I see that even minor changes to mitigate the economic damage of Brexit are getting a completely unhinged reaction.
Brexit simply meant leaving the EU, it didn't require any other post Brexit arrangement. All are compatible with the vote from EEA downwards to absolute autarky.
Absolutely.
The more hysterical voices on here need to learn what 'losing an election' means. The other side gets to make deals and shape our trading relations as they see fit.
Anyone claiming this deal amounts to being a traitor can, frankly, be ignored in terms of their political commentary. Because they've lost all sense of perspective.
In one way, nothing has changed since 2016-19. Same old voices with the same old tropes.
Difference is that, last time, they were significant voices on the government side, with at least a blocking minority on anything they didn't like. Now, they are significant voices on His Majesty's Tiny Opposition.
They lost in 2024, and haven't got over it.
They are also part of the voice of Reform. While I disagree with them, I don't think you can dismiss that strain of opinion quite so easily.
From a betting point of view (next Labour leader/next PM), I think the paragraphs below were the more relevant takeaways from the meeting of Labour MP's where Starmer said that he would aggressively fight Farage:
MPs leaving the PLP meeting said Starmer was peppered with hostile questions from those present. One said of the 26 questions “none were positive” and criticism came on a range of different issues where MPs were angry – including cuts to disability benefits and Starmer’s migration speech, as well inaction on Gaza, the anger of the LGBT community and general concerns about the party’s electoral strategy, particularly for elections next year. A new MP in a northern English seat said she feared from her experience knocking on doors in the local elections that the party was losing more voters to the Greens and Lib Dems than to Reform.
Starmer is a lawyer, not a politician: we know that. Trouble is, whoever is advising him is either out of touch (because they are out of the country, like Blair or Mandelson) or just wrong.
Just as Kemi is undermined by CCHQ so Starmer is by, well, whoever. Why on earth turn Labour's guns on Farage when Reform is knocking seven bells out of the Conservatives? It makes no sense.
I think Starmer's problem is an inability to understand the feelings of a pensioner or a working class voter, who is struggling to make ends meet. He has never personally faced a situation of having to budget essentials on a very limited income, and just cannot understand or empathise with a person in that situation.
Alistair Campbell said in one of his recent podcasts that people voted Labour because they wanted "change", but benefit cuts was not the "change" they were expecting from a Labour government. Campbell said that a Labour MP told him that once the disabled benefit cuts are implemented, up to 2/3rd of his constituents would be impacted.
If 2/3rds of his constituents are on disabled benefits then something is well and truly broken and that does need reforming.
All these so called cuts means is the benefits bill grows by 26 billion, not 33 billion, over the life of this parliament.
Labour MPs wanting to enter politics to give people free money and do nice things are finding government is not like that. Well tough. They need to suck it up.
(1) Starmer is crap at negotiating. It's a standard EU tactic to come back at the 11th hour to ask for more as part of their gamesmanship. They love sequencing. It's normally billed as a "crisis moment in the talks"/"talks could collapse", etc. It looks very much like he acquiesced on the grounds that it's not in our interests to "shout and scream" at the EU. (2) All this "move rapidly" and "accelerated focus" stuff on the rest of the deal will mean many more concessions will be needed to agree anything concrete. At the moment it's just some nice words with no teeth. It's very similar to how they negotiated with Theresa May. Sequencing with key concessions heavily in their interests being secured each time. (3) To some extent the EU have decided it's OK to "cherrypick" - they certainly wouldn't have done anything like this with Theresa May, and Tusk would have tweeted a lot about it - but if they can outmanoeuvre the UK they will, and they are.
He needs to stop believing the Remainer/ Rejoiner propaganda that the EU naturally hold all the cards and learn how to play the game better.
Starmer was a Remainder who opposed even May's Brexit terms let alone Johnson's. The only reason he doesn't want to rejoin the EEA now is to try and keep the red wall seats and a Labour majority.
On current polls though the likely choice at the next general election is between a Labour minority government propped up by the LDs and maybe SNP and Greens too offering more EU integration. Or a Reform majority or Reform minority government propped up by the Tories committed to a hard Brexit
We tried a much harder Brexit than was ever discussed in the referendum. It has demonstrably failed and is extremely unpopular. The conventional definition of fanatic- one who won´t change their mind and won´t change the subject- now applies to the hard Brexit loons. The Brits tolerate fools quite easily. Bores, on the other hand, not so much.
