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Don’t believe the hype – politicalbetting.com
Don’t believe the hype – politicalbetting.com
Back in February 2019 a hypothetical poll had The Independent Group polling at 18%.Don't get overexcited by the polls showing a Corbyn/Sultana party polling something similar.https://t.co/hhQWoHkX9R pic.twitter.com/QHOBOrEqc9
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Fruit and nut fun.
NEW DFP NYC POLL 🚨in a traditional mayoral electorate, mamdani is up 16 points over cuomo
https://x.com/ryanodonnellpa/status/1944739141712773153
He is a considerably more impressive politician than Sultana, of course.
I would just say on the wider point if Corbyn/ Sultana do set up a party and if Unite the Union sponsor it then that would be a problem for labour
Good morning, everyone.
And I for one am perfectly happy to be dismissive of the superannuated socialist.
The centre left needs to learn from history here because it’s not impossible that these “incompetents” could be destroying Labour’s chances of winning elections in the future.
Disclaimer, I’m not asking you not to post etc etc before you get sensitive again.
At least they believe that the world can and should be a better place. I like idealists.
Voters might currently think they want an outlet for their frustrations. I wouldn't bank on this, so far out from polling day. There's damn near four years until we have to be asked. By then we could be in a war with Russia. With a Trump Jr in the White House. Neither of those would exactly be good news for the offering of New Right or New Left.
I am baffled why Communist genocidal dictators and those who happily march under their banners get such a free pass. Stalin killed thrice as many through purges and the like as Hitler did.
Why not give a snake oil salesman who according to his teachers at Dulwich College doesn't like dark tones people, and claims to have all the answers, a shot in the big house? The argument is he can't be worse, even though you and I know he jolly well can.
Same goes for Bibi cf Putin. He's our genocidal maniac.
If all you knew was this interview you would think that Trump was a very good, kindly and fairly decent highly empathetic man who the media had no reason to distrust.
It seems clear that the BBC has two agendas. One is not to be cast into the outer darkness and vilified as Trump does to lots of media, and secondly to mimic the (understandable) UK government position of empathetic and fawning flattery towards a dangerous and deranged extremist.
But for those who would like to know what is going on try Washington Week, LBC's Simon Marks, MSNBC, NYT, Economist, Jon Stewart and others, who are reporting on that alternative planet in which USA is being taken captive by anti constitutionalist racists.
Mamdani is benefiting from having 3 rival "right-wing" candidates.
For now I still think the right answer is to try simple AV (the one we rejected) so that you can vote for the party you want but also another one as a 'reserve' which will mean that everyone can express their actual opinion. IMHO it would have fairly radical consequences.
I am also happy to prick the PB consensus and continue to remind Boris voters of the sizeable motes in their eyes.
New fangled nonsense to label the wireless as such.
It's likely that most Adams & Sliwa voters would prefer Cuomo to Mamdani, and at only 40% of the first preference vote, Mamdani could very well have lost the general election under Ranked Choice voting.
It appears that 7-8 years ago he made a perceived racist remark. The accuser says it was not malicious and he apologised immediately when challenged. Torode says he has no recollection of the incident.
Assuming the accusation is correct it seems like offence was caused, apologies were made and accepted and everyone moved on with their lives. What is the purpose of digging it up 8 years later?
Shame on you.
Hype is everywhere.
The economy is doing so fantastically well the FTSE 100 is now over 9000. A sure sign of confidence in the masterly stewardship of Rachel Reeves.
The Daily Star tells me Britain is on fire following grass fires in such diverse areas as Dagenham, Hornchurch and Walthamstow.
I am also told 15% will vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana - has it actually been launched yet?
Seriously....
Although it's not quite on a par with making the elephant face with one's pockets and one's old boy.
Aaron Rupar
@atrupar
·
17h
Roger Marshall: "Look, folks back in Kansas are tired of the federal government spending a billion dollars on public broadcasting. In today's world, I don't see that the benefits outweigh the detriment here."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1944767543043903930
I'm after a bit of local perspective.
I don't think this has received nearly enough informed attention.
I make two assumptions: Having got power they will want to keep it, and they will have learned from Truss that the markets are in charge, and from their voters that voters like free stuff.
Mark Rutte thanked Trump and concurred that Europe should pay the US
Make what you will on the story but it is news
Every day is a school day on here.
They're useful only in as far as events play out as people expect them to play out, and there have been times when hypotheticals *have* proven fairly accurate, for a while, because the public has a pretty good idea about those they're asked about.
