What are these ratings going to look like at the next general election? – politicalbetting.com

Comments

• Nigelb Posts: 80,168

  August 13

  Good morning.

  0
• Fishing Posts: 5,790

  August 13

  "The only positive I can see for Labour is they are seen as moderate but that’s scraping the barrel. "
  
  I'm pretty sure that being moderate isn't the positive it used to be in a much more polarised country with a stagnant economy.

  1
• Casino_Royale Posts: 64,078

  August 13

  That might be enough for Labour when a GE comes into frame, though.
  
  4 years is a very long time.

  1
• Nigelb Posts: 80,168

  August 13

  Interesting set of numbers.
  Individually, I'm not sure they mean all that much (does anyone actually give much real consideration to "key metrics" ?); it's simply that around two thirds of the country really don't like this government.
  
  Without significant economic progress, that is not going to change. Stagnation plus higher taxes certainly won't do it.

  3
• Foxy Posts: 52,592

  August 13

  I am surprised that 16% think Labour have a clear sense of purpose.
  
  

  2
• Taz Posts: 20,272

  August 13

  Nigelb said:

  Interesting set of numbers.
  Individually, I'm not sure they mean all that much (does anyone actually give much real consideration to "key metrics" ?); it's simply that around two thirds of the country really don't like this government.
  
  Without significant economic progress, that is not going to change. Stagnation plus higher taxes certainly won't do it.

  Given the current govt is looking to tax their way out of the mess we are in we’re doomed to it.
  
  I actually think this govt has improved this year, but from a very low base, but we are in 1975 not 1998 and the worst is yet to come.
  
  Where Reform could really offer an alternative is with fiscal discipline. However they won’t as many of their supporters are social conservative but fiscally liberal.

  0
• TheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,251

  August 13

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  1
• Foxy Posts: 52,592

  August 13

  Always cling on to nurse for fear of finding something worse.
  
  It is a curiosity of current British politics that both of our former major parties have leaders that MPs, members and voters have no faith in and want replaced. Both expect a pasting in next years elections and expect their leaders to be replaced before the GE.
  
  We live amongst zombies.

  0
• Stuartinromford Posts: 19,404

  August 13

  Taz said:

  Nigelb said:

  Interesting set of numbers.
  Individually, I'm not sure they mean all that much (does anyone actually give much real consideration to "key metrics" ?); it's simply that around two thirds of the country really don't like this government.
  
  Without significant economic progress, that is not going to change. Stagnation plus higher taxes certainly won't do it.

  Given the current govt is looking to tax their way out of the mess we are in we’re doomed to it.
  
  I actually think this govt has improved this year, but from a very low base, but we are in 1975 not 1998 and the worst is yet to come.
  
  Where Reform could really offer an alternative is with fiscal discipline. However they won’t as many of their supporters are social conservative but fiscally liberal.

  The more relevant question is whether it's a version of 1980. And it's still much too early to tell that.
  
  Reform, on the other hand, can't offer real fiscal discipline- not with the coalition they are building. Their whole take is that there are lots of easy wins that the Uniparty are refusing to do because of stubbornness and malice. It's an attractive story. But, as Musk found out and various county councillors are finding out, it's mostly rubbish.
  
  Besides, social conservatism is expensive, if you insist on enforcing it.

  2
• MarqueeMark Posts: 55,612

  August 13

  A 2024 massive majority on a "favourable" view that was an inch deep and a mile wide.
  
  Now about a quarter of an inch deep and six feet wide.
  
  "We're not the Tories" isn't going to do you any good when the response is "No, you're even more useless..."
  
  Starmer needs a Cabinet reshuffle. That includes a new Chancellor - before the Budget.

  2
• nico67 Posts: 5,760

  August 13

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  I don’t see how a 20% VAT increase can lead to an almost doubling of fees . As for Weatherbys Private Bank ! If the Times is looking to elicit some sympathy for the poor struggles of getting Tarquin /Lottie into private school then best not use this elitist bank !

  1
• TheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,251

  August 13

  Only really low IQ people think AI is awesome
  
  Man poisoned himself after taking medical advice from ChatGPT
  
  Patient replaced table salt with sodium bromide after consulting AI software, say doctors
  
  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/12/man-poisoned-himself-after-taking-medical-advice-from-chatg/

  1
• JosiasJessop Posts: 46,522

  August 13

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  A friend of mine has lost her job because of the tax; the school she works at has reduced the amount of courses offered to students, and the number of staff they employ.
  
  And yes, the tax was directly a cause.
  
  A real person, and a real job lost.

  3
• Stuartinromford Posts: 19,404

  August 13

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  Good heavens, I hate those "bad things X after disliked thing Y" headlines. Implies a causal relationship, often when there isn't one. (See the third paragraph, and then remember that private schools have been increasing their fees faster than inflation for ages.)

  2
• Casino_Royale Posts: 64,078

  August 13

  nico67 said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  I don’t see how a 20% VAT increase can lead to an almost doubling of fees . As for Weatherbys Private Bank ! If the Times is looking to elicit some sympathy for the poor struggles of getting Tarquin /Lottie into private school then best not use this elitist bank !

  Tarquin and Lottie can no longer afford it.
  
  It's now Xi, Brooklyn and Cy - i.e. the international elite and sons and daughters of rich footballers and celebrities.

  2
• rottenborough Posts: 67,275

  August 13

  Morning all,
  
  Those Lab numbers are dire.
  
  Basically a One Term Latest set.

  0
• Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,769

  August 13

  Off Topic
  
  I notice that the Times headline talks about migrants arriving in very fast boats. No wonder so many of them get through...
  

  0
• numbertwelve Posts: 7,767

  August 13

  I cannot see a way out for Labour unless they are able to break the fiscal headroom/tax rise doom loop that Reeves has shackled them to.
  
  Unless economic parameters markedly improve, or Labour face up to some very difficult choices on spending, this narrative is just going to continue. Another summer, another wave of fevered speculation what taxes will rise next (IHT gifting seemed to be the poison of choice yesterday). It is inescapable for Labour, and it lends to the air of a government in panic and a miserable populace having more misery to endure.
  
  No government can be run like this and expect to be getting any benefit.

  1
• TheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,251

  August 13

  nico67 said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  I don’t see how a 20% VAT increase can lead to an almost doubling of fees . As for Weatherbys Private Bank ! If the Times is looking to elicit some sympathy for the poor struggles of getting Tarquin /Lottie into private school then best not use this elitist bank !

  Elitist? Nah, they are a bank for jockeys.
  
  C. Hoare & Co, Barclays Private Banking, Arbuthnot Latham, that's elite.
  
  (I am enjoined from having C. Hoare & Co as my bankers because I would tell the world 'My bankers are Hoares'.

  2
• JosiasJessop Posts: 46,522

  August 13

  MarqueeMark said:

  A 2024 massive majority on a "favourable" view that was an inch deep and a mile wide.
  
  Now about a quarter of an inch deep and six feet wide.
  
  "We're not the Tories" isn't going to do you any good when the response is "No, you're even more useless..."
  
  Starmer needs a Cabinet reshuffle. That includes a new Chancellor - before the Budget.

  Perhaps.
  
  But he also needs a vision, and people who can sell that vision to the public. Because he can not.
  
  I cannot tell you what Kemi's Conservative Party stands for: they seem to have no vision. But the same is true for the government, who seem not only to lack vision, but also be just reacting to events.
  
  But the odd thing is that the Farage Party does not have much of a vision either: they just seem to think the country's shit (despite their own acts in making it so), and that the shittiness is down to immigrants and people trying to be be nice to other people.

  2
• RochdalePioneers Posts: 30,708

  August 13

  Politics is a maelstrom. Labour are under the cosh in the middle of the 2nd Annual Summer Madness. Once the racist thugs stop hogging the limelight things will calm down.
  
  You think its bad for Labour? The Tories have decided to out-Farage Reform this week, with endless performative posts on social media. Apparently they will send all migrants home. Excluding Kemi.

  1
• rottenborough Posts: 67,275

  August 13

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  Only really low IQ people think AI is awesome
  
  Man poisoned himself after taking medical advice from ChatGPT
  
  Patient replaced table salt with sodium bromide after consulting AI software, say doctors
  
  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/12/man-poisoned-himself-after-taking-medical-advice-from-chatg/

  How long before someone sues AI for massive sum?

  0
• TheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,251

  August 13

  Stuartinromford said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  Good heavens, I hate those "bad things X after disliked thing Y" headlines. Implies a causal relationship, often when there isn't one. (See the third paragraph, and then remember that private schools have been increasing their fees faster than inflation for ages.)

  Tell me about, my boys, they've lost three friends over the last year as their parents can no longer afford the fees, only one was directly attributable to the VAT introduction.

  0
• Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,671

  August 13

  It’s better to be feared than loved.
  Though to be neither is the worst.
  
  As I’ve probably observed before, principles in politics are traditionally seen as weakness or a burden. However in fact they are something that can provide the foundation of trying to enact unpopular or painful policies. If voters believe that politicians’ principles are sincerely held they tend to respect the holders even if they don’t agree with them. Unfortunately for SKS and Labour the general (probably correct) perception that they have no strong or consistent attachment to a principle is becoming entrenched.
  
  Of course you also have the weird scenario where true believers have faith in the good intentions of the most obviously principle-free reprobates going. No names, no pack drill.

  1
• Casino_Royale Posts: 64,078

  August 13

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  Stuartinromford said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  Good heavens, I hate those "bad things X after disliked thing Y" headlines. Implies a causal relationship, often when there isn't one. (See the third paragraph, and then remember that private schools have been increasing their fees faster than inflation for ages.)

  Tell me about, my boys, they've lost three friends over the last year as their parents can no longer afford the fees, only one was directly attributable to the VAT introduction.

  Similar for my daughter, although she's lost three due to the VAT introduction and we're now changing schools for her.
  
  We expect to be totally priced out in years to come but, for now,trying to stick with it.

