Whatever happened to Rebecca Long-Bailey? She was the future once. – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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It's the funniest exit poll scenario.Andy_JS said:
You keep telling us again and again that Labour are favourites to form or lead the next government. We get the message.algarkirk said:
I still think Labour are clear favourites to form or lead the next government.Leon said:
It’s also self fulfillingrottenborough said:One of the lessons of today is that campaigning on the vacuous term 'change' might win an election when the existing government is exhausted and shite but it leads to problems if no one inside the tent knows or agrees what the change is supposed to be.
As Lavery said today - people voted Lab in for "change" not for a "change for the worse".
But change could equally be seen as sorting out the deficit situation not helping the mildly disabled.
Starmer doesn't do the "vision thing" nor can he tell a nation a story of where they are going. So arguments over change will rage.
It really is a stunning mess.
One term.
As the government looks increasingly one-term - and it does - so its MPs will act accordingly. MPs destined to lose their seats will think “fuck it” and vote as they wish, morally, and with an eye to future careers. Those in marginals will vote to please their constituents not the government
Even higher loyalists will be thinking “what’s the point in helping Starmer, he’s crap and he’ll be gone soon”
So chaos is now inevitable. What a shitshow. And what a painful four years, now beckons, for the UK
I suspect the next government will be seriously Reform or seriously reform. It will have to be - majorly transformative. We cannot go on like this
Reform's hurdles in the way of government are formidable. Not the least are the Tories determination (unless they pact with them) to do well, which if achieved reduces Reform prospects.
And, as today's show demonstrates, government is hard. Will enough of the voting public, when it comes to it, think Reform have a front bench to keep the show on the rails? All politics is relative. Labour are awful, but can this disguise the fact that Reform are much worse at politics?0 -
The voters want the social provision.algarkirk said:
Social democracy is not ending, and shows no sign of doing so. Its ambitions may have to get more modest. Rather than social democracy declining, Reform are rapidly shifting towards it. Social democracy has ruled without change except for tinkering since 1945.rottenborough said:
It's deeply sad in a way. An era is passing. There is an increasing sense of a long withdrawing melancholy. Social democracy is ending at least for a good long time as, it also seems, is softish one nation high toryism.Leon said:
It’s also self fulfillingrottenborough said:One of the lessons of today is that campaigning on the vacuous term 'change' might win an election when the existing government is exhausted and shite but it leads to problems if no one inside the tent knows or agrees what the change is supposed to be.
As Lavery said today - people voted Lab in for "change" not for a "change for the worse".
But change could equally be seen as sorting out the deficit situation not helping the mildly disabled.
Starmer doesn't do the "vision thing" nor can he tell a nation a story of where they are going. So arguments over change will rage.
It really is a stunning mess.
One term.
As the government looks increasingly one-term - and it does - so its MPs will act accordingly. MPs destined to lose their seats will think “fuck it” and vote as they wish, morally, and with an eye to future careers. Those in marginals will vote to please their constituents not the government
Even higher loyalists will be thinking “what’s the point in helping Starmer, he’s crap and he’ll be gone soon”
So chaos is now inevitable. What a shitshow. And what a painful four years, now beckons, for the UK
I suspect the next government will be seriously Reform or seriously reform. It will have to be - majorly transformative. We cannot go on like this
I have no idea what will replace it but I am extremely trepidatious.
Only Reform show any sign of being against it. But in fact they won't be.
Ask a simple question: What would Reform have to do in government to keep the voters of Clacton voting for them?
And another: Do the voters of Clacton want the basic elements of social democracy kept - welfare state, safety net, pensions, NHS, free education to 18?
It follows, as night follows day, that whatever they say, Reform will preserve the expensive basics of the social democrat deal.
The democracy, human rights… maybe those are expendable.0 -
I think on a site devoted to politcal predictions it's worth saying however, not least because it's far from universally held despite (to me) appearing by some way the most likely outcome from where we are now.Andy_JS said:
You keep telling us again and again that Labour are favourites to form or lead the next government. We get the message.algarkirk said:
I still think Labour are clear favourites to form or lead the next government.Leon said:
It’s also self fulfillingrottenborough said:One of the lessons of today is that campaigning on the vacuous term 'change' might win an election when the existing government is exhausted and shite but it leads to problems if no one inside the tent knows or agrees what the change is supposed to be.
As Lavery said today - people voted Lab in for "change" not for a "change for the worse".
But change could equally be seen as sorting out the deficit situation not helping the mildly disabled.
Starmer doesn't do the "vision thing" nor can he tell a nation a story of where they are going. So arguments over change will rage.
It really is a stunning mess.
One term.
As the government looks increasingly one-term - and it does - so its MPs will act accordingly. MPs destined to lose their seats will think “fuck it” and vote as they wish, morally, and with an eye to future careers. Those in marginals will vote to please their constituents not the government
Even higher loyalists will be thinking “what’s the point in helping Starmer, he’s crap and he’ll be gone soon”
So chaos is now inevitable. What a shitshow. And what a painful four years, now beckons, for the UK
I suspect the next government will be seriously Reform or seriously reform. It will have to be - majorly transformative. We cannot go on like this
Reform's hurdles in the way of government are formidable. Not the least are the Tories determination (unless they pact with them) to do well, which if achieved reduces Reform prospects.
And, as today's show demonstrates, government is hard. Will enough of the voting public, when it comes to it, think Reform have a front bench to keep the show on the rails? All politics is relative. Labour are awful, but can this disguise the fact that Reform are much worse at politics?3 -
The idea that Farage could run an effective whipping operation and keep his backbenchers in line is laughable given this is the bloke who falls out with just about anyone. And the reality is the electorate still fear Farage more than dislike this government. Trump is a lesson having the populist right in power would be a utter s**tshow.stodge said:
I think that's a huge conclusion to reach after barely a year in Government. To an extent, he's had Blair's first year but without the economic legacy. Blair had problems with welfare reform in his first year - he also had problems with "gifts" from outsiders but lessons were learned and presentation was improved and he had in Hague and the Tories an awful Opposition who, apart from one brief moment during the 2000 fuel crisis, never posed a serious challenge.rottenborough said:One of the lessons of today is that campaigning on the vacuous term 'change' might win an election when the existing government is exhausted and shite but it leads to problems if no one inside the tent knows or agrees what the change is supposed to be.
As Lavery said today - people voted Lab in for "change" not for a "change for the worse".
But change could equally be seen as sorting out the deficit situation not helping the mildly disabled.
Starmer doesn't do the "vision thing" nor can he tell a nation a story of where they are going. So arguments over change will rage.
It really is a stunning mess.
One term.
Starmer too has a divided opposition and Reform simply offer a different kind of "change" which is arguably equally incoherent and equally likely to fail.1 -
More than that - he doesn't have the membership vote.Foxy said:
Like I said. Rayner is good at politics.rottenborough said:Massive, if true.
Ailbhe Rea
@PronouncedAlva
·
7m
It was Angela Rayner who pushed for today's major U-turn to be made, when it became clear the govt was going to lose the vote.
Extraordinary that a govt with a working majority of 165 was on course to lose - and that it only stopped it two and a half hours before the vote
Remember that to win the leadership you need to understand and have the support of backbenchers in your own party. Rayner has that, Streeting does not. He is Billy Nomates.
I have no idea why he is 2nd favourite. He's very talented. Top communicator. Easily best in his party. Arguably he should be leader. But where's the vote?0 -
They don't even know what they voted for ..
what a shower2 -
WTF???
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
🚨 JUST IN: President Donald Trump confirms to Governor Ron DeSantis that the federal government will APPROVE Florida's request to use Florida National Guardsman as immigration judges0 -
Might be right. No wonder.you don't want to engage.Leon said:
Oh god, shut upalgarkirk said:
I still think Labour are clear favourites to form or lead the next government.Leon said:
It’s also self fulfillingrottenborough said:One of the lessons of today is that campaigning on the vacuous term 'change' might win an election when the existing government is exhausted and shite but it leads to problems if no one inside the tent knows or agrees what the change is supposed to be.
As Lavery said today - people voted Lab in for "change" not for a "change for the worse".
But change could equally be seen as sorting out the deficit situation not helping the mildly disabled.
Starmer doesn't do the "vision thing" nor can he tell a nation a story of where they are going. So arguments over change will rage.
It really is a stunning mess.
One term.
As the government looks increasingly one-term - and it does - so its MPs will act accordingly. MPs destined to lose their seats will think “fuck it” and vote as they wish, morally, and with an eye to future careers. Those in marginals will vote to please their constituents not the government
Even higher loyalists will be thinking “what’s the point in helping Starmer, he’s crap and he’ll be gone soon”
So chaos is now inevitable. What a shitshow. And what a painful four years, now beckons, for the UK
I suspect the next government will be seriously Reform or seriously reform. It will have to be - majorly transformative. We cannot go on like this
Reform's hurdles in the way of government are formidable. Not the least are the Tories determination (unless they pact with them) to do well, which if achieved reduces Reform prospects.
