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FINALLY! – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,294

    For some time, I have been wondering whether most of Jeffrey Epstein's victims did not have fathers in their lives. That seems likely to me, but I have seen no direct evidence on that possibility.

    This excellent header reminds me that I have the same question about the victims in this scandal. Is there any publicly available data on the victims that would answer that question?

    (When I was growing up, there was story often told -- and it probably did happen in the US occasionally -- about a first date: The boy comes in and has a talk with the girl's father, while waiting for the girl. Not coincidentally, the father was cleaning his hand gun, while waiting for the boy.)

    Anyone doing so in the UK would be a criminal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,294
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1934612755824206221

    According to WSJ, Iran is sending signals that it wants to de-escalate hostilities and that it's open to further negotiations, as long as the US doesn't enter the conflict directly

    I bet it does. The Israelis have total air superiority.

    Any negotiations should be on the Iranian terms of surrender, including the complete and total removal of all nuclear activities (including civilian power) from the country.

    They can't be trusted with any form of nukes anymore.
    (narrator: "total air superiority" is a bit like saying "total partial". Barty should have said "air supremacy". Following SEAD strikes on Iran, Israel currently owns the skies over Iran. That will not remain true for long but right now they can bomb at their leisure. Iran can deploy flak but this is not WW2 and the range is not enough)
    Why do you say it will not remain true for long?
    It is a mistake often made in warfare that if something is destroyed it stays destroyed. This is not the case. The afflicted army frantically tries to repair or replace it. Because in this case the initial strikes were so brutal, this will take them some time. But after some weeks/months they will eventually be replaced.

    In Russia/Ukraine, the Russians tried and failed to do SEAD. In Israel/Iran, the Israelis succeeded. We should observe both cases and learn lessons.
    There remains the possibility that Iran (assuming the regime doesn't fall, or is replaced by one equally antipathetic to Israel/the West) ends up replacing its kit with Chinese weapons.
    Which are fairly likely to be a lot more effective at defending airspace than is the Russian stuff.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,574
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    "Experts don't understand me" is a weird one. Experts in what? And understand me, personally? How would I even know if an expert understood me or not? Feels like a stupid question put in to create a bullshit narrative. "Seven in ten Britons see experts as elitist and out of touch, a SHOCKING new survey reveals, as the Daily Mail launches its campaign to burn down the universities and hang everyone with an advanced degree from lampposts."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,294

    Taz said:

    Trumps new initiative. Trump mobile.

    Phones made in the USA too.

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1934585873435070474?s=61

    My prediction, the phones will be available in only one colour, gold.
    Good news - it is gold.

    Bad news - the new scheme is managed by Trump's sons.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,140
    edited June 16
    Cyclefree said:

    Just popped in here. Does anyone have the reference in Mullins' diaries? I have a copy of them but the index in the relevant volume doesn't mention child / sex abuse allegations and his entries for 2003 take up almost a hundred pages.

    I've got A View From the Foothills on kindle. What are we looking for? Searching for the word "sex" finds only a Prescott malapropism and the sexed-up dossier.
    Search for Ann Cryer.
    Wednesday 30 January 2002
    Wednesday 21 January 2004
    Tuesday 21 September 2004
    Friday 6 May 2005

    ETA so not 2003 which @david_herdson mentioned. I did add the years myself because the publisher couldn't be bothered.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,748

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    "Experts don't understand me" is a weird one. Experts in what? And understand me, personally? How would I even know if an expert understood me or not? Feels like a stupid question put in to create a bullshit narrative. "Seven in ten Britons see experts as elitist and out of touch, a SHOCKING new survey reveals, as the Daily Mail launches its campaign to burn down the universities and hang everyone with an advanced degree from lampposts."
    It's news to me that we have experts.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,522
    Absolute Pandoras box in the Casey Report. Journalists will now start combing for figures and stats.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,584

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    "Experts don't understand me" is a weird one. Experts in what? And understand me, personally? How would I even know if an expert understood me or not? Feels like a stupid question put in to create a bullshit narrative. "Seven in ten Britons see experts as elitist and out of touch, a SHOCKING new survey reveals, as the Daily Mail launches its campaign to burn down the universities and hang everyone with an advanced degree from lampposts."
    Those all look like very loaded questions. We all love a moan, and these are a great opportunity to moan.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,877
    @Daniel_Sugarman

    Iran’s state-controlled TV network (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting - IRIB) has just been struck by Israel as it was broadcasting live.

    https://x.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1934630420353585353
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,561
    Nigelb said:
    What evidence do you have that they are? Putin ignores Trump. Zelenskyy plays with him but doesn’t comply. Europe, including the UK , has stepped up. No one is interested in what Trump thinks on either side. He’s not just incompetent, he’s irrelevant.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,658

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    "Experts don't understand me" is a weird one. Experts in what? And understand me, personally? How would I even know if an expert understood me or not? Feels like a stupid question put in to create a bullshit narrative. "Seven in ten Britons see experts as elitist and out of touch, a SHOCKING new survey reveals, as the Daily Mail launches its campaign to burn down the universities and hang everyone with an advanced degree from lampposts."
    Experts in general. Bit of a tautology.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,445
    I've just spotted that the Tory to Reform UK defections continue up here in the NE. The Tories have now lost 6 councillors to FarageCo.

    Apparently RefUK is *the* hot political ticket. Apparently.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,522
    Minister for safeguarding seems to still be in place.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,736

    Nigelb said:
    You cannot support both Ukraine and Trump.
    Greta Thunberg-level analysis.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,445

    Absolute Pandoras box in the Casey Report. Journalists will now start combing for figures and stats.

    Interesting that the Casey report notes the shameful failure of Labour ministers in the Home Office to require the police to record ethnicity data in the 16 years since grooming was first adopted as a definition in 2009. Shame on Labour's police ministers like Chris Philip in not doing their jobs! Happily we now have Tory shadows like Chris Philip to point the finger and expose this.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,003
    Scott_xP said:

    @Daniel_Sugarman

    Iran’s state-controlled TV network (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting - IRIB) has just been struck by Israel as it was broadcasting live.

    https://x.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1934630420353585353

    I feel like I've seen exactly that scene in multiple COD games. Wild.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,658
    "Bonnie Blue banned from adult video site OnlyFans after violating terms of use
    The site decided the viral internet star had gone too far with her latest stunt"

    https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/local-news/bonnie-blue-banned-adult-video-10267321
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,056
    Trump wants Russia back at the G7/G8. Jesus wept.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,009

    Taz said:

    Trumps new initiative. Trump mobile.

    Phones made in the USA too.

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1934585873435070474?s=61

    Impossible. I believe there was some Patriot Mobile or something like that that marketed to MAGA types over the past few years with similar claims. Of course they are just cheap old left over stock Chinese Android phones.

    "By Made"...I presume they will mean taking them out of one box and putting them in another.

    And like Tesco Mobile or Sky Mobile, the wireless carrier will actually be an established player that they are renting capacity from.
    Possibly kit from China, exempt from tariffs natch, assembled in a screwdriver plant.

    Like Dr Who fans, some MAGA fans are mugs who’d buy anything with the brand on.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,548

    Trump wants Russia back at the G7/G8. Jesus wept.