  2
• TheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,251

  August 13

  Casino_Royale said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  Stuartinromford said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  Good heavens, I hate those "bad things X after disliked thing Y" headlines. Implies a causal relationship, often when there isn't one. (See the third paragraph, and then remember that private schools have been increasing their fees faster than inflation for ages.)

  Tell me about, my boys, they've lost three friends over the last year as their parents can no longer afford the fees, only one was directly attributable to the VAT introduction.

  Similar for my daughter, although she's lost three due to the VAT introduction and we're now changing schools for her.
  
  We expect to be totally priced out in years to come but, for now,trying to stick with it.

  I think the number might increase when they go back next month.

  0
• RochdalePioneers Posts: 30,708

  August 13

  VAT on schools:
  1) It will cost the state more money than it raises
  2) Most people don't care because they see this as fair
  3) Schools are using VAT to cover all number of things
  
  I can understand the frustration of parents affected - it is unfair. Then again there are so many things which are egregiously unfair and this isn't anywhere near the top of the unfairness chart. Carers losing their entire allowance for going £1 over the earnings cap? More unfair. And there's stacks of examples of things done by merciless ministers to make the lives of the poor and sick practically unliveable which are more unfair.
  
  This explains point 2 above.

  0
• Nigelb Posts: 80,168

  August 13

  .

  nico67 said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  I don’t see how a 20% VAT increase can lead to an almost doubling of fees . As for Weatherbys Private Bank ! If the Times is looking to elicit some sympathy for the poor struggles of getting Tarquin /Lottie into private school then best not use this elitist bank !

  Because it's comparing what a child leaving this year will have to have paid in fees compared with on leaving a number if years into the future.
  And the figures aren't inflation adjusted.

  1
• Battlebus Posts: 1,353

  August 13

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  Buy a house (or two) near a good state school as prices will just go up.

  1
• Malmesbury Posts: 56,362

  August 13

  RochdalePioneers said:

  VAT on schools:
  1) It will cost the state more money than it raises
  2) Most people don't care because they see this as fair
  3) Schools are using VAT to cover all number of things
  
  I can understand the frustration of parents affected - it is unfair. Then again there are so many things which are egregiously unfair and this isn't anywhere near the top of the unfairness chart. Carers losing their entire allowance for going £1 over the earnings cap? More unfair. And there's stacks of examples of things done by merciless ministers to make the lives of the poor and sick practically unliveable which are more unfair.
  
  This explains point 2 above.

  Process State meets populist policy.

  1
• nico67 Posts: 5,760

  August 13

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  1
• Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,820

  August 13

  Good morning, everyone.

  Theuniondivvie said:

  It’s better to be feared than loved.
  Though to be neither is the worst.
  
  As I’ve probably observed before, principles in politics are traditionally seen as weakness or a burden. However in fact they are something that can provide the foundation of trying to enact unpopular or painful policies. If voters believe that politicians’ principles are sincerely held they tend to respect the holders even if they don’t agree with them. Unfortunately for SKS and Labour the general (probably correct) perception that they have no strong or consistent attachment to a principle is becoming entrenched.
  
  Of course you also have the weird scenario where true believers have faith in the good intentions of the most obviously principle-free reprobates going. No names, no pack drill.

  Don't forget the rest of Machiavelli's line. The most important thing is to avoid being hated.

  1
• RochdalePioneers Posts: 30,708

  August 13

  Malmesbury said:

  RochdalePioneers said:

  VAT on schools:
  1) It will cost the state more money than it raises
  2) Most people don't care because they see this as fair
  3) Schools are using VAT to cover all number of things
  
  I can understand the frustration of parents affected - it is unfair. Then again there are so many things which are egregiously unfair and this isn't anywhere near the top of the unfairness chart. Carers losing their entire allowance for going £1 over the earnings cap? More unfair. And there's stacks of examples of things done by merciless ministers to make the lives of the poor and sick practically unliveable which are more unfair.
  
  This explains point 2 above.

  Process State meets populist policy.

  Sure! But for many of the people in point 2, they here the people complaining and consider that they largely are the people who support all of the egregious merciless stuff which hurts people at an existential level.

  0
• Malmesbury Posts: 56,362

  August 13

  Battlebus said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  Buy a house (or two) near a good state school as prices will just go up.

  A good deal of the house prices in St Andrews was people buying a house for their son/daughter to live in. The rest of the house they rent out to fellow students. This more than pays the mortgage. At the end of 4 years, you sell, and since prices were going up like a rocket, make a further profit.
  
  Happens at other unis, of course.

  1
• Battlebus Posts: 1,353

  August 13

  Morris_Dancer said:

  Good morning, everyone.
  
  

  Theuniondivvie said:

  It’s better to be feared than loved.
  Though to be neither is the worst.
  
  As I’ve probably observed before, principles in politics are traditionally seen as weakness or a burden. However in fact they are something that can provide the foundation of trying to enact unpopular or painful policies. If voters believe that politicians’ principles are sincerely held they tend to respect the holders even if they don’t agree with them. Unfortunately for SKS and Labour the general (probably correct) perception that they have no strong or consistent attachment to a principle is becoming entrenched.
  
  Of course you also have the weird scenario where true believers have faith in the good intentions of the most obviously principle-free reprobates going. No names, no pack drill.

  Don't forget the rest of Machiavelli's line. The most important thing is to avoid being hated.

  Another one from Machiavelli. Wonder who it might apply to.
  
  “The first method for estimating the intelligence of a ruler is to look at the men he has around him.”

  1
• Foxy Posts: 52,592

  August 13

  rottenborough said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  Only really low IQ people think AI is awesome
  
  Man poisoned himself after taking medical advice from ChatGPT
  
  Patient replaced table salt with sodium bromide after consulting AI software, say doctors
  
  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/12/man-poisoned-himself-after-taking-medical-advice-from-chatg/

  How long before someone sues AI for massive sum?

  I think that the case would fail because unlike a health practitioner ChatGpt has no "duty of care".
  
  Stupid people will do stupid things, so for similar reasons someone who loses a kid to measles can't sue anti-vaxxers.

  1
• Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,820

  August 13

  Battlebus said:

  Morris_Dancer said:

  Good morning, everyone.
  
  

  Theuniondivvie said:

  It’s better to be feared than loved.
  Though to be neither is the worst.
  
  As I’ve probably observed before, principles in politics are traditionally seen as weakness or a burden. However in fact they are something that can provide the foundation of trying to enact unpopular or painful policies. If voters believe that politicians’ principles are sincerely held they tend to respect the holders even if they don’t agree with them. Unfortunately for SKS and Labour the general (probably correct) perception that they have no strong or consistent attachment to a principle is becoming entrenched.
  
  Of course you also have the weird scenario where true believers have faith in the good intentions of the most obviously principle-free reprobates going. No names, no pack drill.

  Don't forget the rest of Machiavelli's line. The most important thing is to avoid being hated.

  Another one from Machiavelli. Wonder who it might apply to.
  
  “The first method for estimating the intelligence of a ruler is to look at the men he has around him.”

  I quite like the three orders of intelligence, with the best being understanding by oneself, the good being employing servants who understand things and benefiting from their advice, and the worst being neither.
  
  Badenoch seems like a category 3.

  1
• RochdalePioneers Posts: 30,708

  August 13

  nico67 said:

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  Social media has been fascinating. The Tories have absolutely ramped it up - a list of the heinous things Labour are doing. Here's what the Conservatives propose. And practically every response calls them out - you made this mess, you did nothing, why didn't you do this in office etc etc.
  
  Reform are eating them alive for the simple reason that they have called out everything the Tories failed to do and laughed at them trying it on. Despite the projected rage from a few and simmering unrest from many, the Tories aren't gaining any ground at all. The opposite seems true.
  
  They can do nothing else with Madam Sneer as leader. She is Flawless and Can Do No Wrong. They need someone more honest - Cleverley not Jenrick.

  1
• MattW Posts: 29,119

  August 13

  numbertwelve said:

  I cannot see a way out for Labour unless they are able to break the fiscal headroom/tax rise doom loop that Reeves has shackled them to.
  
  Unless economic parameters markedly improve, or Labour face up to some very difficult choices on spending, this narrative is just going to continue. Another summer, another wave of fevered speculation what taxes will rise next (IHT gifting seemed to be the poison of choice yesterday). It is inescapable for Labour, and it lends to the air of a government in panic and a miserable populace having more misery to endure.
  
  No government can be run like this and expect to be getting any benefit.

  I roughly concur with you.
  
  The Govt have to see perceived life improve (ie "Lived Experience" ) at street level and in eg NHS Service, Housing delivery, "My town feels improved", perceived immigration, and the rest.
  
  As I see it, that is their table stake - and I'm not clear just how many of those are lockouts if they do not deliver, and then they get consideration in the Election Game.
  
  They are correct is blaming nearly everything on the previous headless chicken government, but that card is a Joker with diminishing value, and they have not been ruthless in driving that stake in to the opposition's heart. It will take a full decade to recover, at least, for example in building prisons that were multiply promised followed by a blank hole. But that's where we are.
  
  As I see it, the best they have for the Budget is to do what ought to have been done last autumn.
  
  Consider paying your Private Medical Fees in advance; VAT on those seems logical as a tax rhetorically to hypothecate to NHS Service improvements eg dentistry etc.

  0
• Northern_Al Posts: 8,998

  August 13

  Dire poll ratings for Labour indeed. However, Starmer will console himself that it's 2025, not 2028. Still loads of time for the government to get its act together, and/or the opposing parties to fall apart under the weight of their own contradictions.
  
  It's also worth noting that, despite the apparent loathing of the government, Labour are still consistently second in the opinion poll ratings. It seems almost counter-intuitive that such deep unpopularity hasn't yet seen them overtaken by the Tories or Lid Dems.

  0
• berberian_knows Posts: 126

  August 13

  FPT

  
  But I'm a bit busy with my day job, and my cool new side project (halbut.io).
  
