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Trump derangement syndrome is real – politicalbetting.com

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,172
    isam said:

    carnforth said:

    MattW said:

    A I correct that RefUK are back down to four MPs, possibly temporarily, because something else has emerged concerning James McMurdock?

    Per the fragrant Tom Harwood on Twitter:

    Reform MPs:

    am 5th July 2024: 4
    pm 5th July 2024: 5
    7th March 2025: 4
    2nd May 2025: 5
    5th July 2025: 4
    Odds on there being as many ex-Reform MPs as current Reform MPs at some point this Parliament?
    The only positive for Reform if this MP does get the boot is that they can put someone they rate in as the candidate to replace him in the By Election. Murdock was not much more than a paper candidate really. I'd suggest Tommy Skinner, although he might be cut from the same cloth as Murdock dodgyness wise. Perhaps Zia Yusuf?
    For Zia they would need to examined their own supporter demographics in the location.

    Reform have a "three or four potential horses of the apocollapse" structure in their support base, and Zia would need a mix who would not wretch too much at a brown Muslim Finance-Bro.

    They need a candidate who will lose perhaps only one of the four horses.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,374

    Andy_JS said:

    The internet's rubbish, social media is rubbish, phones are rubbish, etc, etc, etc.

    The Internet is a tool. Social media is a tool. Phones are a tool.

    Tools can be useful. The problem is not the tool; the problem is people using the tools in stupid or incorrect ways.
    Blessed are the toolmakers.

    Not so much their sons though.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,152

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    It is not to defend HYUFD's stance, which I disagree with, but two 20ish girls I spoke to recently were furious with 'Emily Pankhurst' for forcing women into the workplace 'How dare she make that decision for everyone else?'.

    There's no conflict between feminism and women choosing not to work and look after their kids: the point is that it has to be a choice and not forced. But being beholden to a partner for money can also make them subservient to the partner if the partner is so inclined. Which again is fine if it is a free choice; but also somewhat goes against some feminist thinking.

    However, it is interesting to see people say that women should be able to choose not to work, and those who want to ban the hijab, niqab or burqa as they are 'forced' on women.

    If a woman can choose to be subservient to a partner in a relationship, why can another woman not choose to wear such headgear?
    The issue with the hijab, niquab and burqua....I agree with you if they choose it. However some dont choose that life and have it forced on them. I give an example my son had been dating a girl for a couple of years and they were getting on for two years when they were getting towards two years, she had been round the house lots eaten with us, she was bright. They were getting serious so had to ask her do your parents know, did talk it over with my son first about what might happen. Yes her parents objected 1 month later she had been to pakistan and was married to a cousin she had never met. Now personally I think that might have been forced and now instead of the bright friendly intelligent girl I remember next time I saw her was traipsing along 2m behind her new husband eyes downcast and ignoring all her old friends from school
    Indeed. But it's the same with women not working and having to look after loads of babies: some don't choose that life and have it forced upon them.

    In fact, that was probably the norm just a few decades ago.

    And that's where @HYUFD wants us to return to. And like the burqa etc, it is because of a particular religious interpretation.
    It is not just the very religious, as already stated young men across the western world are increasingly voting for far right and populist right parties in part because they back their support for a return to more traditional gender roles
    Lets cull young men then it will sort the issue
    Or they could cull the likes of you
    I however am not the problem young men are expecting stuff they cant have
    Yes having a committed relationship with a woman and the prospect of fatherhood as every generation of men before them has had is something they are no longer entitled to in your view.

    Hence they will vote ever more far right and populist right
    Nobody is "entitled" to a relationship.

    If you want a relationship, work on pleasing the other person more than you try to please yourself.
    That also requires women to play ball
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-11878629/Why-time-ditch-alpha-male-addiction-bag-beta.html
    Sorry why should they play ball, they know what they want if men cant meet that then the fault is on the men
    So apparently the 90% of men who are not rich and good looking Alpha males have to be lifelong single and celibate because most women are chasing an unattainable for most 10% of men!
    That statistic is clearly bollocks. The vast majority of non-alpha* males have long term successful relationships, including both you** and me.

    *I don't accept the entire classification. We are not baboons and are social relationships are much more complicated.

    ** this is a compliment. I have never encountered anyone who self describes as "alpha male" who wasn't an arrogant arsehole.
    This is clearly wrong because I’m a self-confessed alpha male, to the extent I am known in my neighbourhood as “THE FALCON”, and the idea I’m arrogant is obvious nonsense
    An alpha male by some accounts previously identifying as LadyG.?
    I wonder if you were to split rapists by personality type, and more importantly by how they *perceive* themselves as being, then more will be 'alpha' male by proportion than other types.

    After all, it's kind-of in the definition. Assertive. Competitive. Ambitious. It's not far from there to "not taking no for an answer".
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,253
    Andy_JS said:

    The internet's rubbish, social media is rubbish, phones are rubbish, etc, etc, etc.

