Much hushed banal observations from pols about the unfortunate events in Liverpool as is standard nowadays, including tributes to the ‘amazing bravery’ from our police and emergency services. I’ve no doubt that these guys display this quality day in, day out, but was there anything over and beyond shown yesterday?
To get to so many injured people in a busy crowd and touch wood not have any fatalities is over and above what would be expected on a normal day surely, yes.
The large number of police immediately on the scene and running towards the danger when it was very unclear that it wasn't a terrorist incident, fair play to them.
The senior coppers managing the event so poorly that a car managed to get inside the cordon when there were hundreds of thousands of people still to disperse, not so much. Suspect the 'robust traffic management plan' will come under some scrutiny, but the police normally investigate themselves and discover that everything is fine, so big fat early retirement pensions for them.
Nonsense. That’s not how it works.
The stress of being investigated will put the SMT* people involved into sick leave. They will carry on accruing pension.
35 seconds before the report comes out, they take early retirement due to stress. Which shuts down the investigation. Permanently.
Then they get a job at another Police Farce, at a higher rank, or a consultancy.
Defenestration in Russia: Senior Inspector for the Khabarovsk region government fell out of an 8-story window at work and died, 15 minutes before he was to meet with the governor. https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1927157880160969083
For all that I’m glad to see polls like this, it’s still very early days. Governments in their first year are often unpopular. Labour should be thanking their lucky stars that they won a majority with fewer than 10m votes rather than worrying about losing it
Ever since Starner's "island of strangers" speech , reform are sticking around 30. Kemomight even have lost a few votes too from it too, as a leader from a minority. Labour need to have a rethink.
Interesting, when it's coupled with this;
We're seeing a pattern in local elections / by-elections where Tories will vote tactically for Reform (like Runcorn) but Reform voters won't vote tactically for the Tories (like here where they've just completely split the right vote).
Makes Labour very vulnerable in the Red Wall, but completely stuffs the Conservatives in both Nice Britain and Boring Britain.
I thought this was obvious - reform voters are non of the above voters - now Bozo got them in 2019 because of Brexit but that’s been and gone, people are not better off and they won’t make the same mistake again
Leave/Remain is still a key divide imo. I'm happy to be proved wrong by relevant polling (if there is any?) but I bet Reform supporters today who voted on the EU in 2016 were overwhelmingly Leave. By this I mean 90% plus.
On the latest YouGov, Reform have 52% of Leave voters and 8% of Remainers.
So I'm close but no cigar on the Leave bias. It isn't 90% plus of REF supporters it's more like high 80s. Still, big picture, it is that Leave pool they are fishing in. Luckily for them it's a large one. About half the country.
Also struck by how much more damage REF are doing to the Cons than to LAB. From those figures it's LD and Green who are picking up LAB switchers. REF aren't attracting many at all.
Based on OGH's old theory that it is the leader's ratings that matter then we are looking at two terms.
Boris was ahead of Starmer by double digits after Labour took the lead in late 2021 and was ahead during parts of early 2022 long after partygate had kicked in. Truss led Starmer early in her lengthy term as did Sunak briefly despite being 20 points plus down in the polls
Defenestration in Russia: Senior Inspector for the Khabarovsk region government fell out of an 8-story window at work and died, 15 minutes before he was to meet with the governor. https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1927157880160969083
This shows what is wrong with Barty's plan to relax building standards here.
Based on OGH's old theory that it is the leader's ratings that matter then we are looking at two terms.
I wouldn't dignify it with the name of "theory" - it was an evidence-free assertion that survived God knows how many disproofs. Voting intention is the best predictor for voting, unsurprisingly, and voting intention just before the election is the only statistically valid one.
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
Looks like he's found God, for which he's given himself a big tick. He'd better hope ol' Yahweh doesn't find him.
Is Tommeh antisemitic? His type tend to be quite pro Israel
Genuine Q, I have no idea
Hates Jews but hates Muslims more. Is there a special word for that?
Based on OGH's old theory that it is the leader's ratings that matter then we are looking at two terms.
Boris was ahead of Starmer by double digits after Labour took the lead in late 2021 and was ahead during parts of early 2022 long after partygate had kicked in. Truss led Starmer early in her lengthy term as did Sunak briefly despite being 20 points plus down in the polls
It's favourability ratings that count, and that's where Starmer lags Farage.
My main reflection is that, for perhaps the first time in my political lifetime, a centrist En Marche-esque new party could sweep the board if they had a competent, charismatic leader. Perhaps one of the centrist Tories that Johnson ejected?
Why? 1. Dissatisfaction with our current crop of leaders including Farage is quite remarkable, as this polling shows. Given OGH's sage advice to consider leader ratings, it seems clear that Reform's current popularity is ephemeral - just a NOTA expression of frustration. I suspect that is why Starmer is still preferred PM despite his flaws. 2. I've always thought that a new party would be hindered by a lack of ground game, but Reform's performance in the local elections put paid to that idea. If the new party was social media-savvy they'd be fine imo. 3. Labour's current leadership without vision has, I think, rolled the pitch for another party to present a vision that doesn't duck all the hard questions, but that is sold with a bit more charisma and that doesn't try to solve the country's woes on the backs of the poorest. I think the country is more ready than it has been for a while to hear the message: "things are tough, we have a plan, but we'll need to tolerate some short-term pain to get there". Perhaps the slogan: "This time, we're actually all in this together."
This party would (sadly) have to be quite hard-line on immigration but, if it was, it would burst Reform's bubble in an instant imo. If it was simultaneously economically competent and not cruel I think it could generate real enthusiasm.
What's interesting to me is that I still think the party I describe could be the current Labour party, just with a few decent strategists to prevent the own goals the party seems to be making at the moment.
Especially since FPTP is as much about the motivation of the antis as the pros. If the anti vote coalesces around a single opponent, there's not that much that the leading candidate can do. Marmite only wins when it's up against Marmite-with-added-botulism.
My main reflection is that, for perhaps the first time in my political lifetime, a centrist En Marche-esque new party could sweep the board if they had a competent, charismatic leader. Perhaps one of the centrist Tories that Johnson ejected?
Why? 1. Dissatisfaction with our current crop of leaders including Farage is quite remarkable, as this polling shows. Given OGH's sage advice to consider leader ratings, it seems clear that Reform's current popularity is ephemeral - just a NOTA expression of frustration. I suspect that is why Starmer is still preferred PM despite his flaws. 2. I've always thought that a new party would be hindered by a lack of ground game, but Reform's performance in the local elections put paid to that idea. If the new party was social media-savvy they'd be fine imo. 3. Labour's current leadership without vision has, I think, rolled the pitch for another party to present a vision that doesn't duck all the hard questions, but that is sold with a bit more charisma and that doesn't try to solve the country's woes on the backs of the poorest. I think the country is more ready than it has been for a while to hear the message: "things are tough, we have a plan, but we'll need to tolerate some short-term pain to get there". Perhaps the slogan: "This time, we're actually all in this together."
This party would (sadly) have to be quite hard-line on immigration but, if it was, it would burst Reform's bubble in an instant imo. If it was simultaneously economically competent and not cruel I think it could generate real enthusiasm.
What's interesting to me is that I still think the party I describe could be the current Labour party, just with a few decent strategists to prevent the own goals the party seems to be making at the moment.
