I saw a production of Marriage of Figaro at the Edinburgh festival last year which tried to do that with opera. I'm still suffering flashbacks.
The recent death of Grigorovich at 98 is a reminder that under socialist realism and its grim successors real ballet of stellar quality survived. And survives. Floreat Bolshoi.
The one partial redeeming feature of the Soviet Communists was the value they placed on great art, music, and literature.
I can't imagine they cared about the cultural life of the proles. I would imagine it was a way of competing with the West (as with their attitude to sport ie doping) and partly to give the nomenklatura the idea they were living a good life
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.
I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.
The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.
HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.
Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.
There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.
Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.
Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number. If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards
Worth keeping an eye on proposed reforms to SEND in education too. That's going to be a real mess because the government's proposals would require legislative changes and they would undoubtedly be controversial.
Whats your take on this @ydoethur ? My high school had a SEND unit bolted onto the school - kids would attend normal classes where they could thanks to additional staff and resources.
My general impression is that schools don't have enough staff and resources to function even with 0 SEND kids. In reality we're much better at diagnosing things like Autism which was largely ignored previously which requires more resources not less.
If we actually resourced schools properly with a generous provision of teaching and support staff, could we remove some of the specialist / emergency SEND spending which all seems to be delivered on a postcode lottery basis?
Yes.
Especially if we dramatically cut class sizes.
But that won't happen. It would be expensive in the short term, whatever the substantial longer term gains, and no politician is willing to spend upfront to make big money later (exhibit A - HS2).
But this is stupid. We have people genuinely saying "we can't afford teachers" but then accepting that we pay *more* to crisis manage the operational issues caused by not having enough teachers. The same in the NHSes, Criminal Justice etc etc.
We're spending - as @BartholomewRoberts rightly points out - record sums whilst simultaneously having desperate no cash crises at the front line. A wholesale rethink is needed which means spending more now to save longer term. Any business would just get on with it, but we're stuck in this absurd situation where "we can't afford to sped lots" prevails as we spend lotsandlots as a consequence.
Could have been over in 30 minutes if they'd batted.
If your team is that bad it's polite to let the others bat first as you need to make an afternoon of it to earn your cucumber sandwiches and sponge cake.
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.
I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.
The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.
HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.
Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.
There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.
Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.
Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number. If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards
Worth keeping an eye on proposed reforms to SEND in education too. That's going to be a real mess because the government's proposals would require legislative changes and they would undoubtedly be controversial.
Whats your take on this @ydoethur ? My high school had a SEND unit bolted onto the school - kids would attend normal classes where they could thanks to additional staff and resources.
My general impression is that schools don't have enough staff and resources to function even with 0 SEND kids. In reality we're much better at diagnosing things like Autism which was largely ignored previously which requires more resources not less.
If we actually resourced schools properly with a generous provision of teaching and support staff, could we remove some of the specialist / emergency SEND spending which all seems to be delivered on a postcode lottery basis?
Yes.
Especially if we dramatically cut class sizes.
But that won't happen. It would be expensive in the short term, whatever the substantial longer term gains, and no politician is willing to spend upfront to make big money later (exhibit A - HS2).
But this is stupid. We have people genuinely saying "we can't afford teachers" but then accepting that we pay *more* to crisis manage the operational issues caused by not having enough teachers. The same in the NHSes, Criminal Justice etc etc.
We're spending - as @BartholomewRoberts rightly points out - record sums whilst simultaneously having desperate no cash crises at the front line. A wholesale rethink is needed which means spending more now to save longer term. Any business would just get on with it, but we're stuck in this absurd situation where "we can't afford to sped lots" prevails as we spend lotsandlots as a consequence.
Are you suggesting that a government policy on education is stupid?
Ridiculous.
Why, you'll be telling me George Best was a drunk next.
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.
I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.
The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.
HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.
Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.
There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.
Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.
Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number. If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards
Worth keeping an eye on proposed reforms to SEND in education too. That's going to be a real mess because the government's proposals would require legislative changes and they would undoubtedly be controversial.
Whats your take on this @ydoethur ? My high school had a SEND unit bolted onto the school - kids would attend normal classes where they could thanks to additional staff and resources.
My general impression is that schools don't have enough staff and resources to function even with 0 SEND kids. In reality we're much better at diagnosing things like Autism which was largely ignored previously which requires more resources not less.
If we actually resourced schools properly with a generous provision of teaching and support staff, could we remove some of the specialist / emergency SEND spending which all seems to be delivered on a postcode lottery basis?
Everything is possible if resourced well enough. But there is no field I can think of which is not wanting massively extra resource, especially the costly ones - NHS, welfare, education, defence, housing.
So 'more resource' is the question, not the answer.
Resource on what is the question. We're spending record sums. But have a crisis due to lack of resources.
Lets take education as an example. Thanks to market reforms we have endless fucking trusts running in many cases a small number of schools. Each trust costs money to run and has staff dedicated to running the trust rather than the actual educational provision. Fragmentation means that supplying schools becomes a minefield - instead of selling supplies to the LEA you're selling to 17 different companies, which means the price goes up.
We had the same nonsense in the ENHS - GPs as managers buying provision and managing contracts. We're spending vast amounts on "choice" whilst bringing the quality of the thing being provided ever lower. Fragmentation costs money. Management costs money. Contracts cost money. Temp staff cost money. We're literally hosepiping cash against the wall, a vast empire of bureaucracy which has little if nothing to do with the actual service being provided.
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.
Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%
It wasn't ex-Remainers who ousted Boris Johnson, or did you miss all those leavers, like I said at the time, Boris Johnson was the first Tory PM in 32 years not to be ousted over Europe.
Secondly the Tory MPs who Iain Martin cites aren't defecting, they will resign as MPs triggering by-elections.
It was mainly ex Remainers behind the 2022 coup plus Cummings acolytes and Rishi and Jarvis
Coup? LOL.
Boris Johnson lied about putting a known sexual predator in a position of authority then got others to lie about it, when the cabinet found out they were furious.
Lest we forget a month earlier Boris Johnson assured the party he had changed and wouldn't lie any more during the vote of confidence.
So his promise to stop lying was... a lie?
Thank goodness he's been replaced by that white Knight of honesty, Sir Starmer.
His pre-election promises not to cut winter fuel allowance or increase national insurance won't immediately be broken then, will they?
Except the Conservatives were pointing out the threat to increase employer's NI before the election;
Whether it's desirable or not is another matter. (Personally, I suspect that making it too cheap to employ staff is part of why we have high employment but so many cruddy low value-added jobs.) But it wasn't a broken promise.
Apart from in a caretaker capacity, how often has a political party removed a leader and then, at some point in the future, re-instated that former leader as the new leader?
I can't recall the Conservatives ever having done it - at least since Peel.
Arthur Henderson was Labour leader on three separate occasions but teo of those were in the early days of the Party before WW1 and the third was, I believe, as a caretaker, after MacDonald and before Lansbury. Vince Cable was only caretaker leader after Sir Menzies Campbell stepped down.
Parties don't bring back leaders - it's not the same as a football club rehiring a former manager though that doesn't often end well.
The only question proponents of a Johnson return need to ask is why?
A possible Why? is this. The Tory hierarchy must know more than we do about the Tory party. Does anyone join? Is there a talent pool coming up? Are there MPs and potential MPs that could be the front bench statemen and women of 10-40 years time of international stature? Are there Tory policy wonks with decent long term ideas and strategies that make sense over the next decades? Are they writing and publishing top quality books and articles? Does the hierarchy know what the Tory party is for? Does the Spectator or Telegraph make coherent sense?
Probably no to all these.
So Boris, as you go crashing down, may be worth a try.
Even with the much vaunted More In Common hypothetical leaders poll, which some cling on like a lifebuoy after a shipwreck, a Conservative Party led by Rishi Sunak would be tied 24-24 with Reform so the much vaunted "Boris" makes a much smaller difference (indeed statistically almost none at all) than some would have you believe.
If you want an ex-leader who really would make a difference, bring back Liz Truss - it wouldn't be a positive difference (9% with More in Common) but it would be a difference. Reform would have a majority of 134 and the Conservatives would have no seats at all - even the Greens would have two.
The Conservatives still have 4,375 councillors and 121 MPs - they are very far from extinct. Local Government reorganisation will reduce these numbers as pro-Conservative District Councils are abolished (the LDs and Labour will be hit as well). They are still the second party - polls mean nothing.
The Conservatives are used to being third in polls - it happened in the 80s quite a bit, didn't stop them winning two elections by landslides. They were even (briefly) third in terms of Councillor numbers in 1995 and 1996 behind the LDs. What they've never been is third in the Commons - that's when it will hit home.
