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Elon Musk has got the hell out of DOGE and it is epic – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,900
    edited June 5

    https://x.com/britainelects/status/1930765746344194538

    Reform GAIN from Conservative

    Frinton (Tendring) council by-election result:

    REF: 57.2% (+57.2)
    LAB: 27.0% (+12.1)
    CON: 7.9% (-34.1)
    GRN: 4.3% (-8.0)
    LDEM: 3.6% (+3.6)

    No IndGrp (-30.8) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~42% (-1)

    Was about to post!

    Ooooooof!
    The most interesting take from Hamilton might be whether the Tories are on a terminal slide to irrelevance.

    Tice is going to the count, make of that what you will.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,045
    edited June 5
    Frinton now corrected is probably in line with expectations against polling now Farage holds the parliamentary seat
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,389
    edited June 5
    "ALDC
    @ALDC
    St Leonard's Forest - West Sussex CC

    Liberal Democrat Gain from Conservative

    🔶Sam Raby Lib Dem 644 32.5%
    ➡️Reform 584 29.5%
    🔵Con 401 20.2%
    🟢Green 13.1%
    🔴Lab 4.7%"

    https://x.com/ALDC/status/1930767750311420042
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,899
    Dopermean said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    he is a genuine leader, because he causes his supporters to change their minds (see with Ukraine), he doesn't just follow what they want.

    Are all cult leaders "good at politics" ?
    Yes
    Which would suggest Elon Musk is also "good at politics" yet I don't think today's events support that assertion
    But we always circle back to the fact that you’re a fucking moron. So we should also take that into account, no?
    Your rapid descent into personal abuse when it could have been an interesting discussion is as demeaning as Chiles taking pocket money from his missus for his inane witterings.
    He can’t help it. It’s the high IQ.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,569
    edited June 5
    Dopermean said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    he is a genuine leader, because he causes his supporters to change their minds (see with Ukraine), he doesn't just follow what they want.

    Are all cult leaders "good at politics" ?
    Yes
    Which would suggest Elon Musk is also "good at politics" yet I don't think today's events support that assertion
    But we always circle back to the fact that you’re a fucking moron. So we should also take that into account, no?
    Your rapid descent into personal abuse when it could have been an interesting discussion is as demeaning as Chiles taking pocket money from his missus for his inane witterings.
    That wasn’t personal abuse. It was a dismissive Meh

    After ten years of truly moronic wanking-on about Brexit, @Scott_xP has a long way to go before he regains the right to an adult discussion
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,900
    Angus Robertson sounding very rattled, wonder what the sampling is saying??
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,045
    Andy_JS said:

    "ALDC
    @ALDC
    St Leonard's Forest - West Sussex CC

    Liberal Democrat Gain from Conservative

    🔶Sam Raby Lib Dem 644 32.5%
    ➡️Reform 584 29.5%
    🔵Con 401 20.2%
    🟢Green 13.1%
    🔴Lab 4.7%"

    https://x.com/ALDC/status/1930767750311420042

    Tories cant buy a council seat at the moment
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,128
    Dopermean said:

    Watching former Labour supporter Michelle Mone get eviscerated on the BBC.

    What have I learned? She appears to be a bullshitter and the glitterati despise her East End Glasgow peasantry. And in his own mind David Cameron is head and shoulders Britain's greatest ever Prime Minister.

    I suspect if there is a single sacrificial lamb for the Johnson Government PPE scandal, that lamb might be blonde.

    For his fans, Jo Maugham is on now.
    There's a definite sense that Mone would have been thrown under the bus as a PPE scapegoat. The whole lot should be properly investigated, they deliberately put the procurement relaxation through with the other COVID measures to enable themselves to profit from the pandemic.
    Watching the fall of Mone slightly delayed, Mone and Barrowman were onto the crypto grift in 2017, 6 years ahead of Trump
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,900
    Tory on BBC says it's lost deposit territory, blimey.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,363

    Andrew Learmonth from the Herald now tentatively floating a recount already. For pity's sake.

    Prof Curtice on BBC Scotland now.

    Evidence that political journalists might know a lot about politics, but they usually know the square root of b-all about elections (which is a much more difficult subject.)
    Most of the Scottish Political Lobby with a few exceptions have been asleep at the wheel at Holyrood for years and would not last two minutes down at Westminster! I would love to see a real shake up here where some journalists would actually get off their behinds and go looking for the political story rather than being spoonfed it by Government spads.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,045
    edited June 5

    Tory on BBC says it's lost deposit territory, blimey.