I think it is just as likely that the choice is soft Brexit from Labour and full fat rejoin from the Lib Dems. Reform are talking far more about immigration these days than the EU... Brexit is, and ought to be, a dead duck. If that is all the Tories can talk about, then they are dead too.
(1) Starmer is crap at negotiating. It's a standard EU tactic to come back at the 11th hour to ask for more as part of their gamesmanship. They love sequencing. It's normally billed as a "crisis moment in the talks"/"talks could collapse", etc. It looks very much like he acquiesced on the grounds that it's not in our interests to "shout and scream" at the EU. (2) All this "move rapidly" and "accelerated focus" stuff on the rest of the deal will mean many more concessions will be needed to agree anything concrete. At the moment it's just some nice words with no teeth. It's very similar to how they negotiated with Theresa May. Sequencing with key concessions heavily in their interests being secured each time. (3) To some extent the EU have decided it's OK to "cherrypick" - they certainly wouldn't have done anything like this with Theresa May, and Tusk would have tweeted a lot about it - but if they can outmanoeuvre the UK they will, and they are.
He needs to stop believing the Remainer/ Rejoiner propaganda that the EU naturally hold all the cards and learn how to play the game better.
I go some way with that in terms of how the EU approach negotiations, and their patience (see their negotiations with MERCOSUR for example). However that is no different to how our previous PMs all negotiated, and in some respects Starmer has been more successful and more strategic. For example, the fishing aspects are notably better than the 2020 agreement negotiated by Boris Johnson in desperation whilst he was falling down the political stairs.
And Frosty the No Man is still in essentially complete denial about his ineffectiveness, as he demonstrated on the Daily T podcast yesterday.
I think the underlying problem is perhaps that any effective professional negotiating operation with respect to the EU would be demolished without notice as "unnecessary bureaucrats", in pursuit of a temporary tax saving headline, or the self-regard of amateurs running the Government. On occasions both parties have done that imo. That is the UK story since before 1970.
I think there was some interesting critique around yesterday (I think it was on Ukraine the Latest) about how if Europe is to be effective as an anchor for the rule of law, as abandoned by the USA during Trump's Presidency. In the development of the new multipole world decades long processes are not enough.
How long before the Greens are ahead of the Tories?
I don't think most people have clocked what is going on. Once "Conservatives in 4th" starts to permeate into the national consciousness, it will be very difficult to reverse.
The Tories are a BBC News App push notification away from catastrophe.
From a betting point of view (next Labour leader/next PM), I think the paragraphs below were the more relevant takeaways from the meeting of Labour MP's where Starmer said that he would aggressively fight Farage:
MPs leaving the PLP meeting said Starmer was peppered with hostile questions from those present. One said of the 26 questions “none were positive” and criticism came on a range of different issues where MPs were angry – including cuts to disability benefits and Starmer’s migration speech, as well inaction on Gaza, the anger of the LGBT community and general concerns about the party’s electoral strategy, particularly for elections next year. A new MP in a northern English seat said she feared from her experience knocking on doors in the local elections that the party was losing more voters to the Greens and Lib Dems than to Reform.
Starmer is a lawyer, not a politician: we know that. Trouble is, whoever is advising him is either out of touch (because they are out of the country, like Blair or Mandelson) or just wrong.
Just as Kemi is undermined by CCHQ so Starmer is by, well, whoever. Why on earth turn Labour's guns on Farage when Reform is knocking seven bells out of the Conservatives? It makes no sense.
I think Starmer's problem is an inability to understand the feelings of a pensioner or a working class voter, who is struggling to make ends meet. He has never personally faced a situation of having to budget essentials on a very limited income, and just cannot understand or empathise with a person in that situation.
Alistair Campbell said in one of his recent podcasts that people voted Labour because they wanted "change", but benefit cuts was not the "change" they were expecting from a Labour government. Campbell said that a Labour MP told him that once the disabled benefit cuts are implemented, up to 2/3rd of his constituents would be impacted.