Can't be Labour. Any leadership change would be way too far left. For all the adoration Rayner gets here I'd never vote for her.
Can't be the Conservatives. Combination of lingering memories of poor governance plus lack of talent (they'd do well to have Hunt as leader but I don't think he wants it).
Could be the Lib Dems, but only in theory. Too pro-EU, too comfortable being leafy liberals to sully themselves appealing more broadly.
For all that I’m glad to see polls like this, it’s still very early days. Governments in their first year are often unpopular. Labour should be thanking their lucky stars that they won a majority with fewer than 10m votes rather than worrying about losing it
But first year unpopularity should be a sign of painful radical reform which will pay off in the long term, as it was, rightly or wrongly, in the Thatcher years and in the coalition government.
Instead, Starmer and Reeves have managed to become spectacularly unpopular by making terrible decisions which nobody seriously thinks will pay off in the long term, in particular on the economy, for instance kicking business in the nuts with huge tax rises while gaslighting about being pro-growth.
So I don't think Labour can take any comfort from the frequent first year unpopularity of other governments.
Based on OGH's old theory that it is the leader's ratings that matter then we are looking at two terms.
Boris was ahead of Starmer by double digits after Labour took the lead in late 2021 and was ahead during parts of early 2022 long after partygate had kicked in. Truss led Starmer early in her lengthy term as did Sunak briefly despite being 20 points plus down in the polls
It's favourability ratings that count, and that's where Starmer lags Farage.
So here, for example, Reform have better ratings than Labour, and Farage is better rated than Starmer (32 to 23%).
My main reflection is that, for perhaps the first time in my political lifetime, a centrist En Marche-esque new party could sweep the board if they had a competent, charismatic leader. Perhaps one of the centrist Tories that Johnson ejected?
Why? 1. Dissatisfaction with our current crop of leaders including Farage is quite remarkable, as this polling shows. Given OGH's sage advice to consider leader ratings, it seems clear that Reform's current popularity is ephemeral - just a NOTA expression of frustration. I suspect that is why Starmer is still preferred PM despite his flaws. 2. I've always thought that a new party would be hindered by a lack of ground game, but Reform's performance in the local elections put paid to that idea. If the new party was social media-savvy they'd be fine imo. 3. Labour's current leadership without vision has, I think, rolled the pitch for another party to present a vision that doesn't duck all the hard questions, but that is sold with a bit more charisma and that doesn't try to solve the country's woes on the backs of the poorest. I think the country is more ready than it has been for a while to hear the message: "things are tough, we have a plan, but we'll need to tolerate some short-term pain to get there". Perhaps the slogan: "This time, we're actually all in this together."
This party would (sadly) have to be quite hard-line on immigration but, if it was, it would burst Reform's bubble in an instant imo. If it was simultaneously economically competent and not cruel I think it could generate real enthusiasm.
What's interesting to me is that I still think the party I describe could be the current Labour party, just with a few decent strategists to prevent the own goals the party seems to be making at the moment.
Can't be Labour. Any leadership change would be way too far left. For all the adoration Rayner gets here I'd never vote for her.
Can't be the Conservatives. Combination of lingering memories of poor governance plus lack of talent (they'd do well to have Hunt as leader but I don't think he wants it).
Could be the Lib Dems, but only in theory. Too pro-EU, too comfortable being leafy liberals to sully themselves appealing more broadly.
Agreed on all three - Labour are probably closest but have shot their bolt I think - as you say it would probably need a leader change and they're unlikely to get the new leader that could do all of the above.
I also think there is a (slightly immature) desire for the shiny new thing rather than persisting with the baggage of the old. IMO this is one of Farage's strengths - whilst political nerds know Reform is basically UKIP, their brand isn't tarnished the way UKIP's is.
Based on OGH's old theory that it is the leader's ratings that matter then we are looking at two terms.
Boris was ahead of Starmer by double digits after Labour took the lead in late 2021 and was ahead during parts of early 2022 long after partygate had kicked in. Truss led Starmer early in her lengthy term as did Sunak briefly despite being 20 points plus down in the polls
It's favourability ratings that count, and that's where Starmer lags Farage.
So here, for example, Reform have better ratings than Labour, and Farage is better rated than Starmer (32 to 23%).
Yep, take that on board entirely. In addition the head to heads for PM are essentially LD/Green/Lab vs Con/Ref with the exception of Davey-Farage where the Tories are completely split down the middle on it
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
Looks like he's found God, for which he's given himself a big tick. He'd better hope ol' Yahweh doesn't find him.
Is Tommeh antisemitic? His type tend to be quite pro Israel
Genuine Q, I have no idea
Hates Jews but hates Muslims more. Is there a special word for that?
My main reflection is that, for perhaps the first time in my political lifetime, a centrist En Marche-esque new party could sweep the board if they had a competent, charismatic leader. Perhaps one of the centrist Tories that Johnson ejected?
Why? 1. Dissatisfaction with our current crop of leaders including Farage is quite remarkable, as this polling shows. Given OGH's sage advice to consider leader ratings, it seems clear that Reform's current popularity is ephemeral - just a NOTA expression of frustration. I suspect that is why Starmer is still preferred PM despite his flaws. 2. I've always thought that a new party would be hindered by a lack of ground game, but Reform's performance in the local elections put paid to that idea. If the new party was social media-savvy they'd be fine imo. 3. Labour's current leadership without vision has, I think, rolled the pitch for another party to present a vision that doesn't duck all the hard questions, but that is sold with a bit more charisma and that doesn't try to solve the country's woes on the backs of the poorest. I think the country is more ready than it has been for a while to hear the message: "things are tough, we have a plan, but we'll need to tolerate some short-term pain to get there". Perhaps the slogan: "This time, we're actually all in this together."
This party would (sadly) have to be quite hard-line on immigration but, if it was, it would burst Reform's bubble in an instant imo. If it was simultaneously economically competent and not cruel I think it could generate real enthusiasm.
What's interesting to me is that I still think the party I describe could be the current Labour party, just with a few decent strategists to prevent the own goals the party seems to be making at the moment.
For all that I’m glad to see polls like this, it’s still very early days. Governments in their first year are often unpopular. Labour should be thanking their lucky stars that they won a majority with fewer than 10m votes rather than worrying about losing it
But first year unpopularity should be a sign of painful radical reform which will pay off in the long term, as it was, rightly or wrongly, in the Thatcher years and in the coalition government.
Instead, Starmer and Reeves have managed to become spectacularly unpopular by making terrible decisions which nobody seriously thinks will pay off in the long term, in particular on the economy, for instance kicking business in the nuts with huge tax rises while gaslighting about being pro-growth.
So I don't think Labour can take any comfort from the frequent first year unpopularity of other governments.
Fair enough. I thought they were making unpopular decisions that they thought would pay off in the long term, for instance the change in benefits, and the WFA
My main reflection is that, for perhaps the first time in my political lifetime, a centrist En Marche-esque new party could sweep the board if they had a competent, charismatic leader. Perhaps one of the centrist Tories that Johnson ejected?