    I can see Greens, LDs and Tories losing deposit. Simply no incentive to turn out
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,389

    Tory on BBC says it's lost deposit territory, blimey.

    That was always likely. Most people predicted it on the VoteUK forum.

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19374/hamilton-larkhall-stonehouse-election-june
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    edited June 6

    Tory on BBC says it's lost deposit territory, blimey.

    I can see Greens, LDs and Tories losing deposit. Simply no incentive to turn out
    Hamilton has always been Labour or SNP, so no big surprise.

    Latest estimates are SNP hold with Labour not far behind in second and just holding off Reform who are third
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883
    It's quite sad how many people thinking lower inflation = lower prices. Also interesting that people are upset about Labour not doing what they promised - but did they actually promise to do anything in the first place?

    (watching the Hamilton vox pops).
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883
    edited June 6
    Energy coming up quite a bit.

    There's a social media meme doing the rounds pointing out that Scotland currently generates 2x our consumption - "2x the energy, 2x the price". (It's actually 3x as much, just from renewables, but our energy prices are not 2x as high as in England).

    This is becoming a major gripe.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,389
    edited June 6
    "Wokingham Borough Council
    @wokinghambc

    Maiden Erlegh & Whitegates

    🟡 Mike Smith (Liberal Democrats) – 1,028 votes (Elected)
    🔴 Andy Croy (Labour) – 793 votes
    🔵 Guy Grandison (Conservative) – 788 votes
    ➡️ Andrew Harris (Reform UK) – 486 votes
    🟢 Samuel Langlois (Green) – 180 votes
    🟤 Sara Gillman (Trade Unionist & Socialist Party) – 17 votes"

    x.com/WokinghamBC/status/1930779143647490399

    "LDEM: 31.2% (+3.2)
    LAB: 24.1% (-0.2)
    CON: 23.9% (-4.2)
    REF: 14.8% (+14.8)
    GRN: 5.5% (-6.2)

    No Ind (-8.0) as prev.

    +/- 2024"
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,045
    Andy_JS said:

    "Wokingham Borough Council
    @wokinghambc

    Maiden Erlegh & Whitegates

    🟡 Mike Smith (Liberal Democrats) – 1,028 votes (Elected)
    🔴 Andy Croy (Labour) – 793 votes
    🔵 Guy Grandison (Conservative) – 788 votes
    ➡️ Andrew Harris (Reform UK) – 486 votes
    🟢 Samuel Langlois (Green) – 180 votes
    🟤 Sara Gillman (Trade Unionist & Socialist Party) – 17 votes"

    x.com/WokinghamBC/status/1930779143647490399

    "LDEM: 31.2% (+3.2)
    LAB: 24.1% (-0.2)
    CON: 23.9% (-4.2)
    REF: 14.8% (+14.8)
    GRN: 5.5% (-6.2)

    No Ind (-8.0) as prev.

    +/- 2024"

    LDs gain majority control of the council. Not that much movement here since last year!
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883
    Sarwar heading to the count.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 78
    Eabhal said:

    Sarwar heading to the count.

    What a result for Slab this could be. Benefitted from a 3 way split?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883
    HERE WE GO
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,389
    edited June 6
    Lab 8,559 (31.57%)
    SNP 7,957 (29.35%)
    RefUK 7,088 (26.15%)
    Con 1,621 (5.98%)
    Grn 695 (2.56%)
    LD 533 (1.97%)
    SSP 278 (1.03%)
    Family 219 (0.81%)
    Ind 109 (0.40%)
    UKIP 50 (0.18%)

    Lab maj 602 (2.22%)

    Total votes 27,109
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 78
    Lab win by 600
  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 492
    How jolly.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883
    Wow!
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883
    That rather upends the narrative.
  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 492
    Eabhal said:

    That rather upends the narrative.

    Yes. Rather. As they say in Larkhall.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,389
    Didn't expect RefUK + Con > winning party's votes.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,585
    Not sure many saw that coming . Certainly a huge boost for Labour .
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883
    It's still a very considerable shift towards the right, if you can call Reform that.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,633
    How hard did SLab campaign and mobilise on this?

