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Wise words from a pollster – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,474
edited 6:20AM in General
Wise words from a pollster – politicalbetting.com

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,463
    First! :)
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,548
    edited 6:24AM
    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,472
    The one that particularly grates on me is “ on the doorsteps “.

    MPs can just say anything they like and peddle it as UK public opinion .
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,119
    We're likely to see some interesting polling after Starmer and von der Leyen announce Peace in Our Time.

    We can ignore the more excitable ones - people have moved on from "I'd rather eat grass than be in the EU"
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,227
    Good morning everyone.

    Nice reminder, except I don't believe "Private Polling Does Not Exist".

    A pleasant morning here in the Midlands. I feel a conversation about Japanese Loos coming on.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,577
    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    Some sort of income guarantee or provision is not a lefty idea. Milton Friedman was a supporter of a negative income tax.

    We already have a Frankenstein-mix of a minimum-income guarantee, UBI and negative income tax. Your politics might make you suspicious of such welfare - which is fine - but you're arguing against something that already exists. The point of UBI is that you sweep all that away, along with all the various perverse incentives, disability assessments, and regional inequalities.

    FWIW, I don't think idleness is flourishing, tbh. The UK has decent inactivity stats, particularly on an international and historical comparison. Our sanctions regime for UC claimants means that very few refuse work, despite the sometimes high marginal tax rate. The biggest issue is early retirees dropping out of the workforce.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,577

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    How is UBI the equalisation of incomes? Its the opposite - in paying everyone a basic income you free people. Enterprise is very hard to do these days - the costs of starting a business are prohibitive. UBI gives you the platform to actually try - you don't have to stick in the low productivity job you hate, you can be entrepreneurial and take risks.
    This is by the far the most interesting element of UBI.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,647
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Nice reminder, except I don't believe "Private Polling Does Not Exist".

    A pleasant morning here in the Midlands. I feel a conversation about Japanese Loos coming on.

    Private polling does, I'm sure, exist.

    "Private" polling leaked to a friendly journalist fails the random sample test, because we only hear the bits the leaker wants to leak.

    Besides, if it's been leaked, is it still private?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,463

    We're likely to see some interesting polling after Starmer and von der Leyen announce Peace in Our Time.

    We can ignore the more excitable ones - people have moved on from "I'd rather eat grass than be in the EU"

    The Tories still haven't moved on, at all. They still seem to think that Brexit means we can ignore the EU or somehow exist and trade just outside one of the world's largest trading blocs and not be influenced by it, or have to follow any of its rules. And that our national policy should be driven by their ideological obsessions rather than our best interests.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,041

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    How is UBI the equalisation of incomes? Its the opposite - in paying everyone a basic income you free people. Enterprise is very hard to do these days - the costs of starting a business are prohibitive. UBI gives you the platform to actually try - you don't have to stick in the low productivity job you hate, you can be entrepreneurial and take risks.
    That's the theory, but it doesn't survive contact with the enemy.

    Entrepreneurial people are highly driven and motivated. They will be happy to spin out a new business in their free time, and take risks.

    What they need is lower costs of entry, easier access to finance, less bureaucracy and regulation and access to talent. Not UBI.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,472
    I doubt the UK public are kept up at night by the issue of the UK aligning with the EU on food and agriculture standards .

    The right wing papers continue to act as if this is 2016. The right which sucked up to Trump instead of constantly whining about this EU reset might want to focus their anger at their poster boy who has done a lot to help bring the UK and the EU closer together !
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,019

    We're likely to see some interesting polling after Starmer and von der Leyen announce Peace in Our Time.

    We can ignore the more excitable ones - people have moved on from "I'd rather eat grass than be in the EU"

    You missed the guardian article interviewing the unhappy people of Thurrock
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,979
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Nice reminder, except I don't believe "Private Polling Does Not Exist".

    A pleasant morning here in the Midlands. I feel a conversation about Japanese Loos coming on.

    The relationship between private polling that occurs and private polling that is leaked to the press is like Vince Cable predicting eight out of the last three recessions
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,041
    TimS said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    Enough about the triple lock pension and winter fuel payment, what about UBI?
    No-one has adequately explained to me why there was such a big jump in welfare claimants during Covid that still hasn't returned to normal - like almost everything else has.

    I don't buy the mental health pandemic line. We all struggle with that from time to time but I think some are just struggling with the idea they might have to go back to work in a job they don't particularly enjoy and, having now left it so long after several years, are finding it hard to re-enter the workforce - thus affecting their mental health, and so forth.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,647

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    How is UBI the equalisation of incomes? Its the opposite - in paying everyone a basic income you free people. Enterprise is very hard to do these days - the costs of starting a business are prohibitive. UBI gives you the platform to actually try - you don't have to stick in the low productivity job you hate, you can be entrepreneurial and take risks.
    Which might help address the issue we have that the more you start with, the more risks you can take in life, which is usually a good strategy to achieve more.

    I guess it depends on what you think motivates people in general, and oneself in particular. For some, it is the size of the cash pile, and anything that interferes with that is a bad thing. For very many, it isn't.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,250
    FPT…

    DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! ..DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN!

    Dan Dare?
    Dan Hannan?
    Dan Air?

    We need more context
    Nicușor Dan, who has just won the Romanian Presidential election.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,041
    Eabhal said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    Some sort of income guarantee or provision is not a lefty idea. Milton Friedman was a supporter of a negative income tax.

    We already have a Frankenstein-mix of a minimum-income guarantee, UBI and negative income tax. Your politics might make you suspicious of such welfare - which is fine - but you're arguing against something that already exists. The point of UBI is that you sweep all that away, along with all the various perverse incentives, disability assessments, and regional inequalities.

    FWIW, I don't think idleness is flourishing, tbh. The UK has decent inactivity stats, particularly on an international and historical comparison. Our sanctions regime for UC claimants means that very few refuse work, despite the sometimes high marginal tax rate. The biggest issue is early retirees dropping out of the workforce.
    Lots of work is hard. It involves discipline, consistent attention, controlling yourself, an element of repetition, engaging with people you don't want to, submitting yourself to management, putting up with minor humiliations and very often doing all that for not very large amounts of money.

    It's no surprise lots of people take early retirement as soon as they can. What we can do is make work more flexible and reduce the costs of employment and tax so it's more attractive to do it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,431
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Nice reminder, except I don't believe "Private Polling Does Not Exist".

    A pleasant morning here in the Midlands. I feel a conversation about Japanese Loos coming on.

    I tried to launch one yesterday but it turned out to be just a flash in the pan.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,577
    edited 6:51AM

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    How is UBI the equalisation of incomes? Its the opposite - in paying everyone a basic income you free people. Enterprise is very hard to do these days - the costs of starting a business are prohibitive. UBI gives you the platform to actually try - you don't have to stick in the low productivity job you hate, you can be entrepreneurial and take risks.
    That's the theory, but it doesn't survive contact with the enemy.

    Entrepreneurial people are highly driven and motivated. They will be happy to spin out a new business in their free time, and take risks.

    What they need is lower costs of entry, easier access to finance, less bureaucracy and regulation and access to talent. Not UBI.
    I think it's less about such driven individuals, but rather someone setting up a coffee shop or manufacturing business in a small town or something like that.

    We have a successful small business owner in my family (c10 FTE employees) and it was the financial insecurity that put him off for over a decade. He had the cash and access to the industry ready but it was just too big a risk to make the leap, particularly with two young children.

    I think it's fair to say he's not some sort of genius or highly driven individual. Just a normal guy who should have started earlier.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,119

    TimS said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    Enough about the triple lock pension and winter fuel payment, what about UBI?
    No-one has adequately explained to me why there was such a big jump in welfare claimants during Covid that still hasn't returned to normal - like almost everything else has.

    I don't buy the mental health pandemic line. We all struggle with that from time to time but I think some are just struggling with the idea they might have to go back to work in a job they don't particularly enjoy and, having now left it so long after several years, are finding it hard to re-enter the workforce - thus affecting their mental health, and so forth.
    As always there will be multiple nuanced factors which bely the search for a simplistic solution and thus fix.

    Mental health? Absolutely. Physical health - a small number of poor sods are still beset by long Covid. But we also have the traumatic impact on the economy especially in local pockets caused by the total shutdown.

    Your point about jobs that people don't particularly enjoy is the key to not just your narrow question but the wider one about why is productivity an issue in the UK?

    An awful lot of people are economically trapped in crap jobs. They don't really have options to find an alternative, the job is crap, the employer has no interest in developing them as employees, and to make it worse no matter how hard they work the wages don't pay the bills.

