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Challenge for the SNP – politicalbetting.com
Challenge for the SNP – politicalbetting.com
This is the 5th in a series looking at the challenges and opportunities for the 7 main Great Britain parties. Today we will look at the Scottish National Party.
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Well done Rachel pt 94.
Spending like a drunken sailor on payday.
Cowed by nonentity backbenchers trying to reduce spending by even a small amount.
‘ BREAKING NEWS: More pressure on Chancellor Reeves to raise taxes/repair public finances/‘fix the foundations’ (still a work in progress, contrary to ministerial claims):
UK government borrowing rose to almost £21 billion last month, £6.6bn higher than June 2024 and the second-highest June borrowing figure since monthly records began in 1993.
City economists had forecast borrowing to increase to £16.5bn. These days when it comes to inflation, growth, borrowing and pretty much every other economic indicator ‘City economists’ are invariably over-optimistic about Labour economic policy.’
https://x.com/afneil/status/1947541763582808142?s=61
Interesting article
Sir James Cleverly, who previously served in government as the foreign secretary and home secretary, is expected to return to the front bench as part of the changes.
The leader of the opposition had been expected to make small changes to the make-up of her frontbench team in order to replace one or two shadow ministers who wanted to step down for personal reasons.
However, BBC News understands Badenoch has opted for a bigger shake-up, including bringing back former leadership rival Sir James into a high-profile role.
A party source confirmed the reshuffle to the BBC, saying: "The leader of the opposition will be making some changes to her frontbench team today.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24v0j73e75o
Also, Piastri's penalty and looking ahead to Belgium, including the last race there.
Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/belgian-grand-prix-2025-previews-and-predictions/
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/belgian-grand-prix-2025-previews-and-predictions/id1786574257?i=1000718421526
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5HwTX7N7EozCHNotCwsBSQ
Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/9c6249d9-00fd-40d9-81c7-bb275b1ff578/undercutters---f1-podcast-belgian-grand-prix-2025-previews-and-predictions
Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/07/belgian-grand-prix-2025-previews-and.html
All but one of them sent generic replies, Red Bull were the only ones who sent a genuine reply.
I may have to revise my opinion of Red Bull.
I'd not realised that Scottish nationalism is primarily associated with left wing views. That's a great contrast with England where nationalism is labelled not just right wing but far right.
Good morning, everyone.
We're not going to have an IMF bailout but our borrowing costs will go up a lot which means cutting public expenditure.
We will just see the usual "London" responses here from bigoted people with no clue about Scotland other than it is a nice piggy bank that has lots of collateral to back up their loans.
Scottish nationalism is associated with increasing public spending.
Welsh nationalism is associated with speaking Welsh.
Is this going to be an exciting thread? I might take an early walk - I am sure I will be able to hear it when 2 miles away.
Option 4 - Stay in the Union.
There seem to me to be several important areas that need more consideration. One is the prospects of renewable energy as a replacement for oil. Another is perhaps that AFAICS the SNP have been quite effective at demonstrating their incapability to run a country.
Another interesting one is the increased dependence of the Royal Navy on Scotland these days.
It becomes difficult to deny another referendum if the SNP wins a majority and a "generation" has passed, for the purposes of which I'll define as 21 years.
That means if the SNP are in pole position in 2035, about 10 years time, they'll get another shot, possibly slightly earlier, and if the 2029GE results in a UK hung parliament where their support is needed well, there's the opportunity.
It's not a manifesto breach as it's not 'an increase in income tax, NI or VAT for workers'.
Best of luck to your youngest. It's competitive, but if he has ability in engineering to match your appalling taste in clothing then he may end up as a team principal one day.
Putting it bluntly the SNP have run out of ideas. In the 2024 General Election their manifesto was FOR SCOTLAND - if you weren't for the SNP you were against Scotland. They actually deployed that line that aggressively on the doorstep!
Our problems north of the wall are practically the same as south of the wall - a broken country where the economy means jobs struggle to pay soaring bills, and services crumbling due to a lack of cash.
The SNP solution to not being able to see a dentist or no investment into roads or a lack of teachers? Independence! From what I saw last year punters have largely stopped listening to this guff - they want solutions that are little more tangible than Independence or being told you're a traitor to the flag.
My gut instinct is that they are going to struggle - a very tired incumbent party riven deeply on most issues presiding over a mess. It should be party time for challenging parties - oh yeah Labour are also a very tired incumbent party.