And, as today's show demonstrates, government is hard. Will enough of the voting public, when it comes to it, think Reform have a front bench to keep the show on the rails? All politics is relative. Labour are awful, but can this disguise the fact that Reform are much worse at politics?1 -
Imagine the ludicrous outcome, that Labour doesn't lose any voters from the last election, in the next one. That is still 33.7% which is less than nothing and in normal times would be a poor second. Of course, they will lose many voters due to a laughable performance, and not gain any. Not only that but their own social media is relentlessly focusing on Reform, as if they are the real opposition, whilst facing Kemi at the despatch box each week. Unless they can find a way to ban all opposition parties and demand the country turn to Juche, Labour will be lucky to be third, and even if they could do that I have my doubts.0
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Seems like the US Senate has passed the enabling bill... hope we have no US troops in Europe as soon as the Russian troops in Europe are gone.0
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Starmer could copy his rice eating technique.Foxy said:
Mamdani won by getting the young to vote. Labour should watch and learn.Scott_xP said:@zohrankmamdani.bsky.social
My statement on Donald Trump's threat to deport me and his praise for Eric Adams, who the President "helped out" of legal accountability.
https://bsky.app/profile/zohrankmamdani.bsky.social/post/3lswltxtm7223
https://bsky.app/profile/upshot.nytimes.com/post/3lsqy7ahius2c
https://x.com/endwokeness/status/19393776165924988610 -
Reform will have to team up with the Tories, I just can’t see them looking like they have the gravitas to form a government on their own. You can’t go from five inexperienced MPs to filling a cabinet. I think a deal will have to be done, unless Tory MPs defect en masse0
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I'm not sure how Trump is doing proves much other than that Trump is a deranged idiot.RandallFlagg said:
The idea that Farage could run an effective whipping operation and keep his backbenchers in line is laughable given this is the bloke who falls out with just about anyone. And the reality is the electorate still fear Farage more than dislike this government. Trump is a lesson having the populist right in power would be a utter s**tshow.stodge said:
I think that's a huge conclusion to reach after barely a year in Government. To an extent, he's had Blair's first year but without the economic legacy. Blair had problems with welfare reform in his first year - he also had problems with "gifts" from outsiders but lessons were learned and presentation was improved and he had in Hague and the Tories an awful Opposition who, apart from one brief moment during the 2000 fuel crisis, never posed a serious challenge.rottenborough said:One of the lessons of today is that campaigning on the vacuous term 'change' might win an election when the existing government is exhausted and shite but it leads to problems if no one inside the tent knows or agrees what the change is supposed to be.
As Lavery said today - people voted Lab in for "change" not for a "change for the worse".
But change could equally be seen as sorting out the deficit situation not helping the mildly disabled.
Starmer doesn't do the "vision thing" nor can he tell a nation a story of where they are going. So arguments over change will rage.
It really is a stunning mess.
One term.
Starmer too has a divided opposition and Reform simply offer a different kind of "change" which is arguably equally incoherent and equally likely to fail.
There are non-Trump populists elsewhere who could be regarded as doing better, if not to everyone's taste.
I think Farage would be closer to Boris than Trump in the manner of his failure. Lots of words but ultimately too lazy to fix anything.1 -
And by the time the next election comes around there will be a fair few failing Reform lead county councils to show how clueless and bad a Reform Government would be.RandallFlagg said:
The idea that Farage could run an effective whipping operation and keep his backbenchers in line is laughable given this is the bloke who falls out with just about anyone. And the reality is the electorate still fear Farage more than dislike this government. Trump is a lesson having the populist right in power would be a utter s**tshow.stodge said:
I think that's a huge conclusion to reach after barely a year in Government. To an extent, he's had Blair's first year but without the economic legacy. Blair had problems with welfare reform in his first year - he also had problems with "gifts" from outsiders but lessons were learned and presentation was improved and he had in Hague and the Tories an awful Opposition who, apart from one brief moment during the 2000 fuel crisis, never posed a serious challenge.rottenborough said:One of the lessons of today is that campaigning on the vacuous term 'change' might win an election when the existing government is exhausted and shite but it leads to problems if no one inside the tent knows or agrees what the change is supposed to be.
As Lavery said today - people voted Lab in for "change" not for a "change for the worse".
But change could equally be seen as sorting out the deficit situation not helping the mildly disabled.
Starmer doesn't do the "vision thing" nor can he tell a nation a story of where they are going. So arguments over change will rage.
It really is a stunning mess.
One term.
Starmer too has a divided opposition and Reform simply offer a different kind of "change" which is arguably equally incoherent and equally likely to fail.1 -
Many federal and state agencies have their own lawyers. Are these lawyers or randoms?rottenborough said:WTF???
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
🚨 JUST IN: President Donald Trump confirms to Governor Ron DeSantis that the federal government will APPROVE Florida's request to use Florida National Guardsman as immigration judges0 -
He's second favourite because lost of gamblers on politics vote on 'it should be him because he's best', not understanding that being best is only one of a number of factors leading to political success.rottenborough said:
More than that - he doesn't have the membership vote.Foxy said:
Like I said. Rayner is good at politics.rottenborough said:Massive, if true.
Ailbhe Rea
@PronouncedAlva
·
7m
It was Angela Rayner who pushed for today's major U-turn to be made, when it became clear the govt was going to lose the vote.
Extraordinary that a govt with a working majority of 165 was on course to lose - and that it only stopped it two and a half hours before the vote
Remember that to win the leadership you need to understand and have the support of backbenchers in your own party. Rayner has that, Streeting does not. He is Billy Nomates.
I have no idea why he is 2nd favourite. He's very talented. Top communicator. Easily best in his party. Arguably he should be leader. But where's the vote?2 -
My expectation that a Reform government will fail shambolically is based only on the empirical evidence that a Reform government will be a government and all governments fail shambolically. To think Reform will be significantly better than this lot seems very omptimistic; to think they will be worse than this lot seems very pessimistic. It will be shit. It may be differently shit.Flatlander said:
I'm not sure how Trump is doing proves much other than that Trump is a deranged idiot.RandallFlagg said:
The idea that Farage could run an effective whipping operation and keep his backbenchers in line is laughable given this is the bloke who falls out with just about anyone. And the reality is the electorate still fear Farage more than dislike this government. Trump is a lesson having the populist right in power would be a utter s**tshow.stodge said:
I think that's a huge conclusion to reach after barely a year in Government. To an extent, he's had Blair's first year but without the economic legacy. Blair had problems with welfare reform in his first year - he also had problems with "gifts" from outsiders but lessons were learned and presentation was improved and he had in Hague and the Tories an awful Opposition who, apart from one brief moment during the 2000 fuel crisis, never posed a serious challenge.rottenborough said:One of the lessons of today is that campaigning on the vacuous term 'change' might win an election when the existing government is exhausted and shite but it leads to problems if no one inside the tent knows or agrees what the change is supposed to be.
As Lavery said today - people voted Lab in for "change" not for a "change for the worse".
But change could equally be seen as sorting out the deficit situation not helping the mildly disabled.
Starmer doesn't do the "vision thing" nor can he tell a nation a story of where they are going. So arguments over change will rage.
It really is a stunning mess.
One term.
Starmer too has a divided opposition and Reform simply offer a different kind of "change" which is arguably equally incoherent and equally likely to fail.
There are non-Trump populists elsewhere who could be regarded as doing better, if not to everyone's taste.
I think Farage would be closer to Boris than Trump in the manner of his failure. Lots of words but ultimately too lazy to fix anything.
But as I said, I see a second Labour term approaching with dull and depressing inevitability.2 -
They need 326 MPs to win, regardless of gravitas.isam said:Reform will have to team up with the Tories, I just can’t see them looking like they have the gravitas to form a government on their own. You can’t go from five inexperienced MPs to filling a cabinet. I think a deal will have to be done, unless Tory MPs defect en masse
2 -
And gravitas is a trait not particularly widespread in the two major parties anyway. Who has gravitas on the current Labour or Tory front bench? I think you could count them on one hand, and that’s being very generous.Andy_JS said:
They need 326 MPs to win, regardless of gravitas.isam said:Reform will have to team up with the Tories, I just can’t see them looking like they have the gravitas to form a government on their own. You can’t go from five inexperienced MPs to filling a cabinet. I think a deal will have to be done, unless Tory MPs defect en masse
0 -
Goodness me. This is serious.