It was a mistake to remove Boris as PM but I don’t see a way back for him now. He lost one section of 2019 Tory support with Partygate, and those who weren’t so bothered by that are likely to be furious with him about the increase in immigration. He’ll be attacked on both fronts by all the other leaders, and I don’t see how he can wriggle out of it. A shame for him that his time as PM coincided with the pandemic, he must feel frustrated, but that’s life
His star ascended through COVID. He claimed he got all the big calls right and his fans agreed. His detractors and neutrals were not so convinced. He built up a hat full of goodwill nonetheless and personally blew it with Partygate and Pincher. Johnson was not the victim but the architect of his dramatic decline.
You forgot a P - Paterson
I wonder if there were polling in it, what the public would think was the reason Boris was ousted? I reckon well over half would think it was cake/party and v few would have heard of Pincher/Patterson
Apart from in a caretaker capacity, how often has a political party removed a leader and then, at some point in the future, re-instated that former leader as the new leader?
I can't recall the Conservatives ever having done it - at least since Peel.
Arthur Henderson was Labour leader on three separate occasions but teo of those were in the early days of the Party before WW1 and the third was, I believe, as a caretaker, after MacDonald and before Lansbury. Vince Cable was only caretaker leader after Sir Menzies Campbell stepped down.
Parties don't bring back leaders - it's not the same as a football club rehiring a former manager though that doesn't often end well.
The only question proponents of a Johnson return need to ask is why?
Apart from in a caretaker capacity, how often has a political party removed a leader and then, at some point in the future, re-instated that former leader as the new leader?
I can't recall the Conservatives ever having done it - at least since Peel.
Arthur Henderson was Labour leader on three separate occasions but teo of those were in the early days of the Party before WW1 and the third was, I believe, as a caretaker, after MacDonald and before Lansbury. Vince Cable was only caretaker leader after Sir Menzies Campbell stepped down.
Parties don't bring back leaders - it's not the same as a football club rehiring a former manager though that doesn't often end well.
The only question proponents of a Johnson return need to ask is why?
Swinney in recent times is the only one I think
Farage!
If we're including those who were not MPs, then Ieuan Wyn Jones had two stints as Plaid leader.
Edit - also of course Dafydd Wigley and Alex Salmond.
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.
Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%
It wasn't ex-Remainers who ousted Boris Johnson, or did you miss all those leavers, like I said at the time, Boris Johnson was the first Tory PM in 32 years not to be ousted over Europe.
Secondly the Tory MPs who Iain Martin cites aren't defecting, they will resign as MPs triggering by-elections.
It was mainly ex Remainers behind the 2022 coup plus Cummings acolytes and Rishi and Jarvis
Coup? LOL.
Boris Johnson lied about putting a known sexual predator in a position of authority then got others to lie about it, when the cabinet found out they were furious.
Lest we forget a month earlier Boris Johnson assured the party he had changed and wouldn't lie any more during the vote of confidence.
So his promise to stop lying was... a lie?
Thank goodness he's been replaced by that white Knight of honesty, Sir Starmer.
His pre-election promises not to cut winter fuel allowance or increase national insurance won't immediately be broken then, will they?
Apart from in a caretaker capacity, how often has a political party removed a leader and then, at some point in the future, re-instated that former leader as the new leader?
I can't recall the Conservatives ever having done it - at least since Peel.
Arthur Henderson was Labour leader on three separate occasions but teo of those were in the early days of the Party before WW1 and the third was, I believe, as a caretaker, after MacDonald and before Lansbury. Vince Cable was only caretaker leader after Sir Menzies Campbell stepped down.
Parties don't bring back leaders - it's not the same as a football club rehiring a former manager though that doesn't often end well.
The only question proponents of a Johnson return need to ask is why?
Bonar Law, 1922. Possibly also Lloyd George 1926.
Macdonald had several stints as Chairman of the Labour Party but that was under rather different rules.
Before that I'm thinking it was Earl Grey in 1829.
Apart from in a caretaker capacity, how often has a political party removed a leader and then, at some point in the future, re-instated that former leader as the new leader?
I can't recall the Conservatives ever having done it - at least since Peel.
Arthur Henderson was Labour leader on three separate occasions but teo of those were in the early days of the Party before WW1 and the third was, I believe, as a caretaker, after MacDonald and before Lansbury. Vince Cable was only caretaker leader after Sir Menzies Campbell stepped down.
Parties don't bring back leaders - it's not the same as a football club rehiring a former manager though that doesn't often end well.
The only question proponents of a Johnson return need to ask is why?
A possible Why? is this. The Tory hierarchy must know more than we do about the Tory party. Does anyone join? Is there a talent pool coming up? Are there MPs and potential MPs that could be the front bench statemen and women of 10-40 years time of international stature? Are there Tory policy wonks with decent long term ideas and strategies that make sense over the next decades? Are they writing and publishing top quality books and articles? Does the hierarchy know what the Tory party is for? Does the Spectator or Telegraph make coherent sense?
Probably no to all these.
So Boris, as you go crashing down, may be worth a try.
Even with the much vaunted More In Common hypothetical leaders poll, which some cling on like a lifebuoy after a shipwreck, a Conservative Party led by Rishi Sunak would be tied 24-24 with Reform so the much vaunted "Boris" makes a much smaller difference (indeed statistically almost none at all) than some would have you believe.
If you want an ex-leader who really would make a difference, bring back Liz Truss - it wouldn't be a positive difference (9% with More in Common) but it would be a difference. Reform would have a majority of 134 and the Conservatives would have no seats at all - even the Greens would have two.
The Conservatives still have 4,375 councillors and 121 MPs - they are very far from extinct. Local Government reorganisation will reduce these numbers as pro-Conservative District Councils are abolished (the LDs and Labour will be hit as well). They are still the second party - polls mean nothing.
The Conservatives are used to being third in polls - it happened in the 80s quite a bit, didn't stop them winning two elections by landslides. They were even (briefly) third in terms of Councillor numbers in 1995 and 1996 behind the LDs. What they've never been is third in the Commons - that's when it will hit home.
Good bit of reasoned analysis, Of course the Tories have a tendency to panicked reactions in the last 35 years, increasingly so into the last 15 years. It's the panicked reactions that costs some of the support they are losing. The LDs, for example, never wet the bed when they were polling 4 or 5%
Apart from in a caretaker capacity, how often has a political party removed a leader and then, at some point in the future, re-instated that former leader as the new leader?
I can't recall the Conservatives ever having done it - at least since Peel.
Arthur Henderson was Labour leader on three separate occasions but teo of those were in the early days of the Party before WW1 and the third was, I believe, as a caretaker, after MacDonald and before Lansbury. Vince Cable was only caretaker leader after Sir Menzies Campbell stepped down.
Parties don't bring back leaders - it's not the same as a football club rehiring a former manager though that doesn't often end well.
The only question proponents of a Johnson return need to ask is why?
A possible Why? is this. The Tory hierarchy must know more than we do about the Tory party. Does anyone join? Is there a talent pool coming up? Are there MPs and potential MPs that could be the front bench statemen and women of 10-40 years time of international stature? Are there Tory policy wonks with decent long term ideas and strategies that make sense over the next decades? Are they writing and publishing top quality books and articles? Does the hierarchy know what the Tory party is for? Does the Spectator or Telegraph make coherent sense?
Probably no to all these.
So Boris, as you go crashing down, may be worth a try.
Even with the much vaunted More In Common hypothetical leaders poll, which some cling on like a lifebuoy after a shipwreck, a Conservative Party led by Rishi Sunak would be tied 24-24 with Reform so the much vaunted "Boris" makes a much smaller difference (indeed statistically almost none at all) than some would have you believe.
If you want an ex-leader who really would make a difference, bring back Liz Truss - it wouldn't be a positive difference (9% with More in Common) but it would be a difference. Reform would have a majority of 134 and the Conservatives would have no seats at all - even the Greens would have two.
The Conservatives still have 4,375 councillors and 121 MPs - they are very far from extinct. Local Government reorganisation will reduce these numbers as pro-Conservative District Councils are abolished (the LDs and Labour will be hit as well). They are still the second party - polls mean nothing.
The Conservatives are used to being third in polls - it happened in the 80s quite a bit, didn't stop them winning two elections by landslides. They were even (briefly) third in terms of Councillor numbers in 1995 and 1996 behind the LDs. What they've never been is third in the Commons - that's when it will hit home.
... The LDs, for example, never wet the bed when they were polling 4 or 5%
Apart from in a caretaker capacity, how often has a political party removed a leader and then, at some point in the future, re-instated that former leader as the new leader?
I can't recall the Conservatives ever having done it - at least since Peel.
Arthur Henderson was Labour leader on three separate occasions but teo of those were in the early days of the Party before WW1 and the third was, I believe, as a caretaker, after MacDonald and before Lansbury. Vince Cable was only caretaker leader after Sir Menzies Campbell stepped down.
