The revolting Welsh. Will they reject Labour? – politicalbetting.com
The revolting Welsh. Will they reject Labour? – politicalbetting.com
The polling currently indicates Reform are on course to win most seats but I think the value might be on Labour at 5/1 if there’s any swingback to the governing party, it might also be a good petri dish to see if there’s any tactical voting against Reform, although Plaid Cymru might also benefit from that too.
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In fact, maybe someone should explain Americans more broadly since I don't get their general need for whooping and jeering at everything:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cedv5dy9v8lo
Heat and gin and wallpaper fears no doubt.
Did he flounce in the end? I can't be bothered wading through the whole thread.
I'm sure I have heard her stuff but it doesn't resonate with me. I'm not a fan. But the joy of music is that it's entirely subjective - what rocks for one sucks for another, and she seems to be a huge success story.
She is a consumate professional, with strong work ethic and knows her business inside out. Getting and staying at the top of such a competitive field is quite some achievement. Just not my cup of tea.
Does tactical voting really work in an electoral system like this though?
She realised that the parents would be taking the children to gigs - so made sure that her work appealed to them, to an extent. Same thing as children’s films needing something for the adults who will sit through them as well.
This is a vast, and growing market, around the world. Add in some genuine talent and a carefully crafted pubic image - billions of dollars flow.
Very little has been built here because we have had 10-15 years of short-termist slash and burn Government, and if funding is not for example finalised until have way through the spending period - then of course it is chaos, chaos imposed from the centre.
Exceptions are where we have longer term political structures with real funding over a period, or Govt involvement. We had that from under Thatcher, Major, Blair, in measure.
And we have a whole series of metro and tram systems in major cities, and London. Just not in the South. Where's the Portsmouth or Southampton Metro, for example? They could have done that whilst Nottingham, Sheffield and Manchester were building their light. Why did they not?
But if local and regional government is slashed by a third or so across the board, wtf do you expect to happen?
That's why imo the current version of the Conservative Party needs to die, or to recreate itself as something that's fit to be in our society.
The planning system is not working? Well for years the rhetoric was that such is bad, and it was left to wither on the vine, so of course it is broken. No shit, Sherlock. And they have just had another 15 years and wrecked it all.
Is there a single area of national life that was not flat on its back in July 2024?
So I think the anti-Labour tide will wash a lot of them away.
The election will crystallise (as the header says) the Reform polling, anti-Reform tactical voting, the Reform “ground game” etc. Lots of data to calibrate future bets.
Would be interesting to understand how much Reform is locally organising in Wales - or is it still a centrally run party?
Could the tide sweep Kemi away, as well?
Got it.
As far as I can see this is fair enough, the land has a cost and it is obviously extra Labour but others are saying that is an unfair fat tax.
Every single thing has worked. Stockton Globe is a huge success as is the Hampton by Hilton. Stockton hosts its annual Riverside festival which pulls in performers from around the globe. The shuttered shops have been flattened and a riverside park is going in.
The key word is *investment*. Tories don't understand that the part the broke the most in the UK is that they turned investment into a dirty word. Persuaded people that the state can't invest, can't own, is incompetent. As other states sold us electricity and ran transport and delivered parcels here in the UK. Persuaded business that investment would be a waste of time - why spend money on a foreign-owned UK asset when speculation will see it rise in value anyway? Go look at who owns so many shuttered high street properties. And crippled the public sector and national and local level so that we can't afford teachers and can't afford your operation and can't afford to fill in pot holes or get rid of the weeds growing through the cracks in the pavement.
The Tories literally broke this country. Whilst slamming us with record peacetime taxes to boot. Its no wonder that people are laughing at their attempts this week to claim that their mess is actually Labour's mess actually. Then again Labour have fallen into the same "can't afford it" trap and are continuing the misery.
Then again, I love running and (currently...) triathlon. I was a long-distance walker. I used to find F1 riveting. I love heavy engineering of all sorts, and especially railways and tunnelling. I love reading. All of which others might find hard to understand or, dare I say it, weird.
We are not all the same, and most of us have different interests and things that appeal. Mrs J's a Prog Rock chick. I'm an electropop devotee. It'd be boring if we both liked exactly the same things. Vive la difference!