    G6 then.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,721
    Trump really embarrassing Carney

    I cannot watch
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,736
    There are some reports that Israel has been using Afghan mercenaries inside Iran.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,877

    Trump really embarrassing Carney

    I cannot watch

    Trump really embarrassing

    Shilling for Putin
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,877
    @atrupar.com‬

    "Let me exercise my role as G7 chair" -- Carney steps in to stop Trump from taking more questions

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lrqdd2amuu2t
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,658
    edited June 16
    There was someone on the P Prune thread on the Air India Crash who was really getting on my nerves, because he kept posting comments like "Isn't it weird that someone actually filmed this particular plane taking off." Has he never heard of plane spotters? They film pretty much every take-off from an airport, and I'm sure they exist in India as much as elsewhere.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,445
    Andy_JS said:

    "Bonnie Blue banned from adult video site OnlyFans after violating terms of use
    The site decided the viral internet star had gone too far with her latest stunt"

    https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/local-news/bonnie-blue-banned-adult-video-10267321



    "With a Melon???"
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,893
    I’d just like to congratulate me on my incredible restraint
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,009
    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,658

    Trump really embarrassing Carney

    I cannot watch

    What happened? Tried to find out myself just now without success.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,522
    Leon said:

    I’d just like to congratulate me on my incredible restraint

    Im biting my tongue as best I can lest a tirade pour forth
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,170
    Leon said:

    I’d just like to congratulate me on my incredible restraint

    Indeed. Though as you say, there's no need to you (or me) to talk about the subject now as it finally has the whole country's attention and as I said the only thing I will say about the subject is I hope that all of the victims get justice.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,721
    Andy_JS said:

    Trump really embarrassing Carney

    I cannot watch

    What happened? Tried to find out myself just now without success.
    Live on Sky earlier and Carney looked as if he wanted to be anywhere other than beside Trump
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,893
    edited June 16
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    I’d just like to congratulate me on my incredible restraint

    Indeed. Though as you say, there's no need to you (or me) to talk about the subject now as it finally has the whole country's attention and as I said the only thing I will say about the subject is I hope that all of the victims get justice.
    I was clearly referring to my inhuman ability to resist a visit to the Faroes National Museum of Medieval Pew Ends, which is literally only a 40 minute walk away in the rain from where I’m having a coffee
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,522

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump really embarrassing Carney

    I cannot watch

    What happened? Tried to find out myself just now without success.
    Live on Sky earlier and Carney looked as if he wanted to be anywhere other than beside Trump
    Carney can always put his elbows up though
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,721

    Absolute Pandoras box in the Casey Report. Journalists will now start combing for figures and stats.

    Interesting that the Casey report notes the shameful failure of Labour ministers in the Home Office to require the police to record ethnicity data in the 16 years since grooming was first adopted as a definition in 2009. Shame on Labour's police ministers like Chris Philip in not doing their jobs! Happily we now have Tory shadows like Chris Philip to point the finger and expose this.
    You do know the Jay report was published in 2022 in the midst of covid

    Hardly 14 years or 16
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,893
    The video of the Iranian newswoman in a studio getting bombed live on-air is quite something
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,170
    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
    Eventually the money will run out for those well paid retirements and public sector pensions will get a 50% haircut over a certain amount.

    Our medium term outlook to me definitely screams Argentina. It's taken them 80 years to get to the point of people being fed up enough to vote a radical reformer into power who has finally tackled the entitlement issue and cut the size of the state as well as subsidies and benefits. Inflation now down to 1.5% last month, forwards annual rate predicted to be under 20% for the coming year and there's talk about a local currency bond sale next year if inflation continues to fall.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,009
    Andy_JS said:

    "Bonnie Blue banned from adult video site OnlyFans after violating terms of use
    The site decided the viral internet star had gone too far with her latest stunt"

    https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/local-news/bonnie-blue-banned-adult-video-10267321

    I saw some idiot TikToker crying outside their HQ as she had been banned from the site, wanting to be let back on.

    She had encouraged a homeless woman, who couldn’t swim, to jump in a lake and then ran off when she did refusing to give her any money.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,996

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump really embarrassing Carney

    I cannot watch

    What happened? Tried to find out myself just now without success.
    Live on Sky earlier and Carney looked as if he wanted to be anywhere other than beside Trump
    I would have thought that applied to many people. Hands up who would like to stand beside Trump!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,445

    Absolute Pandoras box in the Casey Report. Journalists will now start combing for figures and stats.

    Interesting that the Casey report notes the shameful failure of Labour ministers in the Home Office to require the police to record ethnicity data in the 16 years since grooming was first adopted as a definition in 2009. Shame on Labour's police ministers like Chris Philip in not doing their jobs! Happily we now have Tory shadows like Chris Philip to point the finger and expose this.
    You do know the Jay report was published in 2022 in the midst of covid

    Hardly 14 years or 16
    So the Home Office needed the Jay report to tell them to collect data?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,877
    The guy is a moron

    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump with Mark Carney: "The G7 used to be the G8. Barack Obama and a person named Trudeau didn't want to have Russia in, and I would say that was a mistake, because I think you wouldn't have a war right now if you had Russia in."
  • eekeek Posts: 30,303

    Selebian said:

    Chatting to a colleague, just become aware of another tax cliff-edge.

    His wife isn't currently working (they have small children) and they'd taken advantage of a married couple's partial tax allowance transfer (apparently someone earning under the personal allowance can transfer about 10% of their allowance - so about £1200? - to spouse, but only if spouse is a basic rate tax payer). His pay, after salary sacrifice for pension and cycle to work went, last year, about £100 over the threshold for moving into higher rate. That £100 got taxed at 40% + NI and he lost the extra £1200 or so of transferred personal allowance, so got taxed an extra £240 or so (20%).

    Someone moving from the threshold to £100 above (I'm not sure how far below threshold he was before - I assume he's still taking home more than he was the year before - but the point was that if he lost £100 of taxable salary through AVCs etc he'd get more take home pay) would have a marginal tax rate of 280% or so, ignoring NI. Presumably it kicks in if you get a £1 pay rise over the threshold, giving a marginal rate of ~24000%.

    All from a brief conversation over a cuppa, so it may be specifics are wrong.

    An easy way round all this rubbish. Tax everything at the same rate.
    Don’t true to be clever - the easiest way is to keep your income (after salary sacrifice pension) well below £100,000 to avoid the unexpected
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,346
    Leon said:

    The video of the Iranian newswoman in a studio getting bombed live on-air is quite something

    It is, but it's hardly a valuable cog in the nuclear bomb-making programme in Iran.

    Not sure what the Israeli strategy is now. They don't have the weapons to take out the nuclear facility under the mountain, so they can't finish the job they've started. Putin's told Trump not to do it for them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,736
    Scott_xP said:

    The guy is a moron

    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump with Mark Carney: "The G7 used to be the G8. Barack Obama and a person named Trudeau didn't want to have Russia in, and I would say that was a mistake, because I think you wouldn't have a war right now if you had Russia in."

    Translation: he has an opinion I disagree with.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,522
    edited June 16

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump really embarrassing Carney

    I cannot watch

    What happened? Tried to find out myself just now without success.
    Live on Sky earlier and Carney looked as if he wanted to be anywhere other than beside Trump
    I would have thought that applied to many people. Hands up who would like to stand beside Trump!
    I don't expect he's got anything catching so I'll stand next to him
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,561
    So far I have read the foreword, the executive summary and her personal note. Punchy, especially the last of these.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,721

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump really embarrassing Carney

    I cannot watch

    What happened? Tried to find out myself just now without success.
    Live on Sky earlier and Carney looked as if he wanted to be anywhere other than beside Trump
    I would have thought that applied to many people. Hands up who would like to stand beside Trump!
    I do wonder why anyone wants to be in his presence
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,996

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump really embarrassing Carney

    I cannot watch

    What happened? Tried to find out myself just now without success.
    Live on Sky earlier and Carney looked as if he wanted to be anywhere other than beside Trump
    I would have thought that applied to many people. Hands up who would like to stand beside Trump!
    I don't expect he's got anything catching so I'll stand next to him
    Have you had all your vaccinations?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,346
    The Ukrainians are saying that the Russians have handed over dead Russian soldiers to Ukraine in the latest exchange that was supposed to be to return each other's dead to slow for burial.

    Incompetence, or the latest tactic to hide Russian deaths from the Russian people?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,699
    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
    Eventually the money will run out for those well paid retirements and public sector pensions will get a 50% haircut over a certain amount.

    Our medium term outlook to me definitely screams Argentina. It's taken them 80 years to get to the point of people being fed up enough to vote a radical reformer into power who has finally tackled the entitlement issue and cut the size of the state as well as subsidies and benefits. Inflation now down to 1.5% last month, forwards annual rate predicted to be under 20% for the coming year and there's talk about a local currency bond sale next year if inflation continues to fall.
    All very dramatic and you might enjoy it but we all know it won't happen like that.

    We could raise basic rate now to 25p and h,igher rate to 50p (unfreezing thresholds at the same time). Public sector pensions (which seem a particular bugbear) are taxed whereas state pensions are not. There is a suggestion we should means test entitlement to a basic State pension - not a bad idea though the reaction to that would make the response to removing the Winter Fuel Allowance seem nothing.