  Also, I need to migrate PB to Cloudflare.
  
  

  I read that as halibut.io and went there - I'm sure others will. It's unclaimed but "premium" so costs a steep £2.2k - you might want to grab it and redirect if you think your project has legs

  1
• Fishing Posts: 5,790

  August 13 edited August 13

  MarqueeMark said:

  A 2024 massive majority on a "favourable" view that was an inch deep and a mile wide.
  
  Now about a quarter of an inch deep and six feet wide.
  
  "We're not the Tories" isn't going to do you any good when the response is "No, you're even more useless..."
  
  Starmer needs a Cabinet reshuffle. That includes a new Chancellor - before the Budget.

  No he needs policies that actively address the country's economic problems, instead of making them worse. That won't be got by swapping Chancellor. (To whom, anyway? Rayner? Lammy? Hahahaha) They need policies that give the private sector a break rather than actively shafting it. It's simple economics, validated by experience. Increasing regulation and the tax burden, especially on corporate taxes, devastate economic growth in the medium and long term. Countries with higher taxes and spending have lower economic growth. Reducing them increases it. See the studies I posted on here a couple of days back.
  
  Of course that means that the whole premise of the Labour Party, and the left wing generally, that they can run a decent economy while screwing over the enterprising and productive to shovel money towards their favourite groups, is wrong, at least unless they get everything else absolutely right. But that's been obvious for decades, somewhat disguised by Blair and Brown sqaundering the last few years of Margaret Thatcher's legacy.

  2
• Taz Posts: 20,272

  August 13

  nico67 said:

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  The same ‘right wing media’ that was so favourable to the Tories 😂

  2
• Nigelb Posts: 80,168

  August 13

  nico67 said:

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  Labour's problem is that, while it's entirely fair to blame the previous government for our present mess, they appear barely to have started thinking about how to address it.
  
  The country's problem is that it's very far from clear that anyone other party has, either.

  5
• AnneJGP Posts: 3,825

  August 13

  Another positive for Labour might be the comparative ratings of all the other parties.
  
  It may be bad, but are they the best of the bunch?

  3
• Foxy Posts: 52,592

  August 13

  MattW said:

  numbertwelve said:

  I cannot see a way out for Labour unless they are able to break the fiscal headroom/tax rise doom loop that Reeves has shackled them to.
  
  Unless economic parameters markedly improve, or Labour face up to some very difficult choices on spending, this narrative is just going to continue. Another summer, another wave of fevered speculation what taxes will rise next (IHT gifting seemed to be the poison of choice yesterday). It is inescapable for Labour, and it lends to the air of a government in panic and a miserable populace having more misery to endure.
  
  No government can be run like this and expect to be getting any benefit.

  I roughly concur with you.
  
  The Govt have to see perceived life improve (ie "Lived Experience" ) at street level and in eg NHS Service, Housing delivery, "My town feels improved", perceived immigration, and the rest.
  
  As I see it, that is their table stake - and I'm not clear just how many of those are lockouts if they do not deliver, and then they get consideration in the Election Game.
  
  They are correct is blaming nearly everything on the previous headless chicken government, but that card is a Joker with diminishing value, and they have not been ruthless in driving that stake in to the opposition's heart. It will take a full decade to recover, at least, for example in building prisons that were multiply promised followed by a blank hole. But that's where we are.
  
  As I see it, the best they have for the Budget is to do what ought to have been done last autumn.
  
  Consider paying your Private Medical Fees in advance; VAT on those seems logical as a tax rhetorically to hypothecate to NHS Service improvements eg dentistry etc.

  Labour's election plan hinges on delivery. That's a risky plan, not just because of the logistics and costs of delivery.
  
  The problem is one of perception. People need to believe that life is better and things are happening to make it better still. Never has there been a better time to be alive, yet so many believe in decline. Labour needs to be in a position to copy SuperMac "you never had it so good". They are nowhere near that and have a terrible communications strategy.

  1
• Nigelb Posts: 80,168

  August 13

  Hasn't worked out how to fiddle them yet.
  
  “E.J. Antoni, the economist tapped by President Donald Trump to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, suggested suspending the agency’s closely watched monthly jobs report, arguing that its underlying methodology, economic modeling and statistical assumptions are fundamentally flawed.”
  https://x.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1955296469642096810
  
  

  0
• Taz Posts: 20,272

  August 13

  RochdalePioneers said:

  Malmesbury said:

  RochdalePioneers said:

  VAT on schools:
  1) It will cost the state more money than it raises
  2) Most people don't care because they see this as fair
  3) Schools are using VAT to cover all number of things
  
  I can understand the frustration of parents affected - it is unfair. Then again there are so many things which are egregiously unfair and this isn't anywhere near the top of the unfairness chart. Carers losing their entire allowance for going £1 over the earnings cap? More unfair. And there's stacks of examples of things done by merciless ministers to make the lives of the poor and sick practically unliveable which are more unfair.
  
  This explains point 2 above.

  Process State meets populist policy.

  Sure! But for many of the people in point 2, they here the people complaining and consider that they largely are the people who support all of the egregious merciless stuff which hurts people at an existential level.

  I suspect with point 2 most people won’t care simply as it doesn’t affect them and most people probably won’t even know of the policy

  1
• Stuartinromford Posts: 19,404

  August 13

  RochdalePioneers said:

  Malmesbury said:

  RochdalePioneers said:

  VAT on schools:
  1) It will cost the state more money than it raises
  2) Most people don't care because they see this as fair
  3) Schools are using VAT to cover all number of things
  
  I can understand the frustration of parents affected - it is unfair. Then again there are so many things which are egregiously unfair and this isn't anywhere near the top of the unfairness chart. Carers losing their entire allowance for going £1 over the earnings cap? More unfair. And there's stacks of examples of things done by merciless ministers to make the lives of the poor and sick practically unliveable which are more unfair.
  
  This explains point 2 above.

  Process State meets populist policy.

  Sure! But for many of the people in point 2, they here the people complaining and consider that they largely are the people who support all of the egregious merciless stuff which hurts people at an existential level.

  Sam Freedman (yes I know) was good on that in his piece on the anti-VAT campaign;
  
  https://samf.substack.com/p/the-great-vat-panic
  
  The TLDR is that campaigns against government policy work best when you have a back channel negotiation to come up with a mutually-acceptable deal. The Independent Schools Council went straight for berating the policy in the press, and only that, which was never going to work.
  
  Yes, VAT on school fees is another version of "Do it to Julia"; accept that there needs to be pain to balance the books, but that pain should be experienced by other people. A lot of the anger was because people used to getting their way didn't.
  
  (And whilst there will be some blowback from this policy, it will need a massive exodus to be a net negative for the government. There is no sign of that right now. In large part because British private schools are mostly fishing in the global elite market, which isn't very price-sensitive. Hard on those who have gone from just about affording school fees to not affording them, but they're a minority of a minority.)

  2
• HYUFD Posts: 129,537

  August 13

  Labour being seen as weak, incompetent and out of touch certainly means it is vulnerable to defeat at the next general election and being just a one term government.
  
  However if Starmer can get the 25% who see it as doing the right thing it is possible Labour could still scrape most seats in a hung parliament with tactical votes from LD and Green supporters in marginal seats purely to keep Farage from power

  0
• Taz Posts: 20,272

  August 13

  Nigelb said:

  nico67 said:

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  Labour's problem is that, while it's entirely fair to blame the previous government for our present mess, they appear barely to have started thinking about how to address it.
  
  The country's problem is that it's very far from clear that anyone other party has, either.

  They had 14 years in opposition and came to power appearing clueless

  1
• numbertwelve Posts: 7,767

  August 13 edited August 13

  MattW said:

  numbertwelve said:

  I cannot see a way out for Labour unless they are able to break the fiscal headroom/tax rise doom loop that Reeves has shackled them to.
  
  Unless economic parameters markedly improve, or Labour face up to some very difficult choices on spending, this narrative is just going to continue. Another summer, another wave of fevered speculation what taxes will rise next (IHT gifting seemed to be the poison of choice yesterday). It is inescapable for Labour, and it lends to the air of a government in panic and a miserable populace having more misery to endure.
  
  No government can be run like this and expect to be getting any benefit.

  I roughly concur with you.
  
  The Govt have to see perceived life improve (ie "Lived Experience" ) at street level and in eg NHS Service, Housing delivery, "My town feels improved", perceived immigration, and the rest.
  
  As I see it, that is their table stake - and I'm not clear just how many of those are lockouts if they do not deliver, and then they get consideration in the Election Game.
  
  They are correct is blaming nearly everything on the previous headless chicken government, but that card is a Joker with diminishing value, and they have not been ruthless in driving that stake in to the opposition's heart. It will take a full decade to recover, at least, for example in building prisons that were multiply promised followed by a blank hole. But that's where we are.
  
  As I see it, the best they have for the Budget is to do what ought to have been done last autumn.
  
  Consider paying your Private Medical Fees in advance; VAT on those seems logical as a tax rhetorically to hypothecate to NHS Service improvements eg dentistry etc.

  Yes there were some immediate fixes in their first budget that should have been done to get the pain over with quicker. I completely agree with that, and putting the public finances on a firmer footing was necessary.
  
  But I think the problem is deeper than that. I don’t think spending alone will fix the problem. Coming at things from where I see them on the (broadly) centre right, we now have an over regulated process state that finds it increasingly difficult to deliver the innovation, productivity and development that we need to drive growth and create the wealth in the first place. And that spills over into public service delivery too.
  
  That is not the fault of public institutions at local or even national level for the most part. They are obliged to comply with vast swathes of legislation that have been introduced over the years, which now ties us in knots and serves as a brake on progress.
  
  Labour got the message right on planning (one of the things that attracted me to them) but the problem doesn’t just lie there - it is far, far deeper and broader - and I think their first year have shown that Labour is instinctively queasy in confronting this - partly because at its heart, it is a party that broadly accepts the process state in the first place.
  

