (historic cohorts). We excluded CYP with prior chronic illnesses. We undertook Cox regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation and season of index date, and stratified by periods when different SARS-CoV-2 variants were dominant.

Results

There were 1,087,604 CYP in the exposed cohort, 143,748 in the trauma cohort, 253,368 in the elective cohort, 160,925 in the historic trauma cohort and 388,673 in the historic elective cohort. Hazard of developing type 1 diabetes was significantly higher among those exposed than unexposed CYP: 2.4 [1.58–3.64] relative to the trauma cohort, 2.9 [2.00–4.13] relative to the elective cohort, 4.2 [2.56–7.04] relative to the historic trauma cohort and 2.4 [1.81–3.10] relative to the historic elective cohort. Associations may be strongest during the Delta period.

Conclusions

SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with subsequent incident type 1 diabetes in the 1–7 months after an acute infection in previously healthy CYP.

FrancisUrquhart · August 15

Would you report shoplifting for a quid?

The (Iceland) retailer's executive chairman, Richard Walker, said that shoppers who alert staff to a theft in progress will receive a £1 credit on their Iceland Bonus Card.

Surely they could have done £20 of in store credit, as bottom line to them it will be more like £10

Sandpit · August 15

moonshine said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:
Well one advantage of this big meeting later today, is that I’ve not heard an air raid siren for 72 hours.

Not that I’m particularly optimistic about the meeting itself, still not convinced that the aggressor wants peace, or at least is prepared to make an acceptable offer to cease fire and allow negotiations.

That said, Trump’s somewhat unconventional approach to diplomacy has yielded some surprising results so far, such as the agreement last week between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but I still don’t think the Russians want a ‘peace’ acceptable to Ukraine and their European supporters.
The question is what happens next? Will Trump take the refusal of the Ukrainians and Europeans to agree to his peace proposal as evidence that they are the ones who are being intransigent and therefore use it as an excuse to further reduce support to Ukraine?
Uh-huh...
What odds do people give of a ceasefire coming out of this summit? I give it 30-40% but i suspect most are far more pessimistic than that. Anyone care to pitch it higher than 40%?

Nope, I think I’m at about 25%, that the Russians agree to stop fighting if the Ukranians stop fighting, and for further talks to then take place.

I’m about 75% that the Russians will try and impose conditions totally unacceptable to Ukraine at this point, as they’ve always done previously.

I also think that the Ukranian and European leaders made their position very clear to Trump and Vance in their virtual summit earlier this week.

Fairliered · August 15

Are you calling me a liar @TSE? I find it embarrassing if a couple argue in my space. So much so that if they argue on a train I will move to a different carriage. If they argue in a cafe I will leave. If the usual suspects on here get too aggressive I scroll past.

CatMan · August 15

FrancisUrquhart said:
Would you report shoplifting for a quid?

The retailer's executive chairman, Richard Walker, said that shoppers who alert staff to a theft in progress will receive a £1 credit on their Iceland Bonus Card.

Make it a hundred and I might, depending on the social class of the shoplifter

Taz · August 15

Stark_Dawning said:

Andy_JS said:
Today has been a very good day for Nigel.
Really? The only news about Nigel I've seen today is John Healey branding him a stooge of Putin, which even the Speccie took some delight in. Has Nigel been counterpunching?

Wow, John Healey. That’s destroyed Farage. Will he ever recover ?

Mind you I’ve seen nowt as I’m watching breadmaking videos on YouTube,

Sandpit · August 15

FrancisUrquhart said:
Would you report shoplifting for a quid?

The retailer's executive chairman, Richard Walker, said that shoppers who alert staff to a theft in progress will receive a £1 credit on their Iceland Bonus Card.

LOL. Make it £100, and a gift voucher handed out rather than a data-collecting loyalty card, and people might be interested.

malcolmg · August 15

moonshine said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:
Well one advantage of this big meeting later today, is that I’ve not heard an air raid siren for 72 hours.

Not that I’m particularly optimistic about the meeting itself, still not convinced that the aggressor wants peace, or at least is prepared to make an acceptable offer to cease fire and allow negotiations.

That said, Trump’s somewhat unconventional approach to diplomacy has yielded some surprising results so far, such as the agreement last week between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but I still don’t think the Russians want a ‘peace’ acceptable to Ukraine and their European supporters.
The question is what happens next? Will Trump take the refusal of the Ukrainians and Europeans to agree to his peace proposal as evidence that they are the ones who are being intransigent and therefore use it as an excuse to further reduce support to Ukraine?
Uh-huh...
What odds do people give of a ceasefire coming out of this summit? I give it 30-40% but i suspect most are far more pessimistic than that. Anyone care to pitch it higher than 40%?

Less than 10%

FrancisUrquhart · August 15

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Would you report shoplifting for a quid?

The retailer's executive chairman, Richard Walker, said that shoppers who alert staff to a theft in progress will receive a £1 credit on their Iceland Bonus Card.
LOL. Make it £100, and a gift voucher handed out rather than a data-collecting loyalty card, and people might be interested.

It is like they missed off 2 noughts on that announcement. The only people reporting it for a £1 were reporting regardless of any reward.

