Badenoch is entering Truss territory – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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I know. it's quite incredibly failing on almost every section. Kudos on openness, though: I can imagine they;'d want to keep the report secret instead of putting it on their website...AugustusCarp2 said:
Blimey!JosiasJessop said:For anyone interested in local politics, the audit of our town council is quite eye-opening. See page 7 onwards:
https://www.cambournetowncouncil.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/115/2025/06/Agenda-Pack-30th-June-2025.pdf1 -
Of course, I completely agree.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You want to eliminate growth completely and add to unemploymentMikeL said:
I'm certainly not a Labour supporter but what else could Reeves do?numbertwelve said:A very good point made on the BBC has been the serious mistake Reeves has made by stubbornly running the Treasury with a vanishingly small amount of fiscal headroom, so that every time a fiscal event comes round she’s run out, and needs to claw some money back from somewhere.
It’s happened once already and it’s already odds on to be happening again in the autumn. In “mid term”, budgets should be dull affairs, a bit of tinkering here, the odd little tweak there, but keeping the overall trajectory broadly on track.
But Reeves has made everything dependant on a very small window being hit. Pretty much any policy reversal or change can knock her off course, and create negative news cycles of tax rises/spending cuts.
SKS is poor, I think we all know that, but Reeves is the really terrible strategist in this government.
To create more headroom would require even more tax rises and spending cuts.
And it's quite clear they aren't going to be able to get any meaningful spending cuts through their backbenchers.
It's obvious that the only thing they can do is raise employers NI - because it is the only really big tax raiser that the average person doesn't understand and therefore doesn't think it impacts them - so it's the only big tax increase that can be made without an outcry.
So expect another really big increase in employers NI - whatever is needed to raise about £15bn to £20bn.
It's a view
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/jun/26/uk-businesses-tax-rises-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-shell-bp-no-bid-business-live?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
My point is there is no point Labour MPs and supporters now blaming Reeves - because no other Labour Chancellor would have done anything different.
Blaming Reeves now is just using her as a scapegoat to distract from the fact they haven't got any solution.
The only proper solution, of course, would be to make really serious spending cuts - principally welfare but also keeping a proper grip on public sector pay and reforming public sector pensions etc.3 -
My mistake I was thinking of air conditioning replacing your current boiler as whole - which is what happens in most of the world and hotels..occasionalranter said:
In winter, presumably opening a window?eek said:
Air conditioning is rather energy intensive - which isn't a problem if it's a cooling because the sun is out (we are going to have an insane amount of excess energy from solar panels) but is a problem in winter where cheaper more fuel efficient options are available...Andy_JS said:
Air conditioning in homes simply isn't British. You just have to put up with it.Gardenwalker said:I believe it will be 35 degrees in London this Monday and the government of course penalises residential air con.
We’ve just had a “heat dome” here in New York, with temperatures reaching 39 degrees in my neck of the woods. You would be considered mentally unfit if you suggested forsaking air con here.1 -
His latest interview sounds like a cry for help from a drowning man who willingly jumped in the seaBlancheLivermore said:No words currently exist to describe Starmer's utter unsuitability and hopelessness as Prime Minister
Sirkeirness must be born as an appropriate neologism
It's a bit like Trussness, but her side booted her out. What will Labour do?1 -
I would get 5-to-1 on using it as heating in winter. Except that in a modern loft conversion, you don't need heating. The heat rising in the house does the job.occasionalranter said:
In winter, presumably opening a window?eek said:
Air conditioning is rather energy intensive - which isn't a problem if it's a cooling because the sun is out (we are going to have an insane amount of excess energy from solar panels) but is a problem in winter where cheaper more fuel efficient options are available...Andy_JS said:
Air conditioning in homes simply isn't British. You just have to put up with it.Gardenwalker said:I believe it will be 35 degrees in London this Monday and the government of course penalises residential air con.
We’ve just had a “heat dome” here in New York, with temperatures reaching 39 degrees in my neck of the woods. You would be considered mentally unfit if you suggested forsaking air con here.0 -
I'm thinking of extending the system to the whole house. At which point you could do all the heating from it.eek said:
My mistake I was thinking of air conditioning replacing your current boiler as whole - which is what happens in most of the world and hotels..occasionalranter said:
In winter, presumably opening a window?eek said:
Air conditioning is rather energy intensive - which isn't a problem if it's a cooling because the sun is out (we are going to have an insane amount of excess energy from solar panels) but is a problem in winter where cheaper more fuel efficient options are available...Andy_JS said:
Air conditioning in homes simply isn't British. You just have to put up with it.Gardenwalker said:I believe it will be 35 degrees in London this Monday and the government of course penalises residential air con.
