At 100/1, Katie Lam has the makings of a good bet for next Tory leader. That’s with William Hill, but I’m hoping other bookies may offer bigger
She speaks eloquently and firmly on immigration, I think she will be a star
Katie Lam has been an MP for less than a year. She might be a future leader but the bet is on the next leader.
Katie Lam is going for the Margaret Thatcher look. Should help her win the nostalgia vote amongst what remains of the selectorate. Anyhow there's a good chance of Reform collapsing before or while they are elected. Lam would be in a good place to pick up the pieces.
Interesting. I think she protests too much. Don't be obsessed by Thatcher but actually she was completely right. She was half a century ago however, so you need someone new. [Who might that be?]
Jenners is inhabiting the same online right wing angertainment closed eco-system as Kemi and Lunchtime O'Booze.
Normal people don't give a fuck about it.
I'm not sure the current opinion polls would back up that claim about a right wing angertainment ecosystem - unless you don't include Reform as part of it?
The European Union, which was formed for the primary purpose of taking advantage of the United States on TRADE, has been very difficult to deal with. Their powerful Trade Barriers, Vat Taxes, ridiculous Corporate Penalties, Non-Monetary Trade Barriers, Monetary Manipulations, unfair and unjustified lawsuits against Americans Companies, and more, have led to a Trade Deficit with the U.S. of more than $250,000,000 a year, a number which is totally unacceptable. Our discussions with them are going nowhere! Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% Tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025. There is no Tariff if the product is built or manufactured in the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
The average gap between LD and Tory in the last 10 polls is 3.3 points. In the last three polls it is 1.3 points.
If (wait and see) this is a trend, crossover happens in the next few weeks. My feeling is this will happen. If it gets established, it is a further shift in reality.
Not long ago I was wondering if the combined Lab/Con vote would go below 50. In this most recent poll it is 39. The speed of things is remarkable. In the July 2024 GE Lab/Con was 59.
I'd still put money on the next GE result looking nothing like this at all.
In fact my gut says it'll be LAB and CON fighting it out again with REF and LD vying for 3rd place.
Why do I feel that? I have no idea. But I thought I'd post it here so that I can remind everyone of my genius in 2028/29 when I am proved right*.
(*Noting that probably no one will be able to find this post when/if Reform win a landslide with the LDs as opposition.)
It's all guesswork, but fascinating. FWIW I think the Tory position is close to beyond rescue; they have no spent too long with second rate MPs, terrible communication, losing their core support in multiple directions and not having any sort of USP. Boris in charge would give them a temporary respite but not for long. Otherwise it needs a political genius to emerge, and no-one can name one.
Labour are not close to extinction even though their polling is only a few points ahead of the Tories. But they will be if they carry on being this bad in narrative and communications for a year or two. Their less thoughtful supporters have no idea what they can be up to as they have no thought for the constraints of reality. But they are losing the more thoughtful ones too simply by being so crass and clunky and untruthful.
Conclusion: the next election will be probably Lab/LD v Reform. But LD v Reform is not impossible.
You also have to factor in the possibility of a Reform UK implosion.
Their 2 big challenges are a policy platform and a credible team/organisation.
I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone's that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else. If that is not the case, a Tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S. Thank your for your attention to this matter!
It's really not going to matter much to Apple as all the competitor phones are made outside the US, except the Purism Librem 5, which costs $2,000.
The Chagos deal is genuinely appalling. Even the Economist despairs of the naivety and foolishness
But just as importantly it can be used, day after day, to break Starmer. To expose him as a two tier hypocrite, a quisling, a grifter, and an imbecile
Alongside much else, it will undo him
Do you really think people care about a place they've only vaguely heard of? This won't register on the political preference to vote decision tree - people are voting for reasons slightly closer to home.
SHOW ME THE MONEY
At a time the government is pleading total poverty, it finds hundreds of millions a year to pay a faraway country so that they can take what is already ours
That’s the breakdown. Even a cretin can see the grotesqueness of the spectacle
It's the defence budget mate. As will be pointed out to the hard of thinking it's cheaper and more capable than an aircraft carrier.
I know that *you* are exorcised by it. Get that. I'm just pointing out that most voters don't give a fuck. If we'd just given away Gibraltar and there were loads of Brit looking / sounding people there angry then it would be a problem. As it is, this is an airbase.
Wait til they find out that we spend similar money every year on our Cypriot bases...
Where you compare it to cost of an aircraft carrier, are you in favour of UK having air craft carriers? It’s a good use of defence budget?
selling the deal at the podium Starmer said it gives the UK and the US access to "vital capabilities". "The strategic location of this base is of the utmost importance", Starmer says, adding "the base is right at the base of our security". senior British Army officer Gen James Hockenhull added. the base's location provides "immense global reach", making it a "unique asset" for British security. "I welcome the long-term certainty that this treaty brings. It will help the British Armed Forces in our efforts to support stability abroad and security at home,"
What are you saying defence and security UK gets from this base and 100M a year from our defence budget, that’s not also pooled with other allies - US and India, and where to stop naming them, Australia, Canada, New Zealand etc? What do we actually get that justifies us holding the lease and UK Tax payers paying it, or us holding the sovereignty and increasing reputational and legal damage if taking that route?
Those ex British Generals who said give up sovereignty, don’t sign a lease, let US and India deal and pay from here, spend our defence money on ourselves, don’t they have a strong argument?
The obvious elephant in the room with this deal, is keeping Chagos sovereignty or paying the lease, gives UK absolutely nothing in defence and security, that isn’t also pooled with others.
The problems caused by piling through junctions. This one is mainly the junction itself.
My new video. The junction at Bounds Green just now was INSANE! Note a car and then a truck go through here on a green man, then the traffic gets stuck. These two people get stuck in the middle. … 1/3
Then loads more cars get stuck in the middle on a green man. Sound up for my reaction and swears … 2/3
It will take Apple years to move production of iphones to US even if it can actually be done and they can find the workers with the skill and the aptitude and work ethic.
A stark reminder that the populist right thinks working class people who vote for them are fools: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAF8vJQeMmQ Expect similar from Farage if he ever becomes PM.
The average gap between LD and Tory in the last 10 polls is 3.3 points. In the last three polls it is 1.3 points.
If (wait and see) this is a trend, crossover happens in the next few weeks. My feeling is this will happen. If it gets established, it is a further shift in reality.
Not long ago I was wondering if the combined Lab/Con vote would go below 50. In this most recent poll it is 39. The speed of things is remarkable. In the July 2024 GE Lab/Con was 59.
I'd still put money on the next GE result looking nothing like this at all.
In fact my gut says it'll be LAB and CON fighting it out again with REF and LD vying for 3rd place.
Why do I feel that? I have no idea. But I thought I'd post it here so that I can remind everyone of my genius in 2028/29 when I am proved right*.
(*Noting that probably no one will be able to find this post when/if Reform win a landslide with the LDs as opposition.)
It's all guesswork, but fascinating. FWIW I think the Tory position is close to beyond rescue; they have no spent too long with second rate MPs, terrible communication, losing their core support in multiple directions and not having any sort of USP. Boris in charge would give them a temporary respite but not for long. Otherwise it needs a political genius to emerge, and no-one can name one.
Labour are not close to extinction even though their polling is only a few points ahead of the Tories. But they will be if they carry on being this bad in narrative and communications for a year or two. Their less thoughtful supporters have no idea what they can be up to as they have no thought for the constraints of reality. But they are losing the more thoughtful ones too simply by being so crass and clunky and untruthful.
Conclusion: the next election will be probably Lab/LD v Reform. But LD v Reform is not impossible.
The "Labour vs X" narrative has got to survive four years of no money and no obvious talent. The few distinctive policies they are following all have the chance of going horribly wrong - any or all of a Spain-style electricity grid failure, inflation high, public sector strikes, HNW tax flight, PISA rankings falling etc are all significant possibilities.
The average gap between LD and Tory in the last 10 polls is 3.3 points. In the last three polls it is 1.3 points.
If (wait and see) this is a trend, crossover happens in the next few weeks. My feeling is this will happen. If it gets established, it is a further shift in reality.
Not long ago I was wondering if the combined Lab/Con vote would go below 50. In this most recent poll it is 39. The speed of things is remarkable. In the July 2024 GE Lab/Con was 59.
I'd still put money on the next GE result looking nothing like this at all.
In fact my gut says it'll be LAB and CON fighting it out again with REF and LD vying for 3rd place.
Why do I feel that? I have no idea. But I thought I'd post it here so that I can remind everyone of my genius in 2028/29 when I am proved right*.
(*Noting that probably no one will be able to find this post when/if Reform win a landslide with the LDs as opposition.)
It's all guesswork, but fascinating. FWIW I think the Tory position is close to beyond rescue; they have no spent too long with second rate MPs, terrible communication, losing their core support in multiple directions and not having any sort of USP. Boris in charge would give them a temporary respite but not for long. Otherwise it needs a political genius to emerge, and no-one can name one.
Labour are not close to extinction even though their polling is only a few points ahead of the Tories. But they will be if they carry on being this bad in narrative and communications for a year or two. Their less thoughtful supporters have no idea what they can be up to as they have no thought for the constraints of reality. But they are losing the more thoughtful ones too simply by being so crass and clunky and untruthful.
Conclusion: the next election will be probably Lab/LD v Reform. But LD v Reform is not impossible.
You also have to factor in the possibility of a Reform UK implosion.