I think i would be pretty insulted if the manager then appeared and said thanks so much for bringing that to our attention, we want to show our appreciation, here is £1 off your shop.

Roger · August 15

Andy_JS said:
Today has been a very good day for Nigel.

Depends. For his racist disciples possibly. For the rest of us it just reinforced what we already know that he is a nasty opportunist racist and if he gets anywhere near power pack your bags because the UK would be a place you wouldn't want to live in.

Leon · August 15

Who could have predicted this? Really, who? It’s like a bolt from the blue. So totally unexpected it leaves you gasping at the surprise

“Libyan migrant, 24, who arrived in Britain by small boat is arrested after three people injured in knife attack”

https://x.com/dailymail/status/1956384771254227115?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

algarkirk · August 15

kinabalu said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:
Well one advantage of this big meeting later today, is that I’ve not heard an air raid siren for 72 hours.

Not that I’m particularly optimistic about the meeting itself, still not convinced that the aggressor wants peace, or at least is prepared to make an acceptable offer to cease fire and allow negotiations.

That said, Trump’s somewhat unconventional approach to diplomacy has yielded some surprising results so far, such as the agreement last week between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but I still don’t think the Russians want a ‘peace’ acceptable to Ukraine and their European supporters.
The question is what happens next? Will Trump take the refusal of the Ukrainians and Europeans to agree to his peace proposal as evidence that they are the ones who are being intransigent and therefore use it as an excuse to further reduce support to Ukraine?
Yes, this 'summit' is a farce on one level but also a clarifying event. Does President Trump take no deal as the trigger to increase support for Ukraine (punishing Russia) or to walk away from the conflict (punishing Ukraine)?

Trump is rather good at not doing 'clarifying events'. I expect this to continue. Joining the dots I expect a continuation of the situation whereby it is not possible to see clearly, and for him to say clearly, that he wants Russia to lose and Ukraine to win, that Russia is in the wrong and Ukraine is in the right.

Dopermean · August 15

TheScreamingEagles said:
Cars these days have too many gadgets.

I tried to reverse, and it played a video of somebody getting run over by a car.

My EV did that when I first got it, then the seat shoved me in the back... seems to have resolved itself now

Sandpit · August 15

Another Russian government plane in the air, just crossing into US airspace.

https://x.com/flightradar24/status/1956391069404278884

Plenty of Ukranian sources saying that the real Putin doesn’t like flying because of the danger, and the reason for the 10 days between the announcement of this meeting and the happening of it, is to allow him to mostly travel by train. That’s if the real Putin even turns up, there’s several body doubles out there.

Dopermean · August 15

malcolmg said:

moonshine said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:
Well one advantage of this big meeting later today, is that I’ve not heard an air raid siren for 72 hours.

Not that I’m particularly optimistic about the meeting itself, still not convinced that the aggressor wants peace, or at least is prepared to make an acceptable offer to cease fire and allow negotiations.

That said, Trump’s somewhat unconventional approach to diplomacy has yielded some surprising results so far, such as the agreement last week between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but I still don’t think the Russians want a ‘peace’ acceptable to Ukraine and their European supporters.
The question is what happens next? Will Trump take the refusal of the Ukrainians and Europeans to agree to his peace proposal as evidence that they are the ones who are being intransigent and therefore use it as an excuse to further reduce support to Ukraine?
Uh-huh...
What odds do people give of a ceasefire coming out of this summit? I give it 30-40% but i suspect most are far more pessimistic than that. Anyone care to pitch it higher than 40%?
Less than 10%

and 90% chance of Trump stopping weapons to Ukraine

Sandpit · August 15

Dammit, shouldn’t have made the comment about it being 72 hours without an air raid siren…

🚨📢

kinabalu · August 15

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:
Well one advantage of this big meeting later today, is that I’ve not heard an air raid siren for 72 hours.

Not that I’m particularly optimistic about the meeting itself, still not convinced that the aggressor wants peace, or at least is prepared to make an acceptable offer to cease fire and allow negotiations.

That said, Trump’s somewhat unconventional approach to diplomacy has yielded some surprising results so far, such as the agreement last week between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but I still don’t think the Russians want a ‘peace’ acceptable to Ukraine and their European supporters.
The question is what happens next? Will Trump take the refusal of the Ukrainians and Europeans to agree to his peace proposal as evidence that they are the ones who are being intransigent and therefore use it as an excuse to further reduce support to Ukraine?
Yes, this 'summit' is a farce on one level but also a clarifying event. Does President Trump take no deal as the trigger to increase support for Ukraine (punishing Russia) or to walk away from the conflict (punishing Ukraine)?
Trump is rather good at not doing 'clarifying events'. I expect this to continue. Joining the dots I expect a continuation of the situation whereby it is not possible to see clearly, and for him to say clearly, that he wants Russia to lose and Ukraine to win, that Russia is in the wrong and Ukraine is in the right.

Yes but he'll have to jump one way or the other once it becomes clear the war goes on. US actions defining this, I mean, not his word salads.

malcolmg · August 15

Sandpit said:
Another Russian government plane in the air, just crossing into US airspace.

https://x.com/flightradar24/status/1956391069404278884

Plenty of Ukranian sources saying that the real Putin doesn’t like flying because of the danger, and the reason for the 10 days between the announcement of this meeting and the happening of it, is to allow him to mostly travel by train. That’s if the real Putin even turns up, there’s several body doubles out there.

