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Elon Musk has got the hell out of DOGE and it is epic – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,556
    Scott_xP said:

    @factal

    Russian media reports explosions, fire in vicinity of Bryansk airport following suspected Ukrainian strike near facility

    https://x.com/factal/status/1930739553196711977

    Some reports that they’ve taken out another iskander launcher, so there could be a real shift in the balance of power.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,114
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t know which is worse, the complete breakdown of western politics into crazy self harming populists versus deranged and treacherous lefties, or the sudden lack of decent TV drama

    This IS TV drama! Every news channel will cover it
    It's like Succession but if Logan and Roman had nukes.
    Who will Andreessen and Thiel and Vance back?
    That was the other Epstein news today - apparently he was Thiel's early backer.
    Don’t think so. Wasn’t the story just that he invested $40m in a fund managed by Thiel’s investment firm.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,752
    Leon said:

    Lmao suddenly the media, who have studiously ignored the Epstein Files are now excitedly reporting on them

    Which could backfire really really badly on an awful lot of important people on all sides

    🙏🙏
    Bring it on, in that case. 😀
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,222
    edited June 5
    Eabhal said:

    Oooh, interesting front page on the Times. Looks like there could be treaty change on ECHR due to migration.

    It's coming, I'm sure. But it may take a decade. Shame the process wasn't started a decade ago.

    The idea that the human rights are a tablet handed down from a mountain, rather than rules invented by fallible humans, needs to go.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704
    Elon wanted it to be smaller...

    @nytimes.com‬

    Shares of Tesla fell 14.3% on Thursday, as Elon Musk ramped up his public criticism of President Trump’s domestic policy bill. The plunge wiped out about $150 billion from Tesla’s market valuation.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,249
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    An SNP canvasser has said Ref may have polled close to 30%.

    If true astonishing in a Scottish marginal seat
    The seat does contain Larkhall, one of the most mental places in Scotland, so could be a high watermark for Reform but also importantly, it would be very funny indeed.

    There's way too much complacency in Scot Pol, like 'they would never win here' but people are as pissed off in Scotland as the RUK with the state of the country.
    But Larkhall has a pretty small population compared to Hamilton. It can't be that influential on the result.
    How is Larkhall mental?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,148
    Luntz: "This is better than the divorce of Liz Taylor and Richard Burton"

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,556
    Radek Sikorski takes a pop at Musk:

    https://x.com/sikorskiradek/status/1930734998895878217

    See, big man, politics is harder than you thought.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,572
    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think what we need is for Trump-Musk to get so acrimonious it actually turns reality inside-out so that they become friends again, and THEN they fall out again.

    Just heard about this and is Trump is going to pull his support for Tesla ?

    It may be popcorn to some but not those of us who are very concerned about the consequences

    And Reform disintegrating as well

    Let's go back to the Blair and Cameron- Clegg years
    Nigel seems to have done very well not to get too close to Elon Musk but not to piss him off.

    I don't see Musk supporting Democratic candidates personally, but who knows?
    Musk has suggested he could set up his own party
    https://www.ndtvprofit.com/world/donald-trump-elon-musk-feud-tesla-chief-floats-idea-of-new-political-party
    Musk, at least when it comes to politics, is phenomenally stupid.
    Not necessarily. He can't setup a National Party overnight, but he could set up a party in enough key states to completely fuck the GOP, unless he gets deported...
    He can set up a party. Who is going to vote for it? Democrats and centrists hate him. The MAGA crowd now hate him. How many people are going to be attracted to his unique mix of Hitler salutes and ketamine addiction? The small number of libertarian Musk fanboys aren’t going to swing many election results.

    I hope Musk instead donates to Democrats and moderate Republicans soon, before Trump bankrupts/deports him.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883
    carnforth said:

    Eabhal said:

    Oooh, interesting front page on the Times. Looks like there could be treaty change on ECHR due to migration.

    It's coming, I'm sure. But it may take a decade. Shame the process wasn't started a decade ago.

    The idea that the human rights are a tablet handed down from a mountain, rather than rules invented by fallible humans, needs to go.
    I don't think that's the issue. The problem is when our rules enable some people to take the piss, and see people drowning in the channel or the Med.