I think we're going to get a chaos result. SNP losing a stack of seats, Labour not gaining as many as they demand by right, Reform picking up scores, the Tories reduced back into redoubts, LD and Green and likely others doing decently well.
I look forward to giving you updates as a candidate.
Did anyone follow GBNews coverage of Epping last week?
What line did they take and was it consistent?
(I may go back and have a background listen to "Down the pub with Lee.")
These are lessons I have been teaching my kids from day one.
Isn't Hadrian's Wall entirely in England, and the Antonine Wall entirely in Scotland?
The impression I get in F1 careers is that there are 3 ways of dealing with a high pressure, unusual lifestyle:
1 - Go up in the business, and "succeed" in finding a niche, like Psmith. *
2 - Fall in love with it.
3 - Get out after a time and do something less consuming.
Perhaps a good comparator is people who work on Superyachts as crew or engineers - there are benefits, but also sacrifices. And it needs to be "you".
* Did JRM model himself on Psmith?
(I hadn't known that Salmond argued for an independent Scotland to be outwith the EU, underlining my status as a PB Scotch expert
So I tend to agree that an independent Scotland would probably lead to better outcomes for everyone. However, it would take a lot of pain to get there.
Or perhaps there are other reasons for the comparative growth / decline in a nations fortunes - but why not give everyone a chance. Especially since the Welsh, Irish and Scots are all 'spongers'
As a result of our miserly spending and investment habits, the government is massively in debt.
See Japan for future guidance.
https://x.com/AeroPaleo/status/1947422560091517281
Internal - they row on practically every topic, from how to get independence to how to balance off the progressive groovy social policies beloved of the Sturgeon types with the fiscally austere tartan Toryism of Salmond types
External - blaming everything on the English (hi) has stopped having resonance with anyone other than their remaining core. "We're short of money because of the ENGLISH" no longer works when they're a government literally boasting about how much money they are hosepiping up the wall.
My philosophy on most things is start with the end in mind - what are we trying to achieve. They can't answer that and they don't know how to even ask questions to understand the big question. Hence the endless internal rows.
Still, could be worse. Imagine being in Alba...
I don´t think that that´s a feeling that is going away, the wider problem is that there seems to be no alternative to the played out ideas of the last three decades. Scotland is indeed crying out for something new- but what?
Scottish Labour are still the least hated alternative and to say the least they are very flawed, yet when push comes to shove, as we saw last year, I think they will form a new Holyrood administration, what happens after that is anyone´s guess, and the only surefire bet is probably the Lib Dems gaining some seats.
Assuming we don’t get another fright like Cherie then having prominent people wearing the best of British fashion is a good thing. The Princess of Wales is a good example of someone high profile acting as a good advert for the industry. Can’t rely on the PM and partner being minted and we don’t want to pay them a lot so a good solution that also avoids distasteful situations like Lord Ali buying Mrs Starmer clothes.
Who will capitalise on the pox on all your houses hate for SNP/Labour incumbents?
The fUKers. Well organised, well funded, a punchy message. A party offering Change.
NEW POLL: 73% of San Franciscans think Mayor @DanielLurie is doing a good job
https://x.com/CLutvak/status/1947334137469444536
Why i am getting Simpsons Monorail episode vibes.
They would want currency and no internal border. The UK would want a comprehensive security and defence pact so the GIUK gap was still fully secure.
In the case of Russia, which is the closest hostile power presently, Scotland also benefits from the union in the form of the resources able to be deployed in defending the northern frontier.
On one hand, AI is increasingly smart, learning fast and poses a genuine threat to vast numbers of employees in the relatively near future.
On the other hand, most people's interaction with AI is the automated phone bot asking you to say in a few words why you are calling and then failing to comprehend you at a rather basic level.
Could AI save Dorzet Council a net £27m? Sure. Will it? No.
https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/economics/article/rachel-reeves-will-need-to-face-up-to-fantasists-on-both-sides-wgzjsvlqf
Not that the Conservative MP referenced is any more in touch with fiscal reality.
Everybody told me that if we left the EU the Union was DOOOOMMMMMED.
Just like we'd have five million unemployed, empty supermarket shelves, a house price crash, nobody would ever want to ally with us, etc. etc. etc.
We may not have taken every opportunity since leaving the EU, but it's always a pleasure to point out Remainer lies.
When the man was hired in early 2023, he provided the chippie with a national insurance number, proof of student loan payments and housing benefit receipts from the local council. He also provided a photocopy of his British passport and was paid via pay as you earn (PAYE) through HMRC.