"Pilots suspended after another Air India flight struggles during takeoff hours after Ahmedabad crash
Pilots’ post-flight report failed to mention critical stall and ‘don’t sink’ warnings, official says"
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/air-india-pilots-suspension-boeing-777-stall-warning-b2780259.html1 -
Streeting is an interesting one. He was a relatively high profile head of the NUS who entered Parliament at just the wrong time to be a Labour politician. It must be difficult to spend the best years of your career kicking around in opposition. He spent a long time on the Treasury Select Committee where my opinion is that he could be very effective when he was really interested in a subject. He got promoted very rapidly to Health Secretary without much experience in more junior roles. Then and now I think he has a problem with coming across as grumpy and thin skinned when challenged on an issue that he cares about. I've heard him described as unsocial which might be a problem in winning over MPs in a leadership race. On the other hand he has a remarkable back story and is a very fluent communicator. If Starmer stays as PM for a decent innings then I think he'll be a much better candidate having been tempered by office.Cookie said:
He's second favourite because lost of gamblers on politics vote on 'it should be him because he's best', not understanding that being best is only one of a number of factors leading to political success.rottenborough said:
More than that - he doesn't have the membership vote.Foxy said:
Like I said. Rayner is good at politics.rottenborough said:Massive, if true.
Ailbhe Rea
@PronouncedAlva
·
7m
It was Angela Rayner who pushed for today's major U-turn to be made, when it became clear the govt was going to lose the vote.
Extraordinary that a govt with a working majority of 165 was on course to lose - and that it only stopped it two and a half hours before the vote
Remember that to win the leadership you need to understand and have the support of backbenchers in your own party. Rayner has that, Streeting does not. He is Billy Nomates.
I have no idea why he is 2nd favourite. He's very talented. Top communicator. Easily best in his party. Arguably he should be leader. But where's the vote?0 -
The problem for Labour is that while the rebels have a victory it will certainly be a pyrrhic one.
The message the markets will take away is that Labour have no budget discipline and this will lead to higher interest rates on our debt.
The budget then becomes a nightmare. I can't see any way that Reeves (or someone) else can square the circle without breaking one or more of their manifesto promises. And then the headlines will be budget betrayal.2 -
She's good at a small part of politics - she understands the internal dynamics and neuroses of the Labour Party. Like Prescott under Blair. But also like Prescott under Blair, she's utterly crap at anything else - she doesn't understand the other parties, calling them scum, and has no clue about anything necessary to be in government - economics, foreign affairs, social policy, etc., etc.Foxy said:
Like I said. Rayner is good at politics.rottenborough said:Massive, if true.
Ailbhe Rea
@PronouncedAlva
·
7m
It was Angela Rayner who pushed for today's major U-turn to be made, when it became clear the govt was going to lose the vote.
Extraordinary that a govt with a working majority of 165 was on course to lose - and that it only stopped it two and a half hours before the vote
Of course, Starmer is so totally clueless about any part of politics that even her bit of insight makes her necessary to this clown show of a government.
6 -
...and even less money to spend on anything which might ge erate some growth.GarethoftheVale2 said:The problem for Labour is that while the rebels have a victory it will certainly be a pyrrhic one.
The message the markets will take away is that Labour have no budget discipline and this will lead to higher interest rates on our debt.
The budget then becomes a nightmare. I can't see any way that Reeves (or someone) else can square the circle without breaking one or more of their manifesto promises. And then the headlines will be budget betrayal.
I think it was @kinabalu yesterday who said the only plan any government can have right now is to steet the very narrow fiscal path available and try to generate some growth (I apologise to him if I paraphrase incorrectly: the original was almost certainly better.) Well, this isn't that plan: it's the opposite.1 -
Razor thin majority in his seat though. What price would he be to retain it? Odds against I would have thoughtStereodog said:
Streeting is an interesting one. He was a relatively high profile head of the NUS who entered Parliament at just the wrong time to be a Labour politician. It must be difficult to spend the best years of your career kicking around in opposition. He spent a long time on the Treasury Select Committee where my opinion is that he could be very effective when he was really interested in a subject. He got promoted very rapidly to Health Secretary without much experience in more junior roles. Then and now I think he has a problem with coming across as grumpy and thin skinned when challenged on an issue that he cares about. I've heard him described as unsocial which might be a problem in winning over MPs in a leadership race. On the other hand he has a remarkable back story and is a very fluent communicator. If Starmer stays as PM for a decent innings then I think he'll be a much better candidate having been tempered by office.Cookie said:
He's second favourite because lost of gamblers on politics vote on 'it should be him because he's best', not understanding that being best is only one of a number of factors leading to political success.rottenborough said:
More than that - he doesn't have the membership vote.Foxy said:
Like I said. Rayner is good at politics.rottenborough said:Massive, if true.
Ailbhe Rea
@PronouncedAlva
·
7m
It was Angela Rayner who pushed for today's major U-turn to be made, when it became clear the govt was going to lose the vote.
Extraordinary that a govt with a working majority of 165 was on course to lose - and that it only stopped it two and a half hours before the vote
Remember that to win the leadership you need to understand and have the support of backbenchers in your own party. Rayner has that, Streeting does not. He is Billy Nomates.
I have no idea why he is 2nd favourite. He's very talented. Top communicator. Easily best in his party. Arguably he should be leader. But where's the vote?1 -
As lots of people outside the party seem to have a view, here's a Labour Party view on Rayner. We all love our Ange. She's fabulous. But we don't want her as leader - just as we'd never have wanted Prescott as leader. It would be bad for both her and the party. So I doubt it would happen.1
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https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/1940143354836394128
After the welfare climbdown, one Labour MP was heard saying: “I don’t understand why this means tax rises when it’s only a few billion pounds.”4 -
I don't see how somebody with a razor-thin majority when Labour are 35% in the polls (32ish % in actual votes) stays in their seat when Labour are polling 25%. Of course it's four years out and anything can happen between now and then.isam said:
Razor thin majority in his seat though. What price would he be to retain it? Odds against I would have thoughtStereodog said:
Streeting is an interesting one. He was a relatively high profile head of the NUS who entered Parliament at just the wrong time to be a Labour politician. It must be difficult to spend the best years of your career kicking around in opposition. He spent a long time on the Treasury Select Committee where my opinion is that he could be very effective when he was really interested in a subject. He got promoted very rapidly to Health Secretary without much experience in more junior roles. Then and now I think he has a problem with coming across as grumpy and thin skinned when challenged on an issue that he cares about. I've heard him described as unsocial which might be a problem in winning over MPs in a leadership race. On the other hand he has a remarkable back story and is a very fluent communicator. If Starmer stays as PM for a decent innings then I think he'll be a much better candidate having been tempered by office.Cookie said:
He's second favourite because lost of gamblers on politics vote on 'it should be him because he's best', not understanding that being best is only one of a number of factors leading to political success.rottenborough said:
More than that - he doesn't have the membership vote.Foxy said:
Like I said. Rayner is good at politics.rottenborough said:Massive, if true.
Ailbhe Rea
@PronouncedAlva
·
7m
It was Angela Rayner who pushed for today's major U-turn to be made, when it became clear the govt was going to lose the vote.
Extraordinary that a govt with a working majority of 165 was on course to lose - and that it only stopped it two and a half hours before the vote
Remember that to win the leadership you need to understand and have the support of backbenchers in your own party. Rayner has that, Streeting does not. He is Billy Nomates.
I have no idea why he is 2nd favourite. He's very talented. Top communicator. Easily best in his party. Arguably he should be leader. But where's the vote?0 -
Yes possibly although I think Labour were caught napping on that threat the last time. They'll probably pump more resources into his seat the next timeisam said:
Razor thin majority in his seat though. What price would he be to retain it? Odds against I would have thoughtStereodog said:
Streeting is an interesting one. He was a relatively high profile head of the NUS who entered Parliament at just the wrong time to be a Labour politician. It must be difficult to spend the best years of your career kicking around in opposition. He spent a long time on the Treasury Select Committee where my opinion is that he could be very effective when he was really interested in a subject. He got promoted very rapidly to Health Secretary without much experience in more junior roles. Then and now I think he has a problem with coming across as grumpy and thin skinned when challenged on an issue that he cares about. I've heard him described as unsocial which might be a problem in winning over MPs in a leadership race. On the other hand he has a remarkable back story and is a very fluent communicator. If Starmer stays as PM for a decent innings then I think he'll be a much better candidate having been tempered by office.Cookie said:
He's second favourite because lost of gamblers on politics vote on 'it should be him because he's best', not understanding that being best is only one of a number of factors leading to political success.rottenborough said:
More than that - he doesn't have the membership vote.Foxy said:
Like I said. Rayner is good at politics.rottenborough said:Massive, if true.
Ailbhe Rea
@PronouncedAlva
·
7m
It was Angela Rayner who pushed for today's major U-turn to be made, when it became clear the govt was going to lose the vote.
Extraordinary that a govt with a working majority of 165 was on course to lose - and that it only stopped it two and a half hours before the vote
Remember that to win the leadership you need to understand and have the support of backbenchers in your own party. Rayner has that, Streeting does not. He is Billy Nomates.
