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System · June 2013

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour and the economy

That nearly half of all voters (46.8%) believe that Labour “cannot be trusted with the economy”. Less than one-third (30.1%) believe that Labour can be trusted with the nation’s finances.

Read the full story here

HYUFD · June 2013

Prudent move by Balls on ending benefits for wealthy pensioners, something Osborne should have done ages ago. Not so prudent to cut free schools and police commissioners, a genuinely positive Coalition reform

RichardNabavi · June 2013

George Eaton has written three good articles on Balls' speech in the News Statesman (which, incidentally, is a much better journal of the left than the increasingly wretched Guardian). In the latest, he spots another major U-turn ahead:

Balls also signalled that, with growth finally returning, he would soon abandon his expensive pledge to introduce a temporary VAT cut (which Ed Miliband had such trouble defending in his infamous World At One interview)

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/06/balls-sharpens-his-axe-where-labour-would-cut-2015

But the main thing Balls doing is, in Eaton's words: Balls has embarked on a gigantic softening-up exercise [of Labour supporters]. It's a bid to say 'Actually, Osborne was right and we can't reverse any savings, in fact there will be more savings in the next parliament.'

Expect fireworks as the unions and other vested interests get lobbying.

ranier · June 2013

Coming out of long lurk mode..

I swear before the 2010 elections there were a lot of posts about how Cameron/Osborne were less trusted than Brown/Darling, but it didn't matter because at the 1997 election the Conservatives were more trusted than Blair/Brown.

The increase in blame for Labour for cuts is not good for them though.

TGOHF · June 2013

Labour might get some credit for finally admitting they are going to help clean up their mess.

carl · June 2013

Much as I enjoy PB guest Tory slots, it's getting a bit overkill now and I'm looking forward to Mike coming back.

For what it's worth, if voters feel that all parties are crap on the economy (and they do indeed think the Tories are crap) then other issues might become the deciding factor.

And the Tories will be even less keen for "other issues" to be decisive than they are to have their economic record front and centre.

MonikerDiCanio · June 2013

I'm afraid EdM and EdB will forevever be Brown's boys and Brown is a latter day Herbert Hoover.

Sunil_Prasannan · June 2013

Balls by name, Balls by nature?

Fenster · June 2013

I support the move to remove benefits from better-off people. Makes absolute sense.

The wife and me both work and both do okay and we still get (although much reduced) benefits for the kids. God knows why we get handouts when there are people literally starving out there. It's barking.

Also, with regard to Balls being the spawn of Brown. I think Balls will forever be associated with Brown and as a 'Brownite' but he is a much more rounded, clever, mendacious and smart politician than one who will simply dance to the tune of a Brownite core, or the Unions, or anyone for that matter. He shouldn't be underestimated.

He is one politician of few out there who will attempt to make people dance to his tune. A definite signpost of a politician. He spent years being hugely unpopular with many within the Labour party as Brown's guard dog, an outspoken and sometimes rude layer down of the law. He won't worry too much about making more enemies in a bid to win a majority for Labour. The Tories should beware.

As I've said many times before, how Balls squares the circle of cuts and austerity with the demands of the unions (Serwotka and McCluskey particularly) will be crucial to whether or not Labour look ready to run the economy.

HYUFD · June 2013

Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.) has died at the age of 89 of viral pneumonia, The Bergen Record reported Monday, citing the senator’s office.
Lautenberg had struggled with health issues earlier this year, missing more than six weeks in the Senate while in recovery.
Earlier this year, Lautenberg announced that he would not seek reelection.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) will fill the vacant Senate seat.

Neil · June 2013

Fenster said:
how Balls squares the circle of cuts and austerity with the demands of the unions (Serwotka and McCluskey particularly) will be crucial to whether or not Labour look ready to run the economy.

Balls will never get Serwotka onside as Serwotka is a trot. Balls wont have to worry about McCluskey because he will want to beat the Tories as much as Balls does.

HYUFD · June 2013

Michael Bloomberg on why UK lawmakers should back gay marriage
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jun/02/gay-marriage-democracy-equal-rights

HYUFD · June 2013

Obama has abandoned progressive principles, such as stopping drone attacks and shutting down Guantanamo, because he is afraid of being assassinated, telling friends, "Don’t you remember what happened to Martin Luther King Jr.?" retired CIA analyst Ray McGovern said today.

He’s afraid of what happened to Martin Luther King Jr. And I know from a good friend who was there when it happened, that at a small dinner with progressive supporters – after these progressive supporters were banging on Obama before the election, Why don’t you do the things we thought you stood for? Obama turned sharply and said, "Don’t you remember what happened to Martin Luther King Jr.?" That’s a quote, and that’s a very revealing quote.

McGovern spoke on WBAI's show Law and Disorder this morning. He was talking about his recent article calling Obama "a wuss" and speculated that Obama had also placed John Brennan as head of the CIA out of fear that the CIA might turn on him, as it had on John Kennedy.

I’m pretty convinced the President of the United States is afraid of the CIA. That’s why he got John Brennan in place. He thinks John Brennan owes more personal loyalty to him than all those other thugs out there who did the torture and so forth. That’s a questionable thing. But Obama thinks that. And that’s why he fought so hard so that Brennan would be in place.

During his CIA career, Ray McGovern prepared daily briefings for the president and chaired the National Intelligence Estimates. He is now a leading antiwar activist.

MikeK · June 2013

HYUFD said:
Obama has abandoned progressive principles, such as stopping drone attacks and shutting down Guantanamo, because he is afraid of being assassinated, telling friends, "Don’t you remember what happened to Martin Luther King Jr.?" retired CIA analyst Ray McGovern said today.

He’s afraid of what happened to Martin Luther King Jr. And I know from a good friend who was there when it happened, that at a small dinner with progressive supporters – after these progressive supporters were banging on Obama before the election, Why don’t you do the things we thought you stood for? Obama turned sharply and said, "Don’t you remember what happened to Martin Luther King Jr.?" That’s a quote, and that’s a very revealing quote.

McGovern spoke on WBAI's show Law and Disorder this morning. He was talking about his recent article calling Obama "a wuss" and speculated that Obama had also placed John Brennan as head of the CIA out of fear that the CIA might turn on him, as it had on John Kennedy.

