politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Delaying till after the election the Chilcot report on Iraq
At PMQs today EdM opened by asserting that his party wants to Chilcot Inquire report to be published as soon as possible. Maybe but the he last thing, surely, that Labour wants in the run-up to May 7th is something to remind voters of the Iraq War although Ed has said that he personally was opposed. The war. it will be recalled, started almost 12 years ago.
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Don't think it makes the blindest bit of difference to the election Mike, sorry.0
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Back to the fun on the last thread, Taffys is you think an outright win for Cameron of 30+ means he would last 18 months then you know diddly squat about British politics. Go and do the maths of what that would look like in the Commons.
Sunil, did you see my ELBOW question? Out of interest, when was the last time there was a Conservative lead?0 -
Yebut did Ed actually vote against setting up the inquiry?audreyanne said:Don't think it makes the blindest bit of difference to the election Mike, sorry.
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I can't see where 35 Conservative gains are coming from. Half those would have to come from Labour. I could see the Conservatives picking up the odd seat here and there (say Southampton Itchen) but nowhere near enough for a net gain in double figures.audreyanne said:Back to the fun on the last thread, Taffys is you think an outright win for Cameron of 30+ means he would last 18 months then you know diddly squat about British politics. Go and do the maths of what that would look like in the Commons.
Sunil, did you see my ELBOW question? Out of interest, when was the last time there was a Conservative lead?
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Dunno and don't really care. I don't think anyone outside Westminster and a few hacks gives a flying fig about Chilcot. It's been and done, a long time ago and Labour paid their dues for it. The world turned a few times since then and we have other problems on our horizon regardless of whether we should or shouldn't have marched on Iraq all those years back.perdix said:
Yebut did Ed actually vote against setting up the inquiry?audreyanne said:Don't think it makes the blindest bit of difference to the election Mike, sorry.
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I know you can't but then your predictions haven't exactly been accurate of lateSean_F said:
I can't see where 35 Conservative gains are coming from. Half those would have to come from Labour. I could see the Conservatives picking up the odd seat here and there (say Southampton Itchen) but nowhere near enough for a net gain in double figures.audreyanne said:Back to the fun on the last thread, Taffys is you think an outright win for Cameron of 30+ means he would last 18 months then you know diddly squat about British politics. Go and do the maths of what that would look like in the Commons.
Sunil, did you see my ELBOW question? Out of interest, when was the last time there was a Conservative lead?
I'm expecting significant gains from the LD's in England. More nearer the time. I'm looking forward to some proper analysis next month when the polls should start settling after the mid-winter hiatus.0 -
FPT
**Crossover alert**
Although the simple average of the week's five polls so far gives a teeny Labour lead of 0.2%, ELBOW for these polls gives a very slim Tory advantage of 0.06%!
Con 32.33
Lab 32.27
UKIP 14.1
LD 8.5
Green 7.6
Con lead of 0.06!
Caveat emptor being this is only a mid-week figure - let's wait until all of this week's polls come out before celebrating*/squeaky bumming*!
(* delete as appropriate!)
@audreyanne
ELBOW has only been up and running since August - Labour has always been in the lead on a week-by-week basis since then - the lowest lead was 0.5% on November 23rd.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5568829476564131860 -
What predictions?audreyanne said:
I know you can't but then your predictions haven't exactly been accurate of lateSean_F said:
I can't see where 35 Conservative gains are coming from. Half those would have to come from Labour. I could see the Conservatives picking up the odd seat here and there (say Southampton Itchen) but nowhere near enough for a net gain in double figures.audreyanne said:Back to the fun on the last thread, Taffys is you think an outright win for Cameron of 30+ means he would last 18 months then you know diddly squat about British politics. Go and do the maths of what that would look like in the Commons.
Sunil, did you see my ELBOW question? Out of interest, when was the last time there was a Conservative lead?
I'm expecting significant gains from the LD's in England. More nearer the time. I'm looking forward to some proper analysis next month when the polls should start settling after the mid-winter hiatus.
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We've cut the odds on the Tories in a few Green friendly seats. I've had a little bet myself on a Tory hold in Kemptown.
http://politicalbookie.com/2015/01/21/the-five-seats-that-a-green-surge-could-hand-to-the-tories/0 -
There's not a chance the Tories are holding on to Kemptown or Hove.
Speaking as a Brightonian.0 -
I'm expecting significant gains from the LD's in England. More nearer the time.
Want to name any names Ms Anne?
Eastleigh...?? Kingston Surbiton...???0 -
BTW nice cartoon, Marf!0
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Just got home for lunch after listening to PMQ's (in the car) for the first time for ages. Ed Miliband was hapless and Dave just breezed thro it. No need to bully Ed, he made a dick of himself... all by himself.0
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Mid-week ELBOWs should be banned!Sunil_Prasannan said:FPT
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"Oh, you look nervous! Is it the ELBOWs? You wanna know how I got 'em?"murali_s said:
Mid-week ELBOWs should be banned!Sunil_Prasannan said:FPT
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Go and do the maths of what that would look like in the Commons.