I have no idea why he is 2nd favourite. He's very talented. Top communicator. Easily best in his party. Arguably he should be leader. But where's the vote?1 -
I am contractually obliged to mention the Iain M Banks spaceship "Very Little Gravitas Indeed" at this point. It's a tic. I'm sorry.numbertwelve said:
And gravitas is a trait not particularly widespread in the two major parties anyway. Who has gravitas on the current Labour or Tory front bench? I think you could count them on one hand, and that’s being very generous.Andy_JS said:
They need 326 MPs to win, regardless of gravitas.isam said:Reform will have to team up with the Tories, I just can’t see them looking like they have the gravitas to form a government on their own. You can’t go from five inexperienced MPs to filling a cabinet. I think a deal will have to be done, unless Tory MPs defect en masse
2 -
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
1h
Labour rebels in the Commons tonight very clear. The person who brokered the Starmer climb-down was Angela Rayner. “She was the person who finally convinced him he needed to give in” one told me.0 -
I believe both parties have a Credibility Problemviewcode said:
I am contractually obliged to mention the Iain M Banks spaceship "Very Little Gravitas Indeed" at this point. It's a tic. I'm sorry.numbertwelve said:
And gravitas is a trait not particularly widespread in the two major parties anyway. Who has gravitas on the current Labour or Tory front bench? I think you could count them on one hand, and that’s being very generous.Andy_JS said:
They need 326 MPs to win, regardless of gravitas.isam said:Reform will have to team up with the Tories, I just can’t see them looking like they have the gravitas to form a government on their own. You can’t go from five inexperienced MPs to filling a cabinet. I think a deal will have to be done, unless Tory MPs defect en masse
3 -
I'd love to know who that was.williamglenn said:https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/1940143354836394128
After the welfare climbdown, one Labour MP was heard saying: “I don’t understand why this means tax rises when it’s only a few billion pounds.”
There is a real blindness among the public at large in how much greater a billion is than a million. It's depressing but not surprising that this includes MPs.6 -
Yep, it's going to be Rayner vs Streeting after next year's local elections. Difficult to say who'll come out on top at the moment.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
1h
Labour rebels in the Commons tonight very clear. The person who brokered the Starmer climb-down was Angela Rayner. “She was the person who finally convinced him he needed to give in” one told me.0 -
Oh, so edgy. Totally radical. How can they lose?
Yet Nick Clegg said same thing ten or more years ago:
Zia Yusuf
@ZiaYusufUK
·
3h
Reform will fight for those who set their alarm clocks. ⏰
https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/19401286272509299591 -
X
Kevin Schofield@KevinASchofield
After the welfare climbdown, one Labour MP was heard saying: “I don’t understand why this means tax rises when it’s only a few billion pounds.”
https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/19401433548363941281 -
So that Tory £15bn "black hole" was no biggie?williamglenn said:https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/1940143354836394128
After the welfare climbdown, one Labour MP was heard saying: “I don’t understand why this means tax rises when it’s only a few billion pounds.”1 -
Something I've just found out:
The Dalai Lama is now about 90. When he dies, he gets reincarnated. My understanding is that some Tibetan monks work out who is born bang on when dies and that person becomes the new Dalai Lama (the belief being it's literally the same person). Presumably there are a few candidates checked and kept in reserve and some furtive negotiations with parents. Fascinating to think how this might unfurl in the 21st century. A spanner in the works is that since the last reincarnation, political control of Tibet is now in the hands of the CCP, who now insist that they have a monopoly on knowing which baby is a reincarnation of the Dalai Lama (a process which presumably, they don't believe in?) Fascinating to see how this pans out.1 -
If not the lady herself, obviously a graduate of the Diane Abbott School of Mathematical Economics.williamglenn said:https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/1940143354836394128
After the welfare climbdown, one Labour MP was heard saying: “I don’t understand why this means tax rises when it’s only a few billion pounds.”1 -
I thought that was quite good, actually. When did Nick Clegg say it? Rather pertinent to this argument whether it was prior to 2010 or 2015.rottenborough said:Oh, so edgy. Totally radical. How can they lose?
Yet Nick Clegg said same thing ten or more years ago:
Zia Yusuf
@ZiaYusufUK
·
3h
Reform will fight for those who set their alarm clocks. ⏰
https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/19401286272509299590 -
Is this another of Starmer's 'deals'?rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
1h
Labour rebels in the Commons tonight very clear. The person who brokered the Starmer climb-down was Angela Rayner. “She was the person who finally convinced him he needed to give in” one told me.0 -
I don't think this matters at all. You're not voting Reform because you're motivated by competence.eek said:
And by the time the next election comes around there will be a fair few failing Reform lead county councils to show how clueless and bad a Reform Government would be.RandallFlagg said:
The idea that Farage could run an effective whipping operation and keep his backbenchers in line is laughable given this is the bloke who falls out with just about anyone. And the reality is the electorate still fear Farage more than dislike this government. Trump is a lesson having the populist right in power would be a utter s**tshow.stodge said:
I think that's a huge conclusion to reach after barely a year in Government. To an extent, he's had Blair's first year but without the economic legacy. Blair had problems with welfare reform in his first year - he also had problems with "gifts" from outsiders but lessons were learned and presentation was improved and he had in Hague and the Tories an awful Opposition who, apart from one brief moment during the 2000 fuel crisis, never posed a serious challenge.rottenborough said:One of the lessons of today is that campaigning on the vacuous term 'change' might win an election when the existing government is exhausted and shite but it leads to problems if no one inside the tent knows or agrees what the change is supposed to be.
As Lavery said today - people voted Lab in for "change" not for a "change for the worse".
But change could equally be seen as sorting out the deficit situation not helping the mildly disabled.
Starmer doesn't do the "vision thing" nor can he tell a nation a story of where they are going. So arguments over change will rage.
It really is a stunning mess.
One term.
Starmer too has a divided opposition and Reform simply offer a different kind of "change" which is arguably equally incoherent and equally likely to fail.
I think a lot of it depends on circumstance - if we're in the midst of our biggest ever small boats season in the spring of 2029 and/or there has been a Truss-style financial crisis then yes, I can see it.2 -
If memory serves, it's a two-stage thing. The new Dalai Lama is recognised by the Panchat Lama, and the next Panchat Lama is appointed by the new Dalai Lama, and we go around again. It's like Catholicism: the Pope appoints the cardinals, the cardinals appoint the Pope.Cookie said:Something I've just found out:
The Dalai Lama is now about 90. When he dies, he gets reincarnated. My understanding is that some Tibetan monks work out who is born bang on when dies and that person becomes the new Dalai Lama (the belief being it's literally the same person). Presumably there are a few candidates checked and kept in reserve and some furtiveound negotiations with parents. Fascinating to think how this might unfurl in the 21st century. A spanner in the works is that since the last reincarnation, political control of Tibet is now in the hands of the CCP, who now insist that they have a monopoly on knowing which baby is a reincarnation of the Dalai Lama (a process which presumably, they don't believe in?) Fascinating to see how this pans out.1 -
It really requires some special pleading for Labour to have YET ANOTHER male leader.Andy_JS said:
Yep, it's going to be Rayner vs Streeting after next year's local elections. Difficult to say who'll come out on top at the moment.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
1h
Labour rebels in the Commons tonight very clear. The person who brokered the Starmer climb-down was Angela Rayner. “She was the person who finally convinced him he needed to give in” one told me.
Although, Rachel Reeves may have reset that particular clock. "Make us a cup of tea, luv, while us blokes sort out your mess..."0 -
I think the question is how many people are in the "don't really want to vote but can't let Reform in" camp.Eabhal said:
I don't think this matters at all. You're not voting Reform because you're motivated by competence.eek said:
And by the time the next election comes around there will be a fair few failing Reform lead county councils to show how clueless and bad a Reform Government would be.RandallFlagg said:
The idea that Farage could run an effective whipping operation and keep his backbenchers in line is laughable given this is the bloke who falls out with just about anyone. And the reality is the electorate still fear Farage more than dislike this government. Trump is a lesson having the populist right in power would be a utter s**tshow.stodge said:
I think that's a huge conclusion to reach after barely a year in Government. To an extent, he's had Blair's first year but without the economic legacy. Blair had problems with welfare reform in his first year - he also had problems with "gifts" from outsiders but lessons were learned and presentation was improved and he had in Hague and the Tories an awful Opposition who, apart from one brief moment during the 2000 fuel crisis, never posed a serious challenge.rottenborough said:One of the lessons of today is that campaigning on the vacuous term 'change' might win an election when the existing government is exhausted and shite but it leads to problems if no one inside the tent knows or agrees what the change is supposed to be.
As Lavery said today - people voted Lab in for "change" not for a "change for the worse".
But change could equally be seen as sorting out the deficit situation not helping the mildly disabled.
Starmer doesn't do the "vision thing" nor can he tell a nation a story of where they are going. So arguments over change will rage.
It really is a stunning mess.
One term.
Starmer too has a divided opposition and Reform simply offer a different kind of "change" which is arguably equally incoherent and equally likely to fail.
I think a lot of it depends on circumstance - if we're in the midst of our biggest ever small boats season in the spring of 2029 and/or there has been a Truss-style financial crisis then yes, I can see it.
