politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Scotland looking so difficult Labour’s big hope is th
If the two main parties are level-pegging in England then that represents a swing of 5.7% on the last general election so, all the above should be potential LAB gains on current England only polling data.
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Given the Scottish situation, Labour would have to win virtually all of these to get anywhere near a majority. The betting markets suggest they'll struggle to take more than about 60% of them.0
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Not to be pedantic, but Cardiff North is a Welsh seat...0
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I think at the moment, Labour are on course to win 25-35 of them.AndyJS said:Given the Scottish situation, Labour would have to win virtually all of these to get anywhere near a majority. The betting markets suggest they'll struggle to take more than about 60% of them.
For the Conservatives to stay in office, they really need to keep direct Labour gains from them down to 20, or less.0 -
I agree with all of this.Casino_Royale said:
I think at the moment, Labour are on course to win 25-35 of them.AndyJS said:Given the Scottish situation, Labour would have to win virtually all of these to get anywhere near a majority. The betting markets suggest they'll struggle to take more than about 60% of them.
For the Conservatives to stay in office, they really need to keep direct Labour gains from them down to 20, or less.0 -
Those 25-35 won't even replace their Scottish losses though. Absent a few more LibDem gains further up the list, hard to see Labour not going backwards in seat numbers. Couple that with Tories most votes and most seats, it is even harder to see the LibDems putting Ed Miliband in power - on any basis other than getting even more Ministerial seats than they currently have.Casino_Royale said:
I think at the moment, Labour are on course to win 25-35 of them.AndyJS said:Given the Scottish situation, Labour would have to win virtually all of these to get anywhere near a majority. The betting markets suggest they'll struggle to take more than about 60% of them.
For the Conservatives to stay in office, they really need to keep direct Labour gains from them down to 20, or less.
So Ed has to fawn and creep to the SNP for the keys to Downing Street. That Tory "nightmare" poster is going to be a formidable weapon in the election...
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The tories start at 304. If they lost 30 to Labour but gained 12 off the Lib Dems they will be at 286 unless they lose any more to UKIP. Labour start at 259 (including Corby) so if they win 30 from the tories and 12 from the Lib Dems they are at 301, less any losses to the SNP. If they lose 20 to the SNP they are at 281 and the tories are the largest party, albeit one that might struggle to put together a viable coalition.Casino_Royale said:
I think at the moment, Labour are on course to win 25-35 of them.AndyJS said:Given the Scottish situation, Labour would have to win virtually all of these to get anywhere near a majority. The betting markets suggest they'll struggle to take more than about 60% of them.
For the Conservatives to stay in office, they really need to keep direct Labour gains from them down to 20, or less.
On that basis I think that 20 is a little low but a lot turns on the extent of the damage in Scotland. Looking at the chart 30 gains from the tories requires a swing of 2.38% which, if my arithmetic is right at this time in the morning, would happen with a tory lead of 4.72%. This is a much higher lead than the Tories seem to be on course for at the moment.
The Scottish factor also has the effect of pushing that required lead up by about another 1% in England and Wales since the differential in Scotland in a 20 loss scenario is going to be massively smaller than it was in 2010.
A tory lead of 6% in England to remain the largest party. Not impossible but a very big ask. Labour biggest party still looks the most likely option.
Edit. I think I have forgotten to double the swing. If so then the tory lead would only need to be 2.34+ say 1% for Scotland. That is more doable.0 -
Whole lot of slight pro Tory shifts in Ladbrokes GE betting markets I hadn't noticed.. PM at Queens speech, Dave in to 4/5 from 5/6; most seats Con 5/6 Lab Evs; most votes Con 8/15 Lab 13/8; OM Con 9/2 Lab 11/2; and over under on seats now both 282.5
Crossover with Shadsy?0 -
This is a really good thread but am a tad disappointed there's nothing about Greek fallout? Even to keep things to these shores, there are implications for the Syriza win.
Anyway, that aside, this will be one to return to as we get closer to the big day. This clearly looks at things from a Labour perspective. From a Conservative one many of our potential gains in E&W will be from the yellows.0 -
Are you telling me that Vicky Pryce was the only Greek economist that the Today Programme could find this morning to talk about the election and its implications?0
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Just listened to R4 Today where GO was interviewed regarding the implications of the Greek election and the EURO being at an eleven year low against the USD. He gave a very measured, calm and assured reply - where was Labour's EdB - nowhere to be seen as Labour's economic policy lacks such breadth - even if they understood what the potential implications are.
Whilst Greece tries to renegotiate/reduce its liabilities over the next month, the markets are likely to be quite volatile. Not only will the result of these negotiations have implications for similar economies e.g Spain, but could have farther-reaching problems for some of the creditor banks from Ireland and Portugal etc.
A break-up of the EZ could overshadow GE20i5.0 -
Assuming 10 gains from the Lib Dems, that would come in at 279-289 Conservative seats.Casino_Royale said:
I think at the moment, Labour are on course to win 25-35 of them.AndyJS said:Given the Scottish situation, Labour would have to win virtually all of these to get anywhere near a majority. The betting markets suggest they'll struggle to take more than about 60% of them.
For the Conservatives to stay in office, they really need to keep direct Labour gains from them down to 20, or less.0 -
George appears to have had media training. Much less shrill than before.Financier said:Just listened to R4 Today where GO was interviewed regarding the implications of the Greek election and the EURO being at an eleven year low against the USD. He gave a very measured, calm and assured reply - where was Labour's EdB - nowhere to be seen as Labour's economic policy lacks such breadth - even if they understood what the potential implications are.
Whilst Greece tries to renegotiate/reduce its liabilities over the next month, the markets are likely to be quite volatile. Not only will the result of these negotiations have implications for similar economies e.g Spain, but could have farther-reaching problems for some of the creditor banks from Ireland and Portugal etc.
A break-up of the EZ could overshadow GE20i5.
Wonder why. ;-)0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Welcome to pb.com, Mr. (?) Penyfro.
Good news! A new game of Diplomacy is ready and waiting for more participants. It can be found at playdiplomacy.com (NB you need to sign up, but it's free) and search for:
Game name: PB Diplomacy V
The password is Hannibal.
Newcomers are welcome.