Do I see some slightly less disastrous economic news this morning? Welcome if so. I can only see what I see but I've noted racecourse attendances have been improving in the summer so there' still some discretionary income out there. Haydock's three day Rose of Lancaster meeting last weekend had its best figures since the pandemic.
As for Wales, with a new electoral system in place, it's very hard to call especially as the last seat projection I saw for the new Senedd had Plaid, Reform and Labour almost level between 27 and 29 seats each leaving the Conservatives, LDs and Greens to the scraps from the table.
Either way, it seems improbable any of the three main parties can find a majority themselves and any majority permutation seems to involve two of them so Plaid-Labour (in some form) looks favourite given, I imagine, no one will want to deal with Reform. I can foresee the latter winning most seats, trying to form a Government, failing and then spending the next four years or so whingeing about it.
The strange thing is, the more you try to break the system, the more the system fights to regain its cohesion. Thats why, contrary to many on here, I could foresee the Conservatives supporting a minority Labour Government rather than a minority Reform administration. Going in with Reform would likely ensure a similar result for the Conservatives in 2034 as the LDs "enjoyed" in 2015.
If we are looking for OK for parents whilst attractive to kids (I'm not assigning age groups - I get that wrong) - Spice Girls? Destiny's Child? Kylie? Abba?
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5443707-president-trump-nobel-peace/
A Conservative wishing to stay as a party distinct from Reform is unlikely to sign their party's death warrant in that manner.
Those more interested in their careers will probably jump ship anyway.
And a lot more people have to have extra wide these days.
Don't we have a similar thing on airlines with "you'll need an extra seat for the other half of your person, sir"?
And aren't the rest rather more manufactured than is Swift ?
The problem is that they have decided that there are two evils - foreigners and windfarms. Its hard to find mainstream politicians wanting to work with people allied to "send the brown people home before they rape my daughter" brigade. Which is a pity.
If Reform could detach the racist far right and see them off into a Yaxley-Lennon party they would do much better.
TLDR IMO: Scope is reduced, it is unapologetically politicised, and it treats the USA as the standard.
https://www.state.gov/reports/2024-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/
UK. France, Germany etc are similar:
"EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The human rights situation worsened in the United Kingdom during the year.
Significant human rights issues included credible reports of serious restrictions on freedom of expression, including enforcement of or threat of criminal or civil laws in order to limit expression; and crimes, violence, or threats of violence motivated by antisemitism.
The government sometimes took credible steps to identify and punish officials who committed human rights abuses, but prosecution and punishment for such abuses was inconsistent."
https://www.state.gov/reports/2024-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/united-kingdom/
This "officials who committed human rights abuses" is a strange phrase. And the report on Ukraine is peculiar.
He broke Britain and now he's blaming everyone else.
Instead, they have decided the causes: as you say, things like foreigners and windfarms, and are constructing a narrative that the 'broken' is caused by those two things. In other words, as is sadly common in politics, their narrative is based around ideology, not reality.
When in reality, much that is 'broken' might be down to people like them. Or even, in the case of people like Farage, them directly.
The new Guilty Men.
Genius does not preclude image manufacture, surely? I'm sure that someone can come up with an example from the music hall era.
https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/1955645068263686531?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aug/13/ice-alert-app-trump
I cannot name a single Taylor Swift song, despite having heard a few over the years. None has caught me in the same way (say) "Stand by your man" or "Jolene" have. Perhaps that's just me and my ignorant musical tastes...
But they keep popping up, like mushrooms.
I think the party structure was as a result of previous political ventures being overwhelmed by the lunatic and criminal.
Nigel didn't like Portuguese and Polish nurses so he removed freedom of movement. And now, after Boris had to import lots of Nurses from the Indian subcontinent, Nigel says he doesn't like them either.
I wish he'd make his mind up.
It accelerated the decline, but the decline was already there. Whole communities / towns / regions. Where the security of good jobs which pay the bills had gone. Where public services were crumbling. Where the social fabric binding them together was fraying. Farage blamed the decline on Europe. The decline was already there.
We do have some common ground in that we both like Seventies cheese (Carpenters, Abba, Bobby Gentry etc) and Country Music from the Sixties and Seventies.
How about we instead start with those people who have been in government and made the decisions.