We’ve just had a “heat dome” here in New York, with temperatures reaching 39 degrees in my neck of the woods. You would be considered mentally unfit if you suggested forsaking air con here.0 -
No way more than half of that is getting fixed in a year. If that.JosiasJessop said:For anyone interested in local politics, the audit of our town council is quite eye-opening. See page 7 onwards:
https://www.cambournetowncouncil.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/115/2025/06/Agenda-Pack-30th-June-2025.pdf1 -
That train is my idea of hell. Or one of themGardenwalker said:Saw this clip about a mad, grinning guitarist on a UK train.
https://x.com/mcandidate/status/1938309608877011203?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg
I simply don’t recognise this Britain.
Why aren’t the other passengers squirming uncomfortably and peering fiercely into their phones.1 -
Who other than Kinabula and MexPete thinks that Starmer has been listening to the people and is a great guy for U turning on controversial policies?
Surely all sensible folk see this as embarrassing weakness from a man elected with a two thousand seat majority less than a year ago0 -
Unlike the Tories, Labour requires its members to always have the final say on its leader if a contested leadership election. MPs can only nominate the candidates, so most likely if Starmer went Rayner would be elected to replace him as UK PM and Labour leader by Labour memberseek said:
It's way harder for Labour members to boot out a leader than the Tories.BlancheLivermore said:No words currently exist to describe Starmer's utter unsuitability and hopelessness as Prime Minister
Sirkeirness must be born as an appropriate neologism
It's a bit like Trussness, but her side booted her out. What will Labour do?
Equally I'm not sure who you could replace her with - it's not like they have someone like Rishi who was preferred by MPs in the wings quietly waiting to take over.
The reality is none of the Cabinet look much better..0 -
Regular reminder that keeping a proper grip on public sector pay Tory style has been re-employ the very same people you employed on a salary three years ago, then paid to make redundant, on a shift basis at 3-5x the cost because of a dispute over whether to increase wages by 4% or 6%.MikeL said:
Of course, I completely agree.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You want to eliminate growth completely and add to unemploymentMikeL said:
I'm certainly not a Labour supporter but what else could Reeves do?numbertwelve said:A very good point made on the BBC has been the serious mistake Reeves has made by stubbornly running the Treasury with a vanishingly small amount of fiscal headroom, so that every time a fiscal event comes round she’s run out, and needs to claw some money back from somewhere.
It’s happened once already and it’s already odds on to be happening again in the autumn. In “mid term”, budgets should be dull affairs, a bit of tinkering here, the odd little tweak there, but keeping the overall trajectory broadly on track.
But Reeves has made everything dependant on a very small window being hit. Pretty much any policy reversal or change can knock her off course, and create negative news cycles of tax rises/spending cuts.
SKS is poor, I think we all know that, but Reeves is the really terrible strategist in this government.
To create more headroom would require even more tax rises and spending cuts.
And it's quite clear they aren't going to be able to get any meaningful spending cuts through their backbenchers.
It's obvious that the only thing they can do is raise employers NI - because it is the only really big tax raiser that the average person doesn't understand and therefore doesn't think it impacts them - so it's the only big tax increase that can be made without an outcry.
So expect another really big increase in employers NI - whatever is needed to raise about £15bn to £20bn.
It's a view
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/jun/26/uk-businesses-tax-rises-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-shell-bp-no-bid-business-live?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
My point is there is no point Labour MPs and supporters now blaming Reeves - because no other Labour Chancellor would have done anything different.
Blaming Reeves now is just using her as a scapegoat to distract from the fact they haven't got any solution.
The only proper solution, of course, would be to make really serious spending cuts - principally welfare but also keeping a proper grip on public sector pay and reforming public sector pensions etc.
Yet to understand how this saves money......1 -
Bring back Corbyn?BlancheLivermore said:Who other than Kinabula and MexPete thinks that Starmer has been listening to the people and is a great guy for U turning on controversial policies?
