politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m now betting that Cameron will not appear in any lea
Yesterday I spent several hours in Westminster talking to key figures and attending the Robert Hayward briefing (see previous post). One of the things I tried to get a sense of was the debates. Are these going to happen?
Comments
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Hmm. I see your logic.
However, if I were playing hardball to get the debates into the format I wanted, I'd make sure that the broadcasters knew that I was implacably opposed, so that they attempted a concession close. That would require making sure that everyone knew that I was implacably opposed, not giving a hint to anyone that I might take part on terms to my liking.0 -
No way will Dave appear. He can only lose. All the others need the debates to boost their standing. Why should he help them?0
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FPT:
Good evening, everyone.
Plain packs seems a bit puritanical to me.
Cover up breasts, Mohammed, cigarettes, and don't be mean on Twitter or the rozzers might come for you. It's not great for general freedom of expression.
On-topic: as the debates are appalling, I'd be entirely happy if they didn't happen. It'd be weird to have them without the PM.
Incidentally, 'takink' should be 'taking'.0 -
For reasons that passeth all understanding the Labour brand remains more popular than the Tory brand. But the Cameron brand is significantly more popular than the Miliband brand (a low bar, I will grant you). So the Tories have to make this as Presidential a campaign as possible making this a straight choice between the leaders.
How does not debating Miliband fit into this exactly? I just don't see it.
And when you see a PMQs like today you can't help feeling my 11 year old son would wipe the floor with Ed.0 -
I suspect, as I've said before, that DC might lose his temper during a "debate".
And he knows it!0 -
Yes, the debates are off. Cameron has cemented his excuse that the Greens have to be represented, and Miliband won't relish that prospect now that the Greens are sucking Labour dry. And anyway, the only ones who were keen were those who wanted to see Farage duff up Dave, namely Labour and UKIP. And who cares what UKIP think.0
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According to the weekend Opinium Farage has the highest expectation to do well (49% to 21) so Farage would have to perform pretty outstanding to exceed expectations himself and would he even be that strong discussing the NHS, economy etc.? Not to mention that he could be in a crowded five person debate if the Greens get forced in.
I think the lure of having the campaign narrative set by the press is Cameron's main objective in avoiding the debates rather than being beaten by Farage. We saw with the European Elections just gone how they relentlessly attacked UKIP and Labour.0 -
how about taking part instead?0
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In the YC's Jane Ellison was known as Hanoi Jane.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
Good evening, everyone.
Plain packs seems a bit puritanical to me.
Cover up breasts, Mohammed, cigarettes, and don't be mean on Twitter or the rozzers might come for you. It's not great for general freedom of expression.
On-topic: as the debates are appalling, I'd be entirely happy if they didn't happen. It'd be weird to have them without the PM.
Incidentally, 'takink' should be 'taking'.
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Mr. L, the problem for the blues is this:
Miliband is expected to turn up, gurn, trip over the set, and be as rubbish as possible short of soiling himself. If he's other than terrible, that confounds expectations and looks good.
Cameron is expected to kick Miliband's arse. A modest win would be an underperformance.
People think Miliband is weird. Some view him with contempt, some with pity. The debates are a chance for him to turn that around [or reinforce it, but if he reinforces it he hasn't lost anything].
UKIP pose a risk to the Conservative right flank. Farage won't be in power so he can promise a British moon on a British stick without having the worry of ever having to fulfil the promise.0 -
Deluded Kippers?Artist said:According to the weekend Opinium Farage has the highest expectation to do well (49% to 21) so Farage would have to perform pretty outstanding to exceed expectations himself and would he even be that strong discussing the NHS, economy etc.? Not to mention that he could be in a crowded five person debate if the Greens get forced in.
I think the lure of having the campaign narrative set by the press is Cameron's main objective in avoiding the debates rather than being beaten by Farage. We saw with the European Elections just gone how they relentlessly attacked UKIP and Labour.0 -
@saddo
No downside I can see, he did say before the last election that the debates weren't an essential part of a free democracy.