Why? 1. Dissatisfaction with our current crop of leaders including Farage is quite remarkable, as this polling shows. Given OGH's sage advice to consider leader ratings, it seems clear that Reform's current popularity is ephemeral - just a NOTA expression of frustration. I suspect that is why Starmer is still preferred PM despite his flaws. 2. I've always thought that a new party would be hindered by a lack of ground game, but Reform's performance in the local elections put paid to that idea. If the new party was social media-savvy they'd be fine imo. 3. Labour's current leadership without vision has, I think, rolled the pitch for another party to present a vision that doesn't duck all the hard questions, but that is sold with a bit more charisma and that doesn't try to solve the country's woes on the backs of the poorest. I think the country is more ready than it has been for a while to hear the message: "things are tough, we have a plan, but we'll need to tolerate some short-term pain to get there". Perhaps the slogan: "This time, we're actually all in this together."
This party would (sadly) have to be quite hard-line on immigration but, if it was, it would burst Reform's bubble in an instant imo. If it was simultaneously economically competent and not cruel I think it could generate real enthusiasm.
What's interesting to me is that I still think the party I describe could be the current Labour party, just with a few decent strategists to prevent the own goals the party seems to be making at the moment.
Can't be Labour. Any leadership change would be way too far left. For all the adoration Rayner gets here I'd never vote for her.
Can't be the Conservatives. Combination of lingering memories of poor governance plus lack of talent (they'd do well to have Hunt as leader but I don't think he wants it).
Could be the Lib Dems, but only in theory. Too pro-EU, too comfortable being leafy liberals to sully themselves appealing more broadly.
It requires a red wall friendly set up that doesn't startle the horses in the leafy shires. A strivers party. The LDs have some serious potential in the South but they have zero chance currently of any sort of serious momentum in most of the Midlands and North and they are simply crowded out in Wales and Scotland. They'd probably need to arrange a 'mutually important' merger with the Huntites under a new banner and the rest of the Tories would likely fold into Farages loving embrace
Based on OGH's old theory that it is the leader's ratings that matter then we are looking at two terms.
Boris was ahead of Starmer by double digits after Labour took the lead in late 2021 and was ahead during parts of early 2022 long after partygate had kicked in. Truss led Starmer early in her lengthy term as did Sunak briefly despite being 20 points plus down in the polls
It's favourability ratings that count, and that's where Starmer lags Farage.
So here, for example, Reform have better ratings than Labour, and Farage is better rated than Starmer (32 to 23%).
Yep, take that on board entirely. In addition the head to heads for PM are essentially LD/Green/Lab vs Con/Ref with the exception of Davey-Farage where the Tories are completely split down the middle on it
Which is why the Conservatives are in so much trouble. Not only are they in a losing position now, whichever way they move risks making things worse.
(It's the sort of polling where it would be useful to have some sort of intensity scale. Who is significantly grumpy with politician X, and who absolutely detests them?)
This is weird - the police don't seem to have mentioned the nationality or ethnicity of the person charged with attempted murder of a police officer on this occasion. Odd.
I have just come in and Farage is giving a news conference on BBC2. Don't know why. However he is very good. Very professional. Have to admit even though I don't like his policies.
I’m not convinced that Farage is hated enough for people to come out and vote against him.
About 60% have an unfavourable opinion of Farage, including about half of Tory supporters. I think many will come out and vote against him. Although his popularity has grown a bit, he is still deeply unpopular. His overall favourability equates quite closely to Reform's poll share.
I have just come in and Farage is giving a news conference on BBC2. Don't know why. However he is very good. Very professional. Have to admit even though I don't like his policies.
The IMF recommendation came in its annual health check of the British economy, in which it nudged up projected economic growth to 1.2 per cent in 2025 from 1.1 per cent. Before Donald Trump’s tariffs, the IMF had predicted that the economy would expand by 1.6 per cent this year.
I have just come in and Farage is giving a news conference on BBC2. Don't know why. However he is very good. Very professional. Have to admit even though I don't like his policies.
He is a formidable campaigner and is saying things that are very popular
I fear he is not only leading the political narrative but may well be winning the argument
Starmer, Badenoch and yes, Davey, have a real fight on their hands
Farage though has basically said that the next election is Labour vs Reform. We knew that but I guess it now makes the question obvious, who do you hate less?
Based on OGH's old theory that it is the leader's ratings that matter then we are looking at two terms.
Boris was ahead of Starmer by double digits after Labour took the lead in late 2021 and was ahead during parts of early 2022 long after partygate had kicked in. Truss led Starmer early in her lengthy term as did Sunak briefly despite being 20 points plus down in the polls
It's favourability ratings that count, and that's where Starmer lags Farage.
So here, for example, Reform have better ratings than Labour, and Farage is better rated than Starmer (32 to 23%).
Yep, take that on board entirely. In addition the head to heads for PM are essentially LD/Green/Lab vs Con/Ref with the exception of Davey-Farage where the Tories are completely split down the middle on it
Which is why the Conservatives are in so much trouble. Not only are they in a losing position now, whichever way they move risks making things worse.
(It's the sort of polling where it would be useful to have some sort of intensity scale. Who is significantly grumpy with politician X, and who absolutely detests them?)
Farage is Marmite Starmer and Johnson are Marmite that's gone off Davey is mostly harmless and people seem to like his antics Badenoch is anti Marmite- people don't want to love or hate her. Which is much worse of course
I have just come in and Farage is giving a news conference on BBC2. Don't know why. However he is very good. Very professional. Have to admit even though I don't like his policies.
It’s the Fukker’s conference.
Mein Fuhrer seems to get a free pass on Sky/BBC nowadays.
Farage though has basically said that the next election is Labour vs Reform. We knew that but I guess it now makes the question obvious, who do you hate less?
Why hate either rather than win the argument
Listening to Farage just now all the parties have a real battle on their hands
Worth noting that literally every other leader is preferred to Nigel Farage as PM. This could become quite important if/when a general election approaches with polling suggesting Farage has a real shot at being PM
Farage refusing to commit to the triple lock is about the only sensible thing he’s said.
That's an interesting approach from Nigel. In my experience, the supposed persecution of pensioners is a huge motivation amongst elderly Reform supporters. Nigel must have calculated that he can afford to shed a few or it won't really register.
Farage though has basically said that the next election is Labour vs Reform. We knew that but I guess it now makes the question obvious, who do you hate less?
Risky. The electorate will decide who it's between, not Nigel. There is a not a significant contrarian streak in voters who do not like being told you have no choice but this choice.
Also, Labour are almost within MoE of both Con and LD, they could easily finish fourth at a GE. Wales or Scotland might prove that next year if they decline further over the next 12 months.
These figures are 'interesting' to say the least and suggest Farage/Reform not as popular as simple poll lead, Kemi not as dreadful as commentary (beats Farage, closer to Starmer) and, above all, some serious upside potential for Lib Dems
This is weird - the police don't seem to have mentioned the nationality or ethnicity of the person charged with attempted murder of a police officer on this occasion. Odd.
Simranjit Kajla, 28, has now been charged with attempted murder, the force confirmed on Tuesday.
He has also been charged with causing serious injury by dangerous driving, driving whilst disqualified and using a motor vehicle on a road without insurance. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clynkzqw3nwo
Driving without insurance as well as attempted murder! WAC.
