Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Will any party win an overall majority at the next election? – politicalbetting.com

2456

Comments

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,261
    edited May 22

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Arn’t the interviewed Chagossians furious with being ethnically cleansed from their home by previous UK governments so US can have a base (allowing UK mates rates deals on US weapons) and not allowed back on Garcia in this deal for security reasons?

    Or after more money to keep quiet?
    They don't want to be Mauritian underlings nor have Mauritius own their home is their current concern
    Until the mid sixties, they were British Empire underlings, at that point UK ceded independence to Mauritius except the bits we ethnically cleansed for the US base. That was when that die was cast wasn’t it, not today with this deal?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,339

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    How about the Chagossian Islanders?
    Their case was turned down by the courts at lunchtime
    The whole thing is deeply disgusting, and a charge of malfeasance in public office at the very least should be looked at for Starmer when he leaves number 10. I am sure he knows someone good to defend him.
    LOL (to the charge of malfeasance).
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,261

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    How about the Chagossian Islanders?
    Their case was turned down by the courts at lunchtime
    The whole thing is deeply disgusting, and a charge of malfeasance in public office at the very least should be looked at for Starmer when he leaves number 10. I am sure he knows someone good to defend him.
    It’s in emerging Superpower and regions Big Daddy’s India’s bailiwick, and it’s a US base.

    Specifically, what “vital capabilities” will UK get from extending ownership of Garcia, and not passing that on to India and USA?

    Are we merely pretending it’s 100 years ago and we are still a player in the region, or are we actually getting something tangible from ownership we wouldn’t from security partnership with India and US?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,605
    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    This far away from the next GE, laying Reform looks the best value. I’m not tying up my money for another 3 or 4 years on any of the options, though.

    There are no good political bets currently, so far as I can see. You can chip away with the odd minor bet, but the market offers little.

    (For example of minor bets - opposing Farage as next PM, LDs to get most seats, opposing DMill, Burnham, Khan, and a few others to be next Labour leader.)
    KB to not exit this year is value imo.
    Yes - you've suggested this before. I broadly agree, but the whole Tory party is just so crap now that I don't think there's much chance of sanity.

    The Tories lost their good MPs at the last election and retained the (to be kind) less good.

    I don't know quite what's left, but unless I had a very long and heavily electrical stick I'm happy not to probe.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,293

    kinabalu said:

    Fishing said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    I'd like to see a poll on this question:

    "France is establishing a high-security prison in its overseas territory in South America. Would you support Britain using its overseas territory in the same way?"
    Yes I'd like the opportunity to tick 'obviously not' on that. They never seem to ask me.
    I don't think you need to worry as our cretinous PM is giving all our overseas territories away for no reason and making us pay billions for the privilege.
    Return of stolen goods.
    The Americans must be furious that we're making them close down the base.
    Yes, it is all a bit having our cake and eating it. Messy old world.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,134
    Starmer is deeply comfortable giving away British territory and sovereignty.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,186
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Arn’t the interviewed Chagossians furious with being ethnically cleansed from their home by previous UK governments so US can have a base (allowing UK mates rates deals on US weapons) and not allowed back on Garcia in this deal for security reasons?

    Or after more money to keep quiet?
    They don't want to be Mauritian underlings nor have Mauritius own their home is their current concern
    Some are against, some are for.
    https://news.sky.com/video/chagossians-ready-to-fight-until-the-end-as-high-court-lifts-injuction-allowing-chagos-islands-deal-to-proceed-13372751

    Chagossians 'ready to fight until the end' as High Court lifts injunction allowing Chagos Islands deal to proceed
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,321

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    How about the Chagossian Islanders?
    Their case was turned down by the courts at lunchtime
    The whole thing is deeply disgusting, and a charge of malfeasance in public office at the very least should be looked at for Starmer when he leaves number 10. I am sure he knows someone good to defend him.
    LOL (to the charge of malfeasance).
    A good Norman term.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,302

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Arn’t the interviewed Chagossians furious with being ethnically cleansed from their home by previous UK governments so US can have a base (allowing UK mates rates deals on US weapons) and not allowed back on Garcia in this deal for security reasons?

    Or after more money to keep quiet?
    They don't want to be Mauritian underlings nor have Mauritius own their home is their current concern
    Until the mid sixties, they were British Empire underlings, at that point UK ceded independence to Mauritius except the bits we ethnically cleansed for the US base. That was when that die was cast wasn’t it, not today?
    They are separate places, they were administered as one unit until Mauritius got independence then separated. We should have let the Chagossians come home and told Mauritius to do one
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,134
    RIP British Indian Ocean Territory

    (count the months before it effectively becomes Chinese Indian Ocean Territory)
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,452
    I am still quite surprised we’ve not seen some more Tory defections to Reform yet. I thought there’d have been 1 or 2 post locals.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,293
    edited May 22

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Arn’t the interviewed Chagossians furious with being ethnically cleansed from their home by previous UK governments so US can have a base (allowing UK mates rates deals on US weapons) and not allowed back on Garcia in this deal for security reasons?

    Or after more money to keep quiet?
    They don't want to be Mauritian underlings nor have Mauritius own their home is their current concern
    Some are against, some are for.
    https://news.sky.com/video/chagossians-ready-to-fight-until-the-end-as-high-court-lifts-injuction-allowing-chagos-islands-deal-to-proceed-13372751

    Chagossians 'ready to fight until the end' as High Court lifts injunction allowing Chagos Islands deal to proceed
    Yes, that's the 'against' side.

    There should be a "some" before Chagossians in the headline there.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,524

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    I'd like to see a poll on this question:

    "France is establishing a high-security prison in its overseas territory in South America. Would you support Britain using its overseas territory in the same way?"
    If it was Chagos it would diversify away from military use and provide employment to islanders who could move back.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,293
    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    This far away from the next GE, laying Reform looks the best value. I’m not tying up my money for another 3 or 4 years on any of the options, though.

    There are no good political bets currently, so far as I can see. You can chip away with the odd minor bet, but the market offers little.

    (For example of minor bets - opposing Farage as next PM, LDs to get most seats, opposing DMill, Burnham, Khan, and a few others to be next Labour leader.)
    KB to not exit this year is value imo.
    Yes - you've suggested this before. I broadly agree, but the whole Tory party is just so crap now that I don't think there's much chance of sanity.

    The Tories lost their good MPs at the last election and retained the (to be kind) less good.

    I don't know quite what's left, but unless I had a very long and heavily electrical stick I'm happy not to probe.
    They are in a state, aren't they. As you say, the Brexit purge didn't help.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,324

    I am still quite surprised we’ve not seen some more Tory defections to Reform yet. I thought there’d have been 1 or 2 post locals.

    One possibility is that a significant group would go together. It is not hard to imagine that it is being hotly discussed/organised all the time. However, four years before an election feels a long time. Perhaps the next year or two will be a bit dull. I think how elections/polling looks in 12-18 months will determine all manner of things, for Tories and for Labour. There is a long time to go.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,261
    edited May 22

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Arn’t the interviewed Chagossians furious with being ethnically cleansed from their home by previous UK governments so US can have a base (allowing UK mates rates deals on US weapons) and not allowed back on Garcia in this deal for security reasons?

    Or after more money to keep quiet?
    They don't want to be Mauritian underlings nor have Mauritius own their home is their current concern
    Until the mid sixties, they were British Empire underlings, at that point UK ceded independence to Mauritius except the bits we ethnically cleansed for the US base. That was when that die was cast wasn’t it, not today?
    They are separate places, they were administered as one unit until Mauritius got independence then separated. We should have let the Chagossians come home and told Mauritius to do one
    Were they not separated and then ethnically cleansed by UK merely to secure the base and its security?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,302

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Arn’t the interviewed Chagossians furious with being ethnically cleansed from their home by previous UK governments so US can have a base (allowing UK mates rates deals on US weapons) and not allowed back on Garcia in this deal for security reasons?

    Or after more money to keep quiet?
    They don't want to be Mauritian underlings nor have Mauritius own their home is their current concern
    Until the mid sixties, they were British Empire underlings, at that point UK ceded independence to Mauritius except the bits we ethnically cleansed for the US base. That was when that die was cast wasn’t it, not today?
    They are separate places, they were administered as one unit until Mauritius got independence then separated. We should have let the Chagossians come home and told Mauritius to do one
    Were they not separated and then ethnically cleansed merely to secure the base and its security?
    Oh yes the original sin is ours but we should be making amends with the Chagossians.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,339

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Arn’t the interviewed Chagossians furious with being ethnically cleansed from their home by previous UK governments so US can have a base (allowing UK mates rates deals on US weapons) and not allowed back on Garcia in this deal for security reasons?

    Or after more money to keep quiet?
    They don't want to be Mauritian underlings nor have Mauritius own their home is their current concern
    Until the mid sixties, they were British Empire underlings, at that point UK ceded independence to Mauritius except the bits we ethnically cleansed for the US base. That was when that die was cast wasn’t it, not today?
    They are separate places, they were administered as one unit until Mauritius got independence then separated. We should have let the Chagossians come home and told Mauritius to do one
    Were they not separated and then ethnically cleansed by UK merely to secure the base and its security?
    Yes.

    But they’re not that close to each other, so one might argue that the Chagossians had their own identity.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,261

    RIP British Indian Ocean Territory

    (count the months before it effectively becomes Chinese Indian Ocean Territory)

    “Base is a 'unique asset' for Britain, senior officer says
    We're now hearing from senior British Army officer Gen James Hockenhull.
    He says that the base's location provides "immense global reach", making it a "unique asset" for British security.
    "I welcome the long-term certainty that this treaty brings. It will help the British Armed Forces in our efforts to support stability abroad and security at home," Hockenhull says.

