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Reform’s leads falls by 5% if you exclude non-voters – politicalbetting.com

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  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,216

    carnforth said:

    "FBI says it is investigating 'targeted terror attack' in Colorado, US, after reports people injured"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cjdx44kx5zxt

    BBC has a live page, so presumably serious.

    https://x.com/afpost/status/1929299898131734992

    A man hurled Molotov cocktails at a pro-Israel hostage protest in Boulder, Colorado, setting multiple people on fire in what the FBI is calling a targeted terror attack.
    Looks from that like it's been contained.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,404
    carnforth said:

    "FBI says it is investigating 'targeted terror attack' in Colorado, US, after reports people injured"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cjdx44kx5zxt

    BBC has a live page, so presumably serious.

    Bloody hell, I worked in Boulder for a few months back in 2011. Always thought it so quiet and laid back.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,216

    carnforth said:

    "FBI says it is investigating 'targeted terror attack' in Colorado, US, after reports people injured"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cjdx44kx5zxt

    BBC has a live page, so presumably serious.

    Bloody hell, I worked in Boulder for a few months back in 2011. Always thought it so quiet and laid back.
    It has previous:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_JonBenét_Ramsey
  • eekeek Posts: 30,212
    carnforth said:

    eek said:

    Going back to Reform's DOGE

    The review will look at contractual arrangements with suppliers and consultants, all capital expenditure, any off-book or contingent liabilities, the use of reserves and financial resilience, and any problems flagged by internal or external auditors in the last three years.

    So it's going to try to access commercially sensitive data and then open a whole can of worms which will likely reveal that the council management is performing miracles keeping things going.

    I suspect Reform are going to be spending next year trying to explain why council tax is going up 10%...

    I would imagine it's bull in a china shop nonsense.

    Having said that, if councils are spending 90% of their money on mandatory programs, even 1% saved gives 10%-ish increase in spending on the non-mandatory stuff.
    If it’s anything like the councils I know well the only reasons it’s been kept at 90% is that adult and child social care do everything they can to avoid allowing and intentionally delaying the support people are entitled to
  • isamisam Posts: 41,960

    For all the claims that Reform’s intentions are unrealistic, the raw truth is that Starmer pledged to ‘Smash the gangs’ and there been a 42% year on year increase in boat people. So who is he to criticise? He ran on a ‘change’ ticket, and he’s changed the most important thing for the worse

    Up to 50,000 migrants could cross Channel this year

    Nearly 15,000 people have arrived on small boats so far in 2025. Analysis by The Times suggests that another 35,000 could be coming


    https://www.thetimes.com/article/809d7770-d80e-458a-99f0-92763f4fa3f1?shareToken=2c63b0a7a4616cdef25ec3be3469fa4d
  • glwglw Posts: 10,416

    https://ardupilot.org/
    https://ardupilot.org/planner/
    https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005008007419041.html

    I assume this was discussed earlier but I don't have much time today to go through the threads.

    I built something very similar to today's amusements in 2013 but it lifted a big camera instead of a small bomb. The potential bad actor uses were entirely obvious.

    Today not many use such things for mapping because DJI is so cheap and easy but if you want to go rogue and run in "Failsafe" mode without a controller...then away you go.

    If the security services weren't quite having kittens earlier, they certainly are now.

    The technology is available to everyone for barely more than pennies.

    Have to admire the audacity to actually do it from inside Russia, though.

    People are aware, but there's a big difference between knowing "this is a threat" and someone being willing to sign-off a plan and budget to do something about it. It's only when something happens that action gets taken.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,179
    edited June 1
    I think Nawrocki has won decisively. 55% to 45%
    Based on scaling up of current results in all regions.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,583
    Barnesian said:

    I think Nawrocki has won decisively. 55% to 45%
    Based on scaling up of current results in all regions.

    Earlier exit polls might have missed the likely increase in younger voters who normally vote later in the day and there has been an increase in support for the right in that group .

    I don’t think the diaspora are included in the exit poll so perhaps a crumb there for the Warsaw major .

    There’s a further late exit poll to come which includes more partial results .
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,042
    glw said:

    https://ardupilot.org/
    https://ardupilot.org/planner/
    https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005008007419041.html

    I assume this was discussed earlier but I don't have much time today to go through the threads.

    I built something very similar to today's amusements in 2013 but it lifted a big camera instead of a small bomb. The potential bad actor uses were entirely obvious.

    Today not many use such things for mapping because DJI is so cheap and easy but if you want to go rogue and run in "Failsafe" mode without a controller...then away you go.

    If the security services weren't quite having kittens earlier, they certainly are now.

    The technology is available to everyone for barely more than pennies.

    Have to admire the audacity to actually do it from inside Russia, though.

    People are aware, but there's a big difference between knowing "this is a threat" and someone being willing to sign-off a plan and budget to do something about it. It's only when something happens that action gets taken.
    Yes. The threat of has been obvious for quite some time but I think only when you see it actually happening and quite how devastating it is does it become 'real'. I think this attack feels quite different to the usual front line stuff of tanks being blown up which belongs in the 'usual warfare but with a twist' category. This is an IRA mortar tube updated to the 21st century.

    I wonder how safe Putin feels?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,541
    ...
    carnforth said:

    eek said:

    Going back to Reform's DOGE

    The review will look at contractual arrangements with suppliers and consultants, all capital expenditure, any off-book or contingent liabilities, the use of reserves and financial resilience, and any problems flagged by internal or external auditors in the last three years.

    So it's going to try to access commercially sensitive data and then open a whole can of worms which will likely reveal that the council management is performing miracles keeping things going.

    I suspect Reform are going to be spending next year trying to explain why council tax is going up 10%...

    I would imagine it's bull in a china shop nonsense.

    Having said that, if councils are spending 90% of their money on mandatory programs, even 1% saved gives 10%-ish increase in spending on the non-mandatory stuff.
    Programmes.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,369

    glw said:

    https://ardupilot.org/
    https://ardupilot.org/planner/
    https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005008007419041.html

    I assume this was discussed earlier but I don't have much time today to go through the threads.

    I built something very similar to today's amusements in 2013 but it lifted a big camera instead of a small bomb. The potential bad actor uses were entirely obvious.

    Today not many use such things for mapping because DJI is so cheap and easy but if you want to go rogue and run in "Failsafe" mode without a controller...then away you go.

    If the security services weren't quite having kittens earlier, they certainly are now.

    The technology is available to everyone for barely more than pennies.

    Have to admire the audacity to actually do it from inside Russia, though.

    People are aware, but there's a big difference between knowing "this is a threat" and someone being willing to sign-off a plan and budget to do something about it. It's only when something happens that action gets taken.
    Yes. The threat of has been obvious for quite some time but I think only when you see it actually happening and quite how devastating it is does it become 'real'. I think this attack feels quite different to the usual front line stuff of tanks being blown up which belongs in the 'usual warfare but with a twist' category. This is an IRA mortar tube updated to the 21st century.

    I wonder how safe Putin feels?
    After they tried to take him out in mid-air, probably not that safe.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,369
    I'm going to correct my earlier post for absolute clarity, at least two of the sites attacked by Ukraine do have notable nuclear weapon storage locations on the premises. Just can't be confident that they are standing locations with a permanent warhead presence. Olenya & Belaya logically could.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,376
    Barnesian said:

    I think Nawrocki has won decisively. 55% to 45%
    Based on scaling up of current results in all regions.

    Is that contra-the exit poll? I wasn't online earlier.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,179
    Andy_JS said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think Nawrocki has won decisively. 55% to 45%
    Based on scaling up of current results in all regions.

    Is that contra-the exit poll? I wasn't online earlier.
    It's more decisive than the exit poll which was 50.7% to 49.3% - much closer than it's now looking.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,376
    Barnesian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think Nawrocki has won decisively. 55% to 45%
    Based on scaling up of current results in all regions.

    Is that contra-the exit poll? I wasn't online earlier.
    It's more decisive than the exit poll which was 50.7% to 49.3% - much closer than it's now looking.
    Thanks.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,376
    Looks like the 5 biggest cities in Poland have voted about 2-1 in favour of Trzaskowski but it isn't enough for him to win the election.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,731
    edited June 1

    viewcode said:

    Mexicanpete has been banned.

    About time Horse! He's not exactly on message. Good riddance I say!
    Mexicanpete has been exterminated.
    Oh God, another unplanned regeneration. Which reminds me, did you see it last night? It was[shuttup shuttup shuttup - Ed]
    Do You Hate Billie
    It would take an effort of will to hate Billie Piper due to her general niceness, although Lawrence Fox seems to have had a good go at it, the idiot

    But the whole two seasons was a mess. Millie's downgrading (she was promised no night shoots. Night shoots then happened. She threw a strop, RTD rewrote scripts and - hello Belinda), Disney having cold feet (shooting for series 16 was due to start in Q42024/Q12025, but it was paused indefinitely), Ncuti's sudden regeneration in response (requiring reshoots in Feb2025) means that the finale doesn't make sense and had weird bits.

    As for Billie Piper, ambiguity about her status from her and RTD means that she might not actually be the Sixteenth Doctor, and goodness knows I wouldn't put it past RTD to pull such a stupid stunt. Another stupid stunt.

    Damn. :(
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,376
    edited June 1
    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,731
    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    He appears to be a bit upset
  • vikvik Posts: 465
    Barnesian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think Nawrocki has won decisively. 55% to 45%
    Based on scaling up of current results in all regions.

    Is that contra-the exit poll? I wasn't online earlier.
    It's more decisive than the exit poll which was 50.7% to 49.3% - much closer than it's now looking.
    It's actually not too different from the exit poll. The final result will likely be something like 50.95%.

    51.11% Nawrocki, 48.89% Trzakowski with 98.56% reporting

    It's wrong to just project linearly based on early results, because rural areas will often report first.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,519
    vik said:

    Barnesian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think Nawrocki has won decisively. 55% to 45%
    Based on scaling up of current results in all regions.

