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Two NYC bets you should be making – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,552
edited July 2 in General
Two NYC bets you should be making – politicalbetting.com

The New York mayoral election has garnered a lot attention with Zohran Mamdani winning the Democratic Party who many on the GOP have dubbed a communist. The state of moral turpitude of the current iteration of the GOP is that elected officials want Mamdani deported and in fact President Trump has indicated he would arrest him.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,881
    edited July 2
    Interesting.

    But I think Mamdani will win anyway.
    Trading bet/value loser ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,881
    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,881
    A former F.B.I. agent who was charged with encouraging the mob that stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, to kill police officers has been named an adviser to the DOJ task force Trump established to seek retribution against political enemies>/i>
    https://x.com/tripgabriel/status/1940205005472243769
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,710
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting.

    But I think Mamdani will win anyway.
    Trading bet/value loser ?

    Agreed. The fact that Trump hates him is a selling point in NYC, not a weakness.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,054
    edited July 2
    Nigelb said:

    A former F.B.I. agent who was charged with encouraging the mob that stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, to kill police officers has been named an adviser to the DOJ task force Trump established to seek retribution against political enemies>/i>
    https://x.com/tripgabriel/status/1940205005472243769

    Sheldon, you remember when we got no readings for weeks and you were acting like an obnoxious giant dictator?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,581
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting.

    But I think Mamdani will win anyway.
    Trading bet/value loser ?

    Yes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,581
    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    Well done for posting that before WilliamGlenn.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    F1: for some insane reason, Alpine are now considering axing Colapinto for Bottas.

    Make a car that's not slow.

    Bottas, unless he still has freedom to pursue a Cadillac seat, should refuse.

    In terrible news, Domenicali's meeting Starmer:
    https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/articles/c8d66203q1no

    If the PM's recent performance is anything to go by he'll compromise with Ed Miliband and throw F1 out of the country to reduce carbon emissions.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,044
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    A former F.B.I. agent who was charged with encouraging the mob that stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, to kill police officers has been named an adviser to the DOJ task force Trump established to seek retribution against political enemies>/i>
    https://x.com/tripgabriel/status/1940205005472243769

    Sheldon, you remember when we got no readings for weeks and you were acting like an obnoxious giant dictator?
    Not sure you needed to add the 'tator'.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,581
    But as promised I have given you a thread on the alternative vote system.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836
    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    I'm sure Ireland will make up the difference.

    Why does the parasite country of the western world never receive any criticism ?

    Ditto Austria.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,079
    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    Trump and the GOP are making it very clear who they see the 'enemy' as being.

    It is not America's traditional geopolitical enemies, who actively work against the USA's best interests.

    It is the 'enemy' within. The people who do not agree with them; who look or act differently. The poor. Those with no voice or power.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,819
    Morning all :)

    Nice to see my local MP getting plenty of mentions in the media. Sir Stephen Timms has been MP for East Ham (in its various guises) since 1994 and is a very good constituency MP - I was slightly surprised he agreed to do another Parliament but that's the nature of the man. Whether, after this, he will want to do yet another Parliament is debatable and who Labour might find as his successor is another matter.

    We've been here many times before under both Labour and Conservative Governments with contentious legislation watered down or scrapped just before a vote. It reminds us governing coalitions are just that - this isn't North Korea - and sometimes the leadership reads the mood of the party badly.

    It "weakens" Starmer after a fashion - it reminds me a lot of Labour MPs are sitting on very small majorities (as are a lot of Conservative MPs too) and not wanting to obviously antagonise a segment of the electorate for whom there is wider sympathy seems good politics in the present.

    The problem, as always, is the future when it becomes the present. If there are to be no savings on welfare reform (or at least this part of it), where and how are the public finances are to be brought under some kind of control? Rises on income tax, NI and VAT ruled out again this morning by Pat McFadden, the John Reid de nos jours, so it'll be other taxes which will have to rise or other parts of Government (local?) which will take the hit.

    Significant and substantive welfare and social care changes remain elusive and the fundamental problem of dealing with an ageing society remains largely unresolved. It doesn't help when you get Badenoch-style exaggerations of the scale of the problem but the problem itself, multi-layered and nuanced as it is, remains in the "too difficult" tray and the poor can braces for another kicking.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,581
    edited July 2
    The Tory Party are really desperate, plus these are the shittest prizes ever, from my latest email from CCHQ

    Dear xxxx,

    The Membership Referral Competition is now live!

    Kemi is calling on all Party members to help renew our Party and to recruit likeminded family, friends, and members of your community.

    [🎬 WATCH 🎬].

    Our members are the lifeblood of the Party. You all do so much - from helping to design policy, to fighting campaigns, to selecting and serving as elected representatives.

    And so, from today the competition goes live to sign up as many new members as you can in the coming months.

    By signing up members with your personal referral code, we can see who our strongest recruiters are, and you can win prizes for your amazing efforts.

    1st – Signed bottles of wine, from both Party Co-Chairmen and the Party Leader, a personal thank you letter from Kemi, and two free passes to this year’s Party Conference in Manchester.

    2nd – A signed bottle of wine from both Party Co-Chairmen and a personal thank you letter from them.

    3rd – A Party hamper full of Party products.

    And 4th place to 10th place will all win a £25 Party Shop voucher each.


    All you need to do is ask supporters you know to sign up to membership via our website at https://www.conservatives.com/join and ask them to use your Referral Code at the bottom of the joining page to tell us you have signed them up.

    Your Referral Code is: XXXXXX, we've also included it in the mailtolink on the first button in this email.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,420

    But as promised I have given you a thread on the alternative vote system.

    I noticed the glowing comment about AV.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,581
    Taz said:

    But as promised I have given you a thread on the alternative vote system.

    I noticed the glowing comment about AV.
    Good.

    I have asked a pollster to carry out a poll on how Brits would vote under FPTP and AV at the next GE.

    We are likely to see radically different results.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,191

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    I'm sure Ireland will make up the difference.

    Why does the parasite country of the western world never receive any criticism ?

    Ditto Austria.
    Yes, I've been astounded for many years that Ireland never receives any criticism on here.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,881

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    Well done for posting that before WilliamGlenn.
    Thank you for your attention in this matter.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    Trump and the GOP are making it very clear who they see the 'enemy' as being.

    It is not America's traditional geopolitical enemies, who actively work against the USA's best interests.

    It is the 'enemy' within. The people who do not agree with them; who look or act differently. The poor. Those with no voice or power.
    They do, although with different ideas of what they want - see the Trump/Musk split.

    Likewise many Dems also view the enemies as internal - internal within their own party and internal within their country.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,044

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    Trump and the GOP are making it very clear who they see the 'enemy' as being.

    It is not America's traditional geopolitical enemies, who actively work against the USA's best interests.

    It is the 'enemy' within. The people who do not agree with them; who look or act differently. The poor. Those with no voice or power.
    Nah, they don't care about the poor or those with no voice or power. They're not the enemy, they're just someone they don't care about.

    The real 'enemy within' for them is the Democrats. Worse those who use their voices and power to speak for, or contribute towards, the Democrats.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,710

    F1: for some insane reason, Alpine are now considering axing Colapinto for Bottas.

    Make a car that's not slow.

    Bottas, unless he still has freedom to pursue a Cadillac seat, should refuse.

    In terrible news, Domenicali's meeting Starmer:
    https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/articles/c8d66203q1no

    If the PM's recent performance is anything to go by he'll compromise with Ed Miliband and throw F1 out of the country to reduce carbon emissions.

    Or give them the Isle of Man.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,420

    Taz said:

    But as promised I have given you a thread on the alternative vote system.

    I noticed the glowing comment about AV.
    Good.

    I have asked a pollster to carry out a poll on how Brits would vote under FPTP and AV at the next GE.

    We are likely to see radically different results.
    Now that would be interesting to see.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,054
    DavidL said:

    F1: for some insane reason, Alpine are now considering axing Colapinto for Bottas.

    Make a car that's not slow.

    Bottas, unless he still has freedom to pursue a Cadillac seat, should refuse.

    In terrible news, Domenicali's meeting Starmer:
    https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/articles/c8d66203q1no

    If the PM's recent performance is anything to go by he'll compromise with Ed Miliband and throw F1 out of the country to reduce carbon emissions.

    Or give them the Isle of Man.
    That would reinforce the sexism inherent in F1 and would therefore be unacceptable.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    I'm sure Ireland will make up the difference.

    Why does the parasite country of the western world never receive any criticism ?

    Ditto Austria.
    Yes, I've been astounded for many years that Ireland never receives any criticism on here.
    We'll look forward to your next criticism of Ireland's level of defence spending and military aid for Ukraine.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,881

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    I'm sure Ireland will make up the difference.

    Why does the parasite country of the western world never receive any criticism ?

    Ditto Austria.
    Yes, I've been astounded for many years that Ireland never receives any criticism on here.
    LOL.

    In any even, it's close to irrelevant whataboutery. While it doesn't absolve them from quite justified criticism, Ireland's contribution, or lack of it, will make almost no difference to the outcome of the invasion.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,054
    edited July 2

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    A former F.B.I. agent who was charged with encouraging the mob that stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, to kill police officers has been named an adviser to the DOJ task force Trump established to seek retribution against political enemies>/i>
    https://x.com/tripgabriel/status/1940205005472243769

    Sheldon, you remember when we got no readings for weeks and you were acting like an obnoxious giant dictator?
    Not sure you needed to add the 'tator'.
    Nobody sane and possessed of functioning eyesight has ever accused Trump of having a giant dick.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,044
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    A former F.B.I. agent who was charged with encouraging the mob that stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, to kill police officers has been named an adviser to the DOJ task force Trump established to seek retribution against political enemies>/i>
    https://x.com/tripgabriel/status/1940205005472243769

    Sheldon, you remember when we got no readings for weeks and you were acting like an obnoxious giant dictator?
    Not sure you needed to add the 'tator'.
    Nobody sane and possessed of functioning eyesight has ever accused Trump of having a giant dick.
    Being one on the other hand.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    DavidL said:

    F1: for some insane reason, Alpine are now considering axing Colapinto for Bottas.

    Make a car that's not slow.

    Bottas, unless he still has freedom to pursue a Cadillac seat, should refuse.