I must stress that it's important to understand whilst the map makes it look strategic, the focus of Diplomacy is, er, diplomacy. Communicating with other leaders, making and breaking deals, and stabbing your closest allies in the back are all critical to the game. If you don't communicate then it has knock on effects for the other players (you can't make an alliance with a silent player, for example).
I've only played a few games myself, and after a few early errors found it very easy to get into.
If you have any questions, do feel free to ask.0 -
Scottish Labour equals PASOK, SNP equals Syriza?0
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I think that any renegotiations will take months. Probably the biggest effect on the British public will be holidays getting cheaper. €1.34 to the pound is the best its been for ages. Not going to do much for the balance of payments, but cheap holidays and wine!Financier said:Just listened to R4 Today where GO was interviewed regarding the implications of the Greek election and the EURO being at an eleven year low against the USD. He gave a very measured, calm and assured reply - where was Labour's EdB - nowhere to be seen as Labour's economic policy lacks such breadth - even if they understood what the potential implications are.
Whilst Greece tries to renegotiate/reduce its liabilities over the next month, the markets are likely to be quite volatile. Not only will the result of these negotiations have implications for similar economies e.g Spain, but could have farther-reaching problems for some of the creditor banks from Ireland and Portugal etc.
A break-up of the EZ could overshadow GE20i5.0 -
I think you need to remember the timetable here. While Greece needs to secure an extension of current terms at end February, this will be near automatic, so long as substantive talks are in progress. The question of extending loans and lowering coupons won't be decided until very close to the end of July, which is the point by which the Greek government needs to reach agreement to avoid running out of money.Financier said:Just listened to R4 Today where GO was interviewed regarding the implications of the Greek election and the EURO being at an eleven year low against the USD. He gave a very measured, calm and assured reply - where was Labour's EdB - nowhere to be seen as Labour's economic policy lacks such breadth - even if they understood what the potential implications are.
Whilst Greece tries to renegotiate/reduce its liabilities over the next month, the markets are likely to be quite volatile. Not only will the result of these negotiations have implications for similar economies e.g Spain, but could have farther-reaching problems for some of the creditor banks from Ireland and Portugal etc.
A break-up of the EZ could overshadow GE20i5.
It is in neither side (the troika or the Greek government) to come to an agreement before the very last minute - simply because both parties need to convince their own supporters that they were fighting to the last minute for the best possible deal for [European taxpayers/the Greek people] (delete as appropriate).
Any break-up of the Eurozone, following a disorderly Greek default and Grexit would only therefore happen at end July at the earliest. And I think it is likely that the talks will remain almost completely secret up until a deal is (or is not) reached.0 -
Re Greece, before I get down to work and leave PB for the day, apparently current terms to Greece are likely to be extended to end July today - essentially allowing a lot of time for negotiations.0
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First refresh after you mention holidays and I get adverts for Aegean and Cathay Pacific.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that any renegotiations will take months. Probably the biggest effect on the British public will be holidays getting cheaper. €1.34 to the pound is the best its been for ages. Not going to do much for the balance of payments, but cheap holidays and wine!Financier said:Just listened to R4 Today where GO was interviewed regarding the implications of the Greek election and the EURO being at an eleven year low against the USD. He gave a very measured, calm and assured reply - where was Labour's EdB - nowhere to be seen as Labour's economic policy lacks such breadth - even if they understood what the potential implications are.
Whilst Greece tries to renegotiate/reduce its liabilities over the next month, the markets are likely to be quite volatile. Not only will the result of these negotiations have implications for similar economies e.g Spain, but could have farther-reaching problems for some of the creditor banks from Ireland and Portugal etc.
A break-up of the EZ could overshadow GE20i5.0 -
The swing required for Labour to gain Croydon Central is 2.98%, not the 2.90% shown in the graphic above. This is because Gavin Barwell MP got 19,657 votes and therefore a majority of 2,969.
Some sources incorrectly state that he got 19,567 votes (which would mean a majority of 2,879) but this is incorrect.
I keep telling various people and various websites about the correction but it seems that some people are not very good at paying attention.0 -
Good luck to Syriza. I hope they don't fold in negotiations like Cameron's Conservatives do.0
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A disorderly Grexit would be the worst possible thing for the Greeks - with the inevitable destruction of millions of peoples' savings, and effective dramatic cuts to the value of people's wages and pensions.Socrates said:Good luck to Syriza. I hope they don't fold in negotiations like Cameron's Conservatives do.
Are you sure you're not letting your personal views colour what is best for the Greek people?0 -
Errr shouldn't that improve the balance of payments as we are net importers and import a lot of mid technology items from the EU - cars, fridges aluminium and steel.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that any renegotiations will take months. Probably the biggest effect on the British public will be holidays getting cheaper. €1.34 to the pound is the best its been for ages. Not going to do much for the balance of payments, but cheap holidays and wine!Financier said:Just listened to R4 Today where GO was interviewed regarding the implications of the Greek election and the EURO being at an eleven year low against the USD. He gave a very measured, calm and assured reply - where was Labour's EdB - nowhere to be seen as Labour's economic policy lacks such breadth - even if they understood what the potential implications are.
Whilst Greece tries to renegotiate/reduce its liabilities over the next month, the markets are likely to be quite volatile. Not only will the result of these negotiations have implications for similar economies e.g Spain, but could have farther-reaching problems for some of the creditor banks from Ireland and Portugal etc.
A break-up of the EZ could overshadow GE20i5.
It won't do much to help our exports to the EU but then Osborne's emphasis on exports has always been the wrong plan at the wrong time.0 -
An exit from the Euro, or a massive change in terms, are the only possible ways Greece will have a sustained recovery. They will slowly drown under the yoke of the single currency whether they have this deal, or a marginally better one. If they don't really force through changes, they're better off out.rcs1000 said:
A disorderly Grexit would be the worst possible thing for the Greeks - with the inevitable destruction of millions of peoples' savings, and effective dramatic cuts to the value of people's wages and pensions.Socrates said:Good luck to Syriza. I hope they don't fold in negotiations like Cameron's Conservatives do.