    You seem to be an assiduous user of them. Do you feel that you have no agency in the matter?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,065
    I see there’s a Lord Ashcroft poll:

    Reform 27%, Labour 22%, Conservatives 21%, Lib Dem 13%, Green 11%.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,172
    edited July 6
    fitalass said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Texas flash floods sound pretty awful.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c15np18yy24t

    An absolute tragedy, I am still trying to comprehend how quickly the Guadalupe River surged by up to 30 feet.
    To quote the local supervising official: "this is the most dangerous river valley in the United States." It's a confluence of two valleys that has a history of flash floods. The summer camp was located at the confluence and not evacuated in time.

    The background seems to be that forecasts were wrong from the National Weather Service, and underestimated the rain by 1/2 to 2/3 (3-6 inches not the 13 inches that occurred).

    The political background is that Trump has gutted both the Federal Emergencies setup FEMA, and the National Weather Service (eg there may be no Radio Sonde weather monitoring balloon launches at all in future), and they are now 20% understaffed. So the Cabinet Member Kirsty Noem is now playnig blame games to cover her back, having previously been publicly enthusiastic about getting rid of FEMA.

    This is a segment with local officials talking about actual circumstances (couple of minutes - Texas Police then Local Judge who heads up the area Govt):
    https://youtu.be/OGfJajNLch4?t=838

    TBF this segment is embedded within a larger 20 minute compilation from Meidas Touch collating statements which meet their critical agenda, which is worth a listen. It includes a public explanation from a 30-year TV weatherman as to why he can't do such reliable forecasts as in the past any more.

    There are similar comments around precise tornado warnings.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,068
    edited July 6
    Cicero said:

    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:



    I'll give you my regular spiel on the matter. It goes like this:

    * Free speech does not exist, and never has existed
    * There is merely things it is fashionable to say, and things which will get you arrested for saying, and the boundary is ever shifting.
    * The only task of the statistician is to track it and note the moving boundary.
    * As technology has expanded, the opportunity to note speech and arrest people for it has expanded.
    * Consequently, free speech has contracted in the UK, and I don't see this stopping.
    * I hate this.

    If free speech has never existed, then how can it be contracting ?
    It's zero. But it's a smaller zero than before. It's a much smaller amount of nothing than the absolutely ginormous nothing it was before.

    :):):):)

    "The Lib Dems are not just empty. They are a void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition." - Boris, 2003 :)
    And he would know better than most.
    Projection... the people who talk such twaddle have developed a reflexive contempt. Meanwhile the Lib Dems are getting more done, and expressing more if what the majority of the country believes... the result is a steady increase in poll ratings and a broad range of by election victories across the whole country.
    The Lib Dem derangement syndrome, especially from the right is increasingly fun to watch. They simply cannot accept that Ed Davey is not only a serious guy, he also knows what he is doing and where he is going. That is a pretty rare situation in British politics at the moment.
    Good morning

    To be honest I have no idea what the Lib Dem policies are other than to rejoin the EU and deal with the care sector

    I also have no idea where or how they intend funding the deficit snd frankly they are virtually anonymous here in Wales

    They have strong areas of supportive largely in southern England and I am not sure Ed Davey is at all serious with all his aquatic stunts

    If they were not so pro EU I could be interested but without knowing how they could fund their promises they are no different to the other parties
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    betting Post:

    F1: backed Hulkenberg for points at 7.5 (boosted), with a hedge at 1.8.

    https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/07/british-grand-prix-2025-pre-race.html

    Given he starts 19th this might sound daft, and it might be. But he's scored from 16th, 13th, and 20th in recent races.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,642
    And lo

    He waits. Two stony, burning amber eyes fixed on the grass, his branch swaying slightly in the quiet sun

    The little pb mammals disport under the trees. The dormice, the funny old toad, the harvest mouse, @JosiasJessop, @MattW, blissfully unaware. Instant death sits in the trees, and yet He waits

    THE FALCON
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,093
    Leon said:

    And lo

    He waits. Two stony, burning amber eyes fixed on the grass, his branch swaying slightly in the quiet sun

    The little pb mammals disport under the trees. The dormice, the funny old toad, the harvest mouse, @JosiasJessop, @MattW, blissfully unaware. Instant death sits in the trees, and yet He waits

    THE FALCON

    aka our very own Bird-Brain…
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,209

    Cicero said:

    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:



    I'll give you my regular spiel on the matter. It goes like this:

    * Free speech does not exist, and never has existed
    * There is merely things it is fashionable to say, and things which will get you arrested for saying, and the boundary is ever shifting.
    * The only task of the statistician is to track it and note the moving boundary.
    * As technology has expanded, the opportunity to note speech and arrest people for it has expanded.
    * Consequently, free speech has contracted in the UK, and I don't see this stopping.
    * I hate this.

    If free speech has never existed, then how can it be contracting ?
    It's zero. But it's a smaller zero than before. It's a much smaller amount of nothing than the absolutely ginormous nothing it was before.