We can also add more generally, to individually varying extents, the British people.
The Tories heavily damaged the economy and services and society. And are now whining that Labour is doing the things they did, or hasn't done the things they didn't do. And people are laughing at them. They can't admit they - Badenoch and Truss in particular - did anything wrong. Labour are the same - no mistakes here, no lack of vision, no lack of a clue what to do. Just blame the Tories for all the things we are now doing.
Like an alcoholic needing to admit they are one, British politicians need to accept that things are broken, look at the macro not the micro and start proposing ways to change. For all that Farage gets attacked for attacking the NHS, he's right. The NHSes are bonfires - the more money we thrown on top the more ash lands at the bottom to create crises in delivery. We need to change the system not burn more money. Same with UC. Same with housing. Same with energy. Same with planning.
We can't go on as we are and we can't just fiddle around with micro edge policies. Lunch clubs are important Labour, but the bigger problem is a lack of teachers and assistants and that the existing ones are exhausted and quitting.
I suspect Farage would have been at one with lazy trade unionist British workers ( the enemy within) being replaced in the free market by importing cheap labour produced product from China and the Indian subcontinent. It kept consumption up and inflation down after all.
I was actually thinking about Tammy Wynette as I wrote that, because of the KLF's contribution to rehabilitating her career, and the difference between Wynette and Parton's careers. Parton managed to remain relevant; Wynette sadly did not.
(I really rate Parton for her Imagination Library scheme to give books to kids.)
And as for the word 'investment'. IIRC it was a Labour chancellor who turned government spending into 'investment'.
Its not just the Tories fault.
Brexit was irrelevant as Europe is suffering from a shortage of health workers:
“All countries of the region face severe problems related to their health and care workforce,” the World Health Organization’s Europe region said in a report earlier this year, warning of potentially dire consequences without urgent government action.
In France, there are fewer doctors now than in 2012. More than 6 million people, including 600,000 with chronic illnesses, do not have a regular GP and 30% of the population does not have adequate access to health services.
In Germany, 35,000 care sector posts were vacant last year, 40% more than a decade ago, while a report this summer said that by 2035 more than a third of all health jobs could be unfilled. Facing unprecedented hospital overcrowding due to “a severe shortage of nurses”, even Finland will need 200,000 new workers in the health and social care sector by 2030.
In Spain, the health ministry announced in May that more than 700,000 people were waiting for surgery, and 5,000 frontline GPs and paediatricians in Madrid have been on strike for nearly a month in protest at years of underfunding and overwork.
Efforts to replace retiring workers were already “suboptimal”, the WHO Europe report said, but had to now be urgently extended to “improve retention and tackle an expected increase in younger people leaving the workforce due to burnout, ill health and general dissatisfaction”.
In a third of countries in the region, at least 40% of doctors were aged 55 or over, the report said. Even when younger practitioners stayed despite stress, long hours and often low pay, their reluctance to work in remote rural areas or deprived inner cities had created “medical deserts” that were proving almost impossible to fill.
“All of these threats represent a ticking time bomb … likely to lead to poor health outcomes, long waiting times, many preventable deaths and potentially even health system collapse,” warned Hans Kluge, the WHO regional director for Europe.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/dec/14/a-ticking-time-bomb-healthcare-under-threat-across-western-europe
Good morning, everyone.
5 /1 on Welsh Labour is not a bad bet as things stand - they had two really bad polls in Wales (one with YG, one with FoN ) but other than that close enough to make 5/1 reasonable and they have a track record of recovering from apocalyptic polling in Wales. Against that is beimg in power since the Anarchy and the national plunge. Caerphilly once it happens will give us some idea - finishing third might mean they are heading for a drubbing. They got brutalised in the local election in Llanelli last week and even in the recent hold vote share crashed. Your Party will add further intrigue but we need to see polling on where they are taking votes and from whom
My guesstimate for Senedd 26 for seats as we stand is
Ref 25 to 35
PC 25 to 30
Lab 18 to 22
Con 10 to 13
LD 1 to 4
Green 0 to 2
Your Party 0 to 2
As they and she age, the content has matured, as evidenced by this
https://www.reddit.com/r/TaylorSwift/comments/yand5r/updated_swear_words_chart_in_taylor_swifts_lyrics/#lightbox
All successful acts are marketed.
