I don’t know which is worse, the complete breakdown of western politics into crazy self harming populists versus deranged and treacherous lefties, or the sudden lack of decent TV drama
This IS TV drama! Every news channel will cover it
It's like Succession but if Logan and Roman had nukes.
Who will Andreessen and Thiel and Vance back?
That was the other Epstein news today - apparently he was Thiel's early backer.
Don’t think so. Wasn’t the story just that he invested $40m in a fund managed by Thiel’s investment firm.
Shares of Tesla fell 14.3% on Thursday, as Elon Musk ramped up his public criticism of President Trump’s domestic policy bill. The plunge wiped out about $150 billion from Tesla’s market valuation.
An SNP canvasser has said Ref may have polled close to 30%.
If true astonishing in a Scottish marginal seat
The seat does contain Larkhall, one of the most mental places in Scotland, so could be a high watermark for Reform but also importantly, it would be very funny indeed.
There's way too much complacency in Scot Pol, like 'they would never win here' but people are as pissed off in Scotland as the RUK with the state of the country.
But Larkhall has a pretty small population compared to Hamilton. It can't be that influential on the result.
I think what we need is for Trump-Musk to get so acrimonious it actually turns reality inside-out so that they become friends again, and THEN they fall out again.
Just heard about this and is Trump is going to pull his support for Tesla ?
It may be popcorn to some but not those of us who are very concerned about the consequences
And Reform disintegrating as well
Let's go back to the Blair and Cameron- Clegg years
Nigel seems to have done very well not to get too close to Elon Musk but not to piss him off.
I don't see Musk supporting Democratic candidates personally, but who knows?
Musk, at least when it comes to politics, is phenomenally stupid.
Not necessarily. He can't setup a National Party overnight, but he could set up a party in enough key states to completely fuck the GOP, unless he gets deported...
He can set up a party. Who is going to vote for it? Democrats and centrists hate him. The MAGA crowd now hate him. How many people are going to be attracted to his unique mix of Hitler salutes and ketamine addiction? The small number of libertarian Musk fanboys aren’t going to swing many election results.
I hope Musk instead donates to Democrats and moderate Republicans soon, before Trump bankrupts/deports him.
A very good video reporting on (yet) a(nother) fire on an electric car carrier 300 miles off Alaska.
Good explanations about what these ships are like - it's like a 14 deck Herald of Free Enterprise, and how the fires are fought. TLDR: Flood it with C02 and get off pronto, since it won't stop even underwater. 12 minutes.
What if there's a shark over there just waiting to eat them?
A very good video reporting on (yet) a(nother) fire on an electric car carrier 300 miles off Alaska.
Good explanations about what these ships are like - it's like a 14 deck Herald of Free Enterprise, and how the fires are fought. TLDR: Flood it with C02 and get off pronto, since it won't stop even underwater. 12 minutes.
What if there's a shark over there just waiting to eat them?
Oooh, interesting front page on the Times. Looks like there could be treaty change on ECHR due to migration.
It's coming, I'm sure. But it may take a decade. Shame the process wasn't started a decade ago.
The idea that the human rights are a tablet handed down from a mountain, rather than rules invented by fallible humans, needs to go.
I don't think that's the issue. The problem is when our rules enable some people to take the piss, and see people drowning in the channel or the Med.
As I've said before, I think we could have larger numbers of asylum seekers and even a more generous set of criteria, as long as we have control.
One of the problems is the way it has been interpreted as a “living instrument” - i.e you interpret it in light of circumstances at the time rather than its original intent. I do get the rationale for this, but I think it is very similar to that (now very toxic) US legal debate on how you interpret the constitution as a document written over 250 years ago - surely it has to do some adapting to modern standards, but does that give too much power to a court to dictate public policy, that would be better left for elected legislatures to determine?
Kate Starbird @katestarbird.bsky.social · 49m The national security and cybersecurity impacts of this Trump-Musk fallout are out of this world. Musk and the DOGE boys have their tentacles all up in just about every system that supports US government function…
See, big man, politics is harder than you thought.
Takes more than just money (helpful though money is).
It also follows that Trump is pretty good at politics.
He is. I wish he wasn't, but he is. And he is a genuine leader, because he causes his supporters to change their minds (see with Ukraine), he doesn't just follow what they want.
