Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.
There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.
The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.
Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.
They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.
My parents are probably going to get the winter fuel allowance again, and they most definitely don't need it. Good example of what's going wrong atm.
In a round about way asset rich pensioners are going to end up paying more in tax than they get in the winter fuel allowance due to large council tax rises over the next few years. But by means testing the WFA it won't save any money at all after the extra paper pushing admin has been factored in....wouldn't even be surprised if we find out it costs more.
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.
There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.
The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.
Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.
They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.
Having strikes going on for a year demonstrates a failure to negotiate, not the exercising of pay restraint.
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
Worse than that, they seem to have ignored this guy...
The horrendously dangerous situation in Iran must stop. The International community must bring Israel to account and halt this latest escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
At least he had the balls to mention Israel, a name conspicuously absent from most of the piety emanating from Labour.
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.
There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.
The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.
Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.
They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.
Having strikes going on for a year demonstrates a failure to negotiate, not the exercising of pay restraint.
I think it was much simpler than that. Inflation was running at 10%, but forecast to drop to 2% by the next year. The anchoring for any pay rise will always be a real terms increase or very least match. So the Tories thought if we just keep kicking this into the long grass we can probably get away with offering 2-3-4% and a one off payment, and claim they are giving an above inflation pay rise.
Of course Labour came in and in the likes of Louise Haigh just folded and gave the unions massive back dated rises with zero reform. So we ended up with the worst of both worlds.
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
He disqualified himself when he said 'Israel has the right to defend itself'
Even the BBC were better informed
Yes, Roger, we all know you think that Israeli's have a right to die and no right to defend themselves.
Of course Starmer was right, every country has the right to defend itself, especially from a possible nuclear threat
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
Worse than that, they seem to have ignored this guy...
The horrendously dangerous situation in Iran must stop. The International community must bring Israel to account and halt this latest escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
At least he had the balls to mention Israel, a name conspicuously absent from most of the piety emanating from Labour.
He is free to say what he likes since nobody in the World gives a flying f...
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.
There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.
The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.
Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.
They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.
My parents are probably going to get the winter fuel allowance again, and they most definitely don't need it. Good example of what's going wrong atm.
In a round about way asset rich pensioners are going to end up paying more in tax than they get in the winter fuel allowance due to large council tax rises over the next few years. But by means testing the WFA it won't save any money at all after the extra paper pushing admin has been factored in....wouldn't even be surprised if we find out it costs more.
Here in Llandudno we have had 3 years of near 10% pa council tax rises far above 5% suggested by English labour
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
Worse than that, they seem to have ignored this guy...
The horrendously dangerous situation in Iran must stop. The International community must bring Israel to account and halt this latest escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
At least he had the balls to mention Israel, a name conspicuously absent from most of the piety emanating from Labour.
Israel are doing the right thing in preventing Iran from having nukes, when Iran has the stated goal of wiping out Israel and has been attacking Israel directly and indirectly for decades.
Israel has the absolute right to self-defence - and he has the audacity to say they do not? He said their name yes, but he said it wrong.
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.
There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.
The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.
Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.
They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.
My parents are probably going to get the winter fuel allowance again, and they most definitely don't need it. Good example of what's going wrong atm.
In a round about way asset rich pensioners are going to end up paying more in tax than they get in the winter fuel allowance due to large council tax rises over the next few years. But by means testing the WFA it won't save any money at all after the extra paper pushing admin has been factored in....wouldn't even be surprised if we find out it costs more.
Here in Llandudno we have had 3 years of near 10% pa council tax rises far above 5% suggested by English labour
I notice that findoutnow's latest six weekly polls have gone from a 13 point Reform lead to a 6 point one going down in each successive poll. 13,12,11,10,9,6
Could it be that findoutnow are trying to moderate their polls to fall in line with more established pollsters or are Reform finally being found out (excuse the pun)?
Find Out Now were the most accurate pollster for the May Mayoralties so I doubt they feel the need to adjust their methodology. Its just that Reform have plateaued and there's a bit of noise
Good morning
The locals have been terrible for labour with many easy reform wins
However, I agree with the header and it is impossible to predict the next GE at this time.
Events, especially unexpected ones, come along and may derail governments though they may do the opposite, so whilst we cannot rule out a labour win with a reduced majority, we also cannot rule out a 'conservative like experience in 2024' and labour being trounced
Mind you, I just do not see PM Farage, certainly with a majority and I expect that unless Kemi recovers the conservative polling then she will not be leader this time next year post the Senedd and Holyrood elections
Now who replaces her from a list of Jenrick, Cleverly, Stride, Hunt, Mordaunt, or even (God forbid) Boris is anyone's guess.
Maybe ANO
Labour got so badly humped on May 1 that they only led in 3 of the seats where wards were contested losing oodles to Reform and even the Tories. Its all headwinds from here, the PIP debacle next up as a flashpoint. Yeah Kemi needs a solid third in Wales or Scotland and to hold on to some councils plus get polling back into the mid 20s or a challenge next year is certain. Labour may recover of course but that will be at the expense of LD and Green votes which unless it really takes off isnt going to scare Reform or the Tories as much
I notice that findoutnow's latest six weekly polls have gone from a 13 point Reform lead to a 6 point one going down in each successive poll. 13,12,11,10,9,6
Could it be that findoutnow are trying to moderate their polls to fall in line with more established pollsters or are Reform finally being found out (excuse the pun)?
Find Out Now were the most accurate pollster for the May Mayoralties so I doubt they feel the need to adjust their methodology. Its just that Reform have plateaued and there's a bit of noise
Good morning
The locals have been terrible for labour with many easy reform wins
However, I agree with the header and it is impossible to predict the next GE at this time.
Events, especially unexpected ones, come along and may derail governments though they may do the opposite, so whilst we cannot rule out a labour win with a reduced majority, we also cannot rule out a 'conservative like experience in 2024' and labour being trounced
Mind you, I just do not see PM Farage, certainly with a majority and I expect that unless Kemi recovers the conservative polling then she will not be leader this time next year post the Senedd and Holyrood elections
Now who replaces her from a list of Jenrick, Cleverly, Stride, Hunt, Mordaunt, or even (God forbid) Boris is anyone's guess.
Maybe ANO
Labour got so badly humped on May 1 that they only led in 3 of the seats where wards were contested losing oodles to Reform and even the Tories. Its all headwinds from here, the PIP debacle next up as a flashpoint. Yeah Kemi needs a solid third in Wales or Scotland and to hold on to some councils plus get polling back into the mid 20s or a challenge next year is certain. Labour may recover of course but that will be at the expense of LD and Green votes which unless it really takes off isnt going to scare Reform or the Tories as much
The next three rounds of local elections should be excellent for Reform.
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
He disqualified himself when he said 'Israel has the right to defend itself'
Even the BBC were better informed
Yes, Roger, we all know you think that Israeli's have a right to die and no right to defend themselves.
Of course Starmer was right, every country has the right to defend itself, especially from a possible nuclear threat
I believe at one point Sir Keir said that Israel had the right to cut off water, food and energy to another country in order to defend itself. Iranians must be grateful that Israel doesn't have that capabilty in regard to them.
I notice that findoutnow's latest six weekly polls have gone from a 13 point Reform lead to a 6 point one going down in each successive poll. 13,12,11,10,9,6
Could it be that findoutnow are trying to moderate their polls to fall in line with more established pollsters or are Reform finally being found out (excuse the pun)?
Find Out Now were the most accurate pollster for the May Mayoralties so I doubt they feel the need to adjust their methodology. Its just that Reform have plateaued and there's a bit of noise
Good morning
The locals have been terrible for labour with many easy reform wins
However, I agree with the header and it is impossible to predict the next GE at this time.
Events, especially unexpected ones, come along and may derail governments though they may do the opposite, so whilst we cannot rule out a labour win with a reduced majority, we also cannot rule out a 'conservative like experience in 2024' and labour being trounced
Mind you, I just do not see PM Farage, certainly with a majority and I expect that unless Kemi recovers the conservative polling then she will not be leader this time next year post the Senedd and Holyrood elections
Now who replaces her from a list of Jenrick, Cleverly, Stride, Hunt, Mordaunt, or even (God forbid) Boris is anyone's guess.
Maybe ANO
Labour got so badly humped on May 1 that they only led in 3 of the seats where wards were contested losing oodles to Reform and even the Tories. Its all headwinds from here, the PIP debacle next up as a flashpoint. Yeah Kemi needs a solid third in Wales or Scotland and to hold on to some councils plus get polling back into the mid 20s or a challenge next year is certain. Labour may recover of course but that will be at the expense of LD and Green votes which unless it really takes off isnt going to scare Reform or the Tories as much
I notice that findoutnow's latest six weekly polls have gone from a 13 point Reform lead to a 6 point one going down in each successive poll. 13,12,11,10,9,6
Could it be that findoutnow are trying to moderate their polls to fall in line with more established pollsters or are Reform finally being found out (excuse the pun)?
