politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation test a constituency specific question in its new

antifrank said:

Odd that Lord Ashcroft finds rises in Lib Dem support (even in seats where the Lib Dems aren't in contention) when respondents are prompted to think of their constituency and Survation finds no change at all. The other figures are fairly consistent though.

NB despite all the excitement last night, the story seems to be one of Labour falling support rather than Conservative rising support. That does not seem to presage a Conservative overall majority to me. If the Tories start rising in the polls above 31%, I may revise my opinion, but not before.

The Ashcroft polls are for individual constituencies, rather than a general question. Conservatives with most seats, but no majority, is how I see it.

@jameskirkup: With 100 days to the election, this chart should scare Ed Miliband: Labour's lead always falls http://t.co/WjqBAPuSrI http://t.co/aw977Vjxl2

My view on some of the seats mentioned:

Bury North: Lab gain
Watford: Con hold
Torbay: LD hold
Reading West: Con hold
Cornwall North: LD hold
S'ton Itchen: Lab hold
Great Yarmouth: UKIP gain

Southampton Itchen is one of the very few potential Conservative gains from Labour.

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

My view on some of the seats mentioned:

Bury North: Lab gain
Watford: Con hold
Torbay: LD hold
Reading West: Con hold
Cornwall North: LD hold
S'ton Itchen: Lab hold

17/06/2014 Single (Win) 1 £ 100.00 Next General Election Constituency Betting Seat Winner - Basingstoke Conservatives 1/6 Pending

Is this one looking safe ?

UKIP were getting excited about Basingstoke when Maria Miller was experiencing problems. I think it's still safe for the Tories.

isam said:

isam said:

Here is The Sunifesto

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6299665/The-Sunifesto-in-full.html

One of the headlines from the sun readers manifesto is that they want less political game playing and more honesty/straight answers

Who can argue with that? Of course, it's double-speak. What sun readers really want is the perception of honesty from their politicians. The easiest way to achieve that is to stop buying the sun.

It's cognitive dissonance.

Like wanting all the paedos locked up while simultaneously sexualising young girls. It's a kind of psychological masochism thing that the sun (and daily mail) exploits very effectively.

JackW said:

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 13th January Projection) :

Con 300 (NC) .. Lab 266 (-3) .. LibDem 34 (-2) .. SNP 22 (+3) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 5 (+2) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 26 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

It's interesting to note that although Jack has one of the lowest forecasts for Labour seats, i.e. 266, with him expecting the SNP to win only 22 seats in Scotland, compared with a total of between 32 - 41 seats as forecast by Elections etc, Election Forecast and indeed Sporting Index. Were they to be proved correct North of the Border, this would mean Labour losing between a further 8-16 seats approximately, leaving them even further adrift of the Tories.

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

My view on some of the seats mentioned:

Bury North: Lab gain
Watford: Con hold
Torbay: LD hold
Reading West: Con hold
Cornwall North: LD hold
S'ton Itchen: Lab hold

17/06/2014 Single (Win) 1 £ 100.00 Next General Election Constituency Betting Seat Winner - Basingstoke Conservatives 1/6 Pending

Is this one looking safe ?

Last year I stuck a tenner on UKIP winning Basingstoke.

I don't think it will be a winner.

The Lorelei of the Left - will they lure the two Eds to their doom?

What Greek politics teaches the Labour party: there is an alternative
Insisting on Tina, ‘there is no alternative’, brought down the once mighty Pasok. It could do the same in the UK

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/27/uk-austerity-greece-parallels-labour-toxic-eliteness?CMP=share_btn_tw

Alanbrooke said:

audreyanne said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

A couple of the polls yesterday had the Tories edging up to 34. Whilst I agree with antifrank that the overall driving force is the continuing Labour decline that is worth keeping an eye on.

The real question is how far Labour can fall. Labour were supposed to be assured of a much higher score than last time as a result of the red liberals who have given them a lead for most of this Parliament. Now some of them seemed to have moved on to the Greens (not back to the Lib Dems unfortunately) as they join the many other groups disillusioned by Ed.

I would expect the Tory vote to fall from the last time by 1 or 2 percent. If they are to be comfortably the largest party they need Labour to go sub 30. This is starting to look possible although there is a very long way to go. If I was betting the house on it I would still say Labour largest party with NOM. But it is getting closer.

