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The next Chancellor of the Exchequer – politicalbetting.com
The next Chancellor of the Exchequer – politicalbetting.com
After the events of the last couple of days Ladbrokes have put up a market on the next Chancellor and if Reeves resigns or is replaced as Chancellor I think the value is with Yvette Cooper for two reasons.
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Or Darren Jones? Perhaps he isn't a hoary enough old git, yet.
Diego Garcia, the best known one whom Trump sent to El Salvador illegally, and brought back by an extradition based on a weak criminal allegation to avoid admitting he f*cked it up, has requested to be held in custody whilst his latest case is processed because he is scared that if he is released Trump's ICE goons will yank him off the streets and send him to God-knows-where before it is concluded.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmyizIN4CBo
Edit: Jim Callaghan kept Denis Healey as Chancellor in 1976.
Yes, but far worse for the UK economy because she will think she can actually try to sell her first budget to the electorate and the markets while Truss hid behind the door of No10 along with her chancellor next door when they delivered their own bombshell budget. A huge error, and no wonder the markets reacted the way they did! But without Labour having the get of jail card to remove Rayner as swiftly in their leadership rules as the Conservatives did with Truss, and more importantly without the same panicked spine the Conservative backbenchers found really quickly towards the end of the last Parliament I think the current Labour Parliamentary party is going to quickly take us to the Corbynista economics we swerved in 2017 & 2019. Take your seats, fasten your seatbelts and set them to brace...
If Starmer sacks his lightning rod he creates a vacancy.
I suppose we will see the detail later today, but all those new neighbourhood health centres and staff are going to need funding, and it's not obvious where either that capital or revenue are coming from. Or the trained staff for that matter. The NHS workforce plan seems to have all gone quiet since it's announcement.
I am not convinced by AI either. It confabulates too much to be reliable for medical notes.
There are many problems though with General Practice, but perhaps the main and most intractable one is the loss of clinical skills and confidence to investigate and manage disease themselves. The loss of the senior experience and rise of defensive medicine makes that very hard to restore.
I actually think he's too gutless to sack her, and they are forcing her to resign behind the scenes. Starmer is all about self-preservation, and will want to avoid the 'PM sacking their Chancellor' curse, but if she does it that looks OK on Starmer. That fits with events to me. Let's see if she's loyal enough to just fade away and go, or if she decides enough is enough.
"Diego Garcia" -> "Abrego Garcia"
So instead, Ed Milliband, can make net zero and the green industrial revolution the story of his Chancellorship.
Love a chuckle in the morning.
Starmer citing GB Energy as one of the Government's alleged successes got the biggest laugh of the day yesterday - I'm sure it can't have all been from the Tory benches.
He’s a TV personality now. He’s moved on and he’s far more personable than he ever was as a Brownite.
If Starmer wants her gone but is considered to have bullied her into 'resigning' so he could pretend he didn't sack her that'll play far worse than just axing her.
And morning popcorners.
Anyone else with the same issue?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/02/you-may-not-shed-tear-reeves-worse-to-come
The result of all of these is that consultants such as myself were involved in matters well within the competence of the solicitor and I suspect this is an exact analogy with general practice. It is inefficient and puts much more pressure on the whole system but once established it is difficult to stop.
UK government bonds rally after Starmer says Reeves will remain for ‘a long time’
https://x.com/FT/status/1940668547677487375
Can't see Starmer doing it though.
I'm only sat on the outside I know, but I look at the structure of the English NHS and think we can remove so much cost by getting rid of competitive internal structures. My old community had a health centre with two GP practices inside it competing for patients. Each then has separate connections with and contracts for care when its patients need referring or transferring. Each had its own management systems and structures and staff. In a new community based structure why would you need the cost and complexity of that?
On the rare occasion the quotes don’t start with “when I was DPP*…” he’s trying to sneer at his opponents and makes himself a massive hostage to fortune:
“Every time there's been the threat of a rebellion he's backed down. The one thing you get if you win the leadership of your party is the right to say 'I've won the leadership and I'm going to do this, and we're going to do it and this is what I'm saying we're going to do with the party, and we're going to do it’. He doesn't have the ability to do that because he hasn't got a mandate.”
Speaking on the Political Party podcast with Matt Forde, as cited in "Sir Keir Starmer: I loathed unprincipled, lying Boris Johnson" The Times (21 February 2023)
* his being DPP is often held up as an example of his ability - out of interest what is the competition like for that role? Is he up against thousands of potential rivals, hundreds, tens? Is it a bit of a niche role that frankly, most of the top lawyers don’t really want so not a real reflection of him being the best of the best?
I'm surprised we've not yet heard anonymous negative stories about Starmer's time as DPP.
The fundamentals are that there's little to no scope to increase borrowing from already high levels (for a non-recessionary period). Reeves, for all her flaws, understands that. There's a long list of Labour MPs who don't.
Rebels needed to be made to understand they were voting for £5bn of spending cuts or tax rises elsewhere.