Find Out Now were the most accurate pollster for the May Mayoralties so I doubt they feel the need to adjust their methodology. Its just that Reform have plateaued and there's a bit of noise
Good morning
The locals have been terrible for labour with many easy reform wins
However, I agree with the header and it is impossible to predict the next GE at this time.
Events, especially unexpected ones, come along and may derail governments though they may do the opposite, so whilst we cannot rule out a labour win with a reduced majority, we also cannot rule out a 'conservative like experience in 2024' and labour being trounced
Mind you, I just do not see PM Farage, certainly with a majority and I expect that unless Kemi recovers the conservative polling then she will not be leader this time next year post the Senedd and Holyrood elections
Now who replaces her from a list of Jenrick, Cleverly, Stride, Hunt, Mordaunt, or even (God forbid) Boris is anyone's guess.
Maybe ANO
Labour got so badly humped on May 1 that they only led in 3 of the seats where wards were contested losing oodles to Reform and even the Tories. Its all headwinds from here, the PIP debacle next up as a flashpoint. Yeah Kemi needs a solid third in Wales or Scotland and to hold on to some councils plus get polling back into the mid 20s or a challenge next year is certain. Labour may recover of course but that will be at the expense of LD and Green votes which unless it really takes off isnt going to scare Reform or the Tories as much
The next three rounds of local elections should be excellent for Reform.
Yes, coming from nothing they can only gain. How they do in the mayoralties, Wales, Scotland and the London Assembly will be instructive as to their current strength
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.
There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.
The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.
Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.
They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.
Having strikes going on for a year demonstrates a failure to negotiate, not the exercising of pay restraint.
I think it was much simpler than that. Inflation was running at 10%, but forecast to drop to 2% by the next year. The anchoring for any pay rise will always be a real terms increase or very least match. So the Tories thought if we just keep kicking this into the long grass we can probably get away with offering 2-3-4% and a one off payment, and claim they are giving an above inflation pay rise.
Of course Labour came in and in the likes of Louise Haigh just folded and gave the unions massive back dated rises with zero reform. So we ended up with the worst of both worlds.
We ended up with trains running every day and NHS waiting lists coming down.
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.
There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.
The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.
Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.
They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.
Having strikes going on for a year demonstrates a failure to negotiate, not the exercising of pay restraint.
I think it was much simpler than that. Inflation was running at 10%, but forecast to drop to 2% by the next year. The anchoring for any pay rise will always be a real terms increase or very least match. So the Tories thought if we just keep kicking this into the long grass we can probably get away with offering 2-3-4% and a one off payment, and claim they are giving an above inflation pay rise.
Of course Labour came in and in the likes of Louise Haigh just folded and gave the unions massive back dated rises with zero reform. So we ended up with the worst of both worlds.
We ended up with trains running every day and NHS waiting lists coming down.
Well actually no, they striking again on the railway this week and next. I had experience of it.
Also at massive cost. If you give 10% back dated that is then hard coded into the public sector salary for that job forever. If you give a one off £1000 and 3%, long term that is much less. Also zero reform to modernise working practices which were in the mix when the Tories were negotiating.
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.
There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.
The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.
Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.
They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.
Having strikes going on for a year demonstrates a failure to negotiate, not the exercising of pay restraint.
Strikes are constantly being threatened now, and some are even taking place, despite huge pay rises.
They were also negotiating. If, say, the Conservatives and Hunt had won again they'd have had to settle at a lower figure because they couldn't strike for 5 years.
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.
There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.
The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.
Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.
They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.
My parents are probably going to get the winter fuel allowance again, and they most definitely don't need it. Good example of what's going wrong atm.
In a round about way asset rich pensioners are going to end up paying more in tax than they get in the winter fuel allowance due to large council tax rises over the next few years. But by means testing the WFA it won't save any money at all after the extra paper pushing admin has been factored in....wouldn't even be surprised if we find out it costs more.
Here in Llandudno we have had 3 years of near 10% pa council tax rises far above 5% suggested by English labour
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
Worse than that, they seem to have ignored this guy...
The horrendously dangerous situation in Iran must stop. The International community must bring Israel to account and halt this latest escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
At least he had the balls to mention Israel, a name conspicuously absent from most of the piety emanating from Labour.
Israel are doing the right thing in preventing Iran from having nukes, when Iran has the stated goal of wiping out Israel and has been attacking Israel directly and indirectly for decades.
Israel has the absolute right to self-defence - and he has the audacity to say they do not? He said their name yes, but he said it wrong.
Far be it for me to interrupt your perpetual rage wank over Israel and its enemies, but it really is wasted on me. Probably everyone else also since in the great pantheon of PBers never to have persuaded any others of their arguments, you must be close to the top.
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.
There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.
The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.
Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.
They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.
Having strikes going on for a year demonstrates a failure to negotiate, not the exercising of pay restraint.
I think it was much simpler than that. Inflation was running at 10%, but forecast to drop to 2% by the next year. The anchoring for any pay rise will always be a real terms increase or very least match. So the Tories thought if we just keep kicking this into the long grass we can probably get away with offering 2-3-4% and a one off payment, and claim they are giving an above inflation pay rise.
Of course Labour came in and in the likes of Louise Haigh just folded and gave the unions massive back dated rises with zero reform. So we ended up with the worst of both worlds.
A one off payment doesn't meet inflation though, it still leaves pay every year going forwards as being significantly cut.
They should have just met inflation as they did with welfare . . . or said "we're all in it together" and given nobody, including their client vote, the inflationary rise.
Instead they did the worst of both worlds and you can't blame Labour for fixing their mess.
We have two weeks of fine and dry weather ahead. So, another 15,000 could cross before this month ends.
That's a huge number and must be very noticeable in the Pas de Calais area as must all the smuggler activity and their suppliers.
It's hard to conclude the French simply want to pretend they're doing something about it, and extracting the cash, whilst hoping as many abscond to the UK as possible.
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
'ave at it, boys. - DavidL as PM.
You're too kind but who would prosecute all these rapes? Off to Inverness on Monday for another one.
What is it about that place?
'Four and twenty virgins went down to Inverness. When the ball was over there were four and twenty less....'
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.
There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.
The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.
Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.
They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.
Having strikes going on for a year demonstrates a failure to negotiate, not the exercising of pay restraint.
I think it was much simpler than that. Inflation was running at 10%, but forecast to drop to 2% by the next year. The anchoring for any pay rise will always be a real terms increase or very least match. So the Tories thought if we just keep kicking this into the long grass we can probably get away with offering 2-3-4% and a one off payment, and claim they are giving an above inflation pay rise.
Of course Labour came in and in the likes of Louise Haigh just folded and gave the unions massive back dated rises with zero reform. So we ended up with the worst of both worlds.
We ended up with trains running every day and NHS waiting lists coming down.
Well actually no, they striking again on the railway this week and next. I had experience of it.
Also at massive cost. If you give 10% back dated that is then hard coded into the public sector salary for that job forever. If you give a one off £1000 and 3%, long term that is much less. Also zero reform to modernise working practices which were in the mix when the Tories were negotiating.
That would be a big real terms pay cut, so why should workers have accepted it?
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
Worse than that, they seem to have ignored this guy...
The horrendously dangerous situation in Iran must stop. The International community must bring Israel to account and halt this latest escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
At least he had the balls to mention Israel, a name conspicuously absent from most of the piety emanating from Labour.
Israel are doing the right thing in preventing Iran from having nukes, when Iran has the stated goal of wiping out Israel and has been attacking Israel directly and indirectly for decades.
Israel has the absolute right to self-defence - and he has the audacity to say they do not? He said their name yes, but he said it wrong.
Far be it for me to interrupt your perpetual rage wank over Israel and its enemies, but it really is wasted on me. Probably everyone else also since in the great pantheon of PBers never to have persuaded any others of their arguments, you must be close to the top.
I don't expect to get nutters like you to comprehend why Israelis have the right to defend themselves.
We have two weeks of fine and dry weather ahead. So, another 15,000 could cross before this month ends.
That's a huge number and must be very noticeable in the Pas de Calais area as must all the smuggler activity and their suppliers.
It's hard to conclude the French simply want to pretend they're doing something about it, and extracting the cash, whilst hoping as many abscond to the UK as possible.
No hotels will be being used in 3 years time.....Either the government are just going to fast track them as genuine asylum claims or even buying up hotels won't be enough.
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.
There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.
The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.
Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.
They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.