    :):):):)

    "The Lib Dems are not just empty. They are a void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition." - Boris, 2003 :)
    And he would know better than most.
    Projection... the people who talk such twaddle have developed a reflexive contempt. Meanwhile the Lib Dems are getting more done, and expressing more if what the majority of the country believes... the result is a steady increase in poll ratings and a broad range of by election victories across the whole country.
    The Lib Dem derangement syndrome, especially from the right is increasingly fun to watch. They simply cannot accept that Ed Davey is not only a serious guy, he also knows what he is doing and where he is going. That is a pretty rare situation in British politics at the moment.
    Good morning

    To be honest I have no idea what the Lib Dem policies are other than to rejoin the EU and deal with the care sector

    I also have no idea where or how they intend funding the deficit snd frankly they are virtually anonymous here in Wales

    They have strong areas of supportive largely in southern England and I am not sure Ed Davey is at all serious with all his aquatic stunts

    If they were not so pro EU I could be interested but without knowing how they could fund their promises they are no different to the other parties
    https://www.libdems.org.uk/manifesto
    An extra £27b funding including from a 6% digital tax, and taxing excess profit by energy companies.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,096
    Leon said:

    And lo

    He waits. Two stony, burning amber eyes fixed on the grass, his branch swaying slightly in the quiet sun

    The little pb mammals disport under the trees. The dormice, the funny old toad, the harvest mouse, @JosiasJessop, @MattW, blissfully unaware. Instant death sits in the trees, and yet He waits

    THE FALCON

    Highly amusing for a Sunday morning. Look forward to the next instalment.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,478
    Leon said:

    And lo

    He waits. Two stony, burning amber eyes fixed on the grass, his branch swaying slightly in the quiet sun

    The little pb mammals disport under the trees. The dormice, the funny old toad, the harvest mouse, @JosiasJessop, @MattW, blissfully unaware. Instant death sits in the trees, and yet He waits

    THE FALCON

    I expected an avatar change to some sort of dramatic fascistic falcon emblem rather than that effeminate AI effort. How are we supposed to think of you as this dark, brooding super bird when you look like and naff picture from a 90s hair salon?
  • flanner2flanner2 Posts: 30
    Barnesian said:

    Cicero said:

    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:



    I'll give you my regular spiel on the matter. It goes like this:

    * Free speech does not exist, and never has existed
    * There is merely things it is fashionable to say, and things which will get you arrested for saying, and the boundary is ever shifting.
    * The only task of the statistician is to track it and note the moving boundary.
    * As technology has expanded, the opportunity to note speech and arrest people for it has expanded.
    * Consequently, free speech has contracted in the UK, and I don't see this stopping.
    * I hate this.

    If free speech has never existed, then how can it be contracting ?
    It's zero. But it's a smaller zero than before. It's a much smaller amount of nothing than the absolutely ginormous nothing it was before.

    :):):):)

    "The Lib Dems are not just empty. They are a void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition." - Boris, 2003 :)
    And he would know better than most.
    Projection... the people who talk such twaddle have developed a reflexive contempt. Meanwhile the Lib Dems are getting more done, and expressing more if what the majority of the country believes... the result is a steady increase in poll ratings and a broad range of by election victories across the whole country.
    The Lib Dem derangement syndrome, especially from the right is increasingly fun to watch. They simply cannot accept that Ed Davey is not only a serious guy, he also knows what he is doing and where he is going. That is a pretty rare situation in British politics at the moment.
    Good morning

    To be honest I have no idea what the Lib Dem policies are other than to rejoin the EU and deal with the care sector

    I also have no idea where or how they intend funding the deficit snd frankly they are virtually anonymous here in Wales

    They have strong areas of supportive largely in southern England and I am not sure Ed Davey is at all serious with all his aquatic stunts

    If they were not so pro EU I could be interested but without knowing how they could fund their promises they are no different to the other parties
    https://www.libdems.org.uk/manifesto
    An extra £27b funding including from a 6% digital tax, and taxing excess profit by energy companies.
    Do you really believe the LibDems got to run the County Council in both Britain's more or less richest county (Oxfordshire) and its poorest (Shropshire) through incompetence? That almost overnight its started providing five out of Oxfordshire's seven MPs that way - and will almost certainly provide six at the next GE? Or that Reform's loss in May of half their Oxfordshire Council seats, while the Tories lost only 46% and Labour just 25% - the LDs of course increased theirs by 80% - was an oddity?

    Perhaps the problem is that you're so ignorant of politics you don't even know who kicked Reform out in Llanwhateveritscalled on Thursday.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,642
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    And lo

    He waits. Two stony, burning amber eyes fixed on the grass, his branch swaying slightly in the quiet sun

    The little pb mammals disport under the trees. The dormice, the funny old toad, the harvest mouse, @JosiasJessop, @MattW, blissfully unaware. Instant death sits in the trees, and yet He waits

    THE FALCON

    I expected an avatar change to some sort of dramatic fascistic falcon emblem rather than that effeminate AI effort. How are we supposed to think of you as this dark, brooding super bird when you look like and naff picture from a 90s hair salon?
    lol. I did actually consider that - deleted my old photo. But couldn’t be arsed to create anything. I’m between avatar, this is a placeholder
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,096
    FDS - Falcon Derangement Syndrome and my pic for today.