Even in hospital Practice the same happens, when more recently appointed Consultants are reluctant to make decisions that are well within their competence and skills without a second (delaying) opinion or loads of unnecessary further tests.
I suppose it was ever so, and a sign that we are both getting old!
(I was second the Surgical prize in my medical school finals for answering the question "what further tests would you do on this patient?" with the reply "I would do no further tests, the patient needs to go straight to theatre for a laprotomy". The smile on the examining panel of senior surgeons at my youthful confidence still warms my heart.)
It’s not like firing a chancellor is ending their career, sending them into hell like penury etc.
The biggest problem is that if she goes, the markets will see that as the loss of any financial restraint on spending. With a government not prepared to raise taxes.
Starmer knows that the autumn budget is going to be brutal, politically. After all that talk of not coming back for more tax rises and the Tories creating black holes, Labour have their own to fill and they’ll have to raise tax. This was never part of the game plan.
He can keep Reeves to deliver the bad news then get rid of her early in the new year (or after the May elections, but I think they’ll probably try for a relaunch before then).
That said, I think it is entirely possible Reeves goes of her own volition soon. The pressure is clearly getting to her (no matter if she is facing personal issues too), the backbenchers want her gone (and she knows it), she has absolutely zero good news to deliver in autumn and it’s rather embarrassing to have to stand up and row back on everything you said before, and Starmer just humiliated her on national telly by failing to back her or check she was ok (intentionally or unintentionally). Politicians do have a brass neck and they like the trappings of office but everyone has their limits.
I worked for an oil company for a while. They had a GP practise (NHS) in the building (also dentist). The anger from my then GP, when I switched over was quite something.
Mental health in particular needs far more drop-in services out with GP gatekeeping.
Social prescribers. And talking therapy.
This negates the need for more doctors.
We're NHS Scotland not England so it's a completely different organisation. Our GP surgery is in a practice which has surgeries in multiple villages. They will often give you an appointment with a random GP in a different village. Which only works if you have a car as there is no public transport between the villages.
My problem with the false choice narrative is that many of the choices are crap, and most people want local services.
The chance may be small, but not Zero.
SKS could not have been clearer that Reeves is CoE now and beyond the next election, at least that is so for this morning...
Nope. God has told us over and over there are no simple “cheats” to wellness and resilience - if you want happiness it must be earned.
Such international disruptions are likely weighing heavily on the Reserve Bank’s considerations ahead of their next meeting. Many economists are anticipating another rate cut to provide additional economic stimulus, and we believe the RBA may indeed choose to act decisively to help bolster Australia’s economy during this challenging period."
Seems Trump is disrupting far and wide. Wonder how many Chancellors or Bank heads will roll in the next year or so.
@TSE Thanks for the link. YC for CofE .... as I mentioned before. Labour's right needs to move to head off their left wing.
What campaign promises would have been made?
Who would be putative CofE?
How long before they fell out with Nigel?
Could it be the metals trader himself?
Stay tuned.
childrenmarkets".Keilar: You’re taking issue with the CBO estimate?
Burchett: The office is very partisan…
Keilar: So in January 2024, there was a Republican who trusted the CBO so much that they reintroduced a resolution to require the house clerk to read the CBO estimate of any bill. I believe that was you, sir...
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1940565297603428848
There's no way out, they've painted themselves into a corner and she will resign before long.
If in the future a Reform alone government looks probable, I think that by then Reform will have acted in policy and fiscal terms to move to the social democratic centre. I actually think Reform have already started the process.
Both would be bad, but neither would be Trump or El Salvador.
But for all the sniping, all the alternatives are probably a lot worse.
Giving primary healthcare trusts the ability to do this could allow this new policy enough power to deliver.
As the internet is not a single massive database, the idea that the NHS should have such an approach has been a huge mistake. This is a policy that has several merits, and I have not been saying that very often over the past year.
Everybody's body is different and there's no one size fits all solution. You need to find something that works for you. You also need to find something you enjoy, so you can maintain it.
For me a Carnivore, Ketogenic diet has worked well as it naturally suppresses my appetite and its food I enjoy anyway so I can maintain it.
Nearly two years on my diet and nearly at goal weight now, down nearly 70 lbs. But I wouldn't say everyone should do this, I'd recommend it to anyone who wants to try it but you need to find something that works for you.
Everyone in the plant dropped round - for hours - to see if it had dried yet.
The next day they sent him to the stores, for a long weight... He was there hours.
2. A lot on the right are getting very ooky about universal services.
3. Mental illness is still not seen as proper illness.
Sometimes, the public are just wrong about things.
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5381515-house-gop-advances-trump-megabill/
..Hardline conservatives have hammered the “big, beautiful bill,” wary that it cuts too little in federal spending and piles too much onto the national debt. Those concerns only grew after the package returned from the Senate, which had altered the initial House bill in ways that increased deficit spending.