Are you sure you're not letting your personal views colour what is best for the Greek people?0 -
If Labour win most votes and most seats, I'll win £0.67 - have just under a grand tied up in the various most seats/votes market - UKIP surging to most votes gives me grief however ;p0
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Mr. Pulpstar, don't spend it all at once.0
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All other votes/seats combos win me more. The markets have got it all wrong, throughout the electoral cycle imo.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, don't spend it all at once.
Also Ed M next PM should be shorter than Lab most seats.0 -
I detest the anti-democratic EU as much as anyone. And I very much wish that Greece can find a way to leave the Euro and succeed with its own currency. But....I never underestimate the deep well of statist power that is the Brussels machine. The chances for Greece to have the will, and the means and to succeed in the face of the EUSSR elite are not that high. Somehow they'll overwhelm Greek freedom.0
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How fitting that you should use the name of the greatest general of the ancient world.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Welcome to pb.com, Mr. (?) Penyfro.
Good news! A new game of Diplomacy is ready and waiting for more participants. It can be found at playdiplomacy.com (NB you need to sign up, but it's free) and search for:
Game name: PB Diplomacy V
The password is Hannibal.
Newcomers are welcome.
I must stress that it's important to understand whilst the map makes it look strategic, the focus of Diplomacy is, er, diplomacy. Communicating with other leaders, making and breaking deals, and stabbing your closest allies in the back are all critical to the game. If you don't communicate then it has knock on effects for the other players (you can't make an alliance with a silent player, for example).
I've only played a few games myself, and after a few early errors found it very easy to get into.
If you have any questions, do feel free to ask.
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Mr. Pulpstar, although much shorter than an electoral cycle, it's fun when that happens in F1 (like last year, when Rosberg was 24/1 on Betfair and 16/1 on Ladbrokes). Pretty rubbish when *I'm* the one who cocks up his forecast, though...
Mr. F, I'm hoping to inspire players, who should recall how Hannibal secured the allegiance of numerous Gallic tribes, Italian cities and Philip of Macedon through his ceaseless diplomatic efforts.0 -
Diplomacy: we're at 7 players, huzzah!
Please confirm participation, if you're playing. Doing so is necessary for the game to kick off.0 -
Talking of Betfair.... another day, another nudge away from the reds...
Most seats
Blue hearts of gold 1.93/1.94
Labour debts of old 2.10/2.120 -
Not to mention the leader of the A-Team.Sean_F said:
How fitting that you should use the name of the greatest general of the ancient world.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Welcome to pb.com, Mr. (?) Penyfro.
Good news! A new game of Diplomacy is ready and waiting for more participants. It can be found at playdiplomacy.com (NB you need to sign up, but it's free) and search for:
Game name: PB Diplomacy V
The password is Hannibal.
Newcomers are welcome.
I must stress that it's important to understand whilst the map makes it look strategic, the focus of Diplomacy is, er, diplomacy. Communicating with other leaders, making and breaking deals, and stabbing your closest allies in the back are all critical to the game. If you don't communicate then it has knock on effects for the other players (you can't make an alliance with a silent player, for example).
I've only played a few games myself, and after a few early errors found it very easy to get into.
If you have any questions, do feel free to ask.
I love it when a plan comes together.0 -
We don't mention such things.JonnyJimmy said:Whole lot of slight pro Tory shifts in Ladbrokes GE betting markets I hadn't noticed.. PM at Queens speech, Dave in to 4/5 from 5/6; most seats Con 5/6 Lab Evs; most votes Con 8/15 Lab 13/8; OM Con 9/2 Lab 11/2; and over under on seats now both 282.5
Crossover with Shadsy?0 -
Osborne on Greece:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2926102/Cameron-warning-Syriza-win.html
I'm still waiting for the Two Eds to endorse Peter Hain's take:
Labour's former Europe minister Peter Hain compared the measures imposed on the Greeks to the restrictions placed upon Germany after the First World War.
On Twitter he said: "Fantastic Syriza win: austerity does not work for Greece, for Tory/Lib Dem UK, nor for EU; we all need investment in growth not savage cuts."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2926102/Cameron-warning-Syriza-win.html#ixzz3PunGZmSq0 -
A quietish weekend on the front - we launched our internal campaign but that was simply getting 60 people together to agree what gets done when. Uneventful canvassing with the response as before, judging by swing from previous responses on target for a moderate majority about 7%ish. The most startling moment was a chap who said he'd vote Labour only if we promised NOT to give nurses a 1% pay rise - "they're just greedy!" Greed=1% - modern Britain, sigh.
Still no LIbDem candidate, though one is expected in a month's time. We're not expecting them to do more than put out an election address. There is however a new candidate causing some hilarity: https://j4mb.wordpress.com/ . I'd like to say that he'd split the UKIP vote, but to be honest I haven't yet a single supporter. Early days, perhaps.0 -
Morning all,
Looks like an increasingly important issue will be how much of Lab's swing will be side tracked into Green anti-austerity protest votes? Can the party get the message out that this will only help the Tories and squeeze the protest? At the moment it looks unlikely but we have 101 days to go.0 -
But the Greek people do not want to leave the EU or drop the Euro. They want to maintain both, and merely cut their bailout debt in half, pump up spending, and turn the clocks back about a decade to when they could borrow as freely as though Greeks were Germans.Patrick said:I detest the anti-democratic EU as much as anyone. And I very much wish that Greece can find a way to leave the Euro and succeed with its own currency. But....I never underestimate the deep well of statist power that is the Brussels machine. The chances for Greece to have the will, and the means and to succeed in the face of the EUSSR elite are not that high. Somehow they'll overwhelm Greek freedom.
Completely reasonable demands and not at all mad.0 -
Any sign of an up-tick in Green % from your canvassing Nick?NickPalmer said:A quietish weekend on the front - we launched our internal campaign but that was simply getting 60 people together to agree what gets done when. Uneventful canvassing with the response as before, judging by swing from previous responses on target for a moderate majority about 7%ish. The most startling moment was a chap who said he'd vote Labour only if we promised NOT to give nurses a 1% pay rise - "they're just greedy!" Greed=1% - modern Britain, sigh.