I’m pretty convinced the President of the United States is afraid of the CIA. That’s why he got John Brennan in place. He thinks John Brennan owes more personal loyalty to him than all those other thugs out there who did the torture and so forth. That’s a questionable thing. But Obama thinks that. And that’s why he fought so hard so that Brennan would be in place.

During his CIA career, Ray McGovern prepared daily briefings for the president and chaired the National Intelligence Estimates. He is now a leading antiwar activist.

Good report here ofthe declining Obama presence:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324412604578519482313147400.html

Neil · June 2013

The GMB is delighted with Ed's speech:

http://union-news.co.uk/2013/06/gmb-slams-balls-after-shadow-chancellor-swallows-fake-tory-argument-over-austerity/

HYUFD · June 2013

Thanks MikeK, interesting article

Scott_P · June 2013

@TelePolitics: Some advice for @Ed_Miliband from @DPJHodges: Tell the country the truth http://soa.li/af5AxAa

AndyJS · June 2013

Latest UKPollingReport polling average:

Lab 37%
Con 28%
LD 10%

Changes since 2010 GE:

Lab +7.3%
Con -9.0%
LD -13.6%

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Interesting that only a third of the combined Con/LD decline has gone to to Labour.

Morris_Dancer · June 2013

Good evening, everyone.

Even if about half distrust Labour on the economy, they've still got every chance, being the sole nationwide opposition, of getting enough seats to form a majority government. It's undoubtedly an issue for them, though.

john_zims · June 2013

@Tim

'I've told you that for years, the VAT policy will be dropped and focus shifted to housebuilding, growth and benefit reduction in comparison to Osbornes addiction to taxpayer subsidised housing and rent inflation/housing benefit increases'

Osborne's taxpayer funded housing to be replaced by....Balls taxpayer funded housing..
Pure comedy.

Ball's now holds the record for the number of u-turns performed in a day.

surbiton · June 2013

Scott_P said:
@TelePolitics: Some advice for @Ed_Miliband from @DPJHodges: Tell the country the truth http://soa.li/af5AxAa

Some advice to DPJHodges: Shut up !

IOS · June 2013

FPTP and a above 10% UKIP score means Labour can probably nab a majority on 32%.

surbiton · June 2013

Neil said:
The GMB is delighted with Ed's speech:

http://union-news.co.uk/2013/06/gmb-slams-balls-after-shadow-chancellor-swallows-fake-tory-argument-over-austerity/

It will probably help him.

AndyJS · June 2013

"DEAR readers, I am moving to London in July. I'm quite excited about this. Last week I traveled to London with my wife to search for a place to live. We were successful; there is now a lovely little house awaiting us at a rent that is within our budget. But the experience reinforced the absurdity of Britain's ongoing economic doldrums.

London is extraordinarily expensive. It's the kind of expensive where even when you are accustomed to relatively expensive real estate (Washington is not the cheapest place to live) and know that London is far worse you are floored by how expensive it is. To rent a property roughly the same size, quality, and commute distance to work as the one we now occupy in Washington would have meant paying between two and three times as much in rent.

That London is expensive is the sort of thing people tend to take for granted. London property costs a lot, that's how it is, deal with it. But its high cost is actually a direct result of the interplay of supply and demand. Demand to live in London is sky high, for good reason. Weather aside, the consumption amenities in the city are very nearly unrivalled. And the city is also extremely productive, in financial services of course but in other businesses as well. London's cost is down in part to what people are willing to pay to live there. More accurately, the price of living in London rises as high as it must to clear the property market: to make sure that there are only roughly as many people obtaining London property as there is property for them to obtain.

Which brings us to supply. Construction costs in London are higher than in some places but not remarkably so. The marginal unit in London will be in a building that is shorter than the marginal unit in New York, for instance, and taller buildings are more expensive to build. Topographically speaking, London is far, far less constrained than New York or San Francisco. London's big supply problem is almost entirely due to extremely tight land-use restrictions. It's quite simply very difficult to get permission to build."

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/06/london-house-prices

john_zims · June 2013

Lib Dems not impressed with Ball's.

'The Lib Dems have now responded to the Ed Balls speech. This is from Susan Kramer, a Lib Dem Treasury spokesperson.

Three years into this parliament and Labour still has no credible economic policies. Ed Balls’ proposed savings are a drop in the ocean. And he still refuses to acknowledge it was his party’s chronic mismanagement that got us into this mess.

The idea Labour can demonstrate ‘iron discipline’ on spending is laughable. They oppose every cut but refuse to admit what their alternative would amount to – more spending, more borrowing and more debt.'

AndyJS · June 2013

SeanT was telling us the other day how a provincial city like Birmingham could do better but would obviously never be able to rival London.

Amazingly, it turns out Birmingham did rival London in the 1950s:

""Birmingham itself was second only to London for the creation of new jobs between 1951 and 1961. Unemployment in Birmingham between 1948 and 1966 rarely exceeded 1%, and only exceeded 2% in one year. By 1961 household incomes in the West Midlands were 13% above the national average, exceeding even than those of London and the South East."

http://www.economist.com/blogs/blighty/2013/05/birmingham

surbiton · June 2013

tim said:

SeanT said:
If Balls didn't have the backstory he does, he would make an excellent Labour leader: much more ruthless and persuasive than the Milibands (D or E). Also more pubbable.

But he is what he is, Gordon Brown's bag carrier. I doubt he will ever get over this.

Thought you'd be in favor, after all he was opposed to the ERM when Cameron was locked in a cubicle at the treasury working for Lamont and kept Britain out of the Euro.

Anyhow we've seen the divide opening today.

The Tories are going to fight on a low wage-high housing costs-high benefit spend economy.
Labour are going to propose the opposite

Balls also created the 5 tests precisely because all of them could not be passed and UK would stay out of the Euro.

AveryLP · June 2013

Key excerpts from Ed Balls's speech on the UK economy

So today I am going to have to disappoint my opponents and my colleagues.

I am going to disappoint the Tories – we will not set out our plans for 2015-16 this year, however much you want us to, in order to divert political attention from your own abject economic failure.