    Why is productivity a problem? Why would miserable broke slaves want to work harder?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,647

    TimS said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    Enough about the triple lock pension and winter fuel payment, what about UBI?
    No-one has adequately explained to me why there was such a big jump in welfare claimants during Covid that still hasn't returned to normal - like almost everything else has.

    I don't buy the mental health pandemic line. We all struggle with that from time to time but I think some are just struggling with the idea they might have to go back to work in a job they don't particularly enjoy and, having now left it so long after several years, are finding it hard to re-enter the workforce - thus affecting their mental health, and so forth.
    The jump itself is probably understandable, and the right thing to have done. In a crisis, make sure that people don't end up destitute. See also: the COVID loans.

    What didn't happen (and I agree, should) is assertively going through those claims once all the fuss died down. That, though, would have required upfront spending on assertive support and challenge. And the government and the public are both allergic to spending upfront that pays back over a timeframe of more than about six weeks.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,227

    FPT…

    DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! ..DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN!

    Dan Dare?
    Dan Hannan?
    Dan Air?

    We need more context
    Nicușor Dan, who has just won the Romanian Presidential election.
    He's the former Mayor of Bucharest - European aligned not Moscow / Washington aligned.

    I make that a plus. And he likes trams.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,119
    Eabhal said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    How is UBI the equalisation of incomes? Its the opposite - in paying everyone a basic income you free people. Enterprise is very hard to do these days - the costs of starting a business are prohibitive. UBI gives you the platform to actually try - you don't have to stick in the low productivity job you hate, you can be entrepreneurial and take risks.
    That's the theory, but it doesn't survive contact with the enemy.

    Entrepreneurial people are highly driven and motivated. They will be happy to spin out a new business in their free time, and take risks.

    What they need is lower costs of entry, easier access to finance, less bureaucracy and regulation and access to talent. Not UBI.
    I think it's less about such driven individuals, but rather someone setting up a coffee shop or manufacturing business in a small town or something like that.

    We have a successful small business owner in my family (c10 FTE employees) and it was the financial insecurity that put him off for over a decade. He had the cash and access to the industry ready but it was just too big a risk to make the leap, particularly with two young children.

    I think it's fair to say he's not some sort of genius or highly driven individual. Just a normal guy who should have started earlier.
    Exactly the point I was making. Starting a business is a huge risk for so many people, one they're not prepared to take when the rewards can we scant. CR is right about finance and regulation and bureaucracy - all are barriers. But even if they are lower its that risk factor of quitting a job with a regular paycheque to take a leap into the unknown, hoping that it will all turn out right so that your kids don't end up on the street.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,349

    FPT…

    DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! ..DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN!

    Dan Dare?
    Dan Hannan?
    Dan Air?

    We need more context
    Nicușor Dan, who has just won the Romanian Presidential election.
    Dan

  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,349
    MattW said:

    FPT…

    DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! ..DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN!

    Dan Dare?
    Dan Hannan?
    Dan Air?

    We need more context
    Nicușor Dan, who has just won the Romanian Presidential election.
    He's the former Mayor of Bucharest - European aligned not Moscow / Washington aligned.

    I make that a plus. And he likes trams.
    Was Simion a tramsphobe?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,545
    Mr. Pioneers, what would you set UBI at, and how much would be the overall cost?

    It's easy to see the appeal of just getting money. But it needs to come from somewhere.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,041
    Eabhal said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    How is UBI the equalisation of incomes? Its the opposite - in paying everyone a basic income you free people. Enterprise is very hard to do these days - the costs of starting a business are prohibitive. UBI gives you the platform to actually try - you don't have to stick in the low productivity job you hate, you can be entrepreneurial and take risks.
    That's the theory, but it doesn't survive contact with the enemy.

    Entrepreneurial people are highly driven and motivated. They will be happy to spin out a new business in their free time, and take risks.

    What they need is lower costs of entry, easier access to finance, less bureaucracy and regulation and access to talent. Not UBI.
    I think it's less about such driven individuals, but rather someone setting up a coffee shop or manufacturing business in a small town or something like that.

    We have a successful small business owner in my family (c10 FTE employees) and it was the financial insecurity that put him off for over a decade. He had the cash and access to the industry ready but it was just too big a risk to make the leap, particularly with two young children.

    I think it's fair to say he's not some sort of genius or highly driven individual. Just a normal guy who should have started earlier.
    But then you'd have to show that the business would have started earlier had he had access to UBI and the economic cost of providing that nationally would be outweighed by more coffee shops being provided like his.

    I'm not convinced.
  • vikvik Posts: 386
    MattW said:

    FPT…

    DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! ..DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN!

    Dan Dare?
    Dan Hannan?
    Dan Air?

    We need more context
    Nicușor Dan, who has just won the Romanian Presidential election.
    He's the former Mayor of Bucharest - European aligned not Moscow / Washington aligned.

    I make that a plus. And he likes trams.
    After Canada & Australia, it's another defeat for the populist Right.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,636

    Eabhal said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    Some sort of income guarantee or provision is not a lefty idea. Milton Friedman was a supporter of a negative income tax.

    We already have a Frankenstein-mix of a minimum-income guarantee, UBI and negative income tax. Your politics might make you suspicious of such welfare - which is fine - but you're arguing against something that already exists. The point of UBI is that you sweep all that away, along with all the various perverse incentives, disability assessments, and regional inequalities.

    FWIW, I don't think idleness is flourishing, tbh. The UK has decent inactivity stats, particularly on an international and historical comparison. Our sanctions regime for UC claimants means that very few refuse work, despite the sometimes high marginal tax rate. The biggest issue is early retirees dropping out of the workforce.
    Lots of work is hard. It involves discipline, consistent attention, controlling yourself, an element of repetition, engaging with people you don't want to, submitting yourself to management, putting up with minor humiliations and very often doing all that for not very large amounts of money.

    It's no surprise lots of people take early retirement as soon as they can. What we can do is make work more flexible and reduce the costs of employment and tax so it's more attractive to do it.
    Yes, I agree.

    The other thing is to make work satisfying and enjoyable. To some degree it's the nature of the job, but it's also about having the right values and work ethic.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,647

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    How is UBI the equalisation of incomes? Its the opposite - in paying everyone a basic income you free people. Enterprise is very hard to do these days - the costs of starting a business are prohibitive. UBI gives you the platform to actually try - you don't have to stick in the low productivity job you hate, you can be entrepreneurial and take risks.
    That's the theory, but it doesn't survive contact with the enemy.

    Entrepreneurial people are highly driven and motivated. They will be happy to spin out a new business in their free time, and take risks.

    What they need is lower costs of entry, easier access to finance, less bureaucracy and regulation and access to talent. Not UBI.
    I fear this is wishful thinking. You can't tell me how "Entrepreneurial people" fee. I own several small businesses and speak to other small business owners. We are the exceptions to the rule. Many other people either try and quickly fail, or realise they can't take the risk because of their existing family financial commitments.

    Pay everyone UBI and we remove those barriers. You can take the risk of starting a business knowing that you and your family won't starve whilst it gets going. We have a productivity issue because too many people are financially trapped in jobs they don't want to do. UBI stops that, gives people the space to do what they are better suited to do, which drives productivity.
    Besides, there are different sorts of motivation. I was once sent on a "careers advice for postgrads" thing that broke it down like this:

    https://www.biospace.com/what-cranks-your-career

    Some people are definitely motivated by Getting Ahead, but many aren't. One of the underlying challenges for society is that those who want to get ahead get to the top and then shape reality to their preferences.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,041

    TimS said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    Enough about the triple lock pension and winter fuel payment, what about UBI?
    No-one has adequately explained to me why there was such a big jump in welfare claimants during Covid that still hasn't returned to normal - like almost everything else has.

    I don't buy the mental health pandemic line. We all struggle with that from time to time but I think some are just struggling with the idea they might have to go back to work in a job they don't particularly enjoy and, having now left it so long after several years, are finding it hard to re-enter the workforce - thus affecting their mental health, and so forth.
    As always there will be multiple nuanced factors which bely the search for a simplistic solution and thus fix.

    Mental health? Absolutely. Physical health - a small number of poor sods are still beset by long Covid. But we also have the traumatic impact on the economy especially in local pockets caused by the total shutdown.

    Your point about jobs that people don't particularly enjoy is the key to not just your narrow question but the wider one about why is productivity an issue in the UK?

    An awful lot of people are economically trapped in crap jobs. They don't really have options to find an alternative, the job is crap, the employer has no interest in developing them as employees, and to make it worse no matter how hard they work the wages don't pay the bills.