  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,803

    Cicero said:

    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:



    I'll give you my regular spiel on the matter. It goes like this:

    * Free speech does not exist, and never has existed
    * There is merely things it is fashionable to say, and things which will get you arrested for saying, and the boundary is ever shifting.
    * The only task of the statistician is to track it and note the moving boundary.
    * As technology has expanded, the opportunity to note speech and arrest people for it has expanded.
    * Consequently, free speech has contracted in the UK, and I don't see this stopping.
    * I hate this.

    If free speech has never existed, then how can it be contracting ?
    It's zero. But it's a smaller zero than before. It's a much smaller amount of nothing than the absolutely ginormous nothing it was before.

    :):):):)

    "The Lib Dems are not just empty. They are a void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition." - Boris, 2003 :)
    And he would know better than most.
    Projection... the people who talk such twaddle have developed a reflexive contempt. Meanwhile the Lib Dems are getting more done, and expressing more if what the majority of the country believes... the result is a steady increase in poll ratings and a broad range of by election victories across the whole country.
    The Lib Dem derangement syndrome, especially from the right is increasingly fun to watch. They simply cannot accept that Ed Davey is not only a serious guy, he also knows what he is doing and where he is going. That is a pretty rare situation in British politics at the moment.
    Good morning

    To be honest I have no idea what the Lib Dem policies are other than to rejoin the EU and deal with the care sector

    I also have no idea where or how they intend funding the deficit snd frankly they are virtually anonymous here in Wales

    They have strong areas of supportive largely in southern England and I am not sure Ed Davey is at all serious with all his aquatic stunts

    If they were not so pro EU I could be interested but without knowing how they could fund their promises they are no different to the other parties
    If you know how any of the Tories, Labour, Reform, Greens or the new Sultana party intend to fund the deficit please could you share these very well kept secrets? Thanks.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    Battlebus said:

    FDS - Falcon Derangement Syndrome and my pic for today.


    Could be worse. At least he doesn't have a tit-fixation. Or a thrush problem.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,068
    Barnesian said:

    Cicero said:

    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:



    I'll give you my regular spiel on the matter. It goes like this:

    * Free speech does not exist, and never has existed
    * There is merely things it is fashionable to say, and things which will get you arrested for saying, and the boundary is ever shifting.
    * The only task of the statistician is to track it and note the moving boundary.
    * As technology has expanded, the opportunity to note speech and arrest people for it has expanded.
    * Consequently, free speech has contracted in the UK, and I don't see this stopping.
    * I hate this.

    If free speech has never existed, then how can it be contracting ?
    It's zero. But it's a smaller zero than before. It's a much smaller amount of nothing than the absolutely ginormous nothing it was before.

    :):):):)

    "The Lib Dems are not just empty. They are a void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition." - Boris, 2003 :)
    And he would know better than most.
    Projection... the people who talk such twaddle have developed a reflexive contempt. Meanwhile the Lib Dems are getting more done, and expressing more if what the majority of the country believes... the result is a steady increase in poll ratings and a broad range of by election victories across the whole country.
    The Lib Dem derangement syndrome, especially from the right is increasingly fun to watch. They simply cannot accept that Ed Davey is not only a serious guy, he also knows what he is doing and where he is going. That is a pretty rare situation in British politics at the moment.
    Good morning

    To be honest I have no idea what the Lib Dem policies are other than to rejoin the EU and deal with the care sector

    I also have no idea where or how they intend funding the deficit snd frankly they are virtually anonymous here in Wales

    They have strong areas of supportive largely in southern England and I am not sure Ed Davey is at all serious with all his aquatic stunts

    If they were not so pro EU I could be interested but without knowing how they could fund their promises they are no different to the other parties
    https://www.libdems.org.uk/manifesto
    An extra £27b funding including from a 6% digital tax, and taxing excess profit by energy companies.
    The digital tax in the age of Trump is a non starter and the energy companies profits are already heavily taxed
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,068
    flanner2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Cicero said:

    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:



    I'll give you my regular spiel on the matter. It goes like this:

    * Free speech does not exist, and never has existed
    * There is merely things it is fashionable to say, and things which will get you arrested for saying, and the boundary is ever shifting.
    * The only task of the statistician is to track it and note the moving boundary.
    * As technology has expanded, the opportunity to note speech and arrest people for it has expanded.
    * Consequently, free speech has contracted in the UK, and I don't see this stopping.
    * I hate this.

    If free speech has never existed, then how can it be contracting ?
    It's zero. But it's a smaller zero than before. It's a much smaller amount of nothing than the absolutely ginormous nothing it was before.

