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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Delaying till after the election the Chilcot report on Iraq
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Delaying till after the election the Chilcot report on Iraq is good news for Labour
At PMQs today EdM opened by asserting that his party wants to Chilcot Inquire report to be published as soon as possible. Maybe but the he last thing, surely, that Labour wants in the run-up to May 7th is something to remind voters of the Iraq War although Ed has said that he personally was opposed. The war. it will be recalled, started almost 12 years ago.
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Sunil, did you see my ELBOW question? Out of interest, when was the last time there was a Conservative lead?
I'm expecting significant gains from the LD's in England. More nearer the time. I'm looking forward to some proper analysis next month when the polls should start settling after the mid-winter hiatus.
**Crossover alert**
Although the simple average of the week's five polls so far gives a teeny Labour lead of 0.2%, ELBOW for these polls gives a very slim Tory advantage of 0.06%!
Con 32.33
Lab 32.27
UKIP 14.1
LD 8.5
Green 7.6
Con lead of 0.06!
Caveat emptor being this is only a mid-week figure - let's wait until all of this week's polls come out before celebrating*/squeaky bumming*!
(* delete as appropriate!)
@audreyanne
ELBOW has only been up and running since August - Labour has always been in the lead on a week-by-week basis since then - the lowest lead was 0.5% on November 23rd.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/556882947656413186
http://politicalbookie.com/2015/01/21/the-five-seats-that-a-green-surge-could-hand-to-the-tories/
Speaking as a Brightonian.
Want to name any names Ms Anne?
Eastleigh...?? Kingston Surbiton...???
I'm simply making the point that a con maj of 30 plus would see David Cameron surrounded by more people who dislike him than the current make up of the HoC. Far more.
Our lady of Thatcher was Queen of the World in 1990, and yet was still unseated
And all of the people who conspired to beat her, blues with a pink edge like yourself, cast the party into the wilderness for a generation after that.
And at least a few of those problems wouldn't be nearly so bad if the US and UK hadn't.
Talk about a can of worms.
I wonder what odds you could get on a tory net seats gain over labour...
It is odd that both world wars in C20 were shorter than the wait for this bloody report. Nothing to fear, nothing to hide.
Even The Franks Report took less time to throw whitewash all over The Falklands.
The clue is in the name Audrey Anne, fire away with odds.
The best comment at PMQs about Chilcott was the one about the concern that had been expressed before the last election that its publication might influence the result of that.
It is now ancient history and the detail of why and how the earlier inquiries, particularly Lord Hutton's, reached such incredible conclusions so inconsistent with the facts they had unearthed is not going to butter many parsnips for anyone, not even the Lib Dems.
It's hardly a surprise they find it so hard to convince people to vote for them.
I'll keep the champagne in the fridge for now, all the same
And yet the public is supposed to believe that we will go from a standing start in May this year, possibly June, to an agreed and negotiated set of proposals that the public can use for the basis of a referendum in 18 months ? Given usual EU negotiating speed I doubt they will have agreed on the selection of wine to serve at the opening dinner by then!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30917414
In deciding on the kind of government we elect this year we should have information about what happened, what went wong and what lessons should be learnt.
Mike finds (very) thin gruel for Labour in the header, and the Conservatives are ramped way above a realistic view in the comments.
With these things its often the cover up that's worse than the sin.
I doubt whether the findings of this enquiry could hurt labour twelve years on, but the stink of a cover up perhaps could.
Which gave Cam the excuse to tell him that 2+2=4 (Lab didn't vote for it) for the rest of the session.
(Edit: I can get more tortuous with my analogies if anyone would prefer.)
If it was transparently obvious that "this is it" and there is nothing but blancmange, then yes I see him getting hoofed out.
That said, I would think of tearing up my membership card if the lunatics took over the asylum under, say, Owen Paterson.
I think Cam has played a blinder in the circs but I want to see some of the iron fist which I have allowed him to hide 'cos of the Coalition.
Con + DUP + UKIP >/ 326 = Con Minority
Con + LD >/ 326 = Continuation of the coalition
Lab + LD >/ 326 = Lib-Lab or minority (No idea which, on both)
Lab + SNP >/ 326 = Lab Minority (Probably) or Lab-SNP Coalition (Smaller chance)
Combinations of Lab & UKIP >/ 326 or more likely Con + SNP >/ 326 will NOT form those Governments. Quite sure of that - those two bring in a 2nd election I think.
For those who seem able to predict a raft of Conservative gains from the Liberal Democrats, the Ashcroft constituency polls told a different story. Some losses, yes, but not wholesale.
As for life under a Conservative majority Government, as 1992-97 showed, a small (less than 20) majority doesn't come without problems. In addition, the Govenrment will be paralysed by the EU Referendum in 2017 which will dominate everything else.
So the choice in May is between a Labour Government paralysed by its ineffectiveness and a Conservative Government paralysed by its introspection.
Both with Paddy Power. The first bet is the better value but you may find you are allowed to stake more on the second.
They've simply got this line all wrong for a 49-game tournament including several minnows, and played in Australia. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 200 hit and I'd have the O/U about 180-185.
Highest Tournament Individual Score Over 163.5 @ 5/6
And relatedly, under World Cup Records:
Will Anyone Score 189 or more runs in a single Innings - Yes @ 9/4
It would give Clegg a much-needed chance to get on the front foot over something big and important. If he is counting on Lab switchers to come home to his party, a chance to remind people of the party's stance over the Iraq War would be the perfect topic.
Also remember that the Tories need to be 11.4% ahead in England before they stop losing seats to LAB.
A group of men from Banbury organised parties for under-18s, subjected vulnerable underage girls to a grooming process and sexually exploited them, a court has heard.
