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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m now betting that Cameron will not appear in any leaders’ debate
Yesterday I spent several hours in Westminster talking to key figures and attending the Robert Hayward briefing (see previous post). One of the things I tried to get a sense of was the debates. Are these going to happen?
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However, if I were playing hardball to get the debates into the format I wanted, I'd make sure that the broadcasters knew that I was implacably opposed, so that they attempted a concession close. That would require making sure that everyone knew that I was implacably opposed, not giving a hint to anyone that I might take part on terms to my liking.
Good evening, everyone.
Plain packs seems a bit puritanical to me.
Cover up breasts, Mohammed, cigarettes, and don't be mean on Twitter or the rozzers might come for you. It's not great for general freedom of expression.
On-topic: as the debates are appalling, I'd be entirely happy if they didn't happen. It'd be weird to have them without the PM.
Incidentally, 'takink' should be 'taking'.
How does not debating Miliband fit into this exactly? I just don't see it.
And when you see a PMQs like today you can't help feeling my 11 year old son would wipe the floor with Ed.
And he knows it!
I think the lure of having the campaign narrative set by the press is Cameron's main objective in avoiding the debates rather than being beaten by Farage. We saw with the European Elections just gone how they relentlessly attacked UKIP and Labour.
Miliband is expected to turn up, gurn, trip over the set, and be as rubbish as possible short of soiling himself. If he's other than terrible, that confounds expectations and looks good.
Cameron is expected to kick Miliband's arse. A modest win would be an underperformance.
People think Miliband is weird. Some view him with contempt, some with pity. The debates are a chance for him to turn that around [or reinforce it, but if he reinforces it he hasn't lost anything].
UKIP pose a risk to the Conservative right flank. Farage won't be in power so he can promise a British moon on a British stick without having the worry of ever having to fulfil the promise.
No downside I can see, he did say before the last election that the debates weren't an essential part of a free democracy.
Now I think on it, he might have said they were essential?..
No matter, I am sure there is a video of his quotes on the subject extant, so the more dilligent will be able to verify which it was.
Damned puritans.
Really have you seen their recent articles about charter renewal and coverage...
Only overwhelming pressure of public opinion would make DC change his mind, and I can't see it increasing enough to force an about turn.
The debates don't add anything. Other than a lot of talking points. And we don't need any more of that.
http://news.sky.com/video/1407607/when-cameron-believed-in-debates
1990s levels of migration and bilateral agreements in the Swiss or Canadian manner are perfectly feasible things and not "a moon on a stick".
The media loves nothing more than talking about itself.
Once the campaign starts, if the debates are off it won't be in the news. The media aren't going to keep talking about the issue once it's been resolved - they will talk about the campaigning that is taking place.
You may have to post your age and sex before people decide whether to take that bet or not.
I didn't like the debates anyway. I thought they were crap. And the spin doctoring which followed was do banal and predictable.
I'd much prefer each leader to submit to an hour long grilling from Andrew Neill. Now that would be illuminating and something difficult to spin afterwards.
They failed to diagnose that it's a different party, with different problems, in a different time, that required different solutions.
Perhaps that's the fault line on the centre-right. Between those who were generally happy with Blair's government, and those who weren't.
I would have thought it was blindingly obvious that my post was addressing the issue of potential criticism of Cameron if there are no debates.
As an aside, the cover of Sir Edric's Temple features the eponymous chap smoking. If the puritans go much further it'll get banned.
Edited extra bit: that reminds me. A few years ago some censorious swine wanted to slap an 18 certificate on 101 Dalmatians. Not because of potential puppy slaughter, but because Cruella De Vil smoked.
... and would probably win.
Never understood how those books became so feted - it was like a whole generation of critics who'd never read Dumas or Scott and were amazed to see historical fiction.
I take the point about the BBC potentially being bullied (which is why you shouldn't have state-funded broadcasters or the weird TV poll tax equivalent) but an empty chair drama would be great entertainment. This doesn't have to look spiteful - say everybody is invited, then make a big last-minute drama about whether Cameron will show up. It doesn't matter if they know he won't - just talk like he might.
There was a Presidential debate in 1960, then the next one was in 1976,
I was sent one of THE oldest jokes, but it still cracks me up when I hear it...
....
A young Chinese couple gets married. She's a virgin. Truth be told, he is a virgin too, but she doesn't know that.
On their wedding night, she cowers naked under the sheets as her husband undresses in the darkness.
He climbs into bed next to her and tries to be reassuring.
'My darring,' he whispers, 'I know dis you firss time and you berry flighten. I promise you, I give you anyting you want, I do anyting - juss anyting you want. You juss ask. Whatchu want?' he says, trying to sound experienced and worldly, which he hopes will impress her.
