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A second referendum, is this how Starmer wins a second term? – politicalbetting.com

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  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Attended the online hustings for the leadership of the Greens last Thursday.

    Backed Zack this morning along with fellow candidates down the ticket.

    It's clear he is loathed by some establishment Greens but as their only ideas are continuation neo liberalism they are best ignored.

    Should Polansky win, an electoral pact with the new Party would imo, see challenges from left and right to the continuation billionaire backers who have been in power for the last 46 years.

    They will enable NF4PM I hear you say.

    No that's SKS and the red and blue Tories I think you will find.

    A challenge from the populist left is the best way to stop the populist right. SKS has seen to that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,901
    Dura_Ace said:

    Anybody who thinks the EU wouldn't give a rejoining UK an opt-out on the Euro (although it wouldn't be called an 'opt-out') knows SFA about Berlaymont and its culture. In the pre-brexit Golden Age, I prepared 20+ students for the European Commission language assessments and I'm still in touch with some of them so I reckon I know a bit about it.

    Everyone also knows that adoption of the Euro can be deferred indefinitely.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,794
    Nigelb said:

    .

    AnneJGP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wow.

    It's a fair idea to raise - it's most odd that in a country which now overwhelmingly rejects Brexit, and at the very least a plurality would support the idea of rejoining, not a single UK party has anything near such a thing as part of their platform.

    The question is, if the 2016 EU referendum was held again today.

    That's a different question.
    No, the poll results include 49% saying yes to the proposal that another referendum "should be held" in the next five years.
    No, the poll doesn't indicate at all what voting intention would be in that referendum- it just polls whether another vote should be held.
    Which is the policy being suggested for Labour's (or anyone else's) manifesto.

    Do I think a referendum will be held in the next five years ? Almost certainly not.
    But it is deeply odd that not one party is advocating for a policy which apparently has the support of nearly half the electorate.

    You can quibble about the particular questions in the poll, but the point stands.
    Wasn't that also the case before and basically the reason Nigel Farage got involved?
    The parallel is not lost on me.
    The odd thing is all the Brexiteers who seem to be trying not to see it.
    Well, if the present situation impels a new person with a fresh approach into politics that could well be a good thing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,188
    One term latest:


    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,444

    One term latest:

    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    I wonder how the demand for concrete breaks down by category? Housebuilding, other building construction, roads/infrastructure etc ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,575
    Roger said:

    Surprise, surprise: the Southport rioters were not all fine, upstanding individuals...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c201e9qq9g6o

    Perhaps if we want to keep people safe, we should keep migrants and deport the rioters.

    There was an article last week which said two out of five of those prosecuted had previously been involved in domestic violence.
    'Legitimate concerns about unrestricted immigration made me punch my missus'
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,188
    Dura_Ace said:

    Anybody who thinks the EU wouldn't give a rejoining UK an opt-out on the Euro (although it wouldn't be called an 'opt-out') knows SFA about Berlaymont and its culture. In the pre-brexit Golden Age, I prepared 20+ students for the European Commission language assessments and I'm still in touch with some of them so I reckon I know a bit about it.

    Rejoin of the UK and the utter humiliation of the leavers would be the final vindication of "The Project" on an emotional and philosophical level. For that prize, they'd give a lot and a Euro opt-out marketed as an assessment period of undefined duration wouldn't even make them blink twice.

    We'll see. I would almost certainly not vote to rejoin if it involved joining the euro.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,005

    The UK could be a success inside the EU.
    The UK could be a success outside the EU.

    If we have failures, it's got exceptionally little to do with the extranational organisations we're members of. It's much more to do with the decisions we make within our own powers.

    And whose who either want to either be in or out of the EU are using that as a 'magic wand' excuse for not looking at the fundamental issues this country needs to sort out for itself.
    Indeed. Which is why those who campaigned for decades to leave the EU, blaming the EU for all our ills, should hang their heads in shame.
    If the EU had continued to be a trade grouping there would not have been any demand to leave it.

    It was the process of EverCloserUnion - itself a 'magic wand' supposed to sort out Europe fundamental problems - which created the movement to leave.

    Though I would agree that the lack of seriousness in many of the Leave politicians after the referendum was reprehensible.

    The UK being able to have its own trade treaties is only of benefit if governments are wiling to do the hard work required to agree them.

    Too many politicians thought that with a wave of a magic wand the UK could become 'Singapore-on-Severn' (or whatever their particular 'vision' was) without understanding what Singapore was, how it could be implemented or whether it would be beneficial for this country in any case.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,533
    edited August 4
    Scott_xP said:

    @floboflo

    Isabel Oakeshott, Richard Tice and Ant Middleton are in Dubai.
    Kirstie Allsop is in Switzerland, Andrew Neil is in France and Tommy is in Tenerife.
    Is it time we closed our borders?

    Morning PB.

    The rootless internatiomal.elite are at their play hideouts, far away from the UK....oh, whoops, that's supposed to be another group of journalists and personalities.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,794
    Fishing said:

    Joining the EU could be achieved through legislation, as Heath did at the outset. It was Harold Wilson who invented the idea of a plebiscite to paper over the cracks in the Labour Party. It is the duty of elected representatives to make decisions in an informed and coherent way, not subcontract them to the rabble.

    In theory it could, but in practice it would be politically unacceptable for Parliament to redo a decision the people took against Parliament's wishes without a referendum.

    Even holding a second referendum would certainly give a huge boost to Reform.

    I don't think there's much chance of a referendum being won once the terms of rejoining are known, which would almost certainly include joining the Euro and Schengen and losing most of the rebate we had. The main reason for the Rejoin lead in the polls is because Leaver propagandists have got what they wanted and have moved on to other issues since 2019, letting the argument go by default,while Remoaners have kept Remoaning,
    Given that we appear to depend on massive borrowing just to run our day-to-day needs, we might qualify as a country in poverty this time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,188

    Donald Trump appoints child sex offender to presidential council: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-inviting-sex-offender-white-house-2107403

    Lawrence Taylor is a former professional football player. He pleaded guilty to charges after having sex with a 16-year old (below the local age of consent), having paid her $300. He has also been found guilty of leaving the scene of an accident twice, of drunk driving, and of failing to report a new address as a registered sex offender. Trump has appointed him to the President's Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition.

    He'll fit right in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,300
    Only 53% for Remain now and less than half for an EUref2 is hardly resounding and would be even lower if the Euro and Schengen were required.

    Starmer also wants to retain a Labour majority and to do that he needs to stop the red wall seats going to Farage and Leave marginal seats going Tory or Reform, which many would if he pushed another referendum and rejoin.

    If Labour lost their majority and needed LD, Green and SNP confidence and supply rejoin and a closer EU relationship would be more likely than if Labour won another majority ironically
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,883
    Battlebus said:

    Nigelb said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Joining the EU could be achieved through legislation, as Heath did at the outset. It was Harold Wilson who invented the idea of a plebiscite to paper over the cracks in the Labour Party. It is the duty of elected representatives to make decisions in an informed and coherent way, not subcontract them to the rabble.

    Indeed, as the example of Switzerland demonstrates clearly.
    That's not working quite so well for them now.

    Confusion and anger in Switzerland - hit by highest tariffs in Europe
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c987l633zdgo
    Seems a bit odd to levy different levels of tariffs on countries within the same bloc. It's a bit like the restrictions of items going into Russia. People find ways if there is a margin in it. Seems performative at best.
    That's to do with Trump's definition of tariff level, surely?

    take the trade deficit for the US in goods with a particular country, divide that by the total goods imports from that country and then divide that number by two

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93gq72n7y1o

    An interesting take on the EU trade deal (taken as a bad deal by many commentators) is that it is to do with locking Trump into supplying Ukraine, and that many of the "huge amount of weapons Europe promised to buy from the USA" are for Ukraine eg Patriot missiles, so the "deal" makes pulling the rug on Ukraine a downside for Trump.

    Is he still tariffing the penguins?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,694
    Taz said:

    Donald Trump appoints child sex offender to presidential council: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-inviting-sex-offender-white-house-2107403

    Lawrence Taylor is a former professional football player. He pleaded guilty to charges after having sex with a 16-year old (below the local age of consent), having paid her $300. He has also been found guilty of leaving the scene of an accident twice, of drunk driving, and of failing to report a new address as a registered sex offender. Trump has appointed him to the President's Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition.

    He also main evented Summerslam for the WWE many years ago in a shockingly poor match against Bam Bam Bigelow. 93 IIRC.
    LT was fucking great. I remember seeing him at a Redskins - Giants game as a callow teenager and we could hear his tackles and non-stop stream of screamed obscenities from the 20th row.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,883

    Scott_xP said:

    @floboflo

    Isabel Oakeshott, Richard Tice and Ant Middleton are in Dubai.
    Kirstie Allsop is in Switzerland, Andrew Neil is in France and Tommy is in Tenerife.
    Is it time we closed our borders?

    Morning PB.

    The rootless internatiomal.elite are at their play hideouts far away from the U.K....oh, whoops, that's supposed to be another group of people.
    What are the odds on Tommy turning up at his "Biggest Effer Free Speech Demo" on September 13?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,400
    edited August 4

    Eabhal said:

    moonshine said:

    Lolz are you lot still banging on about brexit? The real European issue at the next election will be membership of the ECHR.