Worth noting that literally every other leader is preferred to Nigel Farage as PM. This could become quite important if/when a general election approaches with polling suggesting Farage has a real shot at being PM
These figures are 'interesting' to say the least and suggest Farage/Reform not as popular as simple poll lead, Kemi not as dreadful as commentary (beats Farage, closer to Starmer) and, above all, some serious upside potential for Lib Dems
I’m not convinced.
Me either, but it's at least the kernel of a conversation A ranked list of all of them together would add a little more context
Worth noting that literally every other leader is preferred to Nigel Farage as PM. This could become quite important if/when a general election approaches with polling suggesting Farage has a real shot at being PM
These figures are 'interesting' to say the least and suggest Farage/Reform not as popular as simple poll lead, Kemi not as dreadful as commentary (beats Farage, closer to Starmer) and, above all, some serious upside potential for Lib Dems
I’m not convinced.
Me either, but it's at least the kernel of a conversation A ranked list of all of them together would add a little more context
Rob Ford opines it’s because outside of elections, voters are answering “do you like the government” versus in an election “who do you want to form the government”.
I saw Mr Blair say something very similar in a speech a few years ago.
This is weird - the police don't seem to have mentioned the nationality or ethnicity of the person charged with attempted murder of a police officer on this occasion. Odd.
Simranjit Kajla, 28, has now been charged with attempted murder, the force confirmed on Tuesday.
He has also been charged with causing serious injury by dangerous driving, driving whilst disqualified and using a motor vehicle on a road without insurance. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clynkzqw3nwo
Driving without insurance as well as attempted murder! WAC.
I was in Stoke Poges last Thursday, having never heard of it last Tuesday... a lucky escape!
I have just come in and Farage is giving a news conference on BBC2. Don't know why. However he is very good. Very professional. Have to admit even though I don't like his policies.
Based on OGH's old theory that it is the leader's ratings that matter then we are looking at two terms.
Boris was ahead of Starmer by double digits after Labour took the lead in late 2021 and was ahead during parts of early 2022 long after partygate had kicked in. Truss led Starmer early in her lengthy term as did Sunak briefly despite being 20 points plus down in the polls
It's favourability ratings that count, and that's where Starmer lags Farage.
So here, for example, Reform have better ratings than Labour, and Farage is better rated than Starmer (32 to 23%).
Yep, take that on board entirely. In addition the head to heads for PM are essentially LD/Green/Lab vs Con/Ref with the exception of Davey-Farage where the Tories are completely split down the middle on it
Which is why the Conservatives are in so much trouble. Not only are they in a losing position now, whichever way they move risks making things worse.
(It's the sort of polling where it would be useful to have some sort of intensity scale. Who is significantly grumpy with politician X, and who absolutely detests them?)
Farage is Marmite Starmer and Johnson are Marmite that's gone off Davey is mostly harmless and people seem to like his antics Badenoch is anti Marmite- people don't want to love or hate her. Which is much worse of course
Starmer has never been a Marmite politician. The 'hate' side is confined to a small minority and the 'love' side is missing entirely.
These figures are 'interesting' to say the least and suggest Farage/Reform not as popular as simple poll lead, Kemi not as dreadful as commentary (beats Farage, closer to Starmer) and, above all, some serious upside potential for Lib Dems
I’m not convinced.
Me either, but it's at least the kernel of a conversation A ranked list of all of them together would add a little more context
Rob Ford opines it’s because outside of elections, voters are answering “do you like the government” versus in an election “who do you want to form the government”.
I saw Mr Blair say something very similar in a speech a few years ago.
I’m not convinced though.
Well i think we see that effect somewhat in the word that rhymes with blingcrack and it's why the Con share will likely recover into an election (as well as Labour) - they are both still seem as the major parties in polling with Ref and LD not seen as such by nearly as many. So there will still be some (though not as much as usual by any means) 'which of the big 2 should govern?' Next time. That said, both have fallen so far that that might not be enough to keep one or other in the top 2 on final result - especially if GEs in the 2 nations next year see disaster for them
I have just come in and Farage is giving a news conference on BBC2. Don't know why. However he is very good. Very professional. Have to admit even though I don't like his policies.
There is a certain trend within the policies of the right-wing (?) parties in Europe. Lot of cross over from MAGA/Evangelicals including financing. Here's the 'finishing' school for wanabe's
The Academy’s aim is to train a new generation of cultural warriors—modern day gladiators who are formed with the intellectual training and the conceptual tools necessary to defend the Judeo-Christian West against its existential enemies. Over the last ten years, I have been working towards a global strategy for the defence of the West, and this Academy will play a major part in that strategy.
Based on OGH's old theory that it is the leader's ratings that matter then we are looking at two terms.
Boris was ahead of Starmer by double digits after Labour took the lead in late 2021 and was ahead during parts of early 2022 long after partygate had kicked in. Truss led Starmer early in her lengthy term as did Sunak briefly despite being 20 points plus down in the polls
It's favourability ratings that count, and that's where Starmer lags Farage.
So here, for example, Reform have better ratings than Labour, and Farage is better rated than Starmer (32 to 23%).
Yep, take that on board entirely. In addition the head to heads for PM are essentially LD/Green/Lab vs Con/Ref with the exception of Davey-Farage where the Tories are completely split down the middle on it
Which is why the Conservatives are in so much trouble. Not only are they in a losing position now, whichever way they move risks making things worse.
(It's the sort of polling where it would be useful to have some sort of intensity scale. Who is significantly grumpy with politician X, and who absolutely detests them?)
Farage is Marmite Starmer and Johnson are Marmite that's gone off Davey is mostly harmless and people seem to like his antics Badenoch is anti Marmite- people don't want to love or hate her. Which is much worse of course
Starmer has never been a Marmite politician. The 'hate' side is confined to a small minority and the 'love' side is missing entirely.
If Horlicks did a spread..
Actually that sounds as if it would be quite disgusting, so perhaps not.
For all that I’m glad to see polls like this, it’s still very early days. Governments in their first year are often unpopular. Labour should be thanking their lucky stars that they won a majority with fewer than 10m votes rather than worrying about losing it
But first year unpopularity should be a sign of painful radical reform which will pay off in the long term, as it was, rightly or wrongly, in the Thatcher years and in the coalition government.
Instead, Starmer and Reeves have managed to become spectacularly unpopular by making terrible decisions which nobody seriously thinks will pay off in the long term, in particular on the economy, for instance kicking business in the nuts with huge tax rises while gaslighting about being pro-growth.
So I don't think Labour can take any comfort from the frequent first year unpopularity of other governments.
Fair enough. I thought they were making unpopular decisions that they thought would pay off in the long term, for instance the change in benefits, and the WFA
No I think those were short-term fudges to cover a fiscal shortfall caused by their shovelling of money to their public sector union paymasters and crank causes like billions in climate aid.
Not designed to pay off in the long run at all by boosting economic growth or whatever. Or if they really thought they would pay off in some way, they have the governmental nous of a ten-year-old.
This is weird - the police don't seem to have mentioned the nationality or ethnicity of the person charged with attempted murder of a police officer on this occasion. Odd.
Simranjit Kajla, 28, has now been charged with attempted murder, the force confirmed on Tuesday.
He has also been charged with causing serious injury by dangerous driving, driving whilst disqualified and using a motor vehicle on a road without insurance. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clynkzqw3nwo
Driving without insurance as well as attempted murder! WAC.
