If Kemi Badenoch is removed as Tory leader, Boris Johnson is the clear favourite of 2024 Tory voters to succeed her.
Even now Boris is on 17% with 2024 Conservative voters as to who would be best placed to lead their party, just ahead of Kemi on 16%, Sunak on 10% and Jenrick and Cleverly each on 8% and Tugendhat on 5% and Hunt on 4%.
All voters also prefer Boris on 9% to 7% for Kemi and 5% for Jenrick and 4% each for Cleverly and Sunak.
2024 Reform voters though prefer Jenrick, 19% of voters for Farage's party think Jenrick would be the best Conservative leader compared to 14% for Johnson and just 6% for Badenoch and a mere 3% each for Cleverly or Sunak, Stride or Tugendhat and just 1% for Hunt
Interesting little video from a journo trying to be outraged about cyclists, pedestrians and red lights - on a crossing in Blackfriars. He's called Rags Martel.
Fascinating commentary vs video. They were there for rush hour (strange - only 283 cyclists), and spotted 2/3 of people on cycles disobeying the red light (horror!), yet I can't see that they found a single near miss.
A good argument for those lights to be part time, or possibly removed. Or to have a separate pedestrian request button for the cycle track to stop.
That's London moving towards the Dutch view - that when they are familiar, walking/wheeling and cycling mix far more easily than either with motors. Perhaps we will have simultaneous greens on road junctions before long as one phase?
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
Most of those 27 Tory seats will probably be in the Harrow/Ruislip/Hertsmere/Beaconsfield/Runnymede general area I assume.
These are the 27 Tory seats
North Somerset Earley and Woodley Tatton Croydon South Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Chester South and Eddisbury Leicester East Epping Forest Windsor Runnymede and Weybridge Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner East Grinstead and Uckfield Rutland and Stamford Arundel and South Downs Richmond and Northallerton Hendon Chelsea and Fulham Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Keighley and Ilkley Stockton West Wetherby and Easingwold Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Chingford and Woodford Green Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Hertsmere Harrow East
Nice to see Epping on the list. My decent MP, Neil Hudson, got ousted on a boundary change in favour of an idiot so was forced to go carpet bagging, and ended up in Epping. His old seat - Penrith - went crashing to Labour in 2024 to nepo baby Campbell-Savours and next time will crash further to Reform. Karma.
Yes Neil is a good MP having succeeded Dame Eleanor and will benefit from the high Asian and Jewish vote in Epping Forest constituency, which while having the more Reform Waltham Abbey does not have the Reform heavy Ongar and North Weald parts of EFDC which are instead in Brentwood and Ongar.
Leon is falling for the fallacy of thinking everyone wants a taxi and prefers a taxi.
If people only wanted cars as glorified taxis there wouldn't be so many to choose from.
There may be a few people happy to dump their own vehicle for taxis but the idea everyone will is silly.
I'd say at least two-thirds of the people I know hate owning a car. They hate paying for it, the hate driving it on congested roads full of lunatics, they hate the stress when it breaks down and needs repaired, they hate trying to park at busy times. And if you're young there's the nightmare of trying to get a driving licence.
They don't want a own a car, they just need a way of getting around that doesn't involve trains or buses.
When driverless cars are common owning your own car will be like owning a Ferrari or McLaren now; it makes no practical sense and is financially idiotic, but a few people will still do it. Everyone else will just have an InstaCar subscription, when you need to go somewhere just request a car and it appears at your door in a few minutes.
Another advantage will be the range of vehicles. Need a van to shift stuff, or a wheelchair adapted car, or a car with child seats? Just order it and it'll come.
This future isn't imminent, but I'm in my early 50s and I fully expect this to be reality well within my lifetime.
It's all right for those of us.... those of you ...... who live in large towns or cities, Out here we've one bus heading East every 30 minutes and one heading West. That's it. And they're not 100% reliable. Our choice is our own car or some other means of personal transport. Yes we can get a taxi; there are about four local taxis, each owner-drivers, and they get booked for some runs, but they're quite expensive.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
If Kemi Badenoch is removed as Tory leader, Boris Johnson is the clear favourite of 2024 Tory voters to succeed her.