    Is that contra-the exit poll? I wasn't online earlier.
    It's more decisive than the exit poll which was 50.7% to 49.3% - much closer than it's now looking.
    It's actually not too different from the exit poll. The final result will likely be something like 50.95%.

    51.11% Nawrocki, 48.89% Trzakowski with 98.56% reporting

    It's wrong to just project linearly based on early results, because rural areas will often report first.
    Overseas vote reports last
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,376
    Reuters still has this as one of their "latest stories".

    "Polish centrist candidate Trzaskowski says he won presidential election
    Polish centrist presidential candidate Rafal Trzaskowski said he won the second round of the election after an exit poll showed him narrowly in the lead ahead of nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki."

    https://www.reuters.com/world/poland/
  • vikvik Posts: 465
    Cicero said:

    vik said:

    Barnesian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think Nawrocki has won decisively. 55% to 45%
    Based on scaling up of current results in all regions.

    Is that contra-the exit poll? I wasn't online earlier.
    It's more decisive than the exit poll which was 50.7% to 49.3% - much closer than it's now looking.
    It's actually not too different from the exit poll. The final result will likely be something like 50.95%.

    51.11% Nawrocki, 48.89% Trzakowski with 98.56% reporting

    It's wrong to just project linearly based on early results, because rural areas will often report first.
    Overseas vote reports last
    Final result:

    50.89% Nawrocki, 49.11% Trzakowski
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,065
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    He appears to be a bit upset
    He's becoming a parody of himself.

    That's what you would get if you handed ChatGPT his entire opus, and asked it to produce something ridiculous in the tone of Dominic Cummings.

    I haven't been able to take him seriously since he verbally assaulted the BA staff on a flight to the US
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 888
    edited June 2
    kjh said:

    In Seville. Stunning, but too many tourists (yes I know the hypocrisy). It has been 30 years since my last visit. Cordoba and Granada to come.

    On e gates and luggage: Seville is quite a small airport and we were the only plane to land at that time and we had to walk through baggage reclaim so here are the anecdotes:

    s) It had e gates but they weren't in use. So even if you were one of those Brits who managed to get an Irish EU passport it was tough, you had to queue with the British plebs. Presumably they open them when an EU
    dense flight comes in.

    b) From an entire easyJet plane only about 10 people were collecting hold luggage.

    Seville is a beautiful city built on the wealth of the Americas. The Irish get a discount at the Alcazar. Brits pay full price (Brexit). My pic of the day. Local with his dogs in the Alcazar gardens playing fetch with the oranges.


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,904
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    He appears to be a bit upset
    He's becoming a parody of himself.

    That's what you would get if you handed ChatGPT his entire opus, and asked it to produce something ridiculous in the tone of Dominic Cummings.

    I haven't been able to take him seriously since he verbally assaulted the BA staff on a flight to the US
    Really? Was that before or after the train crash he oversaw in education?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,904

    Liz Truss
    @trussliz
    ·
    1h
    President Trump is right to target failing institutions like Harvard.

    I know from experience captured bureaucracies need to be taken on.

    We need a Trump style revolution in Europe.

    https://x.com/trussliz/status/1929247596595339609


    Lettuce hope Farage doesn't let this lunatic into Reform.

    Speaking as somebody who despises Reform, I do hope he does. Nothing would burst their bubble of being new and untainted faster than having Truss in their tent.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,457
    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    Dump it into a LLM
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,699
    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    He reckons civil war is coming and is keen to make deniable predictions about it for posterity.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,457
    Stereodog said:

    Stereodog said:

    MattW said:

    Stereodog said:

    Stereodog said:

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Ultimately neither Starmer or Hermer are going to do anything to recluse the ECHR or any other treaty as they are both human right lawyers who cannot imagine any challenge to the law, even though these laws are being questioned by many in Europe and not just on the right

    It would go against everything Starmer has been trained to believe but ultimately it will be his downfall if he does not stop the boats

    And I would just say to those arguing this is anti foreigner, it does not help your case as this is far from that but in most peoples eyes it is unfair and this is now even being expressed by Labour politicians who know they cannot make excuses anymore

    Starmer is exactly the kind of person who could sell a revised refugee convention to a domestic and international audience. Generous, robust and sensible.

    A bit like how the Conservatives did gay marriage.
    You may be right but that would take years and he doesn't have years to stop the boats

    And remarkably we are only a month away from Labour commencing their second year in office and owning their decisions
    I don't think stopping the boats is possible - or at least not within a 5 year period. A significant reduction? Maybe.

    But Labour can certainly make lots of cheap noise about it. Even a proposal would be valuable, particularly if they can challenge the French to sign up to it.
    And this is why people think the political system is broken. Stopping the boats could easily be done in practical terms but with the way we're governed it becomes impossible.
    "Could easily be done in practical terms" - really?

    On the assumption you're not advocating violence and on the assumption you can't get the French and others to play ball and on the third assumption an offshore facility in (fill in the blank) wouldn't be ready for months if not years, I'd genuinely welcome hearing a practical and coherent solution.
    What wrong with using violence to defend the integrity of our borders? Poland does it.
    Just so I'm clear - are you advocating the physical interdiction of migrant craft by, presumably, the Royal Navy or Border Patrol? Once intercepted, the migrants are taken back to French waters irrespective of location.

    Are you advocating something beyond even that? There's violence and there's something beyond violence.
    If you announce beforehand that from now on, boats will not be allowed to make the crossing and you will use all necessary means to prevent then, how long do you think it would be before they stop?
    But that would be a lie and everyone would know it. No UK government (even a Reform one) is going to take 'all means necessary ' if that means torpedoing boat loads of migrants or fighting the French navy to drop them back at Calais.
    It has to not be a lie. As for "no UK government" doing it, that's more evidence that we have a broken state that has forgotten what's its primary purpose is.
    Quite apart from anything else, I'm not sure the Navy would obey an order to open fire on unarmed civilians.
    In the middle of the Sunk Johnson Government (sorry), they were asked and rejected even "pushing back". They told Priti Patel to take a running jump.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/hot-topics/migrant-crisis/channel-migrant-crossings-navy-rejects-push-back-plan/
    They should have been told to go fuck themselves. Since when has the Navy dictated what it wants to do?
    Since it was established that "only obeying orders" wasn't a valid defence?
    God help us when we need them to *actually* do anything, the useless shower.
    Yes they'll be totally unprepared for when we *actually* need them to intentionally drown civilians.
    A politicised paramilitary force to do the government's bidding - yes, there will be volunteers - is precisely where we'll end up one day if regular government departments refuse to enact the policies of the elected administration of the day.

    Let's hope it never comes to that.
    Ah another outing of the Leon 'If you don't collude in bad thing happening then really bad thing will happen' argument. Saying that the military needs to intentionally kill unarmed civilians otherwise a paramilitary group will do it for them isn't a very good policy proposal.
    I didn't say that, dickhead.

    Idiots like you will be exactly the reason bad things will happen, because you're totally incapable of seeing any point of view different to your own, or coming up with any solution to the problems people are concerned about, and instead want to resist moderate measures at every turn.

    The first person the people will turn on will be you.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,457
    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    LLM: Dominic Cummings’ blog post is a sprawling, impassioned essay arguing that Britain is on the brink of social, political, and institutional collapse — and that the current political class is incapable of seeing or managing the crisis.

    Key Points:

    1. Britain is Sliding Toward Chaos
    Cummings warns of growing unrest, racial violence, and collapse of public order, as both Islamist and nationalist forces gain ground.

    2. Political Leaders Are Failing
    Sunak and Starmer are “Dead Players,” trapped in delusion. Both ignore the need to change legal frameworks like the HRA/ECHR to stop illegal immigration, pretending solutions exist without reforms.

    3. The State Is Dysfunctional
    Whitehall, especially the Cabinet Office and National Security Secretariat, is opaque, unaccountable, and blocks real reform. The attack on Special Forces is a symbol of broader institutional decay.

    4. Collapse of Traditional Parties
    The Tories are gutted of members, donors, and ideas. Labour is torn between liberal Londoners and working-class voters, enraging both with its immigration stance. Neither party can adapt.

    5. Farage as the Only Dynamic Force
    Farage is seen as the only figure with momentum. If he builds a real team, he could lead a political realignment. Reform is still just him and a phone, but the old parties are collapsing fast.

    6. Historical & Systems Thinking
    Cummings draws on thinkers like Tocqueville, Turchin, and von Neumann to show this collapse fits long-term historical patterns. He calls for “systems politics” based on complex systems theory — still ignored in Whitehall.

    7. Open Questions
    He ends by asking how fast collapse will come, what Farage will do, how Whitehall will react, and how violence might spread. He warns the immigration and legal systems are unsustainable, and action is urgent.

    In one line:

    Cummings says Britain is in systemic decline, governed by delusional elites, and only radical reform or a Farage-led populist force can avert chaos.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,457
    Looks like some interesting thinking has gone into the SDR:

    "The Strategic Defence Review will set out a new way of fighting known as “20-40-40”, which aims to reduce troop casualties. This “autonomy drive” is part of innovation plans that will form a chunk of the review.


    Expensive, heavy equipment such as tanks will make up roughly 20 per cent of fighting capability, positioned further from the front line until a later stage of battle.



    Soldiers in Challenger 3 tanks will deploy kamikaze drones and others will fire long-range precision missiles at the enemy. “Single-use” items such as drones that explode on impact and shells, make up this “40” element.



    Reusable drones, typically costlier and more durable reconnaissance or attack drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper, will make up the remaining “40”.
    "


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/strategic-defence-review-2025-vw9h6gzfx
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,904

    Cummings says Britain is in systemic decline, governed by delusional elites, .

    Well, he should know.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,628

    Looks like some interesting thinking has gone into the SDR:

    "The Strategic Defence Review will set out a new way of fighting known as “20-40-40”, which aims to reduce troop casualties. This “autonomy drive” is part of innovation plans that will form a chunk of the review.