    The thing that - bizarrely - has seen a very significant uptick in support? And is more popular than re-joining the EU?
    Perhaps it is the OSA which has concentrated people's minds on civil liberties and increased support for the ECHR.
    Trump's deportations more likely. Imagine getting fired off to El Salvador by Farage because you couldn't find your passport in time.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,798
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    moonshine said:

    Lolz are you lot still banging on about brexit? The real European issue at the next election will be membership of the ECHR.

    The thing that - bizarrely - has seen a very significant uptick in support? And is more popular than re-joining the EU?
    Perhaps it is the OSA which has concentrated people's minds on civil liberties and increased support for the ECHR.
    Trump's deportations more likely. Imagine getting fired off to El Salvador by Farage because you couldn't find your passport in time.
    El Salvador, or Siberia?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,400
    MattW said:

    Zahawi down the fashy rabbit hole now. I’m old enough to remember when for about 5 minutes he was future pm material on here.

    https://x.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1952101257365053688?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    My piccie for the day. What is it with the current generation of washed-up former Conservative politicians, that they snuffle up whatever garbage they are fed? Even I hoped they would have started thinking again rationally by now.

    Various people have been putting the fake claim out, such as Cllr Laila Cunningham, who swapped to RefUK last month and posts fiction repeatedly. But believing Isobel Oakeshott?
    The crackdown on JSO was always going to bite the right on the bum. If people blocking off roads can go to jail then you can hardly complain if trying to break into a migrant hotel lands you the same.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,747
    Full house at the Oval today.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,575

    Donald Trump appoints child sex offender to presidential council: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-inviting-sex-offender-white-house-2107403

    Lawrence Taylor is a former professional football player. He pleaded guilty to charges after having sex with a 16-year old (below the local age of consent), having paid her $300. He has also been found guilty of leaving the scene of an accident twice, of drunk driving, and of failing to report a new address as a registered sex offender. Trump has appointed him to the President's Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition.

    He'll fit right in.
    Dunno, a 16 year old is on the verge of respectability. Trump needs more bona fide kiddy fiddlers to Make Paedophillia Great Again
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,400

    One term latest:


    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    Well, Economics 1A would suggest that would be make it much cheaper for the government to pop some medium-density council housing up. I think HS2 was crowding out long-term supply of concrete too?

    (I know there is deeply complex science behind different types of concrete before someone cracks into me).
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,400

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    moonshine said:

    Lolz are you lot still banging on about brexit? The real European issue at the next election will be membership of the ECHR.

    The thing that - bizarrely - has seen a very significant uptick in support? And is more popular than re-joining the EU?
    Perhaps it is the OSA which has concentrated people's minds on civil liberties and increased support for the ECHR.
    Trump's deportations more likely. Imagine getting fired off to El Salvador by Farage because you couldn't find your passport in time.
    El Salvador, or Siberia?
    Leon please advise
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,901
    MattW said:

    Battlebus said:

    Nigelb said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Joining the EU could be achieved through legislation, as Heath did at the outset. It was Harold Wilson who invented the idea of a plebiscite to paper over the cracks in the Labour Party. It is the duty of elected representatives to make decisions in an informed and coherent way, not subcontract them to the rabble.

    Indeed, as the example of Switzerland demonstrates clearly.
    That's not working quite so well for them now.

    Confusion and anger in Switzerland - hit by highest tariffs in Europe
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c987l633zdgo
    Seems a bit odd to levy different levels of tariffs on countries within the same bloc. It's a bit like the restrictions of items going into Russia. People find ways if there is a margin in it. Seems performative at best.
    That's to do with Trump's definition of tariff level, surely?

    take the trade deficit for the US in goods with a particular country, divide that by the total goods imports from that country and then divide that number by two

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93gq72n7y1o

    An interesting take on the EU trade deal (taken as a bad deal by many commentators) is that it is to do with locking Trump into supplying Ukraine, and that many of the "huge amount of weapons Europe promised to buy from the USA" are for Ukraine eg Patriot missiles, so the "deal" makes pulling the rug on Ukraine a downside for Trump.

    Is he still tariffing the penguins?
    The US has a trade surplus with Brazil.
    Which got tariffed hard.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,825
    I suggested exactly this a couple of weeks ago. Indeed I suggested Starmer should totally outfox his opponents and announce a referendum NOW in THIS parliament. In two years time

    It would electrify British politics and transform perceptions of him. Might well be won and millions would flock to his side. Suddenly he’s the brave visionary who took on the right

    He could say “the fiscal crisis is so bad we have to do this” and “it’s the only way to solve migration” blah blah. It would be a genius move. Then resign as a hero having reversed Brexit and let the next daft fucker sort out the actual horrendous mess of Rejoining (coz jt would be a total shitshow - euro Schengen renegotiation etc)

    Waiting to the next election is too late. In reality people will recoil from the prospect of more division, even if in theory they say they want it. Needs to be a fait accompli
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,005
    Dura_Ace said:

    Anybody who thinks the EU wouldn't give a rejoining UK an opt-out on the Euro (although it wouldn't be called an 'opt-out') knows SFA about Berlaymont and its culture. In the pre-brexit Golden Age, I prepared 20+ students for the European Commission language assessments and I'm still in touch with some of them so I reckon I know a bit about it.

    Rejoin of the UK and the utter humiliation of the leavers would be the final vindication of "The Project" on an emotional and philosophical level. For that prize, they'd give a lot and a Euro opt-out marketed as an assessment period of undefined duration wouldn't even make them blink twice.

    Not really.

    Because within two years of re-joining the EU there would be 60% support for leaving again as £25bn money per year to the EU in return for a million more immigrants and no magic wand for the UK's problems.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,825
    Jesus I should be prime minister. This is ridiculous. Why am I not prime minister

    I could do the job better than starmer just by giving it 20 minutes a day in between carving granitic ticklers and knocking out travel articles for the Gazette
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,217
    What is the point of asking people how they would vote today with a choice of Remain or Leave. The options should be Rejoin or Stay Out.

    With Rejoin including the Euro and Schengen, naturally.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,300
    edited August 4

    Nigelb said:

    Wow.

    It's a fair idea to raise - it's most odd that in a country which now overwhelmingly rejects Brexit, and at the very least a plurality would support the idea of rejoining, not a single UK party has anything near such a thing as part of their platform.

    Just look at that Tory split.

    44% Remain

    47% Leave

    Crossover soon.
    Only because about half of those who voted for Boris and the Conservatives in 2019 now back Reform.

    So the only Tory voters left tend
    to be Cameroon Remainers or soft Brexiteers like Sunak was
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,189
    Dura_Ace said:

    Anybody who thinks the EU wouldn't give a rejoining UK an opt-out on the Euro (although it wouldn't be called an 'opt-out') knows SFA about Berlaymont and its culture. In the pre-brexit Golden Age, I prepared 20+ students for the European Commission language assessments and I'm still in touch with some of them so I reckon I know a bit about it.

    Rejoin of the UK and the utter humiliation of the leavers would be the final vindication of "The Project" on an emotional and philosophical level. For that prize, they'd give a lot and a Euro opt-out marketed as an assessment period of undefined duration wouldn't even make them blink twice.

    Some of us (not many, I accept) would want to join the Euro. It would make European travel easier, and give banks and financial services companies one less way in which to screw us.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,575
    Leon said:

    Jesus I should be prime minister. This is ridiculous. Why am I not prime minister

    I could do the job better than starmer just by giving it 20 minutes a day in between carving granitic ticklers and knocking out travel articles for the Gazette

    Who was it who said 'I think I'd be rather good at it'?
    Augurs well.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,300

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anybody who thinks the EU wouldn't give a rejoining UK an opt-out on the Euro (although it wouldn't be called an 'opt-out') knows SFA about Berlaymont and its culture. In the pre-brexit Golden Age, I prepared 20+ students for the European Commission language assessments and I'm still in touch with some of them so I reckon I know a bit about it.

    Rejoin of the UK and the utter humiliation of the leavers would be the final vindication of "The Project" on an emotional and philosophical level. For that prize, they'd give a lot and a Euro opt-out marketed as an assessment period of undefined duration wouldn't even make them blink twice.

    Some of us (not many, I accept) would want to join the Euro. It would make European travel easier, and give banks and financial services companies one less way in which to screw us.
    While handing control of interest rates to Frankfurt
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,575

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anybody who thinks the EU wouldn't give a rejoining UK an opt-out on the Euro (although it wouldn't be called an 'opt-out') knows SFA about Berlaymont and its culture. In the pre-brexit Golden Age, I prepared 20+ students for the European Commission language assessments and I'm still in touch with some of them so I reckon I know a bit about it.

    Rejoin of the UK and the utter humiliation of the leavers would be the final vindication of "The Project" on an emotional and philosophical level. For that prize, they'd give a lot and a Euro opt-out marketed as an assessment period of undefined duration wouldn't even make them blink twice.

