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Doing unto Others – politicalbetting.com
Doing unto Others – politicalbetting.com
“could not in conscience add to the decades-long delays many of you have already experienced due to failures to recognise the depth of your losses. Those delays have themselves been harmful.”
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In an exclusive interview with The Steamie, The Scotsman’s politics podcast, Sir John said the newly-acquired support for Labour in Scotland in last year’s general election is “vulnerable”.
He says this means Labour are more in danger of losing votes to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in Scotland, whereas in the rest of the UK most of Reform’s vote is coming from the Conservatives."
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nigel-farages-reform-is-more-of-a-threat-to-labour-in-scotland-says-professor-sir-john-curtice-5131742
The Salisbury-Addison convention won't apply.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1923301839002378506
On assisted dying does anyone know if committing suicide under this act negates any life or pension policies that the person dying may have ?
'Does life insurance cover suicide?
Yes, most life insurance policies do cover suicide. Although, it’s usually only covered if death occurs after a set period, typically 12 or 24 months from the policy start date.
If the policyholder takes their own life after this period, the insurer will usually pay out to the beneficiaries.'
https://www.gocompare.com/life-insurance/suicide/
Plus, I feel I know what they're going to say: how awful the state/ the government / the establishment is.
I am sure their Lordships would be delighted to crush Farage's peasants revolt by voting for PR so establishment politicians are better able to stitch up coalition governments themselves without populist surges to the likes of Farage, Boris and Corbyn putting populists in power with FPTP
Though I'm not convinced by the coda:
..And today MPs are set to vote on a Bill which contains a clause granting total civil immunity to any medical professional even if they have acted negligently or maliciously or breached all the law’s requirements and which removes any oversight of any possible wrongful deaths. ..
The clause gives immunity to those who have acted "in accordance with the act", which surely doesn't include "breaching all the law's requirements" ?
Sunder Katwala (sundersays)
@sundersays.bsky.social
If Kemi Badenoch had not been born British (before her parents took her home to Nigeria that month), Tory policy is it would be better for integration - after coming as a 16 year old in 1996, to have made her wait to 2011, rather than 2001, or 2006.
Why?
She stood in 2010 general election, aged 31
The polls are pretty clear now. The people have had enough of Lab and Con. They are absolutely hacked off with ALL immigration - a lot of them want remigration
The only party positioned to benefit from this is Reform. BUT Reform have one massive problem - they are entirely reliant on Farage. With him gone - and he’s not a young man - they’d be screwed
However if they can find just a couple of good, younger politicians - a Sturgeon to Farage’s Salmond - then they will be well set
My mind turns to Jenrick. He’s increasingly capable. He’s excellent on social media. He’s sharp and punchy and he agrees with Reform on the culture war issues
In return he must be tempted to defect if Reform look like winning. He’d go straight to the top (under Farage) and be the likely next prime minister if/when Farage goes
Then they need one more. A spare for the heir
Sorted
1. Her threader is as eloquent as ever - OK too prolix for some, but always articulate
2. We aren't exactly overburderned with Lady Commenters
3. She is, as I understand it, having a bit of a rotten time in and out of hospital
Manners, please, gentlemen
A great header, Miss @Cyclefree .
The two things I have most noticed about Andrew Malkinson is how the system is set up to keep people who maintain their innocence in prison for longer, and how the compensation scheme - as highlighted - is deliberately designed to be abusive to victims of miscarriage of justice.
Then we can add in the hundreds still detained in custody under the indeterminate sentences mess.
And how politicians of all parties just seek to sweep it back under the carpet.
Jenrick's best bet is for Farage to fail to become PM at the next GE and Kemi if she survives as Tory leader or Stride or Cleverly if she doesn't to also lose, then he is best placed to become Conservative leader and unite the right again. Ideally against a Labour and LD government so he has opposition to himself
Cracking piece of investigative journalism.
UK Visa Scams Squeeze Millions From Would-Be Care Workers
Recent changes to immigration policy won’t do anything for people who’ve been exploited while seeking jobs in the UK. But they may worsen the care-worker shortage.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-05-16/uk-visa-scams-squeeze-millions-from-would-be-care-workers?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc0NzM2ODE5NywiZXhwIjoxNzQ3OTcyOTk3LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTV0M1VUVUMEcxS1cwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiIwRjUwRTk4NTlCMzk0MDI1QjBBMjMyRDAwQUUwNDI1QSJ9.rQaL0jcu53Q5xTM2gBRunI4U78w5y-uyyq-jDZEnRvE&leadSource=uverify wall
The position on wrongful convictions is shameful. Both in denying compensation and in not even investigating and reversing them in a timely manner.
The case might be undermined by some recent awards for less impactful events, especially as news reports can be misleading. £30,000 for being compared to Darth Vader, for instance. There is an element of if you want to win the lottery, play the lottery.
That might change, but it isn't the case so far.
Then Jenrick is fucked and he needs to defect
Farage by then will need an heir. He's a cunning politician and presumably cunning enough to know he's gotta secure a legacy, he can only do that by recruiting younger politicians able to take over
And I'm certainly not impressed by those who wear it as a badge of honour that they can't be bothered to read the header, and go on to disparage it in the same post.
I certainly wish @Cyclefree all the best healthwise.
Yes, voters want something done about immigration but the underlying problem – still there since Brexit was no help – is their lives and their country are a bit rubbish and getting worse. They vote NOTA because Labour and Conservatives are the TA part of NOTA. And all this would still be true if the boats stopped tomorrow.