A thoughtful silence follows and he waits patiently (and eagerly) for her request.
She eventually shyly whispers back,
- 'I want to try someting I have hear about from odda girls... Numbaa 69.'
More thoughtful silence from him. Eventually, in a puzzled tone he asks her.....
- 'You want...... Garlic Chicken wif special fried rice?
update - TSE got there first.
I am quite happy with plain packing myself. We have banned advertising and also shop displays. Banning branded packs are yet another overdue step towards a total ban. About time too for a product that kills half its users and financially ruins the rest.
It was about wanting a blow job at 3am because he couldnt sleep, being accused of being selfish so saying "how about a 69?"
"I aint fucking cooking this time in the morning"
After Ed's performance at PMQs today, Labour will be delighted there will be no debates.
Page 3 helped create the Jimmy Savile era
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B756xXHCcAASQtp.jpg
Just imagine if Toenails, Tom Bradby or Adam Boulton was told there would be no place for them on the PM's plane to Washington, Beijing or Moscow and they wouldn't be accredited for press calls etc. The TV companies would also not want to risk being tied up in an expensive court action with party lawyers.
Tonight Nicola Sturgeon has said her SNP MPs would be willing to vote on English only issues if she thinks it affects Scotland.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2U_0tuvxAiw
So Nigel, since you arrived on time for this debate, this is clear evidence of the Tories reducing immigration.
Or who was Douglas Carswell talking about when he said, UKIP should be less angry towards immigrants.
The political ads kind of wite themselves really?
And those lucky sods will get paid a fortune for it...money for old rope?
David Cameron - Here We Go Again
Nick Clegg - Don't Leave Me This Way
Ed Miliband - The Only Way Is Up
Nigel Farage - Rule Britannia
Should that prove to be the case then that will prove to be the end of the Union as we know it and will inevitably lead to the onset of an English Parliament to replace Westminster.
"I hope you don't find this condescending, which means, talking down to you"
The joke that got me into trouble with feminists was this one
"To all those feminists calling for a female Doctor in Doctor Who, have clearly misunderstood the point, he's a Doctor, not a nurse....No really, I love feminists, especially the fit sexy ones"
Is there any danger for the Tories / Cameron here?
What the fun thing would be, if it were leaked during the election campaign.
I repeat what I said yesterday: Labour's separate battles with the SNP/UKIP/Greens will determine the election.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-life/11359993/Page-3-helped-create-the-Jimmy-Savile-era.html
But Page 3 ended because of market forces rather than a ban. A triumph of consumerism.
That diagnosis was basically correct: it was essentially a policy problem. Blair correctly understood he needed to distance himself from the unions, shed the left-wing dogma, be visibly seen pro-aspiration, run a very tight media operation, and prepare for a reconciliation with the Liberal Democrats. Very successful in winning middle-England, even if disillusionment set in fast. But that's another story.
In the Tories case, the problem was (is) different. It's mainly a brand problem. Much of its policy on immigration, europe, crime and putting Britain first in foreign affairs remained popular. There *was* a policy problem with the public services - that the Tories didn't care about the NHS, or Education, for instance - and that bit the modernisers got correct.
However, that can be linked to the main problem. Which is the perceived motives, attitudes and behaviour of the Conservative party itself. The perception it was self-interested, elitist, contemptuous of others, disloyal internally, out-of-touch and only interested in the wealthy.
The behaviour of too many of its MPs was simply appalling. They reeked of entitlement, pomposity and arrogance, and, far too often, moral hypocrisy as well. It didn't help that they could also be downright bastards too.
I still think Dave debating alone with the Greens would be an amusing riposte but unlikely to happen.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2919664/Secret-file-detailing-unnatural-sexual-behaviour-Westminster-VIP-paedophile-scandal-80s-discovered-probably-seen-Margaret-Thatcher.html
Oh dear, does this mean the return of bigjohnowls and his little witicisms?
Anyway, heres mine for the UK in the last thirty years, after it's botched restoration job.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-30926084
Interesting ideas about UKIP sexual technique from her though.. is there something overtly chauvinistic about people who take sex backwards?
"Ukip is a party led by 'Neanderthal sexists', blasts Harman: Feminist Labour deputy leader says women should 'beware' of the party in provocative attack
Criticised senior Ukip women, saying party wanted to take sex 'backwards'
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2920641/Ukip-party-led-Neanderthal-sexists-blasts-Harman.html#ixzz3PUwT8Lol
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They celebrate the end of Page 3 but have nothing to say on FGM or forced marriages.
Over 5.5% 5/6
Under 5.5% 5/6
instead of widely-held culturally important views, for which everyone is responsible, it's supposed to be the few leading the nation like sheep.