    Some of us (not many, I accept) would want to join the Euro. It would make European travel easier, and give banks and financial services companies one less way in which to screw us.
    I'd be interested to see polling on emotional attachment to the £ by age. I find it hard to felieve anyone under 30 has a huge love of notes with tampon Charlie's phizzog on them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,300
    Leon said:

    I suggested exactly this a couple of weeks ago. Indeed I suggested Starmer should totally outfox his opponents and announce a referendum NOW in THIS parliament. In two years time

    It would electrify British politics and transform perceptions of him. Might well be won and millions would flock to his side. Suddenly he’s the brave visionary who took on the right

    He could say “the fiscal crisis is so bad we have to do this” and “it’s the only way to solve migration” blah blah. It would be a genius move. Then resign as a hero having reversed Brexit and let the next daft fucker sort out the actual horrendous mess of Rejoining (coz jt would be a total shitshow - euro Schengen renegotiation etc)

    Waiting to the next election is too late. In reality people will recoil from the prospect of more division, even if in theory they say they want it. Needs to be a fait accompli

    Then he hands the red wall on a plate to Farage and at most becomes a lame duck propped up by the LDs after the next general election
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,134

    One term latest:

    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    I wonder how the demand for concrete breaks down by category? Housebuilding, other building construction, roads/infrastructure etc ?
    Here is an unpaywalled link to the Telegraph article:-
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/af8bfaa24c934d26
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,189
    Leon said:

    I suggested exactly this a couple of weeks ago. Indeed I suggested Starmer should totally outfox his opponents and announce a referendum NOW in THIS parliament. In two years time

    It would electrify British politics and transform perceptions of him. Might well be won and millions would flock to his side. Suddenly he’s the brave visionary who took on the right

    He could say “the fiscal crisis is so bad we have to do this” and “it’s the only way to solve migration” blah blah. It would be a genius move. Then resign as a hero having reversed Brexit and let the next daft fucker sort out the actual horrendous mess of Rejoining (coz jt would be a total shitshow - euro Schengen renegotiation etc)

    Waiting to the next election is too late. In reality people will recoil from the prospect of more division, even if in theory they say they want it. Needs to be a fait accompli

    Only two problems, @Leon. The thought of Starmer as a brave visionary and his being part of the right, even if he pretends not to be.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    On topic, and starting with the betting, 25/1 for 2029 is worth looking at too. The next election might easily be in May 2028 and if it is, and Labour wins, then 2029 becomes a much more plausible option than the 4% chance the odds imply, even after discounting the first two parts of that equation.

    As for the politics, Labour won't jump until the Lib Dems jump - and the Lib Dems are peculiarly hostile to jumping at the moment, despite the support out there. Presumably, this is a combination of a feeling that it's not a vote-shifting issue and memories of fingers being burnt with Revoke in 2019.

    On those two points, I think the second one is misplaced. Revoke - despite the petition at the time - was always vulnerable to the charge of being undemocratic: that it takes a vote to override a vote and that a second referendum would have been the only legitimate option to reverse the 2016 vote (and even then, it'd be marginal). But the 2016 mandate is long expired. Britain voted to Leave: we have left. That's it. An electorate cannot be held hostage by a decision taken over a decade earlier, any more than the voters in 2016 were bound by 1975. Plus, the world has changed. Not only in the lived experience of Brexit but the wider geopolitical situation - and not in a good way.

    On the first point, there is a real risk that many voters could consider Brexit a niche concern - one which it'd be nice to reverse in principle but still wary of the reality - and which shouldn't be allowed to override more practical concerns about public services, the cost of living and housing, for example. But that can be addressed in campaigning by focusing on those questions and turning excessive focus from the media about the EU to more practical issues. On the other hand, there is a meaningful chunk of the electorate not already planning on voting LD which is exercised by the issue and could be persuadable on the question - and even, say, 4% shifting on it is the kind of figure that can make the difference between winning and losing.

    Will Ed Davey and co go beyond advocating a kind of SM relationship? I don't know. For one thing, there's the obvious response about how the EU might react when even if Labour did win the next election, Reform would probably be the main opposition. There are also questions about opt-outs, the single currency and so on, all of which would have to be faced (for my part, membership means membership; the cakeism of the post-1991 UK govt approach was a large part of what put Britain on the road to Brexit: you can't be at the central table helping to guide events and policy if you're not in the central institutions of the Union - opting out of projects meant opting out of influence). But at least have the debate.

    I don't see either 2029 or 2030 as likely options. There's too much timidity in the political centre and too much confidence on the extremes. But they're more than the one-in-ten chance implied.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,825
    Dura_Ace said:

    Anybody who thinks the EU wouldn't give a rejoining UK an opt-out on the Euro (although it wouldn't be called an 'opt-out') knows SFA about Berlaymont and its culture. In the pre-brexit Golden Age, I prepared 20+ students for the European Commission language assessments and I'm still in touch with some of them so I reckon I know a bit about it.

    Rejoin of the UK and the utter humiliation of the leavers would be the final vindication of "The Project" on an emotional and philosophical level. For that prize, they'd give a lot and a Euro opt-out marketed as an assessment period of undefined duration wouldn't even make them blink twice.

    lol

    This is the exact psychological equivalent of “we hold all the cards in this negotiation” and “German car makers will demand to give us a great deal” ie all that hopeful
    sad bullshit from the Brexiteers - only from the other side, this time

    Hilarious
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,005
    Eabhal said:

    One term latest:


    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    Well, Economics 1A would suggest that would be make it much cheaper for the government to pop some medium-density council housing up. I think HS2 was crowding out long-term supply of concrete too?

    (I know there is deeply complex science behind different types of concrete before someone cracks into me).
    Building council houses only wins votes if local people get them.

    And local means people with a generation or more history in that area, not someone who arrived a few months ago.

    My suggestion would be to build a pair of council semis in every village in the country every year / two years / five years depending on the size of the village and the local house prices.

    With only people who had an ancestor living in this country 50+ years ago eligible to live in them.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,444

    Leon said:

    Jesus I should be prime minister. This is ridiculous. Why am I not prime minister

    I could do the job better than starmer just by giving it 20 minutes a day in between carving granitic ticklers and knocking out travel articles for the Gazette

    Who was it who said 'I think I'd be rather good at it'?
    Augurs well.
    TBF, he was rather good at it, compared to his successors. And immediate predecessor.

    The best two PMs of the Millennium so far were brought down by factions within their own parties.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,189
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wow.

    It's a fair idea to raise - it's most odd that in a country which now overwhelmingly rejects Brexit, and at the very least a plurality would support the idea of rejoining, not a single UK party has anything near such a thing as part of their platform.

    Just look at that Tory split.

    44% Remain

    47% Leave

    Crossover soon.
    Only because about half of those who voted for Boris and the Conservatives in 2019 now back Reform.

    So the only Tory voters left tend
    to be Cameroon Remainers or soft Brexiteers like Sunak was
    Or loyalists like yourself. I can’t imagine you joining Reform, however much you agree with their policies.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,189
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anybody who thinks the EU wouldn't give a rejoining UK an opt-out on the Euro (although it wouldn't be called an 'opt-out') knows SFA about Berlaymont and its culture. In the pre-brexit Golden Age, I prepared 20+ students for the European Commission language assessments and I'm still in touch with some of them so I reckon I know a bit about it.

    Rejoin of the UK and the utter humiliation of the leavers would be the final vindication of "The Project" on an emotional and philosophical level. For that prize, they'd give a lot and a Euro opt-out marketed as an assessment period of undefined duration wouldn't even make them blink twice.

    Some of us (not many, I accept) would want to join the Euro. It would make European travel easier, and give banks and financial services companies one less way in which to screw us.
    While handing control of interest rates to Frankfurt
    If it removes the dead hand of the Treasury from UK policymaking, it would be a good thing.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,756

    I was 50/50 stay/leave myself and only made my mind up on the way to the polling station. The biggest negative was that I thought we would f*ck up our leaving. The problem with all the people saying "hard Brexit" "Norway" etc was that it was not in our hands, the EU had no leaving process and it would be subject to negotiation, so you could not predict what would come out of it.

    The EU has already started one thing it always should have, which is do something about the Schengen border. I always thought that should be an EU responsibility and not left to members, Schengen is a great idea but needs a ring of steel outside.

    But the big issue is the democratic defect. I don't much like the way the UK is being run, but I dislike it less than I did 15 months ago, and you know what I got to vote. If I don't like the way the EU is run, I have no say.

    Of course if we ever rejoin it will have to be on a basis of freedom of movement, Schengen and the Euro, and no opt-out, and that might be enough to turn people back to "no"

    What Europe really needs right now is A Very Big Conference to sort a lot of things out - work out its plan for the future, and what it is for.

    The EU project has had significant successes. But failures also. It has increased prosperity throughout the continent, and prevented war. But it was not established to see one of its largest members leave, or for it to be encountering migration/demographic shocks, or for many of its member state electorates to be shifting to populist right wing, nationalistic parties intent on undoing it.

    Europe needs a new settlement as radical as the Treaty of Rome, the SEA and Maastricht before it. It also needs to very quickly decide whether multi-speed Europe is a goer.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,825

    Leon said:

    Jesus I should be prime minister. This is ridiculous. Why am I not prime minister

    I could do the job better than starmer just by giving it 20 minutes a day in between carving granitic ticklers and knocking out travel articles for the Gazette

    Who was it who said 'I think I'd be rather good at it'?
    Augurs well.
    TBF, he was rather good at it, compared to his successors. And immediate predecessor.

    The best two PMs of the Millennium so far were brought down by factions within their own parties.
    Good at it? He called an unnecessary and unloseable referendum on a history-changing issue and then proceeded to lose it by being so shit at 1 negotiations and 2. Politics and 3. Campaigning

    By his own metrics, Cameron was not “good at it”. He was disastrous at it

    His epitaph will be “the guy that lost the Brexit vote” and maybe a small sub epitaph that says “austerity”
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,491
    Dura_Ace said:

    Anybody who thinks the EU wouldn't give a rejoining UK an opt-out on the Euro (although it wouldn't be called an 'opt-out') knows SFA about Berlaymont and its culture. In the pre-brexit Golden Age, I prepared 20+ students for the European Commission language assessments and I'm still in touch with some of them so I reckon I know a bit about it.

