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The matter of Britain’s franchise – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,576
edited 2:35PM in General
The matter of Britain’s franchise – politicalbetting.com

NEW @StrategyMerlin @itvnews 16-17 yr-old polling ?VI: Lab 1st on 33%, Ref 2nd on 20%?Economy, health, immigration top 3 issues, Israel/Gaza ahead of climate?Corbyn most popular politician?49% don't think they should be able to vote?Only 18% say they'd definitely vote

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,718
    edited 2:37PM
    SandyRentool said:

    How on earth can it take 10 years to start running a through train from the UK to Germany?

    And somehow this is being celebrated.

    This is a joke right? Oh god, no, its another agreement to explore getting an agreement for trains to run in next 10 years....shakes head.

    Even the e-gates, isn't all UK e-passport holders can, its a small subset will be able to with everybody at some unspecified point in the future. This is trivial stuff to agree.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,718
    edited 2:39PM
    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,009
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    No. He never thinks anything through

    Also Big Nigel is right in that vid. Reform are ALREADY in 2nd place with the kids. If Reform focus on those voters they could easily come first - Farage has more TikTok followers than all other UK pols combined. Starmer is such a fucking hapless stupid dork

    FPT I said this:

    Starmer is horribly bad at every single aspect of politics. Strategic, tactical, retail. He cannot orate and he has zero ideas, he doesn't understand party management and he is a terrlble negotiator, his charisma is negative and he's awful on TV

    Setting aside Liz Truss (as being sui generis) he is without question the worst prime minister of my lifetime - in terms of the skillset he brings to the job. He has NO skillset
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,060
    Ah, as mentioned FPT:

    49% of 16-17 year-olds don't think they should have the vote
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    Rayner no doubt but I do not think this is the bonanza Labour think it is

    I doubt many will vote and expect those that do will favour the greens and reform
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,696
    edited 2:45PM
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SandyRentool said:

    How on earth can it take 10 years to start running a through train from the UK to Germany?

    And somehow this is being celebrated.

    This is a joke right? Oh god, no, its another agreement to explore getting an agreement for trains to run in next 10 years....shakes head.

    Even the e-gates, isn't all UK e-passport holders can, its a small subset will be able to with everybody at some unspecified point in the future. This is trivial stuff to agree.
    OK. If you think it’s that simple, answer this - what font should be used for the label on the door of the toilet in the staff area of the sales kiosk for the tickets?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,683
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SandyRentool said:

    How on earth can it take 10 years to start running a through train from the UK to Germany?

    And somehow this is being celebrated.

    This is a joke right? Oh god, no, its another agreement to explore getting an agreement for trains to run in next 10 years....shakes head.

    Even the e-gates, isn't all UK e-passport holders can, its a small subset will be able to with everybody at some unspecified point in the future. This is trivial stuff to agree.
    https://www.easypass.de/EasyPass/EN/Who_can_use_EasyPass/Who_can_use_EasyPASS_node.html

    It's the same system Australians, Koreans, Hongkongers and Taiwanese already have access to.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,266
    What about bringing back the 'run off' system for mayors?

    And, most importantly, what about STV for Parliamentary elections?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,718
    edited 2:46PM
    Malmesbury said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SandyRentool said:

    How on earth can it take 10 years to start running a through train from the UK to Germany?

    And somehow this is being celebrated.

    This is a joke right? Oh god, no, its another agreement to explore getting an agreement for trains to run in next 10 years....shakes head.

    Even the e-gates, isn't all UK e-passport holders can, its a small subset will be able to with everybody at some unspecified point in the future. This is trivial stuff to agree.
    OK. If you think it’s that simple, answer this - what font should be used for the toilet in the staff area of the sales kiosk for the tickets?
    We are pleased to annoy today that we are resetting our relationship with the EU and we have agree to set up a steering group which will explore the creation of a committee that will discuss forming a framework for getting an agreement around the use of fonts for the staff amenities all within the next 10 years.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,650
    edited 2:46PM
    The bigger change would be if automatic voter registration does actually happen .This has garnered less attention from the media but would have the bigger impact on turnout .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,791
    OldKingCole said:

    What about bringing back the 'run off' system for mayors?

    And, most importantly, what about STV for Parliamentary elections?

    I am covering that in the morning thread.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,789
    After all the electoral meddling of the last decade this was always going to happen. On top of removing FPTP from mayoral and PCCs I'd be surprised if we don’t get auto enrolment and hopefully constituency boundaries reflecting the true population not the electoral roll numbers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,791
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    Do you want him to ignore his manifesto commitment?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,718
    edited 2:50PM
    With Starmer deals always agreements to get agreements at unspecified time in the future. He does realise he isn't paid via billable hours anymore?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,525
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    Do you want him to ignore his manifesto commitment?
    Hang on, the Labour manifesto had commitments?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,321
    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    No. He never thinks anything through

    Also Big Nigel is right in that vid. Reform are ALREADY in 2nd place with the kids. If Reform focus on those voters they could easily come first - Farage has more TikTok followers than all other UK pols combined. Starmer is such a fucking hapless stupid dork

    FPT I said this:

    Starmer is horribly bad at every single aspect of politics. Strategic, tactical, retail. He cannot orate and he has zero ideas, he doesn't understand party management and he is a terrlble negotiator, his charisma is negative and he's awful on TV

    Setting aside Liz Truss (as being sui generis) he is without question the worst prime minister of my lifetime - in terms of the skillset he brings to the job. He has NO skillset
    Quite extraordinary then, that he became leader of his party, and then Prime Minister, having persuaded you to vote for his party.

    I simply cannot account for how this complete nullity, a politician of such outstanding awfulness that he makes even Liz Truss almost look good, had you fooled.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,282
    The best tactic to create difficulties for Labour over votes for 16 and 17-year-olds would be to add an amendment making it for UK and Irish citizens only.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,321
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Ah, as mentioned FPT:

    49% of 16-17 year-olds don't think they should have the vote

    So why should they get a vote on the matter ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,718
    Is all this special e-gate agreement stuff bollocks anyway, as everywhere is going fully egates in the near future anyway.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,019
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SandyRentool said:

    How on earth can it take 10 years to start running a through train from the UK to Germany?

    And somehow this is being celebrated.

    This is a joke right? Oh god, no, its another agreement to explore getting an agreement for trains to run in next 10 years....shakes head.

    Even the e-gates, isn't all UK e-passport holders can, its a small subset will be able to with everybody at some unspecified point in the future. This is trivial stuff to agree.
    Those of us who live outwith London have to change trains, and often stations, even to get to Paris.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,302
    FPT but surprisingly on topic.
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Malmesbury said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    squareroot2 said:

    So if paying tax is a reason for loweting the voting age then let babies vote.

    Let those who are in paid employment vote.