But I am very sorry for being so grumpy and accept it's my failing and my loss not reading all of the longer headers.
Perhaps excusable if it is done with great wit, but this is @Benpointer talking
Whenever I am tempted to be mean about a thread header I always remind myself: someone has written this for zero money. They are not getting paid. They sat down and took time to pen several carefully thought-out paragraphs that might or might not interest, and they did it for no financial gain. These people keep the site going
If I am not interested in a threader I simply ignore it and veer off-topic, as is traditional
It was American writer and novelist Pearl Buck (1892-1973), best known for her novel, The Good Earth (winner of the Pulitzer Prize in 1932), and recipient of the Nobel Prize for literature that wrote: “Our society must make it right and possible for old people not to fear the young or be deserted by them, for the test of a civilization is the way that it cares for its helpless members.”
Its a test that we are failing, again and again.
It's a very good test. And he has to pass it in the next few years
The sun is shining. It is a beautiful day in May. We are all alive. Things could be worse
Let's all try and be nice. OK let's all try and be nice for, ooh, 20 minutes
NHS medical negligence liabilities hit £58.2bn amid calls to improve patient safety
Public accounts committee called the record sum ‘jaw-dropping’ and criticised inaction to reduce errors in a damning report
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/may/14/nhs-medical-negligence-liabilities-hit-582bn-amid-calls-to-improve-patient-safety
The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has set aside £58.2bn to settle lawsuits arising from clinical negligence that occurred in England before 1 April 2024, the PAC disclosed.
The sum is so huge that it is the second-largest liability across the whole of government, with only nuclear decommissioning costlier, the committee said in a damning report.
“The fact that government has set aside tens of billions of pounds for clinical negligence payments, its second most costly liability after some of the world’s most complex nuclear decommissioning projects, should give our entire society pause,” said Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, the PAC chair.
“This is a sign of a system struggling to do right by the people it is designed to help,” he added...
If the Tories are in the teens by late next year either Jenrick replaces Kemi as Tory leader anyway, or Tory MPs replace her with Stride or Cleverly and Jenrick becomes heir apparent as Tory leader if they too lose and if Farage again fails to beat Starmer and become PM he can also start to pick up Reform votes
Funnily enough, there did not seem to be a line of politicians rushing to make the case for this particular change which has been slipped in unheralded.
My thesis is that the Tories might be permanently fucked. Doomed. Destroyed. We can but pray
The polls - and the recent elections - are pointing that way. What does an ambitious political man like Jenrick do then? And he is nothing if not ambitious. What's the point in being leader of the next Lib Dems? The rump of a once great party which will probably never see power again?
He must bide his time for now, but if the polls look terminal for Tories in 2027 - and great for Reform - then his best bet might be: defect. There must be many Tories thinking this, especially if they look doomed to lose their seats, as Tories - as quite a few do, as things stand
The facts are -
1) the number of visa issued collapsed from 6 digits to a few thousands. In 2 years.
2) The care industry hasn’t collapsed. Despite an epic fall in this recruitment mechanism.
3) the government website stating the numbers says this was down to increased checks. And removing licenses from companies found to be in breach.
3) BBC and others have reported large numbers of people being sold (illegally) visas that resulted in no job.
https://www.west-dunbarton.gov.uk/council/newsroom/news/2025/may/new-councillor-for-clydebank-waterfront-ward-following-by-election/
Oh, sorry. I thought you meant twenty millisconds...
Drama at Sevenoaks District Council's Annual Meeting.
First the Tory Leader's nomination for Vice Chair was defeated by another Conservative - put forward by a councillor just deposed from the Cabinet and seconded by a Liberal Democrat...
https://x.com/tonysclayton/status/1923163377653760288
Anyone know what's going on ?
Council now NOC.
Is there some weird Rule of Twelve? Or is that the lowest they've ever gone, or something?
However, you make a very good point overall. There must be a polling position which is so bad the Tories are forced to swiftly act. They are already down at 16% in some polls, which is remarkable
Single digits would certainly do it
Romania Is About to Experience Disaster
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/opinion/romania-election-simion-dan.html
It is clear that the frame of mind apparent dealing with compensation claims, in government, has not changed since Aberfan.
In the subject of compensation for {deleted} it is somewhat refreshing that it was admitted that the scale of the claims is a fiscal disaster. When you multiply official complicity x severity of the harm, you get very large sums.
On the other hand, turning a large chunk of the most disadvantaged in our society into millionaires might prove to be an interesting social experiment.
Return of the Westerlies!
Let's all be nice to @Cyclefree please.
Edited: super for Sainz in FP1, poor for Verstappen. Tempted to see what his pole odds are. They were 4 before practice started.
At stage 7 Scottish Conservative preferences split mainly between Reform and Scottish Labour and the LDs
I find your lack of faith disturbing.
https://x.com/michaelkeohan/status/1923324977475903644
As I said he would also have to wait in line in Reform, Farage if he wins next time could be leader for another decade, even if he loses and goes Tice is heir apparent and their are younger ambitious candidates in Reform not yet MPs who would also fancy their chances so Jenrick would be at the back of the queue.
Whereas if he stays in the Tories the membership would now elect him leader over Kemi and even if Tory MPs crowned Cleverly or Stride until the next GE to replace Kemi he would be heir apparent if they lost too
https://conservativehome.com/2025/03/09/our-survey-if-voting-today-conservative-members-would-just-choose-jenrick-as-leader/