That "2/3 of constituents" seems a strange number, unless there is an interesting definition of "impacted". There are 3.7 million recipients of PIP across the country, eligibility for which is iirc Reeves' target (not imo necessarily the right target), and to parlay that to 2/3 in a single constituency is a hell of a concentration, even if it includes all household members.
Normally I think Bad Al has a decent feel for the gut of the Labour Party. If he said exactly that I think he should be a touch more skeptical.
I think he probably must have meant the combined total of those receiving disabled benefits and winter fuel allowance.
It is only direct Tory switching to Reform that puts the Tories 1% behind the LDs with Yougov and makes Farage PM with a Reform overall majority
There's little chance the Lib Dems and Greens will be polling at 27% if Farage is hovering around Downing Street.
The distribution of the Lab/LD/Green vote is relatively efficient, and without boundary changes it will be easier for voters to work out who the best placed centre left candidate is, next time. Labour will lose votes from being lamely in power, but the LDs and Greens will pick up most of those.
How long before the Greens are ahead of the Tories?
I don't think most people have clocked what is going on. Once "Conservatives in 4th" starts to permeate into the national consciousness, it will be very difficult to reverse.
The Tories are a BBC News App push notification away from catastrophe.
Compare and contrast with the foaming-at-the-mouth-and-falling-over-backwards headlines in the Tory papers this morning. Starmer is a TRAITOR who has sold us out to Yerp! Or something. At which point do these media outlets realise the jig is up and their lot is done?
How long before the Greens are ahead of the Tories?
I don't think most people have clocked what is going on. Once "Conservatives in 4th" starts to permeate into the national consciousness, it will be very difficult to reverse.
The Tories are a BBC News App push notification away from catastrophe.
The only upside the Tories have is that the BBC News App won't push that through for a one off poll.
Another one however and it's a different picture and that second poll is probably only a week or so away.
It is only direct Tory switching to Reform that puts the Tories 1% behind the LDs with Yougov and makes Farage PM with a Reform overall majority
There's little chance the Lib Dems and Greens will be polling at 27% if Farage is hovering around Downing Street.
In some seats it is Greens and LDs that will be the alternative to Reform or to a Conservative Party that is the gimp of the Refukkers.
That's true, but in most it will still be Labour. On this polling, under a "stop Farage" tactical vote that just squeezes Reform out, Labour would gain an additional 50 seats while the Lib Dems and Greens would gain nothing versus a uniform swing.
It would be something like Lab = 200, LD = 100, Green = 12.
It's really time to move on from the language of traitors and quislings?
What else should one call what keeps happening with Starmer?
He's someone with different beliefs and principles to you?
Argue with those beliefs and principles if you dislike them.
I dislike many of his too. They don't make him a traitor.
If Kim Philby had undermined the UK's interests as successfully as Sir Keir, they would have given him a parade in Moscow and a statue in Red Square.
I don't think you need to be a conventional spy to betray your country - wilful acts that in and of themselves do significant damage to the security and prosperity of your country, whilst aiding the objectives of other countries, is surely the classical definition.
How long before the Greens are ahead of the Tories?
I don't think most people have clocked what is going on. Once "Conservatives in 4th" starts to permeate into the national consciousness, it will be very difficult to reverse.
The Tories are a BBC News App push notification away from catastrophe.
Compare and contrast with the foaming-at-the-mouth-and-falling-over-backwards headlines in the Tory papers this morning. Starmer is a TRAITOR who has sold us out to Yerp! Or something. At which point do these media outlets realise the jig is up and their lot is done?
To realise that will be to realise that their jig is up.
(Something something productive life cycles. Newspapers are in the "milk the last bit of profit as the customers die off" stage.)
It is only direct Tory switching to Reform that puts the Tories 1% behind the LDs with Yougov and makes Farage PM with a Reform overall majority
There's little chance the Lib Dems and Greens will be polling at 27% if Farage is hovering around Downing Street.
The distribution of the Lab/LD/Green vote is relatively efficient, and without boundary changes it will be easier for voters to work out who the best placed centre left candidate is, next time. Labour will lose votes from being lamely in power, but the LDs and Greens will pick up most of those.
A combined LD+ Green polling share of 27% is something we haven't seen since the Cleggasm of 2010, or am I wrong?