Even now Boris is on 17% with 2024 Conservative voters as to who would be best placed to lead their party, just ahead of Kemi on 16%, Sunak on 10% and Jenrick and Cleverly each on 8% and Tugendhat on 5% and Hunt on 4%.
All voters also prefer Boris on 9% to 7% for Kemi and 5% for Jenrick and 4% each for Cleverly and Sunak.
2024 Reform voters though prefer Jenrick, 19% of voters for Farage's party think Jenrick would be the best Conservative leader compared to 14% for Johnson and just 6% for Badenoch and a mere 3% each for Cleverly or Sunak, Stride or Tugendhat and just 1% for Hunt
Andrew Neil @afneil The average five-year fixed mortgage was 5.53% in July last year when Labour came to power. Last month it was 5.24% — hardly a life-changing difference despite four interest rate cuts by last month (so the government is not exactly flooding people’s pockets with money). The Bank’s benchmark rate is far from the only determinant of mortgage rates. Not clear the Chancellor understands this.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
On the most anecdotal of levels, this poll reflects what seems to be happening amongst my (admittedly small) circle of family and friends.
The Conservative polling figure is like the waterline on large old Victorian enamelled bath, with the plug pulled out. There is a fair bit of water still in it but its draining steadily away by the minute and the taps are corroded shut.
I honestly now believe my constituency (Con for 50 years with a Lab majority of only 600) will go Reform.
The simplest explanation (and consistent with Occam's razor) for Labour and Tory performance since July 2024 is that both parties have decided to let Reform win the next election.
SDP 51%. They are planning for the fight in three or four years time. There is absolutely zero point having a great run of opinion polls now. Spend the time getting doorstep feedback, planning a campaign and working out your firewall and areas to work hardest based on council performance. Reform won't be floating on clouds forever
The risk for them is that Reform get a boost, at each round of local elections that drives their support a bit higher, and makes the Conservatives look like a wasted vote.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
On the most anecdotal of levels, this poll reflects what seems to be happening amongst my (admittedly small) circle of family and friends.
The Conservative polling figure is like the waterline on large old Victorian enamelled bath, with the plug pulled out. There is a fair bit of water still in it but its draining steadily away by the minute and the taps are corroded shut.
I honestly now believe my constituency (Con for 50 years with a Lab majority of only 600) will go Reform.
The simplest explanation (and consistent with Occam's razor) for Labour and Tory performance since July 2024 is that both parties have decided to let Reform win the next election.
SDP 51%. They are planning for the fight in three or four years time. There is absolutely zero point having a great run of opinion polls now. Spend the time getting doorstep feedback, planning a campaign and working out your firewall and areas to work hardest based on council performance. Reform won't be floating on clouds forever
Maybe. I think if Labour wanted to win in 2029 they would have spent the last year governing and, especially, communicating the governing plan well to the public.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
On the most anecdotal of levels, this poll reflects what seems to be happening amongst my (admittedly small) circle of family and friends.
The Conservative polling figure is like the waterline on large old Victorian enamelled bath, with the plug pulled out. There is a fair bit of water still in it but its draining steadily away by the minute and the taps are corroded shut.
I honestly now believe my constituency (Con for 50 years with a Lab majority of only 600) will go Reform.
The simplest explanation (and consistent with Occam's razor) for Labour and Tory performance since July 2024 is that both parties have decided to let Reform win the next election.
SDP 51%. They are planning for the fight in three or four years time. There is absolutely zero point having a great run of opinion polls now. Spend the time getting doorstep feedback, planning a campaign and working out your firewall and areas to work hardest based on council performance. Reform won't be floating on clouds forever
The risk for them is that Reform get a boost, at each round of local elections that drives their support a bit higher, and makes the Conservatives look like a wasted vote.
Its probably a little premature to have a market on who the last Conservative MP is going to be but it is no longer inconceivable.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
On the most anecdotal of levels, this poll reflects what seems to be happening amongst my (admittedly small) circle of family and friends.
The Conservative polling figure is like the waterline on large old Victorian enamelled bath, with the plug pulled out. There is a fair bit of water still in it but its draining steadily away by the minute and the taps are corroded shut.
I honestly now believe my constituency (Con for 50 years with a Lab majority of only 600) will go Reform.
The simplest explanation (and consistent with Occam's razor) for Labour and Tory performance since July 2024 is that both parties have decided to let Reform win the next election.