Now I think on it, he might have said they were essential?..
No matter, I am sure there is a video of his quotes on the subject extant, so the more dilligent will be able to verify which it was.
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Mr. F, YC's? Young Conservatives?
Damned puritans.0 -
"At the BBC the big corporate consideration is the renewal of its charter and it wouldn’t want to do anything to rock the boat."
Really have you seen their recent articles about charter renewal and coverage...0 -
I agree, Mike.
Only overwhelming pressure of public opinion would make DC change his mind, and I can't see it increasing enough to force an about turn.0 -
I think democracy is better served without the debates. In 2010, did we really get anything positive out of them in terms of clarity on policy or real insight into personality? No. There was a novelty factor - which has long since gone. And we got 'I agree with Nick' - and now not even Nick agrees with Nick (given the number of policy backflips he has performed)
The debates don't add anything. Other than a lot of talking points. And we don't need any more of that.0 -
I'd like the debates to go ahead, but can't fault the logic of that.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, the problem for the blues is this:
Miliband is expected to turn up, gurn, trip over the set, and be as rubbish as possible short of soiling himself. If he's other than terrible, that confounds expectations and looks good.
Cameron is expected to kick Miliband's arse. A modest win would be an underperformance.
People think Miliband is weird. Some view him with contempt, some with pity. The debates are a chance for him to turn that around [or reinforce it, but if he reinforces it he hasn't lost anything].
UKIP pose a risk to the Conservative right flank. Farage won't be in power so he can promise a British moon on a British stick without having the worry of ever having to fulfil the promise.
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It depends on what mood the press are in at the time. As we saw in 2010, the press were desperate for a bit of novelty and an upset, so Clegg's performance was hyped to the stratosphere. Farage is still - just - seen as an iconoclast and a 'character' so he might benefit similarly. On the other hand, if everyone's drooling with expectation at what he might do and he disappoints, then he could really bomb. (We Brits do tend to build our heroes up only to tear them down.)Artist said:According to the weekend Opinium Farage has the highest expectation to do well (49% to 21) so Farage would have to perform pretty outstanding to exceed expectations himself and would he even be that strong discussing the NHS, economy etc.? Not to mention that he could be in a crowded five person debate if the Greens get forced in.
I think the lure of having the campaign narrative set by the press is Cameron's main objective in avoiding the debates rather than being beaten by Farage. We saw with the European Elections just gone how they relentlessly attacked UKIP and Labour.0 -
I wonder if these, and several other clips will get another airing in the run up to the GE?
http://news.sky.com/video/1407607/when-cameron-believed-in-debates0 -
It could work out that if Farage ,Miliband and Clegg get together for a formalised debate and Cameron goes off on a soap box then it would look like Cameron is the breath of fresh air and Farage part of the establisment0
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The BBC at least could never do a stunt like the empty chair in the election period -too much like showing bias or making a political point. The most they will do is say they invited Cameron but he turned it down.0
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Of course it's in Cameron's interest not be seen along side Farage. Farage's policies of global trade deals and controlled immigration are obviously common sense, while Cameron's position of next to no change in the EU and 250k coming here every year seem ridiculous. The contrast would be obvious if they were put side by side.0
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@Morris_Dancer
1990s levels of migration and bilateral agreements in the Swiss or Canadian manner are perfectly feasible things and not "a moon on a stick".0 -
The broadcasters should go ahead with the debates and leave a tub of lard to represent Cameron.0
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I suspect the decision not to debate is the correct one for Cameron. But it will still hurt him. How much depends on just how annoyed the TV companies are. They set the news agenda and they can drag this issue out for weeks, maybe even months.
The media loves nothing more than talking about itself.0 -
If Cameron and the Greens aren't at the debates, I will run naked down my street.0
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Betfair Exchange punters put Tories winning more seats and overall majority more likely than Labour for the first time today.0
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Dave avoiding the debates so far hasn't harmed him - and the issue has been prominent in the news.