The business did not see the original copy of the man’s passport, which its owner, Mark Sullivan, said was a “clerical error”.
The Home Office alleges the man was using another person’s identity and the passport had a name that was not his real one. All of the other documents he provided matched the name on the passport.
Presumably, whoever's identity had been stolen would have appeared to have had two jobs (or possibly one job which they shouldn't have had because of benefits etc.). Always going to get found out.
Not sure I have much sympathy for the owner.
Brexit demonstrated that economic self interest is insufficient glue if voters can be persuaded to gamble.
Any negotiations post any independence vote would be messy, and likely costly for both parties. But that alone wouldn't prevent a vote.
The rather grim irony for Scotland, the second most pro-EU area of the UK proper, was that in 2014 all possible results led to them leaving the EU.
Also, Newcastle is further west than Southampton.
In the case of issuing parking permits, the whole thing could be automated. To the point of no humans.
#pedanticbetting.com
The problem is that even Starmer won't last forever and Scotland's fiscal position has deteriorated since 2014 as have its prospects. North Sea oil is in danger of becoming income negative as the clean up and close up costs accrue. The resistance to opening up new fields both accelerates and accentuates that trend.
The Barnett formula bonanza is also something of a poisoned chalice. It helps the SNP buy popularity in Scotland like no University fees (although flocks of chickens are coming home to roost there) and slightly more generous benefits but it means Scotland has to acknowledge that Independence comes with an immediate price in the form of even more taxation or substantial public sector spending cuts. Our share of the UK deficit of £150bn is not insignificant either. I fear borrowing for an independent Scotland would be prohibitively expensive.
For me, the SNP are caught in a cleft stick. To get independence they need to grow and boost the Scottish economy and its tax base. To do this they would need to reverse many of the policies that their base likes, higher public spending, a bloated public sector, higher taxes and more regulation. Kate Forbes might be up for such a platform but can she win either the leadership or an election with it? I don't think so.
There is at least one vicus that developed north of, rather than south of, the wall and there are some indications that there was a major rebellion to the south at the time it was being built. So it may have been designed to provide a secure location for soldiers policing a wider area.
Although I've always liked the suggestion it was actually built to keep the legionnaires busy after Hadrian's decision to stop conquering new lands left them with nothing else to do and he was worried that would lead to trouble.
If there were an SNP equivalent of Asterix' village as a final fastness, where would it be?
(I think the English one would be he Isle of Thanet, perhaps.)
I was reading one economic article about the Roman Empire, which estimated Senatorial incomes at an average £9m, in 150, and knightly incomes at £720,000. The rest were on about £800 a year, per capita.
That all changed after 1800.
Britain’s economy would be tipped into a year-long recession, with at least 500,000 jobs lost and GDP around 3.6% lower, following a vote to leave the EU, new Treasury analysis launched today by the Prime Minister and Chancellor shows.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/britain-to-enter-recession-with-500000-uk-jobs-lost-if-it-left-eu-new-treasury-analysis-shows
Then there were the predictions about tax rises and spending cuts:
In the latest of a series of government warnings about the consequences of a vote to leave, Mr Osborne shared a stage with his Labour predecessor, Lord Darling, setting out £30bn of "illustrative" tax rises and spending cuts, including a 2p rise in the basic rate of income tax and a 3p rise in the higher rate.
They also said spending on the police, transport and local government could take a 5% cut and ring-fenced NHS budget could be "slashed", along with education, defence and policing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36534192
On a more comical level there were predictions of 'no strawberries in the supermarkets'.
I think that one was comprehensively debunked on PB.
As long as the SNP keep winning Holyrood elections, they remain in a good position to argue for a referendum. Its now nearly 11 years since indy ref and next year's 16 year old voters will have little recollection of that vote. Both Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling are no longer with us, we are definitely nearing the generation passing.
I can't see Starmer agreeing to a referendum whilst he has 40-odd Slab MPs to rely on, but the bare facts are 11 years on yes are still polling somewhere near 45% (or above). I think tipping point will come if yes start polling above 55% for a year or more.
Next year could be a bloodbath for the Scottish Tories, Reform look to be heading for a dozen + MSPs, without even naming many of their candidates.
I don't think JS will want to serve a full term (if he wins), could be a chance for Kate Forbes, Angus Robertson or Stephen Flynn to lead this coming parliament
Obsessive, toi?