At the start of an eight-week trial at Oxford Crown Court on Monday, it is alleged Ahmed Hassan Sule, Mohamed Saleh, Said Saleh, Takudzwa Hova, Alexandru Nae, Kagiso Manese and a 17-year-old boy identified eight girls aged between 13 and 16. The boy cannot be named for legal reasons.
http://www.banburyguardian.co.uk/news/local-news/young-girls-groomed-for-sex-court-hears-1-6523244
It's no use holding any sort of inquiry unless you get on with it and publish promptly precisely to avoid the "it's all ancient history" argument. There are invariably some very important lessons to be learnt and these are usually ignored if people are allowed to dismiss it as all happening a long time ago.
As someone who writes reports like this all the time I can tell you that you always see the same problems/misbehaviours happening over and over again, which is precisely why you want (a) to discipline the wrongdoers; and (b) try your best to make changes and teach people what not to do as quickly as possible.
The Guinness report into one of the most egregious City scandals in over 30 years was published far too long after the events in question and therefore was viewed purely as a historical document which no-one read. But it set out pretty clearly the sort of culture and its accompanying misbehaviour which has been such a feature of every financial scandal since.
If t'were to be done t'were best done quickly.
They will lose 8-10 seats against Labour
and they will lose 6-18 seats against the Conservatives
It is possible that UKIP grab 1 or 2 from the LDs in the SW. On the other hand, it's possible that UKIP will allow the LDs to hang on to a couple of seats by splitting the right wing vote.
The hardest ones to call are the LD-Conservative marginals. We all know that in Burnley, in Brent, in Redcar, etc., that the Labour Party will win. We are pretty sure the Labour party will win in Hornsey & Wood Green, and they may well take Simon Hughes Bermondsey seat from him. Likewise, most of the SNP losses are predictable (basically, most LD seats north of the border...)
But LD-Conservative seats are much harder. The Ashcroft polling shows them losing very few seats - perhaps as few as 6. I'd reckon the Conservatives will likely take 10-12 - but even so, it's quite possible the LibDems will hold in Eastbourne and Eastleigh and JackW thinks they'll even gain Watford (I do not).
Both major parties could benefit from a squeeze on the SNP, UKIP and the Lib Dems, so surely both would quite like a second election. Even if they lost, it could lead to a rise in seats and move politics back towards a two party affair.
The SNP do have that seat at Holyrood...
Orkney and Shetland won't go, that is like a seperate country however !
It's also not really cricket to criticise another poster for his or her predictions when you have none of your own analysis or insight to counter it.
@stvharry: STV poll: SNP would take 55 Westminster seats in general election with Labour left with four http://t.co/yULtfHZi43 http://t.co/Qsbb8RocrF
@stvharry: STV poll: Among those who would lose their seat include new Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy http://t.co/yULtfHZi43
@stvharry: STV poll: Both the Liberal Democrats and Conservative party would be left with no Scottish MPs http://t.co/yULtfHZi43
To add the following to the Constitution -
‘Marriage may be contracted in accordance with law by two persons without distinction as to their sex’
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine 11-10
Ross Skye Lochaber 7-2.
Furthermore a referendum in the middle of the next parliament would give the govt time to get first choice legislation out of the way and for all parties to formulate policies for the country if the vote is NO. It strikes me this would give some purpose to the 2020 election.
And if the vote is YES then the electorate can digest the concessions assuming there are any and then again vote accordingly.
Some people might like to rush it through (I do not know who if any that would benefit) but for my part I would prefer if possible to have a bit of time and an informed decision.
Labour of course have no intention of pushing a referendum.
Why wrongly? Because we already know what it will find. Poll after poll has confirmed that the huge SNP surge is real, and Ashcroft won't find anything very different because his fieldwork will largely cover the same dates as the polls we are already seeing.
God bless Antifrank and that tip from last summer.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rqAW2ParMduXRHKw79bB8S_Dz5Vr1iRwAfLDdr2awPo/edit?usp=sharing
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30917414
If, say, Labour polled 29% in England and, say, the Conservatives 38.5%, a 9.5% lead, then I think the Conservatives could have a majority.
On those figures, they'd probably pick up a dozen seats from the Lib Dems for starters. They'd hold almost all their existing seats against Labour off the back of incumbency, so would only need another 9-10 gains from Labour UK-wide to push them over the line.
Far, far too long in my view. All the other Edinburgh seats are shorter odds which just doesn't make any sense to me.
As a Labour guy, the question I'd love to ask Ed is, 'If your leadership was the reason Labour failed to gain a majority at the next general election, and another person were able to do that, would you step down?'
I think if Ed had stepped aside last year and made a 'Im putting my party and country ahead of my own ambitions' kinda speech, he would have gained a lot of respect.
I'm on this one at 12-1 for a fiver - anyway you pays yer money...
I wonder what proportion of today's PB.com audience is aware of just how good you are with your tennis tips. I would estimate that the readership of the blog has changed by 50% or more since you were last really active 2 or 3 years ago. I enjoy betting on tennis, a truer test of form and ability in my view than most other sports and without that pesky third result of a draw which one has to deal with in the case of football, etc.
Only Kippers apparently will be able to see through this dastardly strategy and understand the true state of play. The rest of the voting public will swallow the lies and vote accordingly IN.
It is the Kipper intention to have a Lab govt, Owen or Jacob in charge by 2020 and have a Cons party campaigning strongly for OUT.
It is coherent. But relies on a daunting decision tree. Plus it's a dead end on PB as a topic (TSE pls note although it would be fun) because no one can argue coherently that someone will or won't do something in future.
The poll pressure will increase the dissent which will increase the poll pressure.
Like this, but with more MPs.