    What’s the actual detail on that which would require actual ongoing UK ownership, and not that ownership passed on to India and USA, who sat at the table with us negotiating this?

    Is the bottom line of UK continuing Garcia on a lease, and not someone else holding same lease, continued UK interoperability with US weapons and nuclear weapons?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,302
    500 in the day looks likely now
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,293

    RIP British Indian Ocean Territory

    (count the months before it effectively becomes Chinese Indian Ocean Territory)

    Why is the US happy with this if it's good for China?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,261
    edited May 22

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Arn’t the interviewed Chagossians furious with being ethnically cleansed from their home by previous UK governments so US can have a base (allowing UK mates rates deals on US weapons) and not allowed back on Garcia in this deal for security reasons?

    Or after more money to keep quiet?
    They don't want to be Mauritian underlings nor have Mauritius own their home is their current concern
    Until the mid sixties, they were British Empire underlings, at that point UK ceded independence to Mauritius except the bits we ethnically cleansed for the US base. That was when that die was cast wasn’t it, not today?
    They are separate places, they were administered as one unit until Mauritius got independence then separated. We should have let the Chagossians come home and told Mauritius to do one
    Were they not separated and then ethnically cleansed merely to secure the base and its security?
    Oh yes the original sin is ours but we should be making amends with the Chagossians.
    You would today give Chagos and Garcia to Chagossians, not to Mauritius? That’s what you are arguing for, to right the wrongs of the British past?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,134

    RIP British Indian Ocean Territory

    (count the months before it effectively becomes Chinese Indian Ocean Territory)

    “Base is a 'unique asset' for Britain, senior officer says
    We're now hearing from senior British Army officer Gen James Hockenhull.
    He says that the base's location provides "immense global reach", making it a "unique asset" for British security.
    "I welcome the long-term certainty that this treaty brings. It will help the British Armed Forces in our efforts to support stability abroad and security at home," Hockenhull says.

    What’s the actual detail on that which would require actual ongoing UK ownership, and not that ownership passed on to India and USA, who sat at the table with us negotiating this?

    Is the bottom line of UK continuing Garcia on a lease, and not someone else holding same lease, continued UK interoperability with US weapons and nuclear weapons?
    Who knows. Maybe that's part of it but I suspect it's not founded on it.

    My only guess (hope) is that it's a "technicality" and possession is nine tenths of the law, but Mauritius still now has the freehold and can be heavily pressured through force of geopolitics.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,339

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Very few British voters care about Chagos. Those few who are irate, judging by comments here, are people who were never going to vote Labour anyway. Whatever the rights or wrongs of this decision, it’s not what’s going to decide the next general election, or any election in the UK.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,339
    kinabalu said:

    RIP British Indian Ocean Territory

    (count the months before it effectively becomes Chinese Indian Ocean Territory)

    Why is the US happy with this if it's good for China?
    The claim it’s good for China is highly questionable.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,751

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    How about the Chagossian Islanders?
    Their case was turned down by the courts at lunchtime
    The whole thing is deeply disgusting, and a charge of malfeasance in public office at the very least should be looked at for Starmer when he leaves number 10. I am sure he knows someone good to defend him.
    It’s in emerging Superpower and regions Big Daddy’s India’s bailiwick, and it’s a US base.

    Specifically, what “vital capabilities” will UK get from extending ownership of Garcia, and not passing that on to India and USA?

    Are we merely pretending it’s 100 years ago and we are still a player in the region, or are we actually getting something tangible from ownership we wouldn’t from security partnership with India and US?
    Well, if you trust the Indians and the Americans to always be on our side, that’s fine. I wouldn’t trust either.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,302

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Arn’t the interviewed Chagossians furious with being ethnically cleansed from their home by previous UK governments so US can have a base (allowing UK mates rates deals on US weapons) and not allowed back on Garcia in this deal for security reasons?

    Or after more money to keep quiet?
    They don't want to be Mauritian underlings nor have Mauritius own their home is their current concern
    Until the mid sixties, they were British Empire underlings, at that point UK ceded independence to Mauritius except the bits we ethnically cleansed for the US base. That was when that die was cast wasn’t it, not today?
    They are separate places, they were administered as one unit until Mauritius got independence then separated. We should have let the Chagossians come home and told Mauritius to do one
    Were they not separated and then ethnically cleansed merely to secure the base and its security?
    Oh yes the original sin is ours but we should be making amends with the Chagossians.
    You would today give Chagos and Garcia to Chagossians, not to Mauritius? That’s what you are arguing for, to right the wrongs of the British past?
    Yes. Except Garcia which we keep as a sovereign base. We then offer Chagos defence guarantees if they want to take them. Job done.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,451

    RIP British Indian Ocean Territory

    (count the months before it effectively becomes Chinese Indian Ocean Territory)

    “Base is a 'unique asset' for Britain, senior officer says
    We're now hearing from senior British Army officer Gen James Hockenhull.
    He says that the base's location provides "immense global reach", making it a "unique asset" for British security.
    "I welcome the long-term certainty that this treaty brings. It will help the British Armed Forces in our efforts to support stability abroad and security at home," Hockenhull says.

    What’s the actual detail on that which would require actual ongoing UK ownership, and not that ownership passed on to India and USA, who sat at the table with us negotiating this?

    Is the bottom line of UK continuing Garcia on a lease, and not someone else holding same lease, continued UK interoperability with US weapons and nuclear weapons?
    Remind me how the last 99-year lease ended for HMG.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,186
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Arn’t the interviewed Chagossians furious with being ethnically cleansed from their home by previous UK governments so US can have a base (allowing UK mates rates deals on US weapons) and not allowed back on Garcia in this deal for security reasons?

    Or after more money to keep quiet?
    They don't want to be Mauritian underlings nor have Mauritius own their home is their current concern
    Some are against, some are for.
    https://news.sky.com/video/chagossians-ready-to-fight-until-the-end-as-high-court-lifts-injuction-allowing-chagos-islands-deal-to-proceed-13372751

    Chagossians 'ready to fight until the end' as High Court lifts injunction allowing Chagos Islands deal to proceed
    Yes, that's the 'against' side.

    There should be a "some" before Chagossians in the headline there.
    Link??
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,171
    edited May 22

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Very few British voters care about Chagos. Those few who are irate, judging by comments here, are people who were never going to vote Labour anyway. Whatever the rights or wrongs of this decision, it’s not what’s going to decide the next general election, or any election in the UK.
    This ia eerily reminiscent of a HYUFD post telling us why the government alienating various sections of the electorate didn't matter c. 2021.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,339

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Arn’t the interviewed Chagossians furious with being ethnically cleansed from their home by previous UK governments so US can have a base (allowing UK mates rates deals on US weapons) and not allowed back on Garcia in this deal for security reasons?

    Or after more money to keep quiet?
    They don't want to be Mauritian underlings nor have Mauritius own their home is their current concern
    Until the mid sixties, they were British Empire underlings, at that point UK ceded independence to Mauritius except the bits we ethnically cleansed for the US base. That was when that die was cast wasn’t it, not today?
    They are separate places, they were administered as one unit until Mauritius got independence then separated. We should have let the Chagossians come home and told Mauritius to do one
    Were they not separated and then ethnically cleansed merely to secure the base and its security?
    Oh yes the original sin is ours but we should be making amends with the Chagossians.
    You would today give Chagos and Garcia to Chagossians, not to Mauritius? That’s what you are arguing for, to right the wrongs of the British past?
    Yes. Except Garcia which we keep as a sovereign base. We then offer Chagos defence guarantees if they want to take them. Job done.
    The Chagossians wouldn’t be very happy with a deal that leaves out Garcia! And the US wouldn’t be very happy with a deal that let lots of people near to Garcia.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,339
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Very few British voters care about Chagos. Those few who are irate, judging by comments here, are people who were never going to vote Labour anyway. Whatever the rights or wrongs of this decision, it’s not what’s going to decide the next general election, or any election in the UK.
    This ia eerily reminiscent of a HYUFD post telling us why the government alienating various sections of the electorate didn't matter c. 2021.
    Ouch, being compared to a HYUFD post! A low blow…
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,186

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    How about the Chagossian Islanders?
    Their case was turned down by the courts at lunchtime
    The whole thing is deeply disgusting, and a charge of malfeasance in public office at the very least should be looked at for Starmer when he leaves number 10. I am sure he knows someone good to defend him.
    It’s in emerging Superpower and regions Big Daddy’s India’s bailiwick, and it’s a US base.

    Specifically, what “vital capabilities” will UK get from extending ownership of Garcia, and not passing that on to India and USA?

    Are we merely pretending it’s 100 years ago and we are still a player in the region, or are we actually getting something tangible from ownership we wouldn’t from security partnership with India and US?
    Well, if you trust the Indians and the Americans to always be on our side, that’s fine. I wouldn’t trust either.
    Indians? I thought it was the Chinese?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,302
    edited May 22

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Very few British voters care about Chagos. Those few who are irate, judging by comments here, are people who were never going to vote Labour anyway. Whatever the rights or wrongs of this decision, it’s not what’s going to decide the next general election, or any election in the UK.
    No it won't decide it. Very few individual things decide an election. It feeds a narrative. That currently being 'when Labour negotiates, Britain loses', and Starmer being happy to give things away.
    There is no upside for SKS in it, there is some downside. And given his polling that's a bad result.
    Things like this do tend to end up hung as an Albatross round the neck too. 'And that stupid bloody Chagos deal'
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,959
    Chagos is beyond betrayal

    I’m glad I’m driving or I would say such things that might lead me….. I won’t even go there

    Suffice to say that when and if we finally get our Reform government we must come after all those responsible. From Starmer down. And we want trials and jails

    And of course we repudiate the treaty
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,991

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    I would expect Starmer to know the law on this. Also he's expending political capital on a deal with Mauritius, which I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do unless he thought it was necessary. Put together that suggests he's is correct on his points.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,451
    FF43 said:

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    I would expect Starmer to know the law on this. Also he's expending political capital on a deal with Mauritius, which I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do unless he thought it was necessary. Put together that suggests he's is correct on his points.
    It boils down to “trust him”?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,321
    Real anger directed at Starmer from the Chagossians:

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1925578892540071958
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,302
    edited May 22

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Arn’t the interviewed Chagossians furious with being ethnically cleansed from their home by previous UK governments so US can have a base (allowing UK mates rates deals on US weapons) and not allowed back on Garcia in this deal for security reasons?