Their 2 big challenges are a policy platform and a credible team/organisation.
Lab 32%, Con 18%, Reform 17%, Lib Dem 16%, Green 12%,
I'd expect big gains for the Lib Dems and Greens in urban intellectual wards, in Haringey, Camden, Islington, parts of Southwark, Lambeth. I think the Greens will do well in Hackney.
I think that Reform will take Havering, win the Dagenham part of Barking & Dagenham, and at least achieve largest party status in Hillingdon, and Bexley.
Harrow & K & C are the only boroughs I'm certain the Conservatives will hold, but they must fancy their chances of regaining Westminster and Wandsworth. I think they'll retain at least largest party status in Bromley, and make big gains in Brent North. I'm not sure to what extent, Reform will blunt their chances in Enfield and Barnet.
In terms of seats, I'd hazard a guess of about Labour 900, Conservative 350, Lib Dem 300, Green 50, Reform 150.
It may be slick but Jenrick is completely wrong on his history. Chagos was a part of Mauritius for the entire period of British ownership of that island, having previously obtained Mauritius including Chagos as a single package from France. Facts matter if you are trying to make the historical claim
At 100/1, Katie Lam has the makings of a good bet for next Tory leader. That’s with William Hill, but I’m hoping other bookies may offer bigger
She speaks eloquently and firmly on immigration, I think she will be a star
Katie Lam has been an MP for less than a year. She might be a future leader but the bet is on the next leader.
Katie Lam is going for the Margaret Thatcher look. Should help her win the nostalgia vote amongst what remains of the selectorate. Anyhow there's a good chance of Reform collapsing before or while they are elected. Lam would be in a good place to pick up the pieces.
Interesting. I think she protests too much. Don't be obsessed by Thatcher but actually she was completely right. She was half a century ago however, so you need someone new. [Who might that be?]
She would probably get more cut-through and cred with the public if she pushed forward her part in the musical duo “The Crazy Coqs” than cosplaying Maggie.
It may be slick but Jenrick is completely wrong on his history. Chagos was a part of Mauritius for the entire period of British ownership of that island, having previously obtained Mauritius including Chagos as a single package from France. Facts matter if you are trying to make the historical claim
I understand it has been widely accepted on the right now that if you repeat a claim at least five times, including once or more WITH CAPITAL letters, then it becomes an equivalent fact to be rolled out ad NAUSEUM.
It may be slick but Jenrick is completely wrong on his history. Chagos was a part of Mauritius for the entire period of British ownership of that island, having previously obtained Mauritius including Chagos as a single package from France. Facts matter if you are trying to make the historical claim
There was never any such thing as “Mauritius” until the imperial era. The island was uninhabited. So there was no “Mauritius” for Diego Garcia to “belong to”. And Diego Garcia is about 300,000 miles from Mauritius. The whole thing is concocted by anti western governments to embarrass the UK and the west and idiot Woke lawyers in the west have eagerly supported this
Facts matter if you are trying to make historical claims
The average gap between LD and Tory in the last 10 polls is 3.3 points. In the last three polls it is 1.3 points.
If (wait and see) this is a trend, crossover happens in the next few weeks. My feeling is this will happen. If it gets established, it is a further shift in reality.
Not long ago I was wondering if the combined Lab/Con vote would go below 50. In this most recent poll it is 39. The speed of things is remarkable. In the July 2024 GE Lab/Con was 59.
Starmer's island of strangers speech also seems to have added another 2% to Reform and lost Labour a similar amount, moving Reform's ceiling from 28% to 30%. The Lib Dems are coming up through the middle, without many noticing it.
The Tories seem to be following the idea that you go bankrupt in two ways, first quite slowly, then very quickly. The educated middle class have been trickling away from the Conservatives for some time, could this year be the year they abandon the Tories forever? Watching Liberal Democrats taking control of previously rock solid Tory shires, I cannot help but notice that many of these new councillors look like the kind of councillors- pragmatic and thoughtful- that the Tories used to put up. These are kind of one nation people that the Tory leadership have been deriding ever since Brexit.
They certainly seem to be getting their own back now. As Ed Davey speaks out for a more robust defence policy, for example, he is attracting a lot of attention from previously solidly Conservative voters. If the Lib Dems can catch the wind in economic policy, then they really could break out above 100 MPs next time.
Lab 32%, Con 18%, Reform 17%, Lib Dem 16%, Green 12%,
I'd expect big gains for the Lib Dems and Greens in urban intellectual wards, in Haringey, Camden, Islington, parts of Southwark, Lambeth. I think the Greens will do well in Hackney.
I think that Reform will take Havering, win the Dagenham part of Barking & Dagenham, and at least achieve largest party status in Hillingdon, and Bexley.
Harrow & K & C are the only boroughs I'm certain the Conservatives will hold, but they must fancy their chances of regaining Westminster and Wandsworth. I think they'll retain at least largest party status in Bromley, and make big gains in Brent North. I'm not sure to what extent, Reform will blunt their chances in Enfield and Barnet.
In terms of seats, I'd hazard a guess of about Labour 900, Conservative 350, Lib Dem 300, Green 50, Reform 150.
Thnaks for that. The other factor is or are the various Independent (pro-Palestine) groups in Newham, Tower Hamlets and Redbridge. Respect in 2005 won half a dozen seats from Labour but I could imagine the Newham Independents sweeping the strongly Muslim Wards.
On that basis I think your Labour number might be a bit high.
The average gap between LD and Tory in the last 10 polls is 3.3 points. In the last three polls it is 1.3 points.
If (wait and see) this is a trend, crossover happens in the next few weeks. My feeling is this will happen. If it gets established, it is a further shift in reality.
Not long ago I was wondering if the combined Lab/Con vote would go below 50. In this most recent poll it is 39. The speed of things is remarkable. In the July 2024 GE Lab/Con was 59.
Starmer's island of strangers speech also seems to have added another 2% to Reform and lost Labour a similar amount, moving Reform's ceiling from 28% to 30%. The Lib Dems are coming up through the middle, without many noticing it.
The Tories seem to be following the idea that you go bankrupt in two ways, first quite slowly, then very quickly. The educated middle class have been trickling away from the Conservatives for some time, could this year be the year they abandon the Tories forever? Watching Liberal Democrats taking control of previously rock solid Tory shires, I cannot help but notice that many of these new councillors look like the kind of councillors- pragmatic and thoughtful- that the Tories used to put up. These are kind of one nation people that the Tory leadership have been deriding ever since Brexit.
They certainly seem to be getting their own back now. As Ed Davey speaks out for a more robust defence policy, for example, he is attracting a lot of attention from previously solidly Conservative voters. If the Lib Dems can catch the wind in economic policy, then they really could break out above 100 MPs next time.
Their problem is Scotland. Wales and Northern England and in those terms they are unlikely to achieve much more than 100 seats
Good accommodation and afternoon tea in the Orangery is a delight.
Ullswater is nowhere near as busy as Windermere and if you want a bit of tranquillity to calm your nerves, I can thoroughly recommend one of the seats on the terrace overlooking the lake.
It may be slick but Jenrick is completely wrong on his history. Chagos was a part of Mauritius for the entire period of British ownership of that island, having previously obtained Mauritius including Chagos as a single package from France. Facts matter if you are trying to make the historical claim
I understand it has been widely accepted on the right now that if you repeat a claim at least five times, including once or more WITH CAPITAL letters, then it becomes an equivalent fact to be rolled out ad NAUSEUM.
I’m not sure. Are you saying if Jenrick or Farage said you can get VD from toilet seats, and kept repeating it, millions of people would believe it?
It will take Apple years to move production of iphones to US even if it can actually be done and they can find the workers with the skill and the aptitude and work ethic.
It will take Apple years to move production of iphones to US even if it can actually be done and they can find the workers with the skill and the aptitude and work ethic.
There are plenty of skilled workers in the US. Don’t fall for the racist tropes - anymore than Oriental Lasitude or All Africans Are Lazy.
The thing is that skilled workers expect a higher wage in the US.
So either they are working in very high value added (see satellites and other hi-tech) or they are working in very very automated factories. See a video of a modern car factory for that.
Most of the workers at Foxconn etc. are *not* highly skilled. Just cheap(ish). Think meat robots, really. And the bigger problem is the localised supply chains for components.
To make an iPhone at a reasonable cost in the US would require
1) a redesign of the phone for near total automation of the manufacturing process. 2) designing and building the new, almost totally automated factory. 3) doing the same for all the components
I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone's that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else. If that is not the case, a Tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S. Thank your for your attention to this matter!
The funny thing about this is that the tariff of 25% might well be cheaper than trying to onshore production, not just assembly.
My rant isn't about Chagos but Lidl - no, not another part of the old Empire we're paying someone else to take on...
Our local Lidl has decided to "take action" against shoplifting which, it appears, with security and barcode gates, is still a problem.
They've increased the number of self-service tills from 20 to 24 but the new ones are much smaller so if there's two or three of you with a basket you're basically blocking not only the area around you but opposite as well.
Now, you have (officially) to scan your receipt to get out of the self-service area. What was happening was the shoplifters were taking what they want, standing patiently in the queue to be called forward and then walking through, out the other side and out the store past the security guard who in my view couldn't win a 100m race against an arthritic snail.
Lidl's solution would be fine except of course the gate to allow you out of the self service area stays open so long the entire Reform Parliamentary Party could get through it before it closes so that won't stop the shoplifting at busy times. Lidl have probably spent thousands on this but it's a waste and actually makes the shopping experience worse. Kudos.