By the time we get to the GE I'd expect the Tory vote to go up by 3-5% based on soft kippers holding their noses. Labour is drifting down and may yet go sub 30 %. However we're still on for a HP and I'd say Cons largest vote share and probably most seats.

I agree the tories are favourite to get the most votes. Not so sure about the most seats though. So much depends on Scotland for that.

I seem to recall that Mike has a bet Tories most votes, Labour most seats. I have a concern that we might be hearing about that for as long as we have been about Obama.

Really the Tories should be walking this election,

Not really. Several years of austerity and a coalition government are not an obvious springboard for outright victory. That the Conservatives on latest polling are within a shout of clear blue water says more about Labour and the LibDems than what is going on to their right.

Any old excuse to cover up failure. There's little doubt that if Cameron had treated his natural consitituency with a bit more respect instead of playing to the gallery he'd be starting this campaign from a much higher vote share.

I agree.

JohnO said:

4Q GDP 0.5%, down from 0.7%

Steady progress, but perhaps would have hoped for slightly better in the final quarter?

Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep)
27/01/2015 09:12
Cracking idea for TV debate Cam may go for: Just him with Amjad to represent all other parties, because he has belonged to so many of them!

UK economy grew by 0.5% in the final three months of last year, Office for National Statistics estimates. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30999206

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

My view on some of the seats mentioned:

Bury North: Lab gain
Watford: Con hold
Torbay: LD hold
Reading West: Con hold
Cornwall North: LD hold
S'ton Itchen: Lab hold

17/06/2014 Single (Win) 1 £ 100.00 Next General Election Constituency Betting Seat Winner - Basingstoke Conservatives 1/6 Pending

Is this one looking safe ?

Last year I stuck a tenner on UKIP winning Basingstoke.

I don't think it will be a winner.

If Basingstoke was on the East coast I'd back UKIP there too.

Pong said:

isam said:

isam said:

Here is The Sunifesto

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6299665/The-Sunifesto-in-full.html

One of the headlines from the sun readers manifesto is that they want less political game playing and more honesty/straight answers

Who can argue with that? Of course, it's double-speak. What sun readers really want is the perception of honesty from their politicians. The easiest way to achieve that is to stop buying the sun.

It's cognitive dissonance.

Like wanting all the paedos locked up while simultaneously sexualising young girls. It's a kind of psychological masochism thing that the sun (and daily mail) exploits very effectively.

I've had some success on the doorstep with people who say we're all lobby fodder and just vote on party lines, I say that I'm prepared to defy the whips if I disagree with them but add "But I'll defy you too if you don't persuade me - I'll listen to you, think about it, discuss it with you, and then either vote as you want or explain why I won't". People are initially taken aback but on the whole they quite like it because it breaks through the miasma of standard replies. I did get one person who said it was my duty to vote as constituents want, regardless of whether I agreed with it - but only one.

isam said:

Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep)
27/01/2015 09:12
Cracking idea for TV debate Cam may go for: Just him with Amjad to represent all other parties, because he has belonged to so many of them!

Well, it beats explaining where Nigel's £3billion for the NHS is coming from......(that's his job, isn't it?

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

My view on some of the seats mentioned:

Bury North: Lab gain
Watford: Con hold
Torbay: LD hold
Reading West: Con hold
Cornwall North: LD hold
S'ton Itchen: Lab hold

17/06/2014 Single (Win) 1 £ 100.00 Next General Election Constituency Betting Seat Winner - Basingstoke Conservatives 1/6 Pending

Is this one looking safe ?

Last year I stuck a tenner on UKIP winning Basingstoke.

I don't think it will be a winner.

If Basingstoke was on the East coast I'd back UKIP there too.

It was shortly after I collected my winnings on Maria Miller quitting the cabinet.

Watching Sky News they think Middlesbrough might be a Tory gain.

They say it is a tipping point - Sky News Calculates hat the Tories need this seat for an overall majority.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

My view on some of the seats mentioned:

Bury North: Lab gain
Watford: Con hold
Torbay: LD hold
Reading West: Con hold
Cornwall North: LD hold
S'ton Itchen: Lab hold

17/06/2014 Single (Win) 1 £ 100.00 Next General Election Constituency Betting Seat Winner - Basingstoke Conservatives 1/6 Pending

Is this one looking safe ?