    Unemployed and pensioners, sorry, only if you get a job.
    You are Oliver Cromwell and I claim my £200 a year of freehold property.
    @BartholomewRoberts has an irrational issue with pensioners

    Whilst I have long held the view that working pensioners should pay NI, I would also comment that most pensioners are tax payers and as such are entitled to vote

    Indeed I not sure why anyone would think otherwise, and to be fair apart from @BartholomewRoberts I haven't heard anyone else suggest they shouldn't
    It was a joke, in reply to the previous comment.

    I don't actually believe in disenfranchising the unemployed or pensioners, and I would hope that was obvious. I believe in universal suffrage.

    I have no qualms with pensioners. I just think pensioners and working people should be taxed at the same rate. And that wages for working people should go up at least as much as for those on benefits. Do you disagree with either of those two views?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,009
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    No. He never thinks anything through

    Also Big Nigel is right in that vid. Reform are ALREADY in 2nd place with the kids. If Reform focus on those voters they could easily come first - Farage has more TikTok followers than all other UK pols combined. Starmer is such a fucking hapless stupid dork

    FPT I said this:

    Starmer is horribly bad at every single aspect of politics. Strategic, tactical, retail. He cannot orate and he has zero ideas, he doesn't understand party management and he is a terrlble negotiator, his charisma is negative and he's awful on TV

    Setting aside Liz Truss (as being sui generis) he is without question the worst prime minister of my lifetime - in terms of the skillset he brings to the job. He has NO skillset
    Quite extraordinary then, that he became leader of his party, and then Prime Minister, having persuaded you to vote for his party.

    I simply cannot account for how this complete nullity, a politician of such outstanding awfulness that he makes even Liz Truss almost look good, had you fooled.
    Recall the alternatives

    Also, I agree with @SeanT, the brilliant Spectator writer, when he wrote on this subject. There were tentative reasons for some timid hope that Starmer might be OK, at first

    Are we allowed to link to the Spec? Not sure. If we are then I shall
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,718
    edited 2:59PM
    Fairliered said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SandyRentool said:

    How on earth can it take 10 years to start running a through train from the UK to Germany?

    And somehow this is being celebrated.

    This is a joke right? Oh god, no, its another agreement to explore getting an agreement for trains to run in next 10 years....shakes head.

    Even the e-gates, isn't all UK e-passport holders can, its a small subset will be able to with everybody at some unspecified point in the future. This is trivial stuff to agree.
    Those of us who live outwith London have to change trains, and often stations, even to get to Paris.
    I am not getting on a train to Germany anyway, it's an hours flight.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,302
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    Do you want him to ignore his manifesto commitment?
    Considering he broke his commitments already when he raised NICs, that is moot.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,718
    edited 3:03PM
    British spies and special forces exposed in Afghan data leak
    Identities of agents and elite soldiers are among UK’s most closely guarded state secrets

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/17/british-spies-and-special-forces-exposed-afghan-data-leak/

    Who the f##k decided putting UK spies and SAS members in an excel spreadsheet was OK
    ...sorry, i forgot, it's a witch hunt to actually discipline these morons. You have got to be absolutely brain dead to do this.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,060
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Fairliered said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SandyRentool said:

    How on earth can it take 10 years to start running a through train from the UK to Germany?

    And somehow this is being celebrated.

    This is a joke right? Oh god, no, its another agreement to explore getting an agreement for trains to run in next 10 years....shakes head.

    Even the e-gates, isn't all UK e-passport holders can, its a small subset will be able to with everybody at some unspecified point in the future. This is trivial stuff to agree.
    Those of us who live outwith London have to change trains, and often stations, even to get to Paris.
    I am not getting on a train to Germany anyway, it's an hours flight.
    DB or not DB.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,019
    nico67 said:

    The bigger change would be if automatic voter registration does actually happen .This has garnered less attention from the media but would have the bigger impact on turnout .

    The biggest positive change we could make with be compulsory voting, but with a NOTA option.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    FPT but surprisingly on topic.

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Malmesbury said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    squareroot2 said:

    So if paying tax is a reason for loweting the voting age then let babies vote.

    Let those who are in paid employment vote.

    Unemployed and pensioners, sorry, only if you get a job.
    You are Oliver Cromwell and I claim my £200 a year of freehold property.
    @BartholomewRoberts has an irrational issue with pensioners

    Whilst I have long held the view that working pensioners should pay NI, I would also comment that most pensioners are tax payers and as such are entitled to vote

    Indeed I not sure why anyone would think otherwise, and to be fair apart from @BartholomewRoberts I haven't heard anyone else suggest they shouldn't
    It was a joke, in reply to the previous comment.

    I don't actually believe in disenfranchising the unemployed or pensioners, and I would hope that was obvious. I believe in universal suffrage.

    I have no qualms with pensioners. I just think pensioners and working people should be taxed at the same rate. And that wages for working people should go up at least as much as for those on benefits. Do you disagree with either of those two views?
    I agree with your final paragraph completely
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,060
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    No. He never thinks anything through

    Also Big Nigel is right in that vid. Reform are ALREADY in 2nd place with the kids. If Reform focus on those voters they could easily come first - Farage has more TikTok followers than all other UK pols combined. Starmer is such a fucking hapless stupid dork

    FPT I said this:

    Starmer is horribly bad at every single aspect of politics. Strategic, tactical, retail. He cannot orate and he has zero ideas, he doesn't understand party management and he is a terrlble negotiator, his charisma is negative and he's awful on TV

    Setting aside Liz Truss (as being sui generis) he is without question the worst prime minister of my lifetime - in terms of the skillset he brings to the job. He has NO skillset
    Quite extraordinary then, that he became leader of his party, and then Prime Minister, having persuaded you to vote for his party.

    I simply cannot account for how this complete nullity, a politician of such outstanding awfulness that he makes even Liz Truss almost look good, had you fooled.
    Recall the alternatives

    Also, I agree with @SeanT, the brilliant Spectator writer, when he wrote on this subject. There were tentative reasons for some timid hope that Starmer might be OK, at first

    Are we allowed to link to the Spec? Not sure. If we are then I shall
    Speccie's not as gentle on the arse as Andrex.

    (Just kiddin')
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,019
    Selebian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    Do you want him to ignore his manifesto commitment?
    Hang on, the Labour manifesto had commitments?
    They had a commitment not to commit to anything.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 798
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    Rayner has.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,718
    edited 3:06PM
    The details of more than 100 British people - including spies and special forces - were included in a massive data leak that resulted in thousands of Afghans being secretly relocated to the UK.

    How much has it cost to give these people new Identities? What over f##k ups have been hidden from us over this?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,148
    OldKingCole said:

    What about bringing back the 'run off' system for mayors?

    And, most importantly, what about STV for Parliamentary elections?