    Or after more money to keep quiet?
    They don't want to be Mauritian underlings nor have Mauritius own their home is their current concern
    Until the mid sixties, they were British Empire underlings, at that point UK ceded independence to Mauritius except the bits we ethnically cleansed for the US base. That was when that die was cast wasn’t it, not today?
    They are separate places, they were administered as one unit until Mauritius got independence then separated. We should have let the Chagossians come home and told Mauritius to do one
    Were they not separated and then ethnically cleansed merely to secure the base and its security?
    Oh yes the original sin is ours but we should be making amends with the Chagossians.
    You would today give Chagos and Garcia to Chagossians, not to Mauritius? That’s what you are arguing for, to right the wrongs of the British past?
    Yes. Except Garcia which we keep as a sovereign base. We then offer Chagos defence guarantees if they want to take them. Job done.
    The Chagossians wouldn’t be very happy with a deal that leaves out Garcia! And the US wouldn’t be very happy with a deal that let lots of people near to Garcia.
    Like this deal? That says we have to use Mauritian contractors on Garcia where possible. That we have to notify Mauritius of any attacks out of Garcia in advance or as soon as possible.
    The Chagossians would be happier with resettling the rest of the Archipelago and complaining about Garcia than what this achieves I'd imagine
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,644
    edited May 22

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    How about the Chagossian Islanders?
    Their case was turned down by the courts at lunchtime
    The whole thing is deeply disgusting, and a charge of malfeasance in public office at the very least should be looked at for Starmer when he leaves number 10. I am sure he knows someone good to defend him.
    It’s in emerging Superpower and regions Big Daddy’s India’s bailiwick, and it’s a US base.

    Specifically, what “vital capabilities” will UK get from extending ownership of Garcia, and not passing that on to India and USA?

    Are we merely pretending it’s 100 years ago and we are still a player in the region, or are we actually getting something tangible from ownership we wouldn’t from security partnership with India and US?
    Well, if you trust the Indians and the Americans to always be on our side, that’s fine. I wouldn’t trust either.
    Because of our colonial history and the presence of many Indian migrants/migrant-descended people in the UK we believe we have some kind of special relationship with India but we don't. India is not on our side. It isn't an ally in any sense.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,186
    Test
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,293

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Very few British voters care about Chagos. Those few who are irate, judging by comments here, are people who were never going to vote Labour anyway. Whatever the rights or wrongs of this decision, it’s not what’s going to decide the next general election, or any election in the UK.
    No it won't decide it. Very few individual things decide an election. It feeds a narrative. That currently being 'when Labour negotiates, Britain loses', and Starmer being happy to give things away.
    There is no upside for SKS in it, there is some downside. And given his polling that's a bad result.
    Things like this do tend to end up hung as an Albatross round the neck too. 'And that stupid bloody Chagos deal'
    You might be underestimating the public. They can raise their game sometimes.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,261
    RobD said:

    RIP British Indian Ocean Territory

    (count the months before it effectively becomes Chinese Indian Ocean Territory)

    “Base is a 'unique asset' for Britain, senior officer says
    We're now hearing from senior British Army officer Gen James Hockenhull.
    He says that the base's location provides "immense global reach", making it a "unique asset" for British security.
    "I welcome the long-term certainty that this treaty brings. It will help the British Armed Forces in our efforts to support stability abroad and security at home," Hockenhull says.

    What’s the actual detail on that which would require actual ongoing UK ownership, and not that ownership passed on to India and USA, who sat at the table with us negotiating this?

    Is the bottom line of UK continuing Garcia on a lease, and not someone else holding same lease, continued UK interoperability with US weapons and nuclear weapons?
    Remind me how the last 99-year lease ended for HMG.
    Yes of course I know all about what happened in the end. And what happened next and ongoing.

    I also know it was signed in the first place because Britain wanted to be seen as a fair and responsible power, rather than simply claiming the land outright, because they thought they would bring them more influence, more friends and trade with that approach. In that sense it does tie in with what UK done today, and the reasons it did it.

    But did you know US drew plans to seize Hong Kong from the British Empire?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,302
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Very few British voters care about Chagos. Those few who are irate, judging by comments here, are people who were never going to vote Labour anyway. Whatever the rights or wrongs of this decision, it’s not what’s going to decide the next general election, or any election in the UK.
    No it won't decide it. Very few individual things decide an election. It feeds a narrative. That currently being 'when Labour negotiates, Britain loses', and Starmer being happy to give things away.
    There is no upside for SKS in it, there is some downside. And given his polling that's a bad result.
    Things like this do tend to end up hung as an Albatross round the neck too. 'And that stupid bloody Chagos deal'
    You might be underestimating the public. They can raise their game sometimes.
    Nah.theyve sussed him out. He's a wrong un and he does wrong un stuff
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,293

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Arn’t the interviewed Chagossians furious with being ethnically cleansed from their home by previous UK governments so US can have a base (allowing UK mates rates deals on US weapons) and not allowed back on Garcia in this deal for security reasons?

    Or after more money to keep quiet?
    They don't want to be Mauritian underlings nor have Mauritius own their home is their current concern
    Some are against, some are for.
    https://news.sky.com/video/chagossians-ready-to-fight-until-the-end-as-high-court-lifts-injuction-allowing-chagos-islands-deal-to-proceed-13372751

    Chagossians 'ready to fight until the end' as High Court lifts injunction allowing Chagos Islands deal to proceed
    Yes, that's the 'against' side.

    There should be a "some" before Chagossians in the headline there.
    Link??
    Beeb write up today.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,453

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Arn’t the interviewed Chagossians furious with being ethnically cleansed from their home by previous UK governments so US can have a base (allowing UK mates rates deals on US weapons) and not allowed back on Garcia in this deal for security reasons?

    Or after more money to keep quiet?
    They don't want to be Mauritian underlings nor have Mauritius own their home is their current concern
    Until the mid sixties, they were British Empire underlings, at that point UK ceded independence to Mauritius except the bits we ethnically cleansed for the US base. That was when that die was cast wasn’t it, not today?
    They are separate places, they were administered as one unit until Mauritius got independence then separated. We should have let the Chagossians come home and told Mauritius to do one
    Were they not separated and then ethnically cleansed merely to secure the base and its security?
    Oh yes the original sin is ours but we should be making amends with the Chagossians.
    You would today give Chagos and Garcia to Chagossians, not to Mauritius? That’s what you are arguing for, to right the wrongs of the British past?
    Yes. Except Garcia which we keep as a sovereign base. We then offer Chagos defence guarantees if they want to take them. Job done.
    None of that is up to the UK. The US decides who comes to NSF Diego Garcia and they won't have Chagossian scrandies wandering around.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,358

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Very few British voters care about Chagos. Those few who are irate, judging by comments here, are people who were never going to vote Labour anyway. Whatever the rights or wrongs of this decision, it’s not what’s going to decide the next general election, or any election in the UK.
    No it won't decide it. Very few individual things decide an election. It feeds a narrative. That currently being 'when Labour negotiates, Britain loses', and Starmer being happy to give things away.
    There is no upside for SKS in it, there is some downside. And given his polling that's a bad result.
    Things like this do tend to end up hung as an Albatross round the neck too. 'And that stupid bloody Chagos deal'
    The slogan 'when Labour negotiates, Britain loses' is definitely beginning to gain some traction.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,293
    fitalass said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Very few British voters care about Chagos. Those few who are irate, judging by comments here, are people who were never going to vote Labour anyway. Whatever the rights or wrongs of this decision, it’s not what’s going to decide the next general election, or any election in the UK.
    No it won't decide it. Very few individual things decide an election. It feeds a narrative. That currently being 'when Labour negotiates, Britain loses', and Starmer being happy to give things away.
    There is no upside for SKS in it, there is some downside. And given his polling that's a bad result.
    Things like this do tend to end up hung as an Albatross round the neck too. 'And that stupid bloody Chagos deal'
    The slogan 'when Labour negotiates, Britain loses' is definitely beginning to gain some traction.
    But it's more than 3 words and doesn't even rhyme.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,302
    Dura_Ace said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Arn’t the interviewed Chagossians furious with being ethnically cleansed from their home by previous UK governments so US can have a base (allowing UK mates rates deals on US weapons) and not allowed back on Garcia in this deal for security reasons?