I'm simply making the point that a con maj of 30 plus would see David Cameron surrounded by more people who dislike him than the current make up of the HoC. Far more.
Our lady of Thatcher was Queen of the World in 1990, and yet was still unseated
And all of the people who conspired to beat her, blues with a pink edge like yourself, cast the party into the wilderness for a generation after that.
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7-4 available on this one at Betfair, looks a decent enough price to me.shadsy said:We've cut the odds on the Tories in a few Green friendly seats. I've had a little bet myself on a Tory hold in Kemptown.
http://politicalbookie.com/2015/01/21/the-five-seats-that-a-green-surge-could-hand-to-the-tories/0 -
"We have other problems on our horizon regardless of whether we should or shouldn't have marched on Iraq all those years back."
And at least a few of those problems wouldn't be nearly so bad if the US and UK hadn't.0 -
Sturgeon says the SNP would be prepared to vote on 'matters of English health....'
Talk about a can of worms.0 -
I could easily see the Conservatives picking up 10 or so seats from the Lib Dems. But, I'm sure there'll be net losses to Labour.taffys said:Go and do the maths of what that would look like in the Commons.
I'm simply making the point that a con maj of 30 plus would see David Cameron surrounded by more people who dislike him than the current make up of the HoC. Far more.
Our lady of Thatcher was Queen of the World in 1990, and yet was still unseated
And all of the people who conspired to beat her, blues with a pink edge like yourself, cast the party into the wilderness for a generation after that.
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So you think the LibDems will only lose 10 seats? Or do you see them losing some to Labour? As for Conservative losses to Labour, I'm tempted to do an Isam and say 'betcha' but for the sake of this site's sanity I'll refrain and watch and wait.Sean_F said:
I could easily see the Conservatives picking up 10 or so seats from the Lib Dems. But, I'm sure there'll be net losses to Labour.taffys said:Go and do the maths of what that would look like in the Commons.
I'm simply making the point that a con maj of 30 plus would see David Cameron surrounded by more people who dislike him than the current make up of the HoC. Far more.
Our lady of Thatcher was Queen of the World in 1990, and yet was still unseated
And all of the people who conspired to beat her, blues with a pink edge like yourself, cast the party into the wilderness for a generation after that.0 -
After the pasting Ed took in The Commons today it's nice of OGH to come up with some crumbs of comfort for him, even if this one is scraping the barrel...0
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Go and do the maths of what that would look like in the Commons.
I wonder what odds you could get on a tory net seats gain over labour...0 -
Why are LDs wanting publication of Chilcot, principle or electoral advantage?
It is odd that both world wars in C20 were shorter than the wait for this bloody report. Nothing to fear, nothing to hide.
Even The Franks Report took less time to throw whitewash all over The Falklands.
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www.politicalbetting.comaudreyanne said:As for Conservative losses to Labour, I'm tempted to do an Isam and say 'betcha' but for the sake of this site's sanity I'll refrain and watch and wait.
The clue is in the name Audrey Anne, fire away with odds.0 -
Excellent cartoon.
The best comment at PMQs about Chilcott was the one about the concern that had been expressed before the last election that its publication might influence the result of that.
It is now ancient history and the detail of why and how the earlier inquiries, particularly Lord Hutton's, reached such incredible conclusions so inconsistent with the facts they had unearthed is not going to butter many parsnips for anyone, not even the Lib Dems.0 -
If the Conservative leadership themselves have doubts about the wisdom of a Conservative majority then why shouldn't the voters?
It's hardly a surprise they find it so hard to convince people to vote for them.0 -
Thanks Sunil. So the first time in nearly six months that the Conservatives have taken the lead.Sunil_Prasannan said:FPT
**Crossover alert**
Although the simple average of the week's five polls so far gives a teeny Labour lead of 0.2%, ELBOW for these polls gives a very slim Tory advantage of 0.06%!
Con 32.33
Lab 32.27
UKIP 14.1
LD 8.5
Green 7.6
Con lead of 0.06!
Caveat emptor being this is only a mid-week figure - let's wait until all of this week's polls come out before celebrating*/squeaky bumming*!
(* delete as appropriate!)
@audreyanne
ELBOW has only been up and running since August - Labour has always been in the lead on a week-by-week basis since then - the lowest lead was 0.5% on November 23rd.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/556882947656413186
I'll keep the champagne in the fridge for now, all the same
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FPTRichard_Nabavi said:
What negotiating team? Negotiation hasn't started, for the very good reason that it is not (yet) UK government policy, since the LibDems didn't sign up to it in this parliament.Casino_Royale said:The truth is Cameron hasn't led and got his negotiating team in order.
