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Some more good news for Starmer – politicalbetting.com

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  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,215

    Melania has got to him.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1944785242075840909

    Trump on Putin: “I go home and I tell the First Lady, ‘you know I spoke to Putin today, we had a wonderful conversation,’ she says ‘oh really? Another [Ukrainian] city was just hit.’”

    No, Putin has got to him.

    Everyone was saying that all along, and still today, nothing.

    50 days to do nothing? Utterly pathetic. How many 'deadlines' has Putin already crossed without consequences?
  • eekeek Posts: 30,657
    edited July 14
    I think this may be the best example ever of “be careful of what you wish (or ask) for as it may become true”.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,557

    Melania has got to him.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1944785242075840909

    Trump on Putin: “I go home and I tell the First Lady, ‘you know I spoke to Putin today, we had a wonderful conversation,’ she says ‘oh really? Another [Ukrainian] city was just hit.’”

    I apologise for anything bad I’ve said about the beautiful, intelligent and empathetic First Lady in that case. Maybe she should have the Nobel peace prize.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,276
    Amazing win for England. 4-1 now.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,860
    Nigelb said:

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1944778500696633478

    Trump to impose "very severe [secondary] tariffs" of 100% on Russia if no deal is reached "in 50 days."

    Meaningless. What "secondary" tariffs ?
    Since Russia is supposed to be trade sanctioned, tariffs ought to be pretty well irrelevant.

    And fifty days ?

    Just another deadline to go past, as he has with the previous two or three.
    I think secondary tariffs are on countries that continue to trade with Russia
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,122
    This governing lark is hard, innit.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,944
    Heart of stone not to laugh.....

    But more seriously, this while strange is an example of the sort of reality Reform will have to face. There are others, like their voters desire to have high levels of state expenditure, and therefore a less loudly expressed wish for high tax on everyone apart from Reform voters.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,944

    Stocky said:

    Interesting video,

    The graduate job market in the UK is becoming increasingly difficult, as job postings decrease and competition increases, exacerbating the over-qualification crisis. So in this video we'll look at this jobs crisis and why vacancies are continuing to fall.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjNKIEV87gI

    Many are leaving university to find jobs but only on minimum wage.
    Which can still be above the threshold to hit the 9% extra income tax rate.

    £25k and the threshold is frozen for years to come still, is not a "high" income.

    Indeed, work 40 hours per week and minimum wage alone takes you above that threshold. Ridiculous.

    A few more years of the threshold frozen and NMW rising and we'll have people working minimum wage on 35-37.5 hours per week paying 9% extra income tax on their minimum wage job.
    While this is terrible and unjust, the 9% is only charged on the income above the threshold.

    Even worse is that those living on what the state says is the minimum are paying tax and NI on about half of that income.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,428
    algarkirk said:

    Heart of stone not to laugh.....

    But more seriously, this while strange is an example of the sort of reality Reform will have to face. There are others, like their voters desire to have high levels of state expenditure, and therefore a less loudly expressed wish for high tax on everyone apart from Reform voters.
    The internal stresses within the Reform offer are immense and, I would suggest, uncontrollable. Four years is more than enough to tear it apart.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,019
    Leave it out. Reform hate foreigners!
  • eekeek Posts: 30,657

    algarkirk said:

    Heart of stone not to laugh.....

    But more seriously, this while strange is an example of the sort of reality Reform will have to face. There are others, like their voters desire to have high levels of state expenditure, and therefore a less loudly expressed wish for high tax on everyone apart from Reform voters.
    The internal stresses within the Reform offer are immense and, I would suggest, uncontrollable. Four years is more than enough to tear it apart.
    It’s one of those things where the Government does need to make a response that goes - but you asked is on this date, this date, this date and this date to cut the number of care workers we imported
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,215
    algarkirk said:

    Stocky said:

    Interesting video,

    The graduate job market in the UK is becoming increasingly difficult, as job postings decrease and competition increases, exacerbating the over-qualification crisis. So in this video we'll look at this jobs crisis and why vacancies are continuing to fall.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjNKIEV87gI

    Many are leaving university to find jobs but only on minimum wage.
    Which can still be above the threshold to hit the 9% extra income tax rate.

    £25k and the threshold is frozen for years to come still, is not a "high" income.

    Indeed, work 40 hours per week and minimum wage alone takes you above that threshold. Ridiculous.

    A few more years of the threshold frozen and NMW rising and we'll have people working minimum wage on 35-37.5 hours per week paying 9% extra income tax on their minimum wage job.
    While this is terrible and unjust, the 9% is only charged on the income above the threshold.

    Even worse is that those living on what the state says is the minimum are paying tax and NI on about half of that income.
    As the 9% threshold applies at minimum wage now effectively, we have ended up in an incredible position where people are paying this while also paying NI, Income Tax and facing UC Taper all simultaneously.

    So 20% ICT, 8% NIC, 9% SL and 55% Taper simultaneously.

    Madness.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,208

    Melania has got to him.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1944785242075840909

    Trump on Putin: “I go home and I tell the First Lady, ‘you know I spoke to Putin today, we had a wonderful conversation,’ she says ‘oh really? Another [Ukrainian] city was just hit.’”

    No, Putin has got to him.

    Everyone was saying that all along, and still today, nothing.

    50 days to do nothing? Utterly pathetic. How many 'deadlines' has Putin already crossed without consequences?
    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1944787517263249858

    U.S. President Donald J. Trump states that upwards of 17 MIM-104 “Patriot” Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, as well as additional missiles and associated equipment, are being prepared and will be sent to Ukraine, with many set to arrive on the battlefield “within days.”
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,019

    Melania has got to him.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1944785242075840909

    Trump on Putin: “I go home and I tell the First Lady, ‘you know I spoke to Putin today, we had a wonderful conversation,’ she says ‘oh really? Another [Ukrainian] city was just hit.’”

    No, Putin has got to him.

    Everyone was saying that all along, and still today, nothing.

    50 days to do nothing? Utterly pathetic. How many 'deadlines' has Putin already crossed without consequences?
    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1944787517263249858

    U.S. President Donald J. Trump states that upwards of 17 MIM-104 “Patriot” Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, as well as additional missiles and associated equipment, are being prepared and will be sent to Ukraine, with many set to arrive on the battlefield “within days.”
    Which part of Ukraine? Crimea.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,122

    algarkirk said:

    Stocky said:

    Interesting video,

    The graduate job market in the UK is becoming increasingly difficult, as job postings decrease and competition increases, exacerbating the over-qualification crisis. So in this video we'll look at this jobs crisis and why vacancies are continuing to fall.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjNKIEV87gI

    Many are leaving university to find jobs but only on minimum wage.
    Which can still be above the threshold to hit the 9% extra income tax rate.

    £25k and the threshold is frozen for years to come still, is not a "high" income.

    Indeed, work 40 hours per week and minimum wage alone takes you above that threshold. Ridiculous.

    A few more years of the threshold frozen and NMW rising and we'll have people working minimum wage on 35-37.5 hours per week paying 9% extra income tax on their minimum wage job.
    While this is terrible and unjust, the 9% is only charged on the income above the threshold.

    Even worse is that those living on what the state says is the minimum are paying tax and NI on about half of that income.
    As the 9% threshold applies at minimum wage now effectively, we have ended up in an incredible position where people are paying this while also paying NI, Income Tax and facing UC Taper all simultaneously.

    So 20% ICT, 8% NIC, 9% SL and 55% Taper simultaneously.

    Madness.
    Perhaps not madness but design. Increasing NMW passes the cost onto companies and the burden to find profitable areas of business that *does not* require taxpayer subsidy. Why should businesses and their owners be featherbedded from doing the hard yards in developing their business.

    The is a disconnect between 'entrepreneurs' wanting low tax/smaller state and their desire for subsidising jobs/companies/markets. Seems it's not only the 'benefit scroungers' that want free money.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,649
    edited July 14
    algarkirk said:

    Stocky said:

    Interesting video,

    The graduate job market in the UK is becoming increasingly difficult, as job postings decrease and competition increases, exacerbating the over-qualification crisis. So in this video we'll look at this jobs crisis and why vacancies are continuing to fall.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjNKIEV87gI

    Many are leaving university to find jobs but only on minimum wage.
    Which can still be above the threshold to hit the 9% extra income tax rate.

    £25k and the threshold is frozen for years to come still, is not a "high" income.

    Indeed, work 40 hours per week and minimum wage alone takes you above that threshold. Ridiculous.

