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Vibeshift update – politicalbetting.com
Vibeshift update – politicalbetting.com
Today’s Telegrapgh has this story from the screenshot. For UK politics the question is will Nigel Farage and a lesser extent Kemi Badenoch be able to distance themselves from Donald Trump?
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The obvious political point to make from it is, it was shot in the UK. The Mad King would kill it if he could
(New thread just started as I posted this, as if to prove my point)
I consider Andor (season 2) some of the finest television ever made.
Poe Dameron is [redacted]’s son, that’s my latest theory.
A poor night for the "left" parties in Portugal with losses for both the Socialists, the Communists and the Left Bloc.
With 4 of the 230 seats still to be decided, the Social Democrats are up nine and Chega up eight. Chega have the same number of deputies as the Socialists (58) but fractionally fewer votes (48,500 fewer) but if they do better with the remaining overseas and other votes, Andre Ventura could yet become Opposition leader.
In truth, however, the election has changed little - no one will work with Chega so the only options are another PSD minority as even with the support of Liberal Initiative they are 19 short. Last time, the Socialists abstained to allow Montenegro to continue and I imagine they will do the same again as they have lost a quarter of their seats.
IF they slip to third party status, it will be a disaster for the Socialists who have been either in Government or led the Opposition since the restoration of democracy in 1975.
To update this, Pedro Nuno Santos has this afternoon resigned as leader of the Socialists.
We are of course free to set higher food standards than the EU, just not lower standards. Which in essence is what you are proposing that we do.
It's OK, fuck it, we have to follow EU rules on food so companies can have an easier time exporting there. I hate the ECJ doing anything over our heads but... pff.... it's biscuits and sausages
Also if we are going to follow any food standards I would genuinely prefer us to go the EU way than the US way. The EU way on food is one of the few areas the EU is clearly superior by a distance
I also like the egates (even tho the EU refusing to let us use them was sheer spite in the first place); the pet passports; youth mobility - let the Spanish girls come work in our bars again
I am sorry for the fisherpeople but at least their deal hasn't gotten WORSE
The deal is not gamechanging. It's more a modest but needed rapprochement after a nasty divorce, so the kids can stop being traumatised by all the acrimony and tea-pot throwing. It will do
Let’s face it, no western govt will call them out and no one will be held to account for it.
The IDF will just carry on without fear of any comeback. No one will ever stand trial.
The international war crimes tribunal, or whatever it is called, is merely a tool of western hegemony used to prosecute African Warlords and East Europeans. You will never see an American, Brit, Israeli or other western soldier there.
No nation should Co-operate with it.
So there is no obvious reason for the Tories or Reform to suffer.
BTW, compare our MSM with Rory and Campbell, Mooch and Kay, the big USA liberal podcasts, Washington Week, CBS, CNN, MSNBC etc. Different planets.
Fishing is a political issue not a real issue. Large chunks of the fishing industry are delighted and have said so. Pelagic says its a disaster but they said the 2020 deal was a disaster - because regardless of quotas they also need to be able to trade.
The Tories say that extending their deal on fishing is surrender - so what was it when they did it? And what did they envisage when their deal expired - a better deal? With unimpeded rights to fish in Icelandic waters with no reciprocal rights in our waters? If that deal was a gimmee why didn't they negotiate it?
As you say, all in all its a better deal than we had. People are less bothered for principles like sovereignty now than they were - what they want is food on the shelves at a price they can afford.
Met says a third man, 34 years old, has been arrested in Chelsea in connection with arson attacks linked to Starmer.
This deal - in terms of having a baby - is like we are finally through the terrible 2s, and maybe the tantrumy 3s and the Brexit child is more tolerable, less life disrupting, still quite hard work, but we can see serious upsides
From now on it will always be like this - incremental changes, swaps here and there, amendments and mild disputes. That is how it is between big trading partners who need each other. The UK is too big to be really bossed around, but the EU is far too big for us to totally ignore their desires and demands. So be it. We are now in the position of a larger Switzerland - and I note that in Switzerland there is near ZERO desire to join the EU
What consumers want is more choice and lower prices without standards being cut. Which they will now get with this deal.
Unfortunately, and perhaps related to the point about the media going soft on Trump (I agree, largely), those politicians who are speaking out aren't getting much coverage.