    Rejoin of the UK and the utter humiliation of the leavers would be the final vindication of "The Project" on an emotional and philosophical level. For that prize, they'd give a lot and a Euro opt-out marketed as an assessment period of undefined duration wouldn't even make them blink twice.

    "We want you back, we want you back, we want you back for good"

    They'll be singing to themselves.

    Possible in my lifetime, I think, if I keep eating the broccoli.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,134

    Surprise, surprise: the Southport rioters were not all fine, upstanding individuals...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c201e9qq9g6o

    Perhaps if we want to keep people safe, we should keep migrants and deport the rioters.

    With her distinctive short cropped hair, Hodgkinson-Hedgecox is easily identifiable in the reams of footage from that evening outside the hotel. She did not throw any missiles, she had no part in setting any fires, but she was standing in front of police lines shouting abuse at them, and making obscene gestures at the asylum seekers living in the hotel.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c201e9qq9g6o

    The woman's actions do seem to have been at the ‘hurty words’ end of the spectrum.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,575
    edited August 4

    Leon said:

    Jesus I should be prime minister. This is ridiculous. Why am I not prime minister

    I could do the job better than starmer just by giving it 20 minutes a day in between carving granitic ticklers and knocking out travel articles for the Gazette

    Who was it who said 'I think I'd be rather good at it'?
    Augurs well.
    TBF, he was rather good at it, compared to his successors. And immediate predecessor.

    The best two PMs of the Millennium so far were brought down by factions within their own parties.
    Never saw you as a Boris fan...

    Cameron scuttled off entirely of his own volition (despite saying he wouldn't) after drastically misjudging Brexit.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,400

    Eabhal said:

    One term latest:


    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    Well, Economics 1A would suggest that would be make it much cheaper for the government to pop some medium-density council housing up. I think HS2 was crowding out long-term supply of concrete too?

    (I know there is deeply complex science behind different types of concrete before someone cracks into me).
    Building council houses only wins votes if local people get them.

    And local means people with a generation or more history in that area, not someone who arrived a few months ago.

    My suggestion would be to build a pair of council semis in every village in the country every year / two years / five years depending on the size of the village and the local house prices.

    With only people who had an ancestor living in this country 50+ years ago eligible to live in them.
    That would mean some English pensioners being allowed to retire into them. Absolutely not - I want to see a geographical link to the area going back 1000+ years.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,284
    edited August 4
    Such was the degree of tactical voting in 2024, it would be unlikely to help Labour that much, in seats where Labour is threatened by Reform. The Lib Dem vote in such seats is already voting Labour. Nor are there more than a handful of seats where the Lib Dem’s are challenging Labour.

    The Sultanas are motivated by different issues.

    It could help with the Greens, but the typical Green voter is someone who wants a degree of radical socialism that neither Starmer nor the EU will deliver.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,134

    Leon said:

    Jesus I should be prime minister. This is ridiculous. Why am I not prime minister

    I could do the job better than starmer just by giving it 20 minutes a day in between carving granitic ticklers and knocking out travel articles for the Gazette

    Who was it who said 'I think I'd be rather good at it'?
    Augurs well.
    TBF, he was rather good at it, compared to his successors. And immediate predecessor.

    The best two PMs of the Millennium so far were brought down by factions within their own parties.
    David Cameron's immediate predecessor was Gordon Brown, who led the international response to the Global Financial Crisis. Cameron broke up Europe and came within a gnat's whisker of breaking up the UK.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,170

    Donald Trump appoints child sex offender to presidential council: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-inviting-sex-offender-white-house-2107403

    Lawrence Taylor is a former professional football player. He pleaded guilty to charges after having sex with a 16-year old (below the local age of consent), having paid her $300. He has also been found guilty of leaving the scene of an accident twice, of drunk driving, and of failing to report a new address as a registered sex offender. Trump has appointed him to the President's Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition.

    He'll fit right in.
    I’m not so sure. Compared to the rest of the Trump crowd, that’s a rookie criminal career.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,005
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    One term latest:


    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    Well, Economics 1A would suggest that would be make it much cheaper for the government to pop some medium-density council housing up. I think HS2 was crowding out long-term supply of concrete too?

    (I know there is deeply complex science behind different types of concrete before someone cracks into me).
    Building council houses only wins votes if local people get them.

    And local means people with a generation or more history in that area, not someone who arrived a few months ago.

    My suggestion would be to build a pair of council semis in every village in the country every year / two years / five years depending on the size of the village and the local house prices.

    With only people who had an ancestor living in this country 50+ years ago eligible to live in them.
    That would mean some English pensioners being allowed to retire into them. Absolutely not - I want to see a geographical link to the area going back 1000+ years.
    Seriously though, the fifty year limit would allow for the post war immigrants from Windrush to the Ugandan Asians.

    Its the immigrants of the last generation - who governments continually promised wouldn't come - who would be ineligible.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,170

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anybody who thinks the EU wouldn't give a rejoining UK an opt-out on the Euro (although it wouldn't be called an 'opt-out') knows SFA about Berlaymont and its culture. In the pre-brexit Golden Age, I prepared 20+ students for the European Commission language assessments and I'm still in touch with some of them so I reckon I know a bit about it.

    Rejoin of the UK and the utter humiliation of the leavers would be the final vindication of "The Project" on an emotional and philosophical level. For that prize, they'd give a lot and a Euro opt-out marketed as an assessment period of undefined duration wouldn't even make them blink twice.

    Some of us (not many, I accept) would want to join the Euro. It would make European travel easier, and give banks and financial services companies one less way in which to screw us.
    You might not want the “fiscal alignment” that would come with it.

    Remember, in the U.K., the government gold plates it’s following of the law. So there would be no fiddling at the margins.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,052
    On topic, are there people not voting Labour because of their stance on Brexit?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,491
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anybody who thinks the EU wouldn't give a rejoining UK an opt-out on the Euro (although it wouldn't be called an 'opt-out') knows SFA about Berlaymont and its culture. In the pre-brexit Golden Age, I prepared 20+ students for the European Commission language assessments and I'm still in touch with some of them so I reckon I know a bit about it.

    Rejoin of the UK and the utter humiliation of the leavers would be the final vindication of "The Project" on an emotional and philosophical level. For that prize, they'd give a lot and a Euro opt-out marketed as an assessment period of undefined duration wouldn't even make them blink twice.

    lol

    This is the exact psychological equivalent of “we hold all the cards in this negotiation” and “German car makers will demand to give us a great deal” ie all that hopeful
    sad bullshit from the Brexiteers - only from the other side, this time

    Hilarious
    Not really. It's just a useful corrective to all the 'we'd have to join the Euro' chestnutting.

    The truth is we don't know what rejoining would look like.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,467

    Attended the online hustings for the leadership of the Greens last Thursday.

    Backed Zack this morning along with fellow candidates down the ticket.

    It's clear he is loathed by some establishment Greens but as their only ideas are continuation neo liberalism they are best ignored.

    Should Polansky win, an electoral pact with the new Party would imo, see challenges from left and right to the continuation billionaire backers who have been in power for the last 46 years.

    They will enable NF4PM I hear you say.

    No that's SKS and the red and blue Tories I think you will find.

    A challenge from the populist left is the best way to stop the populist right. SKS has seen to that.

    Polanski (with an -i not a -y) has supported the idea of some sort of pact with the new Corbyn/Sultana party, however Corbyn dismissed the idea recently. A Polanski-led Greens and a Corbyn-led party competing on the same political territory would seem a bad idea for both.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,550
    "a second referendum might be Labour’s hail May move."

    Cheaper to put a statue of Theresa in every town centre in the land.

    And less divisive.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,052
    Sean_F said:

    Such was the degree of tactical voting in 2024, it would be unlikely to help Labour that much, in seats where Labour is threatened by Reform. The Lib Dem vote in such seats is already voting Labour. Nor are there more than a handful of seats where the Lib Dem’s are challenging Labour.

    The Sultanas are motivated by different issues.

    It could help with the Greens, but the typical Green voter is someone who wants a degree of radical socialism that neither Starmer nor the EU will deliver.

    Yes, this is how I see it. The one party where offering another referendum might just help is the Tories. But I don't see it happening any time soon.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,808
    edited August 4

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anybody who thinks the EU wouldn't give a rejoining UK an opt-out on the Euro (although it wouldn't be called an 'opt-out') knows SFA about Berlaymont and its culture. In the pre-brexit Golden Age, I prepared 20+ students for the European Commission language assessments and I'm still in touch with some of them so I reckon I know a bit about it.

    Rejoin of the UK and the utter humiliation of the leavers would be the final vindication of "The Project" on an emotional and philosophical level. For that prize, they'd give a lot and a Euro opt-out marketed as an assessment period of undefined duration wouldn't even make them blink twice.

    Some of us (not many, I accept) would want to join the Euro. It would make European travel easier, and give banks and financial services companies one less way in which to screw us.
    I'd be interested to see polling on emotional attachment to the £ by age. I find it hard to felieve anyone under 30 has a huge love of notes with tampon Charlie's phizzog on them.
    I doubt that most people under 30 have even seen a banknote recently, apart from perhaps the one tucked into their phone case for emergencies.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Leon said:

    Jesus I should be prime minister. This is ridiculous. Why am I not prime minister

    I could do the job better than starmer just by giving it 20 minutes a day in between carving granitic ticklers and knocking out travel articles for the Gazette

    There's nothing stopping you trying to become prime minister, if you feel that way.