    A few more years of the threshold frozen and NMW rising and we'll have people working minimum wage on 35-37.5 hours per week paying 9% extra income tax on their minimum wage job.
    While this is terrible and unjust, the 9% is only charged on the income above the threshold.

    Even worse is that those living on what the state says is the minimum are paying tax and NI on about half of that income.
    Ideally, people on minimum wage would be paid enough, and living costs would be low enough, that they could afford to pay some tax and still have a decent standard of living. We want the tax base to be as broad as possible.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,114

    Leave it out. Reform hate foreigners!
    Not those foreigners...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,357

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1944778500696633478

    Trump to impose "very severe [secondary] tariffs" of 100% on Russia if no deal is reached "in 50 days."

    So half as bad as the Pharma industry?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,212
    edited July 14
    Battlebus said:

    algarkirk said:

    Stocky said:

    Interesting video,

    The graduate job market in the UK is becoming increasingly difficult, as job postings decrease and competition increases, exacerbating the over-qualification crisis. So in this video we'll look at this jobs crisis and why vacancies are continuing to fall.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjNKIEV87gI

    Many are leaving university to find jobs but only on minimum wage.
    Which can still be above the threshold to hit the 9% extra income tax rate.

    £25k and the threshold is frozen for years to come still, is not a "high" income.

    Indeed, work 40 hours per week and minimum wage alone takes you above that threshold. Ridiculous.

    A few more years of the threshold frozen and NMW rising and we'll have people working minimum wage on 35-37.5 hours per week paying 9% extra income tax on their minimum wage job.
    While this is terrible and unjust, the 9% is only charged on the income above the threshold.

    Even worse is that those living on what the state says is the minimum are paying tax and NI on about half of that income.
    As the 9% threshold applies at minimum wage now effectively, we have ended up in an incredible position where people are paying this while also paying NI, Income Tax and facing UC Taper all simultaneously.

    So 20% ICT, 8% NIC, 9% SL and 55% Taper simultaneously.

    Madness.
    Perhaps not madness but design. Increasing NMW passes the cost onto companies and the burden to find profitable areas of business that *does not* require taxpayer subsidy. Why should businesses and their owners be featherbedded from doing the hard yards in developing their business.

    The is a disconnect between 'entrepreneurs' wanting low tax/smaller state and their desire for subsidising jobs/companies/markets. Seems it's not only the 'benefit scroungers' that want free money.
    The problem isn't the minimum wage.
    It is the crazy marginal tax rates that act as a disincentive.
    Surely there are some numerate people in the Treasury that can sort this out? Or is the problem that they are all arts graduates and haven't a clue?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,894
    At least Mrs Stodge's fish and chip supper is safe.

    Thank Cod....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,019
    Foxy said:

    Leave it out. Reform hate foreigners!
    Not those foreigners...
    Surely a foreigner is a foreigner. Can we start calling uncontrolled mass immigration "the Farage wave"?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,696
    edited July 14
    Find Out Now have done some hypothetical polling to wind everyone up. Appears to only be 650 respondents and is being reported on lbc, but for the giggles, it has

    Ref 34
    Con 17
    Corbyn/Sultana party 15
    Labour 15
    LD 9
    Green 5

    *just for fun*

    But, if repeated in a regular poll after the new party actually launches will be Labour's lowest ever vote share in a GE VI poll by 3 points
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,703

    algarkirk said:

    Stocky said:

    Interesting video,

    The graduate job market in the UK is becoming increasingly difficult, as job postings decrease and competition increases, exacerbating the over-qualification crisis. So in this video we'll look at this jobs crisis and why vacancies are continuing to fall.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjNKIEV87gI

    Many are leaving university to find jobs but only on minimum wage.
    Which can still be above the threshold to hit the 9% extra income tax rate.

    £25k and the threshold is frozen for years to come still, is not a "high" income.

    Indeed, work 40 hours per week and minimum wage alone takes you above that threshold. Ridiculous.

    A few more years of the threshold frozen and NMW rising and we'll have people working minimum wage on 35-37.5 hours per week paying 9% extra income tax on their minimum wage job.
    While this is terrible and unjust, the 9% is only charged on the income above the threshold.

    Even worse is that those living on what the state says is the minimum are paying tax and NI on about half of that income.
    Ideally, people on minimum wage would be paid enough, and living costs would be low enough, that they could afford to pay some tax and still have a decent standard of living. We want the tax base to be as broad as possible.
    Ideally, we would not have a minimum wage at all. It was designed in America as a way to prevent black workers from outcompeting whites. Basic economic theory is that people should be paid according to their productivity. The minimum wage destroys that link, disincentivising people from upskilling and improving their productivity, and increases unemployment into the bargain. It costs small businesses a fortune to demonstrate compliance. And since most people on it are second earners, it's not even a very efficient way of reducing poverty. Some countries like Denmark, which don't have a minimum wage, have lower inequality than we do.

    It should never have been introduced. But it's a way for government to tax businesses to pay for welfare spending without increasing tax rates, so they love it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,181

    Melania has got to him.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1944785242075840909

    Trump on Putin: “I go home and I tell the First Lady, ‘you know I spoke to Putin today, we had a wonderful conversation,’ she says ‘oh really? Another [Ukrainian] city was just hit.’”

    This is him saying US foreign policy is now all about his personal whim.

    Just in case there remains anybody thinking otherwise.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,170

    algarkirk said:

    Heart of stone not to laugh.....

    But more seriously, this while strange is an example of the sort of reality Reform will have to face. There are others, like their voters desire to have high levels of state expenditure, and therefore a less loudly expressed wish for high tax on everyone apart from Reform voters.
    The internal stresses within the Reform offer are immense and, I would suggest, uncontrollable. Four years is more than enough to tear it apart.
    I really wish we had a political culture where politicians told the truth about the various challenges and trade offs we face and the public was able to engage with the debate and understand the trade offs. Like, if you want to pay generous pensions and provide free healthcare when people are living longer with more health conditions then you need to pay more tax. If you want no immigration then you need to pay a lot more in the care sector and raise the retirement age. If you want to be outside the EU's single market then you will pay more for things and have a less productive economy. Instead we live in a world of utter political dishonesty and nothing ever gets fixed, rather the country continues to circle the drain.
    Maybe they should have asked “If you want no immigration are you prepared to pay a lot more in the care sector and raise the retirement age?”before the immigration floodgates were opened. Because there’s no going back now if the answer would have been yes

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,019
    edited July 14

    Find Out Now have done some hypothetical polling to wind everyone up. Appears to only be 650 respondents and is being reported on lbc, but for the giggles, it has

    Ref 34
    Con 17
    Corbyn/Sultana party 15
    Labour 15
    LD 9
    Green 5

    *just for fun*

    But, if repeated in a regular poll after the new party actually launches will be Labour's lowest ever vote share in a GE VI poll by 3 points

    Your teams are smashing it out of the park.

    Jeremy Corbyn; furnishing right wing Governments since 1983.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,208
    kinabalu said:

    Melania has got to him.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1944785242075840909

    Trump on Putin: “I go home and I tell the First Lady, ‘you know I spoke to Putin today, we had a wonderful conversation,’ she says ‘oh really? Another [Ukrainian] city was just hit.’”

    This is him saying US foreign policy is now all about his personal whim.

    Just in case there remains anybody thinking otherwise.
    https://www.cato.org/commentary/who-would-hillary-clinton-bomb

    As first lady, Clinton played a key role in convincing her husband to bomb Serbia without congressional approval. For eight months after the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke, she refused to speak to her husband, until, in March 1999, she phoned him with a directive to attack.

    “I urged him to bomb,” she later explained.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,932
    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    Heart of stone not to laugh.....

    But more seriously, this while strange is an example of the sort of reality Reform will have to face. There are others, like their voters desire to have high levels of state expenditure, and therefore a less loudly expressed wish for high tax on everyone apart from Reform voters.
    The internal stresses within the Reform offer are immense and, I would suggest, uncontrollable. Four years is more than enough to tear it apart.
    I really wish we had a political culture where politicians told the truth about the various challenges and trade offs we face and the public was able to engage with the debate and understand the trade offs. Like, if you want to pay generous pensions and provide free healthcare when people are living longer with more health conditions then you need to pay more tax. If you want no immigration then you need to pay a lot more in the care sector and raise the retirement age. If you want to be outside the EU's single market then you will pay more for things and have a less productive economy. Instead we live in a world of utter political dishonesty and nothing ever gets fixed, rather the country continues to circle the drain.
    Maybe they should have asked “If you want no immigration are you prepared to pay a lot more in the care sector and raise the retirement age?”before the immigration floodgates were opened. Because there’s no going back now if the answer would have been yes

    Yes, I must have missed Tony Blair presenting this choice in the early 2000s.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,451

    kinabalu said:

    Melania has got to him.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1944785242075840909

    Trump on Putin: “I go home and I tell the First Lady, ‘you know I spoke to Putin today, we had a wonderful conversation,’ she says ‘oh really? Another [Ukrainian] city was just hit.’”