See, big man, politics is harder than you thought.
Takes more than just money (helpful though money is).
It also follows that Trump is pretty good at politics.
You don’t get elected to be President twice without being pretty good at politics.
PhDs will be written disproving that claim
Money and partisan social media can get you elected President, even if you are a gibbering nutcase
PhDs will also be written talking past each other on what is meant by being good at politics. Having good policies or being a good administrator is one thing, and reforming a political movement and winning elections is another. Few are good at both, and Trump is not one of them, but he has done the latter.
I don't even see why that would be controversial - the level of his control over the GOP, despite all he has done and having lost in 2020, is an achievement in itself, horrible though you and I would find it.
… which would still be a great result for Reform (and a helpful distraction from their civil war).
I can see them breaking 20%, higher than 25% is more likely on a low turnout/plague on all your houses vote. Would be astonishing if they won, but the SNP nadir seems to have passed for now
I expect the Tories will get squeezed and lose deposit
the level of his control over the GOP, despite all he has done and having lost in 2020, is an achievement in itself, horrible though you and I would find it.
His grip on the GOP is due to his personal fanbase, which in turn is due to his media profile
he is a genuine leader, because he causes his supporters to change their minds (see with Ukraine), he doesn't just follow what they want.
Are all cult leaders "good at politics" ?
No, most are not, and most never attempt it I expect. Trump is.
I don't understand why it would be hard to separate out disgust at Trump from the unfortunate fact that he has successfully taken over a political party and convinced enough Americans to vote for it.
Denying that he did not achieve that with purely money and luck (there was plenty of money and media opposing him) is just silly. I love a good Trump bashing as much as anyone, but he obviously has huge appeal in the USA, that requires political skills.
That's why I don't think his movement survives him, because I don't think people like Vance or Don Jr can retain the support he has.
This is as stupid as people pretending Boris had no political skills or appeal because they disliked him, despite results proving it wrong.
the level of his control over the GOP, despite all he has done and having lost in 2020, is an achievement in itself, horrible though you and I would find it.
His grip on the GOP is due to his personal fanbase, which in turn is due to his media profile
Without The Apprentice, he wouldn't be President
Where is the skill in that?
The Apprentice was a long time ago, and he grew his fanbase far beyond a TV show audience into an iron grip on a political movement, despite losing an election and instigating violent riots against the constitutional order. People in the GOP who used to speak out against him or at least not toe the line now bend the knee, call him handsome, and praise his golf game.
That takes skill.
The idea because he was popular on TV, which helped launch his ambitions, answers how a decade and more later he is President once again, is just laughable. Has he just coasted on the Apprentice for 10 years? Don't be silly.
I get it, you hate him and I hate him, but that doesn't mean he has no political skill.
I think what we need is for Trump-Musk to get so acrimonious it actually turns reality inside-out so that they become friends again, and THEN they fall out again.
Just heard about this and is Trump is going to pull his support for Tesla ?
It may be popcorn to some but not those of us who are very concerned about the consequences
And Reform disintegrating as well
Let's go back to the Blair and Cameron- Clegg years
Nigel seems to have done very well not to get too close to Elon Musk but not to piss him off.
I don't see Musk supporting Democratic candidates personally, but who knows?
Musk, at least when it comes to politics, is phenomenally stupid.
Not necessarily. He can't setup a National Party overnight, but he could set up a party in enough key states to completely fuck the GOP, unless until he gets deported...
… which would still be a great result for Reform (and a helpful distraction from their civil war).
I can see them breaking 20%, higher than 25% is more likely on a low turnout/plague on all your houses vote. Would be astonishing if they won, but the SNP nadir seems to have passed for now
I expect the Tories will get squeezed and lose deposit
Labour will also lose deposit in this election as they get squeezed by SNP and Reform. Labours disastrous performance in this election is the only headline of note.
People in the GOP who used to speak out against him or at least not toe the line now bend the knee, call him handsome, and praise his golf game.
That takes skill.
Nope, it takes fear. Right now they fear him. There will come a time when every one of them will denounce Trump and all his works
I think you are right, but how much should we forgive those who eventually turn on Trump? They will have lost all credibility. OK, they are scared, and I think have good reason to be scared, but what use will they be to the American body politic when they finally repent?
People in the GOP who used to speak out against him or at least not toe the line now bend the knee, call him handsome, and praise his golf game.