Once the campaign starts, if the debates are off it won't be in the news. The media aren't going to keep talking about the issue once it's been resolved - they will talk about the campaigning that is taking place.0 -
Who wouldn't, with Farage promising stuff he could never deliver.OldKingCole said:I suspect, as I've said before, that DC might lose his temper during a "debate".
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No assists please CescTheWatcher said:
Who wouldn't, with Farage promising stuff he could never deliver.OldKingCole said:I suspect, as I've said before, that DC might lose his temper during a "debate".
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Edwardian said:
If Cameron and the Greens aren't at the debates, I will run naked down my street.
You may have to post your age and sex before people decide whether to take that bet or not.
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Mr. Socrates, I agree, both with those policies and your assessment of them. But my point still stands.0
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Mike is right to see this from a Tory point of view. Anyone advising Cameron would tell him to steer well clear of the debates now UKIP are involved. I can't see any upsides for Cameron. Farage would do well as the outsider, would beat the rest and it would hurt the Tory vote the most.
I didn't like the debates anyway. I thought they were crap. And the spin doctoring which followed was do banal and predictable.
I'd much prefer each leader to submit to an hour long grilling from Andrew Neill. Now that would be illuminating and something difficult to spin afterwards.0 -
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Let's just say, I should only do it at night when everyone is asleep.MarkHopkins said:Edwardian said:If Cameron and the Greens aren't at the debates, I will run naked down my street.
You may have to post your age and sex before people decide whether to take that bet or not.
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FPT @ Jane Ellison - unfortunately, for too many Conservative modernisers, their thinking didn't go much further than, "We need to be more like Blair".
They failed to diagnose that it's a different party, with different problems, in a different time, that required different solutions.
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Even if it isn't news, don't you think people might notice that one leader is missing?MikeL said:Dave avoiding the debates so far hasn't harmed him - and the issue has been prominent in the news.
Once the campaign starts, if the debates are off it won't be in the news. The media aren't going to keep talking about the issue once it's been resolved - they will talk about the campaigning that is taking place.
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Professor of China, The Lard Taffy (of 2-Jags, diary-secretaries, and two-fists) Prescott of 'Ull undt 'Umbershyte would rather sell England down the pan. Or do you mean a dead-animals fat...?Socrates said:The broadcasters should go ahead with the debates and leave a tub of lard to represent Cameron.
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"The Master".Casino_Royale said:FPT @ Jane Ellison - unfortunately, for too many Conservative modernisers, their thinking didn't go much further than, "We need to be more like Blair".
Perhaps that's the fault line on the centre-right. Between those who were generally happy with Blair's government, and those who weren't.
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Of course.Edwardian said:
Even if it isn't news, don't you think people might notice that one leader is missing?MikeL said:Dave avoiding the debates so far hasn't harmed him - and the issue has been prominent in the news.
Once the campaign starts, if the debates are off it won't be in the news. The media aren't going to keep talking about the issue once it's been resolved - they will talk about the campaigning that is taking place.
I would have thought it was blindingly obvious that my post was addressing the issue of potential criticism of Cameron if there are no debates.0 -
Free speech is advocated in this country as long as it's exercised within the de-facto agreed boundaries of soft-left socio-cultural thinking.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
Good evening, everyone.
Plain packs seems a bit puritanical to me.
Cover up breasts, Mohammed, cigarettes, and don't be mean on Twitter or the rozzers might come for you. It's not great for general freedom of expression.
On-topic: as the debates are appalling, I'd be entirely happy if they didn't happen. It'd be weird to have them without the PM.
Incidentally, 'takink' should be 'taking'.0 -
Mr. Royale, alas.
As an aside, the cover of Sir Edric's Temple features the eponymous chap smoking. If the puritans go much further it'll get banned.