    Do those who have already benefitted from generous public and indeed private sector pensions really need the state pension as well? It's a thought.

    It's quite clear there's not going to be a pot of gold at the end of the DOGE rainbow.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,522

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump really embarrassing Carney

    I cannot watch

    What happened? Tried to find out myself just now without success.
    Live on Sky earlier and Carney looked as if he wanted to be anywhere other than beside Trump
    I would have thought that applied to many people. Hands up who would like to stand beside Trump!
    I don't expect he's got anything catching so I'll stand next to him
    Have you had all your vaccinations?
    No comment!
    Tbh there's others at the G7 id much less rather be anywhere near
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,968

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump really embarrassing Carney

    I cannot watch

    What happened? Tried to find out myself just now without success.
    Live on Sky earlier and Carney looked as if he wanted to be anywhere other than beside Trump
    I would have thought that applied to many people. Hands up who would like to stand beside Trump!
    I don't expect he's got anything catching so I'll stand next to him
    Just don’t take your pussy with you.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,337
    DavidL said:

    So far I have read the foreword, the executive summary and her personal note. Punchy, especially the last of these.
    A quick scroll through suggests she has no truck for the "per capita is dishonest framing" narrative popular in certain quarters on PB in recent days.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,877

    Scott_xP said:

    The guy is a moron

    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump with Mark Carney: "The G7 used to be the G8. Barack Obama and a person named Trudeau didn't want to have Russia in, and I would say that was a mistake, because I think you wouldn't have a war right now if you had Russia in."

    Translation: he has an opinion I disagree with.
    I know you're a troll, but read the post again and try and figure out why you're just as big a moron as Trump.

    Here's a clue " I think you wouldn't have a war right now if you had Russia in"

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,140
    The formulation "victims and survivors" is starting to jar.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,736
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The guy is a moron

    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump with Mark Carney: "The G7 used to be the G8. Barack Obama and a person named Trudeau didn't want to have Russia in, and I would say that was a mistake, because I think you wouldn't have a war right now if you had Russia in."

    Translation: he has an opinion I disagree with.
    I know you're a troll, but read the post again and try and figure out why you're just as big a moron as Trump.

    Here's a clue " I think you wouldn't have a war right now if you had Russia in"

    Why do you think that's not just wrong but moronic? In the initial period after the end of the Cold War it was US policy to prevent the Soviet Union from breaking up.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,699
    Afternoon all :)

    So how does Israel-Iran end? What does the end of hostilities look like? Does Israel go on until it has fully denuded Iran's ability to wage war against it but no further? What then?

    What stops the cycle of build up and renewed aerial assault happening again? Very little unless you can achieve something more permanent which some think will come from regime change in Tehran?

    The destabilisation of that part of Southwest Asia is not without consequences for Russia, Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan to name but four let alone the west (and China's) own well-documented vulnerability to the transport of oil through Hormuz.

    I suppose you could argue an Iranian "surrender" would represent a commitment to end all nuclear weapons research and development and hand over or agree to the supervised removal and/or destruction of all facilities. There would need, I think, to be a concomitant pledge from all sides to respect Iranian independence and sovereignty and not to involve themselves in internal Iranian matters.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,170
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
    Eventually the money will run out for those well paid retirements and public sector pensions will get a 50% haircut over a certain amount.

    Our medium term outlook to me definitely screams Argentina. It's taken them 80 years to get to the point of people being fed up enough to vote a radical reformer into power who has finally tackled the entitlement issue and cut the size of the state as well as subsidies and benefits. Inflation now down to 1.5% last month, forwards annual rate predicted to be under 20% for the coming year and there's talk about a local currency bond sale next year if inflation continues to fall.
    All very dramatic and you might enjoy it but we all know it won't happen like that.

    We could raise basic rate now to 25p and h,igher rate to 50p (unfreezing thresholds at the same time). Public sector pensions (which seem a particular bugbear) are taxed whereas state pensions are not. There is a suggestion we should means test entitlement to a basic State pension - not a bad idea though the reaction to that would make the response to removing the Winter Fuel Allowance seem nothing.

    Do those who have already benefitted from generous public and indeed private sector pensions really need the state pension as well? It's a thought.

    It's quite clear there's not going to be a pot of gold at the end of the DOGE rainbow.
    And what does putting up tax to 25% and 50%(!) do for the working age population other than drive them to the exit door? I've been looking at what I might do now that my year off is rapidly coming to an end and we've got a third kid on the way, the 50% mark has always been the psychological red line for me. Why should I go to work only for the state to take half of my productivity and piss it up the wall of the public sector.

    No we need to cut benefit entitlements, public sector pensions above a certain size and as I've told you many times at least 1m public sector roles need to go. We're into the negative productivity per worker/pound side of the equation for the state and more money and more workers isn't going to result in better services provision, it will likely get worse. The answer is higher output per worker.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,033
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    I’d just like to congratulate me on my incredible restraint

    Indeed. Though as you say, there's no need to you (or me) to talk about the subject now as it finally has the whole country's attention and as I said the only thing I will say about the subject is I hope that all of the victims get justice.
    I was clearly referring to my inhuman ability to resist a visit to the Faroes National Museum of Medieval Pew Ends, which is literally only a 40 minute walk away in the rain from where I’m having a coffee
    Saw some lovely medieval pew ends in Beverley (the church, not the minster) earlier this year.

    But, imagine, Faroese ones! Carvings of trolls, warlocks? You really might be missing something. Get on down.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,762
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
    Eventually the money will run out for those well paid retirements and public sector pensions will get a 50% haircut over a certain amount.

    Our medium term outlook to me definitely screams Argentina. It's taken them 80 years to get to the point of people being fed up enough to vote a radical reformer into power who has finally tackled the entitlement issue and cut the size of the state as well as subsidies and benefits. Inflation now down to 1.5% last month, forwards annual rate predicted to be under 20% for the coming year and there's talk about a local currency bond sale next year if inflation continues to fall.
    All very dramatic and you might enjoy it but we all know it won't happen like that.

    We could raise basic rate now to 25p and h,igher rate to 50p (unfreezing thresholds at the same time). Public sector pensions (which seem a particular bugbear) are taxed whereas state pensions are not. There is a suggestion we should means test entitlement to a basic State pension - not a bad idea though the reaction to that would make the response to removing the Winter Fuel Allowance seem nothing.

    Do those who have already benefitted from generous public and indeed private sector pensions really need the state pension as well? It's a thought.

    It's quite clear there's not going to be a pot of gold at the end of the DOGE rainbow.
    State pensions are taxable, and are about to go over the tax free allowance.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,736
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The guy is a moron

    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump with Mark Carney: "The G7 used to be the G8. Barack Obama and a person named Trudeau didn't want to have Russia in, and I would say that was a mistake, because I think you wouldn't have a war right now if you had Russia in."

    Translation: he has an opinion I disagree with.
    I know you're a troll, but read the post again and try and figure out why you're just as big a moron as Trump.

    Here's a clue " I think you wouldn't have a war right now if you had Russia in"

    Why do you think that's not just wrong but moronic? In the initial period after the end of the Cold War it was US policy to prevent the Soviet Union from breaking up.
    It defies basic logic

    Event A happened (Russia invaded Ukraine)

    As a result of event A, event B happened. (Russia kicked out of G8)

    Trump says maybe A would not have happened if B didn't happen.

    Fucking moron.
    Most people distinguish the full scale invasion from the annexation of Crimea and DNR/LNR incursion.

    Trump is basically saying that we should have prioritised maintaining good relations with Russia over maintaining the territorial integrity of Ukraine. You might find that point of view abhorrent but it doesn't make him a moron.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,522
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    So how does Israel-Iran end? What does the end of hostilities look like? Does Israel go on until it has fully denuded Iran's ability to wage war against it but no further? What then?

    What stops the cycle of build up and renewed aerial assault happening again? Very little unless you can achieve something more permanent which some think will come from regime change in Tehran?

    The destabilisation of that part of Southwest Asia is not without consequences for Russia, Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan to name but four let alone the west (and China's) own well-documented vulnerability to the transport of oil through Hormuz.