    Did they learn the lesson of a loss by a squeak in Runcorn?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,736
    We know nothing 😀
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883
    edited June 6
    nico67 said:

    Not sure many saw that coming . Certainly a huge boost for Labour .

    I was completely wrong. I thought people would coalesce around the SNP to block Reform, but they didn't and even then Reform couldn't come through the middle.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,389
    If RefUK are on 26% in this seat it probably corresponds to around 33% in Britain as a whole.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    nico67 said:

    Not sure many saw that coming . Certainly a huge boost for Labour .

    I said yesterday Labour could sneak it.

    Huge win for Starmer and Sarwar, terrible result for Swinney and SNP who have leaked nationalist votes to third placed Reform
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883
    Andy_JS said:

    If RefUK are on 26% in this seat it probably corresponds to around 33% in Britain as a whole.

    Now, apply that logic to the Conservative figure...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure many saw that coming . Certainly a huge boost for Labour .

    I said yesterday Labour could sneak it.

    Huge win for Starmer and Sarwar, terrible result for Swinney and SNP who have leaked nationalist votes to third placed Reform
    Do we have any evidence that the SNP lost votes to Reform?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,363
    HYUFD said:

    Tory on BBC says it's lost deposit territory, blimey.

    I can see Greens, LDs and Tories losing deposit. Simply no incentive to turn out
    Hamilton has always been Labour or SNP, so no big surprise.

    Latest estimates are SNP hold with Labour not far behind in second and just holding off Reform who are third
    I spent many a holiday visiting my Dad's family in Hamilton growing up, it was quite a contrast with where I lived in the Highlands. I was always close to my Dad's sister who lived there and I remember sharing with her quietly after the 1987 GE that I had voted for the Conservatives in Aberdeen where I was student and she said I have been quietly voting for the Conservatives here in this seat for years despite the fact that Labour could stick a rosette on a donkey and it would still win.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 78
    Prof curtice made a point on the BBC programme that even if lab squeak this narrowly (and it is a narrow win) it wouldn't be enough to translate into a big enough shift in power to make Sarwar FM next year (or better words to that effect). Take nothing away from the result, few of us seen this coming.

    Tactically have Lab played a blinder by letting Swinney do the attacking on reform? Did the reform advert backfire?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,389
    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If RefUK are on 26% in this seat it probably corresponds to around 33% in Britain as a whole.

    Now, apply that logic to the Conservative figure...
    In line with the 16% they're on nationally, yes.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,585
    This was a good result for Reform but it does blow a hole in the Labour sinking without a trace narrative.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,389
    nico67 said:

    This was a good result for Reform but it does blow a hole in the Labour sinking without a trace narrative.

    The Ref surge saved Labour, ironically.
  • vikvik Posts: 466
    Wow!

    I was right about expecting SNP to fall to 30% or below, but completely wrong about expecting Labour to be near 20%.

    Good thing I didn't bet on Reform vote share greater than Labour vote share. Lol.

    Also, both of TSE's tips were losing bets. Lol. (SNP vote share between 45% to 50% & Reform greater than Labour.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure many saw that coming . Certainly a huge boost for Labour .

    I said yesterday Labour could sneak it.

    Huge win for Starmer and Sarwar, terrible result for Swinney and SNP who have leaked nationalist votes to third placed Reform
    Do we have any evidence that the SNP lost votes to Reform?
    Yes the SNP held this seat and have clearly lost it as 2021 SNP voters went Reform in big enough numbers to give it to Labour who held their 2021 vote
  • vikvik Posts: 466
    Andy_JS said:

    nico67 said:

    This was a good result for Reform but it does blow a hole in the Labour sinking without a trace narrative.

    The Ref surge saved Labour, ironically.
    Yeah, that's right.

    A very unexpected result.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,350
    Fantastic news.
    Wonderful to see SNP and Reform disappointed.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,389
    Congratulations to the Labour candidate, a win is a win.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883
    edited June 6
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure many saw that coming . Certainly a huge boost for Labour .

    I said yesterday Labour could sneak it.

    Huge win for Starmer and Sarwar, terrible result for Swinney and SNP who have leaked nationalist votes to third placed Reform
    Do we have any evidence that the SNP lost votes to Reform?
    Yes the SNP held this seat and have clearly lost it as 2021 SNP voters went Reform in big enough numbers to give it to Labour who held their 2021 vote
    No, just because one proportion goes up and another goes down does not demonstrate there has been a movement between the two parties.