    This is him saying US foreign policy is now all about his personal whim.

    Just in case there remains anybody thinking otherwise.
    https://www.cato.org/commentary/who-would-hillary-clinton-bomb

    As first lady, Clinton played a key role in convincing her husband to bomb Serbia without congressional approval. For eight months after the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke, she refused to speak to her husband, until, in March 1999, she phoned him with a directive to attack.

    “I urged him to bomb,” she later explained.
    And Blair ended up supporting the now indicted war criminal head of the KLA and President of Kosovo.

    Nothing on that in the western press for many years now, for fear of giving a Russian propaganda victory.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,181

    kinabalu said:

    Melania has got to him.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1944785242075840909

    Trump on Putin: “I go home and I tell the First Lady, ‘you know I spoke to Putin today, we had a wonderful conversation,’ she says ‘oh really? Another [Ukrainian] city was just hit.’”

    This is him saying US foreign policy is now all about his personal whim.

    Just in case there remains anybody thinking otherwise.
    https://www.cato.org/commentary/who-would-hillary-clinton-bomb

    As first lady, Clinton played a key role in convincing her husband to bomb Serbia without congressional approval. For eight months after the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke, she refused to speak to her husband, until, in March 1999, she phoned him with a directive to attack.

    “I urged him to bomb,” she later explained.
    You have not comprehended what I'm saying.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,557
    edited July 14

    algarkirk said:

    Heart of stone not to laugh.....

    But more seriously, this while strange is an example of the sort of reality Reform will have to face. There are others, like their voters desire to have high levels of state expenditure, and therefore a less loudly expressed wish for high tax on everyone apart from Reform voters.
    The internal stresses within the Reform offer are immense and, I would suggest, uncontrollable. Four years is more than enough to tear it apart.
    I really wish we had a political culture where politicians told the truth about the various challenges and trade offs we face and the public was able to engage with the debate and understand the trade offs. Like, if you want to pay generous pensions and provide free healthcare when people are living longer with more health conditions then you need to pay more tax. If you want no immigration then you need to pay a lot more in the care sector and raise the retirement age. If you want to be outside the EU's single market then you will pay more for things and have a less productive economy. Instead we live in a world of utter political dishonesty and nothing ever gets fixed, rather the country continues to circle the drain.
    You can’t argue with it the way you put it, looks simple and obvious. Unfortunately there are millions of competing demands and every interest group wants “more money” and there is only a finite amount of tax a government can take.

    Of course a lot of voters won’t give a shit because those increased rates won’t effect them but a lot of people, when given the choice of higher taxes will vote against because, rightly or wrongly, they see the things or the people those taxes are spent on being undeserving and feel that their hard work shouldn’t be excessively penalised.

    A more honest honesty would be, should we really be spending vast sums on healthcare on people over certain ages or with certain conditions where we are paying for a couple of years extra for example? Should we be giving people the choice of making their families look after them in old age v allowing them to pass on inheritances - either use your money for old age care or if your family want the house then they look after you.

    Should we become a neutral non-aligned nation and purely have a defence force protecting our country and hang everyone else (hello Ireland) and save a fortune or should we have a global role with soft power benefits.

    Should we make hiring and firing easier to encourage people to take more risks in setting up and building businesses?

    My point is that the argument is always framed about more taxes and spending or less but never about, should we be doing less or demanding more work/effort/innovation for the same effort/work/pay.

    A couple of months ago Nick Robinson nearly fell off his chair in a Today interview where he was interviewing someone about prisons or similar and he asked how much more money the guy wanted to see for his idea and he said none, it needed a change in work practices not money. It summed the country up that it’s always “more money” not more work or thought.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,208
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Melania has got to him.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1944785242075840909

    Trump on Putin: “I go home and I tell the First Lady, ‘you know I spoke to Putin today, we had a wonderful conversation,’ she says ‘oh really? Another [Ukrainian] city was just hit.’”

    This is him saying US foreign policy is now all about his personal whim.

    Just in case there remains anybody thinking otherwise.
    https://www.cato.org/commentary/who-would-hillary-clinton-bomb

    As first lady, Clinton played a key role in convincing her husband to bomb Serbia without congressional approval. For eight months after the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke, she refused to speak to her husband, until, in March 1999, she phoned him with a directive to attack.

    “I urged him to bomb,” she later explained.
    You have not comprehended what I'm saying.
    I’m quibbling with the “now”.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,019
    ...
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Melania has got to him.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1944785242075840909

    Trump on Putin: “I go home and I tell the First Lady, ‘you know I spoke to Putin today, we had a wonderful conversation,’ she says ‘oh really? Another [Ukrainian] city was just hit.’”

    This is him saying US foreign policy is now all about his personal whim.

    Just in case there remains anybody thinking otherwise.
    https://www.cato.org/commentary/who-would-hillary-clinton-bomb

    As first lady, Clinton played a key role in convincing her husband to bomb Serbia without congressional approval. For eight months after the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke, she refused to speak to her husband, until, in March 1999, she phoned him with a directive to attack.

    “I urged him to bomb,” she later explained.
    You have not comprehended what I'm saying.
    It's a Russian bot. What do you expect?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,208
    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1944814548948484373

    New poll with FindOutNow:

    Reform: 34%
    Conservatives: 17%
    Labour: 15% 🤯
    New ‘Corbyn-Sultana party: 15%
    Lib Dems: 9%
    Greens: 5%

    When did a member of the British polling council have Labour that low? If ever?!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,019
    edited July 14

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1944814548948484373

    New poll with FindOutNow:

    Reform: 34%
    Conservatives: 17%
    Labour: 15% 🤯
    New ‘Corbyn-Sultana party: 15%
    Lib Dems: 9%
    Greens: 5%

    When did a member of the British polling council have Labour that low? If ever?!

    This was posted 5 minutes ago. Does it get better with every posting?

    Have Corbyn and Sultana launched their party yet or are you being very naughty and posting a projected poll with a party that for the moment doesn't exist and purporting it to be a reality, on the foremost political betting website?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,208

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1944814548948484373

    New poll with FindOutNow:

    Reform: 34%
    Conservatives: 17%
    Labour: 15% 🤯
    New ‘Corbyn-Sultana party: 15%
    Lib Dems: 9%
    Greens: 5%

    When did a member of the British polling council have Labour that low? If ever?!

    This was posted 5 minutes ago. Does it get better with every posting?
    It’s a good question about Labour.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,634
    edited July 14

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1944814548948484373

    New poll with FindOutNow:

    Reform: 34%
    Conservatives: 17%
    Labour: 15% 🤯
    New ‘Corbyn-Sultana party: 15%
    Lib Dems: 9%
    Greens: 5%

    When did a member of the British polling council have Labour that low? If ever?!

    Last time they polled nonexistent parties, Aaron?

    It amuses me that her name is almost "Queen".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,884

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1944814548948484373

    New poll with FindOutNow:

    Reform: 34%
    Conservatives: 17%
    Labour: 15% 🤯
    New ‘Corbyn-Sultana party: 15%
    Lib Dems: 9%
    Greens: 5%

    When did a member of the British polling council have Labour that low? If ever?!

    We need PR, on that poll Reform would win a massive majority on barely more than a third of the vote.

    Corbyn just 3% off being leader of the opposition again too but 51% of voters still voting neither for Farage or Corbyn
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,208
    HYUFD said:

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1944814548948484373

    New poll with FindOutNow:

    Reform: 34%
    Conservatives: 17%
    Labour: 15% 🤯
    New ‘Corbyn-Sultana party: 15%
    Lib Dems: 9%
    Greens: 5%

    When did a member of the British polling council have Labour that low? If ever?!

    We need PR, on that poll Reform would win a massive majority on barely more than a third of the vote.

    Corbyn just 3% off being leader of the opposition again too but 51% of voters still voting neither for Farage or Corbyn
    It would depend which of the three parties fighting for second place had the most efficient vote, but I don't see why it strengthens the case for PR.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,019
    HYUFD said:

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1944814548948484373

    New poll with FindOutNow:

    Reform: 34%
    Conservatives: 17%
    Labour: 15% 🤯
    New ‘Corbyn-Sultana party: 15%
    Lib Dems: 9%
    Greens: 5%

    When did a member of the British polling council have Labour that low? If ever?!