    Expensive, heavy equipment such as tanks will make up roughly 20 per cent of fighting capability, positioned further from the front line until a later stage of battle.



    Soldiers in Challenger 3 tanks will deploy kamikaze drones and others will fire long-range precision missiles at the enemy. “Single-use” items such as drones that explode on impact and shells, make up this “40” element.



    Reusable drones, typically costlier and more durable reconnaissance or attack drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper, will make up the remaining “40”.
    "


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/strategic-defence-review-2025-vw9h6gzfx

    It has some interesting and hopefully sensible changes in focus, but the catch appears to be that the consequential increase in capacity is nearly a decade away, and it appears clear that the government is avoiding any additional front loaded spending, for obvs reasons given its financial and political predicament.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,628

    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    LLM: Dominic Cummings’ blog post is a sprawling, impassioned essay arguing that Britain is on the brink of social, political, and institutional collapse — and that the current political class is incapable of seeing or managing the crisis.

    Key Points:

    1. Britain is Sliding Toward Chaos
    Cummings warns of growing unrest, racial violence, and collapse of public order, as both Islamist and nationalist forces gain ground.

    2. Political Leaders Are Failing
    Sunak and Starmer are “Dead Players,” trapped in delusion. Both ignore the need to change legal frameworks like the HRA/ECHR to stop illegal immigration, pretending solutions exist without reforms.

    3. The State Is Dysfunctional
    Whitehall, especially the Cabinet Office and National Security Secretariat, is opaque, unaccountable, and blocks real reform. The attack on Special Forces is a symbol of broader institutional decay.

    4. Collapse of Traditional Parties
    The Tories are gutted of members, donors, and ideas. Labour is torn between liberal Londoners and working-class voters, enraging both with its immigration stance. Neither party can adapt.

    5. Farage as the Only Dynamic Force
    Farage is seen as the only figure with momentum. If he builds a real team, he could lead a political realignment. Reform is still just him and a phone, but the old parties are collapsing fast.

    6. Historical & Systems Thinking
    Cummings draws on thinkers like Tocqueville, Turchin, and von Neumann to show this collapse fits long-term historical patterns. He calls for “systems politics” based on complex systems theory — still ignored in Whitehall.

    7. Open Questions
    He ends by asking how fast collapse will come, what Farage will do, how Whitehall will react, and how violence might spread. He warns the immigration and legal systems are unsustainable, and action is urgent.

    In one line:

    Cummings says Britain is in systemic decline, governed by delusional elites, and only radical reform or a Farage-led populist force can avert chaos.
    One begins to wonder whether Cummo and our Leon have ever been seen in the same room (then remembers that only one of them has a decent IQ).
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 888

    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    LLM: Dominic Cummings’ blog post is a sprawling, impassioned essay arguing that Britain is on the brink of social, political, and institutional collapse — and that the current political class is incapable of seeing or managing the crisis.

    Key Points:

    1. Britain is Sliding Toward Chaos
    Cummings warns of growing unrest, racial violence, and collapse of public order, as both Islamist and nationalist forces gain ground.

    2. Political Leaders Are Failing
    Sunak and Starmer are “Dead Players,” trapped in delusion. Both ignore the need to change legal frameworks like the HRA/ECHR to stop illegal immigration, pretending solutions exist without reforms.

    3. The State Is Dysfunctional
    Whitehall, especially the Cabinet Office and National Security Secretariat, is opaque, unaccountable, and blocks real reform. The attack on Special Forces is a symbol of broader institutional decay.

    4. Collapse of Traditional Parties
    The Tories are gutted of members, donors, and ideas. Labour is torn between liberal Londoners and working-class voters, enraging both with its immigration stance. Neither party can adapt.

    5. Farage as the Only Dynamic Force
    Farage is seen as the only figure with momentum. If he builds a real team, he could lead a political realignment. Reform is still just him and a phone, but the old parties are collapsing fast.

    6. Historical & Systems Thinking
    Cummings draws on thinkers like Tocqueville, Turchin, and von Neumann to show this collapse fits long-term historical patterns. He calls for “systems politics” based on complex systems theory — still ignored in Whitehall.

    7. Open Questions
    He ends by asking how fast collapse will come, what Farage will do, how Whitehall will react, and how violence might spread. He warns the immigration and legal systems are unsustainable, and action is urgent.

    In one line:

    Cummings says Britain is in systemic decline, governed by delusional elites, and only radical reform or a Farage-led populist force can avert chaos.
    Seems he's pitching for a job with the new Top Man. The last job didn't turn out that well did it?

    Perhaps he's seen the light and wants to undo all the mess he and BoJo left behind.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,991

    Looks like some interesting thinking has gone into the SDR:

    "The Strategic Defence Review will set out a new way of fighting known as “20-40-40”, which aims to reduce troop casualties. This “autonomy drive” is part of innovation plans that will form a chunk of the review.


    Expensive, heavy equipment such as tanks will make up roughly 20 per cent of fighting capability, positioned further from the front line until a later stage of battle.



    Soldiers in Challenger 3 tanks will deploy kamikaze drones and others will fire long-range precision missiles at the enemy. “Single-use” items such as drones that explode on impact and shells, make up this “40” element.



    Reusable drones, typically costlier and more durable reconnaissance or attack drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper, will make up the remaining “40”.
    "


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/strategic-defence-review-2025-vw9h6gzfx

    Was it the Bismarck that could not fend off bi-planes because they flew too slowly for its anti-aircraft guns?

    Anyway, the point is that modern air defences are designed to shoot down planes and missiles at mach think-of-a-number but drones fly low and slow and it is surely only a question of time before effective anti-drone weapons are produced.

    What might be the future, and present, use of drones is what the Ukrainians have done and launch them right next to the target so there is little time to react.

    As well as what we see at racecourses every day and periodically at military bases which is drones used for surveillance. Punters use drones to get their own pictures of races that are different from and, crucially, ahead of supposedly live, broadcast pictures.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,610
    edited June 2
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Mexicanpete has been banned.

    About time Horse! He's not exactly on message. Good riddance I say!
    Mexicanpete has been exterminated.
    Oh God, another unplanned regeneration. Which reminds me, did you see it last night? It was[shuttup shuttup shuttup - Ed]
    Do You Hate Billie
    It would take an effort of will to hate Billie Piper due to her general niceness, although Lawrence Fox seems to have had a good go at it, the idiot

    But the whole two seasons was a mess. Millie's downgrading (she was promised no night shoots. Night shoots then happened. She threw a strop, RTD rewrote scripts and - hello Belinda), Disney having cold feet (shooting for series 16 was due to start in Q42024/Q12025, but it was paused indefinitely), Ncuti's sudden regeneration in response (requiring reshoots in Feb2025) means that the finale doesn't make sense and had weird bits.

    As for Billie Piper, ambiguity about her status from her and RTD means that she might not actually be the Sixteenth Doctor, and goodness knows I wouldn't put it past RTD to pull such a stupid stunt. Another stupid stunt.

    Damn. :(
    I'm behind on this.

    Disney is in Dr Who? Why? Is the Mickey Mouse Club involved?

    I trust that in due course we will have a dystopian episode set in the slightly-crumbling Celebration, Florida. perhaps modelled on the Truman Show or The City and the Stars, where the Dr's Assistant discovers a crumbling edge of a wall in a place that is supposed to be forever a 1990s vision of Bewitched laid over Gilead.

    The return of Rose Tyler sounds a good thing, though I hope the Dr has a good taste in male assistants. Are there any ex-Conservative MPs available? The Moggster might fit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,014

    Ukraine says Russia has launched the biggest number of drones in the 3-year war.
    https://x.com/AP/status/1929154228859064328

    Russian retaliation was bound to follow.

    Going to be a bad night for Ukraine's nuclear strategic kindergartens, hospitals, residential blocks...
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 888
    Wonder what Reform will do about urban planning? This seems to sum up some of the issues.

    “Since about 1940, the population of Los Angeles has grown at about the same rate as the population of London. Los Angeles is now so enormous that if you somehow managed to pick it up and plonk it down on England, it would extend from Brighton on the south coast to Cambridge in the north-east. That’s what happens if you don’t have a green belt.”
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,457
    IanB2 said:

    Looks like some interesting thinking has gone into the SDR:

    "The Strategic Defence Review will set out a new way of fighting known as “20-40-40”, which aims to reduce troop casualties. This “autonomy drive” is part of innovation plans that will form a chunk of the review.


    Expensive, heavy equipment such as tanks will make up roughly 20 per cent of fighting capability, positioned further from the front line until a later stage of battle.



    Soldiers in Challenger 3 tanks will deploy kamikaze drones and others will fire long-range precision missiles at the enemy. “Single-use” items such as drones that explode on impact and shells, make up this “40” element.



    Reusable drones, typically costlier and more durable reconnaissance or attack drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper, will make up the remaining “40”.
    "


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/strategic-defence-review-2025-vw9h6gzfx

    It has some interesting and hopefully sensible changes in focus, but the catch appears to be that the consequential increase in capacity is nearly a decade away, and it appears clear that the government is avoiding any additional front loaded spending, for obvs reasons given its financial and political predicament.
    Yes, it assumes a path to 3%, which isn't budgeted for at present.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,457
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    LLM: Dominic Cummings’ blog post is a sprawling, impassioned essay arguing that Britain is on the brink of social, political, and institutional collapse — and that the current political class is incapable of seeing or managing the crisis.

    Key Points:

    1. Britain is Sliding Toward Chaos
    Cummings warns of growing unrest, racial violence, and collapse of public order, as both Islamist and nationalist forces gain ground.

    2. Political Leaders Are Failing
    Sunak and Starmer are “Dead Players,” trapped in delusion. Both ignore the need to change legal frameworks like the HRA/ECHR to stop illegal immigration, pretending solutions exist without reforms.

    3. The State Is Dysfunctional
    Whitehall, especially the Cabinet Office and National Security Secretariat, is opaque, unaccountable, and blocks real reform. The attack on Special Forces is a symbol of broader institutional decay.