I was in Stoke Poges last Thursday, having never heard of it last Tuesday... a lucky escape!
The curfew tolls the knell of parting day, The lowing herd wind slowly o'er the lea, The ploughman homeward plods his weary way, And leaves the world to darkness and to me.
Based on OGH's old theory that it is the leader's ratings that matter then we are looking at two terms.
Boris was ahead of Starmer by double digits after Labour took the lead in late 2021 and was ahead during parts of early 2022 long after partygate had kicked in. Truss led Starmer early in her lengthy term as did Sunak briefly despite being 20 points plus down in the polls
It's favourability ratings that count, and that's where Starmer lags Farage.
So here, for example, Reform have better ratings than Labour, and Farage is better rated than Starmer (32 to 23%).
Yep, take that on board entirely. In addition the head to heads for PM are essentially LD/Green/Lab vs Con/Ref with the exception of Davey-Farage where the Tories are completely split down the middle on it
Which is why the Conservatives are in so much trouble. Not only are they in a losing position now, whichever way they move risks making things worse.
(It's the sort of polling where it would be useful to have some sort of intensity scale. Who is significantly grumpy with politician X, and who absolutely detests them?)
Farage is Marmite Starmer and Johnson are Marmite that's gone off Davey is mostly harmless and people seem to like his antics Badenoch is anti Marmite- people don't want to love or hate her. Which is much worse of course
Starmer has never been a Marmite politician. The 'hate' side is confined to a small minority and the 'love' side is missing entirely.
Yes, in hindsight that's very true. He is a personality vacuum so I suppose rather than food he's a consomme spoon, utterly pointless cos I'm having the burger
I have just come in and Farage is giving a news conference on BBC2. Don't know why. However he is very good. Very professional. Have to admit even though I don't like his policies.
He is a formidable campaigner and is saying things that are very popular
I fear he is not only leading the political narrative but may well be winning the argument
Starmer, Badenoch and yes, Davey, have a real fight on their hands
Starmer, partly, has also handed him all the argument. Not only Labour, but also the Tories, are falling very similarly since the island of strangers.
BBC picking up on the apparent change in policy from Merseyside police over reporting about suspects. This is the key bit, I think:
"The problem that police forces now face is whether this new approach will lead to confusion in future.
What will a force do for example if the information about the suspect they are holding is unclear?
Even more problematically, what will a force do if they arrest someone in similar circumstances who is a recently arrived migrant or who has a clearly Muslim name?
Last night's rapid move to correct the narrative may not be as straightforward in different circumstances.
Helen King, former assistant commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, said: "There will be times when police can confirm quickly. There are other times when it is unclear. These will always be complex and sensitive decisions.""
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the police will confirm quickly when its white men...
https://x.com/MrHarryCole/status/1927318311164850600?s=19 Given the Tories still lead with over 65s in some of the polling or are at least very close to leading, Farage ditching the triple lock if it happens will be manna from heaven for them
I have just come in and Farage is giving a news conference on BBC2. Don't know why. However he is very good. Very professional. Have to admit even though I don't like his policies.
He is a formidable campaigner and is saying things that are very popular
I fear he is not only leading the political narrative but may well be winning the argument
Starmer, Badenoch and yes, Davey, have a real fight on their hands
Starmer, partly, has also handed him all the argument. Not only Labour, but also the Tories, are falling very similarly since the island of strangers.
Absolutely he has and the stupity of it all is you cannot outdo Farage
He has become a pale image of the real thing
Furthermore I believe Starmer has now passed the point of recovery and Labour have some real questions to ask on the direction they have taken
I have just come in and Farage is giving a news conference on BBC2. Don't know why. However he is very good. Very professional. Have to admit even though I don't like his policies.
He is a formidable campaigner and is saying things that are very popular
I fear he is not only leading the political narrative but may well be winning the argument
Starmer, Badenoch and yes, Davey, have a real fight on their hands
Starmer, partly, has also handed him all the argument. Not only Labour, but also the Tories, are falling very similarly since the island of strangers.
It's since May 1 not island of strangers. Reform being seen to win an election is what shifted the polling from broadly 3 way to the current situation
I have just come in and Farage is giving a news conference on BBC2. Don't know why. However he is very good. Very professional. Have to admit even though I don't like his policies.
He is a formidable campaigner and is saying things that are very popular
I fear he is not only leading the political narrative but may well be winning the argument
Starmer, Badenoch and yes, Davey, have a real fight on their hands
Starmer, partly, has also handed him all the argument. Not only Labour, but also the Tories, are falling very similarly since the island of strangers.
I don't think Davey has much of a fight on his hands or none more so than usual.
LibDems voters are almost certainly mainly implacably opposed to the country being run by Farage and Tice I would wager.
BBC picking up on the apparent change in policy from Merseyside police over reporting about suspects. This is the key bit, I think:
"The problem that police forces now face is whether this new approach will lead to confusion in future.
What will a force do for example if the information about the suspect they are holding is unclear?
Even more problematically, what will a force do if they arrest someone in similar circumstances who is a recently arrived migrant or who has a clearly Muslim name?
Last night's rapid move to correct the narrative may not be as straightforward in different circumstances.
Helen King, former assistant commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, said: "There will be times when police can confirm quickly. There are other times when it is unclear. These will always be complex and sensitive decisions.""
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the police will confirm quickly when its white men...
They're such lying fucks. People don't believe them, and they're right to disbelieve
As you say they will do it when it suits - white British male, gammony face, they will release the info probably before the crime is actually committed. Others, not so much
Also... "Only the Conservatives know that you cannot be so flippant with Britain's economy." That's... a brave line to take when your leader was Truss's Trade Secretary and your home affairs spokesman was her Chief Secretary. I suppose they do have reason to know that economic flippancy is a bad idea.
Why have we renamed them that? Do they live in the hospitals?
Often they will be given a room when working nights but the reason for the name change is probably some woke twerps grew up watching Scrubs and House and decided the American term resident is better than junior hospital or Foundation doctor which replaced Houseman which was sexist or some such. Americans use Attending where we say Consultant but probably our version sounds more impressive so expect it to stick.
BBC picking up on the apparent change in policy from Merseyside police over reporting about suspects. This is the key bit, I think:
"The problem that police forces now face is whether this new approach will lead to confusion in future.
What will a force do for example if the information about the suspect they are holding is unclear?
Even more problematically, what will a force do if they arrest someone in similar circumstances who is a recently arrived migrant or who has a clearly Muslim name?
Last night's rapid move to correct the narrative may not be as straightforward in different circumstances.
Helen King, former assistant commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, said: "There will be times when police can confirm quickly. There are other times when it is unclear. These will always be complex and sensitive decisions.""
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the police will confirm quickly when its white men...
That said, the police have actually made things harder for themselves because, from now on, if they are hesitant about releasing a name/ethnicity then people will jump even quicker to the most inflammatory conclusion....
BBC picking up on the apparent change in policy from Merseyside police over reporting about suspects. This is the key bit, I think:
"The problem that police forces now face is whether this new approach will lead to confusion in future.
What will a force do for example if the information about the suspect they are holding is unclear?
Even more problematically, what will a force do if they arrest someone in similar circumstances who is a recently arrived migrant or who has a clearly Muslim name?