And yet the public is supposed to believe that we will go from a standing start in May this year, possibly June, to an agreed and negotiated set of proposals that the public can use for the basis of a referendum in 18 months ? Given usual EU negotiating speed I doubt they will have agreed on the selection of wine to serve at the opening dinner by then!0 -
I've got to get back to work but for whoever asked me about which seats I do have some in mind, but why don't you just Baxterise the latest YouGov and you'll get a massive long list of LD to Cons gains. That'll do as a rough n' ready starter.0
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I'd expect about 25 Lib Dem losses overall.audreyanne said:
So you think the LibDems will only lose 10 seats? Or do you see them losing some to Labour? As for Conservative losses to Labour, I'm tempted to do an Isam and say 'betcha' but for the sake of this site's sanity I'll refrain and watch and wait.Sean_F said:
I could easily see the Conservatives picking up 10 or so seats from the Lib Dems. But, I'm sure there'll be net losses to Labour.taffys said:Go and do the maths of what that would look like in the Commons.
I'm simply making the point that a con maj of 30 plus would see David Cameron surrounded by more people who dislike him than the current make up of the HoC. Far more.
Our lady of Thatcher was Queen of the World in 1990, and yet was still unseated
And all of the people who conspired to beat her, blues with a pink edge like yourself, cast the party into the wilderness for a generation after that.
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Regardless of whether the report would change votes, it is a disgrace that a report on the most important act any government can carry out - sending us into war - is taking so long.
In deciding on the kind of government we elect this year we should have information about what happened, what went wong and what lessons should be learnt.0 -
On topic: it's in quite a few people's interest for there to be a leak of the draft report, or of parts of it at least, before the GE. I await developments.0
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This thread feels weird yet very typical.
Mike finds (very) thin gruel for Labour in the header, and the Conservatives are ramped way above a realistic view in the comments.0 -
I await developments.
With these things its often the cover up that's worse than the sin.
I doubt whether the findings of this enquiry could hurt labour twelve years on, but the stink of a cover up perhaps could.0 -
My concern would be possibly 3-4k Conservative Voters in most constituencies drifting off to UKIP, not enough to win anything, but enough to screw chances of taking these sort of seats, and potentially of holding marginals. 2.5m UKIP votes is about 3,800 per seat. LDs might keep more than we think.Sean_F said:
I'd expect about 25 Lib Dem losses overall.audreyanne said:
So you think the LibDems will only lose 10 seats? Or do you see them losing some to Labour? As for Conservative losses to Labour, I'm tempted to do an Isam and say 'betcha' but for the sake of this site's sanity I'll refrain and watch and wait.Sean_F said:
I could easily see the Conservatives picking up 10 or so seats from the Lib Dems. But, I'm sure there'll be net losses to Labour.taffys said:Go and do the maths of what that would look like in the Commons.
I'm simply making the point that a con maj of 30 plus would see David Cameron surrounded by more people who dislike him than the current make up of the HoC. Far more.
Our lady of Thatcher was Queen of the World in 1990, and yet was still unseated
And all of the people who conspired to beat her, blues with a pink edge like yourself, cast the party into the wilderness for a generation after that.
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How would you split those between SNP, Labour and ConservativeSean_F said:
I'd expect about 25 Lib Dem losses overall.audreyanne said:
So you think the LibDems will only lose 10 seats? Or do you see them losing some to Labour? As for Conservative losses to Labour, I'm tempted to do an Isam and say 'betcha' but for the sake of this site's sanity I'll refrain and watch and wait.Sean_F said:
I could easily see the Conservatives picking up 10 or so seats from the Lib Dems. But, I'm sure there'll be net losses to Labour.taffys said:Go and do the maths of what that would look like in the Commons.
I'm simply making the point that a con maj of 30 plus would see David Cameron surrounded by more people who dislike him than the current make up of the HoC. Far more.
Our lady of Thatcher was Queen of the World in 1990, and yet was still unseated
And all of the people who conspired to beat her, blues with a pink edge like yourself, cast the party into the wilderness for a generation after that. >? 0 -
I broadly agree with that:everyone has already made their minds up, and still many of them are prepared to vote Labour. Even so, at the margin, reminding the Red Liberals about quite how bad the Labour government was may tip some of them away from Labour, towards the Greens or even back to the LibDems. It won't be a big effect, though.taffys said:I doubt whether the findings of this enquiry could hurt labour twelve years on.
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O/T Betting tip for Australian Open tennis in the early hours. ISNER to beat Andreas Haider-Maurer 3-0 in sets. This is evens with StanJames.com and looks very likely. ISNER has a huge serve and the fast service will make it hard for him to be broken by Haider-Maurer. In his 1st round match ISNER struck 31 aces with 3 double faults. He was winning 88% of first serves and got a pretty decent number of first serves in too (69%) for a big server. ISNER wasn't broken. His opponent tonight/tomorrow hit 7 aces and 7 double faults and was broken on 3 occasions having faced 8 break points. I can't see any of the sets getting to tiebreaks, but even if they did ISNER has the experience and firepower to see them out. I'm confident there will be a 3-0 win, which I'd say is a 80-85% likelihood rather than 50% which evens implies.0
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Yes. Ed started off with his usual conciliatory question but today it was to tell Cam that 2+2=5 re the Chilcott enquiry.SquareRoot said:Just got home for lunch after listening to PMQ's (in the car) for the first time for ages. Ed Miliband was hapless and Dave just breezed thro it. No need to bully Ed, he made a dick of himself... all by himself.