Last year I stuck a tenner on UKIP winning Basingstoke.

I don't think it will be a winner.

If Basingstoke was on the East coast I'd back UKIP there too.

It was shortly after I collected my winnings on Maria Miller quitting the cabinet.

Watching Sky News they think Middlesbrough might be a Tory gain.

They say it is a tipping point - Sky News Calculates hat the Tories need this seat for an overall majority.

I'm Green Tory Maj, but don't really think it's going to happen.

audreyanne said:

Fenster said:

Labour polling 30%, just 1% higher than in GE2010, after nearly five years of austerity under an unpopular Tory-led government. And here's the kicker - their other big rival (the Lib Dems) are in government too, so to fail to get cut-through must be extremely disappointing.

For context, if Cameron had been polling this four months out from a GE in 2010, the Tories would've got shot of him.

Absolutely. There are rich pickings to be had over the current Labour / LibDem shares, although sadly OGH seems to be avoiding them.

Pong said:

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:

A Conservative overall majority is a massive ask. To anyone interested in betting on that I'd recommend taking a look at the sorts of seats they'd need to take from Labour to do that.

You can (still) get much better odds than 5/1 on quite a few of these:

https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/

That's an interesting blogpost and quite well reasoned.

Is that your blog Casino?

It's looking dated: nearly 3 months, and many polls, later ...

AndyJS said:

audreyanne said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:

A Conservative overall majority is a massive ask. To anyone interested in betting on that I'd recommend taking a look at the sorts of seats they'd need to take from Labour to do that.

You can (still) get much better odds than 5/1 on quite a few of these:

https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/

Hampstead will be interesting, I think the mansion tax and Greens could see the Conservatives home here.

Me too. Glenda is worried. Notwithstanding my previous posts there are some Labour London seats that are vulnerable.

Glenda is standing down. The new candidate is Tulip Siddiq, who I think is granddaughter to the former prime minister of Bangladesh.

Yes, sorry, she is indeed. She's worried about the seat being lost and I think it's a real possibility. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/02/glenda-jackson-london-labour-mps-opposed-mansion-tax

You are more than welcome to start your own blog and share your own remarkable insight and analysis on it.

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

My view on some of the seats mentioned:

Bury North: Lab gain
Watford: Con hold
Torbay: LD hold
Reading West: Con hold
Cornwall North: LD hold
S'ton Itchen: Lab hold

17/06/2014 Single (Win) 1 £ 100.00 Next General Election Constituency Betting Seat Winner - Basingstoke Conservatives 1/6 Pending

Is this one looking safe ?

Last year I stuck a tenner on UKIP winning Basingstoke.

I don't think it will be a winner.

If Basingstoke was on the East coast I'd back UKIP there too.

UKIP Hampshire is in disarray, watch the media.

Major splits in Portsmouth (Denny left) and in Fareham.

MaxPB said:

Given that it is construction output that has dragged down the overall figure I think these will be revised upwards over time.

Sorry, I don't follow, please explain.

The detail shows a 0.6% GDP rise excluding oil and gas, so oil and gas output fell enough in the final quarter to dent the overall figure.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

My view on some of the seats mentioned:

Bury North: Lab gain
Watford: Con hold
Torbay: LD hold
Reading West: Con hold
Cornwall North: LD hold
S'ton Itchen: Lab hold

17/06/2014 Single (Win) 1 £ 100.00 Next General Election Constituency Betting Seat Winner - Basingstoke Conservatives 1/6 Pending

Is this one looking safe ?

Last year I stuck a tenner on UKIP winning Basingstoke.

I don't think it will be a winner.

If Basingstoke was on the East coast I'd back UKIP there too.

UKIP Hampshire is in disarray, watch the media.

Major splits in Portsmouth (Denny left) and in Fareham.

Goodo, I've backed the Tories in Portsmouth North. 1-2 looked big.

BannedInParis said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Lorelei of the Left - will they lure the two Eds to their doom?