    In terrible news, Domenicali's meeting Starmer:
    https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/articles/c8d66203q1no

    If the PM's recent performance is anything to go by he'll compromise with Ed Miliband and throw F1 out of the country to reduce carbon emissions.

    Or give them the Isle of Man.
    To be fair, unless it's Alpine in charge, I imagine most F1 bosses would do a better job of governing somewhere than the current crop of politicians.

    The idea a marginal saving doesn't matter is practically blasphemy in F1-land.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,054

    DavidL said:

    F1: for some insane reason, Alpine are now considering axing Colapinto for Bottas.

    Make a car that's not slow.

    Bottas, unless he still has freedom to pursue a Cadillac seat, should refuse.

    In terrible news, Domenicali's meeting Starmer:
    https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/articles/c8d66203q1no

    If the PM's recent performance is anything to go by he'll compromise with Ed Miliband and throw F1 out of the country to reduce carbon emissions.

    Or give them the Isle of Man.
    To be fair, unless it's Alpine in charge, I imagine most F1 bosses would do a better job of governing somewhere than the current crop of politicians.

    The idea a marginal saving doesn't matter is practically blasphemy in F1-land.
    Well, Starmer's not proving too hot at saving marginals right now.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,079

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    Trump and the GOP are making it very clear who they see the 'enemy' as being.

    It is not America's traditional geopolitical enemies, who actively work against the USA's best interests.

    It is the 'enemy' within. The people who do not agree with them; who look or act differently. The poor. Those with no voice or power.
    They do, although with different ideas of what they want - see the Trump/Musk split.

    Likewise many Dems also view the enemies as internal - internal within their own party and internal within their country.
    You cannot compare what the GOP are doing with the Dems. I'm sorry, you just cannot.

    What you say about the Dems can be said about 'many' in the political parties in other countries, including here. What the GOP are doing is orders of magnitude greater.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,044
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    F1: for some insane reason, Alpine are now considering axing Colapinto for Bottas.

    Make a car that's not slow.

    Bottas, unless he still has freedom to pursue a Cadillac seat, should refuse.

    In terrible news, Domenicali's meeting Starmer:
    https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/articles/c8d66203q1no

    If the PM's recent performance is anything to go by he'll compromise with Ed Miliband and throw F1 out of the country to reduce carbon emissions.

    Or give them the Isle of Man.
    To be fair, unless it's Alpine in charge, I imagine most F1 bosses would do a better job of governing somewhere than the current crop of politicians.

    The idea a marginal saving doesn't matter is practically blasphemy in F1-land.
    Well, Starmer's not proving too hot at saving marginals right now.
    He might just about to save the marginal in Bootle.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,079

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    Trump and the GOP are making it very clear who they see the 'enemy' as being.

    It is not America's traditional geopolitical enemies, who actively work against the USA's best interests.

    It is the 'enemy' within. The people who do not agree with them; who look or act differently. The poor. Those with no voice or power.
    Nah, they don't care about the poor or those with no voice or power. They're not the enemy, they're just someone they don't care about.

    The real 'enemy within' for them is the Democrats. Worse those who use their voices and power to speak for, or contribute towards, the Democrats.
    They're not deporting Dems specifically.

    Yet.

    The GOP and ICE are deporting - and that's a kind term for it - the groups I mentioned.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    I'm sure Ireland will make up the difference.

    Why does the parasite country of the western world never receive any criticism ?

    Ditto Austria.
    Yes, I've been astounded for many years that Ireland never receives any criticism on here.
    LOL.

    In any even, it's close to irrelevant whataboutery. While it doesn't absolve them from quite justified criticism, Ireland's contribution, or lack of it, will make almost no difference to the outcome of the invasion.
    From a country with 10% of the GDP of Ireland:

    Latvia is sending a new military aid package to Ukraine, which will include 42 Patria armored personnel carriers, according to the country’s defense minister. The package will also include spare parts, ammunition, and other weapons.

    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1940288385727570415?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    It all adds up.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,385
    edited July 2
    DavidL said:

    F1: for some insane reason, Alpine are now considering axing Colapinto for Bottas.

    Make a car that's not slow.

    Bottas, unless he still has freedom to pursue a Cadillac seat, should refuse.

    In terrible news, Domenicali's meeting Starmer:
    https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/articles/c8d66203q1no

    If the PM's recent performance is anything to go by he'll compromise with Ed Miliband and throw F1 out of the country to reduce carbon emissions.

    Or give them the Isle of Man.
    Give them the Isle of Lewis, just to piss off Verstappen.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,003
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    There are hints, after an extremely difficult Spring, that the battlefield is starting to swing back Ukraine's way driven by their superior technology both in drones and western supplied equipment, and exhaustion on the part of the Russians. I wonder if Trump and his coterie of traitors has picked up on this and feel the need to reduce the pressure on their masters.
    The big Russian offensive, expected this year, has not materialised.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,079

    DavidL said:

    F1: for some insane reason, Alpine are now considering axing Colapinto for Bottas.

    Make a car that's not slow.

    Bottas, unless he still has freedom to pursue a Cadillac seat, should refuse.

    In terrible news, Domenicali's meeting Starmer:
    https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/articles/c8d66203q1no

    If the PM's recent performance is anything to go by he'll compromise with Ed Miliband and throw F1 out of the country to reduce carbon emissions.

    Or give them the Isle of Man.
    To be fair, unless it's Alpine in charge, I imagine most F1 bosses would do a better job of governing somewhere than the current crop of politicians.

    The idea a marginal saving doesn't matter is practically blasphemy in F1-land.
    I think that's a massive misunderstanding of the way F1 operates.

    F1 is a series of businesses run as a members-only club. Success in the 'sport' relies not only in good management, or quality engineering, but also how well you get on with the others in the club, even when they are your opponents. Also in the club, and setting the rules, is a top-level organisation whose power also relies on those other members.

    IMV none of the current crop of team bosses would make good top-level politicians, because the required skills are very different. That's not a criticism of them.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,060

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    I'm sure Ireland will make up the difference.

    Why does the parasite country of the western world never receive any criticism ?

    Ditto Austria.
    You are not allowed to criticise those that control the world ..... Austria maybe a bit.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,079
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    There are hints, after an extremely difficult Spring, that the battlefield is starting to swing back Ukraine's way driven by their superior technology both in drones and western supplied equipment, and exhaustion on the part of the Russians. I wonder if Trump and his coterie of traitors has picked up on this and feel the need to reduce the pressure on their masters.
    The big Russian offensive, expected this year, has not materialised.
    Apparently it has, around Sumy. It's just that it appears to have failed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703

    DavidL said:

    F1: for some insane reason, Alpine are now considering axing Colapinto for Bottas.

    Make a car that's not slow.

    Bottas, unless he still has freedom to pursue a Cadillac seat, should refuse.

    In terrible news, Domenicali's meeting Starmer:
    https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/articles/c8d66203q1no

    If the PM's recent performance is anything to go by he'll compromise with Ed Miliband and throw F1 out of the country to reduce carbon emissions.

    Or give them the Isle of Man.
    To be fair, unless it's Alpine in charge, I imagine most F1 bosses would do a better job of governing somewhere than the current crop of politicians.

    The idea a marginal saving doesn't matter is practically blasphemy in F1-land.
    I think that's a massive misunderstanding of the way F1 operates.

    F1 is a series of businesses run as a members-only club. Success in the 'sport' relies not only in good management, or quality engineering, but also how well you get on with the others in the club, even when they are your opponents. Also in the club, and setting the rules, is a top-level organisation whose power also relies on those other members.

    IMV none of the current crop of team bosses would make good top-level politicians, because the required skills are very different. That's not a criticism of them.
    I was thinking more along the lines of general competence (or lack thereof) than the specific rules/skills of F1 compared to or contrasted with politics, to be honest.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,130
    DavidL said:

    F1: for some insane reason, Alpine are now considering axing Colapinto for Bottas.

    Make a car that's not slow.

    Bottas, unless he still has freedom to pursue a Cadillac seat, should refuse.

    In terrible news, Domenicali's meeting Starmer:
    https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/articles/c8d66203q1no

    If the PM's recent performance is anything to go by he'll compromise with Ed Miliband and throw F1 out of the country to reduce carbon emissions.

    Or give them the Isle of Man.
    Back in 1955 I was upbraided as a smart Alec by our geography master when I said that "Man" and "Wight" were the same thing (I had a dictionary, see)

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,079

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    I'm sure Ireland will make up the difference.

    Why does the parasite country of the western world never receive any criticism ?

    Ditto Austria.
    Yes, I've been astounded for many years that Ireland never receives any criticism on here.
    LOL.

    In any even, it's close to irrelevant whataboutery. While it doesn't absolve them from quite justified criticism, Ireland's contribution, or lack of it, will make almost no difference to the outcome of the invasion.
    From a country with 10% of the GDP of Ireland:

    Latvia is sending a new military aid package to Ukraine, which will include 42 Patria armored personnel carriers, according to the country’s defense minister. The package will also include spare parts, ammunition, and other weapons.

    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1940288385727570415?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    It all adds up.
    Some Irish politicians have been (ahem) somewhat against Ukraine. Fortunately at least one has lost her seat:

    https://www.finegael.ie/irish-left-sinn-fein-vote-against-support-for-ukraine-burke/
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,130
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    There are hints, after an extremely difficult Spring, that the battlefield is starting to swing back Ukraine's way driven by their superior technology both in drones and western supplied equipment, and exhaustion on the part of the Russians. I wonder if Trump and his coterie of traitors has picked up on this and feel the need to reduce the pressure on their masters.
    The big Russian offensive, expected this year, has not materialised.
    otoh the Russians are pretty much always offensive

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,675
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Nice to see my local MP getting plenty of mentions in the media. Sir Stephen Timms has been MP for East Ham (in its various guises) since 1994 and is a very good constituency MP - I was slightly surprised he agreed to do another Parliament but that's the nature of the man. Whether, after this, he will want to do yet another Parliament is debatable and who Labour might find as his successor is another matter.

    We've been here many times before under both Labour and Conservative Governments with contentious legislation watered down or scrapped just before a vote. It reminds us governing coalitions are just that - this isn't North Korea - and sometimes the leadership reads the mood of the party badly.