Having strikes going on for a year demonstrates a failure to negotiate, not the exercising of pay restraint.
I think it was much simpler than that. Inflation was running at 10%, but forecast to drop to 2% by the next year. The anchoring for any pay rise will always be a real terms increase or very least match. So the Tories thought if we just keep kicking this into the long grass we can probably get away with offering 2-3-4% and a one off payment, and claim they are giving an above inflation pay rise.
Of course Labour came in and in the likes of Louise Haigh just folded and gave the unions massive back dated rises with zero reform. So we ended up with the worst of both worlds.
Folded from our point of view but, from hers, maybe rewarding and building her base.
Good morning. The 'Reform to win' narrative is on the back of a couple of months of good polling - SDP 81 styley. All the MRPs prior to April showed a variety of hung parliaments with Ref, Con, Lab all getting a chunk of seats and LDs holding on to a chunk of their gains. Local election results suggest there will be a great number of very closely fought seats won on about 30% of the vote. The parties that best identify their 150 to 200 best seats and get the vote out will do just fine, even on 20% of the national vote (if we go into the election with 5 parties on 8% plus, all under 30 like now). Id not want to even think about how it might look until we see where they are all polling best in councils and VI nearer the time.
Totally agree. Only a fool. Although to snaffle the value you have to be that fool. You have to go in with the big early call, macro not micro, wood not trees, and put your money full square behind it. With the crucial caveat that you *don't* have to. Indeed you shouldn't if you don't have a genuine intuitive feel about it that you trust. You have to be on guard for wishful thinking and for its opposite and equally common perversion, the emotional hedge.
With GE29 I'm not (yet) hearing the music. My sense is Labour are tracking to win again (and 2.5 is decent imo) but it's a tentative sort of opinion. Barely an opinion at all, really, and I'm not even close to betting on it. Speaking of betting, a Kemi Badenoch 2025 exit as Con leader is a Not Happening Event and I was pleased to be able to lay it at an absurdly short 2.7. It remains (lay) value at 4.5 imo.
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.
There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.
The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.
Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.
They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.
Having strikes going on for a year demonstrates a failure to negotiate, not the exercising of pay restraint.
I think it was much simpler than that. Inflation was running at 10%, but forecast to drop to 2% by the next year. The anchoring for any pay rise will always be a real terms increase or very least match. So the Tories thought if we just keep kicking this into the long grass we can probably get away with offering 2-3-4% and a one off payment, and claim they are giving an above inflation pay rise.
Of course Labour came in and in the likes of Louise Haigh just folded and gave the unions massive back dated rises with zero reform. So we ended up with the worst of both worlds.
Folded from our point of view but, from hers, maybe rewarding and building her base.
Well yes it was obviously the quid pro quo of unions supporting Labour. The sort of thing that Tories taking money from business for these kind of favours rightly gets blasted.
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
I also think labour are learning on the job. They're certainly looking more competent than they did and Starmer is close to looking like a Prime Minister. There is something unflash about him which seems to suit the zeitgeist at the moment. If anyone's listening to the Churchill Atlee prog at the moment they might see the embryo of another Atlee
Not Flash, Just Gordon He'll be 'getting on with the job' next.
I loved that line. It was never used. The one that got away
Just out of interest, what does this new chairman actually believe, and why is it less serious than having someone who believes in the god of classical theism?
Are they any good at their job? If so, then personal beliefs, whether monotheism, occultism, or astrology, don't really matter.
I was quite impressed with the excuse given for trying to throttle him. I was channelling your grandmother but then some malevolent ghost intervened. As excuses go it has high novelty value.
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.
There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.
The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.
Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.
They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.
Having strikes going on for a year demonstrates a failure to negotiate, not the exercising of pay restraint.
I think it was much simpler than that. Inflation was running at 10%, but forecast to drop to 2% by the next year. The anchoring for any pay rise will always be a real terms increase or very least match. So the Tories thought if we just keep kicking this into the long grass we can probably get away with offering 2-3-4% and a one off payment, and claim they are giving an above inflation pay rise.
Of course Labour came in and in the likes of Louise Haigh just folded and gave the unions massive back dated rises with zero reform. So we ended up with the worst of both worlds.
We ended up with trains running every day and NHS waiting lists coming down.
Well actually no, they striking again on the railway this week and next. I had experience of it.
Also at massive cost. If you give 10% back dated that is then hard coded into the public sector salary for that job forever. If you give a one off £1000 and 3%, long term that is much less. Also zero reform to modernise working practices which were in the mix when the Tories were negotiating.
If inflation has gone up by 10% then prices are hard coded by 10% every year forever.
If pay then goes up by 10% backdated then that cancels out inflation, it is not a real terms pay rise.
Spunking money on a one-off payment just wastes money on a bandaid problem to fix issues for today while leaving a pay shortage for next year that needs fixing still.
Good morning. The 'Reform to win' narrative is on the back of a couple of months of good polling - SDP 81 styley. All the MRPs prior to April showed a variety of hung parliaments with Ref, Con, Lab all getting a chunk of seats and LDs holding on to a chunk of their gains. Local election results suggest there will be a great number of very closely fought seats won on about 30% of the vote. The parties that best identify their 150 to 200 best seats and get the vote out will do just fine, even on 20% of the national vote (if we go into the election with 5 parties on 8% plus, all under 30 like now). Id not want to even think about how it might look until we see where they are all polling best in councils and VI nearer the time.
Totally agree. Only a fool. Although to snaffle the value you have to be that fool. You have to go in with the big early call, macro not micro, wood not trees, and put your money full square behind it. With the crucial caveat that you *don't* have to. Indeed you shouldn't if you don't have a genuine intuitive feel about it that you trust. You have to be on guard for wishful thinking and for its opposite and equally common perversion, the emotional hedge.
With GE29 I'm not (yet) hearing the music. My sense is Labour are tracking to win again (and 2.5 is decent imo) but it's a tentative sort of opinion. Barely an opinion at all, really, and I'm not even close to betting on it. Speaking of betting, a Kemi Badenoch 25 exit as Con leader is a Not Happening Event and I was pleased to be able to lay it at an absurdly short 2.7. It remains value at 4.5 imo.
*nods* My current sense FWIW is we are headed for a weak Minority govt and back to the polls within a year where votes will coalesce and we will get either a small majority or a strong minority supported by C and S/strong opposition result
We have two weeks of fine and dry weather ahead. So, another 15,000 could cross before this month ends.
That's a huge number and must be very noticeable in the Pas de Calais area as must all the smuggler activity and their suppliers.
It's hard to conclude the French simply want to pretend they're doing something about it, and extracting the cash, whilst hoping as many abscond to the UK as possible.
No hotels will be being used in 3 years time.....Either the government are just going to fast track them as genuine asylum claims or even buying up hotels won't be enough.
I'd prefer them to all bugger off, quite frankly.
I'm increasingly hard-line. The whole thing is bollocks.
Those who get here are largely ambitious young men who can afford thousands. It's an investment for economic migration and the business model is facilitated by absurdly broad asylum rules, legal dogma on sea and land, and a huge black economy.
It all needs sorting out. And absolutely nowhere do I read about HMG reforming the law, the migration treaties, or tooling up to repel or deport people en-masse using reasonable force.
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
I also think labour are learning on the job. They're certainly looking more competent than they did and Starmer is close to looking like a Prime Minister. There is something unflash about him which seems to suit the zeitgeist at the moment. If anyone's listening to the Churchill Atlee prog at the moment they might see the embryo of another Atlee
Not Flash, Just Gordon He'll be 'getting on with the job' next.
I loved that line. It was never used. The one that got away
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.
There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.
The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.
Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.
They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.
Having strikes going on for a year demonstrates a failure to negotiate, not the exercising of pay restraint.
I think it was much simpler than that. Inflation was running at 10%, but forecast to drop to 2% by the next year. The anchoring for any pay rise will always be a real terms increase or very least match. So the Tories thought if we just keep kicking this into the long grass we can probably get away with offering 2-3-4% and a one off payment, and claim they are giving an above inflation pay rise.
Of course Labour came in and in the likes of Louise Haigh just folded and gave the unions massive back dated rises with zero reform. So we ended up with the worst of both worlds.
Folded from our point of view but, from hers, maybe rewarding and building her base.
"Massive back dated rises" does not quite fit iirc as what was given; the rises were mainly CPI inflation or a little less.
Managing demands in the future will be more problematic, since eg the Doctors organisations have based their claims on RPI inflation, and want recovery to implied levels from 14-15 years ago. I'd be quite rude about the basis of that claim.
We have two weeks of fine and dry weather ahead. So, another 15,000 could cross before this month ends.
That's a huge number and must be very noticeable in the Pas de Calais area as must all the smuggler activity and their suppliers.