Parties don't bring back leaders - it's not the same as a football club rehiring a former manager though that doesn't often end well.
The only question proponents of a Johnson return need to ask is why?
Bonar Law, 1922. Possibly also Lloyd George 1926.
Macdonald had several stints as Chairman of the Labour Party but that was under rather different rules.
Before that I'm thinking it was Earl Grey in 1829.
I don't think you can count Lloyd George as party leader - whatever he was leader of between 1916 and 1922, it wasn't the Liberal Party, which retained Asquith as official leader even when he was out of parliament. So although he did return in a sense, I don't think he had ever been a formal party leader previously. But your knowledge of history is better than mine so I will defer.
In fairness, I doubt the problem for the losers was that the pitch deteriorated so precipitously that it was suddenly unplayable.
They were just a much worse team and, by bowling first, they made more of a day of it.
Well he gave the bowlers a workout and ruined their averages! I'd have developed a nasty case of the yips after one over........sorry skip, you'll have to put Bob on!
Apart from in a caretaker capacity, how often has a political party removed a leader and then, at some point in the future, re-instated that former leader as the new leader?
I can't recall the Conservatives ever having done it - at least since Peel.
Arthur Henderson was Labour leader on three separate occasions but teo of those were in the early days of the Party before WW1 and the third was, I believe, as a caretaker, after MacDonald and before Lansbury. Vince Cable was only caretaker leader after Sir Menzies Campbell stepped down.
Parties don't bring back leaders - it's not the same as a football club rehiring a former manager though that doesn't often end well.
The only question proponents of a Johnson return need to ask is why?
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.
I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.
The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.
HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.
Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.
There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.
Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.
Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number. If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards
Worth keeping an eye on proposed reforms to SEND in education too. That's going to be a real mess because the government's proposals would require legislative changes and they would undoubtedly be controversial.
Whats your take on this @ydoethur ? My high school had a SEND unit bolted onto the school - kids would attend normal classes where they could thanks to additional staff and resources.
My general impression is that schools don't have enough staff and resources to function even with 0 SEND kids. In reality we're much better at diagnosing things like Autism which was largely ignored previously which requires more resources not less.
If we actually resourced schools properly with a generous provision of teaching and support staff, could we remove some of the specialist / emergency SEND spending which all seems to be delivered on a postcode lottery basis?
Yes.
Especially if we dramatically cut class sizes.
But that won't happen. It would be expensive in the short term, whatever the substantial longer term gains, and no politician is willing to spend upfront to make big money later (exhibit A - HS2).
There seem to be loads of SEND kids at my sons school, but is it right the school don’t get the extra money straight away?
For whatever reason, the school is short of money, and the year 1 & 2 classes are going to be merged next school year, to be three classes of thirty combined y1&2 rather than four smaller sized classes by birth year. I wouldn’t want to be the parent of the cleverest kid in y2, I’d feel they might be dragged back.
Apart from in a caretaker capacity, how often has a political party removed a leader and then, at some point in the future, re-instated that former leader as the new leader?
I can't recall the Conservatives ever having done it - at least since Peel.
Arthur Henderson was Labour leader on three separate occasions but teo of those were in the early days of the Party before WW1 and the third was, I believe, as a caretaker, after MacDonald and before Lansbury. Vince Cable was only caretaker leader after Sir Menzies Campbell stepped down.
Parties don't bring back leaders - it's not the same as a football club rehiring a former manager though that doesn't often end well.
The only question proponents of a Johnson return need to ask is why?
Bonar Law, 1922. Possibly also Lloyd George 1926.
Macdonald had several stints as Chairman of the Labour Party but that was under rather different rules.
Before that I'm thinking it was Earl Grey in 1829.
I don't think you can count Lloyd George as party leader - whatever he was leader of between 1916 and 1922, it wasn't the Liberal Party, which retained Asquith as official leader even when he was out of parliament. So although he did return in a sense, I don't think he had ever been a formal party leader previously. But your knowledge of history is better than mine so I will defer.
He was leader of one faction of the Liberals, which had some, but not all, of the NLF on his side. THe issue is that party definitions were rather looser so it's arguable as to who held which role at what point.
I did say it was 'possible.' Personally, I would agree with you but I can see how it might be argued the other way.
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.
I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.
The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.
HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.
Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.
There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.
Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.
Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number. If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards
Worth keeping an eye on proposed reforms to SEND in education too. That's going to be a real mess because the government's proposals would require legislative changes and they would undoubtedly be controversial.
Whats your take on this @ydoethur ? My high school had a SEND unit bolted onto the school - kids would attend normal classes where they could thanks to additional staff and resources.
My general impression is that schools don't have enough staff and resources to function even with 0 SEND kids. In reality we're much better at diagnosing things like Autism which was largely ignored previously which requires more resources not less.
If we actually resourced schools properly with a generous provision of teaching and support staff, could we remove some of the specialist / emergency SEND spending which all seems to be delivered on a postcode lottery basis?
Yes.
Especially if we dramatically cut class sizes.
But that won't happen. It would be expensive in the short term, whatever the substantial longer term gains, and no politician is willing to spend upfront to make big money later (exhibit A - HS2).
There seem to be loads of SEND kids at my sons school, but is it right the school don’t get the extra money straight away?
For whatever reason, the school is short of money, and the year 1 & 2 classes are going to be merged next school year, to be three classes of thirty combined y1&2 rather than four smaller sized classes by birth year. I wouldn’t want to be the parent of the cleverest kid in y2, I’d feel they might be dragged back.
It varies according to many circumstances.
I would say a much bigger problem is that the SEND money is being used to plug very large budgetary gaps elsewhere.
It was a mistake to remove Boris as PM but I don’t see a way back for him now. He lost one section of 2019 Tory support with Partygate, and those who weren’t so bothered by that are likely to be furious with him about the increase in immigration. He’ll be attacked on both fronts by all the other leaders, and I don’t see how he can wriggle out of it. A shame for him that his time as PM coincided with the pandemic, he must feel frustrated, but that’s life
His star ascended through COVID. He claimed he got all the big calls right and his fans agreed. His detractors and neutrals were not so convinced. He built up a hat full of goodwill nonetheless and personally blew it with Partygate and Pincher. Johnson was not the victim but the architect of his dramatic decline.
You forgot a P - Paterson
I wonder if there were polling in it, what the public would think was the reason Boris was ousted? I reckon well over half would think it was cake/party and v few would have heard of Pincher/Patterson
Yeah, and he'd have survived cake if not for the other two issues. If it were simply cake he'd have cut and run on an election and 'put it to the people'
Apart from in a caretaker capacity, how often has a political party removed a leader and then, at some point in the future, re-instated that former leader as the new leader?
I can't recall the Conservatives ever having done it - at least since Peel.
Arthur Henderson was Labour leader on three separate occasions but teo of those were in the early days of the Party before WW1 and the third was, I believe, as a caretaker, after MacDonald and before Lansbury. Vince Cable was only caretaker leader after Sir Menzies Campbell stepped down.
Parties don't bring back leaders - it's not the same as a football club rehiring a former manager though that doesn't often end well.
The only question proponents of a Johnson return need to ask is why?
Bonar Law, 1922. Possibly also Lloyd George 1926.
Macdonald had several stints as Chairman of the Labour Party but that was under rather different rules.
Before that I'm thinking it was Earl Grey in 1829.
Ed Miliband, 2028?
God preserve us! One of the few people that genuinely competes with Boris Johnson in the ludicrous-clown-that-you-cannot-believe-is-a-serious-politician competition
Apart from in a caretaker capacity, how often has a political party removed a leader and then, at some point in the future, re-instated that former leader as the new leader?
I can't recall the Conservatives ever having done it - at least since Peel.
Arthur Henderson was Labour leader on three separate occasions but teo of those were in the early days of the Party before WW1 and the third was, I believe, as a caretaker, after MacDonald and before Lansbury. Vince Cable was only caretaker leader after Sir Menzies Campbell stepped down.
Parties don't bring back leaders - it's not the same as a football club rehiring a former manager though that doesn't often end well.
The only question proponents of a Johnson return need to ask is why?
Bonar Law, 1922. Possibly also Lloyd George 1926.
Macdonald had several stints as Chairman of the Labour Party but that was under rather different rules.
Before that I'm thinking it was Earl Grey in 1829.
Ed Miliband, 2028?
God preserve us! One of the few people that genuinely competes with Boris Johnson in the ludicrous-clown-that-you-cannot-believe-is-a-serious-politician competition
He'll be chasing Net Hero for ever and never make it .
Apart from in a caretaker capacity, how often has a political party removed a leader and then, at some point in the future, re-instated that former leader as the new leader?
I can't recall the Conservatives ever having done it - at least since Peel.