Which gave Cam the excuse to tell him that 2+2=4 (Lab didn't vote for it) for the rest of the session.
(Edit: I can get more tortuous with my analogies if anyone would prefer.)0 -
The Army will not come out of Chilcot very well.Richard_Nabavi said:
I broadly agree with that:everyone has already made their minds up, and still many of them are prepared to vote Labour. Even so, at the margin, reminding the Red Liberals about quite how bad the Labour government was may tip some of them away from Labour, towards the Greens or even back to the LibDems. It won't be a big effect, though.taffys said:I doubt whether the findings of this enquiry could hurt labour twelve years on.
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Mr. Manson, d'you know if the old stats page that Betfair used to have for tennis will come back? For reasons that are beyond me they seem to have done away with it.0
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I dont know why people are criticising the time taken to produce the Chilcot report - he'll beat Saville by years! Wasnt the Inquiries Act 2005 meant to limit the time taken to produce such reports (and their cost)?
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It would need a few months to see if a new, improved, hardcore Cam emerged from the flames of the Coalition.taffys said:Go and do the maths of what that would look like in the Commons.
I'm simply making the point that a con maj of 30 plus would see David Cameron surrounded by more people who dislike him than the current make up of the HoC. Far more.
Our lady of Thatcher was Queen of the World in 1990, and yet was still unseated
And all of the people who conspired to beat her, blues with a pink edge like yourself, cast the party into the wilderness for a generation after that.
If it was transparently obvious that "this is it" and there is nothing but blancmange, then yes I see him getting hoofed out.
That said, I would think of tearing up my membership card if the lunatics took over the asylum under, say, Owen Paterson.
I think Cam has played a blinder in the circs but I want to see some of the iron fist which I have allowed him to hide 'cos of the Coalition.0 -
I reckon the equations for next Gov't are:
Con + DUP + UKIP >/ 326 = Con Minority
Con + LD >/ 326 = Continuation of the coalition
Lab + LD >/ 326 = Lib-Lab or minority (No idea which, on both)
Lab + SNP >/ 326 = Lab Minority (Probably) or Lab-SNP Coalition (Smaller chance)
Combinations of Lab & UKIP >/ 326 or more likely Con + SNP >/ 326 will NOT form those Governments. Quite sure of that - those two bring in a 2nd election I think.0 -
Afternoon all
For those who seem able to predict a raft of Conservative gains from the Liberal Democrats, the Ashcroft constituency polls told a different story. Some losses, yes, but not wholesale.
As for life under a Conservative majority Government, as 1992-97 showed, a small (less than 20) majority doesn't come without problems. In addition, the Govenrment will be paralysed by the EU Referendum in 2017 which will dominate everything else.
So the choice in May is between a Labour Government paralysed by its ineffectiveness and a Conservative Government paralysed by its introspection.
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O/T cricket betting tips - World Cup
Both with Paddy Power. The first bet is the better value but you may find you are allowed to stake more on the second.
They've simply got this line all wrong for a 49-game tournament including several minnows, and played in Australia. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 200 hit and I'd have the O/U about 180-185.
Highest Tournament Individual Score Over 163.5 @ 5/6
And relatedly, under World Cup Records:
Will Anyone Score 189 or more runs in a single Innings - Yes @ 9/40 -
The delay in the Chilcot findings till post election is very annoying for the Lib Dems.
It would give Clegg a much-needed chance to get on the front foot over something big and important. If he is counting on Lab switchers to come home to his party, a chance to remind people of the party's stance over the Iraq War would be the perfect topic.0 -
They make up for the cost of massive overruns on some of these inquiries by not bothering to hold them on issues of less importance, like the mass rape of thousands of children by street grooming gangs.Neil said:I dont know why people are criticising the time taken to produce the Chilcot report - he'll beat Saville by years! Wasnt the Inquiries Act 2005 meant to limit the time taken to produce such reports (and their cost)?
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But to get a second election you need to overturn the Fixed Term parliament act or the processes it lays down. For that a majority is required. Other parties should not be counted upon to help.Pulpstar said:I reckon the equations for next Gov't are:
Con + DUP + UKIP >/ 326 = Con Minority
Con + LD >/ 326 = Continuation of the coalition
Lab + LD >/ 326 = Lib-Lab or minority (No idea which, on both)
Lab + SNP >/ 326 = Lab Minority (Probably) or Lab-SNP Coalition (Smaller chance)
Combinations of Lab & UKIP >/ 326 or more likely Con + SNP >/ 326 will NOT form those Governments. Quite sure of that - those two bring in a 2nd election I think.