Still no LIbDem candidate, though one is expected in a month's time. We're not expecting them to do more than put out an election address. There is however a new candidate causing some hilarity: https://j4mb.wordpress.com/ . I'd like to say that he'd split the UKIP vote, but to be honest I haven't yet a single supporter. Early days, perhaps.0 -
But have we already seen the death of universal swing? Is there a logic for saying that Labour are going to swap a fiefdom in Scotland for one in England. If the polls are level or slight tory lead they are saying they do not want labour govt - so are people going to vote for that in individual constituencies?0
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Hi Morris DancerMorris_Dancer said:Diplomacy: we're at 7 players, huzzah!
Please confirm participation, if you're playing. Doing so is necessary for the game to kick off.
I can't seem to find the game on playdiplomacy.com. Do you need to be logged in to do a proper search?0 -
Despite his Greece comments, Peter Hain is not one of the 16 signatories:
A group of 16 Labour MPs have issued a public statement this morning, expressing concern about elements of Labour’s policy agenda, and urging a change of course in three key areas. The letter – signed by MPs on the left of the Parliamentary Labour Party – calls for an alternative to Labour’s current deficit reduction plans, public ownership of the railways and a return to collective bargaining and employment rights in the workplace.
http://labourlist.org/2015/01/16-labour-mps-release-statement-calling-for-change-in-party-policy-direction/0 -
Not really. Greece has not really been able to govern itself properly or responsibly since it ceased to be part of the Ottoman Empire. If they want German interest rates they must show German responsibility. They can't. What they need is the freedom to devalue the Drachma. Failing independent borrowers always have the 'trash your currency' option. They have no hope whatever of a return to their prior living standards whilst still in the Euro.glw said:
Completely reasonable demands and not at all mad.Patrick said:I detest the anti-democratic EU as much as anyone. And I very much wish that Greece can find a way to leave the Euro and succeed with its own currency. But....I never underestimate the deep well of statist power that is the Brussels machine. The chances for Greece to have the will, and the means and to succeed in the face of the EUSSR elite are not that high. Somehow they'll overwhelm Greek freedom.
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Daniel Hannan: When the EU made Greece its responsibility, it licensed Greeks to be irresponsible. #Syriza is the product of an infantilised electorate.0
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Note - the chart has been revised
...to take Cardiff out of England!!0 -
Mr. Borough, each game takes 7 players, so I'm afraid there's no space available in this game. However, I'm sure we'll run another at some point [it's also possible to watch a game, and see the publicly available messages, which can be interesting/of use if you haven't played before].
You need to log-in. Then go to the Games tab and, under that, Join Game. There you can search for the game name.0 -
The problems are economic. Greece is tied to a currency which does not suit their economy. But by running away from the problem they walk into another one - devaluation and a depreciating drachma. Greece has always tried to devalue its problems away previously and at times that has led to military dictatorships. It ran away from problems to get into the Euro and its now running away from problems to get out of it and it will keep running away. If so its depreciating currency will impose its own austerity. The notion that extreme socialism will solve their problems is delusional, they will end up impoverished by another route.Patrick said:I detest the anti-democratic EU as much as anyone. And I very much wish that Greece can find a way to leave the Euro and succeed with its own currency. But....I never underestimate the deep well of statist power that is the Brussels machine. The chances for Greece to have the will, and the means and to succeed in the face of the EUSSR elite are not that high. Somehow they'll overwhelm Greek freedom.
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No wonder Hollywood produces so many Prison movies, they are just spreading the word.
The USA: land of the free!Most people in prison (count) 1 US 2 China 3 Russia 4 Brazil 5 India 11 Turkey 24 Germany http://t.co/q7o4al3M2b pic.twitter.com/Becny1UWVh
— Conrad Hackett (@conradhackett) January 26, 20150 -
Couldn't you replace it with a Scottish one.....to wake the Nats up! :|Innocent Face|:MikeSmithson said:Note - the chart has been revised
...to take Cardiff out of England!!0 -
That's fine - I was only planning to watch. I've not played Diplomacy for about 25 years, so would need to get back up to speed before playing a real game.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Borough, each game takes 7 players, so I'm afraid there's no space available in this game. However, I'm sure we'll run another at some point [it's also possible to watch a game, and see the publicly available messages, which can be interesting/of use if you haven't played before].
You need to log-in. Then go to the Games tab and, under that, Join Game. There you can search for the game name.
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Yes, in a small way - we're encountering individuals here and there who say they're tossing up between the LibDems, Greens and us. An explanation of the tactical situation and my record in environment and animal welfare issues usually though not always works. Obviously we won't get to talk to everyone like that so it's important to have targeted mailings for people interested in this (almost nobody positively objects to environmental and animal welfare concern so we can afford a fairly broad brush), for which the quite extensive canvass records are very useful.rottenborough said:
Any sign of an up-tick in Green % from your canvassing Nick?
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Former Respect politician who is now the conservatives most prominent Yorkshire Muslim takes aim at Ukip Thurrock activist
Amjad Bashir (@AmjadBashirMEP)
26/01/2015 00:49
@Michael_Heaver @GuidoFawkes only vermin, like you, abuse hospitality food & drink then piss and shit in same plate
Account hacked??0 -
Why don't you just send them the Youtube link of Natalie Bennett's car crash interview?NickPalmer said:
Yes, in a small way - we're encountering individuals here and there who say they're tossing up between the LibDems, Greens and us. An explanation of the tactical situation and my record in environment and animal welfare issues usually though not always works. Obviously we won't get to talk to everyone like that so it's important to have targeted mailings for people interested in this (almost nobody positively objects to environmental and animal welfare concern so we can afford a fairly broad brush), for which the quite extensive canvass records are very useful.rottenborough said:
Any sign of an up-tick in Green % from your canvassing Nick?0 -
MikeK said:
No wonder Hollywood produces so many Prison movies, they are just spreading the word.
The USA: land of the free!Most people in prison (count) 1 US 2 China 3 Russia 4 Brazil 5 India 11 Turkey 24 Germany http://t.co/q7o4al3M2b pic.twitter.com/Becny1UWVh
— Conrad Hackett (@conradhackett) January 26, 2015
Life inside a US prison (if you don't belong to a powerful gang) sounds terrifying.0 -
Greece has two options:
1. Fast and painful adjustment, as they leave the Euro and default on their debts. This will decimate the savings and pensions of the old, but will probably bring unemployment down quicker. (That being said, there will be no 'end to austerity', as outside the Euro, there would be no ability for the government to borrow - what with them still being in hock to the IMF - and therefore the requirement to balance the budget would remain.)