A few competent local councils and a fair number of voters may give Reform the benefit of the doubt. Clown level incompetency and many of those voters will be making sure they vote.0 -
But then government spending is £1.3 trillion, and the deficit £140 billion. Compared to that, the saving really is a rounding error, and I think the expected market reaction is exaggerated as a result.Cookie said:
I'd love to know who that was.williamglenn said:https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/1940143354836394128
After the welfare climbdown, one Labour MP was heard saying: “I don’t understand why this means tax rises when it’s only a few billion pounds.”
There is a real blindness among the public at large in how much greater a billion is than a million. It's depressing but not surprising that this includes MPs.
I guess it sends a signal about fiscal discipline, but no analyst is really going to be surprised by this mess. All of this stuff is utterly dwarfed by rising health spending anyway.
0 -
If Starmer fell under a spinning lathe tomorrow - who would be leader?Northern_Al said:As lots of people outside the party seem to have a view, here's a Labour Party view on Rayner. We all love our Ange. She's fabulous. But we don't want her as leader - just as we'd never have wanted Prescott as leader. It would be bad for both her and the party. So I doubt it would happen.
Wes hasn't got the local party vote me thinks.
Burnham? But how?0 -
Looks like a 777 rather than a 787, but still seriously worrying.Andy_JS said:Goodness me. This is serious.
"Pilots suspended after another Air India flight struggles during takeoff hours after Ahmedabad crash
Pilots’ post-flight report failed to mention critical stall and ‘don’t sink’ warnings, official says"
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/air-india-pilots-suspension-boeing-777-stall-warning-b2780259.html0 -
He said something about ordinary people who were "alarm clock Britain" getting up in the dark iirc.Cookie said:
I thought that was quite good, actually. When did Nick Clegg say it? Rather pertinent to this argument whether it was prior to 2010 or 2015.rottenborough said:Oh, so edgy. Totally radical. How can they lose?
Yet Nick Clegg said same thing ten or more years ago:
Zia Yusuf
@ZiaYusufUK
·
3h
Reform will fight for those who set their alarm clocks. ⏰
https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/1940128627250929959
t'interweb seems to say dated 2011.
2 -
Take off during a thunderstorm, which might explain the incident, but not the lack of reporting.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Looks like a 777 rather than a 787, but still seriously worrying.Andy_JS said:Goodness me. This is serious.
"Pilots suspended after another Air India flight struggles during takeoff hours after Ahmedabad crash
Pilots’ post-flight report failed to mention critical stall and ‘don’t sink’ warnings, official says"
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/air-india-pilots-suspension-boeing-777-stall-warning-b2780259.html
Have Air India got a pilot problem?0 -
Unless Burnham returns as an MP it would be Rayner as polls of Labour members showrottenborough said:
If Starmer fell under a spinning lathe tomorrow - who would be leader?Northern_Al said:As lots of people outside the party seem to have a view, here's a Labour Party view on Rayner. We all love our Ange. She's fabulous. But we don't want her as leader - just as we'd never have wanted Prescott as leader. It would be bad for both her and the party. So I doubt it would happen.
Wes hasn't got the local party vote me thinks.
Burnham? But how?0 -
Is it not meant as a dig againt Kemi Badenoch?rottenborough said:Oh, so edgy. Totally radical. How can they lose?
Yet Nick Clegg said same thing ten or more years ago:
Zia Yusuf
@ZiaYusufUK
·
3h
Reform will fight for those who set their alarm clocks. ⏰
https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/19401286272509299590 -
Well it looks like Angela Rayner has launched her unofficial leadership campaign tonight among the PLP and the wider Labour party membership. Now we just wait to see how long Keir Starmer's premiership limps on before he loses the complete confidence of his own Cabinet and backbenchers and he throws in the towel and calls it a day.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
1h
Labour rebels in the Commons tonight very clear. The person who brokered the Starmer climb-down was Angela Rayner. “She was the person who finally convinced him he needed to give in” one told me.0 -
Trump says Israel has agreed terms for 60-day ceasefire, urges Hamas to accept deal2
-
Jaguar is one brand of JLR and the rest of the company have kept making and selling cars for the other brands. They paused Jaguar production because the model line up was stale, unprofitable and they needed to retool the plant for the new BEV GT thing. You can debate about whether this was wise although there wasn't really an alternative by this point because they had let the range decay into irrelevance. So the collapse in sales is because they are not even trying to sell cars, nothing to do with that promo video.Cookie said:
Is this nornal business practice - for a car company to stop making cars and have a rest?TimS said:
It’s true. They just stopped making any new cars. Having a rest.algarkirk said:
Is this a spoof or true? They did a sort of rebrand recently in pink which elicited some hilarity on PB. I decided on the spot to stick to the 12 year old Micra because I wanted some cred with the gang.MaxPB said:https://www.financialexpress.com/business/brandwagon-how-jaguars-rebranding-gamble-triggered-a-98-collapse-in-sales-3899142/
"For decades, Jaguar stood for a blend of British engineering, performance, and luxury, an identity that helped the brand build loyalty among customers who valued refinement and heritage. But in its attempt to reinvent itself for a new era, Jaguar now finds itself facing one of the most severe sales declines seen in the European automotive market. In April 2025, the company registered just 49 vehicles in Europe, a 97.5% drop from 1,961 units sold during the same month the previous year."
Have we done this yet?
I'm sure there were some other factors but this is absolutely hilarious. Go woke...
What the harrumphing gammons and neo-fascists in this discussion don't understand, despite having it explained to them multiple times, is that Jaguar's traditional markets NO LONGER EXIST AT A PROFITABLE SCALE. They already have very successful SUV brands and they aren't going to beat Porsche's engineering omnipotence and Qualität ohne Kompromisse philosophy in the sub Ferrari/Lambo/McLaren sports car market. So what's left if they want Jaguar to exist as a brand? Apparently, it's a BEV haut-couture Bentley competitor. The competition isn't quite as fierce in that segment so it makes a sort of sense I suppose.
The other alternative was just to give up and sell the brand to Geely or somebody which has some remorseless logic to it.2 -
Might be good for betting though.Northern_Al said:As lots of people outside the party seem to have a view, here's a Labour Party view on Rayner. We all love our Ange. She's fabulous. But we don't want her as leader - just as we'd never have wanted Prescott as leader. It would be bad for both her and the party. So I doubt it would happen.
0 -
Have you only just found this out?Cookie said:Something I've just found out:
The Dalai Lama is now about 90. When he dies, he gets reincarnated. My understanding is that some Tibetan monks work out who is born bang on when dies and that person becomes the new Dalai Lama (the belief being it's literally the same person). Presumably there are a few candidates checked and kept in reserve and some furtive negotiations with parents. Fascinating to think how this might unfurl in the 21st century. A spanner in the works is that since the last reincarnation, political control of Tibet is now in the hands of the CCP, who now insist that they have a monopoly on knowing which baby is a reincarnation of the Dalai Lama (a process which presumably, they don't believe in?) Fascinating to see how this pans out.
It is a little (actually quite a bit) more complicated than that.
The CCP have a form to request permission to reincarnate. Yes, really.
The DL will choose whether to reincarnate. And where. And when.
This is a choice of a living Buddha. It doesn't have to be in Tibet, or China. Or Earth.0 -
Burnham has no interest in returning to Westminster.rottenborough said:
If Starmer fell under a spinning lathe tomorrow - who would be leader?Northern_Al said:As lots of people outside the party seem to have a view, here's a Labour Party view on Rayner. We all love our Ange. She's fabulous. But we don't want her as leader - just as we'd never have wanted Prescott as leader. It would be bad for both her and the party. So I doubt it would happen.
Wes hasn't got the local party vote me thinks.
Burnham? But how?1 -
@Cookie
A far more detailed and accurate description of how the Dalai Lama is identified.
https://www.dalailama.com/the-dalai-lama/biography-and-daily-life/birth-to-exile
The BBC article today uses the word "soul". Aaaargh!
One concept all Buddhist sects are united in denying the existence of...1 -
Has anyone considered that some sort of pardon for Bibi might mean there is no need to prolong the war?bondegezou said:Israeli settlers on West Bank attack IDF: https://youtu.be/yb8mNsg4v7k
Maybe the settlers watched Glastonbury?
Oh, and Bibi's govt is trying to cancel his trial and impeach Arab MPs.0 -
Bank of England to redesign banknotes
Banknotes issued by the Bank of England are about to get their first major redesign in more than 50 years.
Notable historical figures, such as Sir Winston Churchill on the current fiver, have featured on these banknotes since 1970 but could be on the way out.
The public are being asked for their views on new themes, such as nature, innovation, or key events in history.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy4nn1d2vzxo
May the gods preserve us from no-marks wanting to make their little bit of history.3 -
Oh dear god, we know this is going to turn into culture war pitchforks at dawn. Kemi already has the tweets ready about it all going Woke.DecrepiterJohnL said:Bank of England to redesign banknotes
Banknotes issued by the Bank of England are about to get their first major redesign in more than 50 years.