SDP 51%. They are planning for the fight in three or four years time. There is absolutely zero point having a great run of opinion polls now. Spend the time getting doorstep feedback, planning a campaign and working out your firewall and areas to work hardest based on council performance. Reform won't be floating on clouds forever
The risk for them is that Reform get a boost, at each round of local elections that drives their support a bit higher, and makes the Conservatives look like a wasted vote.
Reform have not done very well in defending the seats where councillors have had, for whatever reason, to step down.
Reminds me of the Green 'surge' back ing the mid 80's.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
The ten LD gains would be as follows: All gains from the Tories except Sheffield Hallam.
Godalming and Ash Farnham and Bordon East Hampshire North Dorset Romsey and Southampton North North Cotswolds Salisbury Mid Buckinghamshire Beaconsfield Sheffield Hallam
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
The LibDems are lucky in 2029: outside a couple in the South West, in very few of their seats are they directly up against Reform.
Now that will change in 2034, but next time around, they should benefit from a split Right, and a lot of Left wing voters looking for a new home. I'd reckon they will lose 5-10 to Reform, but gain 10-15 from the Conservatives, for a small net gain.
Isn’t it slightly ludicrous that a second ballot of BofE bods was required to cut interest rates today, when the first ballot had four voting to remain at 4.25%, four saying cut to 4% and one wanting to cut to 3.75%? Seems it would have been easier, and not controversial, to have cut to 4% after the first ballot
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
Isn’t it slightly ludicrous that a second ballot of BofE bods was required to cut interest rates today, when the first ballot had four voting to remain at 4.25%, four saying cut to 4% and one wanting to cut to 3.75%? Seems it would have been easier, and not controversial, to have cut to 4% after the first ballot
Isn’t it slightly ludicrous that a second ballot of BofE bods was required to cut interest rates today, when the first ballot had four voting to remain at 4.25%, four saying cut to 4% and one wanting to cut to 3.75%? Seems it would have been easier, and not controversial, to have cut to 4% after the first ballot
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
The ten LD gains would be as follows: All gains from the Tories except Sheffield Hallam.
Godalming and Ash Farnham and Bordon East Hampshire North Dorset Romsey and Southampton North North Cotswolds Salisbury Mid Buckinghamshire Beaconsfield Sheffield Hallam
Romsey and Southampton North should surely be marked as LibDem hold in that eventuality.
Isn’t it slightly ludicrous that a second ballot of BofE bods was required to cut interest rates today, when the first ballot had four voting to remain at 4.25%, four saying cut to 4% and one wanting to cut to 3.75%? Seems it would have been easier, and not controversial, to have cut to 4% after the first ballot
Given the decision was to cut interest rates at a time of rising inflation that was by no means the most ludicrous thing about it. Pretending that the Bank is genuinely independent is becoming harder than believing in Santa Claus.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
I don't think the LDs are likely to be up on their 2024 share
If Kemi Badenoch is removed as Tory leader, Boris Johnson is the clear favourite of 2024 Tory voters to succeed her.
Even now Boris is on 17% with 2024 Conservative voters as to who would be best placed to lead their party, just ahead of Kemi on 16%, Sunak on 10% and Jenrick and Cleverly each on 8% and Tugendhat on 5% and Hunt on 4%.
All voters also prefer Boris on 9% to 7% for Kemi and 5% for Jenrick and 4% each for Cleverly and Sunak.
2024 Reform voters though prefer Jenrick, 19% of voters for Farage's party think Jenrick would be the best Conservative leader compared to 14% for Johnson and just 6% for Badenoch and a mere 3% each for Cleverly or Sunak, Stride or Tugendhat and just 1% for Hunt
How can someone who isn’t an MP be best placed to be a party leader?
Indeed: and which seat would Boris win against Reform in the event of a byelection now?
Given the personal vote Boris would get on that poll, probably every current Tory seat and some the Tories lost last year too
Good afternoon
Your loyalty to Johnson masks the fact he is yesterday's news
The question for polling is not about how a disgraced former conservative leader would do, but how long does Reform continue to be flavour of the month and could labour fall below the conservatives with Magic Grandpa and Sultana getting their act together
Man United have signed Sesko and with Mbeumo and Cunha the front three, how many goals will they produce
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
The ten LD gains would be as follows: All gains from the Tories except Sheffield Hallam.