And you can see the new political game – to set out deep cuts to policing, defence, local government, social care or early years funding or in support for children and the disabled – all for after the General Election – and challenge Labour to make a decision now to reject his plans two years ahead.

We will not play that game – when we do not know the economic circumstances two months ahead, let alone two years.

But that also means I am going to disappoint my Labour colleagues too.

A disappointment all round, by his own admission.

Ed Balls has been totally outmanoeuvred and destroyed by George Osborne.

Time for Ed Miliband to get Darling back in the Shadow Chancellor's seat.

dr_spyn · June 2013

If voters still distrust Labour over the economy, it is because Balls and Ed M were both part of Brown's Treasury team which screwed things up so badly from 2002.

Trying to find evidence of Balls and Ed M defending Prudence is about as rare as finding rocking horseshonet.

AndyJS · June 2013

A MagLev line between London and Birmingham would cut the journey time to about 20 minutes, which would effectively make the place a suburb of the capital. I don't know why the idea doesn't have more support.

surbiton · June 2013

dr_spyn said:
If voters still distrust Labour over the economy, it is because Balls and Ed M were both part of Brown's Treasury team which screwed things up so badly from 2002.

Trying to find evidence of Balls and Ed M defending Prudence is about as rare as finding rocking horseshonet.

Which party was leading on "trust over the economy" on the eve of the 1997 election ?

Which party won ?

AveryLP · June 2013

The only reliable promise made in Ed Balls's speech

So we support the IMF’s call**, consistent with medium-term fiscal consolidation, for the Government to act to boost capital spending over the next two years – financed by a temporary rise in borrowing as Labour has also urged – to build our way to a stronger recovery.

Ed Balls criticises Osborne for not reducing the deficit fast enough.

His remedy.

Borrow more.

His lie: such borrowing will be "temporary".

There has been no change in Labour's position on the economy since Brown splurged "investment" money like there was no tomorrow.

And there nearly was "no tomorrow". National Debt rose by over 500% between 2002 and 2010.

And now Balls is arguing for the same Brownian solutions.

Balls, like his mentor Brown, is yesterday's man.

** Note the IMF called for extra capital spending but not additional government borrowing.

dr_spyn · June 2013

@Surbiton

Labour still trying to pretend that their mistakes from 2002 don't matter today. Still trying to run away from their fiscal incontinence, and still attempting to forget that Balls and Miliband did little to restrain Brown's economic meltdown.

Look at cutting winter fuel payments, a fraction of 1% just to gain a headline.

Morris_Dancer · June 2013

Mr. Ears, I agree. Apart from Mr. Eagles' signal failure to appreciate the genius of Hannibal his stewardship has again been quite splendid.

surbiton · June 2013

AveryLP said:
The only reliable promise made in Ed Balls's speech

So we support the IMF’s call**, consistent with medium-term fiscal consolidation, for the Government to act to boost capital spending over the next two years – financed by a temporary rise in borrowing as Labour has also urged – to build our way to a stronger recovery.

Ed Balls criticises Osborne for not reducing the deficit fast enough.

His remedy.

Borrow more.

His lie: such borrowing will be "temporary".

There has been no change in Labour's position on the economy since Brown splurged "investment" money like there was no tomorrow.

And there nearly was "no tomorrow". National Debt rose by over 500% between 2002 and 2010.

And now Balls is arguing for the same Brownian solutions.

Balls, like his mentor Brown, is yesterday's man.

** Note the IMF called for extra capital spending but not additional government borrowing.

"And there nearly was "no tomorrow". National Debt rose by over 500% between 2002 and 2010".

What was the Debt / GDP ratio in March 2008 ? Was it higher or lower than what the Tories left behind in 1997 ?

WilliamO · June 2013

Most of what Labour have to say on the economy is "A load of Balls!"

Carola · June 2013

AveryLP said:
The only reliable promise made in Ed Balls's speech

So we support the IMF’s call**, consistent with medium-term fiscal consolidation, for the Government to act to boost capital spending over the next two years – financed by a temporary rise in borrowing as Labour has also urged – to build our way to a stronger recovery.

Ed Balls criticises Osborne for not reducing the deficit fast enough.

His remedy.

Borrow more.

His lie: such borrowing will be "temporary".

There has been no change in Labour's position on the economy since Brown splurged "investment" money like there was no tomorrow.

And there nearly was "no tomorrow". National Debt rose by over 500% between 2002 and 2010.

And now Balls is arguing for the same Brownian solutions.

Balls, like his mentor Brown, is yesterday's man.

** Note the IMF called for extra capital spending but not additional government borrowing.

One for you Avery (and Whovians perhaps...):

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/cartoon/

And Matt:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/

JosiasJessop · June 2013

AndyJS said:
A MagLev line between London and Birmingham would cut the journey time to about 20 minutes, which would effectively make the place a suburb of the capital. I don't know why the idea doesn't have more support.

The idea does not have support because the technology is not there for largescale deployment, and will not be in the immediate future. The German test Maglev has shut down and is being demolished several years after causing 23 deaths in an 'impossible' crash. (1)

The longest Maglev currently in use is just 19 miles, in Shanghai. Japan has plans for a long line, but they are going a (very) iterative approach and it is many years before a useful line evolves. Indeed, some planned Maglev lines in China are being re-planned as conventional high-speed rail.

Proponents of the system should ask themselves why, over sixty years after Prof. Laithwaite invented the linear induction motor, Maglevs have not replaced 'ordinary' trains.

(1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lathen_maglev_train_accident

AveryLP · June 2013

surbiton said:

AveryLP said:
The only reliable promise made in Ed Balls's speech

So we support the IMF’s call**, consistent with medium-term fiscal consolidation, for the Government to act to boost capital spending over the next two years – financed by a temporary rise in borrowing as Labour has also urged – to build our way to a stronger recovery.

Ed Balls criticises Osborne for not reducing the deficit fast enough.

His remedy.

Borrow more.

His lie: such borrowing will be "temporary".

There has been no change in Labour's position on the economy since Brown splurged "investment" money like there was no tomorrow.