    Or after more money to keep quiet?
    They don't want to be Mauritian underlings nor have Mauritius own their home is their current concern
    Until the mid sixties, they were British Empire underlings, at that point UK ceded independence to Mauritius except the bits we ethnically cleansed for the US base. That was when that die was cast wasn’t it, not today?
    They are separate places, they were administered as one unit until Mauritius got independence then separated. We should have let the Chagossians come home and told Mauritius to do one
    Were they not separated and then ethnically cleansed merely to secure the base and its security?
    Oh yes the original sin is ours but we should be making amends with the Chagossians.
    You would today give Chagos and Garcia to Chagossians, not to Mauritius? That’s what you are arguing for, to right the wrongs of the British past?
    Yes. Except Garcia which we keep as a sovereign base. We then offer Chagos defence guarantees if they want to take them. Job done.
    None of that is up to the UK. The US decides who comes to NSF Diego Garcia and they won't have Chagossian scrandies wandering around.
    No, they don't. It's Mauritian territory now and the UK leases the base, one of the agreements for that lease agreed today is the use of Mauritian contractors. Any attack on Mauritian territory from inside the base triggera Mauritius being able to terminate the lease. I mean that's what it says, I'm sure the yanks will start firing and take over in that case but the lease says what it says
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,991
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    I would expect Starmer to know the law on this. Also he's expending political capital on a deal with Mauritius, which I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do unless he thought it was necessary. Put together that suggests he's is correct on his points.
    It boils down to “trust him”?
    I would probably trust Starmer to understand the law and the practical consequences of the deal for the reasons I have given, more than I would trust you, Farage and Badenoch on the same. So, yes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,959

    FF43 said:

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    I would expect Starmer to know the law on this. Also he's expending political capital on a deal with Mauritius, which I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do unless he thought it was necessary. Put together that suggests he's is correct on his points.
    I listened to his 'live' press conference with his defence secretary and the army commander who looks after the base, and I think those critising the deal would have benefitted from listening to it as well

    Apparently it will cost approx 100 million per year for a 99 year lease with an option to renew for 40 more years

    The US pays all the operational costs and the deal is backed by the US, NATO, all our allies but apparently opposed by Russia, China and Iran

    I am no fan of Starmer, but on this and having heard the details I have no problem with it
    You stupid berk


    This is how much it costs. It’s been added up - by an expert

    🚨NEW: Chagos deal will cost £30bn

    RENT:
    - £165m a year for the first 3 years
    - £120m a year for years 4-13
    - Then £120m+inflation for years 14-99

    PLUS:
    - £45m a year for 25 years for development
    - £40m one-off for Chagossian fund

    Assuming 2% inflation, total cost is £30.3bn

    https://x.com/tony_diver/status/1925575848976904283?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    It so bad it is mind-numbing
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,551

    FF43 said:

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    I would expect Starmer to know the law on this. Also he's expending political capital on a deal with Mauritius, which I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do unless he thought it was necessary. Put together that suggests he's is correct on his points.
    I listened to his 'live' press conference with his defence secretary and the army commander who looks after the base, and I think those critising the deal would have benefitted from listening to it as well

    Apparently it will cost approx 100 million per year for a 99 year lease with an option to renew for 40 more years

    The US pays all the operational costs and the deal is backed by the US, NATO, all our allies but apparently opposed by Russia, China and Iran

    I am no fan of Starmer, but on this and having heard the details I have no problem with it
    It’s quite complicated looking at the details . The actual tv headlines don’t have time to go through all the detail .
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,654
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    I would expect Starmer to know the law on this. Also he's expending political capital on a deal with Mauritius, which I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do unless he thought it was necessary. Put together that suggests he's is correct on his points.
    I listened to his 'live' press conference with his defence secretary and the army commander who looks after the base, and I think those critising the deal would have benefitted from listening to it as well

    Apparently it will cost approx 100 million per year for a 99 year lease with an option to renew for 40 more years

    The US pays all the operational costs and the deal is backed by the US, NATO, all our allies but apparently opposed by Russia, China and Iran

    I am no fan of Starmer, but on this and having heard the details I have no problem with it
    You stupid berk


    This is how much it costs. It’s been added up - by an expert

    🚨NEW: Chagos deal will cost £30bn

    RENT:
    - £165m a year for the first 3 years
    - £120m a year for years 4-13
    - Then £120m+inflation for years 14-99

    PLUS:
    - £45m a year for 25 years for development
    - £40m one-off for Chagossian fund

    Assuming 2% inflation, total cost is £30.3bn

    https://x.com/tony_diver/status/1925575848976904283?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    It so bad it is mind-numbing
    An expert eh? Blimey, you really should have typed that in capitals, then we could all have gone home with it settled.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,293

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Very few British voters care about Chagos. Those few who are irate, judging by comments here, are people who were never going to vote Labour anyway. Whatever the rights or wrongs of this decision, it’s not what’s going to decide the next general election, or any election in the UK.
    No it won't decide it. Very few individual things decide an election. It feeds a narrative. That currently being 'when Labour negotiates, Britain loses', and Starmer being happy to give things away.
    There is no upside for SKS in it, there is some downside. And given his polling that's a bad result.
    Things like this do tend to end up hung as an Albatross round the neck too. 'And that stupid bloody Chagos deal'
    You might be underestimating the public. They can raise their game sometimes.
    Nah.theyve sussed him out. He's a wrong un and he does wrong un stuff
    Is this shrewdie public going to suss Nigel Farage out too then before the election? Guess they're bound to.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,293

    Real anger directed at Starmer from the Chagossians:

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1925578892540071958

    Some Chagossians not 'The' Chagossians.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,453
    I don't know why so many people have the arsehole over it. None of us are ever going to go there, it's completely irrelevant for the security of the UK and there are only 40 bored UK service personnel there to do civilian policing and nothing else.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,959

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    I would expect Starmer to know the law on this. Also he's expending political capital on a deal with Mauritius, which I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do unless he thought it was necessary. Put together that suggests he's is correct on his points.
    I listened to his 'live' press conference with his defence secretary and the army commander who looks after the base, and I think those critising the deal would have benefitted from listening to it as well

    Apparently it will cost approx 100 million per year for a 99 year lease with an option to renew for 40 more years

    The US pays all the operational costs and the deal is backed by the US, NATO, all our allies but apparently opposed by Russia, China and Iran

    I am no fan of Starmer, but on this and having heard the details I have no problem with it
    You stupid berk


    This is how much it costs. It’s been added up - by an expert

    🚨NEW: Chagos deal will cost £30bn

    RENT:
    - £165m a year for the first 3 years
    - £120m a year for years 4-13
    - Then £120m+inflation for years 14-99

    PLUS:
    - £45m a year for 25 years for development
    - £40m one-off for Chagossian fund

    Assuming 2% inflation, total cost is £30.3bn

    https://x.com/tony_diver/status/1925575848976904283?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    It so bad it is mind-numbing
    You can disagree but calling me a stupid berk ?

    It appears that you want to side with Russia, China and Iran v the UK, US, NATO and our allies all of whom approve the deal

    I know which side I am even if I am an old stupid berk !!!!!
    I don’t really care. You’re an idiot

    This guy is a self declared Centrist Dad and political commentator. And usually pro Starmer. Even he can’t believe it

    “Don’t understand how you spend £9
    Billion giving away the Chagos islands and then continue complaining about huge holes in the budget and how brutal cuts need to be made. Just don’t understand how Labour maintain that narrative now”.

    An hour later:


    “So apparently, the Chagos deal won’t cost the UK £9 billion. It will cost us £30 billion.”


    https://x.com/nicholastyrone/status/1925531328256074050?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The whole thing feels suicidally stupid by Labour
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,991
    .
    Dura_Ace said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Arn’t the interviewed Chagossians furious with being ethnically cleansed from their home by previous UK governments so US can have a base (allowing UK mates rates deals on US weapons) and not allowed back on Garcia in this deal for security reasons?

    Or after more money to keep quiet?
    They don't want to be Mauritian underlings nor have Mauritius own their home is their current concern
    Until the mid sixties, they were British Empire underlings, at that point UK ceded independence to Mauritius except the bits we ethnically cleansed for the US base. That was when that die was cast wasn’t it, not today?
    They are separate places, they were administered as one unit until Mauritius got independence then separated. We should have let the Chagossians come home and told Mauritius to do one
    Were they not separated and then ethnically cleansed merely to secure the base and its security?
    Oh yes the original sin is ours but we should be making amends with the Chagossians.
    You would today give Chagos and Garcia to Chagossians, not to Mauritius? That’s what you are arguing for, to right the wrongs of the British past?
    Yes. Except Garcia which we keep as a sovereign base. We then offer Chagos defence guarantees if they want to take them. Job done.
    None of that is up to the UK. The US decides who comes to NSF Diego Garcia and they won't have Chagossian scrandies wandering around.
    Should be obvious to everyone. The key point is that Trump has signed off on the deal, which was driven by America from the get go, despite Farage's protestations.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,302
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Very few British voters care about Chagos. Those few who are irate, judging by comments here, are people who were never going to vote Labour anyway. Whatever the rights or wrongs of this decision, it’s not what’s going to decide the next general election, or any election in the UK.
    No it won't decide it. Very few individual things decide an election. It feeds a narrative. That currently being 'when Labour negotiates, Britain loses', and Starmer being happy to give things away.
    There is no upside for SKS in it, there is some downside. And given his polling that's a bad result.
    Things like this do tend to end up hung as an Albatross round the neck too. 'And that stupid bloody Chagos deal'
    You might be underestimating the public. They can raise their game sometimes.
    Nah.theyve sussed him out. He's a wrong un and he does wrong un stuff
    Is this shrewdie public going to suss Nigel Farage out too then before the election? Guess they're bound to.
    No, they figure that out when the change they voted for is just more of the same and he gets bored and flounces again
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,293

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    I would expect Starmer to know the law on this. Also he's expending political capital on a deal with Mauritius, which I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do unless he thought it was necessary. Put together that suggests he's is correct on his points.
    I listened to his 'live' press conference with his defence secretary and the army commander who looks after the base, and I think those critising the deal would have benefitted from listening to it as well

    Apparently it will cost approx 100 million per year for a 99 year lease with an option to renew for 40 more years

    The US pays all the operational costs and the deal is backed by the US, NATO, all our allies but apparently opposed by Russia, China and Iran

    I am no fan of Starmer, but on this and having heard the details I have no problem with it
    You stupid berk


    This is how much it costs. It’s been added up - by an expert

    🚨NEW: Chagos deal will cost £30bn

    RENT:
    - £165m a year for the first 3 years
    - £120m a year for years 4-13
    - Then £120m+inflation for years 14-99

    PLUS:
    - £45m a year for 25 years for development
    - £40m one-off for Chagossian fund

    Assuming 2% inflation, total cost is £30.3bn

    https://x.com/tony_diver/status/1925575848976904283?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    It so bad it is mind-numbing
    You can disagree but calling me a stupid berk ?