Also remember that the Tories need to be 11.4% ahead in England before they stop losing seats to LAB.
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As there will likely be five Sinn Fein MPs, the effective minimum for a majority will be 323.Pulpstar said:I reckon the equations for next Gov't are:
Con + DUP + UKIP >/ 326 = Con Minority
Con + LD >/ 326 = Continuation of the coalition
Lab + LD >/ 326 = Lib-Lab or minority (No idea which, on both)
Lab + SNP >/ 326 = Lab Minority (Probably) or Lab-SNP Coalition (Smaller chance)
Combinations of Lab & UKIP >/ 326 or more likely Con + SNP >/ 326 will NOT form those Governments. Quite sure of that - those two bring in a 2nd election I think.0 -
Meanwhile in small town Oxfordshire:
A group of men from Banbury organised parties for under-18s, subjected vulnerable underage girls to a grooming process and sexually exploited them, a court has heard.
At the start of an eight-week trial at Oxford Crown Court on Monday, it is alleged Ahmed Hassan Sule, Mohamed Saleh, Said Saleh, Takudzwa Hova, Alexandru Nae, Kagiso Manese and a 17-year-old boy identified eight girls aged between 13 and 16. The boy cannot be named for legal reasons.
http://www.banburyguardian.co.uk/news/local-news/young-girls-groomed-for-sex-court-hears-1-65232440 -
Will he? 6 years already. Saville took 10 - there were more witnesses and it was into events a very long time previously. It was already too long but the time is - partly - explicable.Neil said:I dont know why people are criticising the time taken to produce the Chilcot report - he'll beat Saville by years! Wasnt the Inquiries Act 2005 meant to limit the time taken to produce such reports (and their cost)?
It's no use holding any sort of inquiry unless you get on with it and publish promptly precisely to avoid the "it's all ancient history" argument. There are invariably some very important lessons to be learnt and these are usually ignored if people are allowed to dismiss it as all happening a long time ago.
As someone who writes reports like this all the time I can tell you that you always see the same problems/misbehaviours happening over and over again, which is precisely why you want (a) to discipline the wrongdoers; and (b) try your best to make changes and teach people what not to do as quickly as possible.
The Guinness report into one of the most egregious City scandals in over 30 years was published far too long after the events in question and therefore was viewed purely as a historical document which no-one read. But it set out pretty clearly the sort of culture and its accompanying misbehaviour which has been such a feature of every financial scandal since.
If t'were to be done t'were best done quickly.0 -
Basically no change (SNP =, LAB +1) since the Ipsos Mori poll in October. This is more or less consistent with Survation and contradicts Panelbase, who put in a question about oil before VI in their recent poll.0
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The LibDems will lose 5-9 seats to the SNP in ScotlandPulpstar said:
How would you split those between SNP, Labour and ConservativeSean_F said:
I'd expect about 25 Lib Dem losses overall.audreyanne said:
So you think the LibDems will only lose 10 seats? Or do you see them losing some to Labour? As for Conservative losses to Labour, I'm tempted to do an Isam and say 'betcha' but for the sake of this site's sanity I'll refrain and watch and wait.Sean_F said:
I could easily see the Conservatives picking up 10 or so seats from the Lib Dems. But, I'm sure there'll be net losses to Labour.taffys said:Go and do the maths of what that would look like in the Commons.
I'm simply making the point that a con maj of 30 plus would see David Cameron surrounded by more people who dislike him than the current make up of the HoC. Far more.
Our lady of Thatcher was Queen of the World in 1990, and yet was still unseated
And all of the people who conspired to beat her, blues with a pink edge like yourself, cast the party into the wilderness for a generation after that. >?
They will lose 8-10 seats against Labour
and they will lose 6-18 seats against the Conservatives
It is possible that UKIP grab 1 or 2 from the LDs in the SW. On the other hand, it's possible that UKIP will allow the LDs to hang on to a couple of seats by splitting the right wing vote.
The hardest ones to call are the LD-Conservative marginals. We all know that in Burnley, in Brent, in Redcar, etc., that the Labour Party will win. We are pretty sure the Labour party will win in Hornsey & Wood Green, and they may well take Simon Hughes Bermondsey seat from him. Likewise, most of the SNP losses are predictable (basically, most LD seats north of the border...)
But LD-Conservative seats are much harder. The Ashcroft polling shows them losing very few seats - perhaps as few as 6. I'd reckon the Conservatives will likely take 10-12 - but even so, it's quite possible the LibDems will hold in Eastbourne and Eastleigh and JackW thinks they'll even gain Watford (I do not).0 -
Mr. Smithson, but if there's no workable government then a refusal to back a fresh election looks cowardly.
Both major parties could benefit from a squeeze on the SNP, UKIP and the Lib Dems, so surely both would quite like a second election. Even if they lost, it could lead to a rise in seats and move politics back towards a two party affair.0 -
I can't believe I'd have done this a year ago, but I've just backed against highland Charlie (£15 @ 7-2)Plato said:RT @stvharry: STV poll: Among those who would lose their seat include new Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy bit.ly/1yHZis7
The SNP do have that seat at Holyrood...