    I don't know why they aren't going for proper AV for the mayoral elections. Having to second guess who will be in the top two is not a great system.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,060
    SandyRentool said:

    OldKingCole said:

    What about bringing back the 'run off' system for mayors?

    And, most importantly, what about STV for Parliamentary elections?

    I don't know why they aren't going for proper AV for the mayoral elections. Having to second guess who will be in the top two is not a great system.
    AV is rubbish. Ask Dave Cameron.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,019
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The details of more than 100 British people - including spies and special forces - were included in a massive data leak that resulted in thousands of Afghans being secretly relocated to the UK.

    How much has it cost to give these people new Identities?

    Surely the special forces are capable of looking after themselves.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,270
    Ooooh, more leak revelations. Looks like someone has unhidden some tabs on excel and it turns out the whole of the special forces and MI6 was on it.

    If the location of the animals left behind by Operation Ark is leaked then (dog) shit will hit the fan. Nothing like a Cockapoo in danger to fire up the Facebook outrage machine.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,302
    Fairliered said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The details of more than 100 British people - including spies and special forces - were included in a massive data leak that resulted in thousands of Afghans being secretly relocated to the UK.

    How much has it cost to give these people new Identities?

    Surely the special forces are capable of looking after themselves.
    And surely giving new identities to spies is par for the course?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,664
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    No. He never thinks anything through

    Also Big Nigel is right in that vid. Reform are ALREADY in 2nd place with the kids. If Reform focus on those voters they could easily come first - Farage has more TikTok followers than all other UK pols combined. Starmer is such a fucking hapless stupid dork

    FPT I said this:

    Starmer is horribly bad at every single aspect of politics. Strategic, tactical, retail. He cannot orate and he has zero ideas, he doesn't understand party management and he is a terrlble negotiator, his charisma is negative and he's awful on TV

    Setting aside Liz Truss (as being sui generis) he is without question the worst prime minister of my lifetime - in terms of the skillset he brings to the job. He has NO skillset
    Quite extraordinary then, that he became leader of his party, and then Prime Minister, having persuaded you to vote for his party.

    I simply cannot account for how this complete nullity, a politician of such outstanding awfulness that he makes even Liz Truss almost look good, had you fooled.
    Recall the alternatives

    Also, I agree with @SeanT, the brilliant Spectator writer, when he wrote on this subject. There were tentative reasons for some timid hope that Starmer might be OK, at first

    Are we allowed to link to the Spec? Not sure. If we are then I shall
    I think every single one of us has been disappointed by Starmer. Whatever our expectations - whether we thought he'd be great, good, ok-ish, perhaps not that bad, bad, terrible, the worst prime minister ever - he's managed to undershoot everyone's expectations.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,213
    I predict turnout will be higher amongst 16-17 year olds than it is now.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,060
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Fairliered said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The details of more than 100 British people - including spies and special forces - were included in a massive data leak that resulted in thousands of Afghans being secretly relocated to the UK.

    How much has it cost to give these people new Identities?

    Surely the special forces are capable of looking after themselves.
    And surely giving new identities to spies is par for the course?
    "My name is Richie Cunningham. And this is my wife... Oprah."
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,678
    SandyRentool said:

    OldKingCole said:

    What about bringing back the 'run off' system for mayors?

    And, most importantly, what about STV for Parliamentary elections?

    I don't know why they aren't going for proper AV for the mayoral elections. Having to second guess who will be in the top two is not a great system.
    SV gives Labour the greatest partisan advantage, precisely because you have to guess who will be in the final two, and so many people will guess it will be Labour, making it harder for other candidates to win.

    They want the second preferences of everyone to the left of the Tories, but they don't want a voting system that would give anyone else to the left of the Tories a chance of supplanting them. SV is that voting system.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,791
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The details of more than 100 British people - including spies and special forces - were included in a massive data leak that resulted in thousands of Afghans being secretly relocated to the UK.

    How much has it cost to give these people new Identities? What over f##k ups have been hidden from us over this?

    Thank feck I didn’t take that job with the SIS after university.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,664
    Eabhal said:

    Ooooh, more leak revelations. Looks like someone has unhidden some tabs on excel and it turns out the whole of the special forces and MI6 was on it.

    If the location of the animals left behind by Operation Ark is leaked then (dog) shit will hit the fan. Nothing like a Cockapoo in danger to fire up the Facebook outrage machine.

    I initially read this as "if the location of the animals left behind by the Ark" - and got quite excited by the potential scale of this. Finally, unicorns.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,278
    This might explain why he doesn't want it published...

    https://bsky.app/profile/wyden.senate.gov/post/3lu67bq4qq22x
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,302
    FF43 said:

    I predict turnout will be higher amongst 16-17 year olds than it is now.

    I don't. Not as a percentage of eligible voters it won't be.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,060
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    FF43 said:

    I predict turnout will be higher amongst 16-17 year olds than it is now.

    I don't. Not as a percentage of eligible voters it won't be.
    I think @FF43 was joking?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,302
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    FF43 said:

    I predict turnout will be higher amongst 16-17 year olds than it is now.

    I don't. Not as a percentage of eligible voters it won't be.
    I think @FF43 was joking?
    So was I. Mixed with a bit of Maths pedantry.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,120
    OldKingCole said:

    What about bringing back the 'run off' system for mayors?

    And, most importantly, what about STV for Parliamentary elections?

    They are bringing back SV for mayors... although they should simplify it and go with AV.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,718
    Pogacar going to win the Tour de France here.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,791
    I know self praise is no praise at all but I am impressed at the brilliance of my headline, the utter subtlety of it.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,120
    .
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    Do you want him to ignore his manifesto commitment?
    Considering he broke his commitments already when he raised NICs, that is moot.
    No, he didn't. We all knew they were going up precisely because it's the one thing Labour hadn't promised to leave alone.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,664
    bondegezou said:

    OldKingCole said:

    What about bringing back the 'run off' system for mayors?

    And, most importantly, what about STV for Parliamentary elections?

    They are bringing back SV for mayors... although they should simplify it and go with AV.
    I hesitate to bring this up - but STV for a single position - such as a mayor - is just AV. It's not wrong to describe it as STV, but it only has half of what makes typically STV interesting i.e. multi-member constituencies elected by transferable votes..
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,302
    bondegezou said:

    .

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    Do you want him to ignore his manifesto commitment?
    Considering he broke his commitments already when he raised NICs, that is moot.
    No, he didn't. We all knew they were going up precisely because it's the one thing Labour hadn't promised to leave alone.
    Employers NICs are a direct tax on employees wages, no different to fuel duty or alcohol duty being a direct tax on those goods.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,270
    edited 3:26PM
    Chuckling at the image of Ben Wallace collapsed on the floor after learning about this leak - but then the phone rings and it's Pen Farthing threatening to kill him unless he rescues a poodle from Helmand. Meanwhile Biden and Boris babble at each other.