    I suppose you could argue an Iranian "surrender" would represent a commitment to end all nuclear weapons research and development and hand over or agree to the supervised removal and/or destruction of all facilities. There would need, I think, to be a concomitant pledge from all sides to respect Iranian independence and sovereignty and not to involve themselves in internal Iranian matters.

    Israel is unlikely to accept anything less than the complete abandonment of Irans domestic nuclear programme as well and will want to see regime change, probably trying to force this by military action before the former is pushed as the price for peace. Ayatollah Iran ending is the only way to the Greater Israel project
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,445
    Iran has waged proxy war against Israel for decades. The notion that Israel is the aggressor is deluded at best. Of course Tehran wants to cut a deal, its having its arse handed to it. If you were Israel why would you want to stop now?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,762
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
    Eventually the money will run out for those well paid retirements and public sector pensions will get a 50% haircut over a certain amount.

    Our medium term outlook to me definitely screams Argentina. It's taken them 80 years to get to the point of people being fed up enough to vote a radical reformer into power who has finally tackled the entitlement issue and cut the size of the state as well as subsidies and benefits. Inflation now down to 1.5% last month, forwards annual rate predicted to be under 20% for the coming year and there's talk about a local currency bond sale next year if inflation continues to fall.
    All very dramatic and you might enjoy it but we all know it won't happen like that.

    We could raise basic rate now to 25p and h,igher rate to 50p (unfreezing thresholds at the same time). Public sector pensions (which seem a particular bugbear) are taxed whereas state pensions are not. There is a suggestion we should means test entitlement to a basic State pension - not a bad idea though the reaction to that would make the response to removing the Winter Fuel Allowance seem nothing.

    Do those who have already benefitted from generous public and indeed private sector pensions really need the state pension as well? It's a thought.

    It's quite clear there's not going to be a pot of gold at the end of the DOGE rainbow.
    A lot of people retire below state pension age and use the lump sum to take them through to state pension age. It's hard to argue they "don't need it" and changing the rules in retrospect would be odious.

    You should also, presumably, refund their NI contributions
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,727
    Who said life gets dull when you retire. Yesterday a crowd of us went to watch a school friend go up in a Spitfire to celebrate his 70th birthday and today I started my male modelling career. Apparently I was fabulous. 🤮
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,170

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
    Eventually the money will run out for those well paid retirements and public sector pensions will get a 50% haircut over a certain amount.

    Our medium term outlook to me definitely screams Argentina. It's taken them 80 years to get to the point of people being fed up enough to vote a radical reformer into power who has finally tackled the entitlement issue and cut the size of the state as well as subsidies and benefits. Inflation now down to 1.5% last month, forwards annual rate predicted to be under 20% for the coming year and there's talk about a local currency bond sale next year if inflation continues to fall.
    All very dramatic and you might enjoy it but we all know it won't happen like that.

    We could raise basic rate now to 25p and h,igher rate to 50p (unfreezing thresholds at the same time). Public sector pensions (which seem a particular bugbear) are taxed whereas state pensions are not. There is a suggestion we should means test entitlement to a basic State pension - not a bad idea though the reaction to that would make the response to removing the Winter Fuel Allowance seem nothing.

    Do those who have already benefitted from generous public and indeed private sector pensions really need the state pension as well? It's a thought.

    It's quite clear there's not going to be a pot of gold at the end of the DOGE rainbow.
    A lot of people retire below state pension age and use the lump sum to take them through to state pension age. It's hard to argue they "don't need it" and changing the rules in retrospect would be odious.

    You should also, presumably, refund their NI contributions
    Early retirement is a choice.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,699
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
    Eventually the money will run out for those well paid retirements and public sector pensions will get a 50% haircut over a certain amount.

    Our medium term outlook to me definitely screams Argentina. It's taken them 80 years to get to the point of people being fed up enough to vote a radical reformer into power who has finally tackled the entitlement issue and cut the size of the state as well as subsidies and benefits. Inflation now down to 1.5% last month, forwards annual rate predicted to be under 20% for the coming year and there's talk about a local currency bond sale next year if inflation continues to fall.
    All very dramatic and you might enjoy it but we all know it won't happen like that.

    We could raise basic rate now to 25p and h,igher rate to 50p (unfreezing thresholds at the same time). Public sector pensions (which seem a particular bugbear) are taxed whereas state pensions are not. There is a suggestion we should means test entitlement to a basic State pension - not a bad idea though the reaction to that would make the response to removing the Winter Fuel Allowance seem nothing.

    Do those who have already benefitted from generous public and indeed private sector pensions really need the state pension as well? It's a thought.

    It's quite clear there's not going to be a pot of gold at the end of the DOGE rainbow.
    And what does putting up tax to 25% and 50%(!) do for the working age population other than drive them to the exit door? I've been looking at what I might do now that my year off is rapidly coming to an end and we've got a third kid on the way, the 50% mark has always been the psychological red line for me. Why should I go to work only for the state to take half of my productivity and piss it up the wall of the public sector.

    No we need to cut benefit entitlements, public sector pensions above a certain size and as I've told you many times at least 1m public sector roles need to go. We're into the negative productivity per worker/pound side of the equation for the state and more money and more workers isn't going to result in better services provision, it will likely get worse. The answer is higher output per worker.
    I'm not sure what you mean by "piss it up the wall" of the public sector? You may not be one of those who thinks "the public sector" (and I don't know what you mean by that - central Government, local Government, the NHS, the Police, Fire, Ambulance, the Armed Forces?) is value for money but many rely on it on a daily basis.

    You've not explained what "above a certain size" means either - if you mean the pensions paid to CEOs of Councils or Permanent Secretaries you may have a point but if you want to get after those much further down the food chain, then no.

    Local Government has lost one million jobs since 2012 - there aren't that many civil servants in the conventional sense. Do you mean going after the NHS, the newly nationalised railways or what?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,658
    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    It's absolutely bonkers that my relatively well-off parents are probably going to get winter fuel payment again. Just one example.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,968

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The guy is a moron

    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump with Mark Carney: "The G7 used to be the G8. Barack Obama and a person named Trudeau didn't want to have Russia in, and I would say that was a mistake, because I think you wouldn't have a war right now if you had Russia in."

    Translation: he has an opinion I disagree with.
    I know you're a troll, but read the post again and try and figure out why you're just as big a moron as Trump.

    Here's a clue " I think you wouldn't have a war right now if you had Russia in"

    Why do you think that's not just wrong but moronic? In the initial period after the end of the Cold War it was US policy to prevent the Soviet Union from breaking up.
    It defies basic logic

    Event A happened (Russia invaded Ukraine)

    As a result of event A, event B happened. (Russia kicked out of G8)

    Trump says maybe A would not have happened if B didn't happen.

    Fucking moron.
    Most people distinguish the full scale invasion from the annexation of Crimea and DNR/LNR incursion.

    Trump is basically saying that we should have prioritised maintaining good relations with Russia over maintaining the territorial integrity of Ukraine. You might find that point of view abhorrent but it doesn't make him a moron.
    ‘but it doesn't make him a moron’

    Yeah, it’s all the other stuff that does.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,546
    edited June 16
    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
    Eventually the money will run out for those well paid retirements and public sector pensions will get a 50% haircut over a certain amount.

    Our medium term outlook to me definitely screams Argentina. It's taken them 80 years to get to the point of people being fed up enough to vote a radical reformer into power who has finally tackled the entitlement issue and cut the size of the state as well as subsidies and benefits. Inflation now down to 1.5% last month, forwards annual rate predicted to be under 20% for the coming year and there's talk about a local currency bond sale next year if inflation continues to fall.
    We need a new social contract, fundamentally.

    What that means (to me - and I have to accept it won’t be the same for everyone) is:

    - a restructuring of the tax system to eliminate NI and move to broadly income-related elements.
    - To remove other financial penalties to work and to advancement (including smoothing cliff edges)
    - To tax property-derived wealth more innovatively.
    - To remove vast swathes of legislation and legal duties to enable the state to be more efficient, subject to more rigorous and more regular principles-based oversight.
    - To look at how public services and the welfare state operates and whether the model in 2025 should really look the same as the model from 50-100 years ago.
    - Reform the immigration and asylum system.
    - Properly fund justice and law enforcement, and simplify the criminal code.