Arthur Henderson was Labour leader on three separate occasions but teo of those were in the early days of the Party before WW1 and the third was, I believe, as a caretaker, after MacDonald and before Lansbury. Vince Cable was only caretaker leader after Sir Menzies Campbell stepped down.
Parties don't bring back leaders - it's not the same as a football club rehiring a former manager though that doesn't often end well.
The only question proponents of a Johnson return need to ask is why?
A possible Why? is this. The Tory hierarchy must know more than we do about the Tory party. Does anyone join? Is there a talent pool coming up? Are there MPs and potential MPs that could be the front bench statemen and women of 10-40 years time of international stature? Are there Tory policy wonks with decent long term ideas and strategies that make sense over the next decades? Are they writing and publishing top quality books and articles? Does the hierarchy know what the Tory party is for? Does the Spectator or Telegraph make coherent sense?
Probably no to all these.
So Boris, as you go crashing down, may be worth a try.
Even with the much vaunted More In Common hypothetical leaders poll, which some cling on like a lifebuoy after a shipwreck, a Conservative Party led by Rishi Sunak would be tied 24-24 with Reform so the much vaunted "Boris" makes a much smaller difference (indeed statistically almost none at all) than some would have you believe.
If you want an ex-leader who really would make a difference, bring back Liz Truss - it wouldn't be a positive difference (9% with More in Common) but it would be a difference. Reform would have a majority of 134 and the Conservatives would have no seats at all - even the Greens would have two.
The Conservatives still have 4,375 councillors and 121 MPs - they are very far from extinct. Local Government reorganisation will reduce these numbers as pro-Conservative District Councils are abolished (the LDs and Labour will be hit as well). They are still the second party - polls mean nothing.
The Conservatives are used to being third in polls - it happened in the 80s quite a bit, didn't stop them winning two elections by landslides. They were even (briefly) third in terms of Councillor numbers in 1995 and 1996 behind the LDs. What they've never been is third in the Commons - that's when it will hit home.
... The LDs, for example, never wet the bed when they were polling 4 or 5%
We did a bit, TBH.
You kept it quiet though! Rather than showing the voters your gross bedsheets and wailing
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
Good. I'm fed up with the Right, the American Right in particularly, tendentiously conveying his rightful incarceration as some sort of political event. We can now all concentrate on the bloke in El Salvador.
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
He’s put on ten pounds, grown a terrible beard, and apparently become a Christian
However he still speaks quite fluently and passionately to camera (whatever you think of him; I think he’s more a fool than a Hitler). Disconcertingly he speaks better to camera than any of the major party leaders bar Farage. Makes you realise how bad they are
He also makes the claim that 167m people have seen his movie. Can that possibly be right?!
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
If Farage isn't clear he has no time for Robinson or his racist views it will be an albatross round his neck.
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
If Farage isn't clear he has no time for Robinson or his racist views it will be an albatross round his neck.
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
Looks like he's found God, for which he's given himself a big tick. He'd better hope ol' Yahweh doesn't find him.
It was a mistake to remove Boris as PM but I don’t see a way back for him now. He lost one section of 2019 Tory support with Partygate, and those who weren’t so bothered by that are likely to be furious with him about the increase in immigration. He’ll be attacked on both fronts by all the other leaders, and I don’t see how he can wriggle out of it. A shame for him that his time as PM coincided with the pandemic, he must feel frustrated, but that’s life
His star ascended through COVID. He claimed he got all the big calls right and his fans agreed. His detractors and neutrals were not so convinced. He built up a hat full of goodwill nonetheless and personally blew it with Partygate and Pincher. Johnson was not the victim but the architect of his dramatic decline.
You forgot a P - Paterson
I wonder if there were polling in it, what the public would think was the reason Boris was ousted? I reckon well over half would think it was cake/party and v few would have heard of Pincher/Patterson
Yeah, and he'd have survived cake if not for the other two issues. If it were simply cake he'd have cut and run on an election and 'put it to the people'
The final satisfaction poll by YouGov for Johnson had was 29 Aug 2022 and he was on -43, although his lowest score was -51 on 17 Jan 2022. That lowest score was before Pincher, but fairly soon after the by-election caused by Patterson's departure. Pincher was the last straw for Tory MPs, but doesn't seem to have shifted public views. The public already didn't like him.
If you look at the graph over time, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating , his polling is on a downhill trajectory from Jun 2021. What happened then? I guess the positive COVID/vaccine news was fading and we had the Downing Street refurbishment row. It was also when the cost of living crises was getting going.
It was a mistake to remove Boris as PM but I don’t see a way back for him now. He lost one section of 2019 Tory support with Partygate, and those who weren’t so bothered by that are likely to be furious with him about the increase in immigration. He’ll be attacked on both fronts by all the other leaders, and I don’t see how he can wriggle out of it. A shame for him that his time as PM coincided with the pandemic, he must feel frustrated, but that’s life
His star ascended through COVID. He claimed he got all the big calls right and his fans agreed. His detractors and neutrals were not so convinced. He built up a hat full of goodwill nonetheless and personally blew it with Partygate and Pincher. Johnson was not the victim but the architect of his dramatic decline.
You forgot a P - Paterson
I wonder if there were polling in it, what the public would think was the reason Boris was ousted? I reckon well over half would think it was cake/party and v few would have heard of Pincher/Patterson
Yeah, and he'd have survived cake if not for the other two issues. If it were simply cake he'd have cut and run on an election and 'put it to the people'
The final satisfaction poll by YouGov for Johnson had was 29 Aug 2022 and he was on -43, although his lowest score was -51 on 17 Jan 2022. That lowest score was before Pincher, but fairly soon after the by-election caused by Patterson's departure. Pincher was the last straw for Tory MPs, but doesn't seem to have shifted public views. The public already didn't like him.
If you look at the graph over time, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating , his polling is on a downhill trajectory from Jun 2021. What happened then? I guess the positive COVID/vaccine news was fading and we had the Downing Street refurbishment row. It was also when the cost of living crises was getting going.
Starmer is -46 now, but he doesn’t seem to be on the brink of being ousted
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
Looks like he's found God, for which he's given himself a big tick. He'd better hope ol' Yahweh doesn't find him.
Is Tommeh antisemitic? His type tend to be quite pro Israel
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
Looks like he's found God, for which he's given himself a big tick. He'd better hope ol' Yahweh doesn't find him.
Probably a shrewd move to get in with the American Right and their big stacks of dollars. His previous mission - defending British secular values - is only marginally more appealing to that crowd than Islam.
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.
I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.
The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.
HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.
Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.
There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.
Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.
Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number. If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards
Worth keeping an eye on proposed reforms to SEND in education too. That's going to be a real mess because the government's proposals would require legislative changes and they would undoubtedly be controversial.
Whats your take on this @ydoethur ? My high school had a SEND unit bolted onto the school - kids would attend normal classes where they could thanks to additional staff and resources.
My general impression is that schools don't have enough staff and resources to function even with 0 SEND kids. In reality we're much better at diagnosing things like Autism which was largely ignored previously which requires more resources not less.
If we actually resourced schools properly with a generous provision of teaching and support staff, could we remove some of the specialist / emergency SEND spending which all seems to be delivered on a postcode lottery basis?
Everything is possible if resourced well enough. But there is no field I can think of which is not wanting massively extra resource, especially the costly ones - NHS, welfare, education, defence, housing.
So 'more resource' is the question, not the answer.
Whatever you give them it will never be enough, or they will say it isn’t.
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
Looks like he's found God, for which he's given himself a big tick. He'd better hope ol' Yahweh doesn't find him.
Is Tommeh antisemitic? His type tend to be quite pro Israel
Genuine Q, I have no idea
Do these kinds of people have that kind of intrinsic racism or political ideology? I get the sense they just get off on hating people, and they'll pick on whatever group suits their purposes best. At the moment that's Muslims but I reckon anti-Semitism is bubbling under the surface, as we occasionally see with the MAGA crowd.
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.
I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.
The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.
HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.
Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.
There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.
Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.
Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number. If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards
Worth keeping an eye on proposed reforms to SEND in education too. That's going to be a real mess because the government's proposals would require legislative changes and they would undoubtedly be controversial.
Whats your take on this @ydoethur ? My high school had a SEND unit bolted onto the school - kids would attend normal classes where they could thanks to additional staff and resources.
My general impression is that schools don't have enough staff and resources to function even with 0 SEND kids. In reality we're much better at diagnosing things like Autism which was largely ignored previously which requires more resources not less.
If we actually resourced schools properly with a generous provision of teaching and support staff, could we remove some of the specialist / emergency SEND spending which all seems to be delivered on a postcode lottery basis?
Yes.
Especially if we dramatically cut class sizes.
But that won't happen. It would be expensive in the short term, whatever the substantial longer term gains, and no politician is willing to spend upfront to make big money later (exhibit A - HS2).