    We need Iannucci to write it. (I know the timelines don't match up but that's not stopping some creativity).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,922
    Given Corbyn has a higher approval rating than Starmer and Kemi has higher approval than Farage with this age group it may not be a boost of significance to Labour or that bad for the Tories.

    Given you can only stand as an MP at 18 I disagree with it though

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1945818083861442738
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,690
    bondegezou said:

    OldKingCole said:

    What about bringing back the 'run off' system for mayors?

    And, most importantly, what about STV for Parliamentary elections?

    They are bringing back SV for mayors... although they should simplify it and go with AV.
    If you are going for a ranked system for single winner elections, I'd rather STV than AV, because AV doesn't remove the guessing of who'll come second.

    And without surpluses to redistribute, counting can be quite easy and rounds can be skipped, e.g. for a first round vote of:

    A. 39
    B. 31
    C. 18
    D. 7
    E. 5

    you can immediately eliminate C, D, and E as being unable to overtake B on transfers.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,641
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    No. He never thinks anything through

    Also Big Nigel is right in that vid. Reform are ALREADY in 2nd place with the kids. If Reform focus on those voters they could easily come first - Farage has more TikTok followers than all other UK pols combined. Starmer is such a fucking hapless stupid dork

    FPT I said this:

    Starmer is horribly bad at every single aspect of politics. Strategic, tactical, retail. He cannot orate and he has zero ideas, he doesn't understand party management and he is a terrlble negotiator, his charisma is negative and he's awful on TV

    Setting aside Liz Truss (as being sui generis) he is without question the worst prime minister of my lifetime - in terms of the skillset he brings to the job. He has NO skillset
    Quite extraordinary then, that he became leader of his party, and then Prime Minister, having persuaded you to vote for his party.

    I simply cannot account for how this complete nullity, a politician of such outstanding awfulness that he makes even Liz Truss almost look good, had you fooled.
    Recall the alternatives

    Also, I agree with @SeanT, the brilliant Spectator writer, when he wrote on this subject. There were tentative reasons for some timid hope that Starmer might be OK, at first

    Are we allowed to link to the Spec? Not sure. If we are then I shall
    I think every single one of us has been disappointed by Starmer. Whatever our expectations - whether we thought he'd be great, good, ok-ish, perhaps not that bad, bad, terrible, the worst prime minister ever - he's managed to undershoot everyone's expectations.
    I am not disappointed, he's doing about as well as I thought he would. I just can't generate the "twattish hysteria" about the thing he's done, like Chagos, that so inflames the aging gammons on here. I still like him though because he defended the McLibel Two.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,922
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    Do you want him to ignore his manifesto commitment?
    Considering he broke his commitments already when he raised NICs, that is moot.
    An employer is not a working person according to Labour
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,270
    edited 3:34PM
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    bondegezou said:

    .

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    Do you want him to ignore his manifesto commitment?
    Considering he broke his commitments already when he raised NICs, that is moot.
    No, he didn't. We all knew they were going up precisely because it's the one thing Labour hadn't promised to leave alone.
    Employers NICs are a direct tax on employees wages, no different to fuel duty or alcohol duty being a direct tax on those goods.
    It's indirect because it doesn't necessarily fully translate to a reduction in wages, most obviously for minimum wage workers because their wages cannot go any lower. At the top end, the vast majority of it will be passed onto lower wages though, except in the public sector.

    It probably primarily translates to reduced employment at the bottom end of the labour market, though a further tightening due to lower immigration could mitigate that. All eyes on vacancies, though there is an ongoing post-COVID trend that predates the NICs change so you're looking for a change in that trend rather than absolute numbers.

    Productivity figures are going to look good though!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,683
    Dura_Ace said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    No. He never thinks anything through

    Also Big Nigel is right in that vid. Reform are ALREADY in 2nd place with the kids. If Reform focus on those voters they could easily come first - Farage has more TikTok followers than all other UK pols combined. Starmer is such a fucking hapless stupid dork

    FPT I said this:

    Starmer is horribly bad at every single aspect of politics. Strategic, tactical, retail. He cannot orate and he has zero ideas, he doesn't understand party management and he is a terrlble negotiator, his charisma is negative and he's awful on TV

    Setting aside Liz Truss (as being sui generis) he is without question the worst prime minister of my lifetime - in terms of the skillset he brings to the job. He has NO skillset
    Quite extraordinary then, that he became leader of his party, and then Prime Minister, having persuaded you to vote for his party.

    I simply cannot account for how this complete nullity, a politician of such outstanding awfulness that he makes even Liz Truss almost look good, had you fooled.
    Recall the alternatives

    Also, I agree with @SeanT, the brilliant Spectator writer, when he wrote on this subject. There were tentative reasons for some timid hope that Starmer might be OK, at first

    Are we allowed to link to the Spec? Not sure. If we are then I shall
    I think every single one of us has been disappointed by Starmer. Whatever our expectations - whether we thought he'd be great, good, ok-ish, perhaps not that bad, bad, terrible, the worst prime minister ever - he's managed to undershoot everyone's expectations.
    I am not disappointed, he's doing about as well as I thought he would. I just can't generate the "twattish hysteria" about the thing he's done, like Chagos, that so inflames the aging gammons on here. I still like him though because he defended the McLibel Two.
    Either which cases lawyers "choose" is important, or it isn't. So long as everyone's consistent...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,321
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    No. He never thinks anything through

    Also Big Nigel is right in that vid. Reform are ALREADY in 2nd place with the kids. If Reform focus on those voters they could easily come first - Farage has more TikTok followers than all other UK pols combined. Starmer is such a fucking hapless stupid dork

    FPT I said this:

    Starmer is horribly bad at every single aspect of politics. Strategic, tactical, retail. He cannot orate and he has zero ideas, he doesn't understand party management and he is a terrlble negotiator, his charisma is negative and he's awful on TV

    Setting aside Liz Truss (as being sui generis) he is without question the worst prime minister of my lifetime - in terms of the skillset he brings to the job. He has NO skillset
    Quite extraordinary then, that he became leader of his party, and then Prime Minister, having persuaded you to vote for his party.

    I simply cannot account for how this complete nullity, a politician of such outstanding awfulness that he makes even Liz Truss almost look good, had you fooled.
    Recall the alternatives

    Also, I agree with @SeanT, the brilliant Spectator writer, when he wrote on this subject. There were tentative reasons for some timid hope that Starmer might be OK, at first

    Are we allowed to link to the Spec? Not sure. If we are then I shall
    What we have here is a failure to ... extrapolate.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,696
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Malmesbury said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SandyRentool said:

    How on earth can it take 10 years to start running a through train from the UK to Germany?