    FWIW, I think there's a pretty decent chance you could get elected for Reform. Taking it from there might be more difficult.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,170
    Eabhal said:

    One term latest:


    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    Well, Economics 1A would suggest that would be make it much cheaper for the government to pop some medium-density council housing up. I think HS2 was crowding out long-term supply of concrete too?

    (I know there is deeply complex science behind different types of concrete before someone cracks into me).
    First off - what is being measured? 1963 should be a massively lower number.

    On the other hand there is a recession in parts of the domestic construction industry. People aren’t signing up to new projects for smaller scale and the new regulation have stalled lots of high rise projects.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,679
    Leon said:

    Jesus I should be prime minister. This is ridiculous. Why am I not prime minister

    I could do the job better than starmer just by giving it 20 minutes a day in between carving granitic ticklers and knocking out travel articles for the Gazette

    Not drunk enough.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,550
    edited August 4
    The terms of any EU re-entry would be crucial.

    Starmer would doubtless concede that we had lost our veto for PM Farage to exit again.

    He'd also need to tell us where the NHS cuts to pay our entry fees would hit.

    Quiet, behind the scenes closer working relations with the EU is where success lies. Enough to win over the Rejoiners? Dunno...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,883
    edited August 4

    One term latest:

    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    I wonder how the demand for concrete breaks down by category? Housebuilding, other building construction, roads/infrastructure etc ?
    Is that not arguably a logic fail, and a bit of Telegrunting going on?

    If concrete is to be used for building houses esp. foundations, then a demand fall means a price fall and houses can be built more cost-effectively - which should boost growth. And it ignores houses built from not-concrete, which has an effect.

    There's something strange going on. This is the Telegraph story, and it is based on something from the Mineral Products Association:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/03/concrete-sales-plunge-62-year-low/

    There's a mass of stats, but nothing directly relevant - it is Q2 vs Q1 and ten year (1/3 down) and twenty year (1/2 down) trends.

    It was also the MPA (who welcome some Govt policies) that the Telegraph were using for "mahoosive landfill tax" stuff a few days ago.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,575

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anybody who thinks the EU wouldn't give a rejoining UK an opt-out on the Euro (although it wouldn't be called an 'opt-out') knows SFA about Berlaymont and its culture. In the pre-brexit Golden Age, I prepared 20+ students for the European Commission language assessments and I'm still in touch with some of them so I reckon I know a bit about it.

    Rejoin of the UK and the utter humiliation of the leavers would be the final vindication of "The Project" on an emotional and philosophical level. For that prize, they'd give a lot and a Euro opt-out marketed as an assessment period of undefined duration wouldn't even make them blink twice.

    Some of us (not many, I accept) would want to join the Euro. It would make European travel easier, and give banks and financial services companies one less way in which to screw us.
    I'd be interested to see polling on emotional attachment to the £ by age. I find it hard to felieve anyone under 30 has a huge love of notes with tampon Charlie's phizzog on them.
    I doubt that most people under 30 have even seen a banknote recently, apart from perhaps the one tucked into their phone case for emergencies.
    That emergency involving being tightly rolled into a straw..
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,467

    Eabhal said:

    One term latest:


    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    Well, Economics 1A would suggest that would be make it much cheaper for the government to pop some medium-density council housing up. I think HS2 was crowding out long-term supply of concrete too?

    (I know there is deeply complex science behind different types of concrete before someone cracks into me).
    Building council houses only wins votes if local people get them.

    And local means people with a generation or more history in that area, not someone who arrived a few months ago.

    My suggestion would be to build a pair of council semis in every village in the country every year / two years / five years depending on the size of the village and the local house prices.

    With only people who had an ancestor living in this country 50+ years ago eligible to live in them.
    Most council housing rules require you to have lived in the area for more than "a few months". Here's Camden's:

    https://www.camden.gov.uk/apply-council-housing

    To join the housing register you must have:

    lived in Camden for 5 out of the last 7 years
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,444

    Leon said:

    Jesus I should be prime minister. This is ridiculous. Why am I not prime minister

    I could do the job better than starmer just by giving it 20 minutes a day in between carving granitic ticklers and knocking out travel articles for the Gazette

    Who was it who said 'I think I'd be rather good at it'?
    Augurs well.
    TBF, he was rather good at it, compared to his successors. And immediate predecessor.

    The best two PMs of the Millennium so far were brought down by factions within their own parties.
    David Cameron's immediate predecessor was Gordon Brown, who led the international response to the Global Financial Crisis. Cameron broke up Europe and came within a gnat's whisker of breaking up the UK.
    Gordon Brown was chancellor for a decade, and put the UK in a terrible position to deal with the financial crisis. Just because of his vainglorious ambition to be PM.

    Cameron - to his credit - realised that there were some things causing rancour - such as Europe. He tried to deal with them, in the same way Blair and Brown tried to sweep those issues under the carpet and ignore the elephant-sized bulge in the middle of the sitting room floor.

    Were either devils? No. Were either brilliant? No. But I'd place Cameron above Brown in a ranking of PMs, any day of the week.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,825
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anybody who thinks the EU wouldn't give a rejoining UK an opt-out on the Euro (although it wouldn't be called an 'opt-out') knows SFA about Berlaymont and its culture. In the pre-brexit Golden Age, I prepared 20+ students for the European Commission language assessments and I'm still in touch with some of them so I reckon I know a bit about it.

    Rejoin of the UK and the utter humiliation of the leavers would be the final vindication of "The Project" on an emotional and philosophical level. For that prize, they'd give a lot and a Euro opt-out marketed as an assessment period of undefined duration wouldn't even make them blink twice.

    lol

    This is the exact psychological equivalent of “we hold all the cards in this negotiation” and “German car makers will demand to give us a great deal” ie all that hopeful
    sad bullshit from the Brexiteers - only from the other side, this time

    Hilarious
    Not really. It's just a useful corrective to all the 'we'd have to join the Euro' chestnutting.

    The truth is we don't know what rejoining would look like.
    It will be a nightmare. This is perfectly obvious

    For every “student that @Dura_Ace taught in Brussels” (lol, really??) there will be entire nations that want a pound of flesh, half our fishing, the crushing of the City, massive payments of Danegeld, on and on - because every country has a veto on further members and Britain is a big bad problematic country in so many ways. Some might just veto us outright

    It will be a nightmare. Just as Brexit was a nightmare - tho at least in that instance they could not stop us leaving, in the end. In this instance they can literally say Nah - it just takes one country

    Inability to see this is pitiful
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,170
    MattW said:

    One term latest:

    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    I wonder how the demand for concrete breaks down by category? Housebuilding, other building construction, roads/infrastructure etc ?
    Is that not arguably a logic fail, and a bit of Telegrunting going on?

    If concrete is to be used for building houses esp. foundations, then a demand fall means a price fall and houses can be built more cost-effectively - which should boost growth. And it ignores houses built from not-concrete, which has an effect.

    There's something strange going on. This is the Telegraph story, and it is based on something from the Mineral Products Association:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/03/concrete-sales-plunge-62-year-low/

    There's a mass of stats, but nothing directly relevant - it is Q2 vs Q1 and ten year (1/3 down) and twenty year (1/2 down) trends.

    It was also the MPA (who welcome some Govt policies) that the Telegraph were using for "mahoosive landfill tax" stuff a few days ago.
    I'm pretty sure that you *can't* build a house without a concrete foundation, in the UK. As in get it signed off. Trying to think of an alternative - but then you would run into getting the alternative signed off.

    In the UK concrete above the foundation is rare, for houses. For high rise, it is pretty much universal.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,467
    More news on Republicans' peccadillos...

    https://www.comicsands.com/capriglione-affair-abortions

    Republican state Rep. Giovanni Capriglione, a lead author of Texas' abortion ban, has admitted to having an affair with former exotic dancer Alex Grace starting when she was 18—and Grace is claiming that he even paid for "several" abortions.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,444

    Eabhal said:

    One term latest:


    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    Well, Economics 1A would suggest that would be make it much cheaper for the government to pop some medium-density council housing up. I think HS2 was crowding out long-term supply of concrete too?

    (I know there is deeply complex science behind different types of concrete before someone cracks into me).
    First off - what is being measured? 1963 should be a massively lower number.

    On the other hand there is a recession in parts of the domestic construction industry. People aren’t signing up to new projects for smaller scale and the new regulation have stalled lots of high rise projects.
    Incidentally, the local (Lib Dem) council are building high-density housing on a green space in our village, that was zoned for commercial use. (*). A firm is fencing around the site. They are digging individual holes for posts, each of which has a paper bag of Blue Circle cement (**) beside it. This struck me as being a very inefficient way of doing things - unless they are only doing a few posts a day.

    (*) It should left for commercial use, given the way the town is growing.
    (**) I haven't looked to see if it is just cement or some form of just-add-water readymix. I guess the latter, as I don't see any aggregate about.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,825

    Leon said:

    Jesus I should be prime minister. This is ridiculous. Why am I not prime minister

    I could do the job better than starmer just by giving it 20 minutes a day in between carving granitic ticklers and knocking out travel articles for the Gazette

    There's nothing stopping you trying to become prime minister, if you feel that way.