    4. Collapse of Traditional Parties
    The Tories are gutted of members, donors, and ideas. Labour is torn between liberal Londoners and working-class voters, enraging both with its immigration stance. Neither party can adapt.

    5. Farage as the Only Dynamic Force
    Farage is seen as the only figure with momentum. If he builds a real team, he could lead a political realignment. Reform is still just him and a phone, but the old parties are collapsing fast.

    6. Historical & Systems Thinking
    Cummings draws on thinkers like Tocqueville, Turchin, and von Neumann to show this collapse fits long-term historical patterns. He calls for “systems politics” based on complex systems theory — still ignored in Whitehall.

    7. Open Questions
    He ends by asking how fast collapse will come, what Farage will do, how Whitehall will react, and how violence might spread. He warns the immigration and legal systems are unsustainable, and action is urgent.

    In one line:

    Cummings says Britain is in systemic decline, governed by delusional elites, and only radical reform or a Farage-led populist force can avert chaos.
    One begins to wonder whether Cummo and our Leon have ever been seen in the same room (then remembers that only one of them has a decent IQ).
    Essentially, he's right though.

    I just don't think he and Farage are remotely capable of implementing solutions either.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,610

    Looks like some interesting thinking has gone into the SDR:

    "The Strategic Defence Review will set out a new way of fighting known as “20-40-40”, which aims to reduce troop casualties. This “autonomy drive” is part of innovation plans that will form a chunk of the review.


    Expensive, heavy equipment such as tanks will make up roughly 20 per cent of fighting capability, positioned further from the front line until a later stage of battle.



    Soldiers in Challenger 3 tanks will deploy kamikaze drones and others will fire long-range precision missiles at the enemy. “Single-use” items such as drones that explode on impact and shells, make up this “40” element.



    Reusable drones, typically costlier and more durable reconnaissance or attack drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper, will make up the remaining “40”.
    "


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/strategic-defence-review-2025-vw9h6gzfx

    Was it the Bismarck that could not fend off bi-planes because they flew too slowly for its anti-aircraft guns?

    Anyway, the point is that modern air defences are designed to shoot down planes and missiles at mach think-of-a-number but drones fly low and slow and it is surely only a question of time before effective anti-drone weapons are produced.

    What might be the future, and present, use of drones is what the Ukrainians have done and launch them right next to the target so there is little time to react.

    As well as what we see at racecourses every day and periodically at military bases which is drones used for surveillance. Punters use drones to get their own pictures of races that are different from and, crucially, ahead of supposedly live, broadcast pictures.
    There are a number of good pieces over at the UK Defence Journal. This is one on drones that I highlighted last night, about the number of drones flying in restricted airspace at the launch of HMS Glasgow.

    Quite an interesting piece about the potential drone threat in the UK, from the editor of the UK Defence Journal, who regularly flies his drone (with CAA and police knowledge) to report on frigates being built at Glasgow.

    He reports at least a dozen drones flying at the launch of HMS Glasgow, with a number in restricted air space.

    Earlier this year, I submitted a Freedom of Information request to Police Scotland. I asked how many drone incidents had been recorded in the area surrounding a number of shipyards since January 2020. Their response revealed that 99 drone-related incidents had been reported within the Flight Restriction Zone during that period.

    Only four of those incidents resulted in crime reports, and only two led to detected crimes, where a suspect was identified and a report submitted to the Crown Office. In both of those cases, the drones were confiscated.


    I think this is going to be tightened up on in due course. It's the same phenomenon we were discussing last week of a perceived entitlement to break the law if we decide that it is "minor".

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/the-age-of-drone-warfare-has-arrived-is-uk-industry-safe/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,628
    edited June 2

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    LLM: Dominic Cummings’ blog post is a sprawling, impassioned essay arguing that Britain is on the brink of social, political, and institutional collapse — and that the current political class is incapable of seeing or managing the crisis.

    Key Points:

    1. Britain is Sliding Toward Chaos
    Cummings warns of growing unrest, racial violence, and collapse of public order, as both Islamist and nationalist forces gain ground.

    2. Political Leaders Are Failing
    Sunak and Starmer are “Dead Players,” trapped in delusion. Both ignore the need to change legal frameworks like the HRA/ECHR to stop illegal immigration, pretending solutions exist without reforms.

    3. The State Is Dysfunctional
    Whitehall, especially the Cabinet Office and National Security Secretariat, is opaque, unaccountable, and blocks real reform. The attack on Special Forces is a symbol of broader institutional decay.

    4. Collapse of Traditional Parties
    The Tories are gutted of members, donors, and ideas. Labour is torn between liberal Londoners and working-class voters, enraging both with its immigration stance. Neither party can adapt.

    5. Farage as the Only Dynamic Force
    Farage is seen as the only figure with momentum. If he builds a real team, he could lead a political realignment. Reform is still just him and a phone, but the old parties are collapsing fast.

    6. Historical & Systems Thinking
    Cummings draws on thinkers like Tocqueville, Turchin, and von Neumann to show this collapse fits long-term historical patterns. He calls for “systems politics” based on complex systems theory — still ignored in Whitehall.

    7. Open Questions
    He ends by asking how fast collapse will come, what Farage will do, how Whitehall will react, and how violence might spread. He warns the immigration and legal systems are unsustainable, and action is urgent.

    In one line:

    Cummings says Britain is in systemic decline, governed by delusional elites, and only radical reform or a Farage-led populist force can avert chaos.
    One begins to wonder whether Cummo and our Leon have ever been seen in the same room (then remembers that only one of them has a decent IQ).
    Essentially, he's right though.

    I just don't think he and Farage are remotely capable of implementing solutions either.
    There have been people predicting that society is on the edge of catastrophic collapse since humans started writing stuff down. And probably for much longer, talking around the campfire.

    People get to a point in middle life when they can no longer cope with the extent of change since their younger days, when their mind was more agile and open to change. So they give up on doing any sensible thinking about the state of affairs, and just cop out by saying that everything is going to ****.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,014
    MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Mexicanpete has been banned.

    About time Horse! He's not exactly on message. Good riddance I say!
    Mexicanpete has been exterminated.
    Oh God, another unplanned regeneration. Which reminds me, did you see it last night? It was[shuttup shuttup shuttup - Ed]
    Do You Hate Billie
    It would take an effort of will to hate Billie Piper due to her general niceness, although Lawrence Fox seems to have had a good go at it, the idiot

    But the whole two seasons was a mess. Millie's downgrading (she was promised no night shoots. Night shoots then happened. She threw a strop, RTD rewrote scripts and - hello Belinda), Disney having cold feet (shooting for series 16 was due to start in Q42024/Q12025, but it was paused indefinitely), Ncuti's sudden regeneration in response (requiring reshoots in Feb2025) means that the finale doesn't make sense and had weird bits.

    As for Billie Piper, ambiguity about her status from her and RTD means that she might not actually be the Sixteenth Doctor, and goodness knows I wouldn't put it past RTD to pull such a stupid stunt. Another stupid stunt.

    Damn. :(
    I'm behind on this.

    Disney is in Dr Who? Why? Is the Mickey Mouse Club involved?

    I trust that in due course we will have a dystopian episode set in the slightly-crumbling Celebration, Florida. perhaps modelled on the Truman Show or The City and the Stars, where the Dr's Assistant discovers a crumbling edge of a wall in a place that is supposed to be forever a 1990s vision of Bewitched laid over Gilead.

    The return of Rose Tyler sounds a good thing, though I hope the Dr has a good taste in male assistants. Are there any ex-Conservative MPs available? The Moggster might fit.
    She'd need to have chaise longue fitted in the TARDIS...
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 972

    Stereodog said:

    Stereodog said:

    MattW said:

    Stereodog said:

    Stereodog said:

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Ultimately neither Starmer or Hermer are going to do anything to recluse the ECHR or any other treaty as they are both human right lawyers who cannot imagine any challenge to the law, even though these laws are being questioned by many in Europe and not just on the right

    It would go against everything Starmer has been trained to believe but ultimately it will be his downfall if he does not stop the boats

    And I would just say to those arguing this is anti foreigner, it does not help your case as this is far from that but in most peoples eyes it is unfair and this is now even being expressed by Labour politicians who know they cannot make excuses anymore

    Starmer is exactly the kind of person who could sell a revised refugee convention to a domestic and international audience. Generous, robust and sensible.

    A bit like how the Conservatives did gay marriage.
    You may be right but that would take years and he doesn't have years to stop the boats

    And remarkably we are only a month away from Labour commencing their second year in office and owning their decisions
    I don't think stopping the boats is possible - or at least not within a 5 year period. A significant reduction? Maybe.

    But Labour can certainly make lots of cheap noise about it. Even a proposal would be valuable, particularly if they can challenge the French to sign up to it.
    And this is why people think the political system is broken. Stopping the boats could easily be done in practical terms but with the way we're governed it becomes impossible.
    "Could easily be done in practical terms" - really?

    On the assumption you're not advocating violence and on the assumption you can't get the French and others to play ball and on the third assumption an offshore facility in (fill in the blank) wouldn't be ready for months if not years, I'd genuinely welcome hearing a practical and coherent solution.
    What wrong with using violence to defend the integrity of our borders? Poland does it.
    Just so I'm clear - are you advocating the physical interdiction of migrant craft by, presumably, the Royal Navy or Border Patrol? Once intercepted, the migrants are taken back to French waters irrespective of location.