Godalming and Ash Farnham and Bordon East Hampshire North Dorset Romsey and Southampton North North Cotswolds Salisbury Mid Buckinghamshire Beaconsfield Sheffield Hallam
Romsey and Southampton North should surely be marked as LibDem hold in that eventuality.
Others 7% (including 12% 18 to 29 y.o. and 10% in the London subsample)
Changes from 30th July [Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]
No sign that Reform has peaked. Slow decline of Lab and Con. I have a detailed model by constituency. It currently shows the Tories with just one seat. Harrow East. Lab with 276 seats and Reform with 244. LD with 87.
Sorry. Found a major bug! Swapped the Labour and Tory previous share around! Should be: Lab 137 Con 27 LD 85 Ref 335 Green 9 SNP 35 PC 4 NI 18
I remain a Lib Dem sceptic for 2029. Time will tell. I think Holyrood and the Senedd will be illuminating for the big two ability tk actually turn out voters under extreme pressure and give a bit more of a steer on what 2029 may hold
My guess is that the LDs will hold up in their traditional parts but not elsewhere. In almost every English seat they hold it's a LD v Tory fight. The voters' determination to scatter the Tories to the four winds does not extend to the LDs, nor in LD parts does it extend to a huge love for Reform.
They'll hold a fair few i think but the desire to get the Tories out no longer exists as they are out and I suspect the Tory focus will be blue wall based as they will be totally irrelevant in most of the red wall. As such the general total inefficiency of their vote in 2024 will reverse a little and they'll become a bit more efficient but a lot more patchy and regional. I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Personally, I don't think the Conservatives will be gaining many seats from the LDs, given the LDs are likely to be up a couple of points on their 2024 share, while the Conservatives will have dropped. And it's not like Reform will be egging them on; they'll both be fighting for right of centre votes.
I don't think the LDs are likely to be up on their 2024 share
Why do you think that? Genuine question.
LDs in current polls are averaging just under 14% compared with 12.6% at the last election.
“Sometimes the value of a 'human touch' is negative. People willing to pay 50% more for Waymo than Lyft, despite longer waiting times.”
People will pay more not to be driven by humans. Why? The cars are a bit nicer, the robot won’t rape you, there’s no chance of a racist rant, the drive will be safe and predictable
This here is the doom of the cab driver. It is also a tolling bell for human interaction
And, if you enjoy a racist rant, I suspect that AI can provide that, too.
It makes total sense if you think about it. A driverless cab drive is a private experience. You can scratch your crotch, have a wank, surf porn, argue about migrants with your stupid woke wife, no one will see or know or care. Who prefers a human driver? Plus the whole safety thing
Humans driving other humans is a concept on its way out. I wonder if humans even talking to other humans will soon feel dated
THE TRIUMPH OF THE SHY
I sense an email to the Gazette editor is in the offing
The real boon of driverless cars is that it lets normal people experience what’s now only available to the very wealthy, their own personal car and ‘driver’.
If my car can drive itself, then it drops me at work in the morning as I read the paper and check emails, goes back and picks up the kids to take them to school, picks up my wife and takes her to her Pilates class then to her coffee morning, picks the kids up from school, picks me up from work and takes me to the pub. Best of all, it then picks me up from the pub at midnight and takes me home.
Yes. It’s basically a chauffeur without all the hassle and expense
As I’ve been saying here for years, to much scorn, driverless cars are the future. The private car will slowly die
Sorry BartholomewRoberts
I was right again
Parents with young children may be the last to give up their own cars.
Unless "call me a driverless taxi with car seats fitted for a newborn, two year old and five year old in rural Kent" becomes part of the offering.
The effort of carrying your own seats and fitting them in a car would far outweigh any benefit of not driving unless you're driving to Scotland.
There's also the problem of parking (much of current space is on private land).
I suspect you end up with a hybrid of private and communal cars. But with almost all driverless in any case.
But we won't be there for another decade or two.
I think we'll move from self driven private cars to autonomous private cars. I don't see very much demand for communal use cars and ondemand hailing, it may work in big cities and maybe even smaller ones but out in the countryside people will own their autonomous vehicle just as they own their car today. Even in the city there will be people who will want to own their vehicle rather than share it with strangers.