And there nearly was "no tomorrow". National Debt rose by over 500% between 2002 and 2010.

And now Balls is arguing for the same Brownian solutions.

Balls, like his mentor Brown, is yesterday's man.

** Note the IMF called for extra capital spending but not additional government borrowing.

"And there nearly was "no tomorrow". National Debt rose by over 500% between 2002 and 2010".

What was the Debt / GDP ratio in March 2008 ? Was it higher or lower than what the Tories left behind in 1997 ?

There you go, Surby.

The Public Sector Net Debt to GDP ratio for the years 2002-2012.

       PSND
       %GDP
-----------
2002   29.8
2003   30.9
2004   32.2
2005   33.9
2006   35.1
2007   35.8
2008   43.0
2009  150.4
2010  153.5
2011  149.3
2012  141.2

Gordon Brown managed a 515% increase between 2002 and 2010.
George Osborne managed an 8% decrease in the following two years.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2013

Lib Dem MP Mike Hancock has resigned from the Parliamentary Party, rather than have the whip withdrawn after a disciplinary meeting

TheScreamingEagles · June 2013

Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 28s

Lib Dem statement: "Mike Hancock has chosen to resign the party whip while he defends himself against v serious allegations."

Morris_Dancer · June 2013

Mr. Eagles, is the consensus that a by-election in Hancock's constituency (Plymouth?) is unlikely?

Carola · June 2013

TheScreamingEagles said:
Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 28s

Lib Dem statement: "Mike Hancock has chosen to resign the party whip while he defends himself against v serious allegations."

Making a statement soon apparently.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2013

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Eagles, is the consensus that a by-election in Hancock's constituency (Plymouth?) is unlikely?

Portsmouth, yes, he seems unlikely to resign it.

AveryLP · June 2013

AveryLP said:
surbiton said:

AveryLP said:
The only reliable promise made in Ed Balls's speech

So we support the IMF’s call**, consistent with medium-term fiscal consolidation, for the Government to act to boost capital spending over the next two years – financed by a temporary rise in borrowing as Labour has also urged – to build our way to a stronger recovery.

Ed Balls criticises Osborne for not reducing the deficit fast enough.

His remedy.

Borrow more.

His lie: such borrowing will be "temporary".

There has been no change in Labour's position on the economy since Brown splurged "investment" money like there was no tomorrow.

And there nearly was "no tomorrow". National Debt rose by over 500% between 2002 and 2010.

And now Balls is arguing for the same Brownian solutions.

Balls, like his mentor Brown, is yesterday's man.

** Note the IMF called for extra capital spending but not additional government borrowing.

"And there nearly was "no tomorrow". National Debt rose by over 500% between 2002 and 2010".

What was the Debt / GDP ratio in March 2008 ? Was it higher or lower than what the Tories left behind in 1997 ?

There you go, Surby.

The Public Sector Net Debt to GDP ratio for the years 1997-2012.
       PSND
       %GDP
-----------
1997   42.1
1998   40.4
1999   38.2
2000   35.7
2001   30.8
2002   29.8
2003   30.9
2004   32.2
2005   33.9
2006   35.1
2007   35.8
2008   43.0
2009  150.4
2010  153.5
2011  149.3
2012  141.2
Gordon Brown managed a 515% increase between 2002 and 2010.
George Osborne managed an 8% decrease in the following two years.

Surby

My apologies.

The answer to your specific question about PSND:GDP % in 1997 is that it was 42.1%, 27.4% of Gordon's masterful achievement at the end of his term in office.

Edit: Updated the table for you.

Morris_Dancer · June 2013

Cheers. Is it me, or have we had tons of by-elections this Parliament?

TheScreamingEagles · June 2013

Morris_Dancer said:
Cheers. Is it me, or have we had tons of by-elections this Parliament?

I think we've had several interesting by-elections this parliament.

Carola · June 2013

Letters:

http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/79453/mike_hancock_resigns_liberal_democrat_whip.html

TheScreamingEagles · June 2013

Hancock letters

http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/79453/mike_hancock_resigns_liberal_democrat_whip.html

TheScreamingEagles · June 2013

Carola said:

AveryLP said:
The only reliable promise made in Ed Balls's speech

So we support the IMF’s call**, consistent with medium-term fiscal consolidation, for the Government to act to boost capital spending over the next two years – financed by a temporary rise in borrowing as Labour has also urged – to build our way to a stronger recovery.

Ed Balls criticises Osborne for not reducing the deficit fast enough.

His remedy.

Borrow more.

His lie: such borrowing will be "temporary".

There has been no change in Labour's position on the economy since Brown splurged "investment" money like there was no tomorrow.

And there nearly was "no tomorrow". National Debt rose by over 500% between 2002 and 2010.

And now Balls is arguing for the same Brownian solutions.

Balls, like his mentor Brown, is yesterday's man.

** Note the IMF called for extra capital spending but not additional government borrowing.

One for you Avery (and Whovians perhaps...):

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/cartoon/

And Matt:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/

Well that first cartoon is silly, Ed Balls as popular as the Fourth Doctor?

Unlikely.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2013

Bloody Southerners, ruining the North, I've spent far too much time at the science musuem

Manchester’s most popular visitor attraction could close in order to keep the London Science Museum open.

The Museum of Science and Industry (Mosi) – which welcomes thousands of families each year – could be shut down under plans being considered by the national Science Museum Group.

The shocking announcement also puts in jeopardy the National Media Museum in Bradford and the National Rail Museum in York.

The three northern visitor attractions, which are all part of the London-based museum group, have been put on the chopping block because of funding cuts.

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/manchesters-museum-science-industry-faces-4044896

Carola · June 2013

'Mike Hancock 'has chosen to resign from the party'. Right. And my name is Olaf von Cobblers' shippers

TheWatcher · June 2013

SeanT said:

JosiasJessop said:

AndyJS said:
A MagLev line between London and Birmingham would cut the journey time to about 20 minutes, which would effectively make the place a suburb of the capital. I don't know why the idea doesn't have more support.
The idea does not have support because the technology is not there for largescale deployment, and will not be in the immediate future. The German test Maglev has shut down and is being demolished several years after causing 23 deaths in an 'impossible' crash. (1)

The longest Maglev currently in use is just 19 miles, in Shanghai. Japan has plans for a long line, but they are going a (very) iterative approach and it is many years before a useful line evolves. Indeed, some planned Maglev lines in China are being re-planned as conventional high-speed rail.