It's hard to conclude the French simply want to pretend they're doing something about it, and extracting the cash, whilst hoping as many abscond to the UK as possible.
No hotels will be being used in 3 years time.....Either the government are just going to fast track them as genuine asylum claims or even buying up hotels won't be enough.
I'd prefer them to all bugger off, quite frankly.
I'm increasingly hard-line. The whole thing is bollocks.
Those who get here are largely ambitious young men who can afford thousands. It's an investment for economic migration and the business model is facilitated by absurdly broad asylum rules, legal dogma on sea and land, and a huge black economy.
It all needs sorting out. And absolutely nowhere do I read about HMG reforming the law, the migration treaties, or tooling up to repel or deport people en-masse using reasonable force.
The payment side of things is interesting. I saw a report that looked into this and yes it is true some are paying for this via loans / bonded labour, but claims for that are overstated as for a while it was an instance way to get to stay, but in reality a large chunk earn the money working in places like Italy and France.
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.
There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.
The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.
Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.
They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.
My parents are probably going to get the winter fuel allowance again, and they most definitely don't need it. Good example of what's going wrong atm.
In a round about way asset rich pensioners are going to end up paying more in tax than they get in the winter fuel allowance due to large council tax rises over the next few years. But by means testing the WFA it won't save any money at all after the extra paper pushing admin has been factored in....wouldn't even be surprised if we find out it costs more.
Here in Llandudno we have had 3 years of near 10% pa council tax rises far above 5% suggested by English labour
Coming to England soon...
Already happened in Bradford.
Another cost expected to increase significantly as a result of the spending review is council tax. It is expected to rise by 5% a year to pay for local services, though at councils’ discretion. Councils will receive a 1.1% increase in grant funding, but the spending review assumes spending power for councils would rise by 2.6% because of council tax rises.
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
He disqualified himself when he said 'Israel has the right to defend itself'
Even the BBC were better informed
He's dropped the "her" for "it" though. Not behaving like a lady now.
We have two weeks of fine and dry weather ahead. So, another 15,000 could cross before this month ends.
That's a huge number and must be very noticeable in the Pas de Calais area as must all the smuggler activity and their suppliers.
It's hard to conclude the French simply want to pretend they're doing something about it, and extracting the cash, whilst hoping as many abscond to the UK as possible.
No hotels will be being used in 3 years time.....Either the government are just going to fast track them as genuine asylum claims or even buying up hotels won't be enough.
I'd prefer them to all bugger off, quite frankly.
I'm increasingly hard-line. The whole thing is bollocks.
Those who get here are largely ambitious young men who can afford thousands. It's an investment for economic migration and the business model is facilitated by absurdly broad asylum rules, legal dogma on sea and land, and a huge black economy.
It all needs sorting out. And absolutely nowhere do I read about HMG reforming the law, the migration treaties, or tooling up to repel or deport people en-masse using reasonable force.
The payment side of things is interesting. I saw a report that looked into this and yes it is true some are paying for this via loans / bonded labour, but claims for that are overstated as for a while it was an instance way to get to stay, but in reality a large chunk earn the money working in places like Italy and France.
Yes, I suspect there's all sorts of things we don't know that would shock us if known.
I can entirely believe it's done with staging payments and gaming the system.
We have two weeks of fine and dry weather ahead. So, another 15,000 could cross before this month ends.
That's a huge number and must be very noticeable in the Pas de Calais area as must all the smuggler activity and their suppliers.
It's hard to conclude the French simply want to pretend they're doing something about it, and extracting the cash, whilst hoping as many abscond to the UK as possible.
No hotels will be being used in 3 years time.....Either the government are just going to fast track them as genuine asylum claims or even buying up hotels won't be enough.
I'd prefer them to all bugger off, quite frankly.
I'm increasingly hard-line. The whole thing is bollocks.
Those who get here are largely ambitious young men who can afford thousands. It's an investment for economic migration and the business model is facilitated by absurdly broad asylum rules, legal dogma on sea and land, and a huge black economy.
It all needs sorting out. And absolutely nowhere do I read about HMG reforming the law, the migration treaties, or tooling up to repel or deport people en-masse using reasonable force.
The final list of points will be the first things Farage does when he becomes PM. I expect Lee Anderson will be the Home Sec.
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
I also think labour are learning on the job. They're certainly looking more competent than they did and Starmer is close to looking like a Prime Minister. There is something unflash about him which seems to suit the zeitgeist at the moment. If anyone's listening to the Churchill Atlee prog at the moment they might see the embryo of another Atlee
Not Flash, Just Gordon He'll be 'getting on with the job' next.
I loved that line. It was never used. The one that got away
It was used by Saatchi and Saatchi in 2007
And it could have worked if he hadn't bottled.
Mandelson managed to close the gap quite successfully from January 2010 onwards as it was, enough to deny Cameron a majority.
Another criticism that Big Dom makes in every interview is true....just shuffling the jobs around.
The survivors of the Grenfell fire have condemned “a deep and bitter injustice” that many of the officials criticised in the public inquiry in connection to the tragedy have continued working in related fields.
A somewhat strange piece on "Councill Tax ripoff" by Darren Grimes.
I can't tell whether he believes in decently funded good local services, or nor, or whether he is trying to find a political narrative to escape from having promised to square the circle by cutting lots of unnecessary expenditure that does not exist.
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
I also think labour are learning on the job. They're certainly looking more competent than they did and Starmer is close to looking like a Prime Minister. There is something unflash about him which seems to suit the zeitgeist at the moment. If anyone's listening to the Churchill Atlee prog at the moment they might see the embryo of another Atlee
Not Flash, Just Gordon He'll be 'getting on with the job' next.
I loved that line. It was never used. The one that got away
It was used by Saatchi and Saatchi in 2007
I thought the cancelled election meant that it never progressed beyond some pre publicity websites and newspaper editorials? I never saw it on a poster
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.
There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.
The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.
Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.
They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.
Having strikes going on for a year demonstrates a failure to negotiate, not the exercising of pay restraint.
I think it was much simpler than that. Inflation was running at 10%, but forecast to drop to 2% by the next year. The anchoring for any pay rise will always be a real terms increase or very least match. So the Tories thought if we just keep kicking this into the long grass we can probably get away with offering 2-3-4% and a one off payment, and claim they are giving an above inflation pay rise.
Of course Labour came in and in the likes of Louise Haigh just folded and gave the unions massive back dated rises with zero reform. So we ended up with the worst of both worlds.
We ended up with trains running every day and NHS waiting lists coming down.
Well actually no, they striking again on the railway this week and next. I had experience of it.
Also at massive cost. If you give 10% back dated that is then hard coded into the public sector salary for that job forever. If you give a one off £1000 and 3%, long term that is much less. Also zero reform to modernise working practices which were in the mix when the Tories were negotiating.
If inflation has gone up by 10% then prices are hard coded by 10% every year forever.
If pay then goes up by 10% backdated then that cancels out inflation, it is not a real terms pay rise.
Spunking money on a one-off payment just wastes money on a bandaid problem to fix issues for today while leaving a pay shortage for next year that needs fixing still.
It was quite a common ruse in the Sunak years. Kind of gets the employer out of a hole in year 1, but only by creating a bigger hole in years 2 to N.
(Is it like all those "temporary" fuel duty cuts? It allowed the fiscal rule to be met in the future, just not yet?)
Just out of interest, what does this new chairman actually believe, and why is it less serious than having someone who believes in the god of classical theism?
Are they any good at their job? If so, then personal beliefs, whether monotheism, occultism, or astrology, don't really matter.
I was quite impressed with the excuse given for trying to throttle him. I was channelling your grandmother but then some malevolent ghost intervened. As excuses go it has high novelty value.
Would that work in your court?
It's been run as a defence before, perhaps 1970s/1980s a London murder, the defence being it was done by a malign demon. The defence called a well known Roman catholic exorcist as an expert witness, whose name I forget. Defendant convicted. A now long dead Anglican exorcist I knew at the time declined to get involved.
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
He disqualified himself when he said 'Israel has the right to defend itself'
Even the BBC were better informed
He's dropped the "her" for "it" though. Not behaving like a lady now.
More significantly he seemed to have forgotten who attacked who? An amnesia the Israelis have benefitted from many times since and including 1967
We have two weeks of fine and dry weather ahead. So, another 15,000 could cross before this month ends.
That's a huge number and must be very noticeable in the Pas de Calais area as must all the smuggler activity and their suppliers.
It's hard to conclude the French simply want to pretend they're doing something about it, and extracting the cash, whilst hoping as many abscond to the UK as possible.
No hotels will be being used in 3 years time.....Either the government are just going to fast track them as genuine asylum claims or even buying up hotels won't be enough.