    And somehow this is being celebrated.

    This is a joke right? Oh god, no, its another agreement to explore getting an agreement for trains to run in next 10 years....shakes head.

    Even the e-gates, isn't all UK e-passport holders can, its a small subset will be able to with everybody at some unspecified point in the future. This is trivial stuff to agree.
    OK. If you think it’s that simple, answer this - what font should be used for the toilet in the staff area of the sales kiosk for the tickets?
    We are pleased to annoy today that we are resetting our relationship with the EU and we have agree to set up a steering group which will explore the creation of a committee that will discuss forming a framework for getting an agreement around the use of fonts for the staff amenities all within the next 10 years.
    You sound like a pro. What’s your rate for annoying people?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,652
    I see TSE's been to Glastonbury recently.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,120
    Cookie said:

    bondegezou said:

    OldKingCole said:

    What about bringing back the 'run off' system for mayors?

    And, most importantly, what about STV for Parliamentary elections?

    They are bringing back SV for mayors... although they should simplify it and go with AV.
    I hesitate to bring this up - but STV for a single position - such as a mayor - is just AV. It's not wrong to describe it as STV, but it only has half of what makes typically STV interesting i.e. multi-member constituencies elected by transferable votes..
    SV, not STV. SV is the system we used to have for mayors where you pick a first and a second choice, so it's like AV, but you don't do a full ranking.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,120
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    bondegezou said:

    .

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    Do you want him to ignore his manifesto commitment?
    Considering he broke his commitments already when he raised NICs, that is moot.
    No, he didn't. We all knew they were going up precisely because it's the one thing Labour hadn't promised to leave alone.
    Employers NICs are a direct tax on employees wages, no different to fuel duty or alcohol duty being a direct tax on those goods.
    You can make that argument, but everyone knew what Labour had promised. Numerous articles at the time discussed this.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,704
    HYUFD said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    Do you want him to ignore his manifesto commitment?
    Considering he broke his commitments already when he raised NICs, that is moot.
    An employer is not a working person according to Labour
    Well it’s not a tax the worker pays so Labour is correct there as the employer pays it. Now granted it’s a cost of employing someone but we aren’t in dancing on a pin head issue here
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,664
    bondegezou said:

    Cookie said:

    bondegezou said:

    OldKingCole said:

    What about bringing back the 'run off' system for mayors?

    And, most importantly, what about STV for Parliamentary elections?

    They are bringing back SV for mayors... although they should simplify it and go with AV.
    I hesitate to bring this up - but STV for a single position - such as a mayor - is just AV. It's not wrong to describe it as STV, but it only has half of what makes typically STV interesting i.e. multi-member constituencies elected by transferable votes..
    SV, not STV. SV is the system we used to have for mayors where you pick a first and a second choice, so it's like AV, but you don't do a full ranking.
    Fair enough - pay more attention in future Cookie!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,696
    Eabhal said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    bondegezou said:

    .

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    Do you want him to ignore his manifesto commitment?
    Considering he broke his commitments already when he raised NICs, that is moot.
    No, he didn't. We all knew they were going up precisely because it's the one thing Labour hadn't promised to leave alone.
    Employers NICs are a direct tax on employees wages, no different to fuel duty or alcohol duty being a direct tax on those goods.
    It's indirect because it doesn't necessarily fully translate to a reduction in wages, most obviously for minimum wage workers because their wages cannot go any lower. At the top end, the vast majority of it will be passed onto lower wages though, except in the public sector.

    It probably primarily translates to reduced employment at the bottom end of the labour market, though a further tightening due to lower immigration could mitigate that. All eyes on vacancies, though there is an ongoing post-COVID trend that predates the NICs change so you're looking for a change in that trend rather than absolute numbers.

    Productivity figures are going to look good though!
    My sister in law works in high end fashion retail.

    Every time staff costs go up, they reduce hours for the lowest end staff - the ones who go round folding clothes, and tidying. And who direct any customers to the real sales staff.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,805
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pogacar going to win the Tour de France here.....

    Winning a key mountaintop stage to take yellow and sticking a couple of minutes into your biggest rival WHILST IN RAINBOW is iconic stuff. Commentator said hadn't been done since Hinault.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,743
    Trump: Moscow's Man in the White House: Dispatches

    Drawing upon interviews from former US intelligence officials and White House insiders, this documentary highlights the factors apparently underpinning Donald Trump's relationship with Vladimir Putin. Is it unchecked admiration for a fellow authoritarian, a bold geopolitical gambit to divide Russia and China - or could the American president really be a recruited Russian asset?

    Channel 4, 9pm.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,791
    Carnyx said:

    I see TSE's been to Glastonbury recently.

    Yay, somebody spotted the Merlin/The Matter of Britain link.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,270
    edited 3:47PM
    Malmesbury said:

    Eabhal said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    bondegezou said:

    .

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    Do you want him to ignore his manifesto commitment?
    Considering he broke his commitments already when he raised NICs, that is moot.
    No, he didn't. We all knew they were going up precisely because it's the one thing Labour hadn't promised to leave alone.
    Employers NICs are a direct tax on employees wages, no different to fuel duty or alcohol duty being a direct tax on those goods.
    It's indirect because it doesn't necessarily fully translate to a reduction in wages, most obviously for minimum wage workers because their wages cannot go any lower. At the top end, the vast majority of it will be passed onto lower wages though, except in the public sector.

    It probably primarily translates to reduced employment at the bottom end of the labour market, though a further tightening due to lower immigration could mitigate that. All eyes on vacancies, though there is an ongoing post-COVID trend that predates the NICs change so you're looking for a change in that trend rather than absolute numbers.

    Productivity figures are going to look good though!
    My sister in law works in high end fashion retail.

    Every time staff costs go up, they reduce hours for the lowest end staff - the ones who go round folding clothes, and tidying. And who direct any customers to the real sales staff.
    Makes sense - it's a very significant proportional increase in the cost of employing someone on minimum-wage which you can't pass on in lower wages. OTOH, there is a fixed cost associated with employing someone in the first place so it might still be smarter to reduce headcount rather than hours.

    It's why you need to take the wages figures with a pinch of salt. If we dump lots of low wage jobs/hours then average earnings will increase without any actual increase in individual earnings.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,118
    MightyAlex said:

    After all the electoral meddling of the last decade this was always going to happen. On top of removing FPTP from mayoral and PCCs I'd be surprised if we don’t get auto enrolment and hopefully constituency boundaries reflecting the true population not the electoral roll numbers.

    Unintended consequences - a big reduction in the number of seats for Scotland, Wales and NI.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,189
    edited 3:48PM
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carnyx said:

    I see TSE's been to Glastonbury recently.