Orkney and Shetland won't go, that is like a seperate country however !0 -
Given your posts below, where you admit you've done next to no analysis or research, you would do better to say 'hoping' rather than 'expecting' significant gains.audreyanne said:
I know you can't but then your predictions haven't exactly been accurate of lateSean_F said:
I can't see where 35 Conservative gains are coming from. Half those would have to come from Labour. I could see the Conservatives picking up the odd seat here and there (say Southampton Itchen) but nowhere near enough for a net gain in double figures.audreyanne said:Back to the fun on the last thread, Taffys is you think an outright win for Cameron of 30+ means he would last 18 months then you know diddly squat about British politics. Go and do the maths of what that would look like in the Commons.
Sunil, did you see my ELBOW question? Out of interest, when was the last time there was a Conservative lead?
I'm expecting significant gains from the LD's in England. More nearer the time. I'm looking forward to some proper analysis next month when the polls should start settling after the mid-winter hiatus.
It's also not really cricket to criticise another poster for his or her predictions when you have none of your own analysis or insight to counter it.0 -
Holy duck sticks.
@stvharry: STV poll: SNP would take 55 Westminster seats in general election with Labour left with four http://t.co/yULtfHZi43 http://t.co/Qsbb8RocrF
@stvharry: STV poll: Among those who would lose their seat include new Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy http://t.co/yULtfHZi43
@stvharry: STV poll: Both the Liberal Democrats and Conservative party would be left with no Scottish MPs http://t.co/yULtfHZi430 -
The wording of Ireland's gay marriage referendum to be held in May has been announced:
To add the following to the Constitution -
‘Marriage may be contracted in accordance with law by two persons without distinction as to their sex’0 -
Livingston EvensTheScreamingEagles said:Holy duck sticks.
@stvharry: STV poll: SNP would take 55 Westminster seats in general election with Labour left with four http://t.co/yULtfHZi43 http://t.co/Qsbb8RocrF
@stvharry: STV poll: Among those who would lose their seat include new Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy http://t.co/yULtfHZi43
@stvharry: STV poll: Both the Liberal Democrats and Conservative party would be left with no Scottish MPs http://t.co/yULtfHZi43
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine 11-10
Ross Skye Lochaber 7-2.
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That's a pretty poor defence of your position even at face value. The election is in May 2015 and it seems plausible to expect a referendum in say Oct 2017 (the autumn used to be the preferred time for elections). Almost 30 months not 18. Why on earth should a 'negotiating team' be selected now? Why should Cameron go out of his way to open up splits in his own party for no conceivably good purpose?Indigo said:FPT
Richard_Nabavi said:
What negotiating team? Negotiation hasn't started, for the very good reason that it is not (yet) UK government policy, since the LibDems didn't sign up to it in this parliament.Casino_Royale said:The truth is Cameron hasn't led and got his negotiating team in order.
And yet the public is supposed to believe that we will go from a standing start in May this year, possibly June, to an agreed and negotiated set of proposals that the public can use for the basis of a referendum in 18 months ? Given usual EU negotiating speed I doubt they will have agreed on the selection of wine to serve at the opening dinner by then!
Furthermore a referendum in the middle of the next parliament would give the govt time to get first choice legislation out of the way and for all parties to formulate policies for the country if the vote is NO. It strikes me this would give some purpose to the 2020 election.
And if the vote is YES then the electorate can digest the concessions assuming there are any and then again vote accordingly.
Some people might like to rush it through (I do not know who if any that would benefit) but for my part I would prefer if possible to have a bit of time and an informed decision.
Labour of course have no intention of pushing a referendum.
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How can there not be a workable Government? I cant envisage circumstances in which Labour and the Tories together dont have a working majority.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Smithson, but if there's no workable government then a refusal to back a fresh election looks cowardly.
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The SNP betting dam will burst when the Ashcroft Scottish poll comes out. Punters are (wrongly in my view) waiting for it.
Why wrongly? Because we already know what it will find. Poll after poll has confirmed that the huge SNP surge is real, and Ashcroft won't find anything very different because his fieldwork will largely cover the same dates as the polls we are already seeing.0 -
Recently I backed the SNP in every seat that I hadn't backed them in.Pulpstar said:
Livingston EvensTheScreamingEagles said:Holy duck sticks.
@stvharry: STV poll: SNP would take 55 Westminster seats in general election with Labour left with four http://t.co/yULtfHZi43 http://t.co/Qsbb8RocrF
@stvharry: STV poll: Among those who would lose their seat include new Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy http://t.co/yULtfHZi43
@stvharry: STV poll: Both the Liberal Democrats and Conservative party would be left with no Scottish MPs http://t.co/yULtfHZi43
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine 11-10
Ross Skye Lochaber 7-2.