I reckon: a small nudge up for Labour in Voting Intention
A larger nudge up for Starmer's personal polling as he is seen to do something that, for once, is not obviously and immediately disastrous
Ironically these small steps are shouted down as a capitulation by the very people who capitulated in 2019.
Indicted but at large: 28
Died before being detained: 8
Detained in pre-trial phase: 1
Trial ongoing: 4
Died in custody: 1
Acquitted or charges dismissed/withdrawn: 15
Served or serving sentence: 9
It's probably not a deal breaker but it's a definite downside risk factor in that it doesn't necessarily kill many jobs today but it will probably prevent us from having a big food biotech industry.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/jamie-katie-wallis-mp-live-31672694
Youth Mobility is a big win for those who want closer relations, egates and pet passports are minor but nice, the SPS stuff is genuinely good for many companies and exporters - on both sides. That trade can now resume. Small time producers able to send quality food goods here. And vice versa, we can send nice cheese there. Yay
Within the realms of political reality, this is about the best Starmer could deliver
‘Perfect’ weather conditions produce berries that growers say are between 10% and 20% bigger than usual
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/18/giant-uk-strawberries-weather-growers
No need to import Euro-strawberries under Starmer's win-win/sell-out agreement.
I think this will age very quickly for the two parties...
You only have to look at the U.K. and how the murderous Marine A was treated as a victim and fetishised by some in the media and on daytime TV.
I think Badenoch has made a big mistake in reacting as she has. This was a chance to put some distance between the Tories and Reform.
https://x.com/BorisJohnson/status/1924455071791636488
The reaction to it from many seems to prove that the Brexit wound still hasn't healed for a lot of people. Large numbers of Remainers are not reconciled to the status quo, and lots of Leavers hate the reality of getting what they voted for.
Telegraph
This weird story gets weirder and weirder, and still no one has a sane theory in place
Its not a linear scale, different is not necessarily either higher or lower.
Much EU red tape is bad policy based on protecting producer interests, with no regard to the consumer. That's awful protectionism which should be axed.
Axing protectionism that is not necessary is not a "lower" standard.
Dominic Ongwen (Uganda)
Thomas Lubanga Dyilo (DRC)
Bosco Ntaganda (DRC)
Germain Katanga (DRC)
Narcisse Arido (CAR)
Fidèle Babala (CAR)
Aimé Kilolo (CAR)
Jean-Jacques Mangenda (CAR)
Ahmad al-Mahdi (Mali)
Al-Hassan Ag Abdoul Aziz (Mali)
Lammy and the taxi was a silly man encountering some bad luck
This one...... where to begin??
Gene editing and food biotech is/was the next big divergence that could drive a big new UK industry to make up for lost EU exports but alas we may never know as I suspect the innovators will sell their nascent startups to US rivals and move to the US over the next few years as Brussels snuffs the life out of them.
"Not for EU" is an expensive arse of a thing to work - ask the industry. And the practical outcome is a whole load of producers who simply stopped selling in the UK because your "sticker" is a pile of regulatory paperwork which they decided not to pay for.
Trying hard (probably too hard), but the natural rhythm has gone.
Linking UK and EU carbon markets would help bring down energy bills in the future and enable businesses to avoid the £7 billion costs of the EU’s carbon border tax. Kemi Badenoch previously supported linking the markets and even introduced legislation to enable it when she was a Treasury Minister.
With the Tories pledging to repeal the deal, would she reintroduce the £7bn of carbon border taxes on business?
Kemi Badenoch says she will reverse the deal that the Labour government has just negotiated.
Does she accept that will mean the Conservatives would put higher tariffs on British steel exports?
This morning, the shadow chancellor said: “What we [the Conservatives] do want is greater access for our services particularly financial services and our legal services.”
Isn’t this an admission that the Conservatives want a closer relationship with the EU, and that their Brexit deal wasn’t good enough?
The odd thing about PB today is I don’t see any Leave voters complaining much at all, despite Remainers trying to find division
So unless they can frame those laws to hinder the UK but still allow EU tech to do it (that seems very hard) our pessimism MIGHT be misplaced
Even now, Max is talking about biotech in the future. Meanwhile, to guard against these theoretical future events, we erected big trade barriers to make it expensive at best and commercially non-viable at worst for our producers today. To ensure that our identical to the EU standards are kept separate from their identical to the UK standards.