What Greek politics teaches the Labour party: there is an alternative
Insisting on Tina, ‘there is no alternative’, brought down the once mighty Pasok. It could do the same in the UK

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/27/uk-austerity-greece-parallels-labour-toxic-eliteness?CMP=share_btn_tw

There's a lot of good, meaty stuff in there. But the ending

"Just like Pasok, Labour has spent decades under the influence of Tina: the idea that “there is no alternative”, either in how to run an economy or how to run a social democratic party. The rise of Syriza shows how that rule can be broken. "

Syriza have not shown that they can run an economy. They have a great opportunity to show that there really IS no alternative.

Agree its persuasively written.

To me the question is of 'the dog that did not bark' - when Hollande was elected in France promising to 'end austerity' old ladies were trampled underfoot in Ed's rush to get the Eurostar to Paris and stand shoulder to shoulder with Comrade Hollande.

Under a similar platform the Syriza election has been met with a deathly silence, other than a whine about Cameron 'playing politics' about, er 'politics'.......

peter_from_putney said:

MaxPB said:

Given that it is construction output that has dragged down the overall figure I think these will be revised upwards over time.

Sorry, I don't follow, please explain.

ONS measurement of constructions is notoriously poor, taking the first estimate only in 2013 would have resulted in a 5% contraction in the industry, over time that was revised up to around 3% growth YoY. They haven't figured out how to reliably collect data on construction output in such a short period of time, I know a lot of people would just prefer it to be excluded from the preliminary figures and just added to the final figure which will be released three months down the line. Our "triple dip" was almost entirely down to this ONS bungling of construction figures. The nation almost talked itself into a very real recession because of it.

scotslass said:

Posters from south of the borde should understand the the Telgraph branch office in Scotland is not just right wing and bigoted like their English colleagues but right wing , bigoted and makes things up.

So the Swinney quotes are fabrications?

Indigo said:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/01/27/survation-test-a-constituency-specific-question-in-its-new-mirror-poll-and-get-a-slightly-different-outcome/

Independent Greece and Syriza have little in common other than their view on the bailout, Independent Greece sits in the same group as the Tories in the European Parliament. That Alexis Tsipras has chosen to do a deal with them rather than the leftist Potami who favour a less confrontational approach to the troika is telling. It shows that he has no intention of blinking first in his negations with the IMF, the rest of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the European Commission

Time to be in dollars or pounds ?

Ed Conway in the Times points out why Greece is in a mess. The country’s legal code is riddled with anti-competitive regulations. Unwilling to scrap supply-side reforms and burn the red tape. It remains deeply uncompetitive. It has spent much of the past decade substituting debt for productive economic growth. THe new government actually supports these uncompetitive regulations.
And because it wants to stay in the Euro means there is no way out - given that other countries are not going to make themselves as uncompetitive as Greece if they can help it.

AndyJS said:

My view on some of the seats mentioned:

Bury North: Lab gain
Watford: Con hold
Torbay: LD hold
Reading West: Con hold
Cornwall North: LD hold
S'ton Itchen: Lab hold
Great Yarmouth: UKIP gain

I think the LibDems will lose Cornwall North and Torbay. But they'll hold Cambridge.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

My view on some of the seats mentioned:

Bury North: Lab gain
Watford: Con hold
Torbay: LD hold
Reading West: Con hold
Cornwall North: LD hold
S'ton Itchen: Lab hold

17/06/2014 Single (Win) 1 £ 100.00 Next General Election Constituency Betting Seat Winner - Basingstoke Conservatives 1/6 Pending

Is this one looking safe ?

Last year I stuck a tenner on UKIP winning Basingstoke.

I don't think it will be a winner.

If Basingstoke was on the East coast I'd back UKIP there too.

UKIP Hampshire is in disarray, watch the media.

Major splits in Portsmouth (Denny left) and in Fareham.

Any spill over to Eastleigh?

Back at the start of October the Tories had three consecutive YouGov leads - something they haven't achieved since. If we get such a pattern now then you could start to see movement in the markets.

TheWatcher said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep)
27/01/2015 09:12
Cracking idea for TV debate Cam may go for: Just him with Amjad to represent all other parties, because he has belonged to so many of them!

Cam really is the only show in town - Kippers just can't stop talking about him.

Until UKIP actually produce a manifesto, that's what Kippers are happiest whining about.

Though with Farage's U turning and procrastination, they might be waiting a while.