That takes skill.
Nope, it takes fear. Right now they fear him. There will come a time when every one of them will denounce Trump and all his works
I think you are right, but how much should we forgive those who eventually turn on Trump? They will have lost all credibility. OK, they are scared, and I think have good reason to be scared, but what use will they be to the American body politic when they finally repent?
Oh, every one of them should be mocked and shunned. But they won't be
… which would still be a great result for Reform (and a helpful distraction from their civil war).
I can see them breaking 20%, higher than 25% is more likely on a low turnout/plague on all your houses vote. Would be astonishing if they won, but the SNP nadir seems to have passed for now
I expect the Tories will get squeezed and lose deposit
First would obviously be amazing for them. Second would still be fantastic for them. Third, but ahead of the Tories, would be an OK result. Fourth or fifth would be a failure.
This is as stupid as people pretending Boris had no political skills or appeal because they disliked him, despite results proving it wrong.
nah, it's the same tired argument that equates 'good at politics' with 'winning elections'
Lying to voters to win takes the least amount of political skill
You're being very HYUFD on this point with the hyperfocus on one aspect and ignoring the others. Winning elections is an important political skill, but not the only skill. Someone with no skill at winning never gets to demonstrate their skill at governing, and someone who has skill at winning but not at governing will be terrible.
You are acting as though admitting he has skill, because he wins elections (ignoring the other points about control over one political movement etc), would somehow mean conceding he has other political skills, like governing. But it's easy to say he has the skill to win, but no skill at governing.
It strikes me as a very fragile attitude, terrified to say something that might look positive about such an awful man, even though it's nothing of the kind.
But let's play your obvious game. Ok, he has no skill beyond winning elections, and he wins elections by being a liar, which is the least skill. So he still has some skill under your definition, just a little one which is not admirable. Congratulations, you've defeated an imaginary argument.
This is as stupid as people pretending Boris had no political skills or appeal because they disliked him, despite results proving it wrong.
nah, it's the same tired argument that equates 'good at politics' with 'winning elections'
Lying to voters to win takes the least amount of political skill
You're being very HYUFD on this point with the hyperfocus on one aspect and ignoring the others. Winning elections is an important political skill, but not the only skill. Someone with no skill at winning never gets to demonstrate their skill at governing, and someone who has skill at winning but not at governing will be terrible.
You are acting as though admitting he has skill, because he wins elections (ignoring the other points about control over one political movement etc), would somehow mean conceding he has other political skills, like governing. But it's easy to say he has the skill to win, but no skill at governing.
It strikes me as a very fragile attitude, terrified to say something that might look positive about such an awful man, even though it's nothing of the kind.
But let's play your obvious game. Ok, he has no skill beyond winning elections, and he wins elections by being a liar, which is the least skill. So he still has some skill under your definition, just a little one which is not admirable. Congratulations, you've defeated an imaginary argument.
Lots of people lie and don’t win elections. It takes more than that.
People in the GOP who used to speak out against him or at least not toe the line now bend the knee, call him handsome, and praise his golf game.
That takes skill.
Nope, it takes fear. Right now they fear him. There will come a time when every one of them will denounce Trump and all his works
Wielding fear is a skill. A powerful one. Politicians inspire, they persuade, they bully, they bribe, they beg, they use fear, hope, determination, in order to succeed.
This is a semantic dispute because you seem to think the word skill denotes something positive and are terrified of seeming to praise him, whereas I think it denotes the ability to achieve something. So anything he does well which is negative you say is not a skill by definition, whereas I think skill is not about the specific means, it's just whether he can succeed not how he does it.
Is persuading someone by hope less skillful than persuading them through fear? Why? One is better than the other, but both are political skills. If the end result is achieved through one's actions, why is it not skillful if it will end one day, or is a skill like being a liar?
he is a genuine leader, because he causes his supporters to change their minds (see with Ukraine), he doesn't just follow what they want.
Are all cult leaders "good at politics" ?
Yes
If you're still looking for telly to watch, Jon Ronsons old programmes about the Waco siege is rather good (and empathetic). I think it was the same series that had Ruby Ridge in it and some other proto-now events.