There seem to be loads of SEND kids at my sons school, but is it right the school don’t get the extra money straight away?
For whatever reason, the school is short of money, and the year 1 & 2 classes are going to be merged next school year, to be three classes of thirty combined y1&2 rather than four smaller sized classes by birth year. I wouldn’t want to be the parent of the cleverest kid in y2, I’d feel they might be dragged back.
Worth checking how the school plans to manage it. It can be done well, but it can be done badly as well.
As for why... There's the ongoing baby bust. A decade ago, Havering were talking of expanding our local primary from 60 pupils a year to 90. In the end they didn't, but that would have been a complete white elephant. In inner London, entire schools are closing.
There's also the funding structure, where every individual school/trust has to wash its own face financially. In primary, the numbers only really add up with 30 pupils per class. Four classes of 22 is a lot harder to budget for than 3 of 30; pretty much impossible, I suspect.
To be fair to many Tory MPs, they won't stick around even if Boris doesn't become leader. They will defect to Reform, or they will be defeated by Reform or the LibDems.
Well he did a good job on them first time (as forecast). Perhaps we should encourage them so he can finish the job and the party.
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
Looks like he's found God, for which he's given himself a big tick. He'd better hope ol' Yahweh doesn't find him.
Is Tommeh antisemitic? His type tend to be quite pro Israel
Genuine Q, I have no idea
I wouldn’t have thought so.
I went to a few of Matt Forde’s political party shows circa 2014, and Robinson was one of the guests (I also went to the shows ft Lammy & Jim Murphy). He does speak reasonably well, and if I’m honest I don’t disagree with a lot of what he says. He was a problem with the Islamification of Britain, as do many other people, but he isn’t some kind of white supremacist
Everyone seems to have an opinion on whether films have become "too woke" but what happens when we try to measure it using actual data. Can we see shifts? How do they correlate with outcomes? https://stephenfollows.com/p/measuring-if-movies-are-too-woke
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
Looks like he's found God, for which he's given himself a big tick. He'd better hope ol' Yahweh doesn't find him.
Is Tommeh antisemitic? His type tend to be quite pro Israel
Genuine Q, I have no idea
Wrapped in the white and blue of the Star of David back at a pro Israel demo in 2021.
Could have been over in 30 minutes if they'd batted.
If your team is that bad it's polite to let the others bat first as you need to make an afternoon of it to earn your cucumber sandwiches and sponge cake.
Also in most league cricket you get points for wickets taken and runs scored. So Bowling first, if the opponents run up a huge score but you take a few wickets is actually not the worst outcome, even if you are then rolled over for 2 runs.
Much hushed banal observations from pols about the unfortunate events in Liverpool as is standard nowadays, including tributes to the ‘amazing bravery’ from our police and emergency services. I’ve no doubt that these guys display this quality day in, day out, but was there anything over and beyond shown yesterday?
Aren't the Services those that rush towards death and carnage to provide help, so that the general public can walk away from it in safety? Why would anyone want to do it as it'll not be for the money.
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
Looks like he's found God, for which he's given himself a big tick. He'd better hope ol' Yahweh doesn't find him.
Is Tommeh antisemitic? His type tend to be quite pro Israel
Genuine Q, I have no idea
I wouldn’t have thought so.
I went to a few of Matt Forde’s political party shows circa 2014, and Robinson was one of the guests (I also went to the shows ft Lammy & Jim Murphy). He does speak reasonably well, and if I’m honest I don’t disagree with a lot of what he says. He was a problem with the Islamification of Britain, as do many other people, but he isn’t some kind of white supremacist
He was a member of the British National Party (BNP) and joint vice-chairman of the BNP spin-off, the British Freedom Party (BFP). He's a fascist and a white supremacist.
Just dropping in briefly to thank you all for your immensely kind and touching good wishes and responses to my header. They meant a lot. I was worried that it was too personal and not at all appropriate for this site. But what a lovely bunch you are. Thank you.
When the docs told me they then started (and I'm pretty sure I wasn't listening properly at this point) going on about gardening. Now cancer is bad enough but I suddenly worried:
"Are they telling me to stop gardening?"
Because if anything would have plunged me into a pit of despair that would have.
Then there was talk of wigs.
"Oh Christ! This is really bad!"
But no it was all about avoiding cuts / infections etc / sepsis and so forth and the hair will grow back etc. Phew! Anyway my late mother left me a load of lovely silk Hermes scarves so their time has come.
So picture me in the garden wearing thigh high boots, thick impenetrable gloves like falconers wear and the sort of extravagantly colourful headgear last seen on Camilla Batmanjelly. I shall become a Lake District legend! Or eccentric! (Or possibly star in a very niche website indeed!) A spot on the viewers' gardens section of Gardeners World surely cannot be far behind.
Fortunately following tradition the last month of Mediterranean sunshine ceased the moment the Bank Holiday and half-term started so being warm outside is essential. It's an ill wind etc....
Stay well. I'll be back one day. Just need to reorient myself to this unexpected "adventure".
PS Having Boris back is like returning to an abusive boyfriend who's pretty much destroyed your confidence and isolated you from your real friends and family before you've paid off the money he's cost you and finished the therapy to explain why you fell for the lying scrote in the first place and how to avoid doing it again. Just no.
For all that I’m glad to see polls like this, it’s still very early days. Governments in their first year are often unpopular. Labour should be thanking their lucky stars that they won a majority with fewer than 10m votes rather than worrying about losing it
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
Looks like he's found God, for which he's given himself a big tick. He'd better hope ol' Yahweh doesn't find him.
Is Tommeh antisemitic? His type tend to be quite pro Israel
Genuine Q, I have no idea
Just piles in on formenting hate against the current out-group I expect.
His parole annoys me. he was imprisoned for repeatedly breaking an injunction against repeating a libel, a libel that was deliberate harassment he has previous convictions for harassment, including making false allegations he has other previous convictions for violence and fraud and he is so patriotic that he owes 6 figures to HMRC
He is not a prisoner who has shown any evidence that he has been rehabilitated and is unlikely to reoffend, so he should be serving his full sentence inside.
For all that I’m glad to see polls like this, it’s still very early days. Governments in their first year are often unpopular. Labour should be thanking their lucky stars that they won a majority with fewer than 10m votes rather than worrying about losing it
It was a mistake to remove Boris as PM but I don’t see a way back for him now. He lost one section of 2019 Tory support with Partygate, and those who weren’t so bothered by that are likely to be furious with him about the increase in immigration. He’ll be attacked on both fronts by all the other leaders, and I don’t see how he can wriggle out of it. A shame for him that his time as PM coincided with the pandemic, he must feel frustrated, but that’s life
His star ascended through COVID. He claimed he got all the big calls right and his fans agreed. His detractors and neutrals were not so convinced. He built up a hat full of goodwill nonetheless and personally blew it with Partygate and Pincher. Johnson was not the victim but the architect of his dramatic decline.
You forgot a P - Paterson
I wonder if there were polling in it, what the public would think was the reason Boris was ousted? I reckon well over half would think it was cake/party and v few would have heard of Pincher/Patterson
Yeah, and he'd have survived cake if not for the other two issues. If it were simply cake he'd have cut and run on an election and 'put it to the people'
The final satisfaction poll by YouGov for Johnson had was 29 Aug 2022 and he was on -43, although his lowest score was -51 on 17 Jan 2022. That lowest score was before Pincher, but fairly soon after the by-election caused by Patterson's departure. Pincher was the last straw for Tory MPs, but doesn't seem to have shifted public views. The public already didn't like him.
If you look at the graph over time, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating , his polling is on a downhill trajectory from Jun 2021. What happened then? I guess the positive COVID/vaccine news was fading and we had the Downing Street refurbishment row. It was also when the cost of living crises was getting going.
He might have survived without Pincher. It was a Westminster bubble issue (not the public disaster that Partygate was) but as regards the parliamentary party it finished him off. There were insufficient supportive MPs for him to form a government. This just a year after Hartlepool. Incredible fall.
For all that I’m glad to see polls like this, it’s still very early days. Governments in their first year are often unpopular. Labour should be thanking their lucky stars that they won a majority with fewer than 10m votes rather than worrying about losing it
Ever since Starner's "island of strangers" speech , reform are sticking around 30. Kemomight even have lost a few votes too from it too, as a leader from a minority. Labour need to have a rethink.
Does anyone believe this guff that he’s found God?
An attempt to preapre the ground for a US visa which would otherwise be problematic given his convictions. He's going to need to go on the right wing MAGA shitc-nt circuit to rebuild his shattered finances.
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
Looks like he's found God, for which he's given himself a big tick. He'd better hope ol' Yahweh doesn't find him.
Is Tommeh antisemitic? His type tend to be quite pro Israel
Genuine Q, I have no idea
Hates Jews but hates Muslims more. Is there a special word for that?