I'd prefer them to all bugger off, quite frankly.
I'm increasingly hard-line. The whole thing is bollocks.
Those who get here are largely ambitious young men who can afford thousands. It's an investment for economic migration and the business model is facilitated by absurdly broad asylum rules, legal dogma on sea and land, and a huge black economy.
It all needs sorting out. And absolutely nowhere do I read about HMG reforming the law, the migration treaties, or tooling up to repel or deport people en-masse using reasonable force.
The final list of points will be the first things Farage does when he becomes PM. I expect Lee Anderson will be the Home Sec.
Or, Starmer could do them now and he'd never become PM.
We have two weeks of fine and dry weather ahead. So, another 15,000 could cross before this month ends.
That's a huge number and must be very noticeable in the Pas de Calais area as must all the smuggler activity and their suppliers.
It's hard to conclude the French simply want to pretend they're doing something about it, and extracting the cash, whilst hoping as many abscond to the UK as possible.
No hotels will be being used in 3 years time.....Either the government are just going to fast track them as genuine asylum claims or even buying up hotels won't be enough.
I'd prefer them to all bugger off, quite frankly.
I'm increasingly hard-line. The whole thing is bollocks.
Those who get here are largely ambitious young men who can afford thousands. It's an investment for economic migration and the business model is facilitated by absurdly broad asylum rules, legal dogma on sea and land, and a huge black economy.
It all needs sorting out. And absolutely nowhere do I read about HMG reforming the law, the migration treaties, or tooling up to repel or deport people en-masse using reasonable force.
The payment side of things is interesting. I saw a report that looked into this and yes it is true some are paying for this via loans / bonded labour, but claims for that are overstated as for a while it was an instance way to get to stay, but in reality a large chunk earn the money working in places like Italy and France.
Yes, I suspect there's all sorts of things we don't know that would shock us if known.
I can entirely believe it's done with staging payments and gaming the system.
Not sure what you mean by "gaming the system"?
Afaik some of them (East Asians) are trafficked, some pay via loans and for many others it's their friends/family already in the UK who pay.
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
I also think labour are learning on the job. They're certainly looking more competent than they did and Starmer is close to looking like a Prime Minister. There is something unflash about him which seems to suit the zeitgeist at the moment. If anyone's listening to the Churchill Atlee prog at the moment they might see the embryo of another Atlee
Not Flash, Just Gordon He'll be 'getting on with the job' next.
I loved that line. It was never used. The one that got away
It was used by Saatchi and Saatchi in 2007
I thought the cancelled election meant that it never progressed beyond some pre publicity websites and newspaper editorials? I never saw it on a poster
per Wiki: By 16 September, an advertising campaign for the slogan had been launched by the agency, with the poster displayed on billboards and used in political adverts in preparation for a 2007 snap election.
At the Labour Party Conference held in late September, more posters for the slogan were unveiled ...
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
He disqualified himself when he said 'Israel has the right to defend itself'
Even the BBC were better informed
He's dropped the "her" for "it" though. Not behaving like a lady now.
More significantly he seemed to have forgotten who attacked who? An amnesia the Israelis have benefitted from many times since and including 1967
Iran has attacked Israel directly and indirectly for years, no decades. Iran officially calls for the destruction of Israel. Iran is seeking WMDs that could make that possible.
Yet Israel has no right to self-defence?
Do you not realise how ridiculous you sound. Pre-emptive self-defence is well established in international actions, look at Tony Blair for instance.
We have two weeks of fine and dry weather ahead. So, another 15,000 could cross before this month ends.
That's a huge number and must be very noticeable in the Pas de Calais area as must all the smuggler activity and their suppliers.
It's hard to conclude the French simply want to pretend they're doing something about it, and extracting the cash, whilst hoping as many abscond to the UK as possible.
No hotels will be being used in 3 years time.....Either the government are just going to fast track them as genuine asylum claims or even buying up hotels won't be enough.
I'd prefer them to all bugger off, quite frankly.
I'm increasingly hard-line. The whole thing is bollocks.
Those who get here are largely ambitious young men who can afford thousands. It's an investment for economic migration and the business model is facilitated by absurdly broad asylum rules, legal dogma on sea and land, and a huge black economy.
It all needs sorting out. And absolutely nowhere do I read about HMG reforming the law, the migration treaties, or tooling up to repel or deport people en-masse using reasonable force.
The payment side of things is interesting. I saw a report that looked into this and yes it is true some are paying for this via loans / bonded labour, but claims for that are overstated as for a while it was an instance way to get to stay, but in reality a large chunk earn the money working in places like Italy and France.
Yes, I suspect there's all sorts of things we don't know that would shock us if known.
I can entirely believe it's done with staging payments and gaming the system.
The amounts of money that immigrants will raise to get where they are going is an indication of the seriousness of their intent.
£15k would be the equivalent of buying a big house. To the people buying a visa via the care home racket - worth it.
Often, it is all their money, plus money from family.
Just out of interest, what does this new chairman actually believe, and why is it less serious than having someone who believes in the god of classical theism?
Are they any good at their job? If so, then personal beliefs, whether monotheism, occultism, or astrology, don't really matter.
I was quite impressed with the excuse given for trying to throttle him. I was channelling your grandmother but then some malevolent ghost intervened. As excuses go it has high novelty value.
Would that work in your court?
It's been run as a defence before, perhaps 1970s/1980s a London murder, the defence being it was done by a malign demon. The defence called a well known Roman catholic exorcist as an expert witness, whose name I forget. Defendant convicted. A now long dead Anglican exorcist I knew at the time declined to get involved.
A somewhat strange piece on "Councill Tax ripoff" by Darren Grimes.
I can't tell whether he believes in decently funded good local services, or nor, or whether he is trying to find a political narrative to escape from having promised to square the circle by cutting lots of unnecessary expenditure that does not exist.
It is convenient for Reform local councils to say that more funding should come from central government and less from local taxation. LA accountability requires a great deal more shift towards local taxation, and greater power to vary it. This chancer is perfectly well aware that Reform's bogus economics rests of transferring both responsibility and blame to anything that isn't run by Reform.
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
He disqualified himself when he said 'Israel has the right to defend itself'
Even the BBC were better informed
Yes, Roger, we all know you think that Israeli's have a right to die and no right to defend themselves.
Of course Starmer was right, every country has the right to defend itself, especially from a possible nuclear threat
Could Iran have bombed Israel for already having a nuclear weapon?
I went to watch some cricket the other week from the semi-pro league I used to play in the Stoke area. This is the league that produced people like Dominic Cork and used to high standard (not Yorkshire or Birmingham League but still very good). Most of the clubs are in really working class areas of the city. The standard is nowhere near as good as it used to be.
It is amusing to me how some of our sites most ardent Labour/Tony Blair supporters are vicious critics of what Israel is doing with regards to Iran. The rank hypocrisy absolutely stinks.
Regardless of what you think of the wisdom of the Iraq war in hindsight, when it comes to legitimacy, comparing the two side-by-side is instructive.
We claimed the right to invade Iraq due to self-defence due to their seeking WMDs (non-nuclear) Israel claims the right to bomb (not invade) Iran due to self-defence due to their seeking WMDs (nuclear).
Iraq had not attacked the UK, either directly or indirectly. Iran has repeatedly attacked Israel, both directly and indirectly.
Iraq was not seeking the destruction of the UK. Iran is seeking the destruction of Israel.
We claimed due to some controversial evidence that Iraq was seeking non-nuclear WMDs (which in hindsight was wrong). There is uncontroversial evidence that Iran is seeking nuclear WMDs.
Regardless of what you think of Israel in general, or the war in Iraq in hindsight, as far as legitimate claims to self-defence go . . . the Israeli claims of self-defence here are a million times stronger than anything Blair could claim.
We were discussing pseudonyms the other day. I think currently one of he few I know who is maintaining anonymity and not even appearing on his own videos whilst having become authoritative is Perun, the military analyst who makes his videos from Powerpoint presentations.
So let me get this right. Reform, whose adherents usually bang on about the supremacy of the 'Judeo-Christian tradition', are now being chaired by an occultist.
On-brand, though;
👻 Good news for Reform's new chairman Dr David Bull and former presenter of 'Most Haunted': our new polling finds that he's in tune with a good chunk of his party with Reform UK supporters more likely to believe in ghosts than the public as a whole
It is amusing to me how some of our sites most ardent Labour/Tony Blair supporters are vicious critics of what Israel is doing with regards to Iran. The rank hypocrisy absolutely stinks.
Regardless of what you think of the wisdom of the Iraq war in hindsight, when it comes to legitimacy, comparing the two side-by-side is instructive.
