Three years is a long time in politics – politicalbetting.com

Casino_Royale said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.

Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.

Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.

The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.

Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.

I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.

They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.

Theuniondivvie said:

After Bibi’s mostly peaceful smiting of the Amalekites, more evidence that he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.

Congressman Randy Fine
@RepFine
I want to congratulate @Israel on its mostly peaceful bombing of Iran.

https://x.com/repfine/status/1933540737519362300?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

BartholomewRoberts said:

Roger said:

DavidL said:

Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.

He disqualified himself when he said 'Israel has the right to defend itself'

Even the BBC were better informed

Yes, Roger, we all know you think that Israeli's have a right to die and no right to defend themselves.

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_xP said:

DavidL said:

Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.

Worse than that, they seem to have ignored this guy...

@JohnSwinney

The horrendously dangerous situation in Iran must stop. The International community must bring Israel to account and halt this latest escalation of conflict in the Middle East.

At least he had the balls to mention Israel, a name conspicuously absent from most of the piety emanating from Labour.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

Casino_Royale said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.

Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.

Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.

The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.

Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.

I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.

They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.

My parents are probably going to get the winter fuel allowance again, and they most definitely don't need it. Good example of what's going wrong atm.

In a round about way asset rich pensioners are going to end up paying more in tax than they get in the winter fuel allowance due to large council tax rises over the next few years. But by means testing the WFA it won't save any money at all after the extra paper pushing admin has been factored in....wouldn't even be surprised if we find out it costs more.

Here in Llandudno we have had 3 years of near 10% pa council tax rises far above 5% suggested by English labour

wooliedyed said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

wooliedyed said:

Roger said:

I notice that findoutnow's latest six weekly polls have gone from a 13 point Reform lead to a 6 point one going down in each successive poll. 13,12,11,10,9,6

Could it be that findoutnow are trying to moderate their polls to fall in line with more established pollsters or are Reform finally being found out (excuse the pun)?

Find Out Now were the most accurate pollster for the May Mayoralties so I doubt they feel the need to adjust their methodology. Its just that Reform have plateaued and there's a bit of noise

Good morning

The locals have been terrible for labour with many easy reform wins

However, I agree with the header and it is impossible to predict the next GE at this time.

Events, especially unexpected ones, come along and may derail governments though they may do the opposite, so whilst we cannot rule out a labour win with a reduced majority, we also cannot rule out a 'conservative like experience in 2024' and labour being trounced

Mind you, I just do not see PM Farage, certainly with a majority and I expect that unless Kemi recovers the conservative polling then she will not be leader this time next year post the Senedd and Holyrood elections

Now who replaces her from a list of Jenrick, Cleverly, Stride, Hunt, Mordaunt, or even (God forbid) Boris is anyone's guess.

Maybe ANO

Labour got so badly humped on May 1 that they only led in 3 of the seats where wards were contested losing oodles to Reform and even the Tories. Its all headwinds from here, the PIP debacle next up as a flashpoint.
Yeah Kemi needs a solid third in Wales or Scotland and to hold on to some councils plus get polling back into the mid 20s or a challenge next year is certain.
Labour may recover of course but that will be at the expense of LD and Green votes which unless it really takes off isnt going to scare Reform or the Tories as much

wooliedyed said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

wooliedyed said:

Roger said:

I notice that findoutnow's latest six weekly polls have gone from a 13 point Reform lead to a 6 point one going down in each successive poll. 13,12,11,10,9,6

Could it be that findoutnow are trying to moderate their polls to fall in line with more established pollsters or are Reform finally being found out (excuse the pun)?

Find Out Now were the most accurate pollster for the May Mayoralties so I doubt they feel the need to adjust their methodology. Its just that Reform have plateaued and there's a bit of noise

Good morning

The locals have been terrible for labour with many easy reform wins

However, I agree with the header and it is impossible to predict the next GE at this time.