Notable historical figures, such as Sir Winston Churchill on the current fiver, have featured on these banknotes since 1970 but could be on the way out.
The public are being asked for their views on new themes, such as nature, innovation, or key events in history.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy4nn1d2vzxo
May the gods preserve us from no-marks wanting to make their little bit of history.
My question is it necessary, I mean who uses cash anymore ;-)1 -
£5 ClarksonDecrepiterJohnL said:Bank of England to redesign banknotes
Banknotes issued by the Bank of England are about to get their first major redesign in more than 50 years.
Notable historical figures, such as Sir Winston Churchill on the current fiver, have featured on these banknotes since 1970 but could be on the way out.
The public are being asked for their views on new themes, such as nature, innovation, or key events in history.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy4nn1d2vzxo
May the gods preserve us from no-marks wanting to make their little bit of history.
£10 Diana
£20 Captain Tom
£50 a JCB
🇬🇧5 -
Oh dear, more trouble at mill....
This new amendment to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would end professional gambling in the US and hurt casual gamblers, too. You could pay more in tax than you won.
https://x.com/PhilGalfond/status/19401985384930103160 -
Not Jag?Dura_Ace said:
£5 ClarksonDecrepiterJohnL said:Bank of England to redesign banknotes
Banknotes issued by the Bank of England are about to get their first major redesign in more than 50 years.
Notable historical figures, such as Sir Winston Churchill on the current fiver, have featured on these banknotes since 1970 but could be on the way out.
The public are being asked for their views on new themes, such as nature, innovation, or key events in history.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy4nn1d2vzxo
May the gods preserve us from no-marks wanting to make their little bit of history.
£10 Diana
£20 Captain Tom
£50 a JCB
🇬🇧0 -
How would you symbolise the Brexit vote on a note?Dura_Ace said:
£5 ClarksonDecrepiterJohnL said:Bank of England to redesign banknotes
Banknotes issued by the Bank of England are about to get their first major redesign in more than 50 years.
Notable historical figures, such as Sir Winston Churchill on the current fiver, have featured on these banknotes since 1970 but could be on the way out.
The public are being asked for their views on new themes, such as nature, innovation, or key events in history.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy4nn1d2vzxo
May the gods preserve us from no-marks wanting to make their little bit of history.
£10 Diana
£20 Captain Tom
£50 a JCB
🇬🇧0 -
Barry, 63.MarqueeMark said:
How would you symbolise the Brexit vote on a note?Dura_Ace said:
£5 ClarksonDecrepiterJohnL said:Bank of England to redesign banknotes
Banknotes issued by the Bank of England are about to get their first major redesign in more than 50 years.
Notable historical figures, such as Sir Winston Churchill on the current fiver, have featured on these banknotes since 1970 but could be on the way out.
The public are being asked for their views on new themes, such as nature, innovation, or key events in history.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy4nn1d2vzxo
May the gods preserve us from no-marks wanting to make their little bit of history.
£10 Diana
£20 Captain Tom
£50 a JCB
🇬🇧
3 -
To be honest, that sums up England so well, stick him on £5, £10, £20, £50, make a special £100 .,..Dura_Ace said:
Barry, 63.MarqueeMark said:
How would you symbolise the Brexit vote on a note?Dura_Ace said:
£5 ClarksonDecrepiterJohnL said:Bank of England to redesign banknotes
Banknotes issued by the Bank of England are about to get their first major redesign in more than 50 years.
Notable historical figures, such as Sir Winston Churchill on the current fiver, have featured on these banknotes since 1970 but could be on the way out.
The public are being asked for their views on new themes, such as nature, innovation, or key events in history.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy4nn1d2vzxo
May the gods preserve us from no-marks wanting to make their little bit of history.
£10 Diana
£20 Captain Tom
£50 a JCB
🇬🇧1 -
US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a "30% or 35%" tariff on Japan if a deal between the two countries is not reached before a deadline next week.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgeqrd0e9j7o0 -
Next U-Turn incoming?
The home secretary is coming under increasing pressure to abandon plans to ban Palestine Action, as UN experts and hundreds of lawyers warned that proscribing the group would conflate protest and terrorism.
In two separate letters to Yvette Cooper, the Network for Police Monitoring (Netpol) lawyers’ group and the Haldane Society of Socialist Lawyers said that proscribing the group would set a dangerous precedent.
Additionally, several UN special rapporteurs, including those for protecting human rights while countering terrorism and for promoting freedom of expression, said they had contacted the UK government to say that “acts of protest that damage property, but are not intended to kill or injure people, should not be treated as terrorism”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/01/yvette-cooper-plan-ban-palestine-action-un-experts-lawyers1 -
Maybe Trump could pardon him?DecrepiterJohnL said:
Has anyone considered that some sort of pardon for Bibi might mean there is no need to prolong the war?bondegezou said:Israeli settlers on West Bank attack IDF: https://youtu.be/yb8mNsg4v7k
Maybe the settlers watched Glastonbury?
Oh, and Bibi's govt is trying to cancel his trial and impeach Arab MPs.1 -
Which party will fight for those who use their mobile phones to wake themselves up in the morning?rottenborough said:Oh, so edgy. Totally radical. How can they lose?
Yet Nick Clegg said same thing ten or more years ago:
Zia Yusuf
@ZiaYusufUK
·
3h
Reform will fight for those who set their alarm clocks. ⏰
https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/19401286272509299591 -
Source?malcolmg said:
It is pathetic , any tom dick or Harry can get PIP, benefits etc etc. An absolute shambles. how can we hav e26% disabled versus Europe which is less than a quarter of that. Freeloaders is the answerIanB2 said:
Certainly it seems that the well-meaning desire to have mental health issues treated with equivalence to physical ones is a big reason why we’re now in this financial mess. For while there are undoubtedly many people with serious mental health issues meriting treatment and support, it is also easier to fake a mental health condition, as the many videos on social media telling people how to complete their PiP claims clearly indicate, and without any face to face assessment it’s obvious that people who shouldn’t be getting the benefit are slipping through.MikeL said:It's very clear - once you start handing money out to people you can't stop.
Article on the BBC last week said in many (most?) countries, disabled people get their additional costs paid for, ie:
- if they need equipment, Govt buys the equipment
- if they need taxis, Govt pays the taxi company
etc etc.
That would change the whole dynamic and dramatically reduce amount paid out re mental health.1 -
It depends whether Gaza is still as salient next time around, and whether the same candidate (or another with equal determination and social media skills) stands again. None of the mainstream parties in his seat will get anywhere close.isam said:
Razor thin majority in his seat though. What price would he be to retain it? Odds against I would have thoughtStereodog said:
Streeting is an interesting one. He was a relatively high profile head of the NUS who entered Parliament at just the wrong time to be a Labour politician. It must be difficult to spend the best years of your career kicking around in opposition. He spent a long time on the Treasury Select Committee where my opinion is that he could be very effective when he was really interested in a subject. He got promoted very rapidly to Health Secretary without much experience in more junior roles. Then and now I think he has a problem with coming across as grumpy and thin skinned when challenged on an issue that he cares about. I've heard him described as unsocial which might be a problem in winning over MPs in a leadership race. On the other hand he has a remarkable back story and is a very fluent communicator. If Starmer stays as PM for a decent innings then I think he'll be a much better candidate having been tempered by office.Cookie said:
He's second favourite because lost of gamblers on politics vote on 'it should be him because he's best', not understanding that being best is only one of a number of factors leading to political success.rottenborough said:
More than that - he doesn't have the membership vote.Foxy said:
Like I said. Rayner is good at politics.rottenborough said:Massive, if true.
Ailbhe Rea
@PronouncedAlva
·
7m
It was Angela Rayner who pushed for today's major U-turn to be made, when it became clear the govt was going to lose the vote.
Extraordinary that a govt with a working majority of 165 was on course to lose - and that it only stopped it two and a half hours before the vote
Remember that to win the leadership you need to understand and have the support of backbenchers in your own party. Rayner has that, Streeting does not. He is Billy Nomates.
I have no idea why he is 2nd favourite. He's very talented. Top communicator. Easily best in his party. Arguably he should be leader. But where's the vote?0 -
It doesn't have to be child, does it? I mean it's traditionally a child, but there's nothing stopping it being - say - a 78 year old man living in Washington DC and Florida.Cookie said:Something I've just found out:
The Dalai Lama is now about 90. When he dies, he gets reincarnated. My understanding is that some Tibetan monks work out who is born bang on when dies and that person becomes the new Dalai Lama (the belief being it's literally the same person). Presumably there are a few candidates checked and kept in reserve and some furtive negotiations with parents. Fascinating to think how this might unfurl in the 21st century. A spanner in the works is that since the last reincarnation, political control of Tibet is now in the hands of the CCP, who now insist that they have a monopoly on knowing which baby is a reincarnation of the Dalai Lama (a process which presumably, they don't believe in?) Fascinating to see how this pans out.2 -
My understanding is that Sir Kier Starmer will be on the banknotes going forward.DecrepiterJohnL said:Bank of England to redesign banknotes
Banknotes issued by the Bank of England are about to get their first major redesign in more than 50 years.