Proponents of the system should ask themselves why, over sixty years after Prof. Laithwaite invented the linear induction motor, Maglevs have not replaced 'ordinary' trains.

(1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lathen_maglev_train_accident
Yet there is something to be said for it.

The more I travel, the more I realise that Britain's comparative smallness is actually a significant advantage. This relatively tiny island, off the northwest coast of Europe, has everything you want within a day's drive of everywhere else, MAXIMUM, and much of it is way way closer together than that.

e.g. our greatest universities, London, Oxford, and Cambridge, are all within less than 100 miles of each other. Contrast Harvard, UCLA, Yale, UT.

Our capital city is the diplomatic, political, financial, cultural, religious, retail, media, artistic metropolis for the whole nation. Contrast with Germany, where everything is scattered - Frankfurt, Berlin, Hamburg, Munich.

And so on and so forth. Britain is exquisitely easy to get around BECAUSE IT IS SO SMALL. Even Japan seems tediously big, in comparison.

Now factor in Maglev trains or something similar. The entire country could become one big prosperous Surrey to the mighty engine of wealth that is London, as people are able to commute from Brum in 20 minutes and Glasgow in 90. Result!

I guess the worry is that people will then be able to commute from Nice in 100 minutes, but hey.

Maglev? No thanks.

All those Northern burglars heading south for the richer pickings of the Home Counties.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2013

Carola said:
'Mike Hancock 'has chosen to resign from the party'. Right. And my name is Olaf von Cobblers' shippers

Isn't it one of those irregular verbs.

I have chosen to resign

He was sacked.

They were fired.

MikeK · June 2013

A word from Farage:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jun/03/ukip-clean-up-lobbying

TheScreamingEagles · June 2013

MikeK said:
A word from Farage:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jun/03/ukip-clean-up-lobbying

UKIP are the last party to talk about cleaning up politics.

TheWatcher · June 2013

tim said:
I wonder why Cameron is so desperate to avoid a recall bill

And if he'd announced one, you'd be posting non-stop variations of 'panicked responses', 'redfaces' and 'ill thought out legislation from the clueless posh boys'.

'Dr' Clarke's lost your Mojo since his series of unfortunate apologies.

JosiasJessop · June 2013

SeanT said:

JosiasJessop said:

AndyJS said:
A MagLev line between London and Birmingham would cut the journey time to about 20 minutes, which would effectively make the place a suburb of the capital. I don't know why the idea doesn't have more support.
The idea does not have support because the technology is not there for largescale deployment, and will not be in the immediate future. The German test Maglev has shut down and is being demolished several years after causing 23 deaths in an 'impossible' crash. (1)

The longest Maglev currently in use is just 19 miles, in Shanghai. Japan has plans for a long line, but they are going a (very) iterative approach and it is many years before a useful line evolves. Indeed, some planned Maglev lines in China are being re-planned as conventional high-speed rail.

Proponents of the system should ask themselves why, over sixty years after Prof. Laithwaite invented the linear induction motor, Maglevs have not replaced 'ordinary' trains.

(1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lathen_maglev_train_accident
Yet there is something to be said for it.

The more I travel, the more I realise that Britain's comparative smallness is actually a significant advantage. This relatively tiny island, off the northwest coast of Europe, has everything you want within a day's drive of everywhere else, MAXIMUM, and much of it is way way closer together than that.

e.g. our greatest universities, London, Oxford, and Cambridge, are all within less than 100 miles of each other. Contrast Harvard, UCLA, Yale, UT.

Our capital city is the diplomatic, political, financial, cultural, religious, retail, media, artistic metropolis for the whole nation. Contrast with Germany, where everything is scattered - Frankfurt, Berlin, Hamburg, Munich.

And so on and so forth. Britain is exquisitely easy to get around BECAUSE IT IS SO SMALL. Even Japan seems tediously big, in comparison.

Now factor in Maglev trains or something similar. The entire country could become one big prosperous Surrey to the mighty engine of wealth that is London, as people are able to commute from Brum in 20 minutes and Glasgow in 90. Result!

I guess the worry is that people will then be able to commute from Nice in 100 minutes, but hey.

Oh, I'd love them to be practical, in the same way I'd love production fusion reactors to be available in the next five years, or spaceplanes to allow London->Sydney in a couple of hours. All of these are theoretically possible; but the theory is simple compared to the engineering to do them.

Sadly, the above are waiting for new advances in engineering, particularly materials engineering (which is a little-acknowledged area of science that is of massive importance to society).

Perversely, Britain's smallness acts against high-speed transport projects. On a 1,000 km line, doubling maximum speed from 100 km/h to 200 km/h saves about five hours. On a 200km line it saves just one hour. Cost/benefit ratios and the like count against shorter lines.

We also have massive problems starting even absolute no-brainer projects, like reinstating the Oxford to Cambridge railway line to connect the two university cities. Everyone wants it, but progress is glacially slow.

I have yet to discover the reason why Maglev construction is not going ahead. It must be down to cost; the tracks are far more expensive than conventional high-speed rail, but running costs are alleged to be cheaper. So why are they not being built?

(As I've mentioned on here before, my dad's company built parts of the civ eng of the first ever Maglev track at British Rail Engineering in Derby).

Bobajob · June 2013

Never mind EU referendums, Avery's inane numerical soup and TSE's Doctor Who fetish. WHY DOES THIS SITE STILL NOT WORK? I have to reset my password every day and I can't even read part of Sean's post below because it is blocked by an ad, floating in the middle of nowhere, seemingly permanently affixed to the word 'commute'.

This is the new normal on here.

MrJones · June 2013

MikeK said:
A word from Farage:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jun/03/ukip-clean-up-lobbying

Didn't the Cameroons mention a recall law once upon a time? If they'd actually done it and it was used to get rid of Mercer, Handycock etc Cameron would have got some brownie points.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2013

Bobajob said:
Never mind EU referendums, Avery's inane numerical soup and TSE's Doctor Who fetish. WHY DOES THIS SITE STILL NOT WORK? I have to reset my password every day and I can't even read part of Sean's post below because it is blocked by an ad, floating in the middle of nowhere, seemingly permanently affixed to the word 'commute'.