Events, especially unexpected ones, come along and may derail governments though they may do the opposite, so whilst we cannot rule out a labour win with a reduced majority, we also cannot rule out a 'conservative like experience in 2024' and labour being trounced

Mind you, I just do not see PM Farage, certainly with a majority and I expect that unless Kemi recovers the conservative polling then she will not be leader this time next year post the Senedd and Holyrood elections

Now who replaces her from a list of Jenrick, Cleverly, Stride, Hunt, Mordaunt, or even (God forbid) Boris is anyone's guess.

Maybe ANO

Labour got so badly humped on May 1 that they only led in 3 of the seats where wards were contested losing oodles to Reform and even the Tories. Its all headwinds from here, the PIP debacle next up as a flashpoint.
Yeah Kemi needs a solid third in Wales or Scotland and to hold on to some councils plus get polling back into the mid 20s or a challenge next year is certain.
Labour may recover of course but that will be at the expense of LD and Green votes which unless it really takes off isnt going to scare Reform or the Tories as much

Sean_F said:

wooliedyed said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

wooliedyed said:

Roger said:

I notice that findoutnow's latest six weekly polls have gone from a 13 point Reform lead to a 6 point one going down in each successive poll. 13,12,11,10,9,6

Could it be that findoutnow are trying to moderate their polls to fall in line with more established pollsters or are Reform finally being found out (excuse the pun)?

Find Out Now were the most accurate pollster for the May Mayoralties so I doubt they feel the need to adjust their methodology. Its just that Reform have plateaued and there's a bit of noise

Good morning

The locals have been terrible for labour with many easy reform wins

However, I agree with the header and it is impossible to predict the next GE at this time.

Events, especially unexpected ones, come along and may derail governments though they may do the opposite, so whilst we cannot rule out a labour win with a reduced majority, we also cannot rule out a 'conservative like experience in 2024' and labour being trounced

Mind you, I just do not see PM Farage, certainly with a majority and I expect that unless Kemi recovers the conservative polling then she will not be leader this time next year post the Senedd and Holyrood elections

Now who replaces her from a list of Jenrick, Cleverly, Stride, Hunt, Mordaunt, or even (God forbid) Boris is anyone's guess.

Maybe ANO

Labour got so badly humped on May 1 that they only led in 3 of the seats where wards were contested losing oodles to Reform and even the Tories. Its all headwinds from here, the PIP debacle next up as a flashpoint.
Yeah Kemi needs a solid third in Wales or Scotland and to hold on to some councils plus get polling back into the mid 20s or a challenge next year is certain.
Labour may recover of course but that will be at the expense of LD and Green votes which unless it really takes off isnt going to scare Reform or the Tories as much

wooliedyed said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

wooliedyed said:

Roger said:

I notice that findoutnow's latest six weekly polls have gone from a 13 point Reform lead to a 6 point one going down in each successive poll. 13,12,11,10,9,6

Could it be that findoutnow are trying to moderate their polls to fall in line with more established pollsters or are Reform finally being found out (excuse the pun)?

Find Out Now were the most accurate pollster for the May Mayoralties so I doubt they feel the need to adjust their methodology. Its just that Reform have plateaued and there's a bit of noise

Good morning

The locals have been terrible for labour with many easy reform wins

However, I agree with the header and it is impossible to predict the next GE at this time.

Events, especially unexpected ones, come along and may derail governments though they may do the opposite, so whilst we cannot rule out a labour win with a reduced majority, we also cannot rule out a 'conservative like experience in 2024' and labour being trounced

Mind you, I just do not see PM Farage, certainly with a majority and I expect that unless Kemi recovers the conservative polling then she will not be leader this time next year post the Senedd and Holyrood elections

Now who replaces her from a list of Jenrick, Cleverly, Stride, Hunt, Mordaunt, or even (God forbid) Boris is anyone's guess.

