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The latest general election betting – politicalbetting.com
The latest general election betting – politicalbetting.com
I think we might be approaching the point where there might be some value in backing in the Tories which is essentially a bet on Reform exploding due to scandal, internal contradictions, Farage quitting, etc but we’re not at that point yet.
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Don't think I've been in the top fifty before.
Anyway there's always incumbent swingback to look forward to. That never fails.
Rachel from accounts please. Proper nouns start with a capital letter.
I'd say there are roughly 40 such seats.
What wishcasting? Where? Stop making up bullshit.
By saying that the Reform leader is on the side of “people like Jimmy Savile”, Kyle destroys his own arguments for the Online Safety Act. The attempt to link Farage with a notorious child sex abuser is gratuitous and offensive. It makes Kyle seem desperate and allows Farage to pose as the wronged party. Farage’s criticisms of the act seem more credible after Kyle’s outburst than before.
It is surprising that Kyle has chosen to use this slur when Labour people were so indignant – and rightly so – when Boris Johnson used it against Keir Starmer. That was when Johnson was desperate: Sue Gray’s report on lockdown parties in Downing Street had just been published, and Johnson wanted some way of deflecting attention.
His attack on Starmer had nothing to do with Gray’s report. It was an aside referring to Starmer’s time as director of public prosecutions, during which, Johnson said, “he spent most of his time prosecuting journalists and failing to prosecute Jimmy Savile, as far as I can make out”.
But it was more relevant than Kyle’s attack on Farage. It is factually correct that the Crown Prosecution Service failed to prosecute Savile when Starmer was in charge, and it is unclear whether it could have done more to bring Savile to justice at the time.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/peter-kyle-jimmy-savile-comment-nigel-farage-online-safety-bill-b2797944.html
If Reform go above 30% then the Tories options collapse very swiftly.
Dot
Dot
Four
Six
Four
Six
Van Buuren was bowling quite well until then…
This is how you Bazball - without taking fool risks.
And instead they have the likes of Robert Jenrick.
As for the last true blue spots, they look pretty opportunistic, like the Lib Dem map under Ashdown or Kennedy. Better than nothing, but not much.
Fortunately for the government most people are probably fine with the Act, but it was a silly remark which means at least some people like me, who don't like Farage, think he looks more grown up, on one point at least.
The doubling down was almost Trumpian.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crm42vp32yeo
If the Conservative Party is staring defeat in the face in late 2027, and it is clear that a merger with Reform will save a *lot* of MPs jobs, then it becomes the most likely outcome.
You know things are bad when even the vile MTG calls out the Israeli government.
Were a General Election to be held today, I would expect them to make modest net gains - i.e. 5 to 10 seats - while Reform swept to a majority.
If we brought in nodal industrial energy pricing then Inverness, Teesside etc could have a mini industrial boom on the back of it.
BBC News - Could aluminium become the packaging 'champion'? - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3nw5vnzgpo?app-referrer=search
Barnstaple North Devon - LD defence should be LD hold but they won with 40% last time and Labour not running so where their vote goes might change things. Oredict LD hold
Barking - Lab defence. Reform gain here i fancy, Reform seem strong in East London. If they can break down Labs totemic Barking hold it gets interesting in East London next time
Warrington - Lab defence.
Will Labour's 59% last time in the Merseyside shadow hold on vs Reform? Probably yeah. Lab hold
Consider how much time and how many defeats it took for Lib and Lab to mostly stop firing at each other.
But Nigel Farage just IS a Number Two.
If there is it would help the Conservatives. Because lest we forget, that is what they are.
Plus the fact not all the support of either would accept a merger. Not an easy situation.
Hope that hasn't jinxed things.
I am not impressed - especially as the meaning is substantially changed. Compare for instance Secession Church with secession church (of which there are/were a number in Scotland).
https://kentandsurreybylines.co.uk/politics/local-government/inside-the-turquoise-tornado-reform-uks-tumultuous-first-90-days-running-kent/
Video based on this piece, from vlogger Bowlerhat Man, who has been tracking Reform local authorities in detail (25 minutes):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMlzba6134o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5kXCdzt_us
Downing Street has just issued its readout of today’s cabinet meeting on Gaza.
Here is the key extract.
Turning to recognition, the prime minister said it had been this government’s longstanding position that recognition of a Palestinian state was an inalienable right of the Palestinian people and that we would recognise a Palestinian state as part of a process to peace and a two state solution.
He said that because of the increasingly intolerable situation in Gaza and the diminishing prospect of a peace process towards a two state solution, now was the right time to move this position forward. He said that the UK will recognise the state of Palestine in September, before UNGA, unless the Israeli government takes substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza, reaches a ceasefire, makes clear there will be no annexation in the West Bank, and commits to a long-term peace process that delivers a two state solution. He reiterated that there is no equivalence between Israel and Hamas and that our demands on Hamas remain, that they must release all the hostages, sign up to a ceasefire, accept that they will play no role in the government of Gaza, and disarm.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/jul/29/uk-politics-latest-news-cabinet-keir-starmer-nigel-farage-online-safety-act
At the moment, Lib Dem areas seem relatively immune to Farage's charms in that they are already the established "none of the above" choice. If Reform hoovered up the Tories more fully, it could be another story. But, just now, LDs will just be be happy to see a split right wing vote in these places.
You could probably stop/start stamping, folding and welding - within limits.
The pro- Bibi PB fanbois will have a fit of the vapours!
They really are fishing for two different pools of voters. Even if the LDs drop back a bit in the south it looks like the Conservatives will benefit rather than Reform. On current polling the Conservatives have dropped back even more, so it feels like most of those 72 are pretty secure.
Doesn't really let them off the hook, does it?
The newer tabloid wisdom was "who the hell reads any paragraphs at all?"
I don't know how you can go worse than that, but we have.
We’ll make an assessment in September on how far the parties have met these steps, but no one should have a veto over our decision. So this is the way forward.
It is recognition of the PLA as the legitimate government of Palestine.