    This is all stuff I would like to think can be done via popular consent (though my thinking may be somewhat wishful), so long as people are supported with incentives along the way and brought on a journey. I am not suggesting it is pain free, and I am not suggesting that the way there would be easy or would not create winners or losers (any reform does). But at the end of it is hope you’d get a society that works for more people, and is fundamentally more secure in itself.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,713

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
    Eventually the money will run out for those well paid retirements and public sector pensions will get a 50% haircut over a certain amount.

    Our medium term outlook to me definitely screams Argentina. It's taken them 80 years to get to the point of people being fed up enough to vote a radical reformer into power who has finally tackled the entitlement issue and cut the size of the state as well as subsidies and benefits. Inflation now down to 1.5% last month, forwards annual rate predicted to be under 20% for the coming year and there's talk about a local currency bond sale next year if inflation continues to fall.
    All very dramatic and you might enjoy it but we all know it won't happen like that.

    We could raise basic rate now to 25p and h,igher rate to 50p (unfreezing thresholds at the same time). Public sector pensions (which seem a particular bugbear) are taxed whereas state pensions are not. There is a suggestion we should means test entitlement to a basic State pension - not a bad idea though the reaction to that would make the response to removing the Winter Fuel Allowance seem nothing.

    Do those who have already benefitted from generous public and indeed private sector pensions really need the state pension as well? It's a thought.

    It's quite clear there's not going to be a pot of gold at the end of the DOGE rainbow.
    A lot of people retire below state pension age and use the lump sum to take them through to state pension age. It's hard to argue they "don't need it" and changing the rules in retrospect would be odious.

    You should also, presumably, refund their NI contributions
    That’s essentially what I did. Being able to take a lump sum from age 55 was very helpful
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,893

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    I’d just like to congratulate me on my incredible restraint

    Indeed. Though as you say, there's no need to you (or me) to talk about the subject now as it finally has the whole country's attention and as I said the only thing I will say about the subject is I hope that all of the victims get justice.
    I was clearly referring to my inhuman ability to resist a visit to the Faroes National Museum of Medieval Pew Ends, which is literally only a 40 minute walk away in the rain from where I’m having a coffee
    Saw some lovely medieval pew ends in Beverley (the church, not the minster) earlier this year.

    But, imagine, Faroese ones! Carvings of trolls, warlocks? You really might be missing something. Get on down.
    In all seriousness I tried. I love me a medieval pew end. Who doesn’t? But the Faroese decided to put their national museum on the outskirts of town in a weirdly disguised bunker next to a Lidl depot and it’s not findable on Google maps. And it’s only open about 3 hours a day (so about 2.5 hours longer than the national liquor store)

    So I’ve missed it and I fly home tomorrow early

    But I don’t care. I’ve seen all the rest of Faroes. I’ve had an absolute blast. It’s a fucking miserable place with terrible weather and surprisingly great food and insanely brooding landscapes and kind, friendly, mildly autistic people

    On Saturdays women gather on the main steps of the centre of the capital city - Thorshavn - and they… knit. Literally. That’s the big thing in the capital on weekends. Public knitting

    Superb


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,705

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump really embarrassing Carney

    I cannot watch

    What happened? Tried to find out myself just now without success.
    Live on Sky earlier and Carney looked as if he wanted to be anywhere other than beside Trump
    I would have thought that applied to many people. Hands up who would like to stand beside Trump!
    It's pathetic how his latest moronities are constantly reported as 'news.' I'm hoping (doubtless in vain) this starts to tail off as it dawns on people that it's all self-mythologising bullshit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,713
    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    It's absolutely bonkers that my relatively well-off parents are probably going to get winter fuel payment again. Just one example.
    It is, and they’ve set the threshold way high, to avoid further political damage. My guess is that it will be frozen and they then allow inflation to do the work.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,699
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
    Eventually the money will run out for those well paid retirements and public sector pensions will get a 50% haircut over a certain amount.

    Our medium term outlook to me definitely screams Argentina. It's taken them 80 years to get to the point of people being fed up enough to vote a radical reformer into power who has finally tackled the entitlement issue and cut the size of the state as well as subsidies and benefits. Inflation now down to 1.5% last month, forwards annual rate predicted to be under 20% for the coming year and there's talk about a local currency bond sale next year if inflation continues to fall.
    All very dramatic and you might enjoy it but we all know it won't happen like that.

    We could raise basic rate now to 25p and h,igher rate to 50p (unfreezing thresholds at the same time). Public sector pensions (which seem a particular bugbear) are taxed whereas state pensions are not. There is a suggestion we should means test entitlement to a basic State pension - not a bad idea though the reaction to that would make the response to removing the Winter Fuel Allowance seem nothing.

    Do those who have already benefitted from generous public and indeed private sector pensions really need the state pension as well? It's a thought.

    It's quite clear there's not going to be a pot of gold at the end of the DOGE rainbow.
    A lot of people retire below state pension age and use the lump sum to take them through to state pension age. It's hard to argue they "don't need it" and changing the rules in retrospect would be odious.

    You should also, presumably, refund their NI contributions
    Early retirement is a choice.
    I'm not the one arguing for a 50% "haircut" to public sector pensions (though that should include private sector pensions as well).

    Indeed, in the Local Government Pensions Scheme, there are already considerable penalties to those who do leave early - my recollection is your final benefits are reduced by 25% if you leave five years before your die retirement date.

    What that leads to is place-sitting as older staff sit round waiting for their retirement and accumulating their benefits preventing younger staff coming into the organisation and progressing.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,658
    "Grooming report says authorities were in 'denial' about ethnicity of gangs"

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-spending-review-rachel-reeves-labour-keir-starmer-12593360
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,762
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
    Eventually the money will run out for those well paid retirements and public sector pensions will get a 50% haircut over a certain amount.

    Our medium term outlook to me definitely screams Argentina. It's taken them 80 years to get to the point of people being fed up enough to vote a radical reformer into power who has finally tackled the entitlement issue and cut the size of the state as well as subsidies and benefits. Inflation now down to 1.5% last month, forwards annual rate predicted to be under 20% for the coming year and there's talk about a local currency bond sale next year if inflation continues to fall.
    All very dramatic and you might enjoy it but we all know it won't happen like that.

    We could raise basic rate now to 25p and h,igher rate to 50p (unfreezing thresholds at the same time). Public sector pensions (which seem a particular bugbear) are taxed whereas state pensions are not. There is a suggestion we should means test entitlement to a basic State pension - not a bad idea though the reaction to that would make the response to removing the Winter Fuel Allowance seem nothing.

    Do those who have already benefitted from generous public and indeed private sector pensions really need the state pension as well? It's a thought.

    It's quite clear there's not going to be a pot of gold at the end of the DOGE rainbow.
    A lot of people retire below state pension age and use the lump sum to take them through to state pension age. It's hard to argue they "don't need it" and changing the rules in retrospect would be odious.

    You should also, presumably, refund their NI contributions
    Early retirement is a choice.
    It is for most people (although some people have do so so through ill health) but you do your financial planning based on what you entitled to. I front-end loaded what I took from my occupational pension based on the idea I am going to get another £900 a month in 6-7 years time. You can't just suddenly take that away from people
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,346
    edited June 16
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    I’d just like to congratulate me on my incredible restraint

    Indeed. Though as you say, there's no need to you (or me) to talk about the subject now as it finally has the whole country's attention and as I said the only thing I will say about the subject is I hope that all of the victims get justice.
    I was clearly referring to my inhuman ability to resist a visit to the Faroes National Museum of Medieval Pew Ends, which is literally only a 40 minute walk away in the rain from where I’m having a coffee
    Saw some lovely medieval pew ends in Beverley (the church, not the minster) earlier this year.