Transport for London are trying new stronger gates at East Ham station - they've obviously worked out the main evaders are aged and infirm Lidl security guards and against them the new gates are superb. My experience is evaders are much younger and still able to push their way through.
Regarding the parties at the next GE, I think the Tories probably only really have one more roll of the dice or one black swan event to stand a chance of recovery. I do think that they are going to wither and decline unless something very significant happens.
The reason I say this is because a sustained position of sitting behind Reform in the polls will aid in the transfer of core voters over to Reform. This process has already started, and it looks to have sped up after the locals. And I know that not all Tories are going to vote Reform, but for those “of the right” who want to back a winner and feel instinctively comfortable voting for a right wing party with a chance of power, it will be becoming harder to justify remaining with a party that sits in the high teens in the polls. Unless something stops this osmosis, it is hard to see those votes trickling back.
The roll of the dice is a change of leader. The current situation is not all Badenoch’s fault, but it seems very unlikely she can move on from the last government in a meaningful and impactful way. Ideally they could do with someone not tied to the weight of the past government, but that person is very challenging to find in a very limited MP pool, if they even exist.
The black swan event is Reform imploding. This is, id suggest, the Tories’ best hope. Farage has a history of falling out with people, and not being particularly well disciplined.
I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone's that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else. If that is not the case, a Tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S. Thank your for your attention to this matter!
The funny thing about this is that the tariff of 25% might well be cheaper than trying to onshore production, not just assembly.
Which suggests that the tariff level would be about right.
We're heading back to the loony tunes again. The bond markets will not be pleased. Might need to brace for a busy summer.
At some point it surely becomes more sensible to think about no longer trading with the US and what that would entail.
Several companies are doing just that. It’ll affect FDI. The question is how.
At the moment if you’re trading into the US and affected by tariffs in a way you can’t fully pass on, you have a choice to make between abandoning the market, moving origin to the US, or attempting to swallow some cost efficiencies to stay above water. Moving to US origin is only feasible in certain cases.
Same with the threatened retaliatory measures on international tax, which will have a bigger overall effect on the UK.
Given the Trump tweets just now expect huge shipments of goods into the US in the next few days ahead of the deadline. And this time the EU needs to wake up and actually announce retaliations early rather than spending a month navel gazing about them.
I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone's that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else. If that is not the case, a Tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S. Thank your for your attention to this matter!
The funny thing about this is that the tariff of 25% might well be cheaper than trying to onshore production, not just assembly.
Which suggests that the tariff level would be about right.
Only if by "right" you think people buying phones need to pay more taxes.
Can’t say what the fuss is about Aira Force. It’s a bloody trickle down a hill
Maybe I’ve been spoiled - having flown in helicopters over Victoria Falls. And also over the famous calls of the Kimberley Coast. And also over the Iguaza Falls from the Brazilian AND Argentinian sides
However - Ullswater in bright May sun? The Lakes really are exquisite - a near-perfect landscape of earth and wood and rock and water. Shame about the tourists
Good accommodation and afternoon tea in the Orangery is a delight.
Ullswater is nowhere near as busy as Windermere and if you want a bit of tranquillity to calm your nerves, I can thoroughly recommend one of the seats on the terrace overlooking the lake.
Or you could rush up nearby Helvelyn for the view?
Also, why the fuck is anyone defending Starmer on this
It’s a terrible deal. Everyone agrees it’s a terrible deal. From Labour MPs to the economist to the FT to the chagossians themselves
It’s a terrible deal. It would be a terrible deal if Jesus made it. Or my mum. Or the late Jerry Garcia of the Grateful Dead
Starmer did a stupid bad thing. That’s it. There is no dispute here
That’s reassuring. 👍🏻
I was beginning to get concerned the Conservative front bench may have sealed themselves in on the wrong side of this one, as it plays out. 😕
If you are that outraged and sure of yourself as the Conservative Front Bench is on this, then you must have a policy that rips the stupid bad thing up, to do something that’s better.
It will take Apple years to move production of iphones to US even if it can actually be done and they can find the workers with the skill and the aptitude and work ethic.
It will take Apple years to move production of iphones to US even if it can actually be done and they can find the workers with the skill and the aptitude and work ethic.
There are plenty of skilled workers in the US. Don’t fall for the racist tropes - anymore than Oriental Lasitude or All Africans Are Lazy.
The thing is that skilled workers expect a higher wage in the US.
So either they are working in very high value added (see satellites and other hi-tech) or they are working in very very automated factories. See a video of a modern car factory for that.
Most of the workers at Foxconn etc. are *not* highly skilled. Just cheap(ish). Think meat robots, really. And the bigger problem is the localised supply chains for components.
To make an iPhone at a reasonable cost in the US would require
1) a redesign of the phone for near total automation of the manufacturing process. 2) designing and building the new, almost totally automated factory. 3) doing the same for all the components
From what I'm told (by one of my sons, who's involved with something similar) US QC isn't up to other places standards either.
My rant isn't about Chagos but Lidl - no, not another part of the old Empire we're paying someone else to take on...
Our local Lidl has decided to "take action" against shoplifting which, it appears, with security and barcode gates, is still a problem.
They've increased the number of self-service tills from 20 to 24 but the new ones are much smaller so if there's two or three of you with a basket you're basically blocking not only the area around you but opposite as well.
Now, you have (officially) to scan your receipt to get out of the self-service area. What was happening was the shoplifters were taking what they want, standing patiently in the queue to be called forward and then walking through, out the other side and out the store past the security guard who in my view couldn't win a 100m race against an arthritic snail.
Lidl's solution would be fine except of course the gate to allow you out of the self service area stays open so long the entire Reform Parliamentary Party could get through it before it closes so that won't stop the shoplifting at busy times. Lidl have probably spent thousands on this but it's a waste and actually makes the shopping experience worse. Kudos.
Transport for London are trying new stronger gates at East Ham station - they've obviously worked out the main evaders are aged and infirm Lidl security guards and against them the new gates are superb. My experience is evaders are much younger and still able to push their way through.
My rant isn't about Chagos but Lidl - no, not another part of the old Empire we're paying someone else to take on...
Our local Lidl has decided to "take action" against shoplifting which, it appears, with security and barcode gates, is still a problem.
They've increased the number of self-service tills from 20 to 24 but the new ones are much smaller so if there's two or three of you with a basket you're basically blocking not only the area around you but opposite as well.
Now, you have (officially) to scan your receipt to get out of the self-service area. What was happening was the shoplifters were taking what they want, standing patiently in the queue to be called forward and then walking through, out the other side and out the store past the security guard who in my view couldn't win a 100m race against an arthritic snail.
Lidl's solution would be fine except of course the gate to allow you out of the self service area stays open so long the entire Reform Parliamentary Party could get through it before it closes so that won't stop the shoplifting at busy times. Lidl have probably spent thousands on this but it's a waste and actually makes the shopping experience worse. Kudos.
Transport for London are trying new stronger gates at East Ham station - they've obviously worked out the main evaders are aged and infirm Lidl security guards and against them the new gates are superb. My experience is evaders are much younger and still able to push their way through.
Also, why the fuck is anyone defending Starmer on this
It’s a terrible deal. Everyone agrees it’s a terrible deal. From Labour MPs to the economist to the FT to the chagossians themselves
It’s a terrible deal. It would be a terrible deal if Jesus made it. Or my mum. Or the late Jerry Garcia of the Grateful Dead
Starmer did a stupid bad thing. That’s it. There is no dispute here
That’s reassuring. 👍🏻
I was beginning to get concerned the Conservative front bench may have sealed themselves in on the wrong side of this one, as it plays out. 😕
If you are that outraged and sure of yourself as the Conservative Front Bench is on this, then you must have a policy that rips the stupid bad thing up, to do something that’s better.
They could give a cast iron guarantee about it all.
It may be slick but Jenrick is completely wrong on his history. Chagos was a part of Mauritius for the entire period of British ownership of that island, having previously obtained Mauritius including Chagos as a single package from France. Facts matter if you are trying to make the historical claim
I understand it has been widely accepted on the right now that if you repeat a claim at least five times, including once or more WITH CAPITAL letters, then it becomes an equivalent fact to be rolled out ad NAUSEUM.
I’m not sure. Are you saying if Jenrick or Farage said you can get VD from toilet seats, and kept repeating it, millions of people would believe it?
Regarding the parties at the next GE, I think the Tories probably only really have one more roll of the dice or one black swan event to stand a chance of recovery. I do think that they are going to wither and decline unless something very significant happens.
The reason I say this is because a sustained position of sitting behind Reform in the polls will aid in the transfer of core voters over to Reform. This process has already started, and it looks to have sped up after the locals. And I know that not all Tories are going to vote Reform, but for those “of the right” who want to back a winner and feel instinctively comfortable voting for a right wing party with a chance of power, it will be becoming harder to justify remaining with a party that sits in the high teens in the polls. Unless something stops this osmosis, it is hard to see those votes trickling back.
The roll of the dice is a change of leader. The current situation is not all Badenoch’s fault, but it seems very unlikely she can move on from the last government in a meaningful and impactful way. Ideally they could do with someone not tied to the weight of the past government, but that person is very challenging to find in a very limited MP pool, if they even exist.
The black swan event is Reform imploding. This is, id suggest, the Tories’ best hope. Farage has a history of falling out with people, and not being particularly well disciplined.