God bless Antifrank and that tip from last summer.0 -
I would have thought so. His report is already finished after all.Cyclefree said:
Will he?Neil said:I dont know why people are criticising the time taken to produce the Chilcot report - he'll beat Saville by years! Wasnt the Inquiries Act 2005 meant to limit the time taken to produce such reports (and their cost)?
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Scottish Seats listed in Ladbrokes odds orderPulpstar said:
Livingston EvensTheScreamingEagles said:Holy duck sticks.
@stvharry: STV poll: SNP would take 55 Westminster seats in general election with Labour left with four http://t.co/yULtfHZi43 http://t.co/Qsbb8RocrF
@stvharry: STV poll: Among those who would lose their seat include new Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy http://t.co/yULtfHZi43
@stvharry: STV poll: Both the Liberal Democrats and Conservative party would be left with no Scottish MPs http://t.co/yULtfHZi43
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine 11-10
Ross Skye Lochaber 7-2.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rqAW2ParMduXRHKw79bB8S_Dz5Vr1iRwAfLDdr2awPo/edit?usp=sharing0 -
SNP ready to vote on English health laws, says Nicola Sturgeon
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-309174140 -
That's almost certainly not true. It's predicated on UNS and the electoral map (and maths) of last time.MikeSmithson said:
But to get a second election you need to overturn the Fixed Term parliament act or the processes it lays down. For that a majority is required. Other parties should not be counted upon to help.Pulpstar said:I reckon the equations for next Gov't are:
Con + DUP + UKIP >/ 326 = Con Minority
Con + LD >/ 326 = Continuation of the coalition
Lab + LD >/ 326 = Lib-Lab or minority (No idea which, on both)
Lab + SNP >/ 326 = Lab Minority (Probably) or Lab-SNP Coalition (Smaller chance)
Combinations of Lab & UKIP >/ 326 or more likely Con + SNP >/ 326 will NOT form those Governments. Quite sure of that - those two bring in a 2nd election I think.
Also remember that the Tories need to be 11.4% ahead in England before they stop losing seats to LAB.
If, say, Labour polled 29% in England and, say, the Conservatives 38.5%, a 9.5% lead, then I think the Conservatives could have a majority.
On those figures, they'd probably pick up a dozen seats from the Lib Dems for starters. They'd hold almost all their existing seats against Labour off the back of incumbency, so would only need another 9-10 gains from Labour UK-wide to push them over the line.0 -
My tip is Edinburgh North & Leith 4/1
Far, far too long in my view. All the other Edinburgh seats are shorter odds which just doesn't make any sense to me.0 -
Either there is a workable government (i.e. can pass confidence and supply), or there will be elections.Neil said:
How can there not be a workable Government? I cant envisage circumstances in which Labour and the Tories together dont have a working majority.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Smithson, but if there's no workable government then a refusal to back a fresh election looks cowardly.
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Weak from Miliband at PMQ's
As a Labour guy, the question I'd love to ask Ed is, 'If your leadership was the reason Labour failed to gain a majority at the next general election, and another person were able to do that, would you step down?'
I think if Ed had stepped aside last year and made a 'Im putting my party and country ahead of my own ambitions' kinda speech, he would have gained a lot of respect.0 -
Thanks Henry, this looks like a cracking bet and I'm on with Stan at evens as you suggested. Incidentally his odds are way ahead of the rest of the field ..... always a good indicator of value.HenryGManson said:O/T Betting tip for Australian Open tennis in the early hours. ISNER to beat Andreas Haider-Maurer 3-0 in sets. This is evens with StanJames.com and looks very likely. ISNER has a huge serve and the fast service will make it hard for him to be broken by Haider-Maurer. In his 1st round match ISNER struck 31 aces with 3 double faults. He was winning 88% of first serves and got a pretty decent number of first serves in too (69%) for a big server. ISNER wasn't broken. His opponent tonight/tomorrow hit 7 aces and 7 double faults and was broken on 3 occasions having faced 8 break points. I can't see any of the sets getting to tiebreaks, but even if they did ISNER has the experience and firepower to see them out. I'm confident there will be a 3-0 win, which I'd say is a 80-85% likelihood rather than 50% which evens implies.
I wonder what proportion of today's PB.com audience is aware of just how good you are with your tennis tips. I would estimate that the readership of the blog has changed by 50% or more since you were last really active 2 or 3 years ago. I enjoy betting on tennis, a truer test of form and ability in my view than most other sports and without that pesky third result of a draw which one has to deal with in the case of football, etc.0 -
FWIW, I think Charles Kennedy and Alistair Carmichael will retain their seats (as I think the SNP support in both seats is capped at the independence percentage). However, I think in both cases, it might be pretty close.0
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Quite. It's not as if the national polls aren't being carried out in Scottish constituencies.Richard_Nabavi said:The SNP betting dam will burst when the Ashcroft Scottish poll comes out. Punters are (wrongly in my view) waiting for it.