    It "weakens" Starmer after a fashion - it reminds me a lot of Labour MPs are sitting on very small majorities (as are a lot of Conservative MPs too) and not wanting to obviously antagonise a segment of the electorate for whom there is wider sympathy seems good politics in the present.

    The problem, as always, is the future when it becomes the present. If there are to be no savings on welfare reform (or at least this part of it), where and how are the public finances are to be brought under some kind of control? Rises on income tax, NI and VAT ruled out again this morning by Pat McFadden, the John Reid de nos jours, so it'll be other taxes which will have to rise or other parts of Government (local?) which will take the hit.

    Significant and substantive welfare and social care changes remain elusive and the fundamental problem of dealing with an ageing society remains largely unresolved. It doesn't help when you get Badenoch-style exaggerations of the scale of the problem but the problem itself, multi-layered and nuanced as it is, remains in the "too difficult" tray and the poor can braces for another kicking.

    There are several problems for the government in all this, and it is all self-inflicted.

    The first is that the lack of engagement with MPs, and the silly games that have been played with concessions, means the government has now been exposed as having no backbone and no appetite to deliver “difficult” policy. If you pull the plug on pretty much the whole thing at the 11th hour, it isn’t edifying, and it shows you’ll crumble when the heat is on. They should never have taken it to the brink in the first place if they were afraid of following through with putting it to a vote.

    But the other thing it does is expose, once again, the exceptionally poor political tactics being played by Reeves and the Treasury. These were cuts generated to restore an exceptionally tight amount of fiscal headroom, and it feels like tax and spend policy, rather than having a vision or an end goal, is purely reactive now to the whims of parliament and any small economic shock or other indicator. This is an exceptionally short termist way of running government, it doesn’t bring MPs along with you, and I think the approach is quickly running out of road. The experiment failed, and Reeves should be out on her ear.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    Trump and the GOP are making it very clear who they see the 'enemy' as being.

    It is not America's traditional geopolitical enemies, who actively work against the USA's best interests.

    It is the 'enemy' within. The people who do not agree with them; who look or act differently. The poor. Those with no voice or power.
    They do, although with different ideas of what they want - see the Trump/Musk split.

    Likewise many Dems also view the enemies as internal - internal within their own party and internal within their country.
    You cannot compare what the GOP are doing with the Dems. I'm sorry, you just cannot.

    What you say about the Dems can be said about 'many' in the political parties in other countries, including here. What the GOP are doing is orders of magnitude greater.
    The Dems casually allowed millions of illegal immigrants to pour in.

    Many might view that as treasonable action or at least as a deliberate attempt to wage a socioeconomic war against internal opponents.

    That leads to a feedback reaction and the MAGA response - which will also lead to a feedback reaction and the Dems turning more extreme and flouting normal practices.

    Where it all began we can debate, where it will all end we don't know but its unlikely to be a good place.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,414
    Daily Record - 'Nicola Sturgeon's husband Peter Murrell granted legal aid after he was charged with embezzlement.' - 'EXCLUSIVE: The Daily Record can reveal the taxpayer is set to pay the former SNP CEO's legal bills.'
    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeons-husband-peter-murrell-35482891
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,819
    On topic.

    I'm struggling to see the value in betting Sliwa who would surely do much better if Cuomo and Adams weren't running.

    I can see the possibilities around Cuomo who is at least tied with Mamdani and 12s looks a decent price at this stage.

    The question is whether, absent the Democrat party machine, Cuomo can get enough Independent and possibly Republican voters to back them against Mamdani.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,366
    Morming all
    Has Kendall resigned yet?
    *Goes back to sleep*
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,079

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    Trump and the GOP are making it very clear who they see the 'enemy' as being.

    It is not America's traditional geopolitical enemies, who actively work against the USA's best interests.

    It is the 'enemy' within. The people who do not agree with them; who look or act differently. The poor. Those with no voice or power.
    They do, although with different ideas of what they want - see the Trump/Musk split.

    Likewise many Dems also view the enemies as internal - internal within their own party and internal within their country.
    You cannot compare what the GOP are doing with the Dems. I'm sorry, you just cannot.

    What you say about the Dems can be said about 'many' in the political parties in other countries, including here. What the GOP are doing is orders of magnitude greater.
    The Dems casually allowed millions of illegal immigrants to pour in.

    Many might view that as treasonable action or at least as a deliberate attempt to wage a socioeconomic war against internal opponents.
    (Snip)
    And so did previous Rep administrations. The USA was, and is, built on immigration.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,494
    stodge said:

    On topic.

    I'm struggling to see the value in betting Sliwa who would surely do much better if Cuomo and Adams weren't running.

    I can see the possibilities around Cuomo who is at least tied with Mamdani and 12s looks a decent price at this stage.

    The question is whether, absent the Democrat party machine, Cuomo can get enough Independent and possibly Republican voters to back them against Mamdani.

    Mamdani demonstrated that he could get the vote out - I really can't see how he doesn't win in November..
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    Trump and the GOP are making it very clear who they see the 'enemy' as being.

    It is not America's traditional geopolitical enemies, who actively work against the USA's best interests.

    It is the 'enemy' within. The people who do not agree with them; who look or act differently. The poor. Those with no voice or power.
    They do, although with different ideas of what they want - see the Trump/Musk split.

    Likewise many Dems also view the enemies as internal - internal within their own party and internal within their country.
    You cannot compare what the GOP are doing with the Dems. I'm sorry, you just cannot.

    What you say about the Dems can be said about 'many' in the political parties in other countries, including here. What the GOP are doing is orders of magnitude greater.
    The Dems casually allowed millions of illegal immigrants to pour in.

    Many might view that as treasonable action or at least as a deliberate attempt to wage a socioeconomic war against internal opponents.

    That leads to a feedback reaction and the MAGA response - which will also lead to a feedback reaction and the Dems turning more extreme and flouting normal practices.

    Where it all began we can debate, where it will all end we don't know but its unlikely to be a good place.
    One way in which the Dems encouraged MAGA:

    An alarming number of people employed as professional political strategists by the Democratic party do not seem to understand what “politics” actually means. If this sounds too cute to be true, think of it another way: if all of the professional political strategists employed by the Democratic party do understand what “politics” actually means, they are negligent and willing to do harmful things for short-term gain. Either way, it ain’t good.

    The most glaring manifestation of this in the current election cycle is the fact that Democrats across the country spent millions of dollars to boost the candidacies of right-wing Maga candidates in the Republican primaries, on the theory that those extremists would be easier to defeat in the general election.

    The Washington Post found that Democrats had spent close to $20m in eight states on ads meant to elevate the profile of far-right candidates and election deniers running for governorships and for Congress. A number of those candidates, like the maniacal Christian zealots Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and Darren Bailey in Illinois, did in fact win their primaries, setting up, in theory, easier races for the Democrats in those states to win, because, in theory, swing voters prefer not to vote for lunatics.

    A common objection to this strategy is, “What if one of those lunatics wins? And you helped him? Wouldn’t you feel stupid?” Sure. But that objection, reasonable as it is, accepts the underlying premise that the rightness or wrongness of spending millions of dollars to boost the support of dangerous religious fascists within one of America’s two main political parties comes down to whether or not those dangerous religious fascists win the 2022 elections. The Democratic strategists who engineered this will say: “They won’t win, so the strategy was sound.” And that is where their blinkered view of the nature of politics begins to show its true futility.

    Because – my god, it’s hard to believe – politics is more than the next election.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/03/the-democrats-are-purposely-boosting-far-right-republicans-this-will-backfire

    I suspect that the unwillingness of the Biden administration to bring Trump to justice was because they thought he would be easy to beat in 2024.

    And so we now have MAGA in control.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,159
    edited July 2
    From the past thread, I'm interested in what the actual tax impact of these people "fleeing London" will have. How much tax were they paying in the first place? Do they actually spend a significant proportion of their time in London?

    My lazy assumption is the kind of person with that level of immediate international mobility has they income protected from HMRC; indeed, that the reason they live in London in the first place is because they can avoid tax here, no property taxes etc etc.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,679
    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    F1: for some insane reason, Alpine are now considering axing Colapinto for Bottas.

    Make a car that's not slow.

    Bottas, unless he still has freedom to pursue a Cadillac seat, should refuse.

    In terrible news, Domenicali's meeting Starmer:
    https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/articles/c8d66203q1no

    If the PM's recent performance is anything to go by he'll compromise with Ed Miliband and throw F1 out of the country to reduce carbon emissions.

    Or give them the Isle of Man.
    Back in 1955 I was upbraided as a smart Alec by our geography master when I said that "Man" and "Wight" were the same thing (I had a dictionary, see)

    I was often being criticised for being such at school (and similar, like "know-it-all", and "too clever for own good") and oddly I took it as a compliment. Certainly it didn't deter me.

    It used to be said that other languages like phrases badmouthing people for being too intelligent was a peculiarly English phenomenon. This isn't quite true, but nevertheless it's a sinister trait, and maybe partly explains our excessively socialistic leanings.

    Or maybe people just don't like being made to feel stupid themselves. In which case, of course, they develop some knowledge and wit of their own.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,551
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting.

    But I think Mamdani will win anyway.
    Trading bet/value loser ?

    Agreed. The fact that Trump hates him is a selling point in NYC, not a weakness.
    I think Mamdani's policies - particularly rent control - are stupid.

    But I'd still back him over Cuomo or Adams.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,821

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Nice to see my local MP getting plenty of mentions in the media. Sir Stephen Timms has been MP for East Ham (in its various guises) since 1994 and is a very good constituency MP - I was slightly surprised he agreed to do another Parliament but that's the nature of the man. Whether, after this, he will want to do yet another Parliament is debatable and who Labour might find as his successor is another matter.

    We've been here many times before under both Labour and Conservative Governments with contentious legislation watered down or scrapped just before a vote. It reminds us governing coalitions are just that - this isn't North Korea - and sometimes the leadership reads the mood of the party badly.

    It "weakens" Starmer after a fashion - it reminds me a lot of Labour MPs are sitting on very small majorities (as are a lot of Conservative MPs too) and not wanting to obviously antagonise a segment of the electorate for whom there is wider sympathy seems good politics in the present.