    It appears that you want to side with Russia, China and Iran v the UK, US, NATO and our allies all of whom approve the deal

    I know which side I am on even if I am an old stupid berk !!!!!
    Leon does usually side with our enemies tbf.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,297
    edited May 22

    FF43 said:

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    I would expect Starmer to know the law on this. Also he's expending political capital on a deal with Mauritius, which I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do unless he thought it was necessary. Put together that suggests he's is correct on his points.
    I listened to his 'live' press conference with his defence secretary and the army commander who looks after the base, and I think those critising the deal would have benefitted from listening to it as well

    Apparently it will cost approx 100 million per year for a 99 year lease with an option to renew for 40 more years

    The US pays all the operational costs and the deal is backed by the US, NATO, all our allies but apparently opposed by Russia, China and Iran

    I am no fan of Starmer, but on this and having heard the details I have no problem with it
    You have always struck me as someone who likes to be firmly within the rules as you see them - or as state authority figures (in this case Starmer) portrays them.

    However, you must also try have recourse to your own common sense.

    If ownership of this base is in Britain's vital strategic interests, then we must ignore the 'ruling' and retain sovereignty as the only guarantee.

    If the base is no longer an important strategic possession for Britain, we should let those to whom it is a vital strategic possession, the USA, take on the base and its financial liabilities - because anything else at this time is recklessly unnecessary and unaffordable spending, and given that it will probably come out of our defence budget, will make British people less secure in sum. We cannot fire ownership of a base on Diego Garcia at the Russians when they come punting up the Thames can we?

    Whatever Starmer says, and however much he tries to gussy this up as a patriotic step, those truths remain inescapable. I would suggest you don your 'big boy pants' and face up to the fact that Starmer’s premiership is an unfolding disaster, and every democratic means should be used to remove him.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,754

    viewcode said:

    https://x.com/breeallegretti/status/1925571749170602378?s=19

    Lol, he's losing the party. We know what happens next

    "...Aubrey Allegretti @breeallegretti
    Exc: Labour MP Peter Lamb goes studs up in a WhatsApp group after Keir Starmer's Chagos deal announcement: "Getting real tired of this 'the courts have settled it' line of argument being wheeled out by the PM. They interpret current law, MPs make the law. You can't hide behind a judgement and claim it gives you cover from questions over what is right or proper."..."
    4:17 pm · 22 May 2025


    It's a personality flaw. He's a lawyer and has great respect for the law. He sees his role as playing the game as best he can within the rules. He misses the point that the PM can, and in certain cases must, change the rules or throw over the entire board if it's in the best interest of the UK. It never occurred to him to tell the Court to eff off.
    Sorry but that's nonsense. The 'ruling' had no legal force - our entire participation in the court is predicated on the principle that its rulings concerning our territories are advisory in nature.

    Starmer's old legal firm is representing Mauritius, and stands to earn a packet. It would of course be entirely right, proper and above board that in the course of time, they may make a sizable charitable donation to the 'Keir Starmer foundation' which will fund Sir Keir's vital humanitarian work (and vital swimming pool) in the future.
    There are very few barristers' chambers so complaining about the whole "represented by the same firm" thing is nonsense. It is like having the same bank as your local supermarket.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,293

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Very few British voters care about Chagos. Those few who are irate, judging by comments here, are people who were never going to vote Labour anyway. Whatever the rights or wrongs of this decision, it’s not what’s going to decide the next general election, or any election in the UK.
    No it won't decide it. Very few individual things decide an election. It feeds a narrative. That currently being 'when Labour negotiates, Britain loses', and Starmer being happy to give things away.
    There is no upside for SKS in it, there is some downside. And given his polling that's a bad result.
    Things like this do tend to end up hung as an Albatross round the neck too. 'And that stupid bloody Chagos deal'
    You might be underestimating the public. They can raise their game sometimes.
    Nah.theyve sussed him out. He's a wrong un and he does wrong un stuff
    Is this shrewdie public going to suss Nigel Farage out too then before the election? Guess they're bound to.
    No, they figure that out when the change they voted for is just more of the same and he gets bored and flounces again
    You do paint a bleak picture. Could be right but it's not going on my wall.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,351
    edited May 22

    RIP British Indian Ocean Territory

    (count the months before it effectively becomes Chinese Indian Ocean Territory)

    “Base is a 'unique asset' for Britain, senior officer says
    We're now hearing from senior British Army officer Gen James Hockenhull.
    He says that the base's location provides "immense global reach", making it a "unique asset" for British security.
    "I welcome the long-term certainty that this treaty brings. It will help the British Armed Forces in our efforts to support stability abroad and security at home," Hockenhull says.

    What’s the actual detail on that which would require actual ongoing UK ownership, and not that ownership passed on to India and USA, who sat at the table with us negotiating this?

    Is the bottom line of UK continuing Garcia on a lease, and not someone else holding same lease, continued UK interoperability with US weapons and nuclear weapons?
    General Hockenhull comments in the press conference provided credence for Starmer

    However, if Starmer misled about the costs then that is riduculous and will cause an issue for him

    This from Sky news

    Confusion over true cost of Chagos deal

    Earlier today, Sir Keir Starmer said the net cost of the Chagos deal was £3.4bn, with an average cost of £101m a year over the 99-year deal.

    There was confusion at the time as to why the total cost was not £10bn.

    And things were only made murkier when the full agreement between the UK and Mauritius was published.

    It revealed the UK will pay:

    £165m a year for the first three years;
    £120m for years four to 13;
    £120m plus inflation for every year after to year 99;
    £40m as a one-off to a fund for Chagossians;
    £45m a year for 25 years for Mauritian development.
    If inflation were to remain zero for the next century, this would work out to around £10bn over 99 years.

    Assuming an average of 2% inflation, Sky News analysis suggests costs could rise as high as £30bn.

    However, the government is insisting the cost is still just £3.4bn as the long term financing is accounted with a social time preference rate.

    This is "standard" practice and adjusts the value of high spends over the long term as part of cost-benefit analysis and is Treasury sanctioned, the government claims.

    It's a murky area and doesn't help with allegations the government is not being entirely transparent with this issue.

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,452
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    I would expect Starmer to know the law on this. Also he's expending political capital on a deal with Mauritius, which I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do unless he thought it was necessary. Put together that suggests he's is correct on his points.
    I listened to his 'live' press conference with his defence secretary and the army commander who looks after the base, and I think those critising the deal would have benefitted from listening to it as well

    Apparently it will cost approx 100 million per year for a 99 year lease with an option to renew for 40 more years

    The US pays all the operational costs and the deal is backed by the US, NATO, all our allies but apparently opposed by Russia, China and Iran

    I am no fan of Starmer, but on this and having heard the details I have no problem with it
    You stupid berk


    This is how much it costs. It’s been added up - by an expert

    🚨NEW: Chagos deal will cost £30bn

    RENT:
    - £165m a year for the first 3 years
    - £120m a year for years 4-13
    - Then £120m+inflation for years 14-99

    PLUS:
    - £45m a year for 25 years for development
    - £40m one-off for Chagossian fund

    Assuming 2% inflation, total cost is £30.3bn

    https://x.com/tony_diver/status/1925575848976904283?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    It so bad it is mind-numbing
    You can disagree but calling me a stupid berk ?

    It appears that you want to side with Russia, China and Iran v the UK, US, NATO and our allies all of whom approve the deal

    I know which side I am even if I am an old stupid berk !!!!!
    I don’t really care. You’re an idiot

    This guy is a self declared Centrist Dad and political commentator. And usually pro Starmer. Even he can’t believe it

    “Don’t understand how you spend £9
    Billion giving away the Chagos islands and then continue complaining about huge holes in the budget and how brutal cuts need to be made. Just don’t understand how Labour maintain that narrative now”.

    An hour later:


    “So apparently, the Chagos deal won’t cost the UK £9 billion. It will cost us £30 billion.”


    https://x.com/nicholastyrone/status/1925531328256074050?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The whole thing feels suicidally stupid by Labour
    The money side of it is the biggest vulnerability for Labour.

    At the end of the day it’s very difficult for the average voter to digest the minutiae of the deal, but it’s very easy for the average voter to see it and come away with “Starmer gives away our territory, any pays our money for the privilege of doing so.”