Why wrongly? Because we already know what it will find. Poll after poll has confirmed that the huge SNP surge is real, and Ashcroft won't find anything very different because his fieldwork will largely cover the same dates as the polls we are already seeing.0 -
The Kipper line is that Cam won't get concessions at any time and certainly not by the IN/OUT referendum and so will lie to the electorate.Flightpath said:
That's a pretty poor defence of your position even at face value. The election is in May 2015 and it seems plausible to expect a referendum in say Oct 2017 (the autumn used to be the preferred time for elections). Almost 30 months not 18. Why on earth should a 'negotiating team' be selected now? Why should Cameron go out of his way to open up splits in his own party for no conceivably good purpose?Indigo said:FPT
Richard_Nabavi said:
What negotiating team? Negotiation hasn't started, for the very good reason that it is not (yet) UK government policy, since the LibDems didn't sign up to it in this parliament.Casino_Royale said:The truth is Cameron hasn't led and got his negotiating team in order.
And yet the public is supposed to believe that we will go from a standing start in May this year, possibly June, to an agreed and negotiated set of proposals that the public can use for the basis of a referendum in 18 months ? Given usual EU negotiating speed I doubt they will have agreed on the selection of wine to serve at the opening dinner by then!
Furthermore a referendum in the middle of the next parliament would give the govt time to get first choice legislation out of the way and for all parties to formulate policies for the country if the vote is NO. It strikes me this would give some purpose to the 2020 election.
And if the vote is YES then the electorate can digest the concessions assuming there are any and then again vote accordingly.
Some people might like to rush it through (I do not know who if any that would benefit) but for my part I would prefer if possible to have a bit of time and an informed decision.
Labour of course have no intention of pushing a referendum.
Only Kippers apparently will be able to see through this dastardly strategy and understand the true state of play. The rest of the voting public will swallow the lies and vote accordingly IN.
It is the Kipper intention to have a Lab govt, Owen or Jacob in charge by 2020 and have a Cons party campaigning strongly for OUT.
It is coherent. But relies on a daunting decision tree. Plus it's a dead end on PB as a topic (TSE pls note although it would be fun) because no one can argue coherently that someone will or won't do something in future.
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Really? I dont see a problem with it. A clear question and the "yes" / "no" answer should be plain to all (whether supporters or opponents of gay marriage). Seems to do the job to me.Pong said:
Jeez, that wording is awful.Neil said:The wording of Ireland's gay marriage referendum to be held in May has been announced:
To add the following to the Constitution -
‘Marriage may be contracted in accordance with law by two persons without distinction as to their sex’
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I think it's fairly clear that Ed gets to stay after the GE if he is PM and he goes if he isnt.AllyPally_Rob said:
As a Labour guy, the question I'd love to ask Ed is, 'If your leadership was the reason Labour failed to gain a majority at the next general election, and another person were able to do that, would you step down?'0 -
If the Ashcroft Scottish constituency poll contains a question naming the incumbent it may get interesting, the SNP are only now selecting their Westminster candidates.Richard_Nabavi said:
The SNP betting dam will burst when the Ashcroft Scottish poll comes out. Punters are (wrongly in my view) waiting for it.
Why wrongly? Because we already know what it will find. Poll after poll has confirmed that the huge SNP surge is real, and Ashcroft won't find anything very different because his fieldwork will largely cover the same dates as the polls we are already seeing.0 -
On Twitter I was reading the labour benches were empty well before the end of QT.
The poll pressure will increase the dissent which will increase the poll pressure.0 -
I note PMQs coverage is the most read thing on bbc website. Is this usual, or sign of awakening interest?0
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I don't think that's right. You would have a second general election if, say, PM Cameron lost a confidence motion and Miliband wasn't able to put together a coalition to win one within 14 days. Isn't that how it would work?MikeSmithson said:
But to get a second election you need to overturn the Fixed Term parliament act or the processes it lays down. For that a majority is required. Other parties should not be counted upon to help.Pulpstar said:I reckon the equations for next Gov't are:
Con + DUP + UKIP >/ 326 = Con Minority
Con + LD >/ 326 = Continuation of the coalition
Lab + LD >/ 326 = Lib-Lab or minority (No idea which, on both)
Lab + SNP >/ 326 = Lab Minority (Probably) or Lab-SNP Coalition (Smaller chance)
Combinations of Lab & UKIP >/ 326 or more likely Con + SNP >/ 326 will NOT form those Governments. Quite sure of that - those two bring in a 2nd election I think.
Also remember that the Tories need to be 11.4% ahead in England before they stop losing seats to LAB.0 -
It's like those youtube clips of a skateboarder crashing into a lamp post. They're watched by millions as there is something intrinsically funny about such acts. Today's PMQ (which I've just finished watching) was the political analogue of a faceplant.Ishmael_X said:I note PMQs coverage is the most read thing on bbc website. Is this usual, or sign of awakening interest?
Like this, but with more MPs.0 -
Already???TheScreamingEagles said:New thread
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