    The problem, as always, is the future when it becomes the present. If there are to be no savings on welfare reform (or at least this part of it), where and how are the public finances are to be brought under some kind of control? Rises on income tax, NI and VAT ruled out again this morning by Pat McFadden, the John Reid de nos jours, so it'll be other taxes which will have to rise or other parts of Government (local?) which will take the hit.

    Significant and substantive welfare and social care changes remain elusive and the fundamental problem of dealing with an ageing society remains largely unresolved. It doesn't help when you get Badenoch-style exaggerations of the scale of the problem but the problem itself, multi-layered and nuanced as it is, remains in the "too difficult" tray and the poor can braces for another kicking.

    There are several problems for the government in all this, and it is all self-inflicted.

    The first is that the lack of engagement with MPs, and the silly games that have been played with concessions, means the government has now been exposed as having no backbone and no appetite to deliver “difficult” policy. If you pull the plug on pretty much the whole thing at the 11th hour, it isn’t edifying, and it shows you’ll crumble when the heat is on. They should never have taken it to the brink in the first place if they were afraid of following through with putting it to a vote.

    But the other thing it does is expose, once again, the exceptionally poor political tactics being played by Reeves and the Treasury. These were cuts generated to restore an exceptionally tight amount of fiscal headroom, and it feels like tax and spend policy, rather than having a vision or an end goal, is purely reactive now to the whims of parliament and any small economic shock or other indicator. This is an exceptionally short termist way of running government, it doesn’t bring MPs along with you, and I think the approach is quickly running out of road. The experiment failed, and Reeves should be out on her ear.
    This is all true. There is a recurring problem of identifying the right, long term approach to running government and parliament, especially when a lot of MPs are quite dim, and very few can comprehend both sides of the ledger at the same time.

    £5 billion is a trivial sum in terms of state TME, and I am sure hundreds of Labour back benchers told themselves that the rebellion was therefore trivial.

    Suppose the original provision took £5000 from 1 million recipients. In media and voter terms this is massive - the BBC can without effort find any number of worthy claimants who will starve in the gutter without it, and some of it may be true.

    But the same sum is also 1 million people paying £5000 more in tax. And this goes without mention.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,551

    On the discussion, yesterday, about A/C

    - opening the window at 30c+ does next to nothing.
    - Natural ventilation can help, but can’t go all the way.
    - Increasing numbers of deaths are associated with heatwaves.
    - The American movie style of air conditioning, the rattling, roaring box badly attached to your window, is ancient history.
    - Even a small amount of solar can run the A/C for a whole house.

    Errr why A/C when heat pumps exist?
  • eekeek Posts: 30,494

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    Trump and the GOP are making it very clear who they see the 'enemy' as being.

    It is not America's traditional geopolitical enemies, who actively work against the USA's best interests.

    It is the 'enemy' within. The people who do not agree with them; who look or act differently. The poor. Those with no voice or power.
    They do, although with different ideas of what they want - see the Trump/Musk split.

    Likewise many Dems also view the enemies as internal - internal within their own party and internal within their country.
    You cannot compare what the GOP are doing with the Dems. I'm sorry, you just cannot.

    What you say about the Dems can be said about 'many' in the political parties in other countries, including here. What the GOP are doing is orders of magnitude greater.
    The Dems casually allowed millions of illegal immigrants to pour in.

    Many might view that as treasonable action or at least as a deliberate attempt to wage a socioeconomic war against internal opponents.
    (Snip)
    And so did previous Rep administrations. The USA was, and is, built on immigration.
    Large parts of it's economic infrastructure (farms, hotels) are built on cheap labour provided by illegal immigration - to the extent that ICE have been told to focus on other places.. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/14/ice-raids-farms-hotels-email (Guardian link because it was the first one to hand)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,073
    Feels like it's about 5 degrees outside. It's actually around 14.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,821
    Eabhal said:

    From the past thread, I'm interested in what the actual tax impact of these people "fleeing London" will have. How much tax were they paying in the first place? Do they actually spend a significant proportion of their time in London?

    My lazy assumption is the kind of person with that level of immediate international mobility has they income protected from HMRC; indeed, that the reason they live in London in the first place is because they can avoid tax here, no property taxes etc etc.

    The answer can't be hidden for ever, at least in outline, as tax receipts category by category eventually go into the public domain. The effect would take some time to work through - no doubt the accountants among us will know what the time scale would be.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,494
    rcs1000 said:

    On the discussion, yesterday, about A/C

    - opening the window at 30c+ does next to nothing.
    - Natural ventilation can help, but can’t go all the way.
    - Increasing numbers of deaths are associated with heatwaves.
    - The American movie style of air conditioning, the rattling, roaring box badly attached to your window, is ancient history.
    - Even a small amount of solar can run the A/C for a whole house.

    Errr why A/C when heat pumps exist?
    isn't an air to air heat pump just air conditioning under a different name.

    And if you are trying to cool somewhere down you need air to air, you can use water and radiators to heat areas up..
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,130
    Fishing said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    F1: for some insane reason, Alpine are now considering axing Colapinto for Bottas.

    Make a car that's not slow.

    Bottas, unless he still has freedom to pursue a Cadillac seat, should refuse.

    In terrible news, Domenicali's meeting Starmer:
    https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/articles/c8d66203q1no

    If the PM's recent performance is anything to go by he'll compromise with Ed Miliband and throw F1 out of the country to reduce carbon emissions.

    Or give them the Isle of Man.
    Back in 1955 I was upbraided as a smart Alec by our geography master when I said that "Man" and "Wight" were the same thing (I had a dictionary, see)

    I was often being criticised for being such at school (and similar, like "know-it-all", and "too clever for own good") and oddly I took it as a compliment. Certainly it didn't deter me.

    It used to be said that other languages like phrases badmouthing people for being too intelligent was a peculiarly English phenomenon. This isn't quite true, but nevertheless it's a sinister trait, and maybe partly explains our excessively socialistic leanings.

    Or maybe people just don't like being made to feel stupid themselves. In which case, of course, they develop some knowledge and wit of their own.
    There's also the tradition of a playground beating for the kid who raises their arm in a class to give an answer. That didn't happen much at my school but it did at my brother's

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,414
    Eabhal said:

    From the past thread, I'm interested in what the actual tax impact of these people "fleeing London" will have. How much tax were they paying in the first place? Do they actually spend a significant proportion of their time in London?

    My lazy assumption is the kind of person with that level of immediate international mobility has they income protected from HMRC; indeed, that the reason they live in London in the first place is because they can avoid tax here, no property taxes etc etc.

    Well we will know when we can compare and contrast the HMRC tax take for these individuals over the last year under this Labour government following the Autumn budget...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    Trump and the GOP are making it very clear who they see the 'enemy' as being.

    It is not America's traditional geopolitical enemies, who actively work against the USA's best interests.

    It is the 'enemy' within. The people who do not agree with them; who look or act differently. The poor. Those with no voice or power.
    They do, although with different ideas of what they want - see the Trump/Musk split.

    Likewise many Dems also view the enemies as internal - internal within their own party and internal within their country.
    You cannot compare what the GOP are doing with the Dems. I'm sorry, you just cannot.

    What you say about the Dems can be said about 'many' in the political parties in other countries, including here. What the GOP are doing is orders of magnitude greater.
    The Dems casually allowed millions of illegal immigrants to pour in.

    Many might view that as treasonable action or at least as a deliberate attempt to wage a socioeconomic war against internal opponents.
    (Snip)
    And so did previous Rep administrations. The USA was, and is, built on immigration.
    That's exactly the sort of unempathetic glibness that drives support to MAGA.

    Telling people they've got to accept illegal immigration because their own ancestors migrated legally two centuries earlier is not going to get you support.

    Instead it suggests you're not on the side of those 'little people' negatively affected by illegal immigration - so why should they worry about your concerns about Trump ? Perhaps the people who Trump regards as enemies might also be the enemies of the 'little people'.

    And yes, previous GOP administrations did tolerate too much illegal immigration.

    And that's what allowed Trump to run against the GOP establishment.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,079
    Ooops:

    "Issues at an electrical substation which caused a fire that resulted in Heathrow Airport closing were first detected seven years ago but not fixed, a report has found.

    The National Energy System Operator (NESO) said moisture entering electrical components at the North Hyde substation caused the blaze at the site that supplies the UK's biggest airport with power.

    It revealed an elevated moisture reading had been first detected in July 2018, but that the issue went "unaddressed", with basic maintenance by National Grid cancelled."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly22eelnxjo

    Although even if this is the main cause, there will be other important causal factors...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,003

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    Trump and the GOP are making it very clear who they see the 'enemy' as being.

    It is not America's traditional geopolitical enemies, who actively work against the USA's best interests.

    It is the 'enemy' within. The people who do not agree with them; who look or act differently. The poor. Those with no voice or power.
    They do, although with different ideas of what they want - see the Trump/Musk split.

    Likewise many Dems also view the enemies as internal - internal within their own party and internal within their country.
    You cannot compare what the GOP are doing with the Dems. I'm sorry, you just cannot.

    What you say about the Dems can be said about 'many' in the political parties in other countries, including here. What the GOP are doing is orders of magnitude greater.
    The Dems casually allowed millions of illegal immigrants to pour in.

    Many might view that as treasonable action or at least as a deliberate attempt to wage a socioeconomic war against internal opponents.

    That leads to a feedback reaction and the MAGA response - which will also lead to a feedback reaction and the Dems turning more extreme and flouting normal practices.

    Where it all began we can debate, where it will all end we don't know but its unlikely to be a good place.
    One way in which the Dems encouraged MAGA:

    An alarming number of people employed as professional political strategists by the Democratic party do not seem to understand what “politics” actually means. If this sounds too cute to be true, think of it another way: if all of the professional political strategists employed by the Democratic party do understand what “politics” actually means, they are negligent and willing to do harmful things for short-term gain. Either way, it ain’t good.

    The most glaring manifestation of this in the current election cycle is the fact that Democrats across the country spent millions of dollars to boost the candidacies of right-wing Maga candidates in the Republican primaries, on the theory that those extremists would be easier to defeat in the general election.

