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It turns out Nadine Dorries was wrong – politicalbetting.com
It turns out Nadine Dorries was wrong – politicalbetting.com
I know it is gauche to keep on pointing out your successful tips but back in February I advised PBers to back Kemi Badenoch be Tory leader on the 21st of June 2025 at the stonking odds of 1/12 based on the missive of Nadine Dorries (and apologies to all those people whose lives no longer make any sense following the revelation than Nadine Dorries was wrong.)
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Our police (and I am closely related to, and acquainted with, a few) are actually remarkably respectful of, and friendly to, the population in general as long as you're not a criminal. There are plenty of countries in the world where the police are contemptuous of, or actively hostile to, the masses, but this isn't one of them.
The issue isn't the attitude of the police, it's that they have to follow the rulings of an arrogant, cynical and incompetent political class, of which our Prime Minister and his cronies are the stereotypical example, who really do want to suppress a population, or parts of it anyway, they hold in contempt.
Has to be a value bet. If she stands, the odds will tumble.
And of course, the best candidate by far.
One of the sad things about Lapland is that, unlike rural Norway, there aren’t any characterful old wooden villages, the Germans having burned everything down, and driven the population away, at the beginning of the Lapland War. Apparently in postwar years it wasn’t uncommon for locals to shake a box of matches at passing German tourists, by way of reminder.
The last of the overnight by election results is a Con hold in Swanage, Dorset. Rutland counts from 9.30
Swanage (Dorset) Council By-Election Result:
🌳 CON: 35.4% (-0.4)
➡️ RFM: 20.8% (New)
🔶 LDM: 20.8% (+12.8)
🙋 Ind: 11.7% (-7.7)
🌹 LAB: 11.3% (-19.4)
No GRN (-6.1) as previous.
Conservative HOLD.
Changes w/ 2024.
Question is- how bad do things have to get for the old blues to realise how bad they are?
I imagine PB will be quieter than usual while everyone struggles to install VPNs.
If the Conservatives aren't careful then by the time they call for help they'll already be underwater.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/17/i-hope-nadine-dorries-is-right/
He won't win in a head to head against Jenrick though.
Michael Gove, Jesse Norman, Boris Johnson and Adam Afriyie are favourites to succeed David Cameron, says MP
Three Tory MPs - Michael Gove, Jesse Norman and Adam Afriyie - and London Mayor Boris Johnson are in the frame to succeed David Cameron, a maverick fellow MP has claimed.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9829775/Michael-Gove-Jesse-Norman-Boris-Johnson-and-Adam-Afriyie-are-favourites-to-succeed-David-Cameron-says-MP.html
Heck X allows porn and I they aren't asking. BlueSky have but I suspect they pay slightly more attention to laws.
Less progress for Reform last night than recently (they might pick up in Rutland though, but then so might the LDs or Con), they arent looking quite as unstoppable. Genuine 5 party bunfighting now at local level
The government is in the hot chair and can change anything they choose.
What he didn't do was much to address the underlying mess left by Covid, the ridiculous promises on gas and the explosion in headcount in the public sector. He was steadying the ship but much more radical action was required.
Whether a shellacking in 2026 is sufficient to teach that point remains to be seen. More likely, Badenoch is in the Hauge/EdM slot, and the IDS/Corbyn is still to come
Don't have nightmares, everyone.
Or half of his Tory successors.
And those assumptions included no public sector pay increases...
More than £1.7 million was lost to benefits fraud by DWP employees in 2024/25, according to the department’s annual report, with some claims being approved even when people were not entitled to the welfare payments.
Some 25 investigations were completed into internal benefit fraud or the diversion of payments in the last financial year, with proven losses of £1,713,809.18.
https://www.thetimes.com/article/e15e8608-41ff-49e4-985e-4313224c56de?shareToken=2eb76b09c3b1ab75e0d65a6f09a17ca9
Wise not to make the attempt.
They run the show they can do it today.
They have a massive majority whats stopping them ?
Ofcom lady trying to brave it out saying that emails were very good for verification as it allowed the sites to track activity and establish age. Absolute shitshow but quite funny listening to her trying to sound upbeat about it.