    That’ll be hard to combat.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,302
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Very few British voters care about Chagos. Those few who are irate, judging by comments here, are people who were never going to vote Labour anyway. Whatever the rights or wrongs of this decision, it’s not what’s going to decide the next general election, or any election in the UK.
    No it won't decide it. Very few individual things decide an election. It feeds a narrative. That currently being 'when Labour negotiates, Britain loses', and Starmer being happy to give things away.
    There is no upside for SKS in it, there is some downside. And given his polling that's a bad result.
    Things like this do tend to end up hung as an Albatross round the neck too. 'And that stupid bloody Chagos deal'
    You might be underestimating the public. They can raise their game sometimes.
    Nah.theyve sussed him out. He's a wrong un and he does wrong un stuff
    Is this shrewdie public going to suss Nigel Farage out too then before the election? Guess they're bound to.
    No, they figure that out when the change they voted for is just more of the same and he gets bored and flounces again
    You do paint a bleak picture. Could be right but it's not going on my wall.
    I'm done with the lot of them to be fair. I'll vote Galloway or Rupert Lowes new party or maybe Magic Grandpas new one and to hell with the establishment. Absolute arseholes.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,351

    FF43 said:

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    I would expect Starmer to know the law on this. Also he's expending political capital on a deal with Mauritius, which I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do unless he thought it was necessary. Put together that suggests he's is correct on his points.
    I listened to his 'live' press conference with his defence secretary and the army commander who looks after the base, and I think those critising the deal would have benefitted from listening to it as well

    Apparently it will cost approx 100 million per year for a 99 year lease with an option to renew for 40 more years

    The US pays all the operational costs and the deal is backed by the US, NATO, all our allies but apparently opposed by Russia, China and Iran

    I am no fan of Starmer, but on this and having heard the details I have no problem with it
    You have always struck me as someone who likes to be firmly within the rules as you see them - or as state authority figures (in this case Starmer) portrays them.

    However, you must also try have recourse to your own common sense.

    If ownership of this base is in Britain's vital strategic interests, then we must ignore the 'ruling' and retain sovereignty as the only guarantee.

    If the base is no longer an important strategic possession for Britain, we should let those to whom it is a vital strategic possession, the USA, take on the base and its financial liabilities - because anything else at this time is recklessly unnecessary and unaffordable spending, and given that it will probably come out of our defence budget, will make British people less secure in sum. We cannot fire ownership of a base on Diego Garcia at the Russians when they come punting up the Thames can we?

    Whatever Starmer says, and however much he tries to gussy this up as a patriotic step, those truths remain inescapable. I would suggest you don your 'big boy pants' and face up to the fact that Starmer’s premiership is an unfolding disaster, and every democratic means should be used to remove him.
    I have no doubt that Starmer is a disaster and if he provided misleading figures as per Sky report than he is just frankly, stupid
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,654

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    I would expect Starmer to know the law on this. Also he's expending political capital on a deal with Mauritius, which I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do unless he thought it was necessary. Put together that suggests he's is correct on his points.
    I listened to his 'live' press conference with his defence secretary and the army commander who looks after the base, and I think those critising the deal would have benefitted from listening to it as well

    Apparently it will cost approx 100 million per year for a 99 year lease with an option to renew for 40 more years

    The US pays all the operational costs and the deal is backed by the US, NATO, all our allies but apparently opposed by Russia, China and Iran

    I am no fan of Starmer, but on this and having heard the details I have no problem with it
    You stupid berk


    This is how much it costs. It’s been added up - by an expert

    🚨NEW: Chagos deal will cost £30bn

    RENT:
    - £165m a year for the first 3 years
    - £120m a year for years 4-13
    - Then £120m+inflation for years 14-99

    PLUS:
    - £45m a year for 25 years for development
    - £40m one-off for Chagossian fund

    Assuming 2% inflation, total cost is £30.3bn

    https://x.com/tony_diver/status/1925575848976904283?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    It so bad it is mind-numbing
    You can disagree but calling me a stupid berk ?

    It appears that you want to side with Russia, China and Iran v the UK, US, NATO and our allies all of whom approve the deal

    I know which side I am even if I am an old stupid berk !!!!!
    I don’t really care. You’re an idiot

    This guy is a self declared Centrist Dad and political commentator. And usually pro Starmer. Even he can’t believe it

    “Don’t understand how you spend £9
    Billion giving away the Chagos islands and then continue complaining about huge holes in the budget and how brutal cuts need to be made. Just don’t understand how Labour maintain that narrative now”.

    An hour later:


    “So apparently, the Chagos deal won’t cost the UK £9 billion. It will cost us £30 billion.”


    https://x.com/nicholastyrone/status/1925531328256074050?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The whole thing feels suicidally stupid by Labour
    The money side of it is the biggest vulnerability for Labour.

    At the end of the day it’s very difficult for the average voter to digest the minutiae of the deal, but it’s very easy for the average voter to see it and come away with “Starmer gives away our territory, any pays our money for the privilege of doing so.”

    That’ll be hard to combat.
    If only this site had someone with genius level IQ on board we might be able to move the debate beyond that. Oh well, never mind.....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,293

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Very few British voters care about Chagos. Those few who are irate, judging by comments here, are people who were never going to vote Labour anyway. Whatever the rights or wrongs of this decision, it’s not what’s going to decide the next general election, or any election in the UK.
    No it won't decide it. Very few individual things decide an election. It feeds a narrative. That currently being 'when Labour negotiates, Britain loses', and Starmer being happy to give things away.
    There is no upside for SKS in it, there is some downside. And given his polling that's a bad result.
    Things like this do tend to end up hung as an Albatross round the neck too. 'And that stupid bloody Chagos deal'
    You might be underestimating the public. They can raise their game sometimes.
    Nah.theyve sussed him out. He's a wrong un and he does wrong un stuff
    Is this shrewdie public going to suss Nigel Farage out too then before the election? Guess they're bound to.
    No, they figure that out when the change they voted for is just more of the same and he gets bored and flounces again
    You do paint a bleak picture. Could be right but it's not going on my wall.
    I'm done with the lot of them to be fair. I'll vote Galloway or Rupert Lowes new party or maybe Magic Grandpas new one and to hell with the establishment. Absolute arseholes.
    Best not to vote at all if you feel like that. It's like losing your temper and kicking the cat.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,293
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    I would expect Starmer to know the law on this. Also he's expending political capital on a deal with Mauritius, which I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do unless he thought it was necessary. Put together that suggests he's is correct on his points.
    I listened to his 'live' press conference with his defence secretary and the army commander who looks after the base, and I think those critising the deal would have benefitted from listening to it as well

    Apparently it will cost approx 100 million per year for a 99 year lease with an option to renew for 40 more years

    The US pays all the operational costs and the deal is backed by the US, NATO, all our allies but apparently opposed by Russia, China and Iran

    I am no fan of Starmer, but on this and having heard the details I have no problem with it
    You stupid berk


    This is how much it costs. It’s been added up - by an expert

    🚨NEW: Chagos deal will cost £30bn

    RENT:
    - £165m a year for the first 3 years
    - £120m a year for years 4-13
    - Then £120m+inflation for years 14-99

    PLUS:
    - £45m a year for 25 years for development
    - £40m one-off for Chagossian fund

    Assuming 2% inflation, total cost is £30.3bn

    https://x.com/tony_diver/status/1925575848976904283?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    It so bad it is mind-numbing
    You can disagree but calling me a stupid berk ?

    It appears that you want to side with Russia, China and Iran v the UK, US, NATO and our allies all of whom approve the deal

    I know which side I am even if I am an old stupid berk !!!!!
    I don’t really care. You’re an idiot

    This guy is a self declared Centrist Dad and political commentator. And usually pro Starmer. Even he can’t believe it

    “Don’t understand how you spend £9
    Billion giving away the Chagos islands and then continue complaining about huge holes in the budget and how brutal cuts need to be made. Just don’t understand how Labour maintain that narrative now”.

    An hour later:

    “So apparently, the Chagos deal won’t cost the UK £9 billion. It will cost us £30 billion.”

    https://x.com/nicholastyrone/status/1925531328256074050?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The whole thing feels suicidally stupid by Labour
    I think you need a little Rory Stewart "explainer" on this one.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,453

    RIP British Indian Ocean Territory

    (count the months before it effectively becomes Chinese Indian Ocean Territory)

    “Base is a 'unique asset' for Britain, senior officer says
    We're now hearing from senior British Army officer Gen James Hockenhull.
    He says that the base's location provides "immense global reach", making it a "unique asset" for British security.
    "I welcome the long-term certainty that this treaty brings. It will help the British Armed Forces in our efforts to support stability abroad and security at home," Hockenhull says.

    What’s the actual detail on that which would require actual ongoing UK ownership, and not that ownership passed on to India and USA, who sat at the table with us negotiating this?

    Is the bottom line of UK continuing Garcia on a lease, and not someone else holding same lease, continued UK interoperability with US weapons and nuclear weapons?
    General Hockenhull comments in the press conference provided credence for Starmer

    However, if Starmer misled about the costs then that is riduculous and will cause an issue for him

    This from Sky news

    Confusion over true cost of Chagos deal

    Earlier today, Sir Keir Starmer said the net cost of the Chagos deal was £3.4bn, with an average cost of £101m a year over the 99-year deal.

    There was confusion at the time as to why the total cost was not £10bn.

    And things were only made murkier when the full agreement between the UK and Mauritius was published.

    It revealed the UK will pay:

    £165m a year for the first three years;
    £120m for years four to 13;
    £120m plus inflation for every year after to year 99;
    £40m as a one-off to a fund for Chagossians;
    £45m a year for 25 years for Mauritian development.
    If inflation were to remain zero for the next century, this would work out to around £10bn over 99 years.

    Assuming an average of 2% inflation, Sky News analysis suggests costs could rise as high as £30bn.

    However, the government is insisting the cost is still just £3.4bn as the long term financing is accounted with a social time preference rate.

    This is "standard" practice and adjusts the value of high spends over the long term as part of cost-benefit analysis and is Treasury sanctioned, the government claims.

    It's a murky area and doesn't help with allegations the government is not being entirely transparent with this issue.