We claimed the right to invade Iraq due to self-defence due to their seeking WMDs (non-nuclear) Israel claims the right to bomb (not invade) Iran due to self-defence due to their seeking WMDs (nuclear).
Iraq had not attacked the UK, either directly or indirectly. Iran has repeatedly attacked Israel, both directly and indirectly.
Iraq was not seeking the destruction of the UK. Iran is seeking the destruction of Israel.
We claimed due to some controversial evidence that Iraq was seeking non-nuclear WMDs (which in hindsight was wrong). There is uncontroversial evidence that Iran is seeking nuclear WMDs.
Regardless of what you think of Israel in general, or the war in Iraq in hindsight, as far as legitimate claims to self-defence go . . . the Israeli claims of self-defence here are a million times stronger than anything Blair could claim.
The issue is that Bibi has forfeited the benefit of the doubt
Have to agree with the thread header. Polling at this time of a parliament is no real indicator of what’s going to happen at the next GE
I backed the Tories at just bigger than EVS about three years ago, before Party gate became news, and Boris’s cake was re-revealed, black swans if ever there were
Funny enough i almost backed Labour majority when it was about 7/1, which would have effectively have meant I was laying NOM.I certainly never considered laying it as people suggested on here. The only way I could see Sir Keir becoming PM was something crazy and catastrophic happening to the Tories, and it did.
I did back Labour at around 4 as soon as Boris left. In hindsight I should have backed it for more, but that’s easy to say now
I went to watch some cricket the other week from the semi-pro league I used to play in the Stoke area. This is the league that produced people like Dominic Cork and used to high standard (not Yorkshire or Birmingham League but still very good). Most of the clubs are in really working class areas of the city. The standard is nowhere near as good as it used to be.
One of my bugbears about the largely excellent Freddie's Field of Dreams series was its presentation of cricket as an elitist sport to which Freddie's team were an exception. Because while this is increasingly true, until relatively recently it was a pretty universal sport: indeed the 2005 team to which Freddie belonged was majority state educated. And England has a long history of working class players like Trueman and Larwood.
Next big test for RefUK: can they get into the 35-40% slot in the polls? Difficult to say atm.
If the Israel/Iran conflict escalates and the Hormuz Strait is closed/US ships targeted then we are getting another huge inflation spike and interest rates are probably on their way back up.
In such a scenario the Labour budget this autumn will be even more brutal for Reeves. It is entirely plausible that the government will hit its nadir this winter, and RefUK will increase their lead.
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
I also think labour are learning on the job. They're certainly looking more competent than they did and Starmer is close to looking like a Prime Minister. There is something unflash about him which seems to suit the zeitgeist at the moment. If anyone's listening to the Churchill Atlee prog at the moment they might see the embryo of another Atlee
Once you conclude that the LDs are Labour'ssecret ally and not a challenger, then at the moment Starmer isn't facing anyone who is any good in depth. Both in temperament and content Kemi has been much worse than I expected.
Reform's journey from right wing small state economics back to the mainstream centrism (essential for a 2029 manifesto) leaves a lot of inconsistencies for Labour to mine.
This modern Attlee isn't exactly facing Churchill across the floor is he?
Reform’s journey to mainstream centrism? Is Reform’s journey to mainstream centrism in the room with us now?
So let me get this right. Reform, whose adherents usually bang on about the supremacy of the 'Judeo-Christian tradition', are now being chaired by an occultist.
If it hadn’t been a Muslim before that might have been a zinger
It is amusing to me how some of our sites most ardent Labour/Tony Blair supporters are vicious critics of what Israel is doing with regards to Iran. The rank hypocrisy absolutely stinks.
Regardless of what you think of the wisdom of the Iraq war in hindsight, when it comes to legitimacy, comparing the two side-by-side is instructive.
We claimed the right to invade Iraq due to self-defence due to their seeking WMDs (non-nuclear) Israel claims the right to bomb (not invade) Iran due to self-defence due to their seeking WMDs (nuclear).
Iraq had not attacked the UK, either directly or indirectly. Iran has repeatedly attacked Israel, both directly and indirectly.
Iraq was not seeking the destruction of the UK. Iran is seeking the destruction of Israel.
We claimed due to some controversial evidence that Iraq was seeking non-nuclear WMDs (which in hindsight was wrong). There is uncontroversial evidence that Iran is seeking nuclear WMDs.
Regardless of what you think of Israel in general, or the war in Iraq in hindsight, as far as legitimate claims to self-defence go . . . the Israeli claims of self-defence here are a million times stronger than anything Blair could claim.
As far as I'm concerned, Israel bombing Iranian nuclear facilities, killing top generals and nuclear scientists, is fine. Israel has shown that it can carry out well-targeted strikes against those who threaten it, whilst keeping civilian casualties to a minimum.
Unfortunately, that is the opposite of what it's doing in Gaza. My conclusion is that if large numbers of civilians are being killed there, it's because the IDF wants to kill them.
It is amusing to me how some of our sites most ardent Labour/Tony Blair supporters are vicious critics of what Israel is doing with regards to Iran. The rank hypocrisy absolutely stinks.
Regardless of what you think of the wisdom of the Iraq war in hindsight, when it comes to legitimacy, comparing the two side-by-side is instructive.
We claimed the right to invade Iraq due to self-defence due to their seeking WMDs (non-nuclear) Israel claims the right to bomb (not invade) Iran due to self-defence due to their seeking WMDs (nuclear).
Iraq had not attacked the UK, either directly or indirectly. Iran has repeatedly attacked Israel, both directly and indirectly.
Iraq was not seeking the destruction of the UK. Iran is seeking the destruction of Israel.
We claimed due to some controversial evidence that Iraq was seeking non-nuclear WMDs (which in hindsight was wrong). There is uncontroversial evidence that Iran is seeking nuclear WMDs.
Regardless of what you think of Israel in general, or the war in Iraq in hindsight, as far as legitimate claims to self-defence go . . . the Israeli claims of self-defence here are a million times stronger than anything Blair could claim.
The issue is that Bibi has forfeited the benefit of the doubt
I dislike Bibi too and want him out, but that's an issue for Israelis at the next election.
It does not deprive Israel of the well-established right to self-defence against a state that has attacked it repeatedly, calls for its destruction and is seeking nuclear weapons.
Regardless of what you subjectively think of Bibi, Blair or Bush as individuals (what's with the B's?) I'd love to hear one objective reason why Israel's right to self-defence against Iran is weaker than our own right to self-defence against Iraq.
Especially given the way so many who still love Blair on this site and regard him as a great leader, are appalled by this conflict. It is pure hypocrisy.
The extremists in Israel's government sound like they're about to make the same mistakes as in Gaza.
At the moment they're clearly getting huge amounts of information from inside Iran, and Tehran is compared to the rest of the country, full of anti-government feeling.
The response of fundamentalist loony Israel Katz ? "If they continue to target the home front in Israel, Tehran will be burn, and the residents of Tehran will feel it."
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
He disqualified himself when he said 'Israel has the right to defend itself'
Even the BBC were better informed
He's dropped the "her" for "it" though. Not behaving like a lady now.
More significantly he seemed to have forgotten who attacked who? An amnesia the Israelis have benefitted from many times since and including 1967
Who attacked WHOM, Rog. I thought you were expensively educated? ;-)
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right. Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.
There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.
The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.
Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.
They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.
Having strikes going on for a year demonstrates a failure to negotiate, not the exercising of pay restraint.
Remind us how well the doctors pay award of 22% worked out exactly seeing as they are now balloting for 29% less than a year later? I fully expect the ballot to come back for a strike in July and have no doubt once more starmer will pay them off
The extremists in Israel's government sound like they're about to make the same mistakes as in Gaza.
At the moment they're clearly getting huge amounts of information from inside Iran, and Tehran is compared to the rest of the country, full of anti-government feeling.
The response of fundamentalist loony Israel Katz ? "If they continue to target the home front in Israel, Tehran will be burn, and the residents of Tehran will feel it."
It is amusing to me how some of our sites most ardent Labour/Tony Blair supporters are vicious critics of what Israel is doing with regards to Iran. The rank hypocrisy absolutely stinks.
Regardless of what you think of the wisdom of the Iraq war in hindsight, when it comes to legitimacy, comparing the two side-by-side is instructive.
We claimed the right to invade Iraq due to self-defence due to their seeking WMDs (non-nuclear) Israel claims the right to bomb (not invade) Iran due to self-defence due to their seeking WMDs (nuclear).
Iraq had not attacked the UK, either directly or indirectly. Iran has repeatedly attacked Israel, both directly and indirectly.
Iraq was not seeking the destruction of the UK. Iran is seeking the destruction of Israel.