    As I've said before, I think we could have larger numbers of asylum seekers and even a more generous set of criteria, as long as we have control.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,908

    Radek Sikorski takes a pop at Musk:

    https://x.com/sikorskiradek/status/1930734998895878217

    See, big man, politics is harder than you thought.

    Takes more than just money (helpful though money is).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,556
    kle4 said:

    Radek Sikorski takes a pop at Musk:

    https://x.com/sikorskiradek/status/1930734998895878217

    See, big man, politics is harder than you thought.

    Takes more than just money (helpful though money is).
    It also follows that Trump is pretty good at politics.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,572
    DoctorG said:

    Hamilton by election

    i'll go for

    Snp 37
    Ref 28
    Lab 18
    Lib 5
    Green 5
    Con 3
    Rest 4

    … which would still be a great result for Reform (and a helpful distraction from their civil war).
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 142


    How is Larkhall mental?
    Green traffic lights behind cages.
    Subway forced to use black livery
    Phamacies change livery from Green to Blue.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 78

    Luntz: "This is better than the divorce of Liz Taylor and Richard Burton"

    Then first or second divorce?

    Wonder if Trump and Musk get back together and do all this again in 10 years time
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,572

    kle4 said:

    Radek Sikorski takes a pop at Musk:

    https://x.com/sikorskiradek/status/1930734998895878217

    See, big man, politics is harder than you thought.

    Takes more than just money (helpful though money is).
    It also follows that Trump is pretty good at politics.
    You don’t get elected to be President twice without being pretty good at politics.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,114
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    A very good video reporting on (yet) a(nother) fire on an electric car carrier 300 miles off Alaska.

    Good explanations about what these ships are like - it's like a 14 deck Herald of Free Enterprise, and how the fires are fought. TLDR: Flood it with C02 and get off pronto, since it won't stop even underwater. 12 minutes.

    What if there's a shark over there just waiting to eat them?
    You jump it, of course
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,900
    edited June 5
    Banter result in Hamilton:

    SNP 33
    SLab 32
    REFUK 30
    Rest 5
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    A very good video reporting on (yet) a(nother) fire on an electric car carrier 300 miles off Alaska.

    Good explanations about what these ships are like - it's like a 14 deck Herald of Free Enterprise, and how the fires are fought. TLDR: Flood it with C02 and get off pronto, since it won't stop even underwater. 12 minutes.

    What if there's a shark over there just waiting to eat them?
    You jump it, of course
    Electrocute it. Obviously
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,498
    edited June 5
    Eabhal said:

    carnforth said:

    Eabhal said:

    Oooh, interesting front page on the Times. Looks like there could be treaty change on ECHR due to migration.

    It's coming, I'm sure. But it may take a decade. Shame the process wasn't started a decade ago.

    The idea that the human rights are a tablet handed down from a mountain, rather than rules invented by fallible humans, needs to go.
    I don't think that's the issue. The problem is when our rules enable some people to take the piss, and see people drowning in the channel or the Med.

    As I've said before, I think we could have larger numbers of asylum seekers and even a more generous set of criteria, as long as we have control.
    One of the problems is the way it has been interpreted as a “living instrument” - i.e you interpret it in light of circumstances at the time rather than its original intent. I do get the rationale for this, but I think it is very similar to that (now very toxic) US legal debate on how you interpret the constitution as a document written over 250 years ago - surely it has to do some adapting to modern standards, but does that give too much power to a court to dictate public policy, that would be better left for elected legislatures to determine?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,572

    kle4 said:

    Radek Sikorski takes a pop at Musk:

    https://x.com/sikorskiradek/status/1930734998895878217

    See, big man, politics is harder than you thought.

    Takes more than just money (helpful though money is).
    It also follows that Trump is pretty good at politics.
    Nobody doubts that. It's the 'being president' bit where he falls down.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,148

    ‪Kate Starbird‬
    @katestarbird.bsky.social‬
    · 49m
    The national security and cybersecurity impacts of this Trump-Musk fallout are out of this world. Musk and the DOGE boys have their tentacles all up in just about every system that supports US government function…
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704
    @acnewsitics

    I haven't seen MAGA this upset since they allowed Black people to vote.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,148

    kle4 said:

    Radek Sikorski takes a pop at Musk:

    https://x.com/sikorskiradek/status/1930734998895878217

    See, big man, politics is harder than you thought.