Indeed.
@Leon is making the mistake of thinking that he's come up with some novel idea of calling for a vehicle and that's that. That already exists, its called a taxi, and people don't want that for a reason.
The reason people want their own vehicle rather than taxis goes far beyond the fact the taxi needs a driver.
We're already transitioning to semi autonomous private vehicles. That transition will continue towards potentially fully autonomous private vehicles but the idea everyone will dump their own cars for a taxi is fallacious.
Not if it's cheaper. The cost of the taxi is primarily the driver, and for almost everyone the benefits do not outway that cost.
The costs of robot taxis won't just be cheaper than current taxis - but driving a private vehicle altogether. Reduced maintenance costs, capital costs are shared, parking costs, insurance and so on.
Car clubs are already financially viable for a very large chunk of the population, if you consider annual mileage is only about 8,000 miles. And you still have to drive the damn thing!
We could see leased autonomous cars, indeed that's quite likely
Instead of buying a car outright, you will lease a car for six months, or two years, or whatever. For that period it is yours and yours alone, but the upkeep and maintenance will be done by others, as part of the fee. Again I don't see many people parking them as they do now. The downsides - depreciation, cost, ugliness, driveways, stupid garages, chance of theft or damage - are so much greater than the upsides
This is going to be great for European cities which were never designed for the car. They can go back to their true and beautiful selves
Fuck knows what American cities will do. All those hideous car lots and urban freeways rendered largely pointless
That's what people do now with ordinary cars, very few people actually buy a car outright for cash, most will be using some kind of lease or PCP style arrangement. I "bought" my Audi that way.
“Sometimes the value of a 'human touch' is negative. People willing to pay 50% more for Waymo than Lyft, despite longer waiting times.”
People will pay more not to be driven by humans. Why? The cars are a bit nicer, the robot won’t rape you, there’s no chance of a racist rant, the drive will be safe and predictable
This here is the doom of the cab driver. It is also a tolling bell for human interaction
And, if you enjoy a racist rant, I suspect that AI can provide that, too.
Isn't that all part of the Cabbie service?
Might be in your part of the world. Not up here. Most of my cabbies are not white but from overseas. Last chap was an Eritrean. We chatted about the Eritrean church in Gateshead.
Oh, they can still do racism.
I once had a racist cab driver who was so racist he ran out of obvious people to be racist about within about 15 minutes of ranting. So then he started ranting about BELGIANS
Then he briskly exhausted that theme (how many times can you swear about that surrealist c*nt Rene Magritte) so he moved onto PEOPLE WHO TAKE TRAINS
In Greater Manchester, 99% of taxi drivers are Muslim, often with relatively little English. No racism from them. Very little conversation at all. I'd still prefer an automatic car though, if only to avoid the awkwardness about tipping. There is quite a British discomfort about Employing A Man To Do A Thing. I suffer it quite acutely.
I had a full Al-Qaeda rant from one once, and he got so animated he ran a red light.
I told him I disagreed, and went quiet. Then he said he wouldn't charge when we arrived.
I paid him (didn't tip him) because of the ride but told him it was unacceptable and he should never do it again.
Driverless taxis and non-driverless taxis will live alongside each other for a very long time.
Demand for transport is not evenly spread out over the day. Some people's labour is worth a lot of money, some is worth very little. And some places have lots of people in them, and others do not.
If you work at a factory in rural Iowa, and all 300 of you end your shift at the same time, then there's not going to be 300 Waymo's all ready in that rural location for you. Your time is cheap. That'll be peak demand for Waymos. And they'd have to drive a long way to get to you.
The business model doesn't work.
But in cities, Waymo (and other driverless taxi services) will dominate, albeit still supplanted by people renting out their own vehicles. (Why? Baseload vs peaking. Baseload is Waymo. Peaking is people renting out their own vehicles. It's not worth Waymo having a vehicle with 1% utilisation.)
I’m not sure I want someone who’s labour is worth very little driving me around!