UKIP was always likely to implode once it produced actual policies rather than being NOTA. David Cameron could have made sport of that in the debates, had he not taken aim at his own foot.

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Back at the start of October the Tories had three consecutive YouGov leads - something they haven't achieved since. If we get such a pattern now then you could start to see movement in the markets.

I still think Conservative-minded punters get the blue tinted specs on far too readily to good news in the polls - Conservative majority was far too short for yonks, and a big lay back in 2012.

Yep.

Ed may be crap, but he's less awful than Gordon. That's Gordon who substantially outperformed the betting markets.

I'll happily bet that the tories will win less seats, and Labour will win more than the mid-point of the Sporting Index price at 10pm the night before the election - if any reputable punter is up for it?

Scott_P said:

CarlottaVance said:

Has O'Flynn explained yet where Nigel's NHS £3billion is coming from? Or does he limit himself to talking about their former MEP who they reckoned was a baddun 7 months ago?

@iainmartin1: UKIP to fund £3bn for NHS "partly by clawing back money from health tourists." That old standby, from list headed "magic sources of money"

Well, here's one thing they're clear on!

Good for Douglas Carswell:

@DouglasCarswell UKIP voted for fracking. All establishment parties have rolled over to the wind / renewable lobby. Rent seekers wanting corporate subsidy

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jesus, that BBC Breakfast interview of Ed was so soft ball they might as well let him just do a 5 min PPB...

Bill Turnball...if if if if if I may but LLLLLLLLaaabbourrrr run NHS Wales..

Ed....When Tories ran Wales, NHS a disaster.

Bill...Ok

And that is about as probing as it got.

Pretty standard for BBC Breakfast. Not exactly Paxo territory. I don't watch it as most of the programme seems to be dedicated to interviewing personalities and actors who will, funnily enough, be shortly appearing in BBC dramas or documentaries, or did so last night.

Sorry but you are confusing that with the One Show.

Scott_P said:

CarlottaVance said:

Has O'Flynn explained yet where Nigel's NHS £3billion is coming from? Or does he limit himself to talking about their former MEP who they reckoned was a baddun 7 months ago?

@iainmartin1: UKIP to fund £3bn for NHS "partly by clawing back money from health tourists." That old standby, from list headed "magic sources of money"

Mark Reckless ‏@MarkReckless · 11m11 minutes ago
@iainmartin1 It is £5bn more for NHS, £3bn from EU budget plus £2bn by requiring new migrants to take out NHS-approved insurance for 5 years

Socrates said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheWatcher said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep)
27/01/2015 09:12
Cracking idea for TV debate Cam may go for: Just him with Amjad to represent all other parties, because he has belonged to so many of them!

Cam really is the only show in town - Kippers just can't stop talking about him.

Though with Farage's U turning and procrastination, they might be waiting a while.

Has O'Flynn explained yet where Nigel's NHS £3billion is coming from? Or does he limit himself to talking about their former MEP who they reckoned was a baddun 7 months ago?

Farage himself has already said it was from the EU membership fee, didn't he?

But O'Flynn had spent that on tax cuts already......

The party's economic spokesman Patrick O'Flynn has suggested gains from leaving the EU and cutting the aid budget would help.

But he 'spent' that money when he unveiled UKIP's plan to increase the personal allowance and cut income tax at the party conference.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30972569

peter_from_putney said:

AndyJS said:

Sky News have a projection this morning that the SNP are on course to win 53 of the 59 seats in Scotland.

If correct this would result in the LibDems losing all but one of their 11 seats and Labour losing 36 of the 41 seats they won in 2010, leaving them with a rump of 5 seats. Are Scottish cabs the same size as their London counterparts? ...... Just asking.

It would also mean that people who have been Labour voters for years have instantly lost interest in the idea of the Labour party forming a government in the UK. Where is the coherent explanation for that?

isam said:

Scott_P said:

CarlottaVance said:

Has O'Flynn explained yet where Nigel's NHS £3billion is coming from? Or does he limit himself to talking about their former MEP who they reckoned was a baddun 7 months ago?

@iainmartin1: UKIP to fund £3bn for NHS "partly by clawing back money from health tourists." That old standby, from list headed "magic sources of money"

Mark Reckless ‏@MarkReckless · 11m11 minutes ago
@iainmartin1 It is £5bn more for NHS, £3bn from EU budget plus £2bn by requiring new migrants to take out NHS-approved insurance for 5 years

So no tax cuts or increased personal allowances as promised by O'Flynn at the conference then?