Can anyone spot the cycle lane? (Aside: you can't ride on painted lines because they have little grip and are dangerous, sometimes with mini changes of level at the edges). Down my way we have no painted cycle lanes; in the 1990s and 2000s they just shared lots of pavements, including where they are only about 1.1m wide. It's cycle infra designed by a traffic engineer who has not been trained or given a target and no money.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/xxbJxNJJk-Q
Farage has driven the narrative since the mid/late 1990s. The fear from within the Conservative Party has been palpable. They drove down the Brexit dead end to prevent him from becoming as incendiary to the future of Conservative electoral fortunes as it looks like he might have become. Tories can take some consolation that he is sweeping Labour away too.
Reform don't have any plans to make things work beyond sending people home. They are a stain on the nation. Most of us are better than that. For sure I have issues with our current immigration policies, and I think the world needs to rethink what asylum means in the 21st century, but Reform are not the answer.
Of course, an economy which is receiving a boost of £150bn additional spending from the government above what they are taking in taxes should be doing better but at least it is not doing worse.
At least Labour tried to accept they had got things wrong - and Ed Milliband was vilified for doing so. Badenoch? Screeching about prison releases. Erm, Alex Chalk ring any bells Kemi? The "Pray Date"?
Was Farage responsible for triple lock pensions ?
Was Farage responsible for unaffordable housing ?
Was Farage responsible for the banks crashing ?
Was Farage responsible for nimbyism ?
Was Farage responsible for every infrastructure spending fiasco ?
Was Farage responsible for defence cuts ?
Was Farage responsible for social care not being reformed ?
Was Farage responsible for lack of productivity growth ?
Was Farage responsible for on line shopping destroying high streets ?
Was Farage responsible for high energy costs ?
Was Farage responsible for people wanting more welfarism for themselves ?
Was Farage responsible for ageing demographics ?
Was Farage responsible for the effects of AI on young graduates ?
I don't want Farage anywhere near government as he would likely be disastrous but I'm not going to blame him for things which are varyingly caused by those who have been in government, the general behaviour of the British people, world events and underlying structural factors.
In my view Reform (assuming they win in 2029 - a 30% chance) - will govern as high spend big state social democrats + closed border nationalists + socially conservative emphasis but in words only. High spend of course = high tax. The bond markets will see to that.
The result will fairly closely resemble Labour policy in the late 1950s.
Reasoning: ask the voters of Clacton what they want for themselves of government. The rest follows as night follows day.
I'm an advocate for levelling up the country but frankly, a large proportion of people like to wallow in their misery. No wonder the government had largely given up on it. The same happened in Paisley - "these cycle lanes will destroy the local economy!" What economy?!
First Lady Melania Trump has threatened to sue Hunter Biden for more than $1bn after he claimed she was introduced to her husband by sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
Lawyers acting on behalf of the first lady, who married US President Donald Trump in 2005, described the claim as "false, disparaging, defamatory and inflammatory".
Biden, son of former US President Joe Biden, made the comments during an interview earlier this month, in which he strongly criticised the president's former ties to Epstein.
Donald Trump was a friend of Epstein, but has said the pair fell out in the early 2000s because the financier had poached employees who worked at the spa in Trump's Florida golf club.
A letter from the first lady's lawyers and addressed to an attorney for Hunter Biden demands he retract the claim and apologise, or face legal action for "over $1bn in damages".
It says the first lady has suffered "overwhelming financial and reputational harm" because of the claim he repeated.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqjyw0l9d82o
I'm curious as to how she thinks she can get a billion out of Boy Biden.
The image is an extraordinary demonstration of the staggering changes that have occurred between 1981 and today in the quality of photographs.
All countries have better care in the big cities, as a certain critical mass is needed to have the full range of facilities, but one underappreciated benefit of the NHS is in ensuring at least some level of service even in more remote areas.
https://www.ft.com/content/918e0ce3-0dc7-470b-968d-94d6982dabdd
Most UK agricultural estates can shoulder the cost of higher death duties without being forced to sell the family farm, according to analysis of Labour reforms that campaigners fear will hammer rural communities.