    Yay, somebody spotted the Merlin/The Matter of Britain link.
    Others have used that phrase before... :)

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/03/30/the-matter-of-britain/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,791
    viewcode said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carnyx said:

    I see TSE's been to Glastonbury recently.

    Yay, somebody spotted the Merlin/The Matter of Britain link.
    Others have used that phrase before... :)

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/03/30/the-matter-of-britain/
    But mine was a subtle play on the fact the pollster was Merlin.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,247
    Labour looking into Abbott's comments about racism

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwye24vjnn8o

    "She added: "Clearly, there must be a difference between racism which is about colour and other types of racism because you can see a Traveller or a Jewish person walking down the street, you don't know.

    "You don't know unless you stop to speak to them or you're in a meeting with them.

    "But if you see a black person walking down the street, you see straight away that they're black. They are different types of racism."

    Asked if she believed she had done anything wrong or had said something in her Observer letter that she did not believe in, she said: "I just think that it's silly to try and claim that racism which is about skin colour is the same as other types of racism.

    "I just... I don't know why people would say that.""
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,805
    2nd fastest ever climb after Riis.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,461
    williamglenn said:

    The best tactic to create difficulties for Labour over votes for 16 and 17-year-olds would be to add an amendment making it for UK and Irish citizens only.

    I would remove the vote for Irish citizens as well. Not because I have anything against them but because it is daft to have a system where citizens of a foreign country (who are not UK citizens) can vote in our national elections.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,009
    Fairliered said:

    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    No. He never thinks anything through

    Also Big Nigel is right in that vid. Reform are ALREADY in 2nd place with the kids. If Reform focus on those voters they could easily come first - Farage has more TikTok followers than all other UK pols combined. Starmer is such a fucking hapless stupid dork

    FPT I said this:

    Starmer is horribly bad at every single aspect of politics. Strategic, tactical, retail. He cannot orate and he has zero ideas, he doesn't understand party management and he is a terrlble negotiator, his charisma is negative and he's awful on TV

    Setting aside Liz Truss (as being sui generis) he is without question the worst prime minister of my lifetime - in terms of the skillset he brings to the job. He has NO skillset
    Before the election we were saying it would be good to have someone with less charisma. I didn’t believe we could get someone with absolutely no charisma.
    lol!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,251
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Trump: Moscow's Man in the White House: Dispatches

    Drawing upon interviews from former US intelligence officials and White House insiders, this documentary highlights the factors apparently underpinning Donald Trump's relationship with Vladimir Putin. Is it unchecked admiration for a fellow authoritarian, a bold geopolitical gambit to divide Russia and China - or could the American president really be a recruited Russian asset?

    Channel 4, 9pm.

    The 3rd option is unlikely but not quite as unlikely as the 2nd. So I'll go for the 1st.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,301
    So we’re now 150 miles north of the Arctic Circle, still no sunset, and it’s an incredible 25C outside, feels like 26C according to accuweather, and as there’s a fjord beach across from the hotel I tried that for a bit, but Mr Dog was clearly unhappy with the sun beating down, despite being able to paddle in the remarkably cold water of the fjord, so we have retreated into the hotel. Leaving most of the population of the town still out there, revelling in their sudden luck in having warmer weather than Barcelona right now.

    The lobby is nicely air conditioned but in the rooms I think the AC only heats the room, not cools it, which is probably all they usually need. So we wait in the warm for tonight’s football…surely I won’t be the only PB’er cheering on our team?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,641
    I thought it telling how none of the Green Goblin Fan Club could be arsed to snap on the stinky SMO themed bait so artlessly laid out by North London's top radiator painting solipsist.

    Interest is waning...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,282
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    williamglenn said:

    The best tactic to create difficulties for Labour over votes for 16 and 17-year-olds would be to add an amendment making it for UK and Irish citizens only.

    I would remove the vote for Irish citizens as well. Not because I have anything against them but because it is daft to have a system where citizens of a foreign country (who are not UK citizens) can vote in our national elections.
    Ireland isn't really a foreign country. We should aim to reintegrate it as much as possible.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,641
    Pulpstar said:

    2nd fastest ever climb after Riis.

    Second only to "Mr 60%". We all know what that means...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,060
    bondegezou said:

    Cookie said:

    bondegezou said:

    OldKingCole said:

    What about bringing back the 'run off' system for mayors?

    And, most importantly, what about STV for Parliamentary elections?

    They are bringing back SV for mayors... although they should simplify it and go with AV.
    I hesitate to bring this up - but STV for a single position - such as a mayor - is just AV. It's not wrong to describe it as STV, but it only has half of what makes typically STV interesting i.e. multi-member constituencies elected by transferable votes..
    SV, not STV. SV is the system we used to have for mayors where you pick a first and a second choice, so it's like AV, but you don't do a full ranking.
    SV means Supplementary Voting.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,301
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    bondegezou said:

    Cookie said:

    bondegezou said:

    OldKingCole said:

    What about bringing back the 'run off' system for mayors?

    And, most importantly, what about STV for Parliamentary elections?

    They are bringing back SV for mayors... although they should simplify it and go with AV.
    I hesitate to bring this up - but STV for a single position - such as a mayor - is just AV. It's not wrong to describe it as STV, but it only has half of what makes typically STV interesting i.e. multi-member constituencies elected by transferable votes..
    SV, not STV. SV is the system we used to have for mayors where you pick a first and a second choice, so it's like AV, but you don't do a full ranking.
    SV means Supplementary Voting.
    Because Blair’s Labour couldn’t cope with the idea that someone might win from third place, as the least unpopular candidate among a majority of voters, despite Labour and Tory candidates often winning under FPTP because they are the least unpopular….
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,592
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Trump: Moscow's Man in the White House: Dispatches

    Drawing upon interviews from former US intelligence officials and White House insiders, this documentary highlights the factors apparently underpinning Donald Trump's relationship with Vladimir Putin. Is it unchecked admiration for a fellow authoritarian, a bold geopolitical gambit to divide Russia and China - or could the American president really be a recruited Russian asset?

    Channel 4, 9pm.

    There is a new book out by Tim Weiner who is the top writer on the CIA and his view from talking to insiders in Washington is that Trump isn’t an asset but a useful idiot. I’m not going to go into it as the two links to an interview with Weiner and a book review by John Simpson are very much worth reading.

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2025/jul/15/tim-weiner-cia-trump

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2025/jul/10/the-mission-by-tim-weiner-review-unmasking-the-cia
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,247
    kinabalu said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Trump: Moscow's Man in the White House: Dispatches

    Drawing upon interviews from former US intelligence officials and White House insiders, this documentary highlights the factors apparently underpinning Donald Trump's relationship with Vladimir Putin. Is it unchecked admiration for a fellow authoritarian, a bold geopolitical gambit to divide Russia and China - or could the American president really be a recruited Russian asset?