    Why is productivity a problem? Why would miserable broke slaves want to work harder?
    It's hard to argue against this. I'm lucky I don't have to work in such a job.

    That said, there are some who do shifts in Waitrose, Wicks, the library or down the pub who really enjoy it. But, few are supporting families full-time on that alone with no fallback.

    But jobs in social care or those front-line services jobs engaging with the most troubled parts of our society sound dire.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,577

    Eabhal said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    How is UBI the equalisation of incomes? Its the opposite - in paying everyone a basic income you free people. Enterprise is very hard to do these days - the costs of starting a business are prohibitive. UBI gives you the platform to actually try - you don't have to stick in the low productivity job you hate, you can be entrepreneurial and take risks.
    That's the theory, but it doesn't survive contact with the enemy.

    Entrepreneurial people are highly driven and motivated. They will be happy to spin out a new business in their free time, and take risks.

    What they need is lower costs of entry, easier access to finance, less bureaucracy and regulation and access to talent. Not UBI.
    I think it's less about such driven individuals, but rather someone setting up a coffee shop or manufacturing business in a small town or something like that.

    We have a successful small business owner in my family (c10 FTE employees) and it was the financial insecurity that put him off for over a decade. He had the cash and access to the industry ready but it was just too big a risk to make the leap, particularly with two young children.

    I think it's fair to say he's not some sort of genius or highly driven individual. Just a normal guy who should have started earlier.
    Exactly the point I was making. Starting a business is a huge risk for so many people, one they're not prepared to take when the rewards can we scant. CR is right about finance and regulation and bureaucracy - all are barriers. But even if they are lower its that risk factor of quitting a job with a regular paycheque to take a leap into the unknown, hoping that it will all turn out right so that your kids don't end up on the street.
    There's a reason why in my home town council jobs are by far the most popular, despite the rubbish wages. Job security and a salary in that part of Scotland is hugely important.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,634
    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    We wouldn't want a UBI now but if AI led to mass unemployment, a UBI funded by a robot tax would be inevitable
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,041

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    How is UBI the equalisation of incomes? Its the opposite - in paying everyone a basic income you free people. Enterprise is very hard to do these days - the costs of starting a business are prohibitive. UBI gives you the platform to actually try - you don't have to stick in the low productivity job you hate, you can be entrepreneurial and take risks.
    That's the theory, but it doesn't survive contact with the enemy.

    Entrepreneurial people are highly driven and motivated. They will be happy to spin out a new business in their free time, and take risks.

    What they need is lower costs of entry, easier access to finance, less bureaucracy and regulation and access to talent. Not UBI.
    I fear this is wishful thinking. You can't tell me how "Entrepreneurial people" fee. I own several small businesses and speak to other small business owners. We are the exceptions to the rule. Many other people either try and quickly fail, or realise they can't take the risk because of their existing family financial commitments.

    Pay everyone UBI and we remove those barriers. You can take the risk of starting a business knowing that you and your family won't starve whilst it gets going. We have a productivity issue because too many people are financially trapped in jobs they don't want to do. UBI stops that, gives people the space to do what they are better suited to do, which drives productivity.
    The evidence is against you, though. For every person like you, there are ten who are quite happy to use the UBI to indulge their creative passions at home.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,239
    Just seen the news about Joe Biden. The condition that took my Father. I hope he can overcome it.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,349
    It’s an awkward fact that what drives productivity growth is not generally people starting up their own businesses. Those are often some of the least productive per worker, particularly in the services and retail sectors.

    It’s very large companies that employ thousands of staff investing in process improvement and automation.

    That’s not an argument against encouraging entrepreneurship, but productivity isn’t the metric if that’s what you want.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,041
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    We wouldn't want a UBI now but if AI led to mass unemployment, a UBI funded by a robot tax would be inevitable
    It won't. The nature of employment would simply change; for example, I'd expect far more jobs in leisure.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,577

    Eabhal said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    How is UBI the equalisation of incomes? Its the opposite - in paying everyone a basic income you free people. Enterprise is very hard to do these days - the costs of starting a business are prohibitive. UBI gives you the platform to actually try - you don't have to stick in the low productivity job you hate, you can be entrepreneurial and take risks.
    That's the theory, but it doesn't survive contact with the enemy.

    Entrepreneurial people are highly driven and motivated. They will be happy to spin out a new business in their free time, and take risks.

    What they need is lower costs of entry, easier access to finance, less bureaucracy and regulation and access to talent. Not UBI.
    I think it's less about such driven individuals, but rather someone setting up a coffee shop or manufacturing business in a small town or something like that.

    We have a successful small business owner in my family (c10 FTE employees) and it was the financial insecurity that put him off for over a decade. He had the cash and access to the industry ready but it was just too big a risk to make the leap, particularly with two young children.

    I think it's fair to say he's not some sort of genius or highly driven individual. Just a normal guy who should have started earlier.
    But then you'd have to show that the business would have started earlier had he had access to UBI and the economic cost of providing that nationally would be outweighed by more coffee shops being provided like his.

    I'm not convinced.
    I'm not either, to be honest. I think some of the kneejerk reactions against it are misguided, that's all.

    First, we should take UC to it's conclusion and roll all other benefits into it. Part of the reason why we have issues with the system is because we've got halfway through that process. Then we can have a think about UBI/negative income taxes/minimum-income.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,506
    Very good, wise words indeed. Especially the MP's inbox, but naturally they have to be alert to local concerns. There was a Two Ronnie's sketch of a shopkeeper, exasperatedly telling his customer, 'There’s no demand! You're the sixth person I've told today! There’s no demand!'

    Good morning, everyone.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,239

    TimS said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    Enough about the triple lock pension and winter fuel payment, what about UBI?
    No-one has adequately explained to me why there was such a big jump in welfare claimants during Covid that still hasn't returned to normal - like almost everything else has.

    I don't buy the mental health pandemic line. We all struggle with that from time to time but I think some are just struggling with the idea they might have to go back to work in a job they don't particularly enjoy and, having now left it so long after several years, are finding it hard to re-enter the workforce - thus affecting their mental health, and so forth.
    As always there will be multiple nuanced factors which bely the search for a simplistic solution and thus fix.

    Mental health? Absolutely. Physical health - a small number of poor sods are still beset by long Covid. But we also have the traumatic impact on the economy especially in local pockets caused by the total shutdown.

    Your point about jobs that people don't particularly enjoy is the key to not just your narrow question but the wider one about why is productivity an issue in the UK?

    An awful lot of people are economically trapped in crap jobs. They don't really have options to find an alternative, the job is crap, the employer has no interest in developing them as employees, and to make it worse no matter how hard they work the wages don't pay the bills.

    Why is productivity a problem? Why would miserable broke slaves want to work harder?
    It's hard to argue against this. I'm lucky I don't have to work in such a job.

    That said, there are some who do shifts in Waitrose, Wicks, the library or down the pub who really enjoy it. But, few are supporting families full-time on that alone with no fallback.

    But jobs in social care or those front-line services jobs engaging with the most troubled parts of our society sound dire.
    Jobs like those in Waitrose and Wickes, especially a couple of days a week, really suit retirees who just want a bit of extra money and social interaction. There certainly seems to be an increase in jobs that are 12/14 hours in retail. I’d even consider one myself.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,041
    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    Some sort of income guarantee or provision is not a lefty idea. Milton Friedman was a supporter of a negative income tax.

    We already have a Frankenstein-mix of a minimum-income guarantee, UBI and negative income tax. Your politics might make you suspicious of such welfare - which is fine - but you're arguing against something that already exists. The point of UBI is that you sweep all that away, along with all the various perverse incentives, disability assessments, and regional inequalities.

    FWIW, I don't think idleness is flourishing, tbh. The UK has decent inactivity stats, particularly on an international and historical comparison. Our sanctions regime for UC claimants means that very few refuse work, despite the sometimes high marginal tax rate. The biggest issue is early retirees dropping out of the workforce.
    Lots of work is hard. It involves discipline, consistent attention, controlling yourself, an element of repetition, engaging with people you don't want to, submitting yourself to management, putting up with minor humiliations and very often doing all that for not very large amounts of money.

    It's no surprise lots of people take early retirement as soon as they can. What we can do is make work more flexible and reduce the costs of employment and tax so it's more attractive to do it.
    Yes, I agree.

    The other thing is to make work satisfying and enjoyable. To some degree it's the nature of the job, but it's also about having the right values and work ethic.
    The workplace culture matters hugely.