This is the new normal on here.

Are you viewing the site on an iPhone or iPad?

Charles · June 2013

No answer yet from tim, I see.

tim: why is it right that the the "soft money" support that the unions give to Labour not be counted towards the overall cap on election spending?

GeoffM · June 2013

MrJones said:
Didn't the Cameroons mention a recall law once upon a time?

Indeed. Not only was it specifically included in the coalition agreement, but a draft bill was put forward on 13 December 2011. It was abandoned in committee June 2012.

parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN05089

Neil · June 2013

Bless Peter Hain - an mp for all of New Labour's term and he still thinks Labour was a party of universal benefits. Wasnt he even Pensions Secretary for a time?

MrJones · June 2013

GeoffM said:

MrJones said:
Didn't the Cameroons mention a recall law once upon a time?
Indeed. Not only was it specifically included in the coalition agreement, but a draft bill was put forward on 13 December 2011. It was abandoned in committee June 2012.

parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN05089

They're so rotten it's a wonder they don't collapse in a high wind.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2013

MyBurningEars said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Isn't it one of those irregular verbs.

I have chosen to resign

He was sacked.

They were fired.

Isn't it:

"I have chosen to resign.

You jumped before you were pushed.

He was fired."

Craig Brown is a master of the irregular verb, he definitely uses 1st, 2nd and 3rd person singular, and tries to keep a significant shade-of-meaning's difference between the 2nd and 3rd person forms.

Yes Minister did it best

It's one of those irregular verbs, isn't it: I have an independent mind; you are an eccentric; he is round the twist.

and

I give confidential press briefings; you leak; he's being charged under section 2A of the Official Secrets Act.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2013

Neil said:
Bless Peter Hain - an mp for all of New Labour's term and he still thinks Labour was a party of universal benefits. Wasnt he even Pensions Secretary for a time?

I thought he was Secretary of State for looking liked a newly creosoted fence?

hunchman · June 2013

Hunchman has been in deep hibernation recently.

As for Mr Balls - £100 million of so called cuts, well with the government borrowing £330 million everyday, that's enough to sort out a wonderful 7 hours of borroing! Go back to the drawing board sir! Newsnight now LOL!!!!

The Turkey riots are fascinating - it seems to be mainly liberal, mainly secular and mainly middle class. All the libertarians of the world unite! Much less reported were the riots in Stockholm last week and riots in Switzerland of all places - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHHRzayNdw4 If we're getting riots in Switzerland, that shows what a bind the whole of Europe is in. Makes our riots in 2011 look pretty feeble by comparison. Note how the Beeb, Sky and all the mass media were wholly absent in reporting all of this - its an absolute scandal if you ask me.

As for the financial markets, things are getting decidedly interesting. I'm on board with these comments: http://www.pretzelcharts.com/2013/06/spx-update-theres-breakdown-what-next.html I think its a nasty shakeout on US markets before one final move higher now into late July. Japan and the Nikkei are not so far off being officially in a bear market - already down around 18% from the 16,000 high. As the old saying goes, bull markets take the steps up, bear markets take the escalator down. We're finally seeing much increased volatility in the government bond market - 5 year yields have alread gone from around 0.13% to nearly 0.5% and 10 year yields have risen from a low of 0.43% up to around 0.9% - it doesn't sound much at all, but these are massive movements in such a short time. I still think Japan will be alright for a short time yet, USDJPY seems to have confirmed a top in the 103 area which was higher than I was looking for around the 101 area, and now we should finally get a decent retracement. Howver, when the next leg starts up, everyone should watch out because it should be much stronger than the first leg up from the 77 area up to 103, and it should be one of the opportunities of a lifetime to hitch a ride aboard. On the US markets, I expected the 1597 area on the S&P to hold, but once that went, it was signalling a move into the high 1600's (indeed 1687 happened), and I still think we may have a trip into the low 1720's eventually for the final top.

Everything continues to build for the greatest ever financial crisis: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-03/18-signs-massive-economic-problems-are-erupting-everywhere ... but I still think we've got to wait until late July / early August before the greatest implosion of them all can finally occur. Funnily enough I was talking to some friends over the past week and told them that the Cypriot stockmarket topped out at 5,500 in late 2007, and asked them how low it had sunk recently. 1,000 they typically said first......lower......500? ...... lower..........200?.......lower.....100....no, it put in a bottom at 83...and that might not be the last. That would be the equivalent of the FTSE trading around 110, or the Dow trading around 250. That would be a rather different world wouldn't it?!

Bobajob · June 2013

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bobajob said:
Never mind EU referendums, Avery's inane numerical soup and TSE's Doctor Who fetish. WHY DOES THIS SITE STILL NOT WORK? I have to reset my password every day and I can't even read part of Sean's post below because it is blocked by an ad, floating in the middle of nowhere, seemingly permanently affixed to the word 'commute'.

This is the new normal on here.
Are you viewing the site on an iPhone or iPad?

iPhone. I still have the reset problem on the desktop though, just not the visual soup.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2013

Bobajob said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bobajob said:
Never mind EU referendums, Avery's inane numerical soup and TSE's Doctor Who fetish. WHY DOES THIS SITE STILL NOT WORK? I have to reset my password every day and I can't even read part of Sean's post below because it is blocked by an ad, floating in the middle of nowhere, seemingly permanently affixed to the word 'commute'.

This is the new normal on here.
Are you viewing the site on an iPhone or iPad?
iPhone. I still have the reset problem on the desktop though, just not the visual soup.

There's a definite occasional issue for those of using apple devices.

I've flagged an issue with vanilla, I'm hoping for a reply soon

AndreaParma_82 · June 2013

UKIP MEP Derek Clark (East Midlands) to stand down next year. Not particularly surprising given he was born in 1933.

Robert_Eve · June 2013

Labour can be trusted on nothing at all.

MrJones · June 2013

hunchman said:
Hunchman has been in deep hibernation recently.