    Seems like a bargain compared to brexit.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,302
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Very few British voters care about Chagos. Those few who are irate, judging by comments here, are people who were never going to vote Labour anyway. Whatever the rights or wrongs of this decision, it’s not what’s going to decide the next general election, or any election in the UK.
    No it won't decide it. Very few individual things decide an election. It feeds a narrative. That currently being 'when Labour negotiates, Britain loses', and Starmer being happy to give things away.
    There is no upside for SKS in it, there is some downside. And given his polling that's a bad result.
    Things like this do tend to end up hung as an Albatross round the neck too. 'And that stupid bloody Chagos deal'
    You might be underestimating the public. They can raise their game sometimes.
    Nah.theyve sussed him out. He's a wrong un and he does wrong un stuff
    Is this shrewdie public going to suss Nigel Farage out too then before the election? Guess they're bound to.
    No, they figure that out when the change they voted for is just more of the same and he gets bored and flounces again
    You do paint a bleak picture. Could be right but it's not going on my wall.
    I'm done with the lot of them to be fair. I'll vote Galloway or Rupert Lowes new party or maybe Magic Grandpas new one and to hell with the establishment. Absolute arseholes.
    Best not to vote at all if you feel like that. It's like losing your temper and kicking the cat.
    I'd never kick a cat. Cats are our overlords.
    And I always vote. So I can be validly grouchy
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,186
    kinabalu said:

    Real anger directed at Starmer from the Chagossians:

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1925578892540071958

    Some Chagossians not 'The' Chagossians.
    Link?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,293

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Very few British voters care about Chagos. Those few who are irate, judging by comments here, are people who were never going to vote Labour anyway. Whatever the rights or wrongs of this decision, it’s not what’s going to decide the next general election, or any election in the UK.
    No it won't decide it. Very few individual things decide an election. It feeds a narrative. That currently being 'when Labour negotiates, Britain loses', and Starmer being happy to give things away.
    There is no upside for SKS in it, there is some downside. And given his polling that's a bad result.
    Things like this do tend to end up hung as an Albatross round the neck too. 'And that stupid bloody Chagos deal'
    You might be underestimating the public. They can raise their game sometimes.
    Nah.theyve sussed him out. He's a wrong un and he does wrong un stuff
    Is this shrewdie public going to suss Nigel Farage out too then before the election? Guess they're bound to.
    No, they figure that out when the change they voted for is just more of the same and he gets bored and flounces again
    You do paint a bleak picture. Could be right but it's not going on my wall.
    I'm done with the lot of them to be fair. I'll vote Galloway or Rupert Lowes new party or maybe Magic Grandpas new one and to hell with the establishment. Absolute arseholes.
    Best not to vote at all if you feel like that. It's like losing your temper and kicking the cat.
    I'd never kick a cat. Cats are our overlords.
    And I always vote. So I can be validly grouchy
    Yes, cats rule. Mine just bit me but it's me saying sorry.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,302
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chagos.
    To 95% the story is simply he's given away our territory and is paying to lease it back. Any further nuance pro or anti is lost

    Possibly. But polls did show public backing for it.
    As they did for most of the Truss budget in the immediate aftermath.
    Many people are not invested, but those that are pissed off are REALLY pissed off - its one of 'those' issues (one of the few things my Dad has been properly exercised about lately for example instead of just grumpy about). And the news channels are already running interviews with furious Chagossians which will bring fresh perspective to some.
    It has potential to vastly outweigh it's actual importance. It also has strong 'Albatross' potential for SKS
    Very few British voters care about Chagos. Those few who are irate, judging by comments here, are people who were never going to vote Labour anyway. Whatever the rights or wrongs of this decision, it’s not what’s going to decide the next general election, or any election in the UK.
    No it won't decide it. Very few individual things decide an election. It feeds a narrative. That currently being 'when Labour negotiates, Britain loses', and Starmer being happy to give things away.
    There is no upside for SKS in it, there is some downside. And given his polling that's a bad result.
    Things like this do tend to end up hung as an Albatross round the neck too. 'And that stupid bloody Chagos deal'
    You might be underestimating the public. They can raise their game sometimes.
    Nah.theyve sussed him out. He's a wrong un and he does wrong un stuff
    Is this shrewdie public going to suss Nigel Farage out too then before the election? Guess they're bound to.
    No, they figure that out when the change they voted for is just more of the same and he gets bored and flounces again
    You do paint a bleak picture. Could be right but it's not going on my wall.
    I'm done with the lot of them to be fair. I'll vote Galloway or Rupert Lowes new party or maybe Magic Grandpas new one and to hell with the establishment. Absolute arseholes.
    Best not to vote at all if you feel like that. It's like losing your temper and kicking the cat.
    I'd never kick a cat. Cats are our overlords.
    And I always vote. So I can be validly grouchy
    Yes, cats rule. Mine just bit me but it's me saying sorry.
    Absolutely. The bite was clearly affectionate in any case. And if a cat ignores you it is always but always justified due to being on official cat business
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,293

    kinabalu said:

    Real anger directed at Starmer from the Chagossians:

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1925578892540071958

    Some Chagossians not 'The' Chagossians.
    Link?
    The Beeb! Couldn't you find it?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,186
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Real anger directed at Starmer from the Chagossians:

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1925578892540071958

    Some Chagossians not 'The' Chagossians.
    Link?
    The Beeb! Couldn't you find it?
    Can you? I provided the "anti" side.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,293
    Dura_Ace said:

    RIP British Indian Ocean Territory

    (count the months before it effectively becomes Chinese Indian Ocean Territory)

    “Base is a 'unique asset' for Britain, senior officer says
    We're now hearing from senior British Army officer Gen James Hockenhull.
    He says that the base's location provides "immense global reach", making it a "unique asset" for British security.
    "I welcome the long-term certainty that this treaty brings. It will help the British Armed Forces in our efforts to support stability abroad and security at home," Hockenhull says.

    What’s the actual detail on that which would require actual ongoing UK ownership, and not that ownership passed on to India and USA, who sat at the table with us negotiating this?

    Is the bottom line of UK continuing Garcia on a lease, and not someone else holding same lease, continued UK interoperability with US weapons and nuclear weapons?
    General Hockenhull comments in the press conference provided credence for Starmer

    However, if Starmer misled about the costs then that is riduculous and will cause an issue for him

    This from Sky news

    Confusion over true cost of Chagos deal

    Earlier today, Sir Keir Starmer said the net cost of the Chagos deal was £3.4bn, with an average cost of £101m a year over the 99-year deal.

    There was confusion at the time as to why the total cost was not £10bn.

    And things were only made murkier when the full agreement between the UK and Mauritius was published.

    It revealed the UK will pay:

    £165m a year for the first three years;
    £120m for years four to 13;
    £120m plus inflation for every year after to year 99;
    £40m as a one-off to a fund for Chagossians;
    £45m a year for 25 years for Mauritian development.
    If inflation were to remain zero for the next century, this would work out to around £10bn over 99 years.

    Assuming an average of 2% inflation, Sky News analysis suggests costs could rise as high as £30bn.

    However, the government is insisting the cost is still just £3.4bn as the long term financing is accounted with a social time preference rate.

    This is "standard" practice and adjusts the value of high spends over the long term as part of cost-benefit analysis and is Treasury sanctioned, the government claims.

    It's a murky area and doesn't help with allegations the government is not being entirely transparent with this issue.

    Seems like a bargain compared to brexit.
    All this concern about £££ from Leavers suddenly. Go figure.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,551
    The Chagos deal has to be voted on so the costs will have to be shown clearly. It’s somewhat confusing at the moment as to how the 3.4 billion pound figure was reached .
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,302
    Lol Harvard has been blocked from enrolling foreign students.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,293

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Real anger directed at Starmer from the Chagossians:

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1925578892540071958

    Some Chagossians not 'The' Chagossians.
    Link?
    The Beeb! Couldn't you find it?
    Can you? I provided the "anti" side.
    Apols, I'm on my phone and can't copy links, old fart that I am.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,302
    edited May 22
    nico67 said:

    The Chagos deal has to be voted on so the costs will have to be shown clearly. It’s somewhat confusing at the moment as to how the 3.4 billion pound figure was reached .

    No vote required. It has to be laid before parliament for 21 days and they can vote to delay it for 21 days (repeatedly if they want) but I believe no approval is required for it to be enforced

    Costs will be shown in this period though
  • novanova Posts: 805
    nico67 said:

    FF43 said:

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    I would expect Starmer to know the law on this. Also he's expending political capital on a deal with Mauritius, which I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do unless he thought it was necessary. Put together that suggests he's is correct on his points.
    I listened to his 'live' press conference with his defence secretary and the army commander who looks after the base, and I think those critising the deal would have benefitted from listening to it as well

    Apparently it will cost approx 100 million per year for a 99 year lease with an option to renew for 40 more years

    The US pays all the operational costs and the deal is backed by the US, NATO, all our allies but apparently opposed by Russia, China and Iran

    I am no fan of Starmer, but on this and having heard the details I have no problem with it
    It’s quite complicated looking at the details . The actual tv headlines don’t have time to go through all the detail .
    It's also more than a touch confusing that the 'breakdown' that keeps getting reported, mentioned inflation.

    But then Downing Street have come out and said the £3.4b figure is in 'today's money' because the yearly payments will gradually be eroded due to inflation.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,551

    Lol Harvard has been blocked from enrolling foreign students.