    :):):):)

    "The Lib Dems are not just empty. They are a void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition." - Boris, 2003 :)
    And he would know better than most.
    Projection... the people who talk such twaddle have developed a reflexive contempt. Meanwhile the Lib Dems are getting more done, and expressing more if what the majority of the country believes... the result is a steady increase in poll ratings and a broad range of by election victories across the whole country.
    The Lib Dem derangement syndrome, especially from the right is increasingly fun to watch. They simply cannot accept that Ed Davey is not only a serious guy, he also knows what he is doing and where he is going. That is a pretty rare situation in British politics at the moment.
    Good morning

    To be honest I have no idea what the Lib Dem policies are other than to rejoin the EU and deal with the care sector

    I also have no idea where or how they intend funding the deficit snd frankly they are virtually anonymous here in Wales

    They have strong areas of supportive largely in southern England and I am not sure Ed Davey is at all serious with all his aquatic stunts

    If they were not so pro EU I could be interested but without knowing how they could fund their promises they are no different to the other parties
    https://www.libdems.org.uk/manifesto
    An extra £27b funding including from a 6% digital tax, and taxing excess profit by energy companies.
    Do you really believe the LibDems got to run the County Council in both Britain's more or less richest county (Oxfordshire) and its poorest (Shropshire) through incompetence? That almost overnight its started providing five out of Oxfordshire's seven MPs that way - and will almost certainly provide six at the next GE? Or that Reform's loss in May of half their Oxfordshire Council seats, while the Tories lost only 46% and Labour just 25% - the LDs of course increased theirs by 80% - was an oddity?

    Perhaps the problem is that you're so ignorant of politics you don't even know who kicked Reform out in Llanwhateveritscalled on Thursday.
    Well that is rather aggressive but confirms the strength in parts of England but next year Senedd will be between Plaid and Reform

    Anyway enjoy your moments
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,068

    Cicero said:

    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:



    I'll give you my regular spiel on the matter. It goes like this:

    * Free speech does not exist, and never has existed
    * There is merely things it is fashionable to say, and things which will get you arrested for saying, and the boundary is ever shifting.
    * The only task of the statistician is to track it and note the moving boundary.
    * As technology has expanded, the opportunity to note speech and arrest people for it has expanded.
    * Consequently, free speech has contracted in the UK, and I don't see this stopping.
    * I hate this.

    If free speech has never existed, then how can it be contracting ?
    It's zero. But it's a smaller zero than before. It's a much smaller amount of nothing than the absolutely ginormous nothing it was before.

    :):):):)

    "The Lib Dems are not just empty. They are a void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition." - Boris, 2003 :)
    And he would know better than most.
    Projection... the people who talk such twaddle have developed a reflexive contempt. Meanwhile the Lib Dems are getting more done, and expressing more if what the majority of the country believes... the result is a steady increase in poll ratings and a broad range of by election victories across the whole country.
    The Lib Dem derangement syndrome, especially from the right is increasingly fun to watch. They simply cannot accept that Ed Davey is not only a serious guy, he also knows what he is doing and where he is going. That is a pretty rare situation in British politics at the moment.
    Good morning

    To be honest I have no idea what the Lib Dem policies are other than to rejoin the EU and deal with the care sector

    I also have no idea where or how they intend funding the deficit snd frankly they are virtually anonymous here in Wales

    They have strong areas of supportive largely in southern England and I am not sure Ed Davey is at all serious with all his aquatic stunts

    If they were not so pro EU I could be interested but without knowing how they could fund their promises they are no different to the other parties
    If you know how any of the Tories, Labour, Reform, Greens or the new Sultana party intend to fund the deficit please could you share these very well kept secrets? Thanks.
    Err - my last sentence makes exactly that point
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,559
    1
    Sean_F said:

    I see there’s a Lord Ashcroft poll:

    Reform 27%, Labour 22%, Conservatives 21%, Lib Dem 13%, Green 11%.

    Morning all
    That would be a nightmare to try and call, obviously Ref largest party but seats could go anywhere, anywhere!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,444
    Cicero said:

    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:



    I'll give you my regular spiel on the matter. It goes like this:

    * Free speech does not exist, and never has existed
    * There is merely things it is fashionable to say, and things which will get you arrested for saying, and the boundary is ever shifting.
    * The only task of the statistician is to track it and note the moving boundary.
    * As technology has expanded, the opportunity to note speech and arrest people for it has expanded.
    * Consequently, free speech has contracted in the UK, and I don't see this stopping.
    * I hate this.

    If free speech has never existed, then how can it be contracting ?
    It's zero. But it's a smaller zero than before. It's a much smaller amount of nothing than the absolutely ginormous nothing it was before.

    :):):):)

    "The Lib Dems are not just empty. They are a void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition." - Boris, 2003 :)
    And he would know better than most.
    Projection... the people who talk such twaddle have developed a reflexive contempt. Meanwhile the Lib Dems are getting more done, and expressing more if what the majority of the country believes... the result is a steady increase in poll ratings and a broad range of by election victories across the whole country.
    The Lib Dem derangement syndrome, especially from the right is increasingly fun to watch. They simply cannot accept that Ed Davey is not only a serious guy, he also knows what he is doing and where he is going. That is a pretty rare situation in British politics at the moment.
    I think you are seeing what you want to see. A steady increase from 12 % to 15% in 12 months? Isn’t that essentially margin of error?