Last night's rapid move to correct the narrative may not be as straightforward in different circumstances.
Helen King, former assistant commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, said: "There will be times when police can confirm quickly. There are other times when it is unclear. These will always be complex and sensitive decisions.""
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the police will confirm quickly when its white men...
It's obvious why they had to do it. And it's been remarkable the change in language online as a result - "road rage", "he panicked", "scared for his life", "a car hit pedestrians" (rather than "a driver").
You wouldn't phrase it like that for someone slashing people in a pub with a knife, and you certainly wouldn't be calling it road rage if it was a recent small boat Muslim immigrant. Perversely, prejudice against Liverpool fans was the response once the ethnicity was known.
But the statement has rather implied that rioting would be justified if it wasn't a white British man. That's why I'm uneasy with it.
Based on OGH's old theory that it is the leader's ratings that matter then we are looking at two terms.
Boris was ahead of Starmer by double digits after Labour took the lead in late 2021 and was ahead during parts of early 2022 long after partygate had kicked in. Truss led Starmer early in her lengthy term as did Sunak briefly despite being 20 points plus down in the polls
It's favourability ratings that count, and that's where Starmer lags Farage.
So here, for example, Reform have better ratings than Labour, and Farage is better rated than Starmer (32 to 23%).
Yep, take that on board entirely. In addition the head to heads for PM are essentially LD/Green/Lab vs Con/Ref with the exception of Davey-Farage where the Tories are completely split down the middle on it
Which is why the Conservatives are in so much trouble. Not only are they in a losing position now, whichever way they move risks making things worse.
(It's the sort of polling where it would be useful to have some sort of intensity scale. Who is significantly grumpy with politician X, and who absolutely detests them?)
Farage is Marmite Starmer and Johnson are Marmite that's gone off Davey is mostly harmless and people seem to like his antics Badenoch is anti Marmite- people don't want to love or hate her. Which is much worse of course
Starmer has never been a Marmite politician. The 'hate' side is confined to a small minority and the 'love' side is missing entirely.
Yes, in hindsight that's very true. He is a personality vacuum so I suppose rather than food he's a consomme spoon, utterly pointless cos I'm having the burger
Well, like I keep saying, he was good on Desert Island Discs. My sense is he has as much personality as most people but isn't comfortable with parading it in public. What's often described as being 'authentic' he would see as being tacky and unprofessional.
Why have we renamed them that? Do they live in the hospitals?
Often they will be given a room when working nights but the reason for the name change is probably some woke twerps grew up watching Scrubs and House and decided the American term resident is better than junior hospital or Foundation doctor which replaced Houseman which was sexist or some such. Americans use Attending where we say Consultant but probably our version sounds more impressive so expect it to stick.
I think the use of Junior when the person could have 20 years experience is one reason to drop it.
BBC picking up on the apparent change in policy from Merseyside police over reporting about suspects. This is the key bit, I think:
"The problem that police forces now face is whether this new approach will lead to confusion in future.
What will a force do for example if the information about the suspect they are holding is unclear?
Even more problematically, what will a force do if they arrest someone in similar circumstances who is a recently arrived migrant or who has a clearly Muslim name?
Last night's rapid move to correct the narrative may not be as straightforward in different circumstances.
Helen King, former assistant commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, said: "There will be times when police can confirm quickly. There are other times when it is unclear. These will always be complex and sensitive decisions.""
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the police will confirm quickly when its white men...
They're such lying fucks. People don't believe them, and they're right to disbelieve
As you say they will do it when it suits - white British male, gammony face, they will release the info probably before the crime is actually committed. Others, not so much
I’ve already heard plenty of “futureproofing” from politicians etc today where they have been saying that of course they won’t always be able to announce the ethnicity of a suspect in future for various “operational reasons”.
So if it’s a white man there will not be any operational reasons to keep that quiet - which sort of causes the situation where whenever they don’t announce the race of a suspect then everyone will assume they are not white males and so the worst of society will use that to stir things up.
Farage refusing to commit to the triple lock is about the only sensible thing he’s said.
So you can have sweeties now (winter fuel allowance) but longer term we will leave you in poverty. It’s not a good look
It won't leave current pensioners in poverty- or at least, no more than at the moment. (And we are probably getting close to the point where the triple lock has done its necessary job of tickling the basic state pension up to a level where it doesn't need a means-tested topup, so it's worth normal people saving for retirement. We do need to work out where that point is, and what comes next.)
And by the time the basic pension has become hopelessly stingy again, current pensioners will have gone to that place where the only triple lock is the one opened by St Peter's keys.
https://x.com/MrHarryCole/status/1927318311164850600?s=19 Given the Tories still lead with over 65s in some of the polling or are at least very close to leading, Farage ditching the triple lock if it happens will be manna from heaven for them
Farage ditching the two child cap might be similar good news for Labour. Lots of polling to suggest keeping it is a very popular policy, and I'd assume that's why there's debate in Labour about whether it's "politically" a good idea to dump it.
Farage's intervention might help Labour make up their minds to get rid of it.
Based on OGH's old theory that it is the leader's ratings that matter then we are looking at two terms.
Boris was ahead of Starmer by double digits after Labour took the lead in late 2021 and was ahead during parts of early 2022 long after partygate had kicked in. Truss led Starmer early in her lengthy term as did Sunak briefly despite being 20 points plus down in the polls
It's favourability ratings that count, and that's where Starmer lags Farage.
So here, for example, Reform have better ratings than Labour, and Farage is better rated than Starmer (32 to 23%).
Yep, take that on board entirely. In addition the head to heads for PM are essentially LD/Green/Lab vs Con/Ref with the exception of Davey-Farage where the Tories are completely split down the middle on it
Which is why the Conservatives are in so much trouble. Not only are they in a losing position now, whichever way they move risks making things worse.
(It's the sort of polling where it would be useful to have some sort of intensity scale. Who is significantly grumpy with politician X, and who absolutely detests them?)
Farage is Marmite Starmer and Johnson are Marmite that's gone off Davey is mostly harmless and people seem to like his antics Badenoch is anti Marmite- people don't want to love or hate her. Which is much worse of course
Starmer has never been a Marmite politician. The 'hate' side is confined to a small minority and the 'love' side is missing entirely.
If Horlicks did a spread..
Actually that sounds as if it would be quite disgusting, so perhaps not.
Well people seem to think he is making a right old horlicks.
BBC picking up on the apparent change in policy from Merseyside police over reporting about suspects. This is the key bit, I think:
"The problem that police forces now face is whether this new approach will lead to confusion in future.
What will a force do for example if the information about the suspect they are holding is unclear?
Even more problematically, what will a force do if they arrest someone in similar circumstances who is a recently arrived migrant or who has a clearly Muslim name?
Last night's rapid move to correct the narrative may not be as straightforward in different circumstances.
Helen King, former assistant commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, said: "There will be times when police can confirm quickly. There are other times when it is unclear. These will always be complex and sensitive decisions.""
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the police will confirm quickly when its white men...
They're such lying fucks. People don't believe them, and they're right to disbelieve
As you say they will do it when it suits - white British male, gammony face, they will release the info probably before the crime is actually committed. Others, not so much
I’ve already heard plenty of “futureproofing” from politicians etc today where they have been saying that of course they won’t always be able to announce the ethnicity of a suspect in future for various “operational reasons”.