He will have sent some dupe to talk to Trump

FrancisUrquhart · August 15

TheScreamingEagles said:
Cars these days have too many gadgets.

I tried to reverse, and it played a video of somebody getting run over by a car.

I have been prepping for going to China and apparently there are a number of companies in China doing their version of Waymo. In true tech style and particularly Chinese tech, move fast, break stuff, apparently unlike Waymo that is very cautious and risk adverse to driving style, the Chinese robo-taxis drive like a local including excessive use of the horn, cutting in, a blind eye to sticking to speed limits and happy to just stop in the middle of a busy road to let you out. I ain't walking out in front of one of those because it will probably just run you down and then tell you it was your fault.

AnneJGP · August 15

kinabalu said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:
Well one advantage of this big meeting later today, is that I’ve not heard an air raid siren for 72 hours.

Not that I’m particularly optimistic about the meeting itself, still not convinced that the aggressor wants peace, or at least is prepared to make an acceptable offer to cease fire and allow negotiations.

That said, Trump’s somewhat unconventional approach to diplomacy has yielded some surprising results so far, such as the agreement last week between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but I still don’t think the Russians want a ‘peace’ acceptable to Ukraine and their European supporters.
The question is what happens next? Will Trump take the refusal of the Ukrainians and Europeans to agree to his peace proposal as evidence that they are the ones who are being intransigent and therefore use it as an excuse to further reduce support to Ukraine?
Yes, this 'summit' is a farce on one level but also a clarifying event. Does President Trump take no deal as the trigger to increase support for Ukraine (punishing Russia) or to walk away from the conflict (punishing Ukraine)?

My uneducated and uninformed guess is he'll end up doing both.

Sandpit · August 15

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Cars these days have too many gadgets.

I tried to reverse, and it played a video of somebody getting run over by a car.
I have been prepping for going to China and apparently there are a number of companies in China doing their version of Waymo. In true tech style and particularly Chinese tech, move fast, break stuff, apparently unlike Waymo that is very cautious and risk adverse to driving style, the Chinese robot-taxis drive like a local including excessive use of the horn, cutting in, a blind eye to sticking to speed limits etc. I ain't walking out in front of one of those because it will probably just run you down and then tell you it was your fault.

LOL that should be fun, for some definition of ‘fun’.

kinabalu · August 15

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Would you report shoplifting for a quid?

The retailer's executive chairman, Richard Walker, said that shoppers who alert staff to a theft in progress will receive a £1 credit on their Iceland Bonus Card.
LOL. Make it £100, and a gift voucher handed out rather than a data-collecting loyalty card, and people might be interested.
It is like they missed off 2 noughts on that announcement. The only people reporting it for a £1 were reporting regardless of any reward.

I think i would be pretty insulted if the manager then appeared and said thanks so much for bringing that to our attention, we want to show our appreciation, here is £1 off your shop.

Packet of fish fingers?

FrancisUrquhart · August 15

kinabalu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Would you report shoplifting for a quid?

The retailer's executive chairman, Richard Walker, said that shoppers who alert staff to a theft in progress will receive a £1 credit on their Iceland Bonus Card.
LOL. Make it £100, and a gift voucher handed out rather than a data-collecting loyalty card, and people might be interested.
It is like they missed off 2 noughts on that announcement. The only people reporting it for a £1 were reporting regardless of any reward.

I think i would be pretty insulted if the manager then appeared and said thanks so much for bringing that to our attention, we want to show our appreciation, here is £1 off your shop.
Packet of fish fingers?

Being on the poorer end of things growing up my mum went to Iceland for some of the weekly shop. At that time, £5-10 appeared to buy you a freezer full of food. I seemed to remember they used to do these deals with all this for £5 and it was a big list of ultra-processed stuff.

I haven't been in one since then, I am guessing a £1 won't even get your a packet of fish fingers these days.

Andy_JS · August 15

Utterly dreadful performance by the Birmingham Phoenix women's team at Headingley.

StillWaters · August 15

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:
On topic, I can think of few things less interesting than other people's arguments.
Which does, I guess, raise the question of why I spend so much time on here.

Because you would feel guilty if you left us exposed to @TheScreamingEagles whims and fancies?

Daveyboy1961 · August 15

malcolmg said:

Sandpit said:
Another Russian government plane in the air, just crossing into US airspace.

https://x.com/flightradar24/status/1956391069404278884

Plenty of Ukranian sources saying that the real Putin doesn’t like flying because of the danger, and the reason for the 10 days between the announcement of this meeting and the happening of it, is to allow him to mostly travel by train. That’s if the real Putin even turns up, there’s several body doubles out there.
He will have sent some dupe to talk to Trump

A dupe for a dupe...

DecrepiterJohnL · August 15

Sandpit said:
Alleged video of the aftermath of an attack on a Russian weapons factory. Ukranian source.

https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/1956386045848584278

Ukraine appears to be pushing hard their own kinetic ‘sanctions’ on Russian military facilities this week.

Irrelevant. If there is a ceasefire or even peace agreement based on freezing front lines and land swaps, Ukraine gains nothing by this and Russia will replace whatever they've just lost.