  1
• HYUFD Posts: 129,537

  August 13

  RochdalePioneers said:

  nico67 said:

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  Social media has been fascinating. The Tories have absolutely ramped it up - a list of the heinous things Labour are doing. Here's what the Conservatives propose. And practically every response calls them out - you made this mess, you did nothing, why didn't you do this in office etc etc.
  
  Reform are eating them alive for the simple reason that they have called out everything the Tories failed to do and laughed at them trying it on. Despite the projected rage from a few and simmering unrest from many, the Tories aren't gaining any ground at all. The opposite seems true.
  
  They can do nothing else with Madam Sneer as leader. She is Flawless and Can Do No Wrong. They need someone more honest - Cleverley not Jenrick.

  If Kemi goes a heavyweight on the economy like Stride would be better

  1
• DecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,286

  August 13

  Jeremy Clarkson leads Cotswolds backlash against JD Vance
  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/08/12/jeremy-clarkson-leads-cotswolds-backlash-jd-vance-usa/ (£££)
  
  Lefty woke BBC Amazon Clarkson. Wasn't there a subplot in The West Wing where the President increases his challenger's security level in order that roadblocks and traffic stops around his rallies should inconvenience more voters?
  
  

  0
• MattW Posts: 29,119

  August 13

  nico67 said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  I don’t see how a 20% VAT increase can lead to an almost doubling of fees . As for Weatherbys Private Bank ! If the Times is looking to elicit some sympathy for the poor struggles of getting Tarquin /Lottie into private school then best not use this elitist bank !

  This feels to me the "doubling" claim seems to me to be nonsense. Like so many other "forecasts", it's very long term and it turns on detailed assumption.
  
  We've already had everything being piled on top, and all of it blamed on VAT - with for example, no mention of reduction of the increase by VAT recovery.
  
  There are other pressures, such as demographic change creating space in the state system, so there's at least an indication for those schools who can of moving upmarket.
  
  There was other commentary last week (Telegraph?) trying to position increased equality in school entrance, ie undermining the impact of very nearby house prices, as an "attack on the middle classes".
  
  Same old politics !

  1
• MattW Posts: 29,119

  August 13

  nico67 said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  I don’t see how a 20% VAT increase can lead to an almost doubling of fees . As for Weatherbys Private Bank ! If the Times is looking to elicit some sympathy for the poor struggles of getting Tarquin /Lottie into private school then best not use this elitist bank !

  This feels to me the "doubling" claim seems to me to be nonsense. Like so many other "forecasts", it's very long term and it turns on detailed assumption.
  
  We've already had everything being piled on top, and all of it blamed on VAT - with for example, no mention of reduction of the increase by VAT recovery.
  
  There are other pressures, such as demographic change creating space in the state system, so there's at least an indication for those schools who can of moving upmarket.
  
  There was other commentary last week (Telegraph?) trying to position increased equality in school entrance, ie undermining the impact of very nearby house prices, as an "attack on the middle classes".
  
  Same old politics !

  0
• MattW Posts: 29,119

  August 13

  nico67 said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  I don’t see how a 20% VAT increase can lead to an almost doubling of fees . As for Weatherbys Private Bank ! If the Times is looking to elicit some sympathy for the poor struggles of getting Tarquin /Lottie into private school then best not use this elitist bank !

  This feels to me the "doubling" claim seems to me to be nonsense. Like so many other "forecasts", it's very long term and it turns on detailed assumption.
  
  We've already had everything being piled on top, and all of it blamed on VAT - with for example, no mention of reduction of the increase by VAT recovery.
  
  There are other pressures, such as demographic change creating space in the state system, so there's at least an indication for those schools who can of moving upmarket.
  
  There was other commentary last week (Telegraph?) trying to position increased equality in school entrance, ie undermining the impact of very nearby house prices, as an "attack on the middle classes".
  
  Same old politics !

  0
• AnneJGP Posts: 3,825

  August 13

  Taz said:

  Nigelb said:

  nico67 said:

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  Labour's problem is that, while it's entirely fair to blame the previous government for our present mess, they appear barely to have started thinking about how to address it.
  
  The country's problem is that it's very far from clear that anyone other party has, either.

  They had 14 years in opposition and came to power appearing clueless

  Maybe all their thought & energy went into planning how to get elected, and they forgot to think about what to do when they were elected.

  3
• HYUFD Posts: 129,537

  August 13

  Battlebus said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  Buy a house (or two) near a good state school as prices will just go up.

  As they will in counties and local authorities which still have grammar schools
  

  0
• algarkirk Posts: 15,149

  August 13

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  OTOH, spending per pupil in the state secondary sector - which nearly everyone uses including my family - is about £7500 per pupil. The private sector could, if it wanted, still have enormous 'advantages' (as they see it) over us oiks at much lower cost than they charge.
  
  And, BTW, the idea that private schools, except those that have admission policies that take no regard of ability to pay, should be charities has always been nonsense.

  1
• Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,671

  August 13

  Morris_Dancer said:

  Good morning, everyone.
  
  

  Theuniondivvie said:

  It’s better to be feared than loved.
  Though to be neither is the worst.
  
  As I’ve probably observed before, principles in politics are traditionally seen as weakness or a burden. However in fact they are something that can provide the foundation of trying to enact unpopular or painful policies. If voters believe that politicians’ principles are sincerely held they tend to respect the holders even if they don’t agree with them. Unfortunately for SKS and Labour the general (probably correct) perception that they have no strong or consistent attachment to a principle is becoming entrenched.
  
  Of course you also have the weird scenario where true believers have faith in the good intentions of the most obviously principle-free reprobates going. No names, no pack drill.

  Don't forget the rest of Machiavelli's line. The most important thing is to avoid being hated.

  Depending of the level of hatred, I'd say avoiding being despised is most important in the modern age.
  Of course in the good old days being hated could lead to you being eaten.
  
  'In the hysteria that followed, he and his brother Cornelis de Witt were blamed and lynched in The Hague, with their corpses at least partially eaten by the rioters'
  
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johan_de_Witt

  0
• HYUFD Posts: 129,537

  August 13

  Casino_Royale said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  Stuartinromford said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  Good heavens, I hate those "bad things X after disliked thing Y" headlines. Implies a causal relationship, often when there isn't one. (See the third paragraph, and then remember that private schools have been increasing their fees faster than inflation for ages.)

  Tell me about, my boys, they've lost three friends over the last year as their parents can no longer afford the fees, only one was directly attributable to the VAT introduction.

  Similar for my daughter, although she's lost three due to the VAT introduction and we're now changing schools for her.
  
  We expect to be totally priced out in years to come but, for now,trying to stick with it.

  Thank God for Gove and his free schools too, a few smaller private schools at risk might try and go down that route

  1
• DecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,286

  August 13

  Gen Z students taught to make phone calls in preparation for university clearing
  Schools holding workshops on basic phone skills ahead of A-level results day
  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/08/12/gen-z-students-ucas-phone-calls-university-clearing/ (£££)
  
  No wonder teachers are stressed. One moment the government says ban phones in schools, the next, it's how to use a phone lessons.
  
  Have infants schools stopped doing that thing with the string and baked bean cans?

  0
• algarkirk Posts: 15,149

  August 13

  Taz said:

  nico67 said:

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  The same ‘right wing media’ that was so favourable to the Tories 😂

  SFAICS there is no discernable set of political strategies, policies and underlying thought system which finds favour with the 'popular' media at the moment.
  
  In the olden days it was possible for a media outfit to be broadly 'pro social democracy', 'pro free market and deregulation', 'pro state ownership of the big economic beasts', as a broad set of ways forward. That's all gone. There is a gap in the market for popular thought.

  0
• Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,376

  August 13

  Nigelb said:

  nico67 said:

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  Labour's problem is that, while it's entirely fair to blame the previous government for our present mess, they appear barely to have started thinking about how to address it.
  
  The country's problem is that it's very far from clear that anyone other party has, either.

  Good morning
  
  So true and so depressing
  
  I have no idea how any of the parties provide a solution and that includes the Lib Dems and Greens
  
  However, it is fair to say Starmer is not PM material and Reeves certainly is not COE material either, and with huge tax increases on the horizon I cannot see how labour recovers, and that is without Magic Grandpa and Sultana getting their act together
  
  My granddaughter, fresh with her degree from Leeds, has applied for 60 jobs with no success and is now on UC
  
  How the next government will cope is for discussion but I would be amazed if labour were part of it

  1
• HYUFD Posts: 129,537

  August 13

  Taz said:

  Nigelb said:

  Interesting set of numbers.
  Individually, I'm not sure they mean all that much (does anyone actually give much real consideration to "key metrics" ?); it's simply that around two thirds of the country really don't like this government.
  
  Without significant economic progress, that is not going to change. Stagnation plus higher taxes certainly won't do it.

  Given the current govt is looking to tax their way out of the mess we are in we’re doomed to it.
  
  I actually think this govt has improved this year, but from a very low base, but we are in 1975 not 1998 and the worst is yet to come.
  
  Where Reform could really offer an alternative is with fiscal discipline. However they won’t as many of their supporters are social conservative but fiscally liberal.

  Kemi is offering Milei style slashed spending alongside lower tax anyway, fiscal conservatives may as well stay Tory now

  0
• algarkirk Posts: 15,149

  August 13

  AnneJGP said:

  Taz said:

  Nigelb said:

  nico67 said:

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  Labour's problem is that, while it's entirely fair to blame the previous government for our present mess, they appear barely to have started thinking about how to address it.
  
  The country's problem is that it's very far from clear that anyone other party has, either.

  They had 14 years in opposition and came to power appearing clueless

  Maybe all their thought & energy went into planning how to get elected, and they forgot to think about what to do when they were elected.

  Considering that point WRT Reform is interesting and now is the time to be doing it. They have a route to election as government; very few are giving thought to how they will actually govern. (Such policies as they have don't help much with answering the question).
  