We claimed due to some controversial evidence that Iraq was seeking non-nuclear WMDs (which in hindsight was wrong). There is uncontroversial evidence that Iran is seeking nuclear WMDs.
Regardless of what you think of Israel in general, or the war in Iraq in hindsight, as far as legitimate claims to self-defence go . . . the Israeli claims of self-defence here are a million times stronger than anything Blair could claim.
The issue is that Bibi has forfeited the benefit of the doubt
I dislike Bibi too and want him out, but that's an issue for Israelis at the next election.
It does not deprive Israel of the well-established right to self-defence against a state that has attacked it repeatedly, calls for its destruction and is seeking nuclear weapons.
Regardless of what you subjectively think of Bibi, Blair or Bush as individuals (what's with the B's?) I'd love to hear one objective reason why Israel's right to self-defence against Iran is weaker than our own right to self-defence against Iraq.
Especially given the way so many who still love Blair on this site and regard him as a great leader, are appalled by this conflict. It is pure hypocrisy.
2 things here:
1. I’d guess most of those who love Blair (I’m not sure who they are but I’m sure there are some on here) think he was a great PM except for his disastrous war in Iraq
2. I doubt many here are appalled by what Israel is doing in Iran. I think the vast majority of us, from either left or right, are appalled by what Israel is doing to Gaza.
I went to watch some cricket the other week from the semi-pro league I used to play in the Stoke area. This is the league that produced people like Dominic Cork and used to high standard (not Yorkshire or Birmingham League but still very good). Most of the clubs are in really working class areas of the city. The standard is nowhere near as good as it used to be.
One of my bugbears about the largely excellent Freddie's Field of Dreams series was its presentation of cricket as an elitist sport to which Freddie's team were an exception. Because while this is increasingly true, until relatively recently it was a pretty universal sport: indeed the 2005 team to which Freddie belonged was majority state educated. And England has a long history of working class players like Trueman and Larwood.
Indeed so, of the Bodyline tour, the main protagonists with the ball Larwood and Bill Voce were both Working class lads from the Notts coalfields and Bill Bowes who got Bradman for a duck in the first Bodyline test was from a very ordinary Yorkshire railway family learning cricket from playing in the street
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
He disqualified himself when he said 'Israel has the right to defend itself'
Even the BBC were better informed
He's dropped the "her" for "it" though. Not behaving like a lady now.
More significantly he seemed to have forgotten who attacked who? An amnesia the Israelis have benefitted from many times since and including 1967
Iran has attacked Israel directly and indirectly for years, no decades. Iran officially calls for the destruction of Israel. Iran is seeking WMDs that could make that possible.
Yet Israel has no right to self-defence?
Do you not realise how ridiculous you sound. Pre-emptive self-defence is well established in international actions, look at Tony Blair for instance.
Israel has attacked Iran directly and indirectly for years, no decades. Israel officially calls for regime change in Iran. Israel has WMDs that could make that possible.
I went to watch some cricket the other week from the semi-pro league I used to play in the Stoke area. This is the league that produced people like Dominic Cork and used to high standard (not Yorkshire or Birmingham League but still very good). Most of the clubs are in really working class areas of the city. The standard is nowhere near as good as it used to be.
One of my bugbears about the largely excellent Freddie's Field of Dreams series was its presentation of cricket as an elitist sport to which Freddie's team were an exception. Because while this is increasingly true, until relatively recently it was a pretty universal sport: indeed the 2005 team to which Freddie belonged was majority state educated. And England has a long history of working class players like Trueman and Larwood.
Indeed so, of the Bodyline tour, the main protagonists with the ball Larwood and Bill Voce were both Working class lads from the Notts coalfields and Bill Bowes who got Bradman for a duck in the first Bodyline test was from a very ordinary Yorkshire railway family learning cricket from playing in the street
ISTR Larwood honed his craft by bowling with lumps of coal.
I haven't done a detailed analysis of this, but right up until as late as 2005, there seemed to be a notable posh/not posh split between batsmen and bowlers. Perhaps because batsmen need more kit to practice with, while all a bowler needs is a lump of coal.
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
He disqualified himself when he said 'Israel has the right to defend itself'
Even the BBC were better informed
He's dropped the "her" for "it" though. Not behaving like a lady now.
More significantly he seemed to have forgotten who attacked who? An amnesia the Israelis have benefitted from many times since and including 1967
Iran has attacked Israel directly and indirectly for years, no decades. Iran officially calls for the destruction of Israel. Iran is seeking WMDs that could make that possible.
Yet Israel has no right to self-defence?
Do you not realise how ridiculous you sound. Pre-emptive self-defence is well established in international actions, look at Tony Blair for instance.
Israel has attacked Iran directly and indirectly for years, no decades. Israel officially calls for regime change in Iran. Israel has WMDs that could make that possible.
Are those also true?
Yes. What of it?
If Iran wants to start a war with Israel it can, and again then Israel too would have the right to self defence.
It is amusing to me how some of our sites most ardent Labour/Tony Blair supporters are vicious critics of what Israel is doing with regards to Iran. The rank hypocrisy absolutely stinks.
Regardless of what you think of the wisdom of the Iraq war in hindsight, when it comes to legitimacy, comparing the two side-by-side is instructive.
We claimed the right to invade Iraq due to self-defence due to their seeking WMDs (non-nuclear) Israel claims the right to bomb (not invade) Iran due to self-defence due to their seeking WMDs (nuclear).
Iraq had not attacked the UK, either directly or indirectly. Iran has repeatedly attacked Israel, both directly and indirectly.
Iraq was not seeking the destruction of the UK. Iran is seeking the destruction of Israel.
We claimed due to some controversial evidence that Iraq was seeking non-nuclear WMDs (which in hindsight was wrong). There is uncontroversial evidence that Iran is seeking nuclear WMDs.
Regardless of what you think of Israel in general, or the war in Iraq in hindsight, as far as legitimate claims to self-defence go . . . the Israeli claims of self-defence here are a million times stronger than anything Blair could claim.
The UK’s claim to attack Iraq was more specifically that Iraq had broken a UN Security Council resolution.
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
He disqualified himself when he said 'Israel has the right to defend itself'
Even the BBC were better informed
He's dropped the "her" for "it" though. Not behaving like a lady now.
More significantly he seemed to have forgotten who attacked who? An amnesia the Israelis have benefitted from many times since and including 1967
Iran has attacked Israel directly and indirectly for years, no decades. Iran officially calls for the destruction of Israel. Iran is seeking WMDs that could make that possible.
Yet Israel has no right to self-defence?
Do you not realise how ridiculous you sound. Pre-emptive self-defence is well established in international actions, look at Tony Blair for instance.
Israel has attacked Iran directly and indirectly for years, no decades. Israel officially calls for regime change in Iran. Israel has WMDs that could make that possible.
Are those also true?
Yes. What of it?
If Iran wants to start a war with Israel it can, and again then Israel too would have the right to self defence.
Either way, Israel has the right to self defence.
Maybe there’s a better approach to international relations that involves less starting wars?
So let me get this right. Reform, whose adherents usually bang on about the supremacy of the 'Judeo-Christian tradition', are now being chaired by an occultist.
We were discussing pseudonyms the other day. I think currently one of he few I know who is maintaining anonymity and not even appearing on his own videos whilst having become authoritative is Perun, the military analyst who makes his videos from Powerpoint presentations.
[0] His forename (cody) is known [1] His face is not in his videos but occasionally in his shorts [2] I dislike his video game reviews (I am not a gamer) but his hardware stuff is enjoyable [3] Started by one guy, who now spends his time producing "The Sojourn". The newer presenter is anonymous and goes by "hoojiwana"
Comments
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/cricket/icc-world-test-championship/south-africa-v-australia-betting-34320359
Of course Labour came in and in the likes of Louise Haigh just folded and gave the unions massive back dated rises with zero reform. So we ended up with the worst of both worlds.
Israel has the absolute right to self-defence - and he has the audacity to say they do not? He said their name yes, but he said it wrong.
Also at massive cost. If you give 10% back dated that is then hard coded into the public sector salary for that job forever. If you give a one off £1000 and 3%, long term that is much less. Also zero reform to modernise working practices which were in the mix when the Tories were negotiating.
They were also negotiating. If, say, the Conservatives and Hunt had won again they'd have had to settle at a lower figure because they couldn't strike for 5 years.
They should have just met inflation as they did with welfare . . . or said "we're all in it together" and given nobody, including their client vote, the inflationary rise.
Instead they did the worst of both worlds and you can't blame Labour for fixing their mess.
We have two weeks of fine and dry weather ahead. So, another 15,000 could cross before this month ends.
That's a huge number and must be very noticeable in the Pas de Calais area as must all the smuggler activity and their suppliers.