    Channel 4, 9pm.

    The 3rd option is unlikely but not quite as unlikely as the 2nd. So I'll go for the 1st.
    My own current view is that any of them are possible; however, I favour the fact he is an elderly man, and for all of his adult life the Soviet Union was the big, bad enemy, to be feared. And like many, he equated the USSR with Russia. Russia was big. Russia was powerful. Russia was to be respected. And Putin is a man who wants a strong Russia, in the same way that Trump wants a strong America. Trump believes that is also to be respected.

    I'm unsure any actual strategic thinking goes on in Trump's head - though it might in those that surround him. He strikes me as someone who goes on gut feel from decision to decision, and he may well have run his businesses like that as well.

    If that's right, we can overanalyse what he is 'thinking', and only hope to influence his gut feelings. As Melania may well have done wrt Ukraine...
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,302
    Eabhal said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    bondegezou said:

    .

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    Do you want him to ignore his manifesto commitment?
    Considering he broke his commitments already when he raised NICs, that is moot.
    No, he didn't. We all knew they were going up precisely because it's the one thing Labour hadn't promised to leave alone.
    Employers NICs are a direct tax on employees wages, no different to fuel duty or alcohol duty being a direct tax on those goods.
    It's indirect because it doesn't necessarily fully translate to a reduction in wages, most obviously for minimum wage workers because their wages cannot go any lower. At the top end, the vast majority of it will be passed onto lower wages though, except in the public sector.

    It probably primarily translates to reduced employment at the bottom end of the labour market, though a further tightening due to lower immigration could mitigate that. All eyes on vacancies, though there is an ongoing post-COVID trend that predates the NICs change so you're looking for a change in that trend rather than absolute numbers.

    Productivity figures are going to look good though!
    Its direct in the same way as duties are. To argue that its not because the effects filter through to adjusted wages or lower employment is as delusional as arguing increasing alcohol duty isn't a direct tax on alcohol because firms like to have round number prices so it might not get passed on.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,302
    Dura_Ace said:

    I thought it telling how none of the Green Goblin Fan Club could be arsed to snap on the stinky SMO themed bait so artlessly laid out by North London's top radiator painting solipsist.

    Interest is waning...

    Interest in feeding the obvious troll is waning.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,247
    On topic, I'm instinctually against votes for 16 year olds, in the same way I was against voting ID. Both seem to be tiny changes designed to advantage one party or another (*), and not a full reevaluation of our voting system.

    (*) Whether it works like that is another matter...
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,622
    Looks like Trump´s ridiculous comments on Jay Powell are waking up investors to the idea that the Trump "administration" is asleep at the wheel and that there are no good outcomes.

    The USD falls have let quite a bit of the air out of the tyres, leaving several markets flat, despite hitting new highs in Dollar terms. I am beginning to think that the gap down is coming over the summer. Previously I thought the autumn.

    I liquidated half my S&P holdings and I am not sure I have gone far enough.

    Its going to get very messy in Washington very soon indeed.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,302
    Cicero said:

    Looks like Trump´s ridiculous comments on Jay Powell are waking up investors to the idea that the Trump "administration" is asleep at the wheel and that there are no good outcomes.

    The USD falls have let quite a bit of the air out of the tyres, leaving several markets flat, despite hitting new highs in Dollar terms. I am beginning to think that the gap down is coming over the summer. Previously I thought the autumn.

    I liquidated half my S&P holdings and I am not sure I have gone far enough.

    Its going to get very messy in Washington very soon indeed.

    Asleep is not the word I'd go for. He'd do less damage if he were asleep.

    Intoxicated more like it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,270
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Eabhal said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    bondegezou said:

    .

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    Do you want him to ignore his manifesto commitment?
    Considering he broke his commitments already when he raised NICs, that is moot.
    No, he didn't. We all knew they were going up precisely because it's the one thing Labour hadn't promised to leave alone.
    Employers NICs are a direct tax on employees wages, no different to fuel duty or alcohol duty being a direct tax on those goods.
    It's indirect because it doesn't necessarily fully translate to a reduction in wages, most obviously for minimum wage workers because their wages cannot go any lower. At the top end, the vast majority of it will be passed onto lower wages though, except in the public sector.

    It probably primarily translates to reduced employment at the bottom end of the labour market, though a further tightening due to lower immigration could mitigate that. All eyes on vacancies, though there is an ongoing post-COVID trend that predates the NICs change so you're looking for a change in that trend rather than absolute numbers.

    Productivity figures are going to look good though!
    Its direct in the same way as duties are. To argue that its not because the effects filter through to adjusted wages or lower employment is as delusional as arguing increasing alcohol duty isn't a direct tax on alcohol because firms like to have round number prices so it might not get passed on.
    Could you send me your dictionary so we can debate on equal terms?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,213
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    No. He never thinks anything through

    Also Big Nigel is right in that vid. Reform are ALREADY in 2nd place with the kids. If Reform focus on those voters they could easily come first - Farage has more TikTok followers than all other UK pols combined. Starmer is such a fucking hapless stupid dork

    FPT I said this:

    Starmer is horribly bad at every single aspect of politics. Strategic, tactical, retail. He cannot orate and he has zero ideas, he doesn't understand party management and he is a terrlble negotiator, his charisma is negative and he's awful on TV

    Setting aside Liz Truss (as being sui generis) he is without question the worst prime minister of my lifetime - in terms of the skillset he brings to the job. He has NO skillset
    Quite extraordinary then, that he became leader of his party, and then Prime Minister, having persuaded you to vote for his party.

    I simply cannot account for how this complete nullity, a politician of such outstanding awfulness that he makes even Liz Truss almost look good, had you fooled.
    Recall the alternatives

    Also, I agree with @SeanT, the brilliant Spectator writer, when he wrote on this subject. There were tentative reasons for some timid hope that Starmer might be OK, at first

    Are we allowed to link to the Spec? Not sure. If we are then I shall
    I think every single one of us has been disappointed by Starmer. Whatever our expectations - whether we thought he'd be great, good, ok-ish, perhaps not that bad, bad, terrible, the worst prime minister ever - he's managed to undershoot everyone's expectations.
    Disappointed specifically by Starmer's lack of leadership, given he almost unique amongst recent prime ministers had a track record of running a major operation before becoming PM, apparently quite successfully.