    Are you advocating something beyond even that? There's violence and there's something beyond violence.
    If you announce beforehand that from now on, boats will not be allowed to make the crossing and you will use all necessary means to prevent then, how long do you think it would be before they stop?
    But that would be a lie and everyone would know it. No UK government (even a Reform one) is going to take 'all means necessary ' if that means torpedoing boat loads of migrants or fighting the French navy to drop them back at Calais.
    It has to not be a lie. As for "no UK government" doing it, that's more evidence that we have a broken state that has forgotten what's its primary purpose is.
    Quite apart from anything else, I'm not sure the Navy would obey an order to open fire on unarmed civilians.
    In the middle of the Sunk Johnson Government (sorry), they were asked and rejected even "pushing back". They told Priti Patel to take a running jump.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/hot-topics/migrant-crisis/channel-migrant-crossings-navy-rejects-push-back-plan/
    They should have been told to go fuck themselves. Since when has the Navy dictated what it wants to do?
    Since it was established that "only obeying orders" wasn't a valid defence?
    God help us when we need them to *actually* do anything, the useless shower.
    Yes they'll be totally unprepared for when we *actually* need them to intentionally drown civilians.
    A politicised paramilitary force to do the government's bidding - yes, there will be volunteers - is precisely where we'll end up one day if regular government departments refuse to enact the policies of the elected administration of the day.

    Let's hope it never comes to that.
    Ah another outing of the Leon 'If you don't collude in bad thing happening then really bad thing will happen' argument. Saying that the military needs to intentionally kill unarmed civilians otherwise a paramilitary group will do it for them isn't a very good policy proposal.
    I didn't say that, dickhead.

    Idiots like you will be exactly the reason bad things will happen, because you're totally incapable of seeing any point of view different to your own, or coming up with any solution to the problems people are concerned about, and instead want to resist moderate measures at every turn.

    The first person the people will turn on will be you.
    Well you and I have different interpretations of moderate but that's beside the point. What I dislike is people blaming institutions for adhering to the rules rather than the elected politicians who come up with unworkable ideas that they don't want to be accountable for the consequences of.

    The Navy was right to say that they're forbidden from intentionally putting unarmed civilians in danger within UK waters because it's true. The government can change that if they want but they have to live with the consequences.

    Civil Servants have a duty to advise ministers if they think something is illegal, unworkable or ruinously expensive. Again, the government can ignore that if they wish but it's not the fault of civil servants for giving the advice in the first place.

    I don't really care if people turn on me if it's a consequence of saying clearly what I believe to be true.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,065
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    He appears to be a bit upset
    He's becoming a parody of himself.

    That's what you would get if you handed ChatGPT his entire opus, and asked it to produce something ridiculous in the tone of Dominic Cummings.

    I haven't been able to take him seriously since he verbally assaulted the BA staff on a flight to the US
    Really? Was that before or after the train crash he oversaw in education?
    I was on a flight from London to either LA or SF, I don't remember which, and he was a few seats away from him. And I just remember him being unbelievably rude to the staff, along the lines of "what can I get you to drink?", "can't you see I'm busy".
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,846
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    He appears to be a bit upset
    He's becoming a parody of himself.

    That's what you would get if you handed ChatGPT his entire opus, and asked it to produce something ridiculous in the tone of Dominic Cummings.

    I haven't been able to take him seriously since he verbally assaulted the BA staff on a flight to the US
    Really? Was that before or after the train crash he oversaw in education?
    I was on a flight from London to either LA or SF, I don't remember which, and he was a few seats away from him. And I just remember him being unbelievably rude to the staff, along the lines of "what can I get you to drink?", "can't you see I'm busy".
    He sounds like Barbra Streisand.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,610
    Battlebus said:

    Wonder what Reform will do about urban planning? This seems to sum up some of the issues.

    “Since about 1940, the population of Los Angeles has grown at about the same rate as the population of London. Los Angeles is now so enormous that if you somehow managed to pick it up and plonk it down on England, it would extend from Brighton on the south coast to Cambridge in the north-east. That’s what happens if you don’t have a green belt.”
    Do they have policies?

    I'd say that London has space available to cover another century or two, or more, without too much sprawl. It requires strategy and planning, though.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,519
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    He appears to be a bit upset
    He's becoming a parody of himself.

    That's what you would get if you handed ChatGPT his entire opus, and asked it to produce something ridiculous in the tone of Dominic Cummings.

    I haven't been able to take him seriously since he verbally assaulted the BA staff on a flight to the US
    Really? Was that before or after the train crash he oversaw in education?
    I was on a flight from London to either LA or SF, I don't remember which, and he was a few seats away from him. And I just remember him being unbelievably rude to the staff, along the lines of "what can I get you to drink?", "can't you see I'm busy".
    He sounds like Barbra Streisand.
    4 years living in Russia would not improve your manners.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,846
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    LLM: Dominic Cummings’ blog post is a sprawling, impassioned essay arguing that Britain is on the brink of social, political, and institutional collapse — and that the current political class is incapable of seeing or managing the crisis.

    Key Points:

    1. Britain is Sliding Toward Chaos
    Cummings warns of growing unrest, racial violence, and collapse of public order, as both Islamist and nationalist forces gain ground.

    2. Political Leaders Are Failing
    Sunak and Starmer are “Dead Players,” trapped in delusion. Both ignore the need to change legal frameworks like the HRA/ECHR to stop illegal immigration, pretending solutions exist without reforms.

    3. The State Is Dysfunctional
    Whitehall, especially the Cabinet Office and National Security Secretariat, is opaque, unaccountable, and blocks real reform. The attack on Special Forces is a symbol of broader institutional decay.

    4. Collapse of Traditional Parties
    The Tories are gutted of members, donors, and ideas. Labour is torn between liberal Londoners and working-class voters, enraging both with its immigration stance. Neither party can adapt.

    5. Farage as the Only Dynamic Force
    Farage is seen as the only figure with momentum. If he builds a real team, he could lead a political realignment. Reform is still just him and a phone, but the old parties are collapsing fast.

    6. Historical & Systems Thinking
    Cummings draws on thinkers like Tocqueville, Turchin, and von Neumann to show this collapse fits long-term historical patterns. He calls for “systems politics” based on complex systems theory — still ignored in Whitehall.

    7. Open Questions
    He ends by asking how fast collapse will come, what Farage will do, how Whitehall will react, and how violence might spread. He warns the immigration and legal systems are unsustainable, and action is urgent.

    In one line:

    Cummings says Britain is in systemic decline, governed by delusional elites, and only radical reform or a Farage-led populist force can avert chaos.
    One begins to wonder whether Cummo and our Leon have ever been seen in the same room (then remembers that only one of them has a decent IQ).
    Essentially, he's right though.

    I just don't think he and Farage are remotely capable of implementing solutions either.
    There have been people predicting that society is on the edge of catastrophic collapse since humans started writing stuff down. And probably for much longer, talking around the campfire.
    Sometimes it is.

    But, I think we’re still a long way from that.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,991
    MattW said:

    Looks like some interesting thinking has gone into the SDR:

    "The Strategic Defence Review will set out a new way of fighting known as “20-40-40”, which aims to reduce troop casualties. This “autonomy drive” is part of innovation plans that will form a chunk of the review.


    Expensive, heavy equipment such as tanks will make up roughly 20 per cent of fighting capability, positioned further from the front line until a later stage of battle.



    Soldiers in Challenger 3 tanks will deploy kamikaze drones and others will fire long-range precision missiles at the enemy. “Single-use” items such as drones that explode on impact and shells, make up this “40” element.



    Reusable drones, typically costlier and more durable reconnaissance or attack drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper, will make up the remaining “40”.
    "


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/strategic-defence-review-2025-vw9h6gzfx

    Was it the Bismarck that could not fend off bi-planes because they flew too slowly for its anti-aircraft guns?

    Anyway, the point is that modern air defences are designed to shoot down planes and missiles at mach think-of-a-number but drones fly low and slow and it is surely only a question of time before effective anti-drone weapons are produced.

    What might be the future, and present, use of drones is what the Ukrainians have done and launch them right next to the target so there is little time to react.

    As well as what we see at racecourses every day and periodically at military bases which is drones used for surveillance. Punters use drones to get their own pictures of races that are different from and, crucially, ahead of supposedly live, broadcast pictures.
    There are a number of good pieces over at the UK Defence Journal. This is one on drones that I highlighted last night, about the number of drones flying in restricted airspace at the launch of HMS Glasgow.

    Quite an interesting piece about the potential drone threat in the UK, from the editor of the UK Defence Journal, who regularly flies his drone (with CAA and police knowledge) to report on frigates being built at Glasgow.

    He reports at least a dozen drones flying at the launch of HMS Glasgow, with a number in restricted air space.

    Earlier this year, I submitted a Freedom of Information request to Police Scotland. I asked how many drone incidents had been recorded in the area surrounding a number of shipyards since January 2020. Their response revealed that 99 drone-related incidents had been reported within the Flight Restriction Zone during that period.

    Only four of those incidents resulted in crime reports, and only two led to detected crimes, where a suspect was identified and a report submitted to the Crown Office. In both of those cases, the drones were confiscated.


    I think this is going to be tightened up on in due course. It's the same phenomenon we were discussing last week of a perceived entitlement to break the law if we decide that it is "minor".

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/the-age-of-drone-warfare-has-arrived-is-uk-industry-safe/
    Confiscating hobbyists' drones might satisfy politicians but what about Russian, Chinese and American government-issued spy drones flying around military bases? Even if they could have got the information on frigates being built at Glasgow from reading the papers.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,610
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    He appears to be a bit upset
    He's becoming a parody of himself.

    That's what you would get if you handed ChatGPT his entire opus, and asked it to produce something ridiculous in the tone of Dominic Cummings.

    I haven't been able to take him seriously since he verbally assaulted the BA staff on a flight to the US
    Really? Was that before or after the train crash he oversaw in education?
    I was on a flight from London to either LA or SF, I don't remember which, and he was a few seats away from him. And I just remember him being unbelievably rude to the staff, along the lines of "what can I get you to drink?", "can't you see I'm busy".
    He sounds like Barbra Streisand.
    Dear Lord that piece.

    Shouldn't he be spending his time running the County of Durham Council?

    @Taz is perhaps paying him quite a lot of money to do it, I think.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,743
    MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Mexicanpete has been banned.