Brave - 'We're scrapping tax cuts in favour of NHS spending'

Welcome to the world of hard choices.

TGOHF said:

scotslass said:

TGOHF

So Swinney "kept quiet" a change that he announced in a parliamentary statement!

It is an evens bet as to whether you know so little about Scottish politics because you just don't like the SNP or alternatively because you believe the total tripe which appears in the Daily Telegraph.

Posters from south of the borde should understand the the Telgraph branch office in Scotland is not just right wing and bigoted like their English colleagues but right wing , bigoted and makes things up. That is to say it is not a real newspaper like the English edition but a propaganda sheet; a plaything of its three or so employees.

Scotslass - as soon as the Autumn statement was announced it was plain that the SNP would have to row back on their tax hammer on the Scottish middle class - the Nats said it was a "non issue" - but now their position has collapsed and Swinney's tail is between his legs.

Not only that but he has unpatriotically deprived Holyrood of revenue by being undercut by GO - as loyal citizens of Scotland rush to move house whilst under the benign Conservative tax regime and before the pernicious SNP tax hammer comes into force.

These are the facts - pointing them out is not "bigotted"

On the DT, I don't remember anyone on PB pointing out Stephen Daisley's (no great Nat he) hatchet job on its main Scottish star ...

'The issue isn't bias -- that perennial obsession of certain Nationalists who, in symbiotic inversion of the author, see Unionist stooges behind every byline -- for Cochrane is editor and columnist on a paper known for its ardent pro-Union stance. What is objectionable about Cochrane's account of his conduct during the referendum is his open and unabashed disregard for the basic tenets of journalism. He repeatedly refers to the No campaign using the first person plural and it soon becomes clear why.'

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/303773-stephen-daisley-reviews-the-alan-cochrane-referendum-diaries/

And a particulary nice one for PBers

'It’s a pity we can’t fiddle an opinion poll nowadays; the buggers put all their results online.'

'Jenny said I should do what Darling asks. He’s in charge after all. It’s not really good journalism but what the hell does journalism matter? This is much more important.'

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/303682-stephen-daisley-picks-out-the-best-quotes-from-the-alan-cochrane-diaries/

isam said:

MikeSmithson said:

Back at the start of October the Tories had three consecutive YouGov leads - something they haven't achieved since. If we get such a pattern now then you could start to see movement in the markets.

Bookies pension funds are mugs overreacting to the last thing that happened

Did you trade politics when you were with IG?

BenM said:

That's a poor GDP growth number. Osborne misses all annual GDP growth forecasts from June 2010. Every single one. Some achievement.

Those were also poor polls for Labour last night.

At least it is growth. Perhaps you would like to compare it to the growth under Labour 2005-2010? If you can call 0.0% growth ( yes, I know, Gordon did...).

I seem to recall you work with numbers. Creative accounting wasn't it?

CarlottaVance said:

BenM said:

That's a poor GDP growth number.

Priceless!

The Press Association's take:

The annual figure is the best since 2007, before the recession, and indicates that the UK is likely to have been the world's fastest growing major economy last year.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2927595/UK-economy-2-6-growth.html#ixzz3Q13T8YDH

6 years from the crash and after scuppering the recovery that was in place in 2009-10 all Osborne can muster is a 2.6% level of growth driven yet again by services?

This is economic blitzkrieg by a clueless Tory Party, floundering after their precious plan A predictably failed, clinging desperately to a mini spike in GDP driven almost entirely by super low interest rates rather than any policy put forward by this keystone cops of a government, and it follows that the only Party promising chaos should they be allowed anywhere near the levers of power after 7th May is, yet again, the Conservative Party.

As for fastest growth in G7 claim - we await the US's Q4 number, we note how Osborne usually ends up getting downgraded a few months on (that Q3 0.7% looks ripe for a subsequent downgrade), and speeding up after all your rivals have lapped you is not a very great achievement.

"I think the debates should predominantly be about people who have a prospect of becoming prime minister"

"At the last debates they happened because I said 'whatever it takes, lets go for it, I'll sign up for anything' "

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IjLPrzLeWA