  

  1
• Concanvasser Posts: 209

  August 13

  Polling like this, showing the extent to which Labour is already widely loathed, demonstrates why the idea that Conservative voters will vote Labour tactically to keep out Reform is for the birds.
  
  There is a massive and growing anti-Labour vote out there and where Reform are clearly best placed to beat Labour, the majority of Con voters will place their crosses to kick Labour accordingly imo.
  

  2
• Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,376

  August 13

  HYUFD said:

  Battlebus said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  Buy a house (or two) near a good state school as prices will just go up.

  As they will in counties and local authorities which still have grammar schools
  

  If they can afford the prices

  0
• algarkirk Posts: 15,149

  August 13

  HYUFD said:

  Taz said:

  Nigelb said:

  Interesting set of numbers.
  Individually, I'm not sure they mean all that much (does anyone actually give much real consideration to "key metrics" ?); it's simply that around two thirds of the country really don't like this government.
  
  Without significant economic progress, that is not going to change. Stagnation plus higher taxes certainly won't do it.

  Given the current govt is looking to tax their way out of the mess we are in we’re doomed to it.
  
  I actually think this govt has improved this year, but from a very low base, but we are in 1975 not 1998 and the worst is yet to come.
  
  Where Reform could really offer an alternative is with fiscal discipline. However they won’t as many of their supporters are social conservative but fiscally liberal.

  Kemi is offering Milei style slashed spending alongside lower tax anyway, fiscal conservatives may as well stay Tory now

  Remind us where Kemi's first £100 billion of reduced spending is coming from?

  0
• boulay Posts: 6,846

  August 13

  Stuartinromford said:

  RochdalePioneers said:

  Malmesbury said:

  RochdalePioneers said:

  VAT on schools:
  1) It will cost the state more money than it raises
  2) Most people don't care because they see this as fair
  3) Schools are using VAT to cover all number of things
  
  I can understand the frustration of parents affected - it is unfair. Then again there are so many things which are egregiously unfair and this isn't anywhere near the top of the unfairness chart. Carers losing their entire allowance for going £1 over the earnings cap? More unfair. And there's stacks of examples of things done by merciless ministers to make the lives of the poor and sick practically unliveable which are more unfair.
  
  This explains point 2 above.

  Process State meets populist policy.

  Sure! But for many of the people in point 2, they here the people complaining and consider that they largely are the people who support all of the egregious merciless stuff which hurts people at an existential level.

  Sam Freedman (yes I know) was good on that in his piece on the anti-VAT campaign;
  
  https://samf.substack.com/p/the-great-vat-panic
  
  The TLDR is that campaigns against government policy work best when you have a back channel negotiation to come up with a mutually-acceptable deal. The Independent Schools Council went straight for berating the policy in the press, and only that, which was never going to work.
  
  Yes, VAT on school fees is another version of "Do it to Julia"; accept that there needs to be pain to balance the books, but that pain should be experienced by other people. A lot of the anger was because people used to getting their way didn't.
  
  (And whilst there will be some blowback from this policy, it will need a massive exodus to be a net negative for the government. There is no sign of that right now. In large part because British private schools are mostly fishing in the global elite market, which isn't very price-sensitive. Hard on those who have gone from just about affording school fees to not affording them, but they're a minority of a minority.)

  Is that true? Would like to see some figures to back that up. My gut is that it’s true for the Public Schools and the London private schools but the vast majority of private schools aren’t them, they are private schools in towns and cities with good local reputations attracting the children of local professionals or they are the only alternative to failing state schools in an area where people decide to make a financial sacrifice to pay for their childrens’ education.
  
  These are the schools that will suffer - the public schools with international or national reputation and big endowments alongside the London private day schools with a big global wealthy community to fill places who would never dream of sending their children off to board will largely be fine.

  4
• HYUFD Posts: 129,537

  August 13

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  nico67 said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  I don’t see how a 20% VAT increase can lead to an almost doubling of fees . As for Weatherbys Private Bank ! If the Times is looking to elicit some sympathy for the poor struggles of getting Tarquin /Lottie into private school then best not use this elitist bank !

  Elitist? Nah, they are a bank for jockeys.
  
  C. Hoare & Co, Barclays Private Banking, Arbuthnot Latham, that's elite.
  
  (I am enjoined from having C. Hoare & Co as my bankers because I would tell the world 'My bankers are Hoares'.

  Are you advertising for an ex PBer?

  0
• numbertwelve Posts: 7,767

  August 13 edited August 13

  HYUFD said:

  Taz said:

  Nigelb said:

  Interesting set of numbers.
  Individually, I'm not sure they mean all that much (does anyone actually give much real consideration to "key metrics" ?); it's simply that around two thirds of the country really don't like this government.
  
  Without significant economic progress, that is not going to change. Stagnation plus higher taxes certainly won't do it.

  Given the current govt is looking to tax their way out of the mess we are in we’re doomed to it.
  
  I actually think this govt has improved this year, but from a very low base, but we are in 1975 not 1998 and the worst is yet to come.
  
  Where Reform could really offer an alternative is with fiscal discipline. However they won’t as many of their supporters are social conservative but fiscally liberal.

  Kemi is offering Milei style slashed spending alongside lower tax anyway, fiscal conservatives may as well stay Tory now

  Politely, Kemi doesn’t have a clue right now because she’s not put much of a marker out in terms of her positioning and the party hasn’t moved on from fighting the last war.
  
  She can talk about Milei all she wants but this has been the problem with the Tories for years - all talk and absolutely no guts or vision to follow through with anything. If she means business she’s going to have to start practically setting out and winning the argument on some of this stuff - backed up with genuine policies (a hard ask when the media is looking elsewhere) and sounding like she actually has the drive, belief and team to deliver it.

  1
• Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,376

  August 13

  algarkirk said:

  HYUFD said:

  Taz said:

  Nigelb said:

  Interesting set of numbers.
  Individually, I'm not sure they mean all that much (does anyone actually give much real consideration to "key metrics" ?); it's simply that around two thirds of the country really don't like this government.
  
  Without significant economic progress, that is not going to change. Stagnation plus higher taxes certainly won't do it.

  Given the current govt is looking to tax their way out of the mess we are in we’re doomed to it.
  
  I actually think this govt has improved this year, but from a very low base, but we are in 1975 not 1998 and the worst is yet to come.
  
  Where Reform could really offer an alternative is with fiscal discipline. However they won’t as many of their supporters are social conservative but fiscally liberal.

  Kemi is offering Milei style slashed spending alongside lower tax anyway, fiscal conservatives may as well stay Tory now

  Remind us where Kemi's first £100 billion of reduced spending is coming from?

  The question is whether it is over a Parliament or quicker

  0
• Nigelb Posts: 80,168

  August 13

  .

  Taz said:

  Nigelb said:

  nico67 said:

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  Labour's problem is that, while it's entirely fair to blame the previous government for our present mess, they appear barely to have started thinking about how to address it.
  
  The country's problem is that it's very far from clear that anyone other party has, either.

  They had 14 years in opposition and came to power appearing clueless

  And their predecessors, with all the advantages of government, left power even more clueless.
  
  Anne is quite right to suggest that all our politicians seem far more interested in power than they do in policy.

  3
• Taz Posts: 20,272

  August 13

  algarkirk said:

  Taz said:

  nico67 said:

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  The same ‘right wing media’ that was so favourable to the Tories 😂

  SFAICS there is no discernable set of political strategies, policies and underlying thought system which finds favour with the 'popular' media at the moment.
  
  In the olden days it was possible for a media outfit to be broadly 'pro social democracy', 'pro free market and deregulation', 'pro state ownership of the big economic beasts', as a broad set of ways forward. That's all gone. There is a gap in the market for popular thought.

  I wonder if, in this age of driving engagement and clickbait, that dumping on whoever is in charge is just good for driving traffic and thoughtful pieces on policy or strategy just don’t cut it in that market.

  1
• RochdalePioneers Posts: 30,708

  August 13

  I've been posting a little less on here recently:
  
  I've started a new business - which I envisage will become my primary business interest next year
  I'm still doing consulting work for clients
  Merged the two small family retail operations into one, and building social media for those delivering increases in revenue
  Just Get A Tesla YouTube is now releasing 3 videos a week with a consummate increase in revenues
  Politics has woken up - I'm completing the seat selection process to run for Holyrood
  Emergency Podcast YouTube has been relaunched - we're doing 1 big video a week and clipping for reels which are starting to build an audience
  I'm doing my own 60 second politics reels on X and TikTok which are getting great interaction straight out of the box
  
  Everything is business! Even politics as my consulting / media production business is technically producing all content I create on all channels...

  2
• algarkirk Posts: 15,149

  August 13

  Big_G_NorthWales said:

  algarkirk said:

  HYUFD said:

  Taz said:

  Nigelb said:

  Interesting set of numbers.
  Individually, I'm not sure they mean all that much (does anyone actually give much real consideration to "key metrics" ?); it's simply that around two thirds of the country really don't like this government.
  
  Without significant economic progress, that is not going to change. Stagnation plus higher taxes certainly won't do it.

  Given the current govt is looking to tax their way out of the mess we are in we’re doomed to it.
  
  I actually think this govt has improved this year, but from a very low base, but we are in 1975 not 1998 and the worst is yet to come.
  
  Where Reform could really offer an alternative is with fiscal discipline. However they won’t as many of their supporters are social conservative but fiscally liberal.

  Kemi is offering Milei style slashed spending alongside lower tax anyway, fiscal conservatives may as well stay Tory now

  Remind us where Kemi's first £100 billion of reduced spending is coming from?

  The question is whether it is over a Parliament or quicker

  Regardless of timescale, 'slashing' spending still has to identify where it applies whether in 2029 or 2039. £100 billion per year is much less than 10% of spending, so it's a decent start. So I think the Tories owe us a back of an envelope sort of idea. I have none at the moment.

  1
• Taz Posts: 20,272

  August 13

  Nigelb said:

  .