    The Washington Post found that Democrats had spent close to $20m in eight states on ads meant to elevate the profile of far-right candidates and election deniers running for governorships and for Congress. A number of those candidates, like the maniacal Christian zealots Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and Darren Bailey in Illinois, did in fact win their primaries, setting up, in theory, easier races for the Democrats in those states to win, because, in theory, swing voters prefer not to vote for lunatics.

    A common objection to this strategy is, “What if one of those lunatics wins? And you helped him? Wouldn’t you feel stupid?” Sure. But that objection, reasonable as it is, accepts the underlying premise that the rightness or wrongness of spending millions of dollars to boost the support of dangerous religious fascists within one of America’s two main political parties comes down to whether or not those dangerous religious fascists win the 2022 elections. The Democratic strategists who engineered this will say: “They won’t win, so the strategy was sound.” And that is where their blinkered view of the nature of politics begins to show its true futility.

    Because – my god, it’s hard to believe – politics is more than the next election.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/03/the-democrats-are-purposely-boosting-far-right-republicans-this-will-backfire

    I suspect that the unwillingness of the Biden administration to bring Trump to justice was because they thought he would be easy to beat in 2024.

    And so we now have MAGA in control.
    Boosting people who you know to be dangerous, in the belief that they will damage your opponents, is one of the stupidest things you can do in politics. That, and land-grabbing for its own sake.

    Netanyahu is a case in point.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,581
    fitalass said:

    Daily Record - 'Nicola Sturgeon's husband Peter Murrell granted legal aid after he was charged with embezzlement.' - 'EXCLUSIVE: The Daily Record can reveal the taxpayer is set to pay the former SNP CEO's legal bills.'
    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeons-husband-peter-murrell-35482891

    I fail to see the issue here.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,079

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    Trump and the GOP are making it very clear who they see the 'enemy' as being.

    It is not America's traditional geopolitical enemies, who actively work against the USA's best interests.

    It is the 'enemy' within. The people who do not agree with them; who look or act differently. The poor. Those with no voice or power.
    They do, although with different ideas of what they want - see the Trump/Musk split.

    Likewise many Dems also view the enemies as internal - internal within their own party and internal within their country.
    You cannot compare what the GOP are doing with the Dems. I'm sorry, you just cannot.

    What you say about the Dems can be said about 'many' in the political parties in other countries, including here. What the GOP are doing is orders of magnitude greater.
    The Dems casually allowed millions of illegal immigrants to pour in.

    Many might view that as treasonable action or at least as a deliberate attempt to wage a socioeconomic war against internal opponents.
    (Snip)
    And so did previous Rep administrations. The USA was, and is, built on immigration.
    That's exactly the sort of unempathetic glibness that drives support to MAGA.

    Telling people they've got to accept illegal immigration because their own ancestors migrated legally two centuries earlier is not going to get you support.

    Instead it suggests you're not on the side of those 'little people' negatively affected by illegal immigration - so why should they worry about your concerns about Trump ? Perhaps the people who Trump regards as enemies might also be the enemies of the 'little people'.

    And yes, previous GOP administrations did tolerate too much illegal immigration.

    And that's what allowed Trump to run against the GOP establishment.
    You are really, really keen to blame anyone other than MAGA, aren't you?

    I suggest you are not on the side of decent, hard-working *legal* immigrants who are getting swept up in this mess - and that would be your attitude if similar shits came into power in this country.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,455
    Eabhal said:

    From the past thread, I'm interested in what the actual tax impact of these people "fleeing London" will have. How much tax were they paying in the first place? Do they actually spend a significant proportion of their time in London?

    My lazy assumption is the kind of person with that level of immediate international mobility has they income protected from HMRC; indeed, that the reason they live in London in the first place is because they can avoid tax here, no property taxes etc etc.

    What wishy washy liberals like you don't seem to comprehend is that these people pay lots of tax in many ways ,employ people , spend lots of cash which employs other people, etc. Affected liberal lefty twats with no cognitive ability to realise that cutting off your nose to spite your face is a stupid thing to do.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,710
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting.

    But I think Mamdani will win anyway.
    Trading bet/value loser ?

    Agreed. The fact that Trump hates him is a selling point in NYC, not a weakness.
    I think Mamdani's policies - particularly rent control - are stupid.

    But I'd still back him over Cuomo or Adams.
    Cuomo is surely dead meat. Had he won the nomination loyalty to the Democrats might have got him there but without that he has no chance. I mean, what sort of electorate would elect someone with such a reputation for sexually harassing women and who has faced a variety of criminal charges (albeit he was acquitted of them all)?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,455

    fitalass said:

    Daily Record - 'Nicola Sturgeon's husband Peter Murrell granted legal aid after he was charged with embezzlement.' - 'EXCLUSIVE: The Daily Record can reveal the taxpayer is set to pay the former SNP CEO's legal bills.'
    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeons-husband-peter-murrell-35482891

    I fail to see the issue here.
    Well for a start , many poor people struggle to get legal aid and some rich loser gets it no problem.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,819
    Andy_JS said:

    Feels like it's about 5 degrees outside. It's actually around 14.

    It is much cooler outside this morning but the brick built houses in which many of us live are essentially ovens built for the cold not for heat so the heat is trapped inside and Stodge Towers is still brutally hot inside this morning.

    I suspect the recent hot spell has been more akin to Leon's current knapping trip for many. We don't all like the heat - indeed, there's plenty of evidence protracted heat can be serious for the elderly and for those with respiratory problems.

    With climate change, however, summer heat in London and the South East is a fact of life and we live in dwellings supremely ill-suited to heat but very good for cold and with insulation the oven effect is intensified.

    We need to be building properties with regard to future climate and that means better protection against damp (it's going to get wetter) and better suited to prolonged heat. We also need to be thinking about how an increasingly older population is going to cope with long periods of extreme heat and the impact on services.

    Even in this short-lived hot spell we've seen infrastructure such as roads and rail start to be affected as well as, I believe, power supplies in local instances (our local Tesco's lost power and by the time I got there yesterday evening, all the fridges and freezers had bene emptied and the contactless payment system wasn't working).
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,060
    Eabhal said:

    From the past thread, I'm interested in what the actual tax impact of these people "fleeing London" will have. How much tax were they paying in the first place? Do they actually spend a significant proportion of their time in London?

    My lazy assumption is the kind of person with that level of immediate international mobility has they income protected from HMRC; indeed, that the reason they live in London in the first place is because they can avoid tax here, no property taxes etc etc.

    Why does anyone think that picking the pockets of a few billionaires which being deferential to them, solves any economic problem. These billionaires need well educated, trained, staff who are able to get to work/clients on time.

    It's all about transport links, health, education, and access to markets. That must be apparent from the last 14 years.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,385
    Eabhal said:

    From the past thread, I'm interested in what the actual tax impact of these people "fleeing London" will have. How much tax were they paying in the first place? Do they actually spend a significant proportion of their time in London?

    My lazy assumption is the kind of person with that level of immediate international mobility has they income protected from HMRC; indeed, that the reason they live in London in the first place is because they can avoid tax here, no property taxes etc etc.

    Think about it from the perspective of, for the sake of argument, 5,000 people who are multimillionaires (the type I’m dealing with who are worth mid tens of millions to billions) who leave London.

    Let’s assume they have structured their taxes so well they aren’t paying any personal tax on income, cap gains. Your thought process is that they aren’t paying taxes so no loss.

    These people buy, regularly, new expensive cars. Say just half of them pay £10k in VAT to underestimate, that’s £25m gone. Yes it’s small in terms of the tax take but how many nurses or teachers salaries is that?

    They aren’t obviously just buying cars each year. They are buying ordinary goods and luxury goods. Think of how much VAT 5000 very wealthy people spend in the shops of London each year.

    It’s not just the VAT, if you remove 5,000 customers from a focussed area of London there are certain shops that will close because they don’t have the custom to justify the rent, staff etc. so the UK loses, on top of the VAT, the corporate tax from those businesses and the income tax paid by the staff.

    These 5000 people also don’t need their cleaner anymore, they don’t need the gardener, they don’t need their London tax planner or solicitor and many other service personnel.

    I haven’t even bothered to go into property taxes lost as they buy and sell properties.

    Again, in the big picture these aren’t huge amounts of money in the big scheme of things but it’s all money that pays for things the country needs/uses.

    Whilst I started out from the basis that they have organised their finances so they don’t pay personal taxes, this just isn’t the case so you do lose those taxes but the worst thing isn’t just the taxes lost, it’s the fact that these people often control existing businesses and when they decide that the UK isn’t a wealth friendly environment and their senior employees are also finding it unfriendly, they move key parts of their business so the UK loses the jobs and the tax take.

    These people are also often investors in new business or creators and so, as they are leaving London they are less likely to place new businesses in the UK so we lose potential new industries and the tax takes.

    It’s not just rude oligarchs and obnoxious Middle Eastern princes, its business people who are a key part of the organism that is wealth creation and they are being removed for ideological not economic reasons.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,307
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    I'm sure Ireland will make up the difference.

    Why does the parasite country of the western world never receive any criticism ?

    Ditto Austria.
    Yes, I've been astounded for many years that Ireland never receives any criticism on here.
    LOL.

    In any even, it's close to irrelevant whataboutery. While it doesn't absolve them from quite justified criticism, Ireland's contribution, or lack of it, will make almost no difference to the outcome of the invasion.
    For the want of a horse, a kingdom was lost.

    Every little helps. I bet there are those in Ireland who know of a fair few undisclosed weapons stashes that were never put past use. Send them.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,514
    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    Europe is on its own.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,307
    boulay said:

    Eabhal said:

    From the past thread, I'm interested in what the actual tax impact of these people "fleeing London" will have. How much tax were they paying in the first place? Do they actually spend a significant proportion of their time in London?

    My lazy assumption is the kind of person with that level of immediate international mobility has they income protected from HMRC; indeed, that the reason they live in London in the first place is because they can avoid tax here, no property taxes etc etc.

    Think about it from the perspective of, for the sake of argument, 5,000 people who are multimillionaires (the type I’m dealing with who are worth mid tens of millions to billions) who leave London.

    Let’s assume they have structured their taxes so well they aren’t paying any personal tax on income, cap gains. Your thought process is that they aren’t paying taxes so no loss.