Eight in 10 farm estates affected by changes to the inheritance tax regime set out in the autumn Budget would be able to pay their entire IHT bill out of non-farm assets, according to a study by the Centre for the Analysis of Taxation, which produces independent academic research on tax policy.
[...] the NFU welcomed the findings of the report, saying it presented an opportunity for the government to rework the reforms.
“There are interesting adjustments within the report, that appear to mitigate the impacts on the most vulnerable in our community and enable farms to invest in the future of food production with greater confidence,” said NFU president Tom Bradshaw.
The report is at https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/
tl;dr - you need 12-15% in any constituency to be likely to get a seat, 24-30% odd to be confident of getting a second seat - and (depending on the split of votes to parties below 15% that are thus wasted) something like 40% to get a third. I think that the chance of Labour getting most seats is better than 5/1 - but it'll likely be one of those 'value losers' that we all enjoy so much.
I assume that they are in the new developments around Battersea power station.
https://www.ft.com/content/14420f4a-06e0-40f6-b5b1-c4e0a36565f0
HM Revenue & Customs payroll data has found no evidence to suggest more non-doms left Britain in response to Rachel Reeves’ 2024 Budget than official predictions, according to people briefed on the findings.
[...]
Reeves was told by the Office for Budget Responsibility to expect 25 per cent of non-doms with trusts to quit the country in response to the crackdown on their tax status, which began under the Conservatives and intensified when Reeves became chancellor last year.
HMRC data now suggests this prediction is broadly correct, the people said, removing pressure on Reeves to reverse a Labour policy that is forecast to raise more than £4bn in 2026-27 and almost £6bn the following year.
A very pleasant upside surprise in the S household today, after an early morning drive to school.
Or perhaps Europe's problems are more fundamental and have sod all to do with Brexit and even less to do with Farage.
The US budget deficit for the month of July was an eye-watering $291 billion, putting our own monthly deficit into perspective, even allowing for the relative size of populations.
People have to decide where to move to - culturally similar like crown dependencies or zero tax in ME? They have to find homes to move to, schools for children, unwind businesses, start setting up new businesses and investments if the new home demands that as part of the deal, they have to decide whether to sell UK property holdings or rent them out hoping for a future gov that’s more friendly or a better market for high end property.
Also, losing 25% of a tax base who also likely bring in business, are likely to invest in business in the UK and spend highly in the UK is not good.
I would suggest holding off popping the champagne corks for a while.
All countries have their far right. Indeed I was surprised and amused in Senegal last year to hear they’ve elected a far right MP (that’s how my interlocutors described him) to their parliament, who stands on a platform of opposing immigration from Guinea Conakry on the basis they sponge off the state and cause crime.
It’s all down to that elephant chart of globalisation. The ultra rich have got richer everywhere, the poor and middle classes in developing countries have got much richer with the exception of the very poorest, and the working and lower middle classes in rich countries have relatively poorer. Meanwhile their populations have aged so fewer and fewer working age people find more and more pension entitlements and healthcare.
British exceptionalism means we like to claim either Britain is uniquely broken or the greatest country on earth (or occasionally both) when the truth is we’re all largely in it together.
And in other news my top 10 UK university is essentially closed for clearing to home students, and wide open for overseas. Money talks.
The population at large have accepted it happened as it had to. Hilariously, I find it only gets brought up at dinner parties after the 4th bottle comes out, now. Often to tutting and disapproving looks from those who moved on years ago.
Amongst her contemporaries, Cyrus has a much better voice.
The Truth About Those Age Verification Pop-Ups
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCIo1IyykLQ
One thing I didn't know, when you provide your ID, a number of big websites have outsourced this to Persona, a US based company who doesn't have to follow GDPR with your data....smashing.
That could also be an omen for the next GE, while most polls give Reform most seats they are certainly well short of the 35-40%+ Farage would need to be on to make a clear majority likely, especially if LD and Green voters tactically vote Labour in the end in Labour held marginal seats to keep Reform out. It is perfectly possible therefore that at the next GE Reform win a majority in England, or Reform and the Tories combined at least win a majority in England but Labour stay in government as UK wide Labour and the SNP and Plaid combined win more seats in Scotland and Wales than Reform and the Tories combined do and with the LD seats won in England that gives Starmer enough MPs in a hung parliament to back him as PM over Farage