2. Slow and painful adjustment, as wages fall through being cut or jobs being lost.
At the end of the day, Greeks (like everybody else) needs to compete on the world stage. The only question is whether that is achieved through slow grinding down of incomes, or through the one-off hit of devaluation.
SYRIZA claims that Greeks can keep their high incomes, pensions and savings through staying in the Euro, while ending the requirement to run a balanced budget.
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I agree with the contradictions, I was just saying that the Greeks don't want to leave the EU or Euro, that they have elected a government that makes that more difficult does not seem to matter to them.Patrick said:
Not really. Greece has not really been able to govern itself properly or responsibly since it ceased to be part of the Ottoman Empire. If they want German interest rates they must show German responsibility. They can't. What they need is the freedom to devalue the Drachma. Failing independent borrowers always have the 'trash your currency' option. They have no hope whatever of a return to their prior living standards whilst still in the Euro.glw said:
Completely reasonable demands and not at all mad.Patrick said:I detest the anti-democratic EU as much as anyone. And I very much wish that Greece can find a way to leave the Euro and succeed with its own currency. But....I never underestimate the deep well of statist power that is the Brussels machine. The chances for Greece to have the will, and the means and to succeed in the face of the EUSSR elite are not that high. Somehow they'll overwhelm Greek freedom.
They want to have their cake and eat it, and a bit of that German cake too if nobody minds.0 -
A debt free Greece with a cheap currency would be in a much better position than they are now. They'd struggle to borrow, but they're pretty much deficit neutral excluding debt service today.Flightpath said:
But by running away from the problem they walk into another one - devaluation and a depreciating drachma.Patrick said:I detest the anti-democratic EU as much as anyone. And I very much wish that Greece can find a way to leave the Euro and succeed with its own currency. But....I never underestimate the deep well of statist power that is the Brussels machine. The chances for Greece to have the will, and the means and to succeed in the face of the EUSSR elite are not that high. Somehow they'll overwhelm Greek freedom.
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A Monday reminder:
"@RiflemansCreed: #ReligionOfPeace?!?! Remember, if in a time of moral crisis.... #WeThePeople #SonsOfLiberty pic.twitter.com/5ukeLdOh9Q"
— Bhavani (aka Naama) (@I_LUV_IDF) January 26, 20150 -
Watched that last night... Felt sorry for her a bit but it was pretty poor stuff,unless she improves media wise they're probably best off not being in the debatesSocrates said:
Why don't you just send them the Youtube link of Natalie Bennett's car crash interview?NickPalmer said:
Yes, in a small way - we're encountering individuals here and there who say they're tossing up between the LibDems, Greens and us. An explanation of the tactical situation and my record in environment and animal welfare issues usually though not always works. Obviously we won't get to talk to everyone like that so it's important to have targeted mailings for people interested in this (almost nobody positively objects to environmental and animal welfare concern so we can afford a fairly broad brush), for which the quite extensive canvass records are very useful.rottenborough said:
Any sign of an up-tick in Green % from your canvassing Nick?
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Interesting, Salmond says that Sturgeon will be the SNP representative in the debates:
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/westminster/469893/alex-salmond-replace-ed-miliband-bacon-sandwich-tv-debates/0 -
As opposed to Cyprus whereby peoples savings was simply stolen.rcs1000 said:
A disorderly Grexit would be the worst possible thing for the Greeks - with the inevitable destruction of millions of peoples' savings, and effective dramatic cuts to the value of people's wages and pensions.Socrates said:Good luck to Syriza. I hope they don't fold in negotiations like Cameron's Conservatives do.
Are you sure you're not letting your personal views colour what is best for the Greek people?0 -
rcs1000 said, "At the end of the day, Greeks (like everybody else) needs to compete on the world stage. The only question is whether that is achieved through slow grinding down of incomes, or through the one-off hit of devaluation."
Can you shout that a bit louder so that EdM and EdB as well as their left-wingers get to hear it and perhaps understand it.0 -
Good luck to Syriza. They're going to need it.
Might as well start promising to honour some sort of shadow Drachma currency if they really want to explode the idiotic and failing austerity agenda they've been subject to.0 -
Greece should do an Iceland - default, return to the drachma and start again.
They can't climb out of the Grand Canyon with two broken legs and an EU concrete block around their neck.0 -
When you put money in the bank, you have lent that money to the bank.nigel4england said:
As opposed to Cyprus whereby peoples savings was simply stolen.rcs1000 said:
A disorderly Grexit would be the worst possible thing for the Greeks - with the inevitable destruction of millions of peoples' savings, and effective dramatic cuts to the value of people's wages and pensions.Socrates said:Good luck to Syriza. I hope they don't fold in negotiations like Cameron's Conservatives do.
Are you sure you're not letting your personal views colour what is best for the Greek people?
The losses the banks had made (a combination of losses in the local property market. and holdings of - among other things - Greek debt) were such that they were no longer solvent.
The choices for the Cypriot banks were: go bust (which would have meant people's savings were 'stolen', or find some way of sharing the pain.)0 -
They're not debt free.Patrick said:
A debt free Greece with a cheap currency would be in a much better position than they are now. They'd struggle to borrow, but they're pretty much deficit neutral excluding debt service today.Flightpath said:
But by running away from the problem they walk into another one - devaluation and a depreciating drachma.Patrick said:I detest the anti-democratic EU as much as anyone. And I very much wish that Greece can find a way to leave the Euro and succeed with its own currency. But....I never underestimate the deep well of statist power that is the Brussels machine. The chances for Greece to have the will, and the means and to succeed in the face of the EUSSR elite are not that high. Somehow they'll overwhelm Greek freedom.
They still owe the money. The loans from the IMF were written under US Law, and allow the IMF to seize the Greek state assets wherever they may find them.
This means that if a Greek airliner stops in Atlanta (or even Tokyo) it can be impounded.