  Taz said:

  Nigelb said:

  nico67 said:

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  Labour's problem is that, while it's entirely fair to blame the previous government for our present mess, they appear barely to have started thinking about how to address it.
  
  The country's problem is that it's very far from clear that anyone other party has, either.

  They had 14 years in opposition and came to power appearing clueless

  And their predecessors, with all the advantages of government, left power even more clueless.
  
  Anne is quite right to suggest that all our politicians seem far more interested in power than they do in policy.

  Quite frankly it’s not really about the last government as they were booted for very good reasons. It’s about this one. They’re in charge and we’re living with it.
  
  They plot for power, get it, don’t know what to do with it. They cannot even get legislation through with a large majority. Part of the problem is in opposition they don’t really want to develop policy until close to the election for fear of scrutiny.

  2
• Taz Posts: 20,272

  August 13

  HYUFD said:

  Taz said:

  Nigelb said:

  Interesting set of numbers.
  Individually, I'm not sure they mean all that much (does anyone actually give much real consideration to "key metrics" ?); it's simply that around two thirds of the country really don't like this government.
  
  Without significant economic progress, that is not going to change. Stagnation plus higher taxes certainly won't do it.

  Given the current govt is looking to tax their way out of the mess we are in we’re doomed to it.
  
  I actually think this govt has improved this year, but from a very low base, but we are in 1975 not 1998 and the worst is yet to come.
  
  Where Reform could really offer an alternative is with fiscal discipline. However they won’t as many of their supporters are social conservative but fiscally liberal.

  Kemi is offering Milei style slashed spending alongside lower tax anyway, fiscal conservatives may as well stay Tory now

  Is she ?
  
  She’s spoken about means testing the triple lock, which is stupid and would be needlessly bureaucratic.
  
  What Millei style spending cuts is she offering. What is she proposing to cut ?
  
  

  3
• bondegezou Posts: 15,638

  August 13

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  Stuartinromford said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  Good heavens, I hate those "bad things X after disliked thing Y" headlines. Implies a causal relationship, often when there isn't one. (See the third paragraph, and then remember that private schools have been increasing their fees faster than inflation for ages.)

  Tell me about, my boys, they've lost three friends over the last year as their parents can no longer afford the fees, only one was directly attributable to the VAT introduction.

  https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/vat-england-government-department-for-education-independent-schools-council-b1231409.html
  
  "The number of pupils in private schools in England has decreased by 1.9% in the past year – from 593,486 in January 2024 to 582,477 in January this year."
  
  2%. That's less than one pupil per average class. And even that fall is not all due to VAT given state school numbers are down as well. From https://schoolsweek.co.uk/private-school-vat-raids-whats-the-actual-impact/ :
  
  

  0
• Stuartinromford Posts: 19,404

  August 13

  Big_G_NorthWales said:

  Nigelb said:

  nico67 said:

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  Labour's problem is that, while it's entirely fair to blame the previous government for our present mess, they appear barely to have started thinking about how to address it.
  
  The country's problem is that it's very far from clear that anyone other party has, either.

  Good morning
  
  So true and so depressing
  
  I have no idea how any of the parties provide a solution and that includes the Lib Dems and Greens
  
  However, it is fair to say Starmer is not PM material and Reeves certainly is not COE material either, and with huge tax increases on the horizon I cannot see how labour recovers, and that is without Magic Grandpa and Sultana getting their act together
  
  My granddaughter, fresh with her degree from Leeds, has applied for 60 jobs with no success and is now on UC
  
  How the next government will cope is for discussion but I would be amazed if labour were part of it

  It's all very well saying Starmer and Reeves aren't up to the job. (I don't think the vacancy for Labour leader in 2020 was about being a PM in waiting, but there you go.) The real question is twofold;
  
  1 Is there anyone else on the political scene who would be doing better? Badenoch is worse. Farage is worse. If you think (as I do) that Sunak and Hunt spent their final year laying traps for their successors, they are worse.
  
  2 If the Prime Ministers we have had in recent decades have all been horribly flawed, maybe the problem is the role and our expectations, not the people who have done it.

  0
• bondegezou Posts: 15,638

  August 13

  boulay said:

  Stuartinromford said:

  RochdalePioneers said:

  Malmesbury said:

  RochdalePioneers said:

  VAT on schools:
  1) It will cost the state more money than it raises
  2) Most people don't care because they see this as fair
  3) Schools are using VAT to cover all number of things
  
  I can understand the frustration of parents affected - it is unfair. Then again there are so many things which are egregiously unfair and this isn't anywhere near the top of the unfairness chart. Carers losing their entire allowance for going £1 over the earnings cap? More unfair. And there's stacks of examples of things done by merciless ministers to make the lives of the poor and sick practically unliveable which are more unfair.
  
  This explains point 2 above.

  Process State meets populist policy.

  Sure! But for many of the people in point 2, they here the people complaining and consider that they largely are the people who support all of the egregious merciless stuff which hurts people at an existential level.

  Sam Freedman (yes I know) was good on that in his piece on the anti-VAT campaign;
  
  https://samf.substack.com/p/the-great-vat-panic
  
  The TLDR is that campaigns against government policy work best when you have a back channel negotiation to come up with a mutually-acceptable deal. The Independent Schools Council went straight for berating the policy in the press, and only that, which was never going to work.
  
  Yes, VAT on school fees is another version of "Do it to Julia"; accept that there needs to be pain to balance the books, but that pain should be experienced by other people. A lot of the anger was because people used to getting their way didn't.
  
  (And whilst there will be some blowback from this policy, it will need a massive exodus to be a net negative for the government. There is no sign of that right now. In large part because British private schools are mostly fishing in the global elite market, which isn't very price-sensitive. Hard on those who have gone from just about affording school fees to not affording them, but they're a minority of a minority.)

  Is that true? Would like to see some figures to back that up. My gut is that it’s true for the Public Schools and the London private schools but the vast majority of private schools aren’t them, they are private schools in towns and cities with good local reputations attracting the children of local professionals or they are the only alternative to failing state schools in an area where people decide to make a financial sacrifice to pay for their childrens’ education.
  
  These are the schools that will suffer - the public schools with international or national reputation and big endowments alongside the London private day schools with a big global wealthy community to fill places who would never dream of sending their children off to board will largely be fine.

  https://www.pepf.co.uk/fact-finder/facts-and-figures/ says
  
  Excluding international schools, about 5% of private school pupils are non-British with parents living abroad. The largest group are from China (both mainland and Hong Kong).
  
  Another 5% are non-British but with parents who live in Britain.

  0
• Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,376

  August 13

  Stuartinromford said:

  Big_G_NorthWales said:

  Nigelb said:

  nico67 said:

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  Labour's problem is that, while it's entirely fair to blame the previous government for our present mess, they appear barely to have started thinking about how to address it.
  
  The country's problem is that it's very far from clear that anyone other party has, either.

  Good morning
  
  So true and so depressing
  
  I have no idea how any of the parties provide a solution and that includes the Lib Dems and Greens
  
  However, it is fair to say Starmer is not PM material and Reeves certainly is not COE material either, and with huge tax increases on the horizon I cannot see how labour recovers, and that is without Magic Grandpa and Sultana getting their act together
  
  My granddaughter, fresh with her degree from Leeds, has applied for 60 jobs with no success and is now on UC
  
  How the next government will cope is for discussion but I would be amazed if labour were part of it

  It's all very well saying Starmer and Reeves aren't up to the job. (I don't think the vacancy for Labour leader in 2020 was about being a PM in waiting, but there you go.) The real question is twofold;
  
  1 Is there anyone else on the political scene who would be doing better? Badenoch is worse. Farage is worse. If you think (as I do) that Sunak and Hunt spent their final year laying traps for their successors, they are worse.
  
  2 If the Prime Ministers we have had in recent decades have all been horribly flawed, maybe the problem is the role and our expectations, not the people who have done it.

  I repeat Starmer and Reeves are not upto the job and that is obvious by the poll ratings
  
  Now who is is a separate question, but not an excuse to give Starmer and Reeves aa pass by suggesting everyone else is worse

  2
• bondegezou Posts: 15,638

  August 13

  RochdalePioneers said:

  VAT on schools:
  1) It will cost the state more money than it raises
  2) Most people don't care because they see this as fair
  3) Schools are using VAT to cover all number of things
  
  I can understand the frustration of parents affected - it is unfair. Then again there are so many things which are egregiously unfair and this isn't anywhere near the top of the unfairness chart. Carers losing their entire allowance for going £1 over the earnings cap? More unfair. And there's stacks of examples of things done by merciless ministers to make the lives of the poor and sick practically unliveable which are more unfair.
  
  This explains point 2 above.

  (1) is clearly not true. The predicted mass exodus of pupils to state schools has not occurred.

  1
• MarqueeMark Posts: 55,612

  August 13

  Stuartinromford said:

  Big_G_NorthWales said:

  Nigelb said:

  nico67 said:

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  Labour's problem is that, while it's entirely fair to blame the previous government for our present mess, they appear barely to have started thinking about how to address it.
  
  The country's problem is that it's very far from clear that anyone other party has, either.

  Good morning
  
  So true and so depressing
  
  I have no idea how any of the parties provide a solution and that includes the Lib Dems and Greens
  
  However, it is fair to say Starmer is not PM material and Reeves certainly is not COE material either, and with huge tax increases on the horizon I cannot see how labour recovers, and that is without Magic Grandpa and Sultana getting their act together
  
  My granddaughter, fresh with her degree from Leeds, has applied for 60 jobs with no success and is now on UC
  
  How the next government will cope is for discussion but I would be amazed if labour were part of it

  It's all very well saying Starmer and Reeves aren't up to the job. (I don't think the vacancy for Labour leader in 2020 was about being a PM in waiting, but there you go.) The real question is twofold;
  
  1 Is there anyone else on the political scene who would be doing better? Badenoch is worse. Farage is worse. If you think (as I do) that Sunak and Hunt spent their final year laying traps for their successors, they are worse.
  