    I don't think I've ever disliked "the work" but I have hated jobs where the culture has been toxic or I've had a nightmare client or boss.

    The ones I've loved are where I have creative freedom and independence, and can basically make my own decisions without micromanagement, and where the client has appreciated it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,239
    Lineker, on the back of his anti semitic faux pas, to announce he is leaving the BBC today.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2025/may/19/gary-lineker-to-leave-the-bbc-next-week-after-antisemitism-row

    He won’t be short of a bob or two with his companies successful other ventures.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,119

    TimS said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    Enough about the triple lock pension and winter fuel payment, what about UBI?
    No-one has adequately explained to me why there was such a big jump in welfare claimants during Covid that still hasn't returned to normal - like almost everything else has.

    I don't buy the mental health pandemic line. We all struggle with that from time to time but I think some are just struggling with the idea they might have to go back to work in a job they don't particularly enjoy and, having now left it so long after several years, are finding it hard to re-enter the workforce - thus affecting their mental health, and so forth.
    As always there will be multiple nuanced factors which bely the search for a simplistic solution and thus fix.

    Mental health? Absolutely. Physical health - a small number of poor sods are still beset by long Covid. But we also have the traumatic impact on the economy especially in local pockets caused by the total shutdown.

    Your point about jobs that people don't particularly enjoy is the key to not just your narrow question but the wider one about why is productivity an issue in the UK?

    An awful lot of people are economically trapped in crap jobs. They don't really have options to find an alternative, the job is crap, the employer has no interest in developing them as employees, and to make it worse no matter how hard they work the wages don't pay the bills.

    Why is productivity a problem? Why would miserable broke slaves want to work harder?
    It's hard to argue against this. I'm lucky I don't have to work in such a job.

    That said, there are some who do shifts in Waitrose, Wicks, the library or down the pub who really enjoy it. But, few are supporting families full-time on that alone with no fallback.

    But jobs in social care or those front-line services jobs engaging with the most troubled parts of our society sound dire.
    And this is why I try not to dismiss the lives of others out of hand. Not sure if you have ever done those kinds of jobs? I have. I've been a general dogsbody in a supermarket. Worked in a call centre. Warehouse and Factory work.

    I was lucky in that these were my first jobs as I moved along a path towards doing something better paid. But we need all of these jobs, and its a bit of a cheek when people doing well like me and thee just dismiss these jobs and these people like they are lazy and stupid. So I don't.

    We have a significant structural problem in our economy, which is neatly summarised as "work doesn't pay the bills". Its been a problem for several decades and its getting worse not better.

    Good honest capitalists like you and I should be able to recognise the seriousness of the problem - how do you promote people to better themselves and to work harder and to seek advancement when the jobs are crap the prospects are non-existent and no matter how hard they work they still find themselves broke at month end?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,472
    edited 7:14AM
    Looks like fish gate is over . This from the Guardian.

    “Downing Street sources are confirming that a deal has been done, Jessica Elgot reports. She says the EU has also dropped its demand for the extension of the current fishing deal (agreed by Boris Johnson as part of the original post-Brexit deal – and widely seen as generous to the EU) to be pegged to the length of the deal for agrifoods.”

  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,227
    edited 7:22AM

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Nice reminder, except I don't believe "Private Polling Does Not Exist".

    A pleasant morning here in the Midlands. I feel a conversation about Japanese Loos coming on.

    I tried to launch one yesterday but it turned out to be just a flash in the pan.
    Yes - your post lead me to reflect on the accessibility of shatafs, as used in most of Asia. And it reminded me of a man called Alyn Haskey who I first heard speak at school about an initiative known as "Community Service Volunteers" of which he had one to help him, who later became a paralympian and a Church of England priest. He had cerebral palsy and used to tell a (perhaps exaggerated for the telling) anecdote about how his hand would fly out on trains of its own accord and rummage through a fellow passenger's handbag. He was always very open about all his feelings.

    I was thinking about how Alyn would use a shataf. I've debated most of the questions about accessible ablutions, but not that one (until today).

    He died in 2012. Looking him up on Youtube there's one of his poems turned into a song in Sept 2024. He obviously had an impact, as the person who made the song had only met him in 1995 as a studio volunteer, when Alyn did a radio programme where the producer would not broadcast him reading the poem because of his slight speech impediment.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itUxBY-IWyU
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,239

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    Some sort of income guarantee or provision is not a lefty idea. Milton Friedman was a supporter of a negative income tax.

    We already have a Frankenstein-mix of a minimum-income guarantee, UBI and negative income tax. Your politics might make you suspicious of such welfare - which is fine - but you're arguing against something that already exists. The point of UBI is that you sweep all that away, along with all the various perverse incentives, disability assessments, and regional inequalities.

    FWIW, I don't think idleness is flourishing, tbh. The UK has decent inactivity stats, particularly on an international and historical comparison. Our sanctions regime for UC claimants means that very few refuse work, despite the sometimes high marginal tax rate. The biggest issue is early retirees dropping out of the workforce.
    Lots of work is hard. It involves discipline, consistent attention, controlling yourself, an element of repetition, engaging with people you don't want to, submitting yourself to management, putting up with minor humiliations and very often doing all that for not very large amounts of money.

    It's no surprise lots of people take early retirement as soon as they can. What we can do is make work more flexible and reduce the costs of employment and tax so it's more attractive to do it.
    Yes, I agree.

    The other thing is to make work satisfying and enjoyable. To some degree it's the nature of the job, but it's also about having the right values and work ethic.
    The workplace culture matters hugely.

    I don't think I've ever disliked "the work" but I have hated jobs where the culture has been toxic or I've had a nightmare client or boss.

    The ones I've loved are where I have creative freedom and independence, and can basically make my own decisions without micromanagement, and where the client has appreciated it.
    The worst place I ever worked was JLR. For a successful company the levels of petty bureaucracy, meaningless middle managers and micro management was stifling. They actively managed the input rather than output. I jacked it in after a few months with nothing else to go to.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,274
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Nice reminder, except I don't believe "Private Polling Does Not Exist".

    A pleasant morning here in the Midlands. I feel a conversation about Japanese Loos coming on.

    I read that as listing "private polling that doesn't exist because it's actually numbers pulled out of somebody's arse for political purposes masquerading as a private poll" as opposed to "genuine private polling" (which does exist but isn't on this list because it actually is representative sampling).
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,472
    edited 7:18AM
    The Daily Mail can go fxck itself and its peddling of lies .

    The UK EU youth mobility scheme has been agreed and will include a cap .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,041

    TimS said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    Enough about the triple lock pension and winter fuel payment, what about UBI?
    No-one has adequately explained to me why there was such a big jump in welfare claimants during Covid that still hasn't returned to normal - like almost everything else has.

    I don't buy the mental health pandemic line. We all struggle with that from time to time but I think some are just struggling with the idea they might have to go back to work in a job they don't particularly enjoy and, having now left it so long after several years, are finding it hard to re-enter the workforce - thus affecting their mental health, and so forth.
    As always there will be multiple nuanced factors which bely the search for a simplistic solution and thus fix.

    Mental health? Absolutely. Physical health - a small number of poor sods are still beset by long Covid. But we also have the traumatic impact on the economy especially in local pockets caused by the total shutdown.

    Your point about jobs that people don't particularly enjoy is the key to not just your narrow question but the wider one about why is productivity an issue in the UK?

    An awful lot of people are economically trapped in crap jobs. They don't really have options to find an alternative, the job is crap, the employer has no interest in developing them as employees, and to make it worse no matter how hard they work the wages don't pay the bills.

    Why is productivity a problem? Why would miserable broke slaves want to work harder?
    It's hard to argue against this. I'm lucky I don't have to work in such a job.

    That said, there are some who do shifts in Waitrose, Wicks, the library or down the pub who really enjoy it. But, few are supporting families full-time on that alone with no fallback.

    But jobs in social care or those front-line services jobs engaging with the most troubled parts of our society sound dire.
    And this is why I try not to dismiss the lives of others out of hand. Not sure if you have ever done those kinds of jobs? I have. I've been a general dogsbody in a supermarket. Worked in a call centre. Warehouse and Factory work.

    I was lucky in that these were my first jobs as I moved along a path towards doing something better paid. But we need all of these jobs, and its a bit of a cheek when people doing well like me and thee just dismiss these jobs and these people like they are lazy and stupid. So I don't.

    We have a significant structural problem in our economy, which is neatly summarised as "work doesn't pay the bills". Its been a problem for several decades and its getting worse not better.