Edited extra bit: that reminds me. A few years ago some censorious swine wanted to slap an 18 certificate on 101 Dalmatians. Not because of potential puppy slaughter, but because Cruella De Vil smoked.0 -
As I have bored on about before, I went to Brighton Uni when I was 35 to study Humanities.. when I walked in I was a lefty who had just voted for Gordon Brown in the 2010 GE.. a year of attempted Marxist/SWP brainwashing later I reached the conclusion that modern progressive left wingers are the same as old fashioned bigoted 1950s right wingers, they just have different people they are blindly prejudiced againstCasino_Royale said:
Free speech is advocated in this country as long as it's exercised within the de-facto agreed boundaries of soft-left socio-cultural thinking.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
Good evening, everyone.
Plain packs seems a bit puritanical to me.
Cover up breasts, Mohammed, cigarettes, and don't be mean on Twitter or the rozzers might come for you. It's not great for general freedom of expression.
On-topic: as the debates are appalling, I'd be entirely happy if they didn't happen. It'd be weird to have them without the PM.
Incidentally, 'takink' should be 'taking'.0 -
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Incidentally, this wolf hall adaptation is rather better for telling the story without Mantel's turgid prose.
Never understood how those books became so feted - it was like a whole generation of critics who'd never read Dumas or Scott and were amazed to see historical fiction.0 -
Can anyone think of a case anywhere in the world where TV debates have happened in one election but then not in the next?
I take the point about the BBC potentially being bullied (which is why you shouldn't have state-funded broadcasters or the weird TV poll tax equivalent) but an empty chair drama would be great entertainment. This doesn't have to look spiteful - say everybody is invited, then make a big last-minute drama about whether Cameron will show up. It doesn't matter if they know he won't - just talk like he might.0 -
I thought someone on here said USA the other day.edmundintokyo said:Can anyone think of a case anywhere in the world where TV debates have happened in one election but then not in the next?
I take the point about the BBC potentially being bullied (which is why you shouldn't have state-funded broadcasters or the weird TV poll tax equivalent) but an empty chair drama would be great entertainment. This doesn't have to look spiteful - say everybody is invited, then make a big last-minute drama about whether Cameron will show up. It doesn't matter if they know he won't - just talk like he might.0 -
America.edmundintokyo said:Can anyone think of a case anywhere in the world where TV debates have happened in one election but then not in the next?
I take the point about the BBC potentially being bullied (which is why you shouldn't have state-funded broadcasters or the weird TV poll tax equivalent) but an empty chair drama would be great entertainment. This doesn't have to look spiteful - say everybody is invited, then make a big last-minute drama about whether Cameron will show up. It doesn't matter if they know he won't - just talk like he might.
There was a Presidential debate in 1960, then the next one was in 1976,0 -
Obviously, no historical novelist can match the skills of Emily Purdy, who created a lesbian sex scene between Katherine Howard and Ann of Cleves.maaarsh said:Incidentally, this wolf hall adaptation is rather better for telling the story without Mantel's turgid prose.
Never understood how those books became so feted - it was like a whole generation of critics who'd never read Dumas or Scott and were amazed to see historical fiction.
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Talking of Chicken ....
I was sent one of THE oldest jokes, but it still cracks me up when I hear it...
....
A young Chinese couple gets married. She's a virgin. Truth be told, he is a virgin too, but she doesn't know that.
On their wedding night, she cowers naked under the sheets as her husband undresses in the darkness.
He climbs into bed next to her and tries to be reassuring.
'My darring,' he whispers, 'I know dis you firss time and you berry flighten. I promise you, I give you anyting you want, I do anyting - juss anyting you want. You juss ask. Whatchu want?' he says, trying to sound experienced and worldly, which he hopes will impress her.
A thoughtful silence follows and he waits patiently (and eagerly) for her request.
She eventually shyly whispers back,
- 'I want to try someting I have hear about from odda girls... Numbaa 69.'
More thoughtful silence from him. Eventually, in a puzzled tone he asks her.....
- 'You want...... Garlic Chicken wif special fried rice?