    People who dislike Reform (all right thinking people, tbh) cling to the hope that once scrutiny starts their bubble will burst. The Lib Dem’s need to be careful what they wish for. I follow politics more closely than the average person, I voted for a Lib Dem candidate in the last two elections but I couldn’t tell you their top five policies, or what their broad themes are. And as for a range of election victories across the country - they achieved 70+ seats with 12% of the vote, which suggests a very localised support.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,253
    Battlebus said:

    FDS - Falcon Derangement Syndrome and my pic for today.


    The best falconry, Limmy’s Falconhoof. Coincidentally this is close to Leon’s going down the pub look.


  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,436
    IanB2 said:

    Today’s Rawnsley, early as the sun came up at 0255 here this morning:

    The great rebellion over welfare, combined with the thought-concentrating milestone of a year in power, demands a rethink about how this government operates. On that, everyone agrees. There is a big decision for Sir Keir to make and that is whether to keep Rachel Reeves at the Treasury or to find himself a new chancellor.

    The government is not getting the credit ministers think it deserves for the things it is doing that ought to be liked by Labour people. I don’t think it is fair to lump all the blame for that failure on the Treasury. It is the prime minister who has the central responsibility for fashioning an attractive vision of the future and conveying it to the country. If the government lacks a compelling over-arching story, the buck stops with Sir Keir, not his nextdoor neighbour.

    One minister who knows his history remarks: “Harold Wilson used to complain about the gnomes of Zurich. This is a rare example of the bond markets doing a favour for a Labour chancellor.” Her people argue that the tears have, paradoxically,made the chancellor safer by humanising her rather robotic public image and underlining the risks of removing her.

    Sir Keir’s assurances that Ms Reeves is secure in her job to the next election “and beyond” can’t be taken to the bank. He said it because he had to say it. The prime minister, who is on his third chief of staff, has a history of ruthlessness which suggests that he has enough ice in his breast to fire her from the Treasury if he concludes that is in his best interests. But would it be? If Rachel Reeves stays, there may be trouble. If she goes, it could be double.

    Keir Starmer has literally zero authority left within his own Cabinet or his backbenchers, his premiership is hanging by a shoogle peg because he so loathed by his own Parliamentary party never mind the rest of the country right now. The markets didn't make Rachel Reeves safer after her distressing display at PMQs because they had any confidence in her, it just showed they were already very jittery at her being suddenly replaced by someone even weaker and even less competent who could only make the this Labour Government's current fiscal policy position even worse if that was even possible.

    Rachel Reeves position was already toast the night night before when Keir Starmer caved into that massive Labour welfare bill backbench rebellion that totally wrote off what ever little econocomic credibility this government was left clinging too in their own heads. Has a backbench rebellion ever left its own government in such a weakened state this quickly that its now so holed below the water line and will be unable to recover from this? Its anyone's guess how long Starmer or Reeves will be able to limp along in charge but humiliatingly without any authority before they throw in the towel?! Is Angela Rayner now the defacto leader of the Labour party and god help us the new PM in waiting and about to take us back to the 1970's like an episode of Life on Mars?



    Daily Mail - 'Tories warned Labour about Rachel Reeves' tears 17 minutes BEFORE PMQs started'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14878615/Tories-warned-Labour-Rachel-Reeves-tears-17-minutes-PMQs-started.html

    "Keir Starmer's claim that he did not know Rachel Reeves was in tears was branded 'nonsense' last night after the Tories insisted they gave Labour 'early warning' of her distress.

    Tory MPs revealed they alerted Labour whips to the fact that the Chancellor was weeping in the Commons to ensure she got help.

    They say that was at 11.43am – 17 minutes before Prime Minister's Questions when Ms Reeves had tears rolling down her cheeks as she sat next to an apparently oblivious Sir Keir.

    One Tory MP said: 'It simply beggars belief that with that much warning, the PM wasn't told."
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,053
    A weird atmospheric phenomenon going on in Leics, it's as if the sky is crying.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,745
    Foxy said:

    A weird atmospheric phenomenon going on in Leics, it's as if the sky is crying.

    Very dangerous stuff - you'll find patches of your yellow grass go a weird green colour by tomorrow
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,374
    Foxy said:

    A weird atmospheric phenomenon going on in Leics, it's as if the sky is crying.

    Maybe it's just sweating?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,487
    Nigelb said:

    Should you be arresting people who are not members of Palestine Action, but merely expressing support for it ?

    That seems a step too far limiting freedom of speech.

    Officers are responding to a protest in support of Palestine Action in Parliament Square.

    The group is now proscribed and expressing support for them is a criminal offence.

    Arrests are being made.

    https://x.com/metpoliceuk/status/1941481530003526025


    Further updates will be shared here.

    You would think these people could protest about the shit state of the UK rather than virtue signalling on something that the UK can do Feck all about and have nothing to do with.
    Mainly people who left these shitholes ( they will never stop hating and killing each other ) that are doing it as well , England is well and truly fecked and full of cuckoos
    .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,374
    edited July 6

    1

    Sean_F said:

    I see there’s a Lord Ashcroft poll:

    Reform 27%, Labour 22%, Conservatives 21%, Lib Dem 13%, Green 11%.