So if it’s a white man there will not be any operational reasons to keep that quiet - which sort of causes the situation where whenever they don’t announce the race of a suspect then everyone will assume they are not white males and so the worst of society will use that to stir things up.
Yes, if this happens - and like you I suspect it will - then the police have just made it all worse
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
Looks like he's found God, for which he's given himself a big tick. He'd better hope ol' Yahweh doesn't find him.
Is Tommeh antisemitic? His type tend to be quite pro Israel
Genuine Q, I have no idea
Just piles in on formenting hate against the current out-group I expect.
His parole annoys me. he was imprisoned for repeatedly breaking an injunction against repeating a libel, a libel that was deliberate harassment he has previous convictions for harassment, including making false allegations he has other previous convictions for violence and fraud and he is so patriotic that he owes 6 figures to HMRC
He is not a prisoner who has shown any evidence that he has been rehabilitated and is unlikely to reoffend, so he should be serving his full sentence inside.
I must have missed you getting your knickers in a twist about the huge numbers of dangerous criminals that have been released early since Sir Slap-on-the-wrist took office.
I see that congratulations are due for Reform for successfully locating the ever-elusive magic money tree. In its absence their fiscal plans would be a load of old bollocks, so it's a good job they've found it.
BBC picking up on the apparent change in policy from Merseyside police over reporting about suspects. This is the key bit, I think:
"The problem that police forces now face is whether this new approach will lead to confusion in future.
What will a force do for example if the information about the suspect they are holding is unclear?
Even more problematically, what will a force do if they arrest someone in similar circumstances who is a recently arrived migrant or who has a clearly Muslim name?
Last night's rapid move to correct the narrative may not be as straightforward in different circumstances.
Helen King, former assistant commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, said: "There will be times when police can confirm quickly. There are other times when it is unclear. These will always be complex and sensitive decisions.""
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the police will confirm quickly when its white men...
They're such lying fucks. People don't believe them, and they're right to disbelieve
As you say they will do it when it suits - white British male, gammony face, they will release the info probably before the crime is actually committed. Others, not so much
I’ve already heard plenty of “futureproofing” from politicians etc today where they have been saying that of course they won’t always be able to announce the ethnicity of a suspect in future for various “operational reasons”.
So if it’s a white man there will not be any operational reasons to keep that quiet - which sort of causes the situation where whenever they don’t announce the race of a suspect then everyone will assume they are not white males and so the worst of society will use that to stir things up.
Back in the day I used to watch rugby special highlights. One thing always made me laugh. If the showed you the conversion of a try or the penalty attempt, you knew it was going over, so then there was no point in showing it...
Its like this - future events where the obvious perpetrator is a white British male will have the information shouted out asap to avoid riots. If its not, then there will be radio silence, with everyone simply assuming they missed the conversion it was an Islamic terrorist.
Its a really tough job and I don't envy them. The world is too full of dickheads (and some may think me banging on about it on PB fits that category) but I think they need to find a consistent approach, and as far as possible give as much information as is known to be true.
Based on OGH's old theory that it is the leader's ratings that matter then we are looking at two terms.
Boris was ahead of Starmer by double digits after Labour took the lead in late 2021 and was ahead during parts of early 2022 long after partygate had kicked in. Truss led Starmer early in her lengthy term as did Sunak briefly despite being 20 points plus down in the polls
It's favourability ratings that count, and that's where Starmer lags Farage.
So here, for example, Reform have better ratings than Labour, and Farage is better rated than Starmer (32 to 23%).
Yep, take that on board entirely. In addition the head to heads for PM are essentially LD/Green/Lab vs Con/Ref with the exception of Davey-Farage where the Tories are completely split down the middle on it
Which is why the Conservatives are in so much trouble. Not only are they in a losing position now, whichever way they move risks making things worse.
(It's the sort of polling where it would be useful to have some sort of intensity scale. Who is significantly grumpy with politician X, and who absolutely detests them?)
Farage is Marmite Starmer and Johnson are Marmite that's gone off Davey is mostly harmless and people seem to like his antics Badenoch is anti Marmite- people don't want to love or hate her. Which is much worse of course
Starmer has never been a Marmite politician. The 'hate' side is confined to a small minority and the 'love' side is missing entirely.
If Horlicks did a spread..
Actually that sounds as if it would be quite disgusting, so perhaps not.
Well people seem to think he is making a right old horlicks.
Farage convincing folk that his brand of brown stuff is Nutella.
BBC picking up on the apparent change in policy from Merseyside police over reporting about suspects. This is the key bit, I think:
"The problem that police forces now face is whether this new approach will lead to confusion in future.
What will a force do for example if the information about the suspect they are holding is unclear?
Even more problematically, what will a force do if they arrest someone in similar circumstances who is a recently arrived migrant or who has a clearly Muslim name?
Last night's rapid move to correct the narrative may not be as straightforward in different circumstances.
Helen King, former assistant commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, said: "There will be times when police can confirm quickly. There are other times when it is unclear. These will always be complex and sensitive decisions.""
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the police will confirm quickly when its white men...
They're such lying fucks. People don't believe them, and they're right to disbelieve
As you say they will do it when it suits - white British male, gammony face, they will release the info probably before the crime is actually committed. Others, not so much
I’ve already heard plenty of “futureproofing” from politicians etc today where they have been saying that of course they won’t always be able to announce the ethnicity of a suspect in future for various “operational reasons”.
So if it’s a white man there will not be any operational reasons to keep that quiet - which sort of causes the situation where whenever they don’t announce the race of a suspect then everyone will assume they are not white males and so the worst of society will use that to stir things up.
Back in the day I used to watch rugby special highlights. One thing always made me laugh. If the showed you the conversion of a try or the penalty attempt, you knew it was going over, so then there was no point in showing it...
Its like this - future events where the obvious perpetrator is a white British male will have the information shouted out asap to avoid riots. If its not, then there will be radio silence, with everyone simply assuming they missed the conversion it was an Islamic terrorist.
Its a really tough job and I don't envy them. The world is too full of dickheads (and some may think me banging on about it on PB fits that category) but I think they need to find a consistent approach, and as far as possible give as much information as is known to be true.
Everyone knows that when they don't release information it isn't going to be a white male, because when it is they announce it pretty quickly.
Comments
The stress of being investigated will put the SMT* people involved into sick leave. They will carry on accruing pension.
35 seconds before the report comes out, they take early retirement due to stress. Which shuts down the investigation. Permanently.
Then they get a job at another Police Farce, at a higher rank, or a consultancy.
*Senior Management Team.
Defenestration in Russia: Senior Inspector for the Khabarovsk region government fell out of an 8-story window at work and died, 15 minutes before he was to meet with the governor.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1927157880160969083
So I'm close but no cigar on the Leave bias. It isn't 90% plus of REF supporters it's more like high 80s. Still, big picture, it is that Leave pool they are fishing in. Luckily for them it's a large one. About half the country.
Also struck by how much more damage REF are doing to the Cons than to LAB. From those figures it's LD and Green who are picking up LAB switchers. REF aren't attracting many at all.
Why?
1. Dissatisfaction with our current crop of leaders including Farage is quite remarkable, as this polling shows. Given OGH's sage advice to consider leader ratings, it seems clear that Reform's current popularity is ephemeral - just a NOTA expression of frustration. I suspect that is why Starmer is still preferred PM despite his flaws.