    These people buy, regularly, new expensive cars. Say just half of them pay £10k in VAT to underestimate, that’s £25m gone. Yes it’s small in terms of the tax take but how many nurses or teachers salaries is that?

    They aren’t obviously just buying cars each year. They are buying ordinary goods and luxury goods. Think of how much VAT 5000 very wealthy people spend in the shops of London each year.

    It’s not just the VAT, if you remove 5,000 customers from a focussed area of London there are certain shops that will close because they don’t have the custom to justify the rent, staff etc. so the UK loses, on top of the VAT, the corporate tax from those businesses and the income tax paid by the staff.

    These 5000 people also don’t need their cleaner anymore, they don’t need the gardener, they don’t need their London tax planner or solicitor and many other service personnel.

    I haven’t even bothered to go into property taxes lost as they buy and sell properties.

    Again, in the big picture these aren’t huge amounts of money in the big scheme of things but it’s all money that pays for things the country needs/uses.

    Whilst I started out from the basis that they have organised their finances so they don’t pay personal taxes, this just isn’t the case so you do lose those taxes but the worst thing isn’t just the taxes lost, it’s the fact that these people often control existing businesses and when they decide that the UK isn’t a wealth friendly environment and their senior employees are also finding it unfriendly, they move key parts of their business so the UK loses the jobs and the tax take.

    These people are also often investors in new business or creators and so, as they are leaving London they are less likely to place new businesses in the UK so we lose potential new industries and the tax takes.

    It’s not just rude oligarchs and obnoxious Middle Eastern princes, its business people who are a key part of the organism that is wealth creation and they are being removed for ideological not economic reasons.
    You aren't going to see a rude oligarch or obnoxious Middle Eastern prince on the ward of an NHS hospital. But you are going to feel their UK departure.

    If you want a world-beating NHS - welcome wealth.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,514

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    I'm sure Ireland will make up the difference.

    Why does the parasite country of the western world never receive any criticism ?

    Ditto Austria.
    The Finnish, and the Baltic States, have been quite scathing in their criticism of Ireland's neutrality since February 2022.

    Austria is in a slightly different situation, since Neutrality was written into their constitution as a condition for the country regaining its unity and independence after post-WWII occupation.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,079

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    Europe is on its own.
    Not quite. Canada and Australia have helped Ukraine a lot, as has Japan. Could they do more? Yes. But then, so could we.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,191
    edited July 2

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    I'm sure Ireland will make up the difference.

    Why does the parasite country of the western world never receive any criticism ?

    Ditto Austria.
    Yes, I've been astounded for many years that Ireland never receives any criticism on here.
    LOL.

    In any even, it's close to irrelevant whataboutery. While it doesn't absolve them from quite justified criticism, Ireland's contribution, or lack of it, will make almost no difference to the outcome of the invasion.
    For the want of a horse, a kingdom was lost.

    Every little helps. I bet there are those in Ireland who know of a fair few undisclosed weapons stashes that were never put past use. Send them.
    Are you saying they should dig up Shergar?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,044
    geoffw said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    There are hints, after an extremely difficult Spring, that the battlefield is starting to swing back Ukraine's way driven by their superior technology both in drones and western supplied equipment, and exhaustion on the part of the Russians. I wonder if Trump and his coterie of traitors has picked up on this and feel the need to reduce the pressure on their masters.
    The big Russian offensive, expected this year, has not materialised.
    otoh the Russians are pretty much always offensive

    Rocky IV tried to warn us.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,502

    The Tory Party are really desperate, plus these are the shittest prizes ever, from my latest email from CCHQ

    Dear xxxx,

    The Membership Referral Competition is now live!

    Kemi is calling on all Party members to help renew our Party and to recruit likeminded family, friends, and members of your community.

    [🎬 WATCH 🎬].

    Our members are the lifeblood of the Party. You all do so much - from helping to design policy, to fighting campaigns, to selecting and serving as elected representatives.

    And so, from today the competition goes live to sign up as many new members as you can in the coming months.

    By signing up members with your personal referral code, we can see who our strongest recruiters are, and you can win prizes for your amazing efforts.

    1st – Signed bottles of wine, from both Party Co-Chairmen and the Party Leader, a personal thank you letter from Kemi, and two free passes to this year’s Party Conference in Manchester.

    2nd – A signed bottle of wine from both Party Co-Chairmen and a personal thank you letter from them.

    3rd – A Party hamper full of Party products.

    And 4th place to 10th place will all win a £25 Party Shop voucher each.


    All you need to do is ask supporters you know to sign up to membership via our website at https://www.conservatives.com/join and ask them to use your Referral Code at the bottom of the joining page to tell us you have signed them up.

    Your Referral Code is: XXXXXX, we've also included it in the mailtolink on the first button in this email.

    Surely the main prize is a voting bloc in the next Conservative leadership election.

    And the one after that, most likely before the general election.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,079

    boulay said:

    Eabhal said:

    From the past thread, I'm interested in what the actual tax impact of these people "fleeing London" will have. How much tax were they paying in the first place? Do they actually spend a significant proportion of their time in London?

    My lazy assumption is the kind of person with that level of immediate international mobility has they income protected from HMRC; indeed, that the reason they live in London in the first place is because they can avoid tax here, no property taxes etc etc.

    Think about it from the perspective of, for the sake of argument, 5,000 people who are multimillionaires (the type I’m dealing with who are worth mid tens of millions to billions) who leave London.

    Let’s assume they have structured their taxes so well they aren’t paying any personal tax on income, cap gains. Your thought process is that they aren’t paying taxes so no loss.

    These people buy, regularly, new expensive cars. Say just half of them pay £10k in VAT to underestimate, that’s £25m gone. Yes it’s small in terms of the tax take but how many nurses or teachers salaries is that?

    They aren’t obviously just buying cars each year. They are buying ordinary goods and luxury goods. Think of how much VAT 5000 very wealthy people spend in the shops of London each year.

    It’s not just the VAT, if you remove 5,000 customers from a focussed area of London there are certain shops that will close because they don’t have the custom to justify the rent, staff etc. so the UK loses, on top of the VAT, the corporate tax from those businesses and the income tax paid by the staff.

    These 5000 people also don’t need their cleaner anymore, they don’t need the gardener, they don’t need their London tax planner or solicitor and many other service personnel.

    I haven’t even bothered to go into property taxes lost as they buy and sell properties.

    Again, in the big picture these aren’t huge amounts of money in the big scheme of things but it’s all money that pays for things the country needs/uses.

    Whilst I started out from the basis that they have organised their finances so they don’t pay personal taxes, this just isn’t the case so you do lose those taxes but the worst thing isn’t just the taxes lost, it’s the fact that these people often control existing businesses and when they decide that the UK isn’t a wealth friendly environment and their senior employees are also finding it unfriendly, they move key parts of their business so the UK loses the jobs and the tax take.

    These people are also often investors in new business or creators and so, as they are leaving London they are less likely to place new businesses in the UK so we lose potential new industries and the tax takes.

    It’s not just rude oligarchs and obnoxious Middle Eastern princes, its business people who are a key part of the organism that is wealth creation and they are being removed for ideological not economic reasons.
    You aren't going to see a rude oligarch or obnoxious Middle Eastern prince on the ward of an NHS hospital. But you are going to feel their UK departure.

    If you want a world-beating NHS - welcome wealth.
    I agree.

    But as ever, it is a compromise. We won't get that world-beating NHS if the 'wealth' don't pay any taxes.

    So it becomes a balance between having a tax level where the wealthy are attracted, and one where they actually help the economy. It's pointless having them if they don't help the economy.

    Where should that balance be set?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,307

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    I'm sure Ireland will make up the difference.

    Why does the parasite country of the western world never receive any criticism ?

    Ditto Austria.
    Yes, I've been astounded for many years that Ireland never receives any criticism on here.
    LOL.

    In any even, it's close to irrelevant whataboutery. While it doesn't absolve them from quite justified criticism, Ireland's contribution, or lack of it, will make almost no difference to the outcome of the invasion.
    For the want of a horse, a kingdom was lost.

    Every little helps. I bet there are those in Ireland who know of a fair few undisclosed weapons stashes that were never put past use. Send them.
    Are you saying they should dig up Shergar?
    Ukraine really needs a few White Walkers.

    An army of the undead would be quite handy. They could start with all those buried by the IRA whose bodies have never been found.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,366
    More in Common this week sees some MoE movement, Con and LD toward or at their lows with MiC

    1️⃣After a year in Government, our weekly voting intention finds Labour 5pts behind Reform UK, with Tories 5pts behind them in third

    ➡️ REF UK 29% (+2)
    🌹 LAB 24% (+1)
    🌳 CON 19% (-1)
    🔶 LIB DEM 12% (-2)
    🌍 GREEN 9% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (nc)

    N=2,532 | Dates: 27 - 30/6 | Change w 23/6
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,514
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    I'm sure Ireland will make up the difference.

    Why does the parasite country of the western world never receive any criticism ?

    Ditto Austria.
    Yes, I've been astounded for many years that Ireland never receives any criticism on here.
    LOL.

    In any even, it's close to irrelevant whataboutery. While it doesn't absolve them from quite justified criticism, Ireland's contribution, or lack of it, will make almost no difference to the outcome of the invasion.
    I've been impressed by how much Denmark has done to assist Ukraine.

    Denmark has a population of 5.9 million and a GDP of ~$400bn
    Ireland has a population of 5.1 million and a GDP of ~$550bn (albeit distorted by tax haven shenanigans)

    While Ireland matching Denmark's contribution would not, on its own, make a large difference, in combination with the Nordics and Baltics it would help to add up to a substantial amount.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,819
    boulay said:

    Eabhal said:

    From the past thread, I'm interested in what the actual tax impact of these people "fleeing London" will have. How much tax were they paying in the first place? Do they actually spend a significant proportion of their time in London?

    My lazy assumption is the kind of person with that level of immediate international mobility has they income protected from HMRC; indeed, that the reason they live in London in the first place is because they can avoid tax here, no property taxes etc etc.

    Think about it from the perspective of, for the sake of argument, 5,000 people who are multimillionaires (the type I’m dealing with who are worth mid tens of millions to billions) who leave London.