    Morning all
    That would be a nightmare to try and call, obviously Ref largest party but seats could go anywhere, anywhere!
    As Reform slides down into the mid-twenties, it gets far more exposed to the risk of tactical voting.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,487

    On topic:

    LongTime🤓FirstTime👨‍💻
    @LongTimeHistory
    ·
    13m
    Full local news coverage. 👇

    Cynthia Olivera is "desperate" after arrested by ICE at green card interview for being in the U.S. illegally.

    Both she and her husband supported Trump’s campaign promise to launch the largest deportation program for criminals in U.S. history.

    https://x.com/LongTimeHistory/status/1941636860884738144

    Stupid is as stupid does.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,487

    MattW said:

    A I correct that RefUK are back down to four MPs, possibly temporarily, because something else has emerged concerning James McMurdock?

    Theres claims he took tax payers money to support businesses that existed in name only. The absolute state of reform. They will get no where near power.
    He was far from alone, many politicians and their chums did well out of covid.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,487
    edited July 6
    HYUFD said:

    'Ban foreigners from claiming disability benefits, say Tories
    Kemi Badenoch makes welfare a dividing line with Labour and Reform'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/07/05/ban-foreigners-from-claiming-disability-benefits-tories/

    should be benefits full stop, especially illegal boat/lorry people
    No mercy for criminals of any sort, home grown ones should be barred from benefits system as well
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,776
    Andy_JS said:

    The internet's rubbish, social media is rubbish, phones are rubbish, etc, etc, etc.

    Can I interest you in a copy of the Spectator?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,425
    Morning, PB.

    These 82-year old grandmothers getting arrested for holding up Palestine Action placards are concerning. Another example of us graduallh becoming more illiberal on protest than the Western European norm, contrary to the national self-image, and I wonder if the younger Keir Starmer human rights lawyer could have imagined it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,487
    Leon said:

    And lo

    He waits. Two stony, burning amber eyes fixed on the grass, his branch swaying slightly in the quiet sun

    The little pb mammals disport under the trees. The dormice, the funny old toad, the harvest mouse, @JosiasJessop, @MattW, blissfully unaware. Instant death sits in the trees, and yet He waits

    THE FALCON

    You are off your nut
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,559

    1

    Sean_F said:

    I see there’s a Lord Ashcroft poll:

    Reform 27%, Labour 22%, Conservatives 21%, Lib Dem 13%, Green 11%.

    Morning all
    That would be a nightmare to try and call, obviously Ref largest party but seats could go anywhere, anywhere!
    As Reform slides down into the mid-twenties, it gets far more exposed to the risk of tactical voting.
    Very true. Equally with the 'big 2' around low 20s, none of their seats are 'safe' but they could equally win absurd seats as FPTP breaks down
    Part of me wants a 24/24/24/12/12 result (ref,con,lab,ld,grn) just so the entire night is 'WTF?!'
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,676

    NEW THREAD

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,129
    Leon said:

    And lo

    He waits. Two stony, burning amber eyes fixed on the grass, his branch swaying slightly in the quiet sun

    The little pb mammals disport under the trees. The dormice, the funny old toad, the harvest mouse, @JosiasJessop, @MattW, blissfully unaware. Instant death sits in the trees, and yet He waits

    THE FALCON

    A toad is not a mammal.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,776
    Leon said:

    And lo

    He waits. Two stony, burning amber eyes fixed on the grass, his branch swaying slightly in the quiet sun

    The little pb mammals disport under the trees. The dormice, the funny old toad, the harvest mouse, @JosiasJessop, @MattW, blissfully unaware. Instant death sits in the trees, and yet He waits

    pondering the question on everyone's lips. WHERE ARE THOSE MISSING FULL STOPS?

    FTFY.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,253

    Andy_JS said:

    The internet's rubbish, social media is rubbish, phones are rubbish, etc, etc, etc.

    Can I interest you in a copy of the Spectator?
    Young incels fleeing from the woke hell of social media have to depend on crumpled copies of the Spectator found in hedgerows for solace. One can only hope that the really good bits aren't on pages that are stuck together.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,577
    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    Should you be arresting people who are not members of Palestine Action, but merely expressing support for it ?

    That seems a step too far limiting freedom of speech.

    Officers are responding to a protest in support of Palestine Action in Parliament Square.

    The group is now proscribed and expressing support for them is a criminal offence.

    Arrests are being made.

    https://x.com/metpoliceuk/status/1941481530003526025


    Further updates will be shared here.

    You would think these people could protest about the shit state of the UK rather than virtue signalling on something that the UK can do Feck all about and have nothing to do with.
    Mainly people who left these shitholes ( they will never stop hating and killing each other ) that are doing it as well , England is well and truly fecked and full of cuckoos
    .
    More middle class wankers. Fuck them.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,425
    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    Should you be arresting people who are not members of Palestine Action, but merely expressing support for it ?