As for Mr Balls - £100 million of so called cuts, well with the government borrowing £330 million everyday, that's enough to sort out a wonderful 7 hours of borroing! Go back to the drawing board sir! Newsnight now LOL!!!!

The Turkey riots are fascinating - it seems to be mainly liberal, mainly secular and mainly middle class. All the libertarians of the world unite! Much less reported were the riots in Stockholm last week and riots in Switzerland of all places - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHHRzayNdw4 If we're getting riots in Switzerland, that shows what a bind the whole of Europe is in. Makes our riots in 2011 look pretty feeble by comparison. Note how the Beeb, Sky and all the mass media were wholly absent in reporting all of this - its an absolute scandal if you ask me.

As for the financial markets, things are getting decidedly interesting. I'm on board with these comments: http://www.pretzelcharts.com/2013/06/spx-update-theres-breakdown-what-next.html I think its a nasty shakeout on US markets before one final move higher now into late July. Japan and the Nikkei are not so far off being officially in a bear market - already down around 18% from the 16,000 high. As the old saying goes, bull markets take the steps up, bear markets take the escalator down. We're finally seeing much increased volatility in the government bond market - 5 year yields have alread gone from around 0.13% to nearly 0.5% and 10 year yields have risen from a low of 0.43% up to around 0.9% - it doesn't sound much at all, but these are massive movements in such a short time. I still think Japan will be alright for a short time yet, USDJPY seems to have confirmed a top in the 103 area which was higher than I was looking for around the 101 area, and now we should finally get a decent retracement. Howver, when the next leg starts up, everyone should watch out because it should be much stronger than the first leg up from the 77 area up to 103, and it should be one of the opportunities of a lifetime to hitch a ride aboard. On the US markets, I expected the 1597 area on the S&P to hold, but once that went, it was signalling a move into the high 1600's (indeed 1687 happened), and I still think we may have a trip into the low 1720's eventually for the final top.

Everything continues to build for the greatest ever financial crisis: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-03/18-signs-massive-economic-problems-are-erupting-everywhere ... but I still think we've got to wait until late July / early August before the greatest implosion of them all can finally occur. Funnily enough I was talking to some friends over the past week and told them that the Cypriot stockmarket topped out at 5,500 in late 2007, and asked them how low it had sunk recently. 1,000 they typically said first......lower......500? ...... lower..........200?.......lower.....100....no, it put in a bottom at 83...and that might not be the last. That would be the equivalent of the FTSE trading around 110, or the Dow trading around 250. That would be a rather different world wouldn't it?!

Blimey. Read about the Swedish riots online but not a peep about the Swiss ones.

hunchman · June 2013

3 great articles currently on Mish's website:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/

The best one in my opinion is: "The International Monetary Fund lamented Friday that Swedish households pay their mortgages so slowly that they are planning to do an average of 140 years."

Scandinavian banks have the highest loan to deposit ratios in the world - some are pushing on towards 200%. These are just simply staggering numbers - if anyone still believes that all that mortgage debt is ever going to be paid off, then they're as likely to believe that my beloved Crewe Alexandra will win the premiership in the next 5 years. Pigs do indeed fly it seems!

another_richard · June 2013

Having just watch Ramsey's Kitchen Nightmares USA I turned over and saw a few minutes of Paxman v Balls.

I don't know which was the more pitiful display.

Is Ed Balls really the best Labour can find ?

He makes Osborne look likeable and competant.

AndyJS · June 2013

Surrey local election results by division:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDFXbHNnZDBoSTJfWEZVYVRMOUJZeUE#gid=0

hunchman · June 2013

"Blimey. Read about the Swedish riots online but not a peep about the Swiss ones. "

It just goes to show in my opinion how good Russia Today are. And they gave Sunil and me another great gift - Max Keiser and On the Edge.

SquareRoot · June 2013

@tim

How much of what was in Labour Manifesto's 1997-2010 was not implemented or if implemented failed to work? How much was not in the manifestos that was implemented and failed to work?.

You have a fixation about Manifesto's, if you held your own party to account to the same degree... one might have some sympathy.

RichardNabavi · June 2013

tim said:
The Funding for Lending Scheme and Help to Buy scheme are among the stupidest policies ever devised in Whitehall

http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/amol-rajan-george-osborne-is-playing-a-low-political-trick-with-housing-8642043.html

Ah yes, I saw that article in the printed edition.

I rather lost interest at the author's policy suggestion, worthy of a demented four-year old: "Forcibly deport all nimbys".

Bobajob · June 2013

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bobajob said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bobajob said:
Never mind EU referendums, Avery's inane numerical soup and TSE's Doctor Who fetish. WHY DOES THIS SITE STILL NOT WORK? I have to reset my password every day and I can't even read part of Sean's post below because it is blocked by an ad, floating in the middle of nowhere, seemingly permanently affixed to the word 'commute'.

This is the new normal on here.
Are you viewing the site on an iPhone or iPad?
iPhone. I still have the reset problem on the desktop though, just not the visual soup.
There's a definite occasional issue for those of using apple devices.

I've flagged an issue with vanilla, I'm hoping for a reply soon

Thanks TSE - your reply very much appreciated.

Neil · June 2013

hunchman said:
And they gave Sunil and me another great gift - Max Keiser and On the Edge.