This is a semantic dispute because you seem to think the word skill denotes something positive and are terrified of seeming to praise him, whereas I think it denotes the ability to achieve something. So anything he does well which is negative you say is not a skill by definition, whereas I think skill is not about the specific means, it's just whether he can succeed not how he does it.
Is persuading someone by hope less skillful than persuading them through fear? Why? One is better than the other, but both are political skills.
The original premise is that he is a "skilled politician"
I don't think that's true
He won 2 elections. That means he is successful, but right now his policy agenda is ever so slightly completely fucked
In 4 years, I don't think tariffs will have returned manufacturing to the US
I don't think his war on all of the things that have contributed to America's success will in fact Make America Great Again
I think his legacy will be failure, misery, poverty and death to millions.
Maybe that makes him as good a politician as Stalin, but i don't think history will put him squarely in the "really skilled" column personally
X The Herald@heraldscotland On the ground in Hamilton, Reform UK sources tell @_RebeccaMcCurdy they were 'really confident' this morning but that feeling diminished as the day went on
Some of us with more niche tastes are waiting up for the Wokingham Borough Council by election result.... no news of turnout, no word sfrom the street, nothing.
Oooh, interesting front page on the Times. Looks like there could be treaty change on ECHR due to migration.
It's coming, I'm sure. But it may take a decade. Shame the process wasn't started a decade ago.
The idea that the human rights are a tablet handed down from a mountain, rather than rules invented by fallible humans, needs to go.
I don't think that's the issue. The problem is when our rules enable some people to take the piss, and see people drowning in the channel or the Med.
As I've said before, I think we could have larger numbers of asylum seekers and even a more generous set of criteria, as long as we have control.
One of the problems is the way it has been interpreted as a “living instrument” - i.e you interpret it in light of circumstances at the time rather than its original intent. I do get the rationale for this, but I think it is very similar to that (now very toxic) US legal debate on how you interpret the constitution as a document written over 250 years ago - surely it has to do some adapting to modern standards, but does that give too much power to a court to dictate public policy, that would be better left for elected legislatures to determine?
Legislatures abdicating legislating, in favour of the judicial branch legislating merely elevates the judicial branch to lithe legislature.
In the US, the most powerful legislative chamber is now a a handful of lawyers who have the job for life. The Supreme Court. Can’t be removed, appealed from, challenged or gain said. Except by gross action by the President. Who is pretty gross.
The original intent of the Founders was, indeed, that the Constitution should move with the times. By amendment. When Lincoln freed the slaves, he didn’t do it by getting an opinion that slavery was actually already illegal because of personal privacy. He pushed an amendment through.
The U.K. has accidentally fallen into Constitutionalism of this form, in some areas - democracy is supposed to accept the rulings of the courts. And not dare to change the law. That would be to “attack The Law”.
Amending the various acts is the only sane way forward. The alternative is to say to the people - The Law tells you No. And The Law is written on the Brass Tablets. So can’t be changed.
Some of us with more niche tastes are waiting up for the Wokingham Borough Council by election result.... no news of turnout, no word sfrom the street, nothing.
Frinton is also apparently tonight the rest tomorrow
'One SNP source says they have sampled five boxes. One was not good at all, in another few the party smashed it, and in others they were ahead. The feeling is that in different parts of the constituency, people are voting very differently.'
Translation: Reform cleaning up on the staunch streets of Larkhall, elsewhere not so much.
Watching former Labour supporter Michelle Mone get eviscerated on the BBC.
What have I learned? She appears to be a bullshitter and the glitterati despise her East End Glasgow peasantry. And in his own mind David Cameron is head and shoulders Britain's greatest ever Prime Minister.
I suspect if there is a single sacrificial lamb for the Johnson Government PPE scandal, that lamb might be blonde.
Watching former Labour supporter Michelle Mone get eviscerated on the BBC.
What have I learned? She appears to be a bullshitter and the glitterati despise her East End Glasgow peasantry. And in his own mind David Cameron is head and shoulders Britain's greatest ever Prime Minister.
I suspect if there is a single sacrificial lamb for the Johnson Government PPE scandal, that lamb might be blonde.
@kaitlancollins The White House responds to Musk saying the Epstein files haven't been made public because Trump is in them, with press secretary Karoline Leavitt telling @Sam_Waldenberg , “This is an unfortunate episode from Elon, who is unhappy with the One Big Beautiful Bill because it does not include the policies he wanted. The President is focused on passing this historic piece of legislation and making our country great again."