Reform imploding is more of a known unknown, than a black swan.
We know there’s a non-trivial risk that it will happen, but we don’t know if it will, or when it will.
If it happened, then the Conservatives would be up to 30% +, and back in the game.
If not, they’ll go the way of Les Republicans, the Dutch Christian Democrats, the Whigs, and Never Trump Republicans.
Can’t say what the fuss is about Aira Force. It’s a bloody trickle down a hill
Maybe I’ve been spoiled - having flown in helicopters over Victoria Falls. And also over the famous calls of the Kimberley Coast. And also over the Iguaza Falls from the Brazilian AND Argentinian sides
However - Ullswater in bright May sun? The Lakes really are exquisite - a near-perfect landscape of earth and wood and rock and water. Shame about the tourists
Yeah, in retrospect suggesting a watetfall after the driest Spring the North has ever seen maybe wasn't inspired. Glad you enjoyed Ullswater though.
It’s going to be 4 years of this: he puts tariffs up, he takes them down, up, down, whenever he isn’t distracted by some other shiny thing.
Perhaps he can be set up with a deeply immersive computer game to play. One that's so good he'll think it's real.
Reginald Barclay: "Computer..... end programme."
*nothing* - Picks up box with programme running in it, but this time it's Trump not Moriaty..... The world would be a much better place.
Chuck Putin, Xi and Netanyahu in as well as we've got a winner.....
That'd be great. Or - maybe even better - something like one of my favourite films. An only-for-tv constructed world where the unwitting protagonist is not an insurance salesman but the president of the USA. The Trump Show.
This is the essence of what's happening with him anyway, so let's take it to its logical conclusion. We go about our daily lives, safe in the knowledge there's a proper person in charge of America, and every so often we turn on the box to see what "Donald" is getting up to.
Regarding the parties at the next GE, I think the Tories probably only really have one more roll of the dice or one black swan event to stand a chance of recovery. I do think that they are going to wither and decline unless something very significant happens.
The reason I say this is because a sustained position of sitting behind Reform in the polls will aid in the transfer of core voters over to Reform. This process has already started, and it looks to have sped up after the locals. And I know that not all Tories are going to vote Reform, but for those “of the right” who want to back a winner and feel instinctively comfortable voting for a right wing party with a chance of power, it will be becoming harder to justify remaining with a party that sits in the high teens in the polls. Unless something stops this osmosis, it is hard to see those votes trickling back.
The roll of the dice is a change of leader. The current situation is not all Badenoch’s fault, but it seems very unlikely she can move on from the last government in a meaningful and impactful way. Ideally they could do with someone not tied to the weight of the past government, but that person is very challenging to find in a very limited MP pool, if they even exist.
The black swan event is Reform imploding. This is, id suggest, the Tories’ best hope. Farage has a history of falling out with people, and not being particularly well disciplined.
Reform imploding is more of a known unknown, than a black swan.
We know there’s a non-trivial risk that it will happen, but we don’t know if it will, or when it will.
If it happened, then the Conservatives would be up to 30% +, and back in the game.
If not, they’ll go the way of Les Republicans, the Dutch Christian Democrats, the Whigs, and Never Trump Republicans.
Reform is already Farage Party v3. If they implode - lets say are put into significant financial difficulties - they'll just get replaced by Farage Party v4.
People Want Change. They're not going to go back to the Tories.
Lab 32%, Con 18%, Reform 17%, Lib Dem 16%, Green 12%,
I'd expect big gains for the Lib Dems and Greens in urban intellectual wards, in Haringey, Camden, Islington, parts of Southwark, Lambeth. I think the Greens will do well in Hackney.
I think that Reform will take Havering, win the Dagenham part of Barking & Dagenham, and at least achieve largest party status in Hillingdon, and Bexley.
Harrow & K & C are the only boroughs I'm certain the Conservatives will hold, but they must fancy their chances of regaining Westminster and Wandsworth. I think they'll retain at least largest party status in Bromley, and make big gains in Brent North. I'm not sure to what extent, Reform will blunt their chances in Enfield and Barnet.
In terms of seats, I'd hazard a guess of about Labour 900, Conservative 350, Lib Dem 300, Green 50, Reform 150.
Havering is going to be an interesting test. UKIP did well in 2014 (and would have done better with fuller slates in key wards), but not that well. They got councillors elected in 4 wards out of 18, and came close in quite a few others. (Besides, the Independent Residents of Rainham were pretty much of the 'Farage is too soft' tenency.)
The unkown is how the battle between Reform and Residents Associations goes. In some ways, they have fished in the same NOTA pond, except that RAs are naicer. However, Residents have run the council since the last election; it's not obvious that they have enjoyed the experience. (Havering Council is essentially broke and getting broker.) It's certainly possible to put a winning map together for Reform, but it's not that simple.
Regarding the parties at the next GE, I think the Tories probably only really have one more roll of the dice or one black swan event to stand a chance of recovery. I do think that they are going to wither and decline unless something very significant happens.
The reason I say this is because a sustained position of sitting behind Reform in the polls will aid in the transfer of core voters over to Reform. This process has already started, and it looks to have sped up after the locals. And I know that not all Tories are going to vote Reform, but for those “of the right” who want to back a winner and feel instinctively comfortable voting for a right wing party with a chance of power, it will be becoming harder to justify remaining with a party that sits in the high teens in the polls. Unless something stops this osmosis, it is hard to see those votes trickling back.
The roll of the dice is a change of leader. The current situation is not all Badenoch’s fault, but it seems very unlikely she can move on from the last government in a meaningful and impactful way. Ideally they could do with someone not tied to the weight of the past government, but that person is very challenging to find in a very limited MP pool, if they even exist.
The black swan event is Reform imploding. This is, id suggest, the Tories’ best hope. Farage has a history of falling out with people, and not being particularly well disciplined.
Reform imploding is more of a known unknown, than a black swan.
We know there’s a non-trivial risk that it will happen, but we don’t know if it will, or when it will.
If it happened, then the Conservatives would be up to 30% +, and back in the game.
If not, they’ll go the way of Les Republicans, the Dutch Christian Democrats, the Whigs, and Never Trump Republicans.
Black swans are fairly common, there's one that does the rounds of our local ponds and lakes and seems to get on with the mute swans quite well. Maybe we need a new metaphor
The Chagos deal is genuinely appalling. Even the Economist despairs of the naivety and foolishness
But just as importantly it can be used, day after day, to break Starmer. To expose him as a two tier hypocrite, a quisling, a grifter, and an imbecile
Alongside much else, it will undo him
Do you really think people care about a place they've only vaguely heard of? This won't register on the political preference to vote decision tree - people are voting for reasons slightly closer to home.
He has just explained why people will care, do keep up.
I don’t really have any interest in, nor pretend to have read up on or understood the Chagos deal
But I do trust John Rentoul not to be a reactionary critic of Keir Starmer. I like to read him because I think he is quite balanced, and…
This is a deal that will weigh Starmer down for the rest of his time in politics. It is like Gordon Brown “selling the gold”. Actually, it is worse, because selling the gold was a sensible decision: the government should not be speculating in precious metals on behalf of citizens – it was simply bad luck that the price went up afterwards.
The Chagos deal, though, looks like a bad deal, and nothing Starmer can say can persuade people otherwise.
This month, the prime minister has secured four international deals. The trade deals with India, the US and the EU were triumphs in the national interest that will make us better off; but they will be overshadowed by an indefensible deal with Mauritius.
Lab 32%, Con 18%, Reform 17%, Lib Dem 16%, Green 12%,
I'd expect big gains for the Lib Dems and Greens in urban intellectual wards, in Haringey, Camden, Islington, parts of Southwark, Lambeth. I think the Greens will do well in Hackney.
I think that Reform will take Havering, win the Dagenham part of Barking & Dagenham, and at least achieve largest party status in Hillingdon, and Bexley.
Harrow & K & C are the only boroughs I'm certain the Conservatives will hold, but they must fancy their chances of regaining Westminster and Wandsworth. I think they'll retain at least largest party status in Bromley, and make big gains in Brent North. I'm not sure to what extent, Reform will blunt their chances in Enfield and Barnet.
In terms of seats, I'd hazard a guess of about Labour 900, Conservative 350, Lib Dem 300, Green 50, Reform 150.
Havering is going to be an interesting test. UKIP did well in 2014 (and would have done better with fuller slates in key wards), but not that well. They got councillors elected in 4 wards out of 18, and came close in quite a few others. (Besides, the Independent Residents of Rainham were pretty much of the 'Farage is too soft' tenency.)
The unkown is how the battle between Reform and Residents Associations goes. In some ways, they have fished in the same NOTA pond, except that RAs are naicer. However, Residents have run the council since the last election; it's not obvious that they have enjoyed the experience. (Havering Council is essentially broke and getting broker.) It's certainly possible to put a winning map together for Reform, but it's not that simple.
Pretty much every principal local authority is broke and getting broker.
The average gap between LD and Tory in the last 10 polls is 3.3 points. In the last three polls it is 1.3 points.
If (wait and see) this is a trend, crossover happens in the next few weeks. My feeling is this will happen. If it gets established, it is a further shift in reality.
Not long ago I was wondering if the combined Lab/Con vote would go below 50. In this most recent poll it is 39. The speed of things is remarkable. In the July 2024 GE Lab/Con was 59.