On Wednesday morning, a number of hardline conservatives had vowed to vote against the rule if it came to the floor. By Wednesday evening, those warnings had softened slightly. But shortly before the House rule hit the floor, several spending hawks told reporters that if Johnson called the vote they would abstain, requesting more time to learn the details of the Senate-passed bill.
The Speaker called the vote anyway, successfully calling their bluff..
Monday: filled in online contact form requesting appointment with non-urgent symptoms.
Wednesday: received text message asking me to phone to make appointment.
Today: phoned to make appointment. Three attempts to use the phone virtual receptionist failed (on verification). There was a hub number on the practice's website but I could not find it. Called reception who can only make appointments for today, not for the future. Appointment made for this afternoon. Apologies to any urgent patients for taking this slot.
So rather than yet another (third?) attempt to build Lord Darzi's NHS wet dream, maybe Streeting should start with the small stuff, like fixing hospital signs, GP booking systems, and trainee place allocation.
I still think she has been a poor Chancellor, whose bad decisions have largely been responsible for the mess the government finds itself in now. However I do have some sympathy that she finds herself up against a cohort of particularly foolish Labour MPs, too.
It is rather depressing to think that she’s the least worst option.
...
Motability (through which enhanced PIP recipients can choose brand new cars for free, or massively discounted models of swankier cars including BMWs, Mercedes and Audis) taking up almost one in five new car sales in the UK.
Motability cars even come with insurance, servicing, and breakdown cover all included so not a penny has to be paid by an enhanced rate PIP recipient for their new car, fresh from the showroom.
https://tomharwood.substack.com/p/why-rachel-reeves-is-so-miserable
There is actually a lot of other interesting info in the article.
The usual hostile psychoanalysis notwithstanding (and how often do we do that to our Prime Ministers whether we love them or loathe them?), most British Governments have run into trouble because of the deterioration of the political and economic relationship between No.10 and No.11.
The tension between the political requirements of the Prime Minister and the economic realities of the Treasury and Chancellor have always been a part of British political life and whether it's Peter Thorneycroft, Jim Callaghan, Norman Lamont or Nigel Lawson, the Chancellor is the one who ends up leaving office yet the lasting damage to the Prime Minister afflicts the remainder of their tenure.
Whether you think it's now a loveless marriage between Nos 10 and 11 - a year on from a loveless landslide, apparently? doesn't much matter. The old adage is you either hang together or you hang separately.
I'm sure Starmer and Reeves knew when they entered Government last year it was going to be tough and it's been probably tougher than they imagined. The central conundrum remains as untouched now as it was under Sunak and Hunt. With rising demands on expenditure from an ageing population and a shifting international order, how can you (or even should you?) seek to being the public finances under control, reducing deficit and borrowing so future generations, who will have their own spending priorities, aren't encumbered by a lifetime of debt interest payments?
And neither did I fall for going to the stores for a tin of tartan paint...
Most GPs are digitised, IIRC
The sane approach is a gradual building of bridges between systems, rolling updates heading towards a new (and as you say) decentralised system.
I would say that you could get a fairly integrated system in about 20 years.
Excess capacity is too often seen as waste rather than the lubrication needed for smooth working. We need capacity for peak demand, not average or trough demand.
If there’s a flaw, it’s that I don’t think the systems are linked, so Barts can’t see my GP test results and vice versa.
Estimates are she needs £20bn, and the figures I’ve seen suggest the freezing of the thresholds will only cover £8bn. The ISA change will be relatively small fry.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-14804871/Liverpool-Diogo-Jota-dies-car-accident-aged-28.html
Starmer trying to close down the 'hes a bastard' line saying Reeves tears were 'entirely personal' (i dont believe that for a second) and this quote
He adds: "I personally didn't even appreciate it was happening in the chamber. I came in and I've got questions being fired at me at PMQs, so I'm constantly up at the despatch box and down."
If only those bastards would stop with the questions at PMQs
He only got married a few weeks ago.
I once thought I would need knee surgery. (I didn't, it just seems that it took a lot longer to heal than the "up to six months" my GP warned about, plus some gym work to develop my muscles)
After surgery I would be somewhat incapacitated. I lived on my own in SW London and didn't really know anyone locally. It would have been much better for me to have the surgery near friends or family so I could stay with them after the surgery, rather than my "local" hospital in Kingston, but it seems the NHS couldn't do that.
Why not manage services nationally for the young and relatively fit who can travel, and keep local services for the elderly and infirm?
The NHS should certainly layout a DB schema for patient data and auditing access etc and make that schema publiclly available. They could even potentially make a little money by running a certification program so for a fee a company can have their software certified as NHS ready
But the next best thing is an online appointment request, which is what I submitted Monday as detailed earlier. I was expecting triage to be followed by a phone call from the practice to book an appointment if necessary (rather than, say, blood tests). What I got was a text message asking me to phone to make an appointment, which is what I would have done three days earlier had there not been the online request.