    We need PR, on that poll Reform would win a massive majority on barely more than a third of the vote.

    Corbyn just 3% off being leader of the opposition again too but 51% of voters still voting neither for Farage or Corbyn
    It's bollocks HY and @williamglenn knows better than to post such shit and couch it as an accurate poll. I am surprised no one has flagged him.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,170
    edited July 14
    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,043
    Colour me sceptical that a new Corbyn party would immediately poll the same % as Labour and nearly the same as the Conservatives. Not really buying it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,019
    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,789

    Prof. Frank McDonough
    @FXMC1957

    14 July 1933. German Chancellor Adolf Hitler decreed that all political parties in Germany were banned except for the Nazi Party (NSDAP). In less than 6 months after coming to power Hitler had destroyed democracy in Germany.

    https://x.com/FXMC1957/status/1944673227751490027
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,019

    Colour me sceptical that a new Corbyn party would immediately poll the same % as Labour and nearly the same as the Conservatives. Not really buying it.

    Isn't is Goodwin's lot?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,181
    edited July 14

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Melania has got to him.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1944785242075840909

    Trump on Putin: “I go home and I tell the First Lady, ‘you know I spoke to Putin today, we had a wonderful conversation,’ she says ‘oh really? Another [Ukrainian] city was just hit.’”

    This is him saying US foreign policy is now all about his personal whim.

    Just in case there remains anybody thinking otherwise.
    https://www.cato.org/commentary/who-would-hillary-clinton-bomb

    As first lady, Clinton played a key role in convincing her husband to bomb Serbia without congressional approval. For eight months after the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke, she refused to speak to her husband, until, in March 1999, she phoned him with a directive to attack.

    “I urged him to bomb,” she later explained.
    You have not comprehended what I'm saying.
    I’m quibbling with the “now”.
    Here's what I mean and you agree since it's impossible not to:

    There's more whim and caprice driving big decisions with this president than any before by an order of magnitude.

    He wants us all to know this.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,170

    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it.
    You’re sounding like a bot now!

    She couldn’t have done much about it, she wasn’t PM or CofE. Now she is the only senior politician articulating this, and fair play to her for it
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,696
    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    She's clearly looking to create a wedge between her and Reform in policy/outlook.
    The Tories want to claim second place in the polling to make it a Ref Con fight with Labour sidelined. They cant do anything from third as the LDs will testify since the nineteen twenties
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,451


    Prof. Frank McDonough
    @FXMC1957

    14 July 1933. German Chancellor Adolf Hitler decreed that all political parties in Germany were banned except for the Nazi Party (NSDAP). In less than 6 months after coming to power Hitler had destroyed democracy in Germany.

    https://x.com/FXMC1957/status/1944673227751490027

    I expect the French aren't too keen on the resonance of the date.

  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,557

    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it.
    Im sure you think that’s a zinger but do share with us how many of those years Kemi was remotely senior enough to have any influence on the Tory government’s direction and overall policies. Junior ministers have little policy power over their own department yet alone wider government policy.

    Oh btw, she was only elected in 2017 so had even less time to wield her ginormous influence on Cameron, May, Boris, Liz and Rishi.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,019
    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it.
    You’re sounding like a bot now!

    She couldn’t have done much about it, she wasn’t PM or CofE. Now she is the only senior politician articulating this, and fair play to her for it
    Check out the years in which the welfare bill burgeoned. I think you might find Mrs Badenoch was in Cabinet for most of them.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,932

    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it.
    Whilst there's obviously some merit in this criticism, I think you need to do it winning a general election. Theresa May tried and failed. Boris won an election but without any hard truths. Liz Truss tried to be radical without an election.

    Whether the public will be ready to give the Tories a chance to do what's necessary next time, who knows? But it is easier to come up with a plan whilst in opposition (Labour very clearly didn't).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,884

    HYUFD said:

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1944814548948484373

    New poll with FindOutNow:

    Reform: 34%
    Conservatives: 17%
    Labour: 15% 🤯
    New ‘Corbyn-Sultana party: 15%
    Lib Dems: 9%
    Greens: 5%

    When did a member of the British polling council have Labour that low? If ever?!

    We need PR, on that poll Reform would win a massive majority on barely more than a third of the vote.

    Corbyn just 3% off being leader of the opposition again too but 51% of voters still voting neither for Farage or Corbyn
    It would depend which of the three parties fighting for second place had the most efficient vote, but I don't see why it strengthens the case for PR.
    We certainly shouldn't have two consecutive governments winning landslide majorities on only a third of the vote.

    In 2017 too had Corbyn got a 2-3% higher voteshare he would have got a majority on a minority voteshare
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,058

    CH4 / Guardian now giving airing to Lucy Letby is innocent narrative....

    A senior coroner’s officer who first reviewed the deaths of babies at the Countess of Chester hospital for Cheshire police in 2017 now believes Lucy Letby has suffered a miscarriage of justice.

    Stephanie Davies, who was given three hours to carry out her review, was told it was key to detectives deciding to commence an investigation into the former neonatal nurse.

    In her first interview, with the Guardian and Channel 4 News, Davies said she had become increasingly alarmed since December, when she learned that the hospital doctors had not reported a key medical procedure on one of the babies to the coroner at the time. She has since found the explanations of new medical experts, who have publicly contested the prosecution arguments, compelling.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jul/14/former-senior-coroners-officer-says-lucy-letby-has-suffered-miscarriage-of-justice

    That'll mess with some on here - its not just the racist right wingers who think the case might be a bit dodgy...
    It's hard to say which is less attractive - the clowns jumping onto the Free The Letby One Bus or the clowns going all Lord Denning.

    For me, it looks like some statistics have been tortured. Again. There needs to be some action on the problem of innumeracy among lawyers, it seems. Though the path to confirmation of what you believe, via maths, has been trodden by a number of brilliant minds.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Innumeracy-Mathematical-Illiteracy-Its-Consequences/dp/0670830089

    As to whether she is innocent or guilty - I don't know. Leaning towards guilty with the pile of evidence as it is.

    As to whether the unit she was working in was a lethal shit show - quite possibly. It may have covered up her activities, after all.
    Exactly. If the NHS is an easy place to lose a child killer, that's a big big problem.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,557

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it.
    You’re sounding like a bot now!

    She couldn’t have done much about it, she wasn’t PM or CofE. Now she is the only senior politician articulating this, and fair play to her for it
    Check out the years in which the welfare bill burgeoned. I think you might find Mrs Badenoch was in Cabinet for most of them.
    Again, do you think that, for example, Keir Starmer waits with baited breath in Cabinet to hear what his Welfare Secretary thinks of policy and then enacts what they say, or does the PM, after consultation with his inner team, tell his ministers the direction they will be going in and the policies that will be eneacted?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,631
    A lot of Labour voters are totally fed up of the party so I don’t find the poll such a shock . Clearly Labour will have to tack to the left at some point and stop chasing Reform voters .
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,019
    edited July 14
    boulay said:

    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it.
    Im sure you think that’s a zinger but do share with us how many of those years Kemi was remotely senior enough to have any influence on the Tory government’s direction and overall policies. Junior ministers have little policy power over their own department yet alone wider government policy.

    Oh btw, she was only elected in 2017 so had even less time to wield her ginormous influence on Cameron, May, Boris, Liz and Rishi.
    The welfare bill is out of control. The welfare bill needs to be cut dramatically. Labour just attempted to reduce it, but badly and they failed miserably.

    My main point stands. She has been in Cabinet during the years the welfare bill ran out of control.

    I am well aware you don't approve of me posting on here, but you can't slap me down with a counter factual. She was in Cabinet when the welfare bill grew.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,451
    Talking of Russian bots, have they decided that PB isn't as important as they thought ?

    Haven't seen any of them for a while.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,944

    algarkirk said:

    Heart of stone not to laugh.....

    But more seriously, this while strange is an example of the sort of reality Reform will have to face. There are others, like their voters desire to have high levels of state expenditure, and therefore a less loudly expressed wish for high tax on everyone apart from Reform voters.
    The internal stresses within the Reform offer are immense and, I would suggest, uncontrollable. Four years is more than enough to tear it apart.
    If the end of civilization as we know it is upon us, we can at least enjoy the show while it lasts. The next four years are not going to be dull.