Maybe ANO

Labour got so badly humped on May 1 that they only led in 3 of the seats where wards were contested losing oodles to Reform and even the Tories. Its all headwinds from here, the PIP debacle next up as a flashpoint.
Yeah Kemi needs a solid third in Wales or Scotland and to hold on to some councils plus get polling back into the mid 20s or a challenge next year is certain.
Labour may recover of course but that will be at the expense of LD and Green votes which unless it really takes off isnt going to scare Reform or the Tories as much

The next three rounds of local elections should be excellent for Reform.

Andy_JS said:

BBC: 900 migrants crossed the channel yesterday.

SandyRentool said:

Casino_Royale said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.

Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.

Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.

The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.

Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.

I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.

They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.

Having strikes going on for a year demonstrates a failure to negotiate, not the exercising of pay restraint.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_xP said:

DavidL said:

Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.

Worse than that, they seem to have ignored this guy...

@JohnSwinney

The horrendously dangerous situation in Iran must stop. The International community must bring Israel to account and halt this latest escalation of conflict in the Middle East.

At least he had the balls to mention Israel, a name conspicuously absent from most of the piety emanating from Labour.

Israel are doing the right thing in preventing Iran from having nukes, when Iran has the stated goal of wiping out Israel and has been attacking Israel directly and indirectly for decades.

Israel has the absolute right to self-defence - and he has the audacity to say they do not? He said their name yes, but he said it wrong.

Andy_JS said:

BBC: 900 migrants crossed the channel yesterday.

FrancisUrquhart said:

SandyRentool said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SandyRentool said:

Casino_Royale said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.

Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.

Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.

The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.

Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.

I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.

They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.

Having strikes going on for a year demonstrates a failure to negotiate, not the exercising of pay restraint.

I think it was much simpler than that. Inflation was running at 10%, but forecast to drop to 2% by the next year. The anchoring for any pay rise will always be a real terms increase or very least match. So the Tories thought if we just keep kicking this into the long grass we can probably get away with offering 2-3-4% and a one off payment, and claim they are giving an above inflation pay rise.

Of course Labour came in and in the likes of Louise Haigh just folded and gave the unions massive back dated rises with zero reform. So we ended up with the worst of both worlds.

We ended up with trains running every day and NHS waiting lists coming down.

Well actually no, they striking again on the railway this week and next. I had experience of it.

Also at massive cost. If you give 10% back dated that is then hard coded into the public sector salary for that job forever. If you give a one off £1000 and 3%, long term that is much less. Also zero reform to modernise working practices which were in the mix when the Tories were negotiating.

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_JS said:

BBC: 900 migrants crossed the channel yesterday.

This is now becoming normalised.

We have two weeks of fine and dry weather ahead. So, another 15,000 could cross before this month ends.

That's a huge number and must be very noticeable in the Pas de Calais area as must all the smuggler activity and their suppliers.

It's hard to conclude the French simply want to pretend they're doing something about it, and extracting the cash, whilst hoping as many abscond to the UK as possible.

wooliedyed said:

Good morning.
The 'Reform to win' narrative is on the back of a couple of months of good polling - SDP 81 styley. All the MRPs prior to April showed a variety of hung parliaments with Ref, Con, Lab all getting a chunk of seats and LDs holding on to a chunk of their gains.
Local election results suggest there will be a great number of very closely fought seats won on about 30% of the vote. The parties that best identify their 150 to 200 best seats and get the vote out will do just fine, even on 20% of the national vote (if we go into the election with 5 parties on 8% plus, all under 30 like now).
Id not want to even think about how it might look until we see where they are all polling best in councils and VI nearer the time.

wooliedyed said:

Roger said:

Pulpstar said:

Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.

I also think labour are learning on the job. They're certainly looking more competent than they did and Starmer is close to looking like a Prime Minister. There is something unflash about him which seems to suit the zeitgeist at the moment. If anyone's listening to the Churchill Atlee prog at the moment they might see the embryo of another Atlee

Not Flash, Just Gordon
He'll be 'getting on with the job' next.

FrancisUrquhart said:

SandyRentool said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SandyRentool said:

Casino_Royale said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.

Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.

Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.

The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.

Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.

I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.

They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.

Having strikes going on for a year demonstrates a failure to negotiate, not the exercising of pay restraint.

I think it was much simpler than that. Inflation was running at 10%, but forecast to drop to 2% by the next year. The anchoring for any pay rise will always be a real terms increase or very least match. So the Tories thought if we just keep kicking this into the long grass we can probably get away with offering 2-3-4% and a one off payment, and claim they are giving an above inflation pay rise.

Of course Labour came in and in the likes of Louise Haigh just folded and gave the unions massive back dated rises with zero reform. So we ended up with the worst of both worlds.

We ended up with trains running every day and NHS waiting lists coming down.

Well actually no, they striking again on the railway this week and next. I had experience of it.

Also at massive cost. If you give 10% back dated that is then hard coded into the public sector salary for that job forever. If you give a one off £1000 and 3%, long term that is much less. Also zero reform to modernise working practices which were in the mix when the Tories were negotiating.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_JS said:

BBC: 900 migrants crossed the channel yesterday.

This is now becoming normalised.

We have two weeks of fine and dry weather ahead. So, another 15,000 could cross before this month ends.

That's a huge number and must be very noticeable in the Pas de Calais area as must all the smuggler activity and their suppliers.

It's hard to conclude the French simply want to pretend they're doing something about it, and extracting the cash, whilst hoping as many abscond to the UK as possible.

No hotels will be being used in 3 years time.....Either the government are just going to fast track them as genuine asylum claims or even buying up hotels won't be enough.

Casino_Royale said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SandyRentool said:

Casino_Royale said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.

Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.

Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.

The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.

Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.

I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.

They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.

Having strikes going on for a year demonstrates a failure to negotiate, not the exercising of pay restraint.

I think it was much simpler than that. Inflation was running at 10%, but forecast to drop to 2% by the next year. The anchoring for any pay rise will always be a real terms increase or very least match. So the Tories thought if we just keep kicking this into the long grass we can probably get away with offering 2-3-4% and a one off payment, and claim they are giving an above inflation pay rise.

Of course Labour came in and in the likes of Louise Haigh just folded and gave the unions massive back dated rises with zero reform. So we ended up with the worst of both worlds.

Folded from our point of view but, from hers, maybe rewarding and building her base.

SandyRentool said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

Casino_Royale said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.

Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.

Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.

The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.

Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.

I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.

They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.

My parents are probably going to get the winter fuel allowance again, and they most definitely don't need it. Good example of what's going wrong atm.

In a round about way asset rich pensioners are going to end up paying more in tax than they get in the winter fuel allowance due to large council tax rises over the next few years. But by means testing the WFA it won't save any money at all after the extra paper pushing admin has been factored in....wouldn't even be surprised if we find out it costs more.

Here in Llandudno we have had 3 years of near 10% pa council tax rises far above 5% suggested by English labour

Coming to England soon...

Already happened in Bradford.

Roger said:

DavidL said:

Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.

He disqualified himself when he said 'Israel has the right to defend itself'

Even the BBC were better informed

Casino_Royale said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_JS said:

BBC: 900 migrants crossed the channel yesterday.

This is now becoming normalised.

We have two weeks of fine and dry weather ahead. So, another 15,000 could cross before this month ends.

That's a huge number and must be very noticeable in the Pas de Calais area as must all the smuggler activity and their suppliers.

It's hard to conclude the French simply want to pretend they're doing something about it, and extracting the cash, whilst hoping as many abscond to the UK as possible.

No hotels will be being used in 3 years time.....Either the government are just going to fast track them as genuine asylum claims or even buying up hotels won't be enough.

I'd prefer them to all bugger off, quite frankly.

I'm increasingly hard-line. The whole thing is bollocks.

Those who get here are largely ambitious young men who can afford thousands. It's an investment for economic migration and the business model is facilitated by absurdly broad asylum rules, legal dogma on sea and land, and a huge black economy.