    Likely a much bigger reason is non-voters came out for Reform and SNP voters didn't turn out. No Scottish polling shows significant movements from SNP to Reform.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,389
    edited June 6
    Many politicians continuing to be as deluded as ever, claiming the is a fantastic result for them, whereas in reality it was a very close 3 way race with only 5% separating those top 3.
  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 492
    vik said:

    Wow!

    I was right about expecting SNP to fall to 30% or below, but completely wrong about expecting Labour to be near 20%.

    Good thing I didn't bet on Reform vote share greater than Labour vote share. Lol.

    Also, both of TSE's tips were losing bets. Lol. (SNP vote share between 45% to 50% & Reform greater than Labour.)

    This will never be mentioned on PB again.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 78
    Andy_JS said:

    Many politicians continuing to be as deluded as ever, claiming the is a fantastic result for them, whereas in reality it was a very close 3 way race with only 5% separating those top 3.

    Expect more of this, as we now enter an era of 3/4/5 way contests. By elections with low turnouts could have some dramatic results this parliament
  • vikvik Posts: 466
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure many saw that coming . Certainly a huge boost for Labour .

    I said yesterday Labour could sneak it.

    Huge win for Starmer and Sarwar, terrible result for Swinney and SNP who have leaked nationalist votes to third placed Reform
    Do we have any evidence that the SNP lost votes to Reform?
    I can't prove this, so this is just my wild theory ...

    I think the SNP is unusual in being both a Nationalist movement & also quite 'woke'. Typically, Nationalist movements are also quite right-wing because there is a 'blood and soil' element to Nationalism.

    In this way, I think the SNP is out-of-touch with a lot of its base & it's possible they will leak voters to Reform.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure many saw that coming . Certainly a huge boost for Labour .

    I said yesterday Labour could sneak it.

    Huge win for Starmer and Sarwar, terrible result for Swinney and SNP who have leaked nationalist votes to third placed Reform
    Do we have any evidence that the SNP lost votes to Reform?
    Yes the SNP held this seat and have clearly lost it as 2021 SNP voters went Reform in big enough numbers to give it to Labour who held their 2021 vote
    No, just because one proportion goes up and another goes down does not demonstrate there has been a movement between the two parties.

    Likely a much bigger reason is non-voters came out for Reform and SNP voters didn't turn out. No Scottish polling shows significant movements from SNP to Reform.
    Relative to 2021 Holyrood polling does show movement from SNP to Reform so wrong. On this swing there would be a Unionist majority next year.

    Hardly surprising some former nationalist Salmond supporters now prefer nationalist Farage to mild mannered middle manager Swinney
  • vikvik Posts: 466

    vik said:

    Wow!

    I was right about expecting SNP to fall to 30% or below, but completely wrong about expecting Labour to be near 20%.

    Good thing I didn't bet on Reform vote share greater than Labour vote share. Lol.

    Also, both of TSE's tips were losing bets. Lol. (SNP vote share between 45% to 50% & Reform greater than Labour.)

    This will never be mentioned on PB again.
    I will bring it up every time he brags about his Polievre tip. :)
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 78
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure many saw that coming . Certainly a huge boost for Labour .

    I said yesterday Labour could sneak it.

    Huge win for Starmer and Sarwar, terrible result for Swinney and SNP who have leaked nationalist votes to third placed Reform
    Do we have any evidence that the SNP lost votes to Reform?
    Yes the SNP held this seat and have clearly lost it as 2021 SNP voters went Reform in big enough numbers to give it to Labour who held their 2021 vote
    No, just because one proportion goes up and another goes down does not demonstrate there has been a movement between the two parties.

    Likely a much bigger reason is non-voters came out for Reform and SNP voters didn't turn out. No Scottish polling shows significant movements from SNP to Reform.
    I think there is some truth in what HYUFD says but it's a complex picture. Some SNP voters, more likely working class and in low numbers will have voted reform. Others stayed at home.

    Reform will have benefitted from this being their first major by election in Scotland, and going up against 2 incumbent government party candidates. Also the unionist squeeze as the Tory vote collapses.