Surely all sensible folk see this as embarrassing weakness from a man elected with a two thousand seat majority less than a year ago0 -
I don't think even @kinabalu or @Mexicanpete actualy believe what they're sayingBlancheLivermore said:Who other than Kinabula and MexPete thinks that Starmer has been listening to the people and is a great guy for U turning on controversial policies?
Surely all sensible folk see this as embarrassing weakness from a man elected with a two thousand seat majority less than a year ago
It's blind partisan loyalty, mixed with denial and despair1 -
No, voters get their say every 4 or 5 years at a general election that is it, otherwise if they could recall all MPs and the government at once not just those convicted for expenses fraud or a crime no government could govern properly.Fairliered said:
Most jobs have a probation period. Voters should be able to sack the PM and call for another GE after 6 months or a year when a government is as shit as this one has been.Leon said:
Starmer has - incredibly - reached a state of pitiable wankerdom after just one year. His pitch to the voters now is basically “yes I’m quite shit and I don’t know what I’m doing and I keep getting it wrong but I’m tired”Andy_JS said:
Don't think I've ever heard a politician say they read a speech they didn't agree with. There really is a first time for everything.isam said:The essence of Sir Keir. A vegetarian who eats chicken when he’s a bit hungry.
People welcoming the 'candour' in Starmer's Observer interview. In it, he concedes he gave a major speech on immigration, the number one issue of concern to voters. But admits he hadn't properly read it, didn't believe it, didn't want to do it, and regrets delivering it.
https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/1938556398524104899?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
The system as is is fine, 200 years ago 90% of the UK population weren't even eligible to vote at all0 -
MikeL said:
Of course, I completely agree.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You want to eliminate growth completely and add to unemploymentMikeL said:
I'm certainly not a Labour supporter but what else could Reeves do?numbertwelve said:A very good point made on the BBC has been the serious mistake Reeves has made by stubbornly running the Treasury with a vanishingly small amount of fiscal headroom, so that every time a fiscal event comes round she’s run out, and needs to claw some money back from somewhere.
It’s happened once already and it’s already odds on to be happening again in the autumn. In “mid term”, budgets should be dull affairs, a bit of tinkering here, the odd little tweak there, but keeping the overall trajectory broadly on track.
But Reeves has made everything dependant on a very small window being hit. Pretty much any policy reversal or change can knock her off course, and create negative news cycles of tax rises/spending cuts.
SKS is poor, I think we all know that, but Reeves is the really terrible strategist in this government.
To create more headroom would require even more tax rises and spending cuts.
And it's quite clear they aren't going to be able to get any meaningful spending cuts through their backbenchers.
It's obvious that the only thing they can do is raise employers NI - because it is the only really big tax raiser that the average person doesn't understand and therefore doesn't think it impacts them - so it's the only big tax increase that can be made without an outcry.
So expect another really big increase in employers NI - whatever is needed to raise about £15bn to £20bn.
It's a view
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/jun/26/uk-businesses-tax-rises-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-shell-bp-no-bid-business-live?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
My point is there is no point Labour MPs and supporters now blaming Reeves - because no other Labour Chancellor would have done anything different.
Blaming Reeves now is just using her as a scapegoat to distract from the fact they haven't got any solution.
The only proper solution, of course, would be to make really serious spending cuts - principally welfare but also keeping a proper grip on public sector pay and reforming public sector pensions etc.
That’s sadly not happening and we’ve the spectre of Rayners ‘workers rights’ bill to come
0 -
Do we know how much the BBC spend on Glastonbury?
One pound is too much0 -
One of few times when I still regularly watch BBC terrestrial these days, myself. The other being the Proms, both in the summer.BlancheLivermore said:Do we know how much the BBC spend on Glastonbury?
One pound is too much0 -
Crunched the numbers on the YouGov MRP from yesterday which gave Reform 277 seats and it turns out a swing of about 2% to the party would have given them an extra 61 seats taking them to 338 seats and a majority of around 26.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52437-first-yougov-mrp-since-2024-election-shows-a-hung-parliament-with-reform-uk-as-largest-party
Reform less than 1% behind winning party: 11 seats
1% behind: 14
2% behind: 11
3% behind: 12
4% behind: 130 -
Only at plastic clubs like LiverpoolTheScreamingEagles said:
It’s the same at the football.FrancisUrquhart said:
I absolutely f##king hate how so many people when presented with live music insist on filming it on their cellphones. It feels like 75% of the people at gigs now watch the entire performance through the screen of their phone.Gardenwalker said:Saw this clip about a mad, grinning guitarist on a UK train.
https://x.com/mcandidate/status/1938309608877011203?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg
I simply don’t recognise this Britain.