    In particular, a part of Reform would like to undo the state, undo the major planks of the 1945 post WWII deal, and bring about a new sort of UK as Singapore on Humber. Another part will actually want to run as a nationalist limited migration old Labour social democracy.

    Another tension in the over heated boiler is this: the more the Tories (look at Mr Jenrick) look like Reform, the more obvious it will be that there should be an electoral pact, as otherwise they could simply defeat each other. But at the same time fewer old Tories will want to identify with it. The less the Tories look like Reform the more they will both sweep up half the available vote each (low to mid 20s), eschew a pact, and both lose to Labour on 29/30.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,170

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it.
    You’re sounding like a bot now!

    She couldn’t have done much about it, she wasn’t PM or CofE. Now she is the only senior politician articulating this, and fair play to her for it
    Check out the years in which the welfare bill burgeoned. I think you might find Mrs Badenoch was in Cabinet for most of them.
    Oh well I suppose she shouldn’t suggest doing anything about it now then, sorry for mentioning it
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,944

    Talking of Russian bots, have they decided that PB isn't as important as they thought ?

    Haven't seen any of them for a while.

    They tried arguing to a finish with a couple of PBers and their systems exploded.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,019
    nico67 said:

    A lot of Labour voters are totally fed up of the party so I don’t find the poll such a shock . Clearly Labour will have to tack to the left at some point and stop chasing Reform voters .

    They are, and there is definitely a left wedge which could cause problems. Nonetheless this poll is bollocks and @williamglenn was very mischievous to try and sell it as a reality. At least @wooliedyed caveated his post with "for a bit of fun".
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,557

    boulay said:

    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it.
    Im sure you think that’s a zinger but do share with us how many of those years Kemi was remotely senior enough to have any influence on the Tory government’s direction and overall policies. Junior ministers have little policy power over their own department yet alone wider government policy.

    Oh btw, she was only elected in 2017 so had even less time to wield her ginormous influence on Cameron, May, Boris, Liz and Rishi.
    The welfare bill is out of control. The welfare bill needs to be cut dramatically. Labour just attempted badly and failed miserably.

    My main point stands. She has been in Cabinet during the years the welfare bill ran out of control.

    I am well aware you don't approve of me posting on here, but you can't slap me down with a counter factual. She was in Cabinet when the welfare bill grew.
    What is your obsession with making crap up about what other posters say/think? It’s up there with your Leon obsession.

    Your point about Kemi would be effective if she had been PM or CotE, as she was not she would have absolutely zero control or influence over the growth or not of the Welfare bill during her time in government - you know that but in a desperate attempt to throw out attacks on the enemy you don’t actually use your brain.

    Your main point was “ If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it” which was dumb as pointed out for the fact that she wasn’t in government for the last fifteen years and had no particular influence over government policy. So your main point doesn’t stand and you are trying to shift it because you also realise that your main point was pretty dim.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,696
    edited July 14
    Change UK went from 18% to 1% or not registering very quickly.
    Corbyn will get a handful of jaw dropper polls early on (if the old fool ever actually launches this bloody party) but will soon fade down to mid single figures. I reckon Dried Fruits and the Greens will share 10 to 15% with Labour losing maybe 2 or 3 points off their current polling and the LDs similarly might lose a point or two (much less certain on that score but I fancy the youngest cohort LDs might peel off a bit)
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,696

    nico67 said:

    A lot of Labour voters are totally fed up of the party so I don’t find the poll such a shock . Clearly Labour will have to tack to the left at some point and stop chasing Reform voters .

    They are, and there is definitely a left wedge which could cause problems. Nonetheless this poll is bollocks and @williamglenn was very mischievous to try and sell it as a reality. At least @wooliedyed caveated his post with "for a bit of fun".
    Im not taking anything featuring JC and the Dried Fruit seriously until they launch a proper party registered with the EC and with a name etc. Until then its like any hypothetical polling - just for fun
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,894
    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    It's clear both the Mail and the Times have for now given up their fixation on Reform - they could switch back nearer the election as they'd rather back a winner but we'll see.

    The new groups to be demonised, it seems, is anyone on "welfare" so that includes pensioners I presume, It's a big part of Government expenditure.

    However, it needs more than tinkering around with welfare to resolve the public finances and while the Times no doubt wants to see big spending cuts (and tax cuts I imagine), Badenoch hasn't gone that far and no one else has yet publicly committed to the kind of "hard truths" for which the Times is calling.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,250


    Prof. Frank McDonough
    @FXMC1957

    14 July 1933. German Chancellor Adolf Hitler decreed that all political parties in Germany were banned except for the Nazi Party (NSDAP). In less than 6 months after coming to power Hitler had destroyed democracy in Germany.

    https://x.com/FXMC1957/status/1944673227751490027

    Luckily nobody would do that now...

    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump on Democrats during his speech to a faith group: "They're evil people in many ways."

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3ltwwnpazlb2v
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,944

    boulay said:

    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it.
    Im sure you think that’s a zinger but do share with us how many of those years Kemi was remotely senior enough to have any influence on the Tory government’s direction and overall policies. Junior ministers have little policy power over their own department yet alone wider government policy.

    Oh btw, she was only elected in 2017 so had even less time to wield her ginormous influence on Cameron, May, Boris, Liz and Rishi.
    The welfare bill is out of control. The welfare bill needs to be cut dramatically. Labour just attempted to reduce it, but badly and they failed miserably.

    My main point stands. She has been in Cabinet during the years the welfare bill ran out of control.

    I am well aware you don't approve of me posting on here, but you can't slap me down with a counter factual. She was in Cabinet when the welfare bill grew.
    I tentatively suggest the ad hominem and historic argument is not especially interesting. More to the point is this when it comes to welfare: The stark maths. To save £5 billion pa - which is the great scheme of things is an accounting footnote, you have to remove £5000 every year from 1 million people. To save £20 billion pa - which begins to be serious cash but isn't mega money - you have, for example to remove £2000 every year from 10 million people.

    Who? How? Be specific.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,250
    kinabalu said:

    Melania has got to him.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1944785242075840909

    Trump on Putin: “I go home and I tell the First Lady, ‘you know I spoke to Putin today, we had a wonderful conversation,’ she says ‘oh really? Another [Ukrainian] city was just hit.’”

    This is him saying US foreign policy is now all about his personal whim.

    Just in case there remains anybody thinking otherwise.
    Not his personal whim. Did you not see his presser today?

    He's on a mission from God...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,019
    edited July 14
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it.
    Im sure you think that’s a zinger but do share with us how many of those years Kemi was remotely senior enough to have any influence on the Tory government’s direction and overall policies. Junior ministers have little policy power over their own department yet alone wider government policy.

    Oh btw, she was only elected in 2017 so had even less time to wield her ginormous influence on Cameron, May, Boris, Liz and Rishi.
    The welfare bill is out of control. The welfare bill needs to be cut dramatically. Labour just attempted badly and failed miserably.

    My main point stands. She has been in Cabinet during the years the welfare bill ran out of control.

    I am well aware you don't approve of me posting on here, but you can't slap me down with a counter factual. She was in Cabinet when the welfare bill grew.
    What is your obsession with making crap up about what other posters say/think? It’s up there with your Leon obsession.

    Your point about Kemi would be effective if she had been PM or CotE, as she was not she would have absolutely zero control or influence over the growth or not of the Welfare bill during her time in government - you know that but in a desperate attempt to throw out attacks on the enemy you don’t actually use your brain.

    Your main point was “ If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it” which was dumb as pointed out for the fact that she wasn’t in government for the last fifteen years and had no particular influence over government policy. So your main point doesn’t stand and you are trying to shift it because you also realise that your main point was pretty dim.
    She was in Cabinet from 2022 until 2024.

    She is perfectly entitled to point out that welfare is out of control and that once in Government she plans on doing something about it. However she couches it.in terms of Reeves being responsible. Granted Reeves, Starmer and Kendall made one hell of a mess of their botched Welfare Bill, but they didn't create the initial problem.

    My point stands. Did she at any point tell Truss and Sunak. "Blimey the welfare caper, it's out of control don't you know?