It's hard to conclude the French simply want to pretend they're doing something about it, and extracting the cash, whilst hoping as many abscond to the UK as possible.
'Four and twenty virgins went down to Inverness.
When the ball was over there were four and twenty less....'
I just enjoy calling you out for fun.
With GE29 I'm not (yet) hearing the music. My sense is Labour are tracking to win again (and 2.5 is decent imo) but it's a tentative sort of opinion. Barely an opinion at all, really, and I'm not even close to betting on it. Speaking of betting, a Kemi Badenoch 2025 exit as Con leader is a Not Happening Event and I was pleased to be able to lay it at an absurdly short 2.7. It remains (lay) value at 4.5 imo.
If pay then goes up by 10% backdated then that cancels out inflation, it is not a real terms pay rise.
Spunking money on a one-off payment just wastes money on a bandaid problem to fix issues for today while leaving a pay shortage for next year that needs fixing still.
My current sense FWIW is we are headed for a weak Minority govt and back to the polls within a year where votes will coalesce and we will get either a small majority or a strong minority supported by C and S/strong opposition result
I'm increasingly hard-line. The whole thing is bollocks.
Those who get here are largely ambitious young men who can afford thousands. It's an investment for economic migration and the business model is facilitated by absurdly broad asylum rules, legal dogma on sea and land, and a huge black economy.
It all needs sorting out. And absolutely nowhere do I read about HMG reforming the law, the migration treaties, or tooling up to repel or deport people en-masse using reasonable force.
Managing demands in the future will be more problematic, since eg the Doctors organisations have based their claims on RPI inflation, and want recovery to implied levels from 14-15 years ago. I'd be quite rude about the basis of that claim.
Another cost expected to increase significantly as a result of the spending review is council tax. It is expected to rise by 5% a year to pay for local services, though at councils’ discretion. Councils will receive a 1.1% increase in grant funding, but the spending review assumes spending power for councils would rise by 2.6% because of council tax rises.
Guardian
I can entirely believe it's done with staging payments and gaming the system.
Mandelson managed to close the gap quite successfully from January 2010 onwards as it was, enough to deny Cameron a majority.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/14/dominic-cummings-grooming-gangs-scandal-national-inquiry/
Another criticism that Big Dom makes in every interview is true....just shuffling the jobs around.
The survivors of the Grenfell fire have condemned “a deep and bitter injustice” that many of the officials criticised in the public inquiry in connection to the tragedy have continued working in related fields.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jun/14/a-slap-in-the-face-grenfell-officials-still-working-in-housing-eight-years-after-fire
I can't tell whether he believes in decently funded good local services, or nor, or whether he is trying to find a political narrative to escape from having promised to square the circle by cutting lots of unnecessary expenditure that does not exist.
Nice and short for him, however.
https://www.darrengrimes.com/p/labours-great-council-tax-swindle
(Is it like all those "temporary" fuel duty cuts? It allowed the fiscal rule to be met in the future, just not yet?)
Bovine excrement hitting the rotatory cooling device is more likely.
Make of it what you will.
That's the choice.
Afaik some of them (East Asians) are trafficked, some pay via loans and for many others it's their friends/family already in the UK who pay.
By 16 September, an advertising campaign for the slogan had been launched by the agency, with the poster displayed on billboards and used in political adverts in preparation for a 2007 snap election.
At the Labour Party Conference held in late September, more posters for the slogan were unveiled ...
Iran officially calls for the destruction of Israel.
Iran is seeking WMDs that could make that possible.
Yet Israel has no right to self-defence?
Do you not realise how ridiculous you sound. Pre-emptive self-defence is well established in international actions, look at Tony Blair for instance.
£15k would be the equivalent of buying a big house. To the people buying a visa via the care home racket - worth it.
Often, it is all their money, plus money from family.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2025/06/14/cricket-leaving-working-class-white-kids-behind/
It is convenient for Reform local councils to say that more funding should come from central government and less from local taxation. LA accountability requires a great deal more shift towards local taxation, and greater power to vary it. This chancer is perfectly well aware that Reform's bogus economics rests of transferring both responsibility and blame to anything that isn't run by Reform.
It is the new SNP.
That show had some amazing secondary character.
Huge spoilers, but this is one of my favourite Trek scenes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ea1AJKnPVO8
Regardless of what you think of the wisdom of the Iraq war in hindsight, when it comes to legitimacy, comparing the two side-by-side is instructive.
We claimed the right to invade Iraq due to self-defence due to their seeking WMDs (non-nuclear)
Israel claims the right to bomb (not invade) Iran due to self-defence due to their seeking WMDs (nuclear).
Iraq had not attacked the UK, either directly or indirectly.
Iran has repeatedly attacked Israel, both directly and indirectly.
Iraq was not seeking the destruction of the UK.
Iran is seeking the destruction of Israel.
We claimed due to some controversial evidence that Iraq was seeking non-nuclear WMDs (which in hindsight was wrong).
There is uncontroversial evidence that Iran is seeking nuclear WMDs.
Regardless of what you think of Israel in general, or the war in Iraq in hindsight, as far as legitimate claims to self-defence go . . . the Israeli claims of self-defence here are a million times stronger than anything Blair could claim.
https://www.youtube.com/asianometry
I backed the Tories at just bigger than EVS about three years ago, before Party gate became news, and Boris’s cake was re-revealed, black swans if ever there were
Funny enough i almost backed Labour majority when it was about 7/1, which would have effectively have meant I was laying NOM.I certainly never considered laying it as people suggested on here. The only way I could see Sir Keir becoming PM was something crazy and catastrophic happening to the Tories, and it did.
I did back Labour at around 4 as soon as Boris left. In hindsight I should have backed it for more, but that’s easy to say now
In such a scenario the Labour budget this autumn will be even more brutal for Reeves. It is entirely plausible that the government will hit its nadir this winter, and RefUK will increase their lead.
Unfortunately, that is the opposite of what it's doing in Gaza. My conclusion is that if large numbers of civilians are being killed there, it's because the IDF wants to kill them.
It does not deprive Israel of the well-established right to self-defence against a state that has attacked it repeatedly, calls for its destruction and is seeking nuclear weapons.
Regardless of what you subjectively think of Bibi, Blair or Bush as individuals (what's with the B's?) I'd love to hear one objective reason why Israel's right to self-defence against Iran is weaker than our own right to self-defence against Iraq.
Especially given the way so many who still love Blair on this site and regard him as a great leader, are appalled by this conflict. It is pure hypocrisy.
At the moment they're clearly getting huge amounts of information from inside Iran, and Tehran is compared to the rest of the country, full of anti-government feeling.
The response of fundamentalist loony Israel Katz ? "If they continue to target the home front in Israel, Tehran will be burn, and the residents of Tehran will feel it."
I believe in neither gods nor ghosts, but it seems inconsistent to mock belief in one and not the other.
NTNON had a good sketch on that:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTv5ckMe_2M
1. I’d guess most of those who love Blair (I’m not sure who they are but I’m sure there are some on here) think he was a great PM except for his disastrous war in Iraq
2. I doubt many here are appalled by what Israel is doing in Iran. I think the vast majority of us, from either left or right, are appalled by what Israel is doing to Gaza.
Israel officially calls for regime change in Iran.
Israel has WMDs that could make that possible.
Are those also true?
I haven't done a detailed analysis of this, but right up until as late as 2005, there seemed to be a notable posh/not posh split between batsmen and bowlers. Perhaps because batsmen need more kit to practice with, while all a bowler needs is a lump of coal.
If Iran wants to start a war with Israel it can, and again then Israel too would have the right to self defence.
Either way, Israel has the right to self defence.
https://www.youtube.com/@AlternateHistoryHub [0]
https://www.youtube.com/@PointlessHub
https://www.youtube.com/@BattleOrder
https://www.youtube.com/@CaspianReport
https://www.youtube.com/@Kamome163
https://www.youtube.com/@Kraut_the_Parrot [1]
https://www.youtube.com/@polyus_studios
https://www.youtube.com/@XboxAhoy [2]
https://www.youtube.com/@RedWrenchFilms
https://www.youtube.com/@SkyshipsEng
https://www.youtube.com/@Horizoneng
https://www.youtube.com/@Spacedock [3]
https://www.youtube.com/@Strategy_Analysis
https://www.youtube.com/@TrashTheory
https://www.youtube.com/@WarshipsAndWarriors
[0] His forename (cody) is known
[1] His face is not in his videos but occasionally in his shorts
[2] I dislike his video game reviews (I am not a gamer) but his hardware stuff is enjoyable
[3] Started by one guy, who now spends his time producing "The Sojourn". The newer presenter is anonymous and goes by "hoojiwana"