    But, imagine, Faroese ones! Carvings of trolls, warlocks? You really might be missing something. Get on down.
    In all seriousness I tried. I love me a medieval pew end. Who doesn’t? But the Faroese decided to put their national museum on the outskirts of town in a weirdly disguised bunker next to a Lidl depot and it’s not findable on Google maps. And it’s only open about 3 hours a day (so about 2.5 hours longer than the national liquor store)

    So I’ve missed it and I fly home tomorrow early

    But I don’t care. I’ve seen all the rest of Faroes. I’ve had an absolute blast. It’s a fucking miserable place with terrible weather and surprisingly great food and insanely brooding landscapes and kind, friendly, mildly autistic people

    On Saturdays women gather on the main steps of the centre of the capital city - Thorshavn - and they… knit. Literally. That’s the big thing in the capital on weekends. Public knitting

    Superb


    Saturday was international knit in public day.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Wide_Knit_in_Public_Day
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,705
    kjh said:

    Who said life gets dull when you retire. Yesterday a crowd of us went to watch a school friend go up in a Spitfire to celebrate his 70th birthday and today I started my male modelling career. Apparently I was fabulous. 🤮

    Cashmere cardies?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,968
    Speaking of morons..

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1934631842621382925?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    How many different internal deranged voices are there per capita in people called Trump?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,170
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
    Eventually the money will run out for those well paid retirements and public sector pensions will get a 50% haircut over a certain amount.

    Our medium term outlook to me definitely screams Argentina. It's taken them 80 years to get to the point of people being fed up enough to vote a radical reformer into power who has finally tackled the entitlement issue and cut the size of the state as well as subsidies and benefits. Inflation now down to 1.5% last month, forwards annual rate predicted to be under 20% for the coming year and there's talk about a local currency bond sale next year if inflation continues to fall.
    All very dramatic and you might enjoy it but we all know it won't happen like that.

    We could raise basic rate now to 25p and h,igher rate to 50p (unfreezing thresholds at the same time). Public sector pensions (which seem a particular bugbear) are taxed whereas state pensions are not. There is a suggestion we should means test entitlement to a basic State pension - not a bad idea though the reaction to that would make the response to removing the Winter Fuel Allowance seem nothing.

    Do those who have already benefitted from generous public and indeed private sector pensions really need the state pension as well? It's a thought.

    It's quite clear there's not going to be a pot of gold at the end of the DOGE rainbow.
    And what does putting up tax to 25% and 50%(!) do for the working age population other than drive them to the exit door? I've been looking at what I might do now that my year off is rapidly coming to an end and we've got a third kid on the way, the 50% mark has always been the psychological red line for me. Why should I go to work only for the state to take half of my productivity and piss it up the wall of the public sector.

    No we need to cut benefit entitlements, public sector pensions above a certain size and as I've told you many times at least 1m public sector roles need to go. We're into the negative productivity per worker/pound side of the equation for the state and more money and more workers isn't going to result in better services provision, it will likely get worse. The answer is higher output per worker.
    I'm not sure what you mean by "piss it up the wall" of the public sector? You may not be one of those who thinks "the public sector" (and I don't know what you mean by that - central Government, local Government, the NHS, the Police, Fire, Ambulance, the Armed Forces?) is value for money but many rely on it on a daily basis.

    You've not explained what "above a certain size" means either - if you mean the pensions paid to CEOs of Councils or Permanent Secretaries you may have a point but if you want to get after those much further down the food chain, then no.

    Local Government has lost one million jobs since 2012 - there aren't that many civil servants in the conventional sense. Do you mean going after the NHS, the newly nationalised railways or what?
    Isn't that the problem though, we have far too many people relying on it on a daily basis, whether that's for their salary or benefits. It's becoming a self perpetuating mess of a system where a small proportion of very active users take up the resource making it poor value for money. Instead of giving these lazy benefit cheats a kick up the arse the state just enables them by handing them freebie houses and cars because they're "mentally ill" and have "anxiety".

    Cut the entitlements, cut the waste, cut a million public sector jobs and push through a 50% haircut for defined benefit pensions above £30k per year (so a £50k DB pension becomes a £40k one, a £70k one becomes a £50k one etc...)

    I also don't care where the job losses come from but the NHS seems like a good place to start and I'd also ban agency staffing and severely limit consultant usage, give each department and trust a limited number of consultant days per year (maybe 20) and push them into SAAS usage which has a very fast time to value rather than on-prem custom build solutions that need swathes of consultants and contractors to build something no one will ever know how to maintain once they're all gone.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,294
    edited June 16

    Nigelb said:
    You cannot support both Ukraine and Trump.
    Greta Thunberg-level analysis.
    And yours, Trump level.




    Eric.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,009

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
    Eventually the money will run out for those well paid retirements and public sector pensions will get a 50% haircut over a certain amount.

    Our medium term outlook to me definitely screams Argentina. It's taken them 80 years to get to the point of people being fed up enough to vote a radical reformer into power who has finally tackled the entitlement issue and cut the size of the state as well as subsidies and benefits. Inflation now down to 1.5% last month, forwards annual rate predicted to be under 20% for the coming year and there's talk about a local currency bond sale next year if inflation continues to fall.
    All very dramatic and you might enjoy it but we all know it won't happen like that.

    We could raise basic rate now to 25p and h,igher rate to 50p (unfreezing thresholds at the same time). Public sector pensions (which seem a particular bugbear) are taxed whereas state pensions are not. There is a suggestion we should means test entitlement to a basic State pension - not a bad idea though the reaction to that would make the response to removing the Winter Fuel Allowance seem nothing.

    Do those who have already benefitted from generous public and indeed private sector pensions really need the state pension as well? It's a thought.

    It's quite clear there's not going to be a pot of gold at the end of the DOGE rainbow.
    A lot of people retire below state pension age and use the lump sum to take them through to state pension age. It's hard to argue they "don't need it" and changing the rules in retrospect would be odious.

    You should also, presumably, refund their NI contributions
    Early retirement is a choice.
    It is for most people (although some people have do so so through ill health) but you do your financial planning based on what you entitled to. I front-end loaded what I took from my occupational pension based on the idea I am going to get another £900 a month in 6-7 years time. You can't just suddenly take that away from people
    No, you can’t, and they won’t. However they may well look at changes to the age at which you can draw the state pension. Again shouldn’t affect you or I unless they ignore the 10 year rule.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,582
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    I’d just like to congratulate me on my incredible restraint

    Indeed. Though as you say, there's no need to you (or me) to talk about the subject now as it finally has the whole country's attention and as I said the only thing I will say about the subject is I hope that all of the victims get justice.
    I was clearly referring to my inhuman ability to resist a visit to the Faroes National Museum of Medieval Pew Ends, which is literally only a 40 minute walk away in the rain from where I’m having a coffee
    Saw some lovely medieval pew ends in Beverley (the church, not the minster) earlier this year.

    But, imagine, Faroese ones! Carvings of trolls, warlocks? You really might be missing something. Get on down.
    In all seriousness I tried. I love me a medieval pew end. Who doesn’t? But the Faroese decided to put their national museum on the outskirts of town in a weirdly disguised bunker next to a Lidl depot and it’s not findable on Google maps. And it’s only open about 3 hours a day (so about 2.5 hours longer than the national liquor store)

    So I’ve missed it and I fly home tomorrow early

    But I don’t care. I’ve seen all the rest of Faroes. I’ve had an absolute blast. It’s a fucking miserable place with terrible weather and surprisingly great food and insanely brooding landscapes and kind, friendly, mildly autistic people

    On Saturdays women gather on the main steps of the centre of the capital city - Thorshavn - and they… knit. Literally. That’s the big thing in the capital on weekends. Public knitting

    Superb


    Torshavn. Or Tórshavn, if you like diacritics.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,170

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
    Eventually the money will run out for those well paid retirements and public sector pensions will get a 50% haircut over a certain amount.

    Our medium term outlook to me definitely screams Argentina. It's taken them 80 years to get to the point of people being fed up enough to vote a radical reformer into power who has finally tackled the entitlement issue and cut the size of the state as well as subsidies and benefits. Inflation now down to 1.5% last month, forwards annual rate predicted to be under 20% for the coming year and there's talk about a local currency bond sale next year if inflation continues to fall.
    All very dramatic and you might enjoy it but we all know it won't happen like that.

    We could raise basic rate now to 25p and h,igher rate to 50p (unfreezing thresholds at the same time). Public sector pensions (which seem a particular bugbear) are taxed whereas state pensions are not. There is a suggestion we should means test entitlement to a basic State pension - not a bad idea though the reaction to that would make the response to removing the Winter Fuel Allowance seem nothing.