Spy.
You can argue its not worth it. Others like MaxPB have provided excellent arguments why it is worth it. Thats a debate worth having.
Saying it's not viable? That's just a lie. It's viable, the fact you dislike it or find it expensive or an arse doesn't make it unviable.
Asked about Mr Johnson’s remarks, Kemi Badenoch told journalists: “Boris Johnson is Boris Johnson”.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/05/19/politics-latest-news-brexit-starmer-uk-eu-summit/ (£££)
We're holidaying near Poitiers in the summer. Any suggestions on things to see/ do / avoid? Puy du Pou and Futoroscope are on the list. What else? We're driving, so transport generally shouldn't be an issue.
Because they've been strongly signalling that for quite some time now.
https://x.com/shaunwalker7/status/1924457691134431396
“If you don’t engage in good faith we’ll have to abandon our support for your adversary” is quite a negotiating position.
Oddly Boris Johnson forgets he was pegged senseless by the EU by putting a border in the Irish Sea, something Boris Johnson said no UK PM could ever do.
What I am very glad to see is that the government has refused to trade away tech and financial regulations. I think we could have wiped 4-7% off GDP growth in the next 10 years if they had while the EU catches up to the rest of the world.
I assumed that the orange-ball thing was a reference to the Stephen Milligan story from the mid-90s. Boris's happy place as a brick-chucking journalist.
Though whether it's ever prudent for a Conservative politician to make sex scandal references is another matter.
Funny how this semi-literate hack coincidentally has the same name, as it must be quite unusual.
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1924465843724759082
"The talks have been proceeding for a little while. We realize there's a bit of an impasse here, and I think the President [Trump] is going to say to president Putin, "Look, are you serious? Are you real about this?"
Honestly, I think that president Putin doesn't quite know how to get out of the war. This is a little bit of a guess, but I think the President would agree that part of this is I'm not sure that Vladimir Putin has a strategy himself for how to unwind the war that's been going on for a few years now.
There's fundamental mistrust between Russia and the West. It's one of the things the President thinks is frankly stupid, and we should be able to move beyond the mistakes that have been made in the past, but that takes two to tango. I know the President's willing to do that, but if Russia's not willing to do that, then we're eventually just going to have to say, 'This is not our war.' "
Which is of course exactly what Putin wishes.
I think things will change there in due course. To take one example: vine diseases. We have vitis vinifera, the old classic varieties, all massively vulnerable to mildew infection and needing to be sprayed to within an inch of their lives with copper and various other nasties. Then we have resistant hybrids (or PiWis as they’re now known) with mixed reputations and limited, though growing, markets.
What we’re not allowed is gene-edited vinifera. Mildew-resistant Pinot Noir, say. Yet it would be environmentally a no brainer.
Also mid-90s.
Your proposal to add a stack of cost onto food because ideology means the following:
1. Consumers pay more for the same thing. "Tough shit"
2. Consumers find there is less product choice. "Tough shit"
3. Consumers find availability gaps because although there's stock in the warehouse, its export only. "Tough shit"
Can we do it - and have higher costs and less choice? Sure. But in the real world we're not doing it because it makes sense only to ideologues like your good self who don't have a clue how things work.
I await the Tories to go out and make the case for why the deal should be scrapped and food should be scarcer and more expensive. Will be fun to watch.
It's not surprising that they get it - as it offers one of the very few avenues for Britain to escape its low productivity, need-migration nightmare of stagnancy and social angst. Also it could save the NHS
Amazing how quick the news media move on
Sky now all about Trump's present phone call with Putin
Then its viable.
You are making the fallacy of thinking "I work in this sector so my word is gospel" when actually what it means is "I work in this sector so I have a vested interest".
The role of politicians is to balance competing vested interests. Yours is just one.
Too often politicians, especially in the EU, put vested producer interests first to the detriment of potential growth sectors like biotech, as Max has richly portrayed.
You may think this is a good idea. Argue that then. Don't claim its not viable to change (when you know for a fact it is), or that because you have a vested interest we should pay no heed to alternative viewpoints like the potential for growth in biotech and other sectors.
https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/only-a-very-petty-country-puts-its-foreign-secretary-in-a-minicab-hfh8l0b3m
https://bsky.app/profile/rolandmcs.bsky.social/post/3lpjv4p36es2l