    That seems a step too far limiting freedom of speech.

    Officers are responding to a protest in support of Palestine Action in Parliament Square.

    The group is now proscribed and expressing support for them is a criminal offence.

    Arrests are being made.

    https://x.com/metpoliceuk/status/1941481530003526025


    Further updates will be shared here.

    You would think these people could protest about the shit state of the UK rather than virtue signalling on something that the UK can do Feck all about and have nothing to do with.
    Mainly people who left these shitholes ( they will never stop hating and killing each other ) that are doing it as well , England is well and truly fecked and full of cuckoos
    .
    More middle class wankers. Fuck them.
    That's great. So all grandmothers holding up placards should be arrested.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,148

    Morning, PB.

    These 82-year old grandmothers getting arrested for holding up Palestine Action placards are concerning. Another example of us graduallh becoming more illiberal on protest than the Western European norm, contrary to the national self-image, and I wonder if the younger Keir Starmer human rights lawyer could have imagined it.

    Funny how those typically interested in "the rule of law" don't give a damn the second the law contradicts what they hold dear.

    Palestine Action is a terrorist group.

    Supporting terrorist groups is a crime.

    People were arrested for committing a crime.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,877
    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    A weird atmospheric phenomenon going on in Leics, it's as if the sky is crying.

    Very dangerous stuff - you'll find patches of your yellow grass go a weird green colour by tomorrow
    Dihydrogen Monoxide is nasty stuff.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,425

    Morning, PB.

    These 82-year old grandmothers getting arrested for holding up Palestine Action placards are concerning. Another example of us graduallh becoming more illiberal on protest than the Western European norm, contrary to the national self-image, and I wonder if the younger Keir Starmer human rights lawyer could have imagined it.

    Funny how those typically interested in "the rule of law" don't give a damn the second the law contradicts what they hold dear.

    Palestine Action is a terrorist group.

    Supporting terrorist groups is a crime.

    People were arrested for committing a crime.
    If they consider that a specific law concerned may be illegitimate, many
    concerned with the ruie of law, historically,
    will have disputed it,
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,436

    betting Post:

    F1: backed Hulkenberg for points at 7.5 (boosted), with a hedge at 1.8.

    https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/07/british-grand-prix-2025-pre-race.html

    Given he starts 19th this might sound daft, and it might be. But he's scored from 16th, 13th, and 20th in recent races.

    Hi Morris Dancer, Son No1 and his girlfriend are having an amazing long weekend at Silverstone, they also ended up really enjoying the Fat Boy Slim concert last night before the big race today. I had never watched an F1 GP race before I met Fitaloon, but I quickly became a fan of the sport afterwards through him. We watched the Damon Hill documentary last night and I highly recommend it, the 1993/94 F1 seasons were the first time I managed to get to watch them all live along with Fitaloon which made this documentary all the more poignant because at the time I was busy having Sons No1 and 2. Previously my weekend shift work as a nurse meant I rarely got to watch most of the races live during the Ayrton Senna/Nigel Mansell era.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    edited July 6
    fitalass said:

    betting Post:

    F1: backed Hulkenberg for points at 7.5 (boosted), with a hedge at 1.8.

    https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/07/british-grand-prix-2025-pre-race.html

    Given he starts 19th this might sound daft, and it might be. But he's scored from 16th, 13th, and 20th in recent races.

    Hi Morris Dancer, Son No1 and his girlfriend are having an amazing long weekend at Silverstone, they also ended up really enjoying the Fat Boy Slim concert last night before the big race today. I had never watched an F1 GP race before I met Fitaloon, but I quickly became a fan of the sport afterwards through him. We watched the Damon Hill documentary last night and I highly recommend it, the 1993/94 F1 seasons were the first time I managed to get to watch them all live along with Fitaloon which made this documentary all the more poignant because at the time I was busy having Sons No1 and 2. Previously my weekend shift work as a nurse meant I rarely got to watch most of the races live during the Ayrton Senna/Nigel Mansell era.
    Hope your son and his girlfriend enjoy the race. Grid's set up very nicely.

    My time is shorter than a runtish hobbit but I'll try and remember about that documentary.

    Edited extra bit: and, with that, I must be off.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,577

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    Should you be arresting people who are not members of Palestine Action, but merely expressing support for it ?

    That seems a step too far limiting freedom of speech.

    Officers are responding to a protest in support of Palestine Action in Parliament Square.

    The group is now proscribed and expressing support for them is a criminal offence.

    Arrests are being made.

    https://x.com/metpoliceuk/status/1941481530003526025


    Further updates will be shared here.

    You would think these people could protest about the shit state of the UK rather than virtue signalling on something that the UK can do Feck all about and have nothing to do with.
    Mainly people who left these shitholes ( they will never stop hating and killing each other ) that are doing it as well , England is well and truly fecked and full of cuckoos
    .
    More middle class wankers. Fuck them.
    That's great. So all grandmothers holding up placards should be arrested.

    So lawbreakers should be ignored if they’re elderly ?
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