You don't get to default on loans from the IMF.0 -
How can you feel sorry for one who proposes, in effect, to send every able bodied worker to a life of misery in a lowly cottage industry. More than likely to end up as work camps.isam said:
Watched that last night... Felt sorry for her a bit but it was pretty poor stuff,unless she improves media wise they're probably best off not being in the debatesSocrates said:
Why don't you just send them the Youtube link of Natalie Bennett's car crash interview?NickPalmer said:
Yes, in a small way - we're encountering individuals here and there who say they're tossing up between the LibDems, Greens and us. An explanation of the tactical situation and my record in environment and animal welfare issues usually though not always works. Obviously we won't get to talk to everyone like that so it's important to have targeted mailings for people interested in this (almost nobody positively objects to environmental and animal welfare concern so we can afford a fairly broad brush), for which the quite extensive canvass records are very useful.rottenborough said:
Any sign of an up-tick in Green % from your canvassing Nick?
I heard Caroline Lucas say, on Radio 4, that some of their mad policies were only for the long distance future - 30 years time, or so, when the world would be a much better place than now. Complete lunacy.
0 -
I think the bottom line is they are hoping to trade a massive haircut on their debt against not blowing up the EU, and the EUs desire for it not to be seen that countries can leave (and even worse prosper from leaving). Since the IMF doesn't do haircuts they presumably hope the creditor nations will put their hand in their pocket on their behalf to keep the EU stable, betting on them preferring a modest (in international terms) handout now, to a much bigger spend later on settling down any contagion.rcs1000 said:SYRIZA claims that Greeks can keep their high incomes, pensions and savings through staying in the Euro, while ending the requirement to run a balanced budget.
0 -
Greece seems yet to understand properly that the facts of life are conservative.0
-
A wise decision, Salmond is personally associated with the "Yes" failure (Even though it did way better than it should have) - & Sturgeon's interview with Marr was impressive by all accounts.CarlottaVance said:Interesting, Salmond says that Sturgeon will be the SNP representative in the debates:
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/westminster/469893/alex-salmond-replace-ed-miliband-bacon-sandwich-tv-debates/0 -
"The rich are people too" - Green Party manifesto title? Love it.isam said:
Watched that last night... Felt sorry for her a bit but it was pretty poor stuff,unless she improves media wise they're probably best off not being in the debatesSocrates said:
Why don't you just send them the Youtube link of Natalie Bennett's car crash interview?NickPalmer said:
Yes, in a small way - we're encountering individuals here and there who say they're tossing up between the LibDems, Greens and us. An explanation of the tactical situation and my record in environment and animal welfare issues usually though not always works. Obviously we won't get to talk to everyone like that so it's important to have targeted mailings for people interested in this (almost nobody positively objects to environmental and animal welfare concern so we can afford a fairly broad brush), for which the quite extensive canvass records are very useful.rottenborough said:
Any sign of an up-tick in Green % from your canvassing Nick?
Very scary. Would have been funny if it wasn't so tragic - of course it's just such rhetoric that produced yesterday's Greece vote.0 -
Two things:Indigo said:
I think the bottom line is they are hoping to trade a massive haircut on their debt against not blowing up the EU, and the EUs desire for it not to be seen that countries can leave (and even worse prosper from leaving). Since the IMF doesn't do haircuts they presumably hope the creditor nations will put their hand in their pocket on their behalf to keep the EU stable, betting on them preferring a modest (in international terms) handout now, to a much bigger spend later on settling down any contagion.rcs1000 said:SYRIZA claims that Greeks can keep their high incomes, pensions and savings through staying in the Euro, while ending the requirement to run a balanced budget.
1. It is not possible, due to the structure of the troika loans, for the ECB/EU to accept different terms to the IMF.
2. There will not be a haircut, because that would not be politically acceptable in Germany.
Therefore, what there is on offer is: maturity extensions, coupon cuts, and possibly infrastructure funds for Greece. What would not be acceptable is for those things to occur without continuing supervision from the troika.0 -
Re the 30 years thing, yes that what Bennett said too, so unlimited immigration etc would only happen in a generation or so when the world is rid of economic inequalityMikeK said:
How can you feel sorry for one who proposes, in effect, to send every able bodied worker to a life of misery in a lowly cottage industry. More than likely to end up as work camps.isam said:
Watched that last night... Felt sorry for her a bit but it was pretty poor stuff,unless she improves media wise they're probably best off not being in the debatesSocrates said:
Why don't you just send them the Youtube link of Natalie Bennett's car crash interview?NickPalmer said:
Yes, in a small way - we're encountering individuals here and there who say they're tossing up between the LibDems, Greens and us. An explanation of the tactical situation and my record in environment and animal welfare issues usually though not always works. Obviously we won't get to talk to everyone like that so it's important to have targeted mailings for people interested in this (almost nobody positively objects to environmental and animal welfare concern so we can afford a fairly broad brush), for which the quite extensive canvass records are very useful.rottenborough said:
Any sign of an up-tick in Green % from your canvassing Nick?
I heard Caroline Lucas say, on Radio 4, that some of their mad policies were only for the long distance future - 30 years time, or so, when the world would be a much better place than now. Complete lunacy.
To be fair that's the only way unlimited immigration might work, but she'd need to get rid of religion too...0 -
Fandabbydosie !CarlottaVance said:Interesting, Salmond says that Sturgeon will be the SNP representative in the debates:
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/westminster/469893/alex-salmond-replace-ed-miliband-bacon-sandwich-tv-debates/
0 -
What was Greece's GDP per head pre-Euro, what is it now and what would a likely level be on Euro exit ?0
-
Hard to disagree with that.CarlottaVance said:Daniel Hannan: When the EU made Greece its responsibility, it licensed Greeks to be irresponsible. #Syriza is the product of an infantilised electorate.
0 -
Minimum wage earners paying more tax to finance millionaires getting £72 a week?TOPPING said:
"The rich are people too" - Green Party manifesto title? Love it.isam said:
Watched that last night... Felt sorry for her a bit but it was pretty poor stuff,unless she improves media wise they're probably best off not being in the debatesSocrates said:
Why don't you just send them the Youtube link of Natalie Bennett's car crash interview?NickPalmer said:
Yes, in a small way - we're encountering individuals here and there who say they're tossing up between the LibDems, Greens and us. An explanation of the tactical situation and my record in environment and animal welfare issues usually though not always works. Obviously we won't get to talk to everyone like that so it's important to have targeted mailings for people interested in this (almost nobody positively objects to environmental and animal welfare concern so we can afford a fairly broad brush), for which the quite extensive canvass records are very useful.rottenborough said:
Any sign of an up-tick in Green % from your canvassing Nick?