  2 If the Prime Ministers we have had in recent decades have all been horribly flawed, maybe the problem is the role and our expectations, not the people who have done it.

  Laying traps? Citation required.
  
  I'd swap back Sunak and Hunt in a heartbeat for what replaced them. They were dealt the shittiest hand of any post-war Government, but at least looked like they knew what needed doing.

  5
• Taz Posts: 20,272

  August 13

  Big_G_NorthWales said:

  Stuartinromford said:

  Big_G_NorthWales said:

  Nigelb said:

  nico67 said:

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  Labour's problem is that, while it's entirely fair to blame the previous government for our present mess, they appear barely to have started thinking about how to address it.
  
  The country's problem is that it's very far from clear that anyone other party has, either.

  Good morning
  
  So true and so depressing
  
  I have no idea how any of the parties provide a solution and that includes the Lib Dems and Greens
  
  However, it is fair to say Starmer is not PM material and Reeves certainly is not COE material either, and with huge tax increases on the horizon I cannot see how labour recovers, and that is without Magic Grandpa and Sultana getting their act together
  
  My granddaughter, fresh with her degree from Leeds, has applied for 60 jobs with no success and is now on UC
  
  How the next government will cope is for discussion but I would be amazed if labour were part of it

  It's all very well saying Starmer and Reeves aren't up to the job. (I don't think the vacancy for Labour leader in 2020 was about being a PM in waiting, but there you go.) The real question is twofold;
  
  1 Is there anyone else on the political scene who would be doing better? Badenoch is worse. Farage is worse. If you think (as I do) that Sunak and Hunt spent their final year laying traps for their successors, they are worse.
  
  2 If the Prime Ministers we have had in recent decades have all been horribly flawed, maybe the problem is the role and our expectations, not the people who have done it.

  I repeat Starmer and Reeves are not upto the job and that is obvious by the poll ratings
  
  Now who is is a separate question, but not an excuse to give Starmer and Reeves aa pass by suggesting everyone else is worse

  I doubt Rayner is up to it too and she’s the favourite to replace him if he goes

  0
• boulay Posts: 6,846

  August 13

  …

  bondegezou said:

  boulay said:

  Stuartinromford said:

  RochdalePioneers said:

  Malmesbury said:

  RochdalePioneers said:

  VAT on schools:
  1) It will cost the state more money than it raises
  2) Most people don't care because they see this as fair
  3) Schools are using VAT to cover all number of things
  
  I can understand the frustration of parents affected - it is unfair. Then again there are so many things which are egregiously unfair and this isn't anywhere near the top of the unfairness chart. Carers losing their entire allowance for going £1 over the earnings cap? More unfair. And there's stacks of examples of things done by merciless ministers to make the lives of the poor and sick practically unliveable which are more unfair.
  
  This explains point 2 above.

  Process State meets populist policy.

  Sure! But for many of the people in point 2, they here the people complaining and consider that they largely are the people who support all of the egregious merciless stuff which hurts people at an existential level.

  Sam Freedman (yes I know) was good on that in his piece on the anti-VAT campaign;
  
  https://samf.substack.com/p/the-great-vat-panic
  
  The TLDR is that campaigns against government policy work best when you have a back channel negotiation to come up with a mutually-acceptable deal. The Independent Schools Council went straight for berating the policy in the press, and only that, which was never going to work.
  
  Yes, VAT on school fees is another version of "Do it to Julia"; accept that there needs to be pain to balance the books, but that pain should be experienced by other people. A lot of the anger was because people used to getting their way didn't.
  
  (And whilst there will be some blowback from this policy, it will need a massive exodus to be a net negative for the government. There is no sign of that right now. In large part because British private schools are mostly fishing in the global elite market, which isn't very price-sensitive. Hard on those who have gone from just about affording school fees to not affording them, but they're a minority of a minority.)

  Is that true? Would like to see some figures to back that up. My gut is that it’s true for the Public Schools and the London private schools but the vast majority of private schools aren’t them, they are private schools in towns and cities with good local reputations attracting the children of local professionals or they are the only alternative to failing state schools in an area where people decide to make a financial sacrifice to pay for their childrens’ education.
  
  These are the schools that will suffer - the public schools with international or national reputation and big endowments alongside the London private day schools with a big global wealthy community to fill places who would never dream of sending their children off to board will largely be fine.

  https://www.pepf.co.uk/fact-finder/facts-and-figures/ says
  
  Excluding international schools, about 5% of private school pupils are non-British with parents living abroad. The largest group are from China (both mainland and Hong Kong).
  
  Another 5% are non-British but with parents who live in Britain.

  So British private schools really are not fishing in the global elite market and so are sensitive to price moves and not damaging a minority of a minority.

  0
• Barnesian Posts: 9,262

  August 13

  Nigelb said:

  .

  nico67 said:

  TheScreamingEagles said:

  The struggle is real.
  
  The cost of sending children to private school will almost double after the introduction of VAT on fees, analysis suggests.
  
  The parents of a privately educated child leaving school this year after A-levels are likely to have spent an average of £204,622 on fees, according to Weatherbys Private Bank. The cost of putting a child of the same age through boarding school is estimated to have been £413,471. However, costs vary widely with the Good Schools Guide putting the highest annual fees at £75,000.
  
  Weatherbys says that for a child starting in reception at a private school this September the cost could ultimately reach £377,000 — £763,000 if they were boarding. This assumed annual inflation of 3 per cent, which accounts for two thirds of the increase, with VAT responsible for the rest.
  
  Last September private schools put up fees by an average 6.7 per cent. When 20 per cent VAT was imposed in January, many schools initially cut fees by 5 per cent to cushion parents from the immediate impact, but overall, the average fee rose by about 22 per cent.
  
  https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/money/article/total-cost-of-private-school-to-almost-double-to-380000-nh0bs330g

  I don’t see how a 20% VAT increase can lead to an almost doubling of fees . As for Weatherbys Private Bank ! If the Times is looking to elicit some sympathy for the poor struggles of getting Tarquin /Lottie into private school then best not use this elitist bank !

  Because it's comparing what a child leaving this year will have to have paid in fees compared with on leaving a number if years into the future.
  And the figures aren't inflation adjusted.

  Yes it's a scare story for innumerates.

  0
• bondegezou Posts: 15,638

  August 13

  Taz said:

  Big_G_NorthWales said:

  Stuartinromford said:

  Big_G_NorthWales said:

  Nigelb said:

  nico67 said:

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  Labour's problem is that, while it's entirely fair to blame the previous government for our present mess, they appear barely to have started thinking about how to address it.
  
  The country's problem is that it's very far from clear that anyone other party has, either.

  Good morning
  
  So true and so depressing
  
  I have no idea how any of the parties provide a solution and that includes the Lib Dems and Greens
  
  However, it is fair to say Starmer is not PM material and Reeves certainly is not COE material either, and with huge tax increases on the horizon I cannot see how labour recovers, and that is without Magic Grandpa and Sultana getting their act together
  
  My granddaughter, fresh with her degree from Leeds, has applied for 60 jobs with no success and is now on UC
  
  How the next government will cope is for discussion but I would be amazed if labour were part of it

  It's all very well saying Starmer and Reeves aren't up to the job. (I don't think the vacancy for Labour leader in 2020 was about being a PM in waiting, but there you go.) The real question is twofold;
  
  1 Is there anyone else on the political scene who would be doing better? Badenoch is worse. Farage is worse. If you think (as I do) that Sunak and Hunt spent their final year laying traps for their successors, they are worse.
  
  2 If the Prime Ministers we have had in recent decades have all been horribly flawed, maybe the problem is the role and our expectations, not the people who have done it.

  I repeat Starmer and Reeves are not upto the job and that is obvious by the poll ratings
  
  Now who is is a separate question, but not an excuse to give Starmer and Reeves aa pass by suggesting everyone else is worse

  I doubt Rayner is up to it too and she’s the favourite to replace him if he goes

  Although favourites in next leader markets often fail to succeed.

  0
• stodge Posts: 15,090

  August 13

  Morning all
  
  Yes, poor numbers for Labour but I think we know if any other party were in Government at this time their numbers would be as bad if not worse.
  
  It's often said some elections are "bad ones to win" - 1992 being a good example - but 2024 would be right up there it seems. I'll be honest (and this seems a peculiarly London-centric view) - I don't think Starmer is doing too badly. At worst he's Continuity Sunak but big shifts in governance aren't easy - as has been said, there were probably only three really radical Governments in the 20th century - Asquith, Attlee and Thatcher.
  
  In a globally interconnected world, doing something radical isn't easy and even within Britain one decision impacts on others. Cuts in public spending on the scale some here would seem to want don't end at the balance sheet - they would impact real people in their daily lives, perhaps not the individuals and their families urging the deep cuts but nonetheless.
  
  Government is difficult especially at a time of weak economic growth - however you try to slice the cake someone complains about their share or lack of it. I do agree some of the initial ideas of the new Government were implemented in a hamfisted way - removing Winter Fuel Allowance from higher rate taxpayers while retaining it for those on basic rate would probably have been sellable. The "boats" defy all attempts at a solution for now though I suspect autumn and winter will slow things down a bit.
  
  Cutting Peter's benefits to ensure Paul pays less tax isn't the answer and nor is raising Paul's taxes so Peter can keep all his benefits so it becomes dancing on a pinhead in terms of what you can and can't do.
  
  It also becomes easier to look for scapegoats - blame the migrants, blame the scroungers, blame those with mental and physical challenges, blame those with long Covid, blame the last Government, blame this Government etc.
  
  You can see the attraction of masterly inactivity and the destiny of the poor can as it gets propelled once more down the road. You can also see why those peddling "easy answers" get traction.

  1
• Stuartinromford Posts: 19,404

  August 13

  Taz said:

  Nigelb said:

  .