Andrew Neil @afneil The average five-year fixed mortgage was 5.53% in July last year when Labour came to power. Last month it was 5.24% — hardly a life-changing difference despite four interest rate cuts by last month (so the government is not exactly flooding people’s pockets with money). The Bank’s benchmark rate is far from the only determinant of mortgage rates. Not clear the Chancellor understands this.
Saving rates have definitely fallen!
I’ve switched into holding gilts rather than paying down my (interest only) mortgage.
After fees I am getting around 3.8% tax free (compared to 3.65% gross on a savings account or 1.49% from paying off my mortgage).
Sure, numbers are going up because people who live in the very restricted areas these cars operate are getting more comfortable using them. But they are not a replacement for manned cabs or private vehicles and won't be until you can get into one and have it take you anywhere.
The day I can step off a train in Glasgow and have a driverless cab take me to my home in the rural wilds is the day they've won. That's still many years away, I believe.
They’ve already “won”. The concept is established and we know it can be done and it turns out these cars are hugely popular - people will wait longer and pay more for a driverless car. That’s how popular they are
So then it’s just a question of how long before this victory is ubiquitous
You present a hard case. A rural drive in Scotland. These will presumably be the last to go
However looking at Genie 3 suggests advances will now come much quicker
I reckon we are now in the final decade of the human driven car. By 2035 they will almost all be gone - but a few will remain for fun and status, the way some people still keep horses or steam engines
Christ knows what 80 million cab drivers will do for a living
" By 2035 they will almost all be gone "
I hesitate to remind you that wall over a decade ago, you 'predicted' that there would be no lorry drivers in the UK within a decade.
As I've often admitted on here, I get over-excited. This is because 1. I can extrapolate better than god but 2. I have a tendency to favour the wild, dramatic and explosive, as I hate being bored
This means I am usually right, directionally, but my timelines are often stupidly optimistic. A good rule of thumb is to double any predicted timeline I suggest. A bit like the great Elon Musk. And yes, an example is FSD lorries
HoweverI might remind you that you used to claim machines would never replace humans in translation even as I scoffed at you. And now?
“Sometimes the value of a 'human touch' is negative. People willing to pay 50% more for Waymo than Lyft, despite longer waiting times.”
People will pay more not to be driven by humans. Why? The cars are a bit nicer, the robot won’t rape you, there’s no chance of a racist rant, the drive will be safe and predictable
This here is the doom of the cab driver. It is also a tolling bell for human interaction
And, if you enjoy a racist rant, I suspect that AI can provide that, too.
It makes total sense if you think about it. A driverless cab drive is a private experience. You can scratch your crotch, have a wank, surf porn, argue about migrants with your stupid woke wife, no one will see or know or care. Who prefers a human driver? Plus the whole safety thing
Humans driving other humans is a concept on its way out. I wonder if humans even talking to other humans will soon feel dated
THE TRIUMPH OF THE SHY
I sense an email to the Gazette editor is in the offing
The real boon of driverless cars is that it lets normal people experience what’s now only available to the very wealthy, their own personal car and ‘driver’.
If my car can drive itself, then it drops me at work in the morning as I read the paper and check emails, goes back and picks up the kids to take them to school, picks up my wife and takes her to her Pilates class then to her coffee morning, picks the kids up from school, picks me up from work and takes me to the pub. Best of all, it then picks me up from the pub at midnight and takes me home.
Yes. It’s basically a chauffeur without all the hassle and expense
As I’ve been saying here for years, to much scorn, driverless cars are the future. The private car will slowly die
Sorry BartholomewRoberts
I was right again
Parents with young children may be the last to give up their own cars.
Unless "call me a driverless taxi with car seats fitted for a newborn, two year old and five year old in rural Kent" becomes part of the offering.
The effort of carrying your own seats and fitting them in a car would far outweigh any benefit of not driving unless you're driving to Scotland.
There's also the problem of parking (much of current space is on private land).
I suspect you end up with a hybrid of private and communal cars. But with almost all driverless in any case.
But we won't be there for another decade or two.
I think we'll move from self driven private cars to autonomous private cars. I don't see very much demand for communal use cars and ondemand hailing, it may work in big cities and maybe even smaller ones but out in the countryside people will own their autonomous vehicle just as they own their car today. Even in the city there will be people who will want to own their vehicle rather than share it with strangers.
Indeed.