    Nevertheless he is factors better than:
    Johnson
    Truss
    Badenoch
    Farage
    Corbyn

    And somewhat better than Sunak, albeit with some worrying similarities.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,087
    FF43 said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    No. He never thinks anything through

    Also Big Nigel is right in that vid. Reform are ALREADY in 2nd place with the kids. If Reform focus on those voters they could easily come first - Farage has more TikTok followers than all other UK pols combined. Starmer is such a fucking hapless stupid dork

    FPT I said this:

    Starmer is horribly bad at every single aspect of politics. Strategic, tactical, retail. He cannot orate and he has zero ideas, he doesn't understand party management and he is a terrlble negotiator, his charisma is negative and he's awful on TV

    Setting aside Liz Truss (as being sui generis) he is without question the worst prime minister of my lifetime - in terms of the skillset he brings to the job. He has NO skillset
    Quite extraordinary then, that he became leader of his party, and then Prime Minister, having persuaded you to vote for his party.

    I simply cannot account for how this complete nullity, a politician of such outstanding awfulness that he makes even Liz Truss almost look good, had you fooled.
    Recall the alternatives

    Also, I agree with @SeanT, the brilliant Spectator writer, when he wrote on this subject. There were tentative reasons for some timid hope that Starmer might be OK, at first

    Are we allowed to link to the Spec? Not sure. If we are then I shall
    I think every single one of us has been disappointed by Starmer. Whatever our expectations - whether we thought he'd be great, good, ok-ish, perhaps not that bad, bad, terrible, the worst prime minister ever - he's managed to undershoot everyone's expectations.
    Disappointed specifically by Starmer's lack of leadership, given he almost unique amongst recent prime ministers had a track record of running a major operation before becoming PM, apparently quite successfully.

    Nevertheless he is factors better than:
    Johnson
    Truss
    Badenoch
    Farage
    Corbyn

    And somewhat better than Sunak, albeit with some worrying similarities.
    Has Starmer resigned yet?

    Listening to Tobias Elwood on R4 PM he is shocked that the Government have lost data on MI5 agents and UK Special Forces.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,166
    IanB2 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    bondegezou said:

    Cookie said:

    bondegezou said:

    OldKingCole said:

    What about bringing back the 'run off' system for mayors?

    And, most importantly, what about STV for Parliamentary elections?

    They are bringing back SV for mayors... although they should simplify it and go with AV.
    I hesitate to bring this up - but STV for a single position - such as a mayor - is just AV. It's not wrong to describe it as STV, but it only has half of what makes typically STV interesting i.e. multi-member constituencies elected by transferable votes..
    SV, not STV. SV is the system we used to have for mayors where you pick a first and a second choice, so it's like AV, but you don't do a full ranking.
    SV means Supplementary Voting.
    Because Blair’s Labour couldn’t cope with the idea that someone might win from third place, as the least unpopular candidate among a majority of voters, despite Labour and Tory candidates often winning under FPTP because they are the least unpopular….
    We would be better with a 2 round voting system like the French, with the top 2 going to the final round*.

    It gives a pause for thought (Do we really want LePen?) and also clarifies who the alternative is. I believe that turnout is generally higher in round 2.

    *I think in some circumstances the 3rd goes through too in France.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,924
    Dura_Ace said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    No. He never thinks anything through

    Also Big Nigel is right in that vid. Reform are ALREADY in 2nd place with the kids. If Reform focus on those voters they could easily come first - Farage has more TikTok followers than all other UK pols combined. Starmer is such a fucking hapless stupid dork

    FPT I said this:

    Starmer is horribly bad at every single aspect of politics. Strategic, tactical, retail. He cannot orate and he has zero ideas, he doesn't understand party management and he is a terrlble negotiator, his charisma is negative and he's awful on TV

    Setting aside Liz Truss (as being sui generis) he is without question the worst prime minister of my lifetime - in terms of the skillset he brings to the job. He has NO skillset
    Quite extraordinary then, that he became leader of his party, and then Prime Minister, having persuaded you to vote for his party.

    I simply cannot account for how this complete nullity, a politician of such outstanding awfulness that he makes even Liz Truss almost look good, had you fooled.
    Recall the alternatives

    Also, I agree with @SeanT, the brilliant Spectator writer, when he wrote on this subject. There were tentative reasons for some timid hope that Starmer might be OK, at first

    Are we allowed to link to the Spec? Not sure. If we are then I shall
    I think every single one of us has been disappointed by Starmer. Whatever our expectations - whether we thought he'd be great, good, ok-ish, perhaps not that bad, bad, terrible, the worst prime minister ever - he's managed to undershoot everyone's expectations.
    I am not disappointed, he's doing about as well as I thought he would. I just can't generate the "twattish hysteria" about the thing he's done, like Chagos, that so inflames the aging gammons on here. I still like him though because he defended the McLibel Two.
    there's clearly been a well funded big push from our billionnaire friends on social media to generate some hysterical 'worst ever' stylings about Starmer. I imagine if Tony Blair had won an election in 2024 rather than 1997 he'd be getting the same treatment.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,592
    Tres said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Corbyn most popular politician" - Has Starmer thought this through?

    No. He never thinks anything through

    Also Big Nigel is right in that vid. Reform are ALREADY in 2nd place with the kids. If Reform focus on those voters they could easily come first - Farage has more TikTok followers than all other UK pols combined. Starmer is such a fucking hapless stupid dork

    FPT I said this:

    Starmer is horribly bad at every single aspect of politics. Strategic, tactical, retail. He cannot orate and he has zero ideas, he doesn't understand party management and he is a terrlble negotiator, his charisma is negative and he's awful on TV

    Setting aside Liz Truss (as being sui generis) he is without question the worst prime minister of my lifetime - in terms of the skillset he brings to the job. He has NO skillset
    Quite extraordinary then, that he became leader of his party, and then Prime Minister, having persuaded you to vote for his party.

    I simply cannot account for how this complete nullity, a politician of such outstanding awfulness that he makes even Liz Truss almost look good, had you fooled.
    Recall the alternatives

    Also, I agree with @SeanT, the brilliant Spectator writer, when he wrote on this subject. There were tentative reasons for some timid hope that Starmer might be OK, at first

    Are we allowed to link to the Spec? Not sure. If we are then I shall
    I think every single one of us has been disappointed by Starmer. Whatever our expectations - whether we thought he'd be great, good, ok-ish, perhaps not that bad, bad, terrible, the worst prime minister ever - he's managed to undershoot everyone's expectations.
    I am not disappointed, he's doing about as well as I thought he would. I just can't generate the "twattish hysteria" about the thing he's done, like Chagos, that so inflames the aging gammons on here. I still like him though because he defended the McLibel Two.
    there's clearly been a well funded big push from our billionnaire friends on social media to generate some hysterical 'worst ever' stylings about Starmer. I imagine if Tony Blair had won an election in 2024 rather than 1997 he'd be getting the same treatment.
    Yeah, got to be big tech social media conspiracy and definitely not that Starmer just isn’t very good and can’t even use his massive majority to get good things done.

    When people were slagging off Rishi, Truss, Boris, May, Cameron do you think this was also generated by shadowy foreigners or maybe just people finding them to be crap?
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