It all needs sorting out. And absolutely nowhere do I read about HMG reforming the law, the migration treaties, or tooling up to repel or deport people en-masse using reasonable force.

BartholomewRoberts said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SandyRentool said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SandyRentool said:

Casino_Royale said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.

Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.

Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.

The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.

Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.

I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.

They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.

Having strikes going on for a year demonstrates a failure to negotiate, not the exercising of pay restraint.

I think it was much simpler than that. Inflation was running at 10%, but forecast to drop to 2% by the next year. The anchoring for any pay rise will always be a real terms increase or very least match. So the Tories thought if we just keep kicking this into the long grass we can probably get away with offering 2-3-4% and a one off payment, and claim they are giving an above inflation pay rise.

Of course Labour came in and in the likes of Louise Haigh just folded and gave the unions massive back dated rises with zero reform. So we ended up with the worst of both worlds.

We ended up with trains running every day and NHS waiting lists coming down.

Well actually no, they striking again on the railway this week and next. I had experience of it.

Also at massive cost. If you give 10% back dated that is then hard coded into the public sector salary for that job forever. If you give a one off £1000 and 3%, long term that is much less. Also zero reform to modernise working practices which were in the mix when the Tories were negotiating.

If inflation has gone up by 10% then prices are hard coded by 10% every year forever.

If pay then goes up by 10% backdated then that cancels out inflation, it is not a real terms pay rise.

Spunking money on a one-off payment just wastes money on a bandaid problem to fix issues for today while leaving a pay shortage for next year that needs fixing still.

StillWaters said:

DavidL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Just out of interest, what does this new chairman actually believe, and why is it less serious than having someone who believes in the god of classical theism?

Are they any good at their job? If so, then personal beliefs, whether monotheism, occultism, or astrology, don't really matter.

I was quite impressed with the excuse given for trying to throttle him. I was channelling your grandmother but then some malevolent ghost intervened. As excuses go it has high novelty value.

Would that work in your court?

kinabalu said:

Roger said:

DavidL said:

Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.

He disqualified himself when he said 'Israel has the right to defend itself'

Even the BBC were better informed

He's dropped the "her" for "it" though. Not behaving like a lady now.

Casino_Royale said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Casino_Royale said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_JS said:

BBC: 900 migrants crossed the channel yesterday.

This is now becoming normalised.

We have two weeks of fine and dry weather ahead. So, another 15,000 could cross before this month ends.

That's a huge number and must be very noticeable in the Pas de Calais area as must all the smuggler activity and their suppliers.

It's hard to conclude the French simply want to pretend they're doing something about it, and extracting the cash, whilst hoping as many abscond to the UK as possible.

No hotels will be being used in 3 years time.....Either the government are just going to fast track them as genuine asylum claims or even buying up hotels won't be enough.

I'd prefer them to all bugger off, quite frankly.

I'm increasingly hard-line. The whole thing is bollocks.

Those who get here are largely ambitious young men who can afford thousands. It's an investment for economic migration and the business model is facilitated by absurdly broad asylum rules, legal dogma on sea and land, and a huge black economy.

It all needs sorting out. And absolutely nowhere do I read about HMG reforming the law, the migration treaties, or tooling up to repel or deport people en-masse using reasonable force.

The payment side of things is interesting. I saw a report that looked into this and yes it is true some are paying for this via loans / bonded labour, but claims for that are overstated as for a while it was an instance way to get to stay, but in reality a large chunk earn the money working in places like Italy and France.

Yes, I suspect there's all sorts of things we don't know that would shock us if known.

I can entirely believe it's done with staging payments and gaming the system.

Roger said:

kinabalu said:

Roger said:

DavidL said:

Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.

He disqualified himself when he said 'Israel has the right to defend itself'

Even the BBC were better informed

He's dropped the "her" for "it" though. Not behaving like a lady now.