    About time Horse! He's not exactly on message. Good riddance I say!
    Mexicanpete has been exterminated.
    Oh God, another unplanned regeneration. Which reminds me, did you see it last night? It was[shuttup shuttup shuttup - Ed]
    Do You Hate Billie
    It would take an effort of will to hate Billie Piper due to her general niceness, although Lawrence Fox seems to have had a good go at it, the idiot

    But the whole two seasons was a mess. Millie's downgrading (she was promised no night shoots. Night shoots then happened. She threw a strop, RTD rewrote scripts and - hello Belinda), Disney having cold feet (shooting for series 16 was due to start in Q42024/Q12025, but it was paused indefinitely), Ncuti's sudden regeneration in response (requiring reshoots in Feb2025) means that the finale doesn't make sense and had weird bits.

    As for Billie Piper, ambiguity about her status from her and RTD means that she might not actually be the Sixteenth Doctor, and goodness knows I wouldn't put it past RTD to pull such a stupid stunt. Another stupid stunt.

    Damn. :(
    I'm behind on this.

    Disney is in Dr Who? Why? Is the Mickey Mouse Club involved?

    I trust that in due course we will have a dystopian episode set in the slightly-crumbling Celebration, Florida. perhaps modelled on the Truman Show or The City and the Stars, where the Dr's Assistant discovers a crumbling edge of a wall in a place that is supposed to be forever a 1990s vision of Bewitched laid over Gilead.

    The return of Rose Tyler sounds a good thing, though I hope the Dr has a good taste in male assistants. Are there any ex-Conservative MPs available? The Moggster might fit.
    Disney contributes money towards production costs. It’s a joint production.

    We don’t know if it is Rose Tyler or even if the show is coming back. Disney are said to have cold feed funding more due to the poor ratings of the first run.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,743
    MattW said:

    Battlebus said:

    Wonder what Reform will do about urban planning? This seems to sum up some of the issues.

    “Since about 1940, the population of Los Angeles has grown at about the same rate as the population of London. Los Angeles is now so enormous that if you somehow managed to pick it up and plonk it down on England, it would extend from Brighton on the south coast to Cambridge in the north-east. That’s what happens if you don’t have a green belt.”
    Do they have policies?

    I'd say that London has space available to cover another century or two, or more, without too much sprawl. It requires strategy and planning, though.
    Even if they have we have plenty of Quangos out there happy to impede any development.

    https://x.com/mrsimondudley/status/1929412682349768957?s=61
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,991
    Scott_xP said:

    @sgfmann.bsky.social‬

    The Sun: Liz Truss flogging whiskey for ex-con in Scunthorpe

    https://bsky.app/profile/sgfmann.bsky.social/post/3lql6sgnoc224

    Former PM Liz Truss joins bare-knuckle fight thug who battered OAP to launch his whiskey – and even copies catchphrase

    The video has raised further questions over the former PM's apparent lack of judgement

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/35212669/liz-truss-dougie-joyce-whiskey-video/
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,743
    Outrage in Warrington as travellers bulldoze a six acre green belt site and put gravel on it.

    I dunno, part of me thinks good for them. They don’t fuck about listening to morons like Natural England. They buy the land cheap, then just crack on and expect retrospective planning permission.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/01/travellers-green-belt-field-car-park-72-hours/
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,110
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    "FBI says it is investigating 'targeted terror attack' in Colorado, US, after reports people injured"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cjdx44kx5zxt

    BBC has a live page, so presumably serious.

    https://x.com/afpost/status/1929299898131734992

    A man hurled Molotov cocktails at a pro-Israel hostage protest in Boulder, Colorado, setting multiple people on fire in what the FBI is calling a targeted terror attack.
    Looks from that like it's been contained.
    Victims ages ranged from 67 to 88

    What sort of guy does that?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,610
    edited June 2

    MattW said:

    Looks like some interesting thinking has gone into the SDR:

    "The Strategic Defence Review will set out a new way of fighting known as “20-40-40”, which aims to reduce troop casualties. This “autonomy drive” is part of innovation plans that will form a chunk of the review.


    Expensive, heavy equipment such as tanks will make up roughly 20 per cent of fighting capability, positioned further from the front line until a later stage of battle.



    Soldiers in Challenger 3 tanks will deploy kamikaze drones and others will fire long-range precision missiles at the enemy. “Single-use” items such as drones that explode on impact and shells, make up this “40” element.



    Reusable drones, typically costlier and more durable reconnaissance or attack drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper, will make up the remaining “40”.
    "


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/strategic-defence-review-2025-vw9h6gzfx

    Was it the Bismarck that could not fend off bi-planes because they flew too slowly for its anti-aircraft guns?

    Anyway, the point is that modern air defences are designed to shoot down planes and missiles at mach think-of-a-number but drones fly low and slow and it is surely only a question of time before effective anti-drone weapons are produced.

    What might be the future, and present, use of drones is what the Ukrainians have done and launch them right next to the target so there is little time to react.

    As well as what we see at racecourses every day and periodically at military bases which is drones used for surveillance. Punters use drones to get their own pictures of races that are different from and, crucially, ahead of supposedly live, broadcast pictures.
    There are a number of good pieces over at the UK Defence Journal. This is one on drones that I highlighted last night, about the number of drones flying in restricted airspace at the launch of HMS Glasgow.

    Quite an interesting piece about the potential drone threat in the UK, from the editor of the UK Defence Journal, who regularly flies his drone (with CAA and police knowledge) to report on frigates being built at Glasgow.

    He reports at least a dozen drones flying at the launch of HMS Glasgow, with a number in restricted air space.

    Earlier this year, I submitted a Freedom of Information request to Police Scotland. I asked how many drone incidents had been recorded in the area surrounding a number of shipyards since January 2020. Their response revealed that 99 drone-related incidents had been reported within the Flight Restriction Zone during that period.

    Only four of those incidents resulted in crime reports, and only two led to detected crimes, where a suspect was identified and a report submitted to the Crown Office. In both of those cases, the drones were confiscated.


    I think this is going to be tightened up on in due course. It's the same phenomenon we were discussing last week of a perceived entitlement to break the law if we decide that it is "minor".

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/the-age-of-drone-warfare-has-arrived-is-uk-industry-safe/
    Confiscating hobbyists' drones might satisfy politicians but what about Russian, Chinese and American government-issued spy drones flying around military bases? Even if they could have got the information on frigates being built at Glasgow from reading the papers.
    I don't think it will be about confiscating hobbyists drones; it would be about preventing flights in areas where there is sufficient perceived risk.

    There are all kinds of minor crime where more serious offenders hide amongst the herd of petty criminals. I think there is perhaps value in removing the fluff.

    It would only take a very minor hit to add a year to the time to build a frigate. We have extensive hybrid attacks already, and if damage were caused once there would be enormous bad publicity, and a mountain of self-righteous commentary demanding "why was nothing done" from exactly the same quarters that would selfrighteously demand "why did you do something" if it were done.

    We'll see if anything emerges. I don't think the current setup is sustainable in the security environment that we now have.

    Maybe part of the new auxiliary forces will be military policemen around bases.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,743
    MattW said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    He appears to be a bit upset
    He's becoming a parody of himself.

    That's what you would get if you handed ChatGPT his entire opus, and asked it to produce something ridiculous in the tone of Dominic Cummings.

    I haven't been able to take him seriously since he verbally assaulted the BA staff on a flight to the US
    Really? Was that before or after the train crash he oversaw in education?
    I was on a flight from London to either LA or SF, I don't remember which, and he was a few seats away from him. And I just remember him being unbelievably rude to the staff, along the lines of "what can I get you to drink?", "can't you see I'm busy".
    He sounds like Barbra Streisand.
    Dear Lord that piece.

    Shouldn't he be spending his time running the County of Durham Council?

    @Taz is perhaps paying him quite a lot of money to do it, I think.
    Band C property and it’s a small fortune, especially for a retiree !
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,743
    Stereodog said:

    Stereodog said:

    Stereodog said:

    MattW said:

    Stereodog said:

    Stereodog said:

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Ultimately neither Starmer or Hermer are going to do anything to recluse the ECHR or any other treaty as they are both human right lawyers who cannot imagine any challenge to the law, even though these laws are being questioned by many in Europe and not just on the right

    It would go against everything Starmer has been trained to believe but ultimately it will be his downfall if he does not stop the boats

    And I would just say to those arguing this is anti foreigner, it does not help your case as this is far from that but in most peoples eyes it is unfair and this is now even being expressed by Labour politicians who know they cannot make excuses anymore

    Starmer is exactly the kind of person who could sell a revised refugee convention to a domestic and international audience. Generous, robust and sensible.

    A bit like how the Conservatives did gay marriage.
    You may be right but that would take years and he doesn't have years to stop the boats

    And remarkably we are only a month away from Labour commencing their second year in office and owning their decisions
    I don't think stopping the boats is possible - or at least not within a 5 year period. A significant reduction? Maybe.

    But Labour can certainly make lots of cheap noise about it. Even a proposal would be valuable, particularly if they can challenge the French to sign up to it.
    And this is why people think the political system is broken. Stopping the boats could easily be done in practical terms but with the way we're governed it becomes impossible.
    "Could easily be done in practical terms" - really?

    On the assumption you're not advocating violence and on the assumption you can't get the French and others to play ball and on the third assumption an offshore facility in (fill in the blank) wouldn't be ready for months if not years, I'd genuinely welcome hearing a practical and coherent solution.
    What wrong with using violence to defend the integrity of our borders? Poland does it.
    Just so I'm clear - are you advocating the physical interdiction of migrant craft by, presumably, the Royal Navy or Border Patrol? Once intercepted, the migrants are taken back to French waters irrespective of location.