Starmer's island of strangers speech also seems to have added another 2% to Reform and lost Labour a similar amount, moving Reform's ceiling from 28% to 30%. The Lib Dems are coming up through the middle, without many noticing it.
The Tories seem to be following the idea that you go bankrupt in two ways, first quite slowly, then very quickly. The educated middle class have been trickling away from the Conservatives for some time, could this year be the year they abandon the Tories forever? Watching Liberal Democrats taking control of previously rock solid Tory shires, I cannot help but notice that many of these new councillors look like the kind of councillors- pragmatic and thoughtful- that the Tories used to put up. These are kind of one nation people that the Tory leadership have been deriding ever since Brexit.
They certainly seem to be getting their own back now. As Ed Davey speaks out for a more robust defence policy, for example, he is attracting a lot of attention from previously solidly Conservative voters. If the Lib Dems can catch the wind in economic policy, then they really could break out above 100 MPs next time.
I don't think their position is recoverable from here without some completely left field black swan like the emergence of a genius top lead them. I even doubt if an implosion of Reform would help them much.
I have voted for them for 50 years and they are not on the radar as a possible. At the moment I will vote for the party that can beat Reform, and if Reform implode I shall vote for the party that beat the Tories, as I did in 2024.
Regarding the parties at the next GE, I think the Tories probably only really have one more roll of the dice or one black swan event to stand a chance of recovery. I do think that they are going to wither and decline unless something very significant happens.
The reason I say this is because a sustained position of sitting behind Reform in the polls will aid in the transfer of core voters over to Reform. This process has already started, and it looks to have sped up after the locals. And I know that not all Tories are going to vote Reform, but for those “of the right” who want to back a winner and feel instinctively comfortable voting for a right wing party with a chance of power, it will be becoming harder to justify remaining with a party that sits in the high teens in the polls. Unless something stops this osmosis, it is hard to see those votes trickling back.
The roll of the dice is a change of leader. The current situation is not all Badenoch’s fault, but it seems very unlikely she can move on from the last government in a meaningful and impactful way. Ideally they could do with someone not tied to the weight of the past government, but that person is very challenging to find in a very limited MP pool, if they even exist.
The black swan event is Reform imploding. This is, id suggest, the Tories’ best hope. Farage has a history of falling out with people, and not being particularly well disciplined.
Reform imploding is more of a known unknown, than a black swan.
We know there’s a non-trivial risk that it will happen, but we don’t know if it will, or when it will.
If it happened, then the Conservatives would be up to 30% +, and back in the game.
If not, they’ll go the way of Les Republicans, the Dutch Christian Democrats, the Whigs, and Never Trump Republicans.
Black swans are fairly common, there's one that does the rounds of our local ponds and lakes and seems to get on with the mute swans quite well. Maybe we need a new metaphor
Regarding the parties at the next GE, I think the Tories probably only really have one more roll of the dice or one black swan event to stand a chance of recovery. I do think that they are going to wither and decline unless something very significant happens.
The reason I say this is because a sustained position of sitting behind Reform in the polls will aid in the transfer of core voters over to Reform. This process has already started, and it looks to have sped up after the locals. And I know that not all Tories are going to vote Reform, but for those “of the right” who want to back a winner and feel instinctively comfortable voting for a right wing party with a chance of power, it will be becoming harder to justify remaining with a party that sits in the high teens in the polls. Unless something stops this osmosis, it is hard to see those votes trickling back.
The roll of the dice is a change of leader. The current situation is not all Badenoch’s fault, but it seems very unlikely she can move on from the last government in a meaningful and impactful way. Ideally they could do with someone not tied to the weight of the past government, but that person is very challenging to find in a very limited MP pool, if they even exist.
The black swan event is Reform imploding. This is, id suggest, the Tories’ best hope. Farage has a history of falling out with people, and not being particularly well disciplined.
Reform imploding is more of a known unknown, than a black swan.
We know there’s a non-trivial risk that it will happen, but we don’t know if it will, or when it will.
If it happened, then the Conservatives would be up to 30% +, and back in the game.
If not, they’ll go the way of Les Republicans, the Dutch Christian Democrats, the Whigs, and Never Trump Republicans.
Black swans are fairly common, there's one that does the rounds of our local ponds and lakes and seems to get on with the mute swans quite well. Maybe we need a new metaphor
Good governance?
Presumably the idea is that a Black Swan event is one we can't conceive of, so there's no real way of describing it.
Even the pandemic wasn't a black swan event, we know they happen all the time, the only question was when and where will it start, and how serious will it be (I'd say, medium)
I don’t really have any interest in, nor pretend to have read up on or understood the Chagos deal
But I do trust John Rentoul not to be a reactionary critic of Keir Starmer. I like to read him because I think he is quite balanced, and…
This is a deal that will weigh Starmer down for the rest of his time in politics. It is like Gordon Brown “selling the gold”. Actually, it is worse, because selling the gold was a sensible decision: the government should not be speculating in precious metals on behalf of citizens – it was simply bad luck that the price went up afterwards.
The Chagos deal, though, looks like a bad deal, and nothing Starmer can say can persuade people otherwise.
This month, the prime minister has secured four international deals. The trade deals with India, the US and the EU were triumphs in the national interest that will make us better off; but they will be overshadowed by an indefensible deal with Mauritius.
I don’t really have any interest in, nor pretend to have read up on or understood the Chagos deal
But I do trust John Rentoul not to be a reactionary critic of Keir Starmer. I like to read him because I think he is quite balanced, and…
This is a deal that will weigh Starmer down for the rest of his time in politics. It is like Gordon Brown “selling the gold”. Actually, it is worse, because selling the gold was a sensible decision: the government should not be speculating in precious metals on behalf of citizens – it was simply bad luck that the price went up afterwards.
The Chagos deal, though, looks like a bad deal, and nothing Starmer can say can persuade people otherwise.
This month, the prime minister has secured four international deals. The trade deals with India, the US and the EU were triumphs in the national interest that will make us better off; but they will be overshadowed by an indefensible deal with Mauritius.
The problems caused by piling through junctions. This one is mainly the junction itself.
My new video. The junction at Bounds Green just now was INSANE! Note a car and then a truck go through here on a green man, then the traffic gets stuck. These two people get stuck in the middle. … 1/3
Then loads more cars get stuck in the middle on a green man. Sound up for my reaction and swears … 2/3
London's Ringway Network - the epitome of road schemes scuppered by the epitome of Nimbyism, back in the 1970s!
The Nimbies they could have dealt with. I think the real death blow to the Ringways scheme was the gigantic cost - once the Treasury came out against, it was never going to happen, especially after the 73-76 economic crisis.
Can’t say what the fuss is about Aira Force. It’s a bloody trickle down a hill
Maybe I’ve been spoiled - having flown in helicopters over Victoria Falls. And also over the famous calls of the Kimberley Coast. And also over the Iguaza Falls from the Brazilian AND Argentinian sides
However - Ullswater in bright May sun? The Lakes really are exquisite - a near-perfect landscape of earth and wood and rock and water. Shame about the tourists
Tourists are more or less avoidable in the Lake District at all times of year as long as you pick your starting point and route. The well known honey-pot bits are awful of course, but that's about 20% of the total area. Walk over to Trusmadoor, then up Meal Fell and to Great Sca Fell folloing the beck and back down over Longlands. You might meet a handful of people.
It's just like London. Avoid St Paul's Cathedral but drop into St Stephen Walbrook or St Magnus Martyr and soak up far more interesting places on your own.
And don't visit waterfalls after three months of no rainfall.
Footnote: if you have been visiting Shap as I think you mentioned, Trollope's 'Can You Forgive Her' is 800 pages of Shap inclusive bliss, including some interesting walk routes, including where Kate Vavasor has her arm broken.
I don’t really have any interest in, nor pretend to have read up on or understood the Chagos deal
But I do trust John Rentoul not to be a reactionary critic of Keir Starmer. I like to read him because I think he is quite balanced, and…
This is a deal that will weigh Starmer down for the rest of his time in politics. It is like Gordon Brown “selling the gold”. Actually, it is worse, because selling the gold was a sensible decision: the government should not be speculating in precious metals on behalf of citizens – it was simply bad luck that the price went up afterwards.
The Chagos deal, though, looks like a bad deal, and nothing Starmer can say can persuade people otherwise.
This month, the prime minister has secured four international deals. The trade deals with India, the US and the EU were triumphs in the national interest that will make us better off; but they will be overshadowed by an indefensible deal with Mauritius.
Ok, I can see that argument. By why the hell are we paying them to take it off our hands? That's the bit I just don't get. If it is for the base why isn't America paying for it instead of us? What are we getting for our money?
Like Trump's (attempted) grab of Ukraine's assets, the USA will maintain the generous sharing of US military hardware with us and protection provided over the last fifty years means we continue to owe them more than we are giving back.
Can’t say what the fuss is about Aira Force. It’s a bloody trickle down a hill
Maybe I’ve been spoiled - having flown in helicopters over Victoria Falls. And also over the famous calls of the Kimberley Coast. And also over the Iguaza Falls from the Brazilian AND Argentinian sides
However - Ullswater in bright May sun? The Lakes really are exquisite - a near-perfect landscape of earth and wood and rock and water. Shame about the tourists
Tourists are more or less avoidable in the Lake District at all times of year as long as you pick your starting point and route. The well known honey-pot bits are awful of course, but that's about 20% of the total area. Walk over to Trusmadoor, then up Meal Fell and to Great Sca Fell folloing the beck and back down over Longlands. You might meet a handful of people.