More significantly he seemed to have forgotten who attacked who? An amnesia the Israelis have benefitted from many times since and including 1967

algarkirk said:

StillWaters said:

DavidL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Just out of interest, what does this new chairman actually believe, and why is it less serious than having someone who believes in the god of classical theism?

Are they any good at their job? If so, then personal beliefs, whether monotheism, occultism, or astrology, don't really matter.

I was quite impressed with the excuse given for trying to throttle him. I was channelling your grandmother but then some malevolent ghost intervened. As excuses go it has high novelty value.

Would that work in your court?

It's been run as a defence before, perhaps 1970s/1980s a London murder, the defence being it was done by a malign demon. The defence called a well known Roman catholic exorcist as an expert witness, whose name I forget. Defendant convicted. A now long dead Anglican exorcist I knew at the time declined to get involved.

Make of it what you will.

MattW said:

A somewhat strange piece on "Councill Tax ripoff" by Darren Grimes.

I can't tell whether he believes in decently funded good local services, or nor, or whether he is trying to find a political narrative to escape from having promised to square the circle by cutting lots of unnecessary expenditure that does not exist.

Nice and short for him, however.

https://www.darrengrimes.com/p/labours-great-council-tax-swindle

Theuniondivvie said:

Newsom increasingly looking like that bloke from DS9.

https://x.com/GavinNewsom/status/1933698631141634267

Andy_JS said:

"Cricket is leaving white working-class children behind"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2025/06/14/cricket-leaving-working-class-white-kids-behind/

MattW said:

Good morning, everyone.

We were discussing pseudonyms the other day. I think currently one of he few I know who is maintaining anonymity and not even appearing on his own videos whilst having become authoritative is Perun, the military analyst who makes his videos from Powerpoint presentations.

Are there others?

BartholomewRoberts said:

It is amusing to me how some of our sites most ardent Labour/Tony Blair supporters are vicious critics of what Israel is doing with regards to Iran. The rank hypocrisy absolutely stinks.

Regardless of what you think of the wisdom of the Iraq war in hindsight, when it comes to legitimacy, comparing the two side-by-side is instructive.

We claimed the right to invade Iraq due to self-defence due to their seeking WMDs (non-nuclear)
Israel claims the right to bomb (not invade) Iran due to self-defence due to their seeking WMDs (nuclear).

Iraq had not attacked the UK, either directly or indirectly.
Iran has repeatedly attacked Israel, both directly and indirectly.

Iraq was not seeking the destruction of the UK.
Iran is seeking the destruction of Israel.

We claimed due to some controversial evidence that Iraq was seeking non-nuclear WMDs (which in hindsight was wrong).
There is uncontroversial evidence that Iran is seeking nuclear WMDs.

Regardless of what you think of Israel in general, or the war in Iraq in hindsight, as far as legitimate claims to self-defence go . . . the Israeli claims of self-defence here are a million times stronger than anything Blair could claim.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

"Cricket is leaving white working-class children behind"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2025/06/14/cricket-leaving-working-class-white-kids-behind/

I went to watch some cricket the other week from the semi-pro league I used to play in the Stoke area. This is the league that produced people like Dominic Cork and used to high standard (not Yorkshire or Birmingham League but still very good). Most of the clubs are in really working class areas of the city. The standard is nowhere near as good as it used to be.

algarkirk said:

Roger said:

Pulpstar said:

Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.

I also think labour are learning on the job. They're certainly looking more competent than they did and Starmer is close to looking like a Prime Minister. There is something unflash about him which seems to suit the zeitgeist at the moment. If anyone's listening to the Churchill Atlee prog at the moment they might see the embryo of another Atlee

Once you conclude that the LDs are Labour'ssecret ally and not a challenger, then at the moment Starmer isn't facing anyone who is any good in depth. Both in temperament and content Kemi has been much worse than I expected.

Reform's journey from right wing small state economics back to the mainstream centrism (essential for a 2029 manifesto) leaves a lot of inconsistencies for Labour to mine.

This modern Attlee isn't exactly facing Churchill across the floor is he?