It’s getting easier to imagine a world where the uniparty merges, so non entities like Hunt can try and sweep up the centre ground and continue their programme of managed decline.
So I had the Christmas Tree (also on the cake) for scale.
No dogs.
If Howard could have got that side across in public and been relaxed he would have done well but ultimately there still weren’t enough votes for the Tories at that point as Labour hadn’t lost their appeal like they did by the time Cameron came along and even then it had to be a coalition to replace Brown.
Is that not very roughly how the CDU/CSU combo works in Germany?
And also how the SNP and Plaid can work together as a pure-ish case in the UK (no North Britons are going to be standing in West Shropshire and vice versa
Tories have stemmed the bleeding a bit but Bromley will hurt as Kemi was there yesterday.
Labour have also stemmed things a bit specifically in southern Wales
LDs making steady progress in some areas and very good at holding what they have
You heard that correctly.
https://x.com/travisakers/status/1948515892813595005
Consistent with pardon bring offered in exchange for dirt in senior Democrats a look no with a Trump whitewash.
Is there a sexual act called "mon dwike"?
Heck I’ve been saying that since November so it’s hardly news
She was jailed for sex trafficking but that never happened as Epstein didn’t do anything bad otherwise Trump would never have attended the same parties and invited a pimp/sex trafficker into his social circle.
So as it’s clearly a hoax that Trump partied and socialised with a sex tracking pædo but instead partied with stand up guy Epstein, it follows that Epstein didn’t break the law and so Ghislaine couldn’t have broken the law and is thus innocent.
Either its magic money tree or the mystical reform fairy who will pay for everything.
(I see difficulties around jury selection at the very least, given Anderson's local profile.)
I spoke with Nottinghamshire Police yesterday about this case. I was asked not to go public on this matter as it may affect the trial. Why would it affect the trial? Are our judges and juries incompetent? Or is there another reason I am being asked to remain quiet.
I've spent the last 24 hours mulling over this and cannot keep quiet.
The man charged with this vile offence is an asylum seeker who has been living in Ashfield.
I have been banging on about illegal migration since I was elected. At first I was told by other MPs that I was a racist, a bigot and I should shut up.
I will not shut up and do not care about the consequences.
This government is importing rapists, sexual predators, and other vile criminals into our country.
...
(That's half of it)
https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1948022561402429459
That she is currently being 'interviewed' by Trump's former defence lawyer, in an unrecorded session, is pretty obvious in its intent.
Any testimony she might offer is, to be generous, utterly worthless.
From Ghislaine Maxwell's sentencing memo: "Taken together with the defendant's perjury in her civil deposition, her lies to Pretrial Services, and her blatant lies about her own weight while in BOP custody, the Court can fairly reject many of the defendant's complaints about her conditions of confinement. Simply put, the defendant lies when it suits her."
https://x.com/MeidasTouch/status/1948421427105034639
If not then Stride or Jenrick would likely be the next leader, remember when IDS was removed it was his Shadow Chancellor Michael Howard made leader by coronation and Stride now holds that role. If Stride did not stand, Hunt might make a third leadership bid but Stride would be most likely to get ex Badenoch and ex Cleverly backing Tory MPs behind him if Kemi was removed to keep out Jenrick.
Stride or Hunt would be the
most likely to hold the 2024
Sunak Conservative vote too.
Burghart is one of the few heavyweights in the Shadow Cabinet and is one to watch longer term
Coming on September 12th: The Re-Henge of Spinal Tap.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70DDf9OXsFA
I've nibbled £5.
There are none.
There are a couple of things that are simply untrue eg "Our police ferry in Antifa to protest against genuinely concerned residents...". That is not directly relevant to the case.
but also in addition to "this man is an asylum seeker", and your quote is talking about asylum seekers - a link is how anyone who listens regularly to Lee will perhaps understand it.
As I say, I'm glad I don't have to make a weighted judgement with consequences.
His tax changes were, net a significant tax rise.
The reason we are in a mess is because we spend too much, and have the triple lock that guarantees we always will.
Her opponents could rename it the Prittiwave, were she to stand.
Also, does he ever comment about white working class rapists?