    Takes more than just money (helpful though money is).
    It also follows that Trump is pretty good at politics.
    You don’t get elected to be President twice without being pretty good at politics.
    Campaign in gibberish, govern in gibberish.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,636
    edited June 5
    MattW said:

    What time is the by-election result expected?

    The Parish Magazine have a live blog, but so I guess do others:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/25218828.live-inside-hamilton-by-election-happens/
    The reporter has a turn of phrase, and an English-ish accent with bits of estuary:

    "... here at the lovely South Lanarkshire Council HQ."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,014
    I go out for dinner - and all hell breaks loose.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704
    edited June 5

    kle4 said:

    Radek Sikorski takes a pop at Musk:

    https://x.com/sikorskiradek/status/1930734998895878217

    See, big man, politics is harder than you thought.

    Takes more than just money (helpful though money is).
    It also follows that Trump is pretty good at politics.
    You don’t get elected to be President twice without being pretty good at politics.
    PhDs will be written disproving that claim

    Money and partisan social media can get you elected President, even if you are a gibbering nutcase
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,696

    kle4 said:

    Radek Sikorski takes a pop at Musk:

    https://x.com/sikorskiradek/status/1930734998895878217

    See, big man, politics is harder than you thought.

    Takes more than just money (helpful though money is).
    It also follows that Trump is pretty good at politics.
    You don’t get elected to be President twice without being pretty good at politics.
    Its all relative.

    Being better than the opponents is what is required.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,908

    kle4 said:

    Radek Sikorski takes a pop at Musk:

    https://x.com/sikorskiradek/status/1930734998895878217

    See, big man, politics is harder than you thought.

    Takes more than just money (helpful though money is).
    It also follows that Trump is pretty good at politics.
    He is. I wish he wasn't, but he is. And he is a genuine leader, because he causes his supporters to change their minds (see with Ukraine), he doesn't just follow what they want.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,148
    Canada should offer Elon asylum.


  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704
    kle4 said:

    he is a genuine leader, because he causes his supporters to change their minds (see with Ukraine), he doesn't just follow what they want.

    Are all cult leaders "good at politics" ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,908
    edited June 5
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    Radek Sikorski takes a pop at Musk:

    https://x.com/sikorskiradek/status/1930734998895878217

    See, big man, politics is harder than you thought.

    Takes more than just money (helpful though money is).
    It also follows that Trump is pretty good at politics.
    You don’t get elected to be President twice without being pretty good at politics.
    PhDs will be written disproving that claim

    Money and partisan social media can get you elected President, even if you are a gibbering nutcase
    PhDs will also be written talking past each other on what is meant by being good at politics. Having good policies or being a good administrator is one thing, and reforming a political movement and winning elections is another. Few are good at both, and Trump is not one of them, but he has done the latter.

    I don't even see why that would be controversial - the level of his control over the GOP, despite all he has done and having lost in 2020, is an achievement in itself, horrible though you and I would find it.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 78

    DoctorG said:

    Hamilton by election

    i'll go for

    Snp 37
    Ref 28
    Lab 18
    Lib 5
    Green 5
    Con 3
    Rest 4

    … which would still be a great result for Reform (and a helpful distraction from their civil war).
    I can see them breaking 20%, higher than 25% is more likely on a low turnout/plague on all your houses vote. Would be astonishing if they won, but the SNP nadir seems to have passed for now

    I expect the Tories will get squeezed and lose deposit
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,093

    Canada should offer Elon asylum.


    Or South Africa ... to prevent white genocide.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704
    kle4 said:

    the level of his control over the GOP, despite all he has done and having lost in 2020, is an achievement in itself, horrible though you and I would find it.

    His grip on the GOP is due to his personal fanbase, which in turn is due to his media profile

    Without The Apprentice, he wouldn't be President

    Where is the skill in that?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,908
    edited June 5
    Delete
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,114

    Trump could have Musk deported. Seriously.

    Couldn’t he claim asylum as a white South African?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,908
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    he is a genuine leader, because he causes his supporters to change their minds (see with Ukraine), he doesn't just follow what they want.

    Are all cult leaders "good at politics" ?
    No, most are not, and most never attempt it I expect. Trump is.

    I don't understand why it would be hard to separate out disgust at Trump from the unfortunate fact that he has successfully taken over a political party and convinced enough Americans to vote for it.