    FWIW, I think there's a pretty decent chance you could get elected for Reform. Taking it from there might be more difficult.
    I might have a go

    I could see myself as a minister. PM? Pushing it

    Maybe a Cornish constituency
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,883
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Battlebus said:

    Nigelb said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Joining the EU could be achieved through legislation, as Heath did at the outset. It was Harold Wilson who invented the idea of a plebiscite to paper over the cracks in the Labour Party. It is the duty of elected representatives to make decisions in an informed and coherent way, not subcontract them to the rabble.

    Indeed, as the example of Switzerland demonstrates clearly.
    That's not working quite so well for them now.

    Confusion and anger in Switzerland - hit by highest tariffs in Europe
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c987l633zdgo
    Seems a bit odd to levy different levels of tariffs on countries within the same bloc. It's a bit like the restrictions of items going into Russia. People find ways if there is a margin in it. Seems performative at best.
    That's to do with Trump's definition of tariff level, surely?

    take the trade deficit for the US in goods with a particular country, divide that by the total goods imports from that country and then divide that number by two

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93gq72n7y1o

    An interesting take on the EU trade deal (taken as a bad deal by many commentators) is that it is to do with locking Trump into supplying Ukraine, and that many of the "huge amount of weapons Europe promised to buy from the USA" are for Ukraine eg Patriot missiles, so the "deal" makes pulling the rug on Ukraine a downside for Trump.

    Is he still tariffing the penguins?
    The US has a trade surplus with Brazil.
    Which got tariffed hard.
    Is that not a special uplift of Trump trying to interfere in Brazil, since his buddy former President Wotsit is up before the beak?

    I think Switzerland is about surplus, and is the highest in Europe because they are perceived to have licked the golden boot. Plus they do not quite have Canada's leverage.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,444
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus I should be prime minister. This is ridiculous. Why am I not prime minister

    I could do the job better than starmer just by giving it 20 minutes a day in between carving granitic ticklers and knocking out travel articles for the Gazette

    There's nothing stopping you trying to become prime minister, if you feel that way.

    FWIW, I think there's a pretty decent chance you could get elected for Reform. Taking it from there might be more difficult.
    I might have a go

    I could see myself as a minister. PM? Pushing it

    Maybe a Cornish constituency
    But you're a Devonian. A cream-tea softy rather than rugged, muscly miner. :)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,170
    edited August 4
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anybody who thinks the EU wouldn't give a rejoining UK an opt-out on the Euro (although it wouldn't be called an 'opt-out') knows SFA about Berlaymont and its culture. In the pre-brexit Golden Age, I prepared 20+ students for the European Commission language assessments and I'm still in touch with some of them so I reckon I know a bit about it.

    Rejoin of the UK and the utter humiliation of the leavers would be the final vindication of "The Project" on an emotional and philosophical level. For that prize, they'd give a lot and a Euro opt-out marketed as an assessment period of undefined duration wouldn't even make them blink twice.

    lol

    This is the exact psychological equivalent of “we hold all the cards in this negotiation” and “German car makers will demand to give us a great deal” ie all that hopeful
    sad bullshit from the Brexiteers - only from the other side, this time

    Hilarious
    Not really. It's just a useful corrective to all the 'we'd have to join the Euro' chestnutting.

    The truth is we don't know what rejoining would look like.
    As multiple people have pointed out, we would get the same conditions of entry as everyone else. Which would mean signing up, eventually, for the Euro.

    The UK economy/government budget doesn't meet the conditions to join the Euro. Either

    1) The government bravely decides that service cuts *and* tax rises are awesome. And does a decade of Euro Austerity.
    2) Or they continue with misalignment that prevents entry to the Euro. So the "eventually" in joining the Euro is the other side of "never".

    Hmmm.... that's a tough one.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,005

    Eabhal said:

    One term latest:


    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    Well, Economics 1A would suggest that would be make it much cheaper for the government to pop some medium-density council housing up. I think HS2 was crowding out long-term supply of concrete too?

    (I know there is deeply complex science behind different types of concrete before someone cracks into me).
    Building council houses only wins votes if local people get them.

    And local means people with a generation or more history in that area, not someone who arrived a few months ago.

    My suggestion would be to build a pair of council semis in every village in the country every year / two years / five years depending on the size of the village and the local house prices.

    With only people who had an ancestor living in this country 50+ years ago eligible to live in them.
    Most council housing rules require you to have lived in the area for more than "a few months". Here's Camden's:

    https://www.camden.gov.uk/apply-council-housing

    To join the housing register you must have:

    lived in Camden for 5 out of the last 7 years
    Isn't two years more usual though ?

    My specific proposal was for rural council housing - where there are many areas where young people struggle to find any housing at all, let alone affordable housing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,925
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus I should be prime minister. This is ridiculous. Why am I not prime minister

    I could do the job better than starmer just by giving it 20 minutes a day in between carving granitic ticklers and knocking out travel articles for the Gazette

    There's nothing stopping you trying to become prime minister, if you feel that way.

    FWIW, I think there's a pretty decent chance you could get elected for Reform. Taking it from there might be more difficult.
    I might have a go

    I could see myself as a minister. PM? Pushing it

    Maybe a Cornish constituency
    There's still a culture of heavy drinking and 'socialising' though, something to bear in mind. Tbh if you go for it with Reform you'll probably get a constituency and the way things are going may well end up an MP.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361

    Attended the online hustings for the leadership of the Greens last Thursday.

    Backed Zack this morning along with fellow candidates down the ticket.

    It's clear he is loathed by some establishment Greens but as their only ideas are continuation neo liberalism they are best ignored.

    Should Polansky win, an electoral pact with the new Party would imo, see challenges from left and right to the continuation billionaire backers who have been in power for the last 46 years.

    They will enable NF4PM I hear you say.

    No that's SKS and the red and blue Tories I think you will find.

    A challenge from the populist left is the best way to stop the populist right. SKS has seen to that.

    Polanski (with an -i not a -y) has supported the idea of some sort of pact with the new Corbyn/Sultana party, however Corbyn dismissed the idea recently. A Polanski-led Greens and a Corbyn-led party competing on the same political territory would seem a bad idea for both.
    Indeed. Why go to all the trouble of a new party if you're then going to have an electoral alliance? Why not just join them directly?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,467

    Eabhal said:

    One term latest:


    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    Well, Economics 1A would suggest that would be make it much cheaper for the government to pop some medium-density council housing up. I think HS2 was crowding out long-term supply of concrete too?

    (I know there is deeply complex science behind different types of concrete before someone cracks into me).
    Building council houses only wins votes if local people get them.

    And local means people with a generation or more history in that area, not someone who arrived a few months ago.

    My suggestion would be to build a pair of council semis in every village in the country every year / two years / five years depending on the size of the village and the local house prices.

    With only people who had an ancestor living in this country 50+ years ago eligible to live in them.
    Most council housing rules require you to have lived in the area for more than "a few months". Here's Camden's:

    https://www.camden.gov.uk/apply-council-housing

    To join the housing register you must have:

    lived in Camden for 5 out of the last 7 years
    Isn't two years more usual though ?

    My specific proposal was for rural council housing - where there are many areas where young people struggle to find any housing at all, let alone affordable housing.
    Two years is still more than "a few months".

    There is a big problem with everyone finding affordable housing, I agree. We need more housebuilding, I agree.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,444
    Personally, I think a hot war might be the biggest factor in dramatically changing our relationship with the EU, either in or out.

    If and when Putin does something too brazen with European states, we'll all either have to band together, or fall apart. The latter being by far the worst option.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,883

    Eabhal said:

    One term latest:


    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    Well, Economics 1A would suggest that would be make it much cheaper for the government to pop some medium-density council housing up. I think HS2 was crowding out long-term supply of concrete too?

    (I know there is deeply complex science behind different types of concrete before someone cracks into me).
    First off - what is being measured? 1963 should be a massively lower number.

    On the other hand there is a recession in parts of the domestic construction industry. People aren’t signing up to new projects for smaller scale and the new regulation have stalled lots of high rise projects.
    Incidentally, the local (Lib Dem) council are building high-density housing on a green space in our village, that was zoned for commercial use. (*). A firm is fencing around the site. They are digging individual holes for posts, each of which has a paper bag of Blue Circle cement (**) beside it. This struck me as being a very inefficient way of doing things - unless they are only doing a few posts a day.

    (*) It should left for commercial use, given the way the town is growing.
    (**) I haven't looked to see if it is just cement or some form of just-add-water readymix. I guess the latter, as I don't see any aggregate about.
    Postcrete is Blue Circle - yellow and red bag. And it sets in minutes and hardens in an hour.

    If they are building a real fence with posts, then it sounds like a one-hit where they do the real fence (or the posts) first, so that the panels will fit later, rather than eg Heras fencing now and the rest later. Or there could be permanent security fencing.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,467
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus I should be prime minister. This is ridiculous. Why am I not prime minister

    I could do the job better than starmer just by giving it 20 minutes a day in between carving granitic ticklers and knocking out travel articles for the Gazette

    There's nothing stopping you trying to become prime minister, if you feel that way.

    FWIW, I think there's a pretty decent chance you could get elected for Reform. Taking it from there might be more difficult.
    I might have a go

    I could see myself as a minister. PM? Pushing it

    Maybe a Cornish constituency
    There's still a culture of heavy drinking and 'socialising' though, something to bear in mind. Tbh if you go for it with Reform you'll probably get a constituency and the way things are going may well end up an MP.
    I don't think someone with a record of saying blatantly racist things has any chance of becoming a candidate for Ref... oh, yeah, sure.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,491

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anybody who thinks the EU wouldn't give a rejoining UK an opt-out on the Euro (although it wouldn't be called an 'opt-out') knows SFA about Berlaymont and its culture. In the pre-brexit Golden Age, I prepared 20+ students for the European Commission language assessments and I'm still in touch with some of them so I reckon I know a bit about it.