Very scary. Would have been funny if it wasn't so tragic - of course it's just such rhetoric that produced yesterday's Greece vote.0 -
In 1999, Greece's GDP per capita was c. $12,000 (see https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=gdp per capita greece). It's about $20,000 now.Pulpstar said:What was Greece's GDP per head pre-Euro, what is it now and what would a likely level be on Euro exit ?
0 -
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 1h1 hour agoisam said:Former Respect politician who is now the conservatives most prominent Yorkshire Muslim takes aim at Ukip Thurrock activist
Amjad Bashir (@AmjadBashirMEP)
26/01/2015 00:49
@Michael_Heaver @GuidoFawkes only vermin, like you, abuse hospitality food & drink then piss and shit in same plate
Account hacked??
Morning! So this is the guy the Tories claim to have checked out: http://order-order.com/2015/01/25/amjad-bashir-accused-of-lying-over-respect-party-links-told-tories-he-has-never-had-anything-to-do-with-them-respect-application-form-and-5-witnesses-prove-he-is-lying-also-claimed-he-was/ …0 -
What will Ed do in England?
Murphy pledges to return Scotland's railways to public ownership
DUTCH rail operator Abellio's forthcoming £2.5bn franchise to run Scotland's railways would be cancelled if Labour came to power after the 2016 Holyrood elections.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/wider-political-news/murphy-pledges-to-return-scotlands-railways-to-public-ownership.1169197340 -
In a nutshell.isam said:
Minimum wage earners paying more tax to finance millionaires getting £72 a week?TOPPING said:
"The rich are people too" - Green Party manifesto title? Love it.isam said:
Watched that last night... Felt sorry for her a bit but it was pretty poor stuff,unless she improves media wise they're probably best off not being in the debatesSocrates said:
Why don't you just send them the Youtube link of Natalie Bennett's car crash interview?NickPalmer said:
Yes, in a small way - we're encountering individuals here and there who say they're tossing up between the LibDems, Greens and us. An explanation of the tactical situation and my record in environment and animal welfare issues usually though not always works. Obviously we won't get to talk to everyone like that so it's important to have targeted mailings for people interested in this (almost nobody positively objects to environmental and animal welfare concern so we can afford a fairly broad brush), for which the quite extensive canvass records are very useful.rottenborough said:
Any sign of an up-tick in Green % from your canvassing Nick?
Very scary. Would have been funny if it wasn't so tragic - of course it's just such rhetoric that produced yesterday's Greece vote.
Oh and a tax on budgerigars' second cages to raise £112bn.0 -
The analyses I have read suggest this will be flat unacceptable to at least a third of the SYRIZA coalition, so if that is why Tspiras brings back he will have to get it through the Greek parliament on opposition votes, which even if it were possible would be a huge embarrassment, and would probably cause SYRIZA to splinter and a new election to be called. So is Tspiras likely to propose it to their parliament, or are we going to sleepwalk into a default because Tspiras has basically promised something he cant deliver.rcs1000 said:
Two things:Indigo said:
I think the bottom line is they are hoping to trade a massive haircut on their debt against not blowing up the EU, and the EUs desire for it not to be seen that countries can leave (and even worse prosper from leaving). Since the IMF doesn't do haircuts they presumably hope the creditor nations will put their hand in their pocket on their behalf to keep the EU stable, betting on them preferring a modest (in international terms) handout now, to a much bigger spend later on settling down any contagion.rcs1000 said:SYRIZA claims that Greeks can keep their high incomes, pensions and savings through staying in the Euro, while ending the requirement to run a balanced budget.
1. It is not possible, due to the structure of the troika loans, for the ECB/EU to accept different terms to the IMF.
2. There will not be a haircut, because that would not be politically acceptable in Germany.
Therefore, what there is on offer is: maturity extensions, coupon cuts, and possibly infrastructure funds for Greece. What would not be acceptable is for those things to occur without continuing supervision from the troika.
His choices appear to come down to propose something in the terms you suggest and his government falls, and gets replaced probably by ND, and probably huge social unrest since they are seen as part of the problem by more than half the country, or tell the EU to p1ss off and call a default, and remain in government to sort out the mess, fun choice.0 -
Is that inflation adjusted ?rcs1000 said:
In 1999, Greece's GDP per capita was c. $12,000 (see https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=gdp per capita greece). It's about $20,000 now.Pulpstar said:What was Greece's GDP per head pre-Euro, what is it now and what would a likely level be on Euro exit ?
0 -
OT parliamentary procedure question:
So apparently there were a bunch of provisions the Tories wanted (successfully branded "The Snooper's Charter" by opponents) that got killed. Then apparently a committee in the Lords attached something similar to a different bill going through now, which the House of Commons has presumably already voted on. This article:
http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2015/01/26/comment-they-re-smuggling-the-snoopers-charter-into-law-but
...says that"the House of Commons will get no say, unless enough Lords turn up today and vote it down
Is that right? Surely the Lords can't just amend things and automatically have them become law? Is the point here that the thing then goes back to the Commons for a final vote with the amendments, but that the Commons vote is a foregone conclusion? What's actually going on?0 -
Any businesses not being chased out of "social revenge" Scotland ?CarlottaVance said:What will Ed do in England?
Murphy pledges to return Scotland's railways to public ownership
DUTCH rail operator Abellio's forthcoming £2.5bn franchise to run Scotland's railways would be cancelled if Labour came to power after the 2016 Holyrood elections.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/wider-political-news/murphy-pledges-to-return-scotlands-railways-to-public-ownership.116919734
0 -
No - current prices.Pulpstar said:
Is that inflation adjusted ?rcs1000 said:
In 1999, Greece's GDP per capita was c. $12,000 (see https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=gdp per capita greece). It's about $20,000 now.Pulpstar said:What was Greece's GDP per head pre-Euro, what is it now and what would a likely level be on Euro exit ?