    Denying that he did not achieve that with purely money and luck (there was plenty of money and media opposing him) is just silly. I love a good Trump bashing as much as anyone, but he obviously has huge appeal in the USA, that requires political skills.

    That's why I don't think his movement survives him, because I don't think people like Vance or Don Jr can retain the support he has.

    This is as stupid as people pretending Boris had no political skills or appeal because they disliked him, despite results proving it wrong.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,900
    Apparently, SLab briefing turnout over 40%, so not terrible, increase in first time voters might help Reform. Result just before 2am.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,908
    edited June 5
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    the level of his control over the GOP, despite all he has done and having lost in 2020, is an achievement in itself, horrible though you and I would find it.

    His grip on the GOP is due to his personal fanbase, which in turn is due to his media profile

    Without The Apprentice, he wouldn't be President

    Where is the skill in that?
    The Apprentice was a long time ago, and he grew his fanbase far beyond a TV show audience into an iron grip on a political movement, despite losing an election and instigating violent riots against the constitutional order. People in the GOP who used to speak out against him or at least not toe the line now bend the knee, call him handsome, and praise his golf game.

    That takes skill.

    The idea because he was popular on TV, which helped launch his ambitions, answers how a decade and more later he is President once again, is just laughable. Has he just coasted on the Apprentice for 10 years? Don't be silly.

    I get it, you hate him and I hate him, but that doesn't mean he has no political skill.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    FF43 said:

    Canada should offer Elon asylum.


    Or South Africa ... to prevent white genocide.
    Orania might, the ANC won't
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,114
    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think what we need is for Trump-Musk to get so acrimonious it actually turns reality inside-out so that they become friends again, and THEN they fall out again.

    Just heard about this and is Trump is going to pull his support for Tesla ?

    It may be popcorn to some but not those of us who are very concerned about the consequences

    And Reform disintegrating as well

    Let's go back to the Blair and Cameron- Clegg years
    Nigel seems to have done very well not to get too close to Elon Musk but not to piss him off.

    I don't see Musk supporting Democratic candidates personally, but who knows?
    Musk has suggested he could set up his own party
    https://www.ndtvprofit.com/world/donald-trump-elon-musk-feud-tesla-chief-floats-idea-of-new-political-party
    Musk, at least when it comes to politics, is phenomenally stupid.
    Not necessarily. He can't setup a National Party overnight, but he could set up a party in enough key states to completely fuck the
    GOP, unless until he gets deported...
    Fixed it for you
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,128

    Scott_xP said:

    First sighting of 'deport Elon musk' in the wild...

    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1930726179520065810

    Had to be Bannon didn't it.
    Musk has a security clearance?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704
    kle4 said:

    This is as stupid as people pretending Boris had no political skills or appeal because they disliked him, despite results proving it wrong.

    nah, it's the same tired argument that equates 'good at politics' with 'winning elections'

    Lying to voters to win takes the least amount of political skill
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,858
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Canada should offer Elon asylum.


    Or South Africa ... to prevent white genocide.
    Orania might, the ANC won't
    Goodness knows what Elbonia might demand in return.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,908
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Radek Sikorski takes a pop at Musk:

    https://x.com/sikorskiradek/status/1930734998895878217

    See, big man, politics is harder than you thought.

    Takes more than just money (helpful though money is).
    It also follows that Trump is pretty good at politics.
    Nobody doubts that. It's the 'being president' bit where he falls down.
    Scott doubts it apparently.

    Personally I find the idea he has no skill and achieved his victories regardless to be an even scarier idea than acknowledging he has political skill.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704
    kle4 said:

    People in the GOP who used to speak out against him or at least not toe the line now bend the knee, call him handsome, and praise his golf game.

    That takes skill.

    Nope, it takes fear. Right now they fear him. There will come a time when every one of them will denounce Trump and all his works
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Radek Sikorski takes a pop at Musk:

    https://x.com/sikorskiradek/status/1930734998895878217

    See, big man, politics is harder than you thought.

    Takes more than just money (helpful though money is).
    It also follows that Trump is pretty good at politics.
    Nobody doubts that. It's the 'being president' bit where he falls down.
    Scott doubts it apparently.