    Rejoin of the UK and the utter humiliation of the leavers would be the final vindication of "The Project" on an emotional and philosophical level. For that prize, they'd give a lot and a Euro opt-out marketed as an assessment period of undefined duration wouldn't even make them blink twice.

    lol

    This is the exact psychological equivalent of “we hold all the cards in this negotiation” and “German car makers will demand to give us a great deal” ie all that hopeful
    sad bullshit from the Brexiteers - only from the other side, this time

    Hilarious
    Not really. It's just a useful corrective to all the 'we'd have to join the Euro' chestnutting.

    The truth is we don't know what rejoining would look like.
    As multiple people have pointed out, we would get the same conditions of entry as everyone else. Which would mean signing up, eventually, for the Euro.

    The UK economy/government budget doesn't meet the conditions to join the Euro. Either

    1) The government bravely decides that service cuts *and* tax rises are awesome. And does a decade of Euro Austerity.
    2) Or they continue with misalignment that prevents entry to the Euro. So the "eventually" in joining the Euro is the other side of "never".

    Hmmm.... that's a tough one.
    Well those multiple people are 'asserting' not 'pointing out' - but, yes, 'eventually' can do great work when used properly, can't it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,134

    Leon said:

    Jesus I should be prime minister. This is ridiculous. Why am I not prime minister

    I could do the job better than starmer just by giving it 20 minutes a day in between carving granitic ticklers and knocking out travel articles for the Gazette

    Who was it who said 'I think I'd be rather good at it'?
    Augurs well.
    TBF, he was rather good at it, compared to his successors. And immediate predecessor.

    The best two PMs of the Millennium so far were brought down by factions within their own parties.
    David Cameron's immediate predecessor was Gordon Brown, who led the international response to the Global Financial Crisis. Cameron broke up Europe and came within a gnat's whisker of breaking up the UK.
    Gordon Brown was chancellor for a decade, and put the UK in a terrible position to deal with the financial crisis. Just because of his vainglorious ambition to be PM.

    Cameron - to his credit - realised that there were some things causing rancour - such as Europe. He tried to deal with them, in the same way Blair and Brown tried to sweep those issues under the carpet and ignore the elephant-sized bulge in the middle of the sitting room floor.

    Were either devils? No. Were either brilliant? No. But I'd place Cameron above Brown in a ranking of PMs, any day of the week.
    Well, first you are judging Brown as Chancellor not Prime Minister in your comparison. Second, you are wrong if you suppose that Brown's fudging the economic cycle had anything to do with the GFC or our response to it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,444

    Leon said:

    Jesus I should be prime minister. This is ridiculous. Why am I not prime minister

    I could do the job better than starmer just by giving it 20 minutes a day in between carving granitic ticklers and knocking out travel articles for the Gazette

    Who was it who said 'I think I'd be rather good at it'?
    Augurs well.
    TBF, he was rather good at it, compared to his successors. And immediate predecessor.

    The best two PMs of the Millennium so far were brought down by factions within their own parties.
    David Cameron's immediate predecessor was Gordon Brown, who led the international response to the Global Financial Crisis. Cameron broke up Europe and came within a gnat's whisker of breaking up the UK.
    Gordon Brown was chancellor for a decade, and put the UK in a terrible position to deal with the financial crisis. Just because of his vainglorious ambition to be PM.

    Cameron - to his credit - realised that there were some things causing rancour - such as Europe. He tried to deal with them, in the same way Blair and Brown tried to sweep those issues under the carpet and ignore the elephant-sized bulge in the middle of the sitting room floor.

    Were either devils? No. Were either brilliant? No. But I'd place Cameron above Brown in a ranking of PMs, any day of the week.
    Well, first you are judging Brown as Chancellor not Prime Minister in your comparison. Second, you are wrong if you suppose that Brown's fudging the economic cycle had anything to do with the GFC or our response to it.
    He drove the economy into a ravine whilst chancellor because he wanted to be PM - you cannot disconnect the two. And the terrible mid-term and long-term state of the economy put us in a terrible position to deal with the GFC. And hence led to austerity.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,491
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus I should be prime minister. This is ridiculous. Why am I not prime minister

    I could do the job better than starmer just by giving it 20 minutes a day in between carving granitic ticklers and knocking out travel articles for the Gazette

    There's nothing stopping you trying to become prime minister, if you feel that way.

    FWIW, I think there's a pretty decent chance you could get elected for Reform. Taking it from there might be more difficult.
    I might have a go

    I could see myself as a minister. PM? Pushing it

    Maybe a Cornish constituency
    Your ceiling would be noisy but indolent, 'rarely seen outside the Red Lion' backbencher.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,444
    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    One term latest:


    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    Well, Economics 1A would suggest that would be make it much cheaper for the government to pop some medium-density council housing up. I think HS2 was crowding out long-term supply of concrete too?

    (I know there is deeply complex science behind different types of concrete before someone cracks into me).
    First off - what is being measured? 1963 should be a massively lower number.

    On the other hand there is a recession in parts of the domestic construction industry. People aren’t signing up to new projects for smaller scale and the new regulation have stalled lots of high rise projects.
    Incidentally, the local (Lib Dem) council are building high-density housing on a green space in our village, that was zoned for commercial use. (*). A firm is fencing around the site. They are digging individual holes for posts, each of which has a paper bag of Blue Circle cement (**) beside it. This struck me as being a very inefficient way of doing things - unless they are only doing a few posts a day.

    (*) It should left for commercial use, given the way the town is growing.
    (**) I haven't looked to see if it is just cement or some form of just-add-water readymix. I guess the latter, as I don't see any aggregate about.
    Postcrete is Blue Circle - yellow and red bag. And it sets in minutes and hardens in an hour.

    If they are building a real fence with posts, then it sounds like a one-hit where they do the real fence (or the posts) first, so that the panels will fit later, rather than eg Heras fencing now and the rest later. Or there could be permanent security fencing.
    They appear to putting the posts in, and attaching panels, on the same day. it's the sort of wooden fencing you get around some building sites: 'temporary' for a year or two.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,170
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anybody who thinks the EU wouldn't give a rejoining UK an opt-out on the Euro (although it wouldn't be called an 'opt-out') knows SFA about Berlaymont and its culture. In the pre-brexit Golden Age, I prepared 20+ students for the European Commission language assessments and I'm still in touch with some of them so I reckon I know a bit about it.

    Rejoin of the UK and the utter humiliation of the leavers would be the final vindication of "The Project" on an emotional and philosophical level. For that prize, they'd give a lot and a Euro opt-out marketed as an assessment period of undefined duration wouldn't even make them blink twice.

    lol

    This is the exact psychological equivalent of “we hold all the cards in this negotiation” and “German car makers will demand to give us a great deal” ie all that hopeful
    sad bullshit from the Brexiteers - only from the other side, this time

    Hilarious
    Not really. It's just a useful corrective to all the 'we'd have to join the Euro' chestnutting.

    The truth is we don't know what rejoining would look like.
    As multiple people have pointed out, we would get the same conditions of entry as everyone else. Which would mean signing up, eventually, for the Euro.

    The UK economy/government budget doesn't meet the conditions to join the Euro. Either

    1) The government bravely decides that service cuts *and* tax rises are awesome. And does a decade of Euro Austerity.
    2) Or they continue with misalignment that prevents entry to the Euro. So the "eventually" in joining the Euro is the other side of "never".

    Hmmm.... that's a tough one.
    Well those multiple people are 'asserting' not 'pointing out' - but, yes, 'eventually' can do great work when used properly, can't it.
    It seems fairly certain - if you open up the joining criteria for the EU for negotiation, every country will stick their oar in. This is why the EU likes and tries to enforce unanimity - otherwise everything turns into a re-negotiation.

    I think the response for rejoin from the EU would be "Sure. Join the process. Let's see where you are in the alignments and legal stuff...."

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,400
    edited August 4

    Eabhal said:

    One term latest:


    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    Well, Economics 1A would suggest that would be make it much cheaper for the government to pop some medium-density council housing up. I think HS2 was crowding out long-term supply of concrete too?

    (I know there is deeply complex science behind different types of concrete before someone cracks into me).
    Building council houses only wins votes if local people get them.

    And local means people with a generation or more history in that area, not someone who arrived a few months ago.

    My suggestion would be to build a pair of council semis in every village in the country every year / two years / five years depending on the size of the village and the local house prices.

    With only people who had an ancestor living in this country 50+ years ago eligible to live in them.
    Most council housing rules require you to have lived in the area for more than "a few months". Here's Camden's:

    https://www.camden.gov.uk/apply-council-housing

    To join the housing register you must have:

    lived in Camden for 5 out of the last 7 years
    Isn't two years more usual though ?

    My specific proposal was for rural council housing - where there are many areas where young people struggle to find any housing at all, let alone affordable housing.
    But your solution was nonsense - immigrants from overseas are not the reason why people in rural areas struggle to find housing. It's minted second home owners from the rest of the UK.