I don’t think it is talked about enough that Labour & the Lib Dems were both obliterated in 2019, despite each getting more votes than they did in 2024. Blows my mind
For all that I’m glad to see polls like this, it’s still very early days. Governments in their first year are often unpopular. Labour should be thanking their lucky stars that they won a majority with fewer than 10m votes rather than worrying about losing it
Ever since Starner's "island of strangers" speech , reform are sticking around 30. Kemomight even have lost a few votes too from it too, as a leader from a minority. Labour need to have a rethink.
Interesting, when it's coupled with this;
We're seeing a pattern in local elections / by-elections where Tories will vote tactically for Reform (like Runcorn) but Reform voters won't vote tactically for the Tories (like here where they've just completely split the right vote).
Trump goes to war with the wealthy to shore up Maga base ... But as Republicans prepare their “big, beautiful bill” for tax and spending, which includes $880bn in cuts to public health insurance for poor households, Trump needs to find ways to take care of his low-income Maga support base. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/26/trump-goes-to-war-with-wealthy-shore-up-maga-base/ (£££)
Does anyone believe this guff that he’s found God?
An attempt to preapre the ground for a US visa which would otherwise be problematic given his convictions. He's going to need to go on the right wing MAGA shitc-nt circuit to rebuild his shattered finances.
For all that I’m glad to see polls like this, it’s still very early days. Governments in their first year are often unpopular. Labour should be thanking their lucky stars that they won a majority with fewer than 10m votes rather than worrying about losing it
Thatcher 79 was unpopular after a year Major 90 held vote share after a year Major 92 was unpopular a year in (Black Wedneday) Blair 97, 01 still popular after a year Blair 05 just about holding vote share a year in Brown 07 decline really kicked in after a year Cameron 10 - still at election level a year in Cameron 15 - still holding vote share a year in May 17 - just about holding on to vote share after a year but Europe soon to crush that Johnson 19 - popular for first year generally Truss 22 - not a year Sunak 22 - probably a little less unpopular than post Truss after a year Starmer 24 - precipitous decline
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
Looks like he's found God, for which he's given himself a big tick. He'd better hope ol' Yahweh doesn't find him.
Is Tommeh antisemitic? His type tend to be quite pro Israel
Genuine Q, I have no idea
Hates Jews but hates Muslims more. Is there a special word for that?
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.
I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.
The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.
HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.
Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.
There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.
Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.
Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number. If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards
Worth keeping an eye on proposed reforms to SEND in education too. That's going to be a real mess because the government's proposals would require legislative changes and they would undoubtedly be controversial.
Whats your take on this @ydoethur ? My high school had a SEND unit bolted onto the school - kids would attend normal classes where they could thanks to additional staff and resources.
My general impression is that schools don't have enough staff and resources to function even with 0 SEND kids. In reality we're much better at diagnosing things like Autism which was largely ignored previously which requires more resources not less.
If we actually resourced schools properly with a generous provision of teaching and support staff, could we remove some of the specialist / emergency SEND spending which all seems to be delivered on a postcode lottery basis?
Yes.
Especially if we dramatically cut class sizes.
But that won't happen. It would be expensive in the short term, whatever the substantial longer term gains, and no politician is willing to spend upfront to make big money later (exhibit A - HS2).
There seem to be loads of SEND kids at my sons school, but is it right the school don’t get the extra money straight away?
For whatever reason, the school is short of money, and the year 1 & 2 classes are going to be merged next school year, to be three classes of thirty combined y1&2 rather than four smaller sized classes by birth year. I wouldn’t want to be the parent of the cleverest kid in y2, I’d feel they might be dragged back.
Worth checking how the school plans to manage it. It can be done well, but it can be done badly as well.
As for why... There's the ongoing baby bust. A decade ago, Havering were talking of expanding our local primary from 60 pupils a year to 90. In the end they didn't, but that would have been a complete white elephant. In inner London, entire schools are closing.
There's also the funding structure, where every individual school/trust has to wash its own face financially. In primary, the numbers only really add up with 30 pupils per class. Four classes of 22 is a lot harder to budget for than 3 of 30; pretty much impossible, I suspect.
Yep even 15 years ago you would want 3 classes of 30 with whatever left over uses for TA support - you can’t afford 4 teachers without cutting TA support which you definitely don’t want
For all that I’m glad to see polls like this, it’s still very early days. Governments in their first year are often unpopular. Labour should be thanking their lucky stars that they won a majority with fewer than 10m votes rather than worrying about losing it
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
Looks like he's found God, for which he's given himself a big tick. He'd better hope ol' Yahweh doesn't find him.
Is Tommeh antisemitic? His type tend to be quite pro Israel
Genuine Q, I have no idea
I wouldn’t have thought so.
I went to a few of Matt Forde’s political party shows circa 2014, and Robinson was one of the guests (I also went to the shows ft Lammy & Jim Murphy). He does speak reasonably well, and if I’m honest I don’t disagree with a lot of what he says. He was a problem with the Islamification of Britain, as do many other people, but he isn’t some kind of white supremacist
He was a member of the British National Party (BNP) and joint vice-chairman of the BNP spin-off, the British Freedom Party (BFP). He's a fascist and a white supremacist.
Nick Griffin was pro Israel at various times, even expressing support for them on his (in)famous QT appearance. These people say any old shite when it suits them but I think we all know what his 'true' feelings are towards Jews.
For all that I’m glad to see polls like this, it’s still very early days. Governments in their first year are often unpopular. Labour should be thanking their lucky stars that they won a majority with fewer than 10m votes rather than worrying about losing it
Ever since Starner's "island of strangers" speech , reform are sticking around 30. Kemomight even have lost a few votes too from it too, as a leader from a minority. Labour need to have a rethink.
Interesting, when it's coupled with this;
We're seeing a pattern in local elections / by-elections where Tories will vote tactically for Reform (like Runcorn) but Reform voters won't vote tactically for the Tories (like here where they've just completely split the right vote).
Makes Labour very vulnerable in the Red Wall, but completely stuffs the Conservatives in both Nice Britain and Boring Britain.
I thought this was obvious - reform voters are non of the above voters - now Bozo got them in 2019 because of Brexit but that’s been and gone, people are not better off and they won’t make the same mistake again
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
Looks like he's found God, for which he's given himself a big tick. He'd better hope ol' Yahweh doesn't find him.
For all that I’m glad to see polls like this, it’s still very early days. Governments in their first year are often unpopular. Labour should be thanking their lucky stars that they won a majority with fewer than 10m votes rather than worrying about losing it
Thatcher 79 was unpopular after a year Major 90 held vote share after a year Major 92 was unpopular a year in (Black Wedneday) Blair 97, 01 still popular after a year Blair 05 just about holding vote share a year in Brown 07 decline really kicked in after a year Cameron 10 - still at election level a year in Cameron 15 - still holding vote share a year in May 17 - just about holding on to vote share after a year but Europe soon to crush that Johnson 19 - popular for first year generally Truss 22 - not a year Sunak 22 - probably a little less unpopular than post Truss after a year Starmer 24 - precipitous decline
A Guardian analysis last week showed that this Starmer government has experienced the worst fall in popularity of any Govt, since their polling records began in 1983
For all that I’m glad to see polls like this, it’s still very early days. Governments in their first year are often unpopular. Labour should be thanking their lucky stars that they won a majority with fewer than 10m votes rather than worrying about losing it
Thatcher 79 was unpopular after a year Major 90 held vote share after a year Major 92 was unpopular a year in (Black Wedneday) Blair 97, 01 still popular after a year Blair 05 just about holding vote share a year in Brown 07 decline really kicked in after a year Cameron 10 - still at election level a year in Cameron 15 - still holding vote share a year in May 17 - just about holding on to vote share after a year but Europe soon to crush that Johnson 19 - popular for first year generally Truss 22 - not a year Sunak 22 - probably a little less unpopular than post Truss after a year Starmer 24 - precipitous decline
A Guardian analysis last week showed that this Starmer government has experienced the worst fall in popularity of any Govt, since their polling records began in 1983
So, yes, this Labour decline is unprecedented
Combined with official oppositions decline its extraordinary
Everyone seems to have an opinion on whether films have become "too woke" but what happens when we try to measure it using actual data. Can we see shifts? How do they correlate with outcomes? https://stephenfollows.com/p/measuring-if-movies-are-too-woke
Films, statistics and graphs.
The analysis appears to show that people are talking about films being "too woke" more rather than whether they actually are "too woke".
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.
I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.
The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.
HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.
Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.
There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.
Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.
Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number. If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards
Worth keeping an eye on proposed reforms to SEND in education too. That's going to be a real mess because the government's proposals would require legislative changes and they would undoubtedly be controversial.
Whats your take on this @ydoethur ? My high school had a SEND unit bolted onto the school - kids would attend normal classes where they could thanks to additional staff and resources.