    And I can't promise, but I'll try to post less frequently. I'm currently on holiday so I've gone a bit mad with the posting, so sorry for that
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,780

    Rael Braverman
    @raelbrav
    ·
    1h
    🚨WOW: First poll including new Corbyn party released:

    REF: 34%
    CON: 17%
    LAB: 15%
    Corbyn/Sultana party: 15%
    LDM: 9%
    GRE: 5%
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,780
    I know the poll has already been posted, I just wanted to post it myself for ABSOLUTE SHITS AND GIGS
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,451
    Isn't only supposed to be of about 150 people and their pets ?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,944


    Prof. Frank McDonough
    @FXMC1957

    14 July 1933. German Chancellor Adolf Hitler decreed that all political parties in Germany were banned except for the Nazi Party (NSDAP). In less than 6 months after coming to power Hitler had destroyed democracy in Germany.

    https://x.com/FXMC1957/status/1944673227751490027

    This was less than 6 months after the Reichstag fire. We maybe have not had that 'Reichstag fire' moment yet in Trump's regime. But the next elections are all of 16 months away. Keep watching.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,019
    Leon said:


    Rael Braverman
    @raelbrav
    ·
    1h
    🚨WOW: First poll including new Corbyn party released:

    REF: 34%
    CON: 17%
    LAB: 15%
    Corbyn/Sultana party: 15%
    LDM: 9%
    GRE: 5%

    Third time lucky?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,557

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it.
    Im sure you think that’s a zinger but do share with us how many of those years Kemi was remotely senior enough to have any influence on the Tory government’s direction and overall policies. Junior ministers have little policy power over their own department yet alone wider government policy.

    Oh btw, she was only elected in 2017 so had even less time to wield her ginormous influence on Cameron, May, Boris, Liz and Rishi.
    The welfare bill is out of control. The welfare bill needs to be cut dramatically. Labour just attempted badly and failed miserably.

    My main point stands. She has been in Cabinet during the years the welfare bill ran out of control.

    I am well aware you don't approve of me posting on here, but you can't slap me down with a counter factual. She was in Cabinet when the welfare bill grew.
    What is your obsession with making crap up about what other posters say/think? It’s up there with your Leon obsession.

    Your point about Kemi would be effective if she had been PM or CotE, as she was not she would have absolutely zero control or influence over the growth or not of the Welfare bill during her time in government - you know that but in a desperate attempt to throw out attacks on the enemy you don’t actually use your brain.

    Your main point was “ If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it” which was dumb as pointed out for the fact that she wasn’t in government for the last fifteen years and had no particular influence over government policy. So your main point doesn’t stand and you are trying to shift it because you also realise that your main point was pretty dim.
    She was in Cabinet from 2022 until 2024.

    She is perfectly entitled to point out that welfare is out of control and that once in Government she plans on doing something about it. However she couches it.in terms of Reeves being responsible. Granted Reeves, Starmer and Kendall made one hell of a mess of their botched Welfare Bill, but they didn't create the initial problem.

    My point stands. Did she at any point tell Truss and Sunak. "Blimey the welfare caper, it's out of control don't you know?

    And I can't promise, but I'll try to post less frequently. I'm currently on holiday so I've gone a bit mad with the posting, so sorry for that
    Post as much as you like, nobody is asking you to reduce your output and nobody should either.

    We won’t know if she criticised welfare whilst in cabinet because of collective responsibility so for all we know this was a real problem for her and she is now finding the legs to push in a direction she believes in, but she had zero power to do do anything about it in the short time she was in Caninet.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,780

    Isn't only supposed to be of about 150 people and their pets ?

    658 or summat. So, small. And, also, hypothetical

    Nonetheless it is worthy of note, with caveats, and it is FECKING HILARIOUS
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,780

    Leon said:


    Rael Braverman
    @raelbrav
    ·
    1h
    🚨WOW: First poll including new Corbyn party released:

    REF: 34%
    CON: 17%
    LAB: 15%
    Corbyn/Sultana party: 15%
    LDM: 9%
    GRE: 5%

    Third time lucky?
    oh, c'mon, it is funny

    Labour could go FOURTH
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,451
    The Labour left has form in handing a rightwing majority, as written below.

    In fact the divided left handed Thatcher power for a decade.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,557
    algarkirk said:


    Prof. Frank McDonough
    @FXMC1957

    14 July 1933. German Chancellor Adolf Hitler decreed that all political parties in Germany were banned except for the Nazi Party (NSDAP). In less than 6 months after coming to power Hitler had destroyed democracy in Germany.

    https://x.com/FXMC1957/status/1944673227751490027

    This was less than 6 months after the Reichstag fire. We maybe have not had that 'Reichstag fire' moment yet in Trump's regime. But the next elections are all of 16 months away. Keep watching.
    Someone needs to get Melania pushing him in the right direction on all policies, it took six months but might be the difference for Ukraine, let’s hope she starts pointing out their friends can’t find a gardener for their Mar a Lago Pad as they’ve all been deported.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,557
    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    Rael Braverman
    @raelbrav
    ·
    1h
    🚨WOW: First poll including new Corbyn party released:

    REF: 34%
    CON: 17%
    LAB: 15%
    Corbyn/Sultana party: 15%
    LDM: 9%
    GRE: 5%

    Third time lucky?
    oh, c'mon, it is funny

    Labour could go FOURTH
    Go fourth and multiply?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,894
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it.
    Im sure you think that’s a zinger but do share with us how many of those years Kemi was remotely senior enough to have any influence on the Tory government’s direction and overall policies. Junior ministers have little policy power over their own department yet alone wider government policy.

    Oh btw, she was only elected in 2017 so had even less time to wield her ginormous influence on Cameron, May, Boris, Liz and Rishi.
    The welfare bill is out of control. The welfare bill needs to be cut dramatically. Labour just attempted badly and failed miserably.

    My main point stands. She has been in Cabinet during the years the welfare bill ran out of control.

    I am well aware you don't approve of me posting on here, but you can't slap me down with a counter factual. She was in Cabinet when the welfare bill grew.
    What is your obsession with making crap up about what other posters say/think? It’s up there with your Leon obsession.

    Your point about Kemi would be effective if she had been PM or CotE, as she was not she would have absolutely zero control or influence over the growth or not of the Welfare bill during her time in government - you know that but in a desperate attempt to throw out attacks on the enemy you don’t actually use your brain.

    Your main point was “ If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it” which was dumb as pointed out for the fact that she wasn’t in government for the last fifteen years and had no particular influence over government policy. So your main point doesn’t stand and you are trying to shift it because you also realise that your main point was pretty dim.
    She was in Cabinet from 2022 until 2024.

    She is perfectly entitled to point out that welfare is out of control and that once in Government she plans on doing something about it. However she couches it.in terms of Reeves being responsible. Granted Reeves, Starmer and Kendall made one hell of a mess of their botched Welfare Bill, but they didn't create the initial problem.

    My point stands. Did she at any point tell Truss and Sunak. "Blimey the welfare caper, it's out of control don't you know?

    And I can't promise, but I'll try to post less frequently. I'm currently on holiday so I've gone a bit mad with the posting, so sorry for that
    Post as much as you like, nobody is asking you to reduce your output and nobody should either.

    We won’t know if she criticised welfare whilst in cabinet because of collective responsibility so for all we know this was a real problem for her and she is now finding the legs to push in a direction she believes in, but she had zero power to do do anything about it in the short time she was in Caninet.
    I think we are entitled to start asking some more granular questions about what a future Conservative Government (no giggling in the cheap seats, please) would do to try to achieve this "fiscal restraint" as the Times calls it.

    What would she cut from welfare and how much? What other areas does she see as being open to further "restraint"? Presumably not defence, you'd think and we have to pay our debt interest so where else and to what extent? Perhaps more significantly, what does she need as being the first measure to bring about economic growth?

    If we are going to be asked to swallow some "hard truths", what are these truths as Kemi Badenoch sees them?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,944
    stodge said:

    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    It's clear both the Mail and the Times have for now given up their fixation on Reform - they could switch back nearer the election as they'd rather back a winner but we'll see.

    The new groups to be demonised, it seems, is anyone on "welfare" so that includes pensioners I presume, It's a big part of Government expenditure.

    However, it needs more than tinkering around with welfare to resolve the public finances and while the Times no doubt wants to see big spending cuts (and tax cuts I imagine), Badenoch hasn't gone that far and no one else has yet publicly committed to the kind of "hard truths" for which the Times is calling.
    Labour recently tried and failed to deliver a tiny sum in this direction, and failed by many miles to get close.

    The sorts of figures needed to deliver real change ie, who loses how much free money is so gigantic that I have not seen anyone in politics write them down in plain terms. I have given examples in a post recently upthread.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,557
    stodge said:

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it.
    Im sure you think that’s a zinger but do share with us how many of those years Kemi was remotely senior enough to have any influence on the Tory government’s direction and overall policies. Junior ministers have little policy power over their own department yet alone wider government policy.