Sandpit · August 15

Sandpit said:
Dammit, shouldn’t have made the comment about it being 72 hours without an air raid siren…

🚨📢

And relax….

All clear. The authorities here have got pretty good at seeing exactly where the threats are heading, and clearing quickly alarms in other areas.

carnforth · August 15

rcs1000 said:
On topic, I can think of few things less interesting than other people's arguments.

I spent five hours on a train a few days ago listening to an Australian couple - and their offspring - going at it.

Worked out who the mother was from eavesdropping. Googled her. Solicitor specialising in mediation!

FrancisUrquhart · August 15

carnforth said:

rcs1000 said:
On topic, I can think of few things less interesting than other people's arguments.
I spent five hours on a train a few days ago listening to an Australian couple - and their offspring - going at it.

Worked out who the mother was from eavesdropping. Solicitor specialising in mediation!

People on trains seem to loss the realisation that there are other people that can hear you. The sort of things you hear getting discussed on phone calls.

algarkirk · August 15

malcolmg said:

moonshine said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:
Well one advantage of this big meeting later today, is that I’ve not heard an air raid siren for 72 hours.

Not that I’m particularly optimistic about the meeting itself, still not convinced that the aggressor wants peace, or at least is prepared to make an acceptable offer to cease fire and allow negotiations.

That said, Trump’s somewhat unconventional approach to diplomacy has yielded some surprising results so far, such as the agreement last week between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but I still don’t think the Russians want a ‘peace’ acceptable to Ukraine and their European supporters.
The question is what happens next? Will Trump take the refusal of the Ukrainians and Europeans to agree to his peace proposal as evidence that they are the ones who are being intransigent and therefore use it as an excuse to further reduce support to Ukraine?
Uh-huh...
What odds do people give of a ceasefire coming out of this summit? I give it 30-40% but i suspect most are far more pessimistic than that. Anyone care to pitch it higher than 40%?
Less than 10%

Close to zero unless it is in exchange for a lot of Ukrainian land. Sadly a cease fire in exchange for Crimea would seem a decent outcome.

Stuartinromford · August 15

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Would you report shoplifting for a quid?

The retailer's executive chairman, Richard Walker, said that shoppers who alert staff to a theft in progress will receive a £1 credit on their Iceland Bonus Card.
LOL. Make it £100, and a gift voucher handed out rather than a data-collecting loyalty card, and people might be interested.
It is like they missed off 2 noughts on that announcement. The only people reporting it for a £1 were reporting regardless of any reward.

I think i would be pretty insulted if the manager then appeared and said thanks so much for bringing that to our attention, we want to show our appreciation, here is £1 off your shop.

Highlights the problem.
At £ 100 bounty, it's likely to be cheaper for Iceland to just overlook shoplifting.
At £ 1 bounty, it's not really worth anyone shopping the shoplifters.

There might be a mutually-beneficial number somewhere between, but it's not inevitable.

It's the same problem TfL and the police have. What do you do about small bits of crime where the cost of following them up is more than the value of the crime? Now what do you do when your finances are really really tight?

Cicero · August 15

Sandpit said:

moonshine said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:
Well one advantage of this big meeting later today, is that I’ve not heard an air raid siren for 72 hours.

Not that I’m particularly optimistic about the meeting itself, still not convinced that the aggressor wants peace, or at least is prepared to make an acceptable offer to cease fire and allow negotiations.

That said, Trump’s somewhat unconventional approach to diplomacy has yielded some surprising results so far, such as the agreement last week between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but I still don’t think the Russians want a ‘peace’ acceptable to Ukraine and their European supporters.
The question is what happens next? Will Trump take the refusal of the Ukrainians and Europeans to agree to his peace proposal as evidence that they are the ones who are being intransigent and therefore use it as an excuse to further reduce support to Ukraine?
Uh-huh...
What odds do people give of a ceasefire coming out of this summit? I give it 30-40% but i suspect most are far more pessimistic than that. Anyone care to pitch it higher than 40%?
Nope, I think I’m at about 25%, that the Russians agree to stop fighting if the Ukranians stop fighting, and for further talks to then take place.

I’m about 75% that the Russians will try and impose conditions totally unacceptable to Ukraine at this point, as they’ve always done previously.

I also think that the Ukranian and European leaders made their position very clear to Trump and Vance in their virtual summit earlier this week.

The insolence of Lavrov might be a misjudgment too far. Even the MAGA fools might draw the line at such clumsy trolling.

MattW · August 15

On Topic: Ask a stupid question ....

Jim_Miller · August 15

Off topic: We tend to forget President William Howard Taft because he came between two more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.

Taft was giving a speech, when a man in the crowd threw a head of cabbage at him. The man missed, which wasn’t easy, because Taft was a big guy.

Taft looked at the cabbage for a bit, turned to the crowd, and said: “Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head.”

I’ve liked that for two reasons: It’s funny, and it almost certainly changed the situation from "let’s fight” to “let’s laugh”. Which you should do, if you can, at least 90 percent of the time.

moonshine · August 15

kinabalu said:

moonshine said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:
Well one advantage of this big meeting later today, is that I’ve not heard an air raid siren for 72 hours.