    Let’s assume they have structured their taxes so well they aren’t paying any personal tax on income, cap gains. Your thought process is that they aren’t paying taxes so no loss.

    These people buy, regularly, new expensive cars. Say just half of them pay £10k in VAT to underestimate, that’s £25m gone. Yes it’s small in terms of the tax take but how many nurses or teachers salaries is that?

    They aren’t obviously just buying cars each year. They are buying ordinary goods and luxury goods. Think of how much VAT 5000 very wealthy people spend in the shops of London each year.

    It’s not just the VAT, if you remove 5,000 customers from a focussed area of London there are certain shops that will close because they don’t have the custom to justify the rent, staff etc. so the UK loses, on top of the VAT, the corporate tax from those businesses and the income tax paid by the staff.

    These 5000 people also don’t need their cleaner anymore, they don’t need the gardener, they don’t need their London tax planner or solicitor and many other service personnel.

    I haven’t even bothered to go into property taxes lost as they buy and sell properties.

    Again, in the big picture these aren’t huge amounts of money in the big scheme of things but it’s all money that pays for things the country needs/uses.

    Whilst I started out from the basis that they have organised their finances so they don’t pay personal taxes, this just isn’t the case so you do lose those taxes but the worst thing isn’t just the taxes lost, it’s the fact that these people often control existing businesses and when they decide that the UK isn’t a wealth friendly environment and their senior employees are also finding it unfriendly, they move key parts of their business so the UK loses the jobs and the tax take.

    These people are also often investors in new business or creators and so, as they are leaving London they are less likely to place new businesses in the UK so we lose potential new industries and the tax takes.

    It’s not just rude oligarchs and obnoxious Middle Eastern princes, its business people who are a key part of the organism that is wealth creation and they are being removed for ideological not economic reasons.
    What you're saying in effect is economic and political policy should be predicated around the interests of the 5000 (feeding them so to speak) rather than the other 69,995,000 people in the UK (give or take)?

    I understand but if we reduce our economic and social policy simply to appeasing a very small number of very rich people, I can't help but feel we have a significant problem.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,060
    fitalass said:

    Daily Record - 'Nicola Sturgeon's husband Peter Murrell granted legal aid after he was charged with embezzlement.' - 'EXCLUSIVE: The Daily Record can reveal the taxpayer is set to pay the former SNP CEO's legal bills.'
    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeons-husband-peter-murrell-35482891

    Ahem ... Legal Aid can be partly recovered from the aided depending on assets and income. Met a very pleasant Legal Aid lawyer whose job it was to recover monies after the cases had been decided.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,551
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the discussion, yesterday, about A/C

    - opening the window at 30c+ does next to nothing.
    - Natural ventilation can help, but can’t go all the way.
    - Increasing numbers of deaths are associated with heatwaves.
    - The American movie style of air conditioning, the rattling, roaring box badly attached to your window, is ancient history.
    - Even a small amount of solar can run the A/C for a whole house.

    Errr why A/C when heat pumps exist?
    isn't an air to air heat pump just air conditioning under a different name.

    And if you are trying to cool somewhere down you need air to air, you can use water and radiators to heat areas up..
    They are *very* similar - both fundamentally working around the whole idea of a condensor circuit. However, traditional AC units are either on or off (and run off a thermostat). Modern efficient heat pumps have varable speed compressors, which means that they can slowly ramp up and down, and they can work at a low speed to just maintain a temperature. This makes them significantly more efficient.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,631

    boulay said:

    Eabhal said:

    From the past thread, I'm interested in what the actual tax impact of these people "fleeing London" will have. How much tax were they paying in the first place? Do they actually spend a significant proportion of their time in London?

    My lazy assumption is the kind of person with that level of immediate international mobility has they income protected from HMRC; indeed, that the reason they live in London in the first place is because they can avoid tax here, no property taxes etc etc.

    Think about it from the perspective of, for the sake of argument, 5,000 people who are multimillionaires (the type I’m dealing with who are worth mid tens of millions to billions) who leave London.

    Let’s assume they have structured their taxes so well they aren’t paying any personal tax on income, cap gains. Your thought process is that they aren’t paying taxes so no loss.

    These people buy, regularly, new expensive cars. Say just half of them pay £10k in VAT to underestimate, that’s £25m gone. Yes it’s small in terms of the tax take but how many nurses or teachers salaries is that?

    They aren’t obviously just buying cars each year. They are buying ordinary goods and luxury goods. Think of how much VAT 5000 very wealthy people spend in the shops of London each year.

    It’s not just the VAT, if you remove 5,000 customers from a focussed area of London there are certain shops that will close because they don’t have the custom to justify the rent, staff etc. so the UK loses, on top of the VAT, the corporate tax from those businesses and the income tax paid by the staff.

    These 5000 people also don’t need their cleaner anymore, they don’t need the gardener, they don’t need their London tax planner or solicitor and many other service personnel.

    I haven’t even bothered to go into property taxes lost as they buy and sell properties.

    Again, in the big picture these aren’t huge amounts of money in the big scheme of things but it’s all money that pays for things the country needs/uses.

    Whilst I started out from the basis that they have organised their finances so they don’t pay personal taxes, this just isn’t the case so you do lose those taxes but the worst thing isn’t just the taxes lost, it’s the fact that these people often control existing businesses and when they decide that the UK isn’t a wealth friendly environment and their senior employees are also finding it unfriendly, they move key parts of their business so the UK loses the jobs and the tax take.

    These people are also often investors in new business or creators and so, as they are leaving London they are less likely to place new businesses in the UK so we lose potential new industries and the tax takes.

    It’s not just rude oligarchs and obnoxious Middle Eastern princes, its business people who are a key part of the organism that is wealth creation and they are being removed for ideological not economic reasons.
    You aren't going to see a rude oligarch or obnoxious Middle Eastern prince on the ward of an NHS hospital. But you are going to feel their UK departure.

    If you want a world-beating NHS - welcome wealth.
    I agree.

    But as ever, it is a compromise. We won't get that world-beating NHS if the 'wealth' don't pay any taxes.

    So it becomes a balance between having a tax level where the wealthy are attracted, and one where they actually help the economy. It's pointless having them if they don't help the economy.

    Where should that balance be set?
    And the question is that if only VAT and Stamp Duty and the excise generated from normal economic activity is/should be enough then why are the rest of us paying all these other taxes on our meagre wealth?

    Wealth is fine and all but excessive inequality is not.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,631
    Ps I was unwell yesterday and had excellent treatment on the NHS. Blood tests and CT scan within 3 hours and results within 4. Discharged with medicine and back to work today. Can’t complain really, that level of service in the US would have cost thousands.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    Trump and the GOP are making it very clear who they see the 'enemy' as being.

    It is not America's traditional geopolitical enemies, who actively work against the USA's best interests.

    It is the 'enemy' within. The people who do not agree with them; who look or act differently. The poor. Those with no voice or power.
    They do, although with different ideas of what they want - see the Trump/Musk split.

    Likewise many Dems also view the enemies as internal - internal within their own party and internal within their country.
    You cannot compare what the GOP are doing with the Dems. I'm sorry, you just cannot.

    What you say about the Dems can be said about 'many' in the political parties in other countries, including here. What the GOP are doing is orders of magnitude greater.
    The Dems casually allowed millions of illegal immigrants to pour in.

    Many might view that as treasonable action or at least as a deliberate attempt to wage a socioeconomic war against internal opponents.
    (Snip)
    And so did previous Rep administrations. The USA was, and is, built on immigration.
    That's exactly the sort of unempathetic glibness that drives support to MAGA.

    Telling people they've got to accept illegal immigration because their own ancestors migrated legally two centuries earlier is not going to get you support.

    Instead it suggests you're not on the side of those 'little people' negatively affected by illegal immigration - so why should they worry about your concerns about Trump ? Perhaps the people who Trump regards as enemies might also be the enemies of the 'little people'.

    And yes, previous GOP administrations did tolerate too much illegal immigration.

    And that's what allowed Trump to run against the GOP establishment.
    You are really, really keen to blame anyone other than MAGA, aren't you?

    I suggest you are not on the side of decent, hard-working *legal* immigrants who are getting swept up in this mess - and that would be your attitude if similar shits came into power in this country.
    I'm trying to explain where support for MAGA comes from and that unempathetic glibness from centrist dads is self-defeating.

    Yet, sadly, you would rather scream waycisstttt than open your mind.

    And what I would like to have is competent centrist government in both the USA and UK.

    Unfortunately no party in either country is capable of providing that.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,420

    boulay said:

    Eabhal said:

    From the past thread, I'm interested in what the actual tax impact of these people "fleeing London" will have. How much tax were they paying in the first place? Do they actually spend a significant proportion of their time in London?

    My lazy assumption is the kind of person with that level of immediate international mobility has they income protected from HMRC; indeed, that the reason they live in London in the first place is because they can avoid tax here, no property taxes etc etc.

    Think about it from the perspective of, for the sake of argument, 5,000 people who are multimillionaires (the type I’m dealing with who are worth mid tens of millions to billions) who leave London.

    Let’s assume they have structured their taxes so well they aren’t paying any personal tax on income, cap gains. Your thought process is that they aren’t paying taxes so no loss.

    These people buy, regularly, new expensive cars. Say just half of them pay £10k in VAT to underestimate, that’s £25m gone. Yes it’s small in terms of the tax take but how many nurses or teachers salaries is that?

    They aren’t obviously just buying cars each year. They are buying ordinary goods and luxury goods. Think of how much VAT 5000 very wealthy people spend in the shops of London each year.

    It’s not just the VAT, if you remove 5,000 customers from a focussed area of London there are certain shops that will close because they don’t have the custom to justify the rent, staff etc. so the UK loses, on top of the VAT, the corporate tax from those businesses and the income tax paid by the staff.

    These 5000 people also don’t need their cleaner anymore, they don’t need the gardener, they don’t need their London tax planner or solicitor and many other service personnel.

    I haven’t even bothered to go into property taxes lost as they buy and sell properties.

    Again, in the big picture these aren’t huge amounts of money in the big scheme of things but it’s all money that pays for things the country needs/uses.