2. I've always thought that a new party would be hindered by a lack of ground game, but Reform's performance in the local elections put paid to that idea. If the new party was social media-savvy they'd be fine imo.
3. Labour's current leadership without vision has, I think, rolled the pitch for another party to present a vision that doesn't duck all the hard questions, but that is sold with a bit more charisma and that doesn't try to solve the country's woes on the backs of the poorest. I think the country is more ready than it has been for a while to hear the message: "things are tough, we have a plan, but we'll need to tolerate some short-term pain to get there". Perhaps the slogan: "This time, we're actually all in this together."
This party would (sadly) have to be quite hard-line on immigration but, if it was, it would burst Reform's bubble in an instant imo. If it was simultaneously economically competent and not cruel I think it could generate real enthusiasm.
What's interesting to me is that I still think the party I describe could be the current Labour party, just with a few decent strategists to prevent the own goals the party seems to be making at the moment.
Marmite only wins when it's up against Marmite-with-added-botulism.
Can't be the Conservatives. Combination of lingering memories of poor governance plus lack of talent (they'd do well to have Hunt as leader but I don't think he wants it).
Could be the Lib Dems, but only in theory. Too pro-EU, too comfortable being leafy liberals to sully themselves appealing more broadly.
Instead, Starmer and Reeves have managed to become spectacularly unpopular by making terrible decisions which nobody seriously thinks will pay off in the long term, in particular on the economy, for instance kicking business in the nuts with huge tax rises while gaslighting about being pro-growth.
So I don't think Labour can take any comfort from the frequent first year unpopularity of other governments.
I also think there is a (slightly immature) desire for the shiny new thing rather than persisting with the baggage of the old. IMO this is one of Farage's strengths - whilst political nerds know Reform is basically UKIP, their brand isn't tarnished the way UKIP's is.
The LDs have some serious potential in the South but they have zero chance currently of any sort of serious momentum in most of the Midlands and North and they are simply crowded out in Wales and Scotland.
They'd probably need to arrange a 'mutually important' merger with the Huntites under a new banner and the rest of the Tories would likely fold into Farages loving embrace
(It's the sort of polling where it would be useful to have some sort of intensity scale. Who is significantly grumpy with politician X, and who absolutely detests them?)
https://bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clynkzqw3nwo
I think many will come out and vote against him.
Although his popularity has grown a bit, he is still deeply unpopular.
His overall favourability equates quite closely to Reform's poll share.
https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a
But it is all irrelevant if normal people don’t feel it.
I fear he is not only leading the political narrative but may well be winning the argument
Starmer, Badenoch and yes, Davey, have a real fight on their hands
Starmer and Johnson are Marmite that's gone off
Davey is mostly harmless and people seem to like his antics
Badenoch is anti Marmite- people don't want to love or hate her. Which is much worse of course
Ein bloke, Ein Pint, Ein Fuhrer...
Listening to Farage just now all the parties have a real battle on their hands
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yish5EWn9bk
Rob Ford
@robfordmancs.bsky.social
Worth noting that literally every other leader is preferred to Nigel Farage as PM. This could become quite important if/when a general election approaches with polling suggesting Farage has a real shot at being PM
https://bsky.app/profile/robfordmancs.bsky.social/post/3lq5i2bdq3k2u
Also, Labour are almost within MoE of both Con and LD, they could easily finish fourth at a GE. Wales or Scotland might prove that next year if they decline further over the next 12 months.
He has also been charged with causing serious injury by dangerous driving, driving whilst disqualified and using a motor vehicle on a road without insurance.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clynkzqw3nwo
Driving without insurance as well as attempted murder! WAC.
A ranked list of all of them together would add a little more context
Guardian
You can say one thing for him at least, he takes plenty of questions on these occassions.
Long time to go yet. Labour need to pull their finger out before next May. As it stands that will be a bloodbath.
I saw Mr Blair say something very similar in a speech a few years ago.
I’m not convinced though.
"barely speak English" is harsh, but she constructs her sentences in a very clunky way
... and the political correspondent needs a shave. His moustache is creeping into his mouth!
That said, both have fallen so far that that might not be enough to keep one or other in the top 2 on final result - especially if GEs in the 2 nations next year see disaster for them
https://chroniclesmagazine.org/correspondence/steve-bannons-gladiator-school-a-view-from-within/
Actually that sounds as if it would be quite disgusting, so perhaps not.
Not designed to pay off in the long run at all by boosting economic growth or whatever. Or if they really thought they would pay off in some way, they have the governmental nous of a ten-year-old.
The lowing herd wind slowly o'er the lea,
The ploughman homeward plods his weary way,
And leaves the world to darkness and to me.
Furthermore BMG had similar figures of 32 - 22 on the 5th May
And Labour haven't led in a poll since 13th April with yougov at 1%
Well 'extremely' is a stretch but they kicked MiCs ass
https://x.com/conservatives/status/1927324198944342016?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
"The problem that police forces now face is whether this new approach will lead to confusion in future.
What will a force do for example if the information about the suspect they are holding is unclear?
Even more problematically, what will a force do if they arrest someone in similar circumstances who is a recently arrived migrant or who has a clearly Muslim name?
Last night's rapid move to correct the narrative may not be as straightforward in different circumstances.
Helen King, former assistant commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, said: "There will be times when police can confirm quickly. There are other times when it is unclear. These will always be complex and sensitive decisions.""
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the police will confirm quickly when its white men...
Given the Tories still lead with over 65s in some of the polling or are at least very close to leading, Farage ditching the triple lock if it happens will be manna from heaven for them
He has become a pale image of the real thing
Furthermore I believe Starmer has now passed the point of recovery and Labour have some real questions to ask on the direction they have taken
LibDems voters are almost certainly mainly implacably opposed to the country being run by Farage and Tice I would wager.
As you say they will do it when it suits - white British male, gammony face, they will release the info probably before the crime is actually committed. Others, not so much
The only answer from now on is total honesty ASAP
You wouldn't phrase it like that for someone slashing people in a pub with a knife, and you certainly wouldn't be calling it road rage if it was a recent small boat Muslim immigrant. Perversely, prejudice against Liverpool fans was the response once the ethnicity was known.
But the statement has rather implied that rioting would be justified if it wasn't a white British man. That's why I'm uneasy with it.
So if it’s a white man there will not be any operational reasons to keep that quiet - which sort of causes the situation where whenever they don’t announce the race of a suspect then everyone will assume they are not white males and so the worst of society will use that to stir things up.
And by the time the basic pension has become hopelessly stingy again, current pensioners will have gone to that place where the only triple lock is the one opened by St Peter's keys.
Farage's intervention might help Labour make up their minds to get rid of it.
Its like this - future events where the obvious perpetrator is a white British male will have the information shouted out asap to avoid riots. If its not, then there will be radio silence, with everyone simply assuming
they missed the conversionit was an Islamic terrorist.Its a really tough job and I don't envy them. The world is too full of dickheads (and some may think me banging on about it on PB fits that category) but I think they need to find a consistent approach, and as far as possible give as much information as is known to be true.
… he’s calling them 5* hotels
https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1927322769022206258?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q