  Taz said:

  Nigelb said:

  nico67 said:

  I don’t think I’ve seen such relentless bad press for any other government. Of course not helped by the right wing media deciding that a lot of the problems caused mainly by the Tories is now to be owned by Labour alone . It’s pretty clear that had the Tories duped enough voters the country would still be in a mess .
  
  

  Labour's problem is that, while it's entirely fair to blame the previous government for our present mess, they appear barely to have started thinking about how to address it.
  
  The country's problem is that it's very far from clear that anyone other party has, either.

  They had 14 years in opposition and came to power appearing clueless

  And their predecessors, with all the advantages of government, left power even more clueless.
  
  Anne is quite right to suggest that all our politicians seem far more interested in power than they do in policy.

  Quite frankly it’s not really about the last government as they were booted for very good reasons. It’s about this one. They’re in charge and we’re living with it.
  
  They plot for power, get it, don’t know what to do with it. They cannot even get legislation through with a large majority. Part of the problem is in opposition they don’t really want to develop policy until close to the election for fear of scrutiny.

  Two important caveats there, though.
  
  One is that a Labour win didn't look at all on the cards until 2022 or so. Planning a manifesto to lose with dignity is different to planning a project for government.
  
  The other is the boots-on-the ground practicalities of government. Getting to talk to civil servants and suchlike. Prior to 1997 and 2010, those access talks started about sixteen months before the election. Starmer had less than five months. It shows.

  1
• MarqueeMark Posts: 55,612

  August 13

  Trump downgrades his discussion with Putin as "fact finding".
  
  How long before he discovers the fact that Putin is a land-grabbing c*** who uses terror as his one and only tactic, destroying homes, hospitals, schools to get his way? And discovers that hundreds, thousands of innocent Ukrainians have died whilst Trump keeps cutting Vlad some more weeks and months of slack?

  1
• bondegezou Posts: 15,638

  August 13

  MarqueeMark said:

  Trump downgrades his discussion with Putin as "fact finding".
  
  How long before he discovers the fact that Putin is a land-grabbing c*** who uses terror as his one and only tactic, destroying homes, hospitals, schools to get his way? And discovers that hundreds, thousands of innocent Ukrainians have died whilst Trump keeps cutting Vlad some more weeks and months of slack?

  Sadly, he will never understand that.

  0
• Foxy Posts: 52,592

  August 13

  bondegezou said:

  boulay said:

  Stuartinromford said:

  RochdalePioneers said:

  Malmesbury said:

  RochdalePioneers said:

  VAT on schools:
  1) It will cost the state more money than it raises
  2) Most people don't care because they see this as fair
  3) Schools are using VAT to cover all number of things
  
  I can understand the frustration of parents affected - it is unfair. Then again there are so many things which are egregiously unfair and this isn't anywhere near the top of the unfairness chart. Carers losing their entire allowance for going £1 over the earnings cap? More unfair. And there's stacks of examples of things done by merciless ministers to make the lives of the poor and sick practically unliveable which are more unfair.
  
  This explains point 2 above.

  Process State meets populist policy.

  Sure! But for many of the people in point 2, they here the people complaining and consider that they largely are the people who support all of the egregious merciless stuff which hurts people at an existential level.

  Sam Freedman (yes I know) was good on that in his piece on the anti-VAT campaign;
  
  https://samf.substack.com/p/the-great-vat-panic
  
  The TLDR is that campaigns against government policy work best when you have a back channel negotiation to come up with a mutually-acceptable deal. The Independent Schools Council went straight for berating the policy in the press, and only that, which was never going to work.
  
  Yes, VAT on school fees is another version of "Do it to Julia"; accept that there needs to be pain to balance the books, but that pain should be experienced by other people. A lot of the anger was because people used to getting their way didn't.
  
  (And whilst there will be some blowback from this policy, it will need a massive exodus to be a net negative for the government. There is no sign of that right now. In large part because British private schools are mostly fishing in the global elite market, which isn't very price-sensitive. Hard on those who have gone from just about affording school fees to not affording them, but they're a minority of a minority.)

  Is that true? Would like to see some figures to back that up. My gut is that it’s true for the Public Schools and the London private schools but the vast majority of private schools aren’t them, they are private schools in towns and cities with good local reputations attracting the children of local professionals or they are the only alternative to failing state schools in an area where people decide to make a financial sacrifice to pay for their childrens’ education.
  
  These are the schools that will suffer - the public schools with international or national reputation and big endowments alongside the London private day schools with a big global wealthy community to fill places who would never dream of sending their children off to board will largely be fine.

  https://www.pepf.co.uk/fact-finder/facts-and-figures/ says
  
  Excluding international schools, about 5% of private school pupils are non-British with parents living abroad. The largest group are from China (both mainland and Hong Kong).
  
  Another 5% are non-British but with parents who live in Britain.

  Yes but those 5% are in certain years and certain schools. Few at prep schools but many at 6th form, particularly in traditional boarding schools.
  
  Sending a child at 16 abroad is very different to at age 6. So St Custards prep is very different to Eton or Uppingham.

  1
• Sandpit Posts: 56,343

  August 13 edited August 13

  Who is running SirKeir’s Twitter account over the summer? It’s just pointless inanity after pointless inanity.
  
  https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1955526701813018743
  
  No one should feel unsafe leaving their homes.
  
  From today, every neighbourhood across England and Wales has named, contactable officers to tackle crime in our communities.
  
  Our Plan for Change in action

  0
• numbertwelve Posts: 7,767

  August 13

  Sandpit said:

  Who is running SirKeir’s Twitter account over the summer? It’s just pointless inanity after pointless inanity.
  
  https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1955526701813018743
  
  No one should feel unsafe leaving their homes.
  
  From today, every neighbourhood across England and Wales has named, contactable officers to tackle crime in our communities.
  
  Our Plan for Change in action

  ChatGPT.

  1
• Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,671

  August 13

  MarqueeMark said:

  Trump downgrades his discussion with Putin as "fact finding".
  
  How long before he discovers the fact that Putin is a land-grabbing c*** who uses terror as his one and only tactic, destroying homes, hospitals, schools to get his way? And discovers that hundreds, thousands of innocent Ukrainians have died whilst Trump keeps cutting Vlad some more weeks and months of slack?

  You say that like Trump would consider being a land-grabbing c*** who uses terror as his one and only tactic, destroying homes, hospitals, schools to get his way is a bad thing.

  2
• bondegezou Posts: 15,638

  August 13

  Sandpit said:

  Who is running SirKeir’s Twitter account over the summer? It’s just pointless inanity after pointless inanity.
  
  https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1955526701813018743
  
  No one should feel unsafe leaving their homes.
  
  From today, every neighbourhood across England and Wales has named, contactable officers to tackle crime in our communities.
  
  Our Plan for Change in action

  You would prefer Donald Trump? Here's his latest Truth Social post:
  
  GREAT Nominees for the TRUMP/KENNEDY CENTER, whoops, I mean, KENNEDY CENTER, AWARDS. They will be announced Wednesday. Tremendous work is being done, and money being spent, on bringing it back to the absolute TOP LEVEL of luxury, glamour, and entertainment. It had fallen on hard times, physically, BUT WILL SOON BE MAKING A MAJOR COMEBACK!!! President DJT

  1
• HYUFD Posts: 129,537

  August 13

  boulay said:

  …

  bondegezou said:

  boulay said:

  Stuartinromford said:

  RochdalePioneers said:

  Malmesbury said:

  RochdalePioneers said:

  VAT on schools:
  1) It will cost the state more money than it raises
  2) Most people don't care because they see this as fair
  3) Schools are using VAT to cover all number of things
  
  I can understand the frustration of parents affected - it is unfair. Then again there are so many things which are egregiously unfair and this isn't anywhere near the top of the unfairness chart. Carers losing their entire allowance for going £1 over the earnings cap? More unfair. And there's stacks of examples of things done by merciless ministers to make the lives of the poor and sick practically unliveable which are more unfair.
  
  This explains point 2 above.

  Process State meets populist policy.

  Sure! But for many of the people in point 2, they here the people complaining and consider that they largely are the people who support all of the egregious merciless stuff which hurts people at an existential level.

  Sam Freedman (yes I know) was good on that in his piece on the anti-VAT campaign;
  
  https://samf.substack.com/p/the-great-vat-panic
  
  The TLDR is that campaigns against government policy work best when you have a back channel negotiation to come up with a mutually-acceptable deal. The Independent Schools Council went straight for berating the policy in the press, and only that, which was never going to work.
  
  Yes, VAT on school fees is another version of "Do it to Julia"; accept that there needs to be pain to balance the books, but that pain should be experienced by other people. A lot of the anger was because people used to getting their way didn't.
  
  (And whilst there will be some blowback from this policy, it will need a massive exodus to be a net negative for the government. There is no sign of that right now. In large part because British private schools are mostly fishing in the global elite market, which isn't very price-sensitive. Hard on those who have gone from just about affording school fees to not affording them, but they're a minority of a minority.)

  Is that true? Would like to see some figures to back that up. My gut is that it’s true for the Public Schools and the London private schools but the vast majority of private schools aren’t them, they are private schools in towns and cities with good local reputations attracting the children of local professionals or they are the only alternative to failing state schools in an area where people decide to make a financial sacrifice to pay for their childrens’ education.
  
  These are the schools that will suffer - the public schools with international or national reputation and big endowments alongside the London private day schools with a big global wealthy community to fill places who would never dream of sending their children off to board will largely be fine.

  https://www.pepf.co.uk/fact-finder/facts-and-figures/ says
  
  Excluding international schools, about 5% of private school pupils are non-British with parents living abroad. The largest group are from China (both mainland and Hong Kong).
  
  Another 5% are non-British but with parents who live in Britain.

  So British private schools really are not fishing in the global elite market and so are sensitive to price moves and not damaging a minority of a minority.

  They are to a significant extent, especially the most expensive boarding schools and many also now have branches in Asia too

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