It's just like London. Avoid St Paul's Cathedral but drop into St Stephen Walbrook or St Magnus Martyr and soak up far more interesting places on your own.
And don't visit waterfalls after three months of no rainfall.
Footnote: if you have been visiting Shap as I think you mentioned, Trollope's 'Can You Forgive Her' is 800 pages of Shap inclusive bliss, including some interesting walk routes, including where Kate Vavasor has her arm broken.
That’s true the world over. Rick Steves tells people to go to Rome, Florence, Venice, the Cinque Terre, and Amalfi Coast. So avoid the crowds of clueless Americans, Chinese and Koreans, and go somewhere else in Italy.
I don’t really have any interest in, nor pretend to have read up on or understood the Chagos deal
But I do trust John Rentoul not to be a reactionary critic of Keir Starmer. I like to read him because I think he is quite balanced, and…
This is a deal that will weigh Starmer down for the rest of his time in politics. It is like Gordon Brown “selling the gold”. Actually, it is worse, because selling the gold was a sensible decision: the government should not be speculating in precious metals on behalf of citizens – it was simply bad luck that the price went up afterwards.
The Chagos deal, though, looks like a bad deal, and nothing Starmer can say can persuade people otherwise.
This month, the prime minister has secured four international deals. The trade deals with India, the US and the EU were triumphs in the national interest that will make us better off; but they will be overshadowed by an indefensible deal with Mauritius.
I'd say that people who take an interest in foreign affairs tend to have two questions, regardless of the niceties of international law.
1. Is it in the national interest? 2. Is it morally right?
1. Most people can't really see what the national interest is in doing this deal
2. Most people who are worried about the morality of it, are concerned for the Chagossians, who neither the US, the UK, nor Mauritius care about in the slightest.
Those who think in terms of historic wrongs, think that a wrong was committed to the inhabitants, not to Mauritius.
Can’t say what the fuss is about Aira Force. It’s a bloody trickle down a hill
Maybe I’ve been spoiled - having flown in helicopters over Victoria Falls. And also over the famous calls of the Kimberley Coast. And also over the Iguaza Falls from the Brazilian AND Argentinian sides
However - Ullswater in bright May sun? The Lakes really are exquisite - a near-perfect landscape of earth and wood and rock and water. Shame about the tourists
Tourists are more or less avoidable in the Lake District at all times of year as long as you pick your starting point and route. The well known honey-pot bits are awful of course, but that's about 20% of the total area. Walk over to Trusmadoor, then up Meal Fell and to Great Sca Fell folloing the beck and back down over Longlands. You might meet a handful of people.
It's just like London. Avoid St Paul's Cathedral but drop into St Stephen Walbrook or St Magnus Martyr and soak up far more interesting places on your own.
And don't visit waterfalls after three months of no rainfall.
Footnote: if you have been visiting Shap as I think you mentioned, Trollope's 'Can You Forgive Her' is 800 pages of Shap inclusive bliss, including some interesting walk routes, including where Kate Vavasor has her arm broken.
I am always rather amazed that once you get west of Hardknott Pass (the Scafell Pike start and finish hotspots aside) just quite how quiet and affordable everything becomes. Of course some of it is the roads and remoteness, but it is a very sharp change.
I don’t really have any interest in, nor pretend to have read up on or understood the Chagos deal
But I do trust John Rentoul not to be a reactionary critic of Keir Starmer. I like to read him because I think he is quite balanced, and…
This is a deal that will weigh Starmer down for the rest of his time in politics. It is like Gordon Brown “selling the gold”. Actually, it is worse, because selling the gold was a sensible decision: the government should not be speculating in precious metals on behalf of citizens – it was simply bad luck that the price went up afterwards.
The Chagos deal, though, looks like a bad deal, and nothing Starmer can say can persuade people otherwise.
This month, the prime minister has secured four international deals. The trade deals with India, the US and the EU were triumphs in the national interest that will make us better off; but they will be overshadowed by an indefensible deal with Mauritius.
The problems caused by piling through junctions. This one is mainly the junction itself.
My new video. The junction at Bounds Green just now was INSANE! Note a car and then a truck go through here on a green man, then the traffic gets stuck. These two people get stuck in the middle. … 1/3
Then loads more cars get stuck in the middle on a green man. Sound up for my reaction and swears … 2/3
London's Ringway Network - the epitome of road schemes scuppered by the epitome of Nimbyism, back in the 1970s!
The Nimbies they could have dealt with. I think the real death blow to the Ringways scheme was the gigantic cost - once the Treasury came out against, it was never going to happen, especially after the 73-76 economic crisis.
Not sure it was nimbyism as such. The Ringway network would have meant the destruction of hundreds of houses, rather than the odd playing field.
To make an iPhone at a reasonable cost in the US would require
1) a redesign of the phone for near total automation of the manufacturing process. 2) designing and building the new, almost totally automated factory. 3) doing the same for all the components
No way Tim Cook will go for any of that. He learned his trade from Steve Jobs, who found out the hard way why you don't manufacture in the US.
When Jobs set up NeXT, he spent a fortune building an advanced manufacturing plant in California to make his computers. But US-based manufacturing meant the computers were so expensive sales ended up being pitiful, driving NeXT out of the hardware game entirely.
I don’t really have any interest in, nor pretend to have read up on or understood the Chagos deal
But I do trust John Rentoul not to be a reactionary critic of Keir Starmer. I like to read him because I think he is quite balanced, and…
This is a deal that will weigh Starmer down for the rest of his time in politics. It is like Gordon Brown “selling the gold”. Actually, it is worse, because selling the gold was a sensible decision: the government should not be speculating in precious metals on behalf of citizens – it was simply bad luck that the price went up afterwards.
The Chagos deal, though, looks like a bad deal, and nothing Starmer can say can persuade people otherwise.
This month, the prime minister has secured four international deals. The trade deals with India, the US and the EU were triumphs in the national interest that will make us better off; but they will be overshadowed by an indefensible deal with Mauritius.
To make an iPhone at a reasonable cost in the US would require
1) a redesign of the phone for near total automation of the manufacturing process. 2) designing and building the new, almost totally automated factory. 3) doing the same for all the components
No way Tim Cook will go for any of that. He learned his trade from Steve Jobs, who found out the hard way why you don't manufacture in the US.
When Jobs set up NeXT, he spent a fortune building an advanced manufacturing plant in California to make his computers. But US-based manufacturing meant the computers were so expensive sales ended up being pitiful, driving NeXT out of the hardware game entirely.
Maybe a Trump trade policy instead of a Clinton trade policy would have made NeXT as success.
Lab 32%, Con 18%, Reform 17%, Lib Dem 16%, Green 12%,
I'd expect big gains for the Lib Dems and Greens in urban intellectual wards, in Haringey, Camden, Islington, parts of Southwark, Lambeth. I think the Greens will do well in Hackney.
I think that Reform will take Havering, win the Dagenham part of Barking & Dagenham, and at least achieve largest party status in Hillingdon, and Bexley.
Harrow & K & C are the only boroughs I'm certain the Conservatives will hold, but they must fancy their chances of regaining Westminster and Wandsworth. I think they'll retain at least largest party status in Bromley, and make big gains in Brent North. I'm not sure to what extent, Reform will blunt their chances in Enfield and Barnet.
In terms of seats, I'd hazard a guess of about Labour 900, Conservative 350, Lib Dem 300, Green 50, Reform 150.
Havering is going to be an interesting test. UKIP did well in 2014 (and would have done better with fuller slates in key wards), but not that well. They got councillors elected in 4 wards out of 18, and came close in quite a few others. (Besides, the Independent Residents of Rainham were pretty much of the 'Farage is too soft' tenency.)
The unkown is how the battle between Reform and Residents Associations goes. In some ways, they have fished in the same NOTA pond, except that RAs are naicer. However, Residents have run the council since the last election; it's not obvious that they have enjoyed the experience. (Havering Council is essentially broke and getting broker.) It's certainly possible to put a winning map together for Reform, but it's not that simple.
I expect the RAs to hold on in their strong wards in Upminster. The Cons will lose a lot to Reform, but I expect they will hang on to much of Romford even if Andrew Rosindell has to knock on every door himself. Labour will be wiped out. That will probably leave us in NOC with 3 groups of right-wing politicians who hate each other and can't work together.
To make an iPhone at a reasonable cost in the US would require
1) a redesign of the phone for near total automation of the manufacturing process. 2) designing and building the new, almost totally automated factory. 3) doing the same for all the components
No way Tim Cook will go for any of that. He learned his trade from Steve Jobs, who found out the hard way why you don't manufacture in the US.
When Jobs set up NeXT, he spent a fortune building an advanced manufacturing plant in California to make his computers. But US-based manufacturing meant the computers were so expensive sales ended up being pitiful, driving NeXT out of the hardware game entirely.
Maybe a Trump trade policy instead of a Clinton trade policy would have made NeXT as success.
To make an iPhone at a reasonable cost in the US would require
1) a redesign of the phone for near total automation of the manufacturing process. 2) designing and building the new, almost totally automated factory. 3) doing the same for all the components
No way Tim Cook will go for any of that. He learned his trade from Steve Jobs, who found out the hard way why you don't manufacture in the US.
When Jobs set up NeXT, he spent a fortune building an advanced manufacturing plant in California to make his computers. But US-based manufacturing meant the computers were so expensive sales ended up being pitiful, driving NeXT out of the hardware game entirely.