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Kennedy-Nixon ... then a long hiatus?
update - TSE got there first.0 -
TBF the schedule required David Cameron to be designed in 2005 and pushed out to consumers in 2006/2007. They couldn't reasonably have predicted how the Lehman Shock and its aftermath would knock their strategy on its arse.Casino_Royale said:FPT @ Jane Ellison - unfortunately, for too many Conservative modernisers, their thinking didn't go much further than, "We need to be more like Blair".
They failed to diagnose that it's a different party, with different problems, in a different time, that required different solutions.0 -
Of course Puritanism is a fine old English and Scottish tradition!Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
Good evening, everyone.
Plain packs seems a bit puritanical to me.
Cover up breasts, Mohammed, cigarettes, and don't be mean on Twitter or the rozzers might come for you. It's not great for general freedom of expression.
On-topic: as the debates are appalling, I'd be entirely happy if they didn't happen. It'd be weird to have them without the PM.
Incidentally, 'takink' should be 'taking'.
I am quite happy with plain packing myself. We have banned advertising and also shop displays. Banning branded packs are yet another overdue step towards a total ban. About time too for a product that kills half its users and financially ruins the rest.
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One of my friends was seeing a Chinese girl about 20 years ago and another one of my mates told me a variation on that joke but as if it had really happened.. and I fell for itSquareRoot said:Talking of Chicken ....
I was sent one of THE oldest jokes, but it still cracks me up when I hear it...
....
A young Chinese couple gets married. She's a virgin. Truth be told, he is a virgin too, but she doesn't know that.
On their wedding night, she cowers naked under the sheets as her husband undresses in the darkness.
He climbs into bed next to her and tries to be reassuring.
'My darring,' he whispers, 'I know dis you firss time and you berry flighten. I promise you, I give you anyting you want, I do anyting - juss anyting you want. You juss ask. Whatchu want?' he says, trying to sound experienced and worldly, which he hopes will impress her.
A thoughtful silence follows and he waits patiently (and eagerly) for her request.
She eventually shyly whispers back,
- 'I want to try someting I have hear about from odda girls... Numbaa 69.'
More thoughtful silence from him. Eventually, in a puzzled tone he asks her.....
- 'You want...... Garlic Chicken wif special fried rice?
It was about wanting a blow job at 3am because he couldnt sleep, being accused of being selfish so saying "how about a 69?"
"I aint fucking cooking this time in the morning"0 -
30+ million didn't watch in 2010.edmundintokyo said:an empty chair drama would be great entertainment.
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Nearly as many as don't watch EastEnderschestnut said:
30+ million didn't watch in 2010.edmundintokyo said:an empty chair drama would be great entertainment.
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Fairy nuff. An empty chair is easier to pull off with more than two guys though, since you still have something to put on telly even if whoever it is doesn't blink.TheScreamingEagles said:
America.edmundintokyo said:Can anyone think of a case anywhere in the world where TV debates have happened in one election but then not in the next?
I take the point about the BBC potentially being bullied (which is why you shouldn't have state-funded broadcasters or the weird TV poll tax equivalent) but an empty chair drama would be great entertainment. This doesn't have to look spiteful - say everybody is invited, then make a big last-minute drama about whether Cameron will show up. It doesn't matter if they know he won't - just talk like he might.
There was a Presidential debate in 1960, then the next one was in 1976,0 -
The more I think about it, the better an Empty chair is for Cameron. Let the minnows squabble whilst Dave governs in the interests of the people.. No wonder tim tried to get to Lynton Crosby with some very personal attacks.0
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That's my point, more people would tune in to watch a dramatic "will he show up" fake suspense than would want to see the actual debate...chestnut said:
30+ million didn't watch in 2010.edmundintokyo said:an empty chair drama would be great entertainment.
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On topic, Dave and the Tories must have worked out the relative risk/rewards of not taking part and decided the risks hugely outweigh any potential rewards.
After Ed's performance at PMQs today, Labour will be delighted there will be no debates.0 -
Someone tell me this is a spoof.