Andy_JS said:

Next big test for RefUK: can they get into the 35-40% slot in the polls? Difficult to say atm.

Roger said:

kinabalu said:

Roger said:

DavidL said:

Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.

He disqualified himself when he said 'Israel has the right to defend itself'

Even the BBC were better informed

He's dropped the "her" for "it" though. Not behaving like a lady now.

More significantly he seemed to have forgotten who attacked who? An amnesia the Israelis have benefitted from many times since and including 1967

WhisperingOracle said:

The extremists in Israel's government sound like they're about to make the same mistakes as in Gaza.

At the moment they're clearly getting huge amounts of information from inside Iran, and Tehran is compared to the rest of the country, full of anti-government feeling.

The response of fundamentalist loony Israel Katz ? "If they continue to target the home front in Israel, Tehran will be burn, and the residents of Tehran will feel it."

Cookie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

"Cricket is leaving white working-class children behind"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2025/06/14/cricket-leaving-working-class-white-kids-behind/

I went to watch some cricket the other week from the semi-pro league I used to play in the Stoke area. This is the league that produced people like Dominic Cork and used to high standard (not Yorkshire or Birmingham League but still very good). Most of the clubs are in really working class areas of the city. The standard is nowhere near as good as it used to be.

One of my bugbears about the largely excellent Freddie's Field of Dreams series was its presentation of cricket as an elitist sport to which Freddie's team were an exception. Because while this is increasingly true, until relatively recently it was a pretty universal sport: indeed the 2005 team to which Freddie belonged was majority state educated. And England has a long history of working class players like Trueman and Larwood.

wooliedyed said:

Cookie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

"Cricket is leaving white working-class children behind"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2025/06/14/cricket-leaving-working-class-white-kids-behind/

I went to watch some cricket the other week from the semi-pro league I used to play in the Stoke area. This is the league that produced people like Dominic Cork and used to high standard (not Yorkshire or Birmingham League but still very good). Most of the clubs are in really working class areas of the city. The standard is nowhere near as good as it used to be.

One of my bugbears about the largely excellent Freddie's Field of Dreams series was its presentation of cricket as an elitist sport to which Freddie's team were an exception. Because while this is increasingly true, until relatively recently it was a pretty universal sport: indeed the 2005 team to which Freddie belonged was majority state educated. And England has a long history of working class players like Trueman and Larwood.

Indeed so, of the Bodyline tour, the main protagonists with the ball Larwood and Bill Voce were both Working class lads from the Notts coalfields and Bill Bowes who got Bradman for a duck in the first Bodyline test was from a very ordinary Yorkshire railway family learning cricket from playing in the street

BartholomewRoberts said:

It is amusing to me how some of our sites most ardent Labour/Tony Blair supporters are vicious critics of what Israel is doing with regards to Iran. The rank hypocrisy absolutely stinks.

Regardless of what you think of the wisdom of the Iraq war in hindsight, when it comes to legitimacy, comparing the two side-by-side is instructive.

We claimed the right to invade Iraq due to self-defence due to their seeking WMDs (non-nuclear)
Israel claims the right to bomb (not invade) Iran due to self-defence due to their seeking WMDs (nuclear).

Iraq had not attacked the UK, either directly or indirectly.
Iran has repeatedly attacked Israel, both directly and indirectly.

Iraq was not seeking the destruction of the UK.
Iran is seeking the destruction of Israel.

We claimed due to some controversial evidence that Iraq was seeking non-nuclear WMDs (which in hindsight was wrong).
There is uncontroversial evidence that Iran is seeking nuclear WMDs.

Regardless of what you think of Israel in general, or the war in Iraq in hindsight, as far as legitimate claims to self-defence go . . . the Israeli claims of self-defence here are a million times stronger than anything Blair could claim.

Stark_Dawning said:

So let me get this right. Reform, whose adherents usually bang on about the supremacy of the 'Judeo-Christian tradition', are now being chaired by an occultist.