    You'd need to restrict it to people with local roots, but given how mobile the population is now that is becoming unusual. I think the best criteria would be "went to secondary school in this catchment". You probably wouldn't like that very much because it's means a second generation Pakistani immigrant who grew up on Anglesey would get access to the house there before an "Anglo-Saxon" from Dorset.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,550

    More news on Republicans' peccadillos...

    https://www.comicsands.com/capriglione-affair-abortions

    Republican state Rep. Giovanni Capriglione, a lead author of Texas' abortion ban, has admitted to having an affair with former exotic dancer Alex Grace starting when she was 18—and Grace is claiming that he even paid for "several" abortions.

    The risks of riding bareback in Texas...
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,093
    Dura_Ace said:

    Taz said:

    Donald Trump appoints child sex offender to presidential council: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-inviting-sex-offender-white-house-2107403

    Lawrence Taylor is a former professional football player. He pleaded guilty to charges after having sex with a 16-year old (below the local age of consent), having paid her $300. He has also been found guilty of leaving the scene of an accident twice, of drunk driving, and of failing to report a new address as a registered sex offender. Trump has appointed him to the President's Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition.

    He also main evented Summerslam for the WWE many years ago in a shockingly poor match against Bam Bam Bigelow. 93 IIRC.
    LT was fucking great. I remember seeing him at a Redskins - Giants game as a callow teenager and we could hear his tackles and non-stop stream of screamed obscenities from the 20th row.
    He was an absolute beast of a guy. Shame he couldn’t really wrestle. Rap Icons ‘Salt N Pepa’ sang his walk on song.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,170
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    One term latest:


    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    Well, Economics 1A would suggest that would be make it much cheaper for the government to pop some medium-density council housing up. I think HS2 was crowding out long-term supply of concrete too?

    (I know there is deeply complex science behind different types of concrete before someone cracks into me).
    Building council houses only wins votes if local people get them.

    And local means people with a generation or more history in that area, not someone who arrived a few months ago.

    My suggestion would be to build a pair of council semis in every village in the country every year / two years / five years depending on the size of the village and the local house prices.

    With only people who had an ancestor living in this country 50+ years ago eligible to live in them.
    Most council housing rules require you to have lived in the area for more than "a few months". Here's Camden's:

    https://www.camden.gov.uk/apply-council-housing

    To join the housing register you must have:

    lived in Camden for 5 out of the last 7 years
    Isn't two years more usual though ?

    My specific proposal was for rural council housing - where there are many areas where young people struggle to find any housing at all, let alone affordable housing.
    But your solution was nonsense - immigrants from overseas are not the reason why people in rural areas struggle to find housing. It's minted second home owners from the rest of the UK.

    You'd need to restrict it to people with local roots, but given how mobile the population is now that is becoming unusual. I think the best criteria would be "went to secondary school in this catchment". You probably wouldn't like that very much because it's means a second generation Pakistani immigrant who grew up on Anglesey would get access to the house there before an "Anglo-Saxon" from Dorset.
    The real issue (as in real for real people) is that these local housing crises have forced people to move away. They would love to move back to their "home town" - but have now been away for years.

    How do you account for "born and lived in X until 18. Now lived 6 years, 20 miles away, in a variety of bloody horrible temporary accommodations."?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,400
    Kate Forbes will not stand at the next election.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,093

    Personally, I think a hot war might be the biggest factor in dramatically changing our relationship with the EU, either in or out.

    If and when Putin does something too brazen with European states, we'll all either have to band together, or fall apart. The latter being by far the worst option.

    I’m sure when VVP does something like that the masses ranks of the PB Armchair Brigade will be along pivoting their expertise onto this subject.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,467
    Eabhal said:

    Kate Forbes will not stand at the next election.

    From BBC:

    Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes will stand down at next year's Holyrood election.

    The Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch MSP said she did not want to "seek re-election and miss any more of the precious early years of family life".
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,883
    edited August 4

    MattW said:

    One term latest:

    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    I wonder how the demand for concrete breaks down by category? Housebuilding, other building construction, roads/infrastructure etc ?
    Is that not arguably a logic fail, and a bit of Telegrunting going on?

    If concrete is to be used for building houses esp. foundations, then a demand fall means a price fall and houses can be built more cost-effectively - which should boost growth. And it ignores houses built from not-concrete, which has an effect.

    There's something strange going on. This is the Telegraph story, and it is based on something from the Mineral Products Association:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/03/concrete-sales-plunge-62-year-low/

    There's a mass of stats, but nothing directly relevant - it is Q2 vs Q1 and ten year (1/3 down) and twenty year (1/2 down) trends.

    It was also the MPA (who welcome some Govt policies) that the Telegraph were using for "mahoosive landfill tax" stuff a few days ago.
    I'm pretty sure that you *can't* build a house without a concrete foundation, in the UK. As in get it signed off. Trying to think of an alternative - but then you would run into getting the alternative signed off.

    In the UK concrete above the foundation is rare, for houses. For high rise, it is pretty much universal.
    There are alternatives to concrete, at a material level eg limecrete.

    And you can use an aggregate base with a slab on top, where you scrape back and fill with effectively clean ballast, and pound it. Then a slab on top and the structure is bolted to the slab.

    Slight definitional debates around the meaning of "foundations", perhaps.

    Concrete above foundations is uncommon, but is used in some "fill the middle" type walling systems - Insulated Concrete Formwork, where you build hollow insulation (or maybe clay - eg porotherm) blocks like lego, shutter the outside, and fill with a concrete pump.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,194

    Dura_Ace said:

    Anybody who thinks the EU wouldn't give a rejoining UK an opt-out on the Euro (although it wouldn't be called an 'opt-out') knows SFA about Berlaymont and its culture. In the pre-brexit Golden Age, I prepared 20+ students for the European Commission language assessments and I'm still in touch with some of them so I reckon I know a bit about it.

    Rejoin of the UK and the utter humiliation of the leavers would be the final vindication of "The Project" on an emotional and philosophical level. For that prize, they'd give a lot and a Euro opt-out marketed as an assessment period of undefined duration wouldn't even make them blink twice.

    Some of us (not many, I accept) would want to join the Euro. It would make European travel easier, and give banks and financial services companies one less way in which to screw us.
    I'd be interested to see polling on emotional attachment to the £ by age. I find it hard to felieve anyone under 30 has a huge love of notes with tampon Charlie's phizzog on them.
    I don't imagine many people these days remember when they last saw currency of any denomination.

    The big question for late adopters is whether to take the cards and the phone or just the phone.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,400

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    One term latest:


    Demand for concrete has fallen to its lowest level since 1963 in a serious blow to Labour’s hopes of building more houses.

    Telegraph

    Well, Economics 1A would suggest that would be make it much cheaper for the government to pop some medium-density council housing up. I think HS2 was crowding out long-term supply of concrete too?

    (I know there is deeply complex science behind different types of concrete before someone cracks into me).
    Building council houses only wins votes if local people get them.

    And local means people with a generation or more history in that area, not someone who arrived a few months ago.

    My suggestion would be to build a pair of council semis in every village in the country every year / two years / five years depending on the size of the village and the local house prices.

    With only people who had an ancestor living in this country 50+ years ago eligible to live in them.
    Most council housing rules require you to have lived in the area for more than "a few months". Here's Camden's:

    https://www.camden.gov.uk/apply-council-housing

    To join the housing register you must have:

    lived in Camden for 5 out of the last 7 years
    Isn't two years more usual though ?

    My specific proposal was for rural council housing - where there are many areas where young people struggle to find any housing at all, let alone affordable housing.
    But your solution was nonsense - immigrants from overseas are not the reason why people in rural areas struggle to find housing. It's minted second home owners from the rest of the UK.

    You'd need to restrict it to people with local roots, but given how mobile the population is now that is becoming unusual. I think the best criteria would be "went to secondary school in this catchment". You probably wouldn't like that very much because it's means a second generation Pakistani immigrant who grew up on Anglesey would get access to the house there before an "Anglo-Saxon" from Dorset.
    The real issue (as in real for real people) is that these local housing crises have forced people to move away. They would love to move back to their "home town" - but have now been away for years.

    How do you account for "born and lived in X until 18. Now lived 6 years, 20 miles away, in a variety of bloody horrible temporary accommodations."?
    My solution does precisely that - based on where you went to secondary school.

    But I'm not actually sure that's fair. There are people working hard where I grew up - why should I be entitled to go back there? What happens if the shoe is on the other foot, and I get booted out of Edinburgh because I didn't go to school here? The whole thing is silly parochial nonsense, and demand for housing in rural Scotland from people who actually want to work and live there is pretty low.

    Whacking quadruple council tax on second home owners solves the problem, as it has done in North Wales where housing costs have crashed.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,170
    Taz said:

    Personally, I think a hot war might be the biggest factor in dramatically changing our relationship with the EU, either in or out.

    If and when Putin does something too brazen with European states, we'll all either have to band together, or fall apart. The latter being by far the worst option.

    I’m sure when VVP does something like that the masses ranks of the PB Armchair Brigade will be along pivoting their expertise onto this subject.
    What will be the "Realist Regiment" group think on this?

    "Protect the EU at all costs"? Or "The Baltics aren't proper countries and they are in the traditional sphere of influence of Russia"?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,194
    edited August 4
    As for EURef2 - what a masterstroke.

    There was a laughable comment upthread about people not liking rejoining because of the money and the immigrants.

    The immigrants!! I mean has no one been watching what immigration has been doing since we left. What a comment. Surely potd but not intentionally so.
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