Not that I’m particularly optimistic about the meeting itself, still not convinced that the aggressor wants peace, or at least is prepared to make an acceptable offer to cease fire and allow negotiations.

That said, Trump’s somewhat unconventional approach to diplomacy has yielded some surprising results so far, such as the agreement last week between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but I still don’t think the Russians want a ‘peace’ acceptable to Ukraine and their European supporters.
The question is what happens next? Will Trump take the refusal of the Ukrainians and Europeans to agree to his peace proposal as evidence that they are the ones who are being intransigent and therefore use it as an excuse to further reduce support to Ukraine?
Uh-huh...
What odds do people give of a ceasefire coming out of this summit? I give it 30-40% but i suspect most are far more pessimistic than that. Anyone care to pitch it higher than 40%?
Short ceasefire for optics quite likely. Meaningful one leading to substantive negotiations very unlikely.

This feels right. Then again the chances of a lasting ceasefire are materially higher if there’s one already there just for optics

kinabalu · August 15

FrancisUrquhart said:

kinabalu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Would you report shoplifting for a quid?

The retailer's executive chairman, Richard Walker, said that shoppers who alert staff to a theft in progress will receive a £1 credit on their Iceland Bonus Card.
LOL. Make it £100, and a gift voucher handed out rather than a data-collecting loyalty card, and people might be interested.
It is like they missed off 2 noughts on that announcement. The only people reporting it for a £1 were reporting regardless of any reward.

I think i would be pretty insulted if the manager then appeared and said thanks so much for bringing that to our attention, we want to show our appreciation, here is £1 off your shop.
Packet of fish fingers?
Being on the poorer end of things growing up my mum went to Iceland for some of the weekly shop. At that time, £5-10 appeared to buy you a freezer full of food. I seemed to remember they used to do these deals with all this for £5 and it was a big list of ultra-processed stuff.

I haven't been in one since then, I am guessing a £1 won't even get your a packet of fish fingers these days.

Well even if it does I agree it's a bit of a miserly offer. You'd have to report a lot of incidents to make it worthwhile. I guess you could aim for one a week and then if you didn't spend it you could have £50 after a year. That sounds more attractive. That's pizza and beers for six. But still, no, not for me. I'd pass.

boulay · August 15

Fairliered said:
Are you calling me a liar @TSE? I find it embarrassing if a couple argue in my space. So much so that if they argue on a train I will move to a different carriage. If they argue in a cafe I will leave. If the usual suspects on here get too aggressive I scroll past.

I’m similar, I suffer terribly from fremdschämen and can’t stand other people arguing or making a public tit of themselves so prefer to move away before the earth swallows me up.

MattW · August 15

Also on topic.

What we see is @TSE projecting his self-image

.

FrancisUrquhart · August 15

kinabalu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kinabalu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Would you report shoplifting for a quid?

The retailer's executive chairman, Richard Walker, said that shoppers who alert staff to a theft in progress will receive a £1 credit on their Iceland Bonus Card.
LOL. Make it £100, and a gift voucher handed out rather than a data-collecting loyalty card, and people might be interested.
It is like they missed off 2 noughts on that announcement. The only people reporting it for a £1 were reporting regardless of any reward.

I think i would be pretty insulted if the manager then appeared and said thanks so much for bringing that to our attention, we want to show our appreciation, here is £1 off your shop.
Packet of fish fingers?
Being on the poorer end of things growing up my mum went to Iceland for some of the weekly shop. At that time, £5-10 appeared to buy you a freezer full of food. I seemed to remember they used to do these deals with all this for £5 and it was a big list of ultra-processed stuff.

I haven't been in one since then, I am guessing a £1 won't even get your a packet of fish fingers these days.
Well even if it does I agree it's a bit of a miserly offer. You'd have to report a lot of incidents to make it worthwhile. I guess you could aim for one a week and then if you didn't spend it you could have £50 after a year. That sounds more attractive. That's pizza and beers for six. But still, no, not for me. I'd pass.

Its for the sort of people who fill in YouGov surveys for money ;-)

kinabalu · August 15

moonshine said:

kinabalu said:

moonshine said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:
Well one advantage of this big meeting later today, is that I’ve not heard an air raid siren for 72 hours.

Not that I’m particularly optimistic about the meeting itself, still not convinced that the aggressor wants peace, or at least is prepared to make an acceptable offer to cease fire and allow negotiations.

That said, Trump’s somewhat unconventional approach to diplomacy has yielded some surprising results so far, such as the agreement last week between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but I still don’t think the Russians want a ‘peace’ acceptable to Ukraine and their European supporters.
The question is what happens next? Will Trump take the refusal of the Ukrainians and Europeans to agree to his peace proposal as evidence that they are the ones who are being intransigent and therefore use it as an excuse to further reduce support to Ukraine?
Uh-huh...
What odds do people give of a ceasefire coming out of this summit? I give it 30-40% but i suspect most are far more pessimistic than that. Anyone care to pitch it higher than 40%?
Short ceasefire for optics quite likely. Meaningful one leading to substantive negotiations very unlikely.
This feels right. Then again the chances of a lasting ceasefire are materially higher if there’s one already there just for optics

Hmm maybe. I have low expectations but I'd love to be surprised.