    What’s funny about it . It’s outrageous that the US government is interfering in this way .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,909

    Nick Lloyd
    @nick_lloy

    Astonishing small print of the Chagos surrender deal

    https://x.com/nick_lloy/status/1925611179436593306
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,302
    nova said:

    nico67 said:

    FF43 said:

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    I would expect Starmer to know the law on this. Also he's expending political capital on a deal with Mauritius, which I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do unless he thought it was necessary. Put together that suggests he's is correct on his points.
    I listened to his 'live' press conference with his defence secretary and the army commander who looks after the base, and I think those critising the deal would have benefitted from listening to it as well

    Apparently it will cost approx 100 million per year for a 99 year lease with an option to renew for 40 more years

    The US pays all the operational costs and the deal is backed by the US, NATO, all our allies but apparently opposed by Russia, China and Iran

    I am no fan of Starmer, but on this and having heard the details I have no problem with it
    It’s quite complicated looking at the details . The actual tv headlines don’t have time to go through all the detail .
    It's also more than a touch confusing that the 'breakdown' that keeps getting reported, mentioned inflation.

    But then Downing Street have come out and said the £3.4b figure is in 'today's money' because the yearly payments will gradually be eroded due to inflation.
    Made up figures like the 22 billion imaginary hole
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,358

    FF43 said:

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    I would expect Starmer to know the law on this. Also he's expending political capital on a deal with Mauritius, which I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do unless he thought it was necessary. Put together that suggests he's is correct on his points.
    I listened to his 'live' press conference with his defence secretary and the army commander who looks after the base, and I think those critising the deal would have benefitted from listening to it as well

    Apparently it will cost approx 100 million per year for a 99 year lease with an option to renew for 40 more years

    The US pays all the operational costs and the deal is backed by the US, NATO, all our allies but apparently opposed by Russia, China and Iran

    I am no fan of Starmer, but on this and having heard the details I have no problem with it
    You have always struck me as someone who likes to be firmly within the rules as you see them - or as state authority figures (in this case Starmer) portrays them.

    However, you must also try have recourse to your own common sense.

    If ownership of this base is in Britain's vital strategic interests, then we must ignore the 'ruling' and retain sovereignty as the only guarantee.

    If the base is no longer an important strategic possession for Britain, we should let those to whom it is a vital strategic possession, the USA, take on the base and its financial liabilities - because anything else at this time is recklessly unnecessary and unaffordable spending, and given that it will probably come out of our defence budget, will make British people less secure in sum. We cannot fire ownership of a base on Diego Garcia at the Russians when they come punting up the Thames can we?

    Whatever Starmer says, and however much he tries to gussy this up as a patriotic step, those truths remain inescapable. I would suggest you don your 'big boy pants' and face up to the fact that Starmer’s premiership is an unfolding disaster, and every democratic means should be used to remove him.
    I have no doubt that Starmer is a disaster and if he provided misleading figures as per Sky report than he is just frankly, stupid
    X
    Andrew Neil@afneil
    The implication is that it’s somehow a result of Labour government policy.
    But of course it isn’t.
    And you know it isn’t.
    The Starmer government is gaining quite the reputation for misleading and spreading untruths.
    https://x.com/afneil/status/1925555407520473357

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,321
    Mauritian lawyer boasts about courting Starmer from the time before he became an MP:

    https://www.temple.mu/discussingthechagosissue/

    image
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,551


    Nick Lloyd
    @nick_lloy

    Astonishing small print of the Chagos surrender deal

    https://x.com/nick_lloy/status/1925611179436593306

    Expeditiously is subjective and means nothing . I’m more interested in the cost which seems to be opaque !
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,351
    nico67 said:

    The Chagos deal has to be voted on so the costs will have to be shown clearly. It’s somewhat confusing at the moment as to how the 3.4 billion pound figure was reached .

    I hope Starmer has not misled the public at the conference as that would be unforgiveable

    He clearly said the annual cost would be no more than an aircraft carrier at sea for a year excluding the planes, and repeated this claim
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,095
    nico67 said:

    Lol Harvard has been blocked from enrolling foreign students.

    What’s funny about it . It’s outrageous that the US government is interfering in this way .
    nico67 said:

    Lol Harvard has been blocked from enrolling foreign students.

    What’s funny about it . It’s outrageous that the US government is interfering in this way .
    Land of the Free.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,754

    Lol Harvard has been blocked from enrolling foreign students.

    If so, that is bad for us, isn't it? Certainly for the British students who would have gone there.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,302
    nico67 said:

    Lol Harvard has been blocked from enrolling foreign students.

    What’s funny about it . It’s outrageous that the US government is interfering in this way .
    The cluster fuck that is America is funny. I'm not going to spend my life breathlessly outraged by absolutely everything. Theres plenty at home for that
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,551
    nova said:

    nico67 said:

    FF43 said:

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    I would expect Starmer to know the law on this. Also he's expending political capital on a deal with Mauritius, which I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do unless he thought it was necessary. Put together that suggests he's is correct on his points.
    I listened to his 'live' press conference with his defence secretary and the army commander who looks after the base, and I think those critising the deal would have benefitted from listening to it as well

    Apparently it will cost approx 100 million per year for a 99 year lease with an option to renew for 40 more years

    The US pays all the operational costs and the deal is backed by the US, NATO, all our allies but apparently opposed by Russia, China and Iran

    I am no fan of Starmer, but on this and having heard the details I have no problem with it
    It’s quite complicated looking at the details . The actual tv headlines don’t have time to go through all the detail .
    It's also more than a touch confusing that the 'breakdown' that keeps getting reported, mentioned inflation.

    But then Downing Street have come out and said the £3.4b figure is in 'today's money' because the yearly payments will gradually be eroded due to inflation.
    It’s turning into the Da Vinci Code !
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,991
    edited May 22

    nova said:

    nico67 said:

    FF43 said:

    Listening to Starmer on his signing the Chagos deal I do not see it a problem and certainly nothing for reform or the conservatives to get all het up about

    I would expect Starmer to know the law on this. Also he's expending political capital on a deal with Mauritius, which I'm pretty sure he wouldn't do unless he thought it was necessary. Put together that suggests he's is correct on his points.
    I listened to his 'live' press conference with his defence secretary and the army commander who looks after the base, and I think those critising the deal would have benefitted from listening to it as well

    Apparently it will cost approx 100 million per year for a 99 year lease with an option to renew for 40 more years

    The US pays all the operational costs and the deal is backed by the US, NATO, all our allies but apparently opposed by Russia, China and Iran

    I am no fan of Starmer, but on this and having heard the details I have no problem with it
    It’s quite complicated looking at the details . The actual tv headlines don’t have time to go through all the detail .
    It's also more than a touch confusing that the 'breakdown' that keeps getting reported, mentioned inflation.

    But then Downing Street have come out and said the £3.4b figure is in 'today's money' because the yearly payments will gradually be eroded due to inflation.
    Made up figures like the 22 billion imaginary hole
    That's interesting because the black hole absolutely wasn't imaginary and no-one serious thought it was. In fact the biggest problem this administration has in governing is not increasing taxes enough. The political calculation may be different however - raising taxes doesn't play well generally.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,351
    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    RIP British Indian Ocean Territory

    (count the months before it effectively becomes Chinese Indian Ocean Territory)

    “Base is a 'unique asset' for Britain, senior officer says
    We're now hearing from senior British Army officer Gen James Hockenhull.
    He says that the base's location provides "immense global reach", making it a "unique asset" for British security.
    "I welcome the long-term certainty that this treaty brings. It will help the British Armed Forces in our efforts to support stability abroad and security at home," Hockenhull says.

    What’s the actual detail on that which would require actual ongoing UK ownership, and not that ownership passed on to India and USA, who sat at the table with us negotiating this?

    Is the bottom line of UK continuing Garcia on a lease, and not someone else holding same lease, continued UK interoperability with US weapons and nuclear weapons?
    General Hockenhull comments in the press conference provided credence for Starmer

    However, if Starmer misled about the costs then that is riduculous and will cause an issue for him

    This from Sky news

    Confusion over true cost of Chagos deal

    Earlier today, Sir Keir Starmer said the net cost of the Chagos deal was £3.4bn, with an average cost of £101m a year over the 99-year deal.

    There was confusion at the time as to why the total cost was not £10bn.

    And things were only made murkier when the full agreement between the UK and Mauritius was published.

    It revealed the UK will pay:

    £165m a year for the first three years;
    £120m for years four to 13;
    £120m plus inflation for every year after to year 99;
    £40m as a one-off to a fund for Chagossians;
    £45m a year for 25 years for Mauritian development.
    If inflation were to remain zero for the next century, this would work out to around £10bn over 99 years.

    Assuming an average of 2% inflation, Sky News analysis suggests costs could rise as high as £30bn.

    However, the government is insisting the cost is still just £3.4bn as the long term financing is accounted with a social time preference rate.

    This is "standard" practice and adjusts the value of high spends over the long term as part of cost-benefit analysis and is Treasury sanctioned, the government claims.

    It's a murky area and doesn't help with allegations the government is not being entirely transparent with this issue.

    Seems like a bargain compared to brexit.
    All this concern about £££ from Leavers suddenly. Go figure.
    Its not the £££ that worry me more has Starmer misled the public on the costs ?

    There is a vast difference between the £3.5 billion he quoted and £30 billion now suggested
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,302

    Lol Harvard has been blocked from enrolling foreign students.

    If so, that is bad for us, isn't it? Certainly for the British students who would have gone there.
    It's bad for anyone non US who might have been planning to go, yeah. Sometimes you just have to chuckle at the goings on or, you know, life would be sad
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,551

    nico67 said:

    The Chagos deal has to be voted on so the costs will have to be shown clearly. It’s somewhat confusing at the moment as to how the 3.4 billion pound figure was reached .

    I hope Starmer has not misled the public at the conference as that would be unforgiveable

    He clearly said the annual cost would be no more than an aircraft carrier at sea for a year excluding the planes, and repeated this claim
    He surely couldn’t be that stupid . I’ve looked at the figures again and again and just can’t work out how they got to 3.4 billion pounds .
Sign In or Register to comment.