    Are you advocating something beyond even that? There's violence and there's something beyond violence.
    If you announce beforehand that from now on, boats will not be allowed to make the crossing and you will use all necessary means to prevent then, how long do you think it would be before they stop?
    But that would be a lie and everyone would know it. No UK government (even a Reform one) is going to take 'all means necessary ' if that means torpedoing boat loads of migrants or fighting the French navy to drop them back at Calais.
    It has to not be a lie. As for "no UK government" doing it, that's more evidence that we have a broken state that has forgotten what's its primary purpose is.
    Quite apart from anything else, I'm not sure the Navy would obey an order to open fire on unarmed civilians.
    In the middle of the Sunk Johnson Government (sorry), they were asked and rejected even "pushing back". They told Priti Patel to take a running jump.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/hot-topics/migrant-crisis/channel-migrant-crossings-navy-rejects-push-back-plan/
    They should have been told to go fuck themselves. Since when has the Navy dictated what it wants to do?
    Since it was established that "only obeying orders" wasn't a valid defence?
    God help us when we need them to *actually* do anything, the useless shower.
    Yes they'll be totally unprepared for when we *actually* need them to intentionally drown civilians.
    A politicised paramilitary force to do the government's bidding - yes, there will be volunteers - is precisely where we'll end up one day if regular government departments refuse to enact the policies of the elected administration of the day.

    Let's hope it never comes to that.
    Ah another outing of the Leon 'If you don't collude in bad thing happening then really bad thing will happen' argument. Saying that the military needs to intentionally kill unarmed civilians otherwise a paramilitary group will do it for them isn't a very good policy proposal.
    I didn't say that, dickhead.

    Idiots like you will be exactly the reason bad things will happen, because you're totally incapable of seeing any point of view different to your own, or coming up with any solution to the problems people are concerned about, and instead want to resist moderate measures at every turn.

    The first person the people will turn on will be you.
    Well you and I have different interpretations of moderate but that's beside the point. What I dislike is people blaming institutions for adhering to the rules rather than the elected politicians who come up with unworkable ideas that they don't want to be accountable for the consequences of.

    The Navy was right to say that they're forbidden from intentionally putting unarmed civilians in danger within UK waters because it's true. The government can change that if they want but they have to live with the consequences.

    Civil Servants have a duty to advise ministers if they think something is illegal, unworkable or ruinously expensive. Again, the government can ignore that if they wish but it's not the fault of civil servants for giving the advice in the first place.

    I don't really care if people turn on me if it's a consequence of saying clearly what I believe to be true.
    It’s smart politics though. The politics of blame avoidance. Set up an unelected body and make them responsible for decisions, like the malign Natural England, and then when they make the decisions simply say ‘not me, guv’.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,233

    NEW THREAD

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,554
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Mexicanpete has been banned.

    About time Horse! He's not exactly on message. Good riddance I say!
    Mexicanpete has been exterminated.
    Oh God, another unplanned regeneration. Which reminds me, did you see it last night? It was[shuttup shuttup shuttup - Ed]
    Do You Hate Billie
    It would take an effort of will to hate Billie Piper due to her general niceness, although Lawrence Fox seems to have had a good go at it, the idiot

    But the whole two seasons was a mess. Millie's downgrading (she was promised no night shoots. Night shoots then happened. She threw a strop, RTD rewrote scripts and - hello Belinda), Disney having cold feet (shooting for series 16 was due to start in Q42024/Q12025, but it was paused indefinitely), Ncuti's sudden regeneration in response (requiring reshoots in Feb2025) means that the finale doesn't make sense and had weird bits.

    As for Billie Piper, ambiguity about her status from her and RTD means that she might not actually be the Sixteenth Doctor, and goodness knows I wouldn't put it past RTD to pull such a stupid stunt. Another stupid stunt.

    Damn. :(
    There were some good episodes (76 Yards, The Story and the Engine, The Well). I thought the final act of Saturday’s finale was affecting.

    The ambiguity around Piper’s status is causing chaos on Wikipedia.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 888
    Taz said:

    Outrage in Warrington as travellers bulldoze a six acre green belt site and put gravel on it.

    I dunno, part of me thinks good for them. They don’t fuck about listening to morons like Natural England. They buy the land cheap, then just crack on and expect retrospective planning permission.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/01/travellers-green-belt-field-car-park-72-hours/

    @IanB2 could probably comment but provision of spaces for the Traveller community is subject to specific legislation. Not all councils are willing to meet their obligations so you get this sort of direct action/self help.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,212
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Mexicanpete has been banned.

    About time Horse! He's not exactly on message. Good riddance I say!
    Mexicanpete has been exterminated.
    Oh God, another unplanned regeneration. Which reminds me, did you see it last night? It was[shuttup shuttup shuttup - Ed]
    Do You Hate Billie
    It would take an effort of will to hate Billie Piper due to her general niceness, although Lawrence Fox seems to have had a good go at it, the idiot

    But the whole two seasons was a mess. Millie's downgrading (she was promised no night shoots. Night shoots then happened. She threw a strop, RTD rewrote scripts and - hello Belinda), Disney having cold feet (shooting for series 16 was due to start in Q42024/Q12025, but it was paused indefinitely), Ncuti's sudden regeneration in response (requiring reshoots in Feb2025) means that the finale doesn't make sense and had weird bits.

    As for Billie Piper, ambiguity about her status from her and RTD means that she might not actually be the Sixteenth Doctor, and goodness knows I wouldn't put it past RTD to pull such a stupid stunt. Another stupid stunt.

    Damn. :(
    I'm behind on this.

    Disney is in Dr Who? Why? Is the Mickey Mouse Club involved?

    I trust that in due course we will have a dystopian episode set in the slightly-crumbling Celebration, Florida. perhaps modelled on the Truman Show or The City and the Stars, where the Dr's Assistant discovers a crumbling edge of a wall in a place that is supposed to be forever a 1990s vision of Bewitched laid over Gilead.

    The return of Rose Tyler sounds a good thing, though I hope the Dr has a good taste in male assistants. Are there any ex-Conservative MPs available? The Moggster might fit.
    Disney contributes money towards production costs. It’s a joint production.

    We don’t know if it is Rose Tyler or even if the show is coming back. Disney are said to have cold feed funding more due to the poor ratings of the first run.
    The reason why Ncuti was regenerated is that Dr Who only had first option on his priority in 2025 and with filming delayed he isn't around for filming in 2026..
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,610
    edited June 2
    Taz said:

    Outrage in Warrington as travellers bulldoze a six acre green belt site and put gravel on it.

    I dunno, part of me thinks good for them. They don’t fuck about listening to morons like Natural England. They buy the land cheap, then just crack on and expect retrospective planning permission.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/01/travellers-green-belt-field-car-park-72-hours/

    If the Council want it removed, they have to act immediately (ie in days). Otherwise it risks getting to the point where the facts on the ground change the "balance" is in favour of development.

    Do they have a) The competence, b) The resolution? For effect, they really need an ex-parte injunction today, with a lot of publicity.
    Battlebus said:

    @IanB2 could probably comment but provision of spaces for the Traveller community is subject to specific legislation. Not all councils are willing to meet their obligations so you get this sort of direct action/self help.

    In my region there are illegally developed traveller sites, to which the Council has eventually caved, which are centres of organised crime - dog fighting is one example. The relevant Councils usually meet legal obligations.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,743

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Mexicanpete has been banned.

    About time Horse! He's not exactly on message. Good riddance I say!
    Mexicanpete has been exterminated.
    Oh God, another unplanned regeneration. Which reminds me, did you see it last night? It was[shuttup shuttup shuttup - Ed]
    Do You Hate Billie
    It would take an effort of will to hate Billie Piper due to her general niceness, although Lawrence Fox seems to have had a good go at it, the idiot

    But the whole two seasons was a mess. Millie's downgrading (she was promised no night shoots. Night shoots then happened. She threw a strop, RTD rewrote scripts and - hello Belinda), Disney having cold feet (shooting for series 16 was due to start in Q42024/Q12025, but it was paused indefinitely), Ncuti's sudden regeneration in response (requiring reshoots in Feb2025) means that the finale doesn't make sense and had weird bits.

    As for Billie Piper, ambiguity about her status from her and RTD means that she might not actually be the Sixteenth Doctor, and goodness knows I wouldn't put it past RTD to pull such a stupid stunt. Another stupid stunt.

    Damn. :(
    There were some good episodes (76 Yards, The Story and the Engine, The Well). I thought the final act of Saturday’s finale was affecting.

    The ambiguity around Piper’s status is causing chaos on Wikipedia.
    There’ll be an interesting book to be written on the RTD II era.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,110
    Battlebus said:

    Wonder what Reform will do about urban planning? This seems to sum up some of the issues.

    “Since about 1940, the population of Los Angeles has grown at about the same rate as the population of London. Los Angeles is now so enormous that if you somehow managed to pick it up and plonk it down on England, it would extend from Brighton on the south coast to Cambridge in the north-east. That’s what happens if you don’t have a green belt.”
    That’s also because of the unique geography of LA
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,596
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: just seen a new fun stat on Twitter.

    In 2025, Hulkenberg has 16 points. This compares to 7 for Red Bull's second drivers.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,457
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    LLM: Dominic Cummings’ blog post is a sprawling, impassioned essay arguing that Britain is on the brink of social, political, and institutional collapse — and that the current political class is incapable of seeing or managing the crisis.

    Key Points:

    1. Britain is Sliding Toward Chaos
    Cummings warns of growing unrest, racial violence, and collapse of public order, as both Islamist and nationalist forces gain ground.

    2. Political Leaders Are Failing
    Sunak and Starmer are “Dead Players,” trapped in delusion. Both ignore the need to change legal frameworks like the HRA/ECHR to stop illegal immigration, pretending solutions exist without reforms.

    3. The State Is Dysfunctional
    Whitehall, especially the Cabinet Office and National Security Secretariat, is opaque, unaccountable, and blocks real reform. The attack on Special Forces is a symbol of broader institutional decay.

    4. Collapse of Traditional Parties
    The Tories are gutted of members, donors, and ideas. Labour is torn between liberal Londoners and working-class voters, enraging both with its immigration stance. Neither party can adapt.