    Whilst I started out from the basis that they have organised their finances so they don’t pay personal taxes, this just isn’t the case so you do lose those taxes but the worst thing isn’t just the taxes lost, it’s the fact that these people often control existing businesses and when they decide that the UK isn’t a wealth friendly environment and their senior employees are also finding it unfriendly, they move key parts of their business so the UK loses the jobs and the tax take.

    These people are also often investors in new business or creators and so, as they are leaving London they are less likely to place new businesses in the UK so we lose potential new industries and the tax takes.

    It’s not just rude oligarchs and obnoxious Middle Eastern princes, its business people who are a key part of the organism that is wealth creation and they are being removed for ideological not economic reasons.
    You aren't going to see a rude oligarch or obnoxious Middle Eastern prince on the ward of an NHS hospital. But you are going to feel their UK departure.

    If you want a world-beating NHS - welcome wealth.
    You’ll need alot of minimum wage care workers to plug that gap.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,679
    edited July 2
    geoffw said:

    Fishing said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    F1: for some insane reason, Alpine are now considering axing Colapinto for Bottas.

    Make a car that's not slow.

    Bottas, unless he still has freedom to pursue a Cadillac seat, should refuse.

    In terrible news, Domenicali's meeting Starmer:
    https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/articles/c8d66203q1no

    If the PM's recent performance is anything to go by he'll compromise with Ed Miliband and throw F1 out of the country to reduce carbon emissions.

    Or give them the Isle of Man.
    Back in 1955 I was upbraided as a smart Alec by our geography master when I said that "Man" and "Wight" were the same thing (I had a dictionary, see)

    I was often being criticised for being such at school (and similar, like "know-it-all", and "too clever for own good") and oddly I took it as a compliment. Certainly it didn't deter me.

    It used to be said that other languages like phrases badmouthing people for being too intelligent was a peculiarly English phenomenon. This isn't quite true, but nevertheless it's a sinister trait, and maybe partly explains our excessively socialistic leanings.

    Or maybe people just don't like being made to feel stupid themselves. In which case, of course, they develop some knowledge and wit of their own.
    There's also the tradition of a playground beating for the kid who raises their arm in a class to give an answer. That didn't happen much at my school but it did at my brother's

    I can see John Prescott, John McDonnell or Joe Stalin leading those mobs at their respective schools (assuming Prescott wasn't playing truant of course).

    Oddly I can't see Mrs Thatcher, Nigel Lawson or Javier Milei doing so.

    But maybe that's just me.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,385
    edited July 2
    stodge said:

    boulay said:

    Eabhal said:

    From the past thread, I'm interested in what the actual tax impact of these people "fleeing London" will have. How much tax were they paying in the first place? Do they actually spend a significant proportion of their time in London?

    My lazy assumption is the kind of person with that level of immediate international mobility has they income protected from HMRC; indeed, that the reason they live in London in the first place is because they can avoid tax here, no property taxes etc etc.

    Think about it from the perspective of, for the sake of argument, 5,000 people who are multimillionaires (the type I’m dealing with who are worth mid tens of millions to billions) who leave London.

    Let’s assume they have structured their taxes so well they aren’t paying any personal tax on income, cap gains. Your thought process is that they aren’t paying taxes so no loss.

    These people buy, regularly, new expensive cars. Say just half of them pay £10k in VAT to underestimate, that’s £25m gone. Yes it’s small in terms of the tax take but how many nurses or teachers salaries is that?

    They aren’t obviously just buying cars each year. They are buying ordinary goods and luxury goods. Think of how much VAT 5000 very wealthy people spend in the shops of London each year.

    It’s not just the VAT, if you remove 5,000 customers from a focussed area of London there are certain shops that will close because they don’t have the custom to justify the rent, staff etc. so the UK loses, on top of the VAT, the corporate tax from those businesses and the income tax paid by the staff.

    These 5000 people also don’t need their cleaner anymore, they don’t need the gardener, they don’t need their London tax planner or solicitor and many other service personnel.

    I haven’t even bothered to go into property taxes lost as they buy and sell properties.

    Again, in the big picture these aren’t huge amounts of money in the big scheme of things but it’s all money that pays for things the country needs/uses.

    Whilst I started out from the basis that they have organised their finances so they don’t pay personal taxes, this just isn’t the case so you do lose those taxes but the worst thing isn’t just the taxes lost, it’s the fact that these people often control existing businesses and when they decide that the UK isn’t a wealth friendly environment and their senior employees are also finding it unfriendly, they move key parts of their business so the UK loses the jobs and the tax take.

    These people are also often investors in new business or creators and so, as they are leaving London they are less likely to place new businesses in the UK so we lose potential new industries and the tax takes.

    It’s not just rude oligarchs and obnoxious Middle Eastern princes, its business people who are a key part of the organism that is wealth creation and they are being removed for ideological not economic reasons.
    What you're saying in effect is economic and political policy should be predicated around the interests of the 5000 (feeding them so to speak) rather than the other 69,995,000 people in the UK (give or take)?

    I understand but if we reduce our economic and social policy simply to appeasing a very small number of very rich people, I can't help but feel we have a significant problem.
    I’m not saying that at all.

    There is absolutely no loss to greater UK society if the UK was to introduce a special tax rate that benefitted and attracted the world’s wealthy.

    If the UK set a specialised rate of income tax and zero CGT and IHT for those with a certain level of wealth and minimum levels of tax paid under this system you would bring in people who would not be here otherwise, and therefore paying Zero tax, and they would be now paying tax - a low percentage but still large amounts in £ terms.

    As I wrote, these people, who were not living here before but have now been attracted in would be spending, employing and frankly using next to nothing from the state - private medical and education for example.

    So you get a net increase in tax take for zero real cost.

    The only real argument against it is envy. They are not competing against you in the race for Knightsbridge and Mayfair houses, places at your local comprehensive, in the queue for NHS ops or making you wait longer for your Ferrari.

    They are bringing in tax - and they might just bring in new businesses too which is even more important.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,631

    Nigelb said:

    The day after lifting sanctions on some Russian banks.

    White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles...
    https://x.com/nickschifrin/status/1940158711772979533

    Trump and the GOP are making it very clear who they see the 'enemy' as being.

    It is not America's traditional geopolitical enemies, who actively work against the USA's best interests.

    It is the 'enemy' within. The people who do not agree with them; who look or act differently. The poor. Those with no voice or power.
    They do, although with different ideas of what they want - see the Trump/Musk split.

    Likewise many Dems also view the enemies as internal - internal within their own party and internal within their country.
    You cannot compare what the GOP are doing with the Dems. I'm sorry, you just cannot.

    What you say about the Dems can be said about 'many' in the political parties in other countries, including here. What the GOP are doing is orders of magnitude greater.
    The Dems casually allowed millions of illegal immigrants to pour in.

    Many might view that as treasonable action or at least as a deliberate attempt to wage a socioeconomic war against internal opponents.
    (Snip)
    And so did previous Rep administrations. The USA was, and is, built on immigration.
    That's exactly the sort of unempathetic glibness that drives support to MAGA.

    Telling people they've got to accept illegal immigration because their own ancestors migrated legally two centuries earlier is not going to get you support.

    Instead it suggests you're not on the side of those 'little people' negatively affected by illegal immigration - so why should they worry about your concerns about Trump ? Perhaps the people who Trump regards as enemies might also be the enemies of the 'little people'.

    And yes, previous GOP administrations did tolerate too much illegal immigration.

    And that's what allowed Trump to run against the GOP establishment.
    You are really, really keen to blame anyone other than MAGA, aren't you?

    I suggest you are not on the side of decent, hard-working *legal* immigrants who are getting swept up in this mess - and that would be your attitude if similar shits came into power in this country.
    I'm trying to explain where support for MAGA comes from and that unempathetic glibness from centrist dads is self-defeating.

    Yet, sadly, you would rather scream waycisstttt than open your mind.

    And what I would like to have is competent centrist government in both the USA and UK.

    Unfortunately no party in either country is capable of providing that.
    You can understand where MAGA support comes from while still criticising it. In fact most of the criticism from “centrist dads” goes towards MAGA politicians who shamelessly lurch from one position to a completely contradictory one depending on what Daddy Trump says. The polls suggest that Trump’s policies do not enjoy majority support in the US so it’s not really a silent majority thing.

    I note that the “Big Beautiful Bill” delays the painful provisions until 2028 so that the Democrats get the blame if they win then. That’s good politics but pretty shameless. Nobody is interested in good governance.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,214
    Battlebus said:

    fitalass said:

    Daily Record - 'Nicola Sturgeon's husband Peter Murrell granted legal aid after he was charged with embezzlement.' - 'EXCLUSIVE: The Daily Record can reveal the taxpayer is set to pay the former SNP CEO's legal bills.'
    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeons-husband-peter-murrell-35482891

    Ahem ... Legal Aid can be partly recovered from the aided depending on assets and income. Met a very pleasant Legal Aid lawyer whose job it was to recover monies after the cases had been decided.
    Being prosecuted can be expensive even if you're found not guilty, this has been the case for a long time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,446
    Given Silwa polls less than 20% hard to see anyone but Cuomo running as an Independent defeating Mandani
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,073
    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Feels like it's about 5 degrees outside. It's actually around 14.

    It is much cooler outside this morning but the brick built houses in which many of us live are essentially ovens built for the cold not for heat so the heat is trapped inside and Stodge Towers is still brutally hot inside this morning.

    I suspect the recent hot spell has been more akin to Leon's current knapping trip for many. We don't all like the heat - indeed, there's plenty of evidence protracted heat can be serious for the elderly and for those with respiratory problems.

    With climate change, however, summer heat in London and the South East is a fact of life and we live in dwellings supremely ill-suited to heat but very good for cold and with insulation the oven effect is intensified.

    We need to be building properties with regard to future climate and that means better protection against damp (it's going to get wetter) and better suited to prolonged heat. We also need to be thinking about how an increasingly older population is going to cope with long periods of extreme heat and the impact on services.

    Even in this short-lived hot spell we've seen infrastructure such as roads and rail start to be affected as well as, I believe, power supplies in local instances (our local Tesco's lost power and by the time I got there yesterday evening, all the fridges and freezers had bene emptied and the contactless payment system wasn't working).
    One of the reasons I would never choose to live in the south-east is the warmer weather there in the summer especially at nighttime.
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