0 -
In principle, any party should be free to choose who represents them in the debates (the Better Together team appropriately cavilled at the SNP demand that they use Cameron - 'you don't get to pick your opponent's captain')Pulpstar said:
A wise decision, Salmond is personally associated with the "Yes" failure (Even though it did way better than it should have) - & Sturgeon's interview with Marr was impressive by all accounts.CarlottaVance said:Interesting, Salmond says that Sturgeon will be the SNP representative in the debates:
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/westminster/469893/alex-salmond-replace-ed-miliband-bacon-sandwich-tv-debates/
Still, it is slightly odd that Sturgeon is neither leader of the SNP in Westminster, nor has any chance of becoming so after the GE (like Farage in UKIP, for example).
It also has the effect of deflating the Green's 'we're the only girls here' pitch.......
0 -
I can see why they think the way they do, and if humans were robots it might work, a bit like communism in theoryTOPPING said:
In a nutshell.isam said:
Minimum wage earners paying more tax to finance millionaires getting £72 a week?TOPPING said:
"The rich are people too" - Green Party manifesto title? Love it.isam said:
Watched that last night... Felt sorry for her a bit but it was pretty poor stuff,unless she improves media wise they're probably best off not being in the debatesSocrates said:
Why don't you just send them the Youtube link of Natalie Bennett's car crash interview?NickPalmer said:
Yes, in a small way - we're encountering individuals here and there who say they're tossing up between the LibDems, Greens and us. An explanation of the tactical situation and my record in environment and animal welfare issues usually though not always works. Obviously we won't get to talk to everyone like that so it's important to have targeted mailings for people interested in this (almost nobody positively objects to environmental and animal welfare concern so we can afford a fairly broad brush), for which the quite extensive canvass records are very useful.rottenborough said:
Any sign of an up-tick in Green % from your canvassing Nick?
Very scary. Would have been funny if it wasn't so tragic - of course it's just such rhetoric that produced yesterday's Greece vote.
Oh and a tax on budgerigars' second cages to raise £112bn.0 -
Has IMF ever done that?rcs1000 said:
They're not debt free.Patrick said:
A debt free Greece with a cheap currency would be in a much better position than they are now. They'd struggle to borrow, but they're pretty much deficit neutral excluding debt service today.Flightpath said:
But by running away from the problem they walk into another one - devaluation and a depreciating drachma.Patrick said:I detest the anti-democratic EU as much as anyone. And I very much wish that Greece can find a way to leave the Euro and succeed with its own currency. But....I never underestimate the deep well of statist power that is the Brussels machine. The chances for Greece to have the will, and the means and to succeed in the face of the EUSSR elite are not that high. Somehow they'll overwhelm Greek freedom.
They still owe the money. The loans from the IMF were written under US Law, and allow the IMF to seize the Greek state assets wherever they may find them.
This means that if a Greek airliner stops in Atlanta (or even Tokyo) it can be impounded.
You don't get to default on loans from the IMF.0 -
Am I correct in thinking that the subject of that link was until very recently a highly thought of and well respected senior member of UKIP?MikeK said:
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 1h1 hour agoisam said:Former Respect politician who is now the conservatives most prominent Yorkshire Muslim takes aim at Ukip Thurrock activist
Amjad Bashir (@AmjadBashirMEP)
26/01/2015 00:49
@Michael_Heaver @GuidoFawkes only vermin, like you, abuse hospitality food & drink then piss and shit in same plate
Account hacked??
Morning! So this is the guy the Tories claim to have checked out: http://order-order.com/2015/01/25/amjad-bashir-accused-of-lying-over-respect-party-links-told-tories-he-has-never-had-anything-to-do-with-them-respect-application-form-and-5-witnesses-prove-he-is-lying-also-claimed-he-was/ …0 -
I still don't know why you would walk into an interview with Andrew Neil without knowing any of your numbers.isam said:
I can see why they think the way they do, and if humans were robots it might work, a bit like communism in theory
He really is the best interviewer on TV: not sarcastic, not abusive, just relentless in getting to the facts of where a case falls apart.
And not biased to one side either.0 -
Kippers seem to have planted a story in the Times from Mr Banks their new donor, saying Hannan was looking at defecting to them.... try and turn the focus back on blues going to the purples perhaps - his reply was
Daniel Hannan@DanHannanMEP · 1h 1 hour ago
Laura Pitel's story about me in the Times is utter, unadulterated bollocks.
Mark Wallace@wallaceme·19 mins19 minutes ago
Arron Banks harms UKIP's defection operation by making public claims about @DanHannanMEP - their success so far founded on total secrecy
0 -
He was a member of ukipsaddened said:
Am I correct in thinking that the subject of that link was until very recently a highly thought of and well respected senior member of UKIP?MikeK said:
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 1h1 hour agoisam said:Former Respect politician who is now the conservatives most prominent Yorkshire Muslim takes aim at Ukip Thurrock activist
Amjad Bashir (@AmjadBashirMEP)
26/01/2015 00:49
@Michael_Heaver @GuidoFawkes only vermin, like you, abuse hospitality food & drink then piss and shit in same plate
Account hacked??
Morning! So this is the guy the Tories claim to have checked out: http://order-order.com/2015/01/25/amjad-bashir-accused-of-lying-over-respect-party-links-told-tories-he-has-never-had-anything-to-do-with-them-respect-application-form-and-5-witnesses-prove-he-is-lying-also-claimed-he-was/ …0 -
The Hon (I've got a PhD from Cambridge you know) Hunt takes a pop at Green education policy:
http://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/jan/26/green-party-education-policies-total-madness-labour-tristram-hunt0 -
16 _/--- (((20 - 12)/20)+1) = 1.0212Socrates said:
No - current prices.Pulpstar said:
Is that inflation adjusted ?rcs1000 said:
In 1999, Greece's GDP per capita was c. $12,000 (see https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=gdp per capita greece). It's about $20,000 now.Pulpstar said:What was Greece's GDP per head pre-Euro, what is it now and what would a likely level be on Euro exit ?
So Greek GDP has moved nowhere if you take average inflation to be ~ 2.1%. That right ?0
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