Why aren’t the other passengers squirming uncomfortably and peering fiercely into their phones.0 -
And a 2% swing the other way would have made a Labour and LD and SNP and Green government possible, as it is Reform would need Tory and DUP support to govern on the Yougov MRPAndy_JS said:Crunched the numbers on the YouGov MRP from yesterday which gave Reform 277 seats and it turns out a swing of about 2% to the party would have given them an extra 61 seats taking them to 338 seats and a majority of around 26.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52437-first-yougov-mrp-since-2024-election-shows-a-hung-parliament-with-reform-uk-as-largest-party1 -
I always feel sorry for the couple of people who get the short straw and have to remain at HQ running the channel while 99% are off on the jolly.BlancheLivermore said:Do we know how much the BBC spend on Glastonbury?
One pound is too much1 -
Historically, you were asked all this stuff so that if they wanted to deport you later, it would be easy because you would have lied on your ESTA.Andy_JS said:
They can probably make a big thing out of it if they feel like it.IanB2 said:
The ESTA form always did ask you for your social media handles and account names. But I’ve never known anyone challenged for not filling that bit in.Gardenwalker said:The U.S. is asking those applying for student and exchange visas to “make their social media public” as part of the vetting process.
I wonder how social media is defined or what “make public” means.1 -
Seems like a huge change for the US after the new SCOTUS ruling. Not sure how anything can stop Trump simply deporting citizens now. Grim times ahead for the US.0
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I've kept out of your way today. Simply adding a joke to lighten all of the PB RefCon herd's otherwise witheringly dreary posts.Leon said:
I don't believe even @kinabalu or @Mexicanpete actualy believe what they're sayingBlancheLivermore said:Who other than Kinabula and MexPete thinks that Starmer has been listening to the people and is a great guy for U turning on controversial policies?
Surely all sensible folk see this as embarrassing weakness from a man elected with a two thousand seat majority less than a year ago
It's blind partisan loyalty, mixed with denial and despair
I don't suggest you do read them, but if you had read my posts yesterday I was scathing about Starmer's performance over the performatively cruel Welfare Reform Bill. A lesson in how to dispose of all one's political capital with nil gain. Likewise WFA, a lesson in how to mis-sell an otherwise worthy policy.
Starmer is incredibly bad at politics. However he joins a substantial list of crap politicians who have been at the forefront of the last decade. Utterly pathetic though he may have been he is yet to (although it is possible he will) plumb Johnsonian levels of political depravity.0 -
So I can at least slightly blame WhiskeringUrinal (sorry, typo!) for the Beeb's utter obsession with a completely corporate music festival?WhisperingOracle said:
One of few times when I still regularly watch BBC terrestrial these days, myself. The other being the Proms, both in the summer.BlancheLivermore said:Do we know how much the BBC spend on Glastonbury?
One pound is too much0 -
Yes of course. It shows Reform could win a majority with as little as 30% because the overall figure for the MRP was 27% for the party.HYUFD said:
And a 2% swing the other way would have made a Labour and LD and SNP and Green government possible, as it is Reform would need Tory and DUP support to govern on the Yougov MRPAndy_JS said:Crunched the numbers on the YouGov MRP from yesterday which gave Reform 277 seats and it turns out a swing of about 2% to the party would have given them an extra 61 seats taking them to 338 seats and a majority of around 26.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52437-first-yougov-mrp-since-2024-election-shows-a-hung-parliament-with-reform-uk-as-largest-party1 -
The SCOTUS judgment reads like a very well argued slap down of activist judges, to me. We could do with the same in the UK/EUMaxPB said:Seems like a huge change for the US after the new SCOTUS ruling. Not sure how anything can stop Trump simply deporting citizens now. Grim times ahead for the US.
This is not an opinion on Trump's ICE antics: that is a different matter0 -
Ian Dunt's reply to Matt Goodwin's recent criticism of London.