Page 3 helped create the Jimmy Savile era
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B756xXHCcAASQtp.jpg0 -
Perhaps I could offer to stand in for Cameron.edmundintokyo said:
That's my point, more people would tune in to watch a dramatic "will he show up" fake suspense than would want to see the actual debate...chestnut said:
30+ million didn't watch in 2010.edmundintokyo said:an empty chair drama would be great entertainment.
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Agreed - and she comes across as the most self-righteous smug humourless individual to boot.maaarsh said:Incidentally, this wolf hall adaptation is rather better for telling the story without Mantel's turgid prose.
Never understood how those books became so feted - it was like a whole generation of critics who'd never read Dumas or Scott and were amazed to see historical fiction.
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If, as many of us expect, the Tories go into the General Election campaign as the expected winners, why would any TV company run the risk of alienating the PM by empty chairing him?
Just imagine if Toenails, Tom Bradby or Adam Boulton was told there would be no place for them on the PM's plane to Washington, Beijing or Moscow and they wouldn't be accredited for press calls etc. The TV companies would also not want to risk being tied up in an expensive court action with party lawyers.
Tonight Nicola Sturgeon has said her SNP MPs would be willing to vote on English only issues if she thinks it affects Scotland.
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On topic, here is a video UKIP have made with Cameron twice saying he will be in the debates
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2U_0tuvxAiw0 -
I wonder what she'd say if she read Cosmopolitan.TheScreamingEagles said:Someone tell me this is a spoof.
Page 3 helped create the Jimmy Savile era
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B756xXHCcAASQtp.jpg
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I should stand in for Dave, my excellent wit, I could wind up Farage and Miliband into making embarrassing faux pas.Sean_F said:
Perhaps I could offer to stand in for Cameron.edmundintokyo said:
That's my point, more people would tune in to watch a dramatic "will he show up" fake suspense than would want to see the actual debate...chestnut said:
30+ million didn't watch in 2010.edmundintokyo said:an empty chair drama would be great entertainment.
So Nigel, since you arrived on time for this debate, this is clear evidence of the Tories reducing immigration.
Or who was Douglas Carswell talking about when he said, UKIP should be less angry towards immigrants.0 -
The most important decision is what music to play as each of the politicians comes on for the debates...
David Cameron - Here We Go Again
Nick Clegg - Don't Leave Me This Way
Ed Miliband - The Only Way Is Up
Nigel Farage - Rule Britannia
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You'd do well. And, you could get to tell the joke about Superman, Wonderwoman, and the Invisible Man on air to wind up the feminists.TheScreamingEagles said:
I should stand in for Dave, my excellent wit, I could wind up Farage and Miliband into making embarrassing faux pas.Sean_F said:
Perhaps I could offer to stand in for Cameron.edmundintokyo said:
That's my point, more people would tune in to watch a dramatic "will he show up" fake suspense than would want to see the actual debate...chestnut said:
30+ million didn't watch in 2010.edmundintokyo said:an empty chair drama would be great entertainment.
So Nigel, since you arrived on time for this debate, this is clear evidence of the Tories reducing immigration.
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"Tonight Nicola Sturgeon has said her SNP MPs would be willing to vote on English only issues if she thinks it affects Scotland."
Should that prove to be the case then that will prove to be the end of the Union as we know it and will inevitably lead to the onset of an English Parliament to replace Westminster.0 -
Peter the interview has just featured on BBC News at Tenpeter_from_putney said:"Tonight Nicola Sturgeon has said her SNP MPs would be willing to vote on English only issues if she thinks it affects Scotland."
Should that prove to be the case then that will prove to be the end of the Union as we know it and will inevitably lead to the onset of an English Parliament to replace Westminster.0 -
I've been winding up feminists for years, I say to themSean_F said:
You'd do well. And, you could get to tell the joke about Superman, Wonderwoman, and the Invisible Man on air to wind up the feminists.TheScreamingEagles said:
I should stand in for Dave, my excellent wit, I could wind up Farage and Miliband into making embarrassing faux pas.Sean_F said:
Perhaps I could offer to stand in for Cameron.edmundintokyo said:
That's my point, more people would tune in to watch a dramatic "will he show up" fake suspense than would want to see the actual debate...chestnut said:
30+ million didn't watch in 2010.edmundintokyo said:an empty chair drama would be great entertainment.