    Do those who have already benefitted from generous public and indeed private sector pensions really need the state pension as well? It's a thought.

    It's quite clear there's not going to be a pot of gold at the end of the DOGE rainbow.
    A lot of people retire below state pension age and use the lump sum to take them through to state pension age. It's hard to argue they "don't need it" and changing the rules in retrospect would be odious.

    You should also, presumably, refund their NI contributions
    Early retirement is a choice.
    It is for most people (although some people have do so so through ill health) but you do your financial planning based on what you entitled to. I front-end loaded what I took from my occupational pension based on the idea I am going to get another £900 a month in 6-7 years time. You can't just suddenly take that away from people
    The whole point is that we need to start stopping the "entitlement" culture. You've literally said it there. People feel entitled to retire early because the state doesn't penalise them properly for doing so. It should.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,294
    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Who said life gets dull when you retire. Yesterday a crowd of us went to watch a school friend go up in a Spitfire to celebrate his 70th birthday and today I started my male modelling career. Apparently I was fabulous. 🤮

    Cashmere cardies?
    Werther's relaunch ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,582

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The guy is a moron

    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump with Mark Carney: "The G7 used to be the G8. Barack Obama and a person named Trudeau didn't want to have Russia in, and I would say that was a mistake, because I think you wouldn't have a war right now if you had Russia in."

    Translation: he has an opinion I disagree with.
    I know you're a troll, but read the post again and try and figure out why you're just as big a moron as Trump.

    Here's a clue " I think you wouldn't have a war right now if you had Russia in"

    Why do you think that's not just wrong but moronic? In the initial period after the end of the Cold War it was US policy to prevent the Soviet Union from breaking up.
    It defies basic logic

    Event A happened (Russia invaded Ukraine)

    As a result of event A, event B happened. (Russia kicked out of G8)

    Trump says maybe A would not have happened if B didn't happen.

    Fucking moron.
    Most people distinguish the full scale invasion from the annexation of Crimea and DNR/LNR incursion.

    Trump is basically saying that we should have prioritised maintaining good relations with Russia over maintaining the territorial integrity of Ukraine. You might find that point of view abhorrent but it doesn't make him a moron.
    During Trump's first Term, he did NOTHING to persuade Putin to withdraw from Crimea and the occupied Donbas.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,580
    edited June 16
    Before his death did Andrew Norfolk ever get proper apologies from all those who piled on that he was just a massive racist and promoting a far right conspiracy? His death got only passing coverage in comparison to some obscure name from the world of the arts.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,522
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
    Eventually the money will run out for those well paid retirements and public sector pensions will get a 50% haircut over a certain amount.

    Our medium term outlook to me definitely screams Argentina. It's taken them 80 years to get to the point of people being fed up enough to vote a radical reformer into power who has finally tackled the entitlement issue and cut the size of the state as well as subsidies and benefits. Inflation now down to 1.5% last month, forwards annual rate predicted to be under 20% for the coming year and there's talk about a local currency bond sale next year if inflation continues to fall.
    All very dramatic and you might enjoy it but we all know it won't happen like that.

    We could raise basic rate now to 25p and h,igher rate to 50p (unfreezing thresholds at the same time). Public sector pensions (which seem a particular bugbear) are taxed whereas state pensions are not. There is a suggestion we should means test entitlement to a basic State pension - not a bad idea though the reaction to that would make the response to removing the Winter Fuel Allowance seem nothing.

    Do those who have already benefitted from generous public and indeed private sector pensions really need the state pension as well? It's a thought.

    It's quite clear there's not going to be a pot of gold at the end of the DOGE rainbow.
    A lot of people retire below state pension age and use the lump sum to take them through to state pension age. It's hard to argue they "don't need it" and changing the rules in retrospect would be odious.

    You should also, presumably, refund their NI contributions
    Early retirement is a choice.
    It is for most people (although some people have do so so through ill health) but you do your financial planning based on what you entitled to. I front-end loaded what I took from my occupational pension based on the idea I am going to get another £900 a month in 6-7 years time. You can't just suddenly take that away from people
    The whole point is that we need to start stopping the "entitlement" culture. You've literally said it there. People feel entitled to retire early because the state doesn't penalise them properly for doing so. It should.
    Punishing people for planning their retirement will lead to people not planning their retirement and the ongoing need for State Pension provision. The entitlement culture is the State thinking its entitled to keep fleecing everyone in every way it can find
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,705
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Who said life gets dull when you retire. Yesterday a crowd of us went to watch a school friend go up in a Spitfire to celebrate his 70th birthday and today I started my male modelling career. Apparently I was fabulous. 🤮

    Cashmere cardies?
    Werther's relaunch ?
    I couldn't mock. I have 3 of them every evening. Always exactly 3.

    Creeps up on you, age does.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,522
    Iran not that keen on ceasefire, now attacking Halfa again
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,727
    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Who said life gets dull when you retire. Yesterday a crowd of us went to watch a school friend go up in a Spitfire to celebrate his 70th birthday and today I started my male modelling career. Apparently I was fabulous. 🤮

    Cashmere cardies?
    I couldn't possibly say. Let's just say I had to get dressed up in some interesting outfits and leave it there.

    Apparently I actually get paid as well.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,580
    edited June 16
    Former Real Madrid and Wales star Gareth Bale is part of a US-based consortium's attempt to take over League One club Plymouth Argyle.

    Is there any league football club not owned by the Americans, Arabs or Bitcoiners these days? I don't think the Yanks are doing it because they want to sportswash.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,762
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
    Eventually the money will run out for those well paid retirements and public sector pensions will get a 50% haircut over a certain amount.

    Our medium term outlook to me definitely screams Argentina. It's taken them 80 years to get to the point of people being fed up enough to vote a radical reformer into power who has finally tackled the entitlement issue and cut the size of the state as well as subsidies and benefits. Inflation now down to 1.5% last month, forwards annual rate predicted to be under 20% for the coming year and there's talk about a local currency bond sale next year if inflation continues to fall.
    All very dramatic and you might enjoy it but we all know it won't happen like that.

    We could raise basic rate now to 25p and h,igher rate to 50p (unfreezing thresholds at the same time). Public sector pensions (which seem a particular bugbear) are taxed whereas state pensions are not. There is a suggestion we should means test entitlement to a basic State pension - not a bad idea though the reaction to that would make the response to removing the Winter Fuel Allowance seem nothing.

    Do those who have already benefitted from generous public and indeed private sector pensions really need the state pension as well? It's a thought.

    It's quite clear there's not going to be a pot of gold at the end of the DOGE rainbow.
    A lot of people retire below state pension age and use the lump sum to take them through to state pension age. It's hard to argue they "don't need it" and changing the rules in retrospect would be odious.

    You should also, presumably, refund their NI contributions
    Early retirement is a choice.
    It is for most people (although some people have do so so through ill health) but you do your financial planning based on what you entitled to. I front-end loaded what I took from my occupational pension based on the idea I am going to get another £900 a month in 6-7 years time. You can't just suddenly take that away from people
    The whole point is that we need to start stopping the "entitlement" culture. You've literally said it there. People feel entitled to retire early because the state doesn't penalise them properly for doing so. It should.
    No, I retired early because I calculated I can afford to live on the pension pot I have built up (despite actuarial reduction) and the relatively small (by international standards) State Pension I am due to get in a few years. In any case, there is no such thing as "early" retirement, you can do so whenever you can support yourself.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,580
    Leon said:

    The video of the Iranian newswoman in a studio getting bombed live on-air is quite something

    Press TV next?
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,006
    edited June 16
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
    Eventually the money will run out for those well paid retirements and public sector pensions will get a 50% haircut over a certain amount.

    Our medium term outlook to me definitely screams Argentina. It's taken them 80 years to get to the point of people being fed up enough to vote a radical reformer into power who has finally tackled the entitlement issue and cut the size of the state as well as subsidies and benefits. Inflation now down to 1.5% last month, forwards annual rate predicted to be under 20% for the coming year and there's talk about a local currency bond sale next year if inflation continues to fall.
    All very dramatic and you might enjoy it but we all know it won't happen like that.