    Oh btw, she was only elected in 2017 so had even less time to wield her ginormous influence on Cameron, May, Boris, Liz and Rishi.
    The welfare bill is out of control. The welfare bill needs to be cut dramatically. Labour just attempted badly and failed miserably.

    My main point stands. She has been in Cabinet during the years the welfare bill ran out of control.

    I am well aware you don't approve of me posting on here, but you can't slap me down with a counter factual. She was in Cabinet when the welfare bill grew.
    What is your obsession with making crap up about what other posters say/think? It’s up there with your Leon obsession.

    Your point about Kemi would be effective if she had been PM or CotE, as she was not she would have absolutely zero control or influence over the growth or not of the Welfare bill during her time in government - you know that but in a desperate attempt to throw out attacks on the enemy you don’t actually use your brain.

    Your main point was “ If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it” which was dumb as pointed out for the fact that she wasn’t in government for the last fifteen years and had no particular influence over government policy. So your main point doesn’t stand and you are trying to shift it because you also realise that your main point was pretty dim.
    She was in Cabinet from 2022 until 2024.

    She is perfectly entitled to point out that welfare is out of control and that once in Government she plans on doing something about it. However she couches it.in terms of Reeves being responsible. Granted Reeves, Starmer and Kendall made one hell of a mess of their botched Welfare Bill, but they didn't create the initial problem.

    My point stands. Did she at any point tell Truss and Sunak. "Blimey the welfare caper, it's out of control don't you know?

    And I can't promise, but I'll try to post less frequently. I'm currently on holiday so I've gone a bit mad with the posting, so sorry for that
    Post as much as you like, nobody is asking you to reduce your output and nobody should either.

    We won’t know if she criticised welfare whilst in cabinet because of collective responsibility so for all we know this was a real problem for her and she is now finding the legs to push in a direction she believes in, but she had zero power to do do anything about it in the short time she was in Caninet.
    I think we are entitled to start asking some more granular questions about what a future Conservative Government (no giggling in the cheap seats, please) would do to try to achieve this "fiscal restraint" as the Times calls it.

    What would she cut from welfare and how much? What other areas does she see as being open to further "restraint"? Presumably not defence, you'd think and we have to pay our debt interest so where else and to what extent? Perhaps more significantly, what does she need as being the first measure to bring about economic growth?

    If we are going to be asked to swallow some "hard truths", what are these truths as Kemi Badenoch sees them?
    Yes, there is no point in them carping on the sidelines, not being brave and still not winning the next election anyway.

    They should convene groups of experienced ex politicians, business people, experts* who want a recovered party etc into cells to look at specific areas, probably based on gov departments, to look at how things can be done better and preferably for less money. Take two years to do it well and produce a well thought out and tested set of policies for every department.

    Then they can say, “you might not like these things but they need to be done, we’ve tested the shit out of them and you can choose this fix or continue to listen to tales of unicorns and free puppies where someone else pays and you get all you want”. If they still lose then the country deserves to go down the plug hole.

    * not spotty Spads straight out of uni who are trying to climb the greasy pole and have no real life or political experience.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,070
    For any podcast enjoyers :

    https://www.econtalk.org/how-to-walk-the-world-with-chris-arnade/

    Traveller who speaks quite engagingly about long walks and off-beaten trails. For balance, there's quite a lot of AI talk in other episodes :

    https://www.econtalk.org/
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,451
    A taste of BBC2 as it was on BBC4 tonight ; a long documentary on the Peruvian writer abd politician Mario Vargos Losa, from 1990.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,780
    Thing about Jezbollah is, there really is a large minority of people who want red in tooth and claw socialism, NOT Greenery, NOT Lib Dem faffing, they want full on quasi-commie left wingery. And they are also a big chunk of Labour voters as is. And Starmer will never give them the IslamoMarxism they want

    So I can easily see them getting 15%, if you add in the Muslim vote. This is a terrifying threat for Labour. Corbyn must press the Go button to amuse the nation
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,739
    You low IQ twits.

    Hypothetical polls are bobbins.

    IIRC the highest poll that Change UK polled was 18% and there was a private poll a few weeks before they launched that in a hypothetical poll had them polling 35%.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,070

    Change UK went from 18% to 1% or not registering very quickly.
    Corbyn will get a handful of jaw dropper polls early on (if the old fool ever actually launches this bloody party) but will soon fade down to mid single figures. I reckon Dried Fruits and the Greens will share 10 to 15% with Labour losing maybe 2 or 3 points off their current polling and the LDs similarly might lose a point or two (much less certain on that score but I fancy the youngest cohort LDs might peel off a bit)

    It might take a bit of pressure of the centre-left if the looney-left heads Corbyn's way. They can bicker and in-fight over there, rather than sully themselves with trying to govern.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,455

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it.
    Im sure you think that’s a zinger but do share with us how many of those years Kemi was remotely senior enough to have any influence on the Tory government’s direction and overall policies. Junior ministers have little policy power over their own department yet alone wider government policy.

    Oh btw, she was only elected in 2017 so had even less time to wield her ginormous influence on Cameron, May, Boris, Liz and Rishi.
    The welfare bill is out of control. The welfare bill needs to be cut dramatically. Labour just attempted badly and failed miserably.

    My main point stands. She has been in Cabinet during the years the welfare bill ran out of control.

    I am well aware you don't approve of me posting on here, but you can't slap me down with a counter factual. She was in Cabinet when the welfare bill grew.
    What is your obsession with making crap up about what other posters say/think? It’s up there with your Leon obsession.

    Your point about Kemi would be effective if she had been PM or CotE, as she was not she would have absolutely zero control or influence over the growth or not of the Welfare bill during her time in government - you know that but in a desperate attempt to throw out attacks on the enemy you don’t actually use your brain.

    Your main point was “ If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it” which was dumb as pointed out for the fact that she wasn’t in government for the last fifteen years and had no particular influence over government policy. So your main point doesn’t stand and you are trying to shift it because you also realise that your main point was pretty dim.
    She was in Cabinet from 2022 until 2024.

    She is perfectly entitled to point out that welfare is out of control and that once in Government she plans on doing something about it. However she couches it.in terms of Reeves being responsible. Granted Reeves, Starmer and Kendall made one hell of a mess of their botched Welfare Bill, but they didn't create the initial problem.

    My point stands. Did she at any point tell Truss and Sunak. "Blimey the welfare caper, it's out of control don't you know?

    And I can't promise, but I'll try to post less frequently. I'm currently on holiday so I've gone a bit mad with the posting, so sorry for that
    I disagree with you on many things but read all of your posts when I can and would be very disappointed if you felt you had to reduce posting for any reason other than personal choice.

    I also tend to post in bursts, mostly because of work pressures, so understand entirely what it is like to suddenly have the time and the inclination to get stuck in.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,019
    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    Rael Braverman
    @raelbrav
    ·
    1h
    🚨WOW: First poll including new Corbyn party released:

    REF: 34%
    CON: 17%
    LAB: 15%
    Corbyn/Sultana party: 15%
    LDM: 9%
    GRE: 5%

    Third time lucky?
    oh, c'mon, it is funny

    Labour could go FOURTH
    If it wasn't a bogus poll ( I know a ban is appropriate for dissing a BPC member, and you are perfectly welcome to flag, but this is rubbish- polling a party that doesn't exist yet).

    If it were a genuine poll it would be remarkable.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,780

    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    Rael Braverman
    @raelbrav
    ·
    1h
    🚨WOW: First poll including new Corbyn party released:

    REF: 34%
    CON: 17%
    LAB: 15%
    Corbyn/Sultana party: 15%
    LDM: 9%
    GRE: 5%

    Third time lucky?
    oh, c'mon, it is funny

    Labour could go FOURTH
    If it wasn't a bogus poll ( I know a ban is appropriate for dissing a BPC member, and you are perfectly welcome to flag, but this is rubbish- polling a party that doesn't exist yet).

    If it were a genuine poll it would be remarkable.
    And...... it's still funny

    Hypothetical, small sample size, etc etc, but still funny
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,070

    Talking of Russian bots, have they decided that PB isn't as important as they thought ?

    Haven't seen any of them for a while.

    I miss those days. BA pilots - I've no idea if they are still mysteriously dropping like flies. No-one is 'just asking the question' anymore. Sad times. Possibly all sent to the front by now I guess so have other things on their minds. Like avoiding being shot by their commander or standing on a clumsily placed land-mine.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,944
    edited July 14
    stodge said:

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it.
    Im sure you think that’s a zinger but do share with us how many of those years Kemi was remotely senior enough to have any influence on the Tory government’s direction and overall policies. Junior ministers have little policy power over their own department yet alone wider government policy.