So Nigel, since you arrived on time for this debate, this is clear evidence of the Tories reducing immigration.
"I hope you don't find this condescending, which means, talking down to you"
The joke that got me into trouble with feminists was this one
"To all those feminists calling for a female Doctor in Doctor Who, have clearly misunderstood the point, he's a Doctor, not a nurse....No really, I love feminists, especially the fit sexy ones"0 -
Tonight's YouGov now imminent !0
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I wonder who is going to get the blame for what the Daily Rant are calling a "cover-up" over Chilcott?
Is there any danger for the Tories / Cameron here?0 -
DC is a bit of a difficult position, not wanting to be seen holding it up, and yet can't call for release without prejudicing the independence of the inquiry. But I doubt anyone will stick the knife in.FrancisUrquhart said:I wonder who is going to get the blame for what the Daily Rant are calling a "cover-up" over Chilcott?
Is there any danger for the Tories / Cameron here?0 -
@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 8%0
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Yes, it's all over tomorrow's newspapers too.Easterross said:
Peter the interview has just featured on BBC News at Tenpeter_from_putney said:"Tonight Nicola Sturgeon has said her SNP MPs would be willing to vote on English only issues if she thinks it affects Scotland."
Should that prove to be the case then that will prove to be the end of the Union as we know it and will inevitably lead to the onset of an English Parliament to replace Westminster.0 -
I don't think so.FrancisUrquhart said:I wonder who is going to get the blame for what the Daily Rant are calling a "cover-up" over Chilcott?
Is there any danger for the Tories / Cameron here?
What the fun thing would be, if it were leaked during the election campaign.0 -
We have passed "peak Hippy"Scott_P said:@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 8%
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Tories actually UP on the poll where they led yesterday -- difference is Labour have a bigger share of the leftie vote in this sample.Scott_P said:@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 8%
I repeat what I said yesterday: Labour's separate battles with the SNP/UKIP/Greens will determine the election.0 -
Another poll with the Lib Dems trailing the Greens.0
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The article is here:TheScreamingEagles said:Someone tell me this is a spoof.
Page 3 helped create the Jimmy Savile era
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B756xXHCcAASQtp.jpg
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-life/11359993/Page-3-helped-create-the-Jimmy-Savile-era.html
But Page 3 ended because of market forces rather than a ban. A triumph of consumerism.0 -
Thank you.foxinsoxuk said:
The article is here:TheScreamingEagles said:Someone tell me this is a spoof.
Page 3 helped create the Jimmy Savile era
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B756xXHCcAASQtp.jpg
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-life/11359993/Page-3-helped-create-the-Jimmy-Savile-era.html
But Page 3 ended because of market forces rather than a ban. A triumph of consumerism.0 -
Good, balanced, thread Mike.
I still think Dave debating alone with the Greens would be an amusing riposte but unlikely to happen.0 -
That's not quite my point. The New Labour "project" was predicated on the fact that Labour had lost four elections in a row due to its perceived vested interests, anti-aspiration sentiment and left-wing policy, leading to a split centre-left vote.edmundintokyo said:
TBF the schedule required David Cameron to be designed in 2005 and pushed out to consumers in 2006/2007. They couldn't reasonably have predicted how the Lehman Shock and its aftermath would knock their strategy on its arse.Casino_Royale said:FPT @ Jane Ellison - unfortunately, for too many Conservative modernisers, their thinking didn't go much further than, "We need to be more like Blair".
They failed to diagnose that it's a different party, with different problems, in a different time, that required different solutions.