"They hate London because it is beautiful
Matthew Goodwin went to London the other day and what he found shook him to his core.
Ian Dunt"
https://iandunt.substack.com/p/they-hate-london-because-it-is-beautiful
Quote
"This is why London must be portrayed as a rotting failure. If London is seen as a success, it collapses their worldview. If it is seen as a failure, it vindicates it. For these purposes, London is immigration. That is what it symbolises. That is what it represents. It has effectively ceased to have meaning outside of that association."2 -
Having attended a couple, I suspect Dura would either be chucked out for relentlessly taking the piss out of the instructor, or actually lamping them.MustaphaMondeo said:
do the course, if you can, its quite an interesting cross section of peeps.Dura_Ace said:
Never do the course, it's an act of submission. Deny, deny, deny. Then pay up if you have to.OldKingCole said:Can I have an totally o/t moan.
My wife has a speeding charge; first for 60+ years, before anyone asks. She's been offered the usual choice; Speed Awareness Course or fine. So, of course, she wants to do the course.
BUT the website won't load and the 'advisors' at Essex Police's office are all, it seems, too busy to answer the phone.
Grrr
The online version is considerably less trying.
0 -
It looks absolutely awful. But I wonder how common this sort of thing is; I assume it is unusual to have failed quite so spectacularly?carnforth said:
No way more than half of that is getting fixed in a year. If that.JosiasJessop said:For anyone interested in local politics, the audit of our town council is quite eye-opening. See page 7 onwards:
https://www.cambournetowncouncil.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/115/2025/06/Agenda-Pack-30th-June-2025.pdf0 -
Heat pump heating is pretty efficient.eek said:
Air conditioning is rather energy intensive - which isn't a problem if it's a cooling because the sun is out (we are going to have an insane amount of excess energy from solar panels) but is a problem in winter where cheaper more fuel efficient options are available...Andy_JS said:
Air conditioning in homes simply isn't British. You just have to put up with it.Gardenwalker said:I believe it will be 35 degrees in London this Monday and the government of course penalises residential air con.
We’ve just had a “heat dome” here in New York, with temperatures reaching 39 degrees in my neck of the woods. You would be considered mentally unfit if you suggested forsaking air con here.0 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
Interestingly, the current birth rate deficit in the UK is 300-350k.BartholomewRoberts said:
How cute to have people arguing over 172k net arrivals in a year.williamglenn said:
The man who couldn't see any upper limit on immigration.scampi25 said:
The only one near is probably (Sic) David Blunkett!😂😂😂🦯🦯🦯Fairliered said:
Thee only hope for Labour, and for renewal of the country is for Starmer to be replaced by someone with vision.numbertwelve said:
Big unknown at the moment is if SKS is even going to fight it.algarkirk said:
'Labour most seats' is the front runner in the betting for the next election, though not by much. Personally I think they are value. I would say at the next government being Labour led, either alone or in coalition is about a 65-70% chance. Reform led, about 20-25% chance. Other outcomes therefore 5-15% chance.tlg86 said:
I think it's the most likely outcome. Still, four years to go, a lot can happen in that time.GIN1138 said:Con HAS imploded and Lab ARE imploding - Farage is going to be PM isn't he?
On current form I’m beginning to find myself persuaded he will throw in the towel by then.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3265219.stm1 -
Yikes! What's the background to this, JJ? How long has the incompetence been going on?JosiasJessop said:
I know. it's quite incredibly failing on almost every section. Kudos on openness, though: I can imagine they;'d want to keep the report secret instead of putting it on their website...AugustusCarp2 said:
Blimey!JosiasJessop said:For anyone interested in local politics, the audit of our town council is quite eye-opening. See page 7 onwards:
https://www.cambournetowncouncil.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/115/2025/06/Agenda-Pack-30th-June-2025.pdf
Must say S Cambs seems a pretty nice place, the Council notwithstanding.0 -
I've no idea what the background is, or how long it's been going on. But it's the local town council, not S. Cambs council. And yes, it's a great place to live.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yikes! What's the background to this, JJ? How long has the incompetence been going on?JosiasJessop said:
I know. it's quite incredibly failing on almost every section. Kudos on openness, though: I can imagine they;'d want to keep the report secret instead of putting it on their website...AugustusCarp2 said:
Blimey!JosiasJessop said:For anyone interested in local politics, the audit of our town council is quite eye-opening. See page 7 onwards:
https://www.cambournetowncouncil.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/115/2025/06/Agenda-Pack-30th-June-2025.pdf
Must say S Cambs seems a pretty nice place, the Council notwithstanding.