My general impression is that schools don't have enough staff and resources to function even with 0 SEND kids. In reality we're much better at diagnosing things like Autism which was largely ignored previously which requires more resources not less.
If we actually resourced schools properly with a generous provision of teaching and support staff, could we remove some of the specialist / emergency SEND spending which all seems to be delivered on a postcode lottery basis?
IIRC Isn't an awful lot of the growth in LEA SEND spend taxis, because lots and lots of SEND kids are deemed unable to walk to school/use the regular school bus? Clamping down on this and spending the cash on actual education sounds like it could be a win/win for virtually everyone except the taxi firms.
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
Has he got Peter Green 's unfeasibly long fingernails too?
I suppose as we can't libel/ slander deceased people Peter Green can't sue for being likened to Yaxley -Lennon.
Does anyone believe this guff that he’s found God?
An attempt to preapre the ground for a US visa which would otherwise be problematic given his convictions. He's going to need to go on the right wing MAGA shitc-nt circuit to rebuild his shattered finances.
Why would he have a problem with a US visa ? This is the same US administration that put intense pressure on the Romanian government to let the Tate Brothers leave Romania for the US.
These figures are 'interesting' to say the least and suggest Farage/Reform not as popular as simple poll lead, Kemi not as dreadful as commentary (beats Farage, closer to Starmer) and, above all, some serious upside potential for Lib Dems
For all that I’m glad to see polls like this, it’s still very early days. Governments in their first year are often unpopular. Labour should be thanking their lucky stars that they won a majority with fewer than 10m votes rather than worrying about losing it
Ever since Starner's "island of strangers" speech , reform are sticking around 30. Kemomight even have lost a few votes too from it too, as a leader from a minority. Labour need to have a rethink.
Interesting, when it's coupled with this;
We're seeing a pattern in local elections / by-elections where Tories will vote tactically for Reform (like Runcorn) but Reform voters won't vote tactically for the Tories (like here where they've just completely split the right vote).
Makes Labour very vulnerable in the Red Wall, but completely stuffs the Conservatives in both Nice Britain and Boring Britain.
I thought this was obvious - reform voters are non of the above voters - now Bozo got them in 2019 because of Brexit but that’s been and gone, people are not better off and they won’t make the same mistake again
Leave/Remain is still a key divide imo. I'm happy to be proved wrong by relevant polling (if there is any?) but I bet Reform supporters today who voted on the EU in 2016 were overwhelmingly Leave. By this I mean 90% plus.
For all that I’m glad to see polls like this, it’s still very early days. Governments in their first year are often unpopular. Labour should be thanking their lucky stars that they won a majority with fewer than 10m votes rather than worrying about losing it
Ever since Starner's "island of strangers" speech , reform are sticking around 30. Kemomight even have lost a few votes too from it too, as a leader from a minority. Labour need to have a rethink.
Interesting, when it's coupled with this;
We're seeing a pattern in local elections / by-elections where Tories will vote tactically for Reform (like Runcorn) but Reform voters won't vote tactically for the Tories (like here where they've just completely split the right vote).
It was a mistake to remove Boris as PM but I don’t see a way back for him now. He lost one section of 2019 Tory support with Partygate, and those who weren’t so bothered by that are likely to be furious with him about the increase in immigration. He’ll be attacked on both fronts by all the other leaders, and I don’t see how he can wriggle out of it. A shame for him that his time as PM coincided with the pandemic, he must feel frustrated, but that’s life
His star ascended through COVID. He claimed he got all the big calls right and his fans agreed. His detractors and neutrals were not so convinced. He built up a hat full of goodwill nonetheless and personally blew it with Partygate and Pincher. Johnson was not the victim but the architect of his dramatic decline.
You forgot a P - Paterson
I wonder if there were polling in it, what the public would think was the reason Boris was ousted? I reckon well over half would think it was cake/party and v few would have heard of Pincher/Patterson
Yeah, and he'd have survived cake if not for the other two issues. If it were simply cake he'd have cut and run on an election and 'put it to the people'
The final satisfaction poll by YouGov for Johnson had was 29 Aug 2022 and he was on -43, although his lowest score was -51 on 17 Jan 2022. That lowest score was before Pincher, but fairly soon after the by-election caused by Patterson's departure. Pincher was the last straw for Tory MPs, but doesn't seem to have shifted public views. The public already didn't like him.
If you look at the graph over time, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating , his polling is on a downhill trajectory from Jun 2021. What happened then? I guess the positive COVID/vaccine news was fading and we had the Downing Street refurbishment row. It was also when the cost of living crises was getting going.
He might have survived without Pincher. It was a Westminster bubble issue (not the public disaster that Partygate was) but as regards the parliamentary party it finished him off. There were insufficient supportive MPs for him to form a government. This just a year after Hartlepool. Incredible fall.
He wouldn't have survived without Pincher, I think.
Pincher was merely one (fairly minor) symptom of the PM's fatal character flaws. It was the straw that broke the camel's back, but there was always more straw with Johnson.
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.
I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.
The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.
HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.
Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.
There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.
Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.
Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number. If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards
Worth keeping an eye on proposed reforms to SEND in education too. That's going to be a real mess because the government's proposals would require legislative changes and they would undoubtedly be controversial.
Whats your take on this @ydoethur ? My high school had a SEND unit bolted onto the school - kids would attend normal classes where they could thanks to additional staff and resources.
My general impression is that schools don't have enough staff and resources to function even with 0 SEND kids. In reality we're much better at diagnosing things like Autism which was largely ignored previously which requires more resources not less.
If we actually resourced schools properly with a generous provision of teaching and support staff, could we remove some of the specialist / emergency SEND spending which all seems to be delivered on a postcode lottery basis?
IIRC Isn't an awful lot of the growth in LEA SEND spend taxis, because lots and lots of SEND kids are deemed unable to walk to school/use the regular school bus? Clamping down on this and spending the cash on actual education sounds like it could be a win/win for virtually everyone except the taxi firms.
Any evidence to back that up - that isn’t what the data I have shows?
He’s gone for the Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac look
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
Has he got Peter Green 's unfeasibly long fingernails too?
I suppose as we can't libel/ slander deceased people Peter Green can't sue for being likened to Yaxley -Lennon.
‘Greenbaum’ if we are using birth names
Poor Peter. One of the most tragic stories in Rock music history
For all that I’m glad to see polls like this, it’s still very early days. Governments in their first year are often unpopular. Labour should be thanking their lucky stars that they won a majority with fewer than 10m votes rather than worrying about losing it
Ever since Starner's "island of strangers" speech , reform are sticking around 30. Kemomight even have lost a few votes too from it too, as a leader from a minority. Labour need to have a rethink.
Interesting, when it's coupled with this;
We're seeing a pattern in local elections / by-elections where Tories will vote tactically for Reform (like Runcorn) but Reform voters won't vote tactically for the Tories (like here where they've just completely split the right vote).
Makes Labour very vulnerable in the Red Wall, but completely stuffs the Conservatives in both Nice Britain and Boring Britain.
I thought this was obvious - reform voters are non of the above voters - now Bozo got them in 2019 because of Brexit but that’s been and gone, people are not better off and they won’t make the same mistake again
Leave/Remain is still a key divide imo. I'm happy to be proved wrong by relevant polling (if there is any?) but I bet Reform supporters today who voted on the EU in 2016 were overwhelmingly Leave. By this I mean 90% plus.
On the latest YouGov, Reform have 52% of Leave voters and 8% of Remainers.
Comments
We're spending - as @BartholomewRoberts rightly points out - record sums whilst simultaneously having desperate no cash crises at the front line. A wholesale rethink is needed which means spending more now to save longer term. Any business would just get on with it, but we're stuck in this absurd situation where "we can't afford to sped lots" prevails as we spend lotsandlots as a consequence.
Ridiculous.
Why, you'll be telling me George Best was a drunk next.
Lets take education as an example. Thanks to market reforms we have endless fucking trusts running in many cases a small number of schools. Each trust costs money to run and has staff dedicated to running the trust rather than the actual educational provision. Fragmentation means that supplying schools becomes a minefield - instead of selling supplies to the LEA you're selling to 17 different companies, which means the price goes up.
We had the same nonsense in the ENHS - GPs as managers buying provision and managing contracts. We're spending vast amounts on "choice" whilst bringing the quality of the thing being provided ever lower. Fragmentation costs money. Management costs money. Contracts cost money. Temp staff cost money. We're literally hosepiping cash against the wall, a vast empire of bureaucracy which has little if nothing to do with the actual service being provided.
https://public.conservatives.com/publicweb/GE2024/18 Tax rises.pdf
Whether it's desirable or not is another matter. (Personally, I suspect that making it too cheap to employ staff is part of why we have high employment but so many cruddy low value-added jobs.) But it wasn't a broken promise.