Dopermean · August 15

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Cars these days have too many gadgets.

I tried to reverse, and it played a video of somebody getting run over by a car.
I have been prepping for going to China and apparently there are a number of companies in China doing their version of Waymo. In true tech style and particularly Chinese tech, move fast, break stuff, apparently unlike Waymo that is very cautious and risk adverse to driving style, the Chinese robo-taxis drive like a local including excessive use of the horn, cutting in, a blind eye to sticking to speed limits and happy to just stop in the middle of a busy road to let you out. I ain't walking out in front of one of those because it will probably just run you down and then tell you it was your fault.

Is that for the Sicilian market?

Took me half an hour or so to realize that they don't use parking spaces because they'd never get back out, they just stop in the inside lane. The genius move was stopping on the zebra crossing then getting out to cross the road.

HYUFD · August 15

Re the trial of the Labour councillor acquitted of encouraging violent disorder at Snaresbrook Crown Court. Had be been tried by a jury at Basildon Crown Court I venture he may well have been found guilty.

That is one of the drawbacks of jury trial it can depend on where the jury is drawn from, especially if a political, racial or religious element. However to his credit Jacob Rees Mogg still accepts that as he believes in juries in principle even if he disagreed with verdicts like the slave owner statue damage acquittal in Bristol.

Shame Cleverly and Philp did not follow JRM but jumped on the populist bandwagon earlier before thinking through the logic of their comments ie that all trials should be judge only with no juries at Crown Court level.

Jim_Miller · August 15

I like to think that most Brits would listen enough to make sure that the "jaw jaw" doesn't turn into a "war war".

carnforth · August 15

FrancisUrquhart said:

kinabalu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Would you report shoplifting for a quid?

The retailer's executive chairman, Richard Walker, said that shoppers who alert staff to a theft in progress will receive a £1 credit on their Iceland Bonus Card.
LOL. Make it £100, and a gift voucher handed out rather than a data-collecting loyalty card, and people might be interested.
It is like they missed off 2 noughts on that announcement. The only people reporting it for a £1 were reporting regardless of any reward.

I think i would be pretty insulted if the manager then appeared and said thanks so much for bringing that to our attention, we want to show our appreciation, here is £1 off your shop.
Packet of fish fingers?
Being on the poorer end of things growing up my mum went to Iceland for some of the weekly shop. At that time, £5-10 appeared to buy you a freezer full of food. I seemed to remember they used to do these deals with all this for £5 and it was a big list of ultra-processed stuff.

I haven't been in one since then, I am guessing a £1 won't even get your a packet of fish fingers these days.

A full set!

https://www.iceland.co.uk/p/iceland-10-breaded-fillet-fish-fingers-250g/95444.html

Any more shrinkflation and you'll lose the thumbs!

MattW · August 15

FrancisUrquhart said:
Would you report shoplifting for a quid?

The retailer's executive chairman, Richard Walker, said that shoppers who alert staff to a theft in progress will receive a £1 credit on their Iceland Bonus Card.

If I see a shoplifter, I report them to the nearest member of staff where I judge it safe so to do.

What's the issue with making such a report?

Sometimes finding a member of staff can be a problem.

CatMan · August 15

Jim_Miller said:
Off topic: We tend to forget President William Howard Taft because he came between two more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.

Taft was giving a speech, when a man in the crowd threw a head of cabbage at him. The man missed, which wasn’t easy, because Taft was a big guy.

Taft looked at the cabbage for a bit, turned to the crowd, and said: “Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head.”

I’ve liked that for two reasons: It’s funny, and it almost certainly changed the situation from "let’s fight” to “let’s laugh”. Which you should do, if you can, at least 90 percent of the time.

Fun fact: Taft was the last US President to have facial hair. Will Vance be the next?

wooliedyed · August 15

Evening all.
Reference the court case earlier, the jury have at least blessed the country with a new wave of loathing for Labour and Starmer.
And they don't even have '14 years' to worm their way out of it.

Daveyboy1961 · August 15

CatMan said:

Jim_Miller said:
Off topic: We tend to forget President William Howard Taft because he came between two more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.

Taft was giving a speech, when a man in the crowd threw a head of cabbage at him. The man missed, which wasn’t easy, because Taft was a big guy.

Taft looked at the cabbage for a bit, turned to the crowd, and said: “Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head.”

I’ve liked that for two reasons: It’s funny, and it almost certainly changed the situation from "let’s fight” to “let’s laugh”. Which you should do, if you can, at least 90 percent of the time.
Fun fact: Taft was the last US President to have facial hair. Will Vance be the next?

Not sure, but he may be the next president to have a head like a manglewurzel

Andy_JS · August 15

wooliedyed said:
Evening all.
Reference the court case earlier, the jury have at least blessed the country with a new wave of loathing for Labour and Starmer.
And they don't even have '14 years' to worm their way out of it.

Maybe the jury were secret Nigel fans. (Joke).

wooliedyed · August 15

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:
Evening all.
Reference the court case earlier, the jury have at least blessed the country with a new wave of loathing for Labour and Starmer.
And they don't even have '14 years' to worm their way out of it.
Maybe the jury were secret Nigel fans. (Joke).