I'm bemused and horrified in equal measure...0 -
God, what a load of blinkered drivelAndy_JS said:Ian Dunt's reply to Matt Goodwin's recent criticism of London.
"They hate London because it is beautiful
Matthew Goodwin went to London the other day and what he found shook him to his core.
Ian Dunt"
https://iandunt.substack.com/p/they-hate-london-because-it-is-beautiful
Quote
"This is why London must be portrayed as a rotting failure. If London is seen as a success, it collapses their worldview. If it is seen as a failure, it vindicates it. For these purposes, London is immigration. That is what it symbolises. That is what it represents. It has effectively ceased to have meaning outside of that association."0 -
Say what you like about Bozo, but he has done more to rectify this than any other PM, possibly more than all the other PMs this century combined.rcs1000 said:
Interestingly, the current birth rate deficit in the UK is 300-350k.BartholomewRoberts said:
How cute to have people arguing over 172k net arrivals in a year.williamglenn said:
The man who couldn't see any upper limit on immigration.scampi25 said:
The only one near is probably (Sic) David Blunkett!😂😂😂🦯🦯🦯Fairliered said:
Thee only hope for Labour, and for renewal of the country is for Starmer to be replaced by someone with vision.numbertwelve said:
Big unknown at the moment is if SKS is even going to fight it.algarkirk said:
'Labour most seats' is the front runner in the betting for the next election, though not by much. Personally I think they are value. I would say at the next government being Labour led, either alone or in coalition is about a 65-70% chance. Reform led, about 20-25% chance. Other outcomes therefore 5-15% chance.tlg86 said:
I think it's the most likely outcome. Still, four years to go, a lot can happen in that time.GIN1138 said:Con HAS imploded and Lab ARE imploding - Farage is going to be PM isn't he?
On current form I’m beginning to find myself persuaded he will throw in the towel by then.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3265219.stm0 -
teething problems, istr Blair having a benefit cut hiccup a year into his decade of ruleBlancheLivermore said:Who other than Kinabula and MexPete thinks that Starmer has been listening to the people and is a great guy for U turning on controversial policies?
Surely all sensible folk see this as embarrassing weakness from a man elected with a two thousand seat majority less than a year ago0 -
there's big bucks to be made in talking down our beautiful country these days. it's a sad state of affairsAndy_JS said:Ian Dunt's reply to Matt Goodwin's recent criticism of London.
"They hate London because it is beautiful
Matthew Goodwin went to London the other day and what he found shook him to his core.
Ian Dunt"
https://iandunt.substack.com/p/they-hate-london-because-it-is-beautiful
Quote
"This is why London must be portrayed as a rotting failure. If London is seen as a success, it collapses their worldview. If it is seen as a failure, it vindicates it. For these purposes, London is immigration. That is what it symbolises. That is what it represents. It has effectively ceased to have meaning outside of that association."2 -
Wasn't Blair still riding high at over 50% in the polls then?Tres said:
teething problems, istr Blair having a benefit cut hiccup a year into his decade of ruleBlancheLivermore said:Who other than Kinabula and MexPete thinks that Starmer has been listening to the people and is a great guy for U turning on controversial policies?
Surely all sensible folk see this as embarrassing weakness from a man elected with a two thousand seat majority less than a year ago
He certainly wasn't in the low twenties like Slalom0 -
Isn't this motre or less what the extreme MAGAs (if that's not a tautology) are suggesting for Zohran?rcs1000 said:
Historically, you were asked all this stuff so that if they wanted to deport you later, it would be easy because you would have lied on your ESTA.Andy_JS said:
They can probably make a big thing out of it if they feel like it.IanB2 said:
The ESTA form always did ask you for your social media handles and account names. But I’ve never known anyone challenged for not filling that bit in.Gardenwalker said:The U.S. is asking those applying for student and exchange visas to “make their social media public” as part of the vetting process.
I wonder how social media is defined or what “make public” means.