If you want an ex-leader who really would make a difference, bring back Liz Truss - it wouldn't be a positive difference (9% with More in Common) but it would be a difference. Reform would have a majority of 134 and the Conservatives would have no seats at all - even the Greens would have two.
The Conservatives still have 4,375 councillors and 121 MPs - they are very far from extinct. Local Government reorganisation will reduce these numbers as pro-Conservative District Councils are abolished (the LDs and Labour will be hit as well). They are still the second party - polls mean nothing.
The Conservatives are used to being third in polls - it happened in the 80s quite a bit, didn't stop them winning two elections by landslides. They were even (briefly) third in terms of Councillor numbers in 1995 and 1996 behind the LDs. What they've never been is third in the Commons - that's when it will hit home.
Let’s just rejoice in those words
TOMMEH.
FREE.
Perhaps this solves the Tory leadership problem
Edit - also of course Dafydd Wigley and Alex Salmond.
Comrade HY, time to turn the page.
They were just a much worse team and, by bowling first, they made more of a day of it.
Of course the Tories have a tendency to panicked reactions in the last 35 years, increasingly so into the last 15 years. It's the panicked reactions that costs some of the support they are losing.
The LDs, for example, never wet the bed when they were polling 4 or 5%
For whatever reason, the school is short of money, and the year 1 & 2 classes are going to be merged next school year, to be three classes of thirty combined y1&2 rather than four smaller sized classes by birth year. I wouldn’t want to be the parent of the cleverest kid in y2, I’d feel they might be dragged back.
I did say it was 'possible.' Personally, I would agree with you but I can see how it might be argued the other way.
I would say a much bigger problem is that the SEND money is being used to plug very large budgetary gaps elsewhere.
Interesting to see how Farage deals with this actually. He’s trying to walk the tightrope of keeping people who like TR onside without alienating more centrist types. Like Starmer’s trick with the Labour left, it is not going to be easy
However he still speaks quite fluently and passionately to camera (whatever you think of him; I think he’s more a fool than a Hitler). Disconcertingly he speaks better to camera than any of the major party leaders bar Farage. Makes you realise how bad they are
He also makes the claim that 167m people have seen his movie. Can that possibly be right?!
He'd better hope ol' Yahweh doesn't find him.
If you look at the graph over time, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating , his polling is on a downhill trajectory from Jun 2021. What happened then? I guess the positive COVID/vaccine news was fading and we had the Downing Street refurbishment row. It was also when the cost of living crises was getting going.
Genuine Q, I have no idea
As for why... There's the ongoing baby bust. A decade ago, Havering were talking of expanding our local primary from 60 pupils a year to 90. In the end they didn't, but that would have been a complete white elephant. In inner London, entire schools are closing.
There's also the funding structure, where every individual school/trust has to wash its own face financially. In primary, the numbers only really add up with 30 pupils per class. Four classes of 22 is a lot harder to budget for than 3 of 30; pretty much impossible, I suspect.
I went to a few of Matt Forde’s political party shows circa 2014, and Robinson was one of the guests (I also went to the shows ft Lammy & Jim Murphy). He does speak reasonably well, and if I’m honest I don’t disagree with a lot of what he says. He was a problem with the Islamification of Britain, as do many other people, but he isn’t some kind of white supremacist
Analysis of more than 50,000 films shows rise in those with social justice subtext, heavy-handed messaging and focus on representation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/27/movies-woke-and-i-can-prove-it-stephen-follows/ (£££)
Source analysis from:-
Can we measure if movies have become "too woke"?
Everyone seems to have an opinion on whether films have become "too woke" but what happens when we try to measure it using actual data. Can we see shifts? How do they correlate with outcomes?
https://stephenfollows.com/p/measuring-if-movies-are-too-woke
Films, statistics and graphs.
Just dropping in briefly to thank you all for your immensely kind and touching good wishes and responses to my header. They meant a lot. I was worried that it was too personal and not at all appropriate for this site. But what a lovely bunch you are. Thank you.
When the docs told me they then started (and I'm pretty sure I wasn't listening properly at this point) going on about gardening. Now cancer is bad enough but I suddenly worried:
"Are they telling me to stop gardening?"
Because if anything would have plunged me into a pit of despair that would have.
Then there was talk of wigs.
"Oh Christ! This is really bad!"
But no it was all about avoiding cuts / infections etc / sepsis and so forth and the hair will grow back etc. Phew! Anyway my late mother left me a load of lovely silk Hermes scarves so their time has come.
So picture me in the garden wearing thigh high boots, thick impenetrable gloves like falconers wear and the sort of extravagantly colourful headgear last seen on Camilla Batmanjelly. I shall become a Lake District legend! Or eccentric! (Or possibly star in a very niche website indeed!) A spot on the viewers' gardens section of Gardeners World surely cannot be far behind.
Fortunately following tradition the last month of Mediterranean sunshine ceased the moment the Bank Holiday and half-term started so being warm outside is essential. It's an ill wind etc....
Stay well. I'll be back one day. Just need to reorient myself to this unexpected "adventure".
PS Having Boris back is like returning to an abusive boyfriend who's pretty much destroyed your confidence and isolated you from your real friends and family before you've paid off the money he's cost you and finished the therapy to explain why you fell for the lying scrote in the first place and how to avoid doing it again. Just no.
📊 Ref lead of 8pts
Westminster voting intention
REF: 30% (+1)
LAB: 22% (-)
CON: 17% (-1)
LDEM: 16% (+1)
GRN: 9% (-)
via @TechneUK, 21 - 22 May
Chgs. w/ 15 May
britainelects.com
https://x.com/britainelects/status/1927292487133012058?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
His parole annoys me.
he was imprisoned for repeatedly breaking an injunction against repeating a libel, a libel that was deliberate harassment
he has previous convictions for harassment, including making false allegations
he has other previous convictions for violence and fraud
and he is so patriotic that he owes 6 figures to HMRC
He is not a prisoner who has shown any evidence that he has been rehabilitated and is unlikely to reoffend, so he should be serving his full sentence inside.
Labour need to have a rethink.
We're seeing a pattern in local elections / by-elections where Tories will vote tactically for Reform (like Runcorn) but Reform voters won't vote tactically for the Tories (like here where they've just completely split the right vote).
https://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3lq5cecyg662f
Makes Labour very vulnerable in the Red Wall, but completely stuffs the Conservatives in both Nice Britain and Boring Britain.
...
But as Republicans prepare their “big, beautiful bill” for tax and spending, which includes $880bn in cuts to public health insurance for poor households, Trump needs to find ways to take care of his low-income Maga support base.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/26/trump-goes-to-war-with-wealthy-shore-up-maga-base/ (£££)
Thatcher 79 was unpopular after a year
Major 90 held vote share after a year
Major 92 was unpopular a year in (Black Wedneday)
Blair 97, 01 still popular after a year
Blair 05 just about holding vote share a year in
Brown 07 decline really kicked in after a year
Cameron 10 - still at election level a year in
Cameron 15 - still holding vote share a year in
May 17 - just about holding on to vote share after a year but Europe soon to crush that
Johnson 19 - popular for first year generally
Truss 22 - not a year
Sunak 22 - probably a little less unpopular than post Truss after a year
Starmer 24 - precipitous decline
A Guardian analysis last week showed that this Starmer government has experienced the worst fall in popularity of any Govt, since their polling records began in 1983
So, yes, this Labour decline is unprecedented
I suppose as we can't libel/ slander deceased people Peter Green can't sue for being likened to Yaxley -Lennon.
https://notesfrompoland.com/2025/05/26/poland-joins-eight-countries-calling-for-rethink-of-european-rights-convention-in-relation-to-migrants/
A good Reform/Tory poll is not worth a bean if it is not posted on here half a dozen times.
Trump might even invite him to the White House.
These figures are 'interesting' to say the least and suggest Farage/Reform not as popular as simple poll lead, Kemi not as dreadful as commentary (beats Farage, closer to Starmer) and, above all, some serious upside potential for Lib Dems
Pincher was merely one (fairly minor) symptom of the PM's fatal character flaws. It was the straw that broke the camel's back, but there was always more straw with Johnson.
Poor Peter. One of the most tragic stories in Rock music history
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/VotingIntention_MRP_250512_w.pdf
Given how unpopular Starmer is this is quite a reflection on Farage and Badenoch.
https://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3lq5gchfkys2i
Ref lead of 11pts
Westminster voting intention
REF: 32% (+3)
LAB: 21% (-)
CON: 16% (-3)
LDEM: 14% (+1)
GRN: 11% (-)
via @FindoutnowUK, 21 May
Chgs. w/ 30 Apr
Of course, changing the convention is not actually anti human rights. But what would Philippe Sands say at the next dinner party?