    Good honest capitalists like you and I should be able to recognise the seriousness of the problem - how do you promote people to better themselves and to work harder and to seek advancement when the jobs are crap the prospects are non-existent and no matter how hard they work they still find themselves broke at month end?
    Yes, I have done those jobs.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,647
    nico67 said:

    The Daily Mail can go fxck itself and its peddling of lies .

    The UK EU youth mobility scheme has been agreed and will include a cap .

    If it weren't Starmer in charge, one might think this was Machiavellian evil genius.

    Let the right-wing political-media complex go utterly bonkers about the impending betrayal, because what's actually agreed will look pretty reasonable by comparison.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,979

    FPT…

    DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! ..DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN!

    Dan Dare?
    Dan Hannan?
    Dan Air?

    We need more context
    Nicușor Dan, who has just won the Romanian Presidential election.
    That was a forehand conclusion once we had the turnout figures mid afternoon

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,041
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    Some sort of income guarantee or provision is not a lefty idea. Milton Friedman was a supporter of a negative income tax.

    We already have a Frankenstein-mix of a minimum-income guarantee, UBI and negative income tax. Your politics might make you suspicious of such welfare - which is fine - but you're arguing against something that already exists. The point of UBI is that you sweep all that away, along with all the various perverse incentives, disability assessments, and regional inequalities.

    FWIW, I don't think idleness is flourishing, tbh. The UK has decent inactivity stats, particularly on an international and historical comparison. Our sanctions regime for UC claimants means that very few refuse work, despite the sometimes high marginal tax rate. The biggest issue is early retirees dropping out of the workforce.
    Lots of work is hard. It involves discipline, consistent attention, controlling yourself, an element of repetition, engaging with people you don't want to, submitting yourself to management, putting up with minor humiliations and very often doing all that for not very large amounts of money.

    It's no surprise lots of people take early retirement as soon as they can. What we can do is make work more flexible and reduce the costs of employment and tax so it's more attractive to do it.
    Yes, I agree.

    The other thing is to make work satisfying and enjoyable. To some degree it's the nature of the job, but it's also about having the right values and work ethic.
    The workplace culture matters hugely.

    I don't think I've ever disliked "the work" but I have hated jobs where the culture has been toxic or I've had a nightmare client or boss.

    The ones I've loved are where I have creative freedom and independence, and can basically make my own decisions without micromanagement, and where the client has appreciated it.
    The worst place I ever worked was JLR. For a successful company the levels of petty bureaucracy, meaningless middle managers and micro management was stifling. They actively managed the input rather than output. I jacked it in after a few months with nothing else to go to.
    My main takeaway from my career of over 20 years (so far) is that most people perform very well if given clear expectations, targets, feedback and encouragement, with opportunities to grow.

    In other words, they respond to good leadership and, after a while, need little leading at all.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,033

    nico67 said:

    The Daily Mail can go fxck itself and its peddling of lies .

    The UK EU youth mobility scheme has been agreed and will include a cap .

    If it weren't Starmer in charge, one might think this was Machiavellian evil genius.

    Let the right-wing political-media complex go utterly bonkers about the impending betrayal, because what's actually agreed will look pretty reasonable by comparison.
    Pretending to the UK public that youth mobility wasn't on the table was a ploy to persuade the EU it was a concession, right? If so, at least some intelligence.

    I bet much of what is announced today was available under May's deal. Perhaps the shadow brexit secretary back then should have recommended that deal was taken. What was his name again?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,431
    edited 7:26AM
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Nice reminder, except I don't believe "Private Polling Does Not Exist".

    A pleasant morning here in the Midlands. I feel a conversation about Japanese Loos coming on.

    I tried to launch one yesterday but it turned out to be just a flash in the pan.
    Yes - your post lead me to reflect on the accessibility of shatafs, as used in most of Asia. And it reminded me of a man called Alyn Haskey who I first heard speak at school about an initiative known as "Community Service Volunteers" of which he had one to help him, who later became a paralympian and a Church of England priest. He had cerebral palsy and used to tell a (perhaps exaggerated for the telling) anecdote about how his hand would fly out on trains of its own accord and rummage through a fellow passenger's handbag. He was always very open about all his feelings.

    I was thinking about how Alyn would use a shataf. I've debated most of the questions about accessible ablutions, but not that one (until today).

    He died in 2012. Looking him up on Youtube there's one of his poems turned into a song in Sept 2024. He obviously had an impact, as the person who made the song had only met him in 1995 as a studio volunteer, when Alyn did a radio programme where the producer would not broadcast him reading the poem because of his slight speech impediment.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itUxBY-IWyU
    Very interesting. There's a lot of consequences of disability that would just never occur to most people, and every disability is different.

    I think we'll be going with a Geberit AquaClean Mera... but I seem to be on the wrong forum. ;-)
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,239

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    Some sort of income guarantee or provision is not a lefty idea. Milton Friedman was a supporter of a negative income tax.

    We already have a Frankenstein-mix of a minimum-income guarantee, UBI and negative income tax. Your politics might make you suspicious of such welfare - which is fine - but you're arguing against something that already exists. The point of UBI is that you sweep all that away, along with all the various perverse incentives, disability assessments, and regional inequalities.

    FWIW, I don't think idleness is flourishing, tbh. The UK has decent inactivity stats, particularly on an international and historical comparison. Our sanctions regime for UC claimants means that very few refuse work, despite the sometimes high marginal tax rate. The biggest issue is early retirees dropping out of the workforce.
    Lots of work is hard. It involves discipline, consistent attention, controlling yourself, an element of repetition, engaging with people you don't want to, submitting yourself to management, putting up with minor humiliations and very often doing all that for not very large amounts of money.

    It's no surprise lots of people take early retirement as soon as they can. What we can do is make work more flexible and reduce the costs of employment and tax so it's more attractive to do it.
    Yes, I agree.

    The other thing is to make work satisfying and enjoyable. To some degree it's the nature of the job, but it's also about having the right values and work ethic.
    The workplace culture matters hugely.

    I don't think I've ever disliked "the work" but I have hated jobs where the culture has been toxic or I've had a nightmare client or boss.

    The ones I've loved are where I have creative freedom and independence, and can basically make my own decisions without micromanagement, and where the client has appreciated it.
    The worst place I ever worked was JLR. For a successful company the levels of petty bureaucracy, meaningless middle managers and micro management was stifling. They actively managed the input rather than output. I jacked it in after a few months with nothing else to go to.
    My main takeaway from my career of over 20 years (so far) is that most people perform very well if given clear expectations, targets, feedback and encouragement, with opportunities to grow.

    In other words, they respond to good leadership and, after a while, need little leading at all.
    Well my career is now over but that is pretty much my takeaway too. No one goes to work to do a bad job.

    I remember an old saying, if you put a good person into a crap system, the system wins.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,979

    TimS said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    Enough about the triple lock pension and winter fuel payment, what about UBI?
    No-one has adequately explained to me why there was such a big jump in welfare claimants during Covid that still hasn't returned to normal - like almost everything else has.

    I don't buy the mental health pandemic line. We all struggle with that from time to time but I think some are just struggling with the idea they might have to go back to work in a job they don't particularly enjoy and, having now left it so long after several years, are finding it hard to re-enter the workforce - thus affecting their mental health, and so forth.
    The jump itself is probably understandable, and the right thing to have done. In a crisis, make sure that people don't end up destitute. See also: the COVID loans.

    What didn't happen (and I agree, should) is assertively going through those claims once all the fuss died down. That, though, would have required upfront spending on assertive support and challenge. And the government and the public are both allergic
    to spending upfront that pays back over a timeframe of more than about six weeks.

    Some of it is self inflicted - public sector employees insisting on continuing to do health assessments over Zoom for instance
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,041
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    Some sort of income guarantee or provision is not a lefty idea. Milton Friedman was a supporter of a negative income tax.

    We already have a Frankenstein-mix of a minimum-income guarantee, UBI and negative income tax. Your politics might make you suspicious of such welfare - which is fine - but you're arguing against something that already exists. The point of UBI is that you sweep all that away, along with all the various perverse incentives, disability assessments, and regional inequalities.

    FWIW, I don't think idleness is flourishing, tbh. The UK has decent inactivity stats, particularly on an international and historical comparison. Our sanctions regime for UC claimants means that very few refuse work, despite the sometimes high marginal tax rate. The biggest issue is early retirees dropping out of the workforce.
    Lots of work is hard. It involves discipline, consistent attention, controlling yourself, an element of repetition, engaging with people you don't want to, submitting yourself to management, putting up with minor humiliations and very often doing all that for not very large amounts of money.