I though tories were supposed to be ruthless when it came to doing Involuntary Assisted Dying on leaders? The Kemi Project has clearly blown up in their stupid faces. Why do they put up with this fucking nonsense?
How long before the Greens are ahead of the Tories?
I don't think most people have clocked what is going on. Once "Conservatives in 4th" starts to permeate into the national consciousness, it will be very difficult to reverse.
The Tories are a BBC News App push notification away from catastrophe.
Compare and contrast with the foaming-at-the-mouth-and-falling-over-backwards headlines in the Tory papers this morning. Starmer is a TRAITOR who has sold us out to Yerp! Or something. At which point do these media outlets realise the jig is up and their lot is done?
That slice of the media is hedging their bets; they will quite seamlessly switch to backing Reform if it comes to that.
It is only direct Tory switching to Reform that puts the Tories 1% behind the LDs with Yougov and makes Farage PM with a Reform overall majority
There's little chance the Lib Dems and Greens will be polling at 27% if Farage is hovering around Downing Street.
The distribution of the Lab/LD/Green vote is relatively efficient, and without boundary changes it will be easier for voters to work out who the best placed centre left candidate is, next time. Labour will lose votes from being lamely in power, but the LDs and Greens will pick up most of those.
A combined LD+ Green polling share of 27% is something we haven't seen since the Cleggasm of 2010, or am I wrong?
The difference is that the Cleggasm was a genuine enthusiasm vote but this isn’t.
I though tories were supposed to be ruthless when it came to doing Involuntary Assisted Dying on leaders? The Kemi Project has clearly blown up in their stupid faces. Why do they put up with this fucking nonsense?
Comments
While I disagree with them, I don't think you can dismiss that strain of opinion quite so easily.
Exciting period in British politics, but I'm about 90% certain one of Labour or the Conservatives will be polling above 30% come the next election.
It is only direct Tory switching to Reform that puts the Tories 1% behind the LDs with Yougov and makes Farage PM with a Reform overall majority
Labour MPs wanting to enter politics to give people free money and do nice things are finding government is not like that. Well tough. They need to suck it up.
I think it is just as likely that the choice is soft Brexit from Labour and full fat rejoin from the Lib Dems. Reform are talking far more about immigration these days than the EU... Brexit is, and ought to be, a dead duck. If that is all the Tories can talk about, then they are dead too.
And Frosty the No Man is still in essentially complete denial about his ineffectiveness, as he demonstrated on the Daily T podcast yesterday.
I think the underlying problem is perhaps that any effective professional negotiating operation with respect to the EU would be demolished without notice as "unnecessary bureaucrats", in pursuit of a temporary tax saving headline, or the self-regard of amateurs running the Government. On occasions both parties have done that imo. That is the UK story since before 1970.
I think there was some interesting critique around yesterday (I think it was on Ukraine the Latest) about how if Europe is to be effective as an anchor for the rule of law, as abandoned by the USA during Trump's Presidency. In the development of the new multipole world decades long processes are not enough.
The Tories are a BBC News App push notification away from catastrophe.
Starmer’s EU reset triggers outbreak of Brexit derangement syndrome
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/may/19/starmers-eu-reset-triggers-outbreak-of-brexit-derangement-syndrome
For One Nation Tories and soft Brexiteers who make up most of the rump Tories left they need PR or a new leader if Kemi doesn't improve
Con-Signia.
Con - Conservative.
Signia - related to "signal, mark", and a brand of hearing aid (which is currently needed).
Logo - circling the hole that they are continuing to dig to Australia.
Another one however and it's a different picture and that second poll is probably only a week or so away.
It would be something like Lab = 200, LD = 100, Green = 12.
I don't think you need to be a conventional spy to betray your country - wilful acts that in and of themselves do significant damage to the security and prosperity of your country, whilst aiding the objectives of other countries, is surely the classical definition.
NEW THREAD
(Something something productive life cycles. Newspapers are in the "milk the last bit of profit as the customers die off" stage.)
ELON to Bloomberg: "In terms of political spending I'm going to do a lot less in the future"
Why?
ELON: "I've done enough"
...
"If I see a reason to do political spending in the future I will do it. I don't currently see a reason."
https://x.com/samstein/status/1924825935229993107
Who says bromance is dead...