Notable historical figures, such as Sir Winston Churchill on the current fiver, have featured on these banknotes since 1970 but could be on the way out.
The public are being asked for their views on new themes, such as nature, innovation, or key events in history.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy4nn1d2vzxo
May the gods preserve us from no-marks wanting to make their little bit of history.1 -
That would be a sensible u-turn; the mystery is how snowflake got into such an inappropriate overreaction in the first place?FrancisUrquhart said:Next U-Turn incoming?
The home secretary is coming under increasing pressure to abandon plans to ban Palestine Action, as UN experts and hundreds of lawyers warned that proscribing the group would conflate protest and terrorism.
In two separate letters to Yvette Cooper, the Network for Police Monitoring (Netpol) lawyers’ group and the Haldane Society of Socialist Lawyers said that proscribing the group would set a dangerous precedent.
Additionally, several UN special rapporteurs, including those for protecting human rights while countering terrorism and for promoting freedom of expression, said they had contacted the UK government to say that “acts of protest that damage property, but are not intended to kill or injure people, should not be treated as terrorism”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/01/yvette-cooper-plan-ban-palestine-action-un-experts-lawyers0 -
She must have stopped reading PB as we were first to question if plane-painting amounted to terrorism.IanB2 said:
That would be a sensible u-turn; the mystery is how snowflake got into such an inappropriate overreaction in the first place?FrancisUrquhart said:Next U-Turn incoming?
The home secretary is coming under increasing pressure to abandon plans to ban Palestine Action, as UN experts and hundreds of lawyers warned that proscribing the group would conflate protest and terrorism.
In two separate letters to Yvette Cooper, the Network for Police Monitoring (Netpol) lawyers’ group and the Haldane Society of Socialist Lawyers said that proscribing the group would set a dangerous precedent.
Additionally, several UN special rapporteurs, including those for protecting human rights while countering terrorism and for promoting freedom of expression, said they had contacted the UK government to say that “acts of protest that damage property, but are not intended to kill or injure people, should not be treated as terrorism”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/01/yvette-cooper-plan-ban-palestine-action-un-experts-lawyers0 -
.
The greater blindness is the apparent ignorance of our debt levels, and what that implies.Cookie said:
I'd love to know who that was.williamglenn said:https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/1940143354836394128
After the welfare climbdown, one Labour MP was heard saying: “I don’t understand why this means tax rises when it’s only a few billion pounds.”
There is a real blindness among the public at large in how much greater a billion is than a million. It's depressing but not surprising that this includes MPs.
Just economic illiteracy.
2 -
Funny how "the rule of law" shouldn't happen when the law conflicts with the attitudes those who scream loudly about it care about.FrancisUrquhart said:Next U-Turn incoming?
The home secretary is coming under increasing pressure to abandon plans to ban Palestine Action, as UN experts and hundreds of lawyers warned that proscribing the group would conflate protest and terrorism.
In two separate letters to Yvette Cooper, the Network for Police Monitoring (Netpol) lawyers’ group and the Haldane Society of Socialist Lawyers said that proscribing the group would set a dangerous precedent.
Additionally, several UN special rapporteurs, including those for protecting human rights while countering terrorism and for promoting freedom of expression, said they had contacted the UK government to say that “acts of protest that damage property, but are not intended to kill or injure people, should not be treated as terrorism”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/01/yvette-cooper-plan-ban-palestine-action-un-experts-lawyers
Damaging property absolutely is classed as terrorism, legally. That is the law.3 -
Disability payments are one of the fastest growing items of expenditure. They also sit at the intersection of health and welfare, the two largest items of government expenditure.Eabhal said:
But then government spending is £1.3 trillion, and the deficit £140 billion. Compared to that, the saving really is a rounding error, and I think the expected market reaction is exaggerated as a result.Cookie said:
I'd love to know who that was.williamglenn said:https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/1940143354836394128
After the welfare climbdown, one Labour MP was heard saying: “I don’t understand why this means tax rises when it’s only a few billion pounds.”
There is a real blindness among the public at large in how much greater a billion is than a million. It's depressing but not surprising that this includes MPs.
I guess it sends a signal about fiscal discipline, but no analyst is really going to be surprised by this mess. All of this stuff is utterly dwarfed by rising health spending anyway.
A demonstration that they remain out of control sends quite the signal.
1 -
The next season of Clarkson's farm is no doubt going to feature the impact of this Labour Government on the future of the UK food producing farming community after that PM Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves Autumn budget last year as the credits on the last episode of the last series hinted..Dura_Ace said:
£5 ClarksonDecrepiterJohnL said:Bank of England to redesign banknotes
Banknotes issued by the Bank of England are about to get their first major redesign in more than 50 years.
Notable historical figures, such as Sir Winston Churchill on the current fiver, have featured on these banknotes since 1970 but could be on the way out.
The public are being asked for their views on new themes, such as nature, innovation, or key events in history.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy4nn1d2vzxo
May the gods preserve us from no-marks wanting to make their little bit of history.
£10 Diana
£20 Captain Tom
£50 a JCB
🇬🇧
I live in a rural farming community so I know how tough it has been for years for family farms passed down the generations and how they struggle to survive and keep going and how little reward they get because of the dominance of the supermarkets. Take sheep farmers, it was at the point where it didn't make any financial sense for them to keep going and feed and raise a herd of sheep over a year when the market price was so low they were making a loss! But at the same time lamb prices in the supermarket were pricing the product out of the reach of most families, and it will only get worse if we keep losing farming land that produces key home produce for our UK market.
One thing I remember about David Cameron's premiership, he got the importance of promoting home food security and the need to support our farming community to sustain it. Sadly, this urban run Labour Government under Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves doesn't even get the basic economics far less the wider implications of their lazy class driven prejudices towards our supposed land 'asset' rich but poor farmers who barely manage a sustainable income to live on while they battle the elements weather wise and this omnishambles of a Labour government to put food on our tables.6 -
Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse?Dura_Ace said:
£5 ClarksonDecrepiterJohnL said:Bank of England to redesign banknotes
Banknotes issued by the Bank of England are about to get their first major redesign in more than 50 years.
Notable historical figures, such as Sir Winston Churchill on the current fiver, have featured on these banknotes since 1970 but could be on the way out.
The public are being asked for their views on new themes, such as nature, innovation, or key events in history.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy4nn1d2vzxo
May the gods preserve us from no-marks wanting to make their little bit of history.
£10 Diana
£20 Captain Tom
£50 a JCB
🇬🇧
£5 Conquest
£10 War
£20 Famine
£50 Death1 -
Plus thisNigelb said:
Disability payments are one of the fastest growing items of expenditure. They also sit at the intersection of health and welfare, the two largest items of government expenditure.Eabhal said:
But then government spending is £1.3 trillion, and the deficit £140 billion. Compared to that, the saving really is a rounding error, and I think the expected market reaction is exaggerated as a result.Cookie said:
I'd love to know who that was.williamglenn said:https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/1940143354836394128
After the welfare climbdown, one Labour MP was heard saying: “I don’t understand why this means tax rises when it’s only a few billion pounds.”
There is a real blindness among the public at large in how much greater a billion is than a million. It's depressing but not surprising that this includes MPs.
I guess it sends a signal about fiscal discipline, but no analyst is really going to be surprised by this mess. All of this stuff is utterly dwarfed by rising health spending anyway.
A demonstration that they remain out of control sends quite the signal.
“The United Kingdom faces the largest single-year exodus of wealth ever recorded, per Forbes.”
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1940107383373709770?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
We are now in a truly dire doom loop. NYC in the 70s. We are stuck with monumental debt and a left wing government that only knows how to add to that debt. The debt is paid by wealthy taxpayers - but they’re fleeing
As they go the tax base shrinks and services wither - so crime and disorder increases. So, more rich people leave
London property, as I’ve said, is likely to crater. We could see an unprecedented implosion2 -
They'll try and sell it as a victory as inequality will have come down.Leon said:
Plus thisNigelb said:
Disability payments are one of the fastest growing items of expenditure. They also sit at the intersection of health and welfare, the two largest items of government expenditure.Eabhal said:
But then government spending is £1.3 trillion, and the deficit £140 billion. Compared to that, the saving really is a rounding error, and I think the expected market reaction is exaggerated as a result.Cookie said:
I'd love to know who that was.williamglenn said:https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/1940143354836394128
After the welfare climbdown, one Labour MP was heard saying: “I don’t understand why this means tax rises when it’s only a few billion pounds.”
There is a real blindness among the public at large in how much greater a billion is than a million. It's depressing but not surprising that this includes MPs.