Labour should really go for it and push Ricky J as next Metro Mayor

stodge · August 15

wooliedyed said:
Evening all.
Reference the court case earlier, the jury have at least blessed the country with a new wave of loathing for Labour and Starmer.
And they don't even have '14 years' to worm their way out of it.

Don't get that at all - it was a jury verdict.

People may be upset about that but I don't see why they should blame the Government. They might blame the prosecution lawyer for not building a strong enough case.

rcs1000 · August 15

CatMan said:

Jim_Miller said:
Off topic: We tend to forget President William Howard Taft because he came between two more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.

Taft was giving a speech, when a man in the crowd threw a head of cabbage at him. The man missed, which wasn’t easy, because Taft was a big guy.

Taft looked at the cabbage for a bit, turned to the crowd, and said: “Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head.”

I’ve liked that for two reasons: It’s funny, and it almost certainly changed the situation from "let’s fight” to “let’s laugh”. Which you should do, if you can, at least 90 percent of the time.
Fun fact: Taft was the last US President to have facial hair. Will Vance be the next?

Not true.

Taft was the last President to have visible facial hair.

AnneJGP · August 15

MattW said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Would you report shoplifting for a quid?

The retailer's executive chairman, Richard Walker, said that shoppers who alert staff to a theft in progress will receive a £1 credit on their Iceland Bonus Card.
If I see a shoplifter, I report them to the nearest member of staff where I judge it safe so to do.

What's the issue with making such a report?

Sometimes finding a member of staff can be a problem.

I don't recall ever having noticed anyone shoplifting. I don't know what I'd do if I did. But I'm fairly sure that a reward for reporting would feel like an insult.

StillWaters · August 15

kinabalu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kinabalu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Would you report shoplifting for a quid?

The retailer's executive chairman, Richard Walker, said that shoppers who alert staff to a theft in progress will receive a £1 credit on their Iceland Bonus Card.
LOL. Make it £100, and a gift voucher handed out rather than a data-collecting loyalty card, and people might be interested.
It is like they missed off 2 noughts on that announcement. The only people reporting it for a £1 were reporting regardless of any reward.

I think i would be pretty insulted if the manager then appeared and said thanks so much for bringing that to our attention, we want to show our appreciation, here is £1 off your shop.
Packet of fish fingers?
Being on the poorer end of things growing up my mum went to Iceland for some of the weekly shop. At that time, £5-10 appeared to buy you a freezer full of food. I seemed to remember they used to do these deals with all this for £5 and it was a big list of ultra-processed stuff.

I haven't been in one since then, I am guessing a £1 won't even get your a packet of fish fingers these days.
Well even if it does I agree it's a bit of a miserly offer. You'd have to report a lot of incidents to make it worthwhile. I guess you could aim for one a week and then if you didn't spend it you could have £50 after a year. That sounds more attractive. That's pizza and beers for six. But still, no, not for me. I'd pass.

About as rewarding as filling in YouGov surveys then?

wooliedyed · August 15

stodge said:

wooliedyed said:
Evening all.
Reference the court case earlier, the jury have at least blessed the country with a new wave of loathing for Labour and Starmer.
And they don't even have '14 years' to worm their way out of it.
Don't get that at all - it was a jury verdict.

People may be upset about that but I don't see why they should blame the Government. They might blame the prosecution lawyer for not building a strong enough case.

The specific case isnt the issue though, its the perception, the aftermath of Southport and the fact Jones is a Labour councillor.
Its a blue touch paper thing.

Big_G_NorthWales · August 15

stodge said:

wooliedyed said:
Evening all.
Reference the court case earlier, the jury have at least blessed the country with a new wave of loathing for Labour and Starmer.
And they don't even have '14 years' to worm their way out of it.
Don't get that at all - it was a jury verdict.

People may be upset about that but I don't see why they should blame the Government. They might blame the prosecution lawyer for not building a strong enough case.

Good evening

No matter the rights and wrongs of this case it just adds to the 2 tier narrative and plays into Farage's hands whether we like it or not

DavidL · August 15

The risk factors in Alaska are obvious.

Trump, desperate for that peace prize, may well sell Ukraine out. After all, its not like it would be the first time. We have already had the appalling mineral deal and the withdrawal of support from Ukraine, along with the utterly disgraceful behaviour in the Oval office.

Putin, thinks he doesn't have much to lose. This war has been catastrophic for his country. They would now get slaughtered by Poland at a conventional level. All the inherited strength has been thrown away. Without a victory his life expectancy is surely short. He is not really in a position to compromise at all. Trump might accept that or he might not. The man is mad, who can tell.

The Europeans, including us, need to live with the consequences of Trump's idiocy. This is our continent and Russia is our neighbour. We cannot accept a reward for the naked aggression and war crimes committed by Putin.

The Ukraine is getting increasingly desperate. They are running out of men, literally. More gaps are appearing in their lines and Russia are making more rapid advances. They have retaliated wildly with drones and other remote weapons causing material damage to Russia but they are losing. What can they live with and how they can justify their own horrendous losses is hard to compute.