    Oh btw, she was only elected in 2017 so had even less time to wield her ginormous influence on Cameron, May, Boris, Liz and Rishi.
    The welfare bill is out of control. The welfare bill needs to be cut dramatically. Labour just attempted badly and failed miserably.

    My main point stands. She has been in Cabinet during the years the welfare bill ran out of control.

    I am well aware you don't approve of me posting on here, but you can't slap me down with a counter factual. She was in Cabinet when the welfare bill grew.
    What is your obsession with making crap up about what other posters say/think? It’s up there with your Leon obsession.

    Your point about Kemi would be effective if she had been PM or CotE, as she was not she would have absolutely zero control or influence over the growth or not of the Welfare bill during her time in government - you know that but in a desperate attempt to throw out attacks on the enemy you don’t actually use your brain.

    Your main point was “ If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it” which was dumb as pointed out for the fact that she wasn’t in government for the last fifteen years and had no particular influence over government policy. So your main point doesn’t stand and you are trying to shift it because you also realise that your main point was pretty dim.
    She was in Cabinet from 2022 until 2024.

    She is perfectly entitled to point out that welfare is out of control and that once in Government she plans on doing something about it. However she couches it.in terms of Reeves being responsible. Granted Reeves, Starmer and Kendall made one hell of a mess of their botched Welfare Bill, but they didn't create the initial problem.

    My point stands. Did she at any point tell Truss and Sunak. "Blimey the welfare caper, it's out of control don't you know?

    And I can't promise, but I'll try to post less frequently. I'm currently on holiday so I've gone a bit mad with the posting, so sorry for that
    Post as much as you like, nobody is asking you to reduce your output and nobody should either.

    We won’t know if she criticised welfare whilst in cabinet because of collective responsibility so for all we know this was a real problem for her and she is now finding the legs to push in a direction she believes in, but she had zero power to do do anything about it in the short time she was in Caninet.
    I think we are entitled to start asking some more granular questions about what a future Conservative Government (no giggling in the cheap seats, please) would do to try to achieve this "fiscal restraint" as the Times calls it.

    What would she cut from welfare and how much? What other areas does she see as being open to further "restraint"? Presumably not defence, you'd think and we have to pay our debt interest so where else and to what extent? Perhaps more significantly, what does she need as being the first measure to bring about economic growth?

    If we are going to be asked to swallow some "hard truths", what are these truths as Kemi Badenoch sees them?
    Apply all this more relevantly to Reform, as they are more likely than the Tories to be in power. You only have to look at Kemi, The Times, Mail, Reform, GB News and a million journalists to know that 'Hard Truths' and 'Spending Cuts' are essential. But even the journalists, who after all have no accountability to anyone, will not spell out what it actually might mean in how much hard cash to which recipients. Until you are that 'granular' level it's all talk.

    A fairly small £5billion savings is taking £5000 from 1 million people. Who? How?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,194
    stodge said:

    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    It's clear both the Mail and the Times have for now given up their fixation on Reform - they could switch back nearer the election as they'd rather back a winner but we'll see.

    The new groups to be demonised, it seems, is anyone on "welfare" so that includes pensioners I presume, It's a big part of Government expenditure.

    However, it needs more than tinkering around with welfare to resolve the public finances and while the Times no doubt wants to see big spending cuts (and tax cuts I imagine), Badenoch hasn't gone that far and no one else has yet publicly committed to the kind of "hard truths" for which the Times is calling.
    Yes, I suspect Nigel's tilt towards Leftism has has rather blotted his copybook with some of the media gatekeepers of the British Right. Immigrant bashing plus Thatcherism they could handle; Immigrant bashing plus socialism won't seem like a recipe for successful government. The latter will probably be better for Nigel electorally, of course, but it's unlikely to earn him any long-term friends.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,780

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    isam said:

    The Times edging towards coming out for Kemi. I hope they’re right, I still think she could be good


    Kemi Badenoch is right that the welfare system is a fiscal disaster

    There is an obvious gap in the political market that Ms Badenoch can fill: the cause of fiscal restraint. The Tories should never have given up their belief in a smaller state, but it is welcome to see them return to it. It is ever more likely that the UK is heading for a financial crunch this autumn, as Rachel Reeves’s mishandling of the economy risks creating a vast fiscal black hole. The unsustainable welfare bill is at the heart of the problem and voters now appreciate that it must be tackled. The time for hard truths is fast approaching.



    https://www.thetimes.com/article/90e60687-5fbf-4c72-8b8d-ad43d7f23694?shareToken=c72a4a00fca348000b10564bde599bd7

    If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it.
    Im sure you think that’s a zinger but do share with us how many of those years Kemi was remotely senior enough to have any influence on the Tory government’s direction and overall policies. Junior ministers have little policy power over their own department yet alone wider government policy.

    Oh btw, she was only elected in 2017 so had even less time to wield her ginormous influence on Cameron, May, Boris, Liz and Rishi.
    The welfare bill is out of control. The welfare bill needs to be cut dramatically. Labour just attempted badly and failed miserably.

    My main point stands. She has been in Cabinet during the years the welfare bill ran out of control.

    I am well aware you don't approve of me posting on here, but you can't slap me down with a counter factual. She was in Cabinet when the welfare bill grew.
    What is your obsession with making crap up about what other posters say/think? It’s up there with your Leon obsession.

    Your point about Kemi would be effective if she had been PM or CotE, as she was not she would have absolutely zero control or influence over the growth or not of the Welfare bill during her time in government - you know that but in a desperate attempt to throw out attacks on the enemy you don’t actually use your brain.

    Your main point was “ If only she'd been in Government in the last fifteen years, she could have done something about it” which was dumb as pointed out for the fact that she wasn’t in government for the last fifteen years and had no particular influence over government policy. So your main point doesn’t stand and you are trying to shift it because you also realise that your main point was pretty dim.
    She was in Cabinet from 2022 until 2024.

    She is perfectly entitled to point out that welfare is out of control and that once in Government she plans on doing something about it. However she couches it.in terms of Reeves being responsible. Granted Reeves, Starmer and Kendall made one hell of a mess of their botched Welfare Bill, but they didn't create the initial problem.

    My point stands. Did she at any point tell Truss and Sunak. "Blimey the welfare caper, it's out of control don't you know?

    And I can't promise, but I'll try to post less frequently. I'm currently on holiday so I've gone a bit mad with the posting, so sorry for that
    I disagree with you on many things but read all of your posts when I can and would be very disappointed if you felt you had to reduce posting for any reason other than personal choice.

    I also tend to post in bursts, mostly because of work pressures, so understand entirely what it is like to suddenly have the time and the inclination to get stuck in.
    I agree, @Mexicanpete should never feel that he is "posting too much" (nor should anyone else)

    Also, he is obsessed with me, and as an Official Narcissist, that pleases me

    Pray continue with your chippy plebiean maunderings, @Mexicanpete
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,019
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    Rael Braverman
    @raelbrav
    ·
    1h
    🚨WOW: First poll including new Corbyn party released:

    REF: 34%
    CON: 17%
    LAB: 15%
    Corbyn/Sultana party: 15%
    LDM: 9%
    GRE: 5%

    Third time lucky?
    oh, c'mon, it is funny

    Labour could go FOURTH
    If it wasn't a bogus poll ( I know a ban is appropriate for dissing a BPC member, and you are perfectly welcome to flag, but this is rubbish- polling a party that doesn't exist yet).

    If it were a genuine poll it would be remarkable.
    And...... it's still funny

    Hypothetical, small sample size, etc etc, but still funny
    I remember the days when posting Scottish subsamples got posters banned, and this is far more egregious.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,904
    edited July 14

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1944814548948484373

    New poll with FindOutNow:

    Reform: 34%
    Conservatives: 17%
    Labour: 15% 🤯
    New ‘Corbyn-Sultana party: 15%
    Lib Dems: 9%
    Greens: 5%

    When did a member of the British polling council have Labour that low? If ever?!

    This was posted 5 minutes ago. Does it get better with every posting?

    Have Corbyn and Sultana launched their party yet or are you being very naughty and posting a projected poll with a party that for the moment doesn't exist and purporting it to be a reality, on the foremost political betting website?
    Some of these new pollsters are basically US style ramping outfits as far as I can see.
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