There were many other signifcant problems with NeXT, other than that. Jobs being one of them...
To make an iPhone at a reasonable cost in the US would require
1) a redesign of the phone for near total automation of the manufacturing process. 2) designing and building the new, almost totally automated factory. 3) doing the same for all the components
No way Tim Cook will go for any of that. He learned his trade from Steve Jobs, who found out the hard way why you don't manufacture in the US.
When Jobs set up NeXT, he spent a fortune building an advanced manufacturing plant in California to make his computers. But US-based manufacturing meant the computers were so expensive sales ended up being pitiful, driving NeXT out of the hardware game entirely.
It's total nonsense. Just off the top of my head here are some of the other companies that would either need to onshore production, or move from overseas, in order to create a real "Made in the USA" iPhone.
Qualcomm, Broadcom, Qorvo, Skyworks, TI, NXP, STMicro, Sony, Samsung, LG, BOE, TSMC, Kioxia. Most of these are massive companies in themselves.
When you consider all the other smaller suppliers, packaging and assembly, testers and so on it would involve thousands of companies, and millions of employees, and many trillions of dollars.
The last company to do anything close to "Made in the USA" vertically integrated manufacturing of computer systems at any scale was probably IBM, or maybe Digital and HP. That was a long time ago, and didn't work too well, which is why we now are where we are.
I don’t really have any interest in, nor pretend to have read up on or understood the Chagos deal
But I do trust John Rentoul not to be a reactionary critic of Keir Starmer. I like to read him because I think he is quite balanced, and…
This is a deal that will weigh Starmer down for the rest of his time in politics. It is like Gordon Brown “selling the gold”. Actually, it is worse, because selling the gold was a sensible decision: the government should not be speculating in precious metals on behalf of citizens – it was simply bad luck that the price went up afterwards.
The Chagos deal, though, looks like a bad deal, and nothing Starmer can say can persuade people otherwise.
This month, the prime minister has secured four international deals. The trade deals with India, the US and the EU were triumphs in the national interest that will make us better off; but they will be overshadowed by an indefensible deal with Mauritius.
I'd say that people who take an interest in foreign affairs tend to have two questions, regardless of the niceties of international law.
1. Is it in the national interest? 2. Is it morally right?
1. Most people can't really see what the national interest is in doing this deal
2. Most people who are worried about the morality of it, are concerned for the Chagossians, who neither the US, the UK, nor Mauritius care about in the slightest.
Those who think in terms of historic wrongs, think that a wrong was committed to the inhabitants, not to Mauritius.
I'd imagine 'most people' would exhaust their entire knowledge of the deal in about 12 seconds.
Selling the gold was a little more easy to imagine. Similarly why fishing is given out of proportion coverage in dealings with the EU - it's easier to visualise 'our fish/their fisherman', than issues that importers/exporters have with increased paperwork.
The amounts involved, and the actual consequences of the deal, will have approximately zero effect on anyone's lives in the UK, and I'd be amazed if the vast majority of voters even remember it by the time of the next election.
I don’t really have any interest in, nor pretend to have read up on or understood the Chagos deal
But I do trust John Rentoul not to be a reactionary critic of Keir Starmer. I like to read him because I think he is quite balanced, and…
This is a deal that will weigh Starmer down for the rest of his time in politics. It is like Gordon Brown “selling the gold”. Actually, it is worse, because selling the gold was a sensible decision: the government should not be speculating in precious metals on behalf of citizens – it was simply bad luck that the price went up afterwards.
The Chagos deal, though, looks like a bad deal, and nothing Starmer can say can persuade people otherwise.
This month, the prime minister has secured four international deals. The trade deals with India, the US and the EU were triumphs in the national interest that will make us better off; but they will be overshadowed by an indefensible deal with Mauritius.
Labour will be happy enough if it's like selling the gold. They won the next two GEs after that.
If the public were willing to return Tone with a Boris-esque majority after an issue like Iraq, I can't see Chagos having much of an impact. Sir Keir is no Tone of course, but equally Kemi is no Michael Howard.
Regarding the parties at the next GE, I think the Tories probably only really have one more roll of the dice or one black swan event to stand a chance of recovery. I do think that they are going to wither and decline unless something very significant happens.
The reason I say this is because a sustained position of sitting behind Reform in the polls will aid in the transfer of core voters over to Reform. This process has already started, and it looks to have sped up after the locals. And I know that not all Tories are going to vote Reform, but for those “of the right” who want to back a winner and feel instinctively comfortable voting for a right wing party with a chance of power, it will be becoming harder to justify remaining with a party that sits in the high teens in the polls. Unless something stops this osmosis, it is hard to see those votes trickling back.
The roll of the dice is a change of leader. The current situation is not all Badenoch’s fault, but it seems very unlikely she can move on from the last government in a meaningful and impactful way. Ideally they could do with someone not tied to the weight of the past government, but that person is very challenging to find in a very limited MP pool, if they even exist.
The black swan event is Reform imploding. This is, id suggest, the Tories’ best hope. Farage has a history of falling out with people, and not being particularly well disciplined.
If Kemi has not at least consistently got the Tories back to at least 2024 levels by next autumn she will likely be replaced by Cleverly or Stride (if Tory MPs alone get the final say) or Jenrick if he gets enough MPs to take it to members.
Assuming Boris is not back in parliament by then after a by election of course
Regarding the parties at the next GE, I think the Tories probably only really have one more roll of the dice or one black swan event to stand a chance of recovery. I do think that they are going to wither and decline unless something very significant happens.
The reason I say this is because a sustained position of sitting behind Reform in the polls will aid in the transfer of core voters over to Reform. This process has already started, and it looks to have sped up after the locals. And I know that not all Tories are going to vote Reform, but for those “of the right” who want to back a winner and feel instinctively comfortable voting for a right wing party with a chance of power, it will be becoming harder to justify remaining with a party that sits in the high teens in the polls. Unless something stops this osmosis, it is hard to see those votes trickling back.
The roll of the dice is a change of leader. The current situation is not all Badenoch’s fault, but it seems very unlikely she can move on from the last government in a meaningful and impactful way. Ideally they could do with someone not tied to the weight of the past government, but that person is very challenging to find in a very limited MP pool, if they even exist.
The black swan event is Reform imploding. This is, id suggest, the Tories’ best hope. Farage has a history of falling out with people, and not being particularly well disciplined.
Reform imploding is more of a known unknown, than a black swan.
We know there’s a non-trivial risk that it will happen, but we don’t know if it will, or when it will.
If it happened, then the Conservatives would be up to 30% +, and back in the game.
If not, they’ll go the way of Les Republicans, the Dutch Christian Democrats, the Whigs, and Never Trump Republicans.
Reform is already Farage Party v3. If they implode - lets say are put into significant financial difficulties - they'll just get replaced by Farage Party v4.
People Want Change. They're not going to go back to the Tories.
Reform UK is only Farage Party v2: the switch from the Brexit Party to Reform UK was purely a name change.
Comments
The European Union, which was formed for the primary purpose of taking advantage of the United States on TRADE, has been very difficult to deal with. Their powerful Trade Barriers, Vat Taxes, ridiculous Corporate Penalties, Non-Monetary Trade Barriers, Monetary Manipulations, unfair and unjustified lawsuits against Americans Companies, and more, have led to a Trade Deficit with the U.S. of more than $250,000,000 a year, a number which is totally unacceptable. Our discussions with them are going nowhere! Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% Tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025. There is no Tariff if the product is built or manufactured in the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1925881027089608778?s=61
selling the deal at the podium Starmer said it gives the UK and the US access to "vital capabilities".
"The strategic location of this base is of the utmost importance", Starmer says, adding "the base is right at the base of our security".
senior British Army officer Gen James Hockenhull added.
the base's location provides "immense global reach", making it a "unique asset" for British security.
"I welcome the long-term certainty that this treaty brings. It will help the British Armed Forces in our efforts to support stability abroad and security at home,"
What are you saying defence and security UK gets from this base and 100M a year from our defence budget, that’s not also pooled with other allies - US and India, and where to stop naming them, Australia, Canada, New Zealand etc? What do we actually get that justifies us holding the lease and UK Tax payers paying it, or us holding the sovereignty and increasing reputational and legal damage if taking that route?
Those ex British Generals who said give up sovereignty, don’t sign a lease, let US and India deal and pay from here, spend our defence money on ourselves, don’t they have a strong argument?
The obvious elephant in the room with this deal, is keeping Chagos sovereignty or paying the lease, gives UK absolutely nothing in defence and security, that isn’t also pooled with others.
Expect similar from Farage if he ever becomes PM.
Their three big challenges are...
Seems to be little else going on.
WRT next year's London Borough elections:
The starting point from 2022 is
Lab. 42%, 1,156 seats, 21 councils, Con 26%, 404 seats, 5 councils + 1 Mayoralty, Lib Dem 14%, 180 seats, 3 councils, Greens 12%, 18 seats, Others 6%, 59 seats. 3 councils are NOC.
On current trends,
I might expect shares of
Lab 32%, Con 18%, Reform 17%, Lib Dem 16%, Green 12%,
I'd expect big gains for the Lib Dems and Greens in urban intellectual wards, in Haringey, Camden, Islington, parts of Southwark, Lambeth. I think the Greens will do well in Hackney.