    It's no surprise lots of people take early retirement as soon as they can. What we can do is make work more flexible and reduce the costs of employment and tax so it's more attractive to do it.
    Yes, I agree.

    The other thing is to make work satisfying and enjoyable. To some degree it's the nature of the job, but it's also about having the right values and work ethic.
    The workplace culture matters hugely.

    I don't think I've ever disliked "the work" but I have hated jobs where the culture has been toxic or I've had a nightmare client or boss.

    The ones I've loved are where I have creative freedom and independence, and can basically make my own decisions without micromanagement, and where the client has appreciated it.
    The worst place I ever worked was JLR. For a successful company the levels of petty bureaucracy, meaningless middle managers and micro management was stifling. They actively managed the input rather than output. I jacked it in after a few months with nothing else to go to.
    My main takeaway from my career of over 20 years (so far) is that most people perform very well if given clear expectations, targets, feedback and encouragement, with opportunities to grow.

    In other words, they respond to good leadership and, after a while, need little leading at all.
    Well my career is now over but that is pretty much my takeaway too. No one goes to work to do a bad job.

    I remember an old saying, if you put a good person into a crap system, the system wins.
    And, if you fight it, you just suffer a lot of stress and get encouraged to leave or sacked anyway with damage to your reputation.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,979
    TimS said:

    MattW said:

    FPT…

    DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! ..DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN!

    Dan Dare?
    Dan Hannan?
    Dan Air?

    We need more context
    Nicușor Dan, who has just won the Romanian Presidential election.
    He's the former Mayor of Bucharest - European aligned not Moscow / Washington aligned.

    I make that a plus. And he likes trams.
    Was Simion a tramsphobe?
    He prefers (gas) guzzlers

  • TazTaz Posts: 18,239
    Quite a shocking story from Peter Tatchell as to how he was treated by the inept Met Police, where he was arrested at the behest of the PSC for holding a sign criticising Israel and Hamas. They objected to the part condemning Hamas.

    Also the met told him if he had said ‘Hamas are terrorists’ that’s a potential criminal offence.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/peter-tatchell-hamas-metropolitan-police-palestine-solidarity-campaign-palestine-b2753082.html
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,268
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Nice reminder, except I don't believe "Private Polling Does Not Exist".

    A pleasant morning here in the Midlands. I feel a conversation about Japanese Loos coming on.

    Private polling means two different things. One is proper polling that is not made public - and this must go on all the time for commercial reasons. The second and bogus meaning is the lazy journalistic one intending to mean that parties have more and different (more triumphant, more catastrophic etc) information than the rest of us from 'private' opinion polling which in some mystical way is superior to the usual sort. This is fed to journalists who cheerfully relay it to the unwary.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,929
    Taz said:

    Quite a shocking story from Peter Tatchell as to how he was treated by the inept Met Police, where he was arrested at the behest of the PSC for holding a sign criticising Israel and Hamas. They objected to the part condemning Hamas.

    Also the met told him if he had said ‘Hamas are terrorists’ that’s a potential criminal offence.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/peter-tatchell-hamas-metropolitan-police-palestine-solidarity-campaign-palestine-b2753082.html

    WTF? That has to be a mistake as they quite literally are proscribed terrorists.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,239

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    Some sort of income guarantee or provision is not a lefty idea. Milton Friedman was a supporter of a negative income tax.

    We already have a Frankenstein-mix of a minimum-income guarantee, UBI and negative income tax. Your politics might make you suspicious of such welfare - which is fine - but you're arguing against something that already exists. The point of UBI is that you sweep all that away, along with all the various perverse incentives, disability assessments, and regional inequalities.

    FWIW, I don't think idleness is flourishing, tbh. The UK has decent inactivity stats, particularly on an international and historical comparison. Our sanctions regime for UC claimants means that very few refuse work, despite the sometimes high marginal tax rate. The biggest issue is early retirees dropping out of the workforce.
    Lots of work is hard. It involves discipline, consistent attention, controlling yourself, an element of repetition, engaging with people you don't want to, submitting yourself to management, putting up with minor humiliations and very often doing all that for not very large amounts of money.

    It's no surprise lots of people take early retirement as soon as they can. What we can do is make work more flexible and reduce the costs of employment and tax so it's more attractive to do it.
    Yes, I agree.

    The other thing is to make work satisfying and enjoyable. To some degree it's the nature of the job, but it's also about having the right values and work ethic.
    The workplace culture matters hugely.

    I don't think I've ever disliked "the work" but I have hated jobs where the culture has been toxic or I've had a nightmare client or boss.

    The ones I've loved are where I have creative freedom and independence, and can basically make my own decisions without micromanagement, and where the client has appreciated it.
    The worst place I ever worked was JLR. For a successful company the levels of petty bureaucracy, meaningless middle managers and micro management was stifling. They actively managed the input rather than output. I jacked it in after a few months with nothing else to go to.
    My main takeaway from my career of over 20 years (so far) is that most people perform very well if given clear expectations, targets, feedback and encouragement, with opportunities to grow.

    In other words, they respond to good leadership and, after a while, need little leading at all.
    Well my career is now over but that is pretty much my takeaway too. No one goes to work to do a bad job.

    I remember an old saying, if you put a good person into a crap system, the system wins.
    And, if you fight it, you just suffer a lot of stress and get encouraged to leave or sacked anyway with damage to your reputation.
    Exactly. Always best to go on your own terms. I made the mistake of hanging on in my second job for a couple of years too long. A family run plastics company. However I was young. Never made that error again.

    I retired about 18 months earlier than I planned as my boss fucked me off. I won’t be undermined. I said to my colleague when I came back ‘if he thinks you can do my job, you can have it’ and off I went and left them to it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,431

    FPT…

    DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! ..DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN! DAN!

    Dan Dare?
    Dan Hannan?
    Dan Air?

    We need more context
    Nicușor Dan, who has just won the Romanian Presidential election.
    That was a forehand conclusion once we had the turnout figures mid afternoon

    Is that a backhand compliment to the polling ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,545
    F1: Monaco's higher downforce (obviously) but has the same tyre set as Imola. If qualifying works out the same then this will be bad for Ferrari and perhaps Mercedes too.

    Two stops this year, so we'll see how that affects things.

    Just been going through the editing for ep21. Includes a Palpatine reference regarding MBS.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,979
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    How is UBI the equalisation of incomes? Its the opposite - in paying everyone a basic income you free people. Enterprise is very hard to do these days - the costs of starting a business are prohibitive. UBI gives you the platform to actually try - you don't have to stick in the low productivity job you hate, you can be entrepreneurial and take risks.
    That's the theory, but it doesn't survive contact with the enemy.

    Entrepreneurial people are highly driven and motivated. They will be happy to spin out a new business in their free time, and take risks.

    What they need is lower costs of entry, easier access to finance, less bureaucracy and regulation and access to talent. Not UBI.
    I think it's less about such driven individuals, but rather someone setting up a coffee shop or manufacturing business in a small town or something like that.

    We have a successful small business owner in my family (c10 FTE employees) and it was the financial insecurity that put him off for over a decade. He had the cash and access to the industry ready but it was just too big a risk to make the leap, particularly with two young children.

    I think it's fair to say he's not some sort of genius or highly driven individual. Just a normal guy who should have started earlier.
    Exactly the point I was making. Starting a business is a huge risk for so many people, one they're not prepared to take when the rewards can we scant. CR is right about finance and regulation and bureaucracy - all are barriers. But even if they are lower its that risk factor of quitting a job with a regular paycheque to take a leap into the unknown, hoping that it will all turn out right so that your kids don't end up on the street.
    There's a reason why in my home town
    council jobs are by far the most popular, despite the rubbish wages. Job security and a salary in that part of Scotland is hugely important.
    The issue becomes one of crowding out - because of national wage bargaining in the public sector the rational thing on an individual level is to work in the public sector. But that ends up with situations like the north east where 75% or so of the population work for the state or are on benefits. And it’s very tough for private enterprise to take root in those circumstances.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,929
    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    UBI implemented properly, like Friedman's Negative Income Tax, is a right wing solution to left wing concerns.

    It enables welfare for those who need it, without creating poverty traps of 80% to 100% plus tax rates.

    It is a solution to concerns based on the Laffer Curve. And the very, very, very real concern that many people don't work today (or won't work full time) as they're terrified of losing their benefits.

    It also means quite the opposite of equalising outcomes. It means that work always pays, and people are always better off for working, rather than working meaning HMRC takes back all the money so why bother working?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,820
    nico67 said:

    The Daily Mail can go fxck itself and its peddling of lies .