@Leon is making the mistake of thinking that he's come up with some novel idea of calling for a vehicle and that's that. That already exists, its called a taxi, and people don't want that for a reason.
The reason people want their own vehicle rather than taxis goes far beyond the fact the taxi needs a driver.
We're already transitioning to semi autonomous private vehicles. That transition will continue towards potentially fully autonomous private vehicles but the idea everyone will dump their own cars for a taxi is fallacious.
Not if it's cheaper. The cost of the taxi is primarily the driver, and for almost everyone the benefits do not outway that cost.
The costs of robot taxis won't just be cheaper than current taxis - but driving a private vehicle altogether. Reduced maintenance costs, capital costs are shared, parking costs, insurance and so on.
Car clubs are already financially viable for a very large chunk of the population, if you consider annual mileage is only about 8,000 miles. And you still have to drive the damn thing!
We could see leased autonomous cars, indeed that's quite likely
Instead of buying a car outright, you will lease a car for six months, or two years, or whatever. For that period it is yours and yours alone, but the upkeep and maintenance will be done by others, as part of the fee. Again I don't see many people parking them as they do now. The downsides - depreciation, cost, ugliness, driveways, stupid garages, chance of theft or damage - are so much greater than the upsides
This is going to be great for European cities which were never designed for the car. They can go back to their true and beautiful selves
Fuck knows what American cities will do. All those hideous car lots and urban freeways rendered largely pointless
That's what people do now with ordinary cars, very few people actually buy a car outright for cash, most will be using some kind of lease or PCP style arrangement. I "bought" my Audi that way.
But you won't park it on the drive, in the garage or on the road outside your house. When you want to go somewhere, it will come round and pick you up
Comments
Fascinating commentary vs video. They were there for rush hour (strange - only 283 cyclists), and spotted 2/3 of people on cycles disobeying the red light (horror!), yet I can't see that they found a single near miss.
A good argument for those lights to be part time, or possibly removed. Or to have a separate pedestrian request button for the cycle track to stop.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftMdFQlA2QQ&t=46s
That's London moving towards the Dutch view - that when they are familiar, walking/wheeling and cycling mix far more easily than either with motors. Perhaps we will have simultaneous greens on road junctions before long as one phase?
Neil's brother is an ex LD PPC so they are a divided family politically
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/1720
Our choice is our own car or some other means of personal transport. Yes we can get a taxi; there are about four local taxis, each owner-drivers, and they get booked for some runs, but they're quite expensive.
Andrew Neil
@afneil
The average five-year fixed mortgage was 5.53% in July last year when Labour came to power.
Last month it was 5.24% — hardly a life-changing difference despite four interest rate cuts by last month (so the government is not exactly flooding people’s pockets with money).
The Bank’s benchmark rate is far from the only determinant of mortgage rates. Not clear the Chancellor understands this.
Saving rates have definitely fallen!
I expect the LDs to be behind the Tories on seats but not too far. 50 LDs, 80 to 100 Tories (current expectation)
Reminds me of the Green 'surge' back ing the mid 80's.
All gains from the Tories except Sheffield Hallam.
Godalming and Ash
Farnham and Bordon
East Hampshire
North Dorset
Romsey and Southampton North
North Cotswolds
Salisbury
Mid Buckinghamshire
Beaconsfield
Sheffield Hallam
Now that will change in 2034, but next time around, they should benefit from a split Right, and a lot of Left wing voters looking for a new home. I'd reckon they will lose 5-10 to Reform, but gain 10-15 from the Conservatives, for a small net gain.
NEW THREAD
Your loyalty to Johnson masks the fact he is yesterday's news
The question for polling is not about how a disgraced former conservative leader would do, but how long does Reform continue to be flavour of the month and could labour fall below the conservatives with Magic Grandpa and Sultana getting their act together
Man United have signed Sesko and with Mbeumo and Cunha the front three, how many goals will they produce
Newcastle must be very downhearted today
LDs in current polls are averaging just under 14% compared with 12.6% at the last election.
I told him I disagreed, and went quiet. Then he said he wouldn't charge when we arrived.
I paid him (didn't tip him) because of the ride but told him it was unacceptable and he should never do it again.
After fees I am getting around 3.8% tax free (compared to 3.65% gross on a savings account or 1.49% from paying off my mortgage).