'You lied about being mildy progressive lefty, OUT!'0 -
Ian Dunt is an idiotLeon said:
God, what a load of blinkered drivelAndy_JS said:Ian Dunt's reply to Matt Goodwin's recent criticism of London.
"They hate London because it is beautiful
Matthew Goodwin went to London the other day and what he found shook him to his core.
Ian Dunt"
https://iandunt.substack.com/p/they-hate-london-because-it-is-beautiful
Quote
"This is why London must be portrayed as a rotting failure. If London is seen as a success, it collapses their worldview. If it is seen as a failure, it vindicates it. For these purposes, London is immigration. That is what it symbolises. That is what it represents. It has effectively ceased to have meaning outside of that association."0 -
Tres said:
there's big bucks to be made in talking down our beautiful country these days. it's a sad state of affairsAndy_JS said:Ian Dunt's reply to Matt Goodwin's recent criticism of London.
"They hate London because it is beautiful
Matthew Goodwin went to London the other day and what he found shook him to his core.
Ian Dunt"
https://iandunt.substack.com/p/they-hate-london-because-it-is-beautiful
Quote
"This is why London must be portrayed as a rotting failure. If London is seen as a success, it collapses their worldview. If it is seen as a failure, it vindicates it. For these purposes, London is immigration. That is what it symbolises. That is what it represents. It has effectively ceased to have meaning outside of that association."
Good point. Especially as there’s so little to complain about.
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So? If it had America's gas, it wouldn't.logical_song said:
"China is on track to install ~20 times more solar in 2025 than the United States."FrancisUrquhart said:"Increasingly think this might be the most important chart in the world right now"
https://x.com/AlecStapp/status/19385296159720531570 -
The Deterrence of Train Twats (Lethal Force) Bill 2026. If we can do assisted dying, we can do this. Sensible policies for a Better Britain.Gardenwalker said:Saw this clip about a mad, grinning guitarist on a UK train.
https://x.com/mcandidate/status/1938309608877011203?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg
I simply don’t recognise this Britain.
Why aren’t the other passengers squirming uncomfortably and peering fiercely into their phones.1 -
The current editor of the New Statesman is Tom McTague. The current editor of the Spectator is Michael Gove. Michael Gove is a [don't go there - Ed]eek said:
That's not true - to sell well you don't just need to write well, you need an editor to commission and edit, an audience willing to spend money and marketing to attract that audience.Leon said:
Yes, that will be great solace to all the New Statesman writers when the magazine goes bust and they have nowhere to writeGardenwalker said:
We were talking about quality, not quantity.Leon said:Spectator v New Statesman?!
There is no comparison
The Spectator - the oldest magazine in the world - has 100,000-120,000 subscribers/readers, and millons online. It is busily expanding into the USA, where Spectator World now has 20,000 rich educated subscribers, reading brilliant articles like this:
https://thespectator.com/life/i-tried-worlds-worst-drink/
Recently it sold for £100m:
"How The Spectator became UK’s most valuable magazine"
https://flashesandflames.com/2024/06/07/how-spectator-became-uks-most-valuable-magazine/
It also has extremely popular podcasts, a TV show, etc
The New Statesman has about 40,000 readers, no international presence, and is in active danger of going under
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/17/publishing-tycoon-pumps-millions-new-statesman-losses-mount/
If it was ever sold it would cost the new owner about 50p and a packet of organic, fair trade, Quinoa-flavoured crisps
"But, we were quality!"
Journalism of this ilk is always the fine art of writing good clever prose that is ALSO readable, entertaining and accessible - ie popular
There's no point in writing "well" if no one wants to read it: indeed, it means you have not written well
It's like saying "that guy that always gets knocked out at the second round of Wimbledon has one of the best backhand spins I've ever seen". That may or may not be true, but he is certainly not good at tennis
The Spectator has done all 4 things well, the New Statesman has at best done 2 of them.0 -
Off topic, but important. Possibly. This Washington Post analysis of US special elections:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/06/27/democratic-special-election-gains/Among all special elections this year, Democrats have outperformed Kamala Harris’s vote share in 2024 by 13 percentage points, based on Harris-Trump baselines calculated by the Downballot, an election data newsletter. That’s the largest shift toward any party in years. In fact, all but four of the 31 special elections have seen movement toward Democrats.
https://www.the-downballot.com/
If that pattern continues for a year I would change that "Possibly" to "Very probably".1