    The UK EU youth mobility scheme has been agreed and will include a cap .

    Is the cap greater than zero? If so, it’s another straw on the camel’s back that is likely to see Labour’s voting coalition collapse, perhaps irreparably.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,268
    WRT the Twyman tweet, it's all correct of course. But while betting markets are not sampling they can be used as a sort of guide to what some people who have looked carefully at the data think about the future. Just like stock markets. In that small way they differ from all the other voodoo stuff.

    For example, with Hills the 6th favourite in the list for Tory leader is someone I have literally never heard of - Mike Wood at 16/1. In the top five are one who isn't in the party and one who isn't an MP.

    All this summarises rather well the current state of the party and its prospects and is a good starting point for research.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,239

    Taz said:

    Quite a shocking story from Peter Tatchell as to how he was treated by the inept Met Police, where he was arrested at the behest of the PSC for holding a sign criticising Israel and Hamas. They objected to the part condemning Hamas.

    Also the met told him if he had said ‘Hamas are terrorists’ that’s a potential criminal offence.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/peter-tatchell-hamas-metropolitan-police-palestine-solidarity-campaign-palestine-b2753082.html

    WTF? That has to be a mistake as they quite literally are proscribed terrorists.
    The Police did say they had arrested him ‘in error’

    You would like to think it a mistake by the Met but they do have form when it comes to policing these marches.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,032
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Quite a shocking story from Peter Tatchell as to how he was treated by the inept Met Police, where he was arrested at the behest of the PSC for holding a sign criticising Israel and Hamas. They objected to the part condemning Hamas.

    Also the met told him if he had said ‘Hamas are terrorists’ that’s a potential criminal offence.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/peter-tatchell-hamas-metropolitan-police-palestine-solidarity-campaign-palestine-b2753082.html

    WTF? That has to be a mistake as they quite literally are proscribed terrorists.
    The Police did say they had arrested him ‘in error’

    You would like to think it a mistake by the Met but they do have form when it comes to policing these marches.
    Old Bill has gone woke.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,679
    nico67 said:

    Looks like fish gate is over . This from the Guardian.

    “Downing Street sources are confirming that a deal has been done, Jessica Elgot reports. She says the EU has also dropped its demand for the extension of the current fishing deal (agreed by Boris Johnson as part of the original post-Brexit deal – and widely seen as generous to the EU) to be pegged to the length of the deal for agrifoods.”

    Memo to Kemi re PMQs – don't blame Starmer for Boris's deal. Boris was one of your lot.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,239
    Okay, UBI, I’m agnostic over it, however two questions, where does the money come from and at what level is it set ? Would it be existing benefits budget repurposed and replace PIP, UBI and everything else ? Would it mean people have to pay for stuff they currently don’t have to such as prescriptions ?

    I’d be interested in any independent analysis. The only analysis I can find is from groups advocating for it.

    I am dubious of any reports in favour of it from organisations that advocate for it. Same as with the 4 day week. They would say that anyway. Marking their own homework.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,999
    edited 7:57AM
    "Biden's cancer diagnosis leaves America's top doctors stunned

    Medical experts have declared it 'inconceivable' that former President Joe Biden's 'aggressive' form of prostate cancer was not caught earlier by doctors."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-14726001/Biden-cancer-doctors-cover-up.html
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,758
    edited 7:58AM

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    UBI is the best idea anyone's come up with so far for turning ordinary people into total zombies imo.

    It is the logical end of the disastrous socialist ratchet we've been implementing for the last century, which goes:

    Limited benefits >> universal benefits >> cradle-to-grave welfare state >> minimum wage >> UBI >> total equalisation of incomes

    It is yet another lefty idea to hook everybody on the state by dishing out trillions of other people's money.

    And it would be a further nail in the already half-sealed coffins of productivity, enterprise and aspiration.

    Dependency, idleness and entitlement, otoh, are flourishing and would thrive unchecked.
    Some sort of income guarantee or provision is not a lefty idea. Milton Friedman was a supporter of a negative income tax.

    We already have a Frankenstein-mix of a minimum-income guarantee, UBI and negative income tax. Your politics might make you suspicious of such welfare - which is fine - but you're arguing against something that already exists. The point of UBI is that you sweep all that away, along with all the various perverse incentives, disability assessments, and regional inequalities.

    FWIW, I don't think idleness is flourishing, tbh. The UK has decent inactivity stats, particularly on an international and historical comparison. Our sanctions regime for UC claimants means that very few refuse work, despite the sometimes high marginal tax rate. The biggest issue is early retirees dropping out of the workforce.
    Lots of work is hard. It involves discipline, consistent attention, controlling yourself, an element of repetition, engaging with people you don't want to, submitting yourself to management, putting up with minor humiliations and very often doing all that for not very large amounts of money.

    It's no surprise lots of people take early retirement as soon as they can. What we can do is make work more flexible and reduce the costs of employment and tax so it's more attractive to do it.
    Yes, I agree.

    The other thing is to make work satisfying and enjoyable. To some degree it's the nature of the job, but it's also about having the right values and work ethic.
    The workplace culture matters hugely.

    I don't think I've ever disliked "the work" but I have hated jobs where the culture has been toxic or I've had a nightmare client or boss.

    The ones I've loved are where I have creative freedom and independence, and can basically make my own decisions without micromanagement, and where the client has appreciated it.
    The worst place I ever worked was JLR. For a successful company the levels of petty bureaucracy, meaningless middle managers and micro management was stifling. They actively managed the input rather than output. I jacked it in after a few months with nothing else to go to.
    My main takeaway from my career of over 20 years (so far) is that most people perform very well if given clear expectations, targets, feedback and encouragement, with opportunities to grow.

    In other words, they respond to good leadership and, after a while, need little leading at all.
    Well my career is now over but that is pretty much my takeaway too. No one goes to work to do a bad job.

    I remember an old saying, if you put a good person into a crap system, the system wins.
    And, if you fight it, you just suffer a lot of stress and get encouraged to leave or sacked anyway with damage to your reputation.
    I have been associated with an organisation that although I don't directly work for them can have a substantial negative impact on my business and hence my stress levels and mental wellbeing. When I first worked with them they were very hands off and supportive. It was probably the best organisation I have ever dealt with. In 2012 the leadership retired and was replaced by idiots. Not idiots that keep quiet and take their salary but idiots who decide to fix something that wasn't broken. Instead of being supportive and providing assistance they became confrontational, aggressive and bullying. All the good employees from the previous administration left or retired. They were replaced by more defensive bullies.

    Progress , I suppose.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,282

    nico67 said:

    The Daily Mail can go fxck itself and its peddling of lies .

    The UK EU youth mobility scheme has been agreed and will include a cap .

    If it weren't Starmer in charge, one might think this was Machiavellian evil genius.

    Let the right-wing political-media complex go utterly bonkers about the impending betrayal, because what's actually agreed will look pretty reasonable by comparison.
    Good morning

    Sky report the youth mobility scheme has not been agreed but there is a 12 year agreement for the French to access fishing
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,436

    nico67 said:

    Looks like fish gate is over . This from the Guardian.

    “Downing Street sources are confirming that a deal has been done, Jessica Elgot reports. She says the EU has also dropped its demand for the extension of the current fishing deal (agreed by Boris Johnson as part of the original post-Brexit deal – and widely seen as generous to the EU) to be pegged to the length of the deal for agrifoods.”

    Memo to Kemi re PMQs – don't blame Starmer for Boris's deal. Boris was one of your lot.
    She’ll walk straight into it.

    The usual caveats, we await details etc, but hopefully we have agreed something sensible with the EU that helps our economy and starts closer ties in an age where we need friends more than ever.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,317
    edited 8:00AM
    I think a culture change is needed to boost entrepreneurship — it needs to be ok to fail and getting back on the horse needs to be encouraged. This applies to both business and those out of work.


    It seems to me that there is a collective suffering in the work environment over “time served” rather than potential or skills . Business is so cautious to promote people because it’s seen as a permanent change. People need to be given the space to spread their wings and if it doesn’t work, be able to try something else. This can happen within a single business.

    /end morning rambles
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,330
    A key trouble with UBI is there isn't a single universal level of income that is appropriate.

    The needs of a single 18 year-old living with their parents after school are not the same as the needs of a 30 year-old widow with two young children and with no assets or family.

    Pretending we can have a one size fits all approach to welfare is well meaning but delusional.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,431

    nico67 said:

    Looks like fish gate is over . This from the Guardian.