    Scottish voters are savvy enough to tell that the incumbent here is the SNP, and can 'send a message' to Mr Swinney knowing the next election here is only 11 months away.

    I don't think Lab would have won this seat 6 months ago mind you. Likely that some of the middle class Tory vote went lab, as the strongest established unionist party too. Many Tory voters here from 2021 would be ex Slab
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,389
    vik said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure many saw that coming . Certainly a huge boost for Labour .

    I said yesterday Labour could sneak it.

    Huge win for Starmer and Sarwar, terrible result for Swinney and SNP who have leaked nationalist votes to third placed Reform
    Do we have any evidence that the SNP lost votes to Reform?
    I can't prove this, so this is just my wild theory ...

    I think the SNP is unusual in being both a Nationalist movement & also quite 'woke'. Typically, Nationalist movements are also quite right-wing because there is a 'blood and soil' element to Nationalism.

    In this way, I think the SNP is out-of-touch with a lot of its base & it's possible they will leak voters to Reform.
    I agree with this. Labour will also have lost some votes to Reform. Difficult to say which of the two would have lost more.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 78
    One thing we can all agree on is SNP were way too short at 1/8 for the seat. Clear lay, (easy with hindsight)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,389
    DoctorG said:

    One thing we can all agree on is SNP were way too short at 1/8 for the seat. Clear lay, (easy with hindsight)

    I thought they would win, really surprised by the result.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,491
    Well done Labour. Just glad we saved our deposit ;)
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,363
    Andy_JS said:

    Congratulations to the Labour candidate, a win is a win.

    And indeed it is, but it should also be noted that the SNP threw everything including the kitchen sink at this by-election campaign and they made it all about it being an SNP vs Reform battle and that has totally backfired on them big time.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,303
    fitalass said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Congratulations to the Labour candidate, a win is a win.

    And indeed it is, but it should also be noted that the SNP threw everything including the kitchen sink at this by-election campaign and they made it all about it being an SNP vs Reform battle and that has totally backfired on them big time.
    They have been in power a long time - police investigations, sleaze - new leader bounce wearing off.

    No run lasts for ever in politics. It’s not a surprise but normal if gravity takes effect on them now.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 897
    vik said:

    Wow!

    I was right about expecting SNP to fall to 30% or below, but completely wrong about expecting Labour to be near 20%.

    Good thing I didn't bet on Reform vote share greater than Labour vote share. Lol.

    Also, both of TSE's tips were losing bets. Lol. (SNP vote share between 45% to 50% & Reform greater than Labour.)

    Quite concerned about the shift from TSE/PD to Ladbrookes. The latter seems to be cleaning up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    he is a genuine leader, because he causes his supporters to change their minds (see with Ukraine), he doesn't just follow what they want.

    Are all cult leaders "good at politics" ?
    Yes
    Which would suggest Elon Musk is also "good at politics" yet I don't think today's events support that assertion
    But we always circle back to the fact that you’re a fucking moron. So we should also take that into account, no?
    Musk has managed to alienate, perhaps irrevocably, both parties of a government which is the biggest customer of one of his businesses, and their supporters who constitutes much of the customer base of another one.

    That doesn’t scream good at politics.

    I’ll grant he’s good at throwing lots of money at politics.
    And he was a great salesman.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986

    Fantastic news.
    Wonderful to see SNP and Reform disappointed.

    Just a shame that couldn’t include Labour as well.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,892
    Pretty good result for SLab under the circumstances. I can’t enthuse about Lab at all but my extreme dislike of the hard and simplist right makes it easy to be pleased about this.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,072
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    he is a genuine leader, because he causes his supporters to change their minds (see with Ukraine), he doesn't just follow what they want.

    Are all cult leaders "good at politics" ?
    Yes
    Which would suggest Elon Musk is also "good at politics" yet I don't think today's events support that assertion
    But we always circle back to the fact that you’re a fucking moron. So we should also take that into account, no?
    Musk has managed to alienate, perhaps irrevocably, both parties of a government which is the biggest customer of one of his businesses, and their supporters who constitutes much of the customer base of another one.

    That doesn’t scream good at politics.

    I’ll grant he’s good at throwing lots of money at politics.
    And he was a great salesman.
    Didn't he say that Trump was right about everything?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,598
    Good morning, everyone.