Andrew Learmonth from the Herald now tentatively floating a recount already. For pity's sake.
Prof Curtice on BBC Scotland now.
Evidence that political journalists might know a lot about politics, but they usually know the square root of b-all about elections (which is a much more difficult subject.)
Watching former Labour supporter Michelle Mone get eviscerated on the BBC.
What have I learned? She appears to be a bullshitter and the glitterati despise her East End Glasgow peasantry. And in his own mind David Cameron is head and shoulders Britain's greatest ever Prime Minister.
I suspect if there is a single sacrificial lamb for the Johnson Government PPE scandal, that lamb might be blonde.
For his fans, Jo Maugham is on now.
There's a definite sense that Mone would have been thrown under the bus as a PPE scapegoat. The whole lot should be properly investigated, they deliberately put the procurement relaxation through with the other COVID measures to enable themselves to profit from the pandemic.
Zia Yusufs resignation is a big loss to Reform . He seemed to bring a lot more organisation to them and his ethnicity and faith helped to detoxify the party in the eyes of some voters .
Comments
The idea that the human rights are a tablet handed down from a mountain, rather than rules invented by fallible humans, needs to go.
@nytimes.com
Shares of Tesla fell 14.3% on Thursday, as Elon Musk ramped up his public criticism of President Trump’s domestic policy bill. The plunge wiped out about $150 billion from Tesla’s market valuation.
https://x.com/sikorskiradek/status/1930734998895878217
See, big man, politics is harder than you thought.
I hope Musk instead donates to Democrats and moderate Republicans soon, before Trump bankrupts/deports him.
As I've said before, I think we could have larger numbers of asylum seekers and even a more generous set of criteria, as long as we have control.
Again.
https://x.com/masterofbit/status/1930739314578661507?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
How is Larkhall mental?
Green traffic lights behind cages.
Subway forced to use black livery
Phamacies change livery from Green to Blue.
Liz Truss is heading to the White House with a chicken, lager and a fishing rod.
Wonder if Trump and Musk get back together and do all this again in 10 years time
I can still see: https://x.com/realDonaldTrump
SNP 33
SLab 32
REFUK 30
Rest 5
Kate Starbird
@katestarbird.bsky.social
· 49m
The national security and cybersecurity impacts of this Trump-Musk fallout are out of this world. Musk and the DOGE boys have their tentacles all up in just about every system that supports US government function…
I haven't seen MAGA this upset since they allowed Black people to vote.
"... here at the lovely South Lanarkshire Council HQ."
Money and partisan social media can get you elected President, even if you are a gibbering nutcase
Being better than the opponents is what is required.
I don't even see why that would be controversial - the level of his control over the GOP, despite all he has done and having lost in 2020, is an achievement in itself, horrible though you and I would find it.
I expect the Tories will get squeezed and lose deposit
Without The Apprentice, he wouldn't be President
Where is the skill in that?
I don't understand why it would be hard to separate out disgust at Trump from the unfortunate fact that he has successfully taken over a political party and convinced enough Americans to vote for it.
Denying that he did not achieve that with purely money and luck (there was plenty of money and media opposing him) is just silly. I love a good Trump bashing as much as anyone, but he obviously has huge appeal in the USA, that requires political skills.
That's why I don't think his movement survives him, because I don't think people like Vance or Don Jr can retain the support he has.
This is as stupid as people pretending Boris had no political skills or appeal because they disliked him, despite results proving it wrong.
That takes skill.
The idea because he was popular on TV, which helped launch his ambitions, answers how a decade and more later he is President once again, is just laughable. Has he just coasted on the Apprentice for 10 years? Don't be silly.
I get it, you hate him and I hate him, but that doesn't mean he has no political skill.
Lying to voters to win takes the least amount of political skill
Personally I find the idea he has no skill and achieved his victories regardless to be an even scarier idea than acknowledging he has political skill.
You are acting as though admitting he has skill, because he wins elections (ignoring the other points about control over one political movement etc), would somehow mean conceding he has other political skills, like governing. But it's easy to say he has the skill to win, but no skill at governing.
It strikes me as a very fragile attitude, terrified to say something that might look positive about such an awful man, even though it's nothing of the kind.