    We could raise basic rate now to 25p and h,igher rate to 50p (unfreezing thresholds at the same time). Public sector pensions (which seem a particular bugbear) are taxed whereas state pensions are not. There is a suggestion we should means test entitlement to a basic State pension - not a bad idea though the reaction to that would make the response to removing the Winter Fuel Allowance seem nothing.

    Do those who have already benefitted from generous public and indeed private sector pensions really need the state pension as well? It's a thought.

    It's quite clear there's not going to be a pot of gold at the end of the DOGE rainbow.
    And what does putting up tax to 25% and 50%(!) do for the working age population other than drive them to the exit door? I've been looking at what I might do now that my year off is rapidly coming to an end and we've got a third kid on the way, the 50% mark has always been the psychological red line for me. Why should I go to work only for the state to take half of my productivity and piss it up the wall of the public sector.

    No we need to cut benefit entitlements, public sector pensions above a certain size and as I've told you many times at least 1m public sector roles need to go. We're into the negative productivity per worker/pound side of the equation for the state and more money and more workers isn't going to result in better services provision, it will likely get worse. The answer is higher output per worker.
    I'm not sure what you mean by "piss it up the wall" of the public sector? You may not be one of those who thinks "the public sector" (and I don't know what you mean by that - central Government, local Government, the NHS, the Police, Fire, Ambulance, the Armed Forces?) is value for money but many rely on it on a daily basis.

    You've not explained what "above a certain size" means either - if you mean the pensions paid to CEOs of Councils or Permanent Secretaries you may have a point but if you want to get after those much further down the food chain, then no.

    Local Government has lost one million jobs since 2012 - there aren't that many civil servants in the conventional sense. Do you mean going after the NHS, the newly nationalised railways or what?
    Isn't that the problem though, we have far too many people relying on it on a daily basis, whether that's for their salary or benefits. It's becoming a self perpetuating mess of a system where a small proportion of very active users take up the resource making it poor value for money. Instead of giving these lazy benefit cheats a kick up the arse the state just enables them by handing them freebie houses and cars because they're "mentally ill" and have "anxiety".

    Cut the entitlements, cut the waste, cut a million public sector jobs and push through a 50% haircut for defined benefit pensions above £30k per year (so a £50k DB pension becomes a £40k one, a £70k one becomes a £50k one etc...)

    I also don't care where the job losses come from but the NHS seems like a good place to start and I'd also ban agency staffing and severely limit consultant usage, give each department and trust a limited number of consultant days per year (maybe 20) and push them into SAAS usage which has a very fast time to value rather than on-prem custom build solutions that need swathes of consultants and contractors to build something no one will ever know how to maintain once they're all gone.
    Wouldn't that push up the number of public sector workers who are entitled to public sector pensions? The whole point of hiring consultants is that they won't be entitled to public sector pensions and employment benefits. Also it means you'd have to raise some public sector wages in order to attract some of those people to do the job permanently. I'm not saying it's a bad idea but there's no easy answers.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,699
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Damning findings from UK

    72% say economy "rigged for rich & powerful"
    68% "traditional parties don't care about me"
    68% "country in decline"
    68% "mainstream media want money not truth"
    67% "experts don't understand me"
    65% "society is broken

    -Ipsos MORI"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1934603108987883863

    Hard to disagree that seems to be the widespread sentiment. The country just doesn’t work for enough people.

    Something will give, sooner or later.
    Our democracy will probably be what gives.
    The entitled classes now outnumber the productive classes so I assume they will keep voting themselves payrises and benefit increases until the nation becomes Argentina. The UK is on a very bumpy road and we still have a chance to divert to a better one but it means big cuts to entitlements and the state to balance the budget and stop living beyond our means.
    Look at the hysteria over WFA and slowing the rate of growth, not even cutting, some benefits.

    I’m afraid we will end up learning a very hard lesson as there is no will politically to tackle it and by the time the problem needs to be tackled all the guilty parties will be living a well paid retirement.
    Eventually the money will run out for those well paid retirements and public sector pensions will get a 50% haircut over a certain amount.

    Our medium term outlook to me definitely screams Argentina. It's taken them 80 years to get to the point of people being fed up enough to vote a radical reformer into power who has finally tackled the entitlement issue and cut the size of the state as well as subsidies and benefits. Inflation now down to 1.5% last month, forwards annual rate predicted to be under 20% for the coming year and there's talk about a local currency bond sale next year if inflation continues to fall.
    All very dramatic and you might enjoy it but we all know it won't happen like that.

    We could raise basic rate now to 25p and h,igher rate to 50p (unfreezing thresholds at the same time). Public sector pensions (which seem a particular bugbear) are taxed whereas state pensions are not. There is a suggestion we should means test entitlement to a basic State pension - not a bad idea though the reaction to that would make the response to removing the Winter Fuel Allowance seem nothing.

    Do those who have already benefitted from generous public and indeed private sector pensions really need the state pension as well? It's a thought.

    It's quite clear there's not going to be a pot of gold at the end of the DOGE rainbow.
    And what does putting up tax to 25% and 50%(!) do for the working age population other than drive them to the exit door? I've been looking at what I might do now that my year off is rapidly coming to an end and we've got a third kid on the way, the 50% mark has always been the psychological red line for me. Why should I go to work only for the state to take half of my productivity and piss it up the wall of the public sector.

    No we need to cut benefit entitlements, public sector pensions above a certain size and as I've told you many times at least 1m public sector roles need to go. We're into the negative productivity per worker/pound side of the equation for the state and more money and more workers isn't going to result in better services provision, it will likely get worse. The answer is higher output per worker.
    I'm not sure what you mean by "piss it up the wall" of the public sector? You may not be one of those who thinks "the public sector" (and I don't know what you mean by that - central Government, local Government, the NHS, the Police, Fire, Ambulance, the Armed Forces?) is value for money but many rely on it on a daily basis.

    You've not explained what "above a certain size" means either - if you mean the pensions paid to CEOs of Councils or Permanent Secretaries you may have a point but if you want to get after those much further down the food chain, then no.

    Local Government has lost one million jobs since 2012 - there aren't that many civil servants in the conventional sense. Do you mean going after the NHS, the newly nationalised railways or what?
    Isn't that the problem though, we have far too many people relying on it on a daily basis, whether that's for their salary or benefits. It's becoming a self perpetuating mess of a system where a small proportion of very active users take up the resource making it poor value for money. Instead of giving these lazy benefit cheats a kick up the arse the state just enables them by handing them freebie houses and cars because they're "mentally ill" and have "anxiety".

    Cut the entitlements, cut the waste, cut a million public sector jobs and push through a 50% haircut for defined benefit pensions above £30k per year (so a £50k DB pension becomes a £40k one, a £70k one becomes a £50k one etc...)

    I also don't care where the job losses come from but the NHS seems like a good place to start and I'd also ban agency staffing and severely limit consultant usage, give each department and trust a limited number of consultant days per year (maybe 20) and push them into SAAS usage which has a very fast time to value rather than on-prem custom build solutions that need swathes of consultants and contractors to build something no one will ever know how to maintain once they're all gone.
    Thank you for the as always measured response.

    There are people especially at the lower end of the food chain (care workers for example) who do an incredible job for not much money. As for the comment about "users", well, yes, it's been proven for every 100 people registered with a GP, 10 come in regularly mainly with chronic conditions, another 10 visit on an energency irregular basis ans 80 don't visit at all.

    We've also established there are those who are playing the system and I agree there are and always have been but I would love to see much more done to bring carers (particularly those in the 30-50 age group caring for older parents) as well as those with physical and mental disabilities into the workforce or back into the workforce and companies need to be more flexible and think more flexibly abouy how they can bring these groups into work.

    I presume your pension "haircut" would mean what - that an employee would receive more money rather than have it taken as pension contribution and an employer wouldn't have to make their contribution at all but would have to pay the salary? Schemes like LPGS survive because higher paid employees and their employers pay more in to ensure those further down the chain receive their full benefits.

    As for consultants, you'll get no argument from me. I found the overwhelming majority of them expensive and utterly useless - they were gouging Councils £1200 per day (if not more) but were they worth it? No. I wouldn't ban them but I would set an upper limit to what they can charge central and local Government - possibly £10 per day (he jested).

    It's a popular maxim - those who can, do - those who can afford to become consultants.
This discussion has been closed.