    Pissing it down here.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,855
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    he is a genuine leader, because he causes his supporters to change their minds (see with Ukraine), he doesn't just follow what they want.

    Are all cult leaders "good at politics" ?
    Yes
    Which would suggest Elon Musk is also "good at politics" yet I don't think today's events support that assertion
    But we always circle back to the fact that you’re a fucking moron. So we should also take that into account, no?
    Musk has managed to alienate, perhaps irrevocably, both parties of a government which is the biggest customer of one of his businesses, and their supporters who constitutes much of the customer base of another one.

    That doesn’t scream good at politics.

    I’ll grant he’s good at throwing lots of money at politics.
    And he was a great salesman.
    Well, I certainly think that we won't see him back at the White House.

    The mad king loses another lieutenant.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,631
    Leon said:

    Dopermean said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    he is a genuine leader, because he causes his supporters to change their minds (see with Ukraine), he doesn't just follow what they want.

    Are all cult leaders "good at politics" ?
    Yes
    Which would suggest Elon Musk is also "good at politics" yet I don't think today's events support that assertion
    But we always circle back to the fact that you’re a fucking moron. So we should also take that into account, no?
    Your rapid descent into personal abuse when it could have been an interesting discussion is as demeaning as Chiles taking pocket money from his missus for his inane witterings.
    That wasn’t personal abuse. It was a dismissive Meh

    After ten years of truly moronic wanking-on about Brexit, @Scott_xP has a long way to go before he regains the right to an adult discussion
    Three well deserved flags. You're so revolting and gauche. It's only on nights like this when the posts are particularly interesting that people notice.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,641
    edited June 6

    Good morning, everyone.

    Pissing it down here.

    Sadly we get the bad weather down here tomorrow, when we hold the UK’s second-biggest participation sporting event.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,113
    Go to bed at 8:15 and wake to find it's all kicked off in the USA, and nobody knows anything about UK electoral politics right now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,072
    IanB2 said:

    DoctorG said:

    DoctorG said:

    Hamilton by election

    i'll go for

    Snp 37
    Ref 28
    Lab 18
    Lib 5
    Green 5
    Con 3
    Rest 4

    … which would still be a great result for Reform (and a helpful distraction from their civil war).
    I can see them breaking 20%, higher than 25% is more likely on a low turnout/plague on all your houses vote. Would be astonishing if they won, but the SNP nadir seems to have passed for now

    I expect the Tories will get squeezed and lose deposit
    Labour will also lose deposit in this election as they get squeezed by SNP and Reform. Labours disastrous performance in this election is the only headline of note.
    Quoted without comment.
    To be fair, Labour nearly lost their deposit. If there'd got just 27 fewer percentage points, then they would have trailed the conservatives, and lost their deposit
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,855
    Three men sit in a cell in El Salvador.

    The first asks the second why he has been imprisoned. He replies, "Because I criticized Elon Musk."

    The first man responds, "But I am here for praising Musk!"

    They ask the third man who has been sitting quietly in the back. He answers, "I AM Elon Musk".

    https://bsky.app/profile/joxley.jmoxley.co.uk/post/3lqvci3raac26
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,641
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Go to bed at 8:15 and wake to find it's all kicked off in the USA, and nobody knows anything about UK electoral politics right now.

    It's a DOGE eat DOGE world.
    And I still have some of my Tesla sell position, which is handy
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,641
    Foxy said:

    Three men sit in a cell in El Salvador.

    The first asks the second why he has been imprisoned. He replies, "Because I criticized Elon Musk."

    The first man responds, "But I am here for praising Musk!"

    They ask the third man who has been sitting quietly in the back. He answers, "I AM Elon Musk".

    https://bsky.app/profile/joxley.jmoxley.co.uk/post/3lqvci3raac26

    The old ones are the best…as above
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,350
    fitalass said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Congratulations to the Labour candidate, a win is a win.