I guess it sends a signal about fiscal discipline, but no analyst is really going to be surprised by this mess. All of this stuff is utterly dwarfed by rising health spending anyway.
A demonstration that they remain out of control sends quite the signal.
“The United Kingdom faces the largest single-year exodus of wealth ever recorded, per Forbes.”
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1940107383373709770?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
We are now in a truly dire doom loop. NYC in the 70s. We are stuck with monumental debt and a left wing government that only knows how to add to that debt. The debt is paid by wealthy taxpayers - but they’re fleeing
As they go the tax base shrinks and services wither - so crime and disorder increases. So, more rich people leave
London property, as I’ve said, is likely to crater. We could see an unprecedented implosion4 -
Something tells me that those on the right who are worried about the debt will forget all about that if Reform win who also have no realistic or feasible fiscal policies3
-
I doubt it, considering we just had 14 years of right-led government where many of us on the right who are worried about debt never forgot about it.Gallowgate said:Something tells me that those on the right who are worried about the debt will forget all about that if Reform win who also have no realistic or feasible fiscal policies
And it led to the removal of one Prime Minister within days, brought down by people on the right who were concerned about debt.2 -
Curious why you end such a negative post on such an optimistic conclusion.Leon said:
Plus thisNigelb said:
Disability payments are one of the fastest growing items of expenditure. They also sit at the intersection of health and welfare, the two largest items of government expenditure.Eabhal said:
But then government spending is £1.3 trillion, and the deficit £140 billion. Compared to that, the saving really is a rounding error, and I think the expected market reaction is exaggerated as a result.Cookie said:
I'd love to know who that was.williamglenn said:https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/1940143354836394128
After the welfare climbdown, one Labour MP was heard saying: “I don’t understand why this means tax rises when it’s only a few billion pounds.”
There is a real blindness among the public at large in how much greater a billion is than a million. It's depressing but not surprising that this includes MPs.
I guess it sends a signal about fiscal discipline, but no analyst is really going to be surprised by this mess. All of this stuff is utterly dwarfed by rising health spending anyway.
A demonstration that they remain out of control sends quite the signal.
“The United Kingdom faces the largest single-year exodus of wealth ever recorded, per Forbes.”
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1940107383373709770?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
We are now in a truly dire doom loop. NYC in the 70s. We are stuck with monumental debt and a left wing government that only knows how to add to that debt. The debt is paid by wealthy taxpayers - but they’re fleeing
As they go the tax base shrinks and services wither - so crime and disorder increases. So, more rich people leave
London property, as I’ve said, is likely to crater. We could see an unprecedented implosion
I doubt you're right though, unfortunately, since supply vastly exceeds demand still so prices should remain stubbornly high.1 -
I've just been on Facebook and read a sad story about a 61 year old man who died open water swimming.
Which is sad and tragic, obviously. But two different people in the comments put, for zero reason whatsoever, that the death must be a result of vaccination.
Are these people really that deluded, or are they trolls, or bots who are part of a disinformation campaign?0 -
I am no fan of the Reform party, but can you remind of the realistic or feasible fiscal plans this Labour Government had in place immediately after Keir Starmer won the leadership contest and became the Leader of the Opposition for the next four years? I wouldn't mind, but having watched him and his party in Government literally ditch and go back on all the fiscal policy promises they made to the electorate over the last couple of years they were in Opposition I find it a bit rich to have a dig at any other Opposition parties.Gallowgate said:Something tells me that those on the right who are worried about the debt will forget all about that if Reform win who also have no realistic or feasible fiscal policies
1 -
One interesting snippet (amongst loads obviously) in Orwell’s diaries is at what a premium alarm clocks went for during WWII. Manufacturing had other priorities and working clocks cost big money. I suppose the lower orders still had knockers up for their early shift at the Sten gun factory, but who knocked up the knockers up?rcs1000 said:
Which party will fight for those who use their mobile phones to wake themselves up in the morning?rottenborough said:Oh, so edgy. Totally radical. How can they lose?
Yet Nick Clegg said same thing ten or more years ago:
Zia Yusuf
@ZiaYusufUK
·
3h
Reform will fight for those who set their alarm clocks. ⏰
https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/19401286272509299590 -
There a big difference between a party that is trying to be fiscally responsible but picking the wrong cuts to a party that is even now promising everyone their cut (lower taxes, higher spending, keeping very quiet about the NHS).fitalass said:
I am no fan of the Reform party, but can you remind of the realistic or feasible fiscal plans this Labour Government had in place immediately after Keir Starmer won the leadership contest and became the Leader of the Opposition for the next four years? I wouldn't mind, but having watched him and his party in Government literally ditch and go back on all the fiscal policy promises they made to the electorate over the last couple of years they were in Opposition I find it a bit rich to have a dig at any other Opposition parties.Gallowgate said:Something tells me that those on the right who are worried about the debt will forget all about that if Reform win who also have no realistic or feasible fiscal policies
As for this Government - it's a mess. And the welfare cuts so badly announced that no wonder the Government had to conceed.0 -
Meanwhile, in local news from London,
I see former Mayoral candidate [Susan Hall] has joined Rupert Lowe's new outfit. So has David Starkey. Elon Musk seems to also support it.
Restore Britain wants to: deport 2 million people, have net negative migration, restore the death penalty, ban the burqa, defund the BBC.
https://bsky.app/profile/rolandmcs.bsky.social/post/3lsxj3tgqzc2i
Technically OK, since Restore isn't a party, but not really compatible with being a Conservative AM, surely?
0 -
Is it true they want to deport two million people? What's their criteria?Stuartinromford said:Meanwhile, in local news from London,
I see former Mayoral candidate [Susan Hall] has joined Rupert Lowe's new outfit. So has David Starkey. Elon Musk seems to also support it.
Restore Britain wants to: deport 2 million people, have net negative migration, restore the death penalty, ban the burqa, defund the BBC.
https://bsky.app/profile/rolandmcs.bsky.social/post/3lsxj3tgqzc2i
Technically OK, since Restore isn't a party, but not really compatible with being a Conservative AM, surely?
And their name is pants, as 'restore UK' is already used by several groups, including:
"Restore, a project of Birmingham Churches Together, working with refugees and asylum seekers in Birmingham, Solihull and Smethwick. Our vision statement is:
Restore’s vision is for a society into which all refugees and asylum seekers are welcomed, valued and integrated."
https://www.restore-uk.org/about-us/0 -
Well I’m with them on the BBCStuartinromford said:Meanwhile, in local news from London,
I see former Mayoral candidate [Susan Hall] has joined Rupert Lowe's new outfit. So has David Starkey. Elon Musk seems to also support it.
Restore Britain wants to: deport 2 million people, have net negative migration, restore the death penalty, ban the burqa, defund the BBC.
https://bsky.app/profile/rolandmcs.bsky.social/post/3lsxj3tgqzc2i
Technically OK, since Restore isn't a party, but not really compatible with being a Conservative AM, surely?1 -
"Humiliation for Starmer as he loses control of Commons"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czry6gv80mjo
Chris Mason sticks the boot in.
1 -
They had to concede because many of the dimmer back benches believed the lies about things being choices and the Tories being evil, that this was a rich country (instead of a deeply indebted one) and that these sorts of cuts were not necessary. And, of course, Starmer being Starmer, he had to accept the fantasy rather than face the reality.eek said:
There a big difference between a party that is trying to be fiscally responsible but picking the wrong cuts to a party that is even now promising everyone their cut (lower taxes, higher spending, keeping very quiet about the NHS).fitalass said:
I am no fan of the Reform party, but can you remind of the realistic or feasible fiscal plans this Labour Government had in place immediately after Keir Starmer won the leadership contest and became the Leader of the Opposition for the next four years? I wouldn't mind, but having watched him and his party in Government literally ditch and go back on all the fiscal policy promises they made to the electorate over the last couple of years they were in Opposition I find it a bit rich to have a dig at any other Opposition parties.Gallowgate said:Something tells me that those on the right who are worried about the debt will forget all about that if Reform win who also have no realistic or feasible fiscal policies
As for this Government - it's a mess. And the welfare cuts so badly announced that no wonder the Government had to conceed.4 -
They'll forget about it while voting for them.Gallowgate said:Something tells me that those on the right who are worried about the debt will forget all about that if Reform win who also have no realistic or feasible fiscal policies
It will take considerably more effort to ignore it were Reform actually to be elected.1 -
L4%K fans, SKS fans please explain!0
-
Perhaps we will come to look back fondly on Farage as a moderate.Stuartinromford said:Meanwhile, in local news from London,
I see former Mayoral candidate [Susan Hall] has joined Rupert Lowe's new outfit. So has David Starkey. Elon Musk seems to also support it.
Restore Britain wants to: deport 2 million people, have net negative migration, restore the death penalty, ban the burqa, defund the BBC.
https://bsky.app/profile/rolandmcs.bsky.social/post/3lsxj3tgqzc2i
Technically OK, since Restore isn't a party, but not really compatible with being a Conservative AM, surely?1