    5. Farage as the Only Dynamic Force
    Farage is seen as the only figure with momentum. If he builds a real team, he could lead a political realignment. Reform is still just him and a phone, but the old parties are collapsing fast.

    6. Historical & Systems Thinking
    Cummings draws on thinkers like Tocqueville, Turchin, and von Neumann to show this collapse fits long-term historical patterns. He calls for “systems politics” based on complex systems theory — still ignored in Whitehall.

    7. Open Questions
    He ends by asking how fast collapse will come, what Farage will do, how Whitehall will react, and how violence might spread. He warns the immigration and legal systems are unsustainable, and action is urgent.

    In one line:

    Cummings says Britain is in systemic decline, governed by delusional elites, and only radical reform or a Farage-led populist force can avert chaos.
    One begins to wonder whether Cummo and our Leon have ever been seen in the same room (then remembers that only one of them has a decent IQ).
    Essentially, he's right though.

    I just don't think he and Farage are remotely capable of implementing solutions either.
    There have been people predicting that society is on the edge of catastrophic collapse since humans started writing stuff down. And probably for much longer, talking around the campfire.

    People get to a point in middle life when they can no longer cope with the extent of change since their younger days, when their mind was more agile and open to change. So they give up on doing any sensible thinking about the state of affairs, and just cop out by saying that everything is going to ****.
    The trouble with the boy who cried wolf argument, though, is that the wolf eventually came.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,628

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    LLM: Dominic Cummings’ blog post is a sprawling, impassioned essay arguing that Britain is on the brink of social, political, and institutional collapse — and that the current political class is incapable of seeing or managing the crisis.

    Key Points:

    1. Britain is Sliding Toward Chaos
    Cummings warns of growing unrest, racial violence, and collapse of public order, as both Islamist and nationalist forces gain ground.

    2. Political Leaders Are Failing
    Sunak and Starmer are “Dead Players,” trapped in delusion. Both ignore the need to change legal frameworks like the HRA/ECHR to stop illegal immigration, pretending solutions exist without reforms.

    3. The State Is Dysfunctional
    Whitehall, especially the Cabinet Office and National Security Secretariat, is opaque, unaccountable, and blocks real reform. The attack on Special Forces is a symbol of broader institutional decay.

    4. Collapse of Traditional Parties
    The Tories are gutted of members, donors, and ideas. Labour is torn between liberal Londoners and working-class voters, enraging both with its immigration stance. Neither party can adapt.

    5. Farage as the Only Dynamic Force
    Farage is seen as the only figure with momentum. If he builds a real team, he could lead a political realignment. Reform is still just him and a phone, but the old parties are collapsing fast.

    6. Historical & Systems Thinking
    Cummings draws on thinkers like Tocqueville, Turchin, and von Neumann to show this collapse fits long-term historical patterns. He calls for “systems politics” based on complex systems theory — still ignored in Whitehall.

    7. Open Questions
    He ends by asking how fast collapse will come, what Farage will do, how Whitehall will react, and how violence might spread. He warns the immigration and legal systems are unsustainable, and action is urgent.

    In one line:

    Cummings says Britain is in systemic decline, governed by delusional elites, and only radical reform or a Farage-led populist force can avert chaos.
    One begins to wonder whether Cummo and our Leon have ever been seen in the same room (then remembers that only one of them has a decent IQ).
    Essentially, he's right though.

    I just don't think he and Farage are remotely capable of implementing solutions either.
    There have been people predicting that society is on the edge of catastrophic collapse since humans started writing stuff down. And probably for much longer, talking around the campfire.

    People get to a point in middle life when they can no longer cope with the extent of change since their younger days, when their mind was more agile and open to change. So they give up on doing any sensible thinking about the state of affairs, and just cop out by saying that everything is going to ****.
    The trouble with the boy who cried wolf argument, though, is that the wolf eventually came.
    Logically, that doesn't help with the issue.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,731
    nico67 said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think Nawrocki has won decisively. 55% to 45%
    Based on scaling up of current results in all regions.

    Earlier exit polls might have missed the likely increase in younger voters who normally vote later in the day and there has been an increase in support for the right in that group .

    I don’t think the diaspora are included in the exit poll so perhaps a crumb there for the Warsaw major .

    There’s a further late exit poll to come which includes more partial results .
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx27897vedno
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,457
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    LLM: Dominic Cummings’ blog post is a sprawling, impassioned essay arguing that Britain is on the brink of social, political, and institutional collapse — and that the current political class is incapable of seeing or managing the crisis.

    Key Points:

    1. Britain is Sliding Toward Chaos
    Cummings warns of growing unrest, racial violence, and collapse of public order, as both Islamist and nationalist forces gain ground.

    2. Political Leaders Are Failing
    Sunak and Starmer are “Dead Players,” trapped in delusion. Both ignore the need to change legal frameworks like the HRA/ECHR to stop illegal immigration, pretending solutions exist without reforms.

    3. The State Is Dysfunctional
    Whitehall, especially the Cabinet Office and National Security Secretariat, is opaque, unaccountable, and blocks real reform. The attack on Special Forces is a symbol of broader institutional decay.

    4. Collapse of Traditional Parties
    The Tories are gutted of members, donors, and ideas. Labour is torn between liberal Londoners and working-class voters, enraging both with its immigration stance. Neither party can adapt.

    5. Farage as the Only Dynamic Force
    Farage is seen as the only figure with momentum. If he builds a real team, he could lead a political realignment. Reform is still just him and a phone, but the old parties are collapsing fast.

    6. Historical & Systems Thinking
    Cummings draws on thinkers like Tocqueville, Turchin, and von Neumann to show this collapse fits long-term historical patterns. He calls for “systems politics” based on complex systems theory — still ignored in Whitehall.

    7. Open Questions
    He ends by asking how fast collapse will come, what Farage will do, how Whitehall will react, and how violence might spread. He warns the immigration and legal systems are unsustainable, and action is urgent.

    In one line:

    Cummings says Britain is in systemic decline, governed by delusional elites, and only radical reform or a Farage-led populist force can avert chaos.
    One begins to wonder whether Cummo and our Leon have ever been seen in the same room (then remembers that only one of them has a decent IQ).
    Essentially, he's right though.

    I just don't think he and Farage are remotely capable of implementing solutions either.
    There have been people predicting that society is on the edge of catastrophic collapse since humans started writing stuff down. And probably for much longer, talking around the campfire.

    People get to a point in middle life when they can no longer cope with the extent of change since their younger days, when their mind was more agile and open to change. So they give up on doing any sensible thinking about the state of affairs, and just cop out by saying that everything is going to ****.
    The trouble with the boy who cried wolf argument, though, is that the wolf eventually came.
    Logically, that doesn't help with the issue.
    It does, because the easiest thing to do is dismiss this and bat it away.

    The fact Trump won in America, when he shouldn't have done, and Reform may win next time here, for the first time ever, are clear red flags.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,842

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dom's latest blog post.

    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/people-ideas-machines-xii-theories

    (If anyone understands it properly, let me know what it's about).

    LLM: Dominic Cummings’ blog post is a sprawling, impassioned essay arguing that Britain is on the brink of social, political, and institutional collapse — and that the current political class is incapable of seeing or managing the crisis.

    Key Points:

    1. Britain is Sliding Toward Chaos
    Cummings warns of growing unrest, racial violence, and collapse of public order, as both Islamist and nationalist forces gain ground.

    2. Political Leaders Are Failing
    Sunak and Starmer are “Dead Players,” trapped in delusion. Both ignore the need to change legal frameworks like the HRA/ECHR to stop illegal immigration, pretending solutions exist without reforms.

    3. The State Is Dysfunctional
    Whitehall, especially the Cabinet Office and National Security Secretariat, is opaque, unaccountable, and blocks real reform. The attack on Special Forces is a symbol of broader institutional decay.

    4. Collapse of Traditional Parties
    The Tories are gutted of members, donors, and ideas. Labour is torn between liberal Londoners and working-class voters, enraging both with its immigration stance. Neither party can adapt.

    5. Farage as the Only Dynamic Force
    Farage is seen as the only figure with momentum. If he builds a real team, he could lead a political realignment. Reform is still just him and a phone, but the old parties are collapsing fast.

    6. Historical & Systems Thinking
    Cummings draws on thinkers like Tocqueville, Turchin, and von Neumann to show this collapse fits long-term historical patterns. He calls for “systems politics” based on complex systems theory — still ignored in Whitehall.

    7. Open Questions
    He ends by asking how fast collapse will come, what Farage will do, how Whitehall will react, and how violence might spread. He warns the immigration and legal systems are unsustainable, and action is urgent.

    In one line:

    Cummings says Britain is in systemic decline, governed by delusional elites, and only radical reform or a Farage-led populist force can avert chaos.
    One begins to wonder whether Cummo and our Leon have ever been seen in the same room (then remembers that only one of them has a decent IQ).
    Essentially, he's right though.

    I just don't think he and Farage are remotely capable of implementing solutions either.
    There have been people predicting that society is on the edge of catastrophic collapse since humans started writing stuff down. And probably for much longer, talking around the campfire.

    People get to a point in middle life when they can no longer cope with the extent of change since their younger days, when their mind was more agile and open to change. So they give up on doing any sensible thinking about the state of affairs, and just cop out by saying that everything is going to ****.
    The trouble with the boy who cried wolf argument, though, is that the wolf eventually came.
    Logically, that doesn't help with the issue.
    It does, because the easiest thing to do is dismiss this and bat it away.

    The fact Trump won in America, when he shouldn't have done, and Reform may win next time here, for the first time ever, are clear red flags.
    However, whether he likes it or not, Cummings is the wrong person to say this stuff. Partly because he made it to the top of his preferred ladder and screwed up massively.

    But mostly because the forces of populism are forces that he summoned and amplified to power his ascent. He's not so much a boy who cried wolf as a boy with a wolf-breeding programme who cried wolf after he let the wolves out.

    Even as far as he is right, he's in a similar position to Truss and Johnson. The causes he supports would be better served by him shutting up for a decade or five.

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