    And indeed it is, but it should also be noted that the SNP threw everything including the kitchen sink at this by-election campaign and they made it all about it being an SNP vs Reform battle and that has totally backfired on them big time.
    Rejoice! A plague still remains on the SNP
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,014

    DoctorG said:

    DoctorG said:

    Hamilton by election

    i'll go for

    Snp 37
    Ref 28
    Lab 18
    Lib 5
    Green 5
    Con 3
    Rest 4

    … which would still be a great result for Reform (and a helpful distraction from their civil war).
    I can see them breaking 20%, higher than 25% is more likely on a low turnout/plague on all your houses vote. Would be astonishing if they won, but the SNP nadir seems to have passed for now

    I expect the Tories will get squeezed and lose deposit
    Labour will also lose deposit in this election as they get squeezed by SNP and Reform. Labours disastrous performance in this election is the only headline of note.
    Some posts don't age well....
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,551
    Ya beauty! 🌹🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,631
    edited June 6
    IanB2 said:

    DoctorG said:

    DoctorG said:

    Hamilton by election

    i'll go for

    Snp 37
    Ref 28
    Lab 18
    Lib 5
    Green 5
    Con 3
    Rest 4

    … which would still be a great result for Reform (and a helpful distraction from their civil war).
    I can see them breaking 20%, higher than 25% is more likely on a low turnout/plague on all your houses vote. Would be astonishing if they won, but the SNP nadir seems to have passed for now

    I expect the Tories will get squeezed and lose deposit
    Labour will also lose deposit in this election as they get squeezed by SNP and Reform. Labours disastrous performance in this election is the only headline of note.
    Quoted without comment.
    We're lucky to have such great psephologists on here at the moment.
  • DoctorG said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure many saw that coming . Certainly a huge boost for Labour .

    I said yesterday Labour could sneak it.

    Huge win for Starmer and Sarwar, terrible result for Swinney and SNP who have leaked nationalist votes to third placed Reform
    Do we have any evidence that the SNP lost votes to Reform?
    Yes the SNP held this seat and have clearly lost it as 2021 SNP voters went Reform in big enough numbers to give it to Labour who held their 2021 vote
    No, just because one proportion goes up and another goes down does not demonstrate there has been a movement between the two parties.

    Likely a much bigger reason is non-voters came out for Reform and SNP voters didn't turn out. No Scottish polling shows significant movements from SNP to Reform.
    I think there is some truth in what HYUFD says but it's a complex picture. Some SNP voters, more likely working class and in low numbers will have voted reform. Others stayed at home.

    Reform will have benefitted from this being their first major by election in Scotland, and going up against 2 incumbent government party candidates. Also the unionist squeeze as the Tory vote collapses.

    Scottish voters are savvy enough to tell that the incumbent here is the SNP, and can 'send a message' to Mr Swinney knowing the next election here is only 11 months away.

    I don't think Lab would have won this seat 6 months ago mind you. Likely that some of the middle class Tory vote went lab, as the strongest established unionist party too. Many Tory voters here from 2021 would be ex Slab
    National Politics now reminds me of local politics on South Lakeland District when I first became a member in 1997. There were four groups, Independent, Conservative LDs and Labour all within a shout of each other and so each ward contest was separate and depended upon the unique characteristics of the candidates. BUT the electorate were no fools and voters voted differently depending upon what they were electing, MP, South Lakeland councillor, parish councillor. There were many voters, up to 25% who would vote differently for all three. Senior Labour councillor admitted to me that a third of her voters voted Con in a Westminster Election. Later many Cons voted LD locally and now vice versa as well. Would be fair to say that Tim Farron and the LDs have sort of herded all these cats to voting for them. But when he made a blunder, like opposing Brexit in 2017, he all but came to losing his seat.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,751
    The responses, well some of them, to this well meaning and harmless tweet from SKS wishing people who celebrate it a happy Eid are somewhat disappointing.

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1930731692605513758?s=61
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,002
    edited June 6
    Roger said:

    IanB2 said:

    DoctorG said:

    DoctorG said:

    Hamilton by election

    i'll go for

    Snp 37
    Ref 28
    Lab 18
    Lib 5
    Green 5
    Con 3
    Rest 4

    … which would still be a great result for Reform (and a helpful distraction from their civil war).
    I can see them breaking 20%, higher than 25% is more likely on a low turnout/plague on all your houses vote. Would be astonishing if they won, but the SNP nadir seems to have passed for now

    I expect the Tories will get squeezed and lose deposit
    Labour will also lose deposit in this election as they get squeezed by SNP and Reform. Labours disastrous performance in this election is the only headline of note.
    Quoted without comment.
    We're lucky to have such great psephologists on here at the moment.
    A large proportion of the comments here nowadays stem from the bile duct rather than the brain.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,751
    Roger said:

    IanB2 said:

    DoctorG said:

    DoctorG said:

    Hamilton by election

    i'll go for

    Snp 37
    Ref 28
    Lab 18
    Lib 5
    Green 5
    Con 3
    Rest 4

    … which would still be a great result for Reform (and a helpful distraction from their civil war).
    I can see them breaking 20%, higher than 25% is more likely on a low turnout/plague on all your houses vote. Would be astonishing if they won, but the SNP nadir seems to have passed for now

    I expect the Tories will get squeezed and lose deposit
    Labour will also lose deposit in this election as they get squeezed by SNP and Reform. Labours disastrous performance in this election is the only headline of note.
    Quoted without comment.
    We're lucky to have such great psephologists on here at the moment.
    Moonrabbitdamus…….
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,694
    Congrats to the new MP.

    Whilst it is amusing to see posters get their predictions wrong (*), it seems that, with three parties so close, predictions are much more difficult than they were a decade ago. This has obvious betting implications.

    (In some ways though, predictions are easier. Like Farage would fall out with other people in the Farage party. Or that Musk and Trump would fall out...)

    (*) Even for people like myself, who were too chicken to make a prediction...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,482
    Good headlines for Labour
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,846
    vik said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure many saw that coming . Certainly a huge boost for Labour .

    I said yesterday Labour could sneak it.

    Huge win for Starmer and Sarwar, terrible result for Swinney and SNP who have leaked nationalist votes to third placed Reform
    Do we have any evidence that the SNP lost votes to Reform?
    I can't prove this, so this is just my wild theory ...

    I think the SNP is unusual in being both a Nationalist movement & also quite 'woke'. Typically, Nationalist movements are also quite right-wing because there is a 'blood and soil' element to Nationalism.

    In this way, I think the SNP is out-of-touch with a lot of its base & it's possible they will leak voters to Reform.
    A fair bit of the SNP has always been pretty right-wing; see Kate Forbes in whichever leadership election it was. It was a bit obscured by everyone being to the left of Thatcher and then the uncomfortable alliance with the Greens.

    But if you dig down to the fundamentals, their appeals to the public are pretty similar. We could spend more money on you if we spent none on them, nationalism in an area we can win, we're not the rascals running the Westminster government.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,846

    Pretty good result for SLab under the circumstances. I can’t enthuse about Lab at all but my extreme dislike of the hard and simplist right makes it easy to be pleased about this.

    And that's the problem if the Conservatives really die- either completely, or by turning into a zombie appendage of Farage.

    In Nice Britain, the other horse in the race is the Lib Dems. In most of the rest of Britain, despite everything, it's still Labour. In different ways, neither of those is a joyful option. But if the question next time is Nigel Or Not, staying at home also doesn't feel adequate.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,454
    Hamilton. Tee hee.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,137
    Just waking to the news.

    Well, that's a turn up for the books.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,251
    If it was anyone else but Trump you would think that they couldn’t cancel the Musk contracts as it would show that they were awarded for personal reasons and not because they were the best options.

    As it’s Trump he will not give a monkey’s about people seeing the clear conflict - either the contracts were wrongly awarded or the removal damages the US for personal spite.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,092

    Banter result in Hamilton:

    SNP 33
    SLab 32
    REFUK 30
    Rest 5

    Close! Just a slightly different order.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,554
    boulay said:

    If it was anyone else but Trump you would think that they couldn’t cancel the Musk contracts as it would show that they were awarded for personal reasons and not because they were the best options.

    As it’s Trump he will not give a monkey’s about people seeing the clear conflict - either the contracts were wrongly awarded or the removal damages the US for personal spite.

    Maybe Trump will emulate Putin and start expropriating the billionaires.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,506
    I didn't expect Labour to hold on to as much of their vote but always expected a close result and a three-way fight.

    Not sure this changes much but, of course, because Labour actually won and their polling is otherwise awful this will be portrayed as a triumph.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 24,275
    Good morning everyone.

    Certainly seems like Musk had his Weetabix yesterday.

    That or his Special K.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,137
    Politics, as the last 24 hours has just proved, has never been less predictable.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/06/06/analysis-hamilton-by-election-labour-win-reform-farage
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,809

    Just waking to the news.

    Well, that's a turn up for the books.

    And a downturn for the collective PB book.
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