Sometimes I worry that you dont always watch him for the comedy value though

SquareRoot · June 2013

@Another Richard

If you are predisposed to watching Ramsay's Kitchen Nightmares USA, I suggest you seek help at the earliest possible opportunity

hunchman · June 2013

From making quite a lot of visits to friends of all ages around different parts of the country over the past month, I've found it fascinating to hear other people's take on our current predicament. One strong impression I come away with is how the older generation (55+) still rely on the mainstream print media - none of the friends of my age (late 30's) or lower would dream of going out any buying a paper! Cue a wonderfully bright future for the print media! Talking to people of my own age, I've found far more disparate opinions - I guess its mainly a function of the online media sites that you tend to read and then they reinforce your opinion. Its still good to read online websites with a completely different polemic from your own - Krugman is a good one for me, and some of the hyperinflationists out there.

hunchman · June 2013

Neil said:

hunchman said:
And they gave Sunil and me another great gift - Max Keiser and On the Edge.
Sometimes I worry that you dont always watch him for the comedy value though

That's the great thing about Keiser and his sidekick Ms Herbert - they combine hilarious comedy moments, with a deadly underlying serious message - it takes a special talent to be able to do both those things simultaneously!

isam · June 2013

More common sense from ukip

http://www.warringtonguardian.co.uk/yoursay/letters/10442253.Payday_loan_ad_should_be_removed/

hunchman · June 2013

isam said:
More common sense from ukip

http://www.warringtonguardian.co.uk/yoursay/letters/10442253.Payday_loan_ad_should_be_removed/

I had a text message from a payday loan company encouraging me to consolidate all my loans into 1 repayment - needless to say I've never been remotely near any of them! This whole scatter gun texting approach should be banned, and companies banged to rights if found adopting such an approach. The PPI industry has been a terrible offender in that regard. Is there the equivalent of a TPS service for unwanted mobile phone calls?

another_richard · June 2013

SquareRoot said:
@Another Richard

If you are predisposed to watching Ramsay's Kitchen Nightmares USA, I suggest you seek help at the earliest possible opportunity

I only watch it because its so dredfully fake.

I guess I'm displaying postmodern irony in watching it, or something equally pretentious.

Neil · June 2013

@hunchman

Whenever I tune into RT it always makes me think about whether the UK has minimum standards for "news" output and how on earth RT can be meeting them.

Sunil_Prasannan · June 2013

hunchman said:

Neil said:

hunchman said:
And they gave Sunil and me another great gift - Max Keiser and On the Edge.
Sometimes I worry that you dont always watch him for the comedy value though
That's the great thing about Keiser and his sidekick Ms Herbert - they combine hilarious comedy moments, with a deadly underlying serious message - it takes a special talent to be able to do both those things simultaneously!

Hello hunchman - always entertaining, but Stacey is more than just a side-kick, they were married late last year!

hunchman · June 2013

Neil said:
@hunchman

Whenever I tune into RT it always makes me think about whether the UK has minimum standards for "news" output and how on earth RT can be meeting them.

RT is unconventional, and not afraid to broach controversy, in a way that the Beeb, Sky, CNN etc could never do. Lauren Lyster with Capital Account was also great on there, until she got poached by Yahoo finance.

hunchman · June 2013

Sunil_Prasannan said:

hunchman said:

Neil said:

hunchman said:
And they gave Sunil and me another great gift - Max Keiser and On the Edge.
Sometimes I worry that you dont always watch him for the comedy value though
That's the great thing about Keiser and his sidekick Ms Herbert - they combine hilarious comedy moments, with a deadly underlying serious message - it takes a special talent to be able to do both those things simultaneously!
Hello hunchman - always entertaining, but Stacey is more than just a side-kick, they were married late last year!

You're quite right Sunil - I doff my cap to Mrs Stacey Keiser! Freudian slip me calling her Ms Herbert still!!!!

Sunil_Prasannan · June 2013

Neil said:
@hunchman

Whenever I tune into RT it always makes me think about whether the UK has minimum standards for "news" output and how on earth RT can be meeting them.

RT or RTE?

AndyJS · June 2013

This is a fantastic YouTube channel which I strongly recommend to all PBers:

http://www.youtube.com/user/SunilP2?feature=watch

Sunil_Prasannan · June 2013

hunchman said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

hunchman said:

Neil said:

hunchman said:
And they gave Sunil and me another great gift - Max Keiser and On the Edge.
Sometimes I worry that you dont always watch him for the comedy value though
That's the great thing about Keiser and his sidekick Ms Herbert - they combine hilarious comedy moments, with a deadly underlying serious message - it takes a special talent to be able to do both those things simultaneously!
Hello hunchman - always entertaining, but Stacey is more than just a side-kick, they were married late last year!
You're quite right Sunil - I doff my cap to Mrs Stacey Keiser! Freudian slip me calling her Ms Herbert still!!!!

Well Max still calls her Stacey Herbert, so you're not alone!!

Sunil_Prasannan · June 2013

AndyJS said:
This is a fantastic YouTube channel which I strongly recommend to all PBers:

http://www.youtube.com/user/SunilP2?feature=watch

Glad you liked it!

RodCrosby · June 2013

Obtaining some interesting results with (10,000) Monte Carlo simulations from the PM approval model...

Taking the median three-month PM adjusted approval (47.8%) we have:-

Central forecast
Tory Popular Vote lead 2.3% (implied swing 2.5% to Labour)
Labour seat lead 22 seats

Chance Tories will lead in votes 99.1%
Chance Tories will lead in seats 12.4%

Chance of Labour majority (LDs 40 seats) 0.5%
Chance of Labour majority (LDs 30 seats) 2.1%
Chance of Tory majority (LDs 40 seats) 0.0%
Chance of Tory majority (LDs 30 seats) 0.03%

Chance of a Hung Parliament >97%

RodCrosby · June 2013

I'd say two years from an election that is not a bad place for the Tories to be?

Stickytroll · June 2013

hunchman said:
Hunchman has been in deep hibernation recently.

Some interesting links there...

So major disruption due to the US economy in the next 40 days? How do you see this affecting the forex markets?

AndyJS · June 2013

Kent local election results by division:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEdfWWk3NnlpeHpmbHZxcVlnSzZwMlE#gid=0

Votes cast (using highest vote in multi-member divisions):

Con: 117,444 (36.23%)
UKIP: 85,475 (26.37%)
Lab: 65,018 (20.06%)
LD: 31,710 (9.78%)
Green: 12,714 (3.92%)
Ind: 3,894 (1.20%)
Others: 7,901 (2.44%)

Total: 324,156
Electorate: 1,091,972
Turnout: 29.69%

AndyJS · June 2013

@Rod

What do you think the chances are of the Tories winning the popular vote and Labour the most seats? I would guess the answer is: very high indeed.

I suppose a more interesting question might be to split the above scenario into (a) Labour winning a majority of seats and (b) Labour not winning the most seats — (ie. both with the Tories still ahead in the popular vote).

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