That diagnosis was basically correct: it was essentially a policy problem. Blair correctly understood he needed to distance himself from the unions, shed the left-wing dogma, be visibly seen pro-aspiration, run a very tight media operation, and prepare for a reconciliation with the Liberal Democrats. Very successful in winning middle-England, even if disillusionment set in fast. But that's another story.
In the Tories case, the problem was (is) different. It's mainly a brand problem. Much of its policy on immigration, europe, crime and putting Britain first in foreign affairs remained popular. There *was* a policy problem with the public services - that the Tories didn't care about the NHS, or Education, for instance - and that bit the modernisers got correct.
However, that can be linked to the main problem. Which is the perceived motives, attitudes and behaviour of the Conservative party itself. The perception it was self-interested, elitist, contemptuous of others, disloyal internally, out-of-touch and only interested in the wealthy.
The behaviour of too many of its MPs was simply appalling. They reeked of entitlement, pomposity and arrogance, and, far too often, moral hypocrisy as well. It didn't help that they could also be downright bastards too.
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Lab 30 yesterday, 34 today.....bit more exciting than reporting 32 on both days...0
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Talking of leaks...this is still drip drip drip dripping away....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2919664/Secret-file-detailing-unnatural-sexual-behaviour-Westminster-VIP-paedophile-scandal-80s-discovered-probably-seen-Margaret-Thatcher.html
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Have the Greens enjoyed their moment in the sun?
Oh dear, does this mean the return of bigjohnowls and his little witicisms?0 -
I know how much you all appreciate metaphors, (you do don't you?)
Anyway, heres mine for the UK in the last thirty years, after it's botched restoration job.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-30926084-1 -
You should say that every time someone says we're past peak UKIP...!isam said:
We have passed "peak Hippy"Scott_P said:@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 8%
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Looks like a crude attempt to blame big R for Savile's failure to keep his hands to himself. Though another huge media group has had more of its former staff making statements under oath.Sean_F said:
I wonder what she'd say if she read Cosmopolitan.TheScreamingEagles said:Someone tell me this is a spoof.
Page 3 helped create the Jimmy Savile era
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B756xXHCcAASQtp.jpg0 -
Harmans banging on about UKIP being sexist.. so lefty & feminist it's like reading comments from the Tories on this site!
Interesting ideas about UKIP sexual technique from her though.. is there something overtly chauvinistic about people who take sex backwards?
"Ukip is a party led by 'Neanderthal sexists', blasts Harman: Feminist Labour deputy leader says women should 'beware' of the party in provocative attack
Criticised senior Ukip women, saying party wanted to take sex 'backwards'
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2920641/Ukip-party-led-Neanderthal-sexists-blasts-Harman.html#ixzz3PUwT8Lol
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
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Extreme feminism is clearly out of control in today's UK.
They celebrate the end of Page 3 but have nothing to say on FGM or forced marriages.TheScreamingEagles said:Someone tell me this is a spoof.
Page 3 helped create the Jimmy Savile era
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B756xXHCcAASQtp.jpg0 -
Paddy Power have changed their Greens vote share line.
Over 5.5% 5/6
Under 5.5% 5/60 -
4.0 still there with Shadsy on Greens vs LD on match betting.TheScreamingEagles said:Another poll with the Lib Dems trailing the Greens.
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I know I haven't mentioned this much, but I'm on at 20/1 on the Greens outpolling the Lib Dems.foxinsoxuk said:
4.0 still there with Shadsy on Greens vs LD on match betting.TheScreamingEagles said:Another poll with the Lib Dems trailing the Greens.
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Not sure it's feminism as much as reaching out for someone to blame...AndyJS said:Extreme feminism is clearly out of control in today's UK.
They celebrate the end of Page 3 but have nothing to say on FGM or forced marriages.TheScreamingEagles said:Someone tell me this is a spoof.
Page 3 helped create the Jimmy Savile era
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B756xXHCcAASQtp.jpg
instead of widely-held culturally important views, for which everyone is responsible, it's supposed to be the few leading the nation like sheep.0