    “Downing Street sources are confirming that a deal has been done, Jessica Elgot reports. She says the EU has also dropped its demand for the extension of the current fishing deal (agreed by Boris Johnson as part of the original post-Brexit deal – and widely seen as generous to the EU) to be pegged to the length of the deal for agrifoods.”

    Memo to Kemi re PMQs – don't blame Starmer for Boris's deal. Boris was one of your lot.
    I think it's too late for her, either way.

    If she'd completely repudiated the Tory legacy from day one, she might have got away with it - it would have at least have the virtue of being accurate self criticism, and would at the very least have made an impact.
    Any such move now would just be seen as giving in - and of course not doing so means defending the indefensible.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,239

    nico67 said:

    The Daily Mail can go fxck itself and its peddling of lies .

    The UK EU youth mobility scheme has been agreed and will include a cap .

    If it weren't Starmer in charge, one might think this was Machiavellian evil genius.

    Let the right-wing political-media complex go utterly bonkers about the impending betrayal, because what's actually agreed will look pretty reasonable by comparison.
    Good morning

    Sky report the youth mobility scheme has not been agreed but there is a 12 year agreement for the French to access fishing
    What a great negotiator Starmer is, makes Lord Frost seem a genius.

    If true.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,282
    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    The Daily Mail can go fxck itself and its peddling of lies .

    The UK EU youth mobility scheme has been agreed and will include a cap .

    If it weren't Starmer in charge, one might think this was Machiavellian evil genius.

    Let the right-wing political-media complex go utterly bonkers about the impending betrayal, because what's actually agreed will look pretty reasonable by comparison.
    Good morning

    Sky report the youth mobility scheme has not been agreed but there is a 12 year agreement for the French to access fishing
    What a great negotiator Starmer is, makes Lord Frost seem a genius.

    If true.
    SNP already having a go on the fishing
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,239
    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    Looks like fish gate is over . This from the Guardian.

    “Downing Street sources are confirming that a deal has been done, Jessica Elgot reports. She says the EU has also dropped its demand for the extension of the current fishing deal (agreed by Boris Johnson as part of the original post-Brexit deal – and widely seen as generous to the EU) to be pegged to the length of the deal for agrifoods.”

    Memo to Kemi re PMQs – don't blame Starmer for Boris's deal. Boris was one of your lot.
    I think it's too late for her, either way.

    If she'd completely repudiated the Tory legacy from day one, she might have got away with it - it would have at least have the virtue of being accurate self criticism, and would at the very least have made an impact.
    Any such move now would just be seen as giving in - and of course not doing so means defending the indefensible.
    I think you’re right. She’s a total dud and totally invisible. She’s making no impact and simply continuing the trend of the Tories slide in the polls. I meant to reply to a post from @TimS in Lib Dem polling. On recent polls crossover cannot be too far away.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,007
    So the Legal Aid Agency became aware that they systems had been hacked on April 23rd and some point after that became aware the data lost was more significant.

    But it is only being reported now - the heads of that agency should be heading out the door shortly because that lack of communication is not on given the data lost...
  • eekeek Posts: 30,007

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    The Daily Mail can go fxck itself and its peddling of lies .

    The UK EU youth mobility scheme has been agreed and will include a cap .

    If it weren't Starmer in charge, one might think this was Machiavellian evil genius.

    Let the right-wing political-media complex go utterly bonkers about the impending betrayal, because what's actually agreed will look pretty reasonable by comparison.
    Good morning

    Sky report the youth mobility scheme has not been agreed but there is a 12 year agreement for the French to access fishing
    What a great negotiator Starmer is, makes Lord Frost seem a genius.

    If true.
    SNP already having a go on the fishing
    Fishing is completely irrelevant - most of the industry is has already been sold to people who live offshore...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,679
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Quite a shocking story from Peter Tatchell as to how he was treated by the inept Met Police, where he was arrested at the behest of the PSC for holding a sign criticising Israel and Hamas. They objected to the part condemning Hamas.

    Also the met told him if he had said ‘Hamas are terrorists’ that’s a potential criminal offence.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/peter-tatchell-hamas-metropolitan-police-palestine-solidarity-campaign-palestine-b2753082.html

    WTF? That has to be a mistake as they quite literally are proscribed terrorists.
    The Police did say they had arrested him ‘in error’

    You would like to think it a mistake by the Met but they do have form when it comes to policing these marches.
    If you read the story, it is a bit more nuanced. There were two demos being kept apart, and Tatchell was being ‘edgy’. The police seem to have been looking at it from a breach of the peace (or whatever it is called now) angle.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,239
    That EU deal in full

    We got the E-gates

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1924364554139492704?s=61
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,142
    edited 8:16AM
    Taz said:

    That EU deal in full

    We got the E-gates

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1924364554139492704?s=61

    *EU says it will work swiftly to explore British participation in its defence fund. Language there is limited.

    We all remember the promise to explore reform to CAP...the being part of the defence fund was touted by Starmer as a big deal. Also we were told the reparations deal that was never going to happen in practice because the wording was just about exploring it...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,122

    Taz said:

    That EU deal in full

    We got the E-gates

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1924364554139492704?s=61

    *EU says it will work swiftly to explore British participation in its defence fund. Language there is limited.

    We all remember the promise to explore reform to CAP...the being part of the defence fund was touted by Starmer as a big deal.
    When will British negotiators learn not to exchange things for maybes?
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,239

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Quite a shocking story from Peter Tatchell as to how he was treated by the inept Met Police, where he was arrested at the behest of the PSC for holding a sign criticising Israel and Hamas. They objected to the part condemning Hamas.

    Also the met told him if he had said ‘Hamas are terrorists’ that’s a potential criminal offence.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/peter-tatchell-hamas-metropolitan-police-palestine-solidarity-campaign-palestine-b2753082.html

    WTF? That has to be a mistake as they quite literally are proscribed terrorists.
    The Police did say they had arrested him ‘in error’

    You would like to think it a mistake by the Met but they do have form when it comes to policing these marches.
    If you read the story, it is a bit more nuanced. There were two demos being kept apart, and Tatchell was being ‘edgy’. The police seem to have been looking at it from a breach of the peace (or whatever it is called now) angle.
    I did read the story. I’ve also read Tatchell’s feed. It is not really nuanced at all although it is not easy to read due to the constant ads disrupting the text.

    Tatchell wasn’t being edgy, he was pointing out Hamas are killing dissidents. He wants to free Gaza from Israel AND Hamas.

    The problem seems to be a significant chunk in the PSC are also pro Hamas.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,142
    edited 8:15AM
    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    That EU deal in full

    We got the E-gates

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1924364554139492704?s=61

    *EU says it will work swiftly to explore British participation in its defence fund. Language there is limited.

    We all remember the promise to explore reform to CAP...the being part of the defence fund was touted by Starmer as a big deal.
    When will British negotiators learn not to exchange things for maybes?
    Good job we have a top legal brain as PM, they would never accept such a thing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,432
    "work swiftly to explore participation"

    lol
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,217

    Taz said:

    That EU deal in full

    We got the E-gates

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1924364554139492704?s=61

    *EU says it will work swiftly to explore British participation in its defence fund. Language there is limited.

    We all remember the promise to explore reform to CAP...the being part of the defence fund was touted by Starmer as a big deal.
    Europe “oh shit, Russia is threatening us”

    UK “don’t worry, we will stand by you, put resources and money into defending Europe as we all stand together”

    Europe “ we need a fund to buy weapons as part of this defence and solidarity”

    UK “cool, well we have lots of defence manuf” Europe, “uh no, just because you are helping defend us using your military, intelligence capabilities and funding Ukraine it doesn’t mean you get anything back. unless of course you give us a load of extra things to thank us for allowing you to do a load of the heavy lifting in defending our continent and showing solidarity.”

    Twats.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,758
    Taz said:

    That EU deal in full

    We got the E-gates

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1924364554139492704?s=61

    To my mind, as someone married to someone who benefitted from the Erasmus scheme, that is a win for us too.

    Fishing, to excuse the pun, was already dead in the water after Frost and Johnson.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,142
    So I was half joking yesterday that all the UK would get is free upgraded speedy boarding....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,317

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    That EU deal in full

    We got the E-gates

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1924364554139492704?s=61

    *EU says it will work swiftly to explore British participation in its defence fund. Language there is limited.

    We all remember the promise to explore reform to CAP...the being part of the defence fund was touted by Starmer as a big deal.
    When will British negotiators learn not to exchange things for maybes?
    Good job we have a top legal brain as PM, they would never accept such a thing.
    An agreement to agree is not generally enforceable in English contract law
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