For that matter, the hypotheticals - even when they're wrong on the top-line - can still tell us something useful. In this case, about how unpopular the main legacy parties are and how people are looking for an alternative.
However, TSE is entirely right to make the Change UK comparison. That was a genuine opportunity for a centre-left party to seize the initiative, sideline Corbyn, overtake a Lib Dem party still tainted by the coalition, and establish the primary opposition to the Tories. There were many people looking for such an option, as demonstrated by their early polling (and the Lib Dems' and Greens' later in the Spring / Summer), and with astute, innovative and confident leadership, could have achieved what the SDP failed to in 1981.
But of course it didn't. It fluffed every opportunity, from prevaricating over its launch to uncertainty over its objectives and policies, to not even knowing whether it was a political party at all. Inevitably, that gave confidence to neither the public nor other MPs who might have joined a party with momentum but not Momentum - and before long, even those who'd joined lost faith in a project without plans. What it needed was ruthlessness: a clear vision from Day 1 that it was out to attract ex-Remain Tory, Lib Dem and Labour MPs, to contest elections *against* those parties and to beat them, to launch a popular movement and attract thousands of members to contest the local elections and build a springboard into the Euros, to gain defections wholescale from Labour, ideally including its Deputy Leader and many ex-frontbenchers. It was possible with a fair wind and good judgement: it had anything but.
So to P&J or whatever. This is a project that's been flapping about ever since Corbyn was suspended in 2020 or thereabouts. That it's gone nowhere in five years tells its own story. As does a launch even more incompetent than Change UK. As does joint leaders who can't co-ordinate. I would normally give the project six months before it falls apart but in this case because those involved are used to disagreeing with everyone and because there will be support for it despite its obvious shortcomings as a party, the framework would probably survive through to 2029. But it'd be a shell and achieve nothing other than to highlight others' failures.
Your rootin'-tootin' local media reported that FOUR SQUARE MILES had been burnt down. That's a fact-check fail on one un-sanity-checked number put out by the Police & Fire Service.
The entire park is big, but it's only 250 acres. Which is 0.4 square miles.
It will be more like 400 sqft or 400sqm. It took 6 fire appliances.
And because this follows Savile and Schofield and Edwards and Kneecap and Gaza and Glastonbury. In this respect, he said, trying desperately to bring this back to politics, it is like the Profumo Scandal which was so threatening because it followed the Cambridge Spies, the Portland Spy Ring and the Vassall Affair. On its own terms, it was salacious tittle-tattle with only a tenuous link to espionage.
Therefore any hint of a scandal at the BBC receives disproportionate attention.
This isn't particularly a uniquely British/BBC thing. There was a whole scandal in Ireland that you won't have heard of over RTÉ and dodgy payments to its then highest-paid presenter Ryan Tubridy that dragged on for a lot longer than warranted. The government were delighted not to have to talk about the housing crisis for several weeks.
IIRC when she was an officer at university in Birmingham there were things around the Jewish Student community being refused representation as a "minority".
In summary, it'll be Johnson to the power of Truss. Chaos, corruption, cruelty and nationalism of the most banal stripe typified by flegs. So many flegs. Every single tory on here will quite like it.
Perhaps pointing and laughing at centre-leftists is potentially more fun. Or perhaps it is more of a mark of Tory mentality. I wouldn't know.
Hundreds of offences. 8 years later, the enquiry is not finished, and there have been no outcomes of prosecutions.
IMO in addition to the events, it is also about institutions not being joined up in dealing with it, and the NI state still being a mess.
File on Four 40 minutes:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002fvgl
Article Quote:
What police officers found when they visited the hospital in September 2017, triggered the UK's largest adult safeguarding investigation and made the hospital one of the nation's biggest ever crime scenes - according to data released by the police.
Unbeknown to staff, the CCTV cameras had been mistakenly left running for the six months since their installation, according to the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI).
A staggering 300,000 hours of footage was discovered - equivalent to 34 years' worth. It revealed not only the alleged assault on Aaron, but hundreds of other incidents carried out by hospital staff.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8j1xxkxk74o
Change UK didn't want change.
This is because prosecuting A Man of Violence (retired) or a close family member is An Attack On The Peace Process.
So the PSNI has to make sure they don't officiously find evidence of a crime committed by the Right (Wrong) Kind of People.
You did a comment saying “this is why Labour are likely to win the next election”
Next, @Scott_xP on “actually I’m not that keen on Brexit”
Corbyn and Farage just like breaking things.