The question: Will Reform win the next election? Is essentially a betting one. Only a finite amount can be said about it. The other question: How will Reform actually govern if they win? Has infinite scope, and IMHO is an underexplored subject both on PB and generally.
The first question is interesting. The second question could be placed in the category of 'National existential', and might affect what you back in the 'End of Civilization As We Know It' Handicap.
Some interesting by election results last evening (and one still to come today).
What conclusions can we draw?
It seems at last the Conservatives are starting to fight back against Reform but when you are holding seats in Lichfield and Swanage you are dealing with the real heartland and while the party made a little progress against the LDs in Dacorum, overall, the picture remains difficult.
Reform are still polling strongly everywhere if perhaps slightly off their post-local election levels. I don't know the extent of their ground game in any of these contests - do they have local activists, how many? Is their campaign primarily on social media for example?
I'd suggest the LDs and the Conservatives in their heartlands can run stronger local campaigns which can blunt the Reform edge somewhat.
For Labour, there's little comfort as you might expect - holding a seat in Wales is better than nothing but next year is going to be difficult.
The LDs have always picked their fights carefully and it's encouraging as a supporter to see seats held which would have been lost a decade or so ago. I suspect Reform will have the same retention problems in the 2020s the LDs had in the 2010s and earlier. Nonetheless, the rise of Reform keeps the LDs largely bottled up in their heartlands.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xt6_axtjJMs
Today's Russian newspapers reviewed in three minutes.
It shouldn't be a radical idea...
More seriously, if we are condemned by past actions to spend nearly £100 billion a year on debt interest payments, that inevitably cuts back the room for manoeuvre and add in the certainty of increased defence spending (which I frankly question) and the inevitability of the demands of an ageing population as well as care costs in general and I'm struggling to see what can be cut to make a meaningful difference.
I'm all for Land Value Taxation as you know - land isn't easy to hide unlike other forms of wealth - and I would rather that than a wealth tax though I can see the advantages of a property value tax if we are going to rebadge Council Tax and make it a more relevant measure fir funding local services (the question of who funds social care and how is another can of worms).
Bromley was quite interesting in that in the Bromley and Biggin Hill seat last year, Reform slightly outperformed their national polling and last night they..... slightly outperformed their national polling figure.
Suggests B and BH will be a very tightly fought seat, perhaps a Con hold very narrow favourite (Orpington has slightly stronger Reform start so probably falls first) and Bromley BC looks a fascinating scrap next year - NoC favourite?
What is possible if RefUK get a majority, and the leader (Farage or other) goes rogue with Orders in Council? What could the Lords do?
One of Trump's proposed tactics was to get the elected chamber to put itself into voluntary recess so that he could do a lot of appointments in the absence of a ratification process. He already appointed "temporary" people to types of post who in theory did not need normal checks (eg Elon Musk's 130 days), or changed the organisation by changing terms of operation of departments (eg I think that was how DOGE became institutionalised).
He appoint Alina Habba as a "Interim US Attorney for NJ", and her 6 months ran out - as she was not confirmed by the local bench (vote amongst NJ judges said no) never got the "Blue Slip" to move to ratification, since it needs to be signed by one of the local Senators, and both are Dems and would not do it. But in a different case, another 6 month post was renewed (similar post in Upstate NY) because the local judges did not hold their vote immediately, so Trump just reappointed him as temporary for a further 6 months.
https://www.syracuse.com/news/2025/07/trump-reappoints-top-prosecutor-for-upstate-ny-after-judges-dump-him-report.html
How secure is our system against such manipulation?
What could Project 2025 look like in the UK?
https://news.sky.com/story/us-judge-rejects-justice-department-bid-to-unseal-epstein-grand-jury-materials-13400791
And that's just the stuff that went to the grand jury.
Rabble rousing is a piece of piss of course, any prick can do it
Some time ago he asked questions about a particular hotel with certain people staying in it (not sure of his exact terms), and reverse ferreted when they turned out by Sri Lankans working for the NHS. But the point was he could have got one of his staff members to phone up and ask - but he put his oar in publicly instead.
I do wonder if there is a risk he could bite off more than he can chew.