I think that Reform will take Havering, win the Dagenham part of Barking & Dagenham, and at least achieve largest party status in Hillingdon, and Bexley.
Harrow & K & C are the only boroughs I'm certain the Conservatives will hold, but they must fancy their chances of regaining Westminster and Wandsworth. I think they'll retain at least largest party status in Bromley, and make big gains in Brent North. I'm not sure to what extent, Reform will blunt their chances in Enfield and Barnet.
In terms of seats, I'd hazard a guess of about Labour 900, Conservative 350, Lib Dem 300, Green 50, Reform 150.
It’s only us on PB still showing any interest in Chagos deal.
Facts matter if you are trying to make historical claims
They certainly seem to be getting their own back now. As Ed Davey speaks out for a more robust defence policy, for example, he is attracting a lot of attention from previously solidly Conservative voters. If the Lib Dems can catch the wind in economic policy, then they really could break out above 100 MPs next time.
On that basis I think your Labour number might be a bit high.
Good accommodation and afternoon tea in the Orangery is a delight.
Ullswater is nowhere near as busy as Windermere and if you want a bit of tranquillity to calm your nerves, I can thoroughly recommend one of the seats on the terrace overlooking the lake.
The thing is that skilled workers expect a higher wage in the US.
So either they are working in very high value added (see satellites and other hi-tech) or they are working in very very automated factories. See a video of a modern car factory for that.
Most of the workers at Foxconn etc. are *not* highly skilled. Just cheap(ish). Think meat robots, really. And the bigger problem is the localised supply chains for components.
To make an iPhone at a reasonable cost in the US would require
1) a redesign of the phone for near total automation of the manufacturing process.
2) designing and building the new, almost totally automated factory.
3) doing the same for all the components
My rant isn't about Chagos but Lidl - no, not another part of the old Empire we're paying someone else to take on...
Our local Lidl has decided to "take action" against shoplifting which, it appears, with security and barcode gates, is still a problem.
They've increased the number of self-service tills from 20 to 24 but the new ones are much smaller so if there's two or three of you with a basket you're basically blocking not only the area around you but opposite as well.
Now, you have (officially) to scan your receipt to get out of the self-service area. What was happening was the shoplifters were taking what they want, standing patiently in the queue to be called forward and then walking through, out the other side and out the store past the security guard who in my view couldn't win a 100m race against an arthritic snail.
Lidl's solution would be fine except of course the gate to allow you out of the self service area stays open so long the entire Reform Parliamentary Party could get through it before it closes so that won't stop the shoplifting at busy times. Lidl have probably spent thousands on this but it's a waste and actually makes the shopping experience worse. Kudos.
Transport for London are trying new stronger gates at East Ham station - they've obviously worked out the main evaders are aged and infirm Lidl security guards and against them the new gates are superb. My experience is evaders are much younger and still able to push their way through.
The reason I say this is because a sustained position of sitting behind Reform in the polls will aid in the transfer of core voters over to Reform. This process has already started, and it looks to have sped up after the locals. And I know that not all Tories are going to vote Reform, but for those “of the right” who want to back a winner and feel instinctively comfortable voting for a right wing party with a chance of power, it will be becoming harder to justify remaining with a party that sits in the high teens in the polls. Unless something stops this osmosis, it is hard to see those votes trickling back.
The roll of the dice is a change of leader. The current situation is not all Badenoch’s fault, but it seems very unlikely she can move on from the last government in a meaningful and impactful way. Ideally they could do with someone not tied to the weight of the past government, but that person is very challenging to find in a very limited MP pool, if they even exist.
The black swan event is Reform imploding. This is, id suggest, the Tories’ best hope. Farage has a history of falling out with people, and not being particularly well disciplined.
*nothing* - Picks up box with programme running in it, but this time it's Trump not Moriaty.....
The world would be a much better place.
Chuck Putin, Xi and Netanyahu in as well as we've got a winner.....
At the moment if you’re trading into the US and affected by tariffs in a way you can’t fully pass on, you have a choice to make between abandoning the market, moving origin to the US, or attempting to swallow some cost efficiencies to stay above water. Moving to US origin is only feasible in certain cases.
Same with the threatened retaliatory measures on international tax, which will have a bigger overall effect on the UK.
Given the Trump tweets just now expect huge shipments of goods into the US in the next few days ahead of the deadline. And this time the EU needs to wake up and actually announce retaliations early rather than spending a month navel gazing about them.
Maybe I’ve been spoiled - having flown in helicopters over Victoria Falls. And also over the famous calls of the Kimberley Coast. And also over the Iguaza Falls from the Brazilian AND Argentinian sides
However - Ullswater in bright May sun? The Lakes really are exquisite - a near-perfect landscape of earth and wood and rock and water. Shame about the tourists
I was beginning to get concerned the Conservative front bench may have sealed themselves in on the wrong side of this one, as it plays out. 😕
If you are that outraged and sure of yourself as the Conservative Front Bench is on this, then you must have a policy that rips the stupid bad thing up, to do something that’s better.
Peanuts, but a useful way of visualising the changes.
(Edit: why didn't Biden drop the Trump 1 tariffs?)
We know there’s a non-trivial risk that it will happen, but we don’t know if it will, or when it will.
If it happened, then the Conservatives would be up to 30% +, and back in the game.
If not, they’ll go the way of Les Republicans, the Dutch Christian Democrats, the Whigs, and Never Trump Republicans.
This is the essence of what's happening with him anyway, so let's take it to its logical conclusion. We go about our daily lives, safe in the knowledge there's a proper person in charge of America, and every so often we turn on the box to see what "Donald" is getting up to.
Everybody happy, including him.
People Want Change. They're not going to go back to the Tories.
The unkown is how the battle between Reform and Residents Associations goes. In some ways, they have fished in the same NOTA pond, except that RAs are naicer. However, Residents have run the council since the last election; it's not obvious that they have enjoyed the experience. (Havering Council is essentially broke and getting broker.) It's certainly possible to put a winning map together for Reform, but it's not that simple.
But I do trust John Rentoul not to be a reactionary critic of Keir Starmer. I like to read him because I think he is quite balanced, and…
This is a deal that will weigh Starmer down for the rest of his time in politics. It is like Gordon Brown “selling the gold”. Actually, it is worse, because selling the gold was a sensible decision: the government should not be speculating in precious metals on behalf of citizens – it was simply bad luck that the price went up afterwards.
The Chagos deal, though, looks like a bad deal, and nothing Starmer can say can persuade people otherwise.
This month, the prime minister has secured four international deals. The trade deals with India, the US and the EU were triumphs in the national interest that will make us better off; but they will be overshadowed by an indefensible deal with Mauritius.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/chagos-islands-mauritius-starmer-diego-garcia-b2756625.html
I have voted for them for 50 years and they are not on the radar as a possible. At the moment I will vote for the party that can beat Reform, and if Reform implode I shall vote for the party that beat the Tories, as I did in 2024.
Even the pandemic wasn't a black swan event, we know they happen all the time, the only question was when and where will it start, and how serious will it be (I'd say, medium)
It's just like London. Avoid St Paul's Cathedral but drop into St Stephen Walbrook or St Magnus Martyr and soak up far more interesting places on your own.
And don't visit waterfalls after three months of no rainfall.
Footnote: if you have been visiting Shap as I think you mentioned, Trollope's 'Can You Forgive Her' is 800 pages of Shap inclusive bliss, including some interesting walk routes, including where Kate Vavasor has her arm broken.
1. Is it in the national interest?
2. Is it morally right?
1. Most people can't really see what the national interest is in doing this deal
2. Most people who are worried about the morality of it, are concerned for the Chagossians, who neither the US, the UK, nor Mauritius care about in the slightest.
Those who think in terms of historic wrongs, think that a wrong was committed to the inhabitants, not to Mauritius.
More whining about the EU being so mean to the fxckwit .
When Jobs set up NeXT, he spent a fortune building an advanced manufacturing plant in California to make his computers. But US-based manufacturing meant the computers were so expensive sales ended up being pitiful, driving NeXT out of the hardware game entirely.
Gammon Racist Right Wing Flag Shaggers?
Qualcomm, Broadcom, Qorvo, Skyworks, TI, NXP, STMicro, Sony, Samsung, LG, BOE, TSMC, Kioxia. Most of these are massive companies in themselves.
When you consider all the other smaller suppliers, packaging and assembly, testers and so on it would involve thousands of companies, and millions of employees, and many trillions of dollars.
The last company to do anything close to "Made in the USA" vertically integrated manufacturing of computer systems at any scale was probably IBM, or maybe Digital and HP. That was a long time ago, and didn't work too well, which is why we now are where we are.
Selling the gold was a little more easy to imagine. Similarly why fishing is given out of proportion coverage in dealings with the EU - it's easier to visualise 'our fish/their fisherman', than issues that importers/exporters have with increased paperwork.
The amounts involved, and the actual consequences of the deal, will have approximately zero effect on anyone's lives in the UK, and I'd be amazed if the vast majority of voters even remember it by the time of the next election.
(That's Larry Sanders, Bernie's brother.)
Assuming Boris is not back in parliament by then after a by election of course
The biggliest plane.
(Or he could just nick the Stratolaunch. Preferably with a rocket underneath he can be put into so he can be blasted into space...)
From his memecoin event with unpublished guests.
From his taking a plane as a bribe.
From his vindictive attack on Harvard
From his deficit bloating budget
It's just shitposting, like we get on PB, but bigglier.