Squaring these circles would challenge a Metternich or a Palmerston and there are none of those on offer. I think there will be no deal and I fear that Ukraine cannot last much longer. Europe needs to step up to do all we can to help them both for their sake and for ours.

rottenborough · August 15

Federal takeover: The District of Columbia filed an emergency motion on Friday challenging the Trump administration’s attempt to take over the city’s police department, and a judge is set to hear the matter at 2 p.m. The lawsuit comes after the Trump administration moved to expand its control of the city’s police department by installing an “emergency commissioner” and revoking policies that limited officers’ cooperation with immigration enforcement.

NY Times blog

MattW · August 15

AnneJGP said:

MattW said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Would you report shoplifting for a quid?

The retailer's executive chairman, Richard Walker, said that shoppers who alert staff to a theft in progress will receive a £1 credit on their Iceland Bonus Card.
If I see a shoplifter, I report them to the nearest member of staff where I judge it safe so to do.

What's the issue with making such a report?

Sometimes finding a member of staff can be a problem.
I don't recall ever having noticed anyone shoplifting. I don't know what I'd do if I did. But I'm fairly sure that a reward for reporting would feel like an insult.

I've seen perhaps 2 in the last 18 months, both wandering into and out of my local small "top up" supermarkets near their 10pm closing time. I have a number of those within about 15 minutes walk - 7 or 8.

I sometimes drop in eg for milk if I'm doing a late walk.

One lady assistant walked up to the youth abruptly as if he was a toddler grabbing a pack of jammy dodgers, and took it all back just as if he was being a stupid child.

MattW · August 15

Big_G_NorthWales said:

stodge said:

wooliedyed said:
Evening all.
Reference the court case earlier, the jury have at least blessed the country with a new wave of loathing for Labour and Starmer.
And they don't even have '14 years' to worm their way out of it.
Don't get that at all - it was a jury verdict.

People may be upset about that but I don't see why they should blame the Government. They might blame the prosecution lawyer for not building a strong enough case.
Good evening

No matter the rights and wrongs of this case it just adds to the 2 tier narrative and plays into Farage's hands whether we like it or not

There's no value in responding to that though - Farage will just change horses and swap to a different lie. Assuming they are not bots, he has a lot of followers who are more wedded to him than they are to finding out what is real. Farage's perfect voter is one who has been groomed into the silo.

Taz · August 15

wooliedyed said:

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:
Evening all.
Reference the court case earlier, the jury have at least blessed the country with a new wave of loathing for Labour and Starmer.
And they don't even have '14 years' to worm their way out of it.
Maybe the jury were secret Nigel fans. (Joke).
Labour should really go for it and push Ricky J as next Metro Mayor

Parachute him into a safe seat, assuming they still have any !

Bootle

wooliedyed · August 15

Taz said:

wooliedyed said:

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:
Evening all.
Reference the court case earlier, the jury have at least blessed the country with a new wave of loathing for Labour and Starmer.
And they don't even have '14 years' to worm their way out of it.
Maybe the jury were secret Nigel fans. (Joke).
Labour should really go for it and push Ricky J as next Metro Mayor
Parachute him into a safe seat, assuming they still have any !

Bootle

Would make for a nice level headed campaign with no hyperbole whatsoever

CatMan · August 15

AnneJGP said:

MattW said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Would you report shoplifting for a quid?

The retailer's executive chairman, Richard Walker, said that shoppers who alert staff to a theft in progress will receive a £1 credit on their Iceland Bonus Card.
If I see a shoplifter, I report them to the nearest member of staff where I judge it safe so to do.

What's the issue with making such a report?

Sometimes finding a member of staff can be a problem.
I don't recall ever having noticed anyone shoplifting. I don't know what I'd do if I did. But I'm fairly sure that a reward for reporting would feel like an insult.

I've only ever seen shoplifting once, at what was then my local Coop.

Someone loaded up a rucksack with whisky bottles (with security tags) then walked out, setting off the alarms. His face was covered, but it was at the tail end of Covid so there were a few people at the time still wearing masks, so he didn't look out of place.

It was also around 10pm so the one shop worker who was there that heard the alarm couldn't really do anything as he was long gone by the time she realised what had happened.

rottenborough · August 15

Parts of the right commentariat are utterly losing their minds at the moment:

Allison Pearson
@AllisonPearson

Trump can make life v uncomfortable for Starmer.
I’d like to see the US impose a Lucy Connolly tariff.

Stuartinromford · August 15

Big_G_NorthWales said:

stodge said:

wooliedyed said:
Evening all.
Reference the court case earlier, the jury have at least blessed the country with a new wave of loathing for Labour and Starmer.
And they don't even have '14 years' to worm their way out of it.
Don't get that at all - it was a jury verdict.

People may be upset about that but I don't see why they should blame the Government. They might blame the prosecution lawyer for not building a strong enough case.
Good evening

No matter the rights and wrongs of this case it just adds to the 2 tier narrative and plays into Farage's hands whether we like it or not

Though that was a jury doing what they presumably though was right, without fear or favour. Whereas this (from the Conservatives) just looks stark, raving, tonto from a "playing into Farage's hands" point of view.

REVEALED: The huge list of freebies and perks channel migrants are entitled to once they land in Britain.

Meanwhile, Rachel Reeves is taxing you for every last penny.

The Conservatives are the only Party with a plan to stop this madness.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1FpXLGqwNu/

44% of the public are liars, in fact 59% of them are liars once you add Don't Knows

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