But let's play your obvious game. Ok, he has no skill beyond winning elections, and he wins elections by being a liar, which is the least skill. So he still has some skill under your definition, just a little one which is not admirable. Congratulations, you've defeated an imaginary argument.
This is a semantic dispute because you seem to think the word skill denotes something positive and are terrified of seeming to praise him, whereas I think it denotes the ability to achieve something. So anything he does well which is negative you say is not a skill by definition, whereas I think skill is not about the specific means, it's just whether he can succeed not how he does it.
Is persuading someone by hope less skillful than persuading them through fear? Why? One is better than the other, but both are political skills. If the end result is achieved through one's actions, why is it not skillful if it will end one day, or is a skill like being a liar?
I don't think that's true
He won 2 elections. That means he is successful, but right now his policy agenda is ever so slightly completely fucked
In 4 years, I don't think tariffs will have returned manufacturing to the US
I don't think his war on all of the things that have contributed to America's success will in fact Make America Great Again
I think his legacy will be failure, misery, poverty and death to millions.
Maybe that makes him as good a politician as Stalin, but i don't think history will put him squarely in the "really skilled" column personally
The Herald@heraldscotland
On the ground in Hamilton, Reform UK sources tell @_RebeccaMcCurdy
they were 'really confident' this morning but that feeling diminished as the day went on
Follow the count and results LIVE
https://x.com/heraldscotland/status/1930752513344741817
Three men sit in a cell in El Salvador.
The first asks the second why he has been imprisoned. He replies, "Because I criticized Elon Musk."
The first man responds, "But I am here for praising Musk!"
They ask the third man who has been sitting quietly in the back. He answers, "I AM Elon Musk".
In the US, the most powerful legislative chamber is now a a handful of lawyers who have the job for life. The Supreme Court. Can’t be removed, appealed from, challenged or gain said. Except by gross action by the President. Who is pretty gross.
The original intent of the Founders was, indeed, that the Constitution should move with the times. By amendment. When Lincoln freed the slaves, he didn’t do it by getting an opinion that slavery was actually already illegal because of personal privacy. He pushed an amendment through.
The U.K. has accidentally fallen into Constitutionalism of this form, in some areas - democracy is supposed to accept the rulings of the courts. And not dare to change the law. That would be to “attack The Law”.
Amending the various acts is the only sane way forward. The alternative is to say to the people - The Law tells you No. And The Law is written on the Brass Tablets. So can’t be changed.
The Senate of Rome tried that.
'One SNP source says they have sampled five boxes. One was not good at all, in another few the party smashed it, and in others they were ahead. The feeling is that in different parts of the constituency, people are voting very differently.'
Translation: Reform cleaning up on the staunch streets of Larkhall, elsewhere not so much.
What have I learned? She appears to be a bullshitter and the glitterati despise her East End Glasgow peasantry. And in his own mind David Cameron is head and shoulders Britain's greatest ever Prime Minister.
I suspect if there is a single sacrificial lamb for the Johnson Government PPE scandal, that lamb might be blonde.
A source at the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election count believes Reform will come third.
Don't go to bed yet...
The White House responds to Musk saying the Epstein files haven't been made public because Trump is in them, with press secretary Karoline Leavitt telling
@Sam_Waldenberg
, “This is an unfortunate episode from Elon, who is unhappy with the One Big Beautiful Bill because it does not include the policies he wanted. The President is focused on passing this historic piece of legislation and making our country great again."
Prof Curtice on BBC Scotland now.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcone
Reform GAIN from Conservative
Frinton (Tendring) council by-election result:
REF: 57.2% (+57.2)
CON: 27.0% (-15.0)
LAB: 7.9% (-7.0)
GRN: 4.3% (-8.0)
LDEM: 3.6% (+3.6)
No IndGrp (-30.8) as prev.
+/- 2023
Estimated turnout: ~42% (-1)
https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1930765746344194538
Ooooooof!
❗ Reform GAIN from Conservative
Frinton (Tendring) council by-election result:
REF: 57.2% (+57.2)
CON: 27.0% (-15.0)
LAB: 7.9% (-7.0)
GRN: 4.3% (-8.0)
LDEM: 3.6% (+3.6)
No IndGrp (-30.8) as prev.
+/- 2023
Estimated turnout: ~42% (-1)
[Corrected]