    Personally I find the idea he has no skill and achieved his victories regardless to be an even scarier idea than acknowledging he has political skill.
    I am not arguing that what he is doing is not successful. I just think that's different from skillful
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,303
    DoctorG said:

    DoctorG said:

    Hamilton by election

    i'll go for

    Snp 37
    Ref 28
    Lab 18
    Lib 5
    Green 5
    Con 3
    Rest 4

    … which would still be a great result for Reform (and a helpful distraction from their civil war).
    I can see them breaking 20%, higher than 25% is more likely on a low turnout/plague on all your houses vote. Would be astonishing if they won, but the SNP nadir seems to have passed for now

    I expect the Tories will get squeezed and lose deposit
    Labour will also lose deposit in this election as they get squeezed by SNP and Reform. Labours disastrous performance in this election is the only headline of note.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 351
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    People in the GOP who used to speak out against him or at least not toe the line now bend the knee, call him handsome, and praise his golf game.

    That takes skill.

    Nope, it takes fear. Right now they fear him. There will come a time when every one of them will denounce Trump and all his works
    I think you are right, but how much should we forgive those who eventually turn on Trump? They will have lost all credibility. OK, they are scared, and I think have good reason to be scared, but what use will they be to the American body politic when they finally repent?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704

    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    People in the GOP who used to speak out against him or at least not toe the line now bend the knee, call him handsome, and praise his golf game.

    That takes skill.

    Nope, it takes fear. Right now they fear him. There will come a time when every one of them will denounce Trump and all his works
    I think you are right, but how much should we forgive those who eventually turn on Trump? They will have lost all credibility. OK, they are scared, and I think have good reason to be scared, but what use will they be to the American body politic when they finally repent?
    Oh, every one of them should be mocked and shunned. But they won't be
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,900
    Accidentally turned on BBC1 and why is the Plaid woman practically crying on QT? Are they always like this?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,572
    DoctorG said:

    DoctorG said:

    Hamilton by election

    i'll go for

    Snp 37
    Ref 28
    Lab 18
    Lib 5
    Green 5
    Con 3
    Rest 4

    … which would still be a great result for Reform (and a helpful distraction from their civil war).
    I can see them breaking 20%, higher than 25% is more likely on a low turnout/plague on all your houses vote. Would be astonishing if they won, but the SNP nadir seems to have passed for now

    I expect the Tories will get squeezed and lose deposit
    First would obviously be amazing for them. Second would still be fantastic for them. Third, but ahead of the Tories, would be an OK result. Fourth or fifth would be a failure.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,908
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    This is as stupid as people pretending Boris had no political skills or appeal because they disliked him, despite results proving it wrong.

    nah, it's the same tired argument that equates 'good at politics' with 'winning elections'

    Lying to voters to win takes the least amount of political skill
    You're being very HYUFD on this point with the hyperfocus on one aspect and ignoring the others. Winning elections is an important political skill, but not the only skill. Someone with no skill at winning never gets to demonstrate their skill at governing, and someone who has skill at winning but not at governing will be terrible.

    You are acting as though admitting he has skill, because he wins elections (ignoring the other points about control over one political movement etc), would somehow mean conceding he has other political skills, like governing. But it's easy to say he has the skill to win, but no skill at governing.

    It strikes me as a very fragile attitude, terrified to say something that might look positive about such an awful man, even though it's nothing of the kind.

    But let's play your obvious game. Ok, he has no skill beyond winning elections, and he wins elections by being a liar, which is the least skill. So he still has some skill under your definition, just a little one which is not admirable. Congratulations, you've defeated an imaginary argument.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,576
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    he is a genuine leader, because he causes his supporters to change their minds (see with Ukraine), he doesn't just follow what they want.

    Are all cult leaders "good at politics" ?
    Yes
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    he is a genuine leader, because he causes his supporters to change their minds (see with Ukraine), he doesn't just follow what they want.

    Are all cult leaders "good at politics" ?
    Yes
    Which would suggest Elon Musk is also "good at politics" yet I don't think today's events support that assertion
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,572
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    This is as stupid as people pretending Boris had no political skills or appeal because they disliked him, despite results proving it wrong.

    nah, it's the same tired argument that equates 'good at politics' with 'winning elections'

    Lying to voters to win takes the least amount of political skill
    You're being very HYUFD on this point with the hyperfocus on one aspect and ignoring the others. Winning elections is an important political skill, but not the only skill. Someone with no skill at winning never gets to demonstrate their skill at governing, and someone who has skill at winning but not at governing will be terrible.

    You are acting as though admitting he has skill, because he wins elections (ignoring the other points about control over one political movement etc), would somehow mean conceding he has other political skills, like governing. But it's easy to say he has the skill to win, but no skill at governing.

    It strikes me as a very fragile attitude, terrified to say something that might look positive about such an awful man, even though it's nothing of the kind.

    But let's play your obvious game. Ok, he has no skill beyond winning elections, and he wins elections by being a liar, which is the least skill. So he still has some skill under your definition, just a little one which is not admirable. Congratulations, you've defeated an imaginary argument.
    Lots of people lie and don’t win elections. It takes more than that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,908
    edited June 5
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    People in the GOP who used to speak out against him or at least not toe the line now bend the knee, call him handsome, and praise his golf game.

    That takes skill.

    Nope, it takes fear. Right now they fear him. There will come a time when every one of them will denounce Trump and all his works
    Wielding fear is a skill. A powerful one. Politicians inspire, they persuade, they bully, they bribe, they beg, they use fear, hope, determination, in order to succeed.

    This is a semantic dispute because you seem to think the word skill denotes something positive and are terrified of seeming to praise him, whereas I think it denotes the ability to achieve something. So anything he does well which is negative you say is not a skill by definition, whereas I think skill is not about the specific means, it's just whether he can succeed not how he does it.

    Is persuading someone by hope less skillful than persuading them through fear? Why? One is better than the other, but both are political skills. If the end result is achieved through one's actions, why is it not skillful if it will end one day, or is a skill like being a liar?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,576
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    he is a genuine leader, because he causes his supporters to change their minds (see with Ukraine), he doesn't just follow what they want.

    Are all cult leaders "good at politics" ?
    Yes
    Which would suggest Elon Musk is also "good at politics" yet I don't think today's events support that assertion
    But we always circle back to the fact that you’re a fucking moron. So we should also take that into account, no?
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 834

    Canada should offer Elon asylum.

    No need. He's His Majesty's loyal subject.

  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,858
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    he is a genuine leader, because he causes his supporters to change their minds (see with Ukraine), he doesn't just follow what they want.

    Are all cult leaders "good at politics" ?
    Yes
    If you're still looking for telly to watch, Jon Ronsons old programmes about the Waco siege is rather good (and empathetic). I think it was the same series that had Ruby Ridge in it and some other proto-now events.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,900
    Hamilton Turnout: 39% (Glasgow Herald)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704
    kle4 said:

    This is a semantic dispute because you seem to think the word skill denotes something positive and are terrified of seeming to praise him, whereas I think it denotes the ability to achieve something. So anything he does well which is negative you say is not a skill by definition, whereas I think skill is not about the specific means, it's just whether he can succeed not how he does it.

    Is persuading someone by hope less skillful than persuading them through fear? Why? One is better than the other, but both are political skills.

    The original premise is that he is a "skilled politician"

    I don't think that's true

    He won 2 elections. That means he is successful, but right now his policy agenda is ever so slightly completely fucked

    In 4 years, I don't think tariffs will have returned manufacturing to the US

    I don't think his war on all of the things that have contributed to America's success will in fact Make America Great Again

    I think his legacy will be failure, misery, poverty and death to millions.

    Maybe that makes him as good a politician as Stalin, but i don't think history will put him squarely in the "really skilled" column personally
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,363
    X
    The Herald@heraldscotland
    On the ground in Hamilton, Reform UK sources tell @_RebeccaMcCurdy
    they were 'really confident' this morning but that feeling diminished as the day went on

    Follow the count and results LIVE
    https://x.com/heraldscotland/status/1930752513344741817
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,391

    Hamilton Turnout: 39% (Glasgow Herald)

    My prediction was about 42%.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 351
    Some of us with more niche tastes are waiting up for the Wokingham Borough Council by election result.... no news of turnout, no word sfrom the street, nothing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,899

    Eabhal said:

    carnforth said:

    Eabhal said:

    Oooh, interesting front page on the Times. Looks like there could be treaty change on ECHR due to migration.

    It's coming, I'm sure. But it may take a decade. Shame the process wasn't started a decade ago.

    The idea that the human rights are a tablet handed down from a mountain, rather than rules invented by fallible humans, needs to go.
    I don't think that's the issue. The problem is when our rules enable some people to take the piss, and see people drowning in the channel or the Med.

    As I've said before, I think we could have larger numbers of asylum seekers and even a more generous set of criteria, as long as we have control.
    One of the problems is the way it has been interpreted as a “living instrument” - i.e you interpret it in light of circumstances at the time rather than its original intent. I do get the rationale for this, but I think it is very similar to that (now very toxic) US legal debate on how you interpret the constitution as a document written over 250 years ago - surely it has to do some adapting to modern standards, but does that give too much power to a court to dictate public policy, that would be better left for elected legislatures to determine?
    Legislatures abdicating legislating, in favour of the judicial branch legislating merely elevates the judicial branch to lithe legislature.

    In the US, the most powerful legislative chamber is now a a handful of lawyers who have the job for life. The Supreme Court. Can’t be removed, appealed from, challenged or gain said. Except by gross action by the President. Who is pretty gross.

    The original intent of the Founders was, indeed, that the Constitution should move with the times. By amendment. When Lincoln freed the slaves, he didn’t do it by getting an opinion that slavery was actually already illegal because of personal privacy. He pushed an amendment through.

    The U.K. has accidentally fallen into Constitutionalism of this form, in some areas - democracy is supposed to accept the rulings of the courts. And not dare to change the law. That would be to “attack The Law”.

    Amending the various acts is the only sane way forward. The alternative is to say to the people - The Law tells you No. And The Law is written on the Brass Tablets. So can’t be changed.

    The Senate of Rome tried that.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,055
    edited June 5

    Some of us with more niche tastes are waiting up for the Wokingham Borough Council by election result.... no news of turnout, no word sfrom the street, nothing.

    Frinton is also apparently tonight the rest tomorrow
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,900
    Hamilton update: No one knows anything:

    'One SNP source says they have sampled five boxes. One was not good at all, in another few the party smashed it, and in others they were ahead. The feeling is that in different parts of the constituency, people are voting very differently.'

    Translation: Reform cleaning up on the staunch streets of Larkhall, elsewhere not so much.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,161
    edited June 5
    Watching former Labour supporter Michelle Mone get eviscerated on the BBC.

    What have I learned? She appears to be a bullshitter and the glitterati despise her East End Glasgow peasantry. And in his own mind David Cameron is head and shoulders Britain's greatest ever Prime Minister.

    I suspect if there is a single sacrificial lamb for the Johnson Government PPE scandal, that lamb might be blonde.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,346
    Boy that esclated quickly....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704
    @paulhutcheon

    A source at the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election count believes Reform will come third.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,900
    Scott_xP said:

    @paulhutcheon

    A source at the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election count believes Reform will come third.

    So, pretty much as everyone though. Only the Torygraph got themselves overexcited about a surge.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,346

    Scott_xP said:

    @paulhutcheon

    A source at the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election count believes Reform will come third.

    So, pretty much as everyone though. Only the Torygraph got themselves overexcited about a surge.
    Is it the Torygraph or Reformygraph these days?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,055

    Scott_xP said:

    @paulhutcheon

    A source at the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election count believes Reform will come third.

    So, pretty much as everyone though. Only the Torygraph got themselves overexcited about a surge.
    Once Reform start talking about how badly SCon have done we will know theyve squeaked third
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,161

    Watching former Labour supporter Michelle Mone get eviscerated on the BBC.

    What have I learned? She appears to be a bullshitter and the glitterati despise her East End Glasgow peasantry. And in his own mind David Cameron is head and shoulders Britain's greatest ever Prime Minister.

    I suspect if there is a single sacrificial lamb for the Johnson Government PPE scandal, that lamb might be blonde.

    For his fans, Jo Maugham is on now.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883

    Hamilton Turnout: 39% (Glasgow Herald)

    Hmm, actually 44%.

    Don't go to bed yet...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,908
    I definitely nailed the talking past each other prediction.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883
    Some late night entertainment while we wait: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZxLrhtdh_k
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704
    @kaitlancollins
    The White House responds to Musk saying the Epstein files haven't been made public because Trump is in them, with press secretary Karoline Leavitt telling
    @Sam_Waldenberg
    , “This is an unfortunate episode from Elon, who is unhappy with the One Big Beautiful Bill because it does not include the policies he wanted. The President is focused on passing this historic piece of legislation and making our country great again."
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,576
    I haven’t used my photo quota yet, so


  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,900
    Eabhal said:

    Hamilton Turnout: 39% (Glasgow Herald)

    Hmm, actually 44%.

    Don't go to bed yet...
    The bloody Glasgow Herald know nothing. Get me Professor Sir John Curtice *puts kettle on*
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,391
    Eabhal said:

    Hamilton Turnout: 39% (Glasgow Herald)

    Hmm, actually 44%.

    Don't go to bed yet...
    I said 42% as a forecast.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 984
    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Canada should offer Elon asylum.


    Or South Africa ... to prevent white genocide.
    Orania might, the ANC won't
    Goodness knows what Elbonia might demand in return.
    Nice Dilbert reference
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,900
    Andrew Learmonth from the Herald now tentatively floating a recount already. For pity's sake.

    Prof Curtice on BBC Scotland now.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 78
    Scott_xP said:

    @paulhutcheon

    A source at the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election count believes Reform will come third.

    Labour were 10/1 earlier today as far as I can remember. They got nearly bang on 50% of the vote in the Westminster Hamilton seat in July
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,391
    edited June 5

    Andrew Learmonth from the Herald now tentatively floating a recount already. For pity's sake.

    Prof Curtice on BBC Scotland now.

    Goodness, the commentary is all over the place. Could be a fun night.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,055

    Andrew Learmonth from the Herald now tentatively floating a recount already. For pity's sake.

    Prof Curtice on BBC Scotland now.

    Utterly ridiculous this early in the count
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 351

    Andrew Learmonth from the Herald now tentatively floating a recount already. For pity's sake.

    Prof Curtice on BBC Scotland now.

    Evidence that political journalists might know a lot about politics, but they usually know the square root of b-all about elections (which is a much more difficult subject.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,391
    edited June 5
    By-election special available to watch here but you have to set your region to Scotland.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcone
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,128

    Watching former Labour supporter Michelle Mone get eviscerated on the BBC.

    What have I learned? She appears to be a bullshitter and the glitterati despise her East End Glasgow peasantry. And in his own mind David Cameron is head and shoulders Britain's greatest ever Prime Minister.

    I suspect if there is a single sacrificial lamb for the Johnson Government PPE scandal, that lamb might be blonde.

    For his fans, Jo Maugham is on now.
    There's a definite sense that Mone would have been thrown under the bus as a PPE scapegoat. The whole lot should be properly investigated, they deliberately put the procurement relaxation through with the other COVID measures to enable themselves to profit from the pandemic.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,556
    edited June 5
    https://x.com/britainelects/status/1930767052664406526

    Reform GAIN from Conservative

    Frinton (Tendring) council by-election result:

    REF: 57.2% (+57.2)
    CON: 27.0% (-15.0)
    LAB: 7.9% (-7.0)
    GRN: 4.3% (-8.0)
    LDEM: 3.6% (+3.6)

    No IndGrp (-30.8) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~42% (-1)
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,055

    https://x.com/britainelects/status/1930765746344194538

    Reform GAIN from Conservative

    Frinton (Tendring) council by-election result:

    REF: 57.2% (+57.2)
    LAB: 27.0% (+12.1)
    CON: 7.9% (-34.1)
    GRN: 4.3% (-8.0)
    LDEM: 3.6% (+3.6)

    No IndGrp (-30.8) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~42% (-1)

    Was about to post!

    Ooooooof!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,586
    Zia Yusufs resignation is a big loss to Reform . He seemed to bring a lot more organisation to them and his ethnicity and faith helped to detoxify the party in the eyes of some voters .
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,055
    Ok it is actually
    ❗ Reform GAIN from Conservative

    Frinton (Tendring) council by-election result:

    REF: 57.2% (+57.2)
    CON: 27.0% (-15.0)
    LAB: 7.9% (-7.0)
    GRN: 4.3% (-8.0)
    LDEM: 3.6% (+3.6)

    No